搜索之死：AI时代的购物将如何运作

当前的万维网状况堪忧。互联网上大部分内容都是垃圾。我们知道它们是垃圾，但它们通过SEO优化这些垃圾内容。那么该如何净化这种现象呢？

The World Wide Web is unhealthy right now. Most of the things on the Internet are crap. And they're crap, and we know that they're crap, but they SEO optimize crap. So how do you decrapify that?

如果人们从AI代理开始购物活动，它们可以引导人们找到所需商品。

AI agents can direct people to things if people start their purchase activities there.

就像谷歌，它们某种程度上是对GDP征税。消费者支出占GDP很大比重。它们通过按点击收费获取其中一定比例。这种税收可能会转移到其他地方。

Like Google, they kind of are a tax on GDP. Consumer spending is a huge part of GDP. They get a percentage of all that spend because they're charging per click. That tax might just shift elsewhere.

为什么这个系统如此复杂？AI可以在哪些不同类型的购物场景中发挥作用？当我们考虑更广阔的市场时，我们希望看到什么？

Why is this system so complex? What are the different types of purchases where AI can play a role? And what are we hoping to see as we think about the broader market?

今天我们将探讨AI时代的商业未来。网络充斥着SEO垃圾，但当AI代理开始主导我们的搜索、购物和购买行为时会发生什么？与我对话的是a16z的普通合伙人亚历克斯·兰佩尔和贾斯汀·摩尔。我们将讨论AI如何从冲动消费到大额购物颠覆电商，以及这对谷歌、商家和初创企业意味着什么。让我们开始吧。

Today, we're talking about the future of commerce in the age of AI. The web is flooded with SEO junk, but what happens when AI agents start directing how we search, shop, and buy? Joining me are Alex Rampell, general partner at a sixteen z, and Justine Moore, partner at a sixteen z. We discuss how AI could disrupt ecommerce from impulse buys to big ticket purchases and what it means for Google, merchants, and startups. Let's get into it.

所以你们

So you guys

两位研究广告商务已有时日。亚历克斯，不如谈谈是什么启发了这篇文章，这个想法是如何在你脑海中萌芽的？

have both been thinking about ad commerce for a while. Alex, why don't you talk about what inspired this piece, how did this all germinate for you?

嗯，很久以前我创办了一家叫TrialPay的公司。实际上，我在互联网上销售商品已经有非常非常长的时间了，甚至在互联网出现之前就开始了。我当时就在思考，首先，谷歌会怎样？因为很多人都在关心这个问题。比如，搜索量是在上升还是下降？

Well, so I had started a company called TrialPay a long time ago. And, actually, I've been selling stuff on the Internet for a very, very long time, even before the Internet. And I was just trying to think, well, number one, what happens to Google? Because a lot of people, this is on their minds. So, like, is search volume going up or down?

所以我有自己的亲身体验，我的搜索量在下降，但不是关于商业的，而是明显关于非商业的一切。这是一点。但我创办的这家公司TrialPay，我们曾是全球最大的联盟营销商之一。联盟营销基本上就是你给别人发送——可以说是互联网上最古老的商业模式，它实际上比AdWords和AdSense还要早一些——你基本上能获得佣金，如果你把东西发送过去的话。

So I have my own personal experience of, like, well, my search volume is going down, but not for commerce, but clearly for everything that is not commerce. So that was one thing. But also this company that I started, TrialPay, we were one of the biggest affiliates in the world. And affiliate marketing is basically you send somebody this is the oldest business model on the Internet, if you will. It actually predates AdWords and AdSense by a bit of you just get a share of the you get a commission, basically, if you send something there.

这一切据说起源于色情行业，因为那是互联网上最古老的商业模式。比如，你怎么追踪？后来这种方式逐渐应用到商业领域，全都基于cookie和像素。你在用户的电脑上放置cookie，然后在确认页面上有一个小小的、几乎看不见的1x1追踪像素，读取cookie，这样你就知道是埃里克带来了这个客户。

It was all this was started apparently apocryphally. It came from pornography because that was the world's oldest business model on the Internet. Like, how do you track? So that eventually made its way to commerce, and it's all based on cookies and pixels. So you drop cookie on the person's computer, and then on the confirmation page, you have little, like, invisible one by one tracking pixel that reads the cookie, and that's how you know to say, Eric sent me the customer.

我们在TrialPay做的事情是，我们曾是其中最大的之一。比如，这真的会成为推动这个新商业领域的力量吗？而且它对很多事情还重要吗？因为冲动消费非常巨大。而冲动消费，几乎是不言自明的，你不会用AI来告诉你去买什么东西。

What So we did at trial pay, we were one of the biggest ones there. Like, is that really gonna be what powers this new realm of commerce? And then is it even relevant for a lot of things? Because impulse buys are huge. And with impulse buys, like almost tautologically, you're not going to use AI to tell you to buy something.

比如，你不应该买任何冲动消费的东西。你去超市，不应该在结账时买可口可乐。实际上，他们在结账时卖的价格比你在可口可乐货架上买的还要贵。所以，所有这些设计都是为了触动你的情绪，让你花钱买你本来不想买的东西。这不会是AI的作用。

Like, you shouldn't buy anything that's an impulse buy. Like, you go to the supermarket, you shouldn't be buying, like, Coca Cola, like, in the checkout line. They actually charge you more at the checkout line than they do if you just buy in the Coca Cola section. So, like, all of these things are designed to, like, tug at your emotions to get you to buy and spend money that you don't want to. That's not gonna be AI.

另一方面，这些非常非常昂贵的商品。你会用AI深入研究它们，但是，比如，有新的联盟模式。那么，你怎么进行商业和交易呢？所以，第一点是商业的本体论非常有趣。第二点是整个联盟营销的事情。

On the other hand, it's, these very, very expensive items. You're researching the heck out of them with AI, but, like, there's new affiliate model. Like, how do you then commerce and transact? So, like, number one was, like, the ontology of, like, commerce was very interesting. And then number two was this whole, like, affiliate thing.

它还会重要吗？因为这似乎是ChatGPT和其他公司正在涉足的领域。第三点是我自己的个人行为。就像我现在使用ChatGPT的频率可能是谷歌的三个数量级，这很有趣。

Is it still gonna be relevant? Because it seems like that's what ChatGPT and others are getting into. And then number three was just my own personal behavior. It's just like I probably use ChatGPT, like, three orders of magnitude more than I use Google now, which is interesting.

贾斯汀，是什么激发了你参与这篇报道/项目？你觉得最引人注目的部分是什么？

Justine, what excited you to contribute to this piece that slash, what did you find most remarkable?

有几个巨大的消费市场，其中最大的可能是像网购这样的领域。但据我们观察，迄今为止尝试用AI攻克这个市场的初创企业相对较少——尽管如亚历克斯所说，由于现在有了这些聪明的LLM和智能体，它们能帮你做出比自己更优的决策，甚至代你购物，这理应催生更多将这些技术打包成产品提供给消费者的机会。但目前涉足者寥寥。所以这篇报道部分目的是探讨更广阔的市场前景，希望相关从业者能给我们些提示，让我们了解大家的探索方向。

There's a couple really massive consumer markets, the biggest of which might be, like, online shopping. But I think we've seen thus far relatively few startups trying to take a crack at that market with AI even though, like Alex said, there's a lot more opportunity because you now have these really smart LLMs and agents that can help you make better decisions than you could have made on your own or even make purchases on your behalf, which you would think would create an opportunity for more folks to package these into products that they then offer to consumers. But we haven't seen a bunch of folks doing that yet. So I think part of this piece was to dive into, like, what do think about the broader market in hopes that, you know, folks were also who were working in this space would kind of give us a heads up and let us know, and we could hear how people were approaching it.

你可以先观察。我一向主张先观察——因为这是客观的——其次才是预测。预测很难。对了，我忘了那句关于预测未来的俏皮话，但预测未来确实非常困难。

And you can observe. I always like to, like, observe first because, like, that's objective, and then predict second. Predicting is hard. Yep. I forgot the funny quote about predicting the future, but it's very hard to predict the future.

实际上可观察的现象很多。比如我觉得'骆驼比价网'就是世界上最伟大的发明（我们与这个网站毫无利益关联，绝非自我宣传）。它就像是价格版的谷歌新闻提醒。

And, like, there actually is a lot that can be observed. And, like, that's where, like, I think camel, camel, camel is, the greatest sign in the world. We have no stake in camel, camel, camel, so this is not self promotional at all. But it's like people use this thing. It's like Google News alerts for pricing.

没错。我最近给亚马逊Prime团队做过演讲，他们非常清楚这个网站——因为它可能是亚马逊最大的联盟营销伙伴。每天都有用户说：'如果这个商品降到某价位我就会买'，这简直是经济学入门课。

Yeah. And I gave a talk to the Amazon Prime team recently, And they're very, very aware of it because I think it's actually Amazon's biggest affiliate. And people every day, I would buy this product. I mean, this is like econ 101. I would buy this product if it was priced here.

当前价格是这样，请降到某价位时通知我——因为知道后我会怎么做？立刻购买。消费者就是执行者，而这是效率极低的AI代理。如果能闭环处理，从提供信息升级到自动执行，人们绝对会接受——因为现有行为已经证明了这点。

It is currently priced here. Please let me know when it is priced here because what will I do with that information? I'm gonna buy it. So the consumer is the agent, and this is a very, very inefficient AI, right? And if you could actually complete the entire circle and say, No longer give information but allow for automatic action on information, people will do that because we have observed that behavior today.

这简直是最简单的未来预测——因为你本质上只是给现状加了个延伸附录。人们本来就会这么做，只是你提供了更便捷的实现方式。

This is like the easiest form of predicting the future ever because you're really just like you're chronically in the present. And you're just saying there's gonna be one additional appendix to the present, which people would do anyway because they are doing it anyway. They just have an easier way to do it.

我认为我观察到的现象是，有几个病毒式传播的例子，有些效果非常好，因为AI完美找到了商品，有些则糟糕得可笑，因为AI根本找不到。但 teenage girls 开始用ChatGPT上传照片，比如演唱会上的Lana Del Rey或街拍风格的Taylor Swift，然后问'她戴的这个发夹是什么？'或'这件毛衣是哪个牌子？我想找到并购买它'。效果出奇地好，因为它经常能识别出'这件毛衣售价约5000美元'。

I think my version of observing was seeing there's a couple viral examples of this, some that were really good because the AI found the product perfectly and some that were hilariously bad because AI couldn't find the product. But teenage girls started using ChatGPT to upload photos of, like, Lana Del Rey at a concert or Taylor Swift, like, snapped in a street style photo or whatever and asking, like, what is this hair Bret she's wearing? Or, like, what is this sweater? Like, I wanna find it, and I wanna buy it. And it worked really well because it often found like, hey, this sweater is like $5,000.

作为密苏里州19岁女孩的你大概率不会买这个。不过这里有些外观相似但更便宜的替代品可供选择。这个年龄段往往是各类消费行为的早期风向标，所以从研究端到实际购买——特别是当价格合适时通过代理自动完成——这种现象可能会越来越普遍，就像Alex提到的。

Like, you as a 19 year old girl in Missouri are probably not gonna be buying this. Like, here are some alternative, maybe less expensive options that look the same that you can buy. And that age demographic tends to be like a really early predictor of all sorts of consumer behavior, which is why it was, you know, this is probably going to be happening more and more from the research side of things all the way to making purchases probably agentically when prices are right, like Alex was mentioning.

正如你所说，未来可能出现极端的动态定制定价世界——比如我们在亚马逊看同款商品，但你被收取更高费用，或许因为我比你更抠门，或你更有钱。你能想象这种世界吗？

As you mentioned, a world where there's sort of dynamic custom pricing sort of to the extreme where it's like, we're looking at the same thing on Amazon, but you it charges you more because maybe I'm cheaper than you or you have more money. Do you imagine that world?

其实人们尝试过很多次。从经济学101角度看这确实很聪明——如何获取消费者剩余？消费者剩余对消费者有利，对生产者不利。

Well, mean, people have tried this a lot. I mean, the problem I think this probably it's a very smart world from an econ 101 perspective for sure. Like, how do you capture the consumer surplus? Consumer surplus is great for consumer. It's bad for a producer.

达美航空就在小范围尝试这种做法。低配版方案比如'用iPhone就该比安卓用户付更多钱，因为iPhone更贵'——这等于宣告你的需求弹性与穷人不同。我估计会面临监管挑战，或招致消费者强烈反感，但确实有人尝试过。不过通常很难得逞。

And apparently, Delta is doing this a little bit where they were trying to do this. I mean, there are, like, the poor man's versions of this, which are like, If you have an iPhone, you should get charged more than if you have an Android phone because, like, iPhones are more expensive. Like, you have basically communicated that your elasticity elasticity of demand is different than somebody who has less money. I think probably you're gonna run into regulatory challenges with that, or certainly you will run into, like, very, very high levels of unpopularity with your customer base, but people have tried this. But generally, it's hard to get away with.

没错。在深入讨论前，让我们回顾下以往的平台转型。目前电商仅占零售总额16%。如果二十年前预测电商占比，我们可能认为会高得多。为何现实并非如此？

Right. Let's reflect on on previous platform shifts before getting into this one. Right now, e commerce is 16% of total retail sales. If we were, you know, talking twenty years ago and predicting, you know, what percentage of commerce would be e commerce, we would probably think it's much higher. Why hasn't that been the case?

事实证明即时性需求曲线与非即时性完全不同。尽管隔夜送达很酷，但'我现在就要牙膏，因为睡前发现用完了——哦街角有Walgreens，直接去买'这种即时需求，亚马逊再厉害也没法在早上7点...

It turns out the demand curve is different for immediacy versus non immediacy. So even though, like, overnight shopping is pretty darn cool, instantaneous one second shopping is like, I need toothpaste right now because I'm going to bed and I want to brush my teeth and I just ran out. Oh, there's a Walgreens over there. I'm going go there and buy toothpaste. And Amazon's awesome, but getting the toothpaste at seven a.

M，就好比，我对那个没有需求。那不在需求曲线上。实时牙膏是有需求曲线的，那是其中一部分。另一部分更像是，我无聊了。

M, it's like, I don't have demand for that. Like that's not part of the demand curve. There is demand curve for like real time toothpaste. That's part. The other part is just like, I'm bored.

比如，我今天该干嘛？我知道我会去购物中心。而且，那种体验本身也是一种需求。这有点冲动消费的意思，但即便是那些长期考虑购买的物品，或者我们讨论过的RP所说的抱负型消费——比如我可能会多瞄几眼那块劳力士，哦，我刚拿到奖金。

Like, what do I do today? I know I will go to the shopping mall. And, like, there's the experience of doing that. And it's like, that's kind of a little bit more impulsive, but even it's like, oh, there are these, like, these long term considered purchases, or we talked about in RP's aspirational purchases. Like, maybe I'm gonna gawk at that Rolex a little bit more and, oh, I just got my bonus.

说不定我就买下了。但这些都是消费体验的一部分。所以广义上我认为就是这两类。我在Wise公司担任董事，他们的产品是汇款业务。

Maybe I'll go buy it. But it's all part of the experience. So I think those are kind of broadly speaking the two. I mean, I've seen this. I'm on the board of a company called Wise, and the product is sending money.

事实证明，实时到账的汇款市场与两天后到账的市场截然不同。因为有时候两天后到账的服务就是需求较少。亚马逊已经证明了这点——随着物流提速，电商早期需要两周送达的商品，现在需求曲线不断扩展也不足为奇。反倒是你说只有16%？这有点出乎意料。

And it turns out that the market for sending money where it is received in real time is just much, much different than the market for sending money where it is received two days later. Because someday sometimes it's just like the two days later send thing is just like less demand for that. And again, Amazon has proven this as shipping has become it's like once upon a time, like, when you go back to the early days of e commerce, you would get something in like two weeks. So it's almost not surprising that the curve has just, like, continued to expand. It's almost surprising that it's only, you said, 16%?

是啊，这个数字看起来太低了。

Yeah. That seems very low.

我认为实际比例更高。我不是质疑你的研究数据，但我觉得很多行为是线上调研后线下购买。特别是大件商品，比如我需要新笔记本时——

I think it's higher. So I'm not doubting your research Here's on the why I think it's higher. I think there's a lot of behaviors where people do research online and then purchase in person. Like, especially for big sorts of purchases or even like sometimes I'm like, hey. I need a new laptop.

我会在Reddit、Instagram或苹果官网做足功课，但最终会去实体店感受：Pro和Air的重量差到底有多大？服装购买也是典型例子——我在旧金山，很多人会网购大量衣服试穿后退货，因为附近大商场少。但我在俄勒冈长大，那里网购大批衣服再退回就不太合理。

I'm gonna do, like, all of the research on, like, Reddit or on Instagram or on the Apple website. But then I'm gonna, like, go into the store and feel like, okay, what is actually the difference in, like, the pro weight versus, like, the MacBook Air weight? Right? And so I think there's a lot of those sorts of things where, like or buying clothes is another great example where, like, I live in SF, so a lot of people will just order a ton of clothes, try it all on, and then send a ton of it back because there's not a lot of big stores near us. But I grew up in Oregon, and there, like, it doesn't make a ton of sense to order a ton of clothes online and send them back.

当周围五到十分钟车程内就有这么多服装店时，这种效率确实不高。但很多人会先在网上研究该去哪家店、想找什么具体商品或购买什么风格。所以我认为，大约16%的交易是完全在线完成的。但即便在其他许多购买中，也总会有某种线上调研的环节。

It's just inefficient when there's so many clothing stores that are like a five to ten minute drive from you. But a lot of people will kind of do research about where to go or what specific items they're looking to find or like what style they're looking to buy online. So I think, yeah, it might be like 16% are like fully transacted online. But I think they're even in a lot of those other purchases, there is some sort of online research component.

其实这个话题下最棘手的就是归因问题。没错，这简直是所有人的噩梦——比如贾斯汀买了台MacBook，我该怎么分配各渠道的功劳？互联网上最具腐蚀性的商业模式，我认为就是这种'末次点击归因'，把100%功劳都归给最后那个点击。

Well, this is actually the hardest thing that's related to this topic is attribution. Yeah. It's it's the bane of everybody's existence, which is like, okay, How do I how do I allocate attribution for Justine's MacBook sale? And, like, the most the most the the most kind of pervasively corrosive business model, I think, on the Internet is this, like, last click attribution. So you allocate 100%.

就像：部分功劳是因为我在Reddit上看到篇启发性的帖子，部分是因为超级碗期间看到的酷炫广告。当然可以采用更精确的碎片化归因方式，但这毕竟不是完全确定性的方法。

It's like, okay. Part of it was, like, I read this post on Reddit that kind of inspired me. Part of it was I saw this really cool ad at the Super Bowl. Yeah. You could do this, like, kind of piecemeal, which is probably the more accurate way of doing it, but it's not exactly deterministic.

而那个看似确定实则错误的逻辑是：'哦，最后给我点击链接的那个渠道才该得到奖励'。很多分不清相关性和因果关系的人都会掉进这个陷阱——这是全世界我最痛恨的商业模式。比如Honey插件，你知道Honey吧？它到底在干什么？

And the thing that feels deterministic, which is actually incorrect, is it's like, oh, whoever sent me the click last is the one that I should And reward with the a lot of people that just don't understand correlation versus causation fall into this trap where this is the business model that I hate the most in the entire world. Like, the things like Honey. You know Honey, right? Yeah. So what is that doing?

当你在商品页准备结账时，它突然跳出来问：'要优惠码吗？'废话当然要啊，谁不想要折扣？

It's like you're already on the webpage about to purchase. And then it's like, Do you want a coupon code? Oh, why? Yes, I do. Why would I not want a coupon code?

点击'立享9折'后，它会把你重定向到联盟营销页面，往你电脑塞个cookie，

10% off, click here. You go click here. What does it do? It redirects you to an affiliate page. It puts a cookie on your machine.

再跳转回原页面，就这样窃取了全部归因功劳。有趣的是，如果你问大型电商的市场人员（亚马逊就很聪明，他们从不搞这套），他们会说'Honey是我们最佳渠道，增长势头惊人'。

It redirects you back to the page that you were just on, and then it actually steals that attribution. And what's funny is if you talk to a lot of the marketing people at these larger e commerce companies, and Amazon is very smart. They're not that's why they don't do any of this stuff. They're like, oh, our best channel by far is Honey. Like, they're growing so much.

比如RetailMeNot，那是最早的一个。它上市了，估值很高。但这其实就是盗窃行为。但这只是因为，再次强调，我该如何确定如何进行归因？在AI世界里，这个问题只会变得更加复杂，就像Justine可能在Reddit上做了研究，看了超级碗，做了所有这些事情，然后在ChatGPT上提问一样。

Or RetailMeNot, that was the original one. It went public, you know, big valuation. And it was just theft. But it's just because, again, like, how do I figure out how to do attribution? And this is only gonna get more complicated in the AI world where, like, it might be the same thing, where it's like Justine might have researched on Reddit, saw the Super Bowl, like, did all of these things, asked a question on ChatGPT Yeah.

然后点击购买。苹果公司说‘哦，ChatGPT，我们应该把促成这次购买的全部功劳都归给你’其实是不对的。不，不是这样的。它确实起到了一部分作用，但并没有促成这次购买。

And then clicked purchase. And it actually is incorrect for Apple to say, Oh, ChatGPT, we owe you the entire that drove the purchase. No, didn't. Yeah. It's part of it, but it didn't drive the purchase.

弄清楚并解开归因的问题是非常非常困难的。

And figuring out and disentangling attribution is very, very hard.

让我们也回顾一下这个类别。看起来大赢家一直是那些聚合平台，比如Shopify，或者显然是亚马逊，还有一些独立的大品牌，比如Allbirds或Casper。它们似乎很快就获得了大量收入，但没有成为同样持久的业务。没有随着规模的扩大而变得更好。Alex，你能就这个类别整体以及为什么会这样发展反思一下吗？

Let's reflect back on the on the category as well. It seems like the the big winners have been the the aggregator level, it's sort of Shopify or, obviously, Amazon and sort of the individual, you know, big brands like, I don't know, Allbirds or or Casper. It seems like they were quick to to get a lot of revenue but didn't become, you know, durable businesses in the same way. Didn't get, you know, didn't get better as they as they scaled. Why don't you reflect, Alex, a bit a bit on the on the category in general and why it's played out that way?

嗯，我的意思是，归根结底，如果这是一次性交易，你并没有真正制造产品。比如，Casper并没有制造床垫。对吧？可能是中国的一些OEM厂商制造的床垫，他们贴上自己的小标志，称之为Casper。

Well, I mean, ultimately, if it's a one and done transaction, you don't really make the product. Yeah. Like, you know, Casper didn't make the mattress. Right? Like, there's probably some OEM in China that made the mattress, and they put their little logo and they called it Casper on it.

那么他们只是在谷歌和Facebook上购买流量。所以实际上，谷歌和Facebook才是真正的赢家，比其他任何人都多。然后人们会说，哇，床垫，这是一个非常好的类别。我也应该做这个。

Well, then they're just buying they're buying traffic on Google and Facebook. So actually, Google and Facebook were real victories there, more so than anybody else. And then people are like, wow, mattresses. That's a really good category. I should do that.

哦，我要去深圳或哪里。我要去找，我要把我的标志贴上去。我要在价格上比他们低。这就是总会发生的事情。如果你至少能定期收费，可以在一定程度上缓解这个问题。

Oh, I'm gonna go to Shenzhen or wherever. Like, I'm gonna go find I'm gonna slap my logo on it. I'm going to undercut them on price. And that's what always happens. And it's one thing of you can ameliorate this to a certain extent if at least you have recurring billing.

就像，我遇到了这个问题。想想Dropcam做了什么，如果你还记得的话。那是个电商产品，但至少它绑定了一个订阅服务。现在有90亿台摄像头做着完全相同的事。可以说，这个品类即使随着市场需求扩大，实际上却变得更糟了。

It's like, I'm to have this problem. Think about what Dropcam did, if you remember that. That was an e commerce product, but at least it was attached to a subscription. So now there are 9,000,000,000 cameras that all do the exact same thing. Like, that category has arguably gotten worse even as the the category has expanded or, like, the demand has expanded.

但至少，谷歌拥有收购了Dropcam的Nest，他们可能仍从这个品类赚很多钱。而Casper呢，如果我五年前买了他们的床垫，现在还在用。他们得不断寻找新客户。同时，当初生产床垫的工厂现在把同款卖给5000家其他厂商，这商业模式实在糟糕。总之，单纯做商品转销商有问题——很多人会说Casper床垫、Allbirds鞋子是独家产品。

But at least, like, you know, Google owns Nest, which bought Dropcam, like, they probably still make a lot of money on that category. Whereas Casper, if I bought a Casper mattress five years ago, I'm still sleeping on it. And like, they have to find new people to sell that mattress to. And meanwhile, the original factory that was making the mattresses is now selling the exact same mattress to like 5,000 other manufacturers, and it's just like not a good business model. So in general, just being a commodity reseller of products, and like, I think this is the problem, like a lot of people will say, Oh, well, like Casper is its own mattress, Allbirds is its own shoe.

但实际上他们通常不生产这些产品，是其他人在生产。互联网1.0时代发生的事很明显：商品转销商的长尾消失了，因为地理位置不再重要。过去零售业的核心驱动力在于——比如俄勒冈州贾斯汀镇有家店，虽然你可以去更远的地方，但自然就会选择这家店。

But like, they're not normally making these products. Like, there's somebody else that's making the product. Because it's almost obvious, like, what happened during Internet one point zero, the long tail of commodity resellers went away because location no longer mattered. Because a lot of what really drove retail for the longest time was that, like, in Justine's Town in Oregon, like, there's this store, and like, you could drive like somewhere else, but that's really far away. So of course, you're going to go to this store.

现在通过互联网可以去任何店铺。如果有5000家不自主生产的店铺都在卖耐克同款鞋，这毫无意义。你应该直接去耐克官网，或选择物流最快、服务最好的店铺。商品零售商的长尾效应基本消亡了，我们目睹了这个过程。但第一方电商体验也没好多少，因为行业准入门槛实在太低。

Now the internet, you can go to any store. So if there are like 5,000 stores that don't make their own products, and they all sell the exact same shoe from Nike, that doesn't make sense. You should either go to Nike directly, or you should go to the one store that has the fastest shipping, the best service, whatever, and the long tail of commodity retailers basically started dying. And we saw this play out. But the first party commerce experience is not that much better either because it's like the actual there's no barrier to entry.

如果没有准入门槛，在资本主义体系下这对消费者有利，但对那些n值很大的生产商——或者说非生产商，只是产品营销商——就不太妙了。

And if there's no barrier to entry, then that normally doesn't It works out great for the consumer in capitalism. It doesn't work out great for that you know, one of n where n is quite large producers of of or nonproducers, but just marketers of the product.

我认为真正的消费品尤其如此——床垫可能更算实用品，但像Allbirds鞋子或化妆品这类非常依赖潮流，特别是在互联网时代。没有产品能长期保持热度，比如Allbirds某年爆火，次年就变成复古阿迪达斯，现在又流行On跑鞋。看今年阿拉巴马大学迎新季的抖音，每个女孩都穿On跑鞋，而去年全是日系风格的新百伦。

I think there's also especially with, like, true consumer products, and I would consider a mattress maybe more of a utility product, but with, you know, shoes, like Allbirds or makeup, is very trend based, especially with the Internet. Like, nothing stays that hot for that long. Like, you know, Allbirds is the big shoe one year, and then the next year, it's the retro Adidas that everyone's going back to. And now it's like the on running shoes. Like, was watching the the Bama Rush Rorty TikToks this year, and like every single girl has the on running shoes, whereas last year, they all had the the New Balance, like, cool look from Japan.

这对Allbirds就是问题，对吧？你无法捕捉所有潮流趋势。你只有单一或少量SKU，而Shopify和亚马逊却能顺应任何趋势，让需求流向特定SKU。在AI时代这会是个有趣挑战——如果人们通过AI代理发起购买，它可能引导消费流向，这对单一SKU零售商既是机遇也是挑战。我猜最终更有利于聚合平台。

And if you're all birds, like, that's a problem, right? Because you can't capture all of the trends. Like, you have your kind of one SKU or multiple SKUs across one style, whereas like the Shopify's and the Amazon's can kind of ride whatever the trend is and have demand come to those individual SKUs, which I think is gonna be an interesting challenge in the age of AI too, because you could argue that AI agents can direct direct people to things if people start their purchase activities there, which which could be an opportunity or a challenge for, the single SKU retailers. My guess is it'll still end up being more of a positive for, like, the aggregators.

此外，我认为AI很难——恕我直言——去‘灌输需求’。是的。就像，我怎么知道那双鞋很酷？这就像，我需要看到那个品牌。对。

Also, I think it's gonna be very hard for AI to, for for lack of a better term, inculcate demand. Yeah. Which is like, how how do I know that, like, the on shoe is cool? It's like, well, I need to see that bama. Yeah.

比如，

Like,

我只是会发给你一些。

it's just I'll send you some.

是的。我我知道。我发过——我是说，我需要你。我指的是，这是个比喻性的‘我’。对吧？

Yeah. I I know. I've sent I I meant, like, I need you. I I mean, it's a metaphorical I. Right?

就像，一旦我看到——哇，我也应该拥有那个。对吧？我在姐妹会里，我想要那双鞋。

It's like, once I see oh, wow. I should have that too. Right? I'm in a sorority. I want that shoe.

所以，是的。这对AI来说很难做到。这就是为什么，它的实用部分就像是，我知道我想要什么，现在帮我买这个。这看起来很简单，因为谷歌很多做的就是这种事。

So Yeah. And it's very hard for AI to do that. So which is why, like, the utility part of it's like, well, I know what I want. Now buy this for me. Like, that seems like a no brainer, because that's a lot of what Google does.

比如，谷歌——我是说，我非常尊重那家公司，但他们有点像GDP的税收。对吧？很多GDP的产生，很多是商业活动，对吧？消费者支出占GDP的很大一部分。

Like, Google I mean, I respect the hell out of that company, but they kind of are a tax on GDP. Yeah. Right? It's like a lot of GDP happens, a lot of that is commerce, right? A lot of consumer spending is a huge part of GDP.

你从哪里开始这段消费旅程，通过那个小巧可爱的搜索框？然后他们会从中抽取一定比例的支出，因为他们按点击、展示或行动收费。所以这某种程度上是岌岌可危的。就像税收可能会转移到其他地方。

Where do you start that spending journey with that little nice little search box? And then they get a percentage of all that spend because they're charging per click or per impression or per action. So that is somewhat imperiled. Like that tax might just shift elsewhere.

是的。现在让我们详细展开这部分内容。我们要探讨的是，谷歌将会失去哪些东西？哪些东西会保留下来？我还想进一步了解与电子商务相关的不同类型消费者支出。

Yeah. Let's flesh out the piece now. Let's get into, you know, what are some of the things that are gonna be taken away from Google? What are some of the things that are gonna stay? I wanna also also wanna get into the different kinds of consumer spend as it relates to e commerce.

也许，亚历克斯，你想先开始吗？

Maybe, Alex, do you wanna start with you?

是的。我是说，我认为谷歌一直是经典的免费增值商业模式典范，他们打造了一个更好的搜索引擎。这是众所周知的。它始于1998年，当时好像是第四十七个搜索引擎之类的，哦，这不会成功的。但它之所以如此出色，是因为它们的链接方式。

Yeah. I mean, I think Google has been the canonical freemium business model forever, which is they built a better search engine. Everybody knows that. It started in 1998, and there was like the forty seventh search engine or something, oh, this isn't going work. But it was just so much better because of the way that they linked it.

这实际上可以追溯到类似研究的东西，就像是用于查找事物的h指数。哦，当你搜索百吉饼时，每个人都会超链接到某个网站。那个网站肯定有很高的页面排名。让我们先展示那个。但在谷歌起步时，大多数搜索都是因为当时互联网上的商业还相当初级。

It really kind of goes actually back to like research, which is like it's kind of like the h index, for finding things. Oh, everybody like, when you search for bagel, everybody, like, hyperlinks to, like, this one site. Like, that must have a high page rank. Like, let's go show that first. So but most of the searches when Google started because commerce was actually quite nascent on the Internet at the time.

就像，一切都是免费的。都是信息类的。我记得谷歌刚推出时使用它，感觉比HotBot和其他所有搜索引擎好太多了。那时一切都是免费的，没有盈利。他们最终基本上是复制了Overture的商业模式，这是比尔·格罗斯提出的。这是Idealab公司的一部分，后来成为了雅虎的一部分。

Like, it was all free. Was It all kind of inform I remember using Google when it first came out, and it was like, oh, this is so much better than hot bot and all the other things out there. It was all free nonmonetizing. They eventually basically copied the Overture business model, which this guy Bill Gross came up with. This was a Idea Lab company that eventually became part of Yahoo.

这就是为什么雅虎最终拥有谷歌的一部分股份，如果你了解整个历史的话。而让谷歌成为这个，你知道的，价值2万亿美元的巨头的全部原因就是AdWords。实际上，它很酷的一点在于，有很多免费增值商业模式让人感觉，啊，我不想为此付费。但在这里，虽然是免费增值，但将相关的付费搜索结果与有机搜索一起展示，反而让搜索变得更好。比如，如果我搜索网球拍，而有人还没学会如何优化页面排名或SEO优化，能在这里展示广告对他们来说非常有用。

This is why Yahoo ended up owning part of Google, if you know the whole history. And the entire thing that made Google this, like, you know, giant $2,000,000,000,000 company was AdWords. Like and actually, the cool thing about it is that there are a lot of freemium business models where it's like, Ah, I don't want to pay for it. Here, it was freemium, but actually having relevant search results that are paid alongside search that is organic made the search better. Like, if I'm searching for tennis racket and somebody hadn't figured out how to page rank optimize and everything else or SEO optimize, it was very useful for them to be able to show ads here.

那时除非人们点击广告，否则这些广告不会显示，因为相关性从来不是预先注定的。就像如果人们点击它，它就是相关的；如果不点击，就是不相关的。所以谷歌一直是免费增值模式。现在这一点正在得到印证，它依然是免费增值的。

And then those ads wouldn't show up unless people clicked on them because the relevance was never like preordained. It's like if people click on it, it's relevant. If people don't click on it, it's not relevant. So Google has always been freemium. And that's kind of bearing out right now, which is like, you know, it's still freemium.

比如，你会搜索大量没有购买意图的内容。但偶尔，这是你的默认行为——你会想‘我好奇X是什么’，然后去谷歌搜索。有时你甚至不去谷歌，而是用Safari，因为苹果每年通过将所有这些搜索导向谷歌赚取数百亿美元。

Like, you search for lots and lots of things with no intent to buy. But every now and then, it's like, this is your default behavior. It's like, I wonder about X. You go to Google. Or sometimes you don't even go to Google, you go to like Safari because Apple makes tens of billions of dollars a year by sending all of those searches to Google.

所以当前的情况是，他们开始失去部分免费用户，但并未流失付费用户，对吧？他们正在丢失一些信息类查询，比如‘1977年奥斯卡奖得主是谁’——这不是可盈利的查询，但却是你想知道的。现在人们会直接问ChatGPT，而且确实在这么做。ChatGPT拥有...我想想，是多少来着？

So what is currently happening is they are starting to lose some of the free, but not any of the imium, right? They're losing some of these informational queries, like who won the Oscar in 1977. Like, that's not a monetizable query, but like, that's what you're going to want to know. You're gonna just ask ChatGPT, and people are doing this right now. And ChatGPT has, you know, I think what is it?

8亿周活跃用户？一个极其庞大的数字。这就是他们的现状，因为他们并非在购买ChatGPT服务——我们知道OpenAI正在尝试构建商业体系，显然尚未完成，所以目前还没有直接购买行为。

800,000,000 weekly active users? A huge, huge number. That's what they're doing with it because they're not buying ChatGPT. We know that because OpenAI is trying to build commerce. So, like, clearly, they haven't built it yet, so, like, they're not buying directly in there.

但对于‘增值’部分，即免费增值模式中的付费环节，谷歌仍在持续。我怎么知道？查看财报就知道了——他们的财务数字仍在增长，尽管搜索量实际在下降。既然收入没减少，他们到底在流失什么？

But for the Immium, right, the premium part of the freemium, that is happening in Google still. And like how do I know that? Well, I can look at their financials. And like their financials, like the numbers are still going up, but we also know that search volume is actually going down. So what are they losing if they're not losing revenue?

他们可能只是开始流失部分免费搜索。不确定的是，也许其中一些被导向了Gemini。但我觉得可能性不大。目前的情况是：付费使用谷歌的用户毫无变化，只是将免费AI需求转向了其他平台。

They're only starting to potentially lose some of the free searches. Maybe they're what I don't know is maybe they're directing some of those to Gemini. But I think that's unlikely. I think right now what's happening is it's like people are using paid for Google, no changes at all. They're just going elsewhere with AI for free.

我认为部分原因在于，像所有语言模型（但以ChatGPT为例，因用户最多），都存在一个令人头疼的缺陷——产品推荐时的幻觉问题，几乎所有尝试用它做购物咨询的人都遇到过。比如你可能有这样的设想：‘我要买条瑜伽裤，去谷歌或亚马逊搜索排名靠前的商品。但我真正想知道的是：针对我这种特定类型的徒步活动，结合天气预报，究竟哪款最适合我的需求？’

I think part of probably why that's been happening is, like all LMs, but I'll use ChatGeeBT as the example because the most people use it, had this really unfortunate and annoying problem of hallucinating around product recommendations that basically everyone experienced if you tried to use it for that. Like, I think you have this grand idea of like, okay, I want to buy a pair of leggings and I'm going to go search in Google or I'm going go search in Amazon. And then like, I'm going to get the highest ranked pages. But what I really want to know is like, I'm doing this specific type of hiking and this is what the weather is going to be like. And I want to know specifically for my needs, like, what is the best legging?

它可能不是总体上最好的紧身裤，对吧？我看到很多年轻人，尤其是年轻女性尝试这样做，她们觉得很棒，可以去找ChatGPT，它能用自然语言接收我所有的信息，给出推荐，列出产品。然后她们会发现，它推荐的很多产品要么不存在，要么曾经存在但现在已经没有这种款式了，或者价格与它说的相差甚远。我想这让很多尝试过的人又回到了谷歌或亚马逊搜索，等待ChatGPT解决这个商业问题。我的看法是，正如我们所知，OpenAI正在开发商业功能，试图更深入地整合到体验中，提供真正相关且实时的产品信息。

It might not be the best overall legging. Right? And so a lot of people, I think especially I saw a lot of young women trying this, were like, great, I'll go to ChatGPT, it can take all my information in natural language, it can make a recommendation, it can spit out products. And then they would find that a lot of the products it recommended did not exist or previously existed but did not exist in a current form or the amount that they were charging was way different than it said, which I think drove a lot of people who experimented with it sort of back to, you know, I'm gonna return my searches to Google or Amazon and and wait until ChatGPT figures out this commerce thing. My take is people are like, as as we know, OpenAI is working on commerce and they're trying to integrate it more into the experience and have actually like real relevant

直到

up to

最新的产品信息。谷歌可能会面临失去一些查询的风险，但我完全同意亚历克斯的观点，目前我们还没有看到这种行为在任何规模上出现。

date information on products. Google will probably be at risk of losing some queries, But I totally agree with Alex that we have not really seen that behavior at any sort of scale today.

目前互联网最大的问题，我认为——我记得和约翰·利利谈过，他是早期Firefox的CEO，也是早期网络的坚定支持者——互联网或者说万维网现在是不健康的。它不健康的原因在于，许多曾经属于开放互联网的东西，比如从DARPANET到ARPANET，再到后来研究人员使用的互联网，那时一切都是开放的，没有围墙花园的概念。搜索已经被分割了，顺便说一句。

Well, the biggest problem right now for the Internet writ large is I would say the and I remember I've talked to John Lilly, was the original he was the CEO of Firefox back in the day and kind of an early web stalwart. The Internet is unhealthy Or the web, the World Wide Web is unhealthy right now. And the reason why it's unhealthy is because so many things that used to be the open Internet, when it really was like, you know, DARPANET, then ARPANET, then like this, like, Internet thing that people started using, but only really researchers and stuff like that, everything was just on the open web. There was no concept of a walled garden. I mean, like, search has already been fractured, by the way.

ChatGPT没有做到这一点。如果你想要实时搜索，你会去Twitter或X。对吧？如果你想搜索朋友的信息？

Didn't happen with ChatGPT. It's like if you want real time search, you go to Twitter or X. Mhmm. Right? You want search for your friends?

那你会去Facebook。这些内容都不在谷歌的搜索范围内，你无法搜索到朋友群中发生的事情，因为它们被隔离在那里。所以就有了所有这些不同的围墙花园。这是不健康的第一部分。不健康的第二部分就是互联网的商业化，这本身并不是坏事。

Well, you go to Facebook. Like, none of that is on is you can't search for Google in terms of, like, stuff that's happening amongst your friend group that's, like, walled off there. So you have all of these different walled gardens. So that's unhealthy part number one. Unhealthy part number two is just the commercialization of the Internet, which is not bad.

我是个资本家，我喜欢商业化。但如果你搜索‘最好的运动鞋是什么’，你会发现那些写关于好运动鞋内容的人，在1995年，如果你有一个博客，首先你是自己托管在自己的网站上，自己在服务器上安装Apache，然后纯粹出于热爱来做这件事。

I'm a capitalist. I like commercialization. But so much of, like, if you look for what is the best sneaker, right, like, are the people that are writing content about great sneakers? Like, in 1995, if you had a blog, well, number one, you just hosted it on your own site. You set Apache on your own server that you racked yourself, and then you just did it for the love of the game.

然后联盟链接提供了盈利模式，但它们确实污染了当时仍然开放的互联网，因为很多内容都是类似'十大推荐'。那些充斥网络的十大榜单网站，比如'十大跑鞋'，你知道那是什么吗？对我来说那就是十大联盟收入来源。

And then affiliate links provided the monetization model, but they really polluted the Internet that was still open because, like, so much is like, oh, top 10. Like a lot of these top 10 sites are out there. It's like top 10 running shoes. You know what that is? That's top 10 affiliate revenue to me.

我花钱雇印度人写些不知所云的内容，再拼命做SEO优化来赚钱。相比之下，互联网时代之前有本至今仍在发行的《消费者报告》，最酷的是它是唯一拒绝接广告的刊物，完全依靠订阅，这样你就能相信真实的评测。他们就像消费产品界的拉尔夫·纳德，会直言不讳地说'这东西很糟糕'。

And I pay somebody in India to go write gobbledygook and then SEO the heck out of that to make money. Contrast this with, like, pre Internet where there's there's a publication still around today called Consumer Reports. And the really cool thing about Consumer Reports is they were the only publication that refused to take advertising. It was entirely subscription based, and the idea was that you could trust the actual reviews. And they would do things like they were like the Ralph Nader of consumer products where it's like, you know, this thing is terrible.

'别买这个搅拌机，否则会切掉你的手指'，或者'这个产品值得买'。他们真的会严格评测每件产品。我们其实需要这种模式，但整个商业模式就这样消失了，对吧？

Don't buy this blender or we'll chop off your finger. Like, do buy this thing. Like, they would really, really review everything. We kind of need that. And like that entire business model just went away, right?

比如Craigslist几乎摧毁了所有传统媒体，也许它们该死也许不该。但它们主要通过两种方式盈利：信息垄断和广告收费。

Like, you know, Craigslist killed almost all of traditional media. Maybe they deserved to die, maybe they didn't. But like they made money from two things. They made money because they had a monopoly on information. They charged for ads there.

但盈利模式的重要部分是本地分类广告，这些全都消失了，这就是报纸衰亡的原因。你可能会想象报纸会有个'做好事'栏目，比如评测所有搅拌机，显然不会推荐会切手指的产品，那太糟糕了。

But like a big part of the monetization model was like the local classifieds. Like all of that went away, which is why newspapers have been dying. And you could imagine like a newspaper would have like a do gooder thing where it's like, oh, let's review all the blenders. And like, we're obviously not going to like show blenders that cut off your fingers. Like, that's bad.

所有这些都消失了。总结开放互联网的现状很困难，因为真正的开放网络比以前少多了。在所有生成内容中，很大比例是封闭的，而开放部分又充斥着垃圾。这就是我们在文章里说的：你无法把营销垃圾变成诚实分析。

Like, that whole thing went away. Like, so the summarization of the open Internet is tough because there's less open Internet than there used to be. Like, as a percentage of all the content being generated, a lot of it is walled off. And then the stuff that is not walled off is just, like, pervaded by, like, junk. And that's why like what we talk about in the piece is like you can't turn shilled junk into honest analysis.

所以我不知道如何解决这个问题。就算没有幻觉信息，就算一切都很美好，但互联网上大部分内容仍然是垃圾，彻头彻尾的垃圾。

So I don't know how we solve that. Like, no matter how good like, no more hallucination. Like, everything is awesome. But like most of the things on the Internet are crap. And they're crap.

我们都知道那些内容是垃圾，但却是为了赚取联盟佣金而经过SEO优化的垃圾。总结这些垃圾内容并无帮助。那么如何去除其中的垃圾信息呢？这相当具有挑战性。

And we know that they're crap, but the SEO optimized crap in order to earn affiliate commissions. And like summarizing that crap is not helpful. So how do you decrapify that? And that's quite challenging.

老实说，我认为在各类渠道中，视频内容里的垃圾信息是最少的。因为现在由于传统媒体的衰落，出现了许多创作者会实地评测十款不同的跑鞋。他们会在视频中明确声明——要么是某个品牌赞助的，更好的情况显然是完全没有赞助，但他们通过Google、YouTube的广告分成从观看量中获利。所以当我想看关于某人对比五款吹风机对这类发质效果的诚实评测时，我会选择观看非赞助的YouTube视频，这类视频通常浏览量很高，因为很多人都有类似的疑问。但我的感觉是，谷歌不会因为这是视频内容且不可快速浏览，也不会自动为每个视频生成文字记录，所以这些信息不会出现在传统搜索结果中。

I think honestly, what I've seen in terms of the channels where you see the least crap is actually video. Because as a like, if you're a creator, now it's, you know, due to the death of traditional media, there's now creators who go out and view review 10 different shoes for running. And we'll specifically make it very clear in the video, either this is sponsored by this specific brand or the better ones obviously are completely non sponsored, but they get ad revenue from Google, from YouTube, from people watching the video. And so honestly, that when I want an honest review of, like, someone has looked at five different blow dryers for this sort of hair, I will go to an unsponsored YouTube video, which often have a lot of views because there's a lot of people having similar queries. But the sense I have is that Google is not like, because it's a video and it's not skimmable and they're not, like, automatically generating transcripts for every video, that information does not appear in traditional search.

没错。

Right.

我认为现在已经开始有公司提出：应该把所有高质量视频转换成文字记录，然后让LLM阅读、审核并给出推荐。但这似乎还没有影响到传统谷歌主导的那部分互联网。

And I think now we're starting to see some companies say, like, hey. Look. Like, should turn all of those high quality videos into transcripts and an LLM can then read and review and make recommendations. But that doesn't seem to have hit, like, the traditional Google part of the Internet yet.

是的，我同意这个观点。

Yep. I agree with that.

对。《纽约时报》最近收购了Wirecutter，这大概就是你所说的例子。

Yep. New York Times recently bought a wire cutter, which is maybe an example of what you're talking about.

不过...

Well, but

我认为既是也不是。我的意思是，这就像所有的联盟链接一样。比如，这真的可信吗？几乎他们推荐的每件商品都带有联盟链接，这太可疑了。

it I think that yes and no. I mean, it's like everything's affiliate link. Like, is it really true? Like, it's so suspicious that, like, almost every item that they recommend always has an affiliate link. Yeah.

这不奇怪吗？对吧？这是否意味着存在抽样偏差？是真的吗？所以我对这些东西相当怀疑。

Isn't that odd? Right? Like, does that mean, like, know, is that, like, a sampling bias thing? Is that true? Like so I I'm I'm quite skeptical of a lot of these things.

而且，《消费者报告》时代又有些不同。我是说，可能存在偏见。也许为《消费者报告》评测的人就是讨厌某家公司，借此发泄。但你会认为，有了这些算法，如果能获得真正客观的反馈，那将非常棒。实际上，亚马逊本身就是一个巨大的搜索引擎。

And again, the Consumer Reports era was just a little bit different. I mean, you might have the biases. Like, maybe the person reviewing things for Consumer Reports just hates this one company and is taking out their buy like, this is always possible. But you would think with all these algorithms and everything else, if you could get, like, true objective feedback, this would be fantastic. And a lot of I mean, Amazon actually is a giant search engine.

而且，那东西也被污染得一塌糊涂，因为很多亚马逊卖家会去一个叫速卖通的网站。他们会花2美元买400个六周后才到货的小玩意，贴上自己的logo，然后以25美元出售。这又回到了我之前提到的延迟问题。

And, like, that thing is polluted to crap as well because what happens is what a lot of the sellers on Amazon, what they do is they go on this site called AliExpress. And AliExpress, I mean, this has changed a little bit with tariffs, but, like, they'll buy, like, 400 of some gizmo that shows up six weeks later, and they'll buy it for $2 each. They'll put their they'll slap their logo on it. Now they'll sell it for $25. It actually goes back to this latency point that I was making before.

比如，有多少人愿意六周后收货，又有多少人想明天就拿到？所以亚马逊做的就是套利。但如果你搜索商品，特别是消费电子产品——我记得我在找滑雪用的电热袜，发现它们很有用——结果有9000种不同品牌的电热袜，其实都是同一家原始设备制造商生产的。

Like, how many people want something six weeks from now versus how many people want something tomorrow? So a lot of what Amazon was is they would just arbitrage that. But if you search for an item, like, particularly in consumer electronics I I remember I was looking for heated socks for skiing. Turns out they're very useful. There are, like, 9,000 different pairs of heated socks that all have the same OEM, the original equipment manufacturer.

它们都有虚假评论。部分问题在于这种欺诈行为，亚马逊本应解决，但他们没有动力。就像我曾在亚马逊上卖石头，获得五星评价后，把商品编码改成电热袜，就能继承五星评价。

And it's like and they all have, like, bogus reviews. And part of, like, the bogusness, and Amazon should fix this, but they have no incentive to do so. It's like, I I used to sell a rock on Amazon. I get five star rock reviews. Now I switch the SKU from rock to heated socks, and I trade off my five star review.

亚马逊只想卖更多东西，所以对此视而不见。但大多数商品，如果你愿意等待，在速卖通上买比亚马逊划算得多。这就像一片被污染的垃圾海。目前为止，我最喜欢的零售商业模式是Costco，我认为它是世界上最伟大的公司。

And it's like, how does Amazon and again, Amazon just wants to sell more crap. So, like, they're totally fine with this. But, like, most things, if you're willing to wait, you're so much better off buying on AliExpress than Amazon, and it's just like this polluted sea of crap. Like my favorite business model for commerce by far is Costco. I think Costco is the greatest company in the world.

因为好市多拒绝销售劣质商品。他们拒绝接受高毛利率。比如他们为什么要拒绝？这完全说不通。他们为何要拒绝高毛利率？你知道原因吗？

Because Costco refuses to sell bad things. They refuse to take a high gross margin. Like why would they refuse It doesn't make any sense. Why would they refuse to take a high gross margin? You know why?

知道为什么吗？

Do know why?

因为他们想回馈顾客还是

Because they want to pass back to customers or

不不，是因为这会贬低会员资格的价值。他们靠会员费赚钱。所以他们会收取大约每年100美元的会员费。如果你看他们的净收入，基本上就是会员数量——大约5000多万会员，这个庞大的数字乘以会员费的价格。

No, no. It's because it degrades the value of the membership. They make money from the membership. So they'll charge you like something like $100 a year to join Costco. And if you look at their net income, it's basically the number of memberships that they have like 50 plus million members, it's some huge number, times the price of the membership.

那就是他们的净收入。其他所有业务基本持平。如果你在一件衬衫上赚取50%的毛利率，他们会觉得太高了，你被开除了。你不能赚那么多钱。

That's their net income. And then everything else just kind of is awash. And if you are making a 50% gross margin on a shirt, they're like, that's too much. You're fired. Like, you can't make that much money.

这会贬低会员价值。他们会做出疯狂的事，比如热狗仍然卖1.5美元。他们自己开办养鸡场，因为烤鸡的成本太高了。他们就是这样经营业务的，拒绝销售任何他们不自豪的商品。而他们的自有品牌同样优质，比如Kirkland葡萄酒、Kirkland啤酒、Kirkland衬衫。他们现在正被Lululemon起诉，因为他们生产的裤子比Lulu的裤子好得多，价格却便宜很多，实际上质量更好。

It devalues the membership. So, I mean, they'll do crazy things like, you know, the hot dog is still 1.5 They started their own chicken farm because the rotisserie chicken, like, the costs were going too high. It's like, that's how they run the business, and they refuse to sell anything that they are not proud of. And the generic brand is just as good, like Kirkland wine, Kirkland beer, Kirkland shirts. They're getting sued by Lululemon right now because they made pants that were better than Lulu's pants that are much, much cheaper, but they're actually much better.

所以好市多是最棒的。这就是为什么在我们讨论的所有商业话题中——无论是互联网前时代、互联网还是人工智能——好市多都能免疫，因为他们就像是消费者报告加强版，对待顾客极其用心，这就是为什么这家公司对他们而言价值数千亿美元。

So Costco is the greatest thing. Like, that's why Costco has been like the like, for everything we talked about in commerce, like pre Internet, like Internet, AI, like, Costco is immune to all of this because it's like they're like the consumer reports plus, like, the like, it's just they treat customers incredibly well, and that's why this company is worth hundreds of billions of dollars to them.

人们真的非常信任他们。比如，我妈妈是Costco的长期会员，现在她连眼镜都在Costco配。每次我想订机票什么的，她就会说，登录用Costco的服务吧。因为她总觉得Costco能提供最优价格的最佳选择，而事实通常也确实如此。

And people really trust them. Like, my mom has been a Costco member for forever, and now she gets her glasses glasses at Costco. Every time I, like, wanna go get flights or something, she's like, log in and, use the Costco thing. And because she always thinks that Costco is gonna have the best option at the best price, and she's usually right.

这对他们来说是神圣不可侵犯的准则。即便能赚更多钱，他们也拒绝违背这一点。亚马逊就很有意思，我记得杰夫·贝索斯有次演讲提到过：通常有两种商业模式——一种是‘我们最高能收取多少费用还不被消费者抵制？’

That is sacrosanct to them. They would refuse to violate that because they can make so much more money if they decided to. And Amazon it's interesting because, like, normally, I remember there's a speech by Jeff Bezos where he talks about this. Like, you know, there are two business models. There's the, how what's the most that we could get away with in terms of charging?

苹果就是典型代表对吧？比如新款iPhone装18个摄像头就敢标价1600美元，甚至试探能不能卖到1700美元。他们的毛利率高得惊人。

Like, that's Apple. Right? It's like, oh, like, you know, let's charge $1,600 for the for this iPhone, you know, 25 that we're gonna come out with that has 18 cameras. Like, how how about 7 can we even get away with 1,700? They have very high gross margins.

另一种公司则追求‘如何把价格压到最低’——亚马逊就是这种。他们放任平台上商品鱼龙混杂，觉得没必要筛选，反正有消费者评价系统（虽然做得也不怎么样）。

There are other companies like, how do we charge the least amount possible? That's kind of Amazon. Let's have this sea of crap. But whatever. Why would we curate the crap?

这两种极端模式很常见，就像安卓与苹果的对立。有像奔驰、法拉利这样的高端品牌，也有大批量生产的廉价商品。而Costco创造了极其独特、难以复制的商业模式——它建立在‘相信我，我就是最优选’的基础上。

That's up to the consumer. We'll have the reviews and everything else, but they don't do a great job in the reviews. And like, those are the extremes, right? Like, you know, Android and Apple or like, you know, there are so many examples of this. There's like the premier provider, right?

但这种模式需要数十年积累信任才能成立。就像贾斯汀的妈妈会觉得：虽然说不清为什么，但只要是Costco卖的东西，肯定错不了。

There's like the Mercedes, the Ferrari, whatever, and like, just want to show like high end stuff, and then there's like the mass produced, like, you know, low end stuff. And then there's this very, very unique business model that is very hard to replicate called Costco because normally it doesn't work because it's like, hey, just trust me because I'm the best. But you have to have, like, many, many decades of trust Yeah. Such that Justine's mom is like, I don't know what it is, but if it's sold at Costco, it's good.

没错。

Yes.

如果你是好市多的CEO，你会进一步利用这种信任去做其他事情吗，还是那会危及整个企业的根基？

And if if you were a CEO of Costco, would you further leverage that trust to do other things, or would that risk the whole inter

这简直是在拿整个企业冒险。但他们确实有很多可操作空间——说来有趣，我们团队曾与好市多董事会洽谈过金融服务提案。因为你看，每家银行都在试图宰客对吧？

just to risks think the whole enterprise. But there's a lot that they can I mean, it's funny? We we've met with the one of one of my partners met with the Costco board and, like, pitched them on financial services. Because it's like, you know what? Every bank is trying to rip you off, right?

他们要么在贷款上漫天要价，要么在存款利息上克扣你。而好市多贷款完全可以做到行业最低价——他们根本不需要靠这个赚钱，会员费才是盈利点。所以业务扩展空间很大，不过确实有难度。

They're trying to overcharge you for loans or underpay you on your deposits. And the Costco loan would just be the cheapest possible. They're trying to make no money on that because they make money on the membership. So they probably could expand it quite a bit. But yes, it's hard.

他们确实需要现代化改革，现在还是那种下午五点就关门的仓储模式。我希望能延长营业时间，而且他们的配送服务也不够好。但这种独特的商业模式经得起时间考验，我认为人工智能也颠覆不了它。

There's some modernization that they could probably do because it still is this very warehouse thing that, like, closes at five p. M, and I wish it were open later and everything like this, and, like, their shipping isn't great if you want to order stuff. But it is a very, very unique business model that is somewhat of a it will stand the test of time, and I think it's AI proof.

没错。贾斯汀，我们不妨聊聊AI改变商业的其他方式？你之前提到过几种可能受影响的消费类型。

Yeah. Justine, why don't we get into other ways in which AI will change commerce? You outline a few different types of purchases that that might get you in.

是的。我们研究了从冲动消费（比如传统货架上的可乐，现在更多是TikTok刷视频时突然看到酷炫T恤就下单）到重大决策消费（比如买房、选婚礼场地或购车这类需要动用大笔收入的消费）的全谱系。

Yeah. So we kinda looked at the range of purchases from, like, the impulse buys, which I think used I mean, still they still are like the Coke thing, the Coke bottle on the aisle. But often now for, like, a lot of people, they're like the TikTok shop thing where you're watching a video and it shows up and you're like, that T shirt looks cool. I'm gonna buy it. All the way to, like, really considered purchases, like a house or like a wedding venue or like a car where you're spending, like, a significant chunk of your income.

这类消费要么是单次行为要么重复率极低，消费者会做大量调研。我认为光谱两端都较难被AI颠覆——冲动消费本身具有即时性，你看到商品瞬间就决定购买；而算法最多只能做到在TikTok推送印着你家狗名字的T恤时，让你更容易下单而已。

It's like a one or a multi time thing and you're, like, doing a lot of research. And I think the so both ends of the spectrum, I think, are harder for AI to disrupt. I think the impulse buy because like there's no research in advance and you're not going anywhere specific to buy it. Like, by its nature, you are making the decision to buy it immediately when you see it. And so, you know, there's like, algorithms will get better and better to target you with the shirt that shows up on your TikTok feed that somehow has your dog's name, and and you're gonna buy that more than the other thing.

但这并不是我们所说的那种生成式AI。在购买决策链的最末端环节，我认为很难完全由AI端到端处理，因为虽然你可能开始在ChatGPT、Gemini或任何新兴的AI原生平台上进行在线调研，但由于购买行为如此重大，你很可能还是希望获得某种线下体验——亲眼看看商品、触摸实物、感受实物，并与人类专家交流。对吧？这意味着中间存在一整类产品，我们相信AI能以几种不同方式颠覆其购买行为。比如最明显的就是调研环节：比如我常用的旅行手提包坏了，我需要找一款能装下笔记本电脑、大水壶、符合飞机行李舱尺寸的最佳替代品。

But that's sort of not the, like, generative AI that that we're talking about. And then sort of the most consideration end of the purchase, I think it's hard to have that be fully AI end to end because while you may start doing your research online on on ChatGBT or Gemini or any sort of new AI native property that that shows up, the purchase is so significant that you're probably going to want to have some sort of in person experience where you're seeing the thing, touching the thing, experiencing the thing, talking to another human expert about it. Right? And so that means there's this whole range of products in the middle that I think we believe the purchasing behavior could be disrupted by AI in a in a couple of different ways. So one is obviously like the research way of like, you know, I'm trying to find the best my handbag wore out that I bring when I travel all the time.

如果你很忙没时间自己研究，可能会委托AI代理帮你浏览所有TikTok视频、Reddit帖子，整合真实消费者反馈后给出推荐。你可能还想自己点击查看些选项，但这种情况如果存在良好的购买集成接口，你很可能会通过AI代理完成交易。还有些情况是你已明确知道想要什么——就像Alex提到的——你只想要最优价格。

Like, I need the best one that fits a fits a laptop, can fit a big water bottle, all this sort of stuff, can be fine in the overhead part of a plane. And if you're busy, you don't have a ton of time to do that research yourself, and you might ask an AI agent that can watch all the TikToks for you, read all of the Reddit posts, and pull in the kind of real consumer feedback and then make a recommendation. And you might wanna do some of your own sort of clicking through to look at options. But I would say in that case, it's like decently likely that if there's then a good integration to purchase, you might do it through an AI agent. There's also sort of just things you already know you want, like Alex has mentioned, where you want the best price.

因此我认为AI代理能在价格优化方面大有作为。比如你固定购买某款洗衣液，它能全网比价找到最优惠渠道。它甚至能智能判断：'我应该每天扫描价格，如果某网站突然降价30%且配送时效合理，就该立即下单'，还能根据用户习惯建议囤货——因为系统知道这对该消费者很划算。

And so I think AI agents can do a lot around price optimization. Like, if you always buy a specific type of laundry detergent, it can find across the Internet where is this laundry detergent best priced. And it can also probably know, hey. I should scan this daily. And if it's 30% less on this specific site than it usually is anywhere else and it's gonna arrive in a reasonable amount of time, I should probably just buy this and they can store an extra box of laundry detergent because based on what I know about the consumer, that's worth it to them.

随着向决策链上游移动，还有一类购买行为我认为会由AI中介完成但仍保留人际互动，比如自行车、沙发等中高价值商品，或是笔记本电脑这类你希望有人真正理解所有需求、帮你做出最佳决策的物品。这些通常是你会使用多年的重要物品，你希望它性能可靠、不会快速过时。目前实现这点要么靠深挖Reddit的'终身耐用'版块等论坛，要么依赖信任品牌如苹果并支付溢价。未来可以设想有个深度了解你的AI代理，能通过动态问答（甚至电话沟通）收集需求，再调研后给出定制化推荐。

As you move sort of up the consideration stack, there's a another sort of purchase that I think will be sort of AI intermediated, but maybe have some some human impact, things like maybe bikes or couches, like a little bit of higher value purchases, laptops, where you want to feel like someone has taken the time to really understand all of your criteria and help you make the best decision about what you should buy. This is probably an item that you're going to be using for years, and it's important to you that it works and that it's the best option and doesn't kind of immediately become obsolete. And today, I think the only way that this has happened is like people will go super deep into these Reddit threads on the, like, buy it for life forum and and all of these different places, or they have a brand they really trust like Apple and they're willing to pay the premium. I think in the future, it's fun to think about having an AI agent that really kind of deeply understands you where you can have a more in-depth conversation about that sort of thing, like maybe even a phone call where they're asking you a bunch of questions dynamically back and forth and you're saying and and providing them with the information they need to go back, do the research, and decide.

这些就是我们考虑的AI可能影响购买行为的一些方式。

So that's kind of some of the things that we've considered about how AI could impact purchase behavior.

其实还有另一个视角——当然分析维度很多——比如你购买的商品是否具有UPC（通用产品代码，就是可扫描的条形码，相当于图书ISBN的升级版）？如果没有UPC（实际上很多互联网1.0时代成功的电商商品都没有），想想Wayfair为何成功？

Well, and there's another kind of lens. There are many different ways of cutting this, but, like, does the product that you're buying have a UPC or no? If you know what a UPC is, universal product code, and that's the little scannable thing. It's kind of the the successor to the ISBN, which is for books. And if it doesn't have a UPC actually, a lot of the commerce that has worked kind of post Internet one point o, like, know, how did Wayfair work?

Wayfair卖的是什么？比如吧台凳。'我想要个吧台凳'，但这商品根本没有UPC。他们的解决方案就是：'好吧，这里有个吧台凳'。

Why did Wayfair work well? Well, like, they're selling things like barstools. You know? Like, I want a barstool, but there's no UPC on this. So it's like, Well, here's a barstool.

尺寸是合适的，但没有可扫描的代码。如果有UPC（通用产品代码），你可以运行这个小算法，比如‘给我最低价’。在人工智能之前，你得自己运行这个算法，最终很可能在亚马逊上成交。所以所有在亚马逊上的人都完蛋了，而亚马逊赚得盆满钵满。我稍微简化了一点。

It fits the right dimensions, but there's no scannable code. If there is a UPC, you can run this little algorithm of, like, Get me the lowest price. And pre AI, you would just run this algorithm on your own, and you would probably end up at Amazon. So everybody who was in Amazon just got killed, and Amazon did well. I'm oversimplifying a little bit.

如果没有UPC，那流程就有点不同了。因为如果有UPC，我刚才描述的算法在AI加持下会指数级提升效率。以前，有些人更看重时间而非金钱，有些人则相反。如果我更看重钱，我就是那个算法——我会花时间找最优优惠券。

If it doesn't have a UPC, then that's a little bit of a different process than if it does. Because if it has a UPC, then the algorithm that I was describing is exponentially better with AI. Because before, you'd have this, some people value time more than money, and some people value money more than time. And if I value money more than time, I am the algorithm. I will spend so I need to find the best coupon.

我需要找到最好的返现网站。网上有很多返现平台，很多人更在乎钱而非时间。他们就这么干。所有这些都将被自动化取代，或者自动化地为消费者服务——但前提是你得确定SKU（库存单位）或UPC。SKU带UPC，输入进去，搞定。

I need to find the best cashback site. Like all of these cashback sites are out there on the internet, which lots of people money more than time. Like they do this. All of that will be automated away or automated for the benefit of the consumer if and only if you have something where you determined the SKU or the UPC. The SKU has a UPC, you feed it in there, good.

如果没有这些标识，那就是另一回事了。比如‘好吧，我可能没法输入任何东西’——从冲动消费到深度考量。AI会在深度考量方面帮你，但不会帮你购买。但如果它输出了带UPC或SKU的东西，这部分AI就会自动处理。对吧？

If it doesn't have that, then that's another lens where it's like, Okay, I'm probably I can't feed whatever like, again, kind of impulse to highly considered. AI is gonna help you on the highly considered side but not help you buy it. But if it if it spits out something with a UPC or a SKU, then this part of the AI will just automate that. Right. Right?

比如说自行车。我不知道该买哪款。但如果是专业自行车，而且——看，这东西有UPC，砰的一下。你为什么不把它喂给这个正在开发的功能呢？因为它会以最优运费、最佳条款、最划算条件自动帮你购买。

So if it's like bike, sure. Like, I don't know what bike to buy. But if it's a specialized bike and, like, here's the here's the thing, it has a UPC on it, like, boom. Why wouldn't you feed it to this part of the thing as this gets developed? Because that's just going to buy it for you with the best shipping, the best terms, the best whatever.

现在这个功能不完善的原因在于——其实也有，但是手动操作的。而那些时间比金钱更宝贵的人，根本不会做这些事。

And right now, the reason why that doesn't happen well, it does happen, but it happens manually. And the people that have time valued more for them than money, they don't do any of that stuff.

总结一下：我们讨论了过去十年里这个领域没有涌现大量新的巨头赢家，所有红利都被聚合平台收割。为什么我们相信未来十年会出现新的、大型且持久的公司机会？不妨分享一下我们期待可能出现的公司类型。

Putting this all together, we were talking about how over the last decade, there hasn't been a ton of net new, big winners in this space, and all the gains have gone to the aggregators. Why do we believe that over the next decade, there's some opportunities for net new, big, and durable companies? Maybe just share what types of companies those could exist that we're excited about that could exist.

我是说，显然，ChatGPT在某种程度上是一家新兴公司，但它不是亚马逊，也不是Shopify。它是一个全新的公司，显然将在商业领域发挥作用。问题是，是否会有专门的细分市场？我认为，那些高度优化的——我很了解你。

I mean, obviously, ChatGPT is I mean, they are an upstart to a certain extent, but it's not Amazon. It's not Shopify. It's a net new company that clearly will have a role in commerce. The question is, will there be specialized subsegments? And I I do think that the, like, you know, the hyper optimized I know you very well.

而且，像Camel Camel Camel这样的独立公司可能非常非常盈利。据我所知，他们从未筹集过风险投资。很多人使用它们，很多这类返利网站。这些东西一直像是，你更看重钱而不是时间。

And, like, know, Camel Camel Camel is an independent company that's probably very, very profitable. As far as I know, they've never raised venture capital. A lot of people use them. A lot of these cashback sites. Like, these things that have always been like, you value money more than time.

有一个叫Ebates的网站之前被Rakuten收购了。英国有一家叫Quidco的公司，非常非常相似。这类事物，你可以想象它们变得更加主流，成为非常专业的购物代理，特别是在不是深度研究方面，而是在这个小而可能实际上很大的领域。回到大多数公司无法真正弄清楚归因的问题，就像是，我们将成为最后一击。21世纪后AI时代的最后一击将是那些知道如何做到这一点的AI公司。可能不是ChatGPT，因为它们是这种横向的全能型，但像是，我要把所有的信用卡都给你。

There was a site called Ebates that was bought by Rakuten a while ago. There's a company in The UK called Quidco, which is very, very similar. Like, these kind of things, You can imagine them going much, much more mainstream and being very, very specialized shopping agents, particularly not on the heavy research side, but on this one little tiny vector that might actually be very big, going back to how most companies can't really figure out attribution, it's like, we are going to be the last click. Like, the last click of the twenty first century post AI is going to be AI companies that know how to do this. And it might not be ChatGPT because they're like this horizontal everything, but it's like, I'm going give you all my credit cards.

你实际上甚至会弄清楚在这笔特定购买中使用哪张信用卡，因为这张卡对这种商品的返现比那张高。你将整合像Ebates或Rakuten那样的联盟跟踪，给我返现。你将处理所有的优惠券事宜。顺便说一句，并非所有这些对商家都有好处。但你可以想象——这不需要太多想象力，因为已经有很多公司在做这些，但它们一直是一个小众空间，因为它们只吸引那些——顺便说，有很多这样的人——更看重钱而不是时间，并且有点技术背景的人。

You're actually going to even figure out which credit card you use for this particular purchase because this one has higher cashback than that one for this type of good. And you're going to integrate like affiliate tracking where you give me cashback like Ebates does or Rakuten does. You're going to do all the coupon stuff. And not all of this will be good for merchants, by the way. But you can imagine and again, it doesn't require a lot to imagine this because there already are a lot of companies that do this, but they have been somewhat of a niche space because they only appeal to the people and there are plenty of people that are like this, by the way, that value money more than time and are somewhat technical.

所以实际上不仅仅是钱比时间重要。像我妈妈可能想用其中一个。她可能更看重钱而不是时间，因为她退休了，为什么不呢？但就是太复杂了。如果你让它变得非常简单——这是另一回事。

So it's actually not just money more than time. It's like, my mom might want to use one of these. Probably would value money more than time because she's retired, so why not? But it's just too complicated to use. And if you make it so easy mean, that's the other thing.

就像我们之前谈到的，如果你现在就能展示某样东西，那将比五周后展示有更大的市场。这很合理。如果你让某样东西使用起来极其简单，几乎像是一个智商测试，就像是，你想为某样东西付更少还是更多？当然每个人都会说，我想付更少。但就像是，哦，但你必须做这18件事。

It's like we talked about, like, how if you bake something show up right now, that's gonna have a bigger market than if something shows up five weeks from now. Like, that makes sense. If you make something so painfully easy to use that it's more of an IQ test, it's like, do you wanna pay less for something or more for something? And, like, everybody, of course, would say, I wanna pay less for something. But it's like, oh, but you have to do these 18 things.

下载。他们会说，太复杂了，我搞不懂怎么做。但如果它非常简单，我认为这是一个创业公司可以生存的领域，因为这显然不会是亚马逊，因为亚马逊希望你在亚马逊购物。顺便说一句，亚马逊有一个巨大的收入和利润项目来自广告，这也是它们某种程度上受到威胁的地方。

Download. They're like, that's too complicated. I can't figure out how to do that. But if it's so easy, I think that that's one area where you could I mean, this is where startups have lived because it's clearly not gonna be Amazon because it's like Amazon wants you to shop at Amazon. Amazon, by the way, like the other thing that they're somewhat imperiled by, Amazon has a giant revenue and profit line item from advertising.

就像你访问亚马逊网站，点击一个广告后跳转离开，这对亚马逊来说是100%的毛利润。他们宁愿卖这个，也不愿卖需要配送的产品——天哪，那可麻烦了。所以他们最赚钱的商品其实是广告业务，如果不再控制展示层（比如被AI中介化），这块业务就会受到威胁。但我觉得这更像是金钱而非时间的问题，把这种逻辑扩展到整个商业宇宙，确实存在这样的可能性。

It's like you go to the Amazon website, and then you click on an ad that takes you away from the Amazon website, that's 100% gross margin for Amazon. They'd rather sell you that than sell you a product where they have to deliver it, God forbid. So the best SKU that they sell is the advertising and that's going to be imperiled if they no longer control the presentation layer because, like, AI intermediates it. But I think it's like this kind of money more than time, expand that to the entire universe. There's there's certainly a there there.

是的。我认为有两方面影响：消费者端——回想我之前关于深度讨论选购自行车的例子，可以想象有人会微调一个模型，通过分析大量自行车专家与用户的对话，真正懂得该问什么问题，从而提供比ChatGPT更好的购物体验和决策建议。这是超越ChatGPT现有冲击的另一种消费者渠道变革。然后是商户端——如果突然出现大量AI代理浏览网站，甚至代表消费者做决策并点击购买按钮，会引发什么连锁反应？

Yeah. I think there's sort of two sides. So I think there's the consumer side, right, which is if we go back to my conversation earlier about you want to have a really in-depth conversation about what bike to get, you could imagine someone fine tuning a model that is much better on tons of conversations between bike experts and people to actually know the right questions to ask to give you a much better buying experience and better outcome than ChatGPT could. So that's one way that like consumer distribution could be disrupted beyond the ChatGPT disruption that will happen. Then I think there's the merchant side of things, which is like, what are the implications if we suddenly have a ton of AI agents browsing your site and potentially even making decisions on behalf of consumers and hitting the purchase button instead of people?

比如网站应该如何改进，才能让AI代理更容易浏览、交互和找到目标商品？在金融基础设施方面，我们需要什么系统让AI代理能代表用户完成支付（比如使用用户信用卡）？整个面向商户的基础设施都可能发生巨变，我认为这个变革将与消费者端的市场变革同等重要。

Like, how do websites how should websites change to make themselves more browsable, more easy to interact with, more easy to find what the agent is looking for? What sort of infrastructure do we need on on the financial side for AI agents to actually be able to make it make a purchase on behalf of someone and use their credit card? Like, the entire infrastructure and merchant facing side of it is probably going to change quite a bit. And and I think that will be just as big as as the consumer side of the market.

我觉得这是个很好的收尾点。Alex、Justine，非常感谢这次精彩的对话。

I think it's a good place to to wrap. Alex, Justine, thanks so much for the great conversation.

谢谢邀请我们参与。

Thank you. Thanks for having us.

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