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我觉得现在录制节目前都得先做热身运动。
I feel like I gotta warm up physically before acquired episodes these days.
就像跑马拉松一样。
It's like a marathon.
录到最后我的背确实会疼,因为一直站着不动。
My back does start to hurt by the end from just standing still the whole time.
噢,我也是。
Oh, me too.
我也是。
Me too.
其实我已经不在录制前晨练了,因为不想太累。
I've actually stopped working out mornings before we record because I don't wanna be too tired.
我需要保持体力。
Like, I need my stamina.
是啊。
Yeah.
我们应该想办法,比如在动感单车上录制什么的。
We should figure out, like, recording on the Peloton or something.
那会气喘吁吁的。
That'd be a breathy.
没错。
Yeah.
是你吗?
Is it you?
是你吗?
Is it you?
是你吗?
Is it you?
现在谁掌握了真相?
Who got the truth now?
是你吗?
Is it you?
是你吗?
Is it you?
是你吗?
Is it you?
让我坐下。
Sit me down.
直说吧。
Say it straight.
又一个故事即将展开。
Another story on the way.
谁掌握了真相?
Who got the truth?
欢迎收听《Acquired》第十二季第四期,本播客讲述伟大科技公司及其背后的故事与策略。
Welcome to season 12 episode four of Acquired, the podcast about great technology companies and the stories and playbooks behind them.
我是本·吉尔伯特。
I'm Ben Gilbert.
我是大卫·罗斯坦。
I'm David Rosenthal.
我们是主持人。
And we are your hosts.
上次我们讲到1990年的任天堂英雄们,他们单枪匹马地复兴了电子游戏产业,并占据了全球95%的市场份额。
We last left our Nintendo heroes in 1990 when they single handedly revived the video game industry and captured 95% of the market share globally.
我们进行了七力分析,认为该公司的竞争地位基本上比历史上任何公司都要好,这场游戏他们本不该输。
We did our seven powers analysis and determined the company had a better competitive position than basically any company in history, and the game was theirs to lose.
但不知怎的,他们还是输了。
But somehow, they did just that.
确实如此。
Indeed, they did.
然后他们赢了,又输了,又赢了,又输了,然后又赢了。
And then they won, and then they lost, and then they won, and then they lost, and then they won again.
没错。
Exactly.
今天的故事将讲述这次衰落,以及任天堂如何在第九局下半场浪费了10分的领先优势。
Today's story will be about the fall and how Nintendo managed to blow a 10 run lead in the bottom of the ninth.
但就像所有伟大的英雄一样,面对世嘉、索尼、微软甚至苹果等对手,任天堂的创造力和智慧使其至今仍是游戏界的重要参与者,无疑也是最独特的存在。
But like all great heroes, when faced with foes like Sega, Sony, Microsoft, and eventually even Apple, Nintendo's creativity and cleverness has kept them a major player and certainly the most unique player in the video game landscape today.
所以大卫,正如你所说,这对我们来说是个奇怪的故事。
So, David, as you mentioned, this is a weird story for us.
通常,《Acquired》的叙事模式是收入逐年攀升,现在他们赚的钱比以往任何时候都多。
Usually, the narrative on acquired goes something like revenues kept climbing every year, and now they're making more money than they ever had before.
但对任天堂而言,这条路充满周期性起伏,他们在2011至2018年等长时段里确实亏损过。
But with Nintendo, it's been a very cyclical road, and they actually lost money in long periods of time like 2011 to 2018.
而他们最大的优势自始至终也是最大的软肋。
And their greatest strengths are their greatest weaknesses all the way through.
因此在克里斯·帕拉特主演的《超级马里奥兄弟》电影上映前夕,我们今天要讲述任天堂故事的第二篇章——从九十年代主机战争开始延续至今。
So on the eve of the release of the Chris Pratt movie, Super Mario Brothers, we tell Nintendo's part two story today from the console wars of the nineties forward.
在进入正题前,我们想向您推荐a c q two的最新内容(在任何播客平台搜索即可收听)。
Well, before we get into it, we wanna let you know about the latest over at a c q two, which you can search in any podcast player.
那里有许多精彩剧集。
It's got some great episodes.
即将上线的是对Retool公司CEO David Shu的专访。
The next one to drop will be with the CEO of retool, David Shu.
这位创始人极具逆向思维,他关于创业智慧的见解非常值得一听。
He's a super contrarian founder and really interesting to just hear his take on, startup wisdom generally.
我们还收到大量听众来信,大家都对Vijay Raji参与的Statsig那期节目反响热烈,强烈推荐您也收听。
We've also gotten lots of emails from folks saying you really love the Statsig episode with Vijay Raji, so that is a great one to check out too.
另外还有Slack社区。
There's also the Slack.
这个Slack社区已成为我和David的重要研究工具,因为许多听众在我们涉及的领域都有真知灼见和实战经验。
The Slack community has become a critical research tool for David and I since so many of you have insights and real work experience in the areas that we are covering.
如果您尚未加入Slack,那里不仅有我们录制节目前获取的资讯,更是节目播出后深度讨论的聚集地。
If you are not in the Slack yet, that is definitely where the best discussion is happening on top of what we were able to learn before we recorded an episode, kind of about it all afterwards.
社区入口:acquired.fm/slack
So that is acquired.fm/slack.
那么,大卫,事不宜迟,请带我们进入主题吧。
And, David, without further ado, please take us in.
听众朋友们,一如既往地声明,这并非投资建议。
And listeners, as always, this is not investment advice.
大卫和我可能在讨论的公司中持有投资,本节目仅作信息分享与娱乐用途。
David and I may have investments in the companies we discuss, and this show is for informational and entertainment purposes only.
哦,在节目尾声讨论任天堂股票在2023年当前是否值得持有会非常有趣。
Oh, it'll be very fun at the end of the episode to talk about whether we, think Nintendo is a good stock to own at this point in time or not here in 2023.
但在探讨这些之前,我们首先要聊聊任天堂在1980年代取得的另一项巨大成功。
But before we talk about all that, we first need to talk about one more giant success from Nintendo in the nineteen eighties.
一个我们上期故意略过的小型巨大成功,因为它将在第二部分变得极其重要。
A very small giant success that we intentionally left off in the last episode because it's gonna be very, very important here in part two.
那就是——Game Boy。
And that is, of course, the Game Boy.
没错。
Yes.
上次我们详述了横井军平,这位任天堂实质上的总工程师,从发明超级手到光枪射击系统,再到指导宫本茂的种种天才创举。
So we talked last time all about Gunpei Yukoi, Nintendo's effectively chief engineer and his genius behind building everything from the Ultra Hand to the light gun shooting range to mentoring Shigeru Miyamoto and everything he did for Nintendo.
我们上期轻描淡写带过的早期成就之一,便是Game & Watch业务。
One of his first early successes that we kinda glossed over last time was the game and watch business.
这些是便携式专用掌上游戏机。
Now these were portable, dedicated, handheld video game systems.
所谓专用,是指每台硬件设备只能运行一款游戏。
Meaning, by dedicated, each piece of hardware only played one game.
曾经有一款大金刚Game and Watch。
There was a Donkey Kong Game and Watch.
曾经有一款马里奥Game and Watch。
There was a Mario Game and Watch.
曾经有一款塞尔达Game and Watch。
There was a Zelda Game and Watch.
当然还有一款米老鼠Game and Watch。
Even, of course, a Mickey Mouse Game and Watch.
但每台设备只能玩那一款游戏。
But each piece of hardware only played that one game.
其实Game and Watch也是横井军平发明十字键的地方,你知道的,这与所有其他控制器都不同。
It was also actually on the Game and Watch where Gunpei invented the D pad that is, you know, unlike every single controller.
意识到这点。
Realize that.
是啊。
Yeah.
十字键就是在Game and Watch上发明的。
That is where the D pad was invented with the Game and Watch.
简直太酷了。
Pretty pretty freaking awesome.
实际上Game and Watch销量非常惊人。
And the Game and Watch actually sold a ton of units.
我记得在停产前卖出了4300万台。
I think 43,000,000 units got sold before it end of life.
是的。
Yes.
这就是关键所在。
And this is the thing.
西方观众对此了解不多,因为它在西方从未真正流行过。
Western audiences don't know that much about it because it was never that popular in the West.
但在亚洲却非常火爆。
It was huge in Asia, though.
就像你说的,4300万台销量,超过10亿美元的终身营收,在80年代NES问世前的时代,这对任天堂来说意义极其重大。
Like you said, 43,000,000 units, over $1,000,000,000 in lifetime revenue from this product line, which back then in the eighties and kinda pre NES, that was super, super significant for Nintendo.
考虑到我们上次讨论的马里奥和大金刚在技术创新上的奇迹,以及NES的先进性,你可能会想:1982年NES问世前,宫本茂和任天堂究竟是怎么把大金刚移植到便携设备上的?
Now, if you're thinking about this, given everything we talked about last time about technological and video game innovation in Marvels that Donkey Kong and Mario were and the NES and how advanced it was, How the hell did Goonpei and Nintendo get Donkey Kong running on a portable piece of hardware in 1982 pre NES?
这是怎么实现的?
How did this come about?
这源于宫本茂的哲学理念,它后来成为任天堂'游戏即游戏本质'核心理念之外的第二个重要思想支柱。
It would be through Goonpei's philosophy, which really becomes sort of the second core piece of Nintendo philosophy beyond the name of the game is the game.
而横井军平的技术哲学是'用枯竭技术进行横向思考'。
And Gunpei's technology philosophy is lateral thinking with withered technology.
因为NES在很多方面仍是尖端硬件。
Because the NES still was cutting edge hardware in many ways.
确实如此。
Absolutely.
它比竞争对手领先了好几年。
It was years ahead of the competition.
这是首款面向消费设备的GPU架构。
It had the first GPU architecture in a consumer focused device.
这不是过时的技术。
It was not withered technology.
恰恰相反。
It was the opposite of that.
在二十世纪八十年代,与所有这些硅片、个人电脑、计算和图形创新并存的——NES也参与其中——是另一个相邻的市场和硅生态系统,那就是计算器。
So sitting next to all of this silicon and PC and computing and graphics innovation that's happening in the nineteen eighties that the NES took part in was another adjacent market and silicon ecosystem, which was calculators.
我们之前在节目中讨论过计算器行业,比如在台积电那期节目里,特别是与张忠谋和德州仪器的历史。
So we've talked a little bit about the calculator industry on the show in the past on, like, our TSMC episode, specifically the history with Morris Chang and Texas Instruments.
我们将来肯定要专门做一期德州仪器的节目。
We gotta cover TI at some point in the future.
我记得这个在我们的投票列表上,对。
Think I that was on our voting for LPs for Yep.
可能是下一期节目。
Next potential episode.
但到了八十年代初,计算器行业有点像今天的PC行业——除了Mac和苹果芯片之外。
But by the early eighties, the calculator industry was kinda like the PC industry is today, other than the Mac and Apple Silicon.
它完全商品化,非常成熟、廉价,技术完全透明,可以用极低的成本生产。
It was total commodity, very mature, cheap, completely understood technology, and you could make it for very, very low cost.
这个行业当时尤其被日本半导体公司主导。
It was also specifically dominated by Japanese semiconductor companies.
对任天堂来说非常方便。
Very convenient for Nintendo.
于是宫本茂稍微拓展了一下思路,思考硅技术如何驱动电子游戏,他顺手借鉴了计算器行业的成熟技术,就这样,便携版《大金刚》诞生了。
So Gunpei just expanded his mind a little bit in what could be silicon technology powering video games, and he reached over and grabbed a bunch of mature technology from the calculator industry and voila, portable Donkey Kong.
要知道,配上LCD屏幕后,本质上就是同一种类型的显示屏。
And, know, with the LCD screen, it's basically the same type of screen.
处理器并不高级,只是做些简单运算来决定角色左右移动、计分等基础功能。
It's no more advanced of a processor doing simple math to decide whether the character moves left or right and summing points and things like that.
这就是个计算器。
It's a calculator.
没人会误以为这是街机品质的《大金刚》移植版,但这并不重要。
Nobody would mistake this for an arcade quality port of Donkey Kong, but it doesn't matter.
现在人们可以随时随地玩《大金刚》了。
People now can play Donkey Kong on the go.
这太棒了。
This is amazing.
人们爱死它了。
People love it.
影响巨大。
Huge deal.
传说宫本茂最初构思Game & Watch的灵感来自东京电车上——他观察到一位商务人士百无聊赖地按着计算器按键打发时间。
Legend has it that the way Gunpei came up with the idea for doing the Game and Watch in the first place was he was on the train in Tokyo, and he observed a businessman who was also on the train, who was just killing time by pressing buttons on his calculator and doing random things on his, like, business calculator.
我认为这充分说明了八十年代人们对移动视频娱乐的潜在需求。
And I think that tells you a ton about the potential demand for on the go video entertainment in the nineteen eighties.
老兄,虽然这听起来像杜撰的,但我也真遇到过这种情况——掏出手机发现邮件已全部处理完毕。
Man, I'd say that was apocryphal, but that has literally happened to me where I pull out my phone, and I'm up to date on my email.
我在Twitter上已经刷到最新了。
I'm up to date on Twitter.
我下拉刷新。
I pull down.
没有新推文了。
No new tweets are coming in.
所以我就在主屏幕上漫无目的地划来划去,反复打开关闭同样的应用,纯粹因为这样很催眠。
So I'm, like, scrolling around on the home screen doing nothing, opening and closing the same apps over again just because it's entrancing.
现在想象一下没有智能手机,没有Twitter,没有Instagram。
Now imagine no smartphone, no Twitter, no Instagram.
说真的。
Seriously.
你还能做什么呢?
What else are you gonna do?
那时候的人到底是怎么活下来的?
Like, how did people even live back then?
太原始了。
Barbaric.
报纸啊,老兄。
Newspapers, man.
报纸。
Newspapers.
没错。
Right.
时光继续向前推进。
So time marches forward.
我们在第一集里关于任天堂的所有预言都成真了。
Everything that we talked about in episode one on Nintendo comes to pass.
NES主机发布,占据了全球95%的市场份额。
The NES launches, achieves 95% global market share.
任天堂站在世界之巅,诸如此类,诸如此类。
Nintendo's on top of the world, etcetera, etcetera.
当这一切发生时,记得没有参与NES开发的横井军平找到山内溥说:
While this is all happening, Gunpei, who remember was not involved with the development of the NES, Gunpei goes over to Yamauchi and says, hey.
我认为我们可以把NES和Game & Watch的旧技术结合起来,打造一款同样惊艳的便携式卡带游戏机。
I think we can basically combine the NES and this old Game and Watch technology and make a similarly awesome portable cartridge based console.
山内溥和任天堂其他高层的反应是:当然可以。
And Yamauchi and the rest of Nintendo are like, well, yes, of course.
如果你能做到,那就太棒了。
If you could do that, that would be amazing.
谁不想买一台这样的设备呢?
Who wouldn't wanna buy one of those things?
但NES之所以伟大,部分原因是它在技术和竞争上领先了对手好几年。
But part of what made the NES so great was it was years ahead of all the competition and technology.
那么,在便携设备领域我们要如何复制这种优势呢?
Like, how are we gonna do that in the portable era?
横井军平说:别担心,山内先生。
So Gunpei's like, don't worry, mister Yamaguchi.
我明白了。
I've got it.
我能搞定这一切。
I can make it all work.
我构思的这个设备,它能运行超棒的游戏。
This device that I have in mind, it'll play awesome games.
它的电池续航会非常出色。
It'll have great battery life.
我们能以超快速度把它推向市场。
We can get it to market super fast.
还有更厉害的,我相当确定我们能卖得比NES还便宜。
And get this, I'm pretty sure we can sell this thing even cheaper than the NES.
所有人都在说,这好得不像真的。
Everybody's like, this is too good to be true.
我们该怎么做?
How are we gonna do this?
这个承诺可不小。
It's quite the promise.
而他
And he's
就像在说,现在揭晓重磅消息。
like, here's the big reveal.
它会是黑白的。
It's gonna be black and white.
甚至不是黑白,而是黑绿配色。
And not even black and white, but black and green.
是啊。
Yeah.
愿上帝保佑山内溥。
So God bless Yamauchi.
那个人是个远见者,他完全理解这一点。
That man was a visionary and he completely got it.
作为一个非技术专家,他比任何人都更懂技术,因为他批准了GoonPay的这个项目。
And for a non technologist, he understood technology better than anybody, because he gives GoonPay the go ahead on this.
任天堂的其他人都觉得,这行不通。
Everybody else at Nintendo is like, this is not gonna work.
你知道,虽然我们还在19世纪,但19世纪的技术比你想象的更先进。
You know, I know we're still in the 19 here, but the 19 are more advanced than you might think.
就像,黑白屏就像是19世纪的东西。
Like, black and white is like the 19.
没人想要黑白屏,尤其是在本应展现先进图形技术的电子游戏市场。
Nobody wants black and white, especially in the video game market, which is supposed to be this advanced technology graphical market.
而且还要玩他们习惯看彩色版的游戏。
And to play games that they're accustomed to seeing in color.
你要把马里奥降级吗?
You're gonna go downgrade Mario?
这体验太糟糕了。
Like, that's a terrible experience.
对。
Right.
糟糕透顶的主意。
Terrible, terrible idea.
所以在内部,这个项目有个昵称——我不太确定发音,可能是'Dame Game'或'Dame Game',拼写是d a m e g a m e,基本上意味着'无望的游戏'。
So internally, this project gets the nickname I'm not exactly sure how to pronounce this, but it's either Dame Game or Dame Game, d a m e g a m e, which basically means hopeless game.
尽管如此,他们还是坚持推进。
But nevertheless, they push ahead.
1989年4月,他们先在日本发布了这款设备,随后很快以89.95美元的价格在美国上市。
And in April 1989, they released this device in Japan, followed shortly in The US for $89.95.
这款设备,当然就是Game Boy。
And this device, of course, is named the Game Boy.
我们经常在科技领域讨论这类事情——那些在我们行业中已经变得如此自然以至于我们不再思考的过去产物。
We talk about this all the time on acquired things that are in technology, in our industry, in the past that just seem so natural we don't even think about them.
为什么他们叫它Game Boy?
Why did they call it the Game Boy?
他们称它为Game Boy是为了挖苦索尼——如果是索尼制造的话,他们可能会叫它Game Man。
They called it the Game Boy to dig at Sony, who if they've made it, would have called it the Game Man.
为什么?
Why?
因为他们有Walkman(随身听)。
Because they had the Walkman.
哦,
Oh,
不可能。
no way.
真的吗?为什么?
Really why?
这难道不好笑吗?
Isn't this hilarious?
仔细想想就很明显了。
It's so obvious when you think about it.
但Game Boy就像舒洁面巾纸一样。
But the Game Boy, it's like a Kleenex.
就像是,哦,便携式掌上游戏系统。
It's like, oh, portable handheld gaming system.
这就是Game Boy。
It's a Game Boy.
这是正在崛起的任天堂看着他们在日本科技公司中类似老大哥地位的索尼,感觉我们在技术上抢先了一步。
This is Nintendo on the rise looking over at their kinda, like, big brother in Japanese technology corporations at Sony and feel like, we are beating you to the punch here on technology.
哦,我太喜欢这个了。
Oh, I love it.
我完全不知道。
I had no idea.
太他妈棒了。
So freaking awesome.
它显然取得了巨大成功。
It obviously becomes a huge success.
Game Boy在日本的首批生产量30万台几乎瞬间售罄。
So the first Japanese production run of the Game Boy sells 300,000 units almost immediately.
而美国首批110万台的货量也同样立即销售一空。
And the first US shipment of 1,100,000 units also sells out immediately.
尤其在美国市场,推动销量的杀手级应用并非儿童游戏,而是俄罗斯方块。
And the killer app, especially in The US, driving sales is not a kid's game, but Tetris.
我们就不展开讲整个故事了。
And we won't tell the whole, story.
俄罗斯方块这款游戏从共产主义苏联诞生,登陆美国Game Boy平台并成为有史以来最受欢迎的游戏,这相当不可思议。
It's pretty amazing of how Tetris, the game, comes out of the communist Soviet Union and makes it onto the Game Boy in The US and becomes the most popular game of all time.
不过你们可以去看那部电影。
But go watch the movie.
听说拍得很棒。
I've heard that it's great.
确实很棒。
It is.
没错。
Yeah.
我这周刚看过。
I watched it this week.
虽然明显有些戏剧化处理,但想想游戏名称就是'游戏'本身这件事就够疯狂的。
It's obviously a little overdramatized, but it is pretty crazy that you know, talk about the name of the game is the game.
一位苏联程序员发明的这款游戏,每个看到的人都立刻意识到它是完美之作,结果引发了一场关于谁能获得各国各平台发行权的微型地缘政治战争。
A Soviet programmer invented this game that was then so obvious to everybody who looked at it that this thing was the perfect game, that there was this massive geopolitical mini war over who could get the rights to this thing in all these different countries on all these different consoles.
还有任天堂。
And Nintendo.
在我们印象中,他们是那种为孩子们制作产品的光鲜亮丽的公司。
We think of them as this very sort of nice and shiny company making stuff for kids.
但他们为获得《俄罗斯方块》授权所采取的行动堪称传奇。
But executing the steps they needed to take to obtain the license for Tetris is a wild story.
这部电影太棒了。
The movie is awesome.
影片重点强调了一个关键点:荒川实看到Game Boy版的《俄罗斯方块》演示后,立即意识到这能将市场从小男孩和青少年群体扩展到更广泛人群。
The important thing that the movie does a good job of underscoring is Minoru Arakawa deeply understood once he saw a demo of Tetris for Game Boy that this could expand the market beyond just games for little boys and teenage boys.
这不是儿童游戏。
This is not a kid's game.
这是成年人的游戏。
This is an adult's game.
没错。
Yes.
现在我们可以把Game Boy卖给所有年龄段的人,而不仅仅是作为玩具。
And now we could sell Game Boys to everyone of all ages everywhere and not just as a toy.
完全同意。
Totally.
真有意思。
It's funny.
本你说这些时我一直在笑,任天堂给人的印象确实是那种友好可爱的公司。
Was laughing as you were saying all that Ben about, you know, image of Nintendo is this friendly, you know, cuddly company.
我认为我们在第一部分已经很好地揭穿了这一点。
I think we debunked that in part one pretty well.
没错。
Right.
马里奥笑容背后隐藏着大量商业间谍活动。
There's plenty of corporate espionage behind the Mario smile.
哦,是啊。
Oh, yeah.
多得很。
Plenty.
多得很。
Plenty.
多得很。
Plenty.
不过,a) 俄罗斯方块的故事本身就足够精彩,
But, yes, a, the Tetris story is amazing on its own.
但b) 就我们这里的目的而言,确实是美国任天堂的荒川发现了这个机会——就像东京的电玩小子横井军平看到商人在电车上玩计算器那样——人人都爱游戏。
But, b, like, for our purposes here, and it really was Arakawa in The US who saw this at Nintendo of America, the opportunity just like Gunpei saw with the businessman playing with his calculator on the train back in Tokyo, everybody loves games.
不只是孩子们。
It's not just kids.
如果他们能让这个设备易于适配,并以足够低的价格面向更广阔的市场,任天堂必将大获成功。
And if they can get this device that is easily adaptable and at a low enough price point by a broader market, Nintendo is just gonna crush it.
所以美国任天堂延续了第一部分的传统,在父亲节Game Boy发售时策划了最惊艳的广告宣传活动。
So Nintendo America, in their tradition, as we talked about in part one, they just have the most amazing advertising campaigns around the launch of the Game Boy at Father's Day.
我不确定那是1990年还是1989年。
I don't know if it was 1990 or 1989.
应该是1990年。
Must have been 1990.
他们推出了一个名为'惩罚你父亲'的营销活动。
They come out with a campaign called punish your father.
整个概念是,你爸爸一直在偷孩子的Game Boy游戏机。
And the whole thing is, like, your dad has been stealing, like, the kids Game Boy.
所以今年父亲节,通过给他买一台自己的Game Boy来惩罚他,阻止他偷孩子的游戏机。
And so for Father's Day this year, punish him by buying his own and stopping him from stealing the kids Game Boy.
这简直太绝妙了。
This is so brilliant.
他们开始在飞机杂志上投放广告,广告上写着:如果你正在读这个,说明你很无聊,你需要一台Game Boy和俄罗斯方块。
They start buying ads in airplane magazines, and the ads say, like, if you're reading this, you are obviously bored and you need a Game Boy and you need Tetris.
哦,这太棒了。
Oh, that's awesome.
他们实际上是在向
They're literally marketing it at
商务旅客推销。
business travelers.
这很合理。
Which makes sense.
说真的,现在你走进飞机,谁不在玩糖果传奇?
Seriously, you walk in an airplane today, and who's playing Candy Crush?
有很多商务旅行者。
It's a lot of business travelers.
确实如此。
Exactly.
所以在美国,46%的Game Boy玩家是成年人。
So in The US, 46% of Game Boy players are adults.
这与NES市场截然不同。
This is so different from the NES market.
它变成了这种商务人士的身份象征。
It becomes this businessman status symbol.
而且,我记得我自己的生活中就有这种情况。
And, like, I remember this in my own life.
任天堂广告里的这些情节,在我家都真实发生过。
Like, everything in these Nintendo ads actually happened in my family.
比如,我爸爸以前经常偷玩我的Game Boy。
Like, my dad used to steal my Game Boy all the time.
我们不得不给他也买了一个。
We had to go get him his own.
你用的是最初那种厚机型吗?
Did you have one of the original fat ones?
噢,当然。
Oh, totally.
它发售时我才五岁,正好是目标儿童用户群体。
I was five years old when it came out, so I was exactly in the target kid demographic.
我想我爸爸这周末和他聊过这件事。
And I think my dad I was talking with him about this this weekend.
他至今还在用老款Game Boy Advance玩原版俄罗斯方块卡带。
He still plays the original Tetris cartridge on, like, an old Game Boy Advance at this point to this day.
这就是这款游戏和这个平台的普遍吸引力。
This is how universal the appeal of this game and this system is.
简直难以置信。
It's unbelievable.
任天堂最终在前三年卖出了3200万台Game Boy,远超NES的销量。
So Nintendo ends up selling 32,000,000 Game Boys in the first three years, which is way more than the NES.
仅硬件销售额就达到约30亿美元。
That's roughly $3,000,000,000 in hardware sales alone.
Game Boy及其准继任者(实质上是同一平台)Game Boy Color,全球销量达到1.18亿台,是NES的两倍多,成为有史以来销量第四高的游戏机。
The Game Boy, and then it's sort of quasi successor, but really the same platform, the Game Boy Color, they would go on to sell a 118,000,000 units worldwide, which is over double the NES and the fourth highest selling console of all time, period.
哇。
Wow.
太惊人了。
Just amazing.
这是任天堂首次尝到甜头,也是整个行业首次体验到如何大规模扩张本已庞大的游戏市场。
And this was Nintendo's first taste and really the whole industry's first taste of massively expanding what already was a huge gaming market.
是啊。
Yeah.
它的定价也完全不同。
It also was at a completely different price point.
父母不让我买家用游戏机,但我第一台游戏设备是Game Boy Color,我记得彩色版大概100多美元,而家用主机要200多美元。
I wasn't allowed to get a console, but my first video game system was a Game Boy Color because I think it was, I don't a little over a $100 or something for the color one versus around the 200 or more price point for the at home consoles.
它同时抓住了儿童游戏市场和休闲成人游戏市场,将两者融合在一台设备中,而把核心游戏市场留给了家用主机。
It takes both the kids gaming market and the casual adults gaming market that it creates and marries those into one device and leaves the core gaming market to the home console.
没错。
Yeah.
当《精灵宝可梦》刚推出时,你正好是它的目标用户群体。
You would have been, like, exactly in the target demo for Pokemon when it came out.
完全正确。
Absolutely.
那当然。
You bet.
我买了半透明紫色的Game Boy Color,就为了能玩《精灵宝可梦·蓝》。
I bought the translucent purple Game Boy Color so that I could get Pokemon blue.
天啊。
Oh my god.
现在正在听的听众里,估计70%的人都这么干过。
Probably, like, 70% of people listening right now.
不管他们现在多大年纪,都经历过这个阶段。
Regardless of their age are in bucket.
我当初也买了首发《精灵宝可梦》,尽管那时我已经是个青少年了。
I mean, I bought Pokemon when it came out even though I was a teenager at the time.
是啊。
Yep.
好的,听众们。
Okay, listeners.
现在正是向大家介绍节目的新朋友Claude的好时机,相信很多听众对它并不陌生。
Now is a great time to introduce a new friend of the show who many of you will be familiar with, Claude.
Claude是由Anthropic开发的人工智能助手,它迅速成为我们制作《Acquired》节目的重要工具,也是全球数百万用户和企业的首选AI。
Claude is an AI assistant built by Anthropic, and it's quickly become an essential tool for us in creating acquired and the go to AI for millions of people and businesses around the world.
没错。
Yep.
我们很兴奋能与他们合作,因为Claude正代表着我们《Acquired》最热衷报道的那种突破性技术变革。
We're excited to be partnering with them because Claude represents exactly the kind of step change technology that we love covering here at Acquired.
这是一个从根本上改变人们工作方式的强大工具。
It's a powerful tool that fundamentally changes how people work.
Ben,我知道你最近在《Acquired》的工作中已经用过Claude了。
I know, Ben, you have used Claude for some Acquired work recently.
是的。
Yes.
听众们,过去我每次录制节目前要花四个多小时,把原始笔记里的日期整理成表格放在脚本开头。
So listeners, I used to take four plus hours the day before recording to take all the dates from my raw notes and put them in a table at the top of my script for recording day.
在做劳力士那期节目时,我把原始笔记直接输入Claude让它帮我完成这个工作,效果太神奇了。
On the Rolex episode, I actually fed my raw notes into Claude and asked it if it could do that for me, which was amazing.
我只用了二十秒就整理出了那期节目最重要的100个日期。
I just got my most important 100 dates for the episode done in, like, twenty seconds.
你给我发了消息
You texted me
放到这张桌子上。
to this table.
太棒了。
It was awesome.
是啊。
Yeah.
这样我就腾出了半天时间,转而专注于讲解机械表的工作原理,我真的很高兴能花时间做这件事而不是做桌子。
That freed up an extra half day that I used instead to focus on explaining how a mechanical watch works, which I'm so glad I got to spend the time doing that instead of making the table.
完全同意。
Totally.
太酷了。
So cool.
其实我刚和Claude聊过,为我们今年夏天晚些时候要合作的大项目头脑风暴,它提供了超乎想象的帮助。
I was actually just chatting with Claude to brainstorm ideas for something big that you and I are working on for later this summer, and it was insanely helpful.
听众朋友们,请持续关注后续详情。
Listeners, stay tuned to hear all about that.
没错。
Yes.
所以听众们,使用Claude作为你的个人或商业AI助手,你将与众多优秀企业为伍。
So listeners, by using Claude as your personal or business AI assistant, you'll be in great company.
像Salesforce、Figma、GitLab、Intercom和Coinbase等组织都在他们的产品中使用Claude。
Organizations like Salesforce, Figma, GitLab, Intercom, and Coinbase all use Claude in their products.
所以无论你是独自头脑风暴,还是与数千人的团队协作建设,Claude都能提供帮助。
So whether you are brainstorming alone or you're building with a team of thousands, Claude is here to help.
如果你、你的公司或投资组合公司想使用Claude,请访问claude.com。
And if you, your company, or your portfolio companies wanna use Claude, head on over to claude.com.
就是claude.com,或者点击节目说明中的链接。
That's claude.com, or click the link in the show notes.
好的。
Okay.
所以我们正处在这个时代。
So we're in this era.
Game Boy卖得火爆,但NES已经有点过时了。
Game Boy is flying off the shelves, but the NES is getting a little long in the tooth.
那么整个超级任天堂是怎么回事?
And so how does the whole Super Nintendo thing work?
是的。
Yeah.
这里我们要换个话题了。
Here's where we're gonna change gears.
Game Boy是任天堂又一个惊人的巨大成功。
So Game Boy, another incredible smash success for Nintendo.
但在家用主机方面,我们正进入一些动荡的水域。
But back on the home console side of things, we're entering some choppy waters here.
上集结束时提到,三分之一的美国家庭拥有NES。
So where we ended last episode, one third of US households have an NES.
任天堂占据全球约90%的市场份额。
Nintendo has roughly 90% global market share.
他们拥有惊人的规模经济、网络经济和分销能力的组合。
They've got this amazing combination scale economy, network economy, distribution power.
在NES八位机时代的中期,任天堂的护城河看起来坚不可摧。
By the midpoint of the eight bit generation in the NES, you know, it looks like Nintendo's moat is impenetrable.
而事实上,在八位机时代确实如此。
And the reality was for the eight bit generation, it was.
市场上还有其他竞争者。
There were other competitors on the market.
还记得前雅达利的硬件部门吗?当华纳兄弟出售它时,雅达利被分拆成了两家公司。
The hardware side of the former Atari remember, Atari got split into two companies when Warner Brothers sold it off.
雅达利硬件部门发布了一款新主机——7800。
The hardware side of Atari releases a new console, the 7,800.
它卖出了约100万台,算是勉强跟跑。
It sells about a million units, like, okay, you know, also ran.
作为对比,NES生命周期内卖出了6200万台。
And the NES lifetime sold 62,000,000, just to put that in context.
世嘉为了应对日本的NES,他们发布了一款名为SG-1000的家用游戏机。
Sega, in response to the NES in Japan, they release a home video game console called the s g 1,000.
表现尚可,但也只卖出了约100万台。
It does okay, but also only sells about a million units.
他们将该主机的第三个版本Mark III出口到全球,命名为Master System。
They take the third revision of that console called the Mark three, and they export it to the rest of the world as a system called the Master System.
它在美国惨败,最终将分销权卖给了Tonka卡车玩具公司。
It flops in The US where they sell off the distribution rights to it to Tonka, like the Tonka truck toy company.
Tonka公司完全不知道该怎么处理这个东西。
It's Tonka has no idea what to do with this thing.
同时,这也突显了人们很大程度上将其视为儿童玩具。
And also, this underscores how much people thought of this as kids toys.
纯粹的组合就是美泰、Tyco和Tonka。
The pure set is Mattel and Tyco and Tonka.
孩之宝。
Hasbro.
没错。
Exactly.
这里是玩具货架。
This is the toy aisle.
在美国没人懂这些东西。
Nobody understands this stuff in The US.
但重要的是,世嘉这款所谓的'大师系统'主机在欧洲和巴西表现相当不错。
But importantly, this, quote, unquote, master system console from Sega does fairly well in Europe and in Brazil.
展开剩余字幕(还有 480 条)
最终它在全球卖出了1000万到1500万台。
And so it ends up selling between ten and fifteen million units worldwide.
虽然还是比不上NES,但对世嘉来说已经算是个成功,给了他们一些希望。
Again, no NES, but this is enough of a success from Sega to give them some hope.
他们觉得:'也许我们应该继续投资家用主机业务'。
They're like, well, maybe we should continue investing in the home console business.
正如我们在第一部分提到的,当时的世嘉主要还是个街机公司。
And as we mentioned in part one, Sega at this point was primarily an arcade company.
你知道这个吗?
Did you know this?
世嘉实际上是由美国人创立的?
Sega was actually founded by Americans?
是的。
Yes.
尽管它是日本公司,但最初是一家美国公司。
Even though it's a Japanese company, it was originally an American company.
涉及二战期间在夏威夷的军事服务。
Involved in, like, World War two military service in Hawaii.
是这样吗?
Is that right?
确实如此。
Exactly.
所以世嘉(Sega)其实是'服务游戏'的合成词,这家公司最初是为了制造类似任天堂那种赌博游戏或伪装成普通游戏的赌博机而成立的,后来逐渐转型为为全球美军基地生产街机游戏。
So Sega is a portmanteau of service games, and the company was started to make kinda like Nintendo, like gambling games or thinly disguised gambling games, and that morphs into arcade games for US military service bases around the world.
真疯狂。
Crazy.
我很欣赏这些公司如何通过不断演变来适应并生存下来。
I love how these companies evolve to sort of morph and survive over time.
他们明白自己无法取代NES和八位机时代,但他们认为或许可以效仿任天堂当年凭借NES取得的巨大优势——就像史蒂夫·乔布斯推出iPhone那样——我们要打造一款领先竞争对手数年的产品。
They know that they're not gonna dethrone the NES and the eight bit generation, but they think maybe we can try and do what Nintendo did to get this huge advantage with the NES, which remember was, just like Steve Jobs in the iPhone, we wanna produce something that is years ahead of the competition.
我们或许真能在这里实现弯道超车,对任天堂如法炮制。
We might actually be able to leapfrog Nintendo here and do the same thing to them.
而世嘉此刻实际上拥有两个任天堂所不具备的优势。
And Sega actually has two advantages at this point in time that Nintendo does not have.
其一,自1983年红白机在日本问世以来,摩尔定律持续发展,如今所有人都能获得更先进且更便宜的处理器。
One, Moore's Law has continued to progress since 1983 when the Famicom came out in Japan, and more advanced and cheaper processors are now available to everybody.
具体来说,16位处理器已足够便宜,可以将其应用于客厅这种准儿童玩具的家用游戏机上。
Specifically, 16 bit processors are now cheap enough that you can put these in a living room quasi kids toy home console.
显然,任天堂也掌握了这项技术。
Nintendo, obviously, also had access to this technology.
但某种程度上陷入了创新者困境,他们确实缺乏推进的动力。
But sort of in a innovator's dilemma type situation, they don't really have the motivation to pursue it.
因为NES对他们来说就是一台持续带来收益的礼物机。
Because the NES is the gift that keeps on giving for them.
他们想尽可能延长那个游戏机世代的生命周期。
Like, they wanna keep that console generation going as long as possible.
没错。
Right.
就像他们最终总得推出新品,但如果能把这个‘最终’再推迟一年,又没人逼他们出手,那就是非常好的消息。
It's like they do have to come out with something eventually, but if they can delay that eventually another year and no one forces their hand, that is very good news.
正是如此。
Exactly.
而世嘉,再次因为他们在街机业务上的巨大成功,街机业务的迭代速度远快于主机业务。
And Sega, again, because they were so successful in the arcade business, and the arcade business moves so much faster than the console business.
新技术、新游戏、新游戏概念层出不穷。
New technologies, new games, new game concepts are coming out all the time.
他们当时已经拥有相当强大的16位街机主板,用于运行一些热门街机游戏,如《忍》或《战斧》。
They already have a pretty robust 16 bit arcade board that they've been using on some of their arcade hits at the time, like Shinobi or Golden Axe.
这些都是运行在世嘉生产的先进街机主板上的16位游戏。
Those were 16 bit games running on advanced arcade boards that Sega was producing.
那么你说的8位世代、16位世代是什么意思呢?
And so what does it mean when you say the eight bit generation, the 16 bit generation?
最终我们会发展到32位、64位。
Eventually, we'll get to 32, 64.
事实上,64位成为了任天堂的营销卖点之一。
64 becomes part of the marketing, in fact, for Nintendo.
是的。
Yes.
这基本上意味着该机器的CPU一次可以处理8位数据。
It basically means that the CPU for the machine can process eight bits at a time.
因此这会影响所有下游环节,包括声音、图像和处理能力。
And so that affects everything downstream, sound, graphics, processing power.
本质上这就是CPU为了并行处理信息所拥有的有效带宽。
It's basically the, effectively bandwidth that the CPU has in order to process information concurrently.
对。
Right.
具体来说,我记得正是在这个从8位处理器跃迁到16位处理器的时期,游戏能够使用的调色板发生了改变。
And specifically, I remember at this time in the jump from eight bit to 16 bit processors, like the color palettes that the games could use.
比如,8位处理器甚至无法容纳那么多颜色,但16位处理器就能支持数百种额外颜色供游戏使用。
Like, with eight bit processors, you couldn't even fit so many colors in there, but 16 bit processors, you could fit hundreds more different colors that could be used in the game.
你知道的,就是这类东西。
You know, stuff like that.
是的。
Yep.
当然,这类东西是指数级增长的。
And, of course, this stuff is exponential.
那么八位是什么意思呢?
So eight bits, what does that mean?
嗯,这意味着有2的8次方种不同的可能组合。
Well, two to the eighth different combinations that are possible.
所以它处理的每块数据可以有256种不同的值。
So 256 different values in each chunk of data that it's processing.
你可以看到从8位升级到16位后,可能值从256种跃升至65,536种,这确实是巨大的飞跃。
You could see how going from eight bit to 16 bit, which takes you from 256 different possible values to 65,536 different values, it is a sort of enormous leap forward.
就在这个时间节点,各种因素交织在一起,确实给了世嘉一个突破市场的机会,尽管NES当时占据主导地位。
Right at this moment in time, it's this whole soup of factors that come together to really give Sega an opportunity to break into the market even though the NES is so dominant.
年长的消费者,特别是青少年和成年人,他们重视图形性能,只要游戏质量能跟得上,他们愿意为此买单。
Older consumers, especially teenagers and adults, they value graphical performance, and they're willing to pay for it as long as they're good games to actually back it up.
所以世嘉就想,我们已经在街机上开发了一堆很棒的16位游戏。
And so Sega's like, well, we've got a bunch of really good 16 bit games that we've made for the arcades.
我们或许能做到。
We can probably do this.
没错。
Yeah.
有趣的是,在那个年代图形性能如此重要。
It is interesting how much graphical capability mattered in those days.
如今它依然重要,但重要性有所降低。
And it still matters today, but it kinda matters less.
当你从接近照片级真实感提升到更接近照片级真实感时,确实会更令人印象深刻,在4K电视上观看也更有趣。
When you go from, like, almost photorealistic to even more almost photorealistic, it makes it more impressive, and it makes it more interesting to look at on a four k TV.
但这真的比在Switch上玩游戏更有趣吗?
But does it literally make it more fun than playing something on my Switch?
可能不会。
Probably not.
但在那个年代,这确实是巨大的飞跃。
But back in those days, that's a huge leap forward.
完全同意。
Totally.
我的意思是,即使在Switch和虚拟主机上,我也喜欢回去玩超任和世嘉MD的游戏——Switch的虚拟主机就能做到,这非常有趣。
I mean, even, like, on the Switch and on the virtual consoles, I love going back and playing Super Nintendo games and Sega Genesis games, which you could do on the virtual console of the Switch, which is so fun.
但回到NES时代
But going back to the NES era
确实很难。
It's tough.
我是玩着那些游戏长大的。
I grew up with those games.
我记得玩过它们并非常喜欢。
I remember playing them and loving them.
但是,我还能回去玩16位游戏。
But, like, I can go back to 16 bit games.
8位游戏确实挺难的。
Eight bit is pretty tough.
是啊。
Yeah.
我要说的是,我现在还在玩N64上的《任天堂明星大乱斗》。
And I'll say, like, I still play my n 64 Super Smash Brothers.
这游戏比Switch上的《大乱斗》更有趣。
That game is more fun than Super Smash on my Switch.
所以我觉得,大概到64位图形时,更多位数就不再意味着更多乐趣了。
So you do hit some point, I think, around 64 bit graphics where, like, more bits no longer equals more fun.
那么回到16位的世嘉。
So back to Sega here in 16 bit.
1988年,他们在日本推出了名为Mega Drive的新主机。
In 1988, they launched a new console called the Mega Drive in Japan.
那是在88年底,然后他们在89年初就在美国推出了。
That was in late eighty eight, and then they turn around in early nineteen eighty nine and launch it in The US.
他们当然认为Mega Drive可能不是个适合美国市场的品牌名。
And they decide, of course, that the Mega Drive is probably not a good brand name for The US.
所以他们将其命名为Sega Genesis。
And so they name it the Sega Genesis.
世嘉在美国的新开端。
New beginning for Sega in America.
是的。
Yes.
令人惊讶的是,它在日本销量一直不佳,无论是刚推出时还是之后都是如此。
Surprisingly, it doesn't sell well in Japan, either at launch or really ever.
这真的很奇怪。
It's really weird.
我想不通原因。
I couldn't figure out why.
是啊。
Yeah.
也许就像任天堂在日本牢牢掌控着分销渠道、游戏开发者资源和市场份额,以至于即使是世嘉制作的优质街机游戏,对日本市场来说也不够有吸引力。
Maybe just like Nintendo had such a lock on distribution and develop game developers and market share in Japan that even, like, the quality arcade games that Sega was making wasn't enough for the Japanese market.
而且它在日本推出时还没有索尼克。
And when it launched in Japan, it didn't have Sonic yet.
没错。
Exactly.
嗯,我们稍后会讲到这点。
Well, we will get to that.
所以它在美国也没有索尼克。
So it doesn't have Sonic in The US either.
所以即使你认为自己了解Genesis在美国的游戏机战争历史,或者像我一样亲身经历过,我也不记得事情发生的具体细节。
So even if you think you know the history of the console wars in the Genesis in America or you lived it, as I did, I didn't remember this exactly as it happened.
因此最初,Genesis在美国也是失败的。
So, initially, the Genesis is also a flop in America.
第一年销量约50万台,你知道的,怎么说呢,还行吧,但这也没比老款Master System好多少。
It sells about 500,000 units in the first year, which, you know, like, again, okay, but this isn't that much better than the old Master System here.
任天堂并不一定将其视为具有竞争力的威胁,觉得也就那样吧。
And Nintendo isn't necessarily viewing it as the competitive threat that says, okay.
我们需要尽快推出下一代系统。
We need to release our next generation system ASAP.
他们的反应就是,好吧。
They're like, okay.
不错。
Cool.
这个也赢不了我们,所以我想我们就继续靠着NES的销量吧。
This one also isn't beating us, so I guess let's keep riding the sales of the NES.
没错。
Right.
我们为什么要改变现状呢?
Why would we change things?
于是在1990年,世嘉决定:嘿。
So the next year in 1990, Sega decides like, hey.
我们需要做出些改变。
We need to make a change here.
具体来说,我们需要对世嘉美国分公司进行改革。
And specifically, we need to make a change in Sega of America.
所以他们任命了新CEO,一个叫Tom Kalinski的人。
So they install a new CEO, a guy named Tom Kalinski.
如果你想找一位高管来扭转你陷入困境的游戏主机业务并采取不同做法,你大概不会聘用汤姆。
Now if you're looking for an executive to come in and turn around your ailing video game console business to do things differently, you probably wouldn't go hire Tom.
汤姆现在是个玩具业高管。
Tom, at this point, is a toy executive.
他年近五十。
He's in his late forties.
他对电子游戏一窍不通,最近一份工作是美泰公司CEO,后因业绩不佳被董事会罢免。
He knows nothing about video games, and his most recent job is he was the CEO of Mattel before being ousted by the board for underperformance.
他的重大成就是芭比娃娃。
And his big success was Barbie.
没错。
Right.
是啊。
Yeah.
这实在看不出和电子游戏有什么关系。
This doesn't exactly scream like video games.
虽然电子游戏属于玩具市场的一部分,但世嘉正试图改变这种局面。
Now video games are part of the toy market, but Sega's trying to change this.
他们试图吸引青少年和成年玩家。
They're trying to appeal to teenagers and older adults.
但事实证明,汤姆其实还有第二春,最终成为世嘉能做出的最佳人选。
Well, it turns out that actually, Tom had a second act in him and ends up being the very best hire that Sega ever could have made.
因为他上任后就说:伙计们,如果我们的战略真要像当时营销口号说的那样——'Genesis能做到任天堂做不到的事'。
Because he shows up and he's like, guys, if our strategy is to literally do what the marketing slogan was at the time when he showed up, which is Genesis does what Nintendon't.
这其实挺棒的。
Which is kinda great.
是啊。
Yeah.
但问题在于他们在执行上做得相当糟糕。
The problem though is they were doing, like, a piss poor job of executing on it.
所以即便有这么好的标语,世嘉在电视上播的实际广告却是这种特别老套的八十年代风格。
So even with this great tagline, the actual commercials that Sega was showing on TV were this really cheesy eighties jingle.
我连试都不想试。
I'm not even gonna try it.
真的,别去搜。
Like, don't look it up.
就是特别,怎么说呢,小家子气。
Like, they're just, like, weenie.
所以当汤姆出现时——令人意外的是他来自玩具行业——他的态度是:既然要做,就必须全力以赴。
So when Tom shows up, and surprisingly, coming from the toy industry, he's like, if we're gonna do this, we gotta go all out.
我们不能还在这里一只脚留在玩具行业。
We can't still, like, keep one foot in the toy industry here.
我们要彻底走朋克摇滚路线,MTV风格,直接吸引青少年。
We need to go full on punk rock, MTV, directly appealing to teenagers.
我们的广告里再也不要有这种八十年代的调调了。
None of this, like, eighties jingles in our commercials anymore.
绝对不行。
No.
它必须成为众所周知的世嘉(Sega),纳特·希恩(Nat Sheen),我们需要让整个公司转型。
It needs to be the what everyone knows, Sega, Nat Sheen, and we need to pivot the whole company.
世嘉必须成为一家激进的电子游戏公司,就这么简单。
Sega needs to be the aggressive video game company, full stop.
是的。
Yes.
于是他向日本世嘉董事会做了汇报。
So he presents to the Sega board back in Japan.
他飞往东京,提交了一份四点计划,详细说明美国世嘉将如何取代任天堂。
He flies over to Tokyo and presents a four point plan of how exactly Sega of America is gonna dethrone Nintendo.
这计划很棒。
And it's great.
他受聘的方式——戴维和我都读过这本《主机战争》,如果你想了解整个细节,这本书非常有趣。
The way he gets recruited for this David and I both read this book, console wars, which is really fun if you want the whole blow by blow on this.
汤姆实际上是在夏威夷海滩上家庭度假时,被世嘉董事长亲自招募的。
Tom actually gets recruited by the chairman of Sega while he's on a family vacation in Hawaii on the beach.
世嘉董事长走到他面前问:汤姆·卡林斯基?
The chairman of Sega walks up to him and says, Tom Kalinski?
尽管任天堂的故事很吸引人,但它的吸引力在于他们取得了长期胜利。
And for as compelling as the Nintendo story is, it's compelling because they won long term.
在这个短暂的MD主机时代,我认为世嘉可能拥有比汤姆·卡林斯基更令人印象深刻的叙事和英雄之旅。
For this brief moment of time, the Genesis era, I think Sega probably has an even more impressive narrative and sort of hero's journey with Tom Kalinsky.
哦,完全同意。
Oh, totally.
我们马上要讨论他们如何执行这个四点计划,但这简直太绝妙了。
We're gonna get into what they do with this four point plan, but it is freaking brilliant.
我认为这是我们在节目中见过的最佳案例,展示了如何与根深蒂固的行业巨头竞争。
I think this is the best example we've ever seen on the show of how to compete against an entrenched incumbent.
没错。
Yeah.
他们简直是直接走到任天堂面前,一拳打在对方脸上。
They literally walk up to Nintendo and just punch them in the mouth.
这感觉实在太棒了。
Like, it's so great.
现在我来公布这个计划。
So here's the plan.
第一点,我们需要先发制人地发起价格战。
Point one, we need to preemptively start a price war.
我们知道任天堂正在研发新的16位系统。
So we know that Nintendo is working on a new 16 bit system.
他们只是行动迟缓,因为他们完全没有紧迫感。
They're just dragging their feet because they feel no sense of urgency here.
根据任天堂的历史和我们第一部分讨论的内容,我们知道他们喜欢通过硬件赚钱。
We also know, given Nintendo's history, everything we talked about in part one, that they like to make money on their hardware.
他们追求高硬件利润率。
They want high hardware margins.
所以我们要这样做。
So here's what we're gonna do.
我们估计超级任天堂发售价会定在250美元左右。
We think they're probably gonna price the Super Nintendo when it comes out at the equivalent of $250.
目前Genesis我们卖200美元。
We're selling the Genesis for 200 right now.
我们要先发制人把价格降到150美元。
We're gonna preemptively cut that to a $150.
这是完美的反向定位策略。
And this is perfect counter positioning.
任天堂的既定战略是靠硬件赚钱。
Nintendo's incumbent strategy is to make money on hardware.
我们该怎么办?
What are we gonna do?
我们不打算靠硬件赚钱。
We're not gonna make money on hardware.
没错。
Exactly.
所以我们要先发制人,迫使他们降低超级任天堂的成本。
So we're gonna preemptively put pressure on them to cut costs on the Super Nintendo.
我觉得连汤姆和世嘉都没意识到这有多重要。
I don't think Tom and Sega even realized how important this would become.
先记下这一点。
Put a pin in this.
我们稍后再讨论这个。
We're gonna come back to this in one sec.
这是关键一步。
This is a critical move.
尤其是先发制人。
Especially the preemptive.
不只是要让他们赚不到钱。
It's not just we're gonna make it so they can't make money.
而是在他们推出之前,我们必须让他们有成本意识。
It's that before they launch, we have to make them cost conscious.
第二,我们需要改变游戏包,比如美国Genesis附带的捆绑游戏。
Number two, we need to change the pack in game, like the bundled game that the Genesis comes with in America.
我都忘了这件事。
I had forgotten about this.
游戏原版是个街机移植作,叫《兽王记》,我觉得作为街机游戏还算可以。
The original pack in game was a, arcade port called Altered Beast, which I think it was an okay arcade game.
但也没多好。
Like, it wasn't that good.
它不如《战斧》之类的游戏优秀,而且可能是有史以来美版本地化标题最烂的一个。
Like, it wasn't as good as Golden Axe and whatnot, but it maybe had the worst American localized title ever.
谁会去买一款叫《兽王记》的游戏啊?
Like, who's gonna buy a game called Altered Beast?
确实。
Yeah.
‘变异’这个词确实让人没什么特别感觉。
Altered doesn't really make you feel one way or another.
这个词有点缺乏启发性。
It's sort of an uninspiring word.
是啊。
Yeah.
变异野兽。
Altered beast.
我甚至不知道那是什么意思。
I don't even know what that means.
所以汤姆说,听着,我知道,在我刚来的时候你们招募我时,你们日本世嘉那边正在开发一个所谓的'马里奥杀手'绝密项目。
So Tom's like, look, I know, you know, when you were recruiting me in my early time here, you of Sega in Japan over there, you're working on a top secret, quote unquote, Mario killer game.
而且我知道你们计划把这个游戏单独发售,不和主机捆绑,因为你们想从这款明知会大卖的游戏里最大化收益。
And I know that your plan is to sell that separately from the system because you wanna maximize revenue from this game that you know is gonna be a pretty good seller.
我们需要采纳这一点,并将其整合到美国的系统中。
We need to take that, and we need to bundle it in to the system here in America.
我知道这会让我们亏钱,但我们必须扩大装机量。
I know we're gonna lose money on this, but we gotta up our install base.
我们还需要一款能随每台Genesis主机附赠的、足以击败马里奥的游戏。
And we need a Mario killer that is gonna be with every single Genesis.
所以这是第二点。
So that's point two.
第三点,说到游戏,这真是个绝妙的见解。
Point three, speaking of games, and this is also just a brilliant insight.
他说,我们需要为美国玩家制作美式游戏。
He's like, we need to make American games for American audiences.
这意味着两件事。
And that means two things.
第一,我们需要在美国建立自己的世嘉开发工作室,这是任天堂所没有的。
One, we need to have our own Sega development studios here in America, which Nintendo doesn't have.
而且以后也不会有。
And never went on to have.
对吧?
Right?
我认为美国至今仍没有任天堂的游戏开发工作室。
I don't think there's a Nintendo game development studio in America still.
没有。
Nope.
他们最接近的是第二方工作室Rare,但他们愚蠢地让微软收购了它,当时微软正在推出Xbox。
The closest that they had was their second party studio, Rare, which they stupidly let get acquired by Microsoft when Microsoft is launching the Xbox.
但Rare制作了《大金刚国度》和《黄金眼64》,并为超级任天堂和N64开发了许多优秀游戏。
But Rare made Donkey Kong Country and GoldenEye 64 and lots of great games for the Super Nintendo and the N64.
那是在英国。
That was in The UK.
他们从未在美国设立过开发工作室。
They never had development studios in America.
所以汤姆说,任天堂错失了一个巨大的机会,我们也是。
So Tom says, Nintendo's missing a huge opportunity, and so are we.
我们需要在这里建立自己的工作室,并真正接纳美国的第三方游戏开发者,而任天堂他们并不接纳任何第三方游戏开发者。
We need to have our own studios here, and we need to really embrace American third party game developers, which Nintendo they aren't embracing any third party game developers.
任天堂不行。
Nintendon't.
任天堂做不到。
Nintendo don't.
确实如此。
Exactly.
具体来说,这意味着世嘉此刻正与我们的朋友Trip Hawkins及电子艺界进行激烈谈判——正如我们几年前在Trip那期节目中讨论过的那样。
And specifically, what this means, Sega at this point is locked in a heated negotiation, shall we say, with our buddy, Trip Hawkins and Electronic Arts, as we talked about on our episode with Trip back a few years ago.
Trip简直太棒了。
Trip is just awesome.
他亲口向我们复述了这段往事。
He literally recounted the story for us.
完全同意。
Totally.
稍后我们会详细讨论这点。
So more on that in a second.
但Tom当时说:我们需要解决所有争议。
But Tom's like, we need to settle all of that contentiousness.
虽然还没发展到诉讼阶段,但我们必须解决这些问题。
It it hadn't progressed to litigation yet, but we need to settle all that.
我们需要将电子艺界纳入Genesis阵营,让他们进入家用主机市场。
We need to bring electronic arts into the Genesis fold and bring them into the home console market.
最后第四点,正如我们提到的:营销中不能再使用这些八十年代的广告歌了。
And then the fourth point, as we alluded to, no more of this eighties jingles in our marketing.
我们将紧随任天堂之后,直接推出我们的商业广告和宣传活动。
We're gonna go directly straight on after Nintendo with our commercials and our advertising.
那么自然地,考虑到这个作为弱势竞争者如何竞争的绝妙计划,你认为世嘉母公司董事会对这一切会怎么说?
So naturally, given this brilliant plan of how to compete as an underdog, what do you think the Sega parent company board says to all of this?
正如公司董事会惯常的做法,他们否决了这个计划。
They reject it as corporate boards want to do.
但幸运的是,本,就像你说的,当时的董事长中村雅夫站在汤姆这边,他推动并通过了这个计划,表示同意。
But fortunately, Ben, like you said, the chairman at the time, Hayao Nakayama, he sides with Tom, and he pushes through this plan and says, okay.
我雇你在美国自己做决定。
I hired you to make your own decisions in America.
我相信你了解美国市场。
I trust you in understanding the American market.
你可以放手去做这件事。
You can go ahead and do this.
我们不会在日本这么做,但你在美国可以这样做。
We're not gonna do this in Japan, but you can do this in America.
这对汤姆来说是一场职业豪赌,因为无论成败,这都可能是他的最后一搏。
And this is kind of a career bet for Tom, because this is probably his last act one way or another.
如果他失败了,他将以壮烈的方式退出。
If he fails, he goes out in spectacular glory.
但如果他成功了,这可能会是他接下来一段时间的工作。
But if he succeeds, then this is probably his job for a while.
显然,这个市场非常庞大。
And clearly, this market is enormous.
如果成功的话,担任美国世嘉的CEO是一份相当不错的工作。
Being CEO of Sega of America is a pretty great job if they succeed.
是的。
Yep.
那么接下来会发生什么?
So what happens?
让我们逐条分析这些要点。
Let's go through each of these points.
第一点,先发制人的价格战。
Point one, the preemptive price war.
天啊,这一点太重要了。
Oh, boy, was this important.
众所周知,任天堂正在研发超级任天堂。
So Nintendo was, as everybody knew, working on the Super Famicom slash Super NES.
它将于1990年底在日本上市,1991年底在美国上市,比Genesis晚了两年。
It would come out in Japan in late nineteen ninety and in The US in late nineteen ninety one, two years after the Genesis.
他们发布时的定价是日本25000日元,美国199美元——这比世嘉Genesis降价后的价格还高出50美元。
When they launch it, they launch at 25,000 yen in Japan and $1.99 in The US, which even that was $50 more than Sega had cut the price of the Genesis to.
但比价格更重要的是,任天堂原本计划在超级任天堂中加入向下兼容功能,使其也能运行NES游戏。
More importantly, though, than Sega being cheaper than Nintendo from day one, is that Nintendo was planning originally to include backward compatibility in the Super Nintendo so that it could also play NES games.
当我在研究中读到这一点时,我的反应就像:天啊。
So when I read about this in the research, I was just like, oh my god.
他们搞砸了。
They blew it.
当然,这是正确的战略举措,旨在利用已有数千万任天堂客户这一事实。
Which that is, of course, the right strategic move to leverage the fact that already have tens of millions of people that are Nintendo customers.
你希望推出能确保他们继续成为任天堂客户的产品,但竞争对手却降价了。
You wanna come out with something that makes sure they remain Nintendo customers, but your competitor dropped the price.
于是你决定削减某些功能,而被削减的正是能让你不再利用庞大装机量优势的部分。
So you decided to cut something, and the thing you cut is the thing that makes it so you no longer take advantage of the fact that you have this huge install base.
那本可以让你顺利过渡到新一代产品。
That would have given you a stair step into the new generation.
完全同意。
Totally.
任天堂当时估算,在超级任天堂中加入向下兼容功能会使物料成本增加约75美元。
So Nintendo estimated that including backwards compatibility in the Super NES would add about $75 to the bill of materials.
哇哦。
Woah.
而且
And
这代价太大了。
That's huge.
是啊。
Yeah.
因此与其将超级任天堂定价为250或275甚至300美元——因为世嘉已抢先降价至1.5美元
And so rather than come out with the Super Nintendo priced at $250 or 275 or $300, because the Genesis had already been preemptively cut to $1.50.
他们觉得:我们实在不能这么定价。
They're like, we really can't do that.
我们把这75美元的成本去掉,定价200美元吧。
Let's cut out this $75 cost and come out at 200.
很难说这是任天堂的失误与否。
Hard to say if this was a mistake on Nintendo's part or not.
他们某种程度上不得不这么做。
They kinda had to do this.
毫无疑问,真正的失误是没有乘胜追击,早点推出超级任天堂。
Certainly, the mistake was not pushing their advantage and coming out with the Super Nintendo earlier.
他们完全有能力做到的。
They absolutely could've.
他们让Genesis抢先占领市场,然后这场先发制人的价格战迫使他们放弃原本在新一代主机上最大的优势——将现有用户基础迁移到超级任天堂,结果相当于对整个行业按了重启键,这太疯狂了。
They let the Genesis beat them to market, and then this preemptive price war forces them to take what really would have been their best built in advantage for the new generation of porting the existing install base over to the Super NES and just kinda hit reset on the whole industry, which is crazy.
真有意思。
It's funny.
强者恒强。
Strength leads to strength.
如果任天堂当时能激进些,主动淘汰自己的产品,他们本可以占据绝佳优势。
If Nintendo had just been aggressive and obsoleted themselves, they would have probably been in a great position.
但他们反而选择了保守。
But instead, they sat back.
某种程度上试图采取守势。
They sort of tried to play defense.
他们试图给NES尽可能长的盈利周期来持续赚取丰厚利润。
They tried to give enough running room to their NES to keep making good money as long as possible.
这就给世嘉留下了可乘之机,让他们得以施展这一招。
Then it left this opening for Sega to come in and pull this move.
突然间,任天堂就失去了可以倚仗的优势。
And then suddenly, Nintendo no longer has an advantage to leverage.
就像橄榄球里的预防性防守战术。
It's like the classic football prevent defense thing.
预防性防守只会让你与胜利失之交臂。
Well, prevent defense prevents you from winning.
你必须持续保持进攻的侵略性。
You gotta keep being aggressive in playing offense.
这让我想起了史上最棒的企业价值观宣言——传奇的耐克公司价值观。
It reminds me of, I think, my favorite company values sheet of all time, which is the legendary Nike corporate values.
太经典了。
So good.
我记得第二条就是'我们永远处于进攻状态'。
I think it's number two is we're on offense all the time.
没错。
Yes.
对。
Yeah.
靠预防性防守是赢不了的。
You don't win by playing the prevent defense.
确实不行。
Nope.
绝对不行。
Absolutely not.
我认为或许可以给任天堂一些宽容,毕竟这是他们第一次经历这种情况。
And I think we could maybe give some leeway to Nintendo here in that this was all happening for the first time.
当时人们还没有完全理解游戏主机行业的运作规律。
People didn't totally understand console business dynamics yet.
我的意思是,如果快进到今天,索尼和微软不仅在新主机上始终保持向下兼容,还实现了向前兼容。
I mean, if you fast forward to today, Sony and Microsoft not only always have backwards compatibility in each new console they release, they also do forwards compatibility.
比如未来几年为PS5或Xbox Series S/X推出的新游戏,这些游戏也能在上代主机上运行。
So, like, new games for a couple years that are coming out for the PS five or the Xbox Series s and Series x, those games will also be playable on the previous generation hardware.
这在当年是做不到的,但对每代新主机的平稳过渡至关重要,如今不仅硬件方面,软件方面也投入了数十亿美元的工程研发。
Now you couldn't do that back in the day, but this is so important to feathering in each new console generation that literally billions of dollars of engineering across not only hardware, but software titles are invested in this today.
任天堂当时不知道这点,但这最终成为了一个巨大的错误。
Nintendo didn't know that, but this becomes a huge, huge mistake.
是的。
Yep.
好的。
Okay.
这是第一点。
So that's one.
第二点,捆绑游戏。
Point two, the pack in game.
很明显,这个游戏就是《刺猬索尼克》。
Obviously, this is Sonic the Hedgehog.
索尼克就是品牌反向定位有史以来最完美的范例。
Sonic is just the most perfect example ever of counter positioning in brand.
没错。
Yes.
完全同意。
Totally.
就像我们上期节目反复讨论的,任天堂真正的核心竞争力在于那些令人惊叹的、不以叙事为主却充满故事性的幻想世界,让人沉浸其中尽情探索。
So if you think about what Nintendo's real strength is in games that we talked about so much on the last episode, it's these amazing stories and not narrative, but story driven fantasy worlds that you can get lost and explore in.
这就是马里奥的精髓。
You know, that's what Mario is.
塞尔达传说在这方面更胜一筹。
That's what Zelda is even more.
银河战士也是如此。
That's what Metroid is.
但你们知道这类游戏除了惊艳之外还有什么特点吗?
But you know what that style of game is besides being amazing?
节奏也真的很慢。
It's also really slow.
而这与世嘉的街机基因完全背道而驰。
And that is the opposite of Sega's DNA, which is all in the arcades.
追求速度感——没有什么比当年设计《刺猬索尼克》的那帮人嗑的药劲儿更猛了。
That is fast, and nothing is faster than a like, I wanna know what kind of drugs the people were on that came up with Sonic the Hedgehog.
我认为这是日本世嘉内部竞赛的产物。
I think it was an internal competition within Sega of Japan.
是的。
It was.
那是个员工提案。
It was a employee pitch.
对。
Yeah.
对。
Yeah.
是什么让你想出一个满嘴垃圾话的超音速蓝色刺猬?
What would lead you to come up with a trash talking supersonic blue hedgehog?
最初版本还有獠牙和电吉他。
That originally had fangs and an electric guitar.
没错。
That's right.
而且我记得最初还有个穿得很少的人类女友。
Also, like, a human girlfriend that was not wearing much clothing, I think, originally.
是的。
Yes.
衣着暴露的人类女友。
Scantily clad human girlfriend.
对。
Yes.
这就是九十年代最好和最糟的缩影。
And the best and the worst of the nineteen nineties.
但最重要的是,特别是最终版的索尼克,简直酷毙了。
But mostly, especially with the final version of Sonic, just freaking awesome.
没有比这更棒的了。
It doesn't get any better than that.
马里奥适合全家玩,节奏较慢,而且鼓励探索。
So Mario is family friendly and kinda slow, and open to exploration.
而索尼克不仅速度快,还充满攻击性。
And Sonic is not only fast, but aggressive.
世嘉整个品牌某种程度上都采用了索尼克的风格来与任天堂竞争。
The whole brand of Sega kind of adopted the brand of Sonic on its means of competing against Nintendo.
完全同意。
Totally.
还记得我们讨论过吗,我想大概是在1990年的Q调查中,马里奥比米老鼠更被人熟知?
So remember how we talked about in the, I think it was maybe the nineteen ninety Q survey that Mario was more recognizable than Mickey Mouse?
到了1993年的Q调查,马里奥依然比米老鼠更知名,但索尼克在美国消费者中的认知度甚至超过了马里奥,这简直太不可思议了。
Well, by the nineteen ninety three Q survey, Mario is still more recognizable than Mickey Mouse, but Sonic is even more recognizable than Mario by American consumers, which is, like Wow.
真是荒谬。
Just ridiculous.
短短几年后,索尼克就取得了如此巨大的成功。
A couple years later, like, that is how successful Sonic was.
这正是卡林斯基天才之处的一部分。
And this was part of Kalinsky's genius.
它被捆绑在每一台Genesis游戏机上销售。
It was bundled in with every Genesis console.
所以世嘉放弃了从《刺猬索尼克》中能获得的50到60美元增量收入,但这确实推动了Genesis游戏机的销量。
So Sega's giving up on the incremental 50 to $60 pop revenue that they could get from Sonic the Hedgehog, but this really drives Genesis console sales.
好的。
Okay.
第三点,我们需要为美国观众制作美国游戏。
Point three, we need American games for American audiences.
因此,任天堂在这个时期基本上在做两种类型的游戏。
So Nintendo at this point in time is basically making two types of games.
他们在创作永恒的艺术作品,就像我们刚才讨论的马里奥、塞尔达和银河战士系列。
They're making the timeless works of art, like we were just talking about the Marios and the Zeldas and the Metroids.
同时他们也在制作非常古怪的日本风格游戏。
And they're also making super quirky Japanese stuff.
他们不制作的是那些超级古怪的美国玩意儿。
What they are not making is super quirky American stuff.
具体来说,他们不制作美国体育游戏。
And specifically, they're not making American sports games.
现在他们开始制作体育游戏了。
Now they are making sports games.
他们制作了《拳无虚发》。
They make punch out.
他们制作了《刺激自行车》。
They make excite a bike.
他们制作了一堆棒球游戏。
They make a bunch of baseball games.
第三方制作游戏。
Third parties make games.
开发商Techmo以制作《Techmo Bowl》闻名,你知道的,那是一款美式橄榄球游戏。
The, developer Techmo famously makes Techmo Bowl, you know, an American football game.
所以,这些游戏虽然存在,但并没有真正捕捉到这些运动的美国体验。
So, like, they're out there, but these games don't capture the actual American experience of these sports.
它们更像是基于运动的卡通化近似品,但和你玩《Madden》的感觉完全不同。
They're sort of cartoon approximations of something based on a sport, but it's not like you're playing Madden.
确实如此。
Exactly.
我们在与Trip Hawkins的节目中就多次讨论过这一点,但EA的《John Madden Football》之所以具有革命性意义正在于此。
And we talked about this a lot with Trip Hawkins on our episode with him, but that's what was so game changing about EA's John Madden football.
它是真实的11对11橄榄球比赛,配有真实的战术手册。
It was 11 on 11 real football with real playbooks.
如果你曾打过橄榄球,或是这项运动的研究者,或是每周日都看NFL比赛的人,就会知道以今天的标准来看它仍是个简陋的游戏。
Like, if you ever played football or if you were a student of the game or if you watch the NFL every Sunday, you know, it was still a rudimentary video game by today's standards.
但这实际上是在模拟橄榄球比赛,其方式确实是当时日本开发的任何游戏都无法企及的。
But this was actually, like, simulating the game of football in a way that nothing coming out of Japan really ever could.
首版《Madden》于1988年登陆Apple II平台,因为当时的电子艺界还是一家PC游戏发行商。
Now that first version of Madden came out in 1988 for the Apple two, because Electronic Arts at this point in time was a PC game publisher.
他们那时完全没涉足主机业务。
They weren't in the console business at all.
他们不愿接受任天堂及其荒谬的授权条款。
They didn't wanna play ball with Nintendo and the ridiculous licensing terms that Nintendo had.
他们正与世嘉进行这些谈判。
And they're right in the middle of these negotiations with Sega.
因为特里普和EA曾在一个洁净室里逆向工程了Genesis主机,他雄心勃勃地计划自己生产Genesis卡带,不向世嘉支付任何版税,还要把方案提供给第三方,完全绕过世嘉。
Because Tripp and EA had famously gone out and reverse engineered the Genesis in a clean room, and he had these grand plans of he was gonna make his own Genesis cartridges, not pay any royalties to Sega, and then he was gonna take his program to other third parties and, like, completely end around Sega altogether.
他当时不得不进行谈判,但他们已经准备好了。
Which he had to sort of negotiate from that point, but they were ready to do.
他们确实完成了难以置信的工程壮举——在洁净室环境下逆向工程,让游戏能在该系统上运行。
Like, they actually did the unbelievable engineering feat of, in a clean room environment, reverse engineering the way to make games work on this system.
完全正确。
Totally.
所以你能理解为什么母公司世嘉会对电子艺界非常非常愤怒,不想和他们合作。
So you can imagine why Sega, the parent company, would be and were really, really pissed at Electronic Arts and not wanna play ball with them.
但卡林斯基说,不行。
But Kalinsky's like, no.
不行。
No.
我们必须解决这个问题。
We gotta settle this.
我们要接纳他们。
We gotta embrace them.
如果我们能让《麦登橄榄球》登陆Genesis而不是超级任天堂,这对我们将是巨大的机会。
If we can get Madden on the Genesis and not on Super Nintendo, this is gonna be huge for us.
于是他们照做了,世嘉基本上对EA百般迁就。
So they do, and Sega basically completely bends over backwards to EA to accommodate them.
顺便说一句,这才是正确的做法。
Which is the right move, by the way.
完全同意。
Absolutely.
如果这款游戏能作为世嘉独占作品面世而非陷入诉讼,整个市场的规模将呈指数级增长。
The pie massively grows by this game seeing the light of day on Sega exclusively versus if they enter litigation.
就像是,好吧。
It's like, okay.
让我们来分一块小蛋糕吧。
Let's divide up a small pie.
不行。
No.
绝对不行。
Absolutely not.
在这个市场急速扩张、世嘉与任天堂生死对决的时刻,答案就是不要纠结细枝末节。
The answer in this moment where this is rapidly expanding market and a fight to the death between Sega and Nintendo is no side quibbles.
想办法解决。
Figure it out.
继续前进。
Move forward.
发布产品。
Launch the product.
大家都能赚钱。
Everybody makes money.
完全正确。
Totally.
世嘉最初的方案以及其他第三方厂商的方案是每份游戏收取10美元的授权费。
So Sega's original program and their program for other third parties was $10 licensing fee per game unit.
而对于EA,他们每份游戏只收取2美元的授权费,上限为100万份。
For EA, they give them a $2 licensing fee per game unit capped at a million units.
因此EA在任何一款游戏上支付给世嘉的费用都不会超过200万美元。
So EA will never pay Sega more than $2,000,000 on any game.
差别非常非常大。
Very, very different.
但就像你说的,本,这绝对是个巨大的胜利。
But like you said, Ben, this is just an enormous win.
第一年,当Madden的首个Genesis版本问世时,EA和世嘉预计销量会是7.5万份。
So that first year, that first version of Madden that comes out on the Genesis, EA and Sega's prediction is that it'll sell 75,000 copies.
最终销量达到了40万份。
It ends up selling 400,000 copies.
天啊。
Oh, my god.
这对他们来说简直是巨大的成功。
That is just a huge hit for them.
而这正是任天堂主机(以及即将推出的超任)所不具备的。
And this is the exact kind of thing that is not on Nintendo and soon to be the Super Nintendo.
EA最终确实将Madden带到了超任平台,但他们专门为此成立了一个独立工作室来开发。
EA eventually does bring Madden to the Super Nintendo, but they have a separate studio working on it.
他们让A组负责世嘉版本,B组负责超级任天堂版本。
They've got the a team working on the Genesis version, and they've got the b team working on the Super Nintendo version.
所以世嘉版本总是更好。
So the Genesis versions were always better.
我小时候就记得这事。
And I remember this as a kid.
这就是为什么我很幸运同时拥有超级任天堂和世嘉主机。
This is a big reason I was lucky I had the Super Nintendo and the Genesis.
比如,我想要索尼克,但我更想要优质的美式橄榄球游戏。
Like, I wanted Sonic, but even more, I wanted really good Madden games.
哦,哇。
Oh, wow.
我都没意识到。
I didn't realize.
因为现在Xbox和PlayStation版本基本是旗鼓相当的。
Because these days, you know, the Xbox and the PlayStation versions are, like, I think equivalent.
如果有硬核美式橄榄球游戏粉丝在听,他们可能会反驳说根本不是这样。
If there's any hardcore Madden fans out there, they're probably gonna come at me with, no.
某个版本在某个方面要好得多。
It's way better in this, that, or the other way.
FIFA游戏也差不多是这种情况。
FIFA, kind of the same thing.
但我真没想到当年差距这么大。
But I didn't realize there was such a difference then.
是的。
Yeah.
那时候,它们实际上是由不同工作室制作的。
Back in the day, they were actually made by different studios.
超级任天堂的架构存在一些限制,影响了它能达到的帧率。
And there were some things about the Super Nintendo architecture that limited the frame rate that it could run at.
所以基本上,世嘉Genesis上的表现总是更好。
So, like, basically, was always better on the Genesis.
值得指出第一点:放弃向下兼容性后,任天堂不得不在公平的竞争环境中与世嘉较量。
And it's worth saying point one, in eliminating the backwards compatibility, it made Nintendo have to fight Sega on an even playing field.
这并不意味着世嘉就一定会赢。
It didn't mean Sega was gonna win.
这意味着公平竞争消除了他们原有庞大用户基础的优势。
It meant even playing field that negated their advantage of large previous install base.
第二点和第三点在于游戏本身。
Point two and three are the games.
你看第二点,索尼克比马里奥更快、更亮眼、更刺激。
You know, you've got with point two, Sonic being faster, brighter, more exciting than Mario.
当你看到它们同台竞技时——世嘉刻意营造这种对比——索尼克看起来就像是款更吸引人的游戏,让你想买,尽管过去几年你一直喜欢马里奥。
When you see them head to head, which Sega was making sure that you saw them head to head, Sonic seems like a much more interesting game that you kinda wanna buy regardless of the fact that you have loved Mario the last few years.
表面上,它确实更具吸引力。
On the surface, it is much more compelling.
没错。
Yes.
当然,有了《麦登橄榄球》,他们现在优势更大了。
And, of course, with Madden, now they have even more advantage.
所以天平开始向世嘉这边倾斜了。
So the scales are really starting to tip towards Sega here.
所以第四点,直接给任天堂一记重拳。
So point four, punching Nintendo in the mouth.
格林斯基找来一个叫史蒂夫·瑞斯的人,他曾在上世纪八十年代策划了锐步凭借充气鞋对抗耐克的复兴。
Glinski goes out and brings on a guy named Steve Race, who had masterminded Reebok's resurgence against Nike in the eighties with the pump sneakers.
还记得吗?
Remember that?
哦,当然。
Oh, yeah.
那就是史蒂夫·瑞斯的杰作。
That was Steve Race's brainchild.
而卡林斯基告诉他只管在营销上放手一搏。
And Kalinsky tells him to just go wild on the marketing.
史蒂夫后来离开世嘉,成为索尼电脑娱乐美国分部的首任总裁,主导了PlayStation的发布。
Steve would go on to leave Sega and become the first president of Sony Computer Entertainment America for the launch of the PlayStation.
但在此之前,他几乎凭一己之力拽起了世嘉乃至整个游戏产业。
But before that, he would pretty much single handedly yank Sega and really the whole video game industry.
这确实为PlayStation从玩具世界跨入全媒体技术领域——MTV世代奠定了基础。
I mean, this really sets the stage for the PlayStation out of the toy world and into full on media technology, the MTV generation.
这就是世嘉和他的成就。
This is Sega and his work.
于是他们出去聘请了Goodby Silverstein广告公司,策划了'欢迎来到新境界'的营销活动,这个活动非常出色,所有广告片都以世嘉的尖叫声作为标志性结尾。
So they go out, they hire the Goodby Silverstein ad agency, and they come up with the welcome to the next level campaign, which was just so great and had the trademark way that all of the ad spots ended with the Sega scream.
没错。
Yep.
这里还运用了一些相当巧妙的心理战术,围绕着你已经从任天堂毕业这个概念。
There's also some pretty amazing jujitsu here around the idea that you've graduated from Nintendo.
这很酷,你以前玩那个就像是小孩子的玩意儿。
That's cool that you used to do that and, like, that was for babies.
现在你是个真正的大人了,是时候升级到真正的成人游戏系统了。
And now you're a real grown up, and it's time to graduate to a real grown up system.
哦,这个策略在各方面都奏效了。
Oh, it worked on every level.
简直太棒了。
It was so great.
他们在1992年MTV音乐录影带大奖颁奖礼上首次推出这个营销活动。
So they premiere the campaign during the nineteen ninety two MTV Video Music Awards.
哦,这里简直是天作之合。
Oh, marriage of everything here.
就是那个多年后坎耶从泰勒·斯威夫特手中抢走话筒的同一届VMA颁奖礼。
Literally, like, you know, the same VMAs where many years later, Kanye would take the mic from T Swift.
这里可不是玩具货架。
This is, like, not the toy aisle here.
这是流行文化登峰造极的体现。
This is pop culture at its pinnacle.
他们还发明了'冲击处理'这个术语。
They also invent the term blast processing.
如果大家还记得,世嘉创世纪主机拥有'冲击处理'技术,正是这让索尼克如此之快。
If folks remember this, the Genesis has blast processing, and that's what makes Sonic fast.
这完全是个编造出来的营销术语。
It's a completely made up marketing term.
在创世纪主机的开发手册里确实提到过某个东西,或许可以勉强翻译为'冲击处理'。
There was something in the development manual, like, somewhere for the Genesis about something that maybe could be translated as blast processing.
但实际上,这功能根本没什么实际作用。
But, like, it didn't actually do anything.
苹果最近在这方面很热衷。
Apple's been hot on this recently.
比如A12仿生芯片、神经网络引擎,这些都是用营销术语包装高度技术性的东西,实际上并未准确描述其技术原理。
What are the a 12 bionic, the neural engine, and marketing terms for something highly technical such that it doesn't actually describe the technical thing that it's doing.
苹果另一个例子是视网膜显示屏。
Or another Apple example is the Retina display.
自从他们开始营销'视网膜显示屏'这个概念后,就算竞争对手的产品拥有同样高的像素密度也没用。
Once they start marketing the Retina display, it doesn't matter if their competitors have something that's just as many pixels per inch.
因为那不是'视网膜显示屏',尽管这个说法本身毫无意义。
Like, it's not a retina display, but that's completely meaningless.
这一切都要追溯到世嘉创世纪主机。
It all goes back to the Genesis.
主机外壳上用巨大字体写着'16位'——在日本是金色字母,在美国是银色字母。
It's got huge font on the actual console in, I think it's gold letters in Japan and silver letters in America that say 16 bits on the console itself.
太棒了。
It's amazing.
我爱死它了。
I love it.
我是说,那正是他们的竞争优势。
I mean, that is their competitive edge.
完全同意。
Totally.
我从整个系列中获得的一大收获是,苹果在营销中从电子游戏行业借鉴了多少东西。
One of my big takeaways from this whole series is just how much Apple took from the video game industry in their marketing.
史蒂夫、汤姆和世嘉团队的创新举措真正推动行业进入了现代时代。
Steve and Tom and the team at Sega also do super innovative stuff that really just brings the industry forward into the modern era.
在世嘉时代之前,电子游戏其实并没有确切的发布日期。
Before this era of Sega, there weren't actually release dates for video games.
当新的任天堂游戏推出时,它们只是突然出现在零售商那里。
When new Nintendo games would come out, they just start showing up at retailers.
甚至不是同一天,就像国内某些地区会比其它地区先拿到游戏。
And not even on the same day, just like some regions of the country would get them before others.
完全没有组织性。
There was no organization.
汤姆、史蒂夫和世嘉美国的营销部门说,不行。
Tom and Steve and the marketing department at Sake of America, they're like, nope.
这是电影级别的。
This is the movies.
我们正在为游戏举办全球同步发售日,场面会像电影首映式一样盛大。
We are doing worldwide release days for our games, and they're gonna be just like movie premieres.
我们会邀请名人出席。
We're gonna have celebrities.
我们会举办大型营销活动。
We're gonna have big marketing events.
这个日期会被印在所有宣传物料上。
The date is gonna be plastered all over everything.
完全同意。
Totally.
我是说,有数百万人知道2023年5月12日是《塞尔达传说:王国之泪》的发售日。
I mean, there's millions of people that know 05/12/2023 is going to be Zelda Tears of the Kingdom.
这已经成为电子游戏营销的标准模式了。
This has become the way that you market video games.
而这一切都始于美国世嘉。
And that all started with Sega of America.
确切地说,是从《索尼克2》开始的,他们当时搞了个'索尼克星期二'活动。
Specifically, it started with Sonic two, where they had Sonic Tuesday.
哦。
Oh.
发售日啊。
The launch day.
虽然听起来很老套,但这在当时是极具创新性的。
Oh, so hokey, but this is hugely innovative.
美国世嘉在营销上还有一招,本,你肯定会喜欢,他们真的搞了个百事挑战。
The other thing that Sega of America does in their marketing, Ben, you will love this, is they literally do the Pepsi challenge.
他们用卡车,没错。
So they take trucks Yes.
就是那种18轮大卡车,在车厢里装上超级任天堂和世嘉Genesis游戏机,然后开到全美各地的购物中心。
Like 18 wheelers, and they outfit them with Super Nintendos and Sega Genesis's in the back, and they drive them around to malls across America.
邀请孩子们来玩《索尼克》对决《超级马里奥世界》,玩五分钟后问他们更喜欢哪个游戏。
And they invite kids in to play head to head Sonic versus Super Mario World, and then they ask them which game they prefer after, like, five minutes of playing.
索尼克的前五分钟确实很棒。
So the first five minutes of Sonic are really good.
但接下来几个小时就不怎么样了。
The next couple hours, not as good.
没错。
Right.
这招实在高明。
And this is an amazing trick.
所有电视厂商都玩同样的把戏。
It's the same thing that all the TV manufacturers do.
他们把店里的电视伽马值、对比度和亮度都调得超高,你就被那台色彩最夸张的圣诞灯效果电视迷住了。
They gamma up and contrast up and brightness up all the TVs when they're in the store, and you get mesmerized by the one that's got the most insane Christmas light colors on it.
等买回家才发现,看《黑暗骑士崛起》这类电影时效果糟糕透了。
And then you take it home, and you're like, ugh, this is kind of terrible for watching, you know, the dark knight rises or whatever.
事实证明,当并列比较时,吸引你的东西往往不是长期使用的最佳选择。
And it turns out that when you're comparing things side by side, there are things that appeal to you that are actually not the best long term option.
完全正确。
Totally.
所以他们记录了所有这些数据。
So they keep track of all of this.
你瞧,美国十个孩子里有七个更喜欢索尼克而不是马里奥。
And lo and behold, seven out of 10 kids in America prefer Sonic to Mario.
当然,世嘉公司把这个消息登在了《华尔街日报》和所有投资者媒体上,到处都是。
And, of course, Sega trumpets that in, like, the Wall Street Journal and all of the investor press and, like, everything.
这太神奇了。
It's amazing.
与此同时,这既是世嘉的天才之处——他们真的来参赛了,也是因为任天堂一直在失误。
And so at the same time, it's Sega's genius and the fact that they, like, showed up to play, but also Nintendo keeps dropping the ball.
我是说,他们为超级任天堂发行的游戏又非常保守,就像在说'我们要努力保持领先优势'。
I mean, the games that they're shipping for the Super Nintendo are, like, again, very conservative, very, like, we're gonna try to maintain our lead.
你玩它的马里奥游戏。
You play the Mario game for it.
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