《After Hours》精选集——TikTok与体育

大家好，深夜节目的听众们。我是Felix。虽然《深夜》节目仍在休整期，但我们想从档案中挑选一集我们认为仍具时效性的内容回放给大家。请告诉我们您的想法。一如既往，感谢您的收听。

Hello, after hours listeners. Felix here. After hours is still on a break, but we wanted to bring back an episode from the archives we think you'll still find relevant. Let us know what you think. And as always, thank you for listening.

好的，Felix。你一直在关注关于TikTok的种种顾虑，但现在印度和美国政府工作人员手机已开始全面禁用TikTok。你对TikTok当前处境有何看法？为何你认为这是开启2023年特别值得关注的故事？

Okay, Felix. You've been following this hesitancy around TikTok, but now actually some outright bans of TikTok in India and for people who use US government phones. What are your thoughts on what's happening with TikTok, and why has this struck you as an especially interesting story to start 2023?

说实话，我主要担心的是我自己，因为我是TikTok的狂热用户。但当然，这确实引发了各种有趣的问题。首先是跨国数据共享问题——还记得欧盟隐私法规刚出台时这曾是个大议题吗？企业不得不采取各种措施确保合规。

Well, of course, if I'm totally honest, I will say I'm mostly worried about myself because I'm such an enthusiastic user of TikTok. But then, of course, it poses really all kinds of interesting issues. The first one has to do with sharing data across national borders. You might remember this was such a big issue when EU privacy legislation first came along. Companies had to adopt in all kinds of ways to make sure that they were in compliance.

最近又出现了安全层面的担忧。对中国可能触及的任何数据，部分立法者现在都视为隐患。就在一周前，FCC首席共和党代表Brendan Carr说印度提供了范本——绝不允许TikTok这类应用运营。其核心论点是：中国政府终将能获取美国数据，观察美国用户在该应用上的行为。

And then more lately, there's sort of this security twist. Any data that China can touch now seem very problematic to a group of lawmakers. Just a week ago, Brendan Carr, the leading Republican representative on the FCC, he said that India created the blueprint. You just cannot allow apps like TikTok to operate. And the argument is basically that one way or another, the Chinese government will be able to get access to US data, will be able to observe what US users do on the app.

至少在部分群体看来，这既不负责任又危险，因此需要封禁TikTok。Sarah，我很好奇你的看法——这禁令会奏效吗？

And that is, at least in some circles, deemed irresponsible, deemed dangerous. And as a result, we need a TikTok ban. And I'm curious. What do you make of it, Sarah? Is it gonna work?

这是真实的吗？会实施吗？

Is it real? Will it happen?

我认为这是大趋势中非常有趣的一环。TikTok是这类应用的典型代表：先受用户热捧，随后监管者才意识到安全隐患。几年前俄罗斯的FaceApp就是先例——上传照片就能预览老年模样。类似案例还有不少。

I think it's very interesting as part of a larger trend. TikTok is the most successful example of an app that really takes off with users that then later regulators and other people come along and say, oh, wait a minute. There's some security concerns there. So one example from a few years ago was an app called FaceApp, which turned out to be a Russian app where you would upload photos and they would age them so you could get an early look of what you looked like as an old person. There have been other apps like this too.

就在上个月，还有一款名为Lensa AI的应用能改变用户的面部特征。当人们顶着宇航员或森林精灵面孔的照片在网络上疯传后，大家突然意识到：在这个刷脸解锁手机的时代，或许不该轻易将面部数据存储在云端——你永远无法确定这些数据是否被彻底删除。就TikTok而言，问题还多了一层中国政府因素，以及近年来中美政府关系的演变。

More recently last month, there was just Lensa AI, which was another app that altered your facial appearance. And after these images of people with the face of an astronaut or the face of a woodland fairy had sort of gone viral, people said, wait a minute. Mhmm. In an era where your face is often a password to get into your phone, maybe you don't wanna have this data just be shared in the cloud, and you can't really ever be sure that it's fully deleted. I think in the case of TikTok, there is this extra layer of the Chinese government and how relationship with the Chinese government has evolved over the last few years.

没错。印度在这方面可谓先行者，目前已有300多款应用被其封禁。这些禁令正是在中印边境军事冲突后立即实施的。

Yeah. I think that sounds exactly right. And India is leading the way in that respect also. There are a little more than 300 apps now that are banned in India. It happened right after the military clashes between Chinese and Indian forces.

所有这些都是在地缘政治背景下发生的。最耐人寻味的是，每当人们讨论安全担忧时，说辞总是极其模糊——什么'数据可能泄露'啦，'中国掌握美国用户信息'啦。我们有必要深入剖析这个问题。

All of this takes place in a geopolitical context. What strikes me as particularly interesting is when people talk about the security concerns, it's always incredibly vague. It's like, oh, somehow we have data, and somehow the Chinese know something about US users. Mhmm. It's worth drilling down a little bit.

使用TikTok这类应用时，你究竟泄露了什么？最明显的是观看记录、停留时长和关注列表。不过对TikTok来说，关注功能反而不是重点，因为其核心模式是靠算法推测用户喜好，进而推送海量相关内容。就我分析的数据而言，唯一真正值得警惕的可能是地理位置信息。

What is it actually that you give away when you use apps like TikTok? So the most obvious is what you watch, how long you watch, who you follow. In TikTok's case, maybe not such a big deal because the main mode of using the app is not that you actually follow people, but that the app's algorithms figures out what you really like. And then as a result, we serve you lots and lots of content that is close to what you like. And as I look through the data, the only one where I can imagine that there is some real concern is probably geolocation.

试想有人出现在堕胎诊所附近，或大使馆周围。实时掌握人员位置带来的隐患，远比我们原先设想的要严重得多。

Mhmm. So imagine a situation where someone's close to an abortion clinic, where someone is close to an embassy. Actually knowing in real time where people are is more of a problem than many of us had spent a lot of time thinking about.

我认为这反映了一种日益增长的普遍焦虑——并非针对数据的具体用途，而是源于对应用真实性的根本怀疑。我们永远无法确知这些程序是否暗藏间谍软件、键盘记录功能，或偷偷调用麦克风摄像头。老话说'信任但需验证'，可难题就在于：在互联网发展的这个新阶段，我们根本无从验证。

I think what you're also seeing is just a sort of increasing paranoia that is not necessarily tied to any specific use of data or articulated use of data, but that's coming from a sense that we can't always trust that these apps are just what they say that they are. Mhmm. Can we definitely know that there's not some kind of spyware or keystroke tracking or microphone manipulating or camera manipulating aspect of these different apps? We always say trust but verify, and I feel like the challenge here is with verifying how these things work. We're sort of entering, I think, a different phase of the Internet.

以前我觉得用胶带遮电脑摄像头的人很可笑。直到看见扎克伯格也这么干时，才恍然大悟——连他都要防，我岂不是个傻子？

Mhmm. I used to think it was crazy that people put tape over the cameras of their computer. And then I saw a photo of Mark Zuckerberg with tape over the camera of his computer, and I was like, apparently, I'm a chump if he's doing

从公司角度来看，有两个方面让我觉得很有趣。你不想泄露核心机密。TikTok浏览视频的方式以及他们利用用户信息的方式，这正是让这款应用如此有趣、激发各种创意和模因的部分原因。对我有帮助的是始终考虑国家安全层面的担忧。

it. There are two interesting aspects to me from a company perspective. You don't want to give away the secret sauce. The way TikTok surfs the videos and the way they use user information, That is part of what has made the app so enjoyable and what has invited all the creativity and the memes. What helps me is to always think about say national security concerns.

某个特定应用掌握的数据有多独特？假设中国在某个时间点真的决定研究美国用户的地理位置信息，可能是为了对人们施加某种影响。我认为这往往是人们讲述关于数据可能用途时最可怕的故事。但当你仔细思考两分钟，就会发现地理信息本身存在巨大的交易市场。

Is the data that a particular app has. How unique is it? So say China at some point in time really decided that using geolocation of US users is something that they wanted to look into, maybe to have some sort of influence over people. That I think is often the scariest story that people will tell about the likely use of the data. And then when you think about it for two minutes, there is a huge marketplace for geoinformation.

我们知道美国政府会从私人用户处购买地理位置数据。嗯。不久前，有两个名为Muslim Pro和Muslim Mingle的应用将数据卖给了名为XMode的数据中介。XMode又转卖给国防承包商，最终这些数据流向政府和军方。所以我们所担忧的、不愿让本国或其他政府知晓的信息，其实从一开始就存在着庞大的交易市场。

We know that the US government buys geolocation data from private users. Mhmm. A little while back, there were two apps, Muslim Pro and Muslim Mingle, that sold app to a data broker called XMode. XMode sold it to defense contractors, and from these defense contractors, he then went to the government and the military. So the very fear that we have that we don't want our government and other governments to know, there is a huge marketplace for this kind of information in the first place.

因此我认为当前关于封禁TikTok的讨论只是政治作秀之一。这与保障我们的安全几乎毫无关系，也并非真正关心任何人的福祉。政客们只是想被看作是对华强硬的立场代表，或是社交媒体监管的强硬派。

And so I feel the current conversation about the ban of TikTok is one of these performative acts in politics. It has nothing to do or almost nothing to do with, a, keeping us safe. It has almost nothing to do with really being concerned for anyone's welfare. It's just you want to be known as the politician who stood up to China. You want to be known as the politician who's really tough on social media.

这制造了一种肤浅的讨论氛围，当你审视时会发现这些言论毫无实质意义。但当然，它首要服务于政治目的。

It creates a kind of superficial conversation that you look at it and none of this really makes any sense. But, of course, it serves political purposes first and foremost.

是的。我完全同意政治总是带有表演成分。政客永远在迎合观众。嗯。

Yeah. I totally agree with politics. There's always an element of performance. You're always playing to the crowd. Mhmm.

嗯。

Mhmm.

要将地缘政治背景与这场辩论完全割裂开来是不可能的，因为我们确实感觉身处一个截然不同的时代。记得十年前、十五年前，人们还在热议金砖国家，认为这些新兴市场蕴藏着巨大商机

It's impossible to really separate the geopolitical context from this debate because we do feel like we're in a very different time. You know, I was remembering ten, fifteen years ago, there was all this hype about the bricks and how these emerging markets were, like, such a great opportunity

对于企业而言

for firms

来自富裕国家的企业可以向这些市场销售产品和服务。而如今俄罗斯和中国与美国的关系已大不相同。嗯。整体上我们正处于一个更加多疑的时代。虽然存在作秀成分，但我也意识到这其中可能涉及真正的利害关系。

from wealthy countries to sell products and services to. And now Russia and China have a very different relationship with The US. Mhmm. We're in a more paranoid time generally. There is grandstanding, but I'm also aware that there might also be real stakes here too.

在我看来，你所暗示的这种转变非常耐人寻味——金砖国家就是个绝佳例子。以前如果你在华盛顿严厉批评中国，你会孤立无援。现在你去华盛顿说任何中美关系的积极言论，反而会形单影只。许多人会以极度怀疑的眼光看你。而实际上两国关系本质并未发生太大变化。

To me, what's so interesting about this change that you allude to Bricks is a great example. If you went to Washington and you were really critical of China, you'd be all by yourself. Now you go to Washington, you say anything positive about the China US relationship, and you are all by yourself. And many people will look at you with great skepticism. And when you think about the relationship, not that much has changed.

事实上很多方面随着时间推移已大幅改善。想想在中国维护知识产权的可能性——天啊，我们在短时间内取得了巨大进步。中国现在对知识产权的认可虽不完美——

And many things have actually gotten much better over time. Think about the likelihood of enforcing IP rights in China. Oh my god. We have made so much progress in a relatively short period of time. China has recognized IP rights now not in a perfect way.

我想没人会否认这点——但其进步速度远超历史上许多国家，包括美国，后者花费漫长时间才承认外国作者的版权等权益。最令我担忧的是，这有时感觉像是伊拉克战争前夜，我们被灌输的偏执情绪更多是服务于双方国内政治目的。

I think no one would say that. But it's made much more progress in a much shorter time period than many countries have historically, including The US where it took forever to recognize, say, for instance, copyright of foreign authors. What worries me the most is it sometimes feels a little bit like an Iraq moment where we're talked into a paranoia that serves mostly domestic political purposes on both sides.

各种因素纠缠不清，想到这不是需要我来理清的问题，反倒让我松了口气。

It's all tangled up together, and I think it's something that I'm relieved is not my job to figure out.

我认为比我们目前的做法更好的方式是制定明确的规则，规定企业能做什么和不能做什么。例如，如果规定地理位置数据根本不应向政府开放。我们在美国已有相关法规，这些规则同样适用于任何外国政府。这将意味着彻底关闭地理位置信息的交易市场，销售此类信息将不再合法。

I think what I would find much better than the way we're doing it right now is that we had clear rules of what companies can and cannot do. So for instance, if you said geolocation data is just not something that should be available to government. And we have rules in The US, and those same rules reapply to any foreign government. And that would then imply that you shut down the market for geolocation information. It is no longer legal to sell geolocation information.

因为在当今，当各国政府都能在公开市场上轻易购买到所有想要的地理位置信息时，仅仅声称要封锁某条获取途径显得毫无说服力。所以必须真正坦诚公开地明确规则边界——什么是允许的，什么是禁止的。然后让市场在全体企业必须遵守的准则框架内自主运作。一旦针对特定国家某些恰好当前不受待见的企业采取定向限制，整个局面就会变得非常浑浊。这让我更难相信其动机真是出于对公众福祉的考量。

Because today, when every government can easily buy all the geolocation information you want on the open market, It's just not very credible to say we're shutting down that one way you might be able to get it. So be really sincere and be really open in what the rules are, what you can and what you cannot do. And then let the market play out within a set of guidelines that all companies have to follow. The moment it's directed at particular companies from particular countries that we happen not to be so enamored with at this moment in time, things just get very murky. And I have a little more difficult to believe that it's really motivated by welfare considerations for everyone.

这个观点很公允。我觉得有必要指出，中国也封禁了多家美国科技企业

That's a fair point. And I feel sort of obligated to also point out China has blocked a number of US technology companies

确实。

Yes.

还建立了所谓的中国防火墙，限制境内用户可访问的内容。

And has the sort of great firewall of China limiting what you can have access to when you're in the country.

没错。

Yeah.

而我们美国同样视这种做法为恶劣行径。

And we in The US view that as also a terrible thing.

没错，正是如此。这个观点太棒了，但我觉得这恰恰意味着我们不应该那么做。好吧，我们会找到更好的方式来监管这些公司。

Yeah. Exactly. That's a fabulous point, and I think it should mean that's exactly not something that we're going to do. K. We'll figure out a better way to regulate these companies.

或许我们可以从美国科技行业最近的一些裁员中看到转机。那些真正聪明的人或许能帮助政府理解这些技术到底是如何运作的。因为有时候你会看到国会议员们站起来对某个新应用或手机功能大加指责，而我总觉得他们可能根本不了解实际情况。

Maybe we'll see with some of the tech layoffs that have been happening in The US tech sector. Maybe some of those really smart people can go help the government understand how all this technology really works. Because sometimes you have these congresspeople standing up and railing about the new app or the this or that phone thing, and I'm thinking you probably don't really know much about

多在TikTok上花点时间吧。我觉得这对政策制定者和全人类都是个好建议。

Spend a little time on TikTok. I think that might be good advice for policymakers and for the rest of humanity.

好吧，我现在比刚开始时稍微不那么害怕了。很好，这就是——

Well, I am a little bit less afraid than when we started. Good. That is

短短十五分钟就取得了巨大进展。

huge progress in just fifteen minutes.

那么莱恩，大学体育和业余运动员赚钱是怎么回事？

So, Lane, college sports and making money as an amateur, what's going on?

这是个勇敢的新世界。从2021年起，运动员可以签代言合同了。最开始是看到进攻线锋与烧烤店签协议，换得价值200美元的肉类产品之类的小规模交易。

It's a brave new world out there. As of 2021, athletes can sign endorsement deals. That started off with the slow trickle of seeing offensive linemen strike deals with barbecue restaurants where they would get, like, $200 worth of meat.

没错。

Right.

以及诸如此类的愚蠢交易。随着这一领域的成熟，我们看到球员与耐克或更大品牌签约。但由此产生的最重要趋势是资金从赞助者向大学的转移。是的，赞助者不仅仅是向某个部门捐款的任何人。

And silly deals like that. And as the space has matured, we've seen the player signing with Nike or a bigger brand. But the biggest trend to come out of it is the redirection of money from boosters to colleges. Right. Boosters aren't just anyone that's giving money to an department.

嗯。自2021年7月1日起，NCAA修改规则允许运动员通过姓名、形象和肖像权获利，我们简称其为NIL。

Mhmm. As of 07/01/2021, the NCAA changed its rules to allow athletes to make money off of their name, image, and likeness, and we'll just call that NIL.

再补充几个体育缩写词，这些实在太少了，我们绝对有必要多增加几个。好吧，NIL。是的。

To add to the sports abbreviations, which are so rare that we absolutely have to add a few more. Of them. Alright. NIL. Yes.

NIL。

NIL.

这通常意味着，原本可能向体育部门捐赠1万美元的人，现在可能直接塞进四分卫的口袋，因为他们想要优秀的招募对象。逻辑在于：流入资金越多，招募的球员越优秀；球员越优秀，球队表现就越好。看看阿拉巴马大学和克莱姆森这样的学校，其橄榄球队在全国舞台上的成功带动了学校捐款增加、外州申请量上升以及入学率增长。

That often means that someone who might have a $10,000 donation to the school that they might previously have given to the athletic department, which the athletic department can then designate at their will, might be giving it directly and lining the pocket of a quarterback because they want a good recruit. And the thinking goes, the more money you have coming in, the better recruits you're gonna get. The better recruits you get, the better you are at the sport. Mhmm. You look at a school like Alabama and Clemson, the way that their football team's having success on the national stage and that increased donations to the school, it increased out of state applications, it increased enrollment.

是啊。

Yeah.

所以我很好奇这一点。我们会看到橄榄球队变得更强吗？其他运动项目会被边缘化吗？

So that's one thing I'm curious about. Are we going to see football teams better? Are we going to see other sports marginalized?

没错。我认为这是个极其迷人的领域。正如你所阐述的，这是权力平衡从大学和运动员身上转移的过程。历史上运动员在这场游戏中一无所获，而机构却从中赚得盆满钵满。坦白说，很难不为这种改变感到欣慰。

Yeah. I think this is completely a fascinating lane. And as you laid out, it's a shift in the balance of power away from universities and tour athletes. Athletes historically were getting nothing out of this game, which was minting money for the institutions. I confess it's hard not to feel good about all that.

嗯。但你强调的第二个动态，我认为是权力向捐赠者转移。捐赠者现在能以过去无法实现的方式定向资助。嗯。游泳队曾分享部分橄榄球收益，左后卫也曾获得本该属于四分卫的部分福利。

Mhmm. But the second dynamic that you're highlighting, I think, is the shift of power towards donors. Donors now can target things in ways they couldn't target things before. Mhmm. The swimming team was getting some of the football revenue, and the left guard was getting some benefits that the quarterback would otherwise get.

所有这些共享机制都面临压力。奖励流向最显眼、最受追捧的超级明星。我不知道你怎么看，菲利克斯？

And all of that sharing is under pressure. The rewards go to the most visible, the most celebrated, the superstars. I don't know, Felix. What do you make of it?

我完全同意。公平性的论点非常有说服力。坦率地说，这意味着某些运动项目会彻底消失或大幅萎缩。在我看来这并不可怕，我们只是看到了市场力量在发挥作用。

So I completely agree. The fairness argument is just super strong. And frankly, that implies that some sports completely disappear or get much smaller. In my view, that's not really terrible. We just see the market forces operating.

这和经济的其他领域一样。如果没有真正的需求，没有足够的热情，何必勉强维持？

It's just like the rest of the economy. If there isn't really much demand, if there isn't really much enthusiasm, why keep it up?

说得太对了。但边缘运动项目面临维持压力的原因在于奥运会，因为这对NBC来说是摇钱树。而且美国等国家以奖牌榜领先为荣，如果没有优秀击剑选手就做不到这点。由于美国业余体育体系的独特性——世界上几乎所有其他国家都有国家资助的运动员培养计划。嗯。

That's spot on. But the reason why there's pressure on keeping this fringe sports is the Olympics, because those are such a cash cow for NBC. But also The US and other countries take some pride in topping the medal table, and you're not gonna do that unless you have some pretty good fencers. And because The US is unique in the way its amateur sports system is set up, pretty much every other country in the world has a state funded development program for athletes. Mhmm.

在美国，这种情况不存在。那是大学体育。

In The US, that doesn't exist. That's college sports.

老实说，我从未真正思考过这个问题，但你说得有道理。美国的独特之处在于，我们基本上把大学体育当作培养各类运动员的摇篮。是的。一方面，我认为如果脱离大学体育体系，单纯为了培养奥运选手而设立击剑或游泳项目，反而显得扭曲。

Honestly, I'd never really thought about that, but it makes sense, which is The US is unique in that we basically use college athletics to become a breeding ground for everything. Yeah. In one hand, I guess, I think that's better if it were outside of the college athletic system, that we are including fencing or swimming for the purposes of building Olympic strength seems like a contortion.

想象一下，如果大学体育不再为世界培养运动员，奥运会将如何改变，这很有趣。嗯。我预测边缘项目的表现可能会下滑，或许我们再也看不到过去那种辉煌成绩。但这真的很重要吗？我热爱奥运会的原因，正是可以观看那些我几乎不了解的项目。

It's interesting to think about how the Olympics might change in a world where college sport doesn't train athletes for the rest of the world. Mhmm. So I would predict sports at the margin, Maybe we don't quite see the performance that we would have seen in the olden days. And does that really matter so much? What I love about the Olympics is I watch all these sports that I barely know what it's all about.

坦白说，我的观赛体验会因为选手们是巅峰表现还是85%的实力而受影响吗？我觉得不会。

And frankly, is my enjoyment going to be impacted by stellar performances or performances that are 85% of what's possible? I don't really think so.

是啊。嗯。莱恩，我想回到你最初提出的一个问题。当运动员们被可能涌入的巨额金钱分心时，有趣的结果或许是：那些被认为稳赢的大学项目——橄榄球和篮球——会变得更强，还是反而更糟？

Yeah. Mhmm. Wanna just return to one thing you asked at the beginning, Lane. You have athletes who are conceivably gonna get distracted by the amount of dollars that they're gonna be coming in. So the interesting outcome might also be that these supposedly winning sports, football, basketball at the collegiate level, will they get better, or might they actually get worse?

有个正在上演的典型案例值得研究——德州农工大学。吉姆博·费舍尔是大学橄榄球界收入最高的教练之一，而德州农工的校友群体不仅资金雄厚，还特别热衷为橄榄球挥金如土。他们曾招到全美顶尖的新生班，这是二十年来首次由非阿拉巴马或乔治亚的学校夺得招生榜首。但讽刺的是，德州农工今年战绩惨淡。

There's an interesting case study that I think is still unfolding, and that's Texas A and M. Jimbo Fisher is one of the highest paid coaches in college football, and Texas A and M as an alumni base is also one of the most well endowed in terms of money and also willingness to throw money at football. Put it that way. And they had a recruiting class that was the top in the nation, which is the first time that the top school in a recruiting class has not been Alabama or Georgia in something like two decades. And what was interesting is Texas A and M, famously this year, was quite bad at football.

他们甚至没资格参加季后赛。是的，这按农工标准简直是奇耻大辱。更糟的是，他们的新生转学率还是全美最高。我不得不...

They did not even make a bowl game. Yeah. That's just an abomination by Aggie standards. And additionally, they also had the largest percentage of their class transfer out of anyone in the country. And I would have to

觉得挺有意思的。

think interesting.

部分原因可能在于，你去某所学校是因为被NIL协议吸引，结果到了那里却发现不喜欢。或者意识到这地方不适合自己。当然，孩子们选择学校的理由千奇百怪，金钱是其中之一。但17岁时很难拒绝百万美元的诱惑，我觉得这确实是——

That some of that has to do with maybe the reason why you went to a school is because of an NIL deal that was lured your way, and you get there and you don't like it. Or maybe you realize this isn't the right place for me. And obviously, kids pick schools for a zillion different reasons, money being one of them. But it's hard to turn down a million dollars when you're 17, and I gotta think that that's

正在发生的现象。确实如此。是的。这真是个

something that's happening here. That's true. Yes. This was a really

绝佳的话题，尤其考虑到菲利克斯目前正在协商他自己的NIL协议，据我所知。

great topic, particularly because Felix is in the middle of negotiating his own NIL deal right now, as I understand.

没错。或许值得和校长谈谈这事。

Yes. Maybe that's worth a conversation with the president.

这就对了。

There you go.

那么米希尔，你刚想讨论运动队的估值问题。

So Mihir, you wanted to talk about the valuation of sports teams.

显然，金融学教授必须谈谈估值问题。好的，首先让我问问你们俩。假设资源无限，你们会买下哪支球队？

Obviously, finance professor has gotta talk about valuation. Yeah. So So let me just first ask you both. Okay. Infinite resources, what team do you buy?

哦，天哪。我认为可以选择一支肯定会升值的球队。我会选女子运动项目。不错的选择。

Oh, gosh. Oh. I think you could look at a team that you know is going to appreciate in value. I would do a women's sport. Nice.

要么选女足因为它的全球吸引力，要么选美国的女子篮球。或者如果你想买一支已经享誉全球、品牌影响力巨大的球队，我可能会选纽约洋基队。洋基队比大都会队更合我心意。

Either women's soccer because of the global appeal or women's basketball in The US. Yeah. Or if you're trying to buy a team that's already has incredible brand reach and recognition around the globe, I might do the Yankees. Nice. I'd like the Yankees more than the Mets.

莱恩，我本来觉得你是个不错的搭档，但现在我有点怀疑了。不过，费利克斯，你来说说看？你会买哪支球队？

I thought I liked you, Lane, as a cohost, but I'm questioning that right now. But, anyway, go ahead, Felix. Who would you buy? Well,

当然，由于我在商学院任教，我的决定完全由怀旧情绪驱动。我会买下费城老鹰队，因为——天啊——搬到费城后第一次现场观看美式橄榄球的回忆太美好了。这就像你的大学经历，你永远不会忘记与某个机构或运动队的初次相遇。

of course, since I teach at a business school, my decisions are completely determined by nostalgia. I would buy the Philadelphia Eagles because Oh my god. Such fun memories of moving to Philadelphia, seeing American football for the first time live. And I think somehow, it's maybe like your undergrad experience. You will never forget that first life encounter that you have with an institution or with a sports team.

所以，老鹰队加油。

So go Eagles.

哇，我本来也挺喜欢你的，但现在看来不是了。要不你来选？我本来想走瑞安·雷诺兹的路线，买支像雷克瑟姆这样的英超三级球队。

Wow. I thought I liked you too, but apparently not. How about you be here? I was gonna go the Ryan Reynolds route. Buy some third class Premier League team like the Wrexham Yeah.

组建团队并打造它。是的。但我之所以问这些，是因为体育球队的估值简直令人难以置信。大约二十年前，人们常开玩笑说，成为百万富翁最简单的方法是什么？就是你从一个千万富翁开始，然后买下一支体育球队，最后赔光所有钱。

Team and build it. Yeah. But the reason I ask all this is because the valuation of sports teams has just been amazing. So up until about twenty years ago, the joke was, what's the easiest way to become a millionaire? Was you start a multimillionaire and then you buy a sports team and you lose your money.

当然，过去二十五年的情况完全相反——现在成为亿万富翁最简单的方式，就是你以千万富翁的身份买下体育球队。我们从未见过如此快速的回报。切尔西、丹佛野马队和菲尼克斯太阳队等球队易主时，交易金额都达到了40或50亿美元。从大多数客观财务指标来看，这都高得惊人。举个例，阿布拉莫维奇持有切尔西时，每周要自掏腰包填补百万美元的亏损。

And, of course, last twenty five years have been the exact opposite, which is what's the easiest way to become a billionaire, which is you start a multimillionaire and you buy sports teams. And we have never seen such rapid returns. Teams that have changed hands include Chelsea, Denver Broncos, and the Phoenix Suns, and they're all changing hands at 4 or $5,000,000,000. That's remarkably high by most objective kinds of financial metrics. Just to give you one example, Chelsea, when it was owned by Romanovich, a million dollars of losses per week were being funded by the owner.

关于估值暴涨的原因有很多理论。电视转播权的重要性急剧上升，带来了巨额收入流；也有人认为这属于准垄断行业，存在极高的准入壁垒。嗯。

There are lots of theories about why valuations have exploded. TV rights have just grown so massively in importance that they are getting remarkable amounts of revenue streams from that. Alternatively, it's quasi monopolistic. There's, like, huge barriers to coming in. Mhmm.

另一种观点则认为，这纯粹是

Or the other view of the world is it's just a lot

一群

of

疯狂的亿万富翁像小男孩般四处抢购心仪球队的表现。我很好奇，你如何看待这些解释和当前估值？

crazy billionaires running around being little boys buying their favorite sports teams. I'm curious. What do you make of those explanations and of these valuations?

我认为这主要是虚荣心作祟。当人人都有私人飞机、价值数亿美元的游艇时，你还能如何彰显身份？体育球队真正吸引人的地方，恰恰在于你提到的反垄断视角的反面，米希尔。

My sense is that it's mostly a vanity play. Everyone has a private jet. Everyone has yachts that cost hundreds of millions of dollars. And then how else are you gonna stand out? And what's really attractive about sports teams is the flip of the antitrust angle that you brought up, Mihir.

众所周知，球队的数量极有可能已经完全固定，即便未来有所扩张，也不会出现大幅度的增加。如果你有能力购买其中一支球队，你就拥有了绝大多数人无法企及的东西。对我来说，真正关键的问题是，这种超级富豪之间的竞争是否存在弊端？

We know the number of teams is in all likelihood completely fixed, or if it should ever expand, it's not going to expand so radically. If you're in a position to buy one of these teams, you know you have something that not many other people will have. For me, really, the big question is, are there downsides to that kind of competition among super rich people?

没错。

Right.

比如是否会导致票价上涨？或者是否会让城市被迫参与建造极其昂贵的体育场的交易？如果没有负面影响，这只是超级富豪之间的竞争游戏，而我既不会参与其中，也不太在意这些。

Is it somehow true that, say, ticket prices go up? Or is it somehow true that cities are forced into transactions where they build really expensive stadiums? If there's no downsides, it's competition among the super wealthy, and I'm not gonna be part of it, and I don't know that I care all that much.

是的。莱恩，你怎么看？

Right. What do you make of it, Lane?

这让我联想到两个小孩在操场上斗嘴的画面——我有百万美元！我有十亿！我有万亿！所有人都默认这是一项永远升值的资产。

It does strike me a little bit as, like, your image of two kids arguing on the playground. Well, I have a million dollars. Well, I have a billion dollars. Well, I have a trillion. Everyone just assumes that this is an asset that we'll always appreciate.

在这个有线电视退订潮的时代，体育赛事直播是少数能稳定吸引观众的节目，而NFL更是收视率之王。但这种情况是否存在临界点？像斯坦·克兰基这样坐拥无数球队的大佬是否会抛售资产？但可以预见的是，边际效益递减终将出现。

As we're in this era of cord cutting, live sports is one of the only draws that reliably does get viewers, and NFL is king of ratings. However, is there a tipping point with that? I don't know if this means that someone like Stan Cranky that owns a zillion franchises is ever going to sell, but you'd have to think that at some point, there's diminishing returns.

你对此有什么看法？

What's your take me here?

我认为这些既可能是出于虚荣心的购买，同时也是非常精明的投资机会。我通常觉得这两种情况都有可能。嗯。首先显而易见的是，在英超联赛中，我们看到主权国家带着巨额资本入场。是的。

I think it's conceivable that these are vanity purchases and yet really smart opportunities as well. I usually think both of those things are possible. Mhmm. So the first piece is, obviously, in the Premier League, we see sovereign nations coming in and with large amounts of capital. Yes.

他们让任何亿万富翁都相形见绌，而且他们愿意支付高价。因为他们追求的不是那种孩子气的胜利感——比如'我拥有了自己支持的球队'。他们获得的是国际舞台上的公信力，这价值连城。而我认为最深层次的观点是你提到的，菲利克斯，这些人都是经济行为体，他们会想办法从投资中获得回报。这可能涉及多种不同的方式。

And they make any billionaire look small, and they are willing to pay. Because they're not getting the boyish victory of, like, oh, I own the team I rooted for. They're getting credibility on world stages, and that's worth a lot. And then I think the deepest point is your point, Felix, which is these folks are economic actors, and they will find ways to get returns on their investment. And that could involve lots of different things.

当然，电视转播权在经济考量中扮演重要角色。但为什么这些转播权现在变得如此值钱？如果你对比贝利和C罗的职业生涯总收入，会发现一个有趣的现象：按每台电视机计算，他们赚取的金额几乎相同。所以我认为，媒体版权如今价值飙升是因为拥有了全球观众。确实如此。

It's, of course, true that TV rights play a big role in the economic calculation. But why is it that these TV rights are so much more valuable? If you look at Pile's lifetime income and then you look at Ronaldo's lifetime income, the fascinating comparison is on a per television basis, they're almost making the same amount of money. So my sense is the media rights are so much more valuable now because it's a global audience. Yeah.

人们在哪里观看英超联赛？我们过于关注球场内发生的事，但实际上应该看看马来西亚、印度尼西亚乃至整个亚洲。电视转播权之所以如此珍贵，是因为部分体育赛事拥有了真正的全球观众。在我看来，这个趋势已经基本形成。我不认为基本面的力量会让球队价值无限增长。

Where do people watch Premier League? Well, we're paying so much attention to what happens in the stadium, but really, we should look to Malaysia, Indonesia, all of Asia. The TV rights have become so valuable because we have a really global audience for a subset of sports. And that, I think, by and large has played out. I don't believe the underlying forces will make teams ever more valuable.

好吧，我要持相反观点。我不认为全球化进程已经结束。英超联赛在美国的渗透率还远远不够，这方面还有很大发展空间，我们拭目以待。

Well, I'm gonna take the opposite side. Okay. I don't think the globalization thing has played out. I don't think the Premier League is deeply penetrated in The US. I mean, there's a lot of room to run on that, but we'll see.

我会通知NFL你们已经失去兴趣了，好吧。我只能随大流了。

And I will alert the NFL that you folks are no longer interested, and Okay. I'll have to go along.

我们会联系你的银行家，看看能否获得那35亿美元的信贷额度。

And we will talk to your banker to see if we can get that 3 and a half billion dollar credit line.

对，就是这样。

Yeah. There we go.

Felix，你之前提到过你对网球经济学很感兴趣，以及它如何极度向顶尖选手倾斜。

Felix, you had mentioned earlier that you were interested in the economics of tennis and how it's kind of skewed towards the top of the top.

是的。这对我来说既有趣又令人惊讶，因为网球表面上是一项光鲜的运动，人们总把它与奢侈品和大合同联系在一起。但对大多数职业网球选手而言，现实情况是这行根本难以为继。如果你排名在200名开外，你连维持职业球员身份的成本都无法覆盖。许多选手甚至请不起专业教练。

Yes. It's so interesting and surprising to me also because tennis comes across as this really glamorous sport, and you associate it with all of these luxury goods and the big deals. The reality of tennis for most professional tennis players is that it's basically unsustainable. If you're outside the top 200, there is no way you can even cover the cost of being a professional tennis player. So many of these tennis players struggle to hire a professional coach.

嗯。这与其他体育项目形成鲜明对比。以NHL为例，联盟有700名球员，最低年薪70万美元，实际上多数球员收入超百万。所以总收入与球员个人所得之间的分配比例完全不同。

Mhmm. And that is remarkably different from other sports. If you take the NHL, for instance, there's 700 players. There's a minimum salary of $700,000, and the reality is that most players make more than a million. So the split between overall revenues and how much goes to the individual players is just radically different.

当你观察奖金池有多少比例流向顶尖选手时，除非你认为自己能打进前50或前40，否则任何商业逻辑都会告诉你应该远离网球。我很好奇该如何思考网球现状的利弊，特别是我们能做些什么来改善职业球员的处境？

When you look at what fraction of that total pool goes to the top players, unless you think you're going to break into the top 50 or the top 40, any sort of business logic would say you should stay away from tennis. And I'm curious to think through what's good about the state of affairs in tennis, what's problematic, and then in particular, what could we do in order to create a better situation for those professional tennis players?

网球在性别平等方面做得几乎比其他运动都好，这要归功于比利·简·金等人的努力。多年前女子赛事奖金就已几乎与男子持平。但由于男子三巨头和女子小威廉姆斯的长期垄断，财富愈发集中在少数人手中。如果竞争更均衡，奖金或许能分散些，但可能仍仅限于前十或十五名的选手。

One thing that tennis does really well and almost better than any other sport is gender equity because of the efforts of Billie Jean King and her peers. Years ago, we have a point where the women's prize money is almost on the same foot as the men's. But there's been such dominance at the top by the big three on the men's side and by Serena Williams on the women's side that I think that has contributed to this effect of concentrating the wealth in fewer hands. Maybe if there was more parity, there would be a little bit more money distributed, but that's probably still only amongst, like, the top ten, fifteen players.

嗯。

Mhmm.

关于你提到的50到200名选手的问题，那完全是另一个议题。考虑到网球是个人运动，缺乏工会机制来协商这些保障待遇，我们很难设想如何改变现状。这也让我思考，像杰西卡·佩古拉这样的选手——绝非质疑她的运动才能，她无疑是位出色的网球运动员——

To your point, about 50 to 200, that's a whole different issue. And it's hard to think about how you would go about changing this because there's not a union in which they bargain these guarantees because it is an individual sport. And it also makes me wonder when you have someone like Jessica Pagula, nothing against her athleticism. She's obviously a great tennis player.

嗯。

Mhmm.

但她同时出身于富豪家庭，我不禁怀疑这对其跻身顶级行列的助力有多大。

But she also is a scion of very wealthy people, and I wonder how much that's contributed to her ability to rise to that level.

你觉得我在这里表现如何？

What do you think of me here?

有意思的观点，莱恩。这让我想起之前和菲利克斯关于无偿劳动的讨论，某种程度上也关乎谁能在这些市场中取得成功。

Yeah. That's fascinating, Lane. I mean, I mean, hearkening back, Felix, to our conversation about unpaid labor a little bit about who gets to Yeah. Succeed in some of these markets. Yeah.

不过就我个人而言，这种现状可以接受。坦白说，我并不认为存在根本性问题：首先，这本质上是个人运动与团队运动的区别。这让我联想到我们之前关于姓名肖像权（NIL）的讨论——团队运动中存在收益共享机制。

But, you know, to me, it feels okay. I confess. I don't really see a problem in the following sense. First off, it feels like just inherently the nature of individual sports as opposed to team sports. And it kinda harkens back to our NIL conversation, which is part of what happens is you share the rents in these team sports.

就像汤姆·布雷迪的伟大表现会让左截锋获得更高薪酬，这是团队运动的特性。我难以想象这种模式能移植到个人运动中。网球在我看来更接近高尔夫，两者的成绩分布应该非常相似——想想看，高尔夫巡回赛中排名第75的选手，处境想必同样艰难。

So, like, Tom Brady is great, and the left tackle gets paid a little bit more because Tom Brady is part of the team. And that feels like something that happens in team sports. I can't imagine the dynamic that would allow that to persist into individual sports. So tennis to me feels like golf, which I think I would imagine would have a very similar distribution of outcomes. You know, again, being the seventy fifth player on the golf certificate, I think it's hard.

是的。所以我不认为这是个问题。相反，我认为网球在过去三十年里是一个巨大的成功故事，原因正如你提到的，莱恩，关于性别平等，但也许更因为那些天才的力量，因为塞雷娜、罗杰·费德勒以及所有这些非凡人物的存在。我认为网球是成功的。对于那些在巡回赛中排名第七十五位的选手来说，处境艰难吗？

Yeah. So I don't see it as a problem. And if anything, I think of tennis as a great success story over the last thirty years for reasons you mentioned, Lane, about gender equity, but maybe because of the power of the talent, because of who Serena is and Roger Federer and all these really remarkable people. I think of tennis as a success. Is it a hard situation for the folks who are seventy fifth on the circuit?

是的。也许吧。但我不确定这是否是个问题。我不清楚。你觉得呢，菲利克斯？

Yeah. Maybe. But I don't know if that's a problem. I don't know. What do you think, Felix?

我确实认为这个故事有一个有趣的组织角度。如果你看看ATP，这个代表球员的主要机构，其中一个重大问题在于它被赛事和球员双方共同代表，而这两者由同一个组织代表。这显然存在利益冲突，因为赛事方显然有动力让球员分成保持较小份额，让大部分利益流向顶尖选手，因为这样才能创造兴奋点、吸引观众、抬高票价。在我看来，这不是自然形成的结果，实际上与网球是个人运动这一事实并无必然联系。

I do think there's an interesting organizational angle to the story. So if you look at the ATP, the main representative body for players, one of the really big issues is that it's split between the tournaments and the players who are both represented by the same organization. And that, of course, is a conflict of interest right there because the tournaments obviously have every interest to keep the player share small and have most of the benefits go to the very top players because that's what creates the excitement, the audience, the high ticket prices. That strikes me as not a natural outcome and actually not having really to do with the fact that tennis is an individual sport.

我确实觉得网球领域有很多利益冲突可以厘清。无论是通过某种球员组织，还是某个中间机构——不是ITA，而是能决定'美网运营成本占多少，球员分成占多少'的独立机构...运营方显然不该同时决定这些。这看起来才健康。但我不确定如何说服美网放弃这种权力，因为谁愿意在掌握权力和金钱时放手呢？

It does strike me that there is a lot of untangling of conflicts of interest that there could be done in tennis. And whether that's through some sort of organization of players or just some intermediate body that's deciding, not the ITA, but something that's deciding, okay, US Open, this is the cut for operations, this is the cut for players and not Mhmm. The operating body. That does seem like that should be healthy. I don't know how you go about convincing the US Open to relinquish that, because who wants to give up power and money when they have it?

是的。让我思考的一个因素是，这对考虑从事体育职业的年轻人意味着什么。大约只有2%的大学生运动员能进入职业联盟，这个概率真的非常非常低。

Yeah. One element that strikes me we're thinking about is what this means for young people who think about a potential career in sports. Yeah. About two percent of college athletes make it into the pro leagues. The probabilities are really, really low.

你不该以为通过打大学橄榄球就有合理机会成为职业选手。令人担忧的是，根据对年轻人的调查，他们的预期完全被误导了。篮球和冰球的情况最严重——75%的大学球员认为他们'较有可能'开启职业生涯。而如果分散资金，让维持某种职业生活变得更容易，只会进一步误导孩子们，让他们以为这真是条可行的职业道路。但事实并非如此。

You shouldn't really think by playing college football, you have a reasonable chance. And what's troubling about this is that the expectations when you look at surveys of young people are completely misguided. It's worst in basketball and in ice hockey where seventy five percent of college players say it's somewhat likely that they will have a pro career. And of course, spreading money around and making it easier to sustain some sort of a professional life would only further misguide the kids to think that this is an actual career and that this would actually be a way to make a living. It's not.

没错。这很有趣。我必须说这个故事最后让我欣赏的部分是，对冲基金偶像比尔·阿克曼决定接手组织球员的事业，他成立了一个名为'赢家联盟'的营利组织什么的。一个对冲基金巨头走上街头高喊'全世界运动员联合起来'的讽刺画面，我觉得简直妙极了。

Yeah. That's fascinating. I gotta say the final piece of this story that I love is that Bill Ackman, hedge fund icon, has decided to take on the cause of organizing the players and has started I think it's gonna be a for profit winners alliance or something like that. And just the irony of a hedge fund titan going to the streets and saying workers of the world unite is, I think, pretty fantastic.