乌克兰战争——将如何收场？

大家好，这里是《下班时间》，我是Felix。

Hello, everyone. This is After Hours. I'm Felix.

我是Mihir。我是Rowie。Rowie。

I'm Mihir. I'm Rowie. Rowie.

欢迎回来，Rowie。

Welcome back, Rowie.

Rowie回来了。

Rowie's back.

回来真好。

It's nice to be back.

真是重聚啊。

What a reunion.

确实是重聚。说到重聚，校园里有个校友聚会。

A reunion indeed. Speaking of reunions, there's an alumni reunion on campus.

这周。没错。你知道我在节目安排上看到什么了吗？我们三个人要同时上台。

This week. Yes. And you know what I saw in the program? The three of us are presenting at the same time.

哦。我们在竞争。天啊。我想我们都知道结果会怎样。拉维肯定会大谈世界议题。

Oh. We are in competition. Oh my god. I think we know how that's gonna go. Rawi's gonna be talking big world issues.

是啊。

Yeah.

而我会喝着半心半意的咖啡。

And I'll have coffee with half a soul.

没错，正是这样。

Yeah. Exactly.

我们请你回来是要讨论一个严肃话题。距离我们上次讨论乌克兰战争，现在大概有七八个月了吧。

We have brought you back for a serious topic. It's now, I think, seven, eight months since we talked about the war in Ukraine.

嗯。

Yeah.

你对冲突的历史根源及其思考方式提供了非常深刻的见解。现在正是请你回来告诉我们最新进展的时候。你认为战争会如何发展？我有无数问题想请教你。

And you provided such great insight on the historical roots of the conflict, how to think about it. And it's high time to have you back and tell us what's been happening. Where do we think the war will go? I have a million questions for you.

确实如此。我也是。

Indeed. Me too.

我们不妨在第三次世界大战开始前谈谈这个。

And we might as well before World War three begins.

这开场可真是乐观啊。

This is starting off on an optimistic note.

是的，非常乐观。

Yes. Very

非常乐观。会顺利的。那么罗威，说说你在观察这场冲突演变过程中遇到的意外情况吧。你觉得自己学到了哪些之前可能不了解的东西？

much. It's gonna go well. So, Rowie, tell me about the surprises for you as you've seen this conflict evolve. What do you think you've learned that maybe you didn't know before?

其中一个令人意外的时刻是，当纽约联邦储备银行冻结了俄罗斯央行存放在那里的外汇储备时，俄罗斯人的反应就像是：嘿，老兄，你偷了我的外汇储备。

One of the surprising moments was when the Federal Reserve Bank of New York froze foreign exchange reserves that the Central Bank of Russia had in deposit there, which the Russians experienced as like, hey, man. You stole my foreign exchange reserves.

你说得对。

You Right.

我甚至不知道原来还能这样做，这引发了全球范围内不以美元交易各类商品的创新尝试，通过避开美元来缓解二级制裁的压力。我认为另一个意外是乌克兰防御的顽强程度。我想乌克兰之外没人能料到乌军乃至平民百姓能够抵挡住俄军的攻势。是的。然后我觉得最大的惊喜或许是欧洲在此事上的团结以及跨大西洋对乌支持的统一战线超出了我的预期。

I didn't even know that that was a thing that you could do, which has led to a lot of innovation around the world of trading various commodities not in dollars, trying to avoid the dollar to relieve some of the pressure from the secondary sanctions. I think another surprise has been how robust the Ukrainian defense has been. I don't think there was anyone outside of Ukraine who thought that the Ukrainian military, and the civilian population too, would be able to withstand this assault from the Russian military. Yeah. And then I think perhaps the biggest surprise is that European unity on this issue and transatlantic unity on the support for Ukraine has exceeded my expectations.

嗯。你原本的预期可能就比较低。

Mhmm. Which you're probably low to begin with.

他们本来预期就很低。

They were low to begin with.

现在我们处于完全不同的局面了。

Now we're in a very different place.

你呢，米希尔？什么让你感到意外？

What about you, Mihir? What surprised you?

我对这些问题的认知比拉维天真得多，但乌克兰人民及其防御力量——无论是平民还是军队——的坚韧确实令人惊叹。俄罗斯对我来说仍是个谜。拉维，在征兵令发布前，俄罗斯尽管遭受诸多制裁，却似乎依然我行我素。有相当大比例的俄罗斯民众根本没有把这场战争真正纳入他们的生活现实。嗯。

So I'm much more naive about these issues than Raui, but certainly the fortitude of the Ukrainian people and their defenses, civilian as well as military, has just been completely remarkable. I think Russia remains a mystery to me. Rawi, in so many ways, up until the draft was announced, it seemed that Russia, despite all these sanctions, was kinda going on its way. And there was large chunks of the Russian population that were just not really incorporating this reality into their lives. Mhmm.

我也觉得这同样令我感到惊讶。而且持续让人惊讶的是思考普京如何看待世界，并试图推测他下一步可能会采取什么行动。嗯。这种对他理性与疯狂并存的奇怪欣赏。嗯。

And I think that was surprising to me as well. And then it just continues to be surprising to think about how Putin thinks about the world and trying to game out what he may go for next. Mhmm. It's this weird appreciation for his rationality, but also his irrationality. Mhmm.

我认为这三件事确实让我印象深刻。Felix，你有什么感到惊讶的事情吗？

I think those are the three things that have really struck me. Felix, have you been surprised by things?

是的。我想部分动员令让我感到意外，因为这似乎一直是俄罗斯让战争隐形化的有效手段。没错。但和其他人一样，乌克兰在战场上的相对成功也令人意外。

Yeah. I think I was surprised by the partial mobilization because that always seemed to be part of what was working for Russia to basically keep the war invisible. Yeah. But then like everyone else, the relative success on the battlefield of the Ukrainians.

毫无疑问，俄罗斯政权原本预期这场行动会进展得更快更顺利，部分原因是他们投入了大量资金用于俄军现代化

There's no question that the Russian regime expected this to go much more quickly and much more smoothly, in part because so much money had been poured into the modernization of the Russian military

嗯。

Mhmm.

在普京执政时期。嗯。大家都知道其中部分资金被贪污，用于购买别墅和游艇而非武器装备或训练。但我们看到的现实是，俄军现代化进程中究竟有多少资金根本没有用到军队建设上。

During the Putin era. Mhmm. I think everybody knew that some of that money was stolen and bought villas and yachts rather than weaponry or went into training. But I think one of the things we're seeing is really just how much of that Russian military modernization involved movement of funds that did not make their way to the Russian military.

是的。所以你的意思是装备短缺？

Yeah. And so it's a lack of equipment is your sense?

我认为是装备不足、训练匮乏。嗯。战场战术方面——虽然我并非专家——也相当过时。嗯。根据军事专家的说法。

I think a lack of equipment, a lack of training. Mhmm. And the battlefield tactics, and I am no expert on this to be sure, are so retro Mhmm. According to military experts.

嗯。

Mhmm.

当你面对乌克兰这种顽强的防御时，会遭遇截然不同的挑战。

When you run up against this stout Ukrainian defense, it's a very different kind of challenge.

罗伊，我想听听你对另一种解读的看法。绝不能低估人们信念的力量。当他们为自认为正义的存亡时刻而战时，那种意志力简直不可思议。是的。而另一方面，当任务本身带有更多可疑性时，就很难这样激励部队。

I wonder what you make, Rowie, of the other interpretation of this. You cannot underestimate the power of people's beliefs. And when they are fighting for what they view as a righteous existential moment, that their will is just remarkable. Yeah. And that on the other side, when there's a slightly more dubious mission associated with it, it's just hard to stir up troops in that way.

这是第一点。第二点是，你如何看待西方为乌克兰反击提供的各类武器装备？

So that's the first. And then the second is, how do you make sense of the kind of armaments that have been provided by the West in the Ukrainians effort to kind of fight back?

俄罗斯总统在西部和白俄罗斯集结的部队原本被告知是去参加演习。结果突然之间，他们就像是在入侵一个有亲友居住的另一个国家

The forces that the Russian president had amassed in Western Russia and in Belarus had been told that they were going on a training exercise. And then all of a sudden, they're like invading another country where they have relatives and aunties and nephews and

嗯。

Mhmm.

奶奶们。我想基本上没有俄罗斯军人愿意在乌克兰与乌克兰作战。

Grandmas. I imagine that basically none of the Russian military personnel wants to be in Ukraine fighting against Ukraine.

没错。

Right.

当然，那些被动员的人也不想去。嗯。而正如你所说，米希尔，乌克兰人是在为维护国家领土完整而战。他们是在为自己的家园而战。所以这是两种截然不同的动机。

Certainly, the people who have been mobilized do not want to go. Mhmm. Whereas to your point, Mihir, the Ukrainians are fighting for the territorial integrity of their country. They're fighting for their homes. So that's a very different set of motivations.

关于西方为乌克兰提供各类军事装备支持的问题，我认为这是这场冲突中最棘手的因素之一。西方迄今为止给予乌克兰的支持，足以让乌克兰在战争中形成某种僵局，阻止俄罗斯的推进，但不足以让乌克兰赢得战争——即把所有俄罗斯军人赶出乌克兰领土。我认为正是这种僵局，成为当前冲突中最复杂也最危险的元素之一。

On the question of Western support with various kinds of military equipment for Ukraine, I think this is one of the trickiest elements of the conflict, and that is what the West has given to Ukraine so far has been enough for Ukraine to achieve a kind of stalemate in the war to halt Russian advances, but not enough for Ukraine to win the war in the sense of pushing all of Russian military personnel out of the territory of Ukraine. And I think it is that stalemate that is one of the most complicated and frankly dangerous elements of the conflict that we have.

你是指西方可能不希望将局势推到让俄罗斯遭遇惨败的地步，因为这可能导致更危险的局面？

And are you referencing the fact that the West may not want to push things so far that Russia has an abject loss because that could turn into something much more dangerous?

其中一个逻辑肯定是试图避免被莫斯科政权视为战争的直接参战方。嗯。所以就像是在试探西方能在不引发第三次世界大战的前提下做到什么程度——因为一旦被视为参与者而非仅仅是支持乌克兰军队，情况就不同了。

One of the logics is definitely trying to avoid being regarded by the regime in Moscow as being a direct combatant in the war. Mhmm. So, like, bumping up against how much the West can do without starting World War three because we are regarded as a participant as opposed to just supporting the Ukrainian military.

这也反映出乌克兰方面一个有趣的方向调整。胜利到底意味着什么？我想战争初期我们以为只要把俄军赶回2月前的战线就行，想着那些被侵占的东部领土拿不回来了。嗯。克里米亚也收不回了。

It also reflects an interesting reorientation on the Ukrainian side. What does it even mean to win? I think early in the war was while we pushed the Russians back to where we were in February, thinking that you're not going to get back the land that was stolen Mhmm. In the east of the country. You're not going to get back Crimea.

那是起点。交付的武器与这一雄心相匹配，实质上阻止了俄罗斯的入侵，并因军事成功将他们逼退回原有战线。突然间，胜利的含义变得不同。如今当他们谈论胜利时，我认为字面意思就是将俄军彻底赶出乌克兰东部地区并夺回克里米亚——这在早期对话中根本未被提及。确实如此。

That was the starting point. And the weapons that were delivered matched that ambition, essentially stopping the Russian invasion and pushing them back to the old lines because of the military success. So all of a sudden, what it means to win was something different. Now when they talk about winning, I think it's literally means pushing the Russians out of all the eastern parts of Ukraine and then getting back Crimea, which wasn't really on the table in the early conversations. And so Absolutely.

现在来看，关于当前胜利的定义，他们显然缺乏实现这一目标的武器装备。

Now when you look at Yeah. What it means to win now, they definitely don't have the weapons to accomplish that goal.

我认为你说得对，菲利克斯。这引出了一个更宏大的问题：如果乌克兰无法以那种方式获胜，我们该如何看待俄罗斯不会失败这一事实？是的，从某种意义上说...

I think that's right, Felix. And then I think it raises this bigger question. If Ukraine can't win in that sense, how do we think about the fact that Russia won't lose? Yeah. In the sense that Yeah.

没错。普京总统不可能召回所有人然后说'抱歉搞砸了，我们要放弃这些领土'——何况在克里姆林宫看来这些地区已被'合法'吞并。这种情况同样不会发生。

Right. President Putin calls everybody back and says, sorry about that. Right. It didn't work out, so we're gonna give up these territories that we have just, by the way, legally, as far as we are concerned, in the Kremlin annexed. That's not going to happen either.

因此我看到的巨大危险在于这种平衡：俄罗斯不会以我们期望乌克兰获胜的方式失败。那么当俄军在坚守其宣称已吞并的领土时陷入困境（他们绝不会主动撤离），接下来会引发什么棘手局面？普京若输掉这场战争就无法继续掌权，这似乎再清楚不过。

And so the biggest danger I see is this balance between the fact that Russia is not going to lose in the sense that we might want Ukraine to win. Yeah. And so then how do we play out the scenarios associated with if the Russian military gets in big trouble holding territories that they claim to have annexed and they're not gonna just leave, what next problematic thing is going to unfold? President Putin can't lose this war and stay in power. That seems crystal clear.

完全同意。

Totally agree.

这与历史记录高度吻合。观察战争如何终结时，存在两种极端：成熟的民主国家很擅长结束战争，最残暴的独裁政权同样如此。无法终结战争的政权，往往是那些战场成败与统治者个人命运紧密捆绑的政体。一战或许是最极端的例子——德皇大概半年后就意识到德国无法取胜。

That's pretty consistent with the historical record. If you look at how do wars end, there's sort of the two extremes. Full fledged democracies are pretty good at ending wars, and the most brutal dictatorships are also pretty good at ending wars. The regimes that can't end wars are the regimes where somehow success on the battlefield is tied up with the personal fortune and the personal fate of those in power. I think World War one is maybe the most extreme example where the Kaiser saw probably after half a year that the Germans couldn't win.

战争又持续了四年

And it went on for another four years

嗯

Mhmm.

只因你们明白，战败就意味着帝国的终结。所以我们正处于最糟糕的境地。

Simply because you knew that's also the end of the Reich if you lose the war. And so we're in the worst of circumstances.

嗯

Mhmm.

某种意义上我们缺乏足够的独裁——他完全不受制约，但我们也并非真正民主的国家。

We don't have enough dictatorship in some sense that he's just untouchable, and we also don't have a country where what people want really counts.

我认为完全正确。这引出了一个问题：战争为何而打？所有战争最终都会以某种和解告终。

I think that's exactly right. And it raises the question of, like, why wars get fought? Wars all eventually end with some sort of settlement.

嗯

Mhmm.

战斗将持续到各方明确可能的和解轮廓为止。谁会放弃什么？目前这一切都完全不明朗。

And they continue to be fought until it's clear what the contours of the settlement are likely to be. Who's going to give up what? And that is absolutely not clear right now.

嗯，嗯。

Mhmm. Mhmm.

因此俄罗斯总统现在可能愿意以赫尔松、扎波罗热、顿涅茨克、卢甘斯克以及克里米亚为条件结束战争。

So probably the Russian president would be willing to end the war right now with Kherson and Zaporizhzhia and Donetsk and Luhansk and, of course, Crimea.

嗯。

Mhmm.

而这对乌克兰总统——我相信也对绝大多数乌克兰人民来说，目前都是不可想象的。所以在和解轮廓明确之前，战斗将会继续。

And that's, at the moment, inconceivable for the Ukrainian president and for, I'm sure, the vast majority of Ukrainian people. And so until we know what the contours of some settlement will be, the fighting will continue.

我能请教乌克兰经济在这其中的作用吗？由于进行这场无力承担的战争，通胀率已达20%左右。央行预测到年底通胀率将达到30%左右。乌克兰经济是否会在某个时间点成为决定性因素——考虑到欧盟的援助有限，实际给予乌克兰的资金远不及预期和承诺。是否可能发展到经济代价过于沉重，迫使乌克兰不得不接受和解，尽管从纯军事角度看战场仍有机会？

Can I ask you about the role of the Ukrainian economy in all of this? Inflation runs roughly 20% or so because they're fighting a war that they cannot afford. And I think the central bank prediction is that by the end of year, inflation will be at 30% or so. Is the Ukrainian economy a big factor that at some point in time you just say, look, there's limited assistance in particular from the EU, not as much money has been given to Ukraine as many expected and as they promised. Could it be that you get to the point where the economic cost for Ukraine is so big that you have to accept even though maybe from a narrow military point of view, you see opportunities still on the battlefield?

至少我的直觉直接告诉我不会。是的，我认为不存在能迫使乌克兰总统走上谈判桌的经济逻辑。

At least my intuition is simply no. Yeah. There's no economic logic that will push the Ukrainian president to the negotiating table. I don't think.

我认为西方支持他的意愿相当强烈。这也能让他暂时忽略经济逻辑，

And the West's appetite for supporting him is pretty significant, I think Yeah. Which can also let him ignore economic logics for

一段时间。

a while.

让我稍作反驳。以武器形式提供的支持，或多或少直接转化为对抗俄罗斯的手段。嗯。我认为我们战线统一。但想想如果问题是乌克兰的退休人员再也负担不起食物和取暖费用时会发生什么。

Let me push back maybe a little bit. So support in the form of weaponry, support in ways that more or less directly translate into pushing back Russia. Mhmm. I think we have a uniform front. But then think about what happens if the question is pensioners in Ukraine can no longer afford food, can no longer afford heating.

西方会为接下来几年支付每个人的养老金吗？到那时，即使你处在泽连斯基的位置，我认为乌克兰民众的考量也会不同，因为这不仅会让生活像现在这样极度危险，而且简直让在乌克兰生存几乎不可能。

Is the West going to pay everybody's pensions for the next couple of years? At that moment in time, even if you're in Zelensky's position, I think the calculus among the population in Ukraine will be different because it'll make life not only incredibly dangerous the way it is right now, but it literally make it almost impossible to exist in Ukraine.

我不认为，至少没有任何迹象表明乌克兰民众因为对未来经济现实的担忧而动摇过对事业的支持。

I don't think, or at least I don't have any sense that the Ukrainian population has wavered for a second in its support of the cause because of anxieties about future economic realities.

嗯。

Mhmm.

如果难以想象乌克兰会做出让步，我们如何能看到和解的轮廓变得清晰？我讨厌提及普京可能采取更严厉军事行动的幽灵，但这是否是僵局被打破的契机？

If it's hard to imagine Ukraine ever conceding, how do we get to a point where the outlines of a settlement become clear? And I hate to raise the specter of more harsh military actions by Putin, but is that where the stalemate breaks down?

嗯。

Mhmm.

有哪些情境能让这种僵局被打破，直到解决方案的轮廓变得清晰？

What are the scenarios that allow that stalemate to break down until allow the outlines of a settlement to become clear?

假设俄罗斯总统在战争期间继续掌权——这已不再是唯一合理的假设。但既然我们不知道下任俄罗斯总统会是温和派还是比普京更难对付，让我们暂且假设普京总统的谈判立场是我们需要认真对待的。那么问题在于，普京总统需要什么样的台阶来宣告某种胜利，某种军事和战略目标已经达成的感觉？有没有可能想象这样一套战略和军事目标不包含克里米亚以外的领土要求？我个人目前看不到这种可能性。

So assuming that the Russian president remains in power over the course of the war, which is no longer the only reasonable assumption to make. But since we don't know whether the next Russian president will be a sweetheart or more challenging than president Putin, let's just assume for the moment it's president Putin whose negotiating stance is the one that we need to take seriously. Then the question is, what is an off ramp for president Putin to declare some sort of victory, some sort of sense that military and strategic objectives have been reached? And is there any way to imagine that that set of strategic and military objectives do not include territorial considerations beyond Crimea? And I personally cannot see that right now.

嗯。

Mhmm.

保留克里米亚对普京总统至关重要，这一点非常明确。仅仅保留克里米亚，却没有实现其他任何战略或军事目标，我认为这在当前是无法通过谈判达成的。

Keeping Crimea is crystal clear that that's essential for president Putin. Just keeping Crimea, but not having any other strategic or military objectives achieved, I think is not something that can be negotiated right now.

嗯。所以你的基本预测结果就是这样？意味着我们未来十二个月都将维持现状？

Mhmm. So your base case outcome is that, which is we're here for the next twelve months?

我目前看不到任何通过谈判解决的可能，无论是十二个月、六个月、两年还是五年。现在谈判桌上没有任何双方都能接受的方案。

I see no way to a negotiated settlement right now, whether it's twelve months or six months or two years or five years. But we don't have anything on the table that would be acceptable to both sides.

经济在俄罗斯方面扮演什么角色？

What's the role of the economy on the Russian side?

制裁无疑正在破坏俄罗斯经济的中长期健康发展。

The sanctions are definitely undermining the medium run and long run health of the Russian economy.

嗯。

Mhmm.

这一点毫无疑问。

There's no question about that.

是的。嗯。

Yeah. Mhmm.

这些制裁确实有效地惩罚了一些精英阶层，即所谓的寡头，以及许多俄罗斯公民。

They have certainly been effective in punishing some of the elites, the so called oligarchs, and many Russian citizens.

嗯。

Mhmm.

毫无疑问，制裁对俄罗斯经济产生了一些短期影响，虽然令人失望，但还不至于造成灾难性后果。

And there's no question that the sanctions have had some shorter term effects on the Russian economy that are disappointing, but not catastrophic.

嗯，嗯。

Mhmm. Mhmm.

最终，当俄罗斯被切断技术流动、飞机零件和汽车零件的供应时

Eventually, when Russia is cut off from technology flows and airplane parts and car parts

嗯。

Mhmm.

这对俄罗斯经济将非常不利。但就目前而言，据我所知，他们还在勉强维持。另一个棘手的问题是，能源制裁也限制了全球能源供应，导致价格上涨。

That's going to be very bad for the Russian economy. But right now, as far as I can tell, they're sort of going along. And one of the other tricky things is that the sanctions on energy have also limited the supply of energy in the world so that prices have gone up.

嗯。

Mhmm.

以月度计算，俄罗斯政府的美元收入即使没有增加，也至少保持了原有水平。

And on a per month basis, the Russian state is making just as much, if not more, in dollar terms

没错。

Right.

靠能源出口维持，是的。在战争之前。

Off of energy exports as they were Yeah. Before the war.

这是制裁中一个有趣的方面，我不确定自己完全理解。现在有大量讨论：该不该购买俄罗斯能源？长期后果是什么？我对此有些困惑，因为如果实施制裁让外界无法向俄罗斯供应任何物资，其实就不必在意他们是否在出售能源。

That's an interesting aspect of the sanctions that I'm not sure I completely understand. There's this huge conversation. Should you buy energy from Russia? What are the long term consequences? And I'm a little confused about that because if in fact you have sanctions so that no one supplies Russia with anything from outside Russia, you don't really care whether they're selling energy.

因为在一个拥有惊人出口业务、赚取大量美元的世界里，如果这些美元买不到任何东西——既无法获得技术，也买不到消费品——那么制裁其实已经在即时生效。人们会提到俄罗斯今年预计2600亿美元的经常账户盈余，这确实是个巨额数字，但背景是进口已被大幅削减。

Because in a world where you have an amazing export business and you're earning all of these dollars, but there's nothing to buy with these dollars because you can't get access to technology. You can't get access to consumer products. The sanctions are working even in an immediate sense. So people will point to the $260,000,000,000 current account surplus that Russia expects this year. And that's, of course, it's a really big sum of money, but it's against the backdrop of imports being cut in, I think, a really radical fashion.

到三月左右，进口下降了约50%，每月约50亿美元。随后俄罗斯将进口数据列为国家机密——这绝非巧合。所以这个复杂问题确实值得思考：我们该买吗？不该买吗？难道要在冬天挨冻？

By March or so, imports had dropped by about 50%, about $5,000,000,000 per month. And then Russia declared the import numbers a state secret, not by coincidence. So I do think this complicated question, should we buy? Should we not buy? Should we freeze during the winter?

这一切似乎都基于一种假设：只要俄罗斯拥有美元，就能为其经济买到所需一切。而制裁正是要让这种情况变得困难甚至不可能。

It's all seems to be predicated on a notion that somehow once Russia has dollars, it can buy whatever it needs for its own economy. And the sanctions are supposed to make that scenario hard or maybe even impossible.

我认为制裁机制面临的挑战之一是：无论制裁多严厉，都不可能让俄罗斯总统改变他的战略考量

Well, I think one of the challenges of the sanctions regime is that there's no world in which Russia could be sanctioned so much that the Russian president would change his calculations about

战争的进程。嗯。

the course of the war. Mhmm.

没有机制能促成这种情况发生。

There's no mechanism to cause that to happen.

所以

So

从这个意义上说，这不是威慑。这不是战略改变。这纯粹就是惩罚。所以一个被广泛讨论的问题——我很想听听你的看法——就是俄罗斯总统在威胁使用大规模杀伤性武器时是否在虚张声势，无论是对乌克兰发动战术核打击，还是化学武器袭击、生物武器袭击，甚至是蓄意破坏核电站。你怎么看？

in that sense, it's not deterrence. It's not a change of strategy. It's really simply punishment. So one of the questions that's been much discussed, and I would love to hear your thoughts about it, is whether the Russian president is bluffing when he threatens the use of weapons of mass destruction, whether it's a tactical nuclear strike in Ukraine or a chemical weapons attack or a biological weapons attack or, in fact, the purposeful destruction of a nuclear power plant. What is your sense?

天啊。这真的很难说。我的直觉是核武器周围有一条明确的红线。我认为——当然也希望——他不会跨越的界限就是实际的核武器使用红线，因为我想他明白那将带来关乎存亡的后果。嗯。

Oh, gosh. So this is really hard. My instincts are that there is a bright line around nuclear weapons. I think, and I obviously hope, that the line that he won't cross is the actual nuclear line, because I think he understands that the consequences of that would be completely existential. Mhmm.

我不知道，费利克斯。你怎么看？

I don't know, Felix. What do you think?

我可能比你更悲观一些。根据拉维描述的情景——目前根本没有任何谈判空间，也看不到任何形式的解决方案——那么问题在于，如果乌克兰人在战场上取得成功，你会怎么做？我认为我们目前看到的回应就是攻击民用基础设施。

I think I'm a little more pessimistic than you. Given Ravi's scenario, which is there's just no negotiation, there's no space for any sort of settlement that we see at this moment in time, then the question is if the Ukrainians are successful on the battlefield, what do you do? I think the response that we see right now is you go after civilian infrastructure.

对。

Right.

你试图让平民付出巨大代价。而我认为西方的回应将是各国加强乌克兰的防御力量。如果乌克兰在战场上继续取得成功，问题就变成了：接下来该怎么办？有什么可用的手段？我有种感觉，他肯定会动用战术武器。

You try to inflict huge cost on the civilian population. And the response from the West, I think, will be that countries will strengthen Ukraine's defensive forces. If then Ukraine and success on the battlefield continues, the question is like, what do you do next? What's available? And there, I have a sense that he will use tactical for sure.

所以不是大规模核战争，但他会使用核武器。你可以想到很多方式来限制其对乌克兰造成的直接伤害。比如有人讨论过在海洋上空引爆一枚，也有人提议在人口稀少的地区使用。我有个直觉——当然不知道对不对——西方对核武器部署最糟糕的回应会是什么？

So not a big nuclear war, but he will use nuclear weapons. And you can think of many ways to do it to limit the immediate damage that they will inflict on Ukraine. So people have talked about maybe detonating one over the ocean. People have talked about in areas that are not very populated to begin with. And one intuition that I have, and obviously, I have no idea whether I'm right or not, is that what's the worst thing that the West can do in response to a nuclear deployment?

我认为即使在他使用战术核武器后，北约仍然不愿参战。嗯。我对红线的理解是：他采取某些行动导致北约卷入冲突。

It's still the case, I think, even after we see him use tactical nuclear weapons, that NATO does not want to fight this war. Mhmm. The way I think about the red line is he does something that then draws NATO into the conflict.

对。

Right.

那显然意味着普京的终结，以及战后俄罗斯地位的彻底改变。所以在我看来，他的红线是‘不能做任何触发北约干预的事’。但战术核武器的使用应该低于这个阈值。

And that obviously will be the end of Putin and a very different status for Russia afterwards. So I think in my imagination, his red line is I cannot do anything that will trigger NATO intervention. But I think the use of tactical nuclear weapons is below that threshold.

哇。好吧。我不同意这个观点。拉维，你怎么看

Wow. Okay. So I disagree with that. Yeah. Ravi, what do you make

关于这个问题？我认为这确实是个关键疑问，即米希尔的直觉更接近现实还是菲利克斯的直觉更接近现实，我们无从得知。但我觉得克里姆林宫的思路是试图采取某种行动，迫使基辅政权让步并达成某种对俄罗斯可接受的解决方案，这可能意味着要动用恐怖手段。但这种恐怖程度应该不至于大到直接引发北约介入冲突。嗯。

of it? So I think that's really the big question in a way, which is whether Mihir's intuition is closer to the reality or Felix's intuition is closer to the reality, and we don't know. But I think the logic from the Kremlin is trying to do something that would lead to the regime in Kyiv to relent and come to some sort of settlement that would be acceptable to Russia, which might require horror. But the horror probably should not be large enough to draw NATO directly into the conflict. Mhmm.

嗯。而且我认为俄罗斯总统相信对乌克兰发动战术打击尚在西方容忍阈值之下，但我们无法确定。

Mhmm. And I think that the Russian president believes that a tactical strike in Ukraine is below that threshold for the West, but we don't know.

确实。我承认我的直觉是——如果在欧洲大陆使用核武器，我认为奥拉夫·朔尔茨和欧盟都会认为这将彻底改变游戏规则。

Yeah. I confess my intuitions are, if there is the use of nuclear weapons on the European continent, I think Olof Scholz, I think the EU, and I think it's a complete game changer.

我认为另一个问题是这是否会改变世界其他国家的立场。这对中国或印度是否构成红线？这些国家尚未对战争表明坚定立场，但已暗示这可能是俄罗斯越界的一步。

I think another question is whether that's a game changer for other countries in the world. If that's a red line for China or a red line for Yeah. India, Those are countries that have not yet taken a firm position on the war, but have certainly hinted that that might be one step too far for Russia.

好的。听起来不错。我们休息后再继续这个话题。好的。好的。

Okay. That sounds good. Let's do that after the break. Okay. Okay.

如果这些还不够复杂的话，我们还有像中国和印度这样一直在扮演更沉默角色的新兴玩家。

So if all that was not complicated enough, we have rising players like China and India who had been playing us more silent role.

嗯。

Mhmm.

但我不确定你最近是否关注了这件事，Rowie。至少在西方媒体的描述中，最近几次会议上中国和印度似乎以新的方式表达了对俄罗斯的不满。我很好奇你认为这是事实还是空谈？如果是真的，这对普京的地位和他的决策意味着什么？又该如何理解中印两国对这场冲突的看法？

But I'm not sure if you followed this recently, Rowie. It seemed, least as it was portrayed in the West, that in recent meetings, both China and India signaled their displeasure with Russia in a new way. I'm curious whether you think that's true or if it's just cheap talk. And if it is true, what does that mean for Putin's position and how his calculations work? And what does it mean for how China and India think about this conflict?

世界上有许多国家，当然包括中国和俄罗斯，在某种程度上也包括印度，它们都表达了这样的观点：无论你在自己国家管理什么事务都是你的内政，与其他国家无关，无论你试图在国内处理什么问题。

There are many countries in the world, certainly including China and Russia, and to a certain extent, India, that have expressed the view that whatever you are managing in your country is your business, and that it's not really anybody else's business, whatever issues you're trying to manage in your country.

嗯。

Mhmm.

从中国和印度的态度中可以感觉到，他们几乎将此事视为俄罗斯内部事务，或至少是斯拉夫民族内部事务。

And one gets the sense from China and India that they almost are treating this as a sort of internal Russian or at least internal Slavic matter

嗯。嗯。

Mhmm. Mhmm.

需要自行解决。嗯。无论普京总统作何感想，这都并非他们分内之事。

To be sorted out. Mhmm. And it's not really their business, whatever president Putin feels like

他

he

需要做的。嗯。但这些国家似乎也有自己的红线。具体是什么尚不明确，但可能包括使用某种大规模杀伤性武器。这会影响到普京总统的决策考量吗？

needs to do. Mhmm. But it does seem like there are some red lines for those countries as well. And what they are exactly, not clear, but might include some sort of use of weapon of mass destruction. Then would that matter for president Putin's calculations?

我认为很可能不会。这场战争已经发展到具有自身逻辑的阶段。即使俄罗斯作为一个国家被完全孤立，包括被中国和印度这样的国家孤立，它仍会坚持走到最后。

And I think probably not. I think that this war has gone so far that basically has its own logic. And so even if Russia as a country were completely isolated, including by countries like China and India, that it still would need to make its way to its conclusion.

这种观点是否正确：在很长一段时间里，俄罗斯和中国彼此视对方为平等的伙伴？

Is the view correct that for a very long time, and Russia saw each other sort of as equals?

嗯，我认为俄罗斯人比中国人更倾向于这种看法。但

Well, I think the Russians felt more that way than the Chinese. But

但现在从许多方面来看，包括石油供应、石油价格等关系，俄罗斯实际上已处于次要伙伴地位。

But now in so many ways, including the supply of oil, the price of oil, in that relationship, Russia is really the junior partner now.

我认为中国长期以来都将俄罗斯视为次要伙伴，但这种关系现在无疑更加明朗化了。

I think that the Chinese have regarded Russia as a junior partner for some time, but that relationship certainly has been clarified.

是啊。这对俄罗斯代价高昂，或者说我认为石油作为全球性商品总有买家，这其实不必过于担心？

Yeah. Yeah. And that's costly to Russia, or I should think it's oil, it's a global market, there's always someone who will buy your oil, that's not really something you worry about?

我认为他们确实对此感到担忧。他们无疑更希望中国在这场战争中保持中立，因此不愿改变现状。但如果迫不得已，他们很可能会采取行动。

I do think they're worried about it. I think they would prefer to have China neutral on this war, for sure. So they would rather not change that dynamic. But if they have to, then they probably will.

我确实还有一个经常思考的问题。鉴于过去发生的一切，你认为美国在地缘政治意义上的地位在过去一年左右发生了怎样的变化？

I do have one last question that is often on my mind. As a result of everything that has happened, how do you think the standing of The United States in a geopolitical sense has changed over the last year or so?

我认为情况好坏参半。美国从阿富汗的混乱撤军

I think it's mixed. So the chaotic withdrawal of The United States from Afghanistan

嗯。

Mhmm.

我认为这严重损害了美国在世界上的合法性，包括无人机袭击杀害了对撤军进程不构成威胁的平民等事件。而拜登政府在乌克兰战争期间展现的领导力则挽回了一部分这种合法性。所以总体而言，我们可能回到了原点，但我不认为过去一年美国霸权在世界上的合法性得到了显著恢复。

I think deeply undermined the legitimacy of The United States in the world, including the drone strikes that killed civilians who were not threats to the process of withdrawal and so on. And then I think the leadership that the Biden administration has showed during the course of the war in Ukraine has recovered some of that legitimacy. So maybe I would say on balance, we're kind of where we started, but I don't think we've had a great restoration of the legitimacy of American hegemony in the world over the last year.

是的。我某种程度上认同你的直觉，即起点确实很低。可以说除了上升别无选择。但我认为这一角色确实得到了某种强化。不过若将其称为近乎恢复，那就严重夸大其词了，毕竟发生了太多事情。

Yeah. I kinda share your instincts, which is in some sense that the bar was really low. You know, there was nowhere to go but up. But I do think there has been a fortification of that role. But to call it anything close to a restoration would be dramatically overstating the case because of so much that has happened.

但你说得对，这种看法确实不够乐观。但确实存在一个严肃的问题：美国在世界上究竟扮演着什么积极角色？嗯。是的。这点曾受到质疑。而我认为人们已经得出了结论——可能是勉强地、半心半意地——承认或许确实存在这样一个角色。

But you're right to say, I think, that that is not an optimistic way to think about it, but there was a serious question about what role does The US play Mhmm. That is positive in the world. Yep. And that was called into question. And I I think people have come to the conclusion, perhaps grudgingly and perhaps half heartedly, that, yeah, there maybe there is a role.

是的，这个角色很重要。不过拉维，在结束前我想最后问你一个问题。过去八个月里，我和菲利克斯思考了很多不同的事情。而作为研究这些问题的学者，你这八个月是亲历其中的。

Yeah. And it's an important role. But, Ravi, I wanna ask you one last question before we close. Felix and I get to think about a lot of different things over these last eight months. You've lived this for the last eight months as a scholar who thinks about these issues.

我很好奇这段经历对你产生了什么影响？它如何改变了你的世界观？又对你个人造成了怎样的冲击？

I'm curious what it's done to you and how it's changed your view of the world and how it's impacted you personally.

多年来我一直在思考，我们正以多种方式走向一个时代的终结。全球化时代的终结，美国领导世界时代的终结，整个体系正在经历某种转型。而这场战争及其后果确实加速了这种转型。我们正在进入一个截然不同的全球体系。尤其让我感到震撼的是，前一个时代的诸多元素——比如我投入大量时间精力研究的俄欧关系——竟以如此突兀的方式终结了。

I have been thinking for a number of years that we have been headed toward the end of an era in several ways. The end of an era of globalization, the end of an era in US leadership in the world, a sort of transformation of the system. And I really feel like this war and its consequences have accelerated that transformation. We are really moving into a very different kind of global system. And the ways in which elements of the previous era have ended so abruptly, especially on issues on which I've spent lots of time and energy and thought, the Russian European relationship.

嗯。

Mhmm.

说实话，这在智识层面令人非常迷失——暂且不谈那些我本人并未亲身经历的恐怖事件。眼看着旧秩序急速崩塌，而新秩序尚未成形，这种认知上的迷失感非常强烈。

It's quite disorienting, actually, in an intellectual sense, leaving aside the horrors of it Right. Which I'm not mostly experiencing, of course, myself. But it's very intellectually disorienting to be sprinting so quickly away from the way things were organized before and whatever's coming next.

非常感谢你分享这些真知灼见。和往常一样，能邀请你参与节目真是太棒了。

Well, thank you for sharing your thoughts and your insights. As always, it's just fabulous to have you on the show.

能和你们两位交流非常愉快。

Such a pleasure to be with you both.

我代表许多听众发言，我们需要你来描绘这个世界的蓝图。

I speak for many of our listeners, which is we need you to write that blueprint for what the world looks like.

所以精选者们，希望你们带来了能带给我们阳光、快乐以及生活中所有美好体验的东西。

So picks, I hope you brought something that will give us sunshine and happiness and all the good things we want to experience in life.

哦不，这不是我带来的东西。

Oh, no. That is not what I brought.

你完全误解了你的任务。一如既往。好吧，罗比，你先开始吧。

You totally misunderstood your assignment. As usual. Yeah. So Robbie, go first.

好的。HBO Max上有个新剧集叫《伊尔玛·薇普》，由法国知名导演奥利维耶·阿萨亚斯执导，非常有趣。1915到1916年间有部连载电影叫《吸血鬼》

Sure. So there's a new series on HBO Max. It is called Irma Vep. It is directed by Olivia Assaias, a French director of some note, and it is super interesting. So in 1915 and '16, there was a serialized film called Les Vampires

嗯。

Mhmm.

当时由路易·菲拉德执导，算是法国电影的开端。这是一部多部分的超长电影，它帮助了一位名叫慕西多拉的女演员开启职业生涯，她在剧中扮演了伊尔玛·薇普这个角色。《吸血鬼》其实与吸血鬼无关。

Directed at the time by Louis Foyad. It's sort of the beginning of French cinema. It was a kind of very long film in multiple parts. It helped to launch the career of a woman named Musidora, who was the actor who played a character named Irma Vep in this series. Les Vampires is not about vampires.

这部电影讲述了一个自称‘吸血鬼’的团伙。穆萨多尔是法国电影界的标志性人物，她曾先后担任演员、编剧、制片人和导演。这部作品是对原版系列电影的重制，但在拍摄过程中不断穿插1915至1916年原版系列中的场景。哇。它展现了参与这场非凡电影时刻的人们的生活。

It's about a gang that calls itself the vampires. And Musador is this iconic figure in French cinema who became after she was an actor, a writer, and a producer, and a director. And this is a kind of remake of the original serialized film, but it goes back and forth between the shooting of the remake, original scenes from the serialized version from 1915 and '16. Wow. And just the lives of the people who are taking part in this extraordinary cinematic moment.

影片充满了元叙事。故事发生在巴黎。是的。它非常非常有趣，表演精湛、剧本出色，有些部分还特别滑稽。花时间欣赏这部作品真是种启示。

It gets very meta. It's set in Paris. Yes. It's really, really interesting and well acted and well written, and there are parts of it that are also hilarious. But it's just been a kind of revelation to spend some time with it.

听起来太棒了。你知道的，费利克斯，拉维总是能拔高标准。没错。是那种严肃题材的作品。对。

Sounds fabulous. You know, Felix, Rawi always kind of raises the bar. Yep. Is, like, serious stuff. Yeah.

我在这儿推销各种薯片，人家却在谈论高级酱料。

I'm pushing, like, you know, different kinds of potato chips, and he's talking sauce.

好吧。那我们不如从吸血鬼话题转到薯片话题？所以

Alright. So why don't we go from vampires to potato chips? So

我有个雅俗共赏的推荐：你们当然都熟悉威廉·莎士比亚，但可能不太了解他的妻子安妮·海瑟薇。我被两种不同文化层面呈现的安妮形象深深吸引——高雅文化和通俗文化各有一种精彩演绎，它们都生动勾勒出这位女性的真实面貌。高雅版本是玛吉·奥法雷尔几年前出版的小说《哈姆内特》。

I have kind of a high low recommendation, which is you, of course, are familiar with William Shakespeare. You may be less familiar with his wife, Anne Hathaway. And I have been taken by two different versions of her that have shown up in high culture and low culture, which I think are both really fantastic. And they kind of really flesh out who this woman was. And so the high version is a book that came out a couple years ago, which is called Hamnet by Maggie O'Farrell.

没错。这本书以安娜·海瑟薇为核心，当然还有他们的儿子哈姆内特（这也是哈姆雷特名字的原型），这个男孩早夭的经历如何影响了莎士比亚及其婚姻。而通俗版本——虽然也不算太俗，其实相当出色——是音乐剧《与朱丽叶》，这部在伦敦演出一段时间后登陆纽约的作品重新诠释了《罗密欧与朱丽叶》，假设朱丽叶发现罗密欧死后没有自杀。基本情节就是安妮·海瑟薇夺过威廉·莎士比亚的笔质问：那个loser罗密欧都自杀了，她凭什么还要跟着殉情？

Yeah. It's And it really centers on Anna Hathaway and, of course, the son Hamnet, who is the original name for Hamlet as well, who died when he was a boy and how that impacted Shakespeare and their marriage. And then the low version of it, although it's not so low, it's pretty darn great, is and Juliet, which is a new musical that has come to New York, but has been in London for a while. That is a retelling of Romeo and Juliet as if Juliet did not kill herself after finding out that Romeo died. And it's basically Anne Hathaway takes the pen away from William Shakespeare and is like, why would she kill herself after that loser Romeo killed himself?

她将会过上美好的生活。而且恰好还有极棒的流行音乐。哦，所以这是对罗密欧与朱丽叶结局的音乐剧改编。但两者都以安妮·海瑟薇为核心，方式既古怪又有趣。

She would go on to have a great life. And it also happens to have just spectacular pop music. Oh. And so it's a musical retelling of the end of Romeo and Juliet. But they both center on Anne Hathaway in really weird and interesting ways.

我喜欢这些。这些都太棒了。

I love those. Those are great.

我注意到你现在对音乐剧很感兴趣。

I noticed you're gravitating towards musicals now.

嗯，已经看了几部。我超爱它们。是的，你知道的，我很容易着迷。太精彩了。

Well, it's been a couple. I love them. Yeah. You know, I'm a sucker. Fantastic.

Felix，你有什么推荐？

Felix, what do you have?

我也有个流行音乐推荐，但只是纯音乐。不过你知道的，就像...

I have a pop recommendation also, but it's just music. But by you know, as

我记得Felix，你对流行的定义可不是A妹那种。更像是巴西波尔卡排行榜冠军那种。你说的是这种流行吗？

I recall, Felix, your definition of pop is not Ariana Grande. It's like what is topping the polka charts in Brazil. Is that the kind of pop you're talking about?

不。这对你和其他许多人来说是个苦涩的失望，但很遗憾这张专辑的制作过程中没有用到大号。不过我有个夏日原声带。几乎每个夏天，我都会发现某段音乐，然后无限循环地听它，这段音乐就与那个夏天产生了关联。通常夏天结束后我就不再听了，但这次不一样。

No. It's a bitter disappointment to you and many others, but no tubas were involved in the making of this album, unfortunately. But I have sort of a soundtrack of the summer. Almost every summer, I discover some piece of music, and then I listen to it endlessly and sort of becomes associated with the summer. And then almost always after the summer is over, I stop listening to it, but not this time.

不知怎的，Grace Ives的这张专辑《Janky Star》一直陪伴着我。这是你能想象到最轻盈、最友善、最快乐的流行音乐。我记得她的第一个作品是一组她制作的手机铃声，现在主要还是她和她的合成器。不过现在加入了一些吉他，偶尔还会加入其他乐器。虽然是简单的流行乐，但丝毫不让人觉得乏味。

Somehow, this album by Grace Ives, Janky Star, stayed with me. And it's the lightest, friendliest, happiest pop music you can possibly imagine. Her very first, I think, work was a set of ringtones that she produced, and it's still mostly her and her synthesizer. But now they added some guitars, and they occasionally, they added some other instruments. Even though it's simple pop, it doesn't lose interest.

这些歌你一听就懂，可以跟着唱。歌词很怪。这是秋天的夏日原声带。

You know the songs. You can sing along. The texts are weird. It's summer soundtrack in the fall.

是的。我正在看这张专辑，看起来很棒。我会去听的。

Yeah. I'm looking at it right now. It looks great. I'll listen to it.

她解释说，她这个人很容易感到压力过大。她说自己受不了太长的歌曲，因为会让她难以承受。所以几乎所有的歌都很短，大概两分半钟左右。整张专辑有10首歌。

She is really easily overwhelmed as a person, she explains. And she says she can't really stand long songs because it just gets too much for her. So almost all the songs are really short. So there are maybe two and a half minutes or so. It's 10 songs.

我想整张专辑甚至不到半小时。正好适合2022年人们的平均注意力时长。

I think the whole album is not even half an hour. So it's something that's just right for the average attention span in 2022.

就是这样。

There you go.

嗯，我觉得这对刚听完我们讨论乌克兰严峻局势的听众来说再合适不过了。比如，给自己倒杯红酒，听听这首夏日原声带。

Well, I think that's perfect for our listeners who just finished listening to us talk about the dire scenarios in Ukraine. Like, pour yourself a glass of wine and listen to that soundtrack of the summer.

杰基·斯塔。没错。它的第一首曲目叫《难道不美好吗，菲利克斯？》。是的，听起来简直完美。

Jackie Star. Yeah. And its first track is called Isn't It Lovely, Felix? Yes. Which sounds just perfect.

完全正确。

Exactly right.

希望节目也能如此。今天就到这里。感谢大家的收听。这里是TED音频集锦的《下班之后》栏目。

I hope that's true for the show. This is it for today. Thank you everyone for listening. This was after hours from the TED Audio Collective.