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这里是iHeart播客《人类品质保证》。
This is an iHeart podcast, Guaranteed Human.
大家好，我是亚当·格兰特，《重新思考》播客的主持人。在这档节目中，我将与当今一些最杰出的思想家探讨他们看待世界的独特视角。
Hi, I'm Adam Grant, host of the podcast Rethinking, a show where I talk to some of today's greatest thinkers about the unconventional ways they see the world.
在《重新思考》中，您将收获来自科学家、领导者、艺术家等各界人士的惊人洞见。
On Rethinking, you'll get surprising insights from scientists, leaders, artists and more.
比如瑞茜·威瑟斯彭、马尔科姆·格拉德威尔和马友友这样的嘉宾。
People like Reese Witherspoon, Malcolm Gladwell and Yo Yo Ma.
聆听这些经验之谈，助您职场成功、改善人际关系，收获更多成长。
Hear lessons to help you find success at work, build better relationships and more.
在您常用的播客平台搜索《重新思考》即可订阅。
Find Rethinking wherever you get your podcasts.
普希金出品。
Pushkin.
我是莉迪亚·迪恩·科特。
I'm Lydia Dean Cott.
我是迈克尔·刘易斯。
I'm Michael Lewis.
惊喜的是，我们为《大空头》配套系列录制了一期额外节目。
And surprise, we're here for a extra episode of the Big Short companion series.
这是我们始料未及的。
One we weren't expecting.
没错。
That's right.
是啊。
Yeah.
因为我们成功邀请到了对冲基金经理迈克尔·伯里上节目。
Because we got the hedge fund manager, Michael Burry, to be on the podcast.
其实算不上是我们邀请他来的。
We didn't really get him to be on the podcast.
事情的经过很有趣。
It's funny what happened.
首先，我们应该介绍一下迈克尔·伯里是谁。
Well, first, we should say who Michael Burry is.
迈克尔·伯里是《大空头》书籍和电影中的三位主角之一，
Michael Burry is is one of the three main characters in both the book and
这部电影中的主要角色。
the movie of the Big Short.
对我来说他是个非常重要的角色。
And he was a really important character to me.
在电影中，他由克里斯蒂安·贝尔饰演。
And in the movie, he's played by Christian Bale.
在电影中，他由克里斯蒂安·贝尔饰演。
And in the movie, he's played by Christian Bale.
他从不接受采访，我们之前就邀请过他上播客，但他拒绝了。
He doesn't do interviews, and we've asked him to be on the podcast earlier, and he said no.
是啊。
So yeah.
那么发生了什么？
So what happened?
首先，他说，你知道，我愿意帮忙。
First, said, you know, I'd like to help.
然后他又说，我不愿意帮忙。
And then he said, I don't I wouldn't like to help.
后来发生的事情是他的交易活动被公开了，这是正常程序。
And then what happened was his trading activity got released to the public, which it does.
他必须向SEC提交13F表格，说明他的持仓情况。
He has to file a a 13 f form with the SEC saying what his positions are.
虽然这不能完全反映他的操作，但确实显示他做空了Palantir和Nvidia。
And as though it's not a perfect picture of what he's doing, it did say that he had put on big short positions against Palantir and Nvidia.
所以他是在赌AI泡沫会破裂。
So he was betting against the AI bubble.
他只是如实申报了自己的持仓情况。
All he did was file what his positions were.
他没有继续，他不接触媒体。
He didn't go on he doesn't do media.
他不接受采访，结果事情爆发了。
He doesn't do interviews, and it exploded.
就像，这事上了推特，上了CNBC。
Like, it was on Twitter, on CNBC.
人们既攻击他又赞扬他。
People were both attacking him and praising him.
而他不上播客的理由是他想保持低调。
And his reasoning for not coming on the podcast was he wanted to lay low.
结果他在推特上热搜挂了48小时。
And he was trending on Twitter for forty eight hours.
所以这就像，有什么意义呢？
So it like, what's the point?
是啊。
Yeah.
是啊。
Yeah.
他没法低调。
He can't lay low.
对啊。
Yeah.
就像他告诉我们的，他说，这种事只发生在我身上。
And as he tells us, he says, like, this only happens to me.
但我很高兴能邀请到他，因为我觉得我们之前缺少这样一个人物。
But I was really glad to have him on because I felt like we were missing somebody.
嗯。
Yeah.
不。
No.
我也是。
Same.
而且，因为人们一直在问，我收到了很多消息，比如‘你们会邀请迈克尔·伯里吗？’
And also, because people were asking I I was getting messages being like, are you guys gonna have Michael Burry?
还有一点很美好的是，那些不随便、不轻易与所有人交谈的受访者。
There's something also nice about subjects who don't just who aren't promiscuous, who just who don't just talk to everybody?
因为这让你觉得自己很特别？
Because it makes you feel special?
或者说，这让你觉得自己很特别。
Or It makes you feel special.
这让观众觉得自己很特别。
It makes it makes the audience feel special.
所以读者也会觉得自己很特别。
So and the reader feels special.
就像是，没错。
It's like Yeah.
这个故事是独一无二的。
Nobody else has this story.
我想让你解释的一点是，他是最早押注次贷危机的人之一。
And one thing I wanted you to explain is he was one of the first people one of the early people, right, to bet on the subprime mortgage crisis.
当他尝试这么做时，当时根本没有相应的金融工具来实现。
And when he was trying to do it, there weren't any financial instruments to do that.
对吧？
Right?
你必须找到一种方式，即使疯狂持续蔓延，你也不会迅速破产。
You had to it was it was how to do it in a way where if the madness just kept going and going, you weren't gonna be bankrupt quickly.
比如你可以在股市做空抵押贷款公司。
So you could have done things like bet against mortgage companies in the stock market.
你可以做空它们的股票。
You could have shorted their stock.
但你知道，这种赌注很难长期持有，所以你的时机必须把握得极其精准。
But, you know, that that's a it's a bet that's hard to hold for a long time, and so you have to your timing has to be exquisite.
他所做的本质上是发明——或者说让华尔街公司为他发明了次贷债券的信用违约互换，这本质上是对次级贷款支持债券的保险政策。
What he did was basically invent or have Wall Street firms invent for him the credit default swap on subprime mortgage bonds, which is essentially an insurance policy on bonds backed by subprime loans.
所以如果贷款违约，债券也违约，你就能从这份保险中获得赔付。
So if the loans go bad and the bonds go go bad, you get paid off on this insurance policy.
可以想象成我能给你的房子购买火灾保险。
Think of it like I get to buy insurance on your house and fire insurance.
如果房子烧毁了，我就能拿到赔偿。
And if it burns down, I get paid.
所以这事有点滑稽。
So there's something a little goofy about it.
我是说，过去这种做法非常奇怪。
I mean, there it used to be very oddly.
以前我甚至能给你买人寿保险。
It used to be that I could go buy life insurance on you.
如果你去世了，我就能拿到一大笔钱。
And if you died, I got paid a bunch of money.
这显然会形成非常恶劣的动机。
This obviously creates a very bad incentive.
谋杀。
Murder.
谋杀。
Murder.
是的。
Yes.
是的。
Yes.
没错。
Exactly.
但但你在金融市场可以这么做。
But but you can do this in the financial markets.
你可以购买他人债券的保险单。
You can buy insurance policies on other people's bonds.
如果债券出问题，你就能获得赔付。
And if it if they the bonds go bad, you get paid.
当迈克尔·巴里开始思考这种情况时，你无法为次级抵押贷款债券购买保险。
You couldn't when Michael Barry started to think about this situation, you couldn't buy an insurance policy on a subprime mortgage bond.
所以他不得不帮助华尔街为他创造这种产品。
So he had to go help Wall Street create it for him.
然后故事中的所有其他角色都在利用他创造的这种工具进行同样的赌注。
And then all the other characters in the story are then using that thing he creates to make the same bet.
关于迈克尔·巴里，你还有什么想说的吗？
Is there anything else you wanted to say related to Michael Berry?
我想说，关于他另一个有趣的地方是他如此向我敞开了他的生活。
I would say that the one other thing that's interesting about him is that he so let me into his life.
他通常真的不会这样做。
He just doesn't really do that usually.
这建立了一种亲密感。
It created a an intimacy.
就像，我真的了解了他，并且非常享受听他讲述他的想法。
Like, I just really got to know him and really enjoyed, like, just hearing what he had to say.
比如，我就是从他那里学到了很多东西。
Like, I just learned stuff from him.
即使他在大家赚钱的地方没赚到钱，听听他的想法，把这些想法当作你思维中的一部分，真的很有趣。
Even when he doesn't make money on what everybody's making, it's really interesting to hear what he's thinking and just, like, have that as part of the furniture in your mind.
迈克尔·刘易斯与迈克尔·巴里的对话即将开始。
Michael Lewis' conversation with Michael Barry is coming up.
这确实是一堂非常有趣的课。
It really is a very fun lesson.
我还记得你把你所有的邮件交给我，你多年来整个交易生涯都是通过邮件与世界沟通的，积累了成千上万封。
I still remember you handing me your emails, and, like, you had, like, thousands of you had communicated with the world your whole trading life for years through email.
所以这是对你想法、华尔街对你想法的反应以及市场变化的实时记录。
And so it was a real time account of your thoughts, of Wall Street's response to your thoughts, of how the market moved.
这具有难以置信的价值。
It was unbelievably valuable.
这与大家事后回忆的情况完全不同。
It was so different from, like, everybody reminiscing.
你还记得那件事吗？
Do you remember that?
我记得。
I remember that.
而那些邮件，我认为是让我没有被投资者起诉的主要原因。
And those emails, I think, were the main reason I didn't get sued by my investors.
因为如果我擅长演讲或喜欢召开电话会议，我本会与投资者进行电话会议。
Because if I had been a skilled orator or somebody who loved giving conference calls, I would have done conference calls with my investors.
那样的话可能就不会有记录，但我这里有与所有人的邮件往来记录。
And then maybe they wouldn't have been recorded, but here I had emails with everybody on everything.
因此，我们与每个人的立场都非常明确。
And so it was very clear where we stood with everybody.
对我来说，人们以不同的方式得出正确答案。
You were like, for me, people came to the right answer in different ways.
而你得出正确答案的方式令人非常满意，因为你不仅看到了次级抵押贷款市场的不负责任行为，还对其何时会崩溃有了一套理论。
And you came to the right answer in such a satisfying way, because not only did you see the irresponsibilities in the subprime mortgage market, but you actually had a theory about the timing of it when it was all going to come unraveled.
这些头寸的问题在于，当你发现X或Y领域存在大量疯狂现象时，虽然你的判断可能是正确的，但市场可能长期与你的预期相悖，最终迫使你平仓离场。
And the problem with these positions, with, oh, there's a lot of insanity in X or Y, is that, yeah, you can be right, but you can be wrong for long enough that the market just takes you out of your positions.
我认为确实如此。
I think that's right.
这就是为什么这被称为'大空头'。
This is why this is the big short.
这是百年一遇的机会，能够准确断言危机爆发的时间点。
It's the once in a century opportunity to actually say, I know when this is gonna happen.
没错。
Right.
你知道，我曾将其与1990年代的泡沫相比较，但事实上当时根本无法预测泡沫何时破灭。
You know, I've compared this to the the 1990s bubble, and the reality is there was no telling when that would end.
对。
Right.
在大多数类似情况下，你很难把握时机，做空操作只是高风险尝试。
In most situations like this, you there's no good way to time it, and shorting it is just a high risk endeavor.
我们今天要讨论的内容，但我想先回顾一下《大空头》
What we're gonna get to today, but I want to just revisit The Big
稍微提一下。
Short just a little bit.
我很好奇它对你的人生产生了什么影响。
And I'm curious what effect it had on your life.
我是说，先是那笔交易，然后是书，接着是电影。
I mean, there was the trade, there was the book, and then there was the movie.
你确实让克里斯蒂安·贝尔来和你待了一天。
You did let Christian Bale come and hang with you for a day.
但你对整件事表现得异常淡定。
But you were remarkably chill about the whole thing.
我觉得我好像从未真正和你复盘过，这件事对你产生了什么影响——如果有的话。
And I don't think I've ever felt like I've really recapped with you, like, what effect this thing had on you, if any.
我认为
I think
我不知道你是对的。
I didn't know you're right.
我是说，我有自闭症谱系障碍，所以我很擅长沉浸在自己的世界里，也很擅长屏蔽外界事物。
I mean, I'm on the autism spectrum, so I'm pretty good in my own head, and I'm pretty good at blocking out stuff.
就连这部电影，我也只是在首映式上看过一次。
And so even this movie, I saw it at the premiere.
从那以后我就再没看过。
I haven't watched it since.
那本书出版时我读过一次，之后就再没读过。
The book, I read it when it came out, and I haven't read it since.
这就是我的感受
That's how I felt
关于这件事。
about it.
我们只是 是的。
We just Yes.
我只是继续前行。
I just move on.
所以就顺其自然地接受了。
And so kind of took it as it came.
我去参加首映是因为我全家都想去看首映。
I went to the premiere because my whole my family wanted to go to the premiere.
而且，你知道的，我不接受采访是因为我觉得自己不擅长这个，所以我想自从《60分钟》那次访谈后，我就再没跟任何人聊过这些。
And I, you know, as you know, I don't do interviews because I don't feel I'm good at this, and so I, you know, haven't done one, I think, since, like, I haven't talked to anybody since, I think, the sixty Minutes interview.
关于《大空头》吗？
About The Big Short?
以采访的形式谈论这个。
About this in an interview format.
现在电影十周年了，书出版十五周年了，是啊，真不敢相信已经过去这么久了，但我只是继续做自己的事，这些其实对我影响不大。
Now it's the tenth anniversary of the film, fifteenth anniversary of the book, and yeah, I can't believe it's been that long, but I just kind of go on and do my thing, it doesn't really affect me too much.
你是否觉得自己被推上了预言家的位置，突然之间人们都期待你预测下一件大事？
Do you feel it put you in the position of Oracle, that all of a sudden people are expecting you to predict the next thing?
正如我们提到的，那是一个非常独特的情况。
It was, as we mentioned, it is a very unique circumstance.
那是百年一遇的交易机会。
It was a once in a century type trade.
人们常说百年一遇的洪水，百年一遇的那个，其实并不准确。
People say once in a century flood, once in a century this, once in and it's not really true.
这种事每十年就会发生一次。
It happens every ten years.
但那次机会确实非常独特，我后来一直告诉大家短期内不会再出现类似情况了。
But this was that opportunity was very unique, and I've basically told everybody I can ever since that that's not going to happen again anytime soon.
它独特在什么地方？
What made it unique?
简单来说，我当时被允许为这些流动性极差的债券购买保险，并且可以在不持有被保险标的的情况下通过交易获利，而且成本非常低。
Well, I was basically permitted to buy insurance on these bonds that were incredibly illiquid, and I was permitted to basically buy insurance and then trade and profit off them without actually having the insured item, and it this was not expensive.
当时没人想到会发生这种事。
Nobody thought this could happen.
对。
Right.
我在2005年底前已经建立了大量仓位，然后接到了高盛的电话问我：‘你在做什么？’
I'd put on a lot of my position by late two thousand five, and I got a call from Goldman Sachs saying, What are you doing?
‘你是我们认识的唯一一个不是抵押贷款基金的人。’
You're the only person we know you're not a mortgage fund.
‘你不是在对冲。’
You're not hedging.
‘你在做不同的事情。’
You're doing something different.
这不是人们普遍意识到的事情，但我意识到了。
It's not something that people were generally aware of, and I was.
所以我能够顺利入场并成功完成这笔交易。
And so I could kind of walk in and basically pull the caper off.
关于你在《大空头》故事结尾部分，我想谈三点，然后我们再来讨论现状。
There are three things I want to talk about at the back end of your story in The Big Short, and then I want to move on to the present.
但首先是，你取得了这场惊人的胜利，你的投资者赚了很多钱，而你最终却关闭了基金。
But the first is you have this terrific win, your investors make a lot of money, and you end up closing your fund.
你能提醒我为什么关闭你的基金吗？
Can you remind me why you closed your fund?
我的投资者普遍对我很生气，即使事情进展顺利时他们也对我很恼火。
My investors were generally mad at me, and they were generally mad at me even when things went well.
当时我觉得自己与任何人都没有建立良好的关系。
And I didn't feel at the time I had goodwill with anybody.
我那时只有一个投资者。
I didn't there was only one investor.
我不该说出他的名字，但我很感激他。
I shouldn't say his name, but love him.
他是唯一一个在后期还投资给我的人。
He is the only guy that invested with me late.
在那最后一年半左右的时间里，没有人来找我。
That last year and a half or so, nobody came to me.
没有人愿意投资我。
Nobody wanted to invest with me.
甚至在我们赚到钱后，他们还是说'呼，我们不想再经历那种事了'。
And even when we made the money, it was, whew, we don't want to go through that again.
在出书后、电影上映后、在他们拿回本金并获得丰厚回报后，可曾有人打电话向你道歉过吗？
Did anybody ever call after the book, after the movie, after they got their money back and a lot more, did anybody ever call you to apologize?
没有。
No.
不，不，不。
No, no, no.
这真是有点不可思议
It's kind of an amazing
我对此并不抱期待。
I didn't expect that.
我明白
I know
你没想到会这样。
you didn't expect it.
但某种程度上，当事情冷却下来，他们看着自己的收益时，我以为会有人打电话来说，你知道的，抱歉我当时对你做这笔交易那么生气。
But this sort of like, at some point when there was cooling off and they looked at their winnings, I would have thought someone would have called and said, You know, sorry I got so angry at you for doing this trade.
不，没有人这样做过。
No, nobody did.
好吧。
Okay.
我也没指望他们会。
And I didn't expect it.
这就是华尔街的作风。
It's it's Wall Street.
你什么时候重新开业的？
When did you reopen?
2013年。
2013.
从那以后，你做得怎么样？
And since then, how have you done?
还不错。
Done alright.
我觉得从那以后一切都没变。
I think it's all been the same since.
我记得当我重新开业时，我不想要我不认识的投资者。
So I remember when I opened again, I didn't want investors I didn't know.
是的。
Yeah.
我不想超过SEC注册投资顾问的门槛。
I didn't want to be above the SEC threshold for registering for as an investment adviser.
我想保持小规模。
I wanted to keep it small.
所以我只找了认识的人和自己的部分资金，我们成立了一个基金。
So I just went to people I knew and some of my own money, and we created a fund.
当时的情况是，如果我愿意，本可以筹集数十亿资金，但那并非我的本意。
It was probably a situation where if I wanted to, I could have raised billions, but that wasn't my intention.
但你并不想
But you didn't want to
重蹈覆辙。
relive the experience you'd already had.
我不想和华尔街打交道。
I didn't want to deal with Wall Street.
我不想应付那类投资者。
I didn't want to deal with those kinds of investors.
我从上次经历中清楚知道哪些是优质投资者，我只想和这些人合作。
I knew who my good investors were from the prior time, and those were the only people I wanted to deal with.
没错。
Right.
所以这只是个小规模运作，我一直试图保持精简，也没有真正进行市场推广。
And so it was a it just was a small operation, and I kept trying to keep it small, and I didn't really market it.
除了最初那批人之外，我完全没有进行任何营销。
I didn't market it at all other than just that first group.
而随之发生的情况是，那些2000年就跟随我的个人医生等投资者，他们逐渐年迈。
And what happens with that is that some of those people that were with me in 2,000, individual doctors or whatever, they get old.
有些人甚至已经离世。
They actually pass away.
最终，投资人群体自然减员，这让我们始终保持小规模。
Ultimately, it just became something there was a natural attrition in the pool, and so it kept us small.
我并没有特别关注这些。
I have not paid that close attention.
我只是偶尔在推特上看到关于你的爆炸性新闻。
All I see is every now and then there's some explosion on Twitter about you.
而且都是错误的。
And And it's wrong.
每一个，他们全都搞错了。
Every they they they they're all wrong.
我们要短暂休息一下
We're gonna take a quick break.
回来后，我将询问迈克尔·伯里为何近期做空两家大型科技股Palantir和英伟达
And when we return, I ask Michael Burry about why he placed bets recently against two large tech stocks, Palantir and Nvidia.
大家好，我是亚当·格兰特，播客《重新思考》的主持人。在这档节目中，我将与当代最杰出的思想家探讨他们看待世界的独特视角
Hi, I'm Adam Grant, host of the podcast Rethinking, a show where I talk to some of today's greatest thinkers about the unconventional ways they see the world.
在《重新思考》中，您将收获来自科学家、领导者、艺术家等嘉宾的惊人洞见
On Rethinking, you'll get surprising insights from scientists, leaders, artists, and more.
像瑞茜·威瑟斯彭、马尔科姆·格拉德威尔和马友友这样的人。
People like Reese Witherspoon, Malcolm Gladwell, and Yo Yo Ma.
聆听这些课程，帮助你在工作中取得成功，建立更好的人际关系等等。
Hear lessons to help you find success at work, build better relationships, and more.
在您获取播客的任何地方收听《重新思考》。
Find rethinking wherever you get your podcasts.
那我们谈谈这个吧。
So let's talk about this.
给我解释一下。
Explain to me.
你运营的这个项目规模很小，只有少数几位投资者。
You have this very small operation with just a handful of investors.
申报要求是什么？
What are the filing requirements?
你需要提交哪些材料，好让人们了解你的操作？
What do you have to hand in so that people can see what you're doing?
他们能看到美国。
They get to see U.
证券。
S.
在美国交易的。
Securities traded in The U.
证券。
S.
那些是股票。
That are stocks.
他们能看到股票，以及一个被极度简化的期权版本。
They get to see stocks, and they get an incredibly bastardized version of what of options.
好的。
Okay.
那么它是怎么被简化的呢？
And how is it how is it bastardized?
因为假设我买入5万份Palantir的看跌期权，那就是5万乘以100，所以我做空，执行价50远低于市价。
Because say I buy 50,000 put options on Palantir, and that's 50,000 times a 100, and so I'm short, strike 50 way out of the money.
现在股价大概是200美元。
It's like a it's $200 stock now.
但我认为它只值30美元或更低。
Struck but I think it's worth 30 or less.
所以我买的是两年后远低于市价的期权。
So I I buy them way out of the money two years out.
你在赌股价会大幅下跌。
You're betting the ponte is gonna drop by a lot.
两年内大幅下跌。
A lot in two years.
但经过很长一段时间。
But over a long period of time.
对。
Right.
媒体上说我正在做空Palantirir，我在CNBC上看到，我有十亿美元的空头头寸。
And the press I'm working out, I see on CNBC, I have a billion dollar short position against Palantir.
我看到这个数字是1000万美元。
It's $10,000,000 I saw this too.
我简直不敢相信。
I couldn't believe it.
所以他们所做的就是拿那些期权合约对应的标的股票，然后用当前股价来计算总价值。
So what they do is they take the underlying shares under those options contracts, and they they multiply it out by the current stock price.
对。
Yep.
所以我们其实...我持有的是一份不到2美元的期权，却被按200美元的价格计算，整整差了两个数量级。
So we're so I have a I have a actually, it was less than $2 option, and it was being priced as if I owned the 200 so it's two orders of magnitude off.
没错。
Right.
指数期权也会出现这种情况。
And that happens also with index.
所以我在投资组合中做对冲时，人们就会惊呼天哪。
So so I would take hedges on my portfolio, and people would say, oh my gosh.
他居然做空15亿标普500指数！这些报道总是夸大其词。
He's shorting a billion and a half of the S and P 500 or he's shorting and there would be these explosions.
这完全是错误的。
And and it's just wrong.
那只是名义价值。
It's notional.
有趣的是他们不会对其他人这样做。
What's interesting is that they don't do this for anybody else.
也许你应该多接受些采访。
So maybe you should give more interviews.
我问过你《大空头》对你生活的影响。
I asked you what effect the Big Short had on your life.
这就是《大空头》对你生活的影响。
This is an effect the Big Short had on your life.
在合规方面，自金融危机后，一切都变了。
In compliance, in my compliance, since the financial crisis, everything changed.
在合规部，我们公司内部有位合规官，他总说：别跟任何人交谈。
In compliance, we have a compliance officer inside the firm, and he just keeps saying, Don't talk to anybody.
别跟任何人交谈。
Don't talk to anybody.
别回应任何人。
Don't respond to anybody.
不要回应任何人。
Don't respond to anybody.
所以我认为自从电影上映后，这种情况真正开始发生，我内心逐渐积累了一种想要说些什么的挫败感。
And so I think since the movie came out and this really started happening, there was a frustration building in me to want to say something.
是的。
Yeah.
而我却不能。
And I couldn't.
所以当新冠疫情来临时，我对此有些强烈的感受，于是上了推特。
And so when COVID came about, I had some strong feelings on that, so I went on Twitter.
但我只能谈论与股票无关的事情，这也没关系。
But I was only allowed to talk about things that weren't stocks, and so that's fine.
我是说但我不得不谈论社会问题。
I mean but I had to talk about social things.
没错。
Right.
我因此惹上了麻烦，因为大家都会因此惹上麻烦。
And I got in trouble with that because everybody gets in trouble with that.
所以我退出了推特。
So so I got off Twitter.
但你又回来了。
But you got back on.
我最近回来了，因为我们注销了。
I got back on recently because we deregistered.
我不再管理那笔资金池了。
I don't run that pool of money anymore.
我只打算管理自己的钱。
I'm just gonna run my own money.
明白了。
Got you.
所以现在只是你自己的钱了。
So it's just your money now.
基本上是这样。
So Mostly.
是的。
Yeah.
你为什么决定这么做？
Why did you decide to do that?
我认为我们在股市中处境不佳。
I think that we're in a bad situation in the stock market.
我认为股市可能会经历几年的低迷期。
I think the stock market could be in for a number of bad years.
而且我认为这次熊市可能会持续更久，更像2000年那次。
And I think it could be a longer bear market, more akin to 2000.
但行业结构已经发生了变化。
But the structure of the industry has changed.
那时候主要是对冲基金、共同基金和独立账户业务。
Back then, it was hedge funds, mutual funds, separate accounts businesses.
但当时有人管理资金池，思考股票并进行股票投资。
But there were people running pools of money and thinking about stocks and investing in stocks.
所以我觉得自己并不知道自己属于自闭症谱系。
And so I felt I didn't know I was on the autism spectrum.
我怀有一种希望，认为自己在这方面有足够的优势。
I felt the hope that I had enough edge there.
我可以某种程度上置身于所有这些人类心理之外，理清头绪，这方法很有效。
I could I'm kinda sit outside of all these human psyches and, like, and figure things out, and it worked well.
如今，全都是被动资金，而且占比很大——超过50%是被动资金。
Today, it's all passive money, and it's a lot it's over 50% passive money.
有指数基金。
There's Index funds.
据一些人说，不到10%的资金是由真正思考股票并以某种长期方式进行主动管理的经理人运作的。
Less than 10% of money, some say, is actively managed by managers who are actually thinking about the stocks and in any kind of way that's long term.
因此问题在于，我认为在美国，当市场下跌时，不会像2000年那样还有一批被忽视的股票，即使纳斯达克崩盘它们也能上涨。
And so the problem is in The United States, I think when the market goes down, it's not like in 2000 where there was this other bunch of stocks that were being ignored, and they'll come up even if the Nasdaq crashes.
现在我觉得整个市场都会下跌。
Now I think the whole thing's just gonna come down.
在美国，做多股票并保护自己将变得非常困难。
And you it will be very hard to be in a long stocks in The United States and protect yourself.
所以这就是我决定退出的原因。
And so that's why I decided to get out of it.
因为基金必须
Because the fund had
以某种方式做多？
to be long in some way?
嗯，我不想再和投资者经历那种事了。
Well, I didn't want to go through that with investors again.
我明白了。
I see.
这很合理。
And and That makes sense.
当然，我关闭了基金，并立即为自己建立了所有仓位。
Of course, I closed the fund, and I put on all the positions for myself right away.
同样的仓位。
The same position.
所以你仍然持有
So you're still in
这个仓位。
the position.
我想谈谈这个仓位。
So I want to talk about this position.
我又发现了它，一直在远处观察。
I found it again, I was watching it from a distance.
但告诉我我错过了什么。
But tell me what I missed.
有人，比如CNBC或其他机构，拿到了你的13F文件。
Someone, CNBC or whoever, gets a hold of your 13 F.
在这份13F文件上，显示你的惩罚性头寸特别大。
On this 13F, says your penalty position is especially big.
看起来很大是因为这些看跌期权远远处于虚值状态。
It looks big because the put options are way, way out of the money.
它们的执行价是50。
They were struck at 50.
所以，好吧，你不得不公布关于你基金的这些信息。
So, okay, you had to release this information about your fund.
你并没有以任何异常方式向全世界宣传它。
You weren't advertising it to the world in any unusual way.
你也没有到处说Palantir的坏话。
You weren't going out and talking trash about Palantir.
这个头寸被公开了。
This position gets released.
然后接下来我看到的是，Palantir的负责人Alex Karp因为你持有他们股票的看跌期权而对你穷追不舍。
And then the next thing I do, I see Alex Karp, who runs Palantir, going after you for owning puts on his stock.
我认为，在金融危机期间，你会记得当时摩根士丹利的负责人约翰·马克将发生在他身上的事归咎于做空者。
And I don't think I mean, during the financial crisis, you will remember that the head of Morgan Stanley at the time, John Max, he blamed short sellers for what was happening to him.
他们非常短暂地禁止了对这些股票的做空交易。
They banned short selling of the stocks very, I think, briefly.
但当人们开始针对
But it's always a really bad sign when people start going after
做空者时，这总是一个非常糟糕的信号。
the short sellers.
在美国。
In The United States.
在美国。
In The United States.
我当时在想，天啊，我可不想处在你的位置。
And I was thinking, Oh my God, I just wouldn't want to be in your shoes.
你只是做了一笔交易。
You just made a trade.
但他激怒了我。
But he's provoked me.
我想了解你的交易策略。
I want to understand your trade.
这是在押注Palantir股价会大幅下跌。
It's a bet that Palantir goes way, way down.
两年内会暴跌。
Way, way down in two years.
你对他们的业务有什么市场尚未察觉的洞见？
What do you understand about their business that the market doesn't?
我认为这家公司的应用系统安装成本极高，因为你购买软件后还得雇佣他们的顾问来安装和学习使用。
So my belief is that this is a company that had a set of applications that were very expensive to install because you had to hire their consultants, like, after you bought the software just to install it and learn it.
对吧？
Right?
而且Palantir在政府部门享有盛誉。
And Palantir had this reputation in government.
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政府合同是个肮脏的生意。
Government contracts is a nasty business.
我认为他们已经摸索出方法并拿到了一些合同。
I think they've figured out how to do it and and get some contracts.
他们的收入有多少来自政府合同？
How how much of their revenue is government contracts?
这部分已经大幅减少了。
It's fallen off a lot.
以前几乎占多数，现在差不多持平了。
It was it was almost it was a majority, and now it's, like, more even.
好的。
Okay.
因为在这次AI建设热潮中，他们基本上把自己推销给了企业。
Because it during this AI build out, they basically marketed themselves to corporations.
嗯，是企业主动找上他们的。
Well, corporations have come to them.
每家上市公司的C级高管们——包括董事会成员和CEO们——都感到被AI浪潮逼得喘不过气来。
C suites of every public corporation have board members, CEOs who feel under the gun to AI something.
是啊。
Yeah.
没错。
Yep.
所以现在大家都在抢着行动。
And so there's this scramble.
我一直说他们是唯一这么做的，但IBM基本上也在做同样的事情。
And now they're not the only I keep saying they're the only ones, but IBM has does basically the same thing.
他们的业务规模实际上比Palantir还大，而且并不完全依赖政府。
Their business is actually bigger than Palantir's, and they are not really all government.
政府合同通常利润并不高。
Government contracts are not generally that profitable.
所以你看，IBM内部其实有很好的业务，尽管增长也很快，却没能像Palantir那样获得相应的估值认可。
And so, you know, IBM's got a really good business inside it, but it doesn't get the credit for a Palantir valuation on that business, even though it is growing fast too.
它的增长速度与Palantir相当或曾经相当。
It's growing about as fast as Palantir or was.
让我这么说吧。
And so let me put it this way.
我认为有五位亿万富翁来自Palantir，因为他们持有Palantir的股票，而公司收入是40亿美元或更少，基本上是40亿美元。所以亿万富翁与收入的比例大于一，这是我从未见过的。
There are, I think, five billionaires that came out of Palantir because they own Palantir's stock, and the revenue was $4,000,000,000 or less, basically $4,000,000,000 So the billionaires to revenue ratio was greater than one, and I'd never seen that before.
这就是最初吸引你注意力的原因吗？
Was that what attracted your attention in the first place?
嗯，
Well,
这有点意思。
that's a cute little thing.
我当时就想，哇，他们是怎么从那个团队里培养出五位亿万富翁的？
I was like, wow, how do they get five billionaires out of that group?
所以一家收入40亿美元的公司，实际上基于股票的薪酬几乎会消耗他们所有的利润。
So at a company that has $4,000,000,000 in revenue, and actually stock based compensation basically would have wasted almost all their income.
他们必须用大量股票支付那些做咨询工作的员工，所以干脆采用股权补偿。
They have to pay their people who are doing all this consulting so much in stock that they just use stock based compensation.
然后他们会回购那些股票。
Then what they do is they buy that back.
公司希望你们只给他们信用，华尔街通常的做法是取每股收益，再把股权补偿加回去，因为这是非现金支出。
And the company would like you to just give them credit for and what Wall Street generally does is they take the earnings per share, and then they add back the stock based compensation because it's noncash.
他们把这部分加回到收益中。
And they add it back to the earnings.
我认为实际上，GAAP对股权补偿的会计处理比实际成本要偏低。
And I think, actually, the way GAAP accounts for stock based compensation skews low versus what it actually costs.
真实成本可以通过观察公司回购多少股票来抵消稀释，你可以直接从现金流中扣除这个金额。
The real cost, you can look at the how much our company's buying back to offset that dilution, and you can just take that amount and deduct it from cash flow.
所以如果你用这种方法看Palantir的历史数据，他们根本没赚到钱。
So if you do that with Palantir, historically, they don't make anything.
所以我基本上评估这家公司时说：你们值这么多钱，但实际上几乎没赚到什么钱，营收微乎其微，却造就了这么多亿万富翁。
So I basically looked at the company and said, you're you're worth this much, and you're really don't make anything of its tiny little bit of revenue, and you have all these billionaires.
你在2008年曾提出过关于次级抵押贷款债券市场何时开始崩溃、人们何时开始违约的论点。
You had an argument back in 2008 for when the subprime mortgage bond market was going to start to unravel, when people were going to start to default.
你现在对Palantir有时机上的论点吗？
Do you have a timing argument for now with Palantir?
嗯，我认为这个AI是
Well, I think this AI is
咨询业务。
consulting thing.
所以Palantir和NVIDIA是地球上最幸运的两家公司。
So Palantir and NVIDIA are the two luckiest companies on the planet.
它们都没有为AI生产产品。
Neither produced a product for AI.
没有。
No.
我知道。
I know.
但它们却是AI领域的两大标杆企业。
But they're the two poster children for AI.
是的。
Yes.
英伟达曾是一家计算机图形芯片公司。
NVIDIA was a computer graphics chip company.
英伟达生产的是计算机图形芯片。
NVIDIA was a computer graphics chip.
我其实认识他们的首席财务官。
I actually knew the CFO.
我们在2015或2016年交谈过。
We talked in 2015 or '16.
我做多了这只股票，然后我说，嘿。
I went long the stock, and I and I said, hey.
你们干得很出色。
You're doing a great job.
我很欣赏你们回购股票的做法。
I love how you're buying back stock.
她的孩子曾和我家孩子在同一支篮球队。
Her kids was on my kids' basketball team.
我记得我是在一两年后买的这支股票。
I think I bought the stock, like, a year or two later.
当时股价从20涨到了90，按现在分股后的价格算大约是40美分。
The stock was up to, like it went from 20 to 90 at the time, which is, like, 40¢ now, but after the splits.
英伟达很幸运。
NVIDIA was lucky.
他们曾在加密货币挖矿热潮中走运，因为挖矿需要GPU，而当时并没有专门为挖矿定制的GPU。
They got lucky once with the crypto mining because crypto mining needed GPU GPUs were the they weren't custom for g for crypto mining.
它们恰好是现成可用的设备。
They were just the thing that was there that could be used.
后来人工智能兴起，情况如出一辙。
And then AI came along, and it's the same deal.
大约一年半到两年前，Palantir还不是一家人工智能公司。
About a year and a half ago a year and a half to two years ago, Palantir was not an AI company.
基本上，当ChatGPT问世后，他们给自己正在销售的应用程序套了层AI外壳，然后推销各种咨询服务，就称之为人工智能。
Basically, when ChatGPD came out, they basically put an AI cover on their applications that were that they were selling and then selling all this consulting on, and they call it AI.
但现在每家公司都在这么做。
But that's what every company is doing now.
那么人工智能是否存在时机选择的争论呢？
But is there a timing argument for AI then?
是的。
Yeah.
这就引出了这个泡沫到底是什么样子的问题。
So this gets to what does this bubble look like?
这个泡沫看起来非常像互联网泡沫，其实又不完全是互联网泡沫。
This bubble looks an awful lot like the .com bubble, which is not really a .com bubble.
那是个数据传输泡沫。
It was a data transmission bubble.
那是光纤的大规模建设，大量光纤需要路由器，路由器又需要光纤，就这样爆发式增长。
It was a huge build out of fiber and a huge fiber needed routers, and routers needed fiber, it just blew up.
所以市场顶峰出现在2000年3月10日。
So the market peak was in 03/10/2000.
思科在2000年营收增长了55%，2001年仍增长了17%，因为投资仍在继续。
Cisco grew 55% that year, revenues, in 2000, and it grew 17% in 2001 because the investment continued.
实际上在市场见顶后还持续增长了约一年才达到峰值。
It actually peaked for about a year after the top in the market.
因此你可以观察净投资，也就是资本支出减去折旧。
And so what you can do is you can look at net investment, which is capital expenditures less depreciation Alright.
随着时间的推移，你可以将其与名义GDP进行对比，以便跨时代比较。
Over time, and you can put it against GDP to kind of a nominal GDP to to compare it across eras.
这样就能看到投资热潮形成的明显峰值。
And you get these nice mounds of of investment manias.
而每次历史热潮中，相关股市见顶时，资本支出甚至还没完成过半。
And what you see in every prior one was the the relevant stock market peak was before you were even halfway done with the the capital expenditure.
在大多数情况下，资本支出甚至尚未达到峰值。
In the majority of cases, the capital expenditure hadn't even peaked yet.
所以现在，我们正在增加资本支出，而实际情况是，我们已经进入这样一个阶段：如果你宣布在AI领域投入一美元的资本支出，你的市值就会相应增加三美元。
And so right now, we're we're ramping up for capital expenditure, and and and what's happened is we've gotten into this part of a phase where if you announce a dollar of CapEx on AI, your market cap will go up $3 for every dollar you add.
甲骨文公司，我们在甲骨文身上就看到了这种情况。
Oracle, we saw that with Oracle.
这家巨头公司的股价上涨了40%。
Giant company was up 40%.
简直难以置信。
Like, incredible.
拉里·埃里森曾短暂成为世界首富，因为他们宣布了这项规模高达数千亿美元的基础设施支出计划——虽然他们当时公布的是订单量，但这些钱终究是要花出去的。
Larry Ellison was briefly the richest man because they announced this massive, multi 100 billions of dollars of basically spending that they would have to well, they announced bookings, but they would have to spend.
他们仍在建设当中。
They're still building it out.
那我们现在处于什么阶段？
Where are we then?
我无法断言，因为事情尚未完全显现。
I can't say because it hasn't happened fully yet.
我们正处于历史峰值水平。
We are at levels of prior peaks.
我们达到了页岩革命相对于GDP的规模水平。
We're at the level of the Shale Revolution relative to GDP.
我们接近互联网泡沫时期纳斯达克见顶时的水平。
We're at the level near the level of the .com where the when the .com the Nasdaq peaked.
所以你觉得两年期看跌期权就足够了？
So you felt two year two year puts were enough?
我认为两年时间应该足够。
I thought two years would be enough.
是的。
Yes.
我觉得两年时间足够了。
I think two years would be enough.
我认为，如果你现在要买点什么，就买医疗保健类股票吧，它们现在真的很不受青睐。
I think, you know, if you're gonna buy something now, buy health care stocks, they're really out of favor.
如果你持有的某只股票已经涨了很多，你确实从中赚了不少，它正在直线飙升，而你觉得它有点估值过高，我认为你应该考虑卖出。
If you own something that has been gone up a lot, you've done really, really well in it, it's on a it's shooting straight up, and and you know it's think it's kind of overvalued, you should I think that's something you should sell.
我想再问你一个关于股市的奇怪问题，就是你持有伯克希尔哈撒韦的股票，而伯克希尔刚刚宣布——确切地说是被披露——它买入了大量谷歌股票。
I wanna ask you one weird question more question about the stock market, and that is you own Berkshire Hathaway, and Berkshire Hathaway just announced we just it was revealed that it bought a big chunk of Google stock.
这让你失望吗？还是说你理解他们的思路？
Did that disappoint you, or do you see how they're thinking?
首先，我们不确定这是巴菲特买的。
We don't know that that is Buffett that bought it, one.
没错。
Right.
其次，谷歌是那个板块中价值投资者最青睐的股票。
Two, Google is the value investor's favorite in that group.
它是那种人人都说'它比其他股票都便宜'的公司。
It's the one that everybody said, well, it's cheaper than all the others.
它具有相对价值，而且它是谷歌。
It's got it's got relative value, and it is Google.
但我知道自从有了ChatGPT和Claude后，我就不用谷歌了。
But I know that since I got ChatGPT and Claude, I don't use Google.
而谷歌搜索的神奇之处在于它的成本极低，因为大部分请求都无法变现。
And Google Search, the magic thing about Google Search was how little it cost because most requests were not monetizable.
所以他们85%的搜索请求——没人会购买任何东西，甚至不认为与产品相关。
So for the 85% of searches they get that are not nobody's going to buy, even looking to buy anything or think it's not product related.
历史。
History.
哥伦布到底做了什么？
What did Columbus really do?
这是无法变现的。
It's not monetizable.
所以他们最好别在这上面亏太多钱。
And so they better not lose a lot of money on that.
AI改变了这一点。
AI changes that.
AI成本高昂。
AI is expensive.
我经常运行查询，知道仅一次查询就要花费数十美元。
I run queries regularly that I know cost tens of dollars just for my inquiry.
仅仅一次查询。
One inquiry.
谷歌已经将那些搜索成本降至微乎其微的分币级别。
Google had had those searches down to infinitesimal fractions of a cent.
所以这项业务是他们的金鹅，基本上就是他们全部的现金流来源。
So that business is the golden goose, and it's really basically all their cash flow.
关于LLMs的另一点是回顾互联网泡沫时期。
So the other thing about LLMs is that look back to the .com boom.
那是一场惊人的电信革命。
That was an amazing telecommunications revolution.
如果你在八十年代生活过，又在2000年代生活过，会发现一切都截然不同了。
If you were alive in the eighties and then you were alive in the 2000, it's nothing the same.
它戏剧性地改变了每个人的生活。
It's it changed everybody's life in a dramatic way.
而就在去年或今年早些时候，美国在线才关闭了最后一个拨号上网服务。
And still, AOL just connected its last dial up just like a year ago or earlier this year.
我是说，互联网在美国的普及速度非常缓慢。
I mean, the penetration was very slow in The United States.
但在新加坡、首尔这类城市国家或人口密集地区，普及速度却快如闪电。
It was pretty lightning fast in places like in Singapore, Seoul, these one city countries type thing or dense urban areas.
但直到金融危机时，这个过程已经持续了很长时间。
But it was it was a long time by the financial crisis.
但即使在金融危机之后，美国仍有很多人没有上网，或者你知道的，并没有真正使用网络。
But even after the financial crisis, there was a lot of people in The United States who were not online or were on you know, were in not really doing it.
所以当时随着网络连通性的提升，人们有很多东西想要销售。
So back then, as that connectivity came up, there was a lot of things people wanted to sell.
人们想要在网上销售商品。
People wanted to sell goods online.
亚马逊借此发展壮大。
They wanted Amazon grew on that.
他们想要在网上社交。
They wanted to socialize online.
他们想做这些事情。
They wanna do these things.
对于大语言模型，目前大多数人通过免费层级就能获得他们想要的功能，而且普及率已经非常高。
With LLMs, most people are getting what they want out of them right now on the on the free level, and they're massively penetrated.
没错。
Right.
对于普通人来说，它们还能做什么？
What more are they gonna do for the average person?
并没有太多。
Not that much.
利润将主要来自开发者领域，而且这个领域利润丰厚。
The money is gonna be in the in the developer space, and there's a lot of money in that space.
但我的意思是，只有极少数人愿意为他们的语言模型付费，而且他们永远不必这么做，因为这将变得商品化。
But this idea that I mean, a very small percentage of people want to pay for their LM, and they won't ever have to because they're gonna be so this is gonna be commoditized.
所以你应该能感受到迈克尔·贝瑞的思维方式了。
So I think you're getting a sense of how Michael Berry's mind works.
广告回来后，我终于明白他为何决定为《大空头》接受我的采访。
When we come back from the break, I finally find out why he decided to talk to me for The Big Short.
嗨。
Hi.
我是亚当·格兰特，播客《重新思考》的主持人。在这个节目中，我会与当代最杰出的思想家们探讨他们看待世界的独特视角。
I'm Adam Grant, host of the podcast Rethinking, a show where I talk to some of today's greatest thinkers about the unconventional ways they see the world.
在《重新思考》中，你将获得来自科学家、领导者、艺术家等各界人士的惊人洞见。
On Rethinking, you'll get surprising insights from scientists, leaders, artists, and more.
比如瑞茜·威瑟斯彭、马尔科姆·格拉德威尔和马友友这样的人物。
People like Reese Witherspoon, Malcolm Gladwell, and Yo Yo Ma.
聆听这些经验，帮助你在工作中取得成功，建立更好的人际关系等等。
Hear lessons to help you find success at work, build better relationships, and more.
在您获取播客的任何平台收听《重新思考》。
Find rethinking wherever you get your podcasts.
好的。
All right.
我稍后就让你走，但还有几件事我想请教你，因为我想听听你的见解。
So I'm going let you go in a minute, but I think are couple of other things I want to ask you about because I just want to pick your brain on them.
什么会引发这个国家的债务危机？
What triggers a debt crisis in this country?
比如，你是否密切关注我们政府的财政状况？
Like, do you pay are you paying much attention to our government's finances?
你对此有何看法，你认为
And how do you feel about them and where do you
情况会如何发展？
think it's headed?
所以预测这些事情本身就是问题所在。
So predicting this stuff is the problem.
我总喜欢用等待卡斯特罗去世来类比这种情况。
I always kind of put it in terms of, you know, waiting for Castro to die.
这算不上什么策略。
It's not a strategy.
人们的寿命很长。
The people live a long time.
国家拥有强大的力量，能做很多事情。
Countries are very powerful, and they can do a lot.
美国拥有储备货币地位。
The United States is the reserve has the reserve currency.
显然，特朗普正在全球范围内横行霸道，所以美国仍然是最主要的国家。
Obviously, Trump is bullying around the world right now, so they're United States is still a very primary country.
而赌他们找不到出路，这种想法我短期内可不敢苟同。
And betting that they can't find a way is not something I'd want to do anytime soon.
我确实认为这很荒谬。
I do think it's ridiculous.
我是说，我们个人税收收入大概有4.5万亿美元。
Mean, we have, what, 4 and a half trillion in taxes from individuals.
企业税收大约有4000亿美元。
We have about 400,000,000,000 from corporations.
我的意思是，你可以把企业税翻倍。
I mean, you could double the taxes on corporations.
那就是4000亿美元。
That's 400,000,000,000.
这能解决什么问题呢？
What does that do for you?
我们每年要支付1万亿美元的债务利息。
We have a trillion dollars in interest payments on our debt every year.
所以你看，当你面对这1万亿美元利息支出时，再加上所有福利开支——我们不像其他发达国家有那么多社会福利保障，但我们真的无力承担比现在更多的支出了。
So, you know, when you get that trillion that interest expense is getting up there and then you have all the entitlements, we're we do not have the social cushion that a lot of other developed countries have, but we can't really afford doing much more than we're doing.
所以你认为债务会不断膨胀再膨胀，但你不想赌它何时会崩溃？
So you think the debt's just gonna keep growing and growing and growing, but you wouldn't wanna bet when it breaks?
不。
No.
你不能赌，因为这是美国。
You can't because it's The United States.
你对美联储的独立性怎么看？
How do feel about Fed independence?
你在意吗？
Do you care?
我想我对此有一种病态的看法。
I think I have a different I have a kind of a sick view on this.
我认为当特朗普开始掌管美联储时，可能意味着美联储的终结。
I think that Trump when Trump starts running the Fed, it might become the end of the Fed.
因为如果他掌管美联储，那么所有人都会讨厌它，而不仅仅是我。
Because if he's running the Fed, then everybody's gonna hate it, not just me.
我们拭目以待吧。
So we'll see.
我认为美联储在过去一百年或者说自1914年成立以来造成了诸多损害，我觉得我们并不需要美联储。
I think the Fed is has done a lot of damage over the last hundred years or since its inception in 1914, and I feel we don't need the Fed.
我们不需要它。
We don't need it.
除非美联储表态说，听着。
Unless the Fed is going to say, look.
比如，他们为什么要降息？
Like, why are they gonna drop rates?
现在根本没有降息的理由。
There's no reason to drop rates now.
通胀已经开始小幅抬头了。
Inflation's starting to come up a little bit.
经济虽然勉强维持，但我们的中性利率绝不是1%或0%，也不是特朗普期望的水平。
The economy is muddling along, but our neutral rate is not 1% or 0% or where where Trump wants it.
我们的中性利率大概在4%左右，或者说大概就在当前水平附近。
Our neutral rate is probably around 4% or is probably around where we are now.
想想看，当你降息时，你伤害了所有储蓄者和固定收入人群。
And think about when you drop rates, you kill all the savers, all the fixed income people.
他们已经承受了太久。
They suffered for so long.
他们实际上终于重新找到了生活的节奏。
They're actually finally getting a rhythm to their lives again.
这一切都不是没有代价的，而你却想着要降息。
None of this is costless, and you think you're gonna just drop rates.
小心你的愿望。
Be careful what you wish for.
你可能会降息，但由于债务状况，你知道，收益率曲线可能会变得更陡峭。
You might drop rates, and because of the debt situation, that you know, the curve can steepen.
你刚才说你想摆脱
Did you just say you want to get rid of
美联储吗？
the Fed?
是的。
Yeah.
我认为美联储没做什么有益的事。
I I think the Fed doesn't do anything very helpful.
我觉得这是世界上最轻松的工作。
I think it's the easiest job in the world.
你打算用什么来替代它？
What do you replace it with?
我认为美国财政部可以设立一个专门做这些决策的部门。
I think the US Treasury could have a department that just makes these decisions.
我是说，美联储已经在货币化国债了，随便吧。
I mean, the Fed already is monetizing treasury debt, Whatever.
我的意思是，他们几乎就是
I mean, they're they're almost the
已经是同一个部门了。
same department already.
你这种体制性的悲观主义，是否会让你转向比特币、黄金这类人们寻求庇护的资产？
Your institutional pessimism, does it lead you to, like, I don't know, Bitcoin or gold or one of these refuges that people
我认为比特币涨到10万美元是最荒谬的事情。
I think that Bitcoin at a 100,000 is the most ridiculous thing.
就是这些人在电视上谈论比特币。
That same people are sitting on TV talking about Bitcoin.
他们随口就说能到10万美元。
They're just casually it's a 100,000.
现在跌了。
It's down.
现在是9万8千美元。
Now it's 98,000.
它根本不值钱。
It's not worth anything.
大家都接受了它。
Everybody's accepted it.
它是我们这个时代的郁金香泡沫。
It's the tulip bulb of our time.
它比郁金香泡沫更糟糕，因为它为大量犯罪活动提供了深层掩护。那么你会把钱藏在哪里？
It's worse than a tulip bulb because this has enabled so much criminal activity to go deep under So where do you hide with your money?
你有黄金吗？
Do you have gold?
我从2005年就开始持有黄金。
I've had gold since 2005.
我要让你回到我最后一个问题上。
I'm gonna let you go back to the last question I have.
我从未问过你这个问题。
I never asked you this question.
你让我进入你的厨房，实际上你让自己非常脆弱，并允许我讲述你的故事。
You let me into your kitchen in a really you made yourself very vulnerable, and you let me tell your story.
你后悔吗？
Do you regret it?
当你出现时，我就知道
When you showed up, I knew
你来自《说谎者的扑克》
you from Liars Poker.
我当时不知道你会怎么写我，因为你是个伟大的作家
And I didn't know what you're gonna write about me because you're I you're a great author.
我通过《点球成金》和《弱点》认识你，但涉及华尔街题材时，你往往非常批判
I knew you from I knew you from Moneyball and Blindside, but when you deal with Wall Street, you tend to be very fairly critical.
而我作为大牌对冲基金经理，刚刚做空了你的房子
And so I'm a big hedge fund manager who just shorted your house.
是你主动找的我
You approached me.
其实我是接到一个朋友的电话
Actually, I got a call from a friend.
我想你在纽约和我的一位朋友谈过，他打电话告诉我，他刚和迈克尔·刘易斯聊过。
You talked to, I think, one of my friends in New York, and he called me and he said, I just talked with Michael Lewis.
恭喜你。
Congratulations.
你将成为他新书中的英雄人物之一。
You're gonna be one of the heroes in his new book.
那时我才真正意识到，哦，事情会顺利发展的。
And that was when I really realized, oh, this is gonna go okay.
所以在某种程度上，我当时给你那些资料是出于防御心理。
So in a way, I was giving you all that stuff defensively.
我不想让你产生误解——我想确保你掌握全部信息，完全透明，因为我认为自己没做错任何事，也希望你能明白这点。
I didn't want you having a I wanted to make sure you had everything, full disclosure, because I thought I was I didn't do anything wrong, and I wanted you to know that.
是啊。
Yeah.
你知道吗，你吸引我的地方在于，你过去是、现在依然是一位出色的老师，能够非常清晰地阐述自己的想法。
You know, and your appeal to me was you were and are a fantastic teacher, like a really good explainer of your own thoughts.
而且你的想法有时会很独特，和其他人想的截然不同。
And your own thoughts can sometimes be peculiar, like just different than what other people are thinking.
你并不介意坚持这些想法。
And you don't mind holding them.
你也不介意持有那些会让不够自信的人羞于启齿的观点。
You don't mind having views that just would embarrass people who are less sure of themselves to articulate.
嗯，考虑到我的自闭症特质，我就...
Well, being on the spectrum, I'll just
缩回自己的世界里继续前行。
move back into my own head and move along.
所以
So
见到你真的很高兴。
It was great seeing you.
很遗憾你不能常来这里。
I'm sorry you're not out here more.
如果你在这边的话，希望你能告诉我一声，因为我有时会去你以前常去的地方转转，一起吃个晚饭会很有趣。
And if you were out here, I wish you'd just let me know because I'm I am down in your old neck of the woods some, and it'll be fun to go grab dinner.
我们还是会经常去那边的，所以我很期待能见到你。
We're still out there a lot, so I'll I'll look forward to seeing you.
好的。
Alright.
想你。
Miss you.
嗯。
Yeah.
我也想你。
Miss you too.
保重。
Take care.
谢谢你，迈克尔。
Thank you, Michael.
《违规操作》由迈克尔·刘易斯主持。
Against the rules, the Big Short Companion is hosted by Michael Lewis.
节目由我——路德维希·让·科特与凯瑟琳·吉拉尔多联合制作。
It's produced by me, Ludwig Jean Cott, and Catherine Girardeau.
我们的编辑是朱莉娅·巴顿。
Our editor is Julia Barton.
主题曲由尼克·伯特尔作曲，工程师是汉斯·戴尔·施。
Our theme was composed by Nick Bertell, and our engineer is Hans Dale Shi.
特别鸣谢妮可·奥普滕博施、茉莉·福斯蒂诺、帕梅拉·劳伦斯以及Pushkin有声书团队全体成员。
Special thanks to Nicole Optenbosch, Jasmine Faustino, Pamela Lawrence, and the rest of the Pushkin Audiobooks team.
《违规操作》是Pushkin Industries制作出品。
Against the Rules is the production of Pushkin Industries.
想收听更多Pushkin旗下播客节目，请通过iHeartRadio应用、苹果播客或任意播客平台订阅。
To find more Pushkin podcasts, listen on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you listen to podcasts.
若想享受无广告收听并了解独家内容，别忘了在pushkin.fm/+或苹果节目页面注册Pushkin Plus会员服务。
And if you'd like to listen ad free and learn about other exclusive offerings, don't forget to sign up for a Pushkin Plus subscription at pushkin.fm/+ or on our Apple show page.
您现在可以在pushkin.fm/audiobooks或任何有声书销售平台购买《大空头》。
And you can get The Big Short now at pushkin.fm/audiobooks or wherever audiobooks are sold.
当下身为美国人就像坐过山车一样刺激。
Being an American right now is a wild ride.
新闻头条层出不穷，但它们对人们的实际生活意味着什么？
The headlines come fast, but what do they actually mean for people's lives?
我是亚历克斯·瓦格纳，在我的新节目《失控国度》中，我将采访全国各地的人们，揭示政治乱局如何影响他们的日常生活。
I'm Alex Wagner, and on my new crooked media podcast, Runaway Country, I'm talking to people across the nation to uncover how political chaos is shaping their everyday realities.
请与我及政界最睿智的思想家们一起探讨：我们该如何重新掌控这个失控的国家？
Join me and some of the smartest thinkers in politics to ask how we take back the reins of a runaway nation.
每周四在任意播客平台收听《亚历克斯·瓦格纳的失控国度》，或通过YouTube观看完整视频。
Listen to Runaway Country with Alex Wagner every Thursday wherever you get our podcasts or watch full episodes on YouTube.
这里是iHeart播客《人类品质保证》。
This is an iHeart podcast, Guaranteed Human.
关于 Bayt 播客
Bayt 提供中文+原文双语音频和字幕，帮助你打破语言障碍，轻松听懂全球优质播客。