优步CEO达拉·科斯罗萨西谈自动驾驶未来、商业模式转型与就业岗位替代

美国最具影响力公司之一的驱动力。

The driving force behind one of America's most influential companies.

优步今日创下历史新高，去年涨幅达100%。

Record high today for Uber, 100% up last year.

Waymo与优步已宣布建立合作伙伴关系。

Waymo and Uber have announced a partnership.

当你的CEO像达拉这样成就斐然时，标准就会被不断抬高。

When you have a CEO that's done what Dara has done, you set the bar higher and higher.

我们对社会的影响是深远的。

The impact we have on society is significant.

我们希望未来能持续扩大这种影响，我对未来充满乐观。

We hope to keep building on that impact going forward, and I'm quite optimistic about what the future is gonna bring.

女士们先生们，有请优步CEO达拉·科斯罗萨西。

Ladies and gentlemen, please welcome Uber CEO, Dara Khazrshahi.

你好吗？

How are you?

很好

Are Good to

好的。

see Alright.

达拉，我不确定你是否知道，我是优步的早期投资人。

Dara, I wasn't sure if you were aware, but I was an early investor in Uber.

你...我听你说过一两次。

You I've heard you say it once or twice.

我很好奇我的投资表现如何。

And I'm curious how my investment's doing.

我不知道。

I don't know.

好的。

Okay.

根据今天的情况？

Based on today?

今天看起来相当不错。

Today's looking pretty good.

是啊。

Yeah.

所以自主性是个大家都想讨论的话题——优步目前在自动驾驶领域有多少合作伙伴？

So autonomy is the discussion I think everybody wants How to have in the many partners does Uber have in autonomy today?

我们在出行和配送业务方面有超过20家合作伙伴。

So, we have over 20 partners across both mobility and the delivery business.

可以说出行领域现在正处于实际应用阶段。

I'd say mobility now is in the field as we speak.

显然我们与Waymo建立了合作，我认为他们是亚特兰大和奥斯汀最顶尖的团队。

Obviously, we've got a partnership with Waymo who is, I think, the best of the best in Atlanta and Austin.

但我们也与许多其他厂商合作，包括多家中国企业。

But there are a number of other players that we are partnered with, a number of Chinese players.

自动驾驶在中国正迎来爆发期，我们正与许多想要拓展海外市场的中国企业建立合作。

Autonomy in China is hitting the big time, and a lot of these companies that wanna expand outside of China we're partnering with.

在美国，甚至在今年下半年，我们将在德克萨斯州启动几项合作伙伴关系，随后扩展到欧洲和世界其他地区。

And then in The US, even in in the second half of this year, we will have a couple of partnerships kind of hit the road in Texas, and then in Europe and the rest of the world.

所以你们会看到我们已经宣布了一系列合作伙伴关系。

So you will see we've announced a bunch of partnerships.

我们正在与合作伙伴开展大量工作。

We're doing a ton of work with partners.

你们最终会看到这些车辆在安全驾驶员陪同下上路，这些安全驾驶员将在今年上岗，特别是明年会更多。

You will see these cars hit the road with safety drivers eventually, and that safety drivers will come out this year and then especially going into next year.

我们将有大量车辆上路行驶。

We're gonna have significant number of cars on the road.

目前中国有多少企业实现了L4级无人安全驾驶？

How many people in China have level four, no safety driver today?

你对这些公司及其安全记录有何评价？

And what's your assessment of those companies and their safety record?

你知道的，这显然是个不同的市场。

You know, it's a different market obviously.

目前百度、文远知行、小马智行都已实现无人驾驶上路。

So, are Baidu, WeRide, Pony are all on the road today.

没有安全驾驶员。

No safety driver.

我们与它们都是合作伙伴。

We are partners with all of them.

它们的技术实力令人惊叹。

Their capabilities are amazing.

你可以想象在中国这些大城市里驾驶是相当复杂的一件事。

You can imagine driving in China in these big cities is quite a complex undertaking.

他们对安全的重视程度与西方公司不相上下。

They take safety just as seriously as the western companies do.

所以我认为他们的安全记录非常出色。

So I think their safety record is excellent.

最终，我们认为自动驾驶在安全性上可以超越人类，并能在未来挽救数百万条道路生命。随着时间的推移，特别是硬件成本的下降，这将降低出行成本，让按需出行服务惠及比现在多得多的人群。

Ultimately, think autonomous can be both superhuman in terms of safety and can save, millions of lives over the course of time on the road And over a period of time, as the cost of especially the hardware stack comes down, we think that it can bring the cost of mobility down and make mobility on demand available to many many more people than it is now.

因此这对我们来说将是一个巨大的市场扩展机遇。

So it it's gonna be a very big kind of market expander for us.

但这就是那场辩论，Dara，可能在你和Elon的X平台上有点火药味，你们其实是在就利弊进行理性探讨。

But that was the debate, Dara, that maybe kind of exploded a little bit on x between you and Elon where you guys I mean, respectfully just debating the pros and the cons.

也许可以向观众们简单说明下Elon的方案与Waymo方案的区别，以及你眼中的相对优劣。

Maybe just set it up for the folks in the audience the difference between Elon's approach and the Waymo approach and maybe the the relative pros and cons as you see it.

是的。

Yeah.

我是说，他们才是造车的人。

I mean, I think they're the ones building the cars.

对。

Yeah.

所以在某种程度上，我是个非常非常非常感兴趣的旁观者。

So I'm to some extent a very very very interested bystander.

但我这么理解：Elon的方案依赖于卓越的软件

But but the way that that I put it is Elon's approach depends on excellent software

对。

Right.

承担大量繁重工作。

To do a bunch of the heavy lifting.

要知道，早期开发产品时，可能会采用一些所谓的‘作弊代码’。

And that there are some you know, early on whenever you're building product, there may be some cheat codes that you undertake.

所以，你可以称之为‘作弊代码’，或者说是优秀的工程实践。

So, for example, you could call it cheat codes or, you know, good engineering.

早期系统中常见的配置之一就是摄像头、雷达、激光雷达。

Some of the things you see in early systems is, one is camera, radar, lidar.

多种

So multiple

传感器。

Sensors.

传感器，在传感堆栈上做冗余设计，以确保你的感知算法能真实反映世界。

Sensors, redundancy on the sensor stack to make sure that your perception algos are seeing the world as it really is.

埃隆只采用摄像头方案。

Elon is doing camera only.

对软件要求更高，但硬件成本更低。

Tougher on the software, cheaper for the hardware.

明白吗？

Okay?

第二，主要区别在于许多厂商使用高清地图。

Second, would say big difference is many of the players use HD maps.

高清地图的作用本质上是对区域进行测绘，这样软件就能更容易确定某个视角中的固定元素，比如道路标线、交通信号灯等等。

And what HD maps do is is essentially you map out an area so that it's much easier for the software to determine what are permanent aspects of a certain view, you know, the, the lines on the road, traffic lights, etcetera.

有了高清地图，软件就能非常轻松地分辨什么是固定元素（如道路设施），什么是临时物体（如车辆、行人等）。

Because of the HD maps, it's very very easy for that piece of software to determine what's permanent and then what's impermanent, vehicles, people, etcetera.

因此这大大降低了软件的工作难度，让它更容易理解周围环境并做出决策。

So it makes the job of the software much easier to figure out what's going on and then and then determine what to do.

埃隆的方案并不依赖高清地图。

Elon's approach doesn't depend on HD maps.

这再次增加了软件的工作难度。

And again, it makes the job of the software harder.

另一个我认为重要的因素是算力配置。

And then the other, I would say, significant factor is the compute.

当你观察算力配置时，会发现许多厂商的车辆后端都配备了相当昂贵且庞大的计算单元——包括浮点运算能力和内存等指标。

So, when you look at the compute and many of the other players, the compute in terms of flops and memory, etcetera, in the back of the car car is pretty expensive, pretty extensive.

而我认为特斯拉采用的是更精简的算力架构。

And I think Tesla's approach is with a much tighter compute stack.

你是否设想过这样一种可能：尝试将你们的解决方案推广到所有合作方，前提是他们愿意配合并达到你们的筛选标准？

Do you see a world where you try to pour your distribution into all those solutions assuming that everybody's amenable to working with you and it meets your threshold for what you're looking for?

是的。

Yeah.

你指的是安全性标准还是成本考量？

I think Safety or cost or?

正是如此。

Exactly.

我要说安全是第一位的。

I'd I'd say safety comes number one.

所以我们有一套特定的安全标准，要确保合作伙伴遵守甚至超越这些标准。

So we have a certain safety case that we wanna make sure that our partners adhere to or exceed.

这具体是指评估报告还是某些他们必须公布的指标？他们如何向你们证明？

And it's Just about is that an eval or is that like is that certain rates that they have to publish to you or how do they demonstrate to you?

这是技术方案和评估报告的综合考量。

It's it's the technical approach and the eval together.

听着，这是个双向对话的过程。

And listen, it is a dialogue.

对吧？

Right?

因为不同的人对安全有不同的理解方式。

Because different people take different approaches to safety.

我们要确保出现在Uber平台上的服务都尽可能安全。

We wanna make sure that if it's showing up on the Uber platform, it is as safe as it can be.

我们对安全的定义是：比人类驾驶安全多个数量级——这是可以实现的。

And our different definition of safety is multiple site times safer than a human being, which is achievable.

Waymo已经证明了这是可以做到的。

Waymo is showing that it's achievable.

许多中国厂商也正在证明这一点同样可行。

Many of the Chinese players are showing that that it's achievable as well.

所以只要达到我们的安全标准，且经济性有吸引力——随着硬件成本下降（比如五六年前激光雷达单价要200-300万美元）

So if it reaches our safety criteria and the economics are attractive and the economics as the cost of hardware comes down, you know, LiDAR was $2,030,000 bucks a pop like five, six years ago.

目前，州级激光雷达设备单价在300到500美元之间。

Now, state LiDAR is 300 to $500 a pop.

硬件成本正在大幅下降。

The cost of hardware is coming way down.

成本需要持续下降，因为这些车辆非常昂贵，之后我们才会与其开展业务。

Is going to need to continue to come down because these cars are very expensive, then we'll do business with them.

我们希望成为平台，并从根本上助力整个自动驾驶生态系统蓬勃发展。

We we wanna be the platform and and we want to essentially help the entire AV ecosystem thrive.

我们认为网络运营商、软件供应商和车辆所有者都有足够的经济空间来开展优质业务。

And we think there's enough economics for the network player to have a great business and the software providers and the vehicle owners to have a great business.

显然还存在车队运营方面的工作，比如车辆停放、充电等，这些都是必要的基础工作。

And then obviously there's fleet operations in terms of housing the cars, recharging the cars, you know, all of the kinda in the world work that's necessary as well.

当达到临界点时——假设是以行驶里程为指标——我想到最有趣的问题是：能否指导城市如何进行最优交通规划？

When you You're gonna get to a tipping point, I'm going to assume in driver miles, let's say, where one of the most interesting things that I've thought of is, could you tell a city how it should actually be designed for optimal traffic?

我们的工作重点并非最优交通规划。

So we work I wouldn't say for optimal traffic.

理论上这是可行的，但你知道，甚至交通信号灯...

I think theoretically it's possible, but, you know Or even stoplights

或类似设施。

or something.

是的。

Yeah.

谷歌或其他许多企业都能协助此事，而我们目前主要帮助城市规划充电基础设施布局，例如停车点、接驳点等，以优化交通流。

Google could there there are lots of other players who can help with that, but we're certainly helping cities in terms of where you should put charging infrastructure, for example, parking, drop offs, etcetera, to help traffic flows.

我认为我们可以成为城市的合作伙伴，我们确实有一个小型业务，基本上是为城市提供免费数据以支持城市规划工作。

I think we can be a partner for cities and we do have a small operation where essentially we offer data for free for cities to embark on city planning, so to speak.

他们会接受吗？

Do they take it?

有些会。

Some do.

有些会。

Some do.

一些更先进的城市会接受，但我不会说这是我们业务的主要部分。

Some of the more sophisticated cities take it, but I wouldn't call it a big part of our business.

所以，Dara，我

So, Dara, I

想问问你关于机器人出租车或自动驾驶汽车对商业模式的冲击。在旧模式下，优步的网络效应是一个市场效应，连接司机和乘客。

wanna ask you about the the business model impact of of basically robo taxis or In self the old world, Uber's network effect was a marketplace effect where you connected drivers and riders.

如果你在一个地区拥有最高的地理密度，你就能承诺乘客更快的接载，司机也能获得更高的利用率，这是一个非常强大的网络效应。

And if you had the most geographic density in an area, then you could promise riders faster pickups and the drivers got higher utilization, and that was a very powerful network effect.

但我们正在进入一个新世界，理论上任何拥有自动驾驶车队的人都可以向公众开放并开始竞争。

But we're moving into a new world where anyone who has a fleet of self driving cars, in theory, could just make them available to the public and start competing.

你认为这会对你的模式产生什么影响？

How do you see that impacting your mode?

你是否必须从轻资产业务转变为拥有所有这些汽车并部署它们？

And and do you have to go from being an asset light business to now owning all these these cars and deploying them?

这对你的业务是好事还是坏事？

And is that a good thing or a bad thing for your business?

所以我认为同样的经济学原理适用。

So I think I think that the same economics apply.

对吧？

Right?

也就是说，如果我们有这样的车队所有者，他们在特定市场可用的车辆数量将不如像我们这样的网络。

Which is if we have that fleet owner is not gonna have as many vehicles available in a certain market than, let's say, a network like ours.

而且我们将拥有一个混合网络。

And we will have a hybrid network.

我们将让人类司机和自动驾驶汽车共存，这种情况将持续一段时间。

We're gonna have humans and autonomous cars together and that's gonna continue for a while.

要知道，至少在可预见的未来，自动驾驶机器不会完全取代人类。

You know, the the autonomous machines are gonna aren't gonna replace all humans at least for the frizzy frizzy bill future.

因此，如果你加入我们的网络，相比独立运营的玩家，你将获得更多订单，因为我们已拥有需求基础。

So, for us, if you're a part of our network, you are going to get more requests than the player who's doing a standalone because we already have the demand.

订单请求的来源会近得多。

The request is gonna come from much closer.

也就是说，接单距离将从十五分钟车程缩短到三分钟车程，而实际行程仍是十分钟。

So instead of, you know, pick up who's fifteen minutes away for a ten minute ride, you're gonna get a pick up that's three minutes away for a ten minute ride.

因此在我们的网络中，创收里程占总行驶里程的比例要高得多。

So the utilization in terms of the revenue generating miles as a percentage of total miles driven is much much higher on on our network.

举例来说，独立运营的车队A与我们合作的车队B相比，车队B的业务量更大，其创收里程占总里程的比例也更高。

So the player that, you know, if you have fleet player a who's going direct, standalone, fleet player b who's working with us, fleet player b will have much more business, will have many more miles that are that are creating revenue as a percentage of the total miles driven.

最终，与我们合作的车队每辆车每日营收将远超独立运营的车队。

And as a result, each of their cars are gonna get much more revenue per car per day than than the fleet player who isn't working with us.

所以，我的意思是，归根结底，即使你想想Uber Eats的情况。

So, I mean, that ultimately is, you know, even if you if you think about Uber Eats.

对吧？

Right?

这里存在一个矛盾点：你是只做直接渠道，还是与市场平台合作？

There's this drama which is, hey, do you go direct only or do you work with a marketplace?

事实上，每个大型餐饮品牌，比如麦当劳，都有自己的直接渠道。

And the fact is, every major food player, McDonald's has a direct channel.

但他们也有一个平台，希望这个平台能创造尽可能多的收入。

But they have a box and they want that box to create as much revenue as possible.

所以他们既有直接渠道，也通过我们的DoorDash市场和其他市场平台运作，这样才能提高利用率。

So they have a direct channel and they work through our marketplace, DoorDash marketplace, other marketplace as well because that's how you drive utilization.

因此我认为大多数参与者中，虽然会有像Waymo、特斯拉这样能建立自己直接渠道的玩家。

And so I think that most of these players, there are going to be some players like a Waymo, like a Tesla, who can build their direct channel.

但我们认为，如果他们想从这些昂贵车辆中获取最大经济效益，现阶段也会需要与我们合作。

But we think if they want to drive maximum economics out of these really expensive cars for now, they're going to also want to work with us.

你认为需要购买并部署自己的车队，还是可以完全依赖第三方车队所有者？

Do you think you will need to buy and deploy your own fleets or can you rely purely on third party fleet owners?

所以我认为最终...如果你看最终形态，所有这些车辆都将具备融资可能性。

So I think that there's going to Ultimately, if you look at the end state, I think all of these cars are gonna be financeable.

再比如酒店业——我曾从事旅游业——希尔顿或万豪这些品牌并不拥有任何实体酒店。

So if you look again in the hotel business, I used to be in the travel business, a Hilton or a Marriott who's the brand doesn't own any of their hotels.

这些酒店都是由纯财务投资者持有的。

Those hotels are owned by financial only players.

我认为十年后，会出现一种叫做房地产投资信托基金（REITs）的东西。

And I think ten years down the line, you know, there are these things called REITs, real estate investment trusts.

你们将拥有车队。

You're gonna have fleets.

会有金融投资者拥有大量汽车车队，这些车可能接入我们的网络，也可能接入其他网络。

You're gonna have financial owners that own big fleets of cars that are on our network, maybe on other networks.

新的赫兹公司，

The new Hertz,

新型的企业级业务模式。

the new enterprise kind of event.

我认为更多会是金融玩家参与。

I'd say it's gonna be more financial players.

要知道，赫兹和企业号都是运营商。

So it's not, you know, Hertz and enterprise are operators.

好的。

Okay.

这些将会是纯粹的

These these are gonna be like pure

核心玩家。

The brass.

基石级的

Stones of the of

全球布局。

the world.

他们拥有车队，正试图尽可能将这些车队货币化。

And they own fleets, and they're just trying to monetize those fleets as much as possible.

这就是最终状态。

That's the end state.

从现在到最终状态，我们将承担资产负债表风险，因为我们能够签约。

Between now and the end state, we will take balance sheet risk because we can sign up.

我们非常清楚一辆车在特定市场能产生多少收入，因为这些车辆已经在创造收入。

We know exactly how much revenue a car can produce in said market because that because cars are already producing revenue.

所以我们可以签约获取这部分收入。

So we can sign up for the revenue.

我们将验证这个商业模式。

We will prove out the business model.

我们将利用我们的企业资源，通过资产负债表来验证这个商业模式。

We'll use our business we'll use our balance sheet to prove out prove out the business model.

最终在某个时间点，整个项目将实现金融化，我们就能将其移出资产负债表。

And then at some point, the whole thing's gonna get financialized and we'll be able to take it off balance sheet.

Waymo是否愿意与你们合作？

Does Is Waymo willing to work with you?

实际上Waymo目前正在与我们合作，地点在奥斯汀和亚特兰大。

I mean, actually Waymo Waymo is working with us now Austin and Atlanta.

好的。

Okay.

所以在奥斯汀和亚特兰大，如果你使用Uber，可能会被Waymo的车辆接载。

So, in Austin and Atlanta, if you're using Uber, you can be picked up with a Waymo.

我们的客户非常喜欢它。

Our customers love it.

他们喜欢的是它的无人驾驶特性吗？

Is it is it the driverless aspect of it that they love?

还是

Or

你知道的，他们很...你懂那种隐私保护的感觉吗？

You know, they're so The privacy thing you get?

我认为一方面是它们都是新车，而且是非常棒的车。

I think one is they're new cars, they're really nice cars.

是啊。

Yeah.

这感觉超酷的。

It's kind of freaking cool.

没错。

Yeah.

而且你在那辆车里也能享有隐私。

And you do have privacy in that car as well.

所以我觉得这种组合效果非常好。

So I think the combination of it works out really well.

我们看到体验过产品的客户。

We see customers who experience the product.

他们都给出了极高的评价。

They rate it really high highly.

他们再次使用了它。

They use it again.

所以这简直是一个绝对的动态产品。

And so it's just it's just an absolute dynamic product.

所以我们主要只讨论了x y轴。

So we've we've mostly only spoken about the x y axis.

我们有几个朋友正在创业，他们试图推出这些电动垂直起降业务。

And we have a couple of our friends who built businesses that are, you know, trying to launch these e v tall businesses.

是的。

Yeah.

我们还有一些朋友在尝试小型无人机送货。

Some of our other friends who are experimenting with small drone delivery.

告诉我们这些在未来基础设施中都将如何发挥作用。

Tell us where all of those things play in your infrastructure going forward.

所以我们绝对是电动垂直起降技术的信徒。

So we're we're absolutely believer in eVTOL.

我们是Joby的投资者，当这些飞行器可用时，我们将与他们合作。

We're an investor in Joby, and we are going to work with them as those vehicles become available.

我们知道还有其他一些飞行器。

We know that there are some other vehicles.

但我认为这种z轴的概念，如果你想这么称呼的话，非常有意义。

But I think the the kind of z axis, if you if you wanna call that, makes a ton of sense.

听着，世界上的城市本质上已经构建了第三维度，因为你在x和y维度上的扩展是有限的。

Listen, in cities of the world, essentially, they have built in the third dimension because there's only so much that you can expand, you know, in in the x and y dimension.

因此，企业已经在第三维度上实现了扩张。

So businesses have expanded in the third dimension.

住宅区已在第三维度扩展，但我们的交通基础设施仍停留在二维层面。

Residences have expanded in the third dimension, but our transportation infrastructure has only expanded in two dimensions.

没错。

Right.

所以交通状况只会不断恶化，因为第三维度尚未被利用。

So it's no wonder that traffic just keeps getting worse and worse and worse because that third dimension is isn't available.

因此我们坚定地支持电动垂直起降飞行器和无人机配送。

So we are absolutely believers in both eVTOLs and drone delivery.

在配送领域，我们目前主要聚焦两个方向。

Now, I think on the delivery side, there are two areas that we're working on.

一个是人行道机器人。

One is sidewalk robots.

这项技术相对更容易开发。

It's easier tech to develop.

请解释一下什么是人行道机器人。

Explain what that is a sidewalk robot.

在洛杉矶和圣莫尼卡已经有一些人行道机器人投入使用。

So, sidewalk robots, there are some of them in LA and Santa Monica.

它们是能在人行道上自主行驶的交通工具。

They are autonomous vehicles that drive on the sidewalks.

它们的行驶速度相当缓慢。

They drive pretty slowly.

它们非常非常安全。

They're very, very safe.

它们看起来有点可爱。

They look kinda cute.

而且它们适合用于一英里或更短距离的配送。

And they're appropriate for deliveries that are a mile or less long.

所以适合在狭小空间内配送。

So deliveries in a tight space.

因此在人行道机器人适用的配送领域，对我们来说存在一个特定的可触达市场。我们正与Serve、Cardigan等多家美国、日本及其他市场的合作伙伴展开合作。

And so there's a certain addressable market for us in deliveries where those sidewalk robots work, and we're working with Serve, Cardigan, and a number of other players in The US, in Japan, in a number of other markets.

另一方面，还有无人机配送。

Then on the other side, there's drone delivery.

无人机配送更适合那些分布更分散、郊区化、没有高层建筑等的市场。

And drone delivery is appropriate for markets where, you know, they're more spread out, suburban, no high rises, etcetera.

我们认为这两种方式结合起来，可以覆盖我们50%以上的配送总可触达市场（TAM）。

Those two together, we think can cover 50 plus percent of our delivery TAM, so to speak.

但还有另外50%需要我们解决首尾一英里的问题。

But then there's another 50% that we're gonna have to work on in terms of the first and the last mile.

你知道的，从餐厅出来再把食物送进你的公寓，人类自己负责首尾一英里的配送。

You know, coming out of the restaurant and then getting the the food into your apartment as well, humans take care of their own first and last mile.

但你需要某种方式来处理食物的首尾一英里配送。

But you need something to take care of the first and last mile of the food.

这就是挑战所在，我们正与多家合作伙伴探讨如何解决食品配送的首尾一英里问题。

That's where the challenge is gonna come in and we're working with a number of players to see how we can get that first and last mile for food.

我想谈谈

I wanna talk to

你稍等一下。

you Take for minute care.

如果可以的话，我想讨论一下资产负债表。

If I may about the balance sheet.

是的。

Yeah.

我们在优步早期获得的一个重要洞见就是关于盈利能力的。

One of the great, you know, sort of early insights we had at Uber was around profitability.

媒体和舆论总说优步永远无法盈利，我曾与TK、威廉以及纽约的乔什他们讨论过，他们都表示随时可以通过每单加价2美元实现盈利。

And the press and the narrative was, oh, Uber could never be profitable and I would talk to TK about it and and and William and all the Josh in New York and they're like, yeah, we could flip it at any moment in time to $2 more a ride.

我们不会流失任何订单，而且会获得惊人的利润。事实上，在你的领导下，优步已成为一台印钞机，甚至宣布了200亿美元的股票回购计划。

We would lose no rides and it'd be wild profitable and in fact, under your stewardship, Uber has become a money printing machine to the point at which you announced a $20,000,000,000 stock buyback.

没错。

Yes.

我看到时不禁感叹，这简直太不可思议了。

And I saw it and I said, wow, this is just incredible.

不过

However

你碰巧在推特上提过这事吗？

Did you tweet about it by chance?

可能有吧。

I might have.

我可能会。

I might.

偶尔，我会转发你的推文，让你小小闪耀一下。

Once in a while, I'll retweet you and and give you a little shine.

但我确实有过这样的想法——我曾邀请Neuro的克里斯上节目，而你们达成了这项了不起的合作，要让两万辆Lucid汽车上路。

But I did have this thought that And I had Chris from Neuro on the program and you have this great partnership to put 20,000 Lucids on the road.

什么错误的播客。

What Wrong podcast.

但那是什么？

But What's that?

开。

On.

错误的播客。

Wrong podcast.

另一个播客。

The other podcast.

所以我在想，你如何看待这个资金池、印钞机以及这笔资产的配置问题。

And so, I'm wondering how you think about the war chest, the money printing machine and deployment of that asset.

你如何决定是进行200亿美元的股票回购，还是向Neuro投入3亿资金？我们曾邀请特拉维斯上播客，他说自己有很多机会考察像Pony这样见诸报端的项目，如果能请到创始人本人可能会很棒——当然这只是我的猜测。

How do you decide $20,000,000,000 stock buyback versus putting 300,000,000 into neuro or we had Travis on the podcast and he said he's had many opportunities to look at things like Pony which has been in the press and it would be pretty great to have the original founder maybe I don't know.

你们手头闲置着几十亿资金，或许能帮助他把Pony带到西方市场。

You've got a couple of billion laying around and maybe help him have Pony come to the West.

那么，你打算如何配置这些资本来推动持续增长呢？毕竟我们现在的处境是...

So, how do you think about deploying that capital in order to, you know, continue to grow from Where are we at?

全球大约1%的出行是共享出行吗？

1% of rides globally are ride sharing approximately?

略高一些，大约在12%左右。

A little more, but it's between 12%.

这是一个非常

It's a very

低的数字。

low number.

很明显，随着自动驾驶技术的发展，这个比例会上升到20%。

It's clear it's gonna go to 20 with autonomy.

毫无疑问。

Definitely.

那么，如果我们都相信这一点且这是显而易见的，这是资本的最佳用途吗？

And so, if we all believe that and that's obvious, is that the best use of the capital?

你如何做出这个决定？

How do you make that decision?

所以，我认为对我们来说好消息是这并不是非此即彼的选择。

So, I I think the good news for us is it's not either or.

我们可以同时兼顾两件事。

We can walk and chew gum at the same time.

在过去十二个月里，我们的现金流超过了85亿。

In the past twelve months, we've had over eight and a half billion of cash flow.

业务在增长，收入增长18%，利润增长35%。

The business is growing, you know, top line 18%, bottom line 35%.

因此，现金流将在未来三到五年内大幅增长。

So that cash flow is gonna grow by a lot over the next three to five years.

我们宣布了200亿美元的股票回购计划，因为我们期待在能够积极投资的领域发力，比如自动驾驶领域，这是我们应该做的，因为无论是车辆还是车队，这都是一个巨大的机遇。

And we announced the 20,000,000,000 buyback because in looking forward to areas in which we could invest aggressively, for example, in AV, because we should, because it's an enormous opportunity whether it's vehicles or fleets, etcetera.

我们非常有信心拥有足够的资金在那里适度地大举投入，同时还能回购我们的股票。

We are very comfortable that we've got enough capital to be super aggressive there appropriately, and at the same time, buy back our stock.

我们知道有一家很优秀的公司。

There's a great company we know of.

管理团队还有提升空间，但他们目前表现尚可。

Management team can get a little better, but they're okay.

而且我们认为这是一笔很划算的交易。

And we think it's a great deal.

所以这并不是非此即彼的选择。

So it's not it's not an either or.

对我们来说，这是可以兼得的，而且我们很幸运目前能处于这样的位置。

It's it's it's an and for us, and we're lucky to be in that position at this point.

你们在Uber Eats业务上规模很大。

You have a very big business in Uber Eats.

是的。

Yes.

它与DoorDash等公司存在竞争。

It competes with folks like DoorDash.

嗯。

Mhmm.

特拉维斯几周前，也许一个月前，上过播客节目。

Travis was on the pod a few weeks ago, maybe a month ago Yeah.

他谈到了食品的机器人化之类的话题。

He he talked about sort of robotization of food and all of that.

你能和我们分享一下你对这一切发展方向的愿景吗？

Can you just talk to us about your vision of where all of that stuff goes to and

实际上我们与特拉维斯及其云厨房业务有合作。

So we're we actually work with Travis and his Cloud Kitchens business.

他还在Otter建立了一个餐饮科技企业。

He's also built a restaurant tech business in in Otter as well.

我认为任何不深入发展外卖业务的餐饮企业，在可预见的未来都必将失去市场份额。

And I do think that you are you know, any food business that is not deep in delivery is going to lose share, period, for the foreseeable future.

因此每个食品企业、杂货企业，甚至现在的零售企业都必须进入外卖领域，开展即时配送服务。

So every single player, food player, grocery player, even now retail player, to get into delivery and has to get into on demand delivery.

否则他们将错过最具吸引力的消费者群体。

Otherwise, they're kind of missing the most attractive segment of of consumers out there.

随着劳动力成本上升，这些企业都在建设或投资更多自动化工作站。

And I think as the cost of labor is going up, all of these businesses are building or investing increasingly in robotic station.

虽然这不是我们涉足的领域，但当更健康美味的食物能以更低价格获取时，我们的配送业务也会随之受益

It's not something that we are getting into, but as more food, healthy food, delicious food becomes more available at lower prices, then our delivery business kinda will benefit along

与合作伙伴共同发展。

with our partners.

我不断从你这里听到——你可以纠正我如果错了——你正在转型为一个轻资产、高流动性的分销网络。

I'm hearing consistently from you, and you can just tell me if this this is wrong, that you are becoming increasingly an asset light, highly liquid distribution network.

比如，你们拥有这种惊人的网络效应。

Like, you have this incredible network effect.

你们拥有数亿甚至接近十亿的用户，可以轻松将他们引流到所有这些业务中。

You have these hundreds of millions, maybe approaching a billion users, and you can just pour them into all of these things.

本质上，我们为驱动人员、物品、食品和杂货流动的资产带来需求，这些都是重资产业务。

We we are essentially we bring demand to the assets that are driving the movement of people and things and food and grocery, and these are all asset heavy businesses.

因此，来自我们网络的每新增一点需求对他们来说都极具价值。

So the next incremental piece of demand that comes from our network is incredibly valuable for them.

而我们基本可以保持轻资产运营。

And we can do so staying largely capital light.

同时，只要能用我们的资金投资自动驾驶生态系统或车队等，我们也可以那么做。

At the same time, to the extent that I can use my capital to invest in the AV ecosystem or fleets, etcetera, we can also do that.

有一家公司想要单干。

There's one company that wants to go go on its own.

是我们的一个朋友在运营。

A friend of ours runs it.

我想你们私下应该有过一些对话，公开场合显然也有过。

I think that you probably have had some conversations, obviously publicly you have.

要怎么说服埃隆在优步车队投放10万辆自动驾驶出租车？虽然他可能还是会坚持自营，因为他的应用表现非常出色，试点也很顺利。

What's the best pitch to Elon to put a 100,000 robo taxis into the Uber fleet while Oh, I think still doing his own because his app is doing spectacularly well and the and the pilots are doing well.

所以他肯定能搞定。

So he'll obviously figure it out.

但你们会怎么说服他加入优步网络呢？

But what's your best pitch to him to joining the Uber network?

我认为要倾听。

I think listen.

这个推销很简单，如果你想最大化那些自动驾驶出租车的收入

The the pitch is simple, which is if you're looking to maximize the revenue of those robo taxis

今天。

Today.

今天，是的。

Today Yeah.

我们是你实现收入最大化的门票。

We are your ticket to the maximization of that revenue.

就你希望这些车队由人们拥有而言——那些数字牧羊人，这是埃隆提出的一个惊人愿景——如果这些车主无法在优步网络上变现资产，他们的收益就会低于预期。

To the extent that you're looking to have these fleets owned by people, you know, kind of the digital shepherds, which is an amazing vision that that Elon has, to the extent that those owners are not able to monetize their assets on the Uber network, they will under monetize.

如果有竞争对手允许这些车辆接入优步网络，那些车辆的变现能力会更强，数字牧羊人就会转向别处。

And if there's a competitor who is offering those vehicles to be on the Uber network, the monetization of those vehicles are gonna be superior And those digital shepherds are gonna go elsewhere.

所以，这就是我们的核心论点。

So, think that is the pitch.

再说一次，埃隆这个人，你知道的，他信奉全栈理念

And again, Elon is, you know, he kind of believes in full stack

是的。

Yes.

而且他已经证明了这一点。

And he's proven it.

我认为这个市场足够大，容得下多个赢家。

And and I think that this market is large enough for there to be multiple winners.

显然。

Clearly.

但最终，在某种程度上，你知道，我们非常愿意与他们合作。

But in the end, to the extent that, you know, we would love to partner with them.

但在现阶段，他们选择独立发展，我认为市场足够大，可以容纳多个赢家。

But at this point, they're looking to go it alone and I think the market is large enough to carry a number of winners in this

关于人类的棘手问题。

tough question about humans.

我之前在和威尔·巴恩斯交谈，他最初负责洛杉矶业务，后来管理半个国家的业务。是的。

I was talking to Will Barnes who ran originally Angeles and then half of the country Yeah.

为特拉维斯准备的。

For for Travis.

威尔·巴恩斯提出了一个非常深刻的见解：早期我们遇到人类抗议者，他们反对网约车司机与出租车司机竞争。是的。

And Will Barnes had a pretty amazing insight which was in the early days we had humans protesting humans competing for, you know, the taxi drivers Yeah.

与网约车司机对立。

Versus the ride share drivers.

事实上在中国武汉，已经出现了大量社会动荡，他们正在讨论限制自动驾驶汽车的牌照数量，因为如果从事这些工作的年轻人失业，将会引发社会动荡。

In China, in Wuhan in fact, there's been a lot of civil unrest and they're talking about limiting the number of licenses for self driving cars because of the disruption that would happen if young men who have those jobs are not able to have a job.

我们看到Waymo的车辆在洛杉矶被砸毁，这也是一个非常明确的信号。

And we saw the Waymo's get called to their death here in Los Angeles and that was a pretty clear message as well.

你如何看待这群人失业的问题？

How do you think about that group of people losing their jobs?

这些司机构建了Uber网络、Lyft和DoorDash，中国对此极为关注，因为这是机器人取代人类工作，而且...

These drivers who built the Uber network, who built Lyft, who built DoorDash and China's overwhelming concern about this because these are robots taking human jobs and there's

是的。

Yeah.

嗯

An

你知道，关于这个问题有很多讨论，我认为在科技行业我们可能没有直接面对这个话题。

You know, there there's a lot of discussion about this and I think maybe in the tech industry we don't talk about it head on.

我是说，听着，这对整个AI领域和就业替代来说是个大问题。

I mean, listen, this is it's a big issue for AI in general and job displacement.

你在年轻毕业生身上也能看到这种情况。

You see it with younger graduates as well.

我认为对我们来说，至少未来五年内，平台上增加的自动驾驶汽车不会取代人力，因为平台发展太快了，我们完全可以消化这部分需求。

I think for us, at least for the next five years, the number of robot cars coming onto the platform are not going to be displacing people because the platform is just growing so quickly that we can very easily take that take that demand.

而且我们的司机队伍本身就有自然流动。

And and there is a natural turnover of our driver base.

所以在奥斯汀或其他我们推出自动驾驶的市场，我们会放缓司机招募，让机器人加入，而现有平台司机仍能保持原有收入水平。

So, a market like in Austin or other markets in which we're launching autonomous, we will turn down the driver recruitment machine so the robots can come in and the drivers who are currently driving in the platform can make as much money.

现在奥斯汀司机的收入与引入Waymo之前持平甚至更高。

So Austin drivers now are making as much or more money than they were before we introduced Waymo.

所以我认为未来五到七年，我们的人力司机和配送员数量反而会增加，就因为业务扩张太快。

So I think for the next five to seven years, we're we're gonna have more human drivers and delivery people just because we're going so quickly.

但我觉得十到十五年后，这会成为真正棘手的问题。

But I think, you know, ten to fifteen years from now, this is gonna be a real issue.

而且杰森，我对此没有完美的解决方案。

And, Jason, I don't have a neat answer for it.

现在，我们正在寻找其他类型的工作。

Now, we're finding, like, other kinds of work.

我们有司机和快递员，你知道的，他们在标注AI标签，我们还有整个Uber人工智能解决方案业务。

We've got drivers and couriers, you know, labeling AI labels and looking, you know, we have a whole Uber AI solutions business.

所以从本质上说，看待Uber的一种方式是：我们是工作平台，而交通出行是最初的工作类型。

So we're essentially one way to look at Uber is we are platform for work and transportation is the first kind of work.

现在我们也在扩展其他类型的按需工作，以便为想要在我们平台上赚钱的人调整可提供的工作种类。

And now we're expanding into other kinds of on demand work as well to be able to adjust the kind of work available to people who wanna earn our platform.

但我认为从长远来看，这是一个巨大的社会问题，我们和许多其他人都将不得不面对。

But I think long term, this is a big, big societal question that we're gonna have to struggle with and lots of others are gonna struggle with too.

完全同意。

Absolutely.

好的。

Alright.

非常感谢。

Thank you very much.