凯茜·伍德谈AI如何使GDP翻倍，比特币百万美元看涨理由，埃隆的万亿美元薪酬方案

当今ETF领域最具颠覆性和创新性的力量之一。

One of the most disruptive and innovative forces in the ETF world today.

投资女王凯茜·伍德。

The investor queen, Kathy Wood.

方舟创新ETF当前交易价格接近52周高点。

The Arc Innovation ETF trading now near a fifty two week high.

实现了惊人的148%回报率。

Returned an astounding 148%.

去年回报率超过170%，目前管理着170亿美元资产。

Returning more than a 170% last year, now has $17,000,000,000 under management.

我的信心如此坚定源于我的日常工作。

My conviction is so high because of what I do on a day to day basis.

我们正在进行原创研究，试图找出那些将改变世界的公司。

We are doing original research trying to figure out these companies that are going to transform the world.

女士们先生们，有请ARK投资公司的凯茜·伍德。

Ladies and gentlemen, please welcome ARKT Invest's Kathy Wood.

大家好。

Well, greetings.

非常高兴能来到这里，这是我的首秀。

I'm so delighted to be here, my maiden voyage.

我将谈谈未来五到十年世界将如何转型，实际GDP增速会多快提升，以及通胀为何会保持在低位。

And I am here to talk about how the world's going to transform during the next five to ten years and how much more rapidly we will see real GDP grow and how low inflation is going to be and why.

那么我们现在开始。

So here we go.

这是一份创新时间线，可以看到它一直延续到18世纪。

Here is a timeline of innovation, and, you can see it goes into the seventeen hundreds.

我们的首席未来学家布雷特·温顿与学术界合作完成了这项研究。

And our chief futurist, Brett Winton, in conjunction with academics, pulled this together.

你现在看到的是创新对生产力的影响。

What you're seeing here is the impact of innovation on productivity.

可以看到在这段时间里，我们经历了两个伟大时代。

And you can see in this time, we've had two great eras.

第一个时代是在19世纪末20世纪初。

The first one was in the late eighteen hundreds, early nineteen hundreds.

电话、电力、内燃机。

Telephone, electricity, internal combustion engine.

GDP增长大幅提升。

Huge boost in GDP growth.

事实上在此之前，在那之前的四百年里，实际GDP增长率平均每年只有0.6%，增速非常缓慢。

And in fact, prior to that, for the four hundred years prior to that, real GDP growth had been averaging about 0.6 per year, very slow.

之后我们进入了持续125年的3%实际GDP增长期。

After that, we went into a one hundred and twenty five year period of 3% real GDP growth.

因此增长率从0.6%提升到3%，实现了五倍增长。

So a five fold increase from 0.6 to 3%.

你必须把目光转向今天，才能看到多个创新平台同时发展。

You have to move to forward to today to see multiple innovation platforms evolving at the same time.

这是125年来的首次。

So for the first time in a hundred and twenty five years.

这次有五个平台，而非三个主要平台，它们涉及15种不同的技术。

This time, there are five platforms, not three major platforms and they involve 15 different technologies.

这对于研究和分析世界的方式至关重要。

This is very important in terms of how to research and analyze the world.

未来将不再按行业或产业划分。

It's not going to be by sector or industry anymore.

而是按技术划分，因为技术正在渗透每个行业、每个领域，模糊了它们之间的界限。

It is going to be by technology because technology is permeating every sector, every industry and blurring the lines between them.

所以这里你可以看到五个。

So you can see five here.

我们相信未来五到十年生产率将大幅提升，我认为特朗普总统的税收方案将加速这一进程，实际GDP增长率将从过去125年保持的3%加速到7%以上。

We believe that the productivity uplift here is going to be so strong during the next five to ten years and I think president Trump's tax package is going to turbocharge this, that real GDP growth will accelerate from that 3% where it has been for the last hundred and twenty five years towards 7% plus.

而且我们认为这可能还是保守估计。

And we think that could be conservative.

这是之前五倍提升基础上再翻两倍多。

That's a little more than two times as opposed to the five fold uplift before.

所以做好准备吧。

So get ready.

但我们认为另一个即将发生的情况是：通胀将远低于预期水平。

But the other thing that we think is going to happen is that inflation is going to surprise significantly on the low side of expectations.

当我们摆脱关税影响，看着它们如何通过指数传导，并迈入技术爆炸的新时代时，看到0%甚至负通胀率都不会让我们惊讶。

We would not be surprised to see 0% inflation or less as we exit the tariffs here and and the way they're getting through the indexes and move forward into this new age of technological explosion.

这次爆炸性发展的原因不仅在于这五个平台——我本应列出它们：机器人技术、能源存储、人工智能、区块链技术和多组学测序。

One of the reasons for this explosion is not just the five platform, So I should have named them robotics, energy storage, artificial intelligence, blockchain technology, and multi omic sequencing.

五大平台涉及15种不同技术。

Five major platforms platforms involving 15 different technologies.

从这里可以看出为何我们认为将迎来爆发式增长。

And here you can see why we think we're going to see explosive growth.

正是这些技术之间的融合。

It is the convergence between and among these technologies.

举两个技术融合的例子。

So just to give you two examples of convergence.

在自动驾驶领域，这是机器人技术、能源存储和人工智能的融合。

In the autonomous mobility space, that is the convergence of robotics, energy storage, and artificial intelligence.

每项技术或平台都遵循自身的S曲线，我们正进入S曲线的黄金阶段——特斯拉已在奥斯汀和旧金山推出自动驾驶出租车。

Now each one of those technologies or platforms is following its own s curve, and we are moving into the sweet spot of the s curve now that autonomous taxis are debuting in the case of Tesla in Austin and San Francisco.

Waymo在这方面已布局多时。

Waymo's been there for a while.

想想看。

Just think about that.

一条S曲线推动另一条S曲线，再推动下一条S曲线。

One s curve feeding another s curve feeding another s curve.

这就是我们将见证爆发式增长的原因。

That's why we're going to see explosive growth.

另一个例子在医疗健康领域。

Another example is in the healthcare space.

虽然短期来看自动驾驶可能创造最大收益，但我们认为AI最深刻的应用在于医疗健康。

While the autonomous mobility space might be the biggest revenue generator in the short term, we believe that the most profound application of AI is in healthcare.

这就是测序技术、人工智能以及CRISPR基因编辑等技术融合的体现。

And that's the convergence of sequencing technologies and artificial intelligence and technologies like CRISPR gene editing.

我认为这才是潜在的赢家。

And I think this is the sleeper.

这是市场上定价最不合理的部分。

It's the most inefficiently priced part of the market.

所以你能理解为何按技术而非行业来设立研究部门如此重要。

So you can see why it's going to be so important to set up research departments by technology, not by sector or industry.

在这最后一页上，是我们对股市估值走势的预测。

And on this last page here, here is what we think is going to happen to the equity market in terms of valuations.

你可以看到青绿色部分，那就是'六巨头'。

So you can see in the turquoise there, that's the mag six.

原本是'七巨头'，但当特斯拉表现与其他六家不同步时就被剔除了。

The mag six, it used to be called the mag seven, but they threw Tesla out when it wasn't behaving like the rest of the mag six.

从2019到2024年，'六巨头'市值增长了三倍。

So you can see from 2019 to 2024, the mag six tripled.

它们的市值在市场上翻了三番。

They tripled in valuation in the market market cap.

而真正颠覆性的创新（底部紫色部分）仅上涨了30%。

Whereas truly disruptive innovation in the purple at the bottom there went up only 30%.

这是因为投资者趋于保守，只投资市场上现金最充裕的大型股票。

And that's because investors were playing it safe and they were, they were investing only in the largest most cash rich stocks in the market.

那段时间对创新和风险投资整体而言都非常艰难。

That was a very difficult time for innovation for venture capital generally.

你可以预见未来五年间我们预期会发生的变化。

And you can see what we expect to happen between, well, really the next five years.

这六家巨头中，有些表现优异，有些面临阻力，而人工智能领域的苹果公司已有详尽记录。

The, mag six, some of them will do well, some are facing headwinds, apples in the AI space are well documented.

现在我们认为，真正颠覆性创新的时刻即将在市场上大放异彩。

And now we think it is truly disruptive innovations time to shine in the market.

我感觉过去四年就像橡皮筋不断拉伸，直到唐纳德·特朗普当选才突然松开。

I feel as though a rubber band has been stretching for the last four years and it let go with the election of Donald Trump.

那时真正的颠覆性创新开始显现，股市也从高度集中的六大巨头策略转向更广泛的颠覆性创新领域。

That's when truly disruptive innovation started to to shine and the stock market started to broaden out from the very concentrated max six strategies into much more widespread disruptive innovation.

换言之，风险偏好和时间视野正在此时开始扩展。

In other words, risk appetite and time horizon is starting to extend here.

我认为税改方案中，企业减税这一多数人尚未关注的政策尤为关键。

And I think the tax package, especially the corporate tax cuts which most people haven't focused on.

建筑物在投入使用的首年即可全额折旧。

Full depreciation of structures first year they're put in service.

设备、国内研发和软件支出在首年可全额费用化。

Full expensing of equipment, r and d domestic, and software in year one.

这些都是当前投资的巨大激励，我认为这正是即将发生的趋势。

These are huge huge incentives to invest now and I think that's exactly what's going to happen.

当你看到这里的差异时——我们去年底制作的这张图表展示了当前预期的真正颠覆性创新。

When you can see the difference here, the truly disruptive innovation we would expect now we did this chart at the end of last year.

未来五年有望实现约50%的年化复合回报率。

During the next five years to deliver a compound annual rate of return of roughly 50%.

我们已经见识过部分情况，因此年复合变化率可能在40%到45%之间。

Now we've had some of that, so maybe it's 40 to 45% compound annual rate of change.

而这还只是公开股票市场的情况。

And this is in the public equity world.

在私募领域，你们等着瞧吧。

In the private world, just wait until you see.

当然，随之而来的是信息披露。

With that, disclosures, of course.

他们了解披露要求。

They know the disclosure.

了解披露要求。

Know the disclosure.

女士们先生们，有请凯西·伍德。

Ladies and gentlemen, Kathy Wood.

凯西，请加入我们。

Kathy, join us.

谢谢。

Thank you.

感谢收看本场节目。

Thanks for watching the set.

谢谢。

Thank you.

谢

Thank

非常感谢你能来。

you so much for coming.

我知道你非常忙。

I know you're very busy.

这是我的荣幸。

My pleasure.

你预测五年后比特币会涨到每枚380万。

You're projecting in five years, bitcoin hits 3,800,000.0 per coin.

这是黄金市值的五倍，而黄金目前正处于历史高位。

That's five times the market cap of gold, which has hit an all time high.

请给我们详细解释一下这个计算过程。

Walk us through the math here.

我想稍微纠正一下这个说法。

So I'm going to just correct that a bit.

我们官方看涨的预测值是150万。

Our official for bull case is 1,500,000.0.

好的。

Okay.

让我们得出380万这个数字的是现代投资组合理论。

Now what what got us to that 3.8 is using modern portfolio theory.

如果我们按照最优权重将比特币纳入投资组合，即最大化夏普比率，这个调整会使其达到380万。

If we were to include Bitcoin in portfolios at its optimal weight, so maximizing the Sharpe ratio, that would have provided that increment to 3,800,000.0.

信不信由你，根据我们的分析，这个仓位规模占多元化投资组合的19%。

Now, believe it or not, that position size, when we did that analysis, was 19% of a diversified portfolio.

真不少啊。

That's a lot.

确实很多。

That's a lot.

没错。

Yeah.

我还有更多想法。

I have more in mind.

你这是要放手一搏啊。

Well, you swing for the fences.

当你的亲戚或普通人问你，'我该持有多少比特币？'

When your cousins, your when civilians ask you, hey, how much Bitcoin should I own?

私下里你会给家人什么建议数字？

What's the number you would say in private to a family member?

对家人说吗？

To a family member?

对。

Yeah.

你想保护他们。

You you wanna protect them.

你不会说'我们要豪赌一把'这种话。

You're not like, hey, we're we're swinging for the fences.

这必须是我们全垒打的机会。

This needs to be our home run.

但是

But just

我会告诉

I'll tell

你我对孩子们说过的话。当然。

you what I've told my children Sure.

长期以来，我的意思是，你知道，平均来说，每个月都只是平平无奇，然后我会根据他们的舒适度让他们自行决定。

For a long time now is average in I mean, you know, average in, you know, every month, every just average in and and and then I would leave it to them in terms of their comfort factor.

明白了。

Got it.

凯西，我能问你关于... 可以吗？

Kathy, can I ask you about Yes?

ARC有能力成为许多普通人的工具，他们只是过着日常的生活，想知道未来什么会表现得好。

So ARC has this ability to be a vehicle for a lot of folks that are just living their normal day to day lives and they want the answer to what is gonna do well in the future.

他们可以去购买你们的ETF，然后参与那个未来。

And they can go and they can they can buy your ETFs and then they can participate in that future.

有很多人明显感到沮丧，因为他们无法取得进展、突破和积累财富。

There's a lot of people that are frustrated, palpably frustrated with an inability to sort of get ahead and break through, build wealth.

首先，美国经济上发生了什么阻碍了这么多人？

First, what is economically happening in in America that prevents so many people?

你看到了什么？

What do you see?

第一点。

Number one.

其次，散户投资者具备哪些特质和责任？

And then number two, what characteristics and responsibility do retail investors have?

如果他们打算孤注一掷地投资这个，或者购买那个，还想在风险谱系上走得更远，那么他们应该承担什么责任才能避免在赌场里血本无归？

If they're gonna YOLO this and if they're gonna buy this other thing and they're gonna try to go further out on the risk spectrum, what is their responsibility so that there's no crying in the casino?

接触创新领域有多种途径，当然其中关键问题之一就是我们已经将其打包整合。

There are ways to access innovation and one of the question many ways of course, we have packaged it up.

我们与传统基准指数毫无相似之处。

We don't look anything like a traditional benchmark.

因此如果他们正在分散投资，我们就是非常好的多元化来源，尤其是在尝试获取创新领域敞口时。

So if they're diversifying, we're a very good source of diversification especially in trying to get exposure to innovation.

我们还拥有一支风险投资基金。

We also have a venture fund.

散户投资者经常问我的问题之一曾经是：为什么我们不能进入私募市场？

One of the questions I get regularly from retail investors used to be, why can't we access the private markets?

我们对这些技术的了解比大多数正在收购它们的机构更深入。

We know more about those technologies than most of the institutions who are buying them.

他们根本一无所知。

They have no idea.

我们对此充满热情。

We're passionate about it.

因此我们变得更加直言不讳，而本届政府也无疑正变得更加发声，并且越来越专注于这个特定理念——因为这是违背美国精神的。

And so we've gotten more vocal and this administration is certainly becoming more vocal and and and more more focused on this this particular idea because it is un American.

对吧？

Right?

你得见见这个

You have to meet this

每天都能用ChatGPT，但你买不了OpenAI的股票

use chat GPT every day, but you can't buy OpenAI.

没错

Exactly.

但你可以买彩票或赌体育比赛

But you can buy a lottery ticket or you can bet on sports.

这毫无意义

And it makes no sense.

对

Right.

我认为这种情况会改变，而且我觉得这届政府

And I do think it's going to change and I think this administration

应该怎么改变？

How should it change?

我们是否应该——我之前在播客里就主张过这个观点，相信你也讨论过

Should we just have and I've advocated for this before on the pod and I believe you've talked about it.

全国6%的人，6%是合格投资者

6% of the country, 6% are accredited.

还有一小部分人是合格购买者

You got a small number who are QPs.

我们是不是该设立一个测试？

Should we just have a test?

要知道，在这个国家，持枪、开车甚至理发都需要执照。

You know, you get a license to own a gun or drive a car, cut hair in this country.

为什么不直接设置一个简单的资格测试呢？

Why not just have a simple accreditation test?

你们理解分散投资的原理。

You understand diversification.

你们明白私有资产与公共资产的区别，能看懂资产负债表。

You understand private versus public assets, how to read a balance sheet.

这样不就立刻解决问题了吗？

Wouldn't that just solve the problem real quick?

我的意思是，我以前常说，现在投资界的做法就好比说'因为你收入不够或净资产不足，所以不能开车'。

I mean, I used to say, you know, it would be what we're doing in the investment world right now would be the equivalent of saying, you can't drive because you don't make enough money or you do not have enough net worth.

参加个考试吧。

Take a test.

参加个考试吧。

Take a test.

我们国家现在面临一个重大问题——财富两极分化。

And we we have this big question in the country about polarization of wealth.

全国50%-60%的人持有股票，但那些没有股票的人往往倾向于社会主义或福利救济。

5060% of the country has some exposure equities, but the people who don't, they tend to trend towards socialism or handouts.

或许他们觉得自己无缘参与我们的经历——我们遇见杰出创业者，参与公开和私募市场，能说'特斯拉还是私企时我就坐过它的FSD自动驾驶车'，或是'Coinbase/Uber未上市时我就关注过'。

Maybe they don't feel they're part of what we experience which is we meet great founders and you get to do public and private and we get to say, yeah, you know, I drove in a FSD car when Tesla was private or whatever it is and or I looked at Coinbase when it was private or Uber.

是啊。

Yeah.

我明白了。

I got the sense.

我想投入百分之一二进去。

I wanna put one or two percent into that.

是的。

Yes.

对。

Yeah.

这确实感觉非常不公平，不是吗？

It does feel profoundly unfair, doesn't it?

是的。

Yes.

是的。

Yes.

凯西，现在有很多市场信号都在亮绿灯。

Cassie, there's a lot of market signals right now that are flashing green.

也有很多市场信号在亮红灯。

There's a lot of market signals that are flashing red.

你是否觉得必须对所有情况都采取主动策略，还是说——

Do you feel that you have to position actively to all of those things or do you say, you know what?

我无法控制这些。

I can't control this.

我需要展望五年后的情况。

I need to look five years out.

那么你们如何管理风险，以及如何看待当前市场？

So how do you manage the risk and how do you view the markets today?

是的。

Yes.

关于风险问题，显然我们经常被问及，因为我们的投资组合波动性较大。

So the risk question, obviously, we get a lot because our portfolios are volatile.

它们与基准表现不同，当市场进入熊市阶段时，投资者往往会紧抱基准，而我们却在朝相反方向运作。

They don't look like the benchmarks and when markets get into a bearish period, investors tend to hug their benchmarks and we're moving in the opposite direction.

所以我想说，我们坚持自己的投资方式，这也是我们顾问所期望的。

So I just wanna say, we do what we do and, you know, that's what our advisers expect.

他们并不指望我们增持现金或采取其他措施。

They don't expect us to raise cash or or do anything.

他们可能会那样做——那是他们的决定。

They might that's their decision.

对吧？

Right?

就我们控制风险的方式而言，在熊市期间，我们会集中投资于最具信心的标的。

In terms of what we do to control risk, during during bear markets, we will concentrate towards our highest conviction names.

我们有一套评分体系，基于管理层素质、执行力、护城河（或准入门槛）、产品服务领导力、至关重要的估值，以及投资逻辑风险。

We have a scoring system based on management, execution, moat or barriers to entry, product service leadership, valuation importantly, and thesis risk.

根据这些评分，我们进行集中投资。

So with those scores, we concentrate.

在牛市期间——我确实认为我们正处于一个不断扩大的牛市中——我们倾向于分散投资，因为IPO活动重新活跃，同时我们对熊市期间抛售的部分公司获得了更多信息。

During bull markets, which I do believe we are in a bull market that is broadening out, we tend to diversify because the IPOs start appearing again and we have more information on some of the companies we've sold during the bear market.

给我们解读一下埃隆的万亿美元薪酬方案。

Give us the read on Elon's trillion dollar pay package.

你知道它最有趣的地方是什么吗？

You know what's so interesting about it?

这在我们推出的第一款车型上就发生了。

And this happened with the first model we put out.

我们每年都会发布一次特斯拉的模型，并设定五年后的价格目标。

We put out a model once a year of Tesla and with our price target five years out.

我们看了他的第一个方案后说，这看起来就像我们的模型。

We looked at his first package and we said, that looks like our model.

我们看了这个方案后说，这就像我们的模型，而我们的模型是

And we looked at this one and we said, that looks like our model and our model is

预测特斯拉市值将达到8.5到9万亿美元。

forecast as Tesla 8 and a half, 9,000,000,000,000.

嗯，没错。

Well, right.

我们设定的就是五年期限。

And we we put out there five years.

五年。

Five years.

是的。

Yeah.

所以我认为，如果他真能如预期般实现人形机器人量产，我们现在的估值还远远不够。

So I think if he delivers on humanoid robots the way he thinks he is, we don't have enough in there.

所以我们的目标价格是2600点。

So our price target is 2,600.

我认为今天的价格是3.30美元左右，大概

I think it's at $3.30 today, something like

这样。

that.

确实。

Exactly.

是的。

Yeah.

2600点。

2,600.

而且我们在人形机器人领域的布局非常有限。

And and we have very little for humanoid in.

但埃隆正在利用的是我提到的这种技术融合趋势。

But what Elon is capitalizing on is this convergence that I mentioned.

机器人技术、能源存储和人工智能的融合，在无人驾驶出租车领域的这种融合与人形机器人领域的融合几乎如出一辙。

Robotics, energy storage, and AI, that convergence in the robotaxi space is pretty much the same convergence in the humanoid robot space.

你们的模型是否将薪酬方案纳入考量？

Do you underwrite compensation as part of your model?

意思是当你分析这类薪酬方案时，如果与其他CEO如扎克伯格等人相比，他们的薪酬结构风格各异。

Meaning like when you look at a package like that, if you compare it to other CEOs, Zuck or whomever, different styles of compensation.

众所周知，贝索斯在IPO后就不再领取薪酬。

Bezos famously took no compensation post the IPO.

你如何看待将这一点作为2025年取得成果的激励因素或必要条件？

How do you think about that as a motivating factor or a necessary condition in 2025 to get results?

我认为这非常重要。

I think it's huge.

我是说，我希望有更多CEO能这么做。

I mean, I I wish more CEOs would do this.

埃隆也不会得到报酬，除非他达成这些里程碑。

Elon's not gonna be paid unless unless he reaches these milestones either.

所以我认为这对他很有激励作用。

So I think it's very motivating to him.

我觉得这也像是一种激励，让人志存高远，但要以第一性原理的方式实现。

I think it also, you know, it's kind of an incentive to, you know, shoot for the stars but do it in a very first principles way.

要知道，一切都基于物理学原理，一切都以里程碑为导向，他非常自律。

You know, everything's physics based and everything's milestone based and he's very disciplined.

如果人们不知道这点，他们应该知道。

If people do not know that, they should.

而当某个里程碑未达成时

And when a milestone misses

顺便说一句他正在

By the way he's in there on

车间里。

the floor.

最后一个快速提问。

Final quick question.

作为股票挑选者，你在意公司注册地吗？

As a stock picker, do you care where the companies are incorporated?

比如，你现在看特拉华州时会认为存在根本性商业风险吗？

Like, do you look at Delaware now and say there's fundamental business risk?

我需要某种程度上...或者说...你现在会劝这些公司重新在不同地方注册吗？

I need to sort of and or and or do you cajole these folks now to maybe reincorporate in different places?

我们不是激进投资者。

We're not an activist investor.

我必须非常谨慎地声明这一点。

I have to be very careful and say that.

我们正在撤出特拉华州。

We are moving out of Delaware.

你们自己的企业呢？

You as your own business.

为什么？

Why?

你不相信他们具有可预测性？

You don't trust them to be predictable?

是这个原因吗？

Is that the issue?

他们现在既不可预测又很激进？

They're not predictable now and they're activist?

激进。

Activist.

活动家。

Activist.

这是

It's

以一种奇怪的方式。

In a bizarre way.

当涉及到薪酬方案时，他们有什么权力凌驾于特斯拉股东之上，还有那些发起诉讼的股东们，两次。

Was business do they have overriding the shareholders of Tesla when it comes to a pay package and all those shareholder who did that drive by lawsuit Twice.

他们确实

They did

做了两次。

it twice.

是的。

Yes.

我是说，这太不可思议了。

I mean, it's unbelievable.

那家伙只持有10股。

That guy owned 10 shares.

他他做了20倍的收益，然后他就有权夺走

He he did a 20 act 20 bagger and then he's got the right to take away It's

就像杰克·卡尔西克做优步那样，凯西。

like Jake Calcic doing Uber, Kathy.

这有点像

It's kind of like

凯茜·伍德。

Kathy Wood.

凯茜·伍德。

Kathy Wood.

谢谢

Thank you

非常感谢你分享这么多知识。

so much for sharing so much knowledge.

不客气。

Of course.

你太棒了。

You're amazing.

非常感谢你抽出时间。

Thank you so much for taking the time.

谢谢。

Thank you.

很高兴见到你。

Great to see you.

谢谢。

Thank you.