本集简介
双语字幕
仅展示文本字幕，不包含中文音频；想边听边看，请使用 Bayt 播客 App。
3760万盎司白银，消失了。
37,600,000 ounces of silver, gone.
仅仅47天内，它们就从COMEX金库中消失了。
In just forty seven days, they disappeared from the COMEX vaults.
这是自1980年以来我们目睹的最大规模流失。
That's the biggest drain we've seen since 1980.
如果你知道1980年发生了什么，就会明白我们正面临危机。
And if you know what happened in 1980, you know we're in trouble.
那一年白银价格飙升至每盎司49美元，整个期货市场距离全面崩盘仅差几秒。
That's the year silver shot up to $49 an ounce, and the entire futures market came within seconds of a total collapse.
如今同样的警钟正在全球范围内敲响。
Now the same alarm bells are ringing all over the world.
韩国四大银行刚刚停止销售白银，不是暂停一天，也不是一周。
Four major banks in South Korea just stopped selling silver, not for a day, not for a week.
而是无限期停止。
They stopped indefinitely.
中国正在积极阻止本国公民购买实物金属。
China is actively blocking its own citizens from buying physical metals.
而此刻，市场上正发生着本不该出现的情况。
And right now, something is happening on the market that just shouldn't be possible.
今日交割的白银价格，竟高于明日交割的期货价格。
The price of silver for delivery, today, is higher than the price for a promise of silver tomorrow.
这种现象称为现货溢价。
It's called backwardation.
简单来说，这意味着人们宁愿现在支付更高价格立即拿到白银，也不愿等待。
But in plain English, it means people are willing to pay more to get their hands on it right now than to wait.
这根本不是投资行为。
That isn't investing.
这是恐慌情绪的开端。
That's the beginning of a panic.
这不仅仅是白银价格上涨那么简单。
This isn't just about the price of silver going up.
这是人类历史上反复上演的四阶段模式中的第三阶段。
This is stage three of a four stage pattern that is played out over and over again throughout human history.
当第四阶段来临时，价格将不再重要。
And when stage four hits, the price won't matter.
不再重要，因为届时无论出价多高都买不到。
It won't matter because you won't be able to get it at any price.
这种完全相同的模式此前已上演过三次。
Three times before, this exact pattern has unfolded.
三次，那些早期察觉的人创造了世代相传的财富。
Three times, the people who saw it coming early created generational wealth.
三次，其他人只能呆立原地，完全不明白发生了什么。
And three times, everyone else was left standing there just wondering what on earth had just happened.
等看完视频，你就会明白这个模式。
By the time you're done watching, you will understand this pattern.
你将清楚我们当前的处境，并理解亨特兄弟用170亿美元代价给世界上的'不该做什么'上的深刻一课。
You'll know exactly where we are right now, and you'll understand the $17,000,000,000 lesson the Hunt brothers taught the world about what not to do.
这一模式本身极其简单。
The pattern itself is brutally simple.
第一阶段是确立阶段。
Stage one is establishment.
此时，实物商品开始成为货币。
This is when a real physical commodity becomes money.
政府将其铸造成硬币，并用它来支持本国货币。
Governments mint it into coins, and they back their currency with it.
几十年来，价格一直保持稳定。
For decades, prices have been stable.
这是可预测的。
It's predictable.
所有人都信任这个体系。
Everyone trusts the system.
想想看。
Think about it.
直到1964年，你口袋里的每一枚10美分、25美分和半美元硬币几乎都是纯银的。
Until 1964, every dime, quarter, and half dollar in your pocket was almost pure silver.
你可以走进任何一家银行，递给他们一张纸币，然后换回真正的白银。
You could walk into any bank, hand them a paper dollar, and get real silver back.
这就是基石。
It was the bedrock.
然后进入第二阶段，操纵。
Then comes stage two, manipulation.
有人开始耍小聪明。
Someone gets clever.
他们意识到可以针对实物白银发行纸质债权。
They realize they can create paper claims on that physical metal.
他们发现出售白银的承诺远比处理沉重的实物更容易且更有利可图。
They figure out that selling a promise of silver is way easier and more profitable than handling the heavy stuff.
于是金库中每存放一盎司真银，他们就发行10份纸质合约，然后是50份，再到100份。
So for every one ounce of real silver sitting in a vault, they create 10 paper contracts, then 50, then a 100.
市场被这些纸质承诺淹没，白银价格开始下跌。
The market gets flooded with these paper promises, and the price of silver drops.
为什么？
Why?
因为看起来供应似乎是无限的。
Because it looks like there's an infinite supply.
但这只是幻觉，最终会导向第三阶段——挤兑。
But it's an illusion that leads to stage three, the squeeze.
这就是我们现在所处的阶段。
This is where we are now.
对实物白银的需求开始增长。
Demand for the real thing starts to grow.
人们开始觉醒。
People start waking up.
他们不再想要纸面欠条了。
They don't want the paper IOU anymore.
他们想要实物金属。
They want the physical metal.
他们开始涌向金库要求提货。
They start showing up at the vaults and asking for delivery.
金库开始逐渐枯竭。
The vaults begin to drain.
随后一个可怕的认知瞬间在市场上蔓延开来。
And then a horrifying realization spreads through the market all at once.
根本没有足够的实物白银来兑现所有纸面承诺。
There isn't enough real silver to cover all the paper promises.
恐慌由此爆发。
That's when panic sets in.
最后进入第四阶段：崩盘。
And finally, stage four, the break.
这就是终局。
This is the endgame.
纸面市场彻底崩溃。
The paper market completely collapses.
交易停止。
Trading stops.
系统瘫痪。
The system fails.
纸面合约价格归零。
The price for paper contracts goes to zero.
它们变得一文不值。
They become worthless.
但实物金属的价格却呈抛物线式上涨。
But the price for the physical metal, it goes parabolic.
价格直线飙升。
It goes vertical.
但价格几乎无关紧要，因为实物已变得难以获取。
But the price is almost irrelevant because it becomes unattainable.
持有实物的人将成为赢家。
The people holding the real physical stuff win.
其他人将痛苦地领悟到拥有实物和拥有承诺之间的区别。
Everyone else learns a very painful lesson about the difference between owning something real and owning a promise.
这就是为什么价格不再重要。
That's why the price won't matter.
当系统崩溃时，价格不复存在。
When the system breaks, there is no price.
只有你能实际获取的东西才有意义。
There's only what you can get your hands on.
我将用市场自身的数据向你证明，我们已深陷第三阶段。
I'm going to prove to you that we are deep in stage three, using the market's own data.
但首先，你必须明白为什么白银与地球上任何其他商品都截然不同。
But first, you have to understand why silver is completely different from any other commodity on the planet.
黄金很简单。
Gold is simple.
黄金就是货币。
Gold is money.
它存放在金库里。
It sits in a vault.
它看起来很美。
It looks pretty.
它不会被消耗殆尽。
It doesn't get used up.
白银则完全是另一回事。
Silver is a different animal entirely.
它具有双重属性。
It has a dual personality.
是的。
Yes.
六千年来，它一直是货币。
For six thousand years, it has been money.
但如今，它也是我们拥有的最关键工业材料。
But today, it is also the single most critical industrial material we have.
它堪称是现代科技的生命线。
It is literally the lifeblood of modern technology.
你手中的手机里满是银。
The phone in your hand is full of silver.
屋顶的太阳能板没有银就无法工作。
The solar panels on a roof can't work without silver.
你汽车、电视、电脑里的电子元件都需要银。
The electronics in your car, your TV, your computer, all need silver.
5G基站、医疗设备、卫星，甚至军用导弹。
Five g towers, medical equipment, satellites, even military missiles.
银。
Silver.
银。
Silver.
白银。
Silver.
定义我们文明的每一项技术都依赖它。
Every single piece of technology that defines our civilization depends on it.
而关键问题在于。
And here's the kicker.
我们即将耗尽它。
We are running out.
我们的消耗速度远远超过开采速度。
We are using it up far faster than we can dig it out of the ground.
2024年，我们预计将面临1.49亿盎司的供应缺口。
In 2024, we're on track for a 149,000,000 ounce deficit.
这已是全球白银连续第四年供不应求。
This is the fourth year in a row the world has used more silver than it produced.
一项大学研究发现，仅光伏产业到2050年就可能消耗全球85-98%的白银储备。
One university study found that the solar panel industry alone could consume between 8598% of all global silver reserves by the year 2050.
如果你觉得这个四阶段模式听起来像电影情节，让我来告诉你它有多真实。
Now if you think this four stage pattern sounds like something out of a movie, let me prove to you how real it is.
让我们聊聊两兄弟、两亿盎司白银，以及一个几乎摧毁整个金融体系的计划。
Let's talk about two brothers, 200,000,000 ounces of silver, and a plan that almost broke the entire financial system.
他们名叫纳尔逊和威廉·亨特。
Their names were Nelson and William Hunt.
他们是德克萨斯州的石油亿万富翁。
They were Texas oil billionaires.
1979年，他们预见到了危机。
And in 1979, they saw the writing on the wall.
当时通货膨胀率超过了13%。
Inflation was over 13%.
几年前政府已让美元脱离了金本位制。
The government had taken the dollar off the gold standard a few years earlier.
他们正确地预见到，纸币体系正在崩溃。
They believed, correctly, that paper money was collapsing.
于是他们开始大量买入白银，不是小打小闹。
So they started buying silver, not a little silver.
他们试图买断市面上所有的白银。
They tried to buy all the silver.
他们囤积了2亿盎司白银，其中一半是实物，一半是期货合约。
They accumulated 200,000,000 ounces, half of it physical, half of it in futures contracts.
银价随即暴涨。
The price exploded.
仅仅十二个月内，白银就从每盎司6美元飙升至近50美元。
In just twelve months, silver went from $6 an ounce to nearly $50 an ounce.
涨幅高达724%。
That's a 724 percent gain.
亨特兄弟一跃成为美国最富有的人。
The Hunt brothers became the richest men in America.
华尔街对此惊恐万分。
And Wall Street was absolutely terrified.
为什么？
Why?
因为亨特兄弟正在做这套系统设计之外的事。
Because the Hunts were doing the one thing the system isn't designed for.
他们不仅仅是在交易纸面合约。
They weren't just trading paper.
他们亲自到场要求实物白银的交割。
They were showing up and demanding delivery of the physical metal.
他们正在掏空银库。
They were draining the vaults.
商品交易所陷入恐慌。
The Comics Exchange was panicking.
如果亨特兄弟继续提货，交易所的白银将耗尽。
If the Hunts kept taking delivery, the Exchange would run out of silver.
整个体系将会崩溃。
The whole thing would fail.
于是交易所做了所有强势机构在失利时都会做的事
So the Exchange did what powerful institutions always do when they're losing.
他们在比赛中途改变了规则
They changed the rules in the middle of the game.
1980年1月7日，他们通过了所谓的'白银规则七号'
On 01/07/1980, they passed something called silver rule seven.
这条规则实质上规定：你们不能再买入白银
It essentially said, you can no longer buy silver.
你们只能持有现有仓位或进行平仓
You can only hold your position or sell it.
他们试图通过金融手段将亨特兄弟挤出市场，但银价仍在持续攀升
They were trying to financially freeze the Hunt brothers out of the market, but the price just kept climbing anyway.
于是交易所使出了最后的杀手锏
So the exchange pulled its final lever.
他们大幅提高保证金要求，使得隔夜持有期货合约的成本变得极其高昂
They jacked up the margin requirements, making it catastrophically expensive to hold a futures contract overnight.
这是一次直接的经济打击，旨在迫使亨特兄弟抛售。
It was a direct financial attack designed to force the Hunts to sell.
亨特兄弟需要数亿美元资金。
The Hunts needed hundreds of millions of dollars.
他们立即被迫抛售，随后其他人也恐慌性抛售。
Immediately, they were forced to sell, Then everyone else panicked and sold.
这导致了历史上被称为'白银星期四'的那一天。
It led to a day that went down in history as Silver Thursday.
白银价格从每盎司21美元暴跌至仅10美元。
Silver crashed from over $21 down to just $10.
仅一天之内，亨特兄弟就损失了数十亿美元。
In a single day, the Hunt brothers lost billions.
他们破产了。
They went bankrupt.
这个体系将他们逼至绝境，最终压垮了他们。
The system pushed them to the brink, and they broke.
但这个故事有个被众人遗忘的部分。
But here's the part of the story everyone forgets.
那些只是默默持有实物白银的人，那些没有参与纸面游戏的人，他们毫发无损。
The people who were just quietly holding physical silver, the ones who didn't play the paper games, they didn't lose a thing.
当所有混乱尘埃落定时，白银价格仍维持在每盎司10美元。
When all the chaos and dust settled, the price of silver was still $10 an ounce.
这几乎是亨特兄弟开始疯狂买入时的两倍。
That's almost double what it was when the Hunt brothers started their buying spree.
那些单纯买入实物白银并在风暴中坚守的人，依然赚得盆满钵满。
The people who simply bought the real metal and held on through the storm still made a fortune.
亨特兄弟失败的原因只有一个。
The Hunt brothers failed for one reason.
他们参与了纸面游戏。
They played the paper game.
他们使用杠杆，借入资金来控制白银的承诺。
They used leverage, borrowed money to control promises of silver.
但你无法改变你手中实际持有之物的规则。
But you can't change the rules on something you physically hold in your hand.
这个教训至关重要，因为我们正在目睹的正是同样的局面。
That lesson is critical because what we are watching unfold right now is the same setup.
只是这一次，规模更大。
Only this time, it's bigger.
这不是一次性事件。
This isn't a one off event.
这是一种模式。
It's a pattern.
这个系统似乎对小人物不利，大玩家总能在即将失败时改变规则。
The system seems rigged against the little guy, and the big players can just change the rules whenever they're about to lose.
那么如何在被操纵的游戏中获胜？
So how do you win a rigged game?
你必须比他们更懂游戏规则。
You have to understand the rules better than they do.
你必须彻底换一种玩法。
You have to play a different game entirely.
在我展示今天市场的惊人数据之前，你需要知道这种情况以前就发生过。
Before I show you the shocking data from today's market, you need to see that this has happened before.
还记得1971年尼克松关闭黄金兑换窗口吗？
Remember when Nixon closed the gold window back in 1971?
同样的故事。
It was the same story.
其他国家开始按照协议要求用美元兑换美国的黄金，但美国印发的美元已经超过了金库里的黄金储备。
Other countries started showing up asking to trade their US dollars for America's gold just like the agreement said, but The US had printed more dollars than it had gold in the vaults.
于是尼克松直接修改了规则。
So Nixon just changed the rules.
他违约了。
He defaulted.
他切断了美元与实体货币的最后联系。
He cut the dollar's final tie to real money.
接下来发生了什么？
What happened next?
黄金价格从每盎司35美元飙升至850美元。
The price of gold went from $35 an ounce to $850.
白银从1.4美元涨到了49美元。
Silver went from a dollar 40 to $49.
当实物支撑消失的那一刻，纸币失去了价值，而实物资产价格暴涨。
The moment the physical backing was gone, the paper lost its value, and the real stuff exploded.
2001年同样的故事发生在另一种金属——钯金身上。
It happened again in 2001 with another metal, palladium.
俄罗斯控制着全球大部分供应，他们突然停止了出口。
Russia controlled most of the world's supply, and they just stopped shipping it.
实物钯金从市场上消失了。
Physical palladium vanished from the market.
价格在两年内暴涨了263%。
The price spiked by 263% in two years.
押注价格下跌的纸面交易者被彻底清盘。
Paper traders who had bet on the price going down got wiped out.
他们卖出了根本无法兑现的金属承诺，而那些持有实物金属的人则变得极其富有。
They had sold promises for metal that they couldn't possibly deliver, but the people who held the physical metal, they became incredibly wealthy.
三个不同的例子，三种不同的金属，却是相同的模式和相同的结果。
Three different examples, three different metals, but the same pattern and the same outcome.
实物胜出，纸面落败。
Physical wins, paper loses.
那么在当前白银市场中，我们处于这个模式的哪个阶段？
So where are we right now in this pattern with silver?
现在让我们来逐一核对清单。
Now let's go through the checklist.
第一阶段，建立阶段。
Stage one, establishment.
这个阶段已经完成。
That's complete.
白银作为货币流通了超过150年。
For over a hundred and fifty years, silver was money.
直到1965年，美国硬币的含银量仍高达90%。
US coins were 90% silver right up until 1965.
随后政府将白银从硬币中移除。
Then the government took the silver out of the coins.
为什么？
Why?
因为硬币中的白银价值已超过了其面值。
Because the silver in the coin became worth more than the number stamped on it.
一角硬币的实际价值已不再等同于10美分。
A dime wasn't worth 10¢ anymore.
其中的白银价值达到了12至15美分。
The silver inside it was worth 12 than 15.
这本应成为对所有人的重大警示。
That should have been a giant red flag for everyone.
自由市场表明白银的价值高于政府定价。
The free market was saying silver was more valuable than the government was.
第二阶段，操控市场，这也已经完成了。
Stage two, manipulation, that's also complete.
白银一失去法定货币地位，华尔街就把它变成了赌场。
As soon as silver stopped being official money, Wall Street turned it into a casino.
他们创造了大量纸面产品——期货合约、ETF、凭证，应有尽有。
They created a mountain of paper products, futures contracts, ETFs, certificates, you name it.
每一盎司真实存在的实体白银，他们就对应发行了50份、甚至100份纸面权益。
For every one ounce of real, physical silver that exists, they created 50, maybe even a 100 paper claims for it.
想想最大的白银ETF——SLV。
Think about the largest silver ETF, SLV.
它宣称替投资者持有4.4亿盎司白银。
It claims to hold 440,000,000 ounces of silver for investors.
但如果你细读那些枯燥的法律文件细则，就会发现他们留了个后门。
But if you read the fine print, the really boring legal documents, they have a little escape hatch.
条款写明，如果实物白银供应不足，他们可以用现金结算你的合约。
It says they can settle your contract in cash if physical silver isn't available.
好好想想这一点。
Let that sink in.
你以为自己拥有白银，但实际上可能只拥有一个承诺——当他们找不到实物时，用美元支付给你。
You think you own silver, but what you might really own is just a promise to get paid dollars if they can't find the metal.
看出问题了吗？
See the problem?
那些本该为整个期货市场提供支撑的金库，目前仅登记了4300万盎司可供交割的白银。
The vaults that are supposed to back the entire futures market only have 43,000,000 ounces registered for delivery.
这就是真正能覆盖数亿盎司合约的全部存量。
That's all that's truly available to cover hundreds of millions of ounces worth of contracts.
几十年来，这种纸面游戏运作良好，但现在开始崩溃了，这就引出了第三阶段——挤兑。
For decades, this paper game worked just fine, but now it's starting to break, which brings us to stage three, the squeeze.
这一幕正在我们眼前实时上演。
This is happening right now as we speak.
过去一年间，Comex仓库中可供交割的白银存量已减半。
In just the last year, the amount of silver available for delivery in the Comex vaults has been cut in half.
这是一场针对实物白银的银行挤兑，而且速度越来越快。
It's a bank run on physical metal, and it's getting faster.
去年11月某天，单日就提取了630万盎司白银。
One day last November, 6,300,000 ounces were pulled out in a single day.
随后韩国四大银行在同一天集体暂停了白银销售。
Then four major banks in South Korea all suspended silver sales on the same day.
这些可不是小城镇的信用合作社。
These aren't small town credit unions.
这些都是资金渠道无限的跨国银行。
These are global banks with unlimited access to money.
如果他们都没法获取足够的白银卖给客户，这说明了实物市场实际有多紧张？
If they can't get their hands on enough silver to sell to their customers, what does that tell you about how tight the physical market really is?
中国方面也在采取行动。
China is making moves too.
他们几乎禁止本国公民通过银行购买贵金属。
They've made it nearly impossible for their own citizens to buy precious metals through banks.
他们为何要这样做？
Why would they do that?
因为国家正在为自己囤积这些金属。
Because the state is hoarding it for itself.
他们正在为某些事情做准备。
They're preparing for something.
与此同时，在印度，人们正以创纪录的数量购买白银。
Meanwhile, in India, people are buying silver in record amounts.
他们曾目睹过货币崩溃。
They've seen currencies collapse before.
他们知道会发生什么。
They know what happens.
他们明白当纸币失效时，实物金属才是最终的保障。
They know that physical metal is the ultimate protection when paper money fails.
除此之外，还有势不可挡的工业需求。
On top of all this, you have unstoppable industrial demand.
太阳能板、电动汽车、5G技术、人工智能数据中心。
Solar panels, electric cars, five g, AI data centers.
每一项重大技术趋势每年都在消耗越来越多的白银。
Every major technological trend is consuming more and more silver every single year.
我们的消耗速度已经超过了开采速度，现在普通投资者终于开始醒悟了。
We are using it up faster than we can mine it, and now regular investors are finally waking up.
纸面价格正在被揭露为谎言。
The paper price is being exposed as a lie.
对实物金属的迫切需求正通过数据显现出来。
That desperation for physical metal is showing up in the numbers.
当你看到现货价格高于期货价格时，就是我们之前讨论过的现货溢价，这表示市场在尖叫着要求立即获得实物金属。
When you see spot prices trading above futures prices, that backwardation we talked about, that is the market screaming that it wants the metal now.
人们正在为即时交割支付溢价。
People are paying a premium for immediate delivery.
我们已深陷第三阶段。
We are deep in stage three.
挤压正在发生。
Squeeze is on.
第四阶段尚未到来。
Stage four hasn't hit yet.
但我们正站在门槛上，它可能已经开始了。
But we are standing right on the doorstep, and it may have already started.
就在去年，全球最大的交易所CME在午间暂停了交易。
Just last year, the CME, the biggest exchange in the world, halted trading midday.
官方理由是什么？
The official reason?
冷却系统故障。
A cooling failure.
一个日处理数万亿美元、拥有军用级基础设施的建筑竟出现冷却故障。
A cooling failure in a building with military grade infrastructure that handles trillions of dollars a day.
资深交易员会告诉你，当交易所在价格剧烈飙升时突然暂停交易，通常只意味着一件事。
Veteran traders will tell you when an exchange suddenly halts trading in the middle of a massive price spike, it usually means one thing.
某个巨头正陷入大麻烦。
Someone very big is in very big trouble.
那么接下来会发生什么？
So what happens next?
交易所被逼入绝境。
The exchange is cornered.
他们有两种选择。
They have two choices.
其一，他们可以像1980年对付亨特兄弟那样操作。
One, they can do what they did to the Hunt brothers back in 1980.
他们可以修改规则。
They can change the rules.
他们可以提高保证金、限制买家资格，甚至完全暂停交割。
They can jack up margins, limit who can buy, or even suspend delivery altogether.
第二，他们可以放任自由市场运行，眼睁睁看着银价飙升至天价。
Two, they can let the free market run its course and watch the price of silver go to the moon.
你认为他们会作何选择？
What do you think they'll choose?
他们永远会选择保护这个体系。
They will always choose to protect the system.
他们会试图控制局面。
They will try to control it.
但这就是他们面临的问题。
But here's their problem.
这次情况不同。
This time is different.
这次不仅仅是两个来自德州的亿万富翁能逼迫他们抛售。
This isn't just two billionaires from Texas who can bully them into selling.
这是一场全球性的运动。
This is a global movement.
德国和日本的工业巨头们实实在在地需要白银来制造汽车和太阳能板。
It's industrial giants in Germany and Japan who physically need silver to build cars and solar panels.
印度和中国数亿民众曾目睹本国货币崩溃，如今正购买银币来保护家人。
It's hundreds of millions of people in India and China who have seen their currencies fail before and are buying silver coins to protect their families.
各国央行乃至整个国家都在悄悄增加白银储备。
It's central banks and even entire nations quietly building up their stockpiles.
你不可能简单地通过一条规则就让全世界停下脚步。
You can't just pass a rule and tell the entire world to stop.
当第四阶段最终来临时，混乱将无可否认。
When stage four finally hits, the chaos will be undeniable.
交易暂停将成为常态。
Trading halts will become normal.
你一觉醒来，市场可能就直接关闭了。
You'll wake up, and the market will just be closed.
交割失败将在整个系统中引发连锁反应。
Delivery failures will cascade through the system.
人们会拿着纸质合约——那份金属承诺书出现，而金库经理只会耸耸肩。
People will show up with their paper contract, their promise of metal, and the vault manager will just shrug.
抱歉。
Sorry.
我们没货了。
We're out.
这次违约将引发连锁反应，一个接一个。
That failure will trigger another and another and another.
实物白银的溢价将暴涨。
The premiums on physical silver will explode.
你或许会在电视上看到官方报价是60美元，但真要买一枚实币试试。
You might see the official price on TV, say $60, but try to buy a real coin.
如果经销商还有存货，他们会开价80.9美元，甚至100美元。
Dealers, if they have any left, will be charging $80.90, maybe a $100.
最终，你将面临有价无市的局面。
Eventually, you won't be able to get it at any price.
纸面市场将完全冻结，而那些持有实物白银的人只需作壁上观，因为他们已经赢得了这场游戏。
The paper market will freeze completely, and the people who are holding the real physical metal will just be watching from the sidelines because they already won the game.
这不是胡乱猜测。
This isn't a wild guess.
这不是投机。
This isn't speculation.
这只是识别一个反复出现的模式。
This is simply recognizing a pattern that has repeated over and over again.
而现在，这个模式正在向我们发出强烈信号。
And right now, that pattern is screaming at us.
所以这里有个简单的行动指南。
So here is the simple playbook.
首先，你必须理解持有和投机之间的区别。
First, you have to understand the difference between owning and speculating.
交易纸面合约和ETF来快速赚钱就是投机行为。
Trading paper contracts and ETFs to make a quick buck is speculation.
你是在他们的赌场里按他们的规则玩。
You're playing in their casino by their rules.
购买实物白银是一种保护。
Buying physical silver is protection.
它是对抗崩溃系统的保险。
It's insurance against a broken system.
为此只有一个选择——真正的金属，你能握在手里的实物，不是存放在你无法控制的金库里，不是屏幕上的数字，而是放在你自己能看见摸着的保险箱里。
For that, there's only one option, real metal, which you can hold in your hand, not in a vault you don't control, not a number on a screen, in your own safe where you can see it and touch it.
这才是真正的所有权。
That's real ownership.
其次，行动时机就是现在，趁你还能行动的时候。
Second, the time to act is now while you still can.
现在你还能以比现货价高出几美元的价格买到银币。
Right now, you can buy a silver coin for maybe a few dollars over the spot price.
这就是溢价。
That's the premium.
当恐慌真正开始时，溢价会涨到20美元，然后是50美元，再到100美元。
When the real panic starts, that premium will be $20, then 50, then a 100.
最终，你将无法以任何溢价买到，因为经销商将售罄，铸币厂会有长达一年的等候名单。
Eventually, you won't be able to find it at any premium because dealers will be sold out, and the mints will have year long waiting lists.
你将只能持有每天都在贬值的现金，无法将其兑换成保值的东西。
You'll be left holding cash that is losing its value every single day, unable to trade it for the one thing that's holding its value.
第三，专注于那些广为人知的品种。
Third, focus on what's recognizable.
你需要的是白银中的'可口可乐'，而不是那些无人知晓的小众品牌。
You want the Coca Cola of silver, not some craft brand nobody recognizes.
我们说的是政府铸造的硬币，比如美国银鹰币、加拿大枫叶币，或是知名精炼厂的简单银条。
We're talking about government minted coins like American Silver Eagles or Canadian Maple Leafs or simple silver bars from well known refiners.
不要追求花哨。
Don't get fancy.
不要购买溢价过高的稀有收藏品。
Don't buy rare collectibles with huge markups.
你需要的是纯银，且其形态要让全世界任何地方的人都能立即辨认并接受。
You want pure silver in a form that anyone anywhere in the world will immediately recognize and accept.
第四，这不是要你倾家荡产地豪赌。
Fourth, this isn't about betting the farm.
这是在打造一艘救生艇。
This is about building a lifeboat.
这是关于将你资产中的明智部分——也许是10%或15%——转化为实体保障。
It's about taking a smart portion of your assets, maybe 10 or 15%, and converting it into physical protection.
足够在危机来临时保护你的家人，但又不至于因意外变故而让你倾家荡产。
Enough that if this pattern plays out, your family is protected, but not so much that if something unexpected happens, you're financially ruined.
关键在于平衡。
It's about balance.
第五，正确存放它。
Fifth, store it correctly.
家中配备一个优质保险箱是最佳选择。
A good safe in your home is your best option.
购买实物贵金属的全部意义在于去除中间环节。
The entire point of buying physical metal is to remove the middleman.
是为了消除某些公司或银行横亘在你和你的资金之间的风险。
It's to get rid of the risk that some company or bank stands between you and your money.
别费尽周折后又重新引入另一个中间人。
Don't go through all that trouble just to put another middleman right back into the equation.
采取行动的时机窗口正在关闭。
The window to do this is closing.
不是因为炒作，也不是因为我在这么说。
Not because of hype, not because I'm saying so.
窗口关闭是因为数据表明了这一点。
It's closing because the data says so.
金库正在被掏空。
The vaults are draining.
银行正在抽身撤离。
The banks are backing away.
市场本身就在告诉你实物供应正在消失。
The market itself is telling you that the physical supply is disappearing.
你只需要愿意倾听。
You just have to be willing to listen.
历史上每一种纸币最终都失败了。
Every single paper currency in history has eventually failed.
无一例外。
All of them.
美元自1971年以来就失去了真正的支撑独自浮动。
The US dollar has been floating on its own with no real backing since 1971.
这已经超过五十年了。
That's over fifty years.
它是在透支时间。
It's living on borrowed time.
而你不能用印钞机解决这个问题。
And you can't solve this problem with a printing press.
你无法印刷白银。
You can't print silver.
你无法通过新政府政策创造白银。
You can't create it with a new government policy.
物理法则不在乎经济理论。
Physics doesn't care about economic theories.
地下的矿洞就是地下的矿洞。
A hole in the ground is a hole in the ground.
你现在比99%的人都更清晰地看到了白银市场的四阶段模式。
You now see the four stage pattern in the silver market more clearly than 99% of people out there.
但如果我告诉你这只是第一块多米诺骨牌呢？
But what if I told you this was just the first domino?
白银挤压并非主要事件。
The silver squeeze isn't the main event.
这只是金融体系中一个更严重病症的症状。
It's just a symptom of a much, much larger disease in the system.
展开剩余字幕（还有 328 条）
同样的四阶段模式——建立、操纵、挤压和崩溃——不仅发生在一种金属上。
This same four stage pattern, establishment, manipulation, squeeze, and break isn't just happening to one metal.
它正发生在我们的整个金融世界。
It's happening to our entire financial world.
你钱包里的美元，银行账户里的数字。
The US dollar is in your wallet, the numbers in your bank account.
本系列的下一个视频将揭示同样的模式如何为美元本身的最终崩溃铺路。
The next video in this series exposes how the same pattern is setting up for the final break of the dollar itself.
现在点击屏幕，我将向你展示政府自己的数据，证明挤压已经到来，以及为什么最终阶段比任何人告诉你的都要近得多。
Click on the screen now, and I'll show you the government's own data that proves the squeeze is already here and why the final stage is much closer than anyone is telling you.
标题：真正的原因。
Title, the real reason.
银行刚刚被禁止出售600万盎司白银。
Banks were just banned from selling silver 6,000,000 ounces of silver.
消失了。
Gone.
仅仅47天内，它们就从期货金库中消失了。
In just forty seven days, they disappeared from the comics vaults.
这是自1980年以来我们所见过的最大规模流失。
That's the biggest drain we've seen since 1980.
如果你知道1980年发生了什么，就会明白我们现在的处境有多危险。
And if you know what happened in 1980, you know we're in trouble.
那一年白银价格飙升至每盎司49美元，整个期货市场距离全面崩溃仅差几秒。
That's the year silver shot up to $49 an ounce, and the entire futures market came within seconds of a total collapse.
如今同样的警钟正在全球范围内敲响。
Now the same alarm bells are ringing all over the world.
韩国四大银行刚刚停止销售白银，不是暂停一天，也不是一周。
Four major banks in South Korea just stopped selling silver, not for a day, not for a week.
它们是无限期停止销售。
They stopped indefinitely.
中国正在积极阻止本国公民购买实物金属。
China is actively blocking its own citizens from buying physical metals.
此时此刻，市场上正在发生一件本不该可能发生的事情。
And right now, something is happening on the market that just shouldn't be possible.
今日交割的白银价格，竟高于承诺明日交割的白银价格。
The price of silver for delivery today is higher than the price for a promise of silver tomorrow.
这种现象被称为'现货溢价'。
It's called backwardation.
简单来说，这意味着人们宁愿支付更高价格立即拿到实物，也不愿等待。
But in plain English, it means people are willing to pay more to get their hands on it right now than to wait.
这根本不是投资行为。
That isn't investing.
这是一场恐慌的开端。
That's the beginning of a panic.
这不仅仅是白银价格上涨的问题。
This isn't just about the price of silver going up.
这是人类历史上反复重演的四阶段模式中的第三阶段。
This is stage three of a four stage pattern that is played out over and over again throughout human history.
当第四阶段来临时，价格将不再重要。
And when stage four hits, the price won't matter.
不再重要，因为届时无论出价多高都买不到。
It won't matter because you won't be able to get it at any price.
这种完全相同的模式此前已上演过三次。
Three times before this exact pattern has unfolded.
三次，那些早期洞察先机的人创造了世代传承的财富。
Three times, the people who saw it coming early created generational wealth.
而三次，其他人只能呆立原地，完全不明白究竟发生了什么。
And three times, everyone else was left standing there just wondering what on earth had just happened.
等你看完这段内容，就会理解这个模式。
By the time you're done watching, you will understand this pattern.
你将清楚我们当前的处境，并领悟亨特兄弟用170亿美元代价给世人上的'不该做什么'的一课。
You'll know exactly where we are right now, and you'll understand the $17,000,000,000 lesson the Hunt brothers taught the world about what not to do.
这个模式本身残酷得简单。
The pattern itself is brutally simple.
第一阶段是确立阶段。
Stage one is establishment.
这时实物商品开始成为货币。
This is when a real physical commodity becomes money.
政府将其铸造成硬币，并用它来支持本国货币。
Governments minted into coins, and they back their currency with it.
几十年来价格一直保持稳定。
For decades, prices have been stable.
这是可预测的。
It's predictable.
所有人都信任这个体系。
Everyone trusts the system.
想想看。
Think about it.
直到1964年，你口袋里的10美分、25美分和50美分硬币几乎都是纯银的。
Until 1964, every dime, quarter, and half dollar in your pocket was almost pure silver.
你可以走进任何一家银行，递给他们一张纸币，换回真正的白银。
You could walk into any bank, hand them a paper dollar, and get real silver back.
这是基石。
It was the bedrock.
然后进入第二阶段，操纵。
Then comes stage two, manipulation.
有人开始耍小聪明。
Someone gets clever.
他们意识到可以针对实物白银发行纸质债权。
They realize they can create paper claims on that physical metal.
他们发现出售白银承诺比处理沉重的实物要容易得多，利润也更高。
They figure out that selling a promise of silver is way easier and more profitable than handling the heavy stuff.
于是金库里每存放一盎司真银，他们就发行10份纸质合约，然后是50份，再到100份。
So for every one ounce of real silver sitting in a vault, they create 10 paper contracts, then 50, then a 100.
市场被这些纸面承诺淹没，白银价格随之下跌。
The market gets flooded with these paper promises, and the price of silver drops.
为什么？
Why?
因为这看起来像是无限供应，实则是个假象。
Because it looks like there's an infinite supply, but it's an illusion.
这就引出了第三阶段：挤兑。
That leads to stage three, the squeeze.
这正是我们现在所处的阶段。
This is where we are now.
对实物白银的需求开始增长。
Demand for the real thing starts to grow.
人们开始觉醒。
People start waking up.
他们不再想要纸面欠条了。
They don't want the paper IOU anymore.
他们要的是实物白银。
They want the physical metal.
他们开始出现在金库门口要求提货。
They start showing up at the vaults and asking for delivery.
金库开始被掏空。
The vaults begin to drain.
然后一个可怕的认知瞬间在市场蔓延开来。
And then a horrifying realization spreads through the market all at once.
根本没有足够的实物白银来兑现所有的纸面承诺。
There isn't enough real silver to cover all the paper promises.
恐慌就此爆发。
That's when panic sets in.
最后进入第四阶段：崩盘。
And finally, stage four, the break.
这就是终局。
This is the end game.
纸面市场彻底崩溃。
The paper market completely collapses.
交易停止。
Trading stops.
系统崩溃。
The system fails.
纸质合约价格归零。
The price for paper contracts goes to zero.
它们变得一文不值。
They become worthless.
但实物金属的价格呢？
But the price for the physical metal?
它呈抛物线式上涨。
It goes parabolic.
它呈垂直式上涨。
It goes vertical.
但价格几乎无关紧要，因为它变得遥不可及。
But the price is almost irrelevant because it becomes unattainable.
持有实物资产的人将成为赢家。
The people holding the real physical stuff win.
其他人将痛苦地认识到拥有实物与拥有承诺之间的区别。
Everyone else learns a very painful lesson about the difference between owning something real and owning a promise.
这就是为什么价格不再重要。
That's why the price won't matter.
当系统崩溃时，价格已不复存在。
When the system breaks, there is no price.
唯一重要的是你能实际获取到什么。
There's only what you can get your hands on.
我将用市场自身数据证明我们已深陷第三阶段。
I'm going to prove to you that we are deep in stage three using the market's own data.
但首先，你必须明白白银与地球上任何其他商品都截然不同。
But first, you have to understand why silver is completely different from any other commodity on the planet.
黄金则很简单。
Gold is simple.
黄金就是货币。
Gold is money.
它存放在金库里。
It sits in a vault.
它看起来很漂亮。
It looks pretty.
它不会被消耗掉。
It doesn't get used up.
白银则完全是另一回事。
Silver is a different animal entirely.
它具有双重属性。
It has a dual personality.
是的。
Yes.
六千年来，它一直是货币。
For six thousand years, it has been money.
但如今，它也是我们拥有的最关键工业材料。
But today, it is also the single most critical industrial material we have.
它堪称是现代科技的生命线。
It is literally the lifeblood of modern technology.
你手中的手机里满是银。
The phone in your hand is full of silver.
屋顶的太阳能板没有银就无法工作。
The solar panels on a roof can't work without silver.
你车里的电子设备、电视、电脑，全都需要银。
The electronics in your car, your TV, your computer, all need silver.
5G基站、医疗设备、卫星，甚至军用导弹。
Five g towers, medical equipment, satellites, even military missiles.
银，银，银。
Silver, silver, silver.
定义我们文明的每一项技术都依赖于它。
Every single piece of technology that defines our civilization depends on it.
而最令人震惊的是
And here's the kicker.
我们正在耗尽银资源
We are running out.
我们消耗银的速度远超过开采速度
We are using it up far faster than we can dig it out of the ground.
2024年预计将出现1.49亿盎司的供应缺口
In 2024, we're on track for a 149,000,000 ounce deficit.
这已是全球白银消费量连续第四年超过产量
This is the fourth year in a row the world has used more silver than it produced.
一项大学研究发现，仅光伏产业到2050年就可能消耗全球85%-98%的白银储备
One university study found that the solar panel industry alone could consume between 8598% of all global silver reserves by the year 2050.
如果你觉得这种四阶段模式听起来像电影情节，让我告诉你它有多真实
Now if you think this four stage pattern sounds like something out of a movie, let me prove to you how real it is.
让我们聊聊两兄弟、2亿盎司白银和一个几乎摧毁整个金融体系的计划
Let's talk about two brothers, 200,000,000 ounces of silver, and a plan that almost broke the entire financial system.
他们名叫纳尔逊和威廉·亨特。
Their names were Nelson and William Hunt.
他们是德克萨斯州的石油亿万富翁。
They were Texas oil billionaires.
1979年时，他们预见到了危机。
And in 1979, they saw the writing on the wall.
当时通货膨胀率超过13%。
Inflation was over 13%.
政府几年前已让美元脱离金本位。
The government had taken the dollar off the gold standard a few years earlier.
他们正确地认为纸币正在崩溃，于是开始大量买入白银。
They believed correctly that paper money was collapsing, so they started buying silver, not a little silver.
他们试图买下所有的白银。
They tried to buy all the silver.
他们累计持有2亿盎司，其中一半是实物白银，一半是期货合约。
They accumulated 200,000,000 ounces, half of it physical, half of it in futures contracts.
价格暴涨。
The price exploded.
仅仅十二个月内，白银价格从每盎司6美元飙升至近50美元。
In just twelve months, silver went from $6 an ounce to nearly $50 an ounce.
涨幅高达724%。
That's a 724% gain.
亨特兄弟一跃成为美国首富，华尔街对此惊恐万分。
The Hunt brothers became the richest man in America, and Wall Street was absolutely terrified.
为什么？
Why?
因为亨特兄弟的行为彻底突破了金融体系的预设框架。
Because the Hunts were doing the one thing the system isn't designed for.
他们不仅仅是在交易纸面合约。
They weren't just trading paper.
他们现身要求实物白银的交付。
They were showing up and demanding delivery of the physical metal.
他们正在掏空银库。
They were draining the vaults.
商品交易所陷入恐慌。
The Comics Exchange was panicking.
如果亨特兄弟继续提货，交易所将耗尽白银储备。
If the Hunts kept taking delivery, the Exchange would run out of silver.
整个体系将会崩溃。
The whole thing would fail.
于是交易所采取了当权机构在失利时惯用的手段。
So the Exchange did what powerful institutions always do when they're losing.
他们在游戏中途修改了规则。
They changed the rules in the middle of the game.
1980年1月7日，他们通过了一项名为'白银规则七号'的规定。
On 01/07/1980, they passed something called silver rule seven.
该规定实质上宣告：'你们不能再购买白银了。'
It essentially said, you can no longer buy silver.
你只能持有或卖出你的头寸。
You can only hold your position or sell it.
他们试图从经济上冻结亨特兄弟，将其逐出市场，但银价仍在持续攀升。
They were trying to financially freeze the Hunt brothers out of the market, but the price just kept climbing anyway.
于是交易所使出了最后的杀手锏。
So the exchange pulled its final lever.
他们大幅提高保证金要求，使得隔夜持有期货合约的成本变得极其高昂。
They jacked up the margin requirements, making it catastrophically expensive to hold a futures contract overnight.
这是一次直接的经济打击，旨在迫使亨特家族抛售。
It was a direct financial attack designed to force the Hunts to sell.
亨特家族需要数亿美元资金。
The Hunts needed hundreds of millions of dollars.
他们被迫立即抛售，随后引发市场恐慌性抛售。
Immediately, they were forced to sell, then everyone else panicked and sold.
这导致了历史上著名的'白银星期四'事件。
It led to a day that went down in history as Silver Thursday.
白银价格在一天之内从21美元暴跌至仅10美元。
Silver crashed from over $21 down to just $10 in a single day.
亨特兄弟损失了数十亿美元。
The Hunt brothers lost billions.
他们破产了。
They went bankrupt.
这个体系将他们逼至绝境。
The system pushed them to the brink.
他们崩溃了。
They broke.
但这个故事里有个被所有人遗忘的部分。
But here's the part of the story everyone forgets.
那些只是默默持有实物白银的人，那些没有参与纸面游戏的人，他们毫发无损。
The people who were just quietly holding physical silver, the ones who didn't play the paper games, they didn't lose a thing.
当所有混乱尘埃落定后，白银价格仍维持在每盎司10美元。
When all the chaos and dust settled, the price of silver was still $10 an ounce.
这几乎是亨特兄弟开始疯狂购买时的两倍价格。
That's almost double what it was when the Hunt brothers started their buying spree.
那些单纯购买实物白银并坚守度过风暴的人仍然赚得盆满钵满。
The people who simply bought the real metal and held on through the storm still made a fortune.
亨特兄弟失败的原因只有一个。
The Hunt brothers failed for one reason.
他们参与了纸面游戏。
They played the paper game.
他们使用杠杆，借入资金来控制白银的承诺，但你无法改变你手中实际持有的东西的规则。
They used leverage, borrowed money to control promises of silver, but you can't change the rules on something you physically hold in your hand.
这个教训至关重要，因为我们正在目睹的正是同样的局面。
That lesson is critical because what we are watching unfold right now is the same setup.
只是这一次，规模更大。
Only this time, it's bigger.
这不是一次性事件。
This isn't a one off event.
这是一种模式。
It's a pattern.
这个系统似乎被操纵来对付小人物，而大玩家们总能在即将输掉时随意改变规则。
The system seems rigged against the little guy, and the big players can just change the rules whenever they're about to lose.
那么，如何在一个被操纵的游戏中获胜？
So how do you win a rigged game?
你必须比他们更懂规则，并且彻底换一种玩法。
You have to understand the rules better than they do, and you have to play a different game entirely.
在我向你展示今日市场的惊人数据前，你需要明白这种情况以前就发生过。
Before I show you the shocking data from today's market, you need to see that this has happened before.
还记得尼克松在1971年关闭黄金兑换窗口的事吗？
Remember when Nixon closed the gold window back in 1971?
同样的故事。
It was the same story.
其他国家开始按照协议要求，用美元兑换美国的黄金。
Other countries started showing up asking to trade their US dollars for America's gold, just like the agreement said.
但美国印制的美元数量已远超其金库中的黄金储备。
But The US had printed more dollars than it had gold in the vaults.
于是尼克松直接修改了规则。
So Nixon just changed the rules.
他违约了。
He defaulted.
他切断了美元与实体货币的最后纽带。
He cut the dollar's final tie to real money.
接下来发生了什么？
What happened next?
黄金价格从每盎司35美元飙升至850美元。
The price of gold went from $35 an ounce to $850.
白银从1.4美元涨到49美元。
Silver went from a dollar 40 to $49.
当实物支撑消失的那一刻，纸币贬值，而真正的硬通货价格暴涨。
The moment the physical backing was gone, the paper lost its value, and the real stuff exploded.
2001年，同样的情形再次发生在另一种金属——钯金身上。
It happened again in 2001 with another metal, palladium.
俄罗斯掌控了全球大部分供应，却突然停止了出货。
Russia controlled most of the world's supply, and they just stopped shipping it.
实物钯金从市场上消失了。
Physical palladium vanished from the market.
价格在两年内暴涨了63%。
The price spiked too by 63% in two years.
押注价格下跌的纸面交易者血本无归。
Paper traders who had bet on the price going down got wiped out.
他们卖出了根本无法兑现的金属空头合约。
They had sold promises for metal that they couldn't possibly deliver.
但持有实物金属的人，却因此获得了惊人的财富。
But the people who held the physical metal, they became incredibly wealthy.
三个不同的案例，三种不同的金属，却遵循着相同的模式与结局。
Three different examples, Three different metals, but the same pattern and the same outcome.
实物为王，纸上谈兵必败。
Physical wins, paper loses.
那么白银目前处于这个模式的哪个阶段？
So where are we right now in this pattern with silver?
让我们逐项核对清单。
Let's go through the checklist.
第一阶段，确立阶段。
Stage one, establishment.
这一阶段已经完成。
That's complete.
一百五十多年来，白银一直是货币。
For over a hundred and fifty years, silver was money.
直到1965年，美国硬币的含银量仍高达90%。
US coins were 90% silver right up until 1965.
随后政府将白银从硬币中移除。
Then the government took the silver out of the coins.
为什么？
Why?
因为硬币中的白银价值超过了其面值。
Because the silver in the coin became worth more than the number stamped on it.
一角硬币不再值10美分了。
A dime wasn't worth 10¢ anymore.
里面的白银价值先是12美分，后来涨到15美分。
The silver inside it was worth 12, then 15.
这本该是给所有人的一个巨大危险信号。
That should have been a giant red flag for everyone.
自由市场表明白银比政府认为的更有价值。
The free market was saying silver was more valuable than the government was.
第二阶段，操纵。
Stage two, manipulation.
这也已经完成。
That's also complete.
一旦白银不再是法定货币，华尔街就把它变成了赌场。
As soon as silver stopped being official money, Wall Street turned it into a casino.
他们创造了堆积如山的纸面产品——期货合约、ETF、凭证，应有尽有。
They created a mountain of paper products, futures contracts, ETFs, certificates, you name it.
每一盎司真实存在的实物白银，他们就为其创造了50份、甚至可能100份的纸面债权。
For every one ounce of real physical silver that exists, they created 50, maybe even a 100 paper claims for it.
想想最大的白银ETF——SLV。
Think about the largest silver ETF, SLV.
它声称替投资者持有4.4亿盎司白银。
It claims to hold 440,000,000 ounces of silver for investors.
但如果你细读那些枯燥的法律文件细则，会发现他们留了后路。
But if you read the fine print, the really boring legal documents, they have a little escape hatch.
条款写明：如果实物白银供应不足，他们可以用现金结算你的合约。
It says they can settle your contract in cash if physical silver isn't available.
好好想想这意味着什么。
Let that sink in.
你以为自己拥有白银，但实际上你可能只拥有一个承诺——当他们找不到实物白银时，用美元支付给你。
You think you own silver, but what you might really own is just a promise to get paid dollars if they can't find the metal.
看出问题了吗？
See the problem?
那些本应支撑整个期货市场的金库，目前仅有4300万盎司白银登记可供交割。
The vaults that are supposed to back the entire futures market only have 43,000,000 ounces registered for delivery.
这就是真正可用于覆盖数亿盎司合约的全部存量。
That's all that's truly available to cover hundreds of millions of ounces worth of contracts.
几十年来，这种纸面游戏一直运作良好，但现在开始崩溃了，这就引出了第三阶段——挤压。
For decades, this paper game worked just fine, but now it's starting to break, which brings us to stage three, the squeeze.
这一幕此刻正在我们眼前上演。
This is happening right now as we speak.
仅过去一年间，Comix金库中可供交割的白银数量就减少了一半。
In just the last year, the amount of silver available for delivery in the Comix Vaults has been cut in half.
这是一场针对实物白银的挤兑，而且速度正在加快。
It's a bank run on physical metal, and it's getting faster.
去年11月某天，单日就提取了630万盎司白银。
One day last November, 6,300,000 ounces were pulled out in a single day.
随后韩国四大银行在同一天全部暂停了白银销售。
Then four major banks in South Korea all suspended silver sales on the same day.
这些可不是小镇上的信用合作社。
These aren't small town credit unions.
这些都是资金渠道无限的跨国银行。
These are global banks with unlimited access to money.
如果他们都没法获得足够的白银卖给客户，这难道不说明实物市场的供应有多紧张吗？
If they can't get their hands on enough silver to sell to their customers, what does that tell you about how tight the physical market really is?
中国也在采取行动。
China is making moves too.
他们几乎禁止了本国公民通过银行购买贵金属。
They've made it nearly impossible for their own citizens to buy precious metals through banks.
他们为何要这么做？
Why would they do that?
因为国家在为自己囤积。
Because the state is hoarding it for itself.
他们正在为某事做准备。
They're preparing for something.
与此同时，在印度，人们正以创纪录的数量购买白银。
Meanwhile, in India, people are buying silver in record amounts.
他们曾目睹货币崩溃。
They've seen currencies collapse before.
他们知道会发生什么。
They know what happens.
他们明白当纸币失效时，实物金属才是最终的保障。
They know that physical metal is the ultimate protection when paper money fails.
除此之外，还有势不可挡的工业需求：太阳能板、电动汽车、5G、人工智能数据中心。
On top of all this, you have unstoppable industrial demand, solar panels, electric cars, five g, AI data centers.
每一项重大技术趋势都在逐年消耗越来越多的白银。
Every major technological trend is consuming more and more silver every single year.
我们的消耗速度已经超过了开采速度。
We are using it up faster than we can mine it.
现在普通投资者终于开始醒悟了。
And now regular investors are finally waking up.
纸面价格正被揭露为一个谎言。
The paper price is being exposed as a lie.
这种对实物金属的渴望在数据中显现出来。
That desperation for physical metal is showing up in the numbers.
当你看到现货价格高于期货价格时，就是我们之前讨论过的倒挂现象，这实际上是市场在尖叫着要求立即获得金属。
When you see spot prices trading above futures prices, the backwardation we talked about, that is the market screaming that it wants the metal now.
人们正在为即时交割支付溢价。
People are paying a premium for immediate delivery.
我们已经深陷第三阶段。
We are deep in stage three.
挤压行情已经开始了。
The squeeze is on.
第四阶段尚未到来，但我们已站在门槛上。
Stage four hasn't hit yet, but we are standing right on the doorstep.
而且它可能已经开始了。
And it may have already started.
就在去年，全球最大的交易所芝加哥商品交易所(CME)在午间突然暂停交易。
Just last year, the CME, the biggest exchange in the world, halted trading midday.
官方理由是什么？
The official reason?
冷却系统故障。
A cooling failure.
一个每天处理数万亿美元交易、拥有军用级基础设施的建筑竟出现冷却故障。
A cooling failure in a building with military grade infrastructure that handles trillions of dollars a day.
资深交易员会告诉你，当交易所在价格暴涨时突然暂停交易，通常只意味着一件事。
Veteran traders will tell you when an exchange suddenly halts trading in the middle of a massive price spike, it usually means one thing.
某个巨头正陷入大麻烦。
Someone very big is in very big trouble.
那么接下来会发生什么？
So what happens next?
交易所被逼入绝境。
The exchange is cornered.
他们面临两个选择。
They have two choices.
第一，他们可以像1980年对付亨特兄弟那样做。
One, they can do what they did to the Hunt brothers back in 1980.
他们可以修改规则。
They can change the rules.
他们可以提高保证金、限制购买资格，甚至完全暂停交割。
They can jack up margins, limit who can buy, or even suspend delivery altogether.
第二，他们可以放任自由市场运行，看着白银价格一飞冲天。
Two, they can let the free market run its course and watch the price of silver go to the moon.
你认为他们会怎么选？
What do you think they'll choose?
他们总是会选择保护这个体系。
They will always choose to protect the system.
他们会试图控制局面。
They will try to control it.
但这就是他们的问题所在。
But here's their problem.
这次情况不同了。
This time is different.
这不仅仅是两个来自德克萨斯州的亿万富翁能逼迫他们出售。
This isn't just two billionaires from Texas who can bully them into selling.
这是一场全球性的运动。
This is a global movement.
德国和日本的工业巨头们实实在在地需要白银来制造汽车和太阳能板。
It's industrial giants in Germany and Japan who physically need silver to build cars and solar panels.
印度和中国数亿民众曾目睹本国货币崩溃，现在正购买银币以保护家人。
It's hundreds of millions of people in India and China who have seen their currencies fail before and are buying silver coins to protect their families.
这是各国央行乃至整个国家都在悄悄增加储备。
It's central banks and even entire nations quietly building up their stockpiles.
你不能简单地通过一条规则就让全世界都停下来。
You can't just pass a rule and tell the entire world to stop.
当第四阶段最终来临时，混乱将无可否认。
When stage four finally hits, the chaos will be undeniable.
交易暂停将成为常态。
Trading halts will become normal.
你醒来时，市场可能已经关闭。
You'll wake up, and the market will just be closed.
交割失败将在整个系统中蔓延。
Delivery failures will cascade through the system.
人们会拿着纸质合约——那些金属的承诺出现，而金库经理只会耸耸肩。
People will show up with their paper contract, their promise of metal, and the vault manager will just shrug.
抱歉。
Sorry.
我们没货了。
We're out.
这次违约将引发一连串的连锁反应。
That failure will trigger another and another and another.
实物白银的溢价将会暴涨。
The premiums on physical silver will explode.
你可能会在电视上看到官方报价是60美元，但实际购买一枚真币时。
You might see the official price on TV, say $60, but try to buy a real coin.
经销商如果有存货的话，会开价80.9美元，甚至100美元。
Dealers, if they have any left, will be charging $80.90, maybe a $100.
最终，你将无法以任何价格买到它。
Eventually, you won't be able to get it at any price.
纸白银市场将完全冻结，而那些持有实物白银的人只需作壁上观，因为他们早已胜券在握。
The paper market will freeze completely, and the people who are holding the real physical metal will just be watching from the sidelines because they already won the game.
这并非无端猜测。
This isn't a wild guess.
这不是猜测。
This isn't speculation.
这只是识别一个反复出现的模式。
This is simply recognizing a pattern that has repeated over and over again.
而现在，这个模式正对我们发出强烈信号。
And right now, that pattern is screaming at us.
以下是简单的行动指南。
So here's the simple playbook.
首先，你必须理解持有与投机的区别。
First, you have to understand the difference between owning and speculating.
交易纸质合约和ETF快速获利属于投机行为。
Trading paper contracts and ETFs to make a quick buck is speculation.
你是在按照他们的规则玩他们的赌场游戏。
You're playing in their casino by their rules.
购买实物白银才是真正的保护。
Buying physical silver is protection.
这是对崩溃系统的保险。
It's insurance against a broken system.
为此只有一个选择，真正的金属，你可以握在手中的那种。
For that, there's only one option, real metal, which you can hold in your hand.
不是在你无法控制的保险库里，不是屏幕上的数字，而是在你自己能看见摸得着的保险箱里。
Not in a vault you don't control, not a number on a screen, in your own safe where you can see it and touch it.
这才是真正的所有权。
That's real ownership.
其次，行动时机就是现在，趁你还能行动的时候。
Second, the time to act is now while you still can.
现在，你只需以略高于现货价几美元就能买到一枚银币。
Right now, you can buy a silver coin for maybe a few dollars over the spot price.
这就是溢价部分。
That's the premium.
当真正的恐慌开始时，溢价会达到20美元，然后是50美元，最终是100美元。
When the real panic starts, that premium will be $20, then 50, then a 100.
最终，你将无法以任何溢价买到白银，因为经销商将售罄，铸币厂会有长达一年的等候名单。
Eventually, you won't be able to find it at any premium because dealers will be sold out, and the mints will have year long waiting lists.
你只能持有每天都在贬值的现金，却无法将其兑换成保值的东西。
You'll be left holding cash that is losing its value every single day, unable to trade it for the one thing that's holding its value.
第三，专注于公认的产品。
Third, focus on what's recognizable.
你需要的是像可口可乐那样家喻户晓的白银品牌，而非无人知晓的小众产品。
You want the Coca Cola of silver, not some craft brand nobody recognizes.
我们说的是政府铸造的硬币，比如美国银鹰币、加拿大枫叶币，或是知名精炼厂的简单银条，别追求花哨。
We're talking about government minted coins like American Silver Eagles or Canadian Maple Leafs or simple silver bars from well known refiners, don't get fancy.
不要购买溢价过高的稀有收藏品。
Don't buy rare collectibles with huge markups.
你需要的是全球各地都能立即识别和接受的纯银形式。
You want pure silver in a form that anyone anywhere in the world will immediately recognize and accept.
第四，这不是要孤注一掷。
Fourth, this isn't about betting the farm.
这是在打造一艘救生艇。
This is about building a lifeboat.
这是关于将你资产中的一小部分（比如10%或15%）进行明智配置，转化为实物保障。
It's about taking a smart portion of your assets, maybe 10 or 15%, and converting it into physical protection.
确保如果这种趋势成真时你的家人能得到保护，但又不至于因意外情况而陷入财务困境。
Enough that if this pattern plays out, your family is protected, but not so much that if something unexpected happens, you're financially ruined.
关键在于平衡。
It's about balance.
第五，正确储存。
Fifth, store it correctly.
家中配备优质保险柜是最佳选择。
A good safe in your home is your best option.
购买实物贵金属的核心意义就是去除中间环节。
The entire point of buying physical metal is to remove the middleman.
这是为了消除某些公司或银行横亘在你和你的财富之间的风险。
It's to get rid of the risk that some company or bank stands between you and your money.
别费尽周折后又把另一个中间人重新引入这个等式。
Don't go through all that trouble just to put another middleman right back into the equation.
采取行动的窗口期正在关闭。
Window to do this is closing.
不是因为炒作，也不是因为我在这么说。
Not because of hype, not because I'm saying so.
窗口关闭是因为数据如此显示——金库正在枯竭，银行正在退出，市场本身就在告诉你实物供应正在消失。
It's closing because the data says so, the vaults are draining, the banks are backing away, the market itself is telling you that the physical supply is disappearing.
你只需要愿意倾听。
You just have to be willing to listen.
历史上每一种纸币最终都崩溃了。
Every single paper currency in history has eventually failed.
无一例外。
All of them.
自1971年以来，美元就一直在没有任何实质支撑的情况下独自浮动。
The US dollar has been floating on its own with no real backing since 1971.
已经超过五十年了。
It's over fifty years.
它只是在苟延残喘，而印钞机解决不了这个问题。
It's living on borrowed time, and you can't solve this problem with a printing press.
银是印不出来的。
Can't print silver.
你无法通过新政府政策创造白银。
You can't create it with a new government policy.
物理法则不在乎经济理论。
Physics doesn't care about economic theories.
地下的矿洞就是地下的矿洞。
A hole in the ground is a hole in the ground.
你现在比99%的人都更清晰地看到了白银市场的四阶段模式。
You now see the four stage pattern in the silver market more clearly than 99% of people out there.
但如果我告诉你这只是第一块多米诺骨牌呢？
But what if I told you this was just the first domino?
白银挤压并非主要事件。
The silver squeeze isn't the main event.
它只是体系中一个更庞大病症的表象。
It's just a symptom of a much, much larger disease in the system.
同样的四阶段模式——建立、操纵、挤压、崩溃——不只发生在一种金属上。
The same four stage pattern, establishment, manipulation, squeeze, break, isn't just happening to one metal.
它正在我们整个金融世界发生。
It's happening to our entire financial world.
美元就在你的钱包里。
The US dollar is in your wallet.
数字显示在你的银行账户上。
The number's in your bank account.
本系列的下一个视频将揭示同样的模式如何为美元自身的最终崩溃埋下伏笔。
The next video in this series exposes how this same pattern is setting up for the final break of the dollar itself.
现在点击屏幕，我将向你展示政府自己的数据，证明挤压已经到来，以及为什么最终阶段比任何人告诉你的都要近得多。
Click on the screen now, and I'll show you the government's own data that proves the squeeze is already here and why the final stage is much closer than anyone is telling you.
关于 Bayt 播客
Bayt 提供中文+原文双语音频和字幕，帮助你打破语言障碍，轻松听懂全球优质播客。