Netflix 对战 Paramount（第442集）

2024年表现最差的将在2025年成为最佳。

The worst performance of '24 will be the best in '25.

你知道吗？

You know what?

我道歉。

I apologize.

我本应该在把这些内容放进来之前先看看的。

I should've I should've looked at this before I put these in here.

我确实记得专门写过关于Dollar General和Dollar Tree的文章，那确实发生了。

I do remember writing about Dollar General and Dollar Tree specifically, and that did happen.

事实上，我...我知道我提到过什么。

In fact, I I I know what I mentioned.

我提到过Dollar General和Dollar Tree是最佳选择之一，还有Moderna。

I mentioned Dollar Dollar Trio General as some of the best and Moderna as well.

我...我确实买过这两只股票。

I I did buy both of these stocks.

我止损了Moderna的股票，因为那支股票太差劲了，我打算

I cut my loss on Moderna because that was a crap stock that did not I'm gonna

我要说这个判断是错误的。

I'm gonna say that one's wrong.

这个观点我要反驳。

I'm gonna get wrong with that one.

这是个明显的错误标记。

That's a that's a red X.

好吧。

Fine.

但具体来说，我提到过Dollar Tree，那支股票是今年表现最好的股票之一。

But but specifically, I mentioned Dollar Tree, and that stock is one of the best stocks of the year.

行吧。

Okay.

好的。

Alright.

这这难度系数相当高。

This was this was a high degree of difficulty here.

我我真的押中了这一支。

I I really called my shot with this one.

这变得非常微妙了。

This is getting very cute.

上半年势头持续走高，但下半年经历了两位数回调，全年收跌。

Momentum keeps going in the first half, but we have a double digit correction in the back half and and down on the year.

我给自己1%的胜率，所以完全错了。

Abs I I gave myself a 1% chance, so absolutely wrong.

然后

And then

暴跌是上半年的主旋律。

Crashing is a first half story.

确实如此。

It was.

确实如此。

It really was.

然后惯例就是总会冒出些意外，让至少一半的预测显得很蠢。

And then the obligatory is something comes out of nowhere that makes at least half these predictions look very dumb.

这个我有90%的把握，结果我确实对了。

90% chance of getting that one right, and I did.

解放日来得毫无预兆。

Liberation Day came out of nowhere.

以上就是我的预测。

So those are my predictions.

还不错。

Not bad.

其实相当不错。

Pretty good, actually.

十个里中四个？还是五个？

Four out of ten, five out of 10?

我们正朝着年度平均增长的方向前进。

We're on course to have an average up year.

我的年度平均增长率是20%到21%。

My average up year is 20 to 21% gain.

我们完全符合这个预期。

We're right on track for that.

一切如常。

Very business as usual.

是啊，一如既往。

Yeah, like always.

好吧，这张图表最近在流传。

Okay, so this chart was making the rounds.

这是来自乔·韦森塔尔的，准确说是通过乔转发的吉姆·里德的图表。

This is from Joe Weisenthal, so Jim Reid via Joe Weisenthal.

等等，我看到乔和特蕾西这周要上TCAP节目了。

Wait, I show Joe a and Tracy are coming on TCAP this week.

哦，不错。

Oh, nice.

是啊。

Yeah.

我们这里正在跨界交流，

We're crossing of worlds here,

嗯。

Mhmm.

好的。

Okay.

这张图表展示了OpenAI在盈利前预计要烧掉多少钱，同时对比了亚马逊、Spotify、特斯拉和优步在业务扩张期的数据。显然OpenAI在盈利前烧的钱要多得多——在我看来，如果OpenAI是上市公司，现在股价应该已经跌了40%。

Showing how much OpenAI is expected to burn before turning up profits, and this shows Amazon, and Spotify, and Tesla, and Uber as they're ramping up, right, and it shows obviously that OpenAI is burning way way more money before turning a profit, and obviously it seems to me like if OpenAI was a public company, it would be down 40% right now.

至少40%。

At least.

对吧？

Right?

轻而易举。

Easily.

这这似乎成了典型代表，但我不确定这是否重要，因为他们背后有微软和所有这些其他公司支持。

This this seems to be the poster child, and I'm not sure it matters because they have Microsoft behind them and all these other companies.

就像，如果这是一家上市公司，想想看，伙计，这东西会让我亏惨，但我不确定这是否真的重要，因为所有这些其他公司要想成功，它们也必须成功。

Like isn't isn't that the thing like if if this was a public company, think, man, this thing would get me smoked, but I don't know I don't know if it really matters because all these other companies they have to succeed these other companies to succeed.

嗯，关键就在这里。

Well, here's where here's where it matters.

如果OpenAI失败了，比如真的无法履行其财务义务，那那才是风暴的中心。

If OpenAI is is if OpenAI fails and, like, literally is not able to meet its financial obligations, that that is that's the eye of the storm.

那就是震中。

That's the epicenter.

如果如果存在泡沫，那就是泡沫所在。

If if we're a bubble, that's the bubble.

就在那里。

It's right there.

这是个万亿美元市值的市场。

It's a trillion dollar market cap.

如果他们失败了，我们就麻烦大了。

If they fail, we're in we're in deep duty.

因为那样这些公司将不得不分流部分现金流来救助他们，而非继续投资。

Because then these companies will have to divert some of their cash flows to help them as opposed to continuing to invest.

对吧？

Right?

这完全关乎信心。

It's just all of the belief.

如果信心崩塌，我们就完了。

If the belief goes, we're that's it.

彻底玩完。

Kaput.

对了，你听说了吗...哦你告诉过我了。

By the way, did you you listen oh, you told me that.

你听过迈克尔·巴里和迈克尔·刘易斯的对话吗？

You listened to Michael Barry with Michael Lewis?

我也听过他的访谈。

I listened to him as well.

是的。

Yes.

他的声音和说话方式确实让我有点联想到山姆·奥特曼。

He sounds his voice and his manner of speaking did sound a bit like Sam Altman to me.

我完全没有暗示犯罪关联的意思。

And I'm not making the criminal connection at all.

我只是想说，他在播客里两次提到自己属于自闭症谱系，这点我很认同。

I'm just saying, like, I do genuinely believe I mean, he said it twice in the podcast that he's on the spectrum.

社交媒体人格与现实之间的割裂感实在太荒诞了。

It's so wild, the disconnect between social media personality.

在社交媒体上，你可以扮演任何人。

On social media, you could be anyone.

我觉得他有点像在扮演超级反派的角色。

He's like I think he's, like, sort of playing a supervillain.

我不确定他是否也这么看待自己。

I don't know if he if he views himself that way.

我猜

I would imagine that

他确实这么想。

he does.

有时候这也和你社交媒体上用的照片有关。

Sometimes it it's also the the picture you use on social media.

他的照片看起来有点凶。

His picture looks kinda mean.

是啊。

Yeah.

我是这么看的。

And it's it's I look I look at it like this.

在短信里我是个随和的人。

When I I'm a big okay guy on texts.

当我妻子发来一大段信息时，我就回个'好的'。

When I my wife will text me this long thing, and I'll say, okay.

而她就会觉得被冒犯。

And she'll mean she'll she'll be she'll take offense to it.

你什么意思？就回个'好的'？

What do you mean okay?

就只是'好的'而已。

What just okay.

就这样。

That's all.

但她就会觉得被冒犯。

And she takes offense.

所以我认为这也是你在社交媒体上存在的认知偏差。

So I think that's the disconnect you have in your mind also, this thing on social media.

而且克里斯蒂安·贝尔那件事，你说得对。

Plus, the Christian Bale thing, you're right.

当我对比电影里的克里斯蒂安·贝尔角色和他在迈克尔·刘易斯访谈中的表现时，那完全是两个人。

When I view the Christian Bale character on the movie versus listening to him with Michael Lewis, that's two completely different people.

但电影里对他进行了全面美化——废话，毕竟是电影嘛。

But they completely embellished him for the movie, which duh, it's a movie.

不过他确实是那个人。

He he is the guy, though.

每当他的13F文件公布时，所有主流媒体都会报道，因为他是《大空头》的原型人物。

Whenever his 13 f comes out, every major media outlet like, because he's the big short guy.

对吧？

Right?

我们都知道这套路怎么运作的。

And we know how this works.

但如果他用语音而不是文字发推的话，人们大概会反应冷淡。

But if he were to if he were to tweet in voice instead of in text, like, people would be like, oh.

是啊。

Yeah.

听起来挺吓人的。

It sounded scary.

对。

Yeah.

我...我同意。

I I agree.

他的声音远没有你从书中读到、或从克里斯蒂安·贝尔饰演的电影角色中构建出的那种威严形象那么有压迫感。

His voice doesn't doesn't sound nearly as imposing as his, like, presence that you have built up in your mind from reading about him in a book and seeing him on a movie played by Christian Bale.

这就是社交媒体的特点。

And this is this is the thing with social media.

你可以成为任何你想成为的人。

You could be anyone who you you wanna be.

所有东西都会被断章取义。

Everything is taken out of context.

我们经常讨论这个话题。

We always talk about this.

我们在社交媒体上遇到过很多号称是世界上最悲观的人，但现实中见面后你会发现，他们其实像小奶狗一样温顺。

We we've met a lot of people on social media that are, like, the biggest, hugest doomers in the world, and you meet them in real life and you go, oh, he's like a little puppy dog.

他根本不是这样的。

He's not really like this.

他只是在社交媒体上扮演一个角色。

He's playing a character for social media.

是啊，顺便说一句，这真的让我很抓狂。

Yeah, which by the way, that drives me nuts.

真的让我很抓狂。

Drives me nuts.

对我来说最困惑的是，到底哪个才是真实的他？

I can't to me it's like, which is the real person?

没错。

Right.

社交媒体是表演，还是现实生活才是表演？

Is social media the act or is the in person the act?

在某些情况下我真的分不清。

And I don't know in some cases.

是社交表演。

It's social.

就像当

It's like when

但如果你是个混蛋，至少保持本色。

But if you're if you're a dick, just at least be that way.

我记得我们上大学时，有个家伙——我交了一群朋友，他们说，嘿。

I remember we we went to when I went to college, there was a guy who it was another I became friends with a with a group of guys, and they said, hey.

那边那个家伙，他高中时可不是这样的。

This that guy over there, he went through a high school.

他们说，他高中时根本不是这样。

And they said, he wasn't like this in in high school.

他为了上大学试图改变自己的性格，这当然无可厚非，但他们觉得那并不是真实的他。

He's trying to change his personality for college, which, hey, more power too, but they're like, that's not really what he's like.

他只是在为上大学做表演。

He's doing this as a show for college.

这就是社交媒体的本质。

And that's what social media is.

人们总试图在高中和大学之间变成另一个人。

You try to become a different person between high school and college.

说句公道话，我敢说我在推特活跃时，线上人格和现实人格基本是一致的。

Credit to me, I'm pretty sure when I was active on Twitter that my online personality was more or less in line with my real life personality.

我也尽量做到一致。

I try as well.

我在推特上非常毒舌，但社交媒体上的人根本不懂讽刺。

I'm very sarcastic on Twitter and people on social media do not get sarcasm.

不过话说回来，你现实中倒没那么毒舌。

Although, you are more you're not like that in real life.

这么一想，或许你也是问题的一部分。

So maybe maybe you're part of the problem now that I think about it.

我不讽刺吗？

I'm not sarcastic?

在现实生活中？

In real life?

你不是一个

You're not a

混蛋

jerk in

在现实生活中？

real life?

不是。

No.

噢，我在社交媒体上也不是个混蛋。

Oh, I'm I'm not a jerk on social media.

你在说什么？

What are you talking about?

但讽刺是一种令人讨厌的特质。

But sarcasm is like a jerky quality.

哦，什么？

Oh, what?

不是的。

No.

如果只是开玩笑就不算。

Sark not if it's in in jest.

在社交媒体上，讽刺就是讨人嫌。

On on social media, sarcasm is jerky.

别胡说了。

Get out of here.

那只是因为人们不理解它。

That's just because people don't understand it.

你觉得讽刺很高雅吗？

You think sarcasm is highbrow?

你是在说些让人听不懂的话吗？

You're talking over people's heads?

我觉得讽刺很有趣。

I think sarcasm is funny.

那是我最喜欢的幽默类型。

That's my favorite kind of humor.

我还能更讽刺一点吗？

Could I be any more sarcastic?

钱德勒。

Chandler.

对吧？

Right?

那是个很棒的角色。

That's a great character.

好吧。

Alright.

总之，回到这张图表。

Anyway, back to this chart.

这是个预测。

This is a projection.

对。

Yeah.

一直到2029年。

To 2029.

你说得对。

You're right.

这不像迄今为止的损失，更像是，天啊。

It's it's not like these are the losses to date, it's like, oh my god.

就像，要重新调整一切。

Like, recalibrate everything.

这肯定是不对的。

This is this is not gonna be right.

你可以这么说，听着。

You could say, listen.

这比1994到2002年的亚马逊规模要大得多。

This is way bigger than Amazon in '94 to 2002.

这意味着OpenAI的规模也会远超亚马逊，因为他们承受的亏损要大得多。

That means OpenAI is gonna be way bigger than Amazon too because they're taking way more losses.

他们现在只是在不断积累，以便未来能获得更多回报。

They're just they're just piling it up now so they can make more down the line.

如果这真的成为现实，谁来为所有这些亏损买单？

If this does come true, who's funding all these losses?

所有大型科技公司。

All the big tech firms.

对吧？

Right?

是啊。

Yeah.

你说得对。

You're right.

你说得对。

You're right.

这个这个图表永远不会成真。

This this chart's never gonna come true.

不可能。

No way.

投资回报必须在2029年之前就实现。

The the the ROI has to happen way before 2029.

我只是不认为有1400亿美元的亏损需要填补。

I just don't think that there's a $140,000,000,000 worth of losses to be funded.

到某个时候，人们会说，嘿。

At some point, people would be like, hey.

你知道吗？

You know what?

可能不是资本的最佳用途。

Probably not a great use of capital.

对。

Right.

是的。

Yes.

微软CEO会说，不行。

Microsoft CEO is gonna say, no.

这不是我们接下来要做的事。

This is not what we're doing anymore.

抱歉。

Sorry.

是啊。

Yeah.

故事到此结束。

End of story.

好的。

Okay.

接下来这段内容由富达赞助播出。

This next segment is brought to you by Fidelity.

本，现在是财报季。

Ben, it is it's earning season.

也是展望季。

It's outlook season.

抱歉。

Excuse me.

你是喜欢展望的人吗？

Are you an outlook guy?

你大概是吧。

You probably Yeah.

我喜欢关注这些展望报告。

I like to I like to follow the outlooks.

你是在说你自己的展望吧？

You're talking about your own outlook.

对吧？

Right?

预测吗？

Predictions?

这其实很有趣，因为我们都知道做预测和展望是件傻事，但我觉得每个人都不得不做。

It it is it is funny because I think we all agree that there's a folly of making predictions and forecasts, but we I think everyone has to do it.

这很娱乐。

It's entertaining.

对吧？

Right?

挺有意思的。

It's fun.

我很喜欢这个。

I love it.

好的。

Alright.

总之，想了解更多请访问fidelity.com。

Anyway, go to fidelity.com to learn more.

节目笔记里有我们讨论内容的相关链接。

Link in show notes for what we're talking about here.

好的。

Alright.

所以他们有他们的展望报告，里面有大概六种不同的板块。

So they've got their outlook, and they've got, like, six different, like, tiles.

于是我点击了这个板块。

So I clicked on this one.

国际股票将重燃涨势。

International stocks reignite.

我们之前多次分享过这张图表。

We've shared this chart before many times.

我不知道为什么我要这么做，就像我是个天气预报员似的。

I don't know why I just did this, like, I'm, like, a a weather person.

全球股市市盈率。

Global stock market PE ratios.

美国当然远高于新兴市场和发达国家。

US, of course, way above emerging and developed.

但问题是，本。

But here's the thing, Ben.

你知道吗？我想你可能已经知道了，国际股票表现远超美国股票的程度？

Did you know, I think you probably did, the degree to which international stocks are outperforming US stocks?

我觉得这件事被严重低估了。

I feel like this is way underreported.

虽然只是一年的数据，但差距确实非常显著。

Get it's only one year, but it's, like, massive.

Aque x US上涨了30%。

Aque x US is up 30%.

30。

30.

而美国罗素3000指数表现强劲，年内上涨17%。

And The US, the Russell 3,000, having a great year, up 17%.

这可是巨大的差距。

That's a giant spread.

而且美元的大幅下跌已经发生了。

And the the giant leap the fall in the dollar already happened.

美元已经或多或少趋于稳定。

The dollar has more or less kind of stabilized.

对吧？

Right?

它下跌了10%，然后年内其余时间基本保持稳定。

It fell 10%, and then it kinda stabilized the rest of the year.

所以这不仅仅是美元下跌的延续。

So it's not like this is just a continuation of the dollar falling.

国际股市持续上涨，不仅美元有所重估，估值也有所提升，这是好事。

International stocks have just continued to go up, and there's there's been something of a rerating in not only the dollar, but valuations have come up a little bit, which is good.

投资者实际上又开始对这些股票感兴趣了。

Investors are actually interested in these stocks again.

所以我认为我们讨论得还远远不够，嘿。

So I think that we're not talking about this nearly enough that, hey.

在大家都在谈论的巨大AI泡沫中，国际股市目前正碾压美股。

In the midst of this huge AI bubble everyone's talking about, international stocks are crushing US stocks right now.

好吧。

Alright.

提前预测一下我对2026年的看法。

Early peak on my predictions for 2026.

这个可能会在清单上。

This could be on the list.

国际股票不仅明年会再次跑赢大盘，而且这将是媒体终于开始关注的一年。

Not only are international stocks gonna outperform again next year, but it is going to be the year where finally the media pays attention.

不太好。

Not fine.

我是说，这才仅仅过去一年。

I mean, it's only been it's only been one year.

但这将成为头条新闻。

But it's gonna be it's gonna be headline stuff.

因为你知道吗？

Because you know what?

现实是，当你拉长时间线看，谁在乎呢？

Reality is you zoom out, who cares?

这只是一个小波动。

It's a blip.

对吧？

Right?

比如，如果你看比率图，这根本显示不出来。

Like, if you look at the ratio chart, this is doesn't really register.

再给它一年时间，就会开始显现了。

Give it give it another year, it'll start to register.

那你觉得美元会继续下跌吗？还是说这只是股票的一次重新评级？

Do you also think the dollar will continue to fall, or is this just a rerating of the stocks then?

这是货币因素还是股票因素？

Is it a currency play or a stock play?

敬请期待。

Stay tuned.

好吧。

Okay.

你得为这个预测做个7a和7b分类。

You have to do a, like, a seven a and seven b for that prediction.

行吧。

Alright.

富达经纪业务。

Fidelity's brokerage.

他们是不是全球最大的401k计划提供商、记录保管者之类的，我不确定。

They are I don't know if they're the largest four zero one k provider, record keeper, whatever it is, in the world.

很可能是。

They probably are.

我认为是的，接下来是先锋集团。

I think they are, then Vanguard's point next.

654,004.00美元，相当于100万百万富翁。

$654,004.00 1 k millionaires.

这占余额的3.2%。

That's 3.2% of balances.

这个数字听起来很低

Now that sounds like a low

这比我想象的要低。

That's lower than I would have thought.

但仔细想想。

But think about it though.

有多少人会把所有钱都放在401(k)账户里呢？

How many people have all of their money in a four zero one k?

而且人们会换工作，所以401(k)账户可能就留在原处，你可能也不会去转存它。

Plus people change jobs, and so a four zero one k stays over here, and maybe you don't roll it over.

所以能有几十万人通过401(k)成为百万富翁，我觉得这已经相当惊人了。

So the fact that there are even that many hundreds of thousands of $4.00 1 k millionaires, I think that's impressive.

是啊。

Yeah.

说得好。

Good point.

我原本以为比例会更高些。

I guess I just would have guessed it was higher.

好吧。

Okay.

你并不觉得这有什么了不起。

You're not impressed.

好吧。

Alright.

所以这个这个不。

So this this No.

不。

No.

我不是不觉得印象深刻。

I'm not not impressed.

我只是感到惊讶。

I'm surprised.

我会

I would

以为数字会更高些，但我觉得你说的也有道理。

have thought it was higher, but I think you'd make a valid point too.

对。

Right.

所以65万4听起来很多。

So 654,000 sounds like a lot.

3.2%听起来不多。

3.2% doesn't sound like a lot.

这篇《华尔街日报》的文章还提到，有人提出了'中等百万富翁'的说法，称如果你的净资产在一百万到五百万美元之间，你就是个中等百万富翁，这种说法听起来有点贬低意味。

So this in this Wall Street Journal article, they also talk about how there's this someone gives the phrase moderate millionaires, and it says if you're worth one to five million dollars, you're a moderate millionaire, which sounds kind of degrading.

但瑞银估计，全球这类百万富翁的数量自2000年以来已翻了两番，今年达到5200万人。

But so UBS estimates that the number of such millionaires around the world has quadrupled since 2,000 to 52,000,000 this year.

去年在美国，每天新增一千名这样的普通百万富翁。

There were a thousand of these moderate millionaires added every single day in The US last year.

好的。

Okay.

所以这就是那个数字。

So that's the number.

等等。

Hold on.

全球有5200万人。

52,000,000 around the world.

是的。

Yes.

还有一千个百万富翁。

And a thousand millionaires.

每天新增上千个百万富翁。

Thousands a day in Okay.

哇。

The Wow.

他们采访了瑞银的首席经济学家，他说流行文化仍将百万富翁视为史高治·麦克老鸭或大富翁游戏中的顶级富豪形象。

So so then they talked to the chief economist, UBS, and he says popular culture still thinks of millionaires in terms of Scrooge McDuck or the top headed icon of Monopoly.

这些新晋百万富翁虽然突破了心理财富门槛，但他们的收入和消费仍属于中产阶级家庭水平。

The new dollar millionaires have a broken psychological wealth threshold, but their income and spending is that of a middle class household.

他表示，要像传统意义上的百万富翁那样消费，可能至少需要500万美元。

He said spending like a stereotypical millionaire probably requires at least $5,000,000, he said.

所以这又是那种情况——你以为自己很富有？

So this is another one of those things like you think you're rich?

是啊，其实你并不富有，但你知道吗？

Yeah, you're not rich, But guess what?

这就是《邻家的百万富翁》所描述的情形。

This is just the millionaire next door.

这并非新鲜事。

This is nothing new.

文章指出，他们虽然心理上有财富门槛，但实际收入和支出并不匹配。

So it says that, like, they have this psychological wealth threshold, but their income and spending doesn't match it.

这其实是件好事。

That's a good thing.

你认为这些人是怎么致富的？

How do you think these people became wealthy?

因为他们保持着中产阶级的消费水平和收入。

Because they have a middle class household spending an income.

这就是他们的致富之道。

This is how they did it.

这就像是在逆向操作——如果他们像典型百万富翁那样挥霍，就根本成不了百万富翁。

It's like they're trying to reverse, you know, if they spent like a typical millionaire, they wouldn't be millionaires.

这不是明摆着的嘛。

Duh.

问题就在这儿。

That's the thing.

这就是《邻家的百万富翁》里讲的内容。

This is millionaire next door stuff.

拜托，各位。

Come on, people.

今天早上，我给科比看了一部电影，你可能很惊讶地发现我是在电影院看的这部电影。

This morning, I showed Kobe a movie that you you might be shocked to learn that I saw this movie in the theater.

不可能。

No way.

你当时六岁？

You were six?

好吧。

Okay.

那是什么？

What's that?

你六岁的时候？

When you were six?

我九岁。

I was nine.

好吧。

Okay.

和他差不多大。

About his age.

好的。

Alright.

一九九四年。

Nineteen ninety four.

我确定你看过这部电影。

I I'm sure you saw this movie.

《空白支票》。

Blank Check.

是的。

Yes.

所以是空白支票对吧？

So blank right?

你看过那部电影。

You saw that movie.

《空白支票》我肯定是在某人的生日派对上看的。

Blank Check is I'm positive I saw that at somebody's birthday party.

《空白支票》在迪士尼上可以看。

Blank Check is on Disney.

詹姆斯·瑞伯恩，那个终极家伙。

James Reborn, the ultimate that guy.

是啊。

Yeah.

对吧？

Right?

那个爸爸？

The dad?

所以他在《空白支票》里演爸爸。

So he was the dad in blank check.

他在那部电影里45岁。

He was 45 in that movie.

我猜看起来差不多，但他在电影里演的是你这个年龄段的人。

I guess maybe that looks about right, but he was he was your age in that movie.

对。

Right.

怎么？

How?

而且他这辈子看起来差不多都是那个样子。

And he looked that way his whole life pretty much seems like.

对吧？

Right?

那部电影的剧情是，这个小孩拿到一张空白支票，然后他就像'哦不'这样。

So the story of that movie, this kid gets a blank check and he he has like he's like, oh, no.

这是我老板的钱。

It's my boss's money.

是麦金托什先生的。

It's mister McIntosh.

还记得吗？

Remember that?

因为一辆车撞了他还是怎么的，那人就直接给了他一张支票？

Because a car hits him or something, the guy just gives him a check?

他开了一百万美元的支票吗？

Does he write it for a million dollars?

记忆力真棒，本。

Great recall, Ben.

哇。

Wow.

给你点赞。

Credit to you.

我记得那个情节。

I remember that.

他开了一百万美元的支票吗？

Does he write it for a million dollars?

我不记得了。

I don't remember.

是啊。

Yeah.

对。

Yeah.

好吧。

Okay.

所以他爸爸从他奶奶那里拿到了一张空白支票。

So his dad so he gets a blank check from his grandma.

他爸爸问，去年他收到了多少钱？

His dad asks, how much did he get last year?

10美元？

$10?

然后孩子说，是的。

And the kid goes, yeah.

但通货膨胀怎么办？

But what about inflation?

所以他给了他11美元。

So he gives him $11.

他插上电脑。

He plugs into his computer.

这个孩子非常精明。

This kid was very savvy.

他插上电脑。

He plugs into his computer.

我忘了利率是多少。

I forgot what the interest rate was.

从11美元到100万美元需要多少年？

How much would it how many years would it take to go from $11 to 1,000,000?

显示需要大约三十四万年。

It said, like, three hundred forty thousand years.

科比笑疯了。

Kobe lost it.

他觉得这是有史以来最好笑的事。

He thought it was the funniest thing ever.

总之，这是部很适合孩子看的电影。

Anyway, great movie for kids.

在迪士尼平台就能看。

It's on Disney.

你看过八十年代那部《布鲁斯特的百万横财》吗？

Did you ever see the movie from the eighties, Brewster's Millions?

没看过。

No.

好吧。

Okay.

这可是约翰·坎迪的经典之作。

It's a John Candy classic.

主演是约翰·坎迪和理查德·普赖尔，剧情是他要在30天内花光3000万美元，但不能直接送人。

So it's it's John Candy, Richard Pryor, and he has thirty days to spend $30,000,000, but he can't just give it away.

如果他真的捐出了3000万，他就能继承3亿。

And if he does gives away 30,000,000, he he inherits 300,000,000.

这部电影很棒，他在八十年代要花掉那么多钱可真是费劲。

It's a good one, and he's he's a hard time spending that much money in the eighties.

放到今天我觉得这事会很容易。

Today I think that would be very easy.

好的。

Okay.

我们上周没提到这事，但高盛收购了创新ETF。

We met didn't mention this last week, but Goldman Sachs bought innovative ETFs.

我们2018年第一次与Bruce Bond进行了'谈你的书'访谈。

We had our first Talk Your Book interview with Bruce Bond I think in 2018.

是的。

Yeah.

我们做到了。

And we did it.

我们当时在芝加哥拜访我们的办公室，我们在地下室

We were in Chicago visiting our our office there, and we we were in, like, the basement Where

我们在哪？

were we?

我们在一栋WeWork大楼的地下室

We were in basement of a WeWork building.

哦，好吧

Oh, okay.

对吧？

Right?

所以我们就在那里采访了布鲁斯·邦德，他向我们阐述了这个想法，我们俩立刻就恍然大悟，心想天哪

So we interviewed Bruce Bond there, and he told us the idea, the and light bulb immediately went on for both of us, and we go, oh my gosh.

这会是个大机会

This is gonna be huge.

我们一直这么说，我们就能告诉顾问、客户和退休人员，这个想法将会产生巨大影响

And we've been saying this all like, we could just tell for advisors and clients and retirees, this idea is going to be massive.

每次我们和布鲁斯交谈，这些年里我们大概聊过五六次，甚至更多，每次交谈时，资产规模都在不断膨胀。就在上周，高盛宣布将以20亿美元收购他们。

And every time we talk to Bruce, we talk to him, I don't know, half dozen times over the years, maybe more, and every time we talk to him, the assets would get bigger and bigger and bigger, and last week Goldman Sachs is going to buy them for $2,000,000,000.

当时很多人看到这个数字都说：天啊，20亿美元收购管理着280亿美元资产的公司？

Now a lot of people looked at it and said, geez, $2,000,000,000 and they they managed 28,000,000,000, right?

从倍数来看这似乎很高。

That seems like a lot in terms of like a multiple.

未来会达到1000亿美元规模。

It's gonna be a 100,000,000,000.

但也有很多人说：高盛可以做期权流业务对吧？

But also a lot a lot of other people said also, Goldman Sachs can do the option flow, right?

这些都是期权策略，他们总有办法从中获利。

So they these are option strategies, so they can make money there somehow too.

不过业内有很多人不喜欢这类策略，认为它们不够优化，说如果用优化持仓策略就能获得相同回报。我觉得这完全是电子表格思维，完全忽略了这些策略的心理层面价值。

But there's a lot of people in the industry who who don't like these kind of strategies and don't get them, and they say they're suboptimal, and if you did if you use this optimization position strategy, you could do this and make the same return stream, and I think it just totally misses that's a total spreadsheet mindset that misses the psychological component of these strategies.

而这正是你我立刻抓住的核心要点。

And I think that's the thing you and I latched onto immediately.

这是心理层面的东西，不是数字表格能体现的。

It's a psychological thing, not a number spreadsheet thing.

正因如此，这个项目才能如此成功并吸引大量资金。

And that's why this thing was such a success and garnered so much money.

我觉得对高盛来说这是个有趣的组合，但他们显然是想扩大ETF业务。

And it's an interesting pairing, I think, for Goldman, but obviously they wanted to increase their ETF business.

向布鲁斯和整个团队致敬。

Shout to Bruce and the whole team.

真为他们感到高兴。

Very happy for them.

多么惊人的退出啊。

What a what an exit.

太棒了。

It's awesome.

他人也很不错。

Great guy too.

这是他第二次重大退出，因为他之前也在PowerShares，后来被收购了。

And his second huge exit because he was at PowerShares as well, and they bought up.

那是个问题。

That was a question.

我曾经是个专业人士。

Was it I was a power pro.

我刚才说什么了？

What did I say?

好的。

Okay.

其中一部分。

One of the piece.

多年来你我一直在讨论的一个问题是：这些钱到底从何而来？

One of the things you and I have been talking about for years now is where does this money keep coming from?

人们不断往股市、货币市场、比特币等一切领域投入更多资金。

People, you know, putting more money into stocks and more money in the money markets and Bitcoin and everything.

卡森集团的瑞安·迪特里希，同时也是《事实与感受》播客的主持人，这档节目很棒。

Ryan Dietrich from Carson Group also with the Facts and Feeling podcast, which is great.

他指出可支配收入和员工薪酬的增长速度持续超过通胀率，他考察了过去三年、六个月和一年期间的数据，关注的是可支配收入、员工薪酬与PCE通胀率——这是美联储重点监测的通胀指标。

He says disposable income and employee compensation continue to grow faster than inflation, and he looks at it over the past three, six, and one year periods, and he's looking at disposable income and employee compensation and PCE inflation, which is the Fed's inflation rate that they look at.

不。

No.

不。

No.

本本本本，你得说他们偏爱的衡量标准。

Ben Ben Ben Ben, you have to say their preferred gauge.

抱歉。

Sorry.

偏爱的衡量标准。

Preferred gauge.

确实如此。

True.

可支配收入和薪酬持续以高于通胀的速度增长，这是人们在抱怨通胀时我们从未讨论的部分。

And disposable income and compensation continues to grow at a pace that's faster than inflation, and this is the piece that we never talk about when people complain about inflation.

这也引出了这一点，我知道因为我们明白原因何在。

It's also bringing up this and I know because we know why this is.

当人们获得加薪时，他们觉得是靠自身努力。

When people get a raise, they think it's them.

当通胀发生时，他们却归咎于政府。

When inflation happens, they think it's the government.

但人们其实拥有更多——我不认为大家意识到，这十年通胀上升了25%，也意味着名义工资和薪水相应增长了约25%，对吧？

But this people just have more I don't think people realize with inflation rising 25 this decade, that also means pretty much a commensurate 25% increase in wages and salaries on a nominal right?

以名义基准计算。

A nominal basis.

而且我认为实际增幅可能还更高些。

And I think it's actually been a little bit more.

这正是大量资金的来源所在。

That's where a lot of this money is coming from.

人们现在有更多的钱可以花。

People have more money to spend now.

是啊。

Yeah.

你知道吗？

You know what?

我觉得如果事后让100个人投票，大多数人会说，你知道吗？

I think if you poll a 100 people with the benefit of hindsight, I think most people would say, you you know what?

我宁愿要1.5%的工资增长和1.8%的通胀。

I'd rather like one and a half percent wage gains and 1.8% inflation.

我宁愿输给通胀，接受正常的价格上涨，也不要现在这样。

I'd rather lose to inflation and have normal price increases than this.

我同意。

I I agree.

人们宁愿通胀是一种隐形税，也不要现在这样。

That's People people would rather inflation be a invisible tax than this.

这很讽刺。

It is funny.

因为在这种状况下，我感觉自己怎么都前进不了。

Because with this, it feels like I I can't get ahead.

我涨了25%的工资，但生活水平还是原地踏步。

I got a 25% raise, I'm still in the same spot.

确实讽刺。

Is funny.

人们...是啊。

People I'm yeah.

大家其实更怀念2010年代那种经济状况。

The the people prefer the 2,000 tens, which was that situation.

但真的很讽刺。

But it's funny.

那时候还记得吗，所有政策专家都在喊：我们需要推高通胀。

Back then, remember all the policy wonks were going, we need to get inflation higher.

这太低了。

This is too low.

嗯，因为确实如此。

Well, because yes.

没错。

Exactly.

说到这个，钱到底从哪来，我们请Vlad上了TCAF节目。

Speaking of, like, where does the money keep coming from, we had Vlad on TCAF.

你听了吗？

Did you listen to that?

听了。

Yes.

是的。

Yeah.

他是说，他们觉得自己要统治世界了，我猜。

He's I mean, they're gonna they think they're gonna rule the world, I guess.

我真的很享受和他共度的时光。

I really enjoyed spending time with him.

说实话，比我想象中还要愉快。

Frankly, more than I thought.

我很喜欢有他作伴。

I enjoyed his company.

你是真的喜欢他的发型吗？

Did you really like his hair?

就是那个那个

Is that what that what

是吗？

it was?

我是真的喜欢他的发型？

Did I really like his hair?

你在开玩笑吗？

Are you kidding me?

他的发型确实不错。

He's got some nice hair.

太不可思议了。

It's incredible.

在第三季度，他们的净存款额我记不清是200亿还是280亿了。

In the third quarter, their net deposits was like I can't remember if it was 20,000,000,000 or 28,000,000,000.

这些钱都是从哪来的？

Where's all the money coming from?

我的意思是，这只是工资收入。

I get this is I mean, it's just wages.

对吧？

Right?

还能从哪来呢？

Where else could it coming from?

没错。

Right.

是啊。

And yeah.

显然，他们通过消除障碍实现了自动存款功能。

And obviously, the the thing that they've done with the breaking down the barriers is you have the automatic deposits on.

对吧？

Right?

这些资金源源不断地涌入。

And that money just keeps coming and coming and coming.

每获得一个新客户，他们的资金就会持续流入。

And every time you get new customers, their money keeps coming and coming.

这是复利叠加的效应。

It's compounding on top of compounding.

不仅是市场在上涨，还有更多资金持续涌入。

So not only is the market up, but more money's coming in on top of that.

我们简单聊了聊他在GameStop事件后的处境。

We spoke briefly about what it was like for him in the aftermath of the GameStop stuff.

真的，我无法想象他收到了多少死亡威胁。

Like, I can't imagine how many death threats he got.

对吧？

Right?

他从一个相对默默无闻的人物，一夜之间登上了所有杂志的头版。

People are he was he he went from relatively unknown character to front page of every magazine.

没错。

Right.

简直就像一夜之间变成了全球公敌。

Like, overnight global villain.

那肯定是一段疯狂的个人经历。

Like, that must have been a wild personal experience.

是的。

Yes.

有时候人们会忽略这些事件中其实也有真实的人参与其中。

Sometimes people do separate the that there's people involved in these things too.