美国常春藤：第一章

好吧。

Alright.

哦，哦，哦。

Oh, oh, oh.

好吧。

Alright.

明白了。

Got you.

好的。

Okay.

章节

Chapter

一。

one.

六年前，我曾瞥见了未来。

Once upon a time, six years ago, I was given a glimpse of the future.

但那个未来现在已经成了过去，所以到目前为止，你也看到了。

But that future is now the past, so at this point, you've seen it too.

天哪。

Oh my god.

所以这些是2018年的牛仔裤。

So these are these are jeans for 2018.

是的。

Yeah.

天哪。

Oh my god.

在2016年，我有幸看到了2018年牛仔裤的样子，因为我当时在WGSN的办公室，那或许是全球最大的趋势预测公司。

In 2016, I was allowed to see what blue jeans would look like in 2018 because I was at the office of WGSN, perhaps the world's largest trend forecasting company.

几乎所有主要品牌和零售商都会咨询他们。

Almost every major brand and retailer consults them.

他们订阅我们的服务，以便提前两年预测消费者模式和趋势的变化。

And they're subscribing to us to kind of get a projection of what to expect in consumer patterns and changes over the next two years.

当时，趋势预测员莎拉·欧文让我查看WGSN的网站，看看未来的趋势走向，这让我非常兴奋，因为通常WGSN要收取数千美元才能查看他们的预测。

And it was so exciting that trend forecaster Sarah Owen would let me look at WGSN's website to see the genes of the future, because normally, WGSN charges thousands of dollars to look at their predictions.

WGSN代表什么？

What does WGSN stand for?

这就是我不确定的原因，因为我们知道公司经历过一次品牌重塑，现在它已经变成一个没有实际含义的缩写。

This is why I'm not sure whether because we know we went through some rebranding, and it's kind of become an acronym that doesn't really have a meaning.

这些内容都来自我2016年关于WGSN的一篇报道。

So that was all from a story I did about WGSN in 2016.

从那以后，我就对这家公司产生了轻微的痴迷。

And ever since, I've been mildly obsessed with this company.

它给我的感觉，就像小时候有人告诉我什么是性一样。

It kinda gave me the same feeling as when I was a kid and someone told me what sex was.

难道每个人都在做这件事吗？

And I was like, is everybody doing this?

这件事无处不在，但为什么没人谈论呢？

Is it everywhere, but no one is talking about it?

就WGSN而言，结果确实如此。

In the case of WGSN, it turns out like, yeah, kind of.

许多公司都在使用WGSN。

So many companies do use WGSN.

随着我越来越多地报道服装和时尚相关的报道，我开始询问每一个我接触的人是否参考过它。

And as I did more and more stories about clothes and fashion, I started asking everyone I spoke to whether or not they consulted it.

甚至连一家生产夏威夷衬衫公司的男装总监也是如此。

Even this director of menswear at a company that makes Hawaiian shirts.

你们用WGSN吗？

Do you use WGSN?

用的。

Yeah.

这家公司可是做夏威夷衬衫的。

Like this company makes aloha shirts.

这个指导方向似乎非常明确。

The directive seems pretty clear.

我们都清楚阿罗哈衬衫应该是什么样子。

We all know what aloha shirts are supposed to be.

但这家公司的设计部门在看到轮廓变化时，仍希望得到确认和第二意见。

But the design department of this company wants reassurance and a second opinion when they're seeing silhouettes shift.

现在正在发生很大的变化，因为以前那种宽松的衬衫非常流行。

There's a big shift happening now because it was huge boxy shirts.

对吧？

Right?

这种宽松版型长期是主流，后来逐渐变得修身紧致。

And that was the norm for a long time, and it started to get smaller and trimmer fit.

所以我们开始收紧版型，但现在趋势又反过来，重新变得宽松和oversized了。

So we started to bring our fits in, but now it's shifting the other way and becoming boxy and oversized again.

所以当然了。

So sure.

一切都在循环往复。

Everything's a cycle.

这是一句真理。

That's a truism.

但是

But

但当我了解了WGSN之后，我不禁思考预测者在趋势循环中所扮演的角色。

once I learned about WGSN, I couldn't help but wonder the role that forecasters play in the trend cycle.

比如，如果每个公司都在咨询WGSN，那WGSN是不是在创造趋势？

Like, if every company is consulting WGSN, is WGSN creating the trends?

然后人们只是因为这些趋势存在就去购买吗？

And then do people buy the trends just because they're there?

是尾巴在跟着狗跑吗？

Is the tail lagging the dog?

我的意思是，

I mean,

太多了

so many

人们会订阅WGSN。

people subscribe to WGSN.

如果你说，比如，透明塑料铆钉将在2018年流行，人们很可能会使用它们，然后我们就能知道到底有多大的影响，是的，

If you said, you know, clear plastic studs are gonna be in style in, you know, 2018, people would probably use them and then we'd let you know how much of Yeah,

是鸡生蛋，还是蛋生鸡。

the chicken or the egg.

是的。

Yeah.

是的，这一直是个热门话题，因为正如我所说，我们拥有世界上许多最具影响力和知名度的品牌在使用我们的服务。

Yeah, that's always a high one because like I said, we do have some of the most influential and recognizable brands in the world using us.

所以，如果我们向他们提供洞察和信息，告诉他们应该追随某种趋势，那究竟是我们在创造趋势，还是趋势本来就要自然出现？

So if we are giving them that insight and information that they should be doing a certain trend, it's like, we create it or was it actually about to come to fruition?

所以这个问题很难直接回答。

So that's a hard one to, like, directly answer.

你会觉得，我现在是2022年，作为一个未来的人，应该知道答案。

And you would think that I, now, in 2022, as a person of the future, would know the answer.

说实话，现在我能看出WGSN对2018年趋势的预测是否准确了。

Like, at this point, I could see if WGSN was right about the genes of 2018.

自从我做了那个报道后，时不时有人问我，我当初看到的未来趋势有没有成真。

And ever since I did that story, I have periodically been asked what I saw, if the genes of the future ever came to be.

我得承认，我完全忘了。

And I have to admit that I absolutely forgot.

我一点都想不起来了，因为过去六年里冒出了太多其他事情。

I don't remember at all because, I don't know, a bunch of other stuff came up in the last six years.

天啊。

Oh my god.

所以这些就是2018年的趋势。

So these are these are genes for 2018.

哦。

Oh

天啊。

my god.

所以大家总是问，他们对吗？

So everyone's always like, were they right?

未来的基因是什么？

What are the genes of the future?

你还记得吗？

Do you remember?

萨拉·欧文也记不得未来的基因了。

Sarah Owen didn't remember the genes of the future either.

我不记得他看过的视觉内容了，但我肯定能查出来？

I don't remember the visual he looked at, but I can I can definitely I can definitely find out?

萨拉已经不在WGSN了。

Sarah is not at WGSN anymore.

她后来创办了另一家公司，叫Soon Future Studies，以更学术的方式进行未来研究。

She went on to found another company called Soon Future Studies, which takes more of an academic approach to future research.

萨拉会撰写那些冗长、全面、多页、深入的分析，涵盖所有内容。

Sarah will write up these long, comprehensive, multi page, in-depth analyses about everything.

当我们研究趋势时，我和我们的团队总会从宏观、中观和微观三个层面来分析，因为这有助于我们区分哪些只是短暂的潮流，哪些具有持久生命力，真正能推动世界变革。

What I'll do and what we'll we'll do on our team when we're looking at trends is we'll we'll always look at it in a context of mega macro and micro, because that helps you differentiate between what's kind of a fad and what has longer legs and is really going to make a shift in the world.

趋势常常被误认为是潮流，但趋势和潮流是不同的。

Trends often get talked about like fads, but trends and fads are different.

趋势比潮流持续的时间更长。

Trends are longer than fads.

潮流通常是一种外观、产品或想法，只在人口中一小部分群体中迅速流行。

Fads are often a look or a product or an idea that gets really popular in a small subset of the population.

它们突然出现，又像来时一样迅速消失。

They hit, and then as quickly as they came, they go away.

但趋势具有共鸣，因为它击中了时代精神。

But a trend has resonance because it hits the zeitgeist.

莎拉·欧文认为，真正的趋势预测就在于将服装等微观趋势与更大的社会变革——即宏观趋势——联系起来。

That's what Sarah Owens says true trend forecasting is all about, connecting micro trends like clothing to larger societal shifts, aka mega trends.

从宏观层面来看世界，这种框架通常持续数十年，对我来说，这才是真正理解趋势在其所处时间维度中意义的方式。

The mega framing of the world, which is decades long, to me, that's really how you start to kind of talk about trends in their context of the time horizon they'll they'll exist in.

那么，你想要一份真正的趋势报告吗？

So do you want an actual trend report?

你想了解真正的宏观趋势是什么吗？

Do you want to know what the real megatrends are?

这是你的趋势报告。

Here's your trend report.

我们正在观察到人口两极分化。

We are seeing demographic polarization.

我们正在观察到财富不平等加剧。

We are seeing increasing wealth inequality.

我们正在观察到全球机构的弱化。

We are seeing a weakening of global institutions.

我们正在见证气候危机的展开。

We're seeing the climate crisis unfold.

此外，还有心理健康危机。

And then there's also the mental health crisis.

我可能漏掉了一些，还有更多。

I may be missing a couple and there's a lot more.

你不为此担心吗？

Aren't you worried about that?

我认为很多人看到你的宏观趋势后，会觉得：没错，这些正是让我夜不能寐的问题。

I think a lot of people could look at your macro trends and be like, yeah, those are all the things that keep me up at night.

我觉得是的。

I think so.

你的意思是，这些宏观趋势如此明显，以至于它们显得显而易见。

In the sense that you're saying that the mega trends were so in it that they seem obvious.

你是这个意思吗？

Is that what you mean?

是的。

Yeah.

尤其是对于像‘那接下来呢？’这样的问题。

And especially for like, well then what is this?

什么是趋势预测？

What is trend prediction?

是的。

Yeah.

我的意思是，任何人都能识别出趋势，无论是宏观、中观还是微观趋势。

I mean, I think anyone can identify a trend, whether it's a mega macro or micro.

但人们做不到的是讲述故事，或者理解这三大趋势相互交织的背景。

What people can't do is tell the story or see the context of the marriage of those trifecta coming together.

所以，是的，你完全可以生活在当今的现实环境中，感受到气候危机带来的压力。

So yes, you could exist in today's current climate and feel the burden of the climate crisis.

你可能会感到焦虑。

You could suffer from anxiety.

你能看到并发现这些宏观趋势，但你能理解它们之间的联系和影响吗？

You can see and spot the megatrends, can you understand the connections and the impact?

但这并不是说，全球制度弱化就意味着你会穿这种图案。

But it's not saying that, Oh, weakening global institutions means you're gonna be wearing this kind of pattern.

这并不是那么清晰明确的。

It's not that clean-cut.

你可以逆向推导出这些故事。

You can reverse engineer into those stories.

我认为现在很多趋势正在被逆向推导，或者至少有些趋势必须如此，因为现在有太多趋势了。

I think a lot of trends are getting reverse engineered right now, or at least some have to be because there are so many trends right now.

仙子垃圾风。

Fairy grunge.

芭蕾核心风。

Balletcore.

怪异核心风。

Weirdcore.

怪异核心的怪异之处。

The weird of cores.

让我们谈谈2000年代末的甜美美学。

Let's talk about the twee aesthetic from the late two thousands.

这种审美风格同时存在着比以往更多的潮流，但似乎潮流本身已经不再那么重要了。

This aesthetic There are simultaneously more trends than ever, and also it seems like trends don't really seem to matter anymore.

小丑风，也被称为马戏团风或小丑卷发风。

Clowncore, also known as circuscore or clown permscore.

这种对潮流的态度，确实和我2016年第一次采访莎拉时的感觉大不相同。

And this attitude towards trends really does feel different from the first time I talked to Sarah back in 2016.

现在潮流实在太多了，或者也许只是趋势预测者变多了？

There are just too many trends now, or maybe there are just more trend forecasters?

莎拉说，这仅仅是因为数据太多了。

Sarah says it's just because there's so much data.

因为你看到太多模式识别，把各种点连起来，于是就成了一个潮流。

Because you see so much pattern recognition and connect the dots and therefore, three's a trend.

你知道的，就是这样。

You know, there you go.

因此，你几乎可以仅凭默认方式，把任何东西都逆向推导成一个潮流。

And so all of a sudden, you could almost reverse engineer anything to be a trend just by the default.

当时有大量相关的资料、数据和研究。

There was so much collateral and data and research out there.

从某种意义上说，每样东西都几乎成了潮流。

Everything is almost a trend in a sense.

这种潮流的涌入制造了一种错觉，即几乎没有什么是不合潮流的。

This influx of trends creates the illusion that almost nothing is out of trend.

好像有太多风格同时在发生。

Like, are so many styles happening all at once.

你可以随意选择任何东西，一切似乎都开放且可以接受。

You can choose whatever you want, and everything is sort of up for grabs and okay.

为了证明这一点，莎拉·欧文非常友善地联系了她在WGSN的同事，要来了2018年的趋势报告，并发给了我。

And as if to prove that point, Sarah Owen did very kindly end up asking a colleague back at WGSN for the trend report from 2018, and she sent it to me.

果然，那些在2016年让我震惊的未来牛仔裤出现了。

And sure enough, there were the jeans of the future that had shocked me so much in 2016.

它们是阔腿牛仔裤，侧面有深色染色的装饰。

They were wide legged jeans with dark dyed accents on the sides.

这太好笑了。

And it was so funny.

我的意思是，当我第一次看到这条牛仔裤时，它们看起来非常新颖，以至于我惊得倒吸一口冷气。

I mean, when I first saw these jeans, they did look very new, so much so that I gasped at them.

但现在再看它们，我却有点无动于衷。

But looking at them now, I was sort of indifferent to them.

这些牛仔裤既不显得前卫，也不显得过时。

Those jeans did not look cutting edge, and they did not even look outdated.

它们对我来说根本没什么特别的。

They didn't really look like anything to me.

它们只是众多裤型中的一种，是浩如烟海的潮流中的又一个趋势。

They were just another style of pants, Another trend in the veritable ocean of trends.

一切都是潮流。

Everything is a trend.

我们不断被告诉，这就是一种潮流。

We're constantly being told that this is a trend.

那是一种潮流。

That is a trend.

哈珀时尚杂志的时尚新闻总监蕾切尔·塔什顿对谈论潮流感到厌倦。

Rachel Tashton, the fashion news director at Harper's Bazaar, is tired of talking about trends.

这很有趣。

It's funny.

现在发生的好多事情并不是预测。

A lot of what is happening now is not forecasting.

这更像是说某事已经发生了。

It's really like saying something is already happening.

而其中很多是因为社交媒体的推动。

And a lot of it is because so much of this is manufactured by social media.

本质上，社交媒体鼓励潮流，并促使很多人以相似的方式行动。

Like, by its nature, social media encourages trends and encourages many people to act in a similar way.

它们都毫无意义，因为太多了。

They're all sort of meaningless because there are so many of them.

这就像沙粒一样。

It's like grains of sand or something.

我想说，目前唯一真正的趋势就是‘趋势感’本身。

I would say probably the only real trend right now is, like, trendiness itself.

所以

So

我读了很多关于趋势预测的书，其中不少提到，许多趋势都会伴随着反趋势，而这与反弹不同。

I've been reading a lot of trend forecasting books, and a number of them have said that a lot of trends come with countertrends, and that's different from a backlash.

反趋势只是意味着两种对立的趋势可以同时流行。

A countertrend just means that two opposing trends can be in at the same time.

它们只是对同一组情境的相反反应。

They're just opposite reactions to the same set of circumstances.

极简主义可以和消费主义同时流行。

So minimalism can be in at the same time as consumerism.

24/7的持续连接可以和渴望断开连接、去森林里生活的愿望同时存在。

Twenty four seven connectivity can be in at the same time as the desire to disconnect and go live in the woods.

因此，尽管潮流本身可能是一种趋势，但我认为还存在一种反趋势。

And so while trendiness itself might be a trend, I think there is a countertrend.

一种完全远离潮流的趋势。

A trend that turns away from trends entirely.

并且这种趋势伴随着一种特定的风格。

And there's a look that goes with it.

看起来这像是对潮流的一种反应。

Well, it seems like it's a reaction to trends.

似乎人们和你一样感到厌倦了，他们觉得，好吧，这些就是无潮流风格的衣服。

It seems like people are tired like you are, and they're like, yeah, just these these are trendless clothes.

没错。

Right.

我确实觉得这其中有些道理。

I definitely think there's something to it.

我认为我对未来我们会穿什么已经有了些想法。

I think I do have an idea of what we will be wearing in the future.

这是一种如此显而易见的风格，以至于我根本没意识到它是一种风格。

It's a style so obvious that I didn't realize it was a style at all.

自我国建国初期以来，美国人就一直穿着这种风格的某种版本，而这种造型后来已传播到世界各地。

Americans have been wearing some version of this style since the early days of our nation, and this look has since been exported all around the world.

我认为我们未来将继续穿着这种风格的某种版本，而且我知道原因。

And I think we will continue to wear some version of this look going forward, and I think I know why.

但我需要借助本季全部的《兴趣单品》系列文章来向你们说明。

But I am going to need to use the entirety of this season of articles of interest to tell you.

很容易就会指向像WGSN这样的趋势预测公司，然后说：看吧？

It is so tempting to point to a trend forecasting company like WGSN and be like, See?

趋势是一场阴谋。

Trends are a conspiracy.

但WGSN只是众多公司中的一家。

But WGSN is just one company, one of many.

最终，无论设计师和制造商多么遵循WGSN的指引并遵从其预测，衣服仍需被购买，才能真正成为潮流。

And, ultimately, as much as designers and manufacturers can follow WGSN's lead and obey their predictions, the clothes still have to be purchased for them to actually make them in trend.

它们需要进入商店和零售商的货架才能成功，这意味着这些服装必须由像彼得这样的人来挑选。

They need to find their way into stores and retailers for them to be successful, which means the clothes need to be selected by someone like Peter.

我是一名服装采购员，专门负责男装采购。

I'm a I'm an apparel buyer, a men's a men's apparel buyer.

当我于2022年与彼得交谈时，他任职于一家大型在线时尚零售商，他的工作是决定这家大型在线商店要上架哪些商品，以及消费者实际能买到什么。

At the time I talked to Peter in the 2022, Peter worked for a very big online fashion retailer, and his job was to determine what this massive online shop would stock and what would actually be available for the consumer to buy.

我现在正在为2022年秋季推介我的潮流趋势。

I am pitching my trends for fall twenty two right now.

当然，彼得并不是根据自己的喜好来决定上架哪些商品。

And of course, Peter was not judging whatever he would want to stock.

他必须考虑消费者可能购买什么。

He had to think of what the consumer would be likely to purchase.

什么是流行的？

What is in trend?

什么与更广泛社会中的重大趋势相关？

What is connected to larger impactful forces in greater society?

因此，2022年彼得给我看一本1965年的书，这看似反直觉。

And so it seemed counterintuitive that in 2022, Peter would show me a book from 1965.

这是1965年出版的《Take Ivy》的英文译本。

It's an English translation of the 1965 book Take Ivy.

《Take Ivy》是对1965年常春藤盟校学生穿着风格的人类学研究。

Take Ivy was an anthropological study of what the students on Ivy League college campuses wore in 1965.

这本书的英文译本直到2010年才出版，我敢肯定，大约那时我在J.Crew见过它在售。

This English translation of the book didn't come out until 2010, and I'm pretty sure around that time I encountered it for sale at a J.

Crew。

Crew.

它最初是为日本市场用日语出版的。

Originally, it's published in Japanese for the Japanese market.

《Take Ivy》主要由美丽的年轻白人男生往返课堂、在拱门下闲逛、参加体育训练的照片组成，你很难分辨出具体是哪所大学，所有画面融合成一幅迷人的中世纪美国同性恋理想图景。

Take Ivy is mostly pictures of beautiful young white men walking to and from class, lounging in archways, going to sports practice, and you lose track of which college is which, and it all blends into a beautiful mid century homoerotic American dream.

但它实际上作为一项文化研究相当全面。

But it's actually quite comprehensive as a culture study.

书中还包含一些关于常春藤盟校学生和文化的短文。

So there are short essays about Ivy League students and culture.

书中还有关于不同服饰术语和各所大学的微型词典。

There are these miniature glossaries about different apparel terms, about the colleges themselves.

比如，它详细讨论了学校的建筑风格、校园规模有多大，以及学生需要自行车之类的事情，以此来支撑其关于文化的讨论。

Like, it talks a lot about the architecture of the schools, about how large the campuses are, how students need bicycles, that kind of thing, to inform the conversation that it's having about culture.

着装。

Dress.

天啊，要怎么解释这些大学生的穿着呢？

And my god, how to explain how these college guys are dressed?

常春藤风格很难用语言描述。

Ivy's style is kind of difficult to explain.

杰森·迪亚蒙德是一位作家，也是《GQ》的撰稿人。

Jason Diamond is a writer and contributor to GQ.

我只是告诉人们，先从一本叫《Take Ivy》的书开始。

I just tell people, you start with this book called Take Ivy.

在《Take Ivy》中，他们穿着卡其裤。

And in Take Ivy, they are wearing khakis.

比如乐福鞋和马德拉短裤。

Like loafers and, like, a pair of Madras shorts.

还有粗针毛衣和背心。

And chunky knit sweaters and sweater vests.

有个人穿着夹克和有领衬衫，但那种有领衬衫并不是你搭配西装时穿的那种。

There's a guy with a blazer and a collared shirt, but it's not like a collared shirt with that you'd wear with a suit.

这就是常春藤风格。

It's Ivy style.

在我看来，它看起来非常整洁。

It just looks so neat to me.

这实际上是更广为人知的‘预科生风格’的一种变体。

It's kind of a variation on the style more commonly known as preppy.

尽管一些真正的时尚狂热者肯定会因为我把常春藤风格称为预科生风格而生气。

Although some real diehard fashion nerds are definitely gonna get mad at me for calling Ivy preppy.

因为有些人会说，哦，常春藤风格和预科生风格完全是两回事。

Because some people say, oh, well, Ivy and preppy are totally different.

但我并不觉得它们真的有那么大区别。

And I don't really think they are.

你知道吗？

You know?

为什么不呢？

Why not?

我只是觉得它们是一个从另一个发展而来的。

I just think they're one developed from the other.

描述常春藤风格和预科生风格的区别，就像分辨摇滚乐和摇滚的区别一样。

Describing the difference between IV and preppy is like parsing the difference between rock and roll and rock.

确实有区别，但主要只是时间上的先后关系。

There is a difference, but it's mostly a matter of chronology.

所以目前，我会把常春藤和预科生这两个词互换使用。

So for now, I'm gonna use the terms IV and preppy interchangeably.

这完全是关于演变的。

It's all about evolution.

就像如果你想说Ivy、preppy之类的，从技术上讲，你是在回溯到那本书。

It's like if you wanna, like, say IV, preppy, whatever, technically, you are talking about going back to that book.

你谈论的就是那本。

You're talking about that one.

这简直就是这方面的圣经。

That's like, again, the bible for this.

《Take Ivy》是一份了不起的文献，因为这些男生看起来真的非常出色。

So Take Ivy is an amazing document because these guys really look fantastic.

但这并不是因为衣服本身。

And it's not for the clothes themselves.

这些服装相当保守。

The garments are pretty conservative.

关键是学生们是如何穿着这些衣服的。

It's about how the students are wearing this stuff.

所以这些家伙来自非常富裕的上层白人家庭，他们刻意穿得低调一点，但看起来却很酷。

So you have these guys who come from these, like, really well-to-do upper crust white families, and they're kind of going out of their way to dress down a little bit, but it looks kind of cool.

所以这是一种非风格的风格，甚至都不算反风格。

So it's sort of anti style without even being anti style.

因为这些家伙在做出一些选择。

Because these guys are making some choices.

比如卷起袖子，把衬衫叠穿在其他衬衫外面，或者把衬衫穿在毛衣外面。

You know, rolling up the sleeves, like layering shirts over other shirts, layering shirts over sweaters.

拉切尔·塔什顿对此非常推崇。

Rachel Tashton is all about it.

对我来说，这种服装最棒的地方就在于叠穿和以奇怪的方式卷起衣袖。

To me, that's what the best part about this clothing is like layering the things and like rolling things up in a strange way.

你看到过很多这样的照片：这些家伙去参加赛艇训练，穿着毛衣、短裤，还有运动短裤。

You know, there are such great images of like these guys going to crew practice, and they're wearing, like, sweaters and, like, shorts and, like, athletic shorts.

或者他们穿着卡其裤，但为了下水把裤脚卷起来。

Or they have their pant they have chinos on, but they're rolling them up because they're getting into the water.

这种源于实用性和自我塑造的风格，正是它如此有趣的原因。

Like, that sort of style that comes from utility and sort of this kind of self creation, that's what makes it really fun.

这就是日本《Take Ivy》的作者们如此着迷的地方。

And that's what the Japanese authors of Take Ivy are so fascinated by.

他们一再反复强调这一点，简直令人惊叹。

They keep coming back to this one point over and over again, like, wow.

这些孩子根本没在刻意打扮。

These kids aren't even trying.

他们只是随意套上这些衣服，但每个人看起来都如此独特、时尚且各不相同。

They're just tossing these things on, and yet they each look so unique and good and different from each other.

这正是服装所要表达的。

That's what the clothing is about.

《Take Ivy》如此受欢迎，正是因为你能看到同样有限的色系下，人们却做出了如此疯狂的搭配，你知道吗？

That's why Take Ivy is so popular because you see people given the same limited palette who are doing these ridiculous things, you know?

尤其是那本书里，穿这些衣服的人做出了许多非常奇特的选择。

There are really strange choices made by the people wearing those clothes, especially in that book.

这就是为什么我会告诉人们，回去看看那本书。

That's why I tell people, like, go back to the book.

回去看看《Take Ivy》，因为你看这些家伙，他们根本没在刻意打扮。

Like, go back to Take Ivy because, like, you look at these guys and they're not trying.

就是这样。

That's it.

如果你不是刻意为之却看起来很酷，那你就是酷。

That's like, if if you're not trying and you look cool, you're cool.

我真的没法反驳这一点。

Like, I can't really I can't fight that.

所以《Take Ivy》堪称一种文化经典，尤其在男性服饰爱好者中。

And so take Ivy is kind of a cult classic, especially for menswear nerds.

它在一定程度上定义了二十世纪中期的风格，并成为权威记录，因为没有美国人会想到去拍摄和记录这一切。

It's kind of helped define what mid century style was, and it's become sort of the definitive record because no American would have thought to photograph and observe all of this.

只有来自其他国家的访客才会花心思去整理并如此细致地识别这种风格。

Only someone visiting from another country would have bothered to catalog and recognize this look so thoroughly.

读到这位作家对男性穿乐福鞋不穿袜子的体验时，我觉得很有趣，他觉得这种打扮既颠覆又叛逆。

It was funny to me to read about this writer's experience of men in loafers without socks on and how subversive and rebellious he found that.

服装采购员彼得说，《Take Ivy》的作者们真正抓住了这种风格的潜台词。

Peter the menswear buyer says the authors of Take Ivy really nail it on the subtext.

他们知道，这种风格并不是为了在学习场合得体着装，而是这些学生真正玩弄的是阶级的符号。

They know that this is not a look about dressing appropriately for the occasion of learning, that what these students are really playing with are markers of class.

他们把牛仔裤剪成短裤。

They're, like, cutting denim into shorts.

他们把运动衫的袖子剪掉。

They're cutting the sleeves off of a sweatshirt.

他们光着脚在课堂之间走来走去。

Like, they're walking barefoot between classes.

对我来说，这之间存在着一种有趣的张力：一方面是明显的财富标志，但对这本书的作者们而言，真正的标志却是那些暗示着相反含义的东西。

And that was such an interesting tension for me between, like, markers of obvious wealth, but that the real signposts, at least for these people writing this book, are those things that suggest the opposite.

对吧？

Right?

就是这种毫不在意的态度。

Like, this kind of uncaredness.

但你不会看着这些衣服心想：嘿，每个人都穿得真好看。

But it's not like you would look at these clothes and be like, hey, everyone looks really good.

这些东西依然很流行。

This stuff is still in style.

嗯，这些确实很流行。

Well, this very much is.

彼得指着一件珊瑚色的开衫。

Peter pointed at a coral colored cardigan.

然后他系统地翻阅《Take Ivy》，一一指出

And then he went through Take Ivy methodically and pointed out

灯芯绒、格子呢。

Tweeds, tartans.

所有其他与他打算为2022年秋季采购的服饰相似的单品。

All the other items that were similar to what he was intending to purchase for fall twenty twenty two.

这种乐福鞋。

This kind of loafer.

这款是我今年秋天从Bleeped品牌买的。

This, I just bought from Bleeped Brand for fall twenty two.

不可能。

No way.

是的。

Yeah.

这种风格仍然在讨论之中。

This is still very much a part of the conversation.

预科生风。

Preppy

会反复回归。

comes back in and out.

是的。

Yeah.

你同意现在流行这种预科生风格吗？

You agree that it's a trend right now, the preppy thing?

是的。

Yes.

好吧。

Okay.

是的。

Yes.

非常流行。

Very much so.

天哪。

Oh my god.

简直太流行了。

So much so.

当然，我问了莎拉·欧文作为趋势预测师的看法。

Of course, I asked Sarah Owen for her trend forecaster take.

你确实能看到预科风格服装在主流市场中的体现。

You do see the manifestation of preppy clothing coming through the mainstream for sure.

如果我要当场开始交叉分析，谢谢艾弗里。

If I had to start to cross analyse why on the spot, thanks Avery.

它

It

这可能是因为人们希望在这个世界上获得一些掌控感。

might be about wanting some control in the world.

一种非常克制的审美。

Very controlled aesthetic.

它看起来非常整齐，似乎传递出一种视觉信号：哦，我一切都安排得井井有条。

Like it's very put together and it seems to kind of have this visual cue of being, oh, I've got my shit together.

或者也可能是，正如莎拉所说，看起来有教养变得流行，聪明变得有魅力。

Or it could be because, as Sarah says, looking educated is in and being smart is sexy.

当我们思考影响者面貌的变化时，我们注意到，五年前或十年前的影响者主要受生活方式、时尚和审美驱动。

We saw that when we thought about the changing face of influences and how we saw influences five, ten years ago being very lifestyle and fashion and aesthetic driven.

而现在，人们更关注谁有观点？

And now it's more about like, who's got an opinion?

谁是专家？

Who's an expert?

你关注的那个心理学家是谁？

Who's that psychologist you follow?

你关注的那位在推特上的工程师是谁？

Who's that engineer you follow on Twitter?

就像，谁想在TikTok上学习东西。

Like, who's wanna learn things on TikTok.

没错。

Yeah.

在这个虚假新闻和错误信息泛滥的世界里，人们渴望知识。

Like, people are hungry for knowledge in a world of fake news and misinformation.

但请注意，莎拉并没有给出我认为最显而易见的答案，即穿常春藤风格会让你看起来富有。

But do note that Sarah did not give what I thought would be the most obvious answer, which is that dressing Ivy makes you look rich.

它让你看起来上过私立学校，而且没有债务。

It makes you look like you went to private school and you have no debt.

它让你看起来可以毫无争议地走进耶鲁俱乐部，好像你会骑马一样——而在2022年，这种风格居然又流行起来，这简直毫无道理。

It makes you look like you can pop into the lobby of the Yale Club with no eyebrows raised, like you know how to ride a horse, which in 2022 makes no sense that it would be in trend.

我只是觉得，常春藤风格所承载的社会含义很难让人接受。

I just don't think that the social connotations of Ivy are easy to swallow.

德里克·盖伊为《Put This On》和他的个人网站《Die Workwear》撰稿。

Derek Guy writes for Put This On and his own website, Die Workwear.

人们并不一定想穿得像那些人。

People do not necessarily want to dress like these people.

这些人的本质其实就是富有的白人，像贵族老钱家族那样。

So These people being Basically like rich white people, like aristocrat old money people.

当我们对这个世界某些黑暗面有了更多政治意识时，要推销这种形象就变得困难了。

So it's hard to sell that image when we're a little bit more politically aware of what are some of the darker sides of that world.

没错。

Right.

但如果常春藤风格确实回来了，也许这意味着它不再只是富人白人的装扮。

But if Ivy is indeed back, maybe that means it's no longer the look of rich white people.

也许这种风格的含义正在发生变化，或者已经发生了变化。

Maybe the meaning of the look is shifting or has shifted.

我认为时尚的很大一部分就是通过图像来说服人们接受某些东西。

I think what a lot of fashion is is like convincing people of things through imagery.

它不一定是制作出优质的产品。

It's not necessarily making a great product.

来自《哈泼斯芭莎》的蕾切尔·塔什詹再次提到。

Rachel Tashjian of Harper's Bazaar again.

如今大多数设计师其实更像是造型师。

Most designers today are not really a lot of designers really are stylists.

对吧？

Right?

他们并不一定是在发明或创造全新的服装。

They're not necessarily, like, inventing or creating new clothes.

真正能做到这一点的人非常少。

There are very few who actually can do that.

而且

And also

这就像是找到了一种完全新颖的方式来遮盖肩膀。

It's like finding an entirely new way to, like, cover a shoulder.

嗯。

Mhmm.

没错。

Exactly.

实际上，如今的趋势不再像迷你裙流行或窄领带过时那样。

Essentially, these days, trends are less about, like, miniskirts are in or skinny ties are out.

某种程度上，这确实可能是真的。

I mean, to some degree, this can be true.

但更常见的是，风格并不关乎单件服装，而更关乎一种氛围。

But more often, looks are not about individual garments, and they're more about a vibe.

我觉得穿搭更多是一种社交语言，而不是艺术表达。

Like, I think of outfits not so much as artistic expression, but social language.

所以当人们搭配一套衣服时，我会把它看作是在写一句话。

So I think of when people put together an outfit, I think of it as in, like, writing a sentence.

一套穿搭就是一句话，表达‘我今天要做什么’。

An outfit is a sentence that says, this is what I'm doing today.

这反映了今天的天气情况。

This is what the weather is.

这展现了我是谁。

This is who I am.

正如男装作家德里克·盖所说，主流时尚常常借鉴各种原型。

So as menswear writer Derek Guy puts it, a lot of mainstream fashion references archetypes.

比如朋克、牛仔、狂欢者、蓝领工人。

The punk, the cowboy, the raver, the blue collar worker.

这些都是已经存在的参照框架。

These are frames of references that already exist.