196 - 摩根·豪塞尔带给加密货币投资者的10条永恒经验

听着。我是个非常乐观的人，但答案是否定的。绝对没有任何希望可言。我我我我敢打赌，我敢下重注，一百年后，我们还是会看到和1999年一模一样的泡沫，和房地产泡沫时期如出一辙的泡沫。随便挑一个泡沫来说吧。

Look. I'm a very optimistic guy, but the answer is no. There's absolutely no hope whatsoever. I I I I would bet I would bet so heavily that a hundred years from now, we're gonna have bubbles that would look exactly like they did in 1999 and exactly like they would have during the housing bubble. Like, pick your bubble.

一百年后，两百年后，情况依然会是这样。

A hundred years from now, two hundred years from now, that's gonna be the case.

欢迎来到Bankless，在这里我们探索互联网货币和互联网金融的前沿。这是如何入门、如何提升、如何抢占先机的方法。我是Ryan Sean Adams，和David Hoffman一起，我们将帮助你变得更加无银行化。朋友们，加密世界在周期中经历了许多变化，但有些东西始终未变。今天我们要讨论的就是那些不变的事物。

Welcome to Bankless, where we explore the frontier of Internet money and Internet finance. This is how to get started, how to get better, how to front run the opportunity. This is Ryan Sean Adams, and I'm here with David Hoffman, and we're here to help you become more bankless. Guys, a lot has changed in crypto throughout the cycles, but some things haven't. We're here to talk about the things that haven't changed.

本期节目中，我们邀请了作家兼投资者Morgan Housel，分享适用于加密货币的永恒投资智慧。针对周期的不同阶段，你需要了解以下几点：我们有熊市教训、牛市教训，还有市场冷淡期的教训。以下是几个要点：第一，为什么熊市虽然痛苦却必要且有益。

We've got timeless investing wisdom applied to crypto from writer and investor Morgan Housel on today's episode. So a few different things you need to know for different parts of the cycle. We've got lessons for the bear market, lessons for the bull market, and lessons for the apathy market. A few takeaways for you. Number one, why the bear market was painful, necessary, and yet good.

第二，为什么那些熬过熊市的人现在具备优势。第三，当市场狂热时，如何在牛市中管理你的大脑。第四，无论拥有多少财富，如何真正获得幸福。第五，除非你能提前识别，否则在牛市中你将陷入哪些陷阱。第六，乐观主义与悲观主义，如何平衡二者成为更好的投资者。

Number two, why those that survived the bear market now have an advantage. Number three, how to manage your brain during a bull market when things get frothy. Number four, how to actually be happy no matter how much wealth you have. Number five, the traps that you're going to fall into during the bull market unless you know how to spot them well in advance. Number six, optimism versus pessimism, how to balance them to become a better investor.

David，我本可以再列出10条这样的见解。嗯。因为我觉得今天这期节目的每分钟洞察力简直爆表。我们标题写了'加密货币的10个永恒教训'，但事实上可能有100个。对吧。多到数不清，我们其实也没仔细数过。

David, I could have been, like, listed 10 more of these Mhmm. Because I feel like the insights per minute on this episode today were absolutely off the charts. We put in the title 10 timeless lessons for crypto, but the truth is there's probably like a 100 here. Right. There's, like, too many to count, and we didn't really count them.

这期节目对你而言有什么重要意义？

What's the significance of this episode for you?

我认为这期节目最特别之处在于Morgan新书发布的时机，恰好与加密领域涌现的看涨情绪同步。我们即将进入一个牛市'啤酒眼镜'效应显现的时期，需要此类建议融入思维并深刻理解，以应对即将到来的牛市。因为正是在这个市场阶段，这些建议最难遵循，但若能践行将获得最大回报。

I think the most significant thing about this episode is the timing in which Morgan's book just happened to come out, along with all of the bullishness that's coming out of the crypto space. We are about to enter a time in which the bull market beer goggles are on, and we need advice like this to merge into our brain and have deep understanding of as we navigate that bull market. Because this is when the time in the market in which this advice is the hardest to follow, yet it is going to have the most ROI if you can follow it.

嗯。

Mhmm.

这就像是在锻炼你的大脑肌肉，你的审慎力，

This is like trying to flex your brain muscle, your diligence,

你的

your

作为投资者的自律之道。所以，比如，听这期节目，做笔记，听两遍，做你需要做的事，把这些信息融入你的大脑，因为它会在你驾驭牛市时，为你节省数倍的投资组合。这是永恒的智慧。这是财富增长策略。这是财富保值。

own discipline as an investor. And so, like, listen to this episode, write notes, listen to it twice, do something that you need to do to merge this information into your brain because it will save you multiples of your portfolio as you navigate the bull market. It is timeless wisdom. It's wealth generation strategy. It's wealth preservation.

而且，我想说，这也是完美的Ryan和David的节目，一部分投资，一部分心理学。

And it's also, I would say, just like the perfect Ryan and David episode, one part investing, one part psychology.

太棒了。

So good.

就像我说的，这一切的时机，我认为是完美的。

Like I said, just the timing of it all, I think is perfect.

是的。明智的投资者会赢。自律的投资者会赢。David，我认为这在加密货币中比在传统市场中更真实。所以我们希望你们喜欢这期与Morgan Housel的节目。

Yeah. The wise investor wins. The disciplined investor wins. I think this is even truer in crypto than it is in traditional markets, actually, David. And so we hope you enjoyed this episode with Morgan Housel.

他马上就到。我们马上开始。但在开始之前，我们要感谢使这一切成为可能的赞助商，包括你可以实践所有这些永恒的加密货币智慧的场所。那就是Kraken，这是我们2023年首推的交易所。如果你还没有账户，你还在等什么？

He'll be right on. We're gonna begin in a minute. But before we do, we wanna thank the sponsors that made this possible, including the venue in which you could practice all of this timeless crypto wisdom. That's Kraken, which is our number one recommended exchange for 2023. If you don't have an account, what are you waiting for?

去创建一个吧。

Go create one.

Kraken懂加密货币。Kraken在加密货币领域已经超过十年。作为行业中最大、最受信任的交易所之一，Kraken与我们所有人一起，见证加密货币的未来。人类历史是一部进步的故事。这是我们的一部分，根深蒂固。

Kraken knows crypto. Kraken's been in the crypto game for over a decade. And as one of the largest and most trusted exchanges in the industry, Kraken is on the journey with all of us to see what crypto can be. Human history is a story of progress. It's part of us, hardwired.

我们被设计成在任何地方寻求改变，改进，努力。如果任何事物都可以改进，为什么金融不行？加密货币是为现代世界设计的金融系统。即时、无需许可、全天候。它并不完美，而且没有任何事物会是完美的。

We're designed to seek change everywhere, to improve, to strive. And if anything can be improved, why not finance? Crypto is a financial system designed with the modern world in mind. Instant, permissionless, and twenty four seven. It's not perfect, and nothing ever will be perfect.

但加密货币是一项改变世界的技术，恰逢世界最需要它之时。这正是Kraken的使命——加速全球加密货币的普及，让你和全世界都能实现财务自由与包容。立即访问kraken.com/bankless，见证加密货币的无限可能。非投资建议。加密货币交易存在亏损风险。

But crypto is a world changing technology at a time when the world needs it the most. That's the Kraken mission, to accelerate the global adoption of cryptocurrency so that you and the rest of the world can achieve financial freedom and inclusion. Head on over to kraken.com/bankless to see what crypto can be. Not investment advice. Crypto trading involves risk of loss.

Payward Ventures Inc（以Kraken名义运营）为美国及美属领地客户提供加密货币服务。MetaMask投资组合是你探索DeFi世界的一站式门户，如今跨链桥接不再令人望而生畏。凭借有竞争力的费率和便捷的路径，MetaMask投资组合的桥接功能让你轻松通过主流一层和二层网络实现代币跨链转移。你只需选择起始网络和目标网络，MetaMask便会为你筛选验证最去中心化、最易用且可靠的桥接平台。

Cryptocurrency services are provided to US and US territory customers by Payward Ventures Inc, PVI doing business as Kraken. MetaMask portfolio is your one stop shop to navigate the world of DeFi, and now bridging seamlessly across networks doesn't have to be so daunting anymore. With competitive rates and convenient routes, MetaMask portfolio's bridge feature lets you easily move your tokens from chain to chain using popular layer one and layer two networks. And all you have to do is select the network you want to bridge from and where you want your tokens to go. From there, MetaMask vets and curates the different bridging platforms to find the most decentralized, accessible, and reliable bridges for you.

要把握加密货币领域最热门的机遇，你需要能接入多元网络——而MetaMask投资组合让这一切变得无比简单。与其在众多桥接方案中大海捞针，只需点击MetaMask扩展程序的桥接按钮，或访问metamask.i0/portfolio即可开始。Arbitrum正通过一系列安全的以太坊扩容方案加速Web3生态发展。数百个项目已部署在Arbitrum One上，形成繁荣的DeFi和NFT生态；Arbitrum Nova正快速成为Web3游戏中心，Reddit等社交dApp也选择Arbitrum作为家园。

To tap into the hottest opportunities in crypto, you need to be able to plug into a variety of networks, and nobody makes that easier than MetaMask portfolio. Instead of searching endlessly through the world of bridge options, click the bridge button on your MetaMask extension or head over to metamask.i0/portfolio to get started. Arbitrum is accelerating the web three landscape with a suite of secure Ethereum scaling solutions. Hundreds of projects have already deployed on Arbitrum one with flourishing DeFi and NFT ecosystems. Arbitrum Nova is quickly becoming a web three gaming hub, and social dApps like Reddit are also calling Arbitrum home.

现在Arbitrum Orbit更让你能利用其安全扩容技术构建专属的三层网络，获得可互操作的定制化权限与专属吞吐量。无论你是开发者、企业还是用户，Arbitrum Orbit都能助你将项目推向新高度。这些技术均继承以太坊的安全性与去中心化特性，提供直观、熟悉且完全兼容EVM的开发者体验——更快的交易速度与显著降低的Gas费。立即访问Arbitrum.io加入社区、查阅开发文档、跨链资产，开启你的Arbitrum首款应用构建之旅。

And now Arbitrum Orbit allows you to use Arbitrum's secure scaling technology to build your own layer three, giving you access to interoperable customizable permissions with dedicated throughput. Whether you are a developer, enterprise, or user, Arbitrum Orbit lets you take your project to new heights. All of these technologies leverage the security and decentralization of Ethereum and provide a builder experience that's intuitive, familiar, and fully EBM compatible. Faster transaction speeds and significantly lower gas fees. So visit Arbitrum dot I o where you can join the community, dive into the developer docs, bridge your assets, and start building your first app with Arbitrum.

体验Web3开发的本质——安全、快速、低成本且无摩擦。

Experience web three development the way it was always meant to be, secure, fast, cheap, and friction free.

Bagel Station特辑：Morgan Housel是Collaborative Fund的作家兼投资合伙人。一年前我们曾邀请他探讨其著作《金钱心理学》中的原则——就摆在我身后的书架上（不知你们能否看到），这是我过去十年读过最棒的投资类书籍之一。那期节目被我列为加密投资者必听的十大节目之首，尤其适合刚开启Bankless之旅的朋友。而今天，Morgan将带来更多永恒智慧——他的新书刚刚出版。

Bagel station, Morgan Housel is a writer and investment partner at the Collaborative Fund. We had Morgan on a year ago to talk about the principles in his book called The Psychology of Money. I got it right behind me on the bookshelf. I don't know if you could see it, It's one of the best investing books that I've read in the last decade, and that episode is my recommendation for one of our top 10 must listen to episodes for crypto investors, particularly if you're starting on the bankless journey. But today, Morgan brought some new timeless advice for us because he's just published a new book.

这本名为《永恒不变》的新作，是一部关于亘古不变真理的指南，包含23个犀利故事，揭示人类社会与生活方式的永恒真谛。朋友们，在我们步入加密牛市之际，这些智慧尤为重要。Morgan，欢迎来到Bankless——应该说欢迎回来。

It's called the same as ever, and this is a guide to what never changes. It's a series of 23 punchy stories, timeless truths about people's societies and how to live. This, my friends, is important wisdom as we go into the crypto bull market. Morgan, welcome to Bankless. Welcome back, I should say.

是的，Ryan、David，感谢邀请。非常期待这次对话。

Yeah. Ryan, David, thanks for having me. Looking forward to it.

好的老兄。让我们从这本书的主题开始——为什么你要聚焦于不变的事物？不变的东西不是挺无趣的吗？为什么不探讨新事物？

Alright, man. Let's start with the theme of this book. Why are you focusing on stuff that's the same? Isn't the same stuff boring? Like, why not new things?

正因为它无趣，所以我们总是忽视它——但这往往让我们自食其果。我从事金融写作已近十八年，这段旅程中让我深感沮丧的是：整个行业对任何事情的预测都糟糕透顶——无论是下一轮熊市、经济衰退还是其他任何事。今早我刚想到个典型例子：记得应该是在《财富》杂志上...

It is boring, which is why we don't pay attention to it, but that's always at our own detriment. So I've been a financial writer for going on eighteen years now, and a big part of that journey and what I've written about was just how, like, frustrated, cynical, disgruntled I became at how bad the entire industry was at forecasting. The next bear market, the next recession, like anything, no matter what it was. I mean, here's one little example of this that I was just thinking about this morning. I remember I'm pretty sure it was in Fortune magazine.

那是某本大型商业杂志。他们在1999年刊登了一篇文章，题为‘未来十年的十大股票’。列出的都是些看似安全的蓝筹股，号称能让你在未来十年高枕无忧。我发誓，名单上有安然、美国国际集团、柯达——简直就像是在列举那些后来破产的公司。

It was one of the big business magazines. They published an article in 1999 that was 10 stocks for the decade ahead. And it was like 10 safe blue chip stocks that, like, you can count on for the decade ahead. And I swear, it was Enron, AIG, Kodak. It was like it's just like go down the list of the companies that went out of business.

所以这说明了——所有人都清楚整个圈子（不仅是媒体圈，还包括经济学家、理财顾问、分析师、投资组合经理）在预测未来方面的表现有多糟糕。面对这种认知，你有两种选择：要么更加愤怒，成为宿命论者，认为‘没人知道任何事，干脆别尝试’；要么坦然接受现实。

So this is one like, everyone knows how bad the community is, not just the media community, but economists, financial advisers, analysts, portfolio managers at predicting what's gonna happen next. So there's two things you can do with that realization. You can become even more angry about it and just a fatalist and say, nobody knows anything. Don't even try. Or you can say, okay.

什么才是永恒不变的？我们确实无力预测未来的变化——这话或许过于绝对，但对大多数人而言确实如此。但如果你纵观经济史（其实不仅是经济史），会发现人类总是在重复相同的行为模式：我们对贪婪、恐惧、风险和不确定性的反应方式亘古未变。

What does never change? We have no ability to predict what is going to change. That's probably too blanket of a statement, but it rounds to that for most people. But if you look across economic history, and not just economic history, but a lot of history, it's the same behaviors over and over and over again. It's like how we respond to greed and fear and risk and uncertainty that never changes.

如果你阅读一百年前、两百年前的金融危机记载，会发现历史总在重演。于是我开始思考：好吧，那我们就专注于这些永恒不变的事物。

And if you read about financial crises from a hundred years ago, two hundred years ago, it's the same thing. It's the same thing over and over and over again. So then I was like, okay. Well, let's just focus on that. Let's just focus on what we know is never gonna change.

我完全无法预测下次熊市何时来临，但我确切知道人们会如何反应、会产生什么想法、会有什么感受——因为这些从未改变。这就是我的思考路径：始于挫败感，继而寻找积极出路，而非变得更加愤世嫉俗。

I have no idea when the next bear market's gonna come, but I know exactly how people are gonna respond to it and what they're gonna think about it and how they're gonna feel because that's never changed. So that was kind of where it came into play for me, was just starting with a frustration and then saying, like, okay. Well, what's the positive way out of that observation rather than just becoming more of a cynic?

摩根，请允许我对即将讨论的内容做个预测。有句老笑话：一条鱼游过另一条鱼时问‘水怎么样？’，对方回答‘什么是水？’。这暗示着——太多频繁发生的事情反而让我们视而不见。

Morgan, if I can make a prediction about the content that we are about to discuss. There's that old quip of one fish swims past the other and says, how's the water? I think, like, the the fish replies, what's water? Right? Implying that, like, there are so many things that happen so frequently that we just can't identify it.

我们‘Bankless’播客前几期就在探讨如何识别货币——因为它本是如此隐形的力量，当我们真正直面它时，思维会突然开窍，眼前豁然开朗。我感觉接下来与你探讨的诸多课题都会如此：世界上有太多我们因习以为常而未能觉察的基本运行法则——这就是我的预测。

I think the bankless version of this was, like, our first few episodes was about identifying money because it's such an invisible force that we never really approach and attack head on that when you do, your brain opens up, and all of a sudden, there's a world that's expanded to you. Yeah. I feel like that's about what we're about to get with you in a variety of different lessons. There are so many fundamental truths about the way that the world works that we just are not awoke to because of how, like, default they are, how common denominator that are. That's my prediction about this.

我最欣赏这点的是——虽然我一直公开表示自己并非加密货币投资者，但也不是那种全盘否定认为‘加密货币注定完蛋’的人。

And here's what I love about this. I've been pretty open. I'm not a crypto investor. I'm not a crypto, you know, completely negative. It's all going to hell.

同样，我也不认为它全是骗局。关键在于：加密投资者、指数基金投资者、市政债券投资者之间的行为模式存在大量共通点——这与金钱心理学同理。

It's all a joke. I'm not that person either. But here's why I think that doesn't matter in this, and this is the same for psychology and money. The overlap between the behaviors among a crypto investor versus an index fund investor versus a mutual like a municipal bond investor. There's a lot of overlap there.

人们对贪婪、恐惧、风险和不确定性的反应如出一辙。作为财经作家，我热爱的工作方式其实是：少读财经资料，多涉猎医学、军事、物理等各领域历史，从中发现那些与投资行为高度契合的永恒人性。

How people respond to greed, fear, risk, uncertainty, it's all the same. And so much of what I've loved about the kind of research that I get to do is I'm a financial writer, but I actually don't read or research that much about finance. I love reading about all kinds of different history, all kinds of different fields, and recognizing when those behaviors in medicine or military or, like, physics or take any field and seeing how how they respond to these topics applies perfectly to investing.

摩根，我还有另一个想法。你在谈论你的挫败感。你决定将金融行业里所有的喧嚣带来的挫败感转化为一本书，《金钱心理学》，现在又有了这本书。我仍然预测，像你、像我、可能像大卫这样的人，那些倾听并实际应用这些建议和智慧的人，还是会继续感到沮丧。是的。

Morgan, so another thought I have. You're talking about your frustration. You decided to channel that frustration with all of the, you know, noise in the the finance industry into a book, The Psychology of Money, and now kind of this book. I still predict that people like you, people like me, maybe people like David, people who are listening to this advice and this wisdom and actually applying it will still continue to be frustrated. Yeah.

因为我认为我们仍然是少数真正应用这些教训的人。哦，所以我放眼大局。加密货币可能即将进入下一个牛市。摩根，我向你保证，我们会犯下与上一轮牛市中完全相同的错误，而且我们会一遍又一遍地重复这些错误。这对于经历过多次市场周期的人来说，让我感到沮丧。

Because I think we are still in the minority of people who are actually applying these lessons. Oh, so I'm zooming out. Crypto is probably about to enter a next bull market. And, Morgan, I guarantee you, we are going to make many of the exact same mistakes we made in the previous bull market, and we're gonna do it over and over and over again. And that frustrates me for folks that have been through many market cycles.

就是你看着这一切，心里想着，又要重蹈覆辙了，对吧？我们会做一模一样的事。这本书里有没有希望打破这个循环，还是说希望仅存在于个人层面，让个人能够觉醒并意识到，嘿，我不必这么做。我能看到其他愚蠢的人类在重复同样的错误，但我可以选择不参与。

It's just you're looking at this, and you're like, it's gonna happen again, isn't it? We're gonna do the exact same thing. Is there any hope in this book of breaking us out of that cycle, or is the hope only at the individual level that an individual can kind of wake up and be like, hey. I don't have to do this. I can see all the other dumb humans repeating the same mistakes, but I don't have to do it.

或者有没有希望我们作为一个社会、一个行业、一个市场，能够真正打破这个循环？听着。

Or is there hope that we could actually break this cycle as kind of a a society, as an industry, as a, you know, a a market? Look.

我是个非常乐观的人，但答案是否定的。完全没有丝毫希望。我可以非常肯定地打赌，一百年后，我们还是会遇到和1999年一模一样的泡沫，和房地产泡沫时期如出一辙。随便挑一个一百年、两百年后的泡沫，情况都会是这样。你可以自信地这么说，有几个原因。

I'm a very optimistic guy, but the answer is no. There's absolutely no hope whatsoever. I would bet so heavily that a hundred years from now, we're gonna have bubbles that would look exactly like they did in 1999 and exactly like they would have during the housing bubble. Like, pick your bubble a hundred years from now, two hundred years from now, that's gonna be the case. You can state it confidently for a couple reasons.

其中一个原因是，1999年和2007年的泡沫与一百年前、两百年前的情况完全一样。这是同样的故事在不断重演。我认为，说我们会吸取教训再也不会有泡沫，等同于说我们吸取了教训再也不会有战争。这种想法很有趣，就像在幻想，那样的未来该有多美好？

One of which is that the bubbles of '99 and 2007 are exactly how they played out a hundred years ago and two hundred years ago. It's the same it's the same thing over and over again. And I think to say to make a statement along the lines of we will learn our lesson and never have another bubble is equivalent to saying we've learned our lesson and we'll never have another war. Like, it's very fun to think about. It's very just like, oh, wouldn't that future be great?

当然，我们应该吸取教训，因为每次战争后人们都会觉得，天啊，那太蠢了。为什么？我们怎么可能做出那种事？我们再也不会那样做了。但你会的。

And, of course, we should learn our lesson because after every war, there's some sense of like, god, that was so dumb. Like, why? How could we have possibly done that? We'll never do that again. But you will.

当然会。金融领域也是如此，尤其是泡沫。《一如既往》中有一章谈到平静孕育疯狂，这其实就是繁荣与萧条的根源。我喜欢这个故事，关于上世纪六十年代一位名叫海曼·明斯基的经济学家。六十年代，整个科学界充满了乐观主义。

Of course, you will. And it's the same for finance, particularly with bubbles. There's a chapter in Same As Ever that talks about calm plants the seeds of crazy, and it's really just like the origin of boom and bust. And I love there's a story about this economist back in the nineteen sixties named Hyman Minsky. And during the nineteen sixties, there was a lot of, like, scientific optimism across all scientific communities.

比如，我们刚刚登上了月球，消灭了小儿麻痹症。所以有一种强烈的信念，如果聪明人齐心协力，我们可以解决世界上任何问题。六十年代的许多经济学家聚在一起说，是时候消灭经济衰退了。我们需要研究货币政策和财政政策的科学，确保永远不会再有经济衰退。说实话，当你刚刚登上月球时，觉得避免两个季度的GDP负增长似乎并不疯狂。

Like, we had just landed on the moon and, like, eradicated polio. So there's this big surge of, like, if smart people put their heads together, we can solve any problem in the entire world. And a lot of economists back in the sixties came together and said, it's time to eradicate recessions. We need to figure out the science of monetary policy and fiscal policy to make sure that we will never have another recession again. And, honestly, when you've just landed on the moon, it doesn't seem that crazy to think that you can avoid two quarters of negative GDP.

当然，试图解决这个问题似乎不是什么大事。海曼·明斯基说，胡说八道。这永远不会发生。你们永远无法消灭经济衰退。

Sure. Like, it doesn't seem like that big of a deal to try to figure this out. Hyman Minsky said, bullshit. It's never gonna happen. You are never ever gonna eradicate recessions.

于是他提出了一个名为金融不稳定假说的理论。简而言之，粗略概括就是：如果经济长期不衰退，人们会变得非常乐观。当人们乐观时，就会大量举债。而当债务积累到一定程度，最终必然导致衰退。所以他的观点是，缺乏衰退恰恰会催生下一次衰退。

And he came up with this idea called the financial instability hypothesis. And very briefly, to grossly, generalize it, it basically says, if you never have a recession, people get very optimistic. When they get optimistic, they go into lots of debt. And when they go into lots of debt, you're eventually gonna have a recession. So he was like, look, the lack of recessions is what creates the next recession.

因此，如果你试图消除经济衰退，实际上就是在为未来制造一场大规模衰退埋下伏笔。这个道理同样适用于投资市场、股票市场和加密货币市场。如果股市永不下跌，风险也就不复存在。

So if you, like, if you eliminated recessions, you would just guarantee a massive recession in the future. And the same thing applies to investing markets, stock markets, crypto markets. If the stock market never went down, there would be no risk.

没错。

Right.

如果没有风险，人们自然会理性地将估值推得极高。而当估值过高时，市场对不确定性将极度敏感，崩盘就在所难免。这就是为什么我们永远无法从历史中吸取教训。平静孕育疯狂。正如杰米·米斯克所说：稳定本身就会引发不稳定。

If there's no risk, you would very rationally bid valuations up very high. And when valuations get very high, you're gonna have a crash because the market's so fragile to uncertainty at that point. So I think that's why we will never learn from these. Calm plants the seeds of crazy. What Jaime Mieske said was stability is destabilizing.

事物越趋于稳定，就越容易走向失稳。因此每次市场崩盘或经济衰退时，人们总是忙着追责——是谁搞砸了？这是谁的过错？因为系统被破坏了。

The more stable something becomes, the more it is pushed towards destabilization. And so during every market bust or recession, there's always a finger pointing. Like, who screwed up here? Whose fault was this? Because you broke the system.

在某种程度上，这种归责通常有一定道理。但当你真正领悟明斯基的思想后就会明白：不，这只是任何资本主义社会的正常运作机制。所以我的结论是：你永远无法摆脱这个循环。试图消除它只会让情况变得更糟。

And to some extent, that's usually true to some degree. But when you really take Minsky's ideas to heart, you realize, like, no. This is just a normal functioning of any capitalistic society. And so to me, the takeaway from that is you're never gonna get rid of it. You're never gonna get rid of it because if you try to get rid of it, it literally just makes it worse.

正因如此，我本质上是个乐观主义者。但要回答你的问题——确实没有任何希望可言。

So that's why I'm an optimistic person. But to answer your question, there's no hope whatsoever.

有意思。我注意到你书的开篇就声明是写给理性乐观主义者的。或许你就是这样的摩根，一个理性的乐观主义者。

Yeah. It's interesting. I noticed the very beginning of your book, you kind of addressed it to for the reasonable optimist. Maybe that's what you are Yes. Morgan, is a reasonable optimist.

任何理性的人都可能得出与你相同的结论：我们永远无法打破这个循环，所以别再徒劳尝试了。我们在加密货币领域确实经历过平静期，也见证过疯狂时刻。书中有23条经验教训，虽然无法全部讨论，但我想把对话分成三个部分，每个部分对应不同阶段的建议。

And anyone who's reasonable, maybe they come to the conclusion that you have, which is we're never gonna break out of this cycle. So let's stop trying. And we've certainly seen our periods of calm, and we've certainly seen our periods of crazy in crypto. And there are 23 different lessons in this. I don't think we'll have time to touch on them all, but what I wanna do is I wanna break this into three different kind of sections of the conversation for different lessons, different advice that applies to every single one of these three sections.

首先是熊市建议。当我们处于低谷时，书中哪些原则最打动我；其次是牛市建议。当市场繁荣亢奋时，我们最该听取哪些教训；最后是介于牛熊之间的中性市场建议。

The first is bear market advice. So when we're feeling low, when we're in the bear market, some of the principles from your book that spoke most to me. And then bull market advice. When things are going really well, when things are exuberant, what lessons should we be listening to most then? And then the advice when you're in between is neither bull nor bear.

我们称之为建设市场，或者更准确地说，当一切变得极其无聊而你渴望有所行动时，就叫它沉闷市场。让我们从熊市谈起，因为所有收听Bankless的听众都对它印象深刻。显然，加密货币最近正处于熊市。摩根，上次你来节目时是2022年9月，那时加密市场已陷入熊市，随后我们又目睹了更多糟糕的事情发生。

We call it the build market or maybe more accurately, the board market when things are just really boring and you feel like you wanna do something. So let's start with the bear market because that has been impressed upon everyone listening at Bankless. Certainly, crypto has been in a bear market recently. The last time you were on, it was September 2022, and we were already in a bear market in crypto, Morgan. And then we saw a lot more shit happen.

明白吗？因为两个月后，FTX事件爆发了，那是2022年11月。我想许多收听Bankless的加密货币投资者，那一刻都深刻体会到了谦卑的含义。如今我们正逐渐走出阴影，但伤痕犹在。

Okay? Because two months later, FTX happened, and that was November 2022. And I think a lot of people who are listening to bank lists and crypto investors, they got a massive dose of humility at that point. We now are coming out of this. We have wounds.

我们带着伤疤。实际上你书的最后一章就叫《伤口会愈合，疤痕永留存》。能谈谈伤痕的价值吗？有没有可能这些痛苦某种程度上对我们是有益的？对此你怎么看？

We have scars. It's actually the last chapter of your book is called wounds heal and scars last. Can you talk about the value of scars? Is there any case that some of this pain was actually good for us? What would you say about that?

我甚至不会用好坏来定义它，关键在于每个人都带着生活的伤痕。因此，基于各自的经历，我们对世界的看法必然不同。即使年龄相仿、教育背景相似、阅读相同的信息，我的人生轨迹与你迥异。每个人都是如此。所以人们总以为自己是在客观看待世界，试图理性理解世界，但实际上每个人都像一组镜子，反射着他们的人生经历。

I wouldn't even frame it as good or bad, but it's just the idea that everybody has their scars from life. And therefore, everyone, based off of the personal experiences that they've had, I view the world differently than you do. Even if we're roughly the same age and same education, we read the same information, I've lived a different life than you have. And to everybody, everyone is like that. So everyone thinks that they are looking at the world objectively and trying to figure out the world objectively, but everyone is just like a set of mirrors reflecting what they've experienced in life.

我在那章开头举了个例子：如果你开车经过华盛顿特区的五角大楼，那里完全看不到9·11的痕迹。他们重建了大楼，重新种上树木，没有任何迹象显示22年前有飞机撞击过那栋建筑。但如果你沿路向南一英里到里根机场，9·11的伤痕无处不在。

And I use the example in the start of that chapter of, if you drive past the Pentagon in Washington DC, there's no sign whatsoever of nine eleven. They rebuilt the building. They put the trees all back. There's not a single mark that a plane hit that building twenty two years ago. But if you go one mile down the road to Reagan Airport, the scars of nine eleven are everywhere.

脱鞋、解腰带、取出液体物品——当你通过安检时，那些伤痕处处可见。我认为这个概念适用于许多事情，比如大萧条。

Take your shoes off. Take your belt off. Take your liquids off. You know, when you're going through security, the scars of it are everywhere. And I think that idea applies to so many things of, like, the great depression.

看，到1940年代大萧条就结束了，消失了。我们重回新高，但大萧条的疤痕一直留存至今。仍有些人——如果你的父母经历过大萧条，他们会教你XYZ关于钱财如何轻易流失的道理，这些至今仍在影响人们的行为。

Look. By the nineteen forties, it was done. It was gone. We're back at new highs, but the scars of the Great Depression lasted through today. There are still people who, you know, if your parents lived through the Great Depression, they taught you and told you x, y, and z about how you can lose your money so easily, and that is influencing behaviors at this moment.

即使大萧条的伤口早已愈合，疤痕依然存在。所以关键在于，每个人都是其经历的映射，而由于经历迥异，我们对世界的看法也完全不同。就像我之前说的，我不是加密货币投资者，我说不清具体原因，也无法条理分明地解释为什么不做这类投资。

Even if the scars or, you know, the wounds of the depression are done, the scars are still lasting. So the idea that just everyone is a reflection of the experiences that they've had, and since everyone has had very different experiences, we all view the world completely differently. And look, as I said earlier, I am not a crypto investor. I couldn't really tell you why that is. I couldn't be able to articulate x, y, and z of why I'm not.

但我敢打赌，如果让我在心理医生的沙发上躺几个小时，我们准能追溯到成年后的某些经历，这些经历让我选择现在的投资方式而非你的方式。这不是因为我们彼此对立，而是因为我们本就是不同的人在平行对话。这个观点尤为重要，尤其对于像加密货币这样充满争议、喧嚣浮夸的资产类别。人们很容易忽略，在每次金融争论中，当人们意见相左时——

But I bet if you put me on the therapist's couch for a couple hours, we would tie it back to some experience that I've had in my adult life that said, I would rather invest the way that I do today than invest the way that you do. It's not because we disagree with each other. It's because we're different people talking over each other. I think that's a big point, particularly with an asset class like crypto that tends to be controversial, loud, hand wavy. It's easy to miss that every financial debate where you have people disagreeing with each other.

十有八九，人们并非真正对立，而是不同风险承受能力、不同时间跨度、不同目标的人在平行对话。这在金融市场太常见了：看着别人做出不同选择就说'你疯了'、'太蠢了'、'为什么要那样做？'

Nine times out of 10, the people don't actually disagree with each other. It's people with different risk tolerances, different time horizons, different goals talking over each other. And so that's very common in financial markets to look at other people making other decisions and say, you're crazy. You're dumb. Why are you doing that?

你应该像我这样做这件事，不要认为金融领域没有正确答案。我们某种程度上都是生活中所受创伤的映射。就像我常说的，我在投资观念上有什么改变？我想十年前，我更倾向于认为投资只有一种正确方式。

You should be doing this thing that I'm doing without this idea that there is no right answer in finance. We're all just kind of mirrors of the scars that we've been put through in life. And so as I I always talk about, like, what's a thing that I've changed my mind about in investing. I think ten years ago, I was much closer to the idea of, no. There is one right way to invest.

那就是我的方式。如果你用不同方法，你就是错的。这大概是我当时的信念。而现在我完全变成了：只要对你有用，尽管去做。

It's the way that I do it. And if you're doing it differently, you're doing it wrong. I think that's kind of what that's kind of how I believed. And now I'm just so far of just like, whatever works for you, just do that. Yeah.

尽管去做。方法有千万种。基努·里维斯有句很棒的话：'我年纪大了不想和人争辩。就算有人说二加二等于五，只要对你有用，开心就好。'如果对你有用，就继续吧——年纪大了真不想争论。

Just do that. There's a million ways to do it. There's this great quote from Keanu Reeves where he's like, I'm too old to argue with people. And even if they say two plus two equals five, like, if it's working for you, like, just have fun, man. If it's working for you, just just go down too old to argue with people.

我觉得正因为我相信每个人都有独特伤痕，而我在财务问题上也是如此。

And I feel like I because of my belief that everyone is kind of scarred in their own way, and I am the equivalent of that with financial matters.

我想试试能不能抛砖引玉。摩根，我们都对心理学感兴趣，我在Bankless播客上逮着机会就会提到这个——人类大脑中负面经验的学习记忆机制，特别是杏仁核（大脑的恐惧、压力和创伤中心，情绪发源地）与海马体（记忆形成区域）的紧密关联。负面记忆的编码强度是其他记忆的十倍，因为人类对恐惧有极强的规避本能。

I wanna see if I can underhand you something because I think you'll be able to take it and run. You and I, Morgan, have shared an interest in psychology, and I bring this up basically any given moment I can on the Bankless podcast. I wanna talk about this specifically the way that, like, lessons and memories are formed in a negative perspective with parts of the human brain, which is the amygdala, which is the fear center of the brain, the fear and stress and trauma center of the brain where emotions get spawned, and then the hippocampus, which is where memories form. And these things are really, really close. Negative memories get encoded into people at like 10 X the rate as any other type of memory, because humans have this very strong aversion to fear.

这种对恐惧痛苦的强烈规避特性，如何影响了你总结教训的方式？

How does this component, how does this property of the way that we encode lessons, this very strong aversion to fear and pain, how does this, like, work its way into your lesson?

让我以写作者身份来说吧，你们媒体人应该也有共鸣——一篇好评就像微风拂过：'哦这篇评论不错，他们喜欢这个播客/这本书'，三秒钟后就忘了。

Well, let me tell you how it works for me as a writer. I'm sure you guys can relate this too being in media. One good review kinda just waves over you. You know? It's like, oh, that was a good review.

但一条差评或负面评论会让我耿耿于怀...

They like the podcast. They like the book. Okay. Great. I forget about it three seconds later.

持续很久

A negative review, a negative comment can stick with me for

整整一个月。天啊摩根，你看过YouTube评论吗？那简直是人间至暗。

a month. Oh my god, Morgan. Have you ever read YouTube comments? They're the absolute freaking worst.

我尽量不去看，因为我知道那里会是什么样子。那是个污水坑。但即使你读YouTube评论，如果有人留言说，嘿，瑞恩和大卫，超爱你们的播客，太棒了。

I try not to because I know it's gonna be there. It's a cesspool. But even if you read the YouTube comments, if there's a guy saying, hey. Ryan and David, love your podcast. So great.

我敢保证，你们十秒钟后就会忘记这事。对吧？它就像一阵风从你耳边吹过。我认为这种对坏消息的排斥，或者说你把坏消息看得太重，而好消息就像，好吧，随便啦。

I guarantee you, you guys forget about it ten seconds later. Right? It does like that blows right over you. And I think so that just aversion to bad news or just like you take bad news so seriously and good news is like, alright. Like, whatever.

就这么过去了。我觉得这种社交层面的评论心态也适用于投资。就像常说的那句老话——亏损的痛苦远大于盈利的喜悦。翻倍赚钱？嗯，挺酷的，感觉不错。

Just move along. I think that idea, like, socially with the comments applies to investing as well. So the idea that, you know, the very common this is almost, like, cliche to say that losses hurt more than gains feel good. So doubling your money, like, cool. Feels great.

比如，好吧，酷，资产翻倍了，太棒了。但亏损50%？这件事你会记一辈子。

Like, okay. Cool. Double my money. Awesome. Losing 50%, like, you'll remember that for the rest of your life.

很大程度上是因为你投资就是为了赚钱。所以当你赚钱时，你会觉得，对，这就是目的，这就是我投资的预期结果。

And a lot of that is just because of, like, you're investing to make money. So when you make money, you're like, yeah. That was the point. That was why I'm doing this. That was my expected outcome.

但亏钱时你会想，不，我投资是为了增加财富，现在反而变少了。这到底怎么回事？所以我认为很多反应是本能层面的，灵魂深处有个声音在说：这完全不是我想要的结果。

But losing money, you're like, no. I invested to have more money, and now I have less. What the hell happened here? So I think a lot of it is just even just at the knee jerk, like, soul level. You're like, this was not what I intended to happen.

然后当你说'哦，我本想赚钱但现在亏了，我得改变策略，调整方法'时，错误行为就出现了。这种直觉正是大多数糟糕投资行为的根源——你其实只是遇到了普通的市场波动，却认为自己必须立即采取不同行动。

And then I think the bad behavior comes into play when you say, oh, I'm trying to make money, but now I have less. I need to change what I did. I need a different strategy. I need to turn the dials and pull the levers to do something differently. And that intuition is the cause of the majority of bad investing behavior, where because you're experiencing run of the mill volatility, you're experiencing a normal amount of volatility, but you think you need to go to do something differently now.

这就是不良投资行为的核心。我认为这都源于一个事实：你对亏损的痛苦感受会远比对盈利的喜悦更强烈。不过有个反例——最近我读了很多关于怀旧情绪的研究，发现我们记忆中的过去并非真实模样，而是'它本该有'的样子。

That's the core of bad investing behavior. And I think it all stems from the fact that you're gonna experience the pain of loss so much more vividly than you do the joy of gain. There's one twist on this. If there's, like, a devil's advocate to this, I think it's really I've been reading a lot lately about nostalgia and just the science of nostalgia and whatnot, and a lot of it is because we remember the past not as it was, but as it should have been.

哇。

Wow.

所以很多人回忆童年时会说，那时候多美好啊，和小伙伴玩耍，住大房子，有慈爱的父母等等。

So a lot of people look back at their childhood and be like, oh, it was so great. It was so much fun. Played with my friends, great house, loving parent, like, whatever it was.

九十年代真是太棒了。我只是说说而已。那时候简直棒极了。

The nineteen nineties were great. I'm just saying. Like, was fantastic.

就像喜剧演员常做的那样，他们总结得很到位。乔恩·斯图尔特说过，你认为世界在你童年时更好的唯一原因是因为你那时是个孩子。我觉得这其中有很多道理，但我们记住的过去往往是它应该有的样子。所以当你今天成年后回望，会觉得小时候没有责任、没有房贷、没有账单，只需要和朋友玩耍、吃垃圾食品，还不会发胖，一切都完美无缺。

As comedians usually do, they sum it up perfectly. Jon Stewart says, the only reason you think the world was better during your childhood is because you were a child. And that's I think there's a lot of that too, but we remember the past as, like, as how it should have been. So when you're an adult today, you look back and you're like, as a kid, had no responsibility, no mortgage, no bills. I just got to hang out with my friends and eat junk food, and I never gained weight, and everything was perfect.

但我敢保证，其实小时候——包括我自己在内的所有人——都在为学校里发生的事情感到压力，有这个的烦恼那个的焦虑。但你记住它是因为它本该美好，即使事实并非如此。我最近和妻子有过类似的回忆：大约十年前我们还没孩子时，在华盛顿州贝尔维尤有套超棒的公寓，俯瞰湖景，位于市中心，地段绝佳。

But I guarantee you, like, as a kid, you're actually everybody, myself, everybody was stressed about what was going on at school, and you had the stress of this and the anxiety of that. And it's like but you remember it because it should have been good even if it wasn't. I had this experience recently with my wife about ten years ago before we had kids. We had this amazing apartment in Bellevue, Washington, and it overlooked the lake, and it was in downtown. Great location.

那时没有孩子，我们可以睡懒觉、出去吃早午餐，一切都完美。我对她说过类似'天啊，那时候的生活简直完美，那是理想生活'的话。

We didn't have kids, so we could sleep in and, like, go out to brunch. And, like, everything was perfect. And I told her I said something along the lines of, like, god. Life was, like, that was perfect. That was a perfect life.

然后她提醒了我——她说得对——她说：'摩根，我们住那儿的那段时间其实是我最焦虑、可能轻度抑郁最严重的时期'。但我记住的是美好，因为它本该美好。

And then she reminded me, and she was right. And she said, Morgan, during that period when we lived there was a period that I was the most anxious, the most maybe mildly depressed that I've ever been. But I remember it as good because it should have been good

没错。

Right.

即使实际上并非如此。所以关于消极与积极的另一个转折点是：很多时候我们回望九十年代的经济也会觉得'那时多好啊，完美的牛市'。其实不是的。

Even if it actually wasn't. So that's the other twist on, like, negative versus positive is I think a lot of times we look back at even the economy of the nineteen nineties and and think, oh, it was great. It was a perfect bull market. No. It wasn't.

九十年代初有房地产崩盘，94年利率飙升，98年全球金融体系差点崩溃。事后回想觉得美好，但当时并非如此，根本不是。

There was a real estate crash in the early nineties. There was a interest rate surge in '94. The global financial system damn near fell apart in 1998. Like, in hindsight, we think it was great, but it wasn't. It wasn't.

那并不是人们当时真实的体验。

Like, that's not what people were actually experiencing during that time.

所以熊市时的痛苦在低谷期总是更剧烈，这也是人们感受最深刻的部分。你说过伤痕不过是故事，它们本身没有好坏。但你又写了题为'这本该艰难'的章节。

So the pain is always worse on the downside then, and that's what people feel during the bear market most acutely. You said that, you know, scars are just kind of a story. They are what they are. They're neither good nor bad. Yet you also wrote a chapter called it's supposed to be hard.

这一章的副标题叫做‘所有值得追求的事物都伴随着些许痛苦’。你能谈谈艰难事物的价值吗？比如，为了在未来牛市中收获收益，我们是否应该满足于这种痛苦？艰难事物的价值究竟是什么？

And the subtitle of this chapter is called everything worth pursuing comes with a little pain. Can you tell us about the value of hard things? Like, should we in order to reap the gains of future bull investing markets, should we be satisfied with this pain? What is the value of hard things?

在投资领域思考这个问题就很清晰——你凭什么获得回报？你获得长期回报的代价就是承受不确定性、波动性、下跌期和零收益期。是的，无论投资什么资产你都能赚大钱。但为什么呢？

Well, think in investing, it's really clear that what do you get paid for? You get paid for dealing with and putting up with uncertainty and volatility and periods of decline, periods of no gains. That's what you're getting paid for in the long term. So, yes, you can make a lot of money investing no matter what asset you're investing in. But why?

这个世界还没仁慈到让你不劳而获就能积累巨额财富。就像生活中其他事情一样，你必须付出相应的代价。

Like, the world is not so kind that it's just gonna give you dynastic money for doing nothing. You have to, like anything else in life, there's a price that you have to pay.

本质上，痛苦就是入场费。

The pain is the cost of entry, basically.

这是获得收益的门槛。但人们面对痛苦时的本能反应往往是：是不是我或别人在投资过程中犯了错？要么是我搞砸了，要么是美联储搞砸了——人们通常这么归因。有时确实如此，但98%时间里你所经历的常规波动，正是取得好成绩必须支付的入场费。

It's the cost of admission for getting this. But I think the knee jerk reaction when you're experiencing pain is I or somebody else did something wrong in my investing process. Either I screwed up or the Fed screwed up. It's usually one of those two things, what people usually how it's framed. And sometimes that might be the case, but run of the mill volatility, which is what you experience 98% of the time, is the cost of admission for doing well.

这点在加密货币领域尤为明显。我很喜欢Shammoth的一句话：‘任何投资价格翻倍的速度有多快，其价值减半的速度就有多快’。如果你想持有一年能翻倍的资产，那你也持有着一年可能腰斩的资产；想持有一年五倍涨幅的资产，就意味着可能承受一年80%的亏损。这在加密货币市场屡见不鲜。

There's also this other thing that this really applies to crypto. There's this quote from Shammoth that I love where he said, however fast any investment can double in price, that's the half life for how quickly it can decline. So if you wanna own an investment that can double in a year, you also own an investment that can easily lose 50% in a year. You wanna own an investment that can go up five x in a year, you also own an investment that can lose 80% of its value in a year. And so I think that's really true, and you see that a lot in crypto.

没错。这类资产确实有过一年暴涨十倍的记录，但也不要惊讶它可能因为微不足道的消息一年暴跌90%——很多垃圾币甚至一年归零。

Of course. Like, this is an asset that can and sometimes has gone up tenfold in a year. Don't be surprised when off of very little news, it can fall 90% in a year as well, or in the case of a lot of shitcoins, a 100% in a year.

是的，我们见识过这种情况。

Yeah. We saw some of that.

这就是你选择的游戏规则。别惊讶，因为你早就该知道——就像想要梦幻假期就别惊讶收到巨额信用卡账单，这都是你自愿接受的代价。

That's what you're getting. And so don't be surprised because that's what you signed up for. That's the cost of admission that you're paying. Like, if you want, like, an amazing vacation, don't be surprised when you get a massive credit card bill. That's what you signed up for.

所以我认为，认清这个代价的本质能帮助人们真正理解自己在参与什么，也让遭遇波动时更容易承受些。

So I think just acknowledging what that cost is makes a lot of difference in people just understanding what they're getting into and also making that volatility just a little bit more palatable when you experience it.

我认为将这种情况转移到加密货币领域简直再容易不过了。典型的加密货币新手形象是，他们第一次入场时正值牛市中期，然后误以为前方还有更长的牛市等着他们。结果很快发现自己站在了曲线的另一端，陷入熊市，经历着完整的熊市周期，这时一切突然变得艰难起来。是的，然后超过半数的人会选择离开。

I think transferring this into the the crypto context, I think, is just only too easy. The classic meme of someone that comes into crypto is that they come in for their first time in the middle of a bull market, like halfway through, and then they think that there's a lot more bull market ahead of them than there actually is. And then they quickly find themselves on the other side of the curve, and then they're in the bear market, and then they're experiencing the full length of the bear market, and that's all of a sudden when it gets hard. Yeah. And then more than half of those people leave.

这就是我和Ryan常说的：恭喜你，你现在是个定居者而非游客了，但你还得咬牙切齿地再熬一年熊市。没错，这很难。外界对加密货币玩家的印象总是'你们过得太轻松了，资产随便涨'，但圈内人都明白'你根本不懂我经历了怎样的地狱才走到今天，真的太艰难了'。

And this is where me and Ryan talk about, like, congratulations, you are now a settler, not a tourist, but also you have like one more year of bear market to like grind your teeth. And yes, it is hard. And so like, there's the outside perception of crypto people of like, you guys had it so easy, your assets just went up, but then everyone in crypto understands like, you don't understand what I had to go through terrible. To get here. It was so hard.

是啊。我想到的一点是，在金融事务中，任何时候当你能够完成'我是个____'这个句子时——不管填什么——'我是个价值投资者'、'我是个加密货币投资者'...

Yeah. I mean, one thing that comes to mind here is that I think anytime in financial matters when you can complete the sentence, I am a blank. It doesn't matter what it is. I am a value investor. I am a crypto investor.

'我是个债券投资者'，你几乎就是在定义上将自我认同与投资方式绑定。某种程度上这不可避免，我也这样，每个人都如此。

I am a bond investor. You are, almost by definition, attaching your identity to how you invest your money. And to some extent, it's unavoidable. I do this. Everybody does it.

但真正危险的是，在牛市期间你会用'我很有钱'、'我很聪明'、'我是个天才'、'我很有眼光'来补全这句话。那么到了熊市呢？

But it really gets dangerous when during the bull market, you complete that sentence by saying, I am rich. I am smart. I am a genius. I am savvy. But then what do do during the bear market?

你会

What you

说什么？那些话。对啊。

say? Those things. Yeah.

我是

I am

个接盘侠。白痴。

a bag holder. Moron.

我是个

I'm a

接盘侠。

bag holder.

是啊，我穷，我蠢。钻石手帕。

Yeah. I'm poor. I'm an idiot. Diamond handker.

那时候真的...所以它确实变成了一把刺向你身份的匕首。对吧？因为你基于市场波动构建了自我认同，而其中大部分只是贝塔收益，甚至与你无关。

That's when it really yeah. So so it really get it's a dagger to your identity. Right. Because you built your identity based off of market movements, most of which was just like beta. It wasn't even you.

仅仅是市场波动而已。当你把这与身份绑定时，在下跌过程中，最轻松的应对方式就是干脆不去查看、不去想它，甚至不打开你的证券账户。什么都不打开。因为你不愿完成'我现在是个____'这个句子。这就是为什么将身份与投资方式挂钩——这个道理适用于很多事情——是很危险的。

It's just the market movements. And then you tie that to your identity, and then on the way down, it can be hard to the easiest way to deal with it is to just not even check, does not even think about it, and don't even open your brokerage account. Don't even open anything. It's just, like because you don't wanna complete the sentence of what you are now. And so that's why, like, attaching your identity to how you invest or like, this applies to a lot of things.

将身份与政治立场绑定。这是非常危险的事，因为这些都超出你的控制范围。注定会在某个时刻偏离你的预期。无论你的政治立场如何，对立阵营总会在某些选举中获胜。如果你的身份是'我是某某派'，这终将伤害你。

Attaching your identity to your politics. This is, like, a very dangerous thing because all those things are outside of your control. And by definition, they're gonna go in a different direction at some point than you wanted to. No matter what your politics are, somebody on the other side is gonna win some election. And if your identity is I am a blank, like, it's gonna hurt you.

这会带来伤害。所以保罗·格雷厄姆有句经典名言：保持渺小的身份认同。你应当尽量少说'我是____'这种话，明白吗？

It's gonna hurt. So, like, it's a classic Paul Graham quote. Keep your identity small. You wanna have very few things in your life where you say, I am a blank. You know?

我喜欢说'我是父亲'、'我是好配偶'这类身份，但我个人很抗拒将自我认同与任何投资策略绑定。

I like saying I am a father. I am a good spouse. Like, those I like, but I kind of push back personally at attaching my identity to any kind of investing strategy.

这一切让我想起大卫谈论的定居者与游客的区别，以及你引用的哈里·杜鲁门那句话：'下一代人永远不会从上一代那里学到任何东西，除非被锤子敲醒。我总在想为什么后代不能汲取前人的经验，但他们确实做不到，除非亲历挫折。没有什么比亲身经历更具说服力。'这是你某章的副标题，我们在加密货币领域屡见不鲜。

I think all of this reminds me of what David was talking about the difference between settlers and tourists of this quote that you put in from Harry Truman, and he says this, the next generation never learns anything from the previous one until it's brought home with a hammer. I've wondered why the next generation can't profit from the generation before, but they never do until they get knocked in the head by experience. Nothing is more persuasive than what you've experienced firsthand. That is a subtitle of of one of your chapters. And that's certainly something that we see in crypto.

基本上，加密圈有一群经历过多次周期的人，那些OG们。他们堪称防弹级别的存在，是我们领域的先知。但每次他们都看到新人犯着完全相同的错误。我想，熬过熊市、坚守信念、经历这些痛苦的价值就在于，你终将加入他们的行列。

It's basically there's a set of crypto people who've been through multiple cycles, you know, kind of the crypto OGs. They're basically bomb proof. And these are like oracles for our space. But every single time, they observe newbies, people who are entering crypto for the first time, making the exact same mistakes. And I guess the value of coming through a bear market and holding onto your conviction and going through all of this pain is that you get to join their ranks.

你会成为老兵，获得来之不易的第一手经验。但摩根，为什么我们总要艰难地学习？这是我们常有的疑问——为什么不能直接向OG学习，避免重蹈覆辙？

You get to become a veteran. You get that hard fought experience firsthand. But why do we always have to learn the hard way, Morgan? Like, that's kind of a question we have. Like, why can't we just learn from the OGs and not repeat the same mistakes?

为什么总是下一代人非得被锤子砸中脑袋才能醒悟？

Why is it always this next generation has to be hit in the head with a hammer?

我认为原因在于，正如我在书中所说，没有什么比亲身经历更具说服力。听着，我是个历史爱好者，尤其热衷军事史，但我从未亲历战场，从未服役。就算读再多关于战场体验的书，我也永远无法真正理解被子弹扫射时那1%的真实感受——永远不可能接近那种体验。

I think it's because, as I say in the book, nothing is more persuasive than what you've experienced firsthand. Look. I'm a history buff, and I really like military history, but I've never served in combat, never served in the armed forces. Never in a million years, no matter how many books I read about what it was like, will I understand 1% of what it's actually like to be shot at in combat. Never in a million years will I come remotely close to it.

这方面有大量研究。比如二战时期有很多训练故事：许多士兵起初充满虚张声势的勇气，喊着'我要冲进去把他们全干掉'。可当真上了前线遭到射击时，他们全都吓破了胆。

And there's a lot of research on this. Like, there's a lot of stories, like, from World War two about in training. A lot of the soldiers have come out with full of bravado. I'm gonna go in there, and I'm gonna blast them down like that. And then they actually get to the front lines and get shot at, and they're absolutely terrified.

未经亲历就无法真正理解。在金融领域，若从未经历过资产腰斩，研究历史案例会显得很轻松——毕竟你是带着后见之明在研究，知道结局如何。你知道熊市终会结束，市场终将反弹。所以当你研究从未经历过的熊市时，它们看起来全是机遇。

You don't understand anything until you've experienced firsthand. And so in financial matters, if you've never lived through a 50% decline, it's very easy to study when that's happened in the past. And by the way, because you're studying it with hindsight, you know how the story ends. You know that the story did end, that that bear market did end, and you had a rebound. So when you're studying it, if you've never been through a bear market and you study one, they all look like opportunities.

人们总会事后诸葛亮：'要是在2002年2月持有科技股就赚翻了'，'1932年就该全仓股票'。但身处1932年或2002年2月时，没人知道结局。若不知故事如何收场，你会以为危机会永远持续。这种认知也存在弊端。

You always look at it and you're like, ah, if I own tech stocks in 02/2002, that was when you should have bought, made all your money. Everyone should have bought stocks in 1932. That was an and, of course, in hindsight, but during 1932 and during 02/2002, people didn't know it. If you don't know how the story ends, you assume it's gonna last indefinitely. And there's also some, like, downside of this as well.

马克·安德森常提到2010年代初科技复兴的原因之一，是当时新一代人涌入硅谷，他们不记得2000年互联网泡沫的惨痛。在此之前，2004年很难出现新科技热潮，因为亲历者仍心有余悸。直到不懂历史的年轻人进场——这种现象也适用于政治和战争领域。就像那句名言：'科学随着葬礼更迭而进步'。一旦某种世界观根深蒂固，就很难将其摒弃继续前进。

Marc Andreessen's talked a lot about the reason that at least one of the reasons that you had a new tech boom beginning in the early twenty tens is because that's when you had a new generation of people coming to Silicon Valley who did not remember the dot com bust of two thousand. And before that, it was very hard to have a new tech boom in 2004 because all those people were scarred from February. They were all still around. And it wasn't until you had young people who didn't understand it come in, and I think that's true for a lot of things, in politics and war where it's like, you know, there's that saying, like, science progresses one funeral at a time. It's hard to once you've been ingrained, if not indoctrinated, with one view of how the world works, it's hard to push that aside and keep going.

另一个危险在于：即便经历过多次熊市，下次也不会重演。虽然都会让你亏钱，但诱因将完全不同。政府应对方式也会不同。很多人说：'我们经历了35年利率持续走低的时代'...

So the other danger about this is that even if you've lived through multiple bear markets, the next one's not gonna be the same. It'll be the same in the sense that you're gonna lose a lot of your money, but what's gonna cause it's gonna be completely differently. What the government's response is is gonna be different. And so a lot of people had said, you know, hey. We went thirty five years without ever seeing a sustained rise in interest rates.

对此有很多反驳角度。你可以质疑：'那又怎样？就算经历过1980年代初的利率飙升，当前这次也截然不同。'所以即便有过暴跌经历，也未必能更好应对下次危机——因为每次都是全新剧本。

But there's a lot of responses to that. You could push back on that and be like, well, so what? Like, even if you lived through the interest rate surge of the early nineteen eighties, the one that we're dealing with today is not the same. It's different in all kinds of different ways. So even if you have experienced these declines, it doesn't necessarily make you better prepared for the next one because the next one's gonna play out totally different.

比较2008年金融危机和2020年疫情初期：都是市场暴跌，但2008年是'该死的贪婪银行家'，2020年则是'我下周会死吗？孩子怎么上学？'情绪反应天差地别。即便同样亏损过半，过程体验也完全不同。

I mean, compare what we went through in 2008 with what we went through in the early days of COVID. They were both massive market declines, but 2008 was screw those greedy bankers, and 2020 was, am I gonna die in the next week? How do I get my kid to school? Just like the emotional reaction to it could not have been more different Even if you had experienced losing half your money, even if that was the same, how you did it was totally different.

我这样教导刚接触投资的朋友：市场具有记忆，因为市场是参与者集体意识的映射。当某个领域的所有投资者都带着相同伤疤时，这个市场就会表现出特定反应。最近加密货币市场让我产生强烈既视感——上一轮牛市初期暴涨的资产，本轮周期又再次领涨。这很大程度上是因为参与者仍是同一批人。

The way I try and teach friends coming into the world of just like investing and finance that I have to share with that's relevant to this is I try and tell them that markets have memory because markets are just collective consciousness of their participants. And if their participants all have the same scars, for example, then in a particular market, in a particular sector of a particular asset. If those people that own that asset or are investing in that vertical have all the shared memory, a shared trauma, if you will, about something, then that market will react in that particular way. One thing I've noticed in the crypto markets that are happening recently is there seems to be like a time is a flat circle element happening right now in the crypto markets where a lot of the same assets that appreciated significantly at the very early stages of the last crypto bull market are the same crypto assets that are appreciating very early in this part of the phase as well. And so I'm getting a lot of just like deja vu about my first bull market, because a lot of that is happening because it's the same market participants.

因此，市场的概念就像是它们本身作为人类集体意识的载体，储存着我们的记忆，并以极其相似的方式对环境作出反应。

And so the idea of just like markets themselves as our collective human consciousnesses have memories stored in them, and they will react to their environment in very similar ways.

没错，确实如此。很大程度上，作为一代人，我们会共同经历相同的事件。如果我们年龄相仿，比如，我们以同样的方式经历了2008年金融危机，也大致以相同的方式经历了新冠疫情，因为我们当时处于人生的相同阶段。

Yeah. Definitely. And a lot of it is like, as a generation, you go through experiencing the same thing. If we're all roughly the same age, like, we experienced 2008 the same way. We experienced COVID in roughly the same way just because we were at the same phase of life.

而我们与父母的不同在于，他们不仅经历了我们未曾经历的事情，比如上世纪八十年代初的通货膨胀，而且当他们经历2008年2月的危机时，他们处于人生的完全不同的阶段。他们中许多人正处于职业生涯晚期或退休初期，而如果你是在金融危机中大学毕业或大学在读，你的体验就截然不同。所以，每一代人都是作为一个群体，以自己的方式理解风险。一个鲜明的例子是，如果你在大萧条时期是年轻人，那种影响会伴随你一生；而如果你那时还是个孩子，可能更多是通过父母的讲述间接感受。

And we're versus our parents experienced not only they experienced things that we didn't, like the inflation of the early nineteen eighties, But when they experienced 02/2008, they were at a very different phase of their life. A lot of them were kind of in their late careers, early retirement years, whereas if you were graduating college into the financial crisis or if you were in college during the financial crisis, you experienced it totally different. So a lot of it is, like, every generation kind of goes through as a cohort with understanding risk in their own way. And, I mean, a stark example of this is, if you were a young adult during the Great Depression, that stayed with you forever for the rest of your life. If you were a kid during the Great Depression, maybe you had some influence by what your parents told you.

即使你当时活着，那段经历对你的创伤也会与那些年轻成年人完全不同。心理学中有很多研究表明，15到30岁这个青年阶段所经历的事情影响尤为深远，因为你的思维仍具可塑性，能够形成新的世界观，但又足够成熟需要承担责任——比如‘我必须弄明白这个世界如何运作，因为我要支付账单，需要与人社交’。这十五年间发生的事对你余生产生巨大影响，也导致不同世代之间难以真正理解彼此的财务观念。2008年后我深刻体会到这一点，当时黄金一度极其流行，而追捧它的主要是婴儿潮一代。

Like, even if you were alive during that time, it's gonna scar you in a very different way than it did those who were young adults. There's a lot in psychology where what you experience as a young adult, let's call it age 15 to 30, is so influential because you are young enough for your mind to still be kind of malleable. You can form new ideas about the world, but you're old enough to have responsibility where it's like, I really need to figure out how the world works because I've got bills to pay, and I've got people that I need to socialize with. And so what happens during that fifteen year period is very influential for the rest of your life, and it makes it so different generations don't really understand the financial views of another. I really saw this after 2008 when gold, for a period of time, became very, very popular, and who it was popular with were the baby boomers.

千禧一代并不热衷黄金，热衷的是婴儿潮一代。我认为至少部分原因是，婴儿潮一代亲身经历过八十年代初的通货膨胀，而千禧一代要么尚未出生，要么年纪太小不明就里。所以在那段时期，婴儿潮一代普遍高喊‘黄金！黄金！’，而千禧一代的反应是‘你们到底在说什么？’

It was not millennials. It was boomers who it was popular with. And I think at least one of the explanations was that boomers lived through the inflation of the early eighties, that the millennials didn't. They either they weren't alive or they were too young to know what was going on. And so, yeah, during that period, boomers, by and large, like, generalize, were like, gold, gold, gold, and millennials are like, what what the hell are you talking about?

为什么你会想持有黄金？每一代人都会有这样的疑问。可以肯定的是，在未来二十年内，我们的孩子，二三十年后，会看着我们三个说，我不明白他们为什么对经济有X、Y、Z那样的看法。这绝对会发生。是的。

Why would you wanna own gold? So every generation has that. Like, for sure, within the next twenty years, you know, our kids, you know, twenty, thirty years from now, will be looking at the three of us being like, I don't understand why they believe x, y, and z about the economy. That's definitely gonna happen. Yeah.

他们也会对他们那些老派的千禧一代父母说同样的话，这种情况每一代人都会发生。

And they'll be saying the same thing about their old millennial parents, and that happens every generation.

是的。太对了。我是说，那些在大萧条时期——二十世纪二三十年代——成长起来的年轻人，他们是最早的‘无银行’一代。告诉你，那些人根本不信任银行。明白吗？

Yeah. It's so true. I mean, the young adults that grew up during the depression, nineteen twenties, nineteen thirties, those are the original bankless adults. Let me tell you, those people did not trust banks. Alright?

就像那个晚年把所有钱都藏在地下室地板下锡罐里的老爷爷。对吧？所以这会在你的资产配置和偏好上留下印记。摩根，我们讨论过熊市季节，并从中吸取了一些教训。但现在看来，加密货币可能正在进入牛市季节。

This is like the grandpa in later years who kept all of his money in tin cans underneath his basement floor boards. Right? So it leaves an impression in terms of your asset allocation and your preferences. So, Morgan, we've talked about the bear market season, and we've drawn some lessons out of it. But it looks like crypto might be entering a bull market season.

当然，无法百分百确定，但早期迹象已经显现，比如比特币、以太坊价格在上涨。当这种情况发生时，因为我们经历过牛市周期，一切会变得疯狂。人们在牛市中会失去理智。而我认为你的书在牛市期间给我们提供了一些建议。不过我想从这里开始讨论。

Of course, there's no way to know for sure, but early signs of this, like Bitcoin, Ether, you know, prices going up. And when that happens, because we've been through bull market cycles before, things get absolutely crazy. People lose their minds during bull runs. And I think your book has some advice for us during bull runs. I wanna actually start here, though.

这可能是个奇怪的切入点，但我认为这是正确的开始。许多人将熊市归咎于加密货币领域的贪婪。但实际上，我并不认为是贪婪，至少不完全是贪婪。我认为我们行业中最恶劣的行为更多是由嫉妒引起的。嗯哼。而非贪婪。

And this is maybe an odd place to start, but I think it's the right place to start. A lot of people blamed the bear market on greed in crypto. And I actually don't think it was greed, at least not precisely greed. I actually think the worst behaviors in our industry were caused more by envy Mhmm. Than greed.

这也是你书中某一章节所探讨的内容。基本上这是一种普遍现象——在加密货币领域，资产可能暴涨10倍、20倍、50倍甚至100倍。比如以太坊价格从两位数飙升至4500美元，只用了大约十八到二十四个月，但人们依然不满足。原因在于他们总在盯着别人的投资组合，或是那些涨势更猛的资产。

And this is what one of your chapters, you know, talks a little bit about. But it's basically this observation that I think everyone has seen in crypto where assets are up, like, 10 x, 20 x, 50 x, a 100 x. Like, the price of Ether went from double digits to 4,500 in, like, you know, eighteen months, twenty four months, and people still weren't happy. They still weren't happy about that. And the reason is because they were looking for someone else's portfolio or they were looking at some other asset that was pumping even harder.

当然，社交媒体放大了这种心态，但核心在于：除非我比别人拥有更多，否则永远不够。有句话说'嫉妒是偷走快乐的贼'。我想问的是，在我们准备迎接可能的下一轮牛市时，如何才能对即将发生的事感到快乐？因为如果牛市真的来临，我们的财富会增加。

And, of course, social media amplifies all of this, but there's a sense that, like, it's never enough unless I have more than the other guy. Yeah. This quote is envy is the thief of joy. And I wanna ask as we're getting prepared for maybe this next bull market season, how could we actually be happy with what happens? Because if we do get a bull market, our wealth is going to increase.

但如果我们的快乐没有同步增长，那这一切的意义何在？你能告诉我们，获得真正快乐的关键是什么？知足的关键是什么？你对此有何见解？

But if our happiness doesn't increase, like, what's the point? Can you tell us, like, what is the key to actually being happy? What is the key to being content? What have you learned about this?

这与我们早先讨论的内容非常相似。从宏观层面来看，人类永远无法摆脱这个困境——你的期望值总会随着处境改善而水涨船高。在社会层面，我们永远无法克服这点。完全可以想象这样的场景：我们的孙辈收入是我们的两倍（经通胀调整后），他们的医疗技术远超当今水平，

This is very similar to what we talked about earlier. At the broad level, at the macro level, we will never be able to get over this, the idea that, like, your expectations are gonna rise in lockstep with your circumstances. At the societal level, we'll never get over it. You can easily imagine a situation in which our grandchildren are earning twice as much money as we are adjusted for inflation. Their medical technology is unfathomable compared to what we have today.

他们生活在普遍和平的年代，却并未因此变得更幸福。

Their life that they live in, like, general peace, like, peaceful times, and they're no happier for it.

顺便说，我们能想象这种场景，正是因为我们此刻就身处这样的境况中。

And by the way, the reason we can imagine that is because that's precisely the condition we find ourselves in.

没错，这正是已经发生的事。

Like That's exactly what's happened.

比起一百年前或三百年前，现在的生活好太多了。想象一下身为封建领主的农奴，终日在地里劳作的场景。

It's so much better than it was a hundred years ago or, like, three hundred years ago, or imagine being a feudal peasant on some lord's fiefdom and just slaving your days away in the field.

如果约翰·D·洛克菲勒、安德鲁·卡内基或JP·摩根有时光机，看到当今美国普通家庭的生活水平——尤其是医疗技术这类事物——他们会震惊到晕厥。要知道，经通胀调整后身价近五千亿美元的洛克菲勒，一生都没用过青霉素或布洛芬。

If John D. Rockefeller or Andrew Carnegie or JP Morgan had a time machine and could see how the median American family lives today, they would faint with how amazing it was, particularly things like medical technology. You know, John D Rockefeller was worth almost half a trillion dollars just for inflation. He never had penicillin. He never had Advil.

他从未接受过化疗。他从未拥有过这些如今普通人普遍能受益的东西。但普通人未必认为自己的生活——或者说他们肯定不觉得——比洛克菲勒过得更好，因为那些对他而言曾是奢侈品的事物，对我们已变成必需品。你的期望值同步攀升，所以布洛芬不再像魔法般神奇，它只是成了人人应得之物。

He never had chemotherapy. He never had all of these things that, by and large, ordinary people can benefit from today, he didn't have. But ordinary people don't necessarily think that they're living or they definitely don't think they're living better than Rockefeller because those what would have seemed like luxuries to him just become necessities for us. Your expectations rise in lockstep, so Advil doesn't feel like magic anymore. It just feels like something that everyone's entitled to.

从更宏观层面看，如果说嫉妒是这个概念的负面表现，我认为真实情况是：人们看着别人时会想，既然他们能拥有那些，不仅我也能拥有，而且我理应获得同等之物？这才是熊市真正的诱因。就像如果我看到你赚大钱，不仅我也想要那笔钱，更觉得我理应得到——因为人们天生就有追求平等的倾向，觉得你并不比我优秀，也不比我聪明。

And I think at the broader level, like, if envy is the negative connotation to that idea, think I what really happens is that people look at other people and say, well, if they can have that, not only can I have it too, but I deserve to have what they have? And this is really what gets in the bear markets. It's like, if I see you making a lot of money, it's not just that I want that money too, but I deserve it. Because people have a natural, I think, push towards equality in terms of if like like, you're not any better. You're not smarter than me.

你工作也没比我努力。所以如果你拥有的比我多，那我当然也配得上。接着很容易就会跳转到这样的想法：既然我理应得到，就该不择手段去获取——通过杠杆，通过冒险，因为我配得上你所拥有的，所以不该为此付出太多努力。毕竟你也没多努力，所以我当然也配得上。正是这种情绪让牛市失控。

You're not working harder than me. So if you have more than me, well, I deserve it too. And then it's very easy to take the jump and be like, well, if I deserve it, I should go out and acquire it through any means necessary, through leverage, through taking wild risks, because I deserve what you have, so I shouldn't need to work that hard for it. Because you didn't work hard for it, so I deserve it too. That feeling is what makes bull markets run out of control.

嗯。历来如此。但在社交媒体时代，你不仅分享真实状态，更会夸大——甚至虚构自己的生活品质、幸福程度，还有那些美得不真实的度假照片。

Mhmm. And that's always been the case. But now in the social media world where you're not only sharing with how you're doing, but you're exaggerating, exaggerating if not lying about how you're doing in terms of the life that you're living and how happy you are and, like, you know, how beautiful the vacation pictures are going on.

摩根，你炫耀的NFT就是咱们行业上一轮周期的写照。

Well, the NFTs that you flex, Morgan. That's what our industry was doing last cycle.

确实。或者说这种现象自古有之。牛市里人人谈论赢家，没人提及输家，就像赌场生态一样永恒不变。

Too. Or it's like this has been the case forever. Like, during a bull market, everyone talks about the winners. Nobody talks about the losers. That's always the case of how it works, just like gambling.

嗯。正因如此，现在比以往任何时候都更容易环顾四周后觉得：别人比我幸福，别人比我富有，别人比我光鲜——而我理应获得他们所拥有的。这就是滋生恶劣行为的导火索。

Mhmm. And so because of that, it's easier than ever to look around and be like, other people are happier than me. Other people have more money than me. Other people are prettier than me, and I deserve what they have. And that's the trigger for bad behavior.

我认为每次牛市都会出现这种情况，只是如今更剧烈也更迅速。要知道互联网泡沫酝酿了八年——真正始于93年，直到01年才破灭。按加密行业的标准，那简直算是慢镜头了。

And so I think that that happens in every bull market, but it's just more potent now, and it's faster now. You know, the .com bubble was a eight year endeavor. Really started in earnest in '93 and really came undone in 02/2001. It was actually, like, by crypto standards, that's a long run.

慢动作。

Slow motion.

那差不多是我们半辈子的时间了。

That's, like That's half of our lives.

两个周期。因为现在你可以在十二个月内完成一个完整的周期。甚至房地产泡沫也持续了六年，你知道的，从2001年到2007年2月。所以我认为很大程度上由于社交媒体的存在，现在事情发展得更快了。因此，你经历的暴涨和崩盘都比过去更加迅速。

Two cycles. Because now you can have a full cycle in twelve months in twelve months. And even the housing bubble was a six year endeavor, you know, 2001 to 02/2007. And so I think largely because of social media, things just play out much faster now. And so you have much more rapid gains and much more rapid bust than we have in the past.

尤其是加密货币主要在推特上运作，人们会尽可能炫耀他们在牛市中的胜利，而几乎从不透露他们的亏损交易。他们大多只谈论自己的盈利交易。所以加密货币玩家们，想想——

And crypto especially operates so dominantly on Twitter where people will flex as much as possible their victories in the bull market, and they'll never really disclose their losing trades. They'll mostly just only talk about their winning trades. And so crypto people, think-

我就是这么做的，大卫。

That's what I do, David.

当然，我从来只有盈利的交易。大家都知道。

Of course, that's I only ever have winning trades. Everyone knows Yeah,

没错。

that's right.

所以我特别认为在加密货币领域，我们与在推特上炫耀牛市财富有一种不健康的关系，在牛市期间我们全天候生活在推特上。我们尤其容易受到这种影响。我们在Bankless上用过这个梗，当牛市开始时，我们戴上了‘牛市护目镜’——就像喝醉时的‘啤酒护目镜’一样。

And so I think especially in crypto, which kind of has an unhealthy relationship with wealth flexing in a bull market on Twitter where we all live twenty four seven during a bull market. We are especially susceptible to this. And we use this meme on bank list that when the bull market started, we've done a few of these, we put on our bull market goggles. Like there are beer goggles. There are drunk goggles.

随着牛市的持续，你就像在派对中越陷越深，随着时间的推移越来越不清醒。所以我想给进入这个周期的加密货币玩家的建议是：不要嫉妒你的邻居。尽量保持清醒，回顾过去的自己，根据你过去的期望来评估你的净资产或投资成功，这才是你的锚点，而不是推特上那些炫耀他们成功交易或珍贵NFT的加密邻居。

As the bull market goes on, like you are deeper and deeper into the party and you are getting less and less sober as time goes on. And so I think like the way that I would try and like give advice for crypto people entering the cycle is don't look at your neighbor in envy. Do your best to be grounded and look at your past self and look at your net worth or your investing successes based on past expectations of yourself, which is your anchor, rather than your neighbor on crypto Twitter who just flex their really good trade or their really valuable NFT.

不过大卫，你说的话百分之百正确，我完全同意每一个字，但在实践中要做到这一点极其困难。

The thing though, David, like, what you just said is a 100% true, and I agree with every word of it, it's ridiculously hard to pull off in practice.

哦，确实如此。

Oh, for sure.

因为从进化的角度看，如果你在争夺资源、配偶、食物或土地，我拥有多少并不重要。重要的是我比你多。这才是唯一重要的事。所以当你看到别人变得富有，《纽约时报》的文章说每个人都赚得盆满钵满而你却没有时，这就像一把精心设计的匕首，巧妙地刺向读者的自卑感。即使是我这样的人——我不会说自己对泡沫免疫，但我认为自己几乎不受影响，因为我很少感到FOMO（害怕错过）。

Because just, like, from an evolutionary if you're competing for resources, competing for spouses, competing for food, competing for land, it doesn't matter how much I have. All that matters is I have more than you. That's the only thing that matters. So when you look at other people getting rich, the New York Times article, everyone's getting hilariously rich and you're not, That very intentionally, very skillfully is just like a dagger of inferiority to the people who read it. And even as someone who's I'm not gonna say I'm immune to bubbles, but I think I'm close to it in terms of I have very little FOMO.

虽然不是零，但我的FOMO（错失恐惧症）程度可能低于平均水平。但即使在那些繁荣时期，我也会看着它，心想，我不知道。我是不是错过了什么？比如，我是不是那个傻瓜？当你周围那些你甚至只是暗中与之较劲的人做得比你出色得多时，很容易对自己关于市场的一切信念产生怀疑。

Not zero, but I probably have a below average amount of FOMO. But even there's periods during those booms where I look at it, and I'm like, I don't know. Am I missing something here? Like, am I the idiot here? It's very easy to second guess everything that you believe about markets when people around you who you are, even if it's just implicitly competing with, are doing much better than you.

袖手旁观是件很难的事。

It's a hard thing to sit back and watch.

所以，摩根，我想就此打住，因为这太重要了。我环顾加密领域的四周，看到很多富人。但这些人中真正快乐的寥寥无几，即使在加密领域也是如此。对吧？那么，为什么会这样呢？

So, Morgan, I just wanna tie this off because it's so important. I look around me in crypto, and I see a lot of wealthy people. And so few of those people are actually happy, even in crypto. Right? So, like, why is that?

幸福的关键是什么？是降低期望值的理念吗？比如，如果我们投资得当、做事得当，我们会比以前更富有。但这不等于幸福。我们该如何摆脱这种嫉妒的循环？

What is the key to happiness? Is it this idea of lowering our expectations? Like, you know, hopefully, if we're investing well and doing these things well, we will be more wealthy than we were previously. That doesn't equal happiness. How do we get off this envy treadmill here?

这种我们时常陷入的享乐主义陷阱。

This, like, hedonist trap that we fall into all of the time.

大约十年前，一个叫丹·哈里斯的人写了一本书，名为《快乐10%》。这本书讲的是冥想以及冥想如何改变你的生活。他称之为《快乐10%》，因为他厌倦了所有关于冥想的夸大其词，比如它会让你变成佛陀，彻底改变你的生活。他说，不。

So there's a book written about ten years ago by a guy named Dan Harris. The book is called Ten Percent Happier. And the book is about meditation and how meditation can change your life. And he called it Ten Percent Happier because he got tired with all the bullshit about meditation will make you, like, turn you into the Buddha, completely and utterly transform your life. And he was like, no.

冥想很棒，但如果你做得对，你可能会变得快乐10%。让我们现实一点，看看这能带来多大的改变。我认为你可以写一本关于金钱的好书，也叫《快乐10%》。因为金钱能买到幸福吗？是的。

Meditation's great, but if you do it right, you might become 10% happier. Like, keep like, let's be real about what this is like, how much the needle is gonna move here. And I think I think you could write a very good book about money called Ten Percent Happier. Because can money buy happiness? Yeah.

当然可以。它能让你更快乐吗？当然可以。它能消除焦虑和不确定性吗？是的。

Of course. Can it make you happier? Of course, it can. Can it remove anxiety and uncertainty? Yes.

但这可能只占真正让你快乐的10%。因为幸福的公式包括：你是否处于一段充满爱的关系中？你有好朋友吗？你健康吗？你问心无愧吗？

But maybe that's 10% of what's actually gonna make you happy. Because, like, the calculation for happiness includes, like, are you in a loving relationship? Do you have good friends? Are you healthy? Do you have a clear conscience?

你每晚能睡八小时吗？你喜欢所有这些与金钱无关的事情。音乐制作人里克·鲁宾有一句名言：在你实现梦想之前，你不可能真正感到沮丧，因为那时你会意识到，你的感觉和以前没什么不同，然后你会充满绝望。所以当你没有很多钱时，很容易说，如果我有更多的钱，我所有的问题都会消失。但当你真的有了更多钱，你会发现，不。

Do you sleep eight hours at night? Do you like, all these other things that have nothing to do with money. And so there's a great quote from Rick Rubin, the music producer, where he says, you cannot become truly depressed until you achieve your dreams because then you realize that you feel no different than you did before, and then you're filled with hopelessness. So it's easy when you don't have a lot of money to say, if only I had more money, all my problems would go away. But then if you get more money, you're like, no.

我也有同感。我和从前一样焦虑抑郁。然后你会感到绝望，因为你曾以为金钱会让情况好转，但现在有了钱，感觉依旧，意识到它对我毫无帮助。所以我认为金钱只能让你快乐10%。拥有大量财富或许能让你快乐10%。

I feel the same. I'm just as anxious and depressed as I was before. And then you're hopeless because you're like, I used to have a sense of hope that money would make it better, but now that I have the money, I feel the same, and I realize it's not doing anything for me. So I think money can make you 10% happier. Like, having a lot of money can make you 10% happier.

许多不快乐的富豪，其不幸很大程度上是因果使然——让他们致富的是对创业、投资等事物的狂热追求，而这种追求牺牲了许多其他东西：社交生活、睡眠、健康等等。我认为这是事实，是这两方面的结合。大多数人真正渴望的其实是简单的生活。

A lot of the very wealthy people who are unhappy, a lot of that is cause and effect because what made them wealthy is an absolute fanatical relationship with entrepreneurism or investing or whatnot that has come at the cost of a lot of other things. It's come at the cost of their social life, their sleep, their health, all kinds of other things that's gonna come, you know, directly at the expense of. And so I think that's true. It's a combination of those two things. It's like, you know, I think what most people really want is a simple life.

他们想要独立，想要生活简单。但实际上他们追求的是高社会地位，而非幸福。无论是否自知，他们真正追逐的是地位。而地位这场游戏永远无法获胜，因为总有人比你更富有、更美丽、更幸福。

They want independence, and they want simplicity in their life. But what they're actually seeking is, like, high status. They're not seeking happiness. They're seeking status is what they're actually chasing, whether they know it or not. And status is a game that, like, a, can't be won because there's always somebody who is richer and prettier and happier than you are.

如果你的目标只是比周围人更幸福更富有，这场游戏你永远赢不了。其次，最狂热追求地位的人，过的本质上是失衡的生活，注定要付出代价。这引出了关键问题：我们能做什么？有些人天生就不需要取悦陌生人，而另一些人则深陷不安全感，每天醒来（即便不明说）都在想：如何炫耀才能获得世人关注？

So if your goal is just be happier and richer than the people around you, you're never gonna win that game. And two, it's like the people who are the most fanatical about doing it are living just an inherently unbalanced life that's gonna come at the expense of. So I think that's a lot and it moved to the question of, like, what can we do about it? I think some people are more naturally inclined towards not needing to impress strangers, And others, whatever the deep rooted sense of insecurity is there, every day they wake up. And even if they're not saying these words explicitly, the feeling is like, how can I show off to gain the attention of strangers in the world?

我认为这是核心差异。对我来说，最大的财务负担就是需要取悦他人。若能克制这点，就是利用金钱真正提升幸福感的最重要一步。

And so I think that's a big part of it, and other people, like, have more of that than others. But to me, the biggest financial liability is needing to impress other people. And if you and if you can tamp down on that, that's the biggest move that you can make towards using money to actually make yourself happier.

你们要发行代币吗？是否已上线？如何管理团队代币奖励的法律税务问题？Toku能简化代币薪酬管理的所有环节，现在即可免费使用。你将获得顶尖法律税务支持，处理团队代币分配与管理。

Are you launching a token? Is it already live? How are you managing the legal and tax for providing token awards for your team? Toku simplifies everything about managing token grant compensation, and you can get started with them for free. You'll have access to top notch legal and tax support to handle the distribution and management of tokens for your team.

Toku覆盖全流程：从用户友好的代币授予法律模板，到追踪归属期、计算预扣税。Toku精通各类授予结构：代币购买协议、限制性代币奖励、限制性代币单位、代币期权等。现已为Protocol Labs、DYDX基金会、Mina基金会等领先企业提供服务。立即访问toku.com/bankless或点击下方链接，了解Toku如何助你高效管理代币。

Toku caters to every step in the process from user friendly legal templates for granting tokens to tracking vesting periods and calculating withholding taxes. Toku understands every grant structure, token purchase agreements, restricted token awards, restricted token units, token options, and all the other ones. Toku is already simplifying this today for leading companies like Protocol Labs, DYDX Foundation, Mina Foundation, and many more. You can learn more about how Toku can help you streamline your token management and get started for free. Visit Toku at toku.com/bankless or click the link in the description below.

知道Uniswap吗？这个全球最大去中心化交易所交易量超1.4万亿美元。我们常在Bankless节目中讨论它。但Uniswap正变得更强大——Uniswap Labs刚发布了iOS版移动钱包，这是随时随地交易代币的最新便捷方式。

You know Uniswap? It's the world's largest decentralized exchange with over $1,400,000,000,000 in trading volume. You know this because we talk about it endlessly on bank lists. It's Uniswap, but Uniswap is becoming so much more. Uniswap Labs just released the Uniswap mobile wallet for iOS, the newest, easiest way to trade tokens on the go.

通过Uniswap钱包，你可以轻松创建/导入钱包，用借记卡以极低法币入金费购买加密货币，在主网、Polygon、Arbitrum和Optimism上无缝兑换。还能存储展示NFT，通过内置搜索功能、市场排行榜和价格图表探索Web3，或用WalletConnect连接任何Web3应用。现在就用DeFi最受信赖团队打造的安全简易钱包直达去中心化金融——立即下载iOS版Uniswap钱包。

With the Uniswap wallet, you can easily create or import a new wallet, buy crypto on any available exchange with your debit card with extremely low fiat on ramp fees, and you can seamlessly swap on main net, Polygon, Arbitrum, and Optimism. On the Uniswap mobile wallet, you can store and display your beautiful NFTs, And you can also explore web three with the in app search features, market leaderboards, and price charts, or use wallet connect to connect to any web three application. So you can now go directly to DeFi with the Uniswap mobile wallet. Safe, simple custody from the most trusted team in DeFi. Download the Uniswap wallet today on iOS.

节目备注中有链接。CELLO是面向现实世界打造的移动优先、EVM兼容负碳区块链，现在重大变革来临：推出CELLO二层网络。这项革命性提案将使Celo快速增长的生态回归以太坊。Vitalik已在Celo论坛表达了对Celo二层的期待，Optimism的Ben Jones同样表示支持。

There's a link in the show notes. CELLO is the mobile first EVM compatible carbon negative blockchain built for the real world, and now something big is happening. Introducing the CELLO layer two. It's a game changing proposal that's going to bring Celo's rapidly growing ecosystem home to Ethereum. Vitalik has shared its excitement for the Celo layer two on the Celo forum, so has Ben Jones from Optimism.

但为什么？Celo二层网络将带来巨大优势，比如去中心化定序器、链下数据可用性以及单区块终局性。这些意味着什么？坚如磐石的安全性、无需信任的以太坊桥接，以及更多无需妥协的以太坊现实应用场景。现实世界的采用正在发生。

But why? The Celo layer two will bring huge advantages, like a decentralized sequencer, off chain data availability, and one block finality. What does all that mean? Rock solid security, a trustless bridge to Ethereum, and more real world use cases for Ethereum without compromise. And real world adoption is happening.

过去六个月Celo活跃地址增长超过500%。有了Celo二层网络，gas费将保持低位，你甚至可以用ERC-20代币支付gas费。但CELO是社区治理协议，这意味着需要你参与发声。加入CELO论坛的讨论吧。

Active addresses on Celo have grown over 500% in the last six months. With the Celo layer two, gas fees will stay low, and you can even pay for gas using ERC 20 tokens. But CELO is a community governed protocol. This means that CELO needs you to weigh in and make your voice heard. Join the conversation in the CELO forum.

关注推特@celoorg并访问celo.org，共同塑造以太坊的未来。

Follow at celoorg on Twitter and visit celo.org to shape the future of Ethereum.

不知道你们是否有同感，但我觉得当我把金钱当作增强自由的工具时，才是我与金钱关系最健康的状态。那种你刚提到的地位陷阱，摩根，那根本不是自由。不，那只是另一个永无止境的疲惫游戏。

I don't know if this rings true for you guys, but I feel like I am at my healthiest with respect to relationship with money when I'm using it as a tool to enhance my freedom. Do you know? And, like, the status trap that you're just talking about, Morgan, that is not freedom. No. That's just another exhausting game that has no end.

就像终极关卡——你永远无法通关，只是换了个跑步机型号。虽然我不总能保持这种状态，但当我与财富关系最健康时，金钱就只是工具而已。

It's like ultimate levels. Like, you can't level up high enough. You're just on this other type of treadmill. And so I'm not always there, but when I'm at my healthiest with respect to relationship to wealth and money, it's just a tool. Yeah.

它只是让我能生活的工具。这虽没回答‘拥有自由后该做什么’的问题，但你必须在边界内寻找幸福——那之后，幸福大概率不会来自更多金钱。

It's just a tool so that I can live my life. Now this doesn't answer the question of if you have that freedom, what do you do with it? Right? You have to find your happiness within those bounds. And after that, it's probably not going to come from more money.

你们有同感吗？

Does that ring true for you?

这方面人人不同。我想说的是，对那些被过高期待折磨的人，这不仅是快乐杀手，我更愿称之为‘社交债务’——种让你窒息的隐形负债。很多亿万富翁的资产，可能还抵不过他们为取悦他人、维持光鲜形象所背负的无形债务，更不用说将自我价值与之绑定的痛苦。广义上说，金钱用途可分两类：

Everyone's definitely different here. And the way that I would say is, like, for those people, not only is that those high expectations, like, not making you happy, I would frame it as social debt. Like, it's a form of debt that's you're buried. And so a lot of people might be their assets, they're billionaires, but they have more than that in this intangible social debt that's holding them down about needing to impress other people, needing to put on a certain, you know, flashiness about who they are, and then then, like, attaching their identity and their value to that is really tough. I think at a broad level, there's two things you can do with money about how it can help you in life or what you can use it for.

要么作为获取幸福的工具，要么作为他人评判你的标尺——通常是陌生人的眼光。当你说‘看Ryan开这车住那房，他肯定很成功’时，显然多数人该选前者。有人说得精辟：顶配丰田比入门宝马更高级，因为前者装满让你驾驶愉悦的配置——

You can use it as a tool to make yourself happier, or you can use it as a measurement for other people to value you at. And, like, mostly strangers of, like, you want other people you're using as a scorecard for other people to look at you and be like, oh, Ryan's clearly successful because he's driving this car. He's living in that house. And when you frame it like that, it's obvious what most people should be doing, using as a tool to make yourself happier rather than showing off. A really succinct way that somebody explains one time is that a high end Toyota is a nicer car than an entry level BMW because the high end Toyota is filled with things that make driving pleasant for you.

真皮座椅、顶级音响、天窗等等。而入门宝马只是炫耀资本，车本身并不出色，但你能向人展示那个车标。生活中很多事都是如此。

Really nice seats, really nice sound system, moonroof, whatever it is. The entry level BMW is just bragging rights. Yeah. It's actually not that great of a car, but you get the decal to show off to other people. And I think a lot of things in life are like that.

对房子如此，对衣服如此，对几乎所有事物都是如此。你可以用它来让自己更快乐，也可以用它来向他人炫耀。而我们花的每一块钱几乎都落入了这两个类别之一。

It's true for houses. It's true for clothes. It's true for, like, all kinds of things. It's like you can use it to make yourself happier, or you can use it to show off to other people. And almost every dollar that we spend falls into one of those two buckets.

我认为当你思考这一点时，自然会促使你意识到——顺便说，那些人甚至根本没在关注你。你试图炫耀的对象根本不在意你。那何必费这个劲？不如做些真正能让你快乐的事。

And I think when you think about that, it pushes you naturally towards of, okay. Like, by the way, those people aren't even paying attention to you. The people who you're showing off for are not even paying attention to you. So why bother doing that? Let's just try to do something that's actually gonna make you happy.

摩根，在上个牛市期间，整个行业的激励机制变得非常糟糕，导致了一些恶劣后果。我认为万物皆分形，历史总会重演。这种情况会再次发生，疯狂的激励机制必将再度出现。

Morgan, during the last bull market, the incentives for this entire industry got real bad, and that led to some bad things. And I think, again, everything's a fractal. Everything kind of repeats. That's going to happen again. There's going to be some bad incentives at play yet again.

你在某个章节的副标题中写道：'当激励机制疯狂时，行为就会疯狂。人们能为几乎所有事情找到辩护理由。'老天，我们在上个加密周期确实见证了这点——人们为各种荒诞事物辩护，甚至包括赤裸裸的庞氏骗局。摩根，从你的视角来看，关于激励机制的力量，你有什么见解？

You wrote in the subtitle of one of your chapters, when incentives are crazy, the behavior is crazy. People can be led to justify and defend nearly anything. And boy, did we see that last cycle in crypto. People justifying and defending all of these bizarre things, you know, literal Ponzi schemes, if you will. I'm curious from your perspective, Morgan, what can you tell us about the power of incentives?

在这个话题上，你有什么智慧可以分享给我们？

What wisdom do you have for us on this topic?

对我来说，在2008年2月金融危机后开始投资生涯，特别是2010年左右'占领华尔街'时期，很多美国人都在骂'去他妈的贪婪华尔街混蛋'，指责高盛、雷曼兄弟的人搞垮了经济。我并非说这种叙事完全错误，边缘确实存在恶劣行为。但人们忽略的是——那些骂银行家的人低估了自己面对700万美元奖金诱惑时，也会像其他人那样打包次贷炸弹的可能性。

So for me, you know, kind of starting my investing career in the aftermath of 02/2008, a lot of that period, particularly like the Occupy Wall Street period around 2010, a lot of it was a lot of Americans saying, screw those greedy Wall Street assholes. The people at Goldman Sachs, people at Lehman Brothers, like, you guys ruined the economy. And I'm not saying that that narrative is wrong. To some extent, there was, like, at the edges, of course, there was very bad behavior. But I think what people missed is the people who could sit there and say, screw those bankers, were underestimating the odds that if they themselves had a $7,000,000 bonus dangled in front of their face, they would have packaged the subprime bombs just like everybody else did.

没错，就像所有人都会做的那样。所以人们其实并不清楚...

Yeah. Just like everybody else did. So, like, people don't know And

如果他们声称自己会拒绝，那很可能是在说谎。

if they say they went, they're probably lying.

胡说八道。人们只有在面对那种诱惑时，才会知道自己道德的边界。换个完全不同的语境——克里斯·洛克有个段子说'男人的忠诚度取决于他们的选择机会'。当然这就像大多数喜剧一样，本质是为了制造争议效果。

Bullshit. People don't know the boundaries of their morality until they've been put in that kind of incentive situation. I mean, to put this in, like, a completely different context, Chris Rock has a skit where he says, men are as faithful as their options. And, of course, it's not that's not that's not like like most Chris Rock like most comedy, it's designed to be Right. Like, you know, like Provocative.

就是为了引发讨论。但我认为金融领域的许多事情也是如此——道德被你的选择机会所限制。当选择机会改变时，你的道德观也会随之改变。

To be provocative. But I think for a lot of things in finance, like, morality is bounded by your options. And when your options change, your morality is gonna change too.

David，我们常说加密货币就像是对你品格的试金石。没错。无论是熊市周期还是牛市周期，这一点始终成立。

David, what you and I often say is, like, crypto is just like an acid test for your character. Yeah. Both the bear cycle and the bull cycle, that that remains true.

是啊。

Yeah.

确实。在加密货币领域，你面临道德伦理考量的速度之快，至少在我经历过的其他生活领域里是前所未有的。

Yeah. The rate at which you are presented with, like, moral and ethical considerations in crypto is, like, faster than any other domain that at least I've experienced in other walks of my life.

没错。在牛市期间尤其艰难，因为所有信号和你周围的人，即使你在做糟糕的事情，所有信号都在说：不，那是对的。你看。

Yeah. And it's really hard during a bull market because all of the signals and all the people around you, even when you are doing terrible things, all the signals are, no. That was the right thing. Right. And look.

这不是

This is not

关于那笔好交易。

on the good trade.

恭喜那笔好交易。但这绝不是为任何行为开脱。

Congrats on the good trade. And this is not to justify any of the behavior whatsoever.

对。

Right.

但我不会感到惊讶，如果2002年9月，Sam Begman Fried睡前还在想：我在做正确的事。这是对的。一切都很顺利。

But I would not be surprised that if in September 2002, Sam Begman Fried went to bed thinking, I'm doing the right thing. This is this is the right thing. This is this is all working out.

有这么一个人。他在Twitter上发了条著名推文，说他采用了一种自认为高盈利的交易策略，后来因市场操纵被CFTC逮捕。他还发了这条

There was this one guy. He made out this famous tweet in Twitter where he makes this tweet where he says, I engaged in what I thought was a highly profitable trading strategy, and later he was arrested for this by the CFTC for market manipulation. And he made this

交易不错，兄弟。

right trade, bro.

这只是笔盈利的交易。

It was just profitable trade.

激励机制可能会让你变得非常盲目。我认为即使是那些事后承认‘我知道自己做错了’的人，在当时也会被激励驱使去相信几乎任何事情。

Incentives can be, like, really blinding to you. And I think even the people who, in hindsight, say, I know what I did was wrong, and I admit to do it. Right. In the moment, the incentives can get you to believe almost anything.

它们确实能左右你。是啊。

They can get you. Yeah.

没错。那么这里的教训是什么？是不是必须警惕起作用的激励机制，并理解它如何扭曲现实认知？

Yeah. So what's the lesson here? Do you have to just, like, beware of the incentives are at play and understand how that can affect distortions of reality?

我认为其中一个教训是，我们低估了世界能变得多疯狂——因为根据我对人性的理解，大多数本质上是善良的（当然不是所有人）。但人们忽视的是：善良的人在错误激励下可能做出极其可怕的事。因此我们低估了各种疯狂事件的可能性，无论是大屠杀还是熊市，事后看来群体决策往往糟糕透顶。

I think one of the lessons is that we underestimate how crazy the world can get because most people that you know and that I know or just my general understanding of how humanity works is I think most people are inherently good. Not everybody, of course, but most people are inherently good. But what people miss and underestimate is that good people with wrong incentives can do some terrible, terrible things. And therefore, we underestimate the odds of all kinds of craziness, whether it's a holocaust or a bear market. We underestimate the odds of a large group of people are, and definitely are in hindsight, really, really bad decisions about what they're doing.

因为在特定情境下，你我可能做出同样的事。若认为被我们批评的人道德更低劣而非处于不同激励环境，那就太愚蠢了。所以第一要警惕自身面临的激励（但这很难）；第二更广泛地说，要拓宽对人类行为边界的认知——正确激励下人们也能创造奇迹。《永恒不变》书中提到：最伟大的技术爆发往往发生在世界动荡时（战争/衰退），比如1940年代‘我们必须立即攻克核能’的紧迫感。

Because in those right circumstances, you and I may have done the exact same thing, And we'd be fools to think that the people who we criticize, that they are less moral than we are versus they were just in a different incentive situation than we are. So a, yes, of course, be careful with incentives that are around yourself, but that's hard to do. I think b, more broadly, is, like, like, expand the boundaries of what you think humans are capable of in positive and negative ways because with the right incentives, people can do amazing things as well. One of the chapters in Same As Ever is about how the biggest technology booms come when the world is on fire. It comes during wars and recessions because the incentive in the nineteen forties is we have to figure out nuclear energy today.

没有比这更重要的事了。

Nothing is more important.

因为如果三个月内无法突破，美利坚合众国可能不复存在。这种激励会以前所未见的速度推动技术发展。所以激励讨论不全是负面，卓越企业也是如此——

Because if we don't figure it out in the next three months, there might not be any more United States Of America. Mhmm. That incentive will supercharge technology like you've never seen before because the incentives are right. So not all of the incentive discussion is about the bad things people can do. There can be great incentives that really push people towards getting everything right, and a lot of the most well run companies are like this too.

它们并非更聪明或信息更灵通，而是建立了更好的激励机制。查理·芒格常举联邦快递的例子：当按小时支付装车工人工资时效率低下；改为‘装满卡车即可带薪下班’后效率骤增。

It's not that they're smarter than everybody else or have better information. It's like they just have a better incentive system for pushing people towards doing the right thing. Charlie Munger always talks about I think it was at FedEx of, like, they used to pay the people who loaded the trucks by the hour, and they were slow because they were just like, we're getting paid by the hour. Just like and then they started paying them by like, hey. When the truck is full, you can go home with a full day's pay.

他们仅仅因为设计出更好的激励机制，生产效率就一夜之间提高了三倍。所以我认为这解释了很多商业中真正强大的护城河——其实就是更优的激励体系。

And they just got like, productivity tripled overnight just because they came up with a better incentive system. So I think that explains a lot of, like, really good moats in business. It's just a better incentive.

没错。我觉得这也解释了上个加密牛市周期中看到的许多崩盘事件，包括Terra Luna。你可能听说过这个算法稳定币项目对吧？那个系统背后的激励机制存在严重扭曲。

Yeah. And I think it explains many collapses that we saw last bull cycle in crypto, including Terra Luna. You may have heard of this in algorithmic stablecoin. Right? The incentives behind that system were massively skewed.

是的，非常糟糕的激励机制导致了最终的大崩盘。所以摩根，这是另一个牛市教训。今早我和大卫在录制节目时分享了我们的牛市建议，总结起来就是这句话：什么也别做。在牛市里你能做的最佳选择其实就是按兵不动。

Yeah. Very bad incentives went into that, and we ended up with a massive collapse. So, Morgan, another bull market lesson. David and I just dispensed on an episode we've recorded this morning some of our bull market advice, and it was summed up in this phrase, do nothing. That's the best thing you can do during a bull market is actually nothing.

你书中有一章叫《过度努力》，里面引用了这句话：'难度不会带来额外分数'。你不会因为用更复杂困难的方式做事而获得加分。能和我们讲讲这章的核心观点吗？在投资领域，特别是在牛市中，过度努力会带来什么问题？

You've got this chapter called trying too hard, and you have this quote, there are no points awarded for difficulty. You don't get any extra points for doing something the harder way for complexity. Can you tell us what you meant in this chapter? What is the problem of trying too hard, and how is that a hazard for us when we approach investing, particularly in a bull market?

尤其是在投资领域。生活中大多数领域里，努力和结果都是正相关的。比如你想提升运动水平或改善体型，更努力就是解决方案。

Yeah. Particularly in investing. I mean, in most fields in life, there is a correlation between effort and outcome. Like, if you wanna get better at sports or you wanna get in better shape, like, you need to work harder. That's the solution.

但投资恰恰相反，大量证据表明人们越努力反而表现越差。因为这本质上是对可控因素的误解——特别是对普通散户甚至高净值投资者而言，你们能控制的除了自身行为外几乎为零。人们总想着：'如果我更努力些，做更多尽调，翻更多石头，把表格算得更精确，结果就会更好'。

And in investing, I just think it's not the case, that if anything, it's the opposite, that there's a lot of evidence that the harder people try, the worse they're going to do. Because at its core, it's a misunderstanding of what you have control over. And particularly for average ordinary individual investors, even high net worth investors, what you have control over is very little. Outside of your own behavior, it's virtually nothing that you have control over. So you wanna think that, like, oh, if I work a little harder and do more diligence and turn over more rocks and, like, have more decimals in the spreadsheet, then you're gonna do better.

如果是马拉松训练，努力程度确实会影响成绩。但投资不存在这种关联。所以你提到牛市时要'无为而治'，我认为熊市同样适用。

Because if you were training for a marathon, like, the harder you work, like, that correlation would exist. But investing it, it just doesn't. And so look. You talked about during the bull market, do nothing. I think in the bear market too.

对我而言，这就是我的投资之道。

To me, I mean, this is how I invest.

确实如此。

Yeah. It's true.

我是个长期定投投资者。每个月我都会投入相同金额到基本相同的标的上，并计划持有五十年。无论是1999年那样的繁荣还是大萧条式的崩盘，我都坚持同样的策略。

I'm a long term dollar cost average investor. Yeah. So every month, I invest the same amount into roughly the same investments, and I plan to keep them there for fifty years. No matter what we're doing, no matter whether it's a 1999 boom or a great depression bust, I plan on doing the same thing. And look.

无论是2019年的繁荣还是2020年3月的崩盘，我都在做同样的事。我的行为丝毫没有改变。当你意识到自己的行为会多么容易被市场起伏的情绪所影响时——是的，如果能将投资策略机械化，告诉自己无论发生什么，我都会在未来若干年里坚持执行X次操作——在我看来，这几乎是不可能被超越的。

Whether it was the 2019 boom or the March 2020 bust, I was doing the same thing. Like, it didn't change whatsoever. And I think when you realize, like, how influenced your behavior can become by the emotions of the ups and downs Yes. To the extent that you can mechanize your investment strategy of just saying, I'm gonna do x this many times for this many years no matter what's happening. To me, it's very hard to beat that.

几年前有篇论文标题大概是《连上帝都无法战胜定投策略》，它基于这样一个观点：他们做了大量回测实验，证明即便带着后见之明去设计资产配置策略——是的，试图在回测中超越定投策略非常困难。你根本找不到合理的策略能真正打败它，因为要从情绪中抽离，不去试图抄底逃顶，这实在太难了。

I mean, there's a paper published a couple years ago, and the title was something along the lines of even god cannot beat dollar cost averaging. And it was based off of this idea that they did all these back tests where they're like, look. Even with hindsight bias, let's try to come up with a strategy Yeah. Like an asset allocation strategy in a back test that will beat taller cost averaging, and it's hard to do it. You can't come up with, like, a reasonable strategy that actually beats it because taking the emotions out of the equation of trying to pick the bottom, trying to pick the top, this is so ridiculously hard.

摩根，我想就这个角度快速探讨一下，因为我不确定这个建议是否完全适用于加密货币市场。在上个牛市周期里，我完全没预料到NFT现象的爆发。而令人既懊恼又兴奋的是，加密牛市就像有上万个小玩意儿突然出现在你桌上旋转起舞——看啊，我的价格在飙升。

Morgan, I wanna see if I can throw a fastball about this particular angle here because there's something that I'm not sure, like, about that advice that resonates with specifically crypto markets. In the last bull cycle, I did not see the whole, like, NFT phenomenon coming. And to our detriment and to our entertainment, crypto bull markets are like 10,000 little doodads and widgets showing up around your desk and spinning all over the place. Like, oh, look at me. I'm going up in price.

嘿，这边又冒出个新东西。我们曾经连续三周炒作文字JPEG图片，价格从零冲到10万美元又归零。关键是作为这个领域的内容创作者，我们不得不深究：为什么它叫'战利品'？这个现象究竟为何会发生？我们必须像诊断病情般分析它。

Oh, I'm a new thing over here. There was one time we all speculated on JPEGs of text for, like, three weeks straight that went from zero to a $100,000 and then back to zero. And the thing is, like, at least for us as content producers in this space, we actually kinda had to, like, focus on, like, why it was called loot. Why did this loot phenomenon even happen at all? We had to, like, kind of diagnose it.

为什么会这样？为什么NFT这些凭空出现的小东西能涨到百万美元又回落（虽然没归零）？某种程度上我们必须关注它，这是加密故事和进化史的一部分。

Like, why did that happen? Like, why are NFTs these little widgets that just appeared out of nowhere that went up to, a million dollars and then back down but not to zero? Like, why is that happening? And so, like, to some degree, we actually have to focus on it. It's a part of the story and evolution of crypto.

所以如果你只定投BTC和ETH，就会错过构成加密世界本质的许多故事。对此你怎么看？

So if you just dollar cost average into BTC and ETH, you would miss a lot of the story of what makes crypto crypto. What would you say to that?

我得说你完全正确，股市也是如此。我是这样理解的：我每天阅读股市新闻，知道道指走势，看《华尔街日报》。

I would say you're totally right, and that's true in the stock market as well. Here's how I'd frame it. I read stock market news every day. Every day, I know what the Dow did. Every day, read The Wall Street Journal.

我了解并关注所有信息，但从不让其影响我的行为。我每天关注这些是因为觉得智力上有启发性，市场就像观察人类行为的窗口，让我乐在其中。

I understand. I'm aware of all of it, but it never influences my behavior. I pay attention to it every day because I think it's intellectually stimulating. I think it's fascinating. I think markets are a window into human behavior that I enjoy.

但如果我每天打开CNBC看吉姆·克莱默的节目，然后跟风买卖，这几乎肯定会损害你的长期收益。

But if every day I turned on CNBC and watched Jim Kramer and said, I need to go buy this and sell that, that is almost certainly gonna be a detriment to your long term success.

不，大多数

No. Most of

它。大部分所以这里是另一件事。我要第十次在节目上说，我不是加密货币投资者。我关注所有相关动态。我了解正在发生的叙事，因为我觉得这非常迷人。

it. Most of So here's here's the other thing. I would say for the tenth time on the show, I'm not a crypto investor. I follow all of it. I'm aware of the narrative that's happening because I think it's so fascinating.

至少算得上娱乐吧，摩根？你觉得这很有趣吗？

Entertaining at least, Morgan? Do you find it entertaining?

我不会用娱乐这个词。我会说它在智力上很刺激。是的。因为娱乐几乎就像是从他人的情绪中取乐。

I wouldn't use the word entertainment. I would say intellectually stimulating. Yeah. Because entertaining is just like is almost like taking pleasure at other people's emotions.

嗯。确实如此。

Mhmm. For sure.

但我认为这很迷人。所以即使我没有采取行动，我也在密切关注。因为我认为你是对的，大卫，理解这些事情为何发生的叙事极其重要。而我能够成为长期买入持有的投资者，原因之一就是我知道叙事与长期经济增长之间的脱节可以如此之大，但如果我不每天都在研究这些，我就不会明白这一点。正如你所说，这真的很重要。

But I think it's fascinating. So even if I'm not taking action on it, I'm paying attention to it. Because I think you are right, David, that, like, understanding the narrative of why these things happen is incredibly important. And I think one of the ways that I am able to be a long term buy and hold investor is because I know that the disconnect between narratives and long term economic growth can be so detached, but I would not understand that unless I was studying them all day every day. To your point, this is really important.

很多长期投资者会说，哦，我要投资未来二十年。我不需要关注短期。不。不。不。长期只是由无数短期组成的，你需要经历、忍受并存活下来，才能到达长期。

A lot of long term investors are just like, oh, I'm investing for the next twenty years. I don't need to pay attention to the short No. No. No. The long term is just a collection of short terms, and you need to experience and endure and survive them in order to get to the long term.

所以认为你可以忽视短期，我认为是错误的。这正是许多长期投资者偏离轨道的原因——他们以为自己可以忽略它。但不，你必须关注并理解发生了什么。即使你的理解是这很荒谬、疯狂，你们都会亏钱。

So to say that you can just, like, dismiss the short term, I think, is wrong. That's what derails a lot of long term investors is that they think they can ignore it. But, like, no. You have to pay attention to it and understand what's going on. Even if your understanding is this is absurd, and it's crazy, and you're all gonna lose your money.

这种理解是你需要关注的。

That's an understanding that you need to pay attention to.

我从中学到的教训是，过度努力就像典型的中期曲线模因。对吧？就像...如果你看那么多牛市，你最好可能就是买一个加密货币指数，或者买些蓝筹币，买比特币和以太坊，然后持有并随波逐流。而中期曲线做法则是，哦，这个资产在暴涨。

The way I take away the lesson from this, the trying too hard thing is the classic kind of mid curve type meme. Right? Which is like Yeah. If you look at so many bull markets, the best thing you can probably do is buy, like, an index of crypto assets or buy some of blue chips, buy Bitcoin and Ether, and then just kinda hold and just ride it. Whereas the mid curve approach is like, oh, this asset's pumping.

我得去研究它。让我每周花几个小时分析，研究最好的代币并配置资金。我敢说绝大多数这类加密货币投资者的表现，都不如简单地买入并持有加密货币前25指数或直接投资比特币以太坊。这就是你说的过度努力的意思。

I gotta go research that. Let me do this, you know, hours of analysis every week and research the best possible tokens and allocate it there. I bet the vast majority of those types of crypto investors did not perform a simple buy and hold strategy of a crypto, you know, top 25 indices or just a straight Bitcoin ether investment. That's what you mean by, like, trying too hard.

是啊，我也很好奇，因为这在股票市场显然非常流行。但你们知道有没有加密货币投资者会每月定期定额投资比特币和以太坊，比例达到100%？

Yeah. I'm curious too because it's obviously very popular in stocks. But do you guys know are there crypto investors that dollar cost average into Bitcoin and ETH A 100%. Every single month.

这就是我们的策略。我们就是这么做的。

That's our program. That's what we do.

我很确定你正在看的就是这个。没错。我更倾向于一次性买入，但Ryan是坚定的定期定额投资者。

I'm pretty sure you're looking at it. That's it. Yeah. I'm more of a lump buyer, but Ryan's a big DCA guy.

哦，终身定期定额投资。因为从心理上说，这样轻松多了。

Oh, DCA for life. Just because it's psychologically, it's so much easier.

那么像你们这样的投资者大概占多少比例？在交易者光谱中你们处于什么位置？通过这种方式，你们已经超越了90%、95%的研究进出时机的投资者。

And what percentage of those investors like you like, where would you sit on the spectrum of traders? You've outperformed 90%, 95% by doing that versus the research in and out.

我得说，目前还没有关于这方面的可靠研究。虽然你可以观察比特币和以太坊的长期表现。我认识的那些经历多次加密周期并变得极其富有的人，都是采用这种策略。对，就是简单的买入并持有。

I will say like, I don't think any, you know, good studies have come out about this. Although there are like, you kind of you could look at Bitcoin ether performance over time. I will say everybody who has been through crypto in multiple cycles that I know who has gotten extremely wealthy, that's their approach. Yeah. It's just simple buy and hold.

我认识的交易者非常少。事实上，上个周期被加密货币圈捧上神坛的那些交易者

I know very few traders. In fact, the traders that many in crypto put on a pedestal last cycle

都爆仓了。

Blew up.

他们有些人现在正在坐牢，有些人的对冲基金已经破产了。

Some of them are in jail right now. Some of them have blown up their hedge funds.

没错。

Yeah.

对吧？没错。举个例子，你可以通过交易赚钱，但大约95%的人做不到，而且收听这个播客的99.9%的人相比简单的定投蓝筹资产策略都会失败。

Right? Yeah. And so, like, case in point, you can make money as a trader, but, like, 95% of people can't, and 99.9% of people listening to this podcast are going to fail at that relative to a simple dollar cost average into blue chip assets strategy.

嗯。而且我认为在加密货币领域心理上更难做到，因为牛市期间的FOMO（错失恐惧症）比股市更极端。在股市里，定投者每年大概赚8%，而炒作热门股票的人赚20%。虽然更多，但不会多得太离谱。

Mhmm. And I think it's probably harder psychologically to do it in crypto because the FOMO during bull market is more extreme than it would be in the stock market. So in the stock market, a dollar cost average investor is gonna earn, let's just say, 8% per year. And the meme stock investor is earning 20%. Like, it's more, but it's not absurdly more.

而在加密货币领域，定投者在牛市期间每年赚30%，但那些炒垃圾币的家伙每年能赚17000%。

Whereas I think in crypto, the DCA investors, you know, during the bull market's making 30% per year, but the shitcoin guys earning 17000% per year.

对，正是这样。

Right. Exactly what happened.

所以看到这种差距产生的FOMO，让人更难坚持定投策略。

So the FOMO between watching that, it makes it harder to maintain that.

我觉得加密货币领域的一大问题是，你把我们之前讨论的嫉妒心理——看到垃圾币投资者可能随机获得万倍收益——与整个行业的特性混在一起。我和Ryan都承认，我们很不擅长按下卖出按钮。

I think that one of the big problems I would say in crypto is that you mix what we were talking about earlier with envy with the shitcoin investor who can randomly get, like, a 10,000 x mixed with what I would kind of say and about the entire industry, me and definitely Ryan are just like, we're bad at hitting the sell button.

是啊。

Yeah.

我们

We

确实如此。如果你是定投者，其实不需要频繁操作。这某种程度上正是定投的意义所在。

are. And like, if you're a DCAer, you don't really need to as much. That's actually kind of the point of DCA.

确实。没错。

Sure. Yeah.

但对我来说，一方面我是定投策略的忠实信徒，另一方面我也会完全跟风买入那些搞笑的表情包币，纯粹图个乐子。而且我也在期待千倍涨幅。没错。然后真涨了千倍我又舍不得卖，最后其实也无所谓了。

But, like, for me, I'm like, I'm a DCAer on one side, but I will totally ape into that meme coin just because it's funny. And I also I'm hoping for the thousand x. Yeah. And then I'll get the thousand x, and then I won't sell it. And then it won't really matter.

注意

Watch

要我说，我们这个行业的人普遍都不擅长点击卖出按钮。

it. I would say, like, we're, as an industry, kinda bad at hitting the sell button.

如果你这么做，用一小部分资金去跟风投机——当然可以。这很棒。就像我们开场说的，股市投资者和加密投资者的行为模式维恩图高度重合，因为很多股票投资者会说：'嘿，我90%的钱都会定投先锋基金。

And if you're doing that, if you're aping into the shit going with a small percentage of your money Sure. Then, like, it's great. Yeah. Like, back to what we started this podcast, the Venn diagram of stock market investors and crypto investors of how they behave is very overlapped because so many stock investors will be like, hey. 90% of my money is gonna be dollar cost averaging to Vanguard.

剩下10%我要找点乐子。我要交易，要挑选我认为未来五年会爆发的科技股。'我觉得这是非常健康的投资方式——明确核心资产驱动退休计划，同时留出满足智力好奇心的空间来保持参与感。这很有趣，还能学习投资知识。

10%, I'm gonna have fun with. I'm gonna trade, and I'm gonna buy I'm gonna pick the tech stocks that I think are gonna boom over the next five years. And I think that's a perfectly healthy way to invest, to be like, look. This is the core of what's gonna drive my retirement, but this is the intellectual itch that I need to be itched in order to stay engaged with the game. And it's fun, and I learn about investing.

所以我认为这和股市里长期存在的现象与如今加密市场的状况形成了完美对应。

So I think, like, that it's a perfect parallel with what has always existed in the stock market with now exists in crypto.

摩根，我有点完美主义倾向。你能开导我一下吗？你在书中专门用一章讲了不完美的巨大优势。或许可以结合刚才讨论的牛市——我见过很多投资者（虽然我现在不这么做了），记得刚入行时我也曾痴迷于精准择时，总想买在绝对底部。

So Morgan, I'm a bit of a perfectionist. I'm wondering if you can kind of like walk me off that ledge because you have a chapter that talks about the huge advantage to being imperfect. And maybe I'll tie this to the bull market that we've just been talking about too, which is I see many investors and I don't do this anymore, but I remember a time when I was newer and used to do this where I would obsessively try to perfectly time the top and the bottom. So, like, I just wanna buy at the very bottom. This is before my dollar cost average day, and I just, like, look at the chart.

那时还没开始定投，我就整天盯着图表想：到底见底了吗？可能还会更低吧？但你书中提到了不完美的价值。能具体讲讲吗？不完美有什么价值？

Like, is it the bottom yet? Well, it could go lower, and I'm trying to, like, perfectly time that. But you talk in your book about the value of imperfection. Tell us about that. What is the value of imperfection?

生活中大多数事情都需要承认：在充满不确定性的世界里，容错空间有多重要。追求绝对效率意味着零容错，这在意外发生时每次都会让你崩溃。比如过去三十年汽车制造业追求极致效率——准时制生产、最低库存。结果2021年需求暴增供应链断裂时，他们全都傻眼了。

Well, for most things in life, it's just acknowledging how powerful room for error is in a world that's uncertain. If you're try always trying to be perfectly efficient, what perfectly efficient means is no room for error, which during the periods of surprise is gonna wipe you out every single time. I mean, we saw this with a lot of, like, car manufacturing, where for the last thirty years or so, the push has been become, let's be as efficient as we can. Just in time manufacturing, manufacturing, like, less low inventories we can hold. And then you have a period in 2021 where the demand for cars explodes and supply chains break, and they're all screwed.

在新车需求创纪录的时期，他们却因供应链没有容错空间而无法供货。想象如果他们保留10%的缓冲空间——虽然过去三十年利润会略低，但在2021年本可以大赚特赚。

During this period where the demand for new cars has never been higher, they couldn't supply them because they had no room for error in their supply chain. And you can imagine a world in which they had 10% room for error. And for most of the last thirty years, their earnings were marginally lower. But in 2021, they could have cleaned up. They could have just gotten all of it.

所以保留这种缓冲空间感觉就像一种无谓损失。在十年中有九年它都像是机会成本。然后第十年，你不仅弥补了所有损失还额外赚了一笔。我认为这非常重要。关于抄底的问题，股市中历来如此——试图避开熊市所损失的钱，往往比直接承受熊市还要多。

So it's like having that room for slack, it feels like a deadweight loss. It feels like an opportunity cost in nine out of 10 years. And then one out of 10 years, you make all of it up and then some. I think that's really important. To the point about picking the bottom, I mean, it's always been the case in the stock market that more money has been lost trying to avoid bear markets than just enduring them.

投资中巨额亏损往往来自那些总说'必须在股票下跌前卖出'或'必须在大涨前买入'的人，正是这种试图精准择时的行为导致了亏损。而那些不追求完美的人，比如定期定额投资者——他们本质上承认自己会在高点买入，因为每月固定投资必然会有买在高点的月份，这看起来效率极低。但这样做反而能获得最佳结果，因为你没有陷入妄想预判市场顶底的疯狂行为。

And a lot of tremendous amount of money is lost in investing by people who are saying, need to sell before stocks fall or I need to buy in before like, just that trying to pick the perfect point is why they lose money. And the people who are imperfect, like the dollar cost average investors, who I'm saying, by definition, I'm going to buy at the top. By definition, because I'm gonna buy every single month. There's gonna be a month when I buy stocks, and that's not efficient at all. But by doing that, you're actually gonna end up with the best outcome because you're not engaging in the crazy behavior of trying to pretend that you know when it's gonna peak, when it's gonna bottom.

所以很多事情都是这样：旁观时你会觉得'应该能做得更好，我明明能看出所有这些低效之处'。但真正的领悟是——在这个充满不确定性的世界里，保持些许不完美反而是你能做到的最好状态。在一个不确定的世界里，追求绝对效率本质上是在说'未来虽不可知，但我却预知未来'，这种认为投资组合不需要容错空间的想法，背后藏着惊人的自负。

So think there are a lot of things where it's like, you look at it from the outside and you say, should be able to do better than that. I can spot all this inefficiency. But it's actually the realization is like, that's actually the best that you can do is being a little bit imperfect in a world where there's uncertainty. In an uncertain world, having anything that is perfectly efficient is, like, by definition, you're saying that the future is uncertain, but I know what the future is gonna hold. It's like incredible amount of ego that's wrapped up with the idea that you don't need room for error in your portfolio.

因此，承认并重视容错空间和不完美的价值，是这个理念的重要组成部分。

So acknowledging and appreciating the value of room for error and imperfection is a big part of this.

我觉得我个人也需要应用这个理念。比如稍微摆脱完美主义性格，那也可能很危险。不过这是把双刃剑，因为对某些事情它也有好处。

I feel like I need to apply that personally a little bit too. Like, get that perfectionist personality out of my life a little bit. Like, that can be hazardous as well. Although it's a two edged sword because it can also be good for certain things as well.

我想说另一个常见领域...是的...就是人们如何安排日程。对。就像人人都知道的那种Instagram网红，宣称'我3:45起床，3:47就开始做深蹲'。

I'll say one other area where this comes up a lot Yeah. Is how people schedule their day. Yes. And, like, everyone knows, like, the Instagram influencer who's like, I wake up at 03:45, and at 03:47, I'm I'm doing squats. Yeah.

但其实如果你研究真正成功人士的日常，大体上他们的时间表都充满非结构化的自由时间。

I'm good. But if you actually study, like, very successful people, by and large, their day is filled with unstructured free time.

嗯哼。

Uh-huh.

这看起来低效。但这些自由时间让他们得以思考、创造和沉思——这才是他们真正解决问题的方式。而那个把从起床到睡觉每分每秒都安排满的Instagram网红...他根本没有...嗯...创造力时间。嗯。

And that looks inefficient. But what they do is, like, that unstructured free time gives them time to think, gives them time to be creative, gives them time to ponder, which is, like, that's how they actually solve problems. And the guy on Instagram who is scheduled every second from the time he wakes up to time is good, he has no time Mhmm. To be creative. Mhmm.

没有思考的时间。所以看似低效的时间安排，长期来看反而是最佳选择。

No time to think. So that's where, like, a schedule that looks inefficient is actually the best that you can do over time.

我状态最佳的时候，就是日程表空空如也、每周能为简报狂写三篇文章的时候。是啊。可惜已经很久没能这样了，不过我现在仍保持大约每两周一篇的节奏。还算不错。

When I am at my best is when my calendar is empty and I'm banging out, like, three articles a week for the newsletter. Yeah. Sadly, I haven't been able to do that in a while, but I'm still still putting around or maybe, like, once every two weeks. It's pretty good.

巴菲特经常谈到这点。他几乎每天日程都是空的。他刻意避免安排会议或电话，因为他毕生都习惯醒来后让思维自由驰骋——今天要解决什么问题？让我们保持创造力，深入思考。如果每分每秒都被安排，就做不到这点。

This something that Buffett talks a lot about. His schedule is empty almost every single day. He goes out of his way, like, scheduled meetings, no scheduled phone calls because he's lived his entire life just waking up and letting his mind run free. What's the problem I'm trying to solve today? Let's just try to be creative and, like, really think this through, and you can't do that if you're scheduled every second.

摩根，我们聊过牛市时你的策略，也讨论过熊市时的建议。但加密货币领域大部分时间其实处于中间状态——那种乏味的平淡期。我觉得2023年整年基本就是这种略显无聊的状态。

So, Morgan, we talked about the bull market and you'd have for that. We talked about the bear market and advice you'd have for that. There is this in between place that we actually spend probably the majority of our time in crypto, which is, like, this kind of boring place. And I think that has probably been the entirety of 2023. It was just been a little more boring.

2022年经历了最糟情况，2023年则有些平淡。我想请教你对这个周期阶段的看法，因为你书中专门用'狂喜与绝望'章节探讨乐观与悲观的对立。在这种平淡期，我发现自己常在两种情绪间挣扎。

Like, the worst happened in 2022, and 2023 has been a little bit boring. And I wanna ask you about that part of the cycle because I think you have some advice there. In particular, one of your chapters is juxtaposing optimism and pessimism. It's called elation and despair. And I find during these, like, kind of boring periods of time, I find myself wrestling with these things.

有时我觉得：哇，人类文明真了不起！互联网发展多棒，创造了巨大价值。

Sometimes I'm like, oh, wow. Humanity, things are going great. Like, everything's amazing. The Internet couldn't be better. Look how much, like, value it's bringing.

加密货币必将改变世界。但有时又觉得：看看这个行业，简直不敢相信这些乱象，完全是在浪费人类潜力。

Crypto is going to absolutely change the world. Other times, I'm like, wow. Look at this industry. Like, what I can't believe what's going on. Like, what an absolute waste of human potential.

懂我意思吗？我就在乐观与悲观间摇摆。最健康的态度应该是什么？关于这两种心态，你有什么心得？我们应该永远乐观吗？

You know what I mean? So I float between these areas of optimism and pessimism. What is the most healthy way to be? Is it what have you learned, I guess, about optimism and pessimism? Should we always be optimistic?

悲观是否有其价值？我们是否该寻求平衡？

Is there value in pessimism? Are we trying to find the balance here?

首先我要说，我们现在或去年经历的加密货币平淡期，其实可能是最危险的阶段。就像那句话说的：爱的反面不是恨，而是漠然。这个领域正是如此。做金融媒体的都知道，熊市才是流量巅峰期。

I would first say that these periods of mediocrity of, like, periods of flatlining that we're going through maybe now or the last year in crypto, those can actually be the most dangerous periods. Because it's like the saying, the opposite of love is not hate. It's indifference. And that's what tends to happen here. So, look, if you're in the financial journalism media space, you know there is nothing better for your page views than a bear market.

熊市时人人关注，你会高度投入。而平淡期大家都会离场。虽然没具体数据，但我敢打赌2023年离开的加密货币投资者比2022年底还多。

Everybody's paying attention during the bear market. And so that's when you're actually you're hyper engaged. It's during the flat period that everyone abandons the game. And so I don't have this data, but I would bet that more crypto investors left in 2023 than left in late twenty twenty two.