AI泡沫、稳定币热潮与追逐梦想 | BG2对话比尔·格利和布拉德·格斯特纳

我为这项创新鼓掌。我、我、我正跳上加密货币的列车，我希望、希望那些既得利益者无法在华盛顿扼杀它。

I'm applauding the innovation. I'm I'm I'm jumping on board to crypto train, and I hope I hope the incumbents aren't able to strangle this thing in Washington.

嘿，老兄。很高兴见到你。

Hey, man. Great to see you.

很高兴见到你，布拉德。

Good to see you, Brad.

多么不可思议的大学体育周末啊。你知道我必须提这个。我的意思是，好吧。德州大学爆冷击败了排名第六的俄克拉荷马大学。你肯定很兴奋吧。

What an incredible weekend of college sports. You know I have to bring this up. I mean Okay. Texas had that big upset of number six Oklahoma. You had to be pretty stoked about that.

是场好比赛。

Was a good game.

很有趣。那些没去过中立场地比赛的人可能不知道。就像佛罗里达对佐治亚，德州对俄克拉荷马，他们每年在德州博览会中间碰面。所以体育场外面有好几十万人。

Was fun. People that haven't been to a neutral site game. So like Florida does with Georgia, Texas OU, they meet every year in the middle of the Texas fair. So the stadium's got several 100,000 people outside of it.

哦，天哪。

Oh my god.

当你进入体育场，正好在50码线两侧，你知道，一边全是主队球迷，另一边全是客队球迷。所以声音很大，此起彼伏。这种体验与你通常见到的主场球队、全场观众只为一支队伍加油的情况截然不同。

And when you get inside right on the 50 on both fifties, you know, all one team on the other and all the other fans on the other. So it's loud, and it goes back and forth. And it's unlike an experience you get where there's a home team and the crowd's all just rooting for one team.

哦，那太酷了。我的印第安纳人队，我的印第安纳胡希尔队爆冷击败了排名第三的鸭子队，我看到他们六战全胜。而我——

Oh, that's cool. Well, my Hoosiers, my Indiana Hoosiers bill upset the number three ducks I saw to that. Six and o. And I I have a

我的朋友圈里有很多鸭子队球迷，所以我得——我得忍住不和你一起庆祝。

lot of duck fans in my in my friend group, so I'm gonna I'm gonna refrain from celebrating with you.

但我必须——我习惯了庆祝胡希尔篮球队的胜利，但胡希尔橄榄球队很少这样。不过科特·西格内蒂在扭转那个项目上做了难以置信的工作。我90岁的母亲看了那场比赛，还给我发来了逐场解说。所以恭喜——恭喜胡希尔队。

But I I have to I'm used to celebrating Hoosier basketball, but rarely Hoosier football. But Kurt Signeti's done an unbelievable job turning that program around. My 90 year old mother was watching that game and sending me play by play. So congrats to congrats to the Hoosiers.

好吧，既然我们在点名大学橄榄球队，然后我们可以继续。UCLA赛季开局0胜4负，之后在主场爆冷击败宾州州立大学，几乎没有球迷在场，这周又大胜一场。而且，显然在0胜4负后换了个教练。所以这可能是大学橄榄球历史上最大的逆转。加油，棕熊队。

Well, as long as we're calling out college football teams, and then we can move on. UCLA starts the season o and four, then upstate upsets Penn State at home with almost no fans there and wins big again this week. And, apparently, there was a coaching change after the o and four. So this could be the biggest turnaround in the history of college football. Go Bruins.

相当不可思议。所以今天世界上发生了这么多事情。我们要剖析其中一些事情。比尔，我们要跟进我在詹森播客中提出的一些问题，你知道，最新的人工智能公告，所有这些泡沫讨论，收入的循环性，收入质量，人工智能监管。但我们今天还要做点别的事，聊聊我们不常在播客中谈论的话题，那就是生活和职业。

Pretty incredible. So there's so much happening in the world today. We're gonna unpack a a few of those things. We're gonna follow-up on some of the issues, Bill, that I raised in the Jensen pod, you know, the latest AI announcements, all this bubble talk, circularity of revenues, quality of revenues, AI regulation. But we're also gonna do something today and cover something we don't often talk about on the pod, and that's like life and career.

比尔，你有一本重磅新书即将出版，《追逐梦想，如何在你真正热爱的职业中茁壮成长》。我对这本书非常兴奋。所以我们今天也要稍微谈谈这个。而且，在这个背景下，你知道，我们即将迎来这个播客的两周年纪念。我简直不敢相信。

Bill, you have a huge book coming out, Running Down a Dream, How to Thrive in a Career You Actually Love. I'm so excited for this book. So we're also gonna talk a little bit about that today. And and in the context of that, you know, we're coming up on the two year anniversary of this pod. I can't believe it.

时光飞逝。但你知道，当我们当初讨论做这件事时，我们说我们的使命，其实是希望通过投资分析师的视角来探讨市场、投资、资本主义和公司。我认为，最重要的是，你和我都是分析师。我们试图找出世界上最大的问题、机遇和挑战，深入研究它们。你知道，我们不停地交流想法。

Time has flown by. But our you know, when you and I talked about about doing this, we said our mission, really, we wanna talk about markets, investing, capitalism, and companies, but really through the eye and the investment analyst. You and I more than anything else, I think, are analysts. We try to find the biggest problems, opportunities, challenges in the world, study them deeply. You know, we compare notes nonstop.

偶尔，作为一名分析师，这会引导你产生一个重大的投资想法。有时它会让你做一期播客，也许写一篇文章，为你教一堂课写这本书，有时甚至是一个重大的政策倡议，比如实际上已成为法律的《美国投资法案》。我认为你会同意，过去两年的反响令人惊叹，超出了你或我的预期。但你知道，这也带来了自身的压力，需要展现自己，提供那些独特的见解，而这需要花费大量时间。是的。

Occasionally, as an analyst, it leads you to a big investment idea. Sometimes it leads you to a podcast, maybe writing an article, teaching a class for you writing this book, and sometimes even a major policy initiative like the Invest America Act that actually became law. I think you would agree with me the response over the last two years has been amazing, more than either you or I expected. But you know, that also creates its own pressure of its own to show up, to deliver those unique insights, and this takes a bunch of time. Yeah.

因此，考虑到这一点，我不想拐弯抹角，你有一些即将开展的重大项目要忙，你将退出播客的共同主持。我可能偶尔还会邀请你作为嘉宾，但你现在腾出时间来专注于你的重大热情，比如这本书，并更深入地探讨人们在这里听你谈论的话题，如美中关系、监管俘获、美国医疗保健系统的功能失调。对于感兴趣的人来说，播客的使命保持不变。我会保留相同的名称。我们将继续与我尊重的分析师们畅谈，有时也会和比尔一起，并覆盖重要的话题。

So given that, and I don't wanna bury the lead here, you have some huge upcoming projects you wanna work on, and you're gonna step back from the cohosting the pod. I'll still talk you in on occasion maybe to being a guest, but you're freeing up time to work on your big passions like this book and going deeper into these topics that people have heard you talk about here, US China relations, talking about regulatory capture, the dysfunctional state of US health care. And for those interested, the pod's mission remains the same. I'm gonna keep the same name. We're gonna keep chopping it up with analysts I respect, sometimes with Bill, and covering topics that matter.

你知道，比如上周与黄仁勋的播客，或者我即将与萨姆·奥尔特曼或萨提亚进行的播客。我认为这是一个真正具有独特意义的时刻。我们都认识到了这一点。我们很感激有机会开源这些真正塑造未来的对话。我知道我也代表你发言。

You know, like last week's pod with Jensen Huang or upcoming pods I have with Sam Altman or Satya. This is a moment of, I think, really unique consequence. We both recognize that. We're grateful to have the opportunity to open source these conversations that are truly shaping the future. And I know I speak for you.

我们这样做是出于对这份事业的热爱。就像，这让我们保持敏锐。它让我们保持警觉。你知道吗？而且，能够在这里畅谈并与给予我们——你知道——已经给予我们这么多的科技生态系统分享一些东西，真的是一种荣幸。

We do it for the love of the game. Like, this keeps us sharp. It keeps us on edge. You know? And it's a privilege, really, to get on here and chop it up and share something back with the tech ecosystem that gives us you know, has given us so much.

所以，比尔，你知道，你有什么想说的吗？这两年真的很不错。

So, Bill, you know, you have anything you wanna say? It's a good two year run.

当然。是的。首先，非常感谢你，布拉德。就像，这样来回交流真的很棒。我当初参与进来时有两个主要的计划。

Sure. Yeah. First of all, just thanks to you, Brad. Like, this has been great going back and forth. I had two primary initiatives coming into it.

正如你提到的，其一是保持敏锐，其二是分享与回馈。自从我成为卖方分析师以来，近三十年间我一直在撰写对科技行业的思考，一直很享受这种大声思考的过程。我认为这让我们作为分析师变得更好，帮助我们理解事物。但我也喜欢与人分享。毫无疑问，这件事的发展远超我最初的预期。

One, as you mentioned, was to stay sharp, and the other one was to share and give back. And I've been writing my thoughts on on the tech industry since I was a sell side analyst for coming up on thirty years and always enjoyed thinking out loud. I I think it makes us better as analysts and helps us to understand. But but I also like to share with people. And there's no question in my mind that this got bigger than I ever anticipated that it would.

我曾在国际都市被人追着认出来。最近，我开始和某人交谈，他们完全不知道我的长相。但一听到我的声音，他们就说，哦，你是那个播客里的人。所以它确实很受欢迎。

I've been chased down in international cities. Recently, I was I started talking with someone. They had no idea what I looked like. But the minute they heard my voice, they're like, oh, you're the guy from the podcast. So it it has been popular.

我知道会有一些人对我不满。我只能说，我很抱歉。我道歉，因为我不会再继续做下去了。我偶然看到一句非常鼓舞我的话：生活始于舒适区的尽头。

And I I know there are gonna be people that are upset with me. And I I can only say, you know, I'm sorry. And I apologize that I'm not gonna be doing it anymore. I came across this quote that was really inspiring to me. It said, life begins where your comfort zone ends.

有很多人推动我写这本书。在过去的八年里，它占用了相当多的时间。这是一个非常漫长的项目。我们稍后会详细讨论。但我感到一种召唤，要去研究或至少尝试研究一些更大的问题。

And there were a number of people that helped push me to write the book. It's taken up quite a bit of time in the last eight years. It's been a very long project. We'll talk about it more later. But I'm feeling a calling to go work on or at least attempt to work on some of these bigger issues.

所以我想为此创建一个平台。我想为它腾出空间，稍微远离我非常熟悉和热爱的领域，但推动自己走出舒适区，并希望能对真正重要的事情产生影响。

So I wanna create a platform for that. I wanna create room for it and and move a bit away from the space that I do know quite well and love quite a bit, but, pushing myself, you know, outside of my own comfort zone and hopefully, you know, having an impact on things that really matter.

在我整个从事'投资美国'项目期间，我们一直在讨论这件事。我当然鼓励并推动你去做这件事。我认为你能做出巨大贡献。听着，你知道，我们每天一起讨论，我知道你在很多这些问题上的立场。我会把这些观点带给我们的听众。

You and I talked about this throughout the entire time I was working on Invest America. I certainly encourage you and push you to to do this. I think you have an enormous amount to contribute. And listen, when I you know, you and I chop it up together every day, I I know where you stand on a lot of these issues. I'll bring those opinions to bear for our audience.

而且，我知道你肯定会有强烈的需求，偶尔作为嘉宾来分享一些观点。但本着分析的精神，让我们直接开始吧。这个AI资金泡沫法案和黄仁勋播客，我们先谈谈这个。你知道，我们已经有一连串的公告，包括今早OpenAI和博通的又一公告，OpenAI将建造自己的推理加速器，总计超过万亿美元的增量资本支出。这超出了我们已经知道将要建设的部分。

And, you know, I certainly know that you'll have the burning need to come on as a guest on occasion and and share some of those views. But but in the spirit of analysis, let's let's just dive in. This AI money bubble bill and this Jensen pod, let's start by talking about that. You know, we've had a just a flurry of announcements, including another announcement this morning between OpenAI and Broadcom, where OpenAI is going to be building their own inference accelerator amounting to well over a trillion dollars of incremental CapEx. That's above and beyond what we already knew was going to get built out.

我知道您对资本支出的绝对水平有所担忧，我也清楚您对其融资方式有重大疑虑。能否请您详细谈谈您的主要顾虑？

I know that you have concerns about the level of CapEx, the absolute level, and I know that you also have meaningful concerns about how it's being financed. Why don't you walk us through your major concerns?

我认为任何研究过金融史的人都会了解，历史上某些行为模式——姑且这么说——往往会亮起红灯。您知道，如果您提到'循环收入'，任何人工智能都能明白您的意思，正是因为过去有人以不当方式使用过这个概念。我在推特上做过一个练习，可以放在节目备注里供大家查看。但我想说的是，这并非单一问题。

I think anybody that's been a student of financial history has, you know, studied different types of activities that that historically, let's just say historically, created red flags. And the reason that, you know, any AI you talk to would know what you mean if you said circular revenues is because someone has used it in the past in a way that that wasn't good. And, you know, I had an exercise which I tweeted. We can put in the show notes people can find. But I just described you know, there's not one thing.

目前已经发生了大约六笔我认为非正常的交易。我向ChatGPT描述了这些情况，要求它分别从会计师和金融投资者的角度进行分析。人工智能仅通过交易类型的描述，就会自然联想到安然公司、世通公司这类企业。因此我认为，如果我们相信智能AI的判断，这说明历史上已经形成了处理这类问题的最佳实践方式。我之前也说过，您曾指出某些估值倍数其实并不算太高。

There's, like, six different transactions that have happened now that I would say are non normal. And I just described those things to ChadGBT and ask it for its analysis both as an accountant and as a financial investor. And the AI itself, you know, would would find its way toward company names like Enron and WorldCom and those kind of things merely by describing the type of transaction. And so I think that suggests if we believe in intelligent AI, that that's just what historically has become the best practice and way to think about these things. And I've I've told you before, I think you you have highlighted that some of the multiples are actually not that high.

我认为部分原因就在于人们正在关注这些危险信号。

And I think this is part of the reason because there are red flags that people are looking at.

如果进一步剖析这个问题——您我讨论过的循环交易本质——我认为存在一个光谱区间。光谱一端是纯粹的虚假交易：产品没有实际需求，我转你十亿美元，你再把这笔钱转回给我。这显然是虚假交易，因为缺乏真实需求。光谱另一端则是：我的产品需求旺盛，你有多种融资渠道，而我们恰好在投资关系之外还存在产品采购关系。

If you peel that back a little bit more, you know, one of the things that you and I have talked about, the very nature, you know, of round tripping or circular revenues, you know, I think there's this continuum on one end of the trend on one end of the continuum is a true sham transaction. There's no underlying demand for the product, I send you a billion dollars, you send me the billion dollars back. Right? That's clearly a sham transaction, because there's no underlying demand. On the other end, I have massive demand for my product, you have plenty of places you can go get capital, and we just happen to have an investment relationship in addition to that, and I'm buying your product.

这类情况在我们的经济体中随处可见。或许需要保持关注，但远未构成违法，坦白说也不会让我对收入质量产生太大疑虑。而介于两者之间的中间地带——我们可以提出这样的问题：如果没有这笔投资，是否还会有如此规模的收入或产品被采购？

And those things happen all over the place in our economy. And, you know, maybe something to pay attention to, but it's certainly not even close to being illegal. And it frankly doesn't even cause me a lot of concerns about the quality of revenue. And then we have things in the middle, right? These things in the middle where you can ask a question like, would this much of revenue or product had been purchased but for this investment?

对吧？我认为这至少会让人们质疑这些收入的品质。当您审视这些交易时，是否会区分已公布交易的类型？您最早在18个月前就提出过关于超大规模供应商信贷交易的问题。或许可以具体分析几种不同的交易类型。

Right? And I think that at a minimum calls the revenue, the quality of those revenues into question. So when you look at that, do you discriminate between the types of transactions that have been announced? I mean, you raised this question first eighteen months ago about the credit transactions that were occurring with the hyperscalers. So maybe just unpack a few of the different types of transactions.

是的。而且我认为这一切从一开始就开始了。我认为导致这种情况的原因之一是它已成为竞争格局和竞争动态的一部分。所以我认为许多董事会和首席财务官都处于这样的境地：如果我们不这样做，其他人都在做，我们可能会落后。但在我看来，它始于最初的微软与OpenAI交易，当时微软以信用额度作为实物投资。

Yeah. And look, I think it started at the very beginning. And and I think that's one of the things that's causing this is it's become part of the competitive landscape and the competitive dynamic. So I think there are many boards and many CFOs who have been put in a position where they say, well, if we don't do it, everyone else is doing it, you might fall behind. But it but it started with the original from my perspective, with the original Microsoft OpenAI deal where credits go in as a in kind investment.

然后这些信用额度被用于Azure和微软云服务。在这种情况下，我当时就说过，现在我再重申一遍：这是一笔无现金交易。虽然没有现金流动，但它却成为微软损益表上的收入项目。我认为从经济角度来看这并不理想。

And then those credits are used back against, you know, Azure and and Microsoft Cloud Services. And in the in that case, you know and I said it back then, I'll say it again now. That's a rev that's a cashless transaction. Like, there's no cash, but it becomes an income statement, revenue item for Microsoft. And I don't think that's ideal from an economic standpoint.

现在这种做法已经在亚马逊和谷歌出现。我认为他们也以类似方式投资了其他AI初创公司。至少，这推动了他们自身产品相对于竞争对手的使用。在最坏的情况下，如果没有这笔交易或至少不是以这些条款，这些收入可能根本不会产生。但不管怎样，这一切就是从那里开始的。

And that practice is now, I think, happened at Amazon and happened at Google. I think they've made investments in other AI startups with the same kind of thing. And at the very least, it drives usage of their product versus someone else. And in the worst case, you know, it creates revenue that might not have existed had had it not been for that deal or at least not on those terms. But, anyway, it started there.

现在竞争变得相当激烈。Plain Simple（应该是Plain English）播客有个有趣的讨论，这是Bill Simmons旗下的节目，由Paul Kudrowski主持。他提出的一个可信观点是：这些交易发生的部分原因是一些参与者已经投入了太多资本支出，背负了太多债务，以至于不想再迈出下一步。在这种情况下，公司会说：哎呀，我觉得再继续下去不太舒服。让我想到的一个交易是Meta同意为一个他们并不拥有债务的设施承担债务违约责任。

It's become quite competitive now. There's an interesting podcast on Plain Simple, which I I don't plain English, which is a a a in the Bill Simmons family with Paul Kudrowski. And he he makes the argument that part of the reason these transactions are taking place I think I think this is a credible argument he makes, is because some of these players have already put so much CapEx, so much debt on themselves that they don't wanna take the next step. And so in that case, you know, you have reached some level where the company's saying, oops, you know, I feel uncomfortable going further than this. The transaction that comes to my mind when I think of that is there was one where Microsoft I mean, Meta agreed to pay for the failure of debt on a facility where they don't own the debt.

你知道吗？在我看来，这就是典型的表外融资——虽然不拥有债权凭证，但他们承担了风险，我认为这其实没有本质区别。但正如我所说，这种情况正在很多不同领域发生。

You know? And to me, that's classic off balance sheet financing if they own the risk of it just because they don't own the paper, you know, it I don't see the difference really. But this is like I said, this is happening in a in a lot of different places.

比尔，你知道，我在All In播客和其他地方也讨论过这一点。以英伟达的交易为例：英伟达有机会投资但没有义务投资，OpenAI有机会使用他们的芯片但没有义务使用——今早他们刚宣布自研芯片，并与AMD达成巨额合作就是证明。而且英伟达并非高杠杆企业。

You know, one of the things that, you you know, again, I've I've talked about a little bit on All In and other places. I look at the NVIDIA deal as an example, Bill. NVIDIA has the opportunity to invest, though not the obligation to invest. OpenAI has the opportunity to use their chips, though not the obligation to use their chips as evidenced by the fact they just announced their own chip this morning, and they just cut up a huge deal with AMD. And, you know, in the case of NVIDIA, you're not talking about a highly levered business.

这家公司未来三年将产生4,500亿美元自由现金流，现在只是拿出其中一小部分投资于他们认为回报良好的公司。谷歌和谷歌风投多年来一直在这样做。所以在这些案例中，可以确定的是他们的产品消耗量可能比原本更多。上周我们看到公告，他们正在参与xAI的新一轮融资。

This is a company that's gonna generate $450,000,000,000 of free cash and is taking a small fraction of that over the next three years and investing in companies that it thinks are good returning investments. I mean, Google and Google Capital have been doing this for, you know, for years, etc. So again, I think in those cases, you can say for certain that maybe, you know, more of their product is being consumed than would have otherwise been consumed. Right? You know, we saw this announcement last week where they're investing in this x AI with respect to their new round.

我认为他们投资的这些公司中，大多数都有足够的经济实力从其他地方筹集资金。埃隆当然可以从其他地方筹集资金。OpenAI的融资已经超额认购，所以他们本可以从其他地方融资。但我觉得人们应该警惕的是这个。明白吗？

Most of these companies that they're investing in, I think, have the economic wherewithal to raise the capital in other places. Elon could certainly raise it in other places. OpenAI was well oversubscribed, so they could have raised it in other places. But here's what I think people should be on the lookout for. Okay?

那么我会更担心什么情况呢？好吧。想象一下有一种芯片只有一个客户。所以对这种芯片的需求不大。然后这家芯片制造商给客户100亿美元，而这个客户转身就购买了这种芯片。

So where would I have more concern? Okay. Now imagine there's a chip that there's only one customer for. So there's not a lot of demand for the chip. And that chip manufacturer gives a customer $10,000,000,000 and that customer turns around and buys that chip.

对吧？这样就没有其他潜在客户了，而且如果没有那笔资金，买家本来也没有能力购买。这在我看来是很大的危险信号。在这个整体生态系统中，我很高兴你提出这个问题，我认为我们需要做的一件事就是指出这些问题，以保持警惕，防止过度行为出现。作为英伟达的股东，我并不担心今天看到的英伟达的做法。

Right? So there's no other potential customers, and the buyer would not have had the ability to buy it but for that capital. That to me raises big red flags. And I do think in this overall ecosystem, the reason I'm happy you're bringing it up, I think one of the things we need to do to keep the wall of worry there, to keep the excesses from emerging, is to call them out. I'm not concerned as a shareholder in NVIDIA with what I'm seeing NVIDIA do today.

我喜欢他们在资产负债表上配置现金的方式。但我确实认为，当你沿着风险曲线越走越远，越来越偏向新兴云服务初创公司或芯片初创公司等领域时，正如你所说，那里的人们更迫切需要资金，没有强大的资产负债表，没有市场领导地位，在这个时刻看到更多这样的黄色警告标志出现，我一点都不会感到惊讶。

I like how they're deploying their cash on their balance sheet. But I do think that as you go further and further out the risk curve, right, further and further to the startup neo clouds or further and further to startup chips, you know, etcetera, where people, to your point, are a little bit more desperate for capital, don't have the balance sheets, don't have the market leadership position, I would not be surprised at all in this moment to see more of those yellow flags emerge.

我想回应几点。第一，我们知道很多这些事情是有原因的，那是因为某个地方的审计师让他们披露了这些信息。他们觉得这些情况异常到需要披露。第二，我听过你和All In团队讨论这个问题。我确实认为投资比客户贷款风险更高或更追求风险，这是与之相比的。

There's a couple of things, you know, that I would say in response. One, there's a reason we know about a lot of these things, and that's because some auditor somewhere made them disclose them. Like, they felt that it was abnormal enough to require disclosure. Second, I heard I listened to you and and the all in team talk about this issue. I I do think investment is riskier or more risk seeking than customer loans, which it was compared to.

思科仅仅因为客户贷款就遇到了麻烦，因为他们向那些确实没有能力偿还的初创公司提供贷款。但这对我来说真正的问题在于。当你从贷款转为股权投资时，你就不再需要偿还了。所以在某种程度上，这对购买者来说比他们自己获得贷款更容易。但这是我的底线。

And Cisco got in trouble just with the customer loans because they were giving loans to startups who really didn't have the wherewithal to pay them back. But when that's really the issue for me, though. When you switch from a loan to an equity, you no longer have to pay it back. So in some ways, it's it's easier on the purchaser than if you had a loan themselves. But but here's my here's my bottom line.

我认为这种情况，这个整体局势首先是目前由竞争驱动的。而且，迈入灰色地带的第一步早在最初就发生了。所以现在我认为我们已经深陷其中了。我认为这是一种竞争动态。我认为这增加了我们过度扩张、最终过度配置的可能性。

The I think what this does, this this overall situation is, first of all, I think it's driven by competition at this point. And, like, the first the first step into the gray zone was way back at the beginning. And so now I think we're we're fairly pregnant with it. So I think it's a competitive dynamic. I think it increases the chance that we go over the top, that that we end up over provisioning.

而且我总觉得那是不可避免的。但现在我认为风险更高了。而且我认为当我们发现这种情况发生时，它可能会推迟显现，因为你已经在整个系统中创造了更多的虚拟杠杆，并且可能掩盖了一些预示事情正在放缓的迹象。我给你举个很好的例子。在所有交易中比较奇特的一桩是，这在CoreWeave的备案文件中披露过，就是NVIDIA承诺购买CoreWeave无法卖给任何其他人的所有服务可用性。

And I I kinda felt like that was unavoidable anyway. But now I think it's higher. And but I think it maybe pushes out when we find out that happens because you've you've just created more virtual leverage on the whole system, and you might be hiding some of the signs that would tell you things are slowing down. I'll give you a great example. One of the more peculiar of all the deals is, and this was disclosed in a CoreWeave filing, was NVIDIA has promised to buy any of CoreWeave's service availability that they can't sell to anyone else.

这非常不寻常。这和进行投资不一样。这很容易帮助CoreWeave应对债权人并获得更多债务融资。但这也意味着作为投资者，我们不知道CoreWeave的真实需求情况如何，因为如果它们开始向NVIDIA转移需求，我们可能不会被告知。如果你问我，你会寻找什么迹象来判断我们是否已经达到了事情开始有点放缓的程度？

That is very unusual. That's not the same as making an investment. That could easily help CoreWeave with their debtors and and getting more debt financing. But it also means as a investor, we we don't know what's going on with real demand for CoreWeave because we probably won't be told if they start moving into the world where they're offloading to NVIDIA or not. And if you just said to me, what would you look for to see if we've, you know, kind of reached a point where things are slowing a little bit?

你会说，好吧，让我们看看其中一家纯业务公司。是的。所以现在情况变得模糊了。

You'd say, well, let's look at one of the pure plays. Yeah. And and so now that's muddy.

我能理解这种情况可能发生，但我预计接下来八个季度里，每个分析师的每次CoreWeave财报电话会议，可能都要感谢你刚刚提出的警示，都会问这个问题，对吧？你们看到任何放缓迹象吗？你们是否需要因此将部分需求转给NVIDIA？我的意思是，这也是我喜欢这一点的地方。对吧？

I can see how it it could be, but I I would expect that every analyst on every core we've called for the next, you know, eight quarters, maybe thanks to you you just raising the flag, is gonna be asking the question, Right? Do you see any slowing? Are you having to send any of your of your demand to NVIDIA, you know, as a result of this? I mean, one of the things I like about this as well. Right?

这些都是上市公司，CoreWeave和NVIDIA都是。这是一笔披露的交易。不像这些事情在暗地里进行。人们可以就需求问题提出疑问。而且我要告诉你，有大量资金正在被用于追踪从台湾到美国的这条供应链的每一个环节。

These are public companies, both CoreWeave and NVIDIA. It is a disclosed transaction. It's not like this stuff's occurring in the dark at night. People can ask the questions of this, you know, this with regard to demand. And I will tell you, there is the the amount of money that is being spent to track every single part of this supply chain from Taiwan to The United States.

我的意思是，看看Dylan Patel的半分析业务。这个东西已经爆炸性增长。人们花费大量资金只是为了跟上形势，一旦他们看到任何暗示需求泄漏的迹象，砰，文件就掉下来了，警告就出现了。所以我认为这是个好观点。但我，是的。

I mean, look at Dylan Patel's business at semi analysis. The thing has exploded. The amount of money people are spending just to stay on top of this, and the second they see something that smacks of any, you know, leakage and demand, boom, docs fall and and and and warnings go up. So I think it's a good point. But I yeah.

让我转换一下话题，因为我确实想讨论这个需求问题。一方面，有关于收入质量的问题。另一方面的问题是，我们是否建设过度？让我们再次展示这张图表。这基本上是在未来五年预计的3万亿美元建设支出。

Let me transition because I I do wanna talk about this question of demand. So on the one hand, there's this question about quality of revenues. On the other question is, are we overbuilding? So let's show this chart again. This is basically the $3,000,000,000,000 of build out expected over the next five years.

这是我们之前展示过的资本支出图表。比尔，从这个角度看，大约是60吉瓦，对吧？因为我们现在把所有东西都标准化为数据中心的吉瓦级别。所以大约是60吉瓦。

This is the CapEx chart that we've shown here before. To put that in perspective, Bill, that's about 60 gigs. Right? Because we we now are normalizing everything's to gigawatts of data center. So that's about 60 gigs.

这并不全是增量。其中很多是替换或升级。请记住这一点。第二张是英伟达的收入图表。这是英伟达卖方预测。

It's not all incremental. A lot of that is is is replacement or upgrade. Keep that in mind. The second is this chart of NVIDIA revenues. This is the NVIDIA sell side forecast.

明白吗？今年的预测收入约为2000亿美元，未来五年内增长到约3500亿美元。所以今年这意味着他们销售的计算能力价值约4到5吉瓦。再次强调，大部分是增量，但并非全部。到2029年或2030年，这将增长到9吉瓦的计算能力，9吉瓦。

Okay? Forecast this year is for about 200,000,000,000 in revenues, growing to about 350,000,000,000 in revenues over the next five years. So this year that means that they're selling about four to five gigs worth of compute. And again, most of that's incremental, but it's not all incremental. And that would grow to nine gigs of compute, nine, in 2029, 02/1930.

所以那是3500亿或4000亿美元。这是英伟达的共识收入预测，对吧？我在播客中问过黄仁勋这个问题，我说，在未来四五年内，出现供应过剩的可能性有多大？我们会播放那段内容，但他基本上说未来两到三年内可能性为零，因为所有建设都将由世界上资产负债表最大的超大规模公司承担，他们建设是为了运营核心业务。我们甚至还没有完全涉及这些新的生成式AI工作负载。

So that's $3.50 or 400,000,000,000. That's the NVIDIA consensus revenue forecast, right? And I asked Jensen on the pod about this, and I said, what is the chance that we get into a glut over the course of, you know, the next four or five years? And we'll play the the, you know, the piece, but he basically said there's zero chance over the next two to three years because all the build out will go to the biggest hyperscalers with the biggest balance sheets in the world, and they're building it to to run their core businesses. We haven't even got into the full amount with respect to these new generative AI workloads.

你认为在未来三、四或五年内出现供应过剩的概率百分比是多少？在我们完全将所有通用计算转换为加速计算和AI之前，我认为可能性极低。好的。所以我有个问题问你。过去几周你有没有听到什么让你相信我们正处于某个泡沫破裂的边缘，或者我们过度建设了，或者其他什么？

What is the percentage probability that you think will have a glut, will run into a glut in the next three or four or five years? Until we fully convert all general purpose computing to accelerated computing and AI, until we do that, I think the chances are extremely low. Okay. So here's a question I have for you. Did you hear anything in the last couple of weeks that caused you to believe that we're on the verge of some bubble bursting or we're greatly overbuilding or or or anything else?

还是只是旗帜已经升起，现在需要观望？

Or is it just the flags are up and now it's a wait and see?

是的。有趣的是今天早上CNBC请了霍华德·马克斯。我是霍华德·马克斯的超级粉丝，他们问了他这个问题。他说，看。倍数太低，不足以让你进入泡沫观察名单，如果倍数不够高，你就不可能处于泡沫观察中，而且你长期以来一直在强调这一点。

Yeah. So it's funny they had Howard Marks on CNBC this morning. I'm a huge Howard Marks fan, and they asked him this question. And he he said, look. Multiples are too low to for this to be you you can't be on Bubble Watch if the multiples aren't high enough, and you've been making this point for a long time.

而且我想说，除非是傻瓜才会注意不到你提到的这些数字是我们前所未见的，简直史无前例。它们规模巨大。你知道，我之前谈到过，看到'七大巨头'从巨额现金生产者转变为将大部分自由现金流和资本支出投入其中。这完全是全新的现象。显然大家都相信这波浪潮可能比之前创造巨大价值的几波浪潮规模更大。

And I would say, like, you'd have to be a fool not to notice that these numbers you're talking about are so remarkably unprecedented from anything we've ever seen before. They are massive. You know, I I've talked about, you know, to see the Mag seven go from being massive cash producers to where they're many of them are taking the majority of their free cash flow and CapEx. It's it's it's totally new. And clearly everyone believes that this wave is maybe bigger than the previous waves we've seen that have led to so much value creation.

所以这一切正在发生。我愿意相信，承认市场表现优异的同时认为这些交易不该以这种方式进行是可以并存的。我能够同时将这两种想法放在脑子里。

So all that's happening. I like to believe that it's okay to recognize that the market's great and still think that these transactions shouldn't happen this way. And I'm I'm able to keep both those things in my head at the same time.

我...我觉得这个观点非常合理。顺便说一句，你刚提到这个，我们会展示这张图表。这是'五大巨头'资本支出占运营自由现金流的比例。如果看2025年，也就是今年，他们会将约66%的运营现金流用于资本支出。

I I I think I I think it's a super fair point. By the way, you just mentioned it, so we'll include this chart. This is Mag five CapEx as a percentage of their operating free cash flow bill. And if you look at it in 2025, so that's this year, they'll spend about 66% of their operating cash flow on CapEx.

没错。

Yep.

对吧？如果看他们资本支出相对于运营现金流的共识预测，66%就是峰值。之后会逐渐下降到45%或50%左右。这里隐含的前提是他们每年将继续以15%到20%的速度增长运营自由现金流。对吗？

Right? And if you look at the the the consensus forecast for their CapEx relative to their operating cash flow, this is the peak. Around 66%, it has it going down to about 45 or 50%. Now embedded in there is they're gonna keep growing their operating free cash flow at 15 to 20% a year. Right?

所以即使比例下降，他们仍有增长空间。但我觉得这是另一个需要关注的要点：他们到底投入了多少？顺便给你个数量级概念，Bill。2023年他们的总资本支出是1560亿美元，而今年是3790亿美元。

So there's still room for them to to grow with that coming down. But I think that is another thing to keep your eye on. How much are they spending? And by the way, just give you an order of magnitude, Bill. In 2023, their total CapEx was 156,000,000,000, and this year, it's 379,000,000,000.

对吧？所以你提到的激增确实存在。还记得几年前2022年，当Meta增加对Reality Labs的资本支出时，股价暴跌，因为人们都说：你们到底在干什么？这完全关乎每股自由现金流——包括我在内也这么说过。我当时就说：让我们保持理智吧。

Right? So radical step up in in your point's a good one. And just remember a couple years ago in 2022, when Meta stepped up their CapEx spending on Reality Labs, the stock got obliterated because people said, what the hell are you doing? This is all about free cash flow per share per share, including myself. And I was saying, you know, let's get fit here.

我们要从业务中挤出更多自由现金流。你知道吗，多到首席财务官给我寄了一顶写着'自由现金流'的帽子。对吧？所以他们开始认真对待自由现金流了，但将这笔钱投资于数据中心和人工智能，与投资于Reality Labs是有区别的。作为投资者，让我分享一下我的个人观点。

Let's drive more free cash flow out of the business. You know, so much so that the CFO sent me a hat that says free cash flow. Right? So they got real about free cash flow, but there's a difference between investing that free cash flow in data centers and AI than there was in Reality Labs. As an investor, let me just tell you my own perspective.

尽管资本支出重新回到高水平，Meta股票表现依然出色的原因在于，现在投资者理解并相信这一策略。我们在业务盈利中看到了好处，对吧？他们正在提升业务盈利。他们不需要大量招聘新员工。因此，这与投入Reality Labs的资本支出有根本不同，当时投资者都在说：等等，我们未来五年要花费超过1000亿美元。

The reason Meta stock's doing great, notwithstanding going back to high levels of CapEx spend, is because now the investors understand it and believe in it. We're seeing the benefits, right, in the earnings of the business. They're growing the earnings of the business. They don't have to hire a lot of new employees. And so it's fundamentally different than the CapEx that was going into Reality Labs, where investors were saying, Hold on a second, we're gonna spend 100 plus billion dollars over the next five years.

我们甚至不知道自己在建造什么，对吧？我们不知道最终会有什么价值。所以我认为至少目前，人们对生成式AI的副产品有足够的信心，因为人们在使用ChatGPT，他们在企业中看到了实用性，因此愿意容忍这些公司将过半自由现金流投入这些建设项目。

We don't even know what we're building, right? We don't know what it will be worth at the end of the day. So I think for now at least, there's enough belief in the byproduct of generative AI because people are using ChatGPT, they're seeing the utility in the enterprise that they're willing to tolerate these companies giving over half of their free cash flow into these build outs.

我确实认为另一个动态是竞争格局创造的竞赛条件。从我看来——你不需要评论，因为你是投资者可能掌握比我更多的信息，很可能确实如此——但在我看来，OpenAI通过这些合作和公告，正试图创造逃逸速度。这可能是针对模型供应商的，也可能是针对托管服务商的，取决于你对市场发展的判断。

I do think another dynamic is the race condition created by the competitive dynamic. And it appears from where I sit, and you don't need to comment because you're an investor and and maybe have more information than I do, probably have more information than I do. But it appears to me that OpenAI, through all these partnerships and announcements, is trying to create escape velocity, you know. And that could be against the model providers. It could be against a hosting provider depending on how you think the market plays out.

可能发生在消费者端，也可能发生在API端。但这会给生态系统中其他所有参与者带来一场有趣的压力测试：你们要不要跟进？因为你列出的所有数字都非常庞大。这会很有意思。

It could could be on the consumer side. It could be on the API side. But it'll it it creates an interesting stress test for anyone else in the ecosystem to say, are you gonna lay chase? Because of all the numbers you laid out there, they're they're gargantuan. And it'll be interesting.

这是我的看法。感觉就像他们在挑衅别人跟随他们，而我怀疑很多人不会跟进。这可能会成功。

That's my opinion. It just feels like they're they're daring people to to follow them, and and I suspect a bunch don't. It may work.

嗯，这种情况你以前见过。我知道，我们在这里讨论过很多次。这就是当初优步和Lyft的情况。归根结底，我认为有几点需要记住。

Well, it's you've seen this before. I know. We've talked about many times on here. This was and Lyft. Ultimately, I think a couple things to remember.

这些公告是框架性的。它们让人们开始工作，但不是板上钉钉的。这些不是合同义务。你知道，每个人都必须完成自己的部分。如果需求降低，那么这些人就不会，至少

These these announcements are frameworks. It it allows people to begin working, but they're not etched in stone. These are not contractual obligations. You know, everybody's gotta deliver their parts. If the demand comes in lower, then these people are not going you know, least

Oracle的那个难道不需要是合同性质的才能算RPO吗？是的。你知道，你可能更了解

Doesn't the Oracle one have to be contractual for it to be RPO? Yeah. You know, I you may know more

我不该说它们都是框架，但我知道，比如AMD的情况，他们必须交付一个可用的芯片，否则你就不会建造价值六吉格（gigs）的设施，对吧？在这个博通的公告中，显然他们必须建造一个可用的芯片。所以我认为你的推测，再次说明，对我来说是合理的。如果你问，提前锁定所有这些交易有什么优势？

than I shouldn't say that they're all right frameworks, but I I know, for example, like, the case of AMD, they're gonna have to deliver a workable chip or you're not gonna build six gigs worth. Right? In the case of this Broadcom announcement, obviously, they have to build a workable chip. So I think your speculation and, again, it makes sense to me. If you said, what are the advantages of getting out there and locking up all of these deals?

对吧？我无法想象这对招聘没有很大帮助。世界上最好的研究人员都想在有最多计算资源的地方工作，所以你想锁定计算资源。我必须想象这对供应链有帮助，因为，你知道，现在你正在锁定那个供应。所以我认为你的推测是一个相当重要、相当好的观点。

Right? I I can't imagine it it it doesn't help a lot with recruiting. All the best researchers in the world wanna work at the place that has the most compute, and so you wanna lock up the compute. I I I have to imagine it helps with the supply chain because, you know, now you're you're locking up that supply. So I think your speculation is a pretty big one, a pretty good one.

但归根结底，如果你把这些交易加起来，我尝试过这样做，我们可能有点偏差，我鼓励有更好估计的人告诉我。但如果你把它们全部加起来，在我看来OpenAI似乎要承担约150,000,000,000美元的资本支出在2030年。对吧？所以问题是，比尔，他们在2030年需要多少收入来证明150,000,000,000美元的资本支出是合理的？嗯，我认为你至少需要150,000,000,000美元的收入。

But at the end of the day, if you add up all these deals, I tried to do this, and we may be may be off by a bit, and I'd encourage people who have a better estimate to let me know. But if you add them all up, it looks like to me OpenAI would be on the hook for, like, 150,000,000,000 of CapEx in 02/1930. Okay? And so, like, the question is, Bill, how much revenue do they need in 2030 to justify $150,000,000,000 in capex? Well, I think you would need at least $150,000,000,000 of revenue.

对吧？你知道，至少。我们刚刚讨论了Meta和这些公司将66%用于资本支出，但如果他们有150,000,000,000美元的收入，那么问题是，他们在2030年有可能拥有150,000,000,000美元的收入吗？作为投资者，我会认为这不仅仅是可能，他们完全可以有150,000,000,000美元的收入，但我认为这让除了超大规模云提供商之外的任何人都非常非常困难。显然，谷歌会在那里。

Right? And, you know, like at a minimum. We just talked about Meta and these companies spending 66% on CapEx, but if they had 150,000,000,000 of revenue, then the question is, is it plausible they could have $150,000,000,000 of revenue in 02/1930? And I would argue as an investor that it's it's more than more than plausible that they could have 150,000,000,000 in revenue, but I think it makes it very, very difficult for anybody else other than the hyperscalers. Obviously, Google's going to be there.

显然，Meta会在那里。显然，亚马逊，你知道，也可以在那里，但这让生态系统中的任何其他人都非常非常困难，对吧，那些认为这是一场规模计算竞争游戏的人。所以我认为你的观点很好。也许好吧。也许稍微转换一下话题，你知道，你我都很热衷的领域，就是这个AI监管。

Obviously, Meta's gonna be there. Obviously, Amazon, you know, can be there, but it makes it very, very difficult for anybody else in the ecosystem, right, who believes this is a game of of scale compute compete. So I think your point's a good one. Maybe Alright. Maybe shift a little bit, you know, the area of passion for both you and I, which is this AI regulation.

我们在播客中多次讨论过这些新兴州法规令人担忧的拼凑局面——它们打着做好事的幌子，或许初衷良好，但充其量只会造成更多混乱，最糟的是会拖累我们领先的前沿实验室，真正阻碍我们在全球AI竞赛中保持领先地位。如今这种情况已从理论层面变得更具危害性。我上周末特别发推谈及科罗拉多州AI法案，该法案现已通过并签署成为法律，它通过界定12个受保护类别来定义所谓的算法歧视。

We've talked on the pod many times about the concerning patchwork of these emerging state regulations that under the guise of doing good, and maybe they're even well intentioned, cause a hell of a lot more confusion at best. And at worst, they set back our leading frontier labs, you know, and and really hamper us in the race to to stay in the in the lead in global AI. Well, it's gone from more theoretical to now more problematic. I tweeted over the weekend in particular about this Colorado AI Act, which is now passed into law, signed into law. It defines something called algorithmic discrimination by outlining these 12 protected classes.

当然包括年龄、肤色、宗教，还包括英语能力有限、生殖健康等类别。法案基本上规定：如果算法提供的信息（比如聊天机器人提供的资讯）被用于歧视，那么前沿模型层面就要承担法律责任。今早加文·纽森还签署了SB-243法案，强制要求AI聊天伴侣遵守安全协议，并赋予消费者私人诉讼权，可就聊天机器人造成的任何情感伤害起诉这些公司——说真的，这绝非玩笑。

Of course, age, color, religion, but also limited proficiency in English language, reproductive health. And basically said if the algo provides info, right, if the chatbot provides information that's used to discriminate, then there's liability back at the frontier model level. Right? And just this morning, Gavin Newsom signed SB two forty three, which mandates safety protocols for AI chatbot companions and gives any consumer a private right of action to sue these companies for any emotional harm that comes out of a chatbot. I mean, I shit you not.

简直匪夷所思。您曾说过中国能与美国竞争是因为由工程师主导，而美国由律师主导，这是我们最大的风险。请谈谈联邦优先立法的必要性，并再深入聊聊您对刚通过这两项法律的担忧。

You can't make this stuff up. You said recently that China is so competitive with The United States because it's run by engineers and America's run by lawyers, and that's the greatest risk we have. Talk to us about the need for federal preemption. And, you know, again, just let's dive back into your concern about these two laws that were just passed.

顺便说一句，我刚读完乔纳森·海特的《焦虑的一代》，书中谈到他认为互联网生态中某些应用造成的社会危害。我认为许多州立法热情正源于此——当地议员觉得本应在社交媒体监管上更主动，所以想抢先行动。但这种逐州监管新技术的风险极大。

As an aside, I just consumed Jonathan Haidt's book, Anxious Generation, where he talks about what he believes is social harms caused by some of the apps on the Internet ecosystem. And I do think a lot of the passion for writing some of these states laws comes from that place. Like, are local congressmen that that feel like they should have been out in front of social media more, and so they wanna get a jump on this. And and and I I think some of that comes from there. You run this massive risk of of trying to regulate a brand new technology at a state by state level.

而且关于政策我常说：政策初衷与实施效果往往南辕北辙。人们可能怀着良好意图，但这又回到我在All In峰会上谈到的监管俘获问题——最终结果可能完全背离初衷，只因立法者对监管细则认知不足。

And, you know, you could ask yourself, you know and and and by the way, I I I've said this a lot about policy. The intent of the policy is different from what happens once the policy is implemented. And so people can come in with great intentions. And this goes back to my speech at All In on regulatory capture. And you can end up with the exact opposite outcome of what you intended because you just don't know enough about the way you write the regulation.

当前普遍认为我们正处于全球AI技术栈竞争时代。如果我们实施50个不同的州级规则迫使企业遵守，而国际竞争对手却无需应对这些，这必然会给美国参与者制造泥潭、拖慢步伐——这是毋庸置疑的。我确信立法者未意识到其行为可能引发的全球性后果，但这确实有害。记得奥巴马曾兴奋于取消州际对发型师等行业的不同许可要求，因为各州法律不统一实在荒谬。

Right now, a lot of people believe we're in this global competition to to see, you know, whose tech stack for AI is used on a global basis. And if we implement 50 different state rules that these companies have to jump through and companies that are that are competitors that are competing in the broader world don't have any of them, there is zero chance that it's not gonna create mud and slow down The US players. There's just zero chance. And I'm certain the people that are writing these laws don't understand that there might be some global, you know, consequence of what they're doing, But but it's bad. I mean, I can remember when Obama was excited about removing some of the state by state requirements on, like, hairstylist and whatnot because it makes it such that they can't move between states, and it's kinda ridiculous that they would have different laws and different licenses.

如果说那是问题，现在这就是大问题。从全球竞争力角度，我衷心希望联邦能统筹立法并优先适用。不知是否为时已晚，也不清楚国会需要如何推动，但我认为这既不利于美国，也不利于广义的创新进程。

This is like, if that's a problem, this is really a problem. And so I you know, from a global competitiveness standpoint, I would certainly hope that that they're able to federalize this and preempt it. I don't know if it's there's too much, you know, water under the bridge or not. I don't know enough about what it takes in congress to make that happen. But I think this is bad for I think it's bad for The US, and I think it's bad for innovation broadly.

这将使初创企业更难做事，因为他们必须担心所有这些事情。

It's gonna make it harder for startups to do things just because they're gonna have to worry about all this stuff.

是的。对小科技公司来说更糟，对吧？因为小公司没有大批律师团队。他们可以，你知道，出去遵守。

Yeah. It's way worse for little tech. Right? Because smaller companies don't have phalanxes of lawyers. They can, you know, go out and comply.

你知道，我认为另一点是，听着，我们已经有了《民权法案》，我们有《公平住房法案》，我们有《美国残疾人法案》。当然，我们不想要歧视，但这看起来像是广泛的越权。这不像，我甚至不知道如何遵守或执行，所以最终只会让整个系统陷入不确定性和诉讼的泥潭。而且，再次强调，重要的是要说这甚至不是关于AI是否应该被监管的问题。这只是谁应该监管的问题。

You know, I think the other thing is, listen, we already have the Civil Rights Act, we have the Fair Housing Act, we have the Americans with Disabilities Act. Of course, we don't want discrimination, but this just seems like broad overreach. It's no like, I don't even know how you comply or enforce, And so it just ends up bogging down the entire system in uncertainty and litigation. And, again, it's important to say this isn't even about whether or not AI should be regulated. It's just a question of who should regulate it.

我们说的是，你知道，本届政府和国会有充分的机会聚在一起，在需要的情况下撰写立法，对吧，以提供一个全国性的。这些本质上是跨州的技术。没有办法将其限制在单个州内。所以制定一项国家立法，让我们能够继续快速前进，同时解决任何这些担忧。坦率地说，我认为我们需要暂停所有州法律，推迟所有州法律，直到联邦政府有时间采取行动。

What we're saying is that, you know, there is ample opportunity for this administration and Congress to get together and write legislation to the extent it needs to be written, right, to provide a national. These are inherently interstate technologies. There's no way to keep it in a single state. And so write a piece of national legislation that allows us to continue moving forward very quickly, but at the same time addresses any of these concerns. I frankly think we need a moratorium on all state laws, postpone all state laws until the federal government has time to act.

而如果各州要通过这些法律，比尔，那么我想知道OpenAI或其他公司是否应该考虑封锁这些州的公民，直到在国家层面解决。需要有人让这些州注意到，他们不能在各州层面上这样做。这对公司不利。对国家不利。但希望我们能很快看到国会采取行动。

And if states are going to pass these laws, Bill, then I wonder whether or not OpenAI or some other company should consider blocking the citizens of those states until it's resolved at the national level. Somebody needs to get the attention of these states that they can't do this on a state by state level. It's bad for the companies. It's bad for the country. But, hopefully, we'll get action out of congress soon.

我认为势头很好。我们几乎已经将其作为，我认为，是的，那个大而美丽的法案的一部分通过了。所以我认为有很多行动正在进行中以实现它。我想强调这一点，因为我认为这是新国会面临的高优先级问题之一。所有这些AI全天候的东西，比尔，你ping了我，你说，嘿，想谈谈稳定币。

I think there's good momentum. We almost had it passed as part of the, I think, the Yeah. Big beautiful And so I think there's a lot of movement afoot in order to do it. I wanted to highlight it because I think it's one of the high priority issues facing the new congress. All this AI all the time stuff, Bill, and you pinged me and you said, hey, want to talk about stablecoin.

对吧？是的。我们在世界上有这种并行的发展。所以我认为如果我们世界上有三大趋势，AI显然是最大的超级周期，美国的再工业化是巨大的，所有这些关键供应链。我会说第三个是金融的数字化和代币化。

Right? Yeah. We have this parallel development in the world. So I think if we have three major trends in the world, AI is clearly the largest super cycle going on, The reindustrialization of America is massive, all these critical supply chains. And I would say the third one is kind of the digitization and tokenization of finance.

这是因为政府基本上与拜登政府之前的立场发生了180度大转弯，当时是完全支持加密货币和两党《天才法案》的。所以，我来给你提供一些数据和事实，然后交给你来继续。目前稳定币总供应量已超过3000亿美元，而2021年时基本为零。

It's going on as a result of the administration basically turning a 180 degrees from where the Biden administration was, total support of crypto, and the Bipartisan Genius Act. So here are a couple facts and figures, you know, to throw your way, and then I'll let you take it over. Total stablecoin supply is now over $300,000,000,000, up from basically zero in 2021.

而且这是按美元一对一背书的稳定币

And this is dollar for dollar backed stablecoin

没错。

Correct.

遵循新政策。是的。

Adhering to the new policy. Yep.

总结算量现已超过18万亿美元。每月稳定币发送者数量接近3000万，Circle和Tether每月发行150亿美元的稳定币，并成为美国国债的最大买家。

And total settled is now over 18,000,000,000,000. Monthly stablecoin senders is now close to 30,000,000, and Circle and Tether are issuing 15,000,000,000 of stable per month and becoming the largest buyers of US treasury.

他们增加了多少资金池来支持这些稳定币。是的。

How much they're increasing the pool of capital they hold to to back up the the stablecoin. Yes.

正确。我会展示这个Visa仪表盘，它对于追踪所有这些活动非常酷。当然，Stripe在收购Bridge之后已全力投入稳定币领域，他们刚刚推出了新的稳定币发行工具，并与OpenAI合作扩展至AI商务，这可能对稳定币产生影响。

Correct. And I will show this Visa dashboard. You know, it's really cool for tracking all of this activity. Of course, Stripe, after the purchase of Bridge, has gone all in on stable. They just unveiled this new stablecoin issuance tools and expanded into AI commerce with OpenAI that could have some stable implications.

那么你的蜘蛛感应告诉你，对于我认为是戏剧性变革及其未来走向的后果有何看法？

So what are your spidey senses telling you about the consequences of what I think is a dramatic change and where we're headed?

嗯，有一点，我认为许多收听播客的人可能会说，哦，看Girly跳上了加密货币的列车，因为我一直不是多头。所以对他们来说，你知道，值得称赞，认为你搞对了。我没想到你的政策会有如此戏剧性的转变。这可能是我们在金融政策中见过的最大的转变之一。而且坦率地说，我一直觉得——我认为这一点仍在发展中——美国的金融在位者非常擅长监管俘获，防止自己被颠覆，这也是我一直感到惊讶的部分原因。

Well, one thing, I I think that that many people who listen to the podcast might say, oh, look at Girly jumping on the crypto train because I have not been a bull. And so to to them, you know, kudos, think you know, for getting it right. I had no idea you would have this dramatic a shift in policy. It's probably one of the biggest shifts we've ever seen in in financial policy. And and quite frankly, I've always felt like and this, I think, is still to play out that the financial incumbents in The US are really good at regulatory capture and preventing themselves from getting disrupted, which is part of why I've been surprised.

真正引起我注意、让我关注这件事的是，特朗普政府曾批评巴西PIX系统的成功，这看起来似乎很遥远。我以前讨论过PIX。PIX是巴西政府提供的一种即时清算的银行间数字产品，五年前还不存在，现在非常成功。是的，它是模仿英国17年前建立的相同项目——我们讨论过的英国快速支付系统（UK Faster Payments）。

Something that really raised my eye that made me pay attention to this, which seems far away, there was a a a move by the Trump administration to criticize Brazil for the success of PIX. And I've talked about PIX in the past. PIX is a digital clears immediately interbanking product offered by the Brazilian government that didn't exist five years ago and is wildly successful. Yeah. It was mirrored after the same programs that was built in The UK seventeen years ago called UK Faster Payments that we've talked about.

这些项目在中国和印度也存在。但由于监管俘获，美国从未发生过这样的事情。你们的ACH结算需要三天时间。国内电汇费用为25美元，国际电汇50美元，而且你必须填写一页又一页的表格。没错，有时还需要口头确认。

And these programs exist in China and India as well. And because of the regulatory capture, none of this has ever happened in The US. Your ACH takes three days to settle. Your wire costs $25 for domestic, $50 for international, and you have to fill out pages and pages of Exactly. Sometimes get a verbal.

而且，你知道，我们实在太落后了。我要冒昧地说，我希望在特朗普政府中推动这件事的人是某个陷入监管俘获位置、受到游说的人。我认为如果特朗普政府研究过这个，他们不应该批评PIX，而应该羡慕它。我们早就应该通过Fed Now实现这一点。

And it and it and it and it's you know, we are so behind. I am gonna go out on a limb and say, I hope someone whoever agitated this to happen in the Trump administration is someone who is kinda caught in a regulatory capture position getting lobbied by somebody. I I think if the Trump administration studied this, they shouldn't be critical of picks. They should be envious of it. We should have done this a long time ago with Fed now.

但稳定币可能即将能够做到这一点。正如你谈到的，这些交易通道上有大量交易。我们有一个有趣的情况：Coinbase和Circle达成了协议，Coinbase将允许你从稳定币余额中获得4%的收益。要知道，在其他银行，哪怕是新银行，要获得这种回报，你必须将直接存款存入那里。而在这里，无论是10美元还是100万美元，你只需将稳定币存入Coinbase，就可以开始每日赚取4%的收益。除此之外，这又回到了PIX的事情上，你可以立即从该账户进行交易。

But we may be on the verge of Stablecoin just being able to do this anyway. And the rails have tons of transaction on them, as you've talked about. We have this interesting situation where Coinbase and Circle have done this deal where Coinbase will allow you to earn 4% on your stablecoin balance, which, you know, to to get that kind of return at another bank, even a neobank, you have to have your direct deposit go there. Here, whether it's $10 or or a million bucks, you know, you put it in stable coin with Coinbase and you start earning 4% daily. And on top of that, and this gets back to the picks thing, you can transact immediately out of that account.

所以你不必像ACH那样将资金从储蓄账户转到支票账户才能使用。你可以立即在微秒内发送稳定币，只需花费几美分。交易通道已经存在，它们准备好了，并且正在运行。我认为用户界面有点困难，但没有理由不会变得更好、更快。

So you don't have to like move it from your savings to your checking to get it to do ACH. Like you can send stablecoin immediately in microseconds, and it'll cost you a few pennies. It is the rails are there. They're ready, and it's working. And I think the UI is a little difficult, but there's no reason why that won't get better and faster.

于是我抬头一看，你知道吗，我只是在想Meta团队可能会怎么想，他们可能正懊悔不已。他们花了那么多钱在那个项目上，所有他们想在WhatsApp上实现的功能，他们应该赶紧重新投入才对。我不知道这是否重要。

And so I look up, you know, and I I'm just I wonder what the team at Meta like, they might just be kicking themselves. Like, with all the money they spent on that coin, everything they wanted to do on WhatsApp, like, they should be running back at it. Like, I don't know if it matters.

所以也许他们应该，你知道，记得那个负责Libra网络的人David Marcus，他已经创办了Lightning Network。现在它是一家初创公司。也许Meta应该去收购，你知道，应该收购Lightning并把David请回公司，因为他们之前讨论的所有事情现在正在发生，Bill。让我告诉你，我觉得你抓住了重点。但我们仍然面临的挑战之一是，我认为首先任何看到我们当前系统的人都知道它远远落后于世界其他地区。

So maybe they should you know, remember the guy who did the the Libra network, David Marcus, has started the Lightning Network. Now it's a startup. Maybe maybe Meta should go buy, you know, should go buy Lightning and bring David back in house because, you know, all the things they talked about all the things they talked about are now what's happening, Bill. And let me tell you what I think you're onto something big here. But one of the challenges we still have, I think first anybody who looks at our current system, right, knows that it's dreadfully behind the rest of the world.

对吧？我们知道这是监管俘获的结果，不仅是我们发行方，还有银行和其他所有从现状中受益的人。但如果你看看今天的Visa和Mastercard，我认为它们每秒处理约5万笔交易。我咨询了我们的好朋友Vinny Lingam，他说，你知道，现在Solana和ETH都还不到每秒4000笔交易。所以他们正在努力提出解决方案，让支付轨道具备真正成为消费产品所需的功能吞吐量和高效结算能力。

Right? And we know it's the result of regulatory capture by not only our issuers, but the banks and everybody else who who likes the who benefit from the status quo. But if you look at Visa and Mastercard today, I think that they're doing something like 50,000 transactions per second. And I checked with our good buddy, Vinny Lingam, and he said, you know, on on both Solana and ETH today, they're still under 4,000 transactions per second. So they're trying to come up with these solutions to actually make the rails have the functional throughput and efficient settlement required to really become a consumer product.

但我觉得你说中了另一个重点，你知道，Patrick Collison有一条关于此的推文我回复了，就是说，当《天才法案》通过时，银行进行了大量游说，阻止加密公司为稳定币支付利息。所以达成的妥协是它们可以支付奖励，而不是利息。但实际表现方式是，因为Coinbase不是发行方，Circle才是发行方，他们达成了这个协议。所以Coinbase把它宣传得像是利息一样。

But I think you nailed the other one that, you know, Patrick Collison had a tweet on this that I replied to, which is, you know, when Genius Act was passed, there was massive lobbying by the banks to prevent the crypto companies from paying interest on stablecoins. So the settlement was that they could pay rewards, not interest. Okay? And but what the way in which it's manifested itself, because Coinbase is not the issuer, Circle is the issuer, and they did this deal. So Coinbase is promoting it as though it was interest.

所以从消费者角度来看，奖励和利息，如果是4%，是无法区分的。

So from a consumer perspective, a reward and interest, if it's 4%, is indistinguishable.

毫无疑问。

No doubt.

对吧？所以我存了我的钱

Right? So I put my money

而且，显然，Coinbase的布莱恩·阿姆斯特朗一直在X平台上争论他的立场。所以他显然要么正在遭遇监管方面的反对，要么预期会有反对。当我看到，无论是Visa还是纳斯达克，还是任何这些人试图涉足代币化时，我总是担心，因为如果你回顾历史，比如借记卡与信用卡的对比，它本应是颠覆性的。它本应是一种改变现状的替代方案，但他们只是介入其中，扼杀它，稍微搅和一下，然后它就不再那么具有颠覆性了。这是他们的惯用伎俩。

And and, obviously, Brian's been out on Brian Armstrong of Coinbase has been out on x, like, arguing his side of the argument. So he's clearly he's either getting opposition or expecting opposition on the regulatory front. And when I see, you know, whether, you know, whether it's Visa or NASDAQ or any of these people kinda run at the tokenization, I always worry, like because if you look at the history of, like, the debit card versus the credit card, it was supposed to be disruptive. It was supposed to be an alternative that would change things, but they just they just run at it and strangle it and mix it up a little bit, and then it's not as disruptive as it was. That's their go to move.

但是，当我再次读到关于Pix的这件事时，比如，我要大声读出来。作为其对巴西的激进经济和政治运动的一部分，正在调查Pix，指控该支付系统不公平地削弱了像Visa和苹果这样的美国金融和科技公司。我的意思是，这是我听过的最荒谬的事情。削弱Visa？他们难道不知道Visa和万事达卡拥有美国商业史上最高的两家运营收入吗？

But, you know, when I read this thing on picks again, like, I'm gonna read this out loud. As part of its aggressive economic and political campaign against Brazil is investigating picks, accusing the payment system of unfairly utter undercutting US financial and technology companies like Visa and Apple. I mean, that's the most absurd thing I've ever heard. Undercutting Visa? Like, do do they realize they have Visa and Mastercard have, like, the top two operating incomes in the history of American business?

就像，没有人比这些人更需要保护了。如果有的话，应该是一个投资案例。

Like like, there's there's no one that needs less protection than these guys. If anything, there should be an investment case.

在白宫的晚宴上？

At the dinner at the White House?

那个小团体。我不知道。我只是觉得这太奇怪了。我如此兴奋地看到这种颠覆。我认为可能发生的事情非常有趣。

The cabal. I don't know. I I just like it's it's so bizarre to me. I'm so thrilled to to see this kind of disruption. I think that it's super interesting what's possible.

我怀疑所有大公司都应该关注这一点。苹果、谷歌、亚马逊，任何可能拥有支付底层设施的公司。

I suspect all of the big guys should be paying attention to this. Apple, Google, Amazon, anybody that might have payment under rails.

我冒昧说一句，比尔。你会看到超大规模公司。你会看到亚马逊和Meta这些公司重新涉足稳定币业务。归根结底，我们知道货币是一个网络效应的业务。从消费者角度来看，Circle和一些这些稳定币面临的挑战是Visa和万事达卡是普遍接受的。

I'll go out on a limb, Bill. You're gonna see the you're gonna see the hyperscalers. You're gonna see Amazon and Meta and these guys back involved in the stable business. At the end of the day, we know money is a network effects business. And the challenge of Circle and some of these stables from a consumer perspective is Visa and Mastercard are universal.

所以你必须触达所有商家。那么，谁拥有所有商家呢？亚马逊和Meta，对吧？因此我认为它们处于绝佳位置，要么与这些公司合作，要么自己开展部分业务。

You So gotta get to all the merchants. Well, who has all the merchants? Amazon and Meta. Right? And so I think they're in a great position to partner with or do some of these things themselves.

显然，它们有做这件事的本能。这就是它们当初推出Libra的原因。

Clearly, they have the instinct to do it. That's why they did Libra in the first place back.

这对创新也非常有利。我认为那些大公司应该投入其中的一个原因是，如果你看看英国、中国和印度提到的支付替代方案的历史，那些进行金融创新的初创公司在更便宜、更快捷的轨道上扩张得更积极、更成功。相反，拥有更僵化、高摩擦、高交易成本的轨道会让初创公司更难考虑使用这些技术。正如我从中国见闻中描述的，微信支付和支付宝的成功是普遍现象——它们是中国唯一的支付方式。

It's also amazing for innovation. And and one of the reasons why I think those bigger companies should run at this is if you look at the history of the picks like alternatives, mentioned in The UK and China and India, The startups that do financial innovation scale up way more aggressively and successfully on those rails that are cheaper and faster. And if if anything, the having more rigid, high friction, high transaction cost rails makes it harder for a startup to think about, you know, using one of those technologies. And so the success of WeChat Pay and Alipay, which as I described from my China chip, are universal. They're the only way people pay in China.

这恰恰得益于政府的即时支付产品，而非尽管它才成功。我与NewBank首席执行官交谈时，他也说PIX对他的业务影响巨大。所以这对落后银行可能不利，但对拥抱它的银行来说，这只是一个更好的功能。我认为Coinbase及其举措也是如此。

Happened because of that government instant pay product, not not in spite of it. And and the same thing I talked to the CEO of NewBank. He said PIX was huge for his business. So it's probably bad for a laggard bank, but for a bank that embraces it, it just becomes a better feature. And I think the same thing about Coinbase and what they're doing here.

因此我为创新喝彩。我正跳上加密货币的列车，并希望既得利益者无法在华盛顿扼杀这件事。

So I'm applauding the innovation. I'm I'm I'm jumping on board to crypto train, and I hope I hope the incumbents aren't able to strangle this thing in Washington.

说得好。说得好。说得好。说得好。

Hear. Hear. Hear. Hear.

在我们接近尾声，讨论我的书和下一步计划时，我想分享的是，我的书和下一个项目都超出了我职业生涯一直从事的领域。正如我提到的，这有点超出我的舒适区，但也是试图在我不太熟悉的领域产生影响并回馈社会，希望能有所作为。我之前跟你说过，坦白说，我是受到你《投资美国》成功的启发才去做这件事的。当你第一次告诉我时，我确实怀疑你能否成功，真的怀疑。几十年来，我见过其他像你这样处境的人尝试做这类事情却未能成功。

As we move towards the end and and talk about my book and what I'm gonna do next, I do want to share with you that that both my book and and the the next project are outside of what I've I've spent my career doing. And and as I mentioned, you know, that that's kinda moving outside my comfort zone, but it's also, you know, trying to have an impact and give back in areas that that I don't know as well, but but with a hope towards having an impact. I've said this to you before, but I I've been just inspired, frankly, to go do this based on your success with Invest America. And when you first told me about it, you know, I had doubts that you could get it done, real doubts. And I've watched other people in your shoes try and do these types of things over decades and be unsuccessful.

所以你让它看起来很容易。我知道这仅仅是开始，但我想让你知道这对我接下来要做的事情有多大的启发。你能给我们更新一下事情的进展吗？

So you made it look easy. I know it's just getting started, but I wanted you to know how much that inspired what I'm gonna go do. And and could you give us an update on where things are?

这对我来说意义重大，比尔。也许首先谈谈它只是一个提醒。你知道，我想你我都同意。在资本主义问题上，我们现在某种程度上在为美国的灵魂而战，对吧？

That means a lot, Bill. Maybe to talk about it first is just a reminder. You know, we I think you and I agree. We kinda have this battle for the soul of America when it comes to capitalism right now. Right?

而这根本上是因为太多人感到被排除在外和落后。60%的人永远不会拥有复利资产。嗯。曼达米在纽约市长竞选中获胜，你知道，他们是通过反资本主义的方式做到的。但如果你看这两张图表，我之前展示过很多次，它们只是表明自由市场资本主义是世界历史上最高效的力量。

And that that's fundamentally because too many people feel left out and left behind. 60% of people will never own assets that compound. Mhmm. Mandami's winning the mayoral race in New York City, and, you know, they're doing it by being anti capitalist. But if you look at these two charts, I've shown them many times before, it just shows you that free market capitalism is the most productive force in the history of the world.

对吧？第一张图表显示，全球GDP正是在资本主义真正引入并开始腾飞的同时呈抛物线式增长。而且，提醒一下，GDP很重要，因为它是人类在固定劳动力和资本下的剩余，从而带来更好的学校、更好的医院、拯救生命的药物以及所有让我们的生活更美好的东西。你可以看这张显示结果的图表。更少的母亲在分娩中死亡。

Right? This first chart just shows that GDP on a global basis went parabolic at the exact same time that capitalism was really introduced and started taking off. And, you know, reminder, like GDP is important because it's that surplus for humanity with a fixed amount of labor and capital that then leads to better schools and better hospitals and drugs that save lives and all the things that make our lives better. And you can look at this chart that shows the results. Fewer mothers die in childbirth.

平均寿命延长了。生活质量更高了。识字率更高了。比尔·盖茨在他的年度信中对此大加赞扬。所以这不仅仅是一个投资账户。

The average age, you know, of life is extended. The quality of life is higher. Literacy rates are higher. Bill Gates extols upon this in his in his annual letters. So it's not just an investment account.

这实际上是一场关于我们希望国家走向何方的更大得多的战斗。而且，你知道，几年前我非常担心我们正走向这条路。对吧？这条路就是不能让这么多人被排除在外和落后。所以我认为社会主义的答案——它在欧洲并没有奏效，对吧？

This is really a much, much bigger battle over where we want the country to go. And I was very concerned, as you know, a few years ago, that we were headed down this path. Right? And the path is that you can't have so many people left out and left behind. So I think the answer to socialism, which has not worked for Europe, right?

就全球竞争力而言，欧洲相对于三十年前处于灾难之中。而中国，正如你很好地指出的，通过利用资本主义摆脱了贫困。对吧？所以，应对这种滑向社会主义的答案就是更多的资本主义。而‘投资美国账户’，现在被称为‘特朗普账户’，对吧，就是更多的资本主义。

Europe's in a disaster relative to where they were thirty years ago on a on on a global competitive basis. And China, as you well noted, have pulled themselves out of poverty by leveraging capitalism. Right? So the answer to this drift into socialism is more capitalism. And the Invest America accounts, now known as the Trump accounts, right, are more capitalism.

他们让每个孩子从出生就成为资本家。一位私人所有者会给他们一千美元，存入一个类似401K的账户，由他们自己拥有和控制，他们的家人可以在手机上管理。所以我认为这将是改变游戏规则的举措，但你说得对，我们刚刚才通过这项政策。那么我们现在进展到哪一步了？

They make every child a capitalist from birth. A private owner gives them a thousand bucks in a four zero one K like account that they own and control, their family has on their phone. And so I think that's a game changer, you know, but you're right. We just got it passed. So what where are we now?

财政部长斯科特·贝森特必须实施这一计划。顺便说一下，这是政府历史上规模最大的消费者启动项目之一。所以从今天开始，全国有6500万儿童有资格获得一个“投资美国”账户，所有18岁以下的孩子都可以申请。而每个两岁以下的孩子将自动获得1000美元存入账户，对吧？

The treasury secretary, Scott Bessent, has to implement this. And by the way, this is one of the largest consumer launches in the history of government. So at the start today, there are 65,000,000 kids in the country qualified for an Invest America account, every kid under the age of 18. And every kid under the age of two will automatically get $1,000 in their account. Right?

所以你可能会在12月初听到启动消息。他们会推出网站，人们可以注册。记住，账户必须在2026年7月4日，也就是我们250岁生日之前完成资金注入和设立，现在距离那时只有9个月了。我可以告诉你，我对部长贝森特、助理部长卢克·佩蒂特以及财政部与白宫合作的团队印象深刻。

So you'll probably hear a launch starting in maybe early December. Well, they'll launch the website, people can sign up for this. Remember, the accounts have to be funded and established by our two and fiftieth birthday, 07/04/2026. That's only nine months from now. And I can tell you I've been blown away by the secretary, secretary Bessent, the assistant secretary Luke Pettit, and the team at treasury working with the White House.

他们以我期望硅谷初创公司解决问题的方式在推进这项工作。他们组建了一个优秀的技术团队，乔·格比亚（来自爱彼迎）帮助设计前端。所以，我们现在即将发布一些重大公告，开始让人们为孩子注册。然后目标是，一旦启动，所有这些孩子都将拥有这些账户。

They're attacking this the way I would attack I would expect a a Silicon Valley startup to attack the problem. They've gotten a great great group of technologists, Joe Gebia helping to design the front end of this, of course, from Airbnb. So, you know, we're we're on the verge now of some major announcements, the the start where people can start signing up their kids. You know? And then the goal is once we launch this, all these kids will have these accounts.

他们将能够把这些账户转入他们喜欢的银行，无论是嘉信理财、富达、摩根大通还是其他机构。从7月4日开始，比尔，我们将尽可能实现自动开户。所以，孩子出生后，他们会获得社会保障号码，并有一个存入1000美元的账户。从孩子的角度来看，他们会觉得‘我拥有一点微软股票，一点联合健康保险和英伟达股票等等’。我们将能够借此教育他们——事实上，你的朋友蒂姆正在教授金融知识。

They'll be able to roll them over into their favorite, you know, bank, whether it's Schwab or Fidelity or JPMorgan or what have you. And starting on July 4, Bill, as close to automatic account creation as possible. So you have a child, the child's born, they get a social security number, and they get an account seated with a thousand bucks. From a kid's perspective, it's gonna look like I own a little bit of Microsoft, and I own a little bit of of UnitedHealthcare and Nvidia and whatever. We're gonna be able to teach us, in fact, you know, your buddy, Tim, who's teaching financial literacy.

现在有30个州要求进行金融素养教育。我们将把这嵌入学校课程中。每个孩子都会在手机上拥有这个账户。总之，进展非常顺利。我给他们打分很高，但我们必须完成它。

We now have 30 states require financial literacy requirements. We're gonna have this embedded in the schools. Every kid's gonna have this on their phone. So at any rate, it's going incredibly well. I give them a very high score, but we gotta get it done.

那么我们来谈谈你的书。我一直非常喜欢你关于这个主题的演讲，但我特别喜欢书名《追逐梦想》。这本书的核心是什么？我记得那次讲座，但是什么真正促使你写这本书？

So let's talk about your book. I've been a huge fan of of of the of the speech you made on this, but I love the title, Running Down a Dream. What's the thrust of the book? I remember, you you know, kind of that lecture, but what really compelled you to write it?

那是几年前的事了，大概要追溯到十年前。我读了很多传记，注意到那些拥有非凡职业生涯的人身上存在某些模式。作为风险投资人，我们在商业中看到很多模式，并进行模式识别。我也在人们身上看到了模式。我心里一直想做这个演讲。

I was years ago, and this is probably going back ten years. I was reading a lot of biographies and I noticed certain patterns among people with extraordinary careers. And as VCs, we see a lot of patterns in businesses and pattern recognition. And I just saw patterns with people. And in the back of my mind, I always wanted to do this presentation.

我有点像写一篇未发表的博客文章那样做了笔记。后来我得到了一个机会，受邀在德克萨斯大学的NBA班级做这个演讲。于是我努力准备，把它整理好，做得漂亮，然后做了那个演讲。

I I kinda kept notes on it like I would a unwritten above the crowd blog post. And I had an opportunity. I got invited. I had an opportunity to give the presentation to the NBA class at the University of Texas. And so I, you know, I worked on it and put it together, made it nice, and gave that presentation.

他们最终把演讲视频放到了YouTube上。很多人来找我，说它改变了他们的生活，鼓励他们去做不同的事情。媒体行业的某些人注意到了，比如大卫·辛拉，他有一个新播客，采访了丹尼尔·埃克和迈克尔。他是这个演讲的忠实粉丝，在他的播客中经常谈论它。还有詹姆斯·克利尔，他写了《原子习惯》，可能是目前最好的自助和个人发展作家之一。

They ended up putting that on YouTube. And many people have come to me and said that it's changed their lives, encouraged them to do different things. Certain people in the in the in the media industry noticed David Synra, who's got the new podcast where he interviewed Daniel Ek and Michael. He's a big fan of the presentation, talks about it a lot in on his podcast. James Clear, who wrote Atomic Habits, maybe one of the best self help personal development writers out there.

他转发了它，并在自己的网站上发布了文字稿。然后，我生活中一些有影响力的人开始催促我。你应该把它

He retweeted it and put a transcript on his own website. And then a few people who are influential in my life started prodding me. You should turn

写成书。

that into a book.

所以最终我被说服了。我们和出版商谈了谈，他们很感兴趣。于是我开始着手这件事。不过，这花了很长时间。

And so eventually, I got convinced. We talked to publishers. They were interested. And so I started working on this. Now it it took a long time.

我想说的是，我希望那些时间能等同于质量。我当时真的很想把它做好。所以这本书有一个有趣的新颖结构。我们结合了我称之为‘人物档案’（成功的故事）和‘成功原则与工具’。它们是交替出现的。

And the the thing I would say about it is that I hope that that time equates to quality. Like, I was out there really wanting to make it great. And so the book has an interesting kind of novel architecture. We combine what I call profiles, so stories of success with principles, tools of success. So they alternate.

所以你会看到一个关于某个你不认识的人的故事，讲述他们如何从最底层起步，最终取得成功，以及他们所做的种种事情。我确实认为书中提供的这些原则和工具是人们可以使用的。我真心希望它能很棒。书已经写完了，但我还需要录制音频版本。

So you get a a story maybe about someone you didn't know and how they started at the very bottom and became successful and then the types of things they did. And I do I do think that the principles, these tools that that are in the book are things people can use. And I really want it to be great. It's done. I still need to record the audio version.

我们所有的播客粉丝都告诉我必须这么做，必须用我的声音，所以我打算录。我希望人们会喜欢它，我希望它能改善他们的生活。我真正想鼓励的是人们抓住机会，去做他们真正热爱的事情。

All the podcast fans of ours tell me I have to do it. It has to be my voice, so I'm gonna do it. I hope people love it. I I hope it changes their lives for the better. And and what I really wanna encourage is people to take a chance and and do what they really love.

我认为这是一个非常重要的话题。你知道，最近很多家长经常问我，我的孩子应该做什么？特别是现在世界上对未来职业有很多焦虑。所以也许你可以谈谈为什么现在这一点如此重要，因为我觉得时机非常关键。

I think it's such an important topic. You know, one of the things parents are asking me so much these days is, you know, what what should my kids do? Particularly get there's a lot of anxiety in the world, right, about future careers. And so maybe just talk a little bit about why this is so important now, because I think the timing is really profound here.

在引言章节中，我们详细探讨了这一点。我想当我说出一些数据时，没有人会感到惊讶。盖洛普进行了一项职业投入度研究，他们已经做了很长时间。在2023年的调查中，只有23%的人表示他们在工作中感到充实或投入，而有59%的人感到不满意。这只是一个大型的普遍调查。

So in in the introduction chapter, we unpack a lot of this. And I don't think anyone would be surprised when I read some of this, but but Gallup poll does a career engagement study. They've been doing it for a long time. I think in the twenty twenty three one, only twenty three percent of people said they were thriving or engaged at work, and 59% were unsatisfied. And that's just a big universal survey.

似乎大家都意识到，我们已经把孩子推入了一种严酷的考验，当他们接近大学和进入大学时。在《美国心灵的呵护》一书中，海特和卢西亚诺称之为简历军备竞赛。我们确实教会了他们成为苦干者，但安吉拉·达克沃斯强调，如果你有毅力但没有激情，最终你会意识到自己只是在苦苦挣扎。当你从中走出来时，你会处于一个非常艰难的境地。所以我们让这些孩子走上了这条跑道。

Everyone seems aware that we've kind of moved to this gauntlet that we've put our kids in as they approach college and go through college. In the cuddling of the American mind, Height and Luciano called a resume arms race. And, we've really taught them to be grinders, but Angela Duckworth highlights that if you have persistence but not passion, you eventually recognize you're in a grind. And and and and when you come out of that, you're in a really tough spot. And so we've got people we've got these kids on this runway.

我们告诉他们，甚至在申请时就必须选择一个专业。他们才17岁。你一生想做什么？你想做什么？而他们真的不知道。

We we're telling them like they have to pick a a major even in their application. So they're 17. What do you wanna do with your life? What do you wanna do? And and and they they really don't know.

在研究这本书时，我们偶然发现了一件事。我当时和一位研究人员合作，我们做了一项调查，问人们如果你能重新开始你的职业生涯，你会做出不同的选择吗？在那项调查中，70%的人回答是。为了确保我们进行的是真正的学术调查，我们又与沃顿商学院合作了一次，他们调查了更多的人，结果仍然是十分之六的人持肯定回答。

And one thing we stumbled upon doing research on the book, I I was working with a researcher. We did this survey and asked people if you could start your career over again, would you do things differently? And in that survey, 70% of people said yes. And we did it again with Wharton just to make sure we had, you know, a a true academic survey going on, and they did a lot more people. And that number was still six in 10.

十分之六的人表示，如果能重新开始职业生涯，他们会再次选择这条路。有一本很棒的书——我在写书时读了很多书，但丹尼尔·平克写的《后悔的力量》非常出色。他是一位知名作家，但他提出了一个概念，称之为‘大胆的遗憾’。

Six in 10 said if they could start a career over, they'd do it again. And there's a there's a great book. I read a lot of books in writing my book, but there's a great book called The Power of Regret by Daniel Pink. He's he's a well known author. But he he has this thing he calls boldness regrets.

他说，学术研究和他个人发现中最有力的结论之一是，随着时间的推移，我们更可能后悔没有抓住的机会，而非已经尝试过的。他再次强调，无论是涉及风险的领域、教育、工作还是爱情生活，具体领域并不重要。真正困扰我们的是不作为本身。所以我认为这与‘如果能重来，人们会做出不同选择’的观点非常契合。平克引用了一个很棒的视频，我们可以放在节目备注中，其中贝佐斯被问及离开D.E.肖公司并创立亚马逊的决定。

And he said, one of the most robust findings in the academic research and on my own is that over time, we are much more likely to regret the chances we didn't take than the chances we did. He says, again, the surface domain, whether the risk involved or education or work or love lives, doesn't matter much. What haunts us is the inaction itself. And so I think that I think that ties really nicely with this idea that if people could start over, they'd do some they'd do something different. There's a great video that that Pink references that we can put in the show notes where Bezos is asked about the decision to leave DE Shaw and and start Amazon.

他说他使用了‘后悔最小化框架’。他说，哦，只有书呆子才会这么做。但他想象自己80岁时的情景：他会更在意离开D.E.肖公司可能错过的奖金，还是更在意没有抓住这个他感觉必须追随的本能机会？

And he said he used a regret minimization framework. He said, oh, it's only a nerd could do that. But he said that he imagined himself being 80, and would he care that he left D. E. Shaw maybe for win a bonus, you know, or would he or would he care more that he didn't take this chance, this kind of instinctive chance that he felt like he had to take?

这样一想之后，他立刻就想去做这件事。所以

And he immediately after thinking about it in that way wanted to go do it. And so

嘿，比尔。我把贝佐斯的后悔最小化框架贴在了我的电脑显示器上。

Hey, Bill. I have Bezos's regret minimization framework taped to my computer monitor.

这就对了。我甚至都没

There you go. Right. I didn't even

知道。它真的贴在我的显示器上。是的，很有力量。

know that. It's literally taped to my monitor. Yeah. Powerful.

是的。所以这就是这本书的主题。这就是这本书的内容。这就是它的目标读者。我希望更多人能放手一搏，去做他们热爱的事情。

Yeah. So that's that's that's what this is about. That's what this book is about. That's who it's for. And I want more people to take a flyer and go do what they love.

你知道，我在书里用了一个说法：人生是一场非用即失的命题。

You know, we have a phrase I use in the book, life is a use it or lose it proposition.

完全同意。就是一次性的机会啊。那你打算怎么推广它？

Totally. One shot deal, man. Well, how do you plan to promote it?

它将在二月下旬上市，所以我刚刚开始这个推广过程。如果大家有想法想和我分享，请尽管联系我

It comes out in February, late February, and so I'm just getting started in that process. If people have ideas they wanna share with me, please reach out and let me

比尔，我来帮你办一场新书发布会。

I'll host I'll I'll host a book launch event, Bill.

好的。好的。我们计划了很多有趣的活动，但是但是我需要录制有声书。我知道这会花费很多时间。我很兴奋。

Okay. Okay. We we've got we've got a lot of fun stuff planned, but but but but I need to record the audiobook. I I know that's gonna take a a lot of time. I'm excited.

已经有少数人读过它，大概50人左右，包括出版社的人等等，几乎每个人都告诉我，他们立刻想到了三四个想赠送的对象。所以我希望它能有点病毒式传播的效果，因为大家都有这种反应。但是，如果你在职业发展中感到迷茫，你应该读读这本书。如果你是青少年或年轻人，对别人总问'你想主修什么专业？想去哪里发展？'感到不知所措，也该看看。

There's a handful of people that have read it, maybe maybe 50 in the publisher and whatnot, and nearly every one of them tells me that they immediately thought of three or four people they wanna give it to. And so I hope there's kind of a viral component to it because people have that reaction. But, you know, if you're feeling stuck in your career, you should read it. If you're a teenager, young adult who feels overwhelmed by people telling you, where do you wanna major in? Where do you wanna go?

你打算怎么做呢？我认为这本书不会给他们带来更多压力，反而会让他们放松，并提供一个感觉更个性化、更能自主掌控的框架。如果你想帮助孩子走这条路，我觉得家长有时会过度把孩子推向律师、医生、银行家的框架。我不确定这是否健康，尤其是在这个AI时代，这些职业也可能面临风险。如果你是管理员或从事指导职业决策的人，希望你也喜欢这本书。

What are you gonna do with your like, I think this book won't put more pressure on them. I think it'll actually relax them and give them a framework that feels like a lot more personal to themselves and like they're a lot more in control. If you're a parent that wants to help a child on that journey, I think parents sometimes overly push kids into the lawyer, doctor, banker framework. I'm I'm not sure that's healthy, especially in this AI world where those jobs may be under risk as well. And then maybe if you're, you know, an administrator or someone in the type of role that guide people in career decisions, hopefully, you'll like it as well.

我们会把预订链接放在节目说明里，我也会发在我的X动态中。请去预订这本书吧，我觉得这能帮助它触达更多人并取得成功。

But we'll put the preorder link in the in in the show notes. I will put it on my x feed. Please go out and preorder the book. I think it'll help it be reach more people and and be successful.

嗯，我认为这将产生巨大影响，是具有深远意义的事情。我真的很高兴你在做这件事，很高兴你花时间去做。我知道这不是你唯一在思考的事情，比尔，你还在考虑其他重大议题。

Well, I think it's it's gonna be hugely impactful, and it's the type of stuff of consequence. I'm I'm I'm just you know, I'm thrilled that you're doing it. I'm thrilled that you're taking the time to do it. I know that's not the only thing that you're you're you're thinking about. You have these other, you know, big topics that you're thinking about as well, Bill.

我们在这里讨论过，而且肯定还会继续讨论。监管俘获、美国医疗保健、核能等等。你对这些事有什么想法？你打算每样都写一本书吗？

We've talked about them here, and I'm sure we will continue to. Regulatory capture, US health care, nuclear, etcetera. What are you thinking about with respect to those things? I'm You're gonna write a book on every one of them?

不，那个嘛，我可以写，但这不是我的目标。我的目标是花更多时间在这些真正的大问题上，看看能否以任何方式提供帮助。我的职业生涯一直在剖析和分析各种情况，我们做过的播客中我最喜欢的两期，我也从社区听到了反馈。

No. I that's well, I could, but it's not it's not my goal. My my goal is to just go spend more times on these really big problems and see if I can be helpful in any way. I've spent a career kind of breaking down and analyzing different situations. I mean, two two of my favorite podcasts we've done, and and I hear I hear about this from the community as well.

一期是关于迪亚布罗峡谷的，另一期是关于我的中国之行。这类工作让我很有成就感，但它们也是学习探索。你知道，我为这些节目投入的时间比其他节目多。特别是关于核能的那期，有人问我为什么要做这个？

The one we did at Diablo Canyon and then the one about around my China trip. And those types of of work are very rewarding for me, but they also were learning expeditions. You know, I went out and put in more hours for those episodes than others. Right. And the the nuclear one in particular, you know, one of the things people ask me why would I wanna go do this?

你知道，我们是一场改变核能思维运动的一小部分。有很多人付出了更多努力，我不是想抢功。但事实上，史蒂夫·平克站出来，埃隆也关注我们的内容，最终它发生了。仿佛一夜之间，我们从对核能非常负面的看法转变为认识到它是非常清洁的能源，能真正帮助拯救地球。

You know, we we were a small part of a movement to kinda change the mindset on nuclear energy. And there were there were people that put a lot more effort into to us. I'm not trying to take credit for it. But, you know, the fact that Steve Pinker was out there, Elon, you know, our stuff, like, it eventually happened. Like, overnight seemingly overnight, we went from a very negative mindset towards nuclear energy to recognizing that it's very clean energy and something that that can really help save the planet.

所以那种观念的翻转，如果我能在这方面取得更多进展，我会认为是一种胜利。这就是激励我的动力。我真的很期待。我既兴奋又紧张。但这就是我目前的想法。

And so that type of meme flip, if I could go achieve more of those in these other areas, would consider it a win. So that's what's motivating me. I'm really looking forward to it. I'm kinda fired up and nervous at the same time. But but that's what that's what I'm thinking about.

关于平台具体会是什么样子，后续会有更多信息。我还在努力完善中。但现在，我要全力冲刺二月份，确保这本书能取得好成绩。

There'll be more to come on that in terms of what the actual platform looks like. I'm still working on it. But for now, I'm gonna I'm gonna sprint into February to make sure the book does well.

我为你感到无比激动。这真是太棒了。你我相识几十年，但最近两年一起合作，共同完成这些项目，对我来说乐趣无穷。我相信我们会继续每天交流，你肯定会找到一些非探索不可的话题

I couldn't be more stoked for you. This has been a total blast. You and I have been chopping it up for, you know, for a couple decades, but doing this the last two years together, pounding out these has been a lot of fun for me. I'm sure we'll continue to chop it up every day and, you know, I'm sure that you'll find some topic that you can't live without exploring

来讨论。

on talking about.

没错。我们会再邀请你回来。但现在我把最后发言权交给你，比尔。太棒了。听到所有这些消息真的很棒，我对这本书超级期待。

Exactly. We'll we'll we'll get you back on. But I'm gonna give you the last word, Bill. It's awesome. Awesome to hear about all of this, and I'm super excited for the book.

好吧，布拉德，我想用开场时的话来结束——感谢你。每周这样合作很有趣，这迫使你保持敏锐。你必须尽可能阅读所有资料，这对投资者来说肯定超级有帮助。

Well, I would I would just, you know, end the way I started, Brad. Thanks to you. It's been fun working together on this and and, and doing it every week. It does force you to stay fresh. You have to read everything you possibly can, which I'm sure is super helpful to use an investor.

还要感谢所有听众。我知道有些人可能会觉得我让他们失望了，我也感受到这种压力。但希望他们能理解，我会努力把我的工作投入到有意义的事业中。

And then thanks to thanks to all our listeners. Like, I I I I'm sure some of them are feel gonna feel like I'm letting them down, and I I feel the weight of that. But hopefully they'll recognize that I'm gonna go try and put put my work effort to good to good causes.

提醒大家，这只是我们的观点，并非投资建议。

As a reminder to everybody, just our opinions, not investment advice.