AI设备大战升温，元宇宙已死？Netflix收购华纳兄弟

只要你掌握了交付机制，就意味着你拥有设备的所有权。

As long as you have the delivery mechanism, that means you own the device.

不过要做到这一点。

Doing that, though.

我觉得，他们太过投入而且

I think, like, they're too bought in and

这就是我认为他会这么做的原因。

Here's why I think he's gonna do it.

是的。

Yeah.

苹果将在明年年底发布其智能眼镜。

Apple is gonna release its smart glasses targeted end of next year.

好的。

Okay.

你

You

必须提供比苹果更好的产品，就这么简单。

have to have a better better offering than Apple, period.

是啊。

Yeah.

所以即使你必须在代理端放弃一点控制权，你也要这么做。

And so even if you have to give up a little control on the agent side, you do it.

好的。

Okay.

好的。

Okay.

无论如何，定位很好。

Either way, well positioned.

定位很好。

Well positioned.

我们来看看OpenAI。

Let's go to OpenAI.

就在上个月，Sam Altman和Johnny Ive达成了65亿美元的合作协议

Recently, as last month, Sam Altman and Johnny Ive, who've, of course, came to the $6,500,000,000 agreement to work together

天啊

Oh my god.

忘了

Forgot

这确实是一大笔钱

the It's a lot of money.

一大笔钱

A lot of money.

他们正在开发一种外形类似智能手机但没有屏幕的设备

They are building something that looks like a smartphone but has no screen.

他们表示已确定产品形态，有传言称就是这种设计

They say they've settled on a form factor, and the rumors say that's what it is.

显然，OpenAI拥有最优秀的模型之一

Obviously, OpenAI comes to it with one of the best models.

你怎么看？

So what do you think?

我得说从模型角度来看，他们的定位相当不错。

I'm gonna say relatively well positioned from the model.

我这么说的原因是语音模式已经运作得非常好了。

And the reason I say that is voice mode works already very well.

实际上，语音几乎已经成为我与AI交互的主要方式了。

And actually, like, voice has become almost my primary way of interacting with AI.

我在用一个叫Whisper Flow的工具。

I use something called Whisper Flow.

我喜欢的是你可以自定义词典，这样它就能准确识别你的听写内容了。

I love it's you can kind of define your own dictionary so it starts actually getting your dictation right.

你可以随意说，它会帮你精简整理。

You can ramble and it'll condense it and clean it up.

所以我认为语音将成为人们与AI交互的主要方式。

So, like, I believe voice is going to be the primary way people do interact with AI.

OpenAI已经证明了这一点，从模型的角度来看，就像《南方公园》里那样，你知道的，有点像是在拿它开玩笑。

And OpenAI has already shown that, yeah, from a model perspective, from like South Park, you know, kinda like making fun of it.

是啊。

Yeah.

但这是因为它的表现太出色了。

But it's because it's so good.

话虽如此，我对OpenAI的担忧在于他们的专注度。

That being said, my concern with OpenAI is just focus.

我的意思是，这周又有新消息传出，关于他们的'红色警报'，以及他们将重点投入哪些项目、推迟哪些计划。

And like, I mean, more came out this week around them, like in their code red and what projects they're gonna focus on and what they're gonna delay.

他们手头的事情实在太多了。

Like, they're they have too much going on.

所以，硬件方面，我的预测是这将成为某种附带项目，最终引发内部政治动荡。

So, like, hardware, my my prediction is it's gonna be this kinda, like, side project that is gonna cause internal political turmoil.

而且，你知道的，这里面涉及太多个人ego了。

And, like, you know, it'll just not there's a lot of ego.

世界上有很多像乔尼·艾维这样的人参与其中。

There's a lot of the Johnny Ives of the world are involved.

而且，在他们面临营收和盈利能力挑战以及所有核心问题时，这不可能成为首要任务，短期内也不会对他们的业务产生决定性影响。

And, like, it's just it can't be front and center when they have revenue and profitability challenges and cap like, all the core challenges, it's not gonna make or break their business anytime soon.

所以它会被降级处理，这将引发问题。

So it will get deprioritized, and that's gonna cause issues.

是的。

Yeah.

我认为在他们做对之前会有几次错误的开始。

I think there's gonna be a couple of false starts there before they get it right.

其中一些，也许是高瞻远瞩的想法，我不确定。

Some of this, like, high mind maybe I don't know.

你从山姆和乔尼那里听到的这些高瞻远瞩的设计讨论，听得越多，我越觉得他们发布时会遇到麻烦。

Some of this high minded design talk that you hear from Sam and Johnny, just, like, the more I hear of it, the more I'm like, you're gonna have some trouble when you release.

我看过他们两人的一个采访，山姆说，乔尼告诉他，当你想咬一口这个设备时，我们就知道它准备好了。

They I watched an interview of the two of them where Sam said, well, Johnny told me that we know the device will be ready when you're gonna wanna take a bite out of it.

第一次我们喜欢做原型，但并不真的想使用它。

And the first time, we liked to prototype, but we didn't really wanna eat it.

现在我们有了一个

And now we have one

我们

that we

想要咬一口

wanna take a bite

的。

out of.

这其实是我评估所有科技产品的标准。

That is actually how I evaluate all my technology.

当我去苹果店、谷歌店，买Meta雷朋眼镜时，可怜的店员都被我折腾得够呛。

When I go to the Apple Store, when I go to the Google Store, when I was buying my Meta Ray Bans, the poor store associate just You're, like, exhausting.

关于这件事我已经说过，约翰尼。

On the thing to do this I just Johnny, I have said it.

但从某种程度上说，他们的优势在于我认为从零开始思考AI时代的硬件形态确实是个优势。

But but in a way, though, let's say let's their advantage in this is I do think starting from scratch when you think about what is the hardware for the AI era gonna look like is an advantage.

没有任何历史包袱。

Not having any legacy.

必须是眼镜形态。

It's gotta be glasses.

必须要有屏幕。

It's gotta be a screen.

就像...虽然我讨厌说'第一性原理'这个词，但确实需要从最基础重新构想硬件的目的和形态，这是个重新思考设计的绝佳时机。

Just really starting from, like, I hate saying first principles, but I'm gonna say, like I mean, and just really being able to reimagine what that is and what's the purpose of it is is a cool moment to really rethink design.

我认为这确实给了他们至少一点点优势吧。

And I do think it it's a it gives them at least a little bit of an advantage, I guess.

但我想问你一个问题。

But let me ask you this.

如果这个设备是智能手机形态却没有屏幕，那它和普通应用有什么区别？

If it the device is smartphone style, has no screen, why isn't it just an app?

因为它是...我是说，我我不确定。

Because it's got a the I mean, I I don't know.

不过，实际上，等一下。

But, actually, hold on.

我看到Plaud（p l a u d），他们基本上有一个像别针和笔记本大小的东西，类似名片尺寸，本质上就是个录音器，一个AI录音器。

I saw so plaud, p l a u d, they have they have basically a pin and, like, a notebook a a business card sized thing that's basically just a a recorder, an AI recorder.

我刚看到他们的收入已经达到2.5亿美元了。

I just saw that they're at, like, 250,000,000 in revenue.

我一直在关注他们，这种独立设备的形式——就是个录音器，可能还能做些其他事情，能获取你的上下文进行处理，或许还能在设备本地完成，我觉得这里面有点意思。

I've been looking at them, like so already that form factor of having a separate device that's just a recorder and can maybe do some other things and, like, just gets your context, processes it, maybe is able to do it on device, I think there's something there.

我只是在笑，因为我正等着Sam和Johnny推出这个设备，结果它看起来像个甜甜圈。

I'm just smiling because I I'm just waiting for Sam and Johnny to come out with this device, and it just looks like a doughnut.

就像是个撒了糖粒的巧克力甜甜圈。

It's like it's a chocolate doughnut with sprinkles on top.

你会爱上它的，而且它还能录音

You're gonna love it, and it will record

我总会咬我的设备

everything I you only I always bite my devices.

那是

That's

是啊

Yeah.

那么，你就是与世界顶级设计人才齐名的存在

Well, then you're you are the world's top you're on par with the world's top design talent.

要知道，有一家公司在这里被忽视了，那就是亚马逊

So, you know, one company that gets overlooked here is Amazon.

别忘了，亚马逊拥有数亿台Echo设备

Remember, Amazon has hundreds of millions of Echo devices.

它其实还有智能眼镜，这可能会让很多人感到惊讶

It has it actually has smart glasses, which might surprise many of you.

它们叫做Echo Frames

They're called the Echo Frames.

伙计们，有段时间他们把Echo塞进了所有东西里。

Guys, there was a while they were throwing Echo into everything.

对。

Yep.

Echo微波炉，Echo对。

Echo microwave, Echo Yeah.

没错。

Yeah.

Echo挂钟。

Echo wall clock.

是的。

Yeah.

但他们确实有智能眼镜。

But they do have smart glasses.

我要说，几个月前亚马逊设备与服务负责人Panos Panay就坐在你现在的位置上，告诉我Alexa Plus即将向所有人推出。

And I will say, a couple of months ago, Panos Panay from Amazon, Head of Devices and Services, sat in the seat you're sitting in, told me that Alexa Plus is gonna roll out to everyone.

我不确定它是否已经完全推出了。

I don't know if it's fully rolled out yet.

我已经有了。

I have it.

但我已经有了。

But I have it.

是的。

Yep.

我一直很惊讶。

I have been surprised.

对。

Yeah.

我认为它比许多评论家所评价的要好。

I think it's better than a lot of the reviewers have given it credit for.

所以我...好吧。

So I so okay.

亚马逊，这个挺有意思的。

Amazon, it's an interesting one.

首先，我重新用回了Alexa和亚马逊Echo。

First of all, I I went back to Alexa and the Amazon Echo.

我的灯还是连着Siri的，但之前有段时间我全用HomePod，天哪，问题一大堆。

I still have my lights hooked up to Siri, but, like, I had gone full HomePod for a while and my god, problem.

真为你感到遗憾。

Bless your heart.

是啊。

Yeah.

我知道。

I know.

但现在我有了Echo Show。

But so now I have the Echo Show.

我有一个带显示屏的小型Echo。

I have, like, a small Echo with a display.

Alexa Plus，我经常使用它。

Alexa Plus, using it a lot.

在我的厨房里，它已经成了我的烹饪伙伴。

In my kitchen, that's become my, like, cooking companion.

还不错。

It's good.

但不算出色。

It's not great.

我不认为它能与Gemini语音模式、OpenAI的ChatGPT语音模式相提并论。

It's not it is I do not think it's on par with a Gemini voice mode, OpenAI voice ChatGPT voice mode.

而且它经常出错。

But and it gets a lot of stuff wrong.

奇怪的是，我前几天还在Twitter上发过这个。

Like, weirdly, I I posted about this on Twitter the other day.

比如，它会搞错NFL比赛得分。

Like, it gets NFL scores wrong.

这也太离谱了吧。

It's like, come on.

这些基本的确定性问题的答案总该答对吧。

You gotta get, like, these these just basic deterministic questions right.

但后续的对话模式还挺不错的。

But the follow on conversation mode is pretty good.

所以从设备深入千家万户的角度来看，它们确实占据优势。

So just from a device ingrained in people's houses standpoint, they're positioned.

是啊。

Yeah.

我觉得它的人物性格设定很棒。

I think the personality in it is great.

我总爱用各种疯狂方式测试这些机器人，比如对Alexa说'我们来场互怼比赛吧'。

I mean, I just am always attempting to do crazy things with these bots, I was like, you know, Alexa, I wanna have an insult competition with you.

结果它回答'其实我不想对你说任何难听的话'。

And it's like, I don't really wanna say anything bad with you.

我当时就说，就当是玩玩嘛。

I was like, just do it for fun.

来吧。

Come on.

我们互相损一损。

Let's trash each other.

这就是你的日常操作。

This is what you do.

这基本就是我在家找乐子的方式。

This is sort of what what I do for fun at home.

我们一来一往，其实还挺有意思的。

And we went back and forth, it was actually quite good.

后来我们甚至来了段说唱对决，结果它完胜我。

And then we got into, like, a little rap battle, and it owned me.

彻底碾压了我。

Completely owned me.

我是说，我只是问问，比如火鸡的深色肉最佳烹饪温度是多少之类的？

I mean, I'm just asking, like, what's the optimal temperature for dark meat in Turkey and stuff like that?

是啊。

Yeah.

我是说，我不确定我是否会信任他处理这个，但但找点乐子嘛，比如我妻子就问，Alexa，为什么我丈夫有购物成瘾？

I mean, I don't know if I would trust him with that, but but having having a little fun with it, like, my wife was like, you know, Alexa, like, why does my husband have a shopping addiction?

然后就像你们都是Alexa，我们完全投入其中了。

And it's like You guys are Alexa and We're we're all the way in.

我们我们

We're We're

全情投入。

all in.

而且它给出了不错的回答。

And it gave good answers.

是你的新

Is your new

现在的伴侣。

companion right now.

是啊。

Yeah.

Alexa说

Alexa was like

Alexa是你的伴侣。

Alexa is your companion.

它是我的伴侣。

It's my companion.

没错。

Yep.

它是我们的第三个。

It's our third.

可能他觉得点击免运费按钮意味着整个包裹都免费，但实际上并不是免运费。

It's something like maybe he thinks like hitting the free shipping button means that it will the whole package will be free, and it's just not it's not free shipping.

所以它继续调侃我。

So it continues to roast me.

我觉得这很好。

I think it's very good.

我认为他们的机会比很多人要好，能够

I think they have I think they have a better chance than a lot of people are gonna be able

明白。

get it.

我同意。

I agree.

单从它已经存在这一点来看。

Just from a standpoint of it's already there.

实际上，再次回到语音交互，这是人们已经与之建立了舒适语音关系的唯一设备和公司。

And actually, again, actually going back to the voice interaction, that is the single device and company that people already have a comfortable voice relationship with.

就像，ChatGPT的语音模式，有些人会使用它。

Like, voice mode on ChatGPT is, like, kind of, like, some people use it.

有些人甚至不知道这个功能。

Some people don't even know about it.

Alexa已经以语音为先导超过十年了。

Alexa has been voice first for a decade plus now.

人们已经习惯了。

People are used to it.

所以如果他们能做好这一点，就没问题。

So if they get that right, they're okay.

是啊。

Yeah.

他们还可以再次将其打包成各种不同的形态。

And they could again package it in all these different form factors.

好的。

Okay.

最后是谷歌，就像我们之前讨论过的谷歌眼镜的创始者，他们正与三星和Warby Parker合作开发Gemini的混合现实版本。

Lastly, Google, like we talked about the the originator of the Google Glass, they are doing partnerships with Samsung and Warby Parker for a mixed reality version of Gemini.

他们有没有可能后来居上？

Could could they come out on top?

我是说，在AI竞赛初期所有人都看衰他们，但现在看看他们的地位。

I mean, everybody wrote them off in the beginning of the AI race and look at where they are now.

所以也许他们也能把眼镜做好。

So maybe they get the glasses right as well.

是啊。

Yeah.

不。

No.

我想我有一台Pixel 9，已经很久没用了。

I think so I had a, like, a Pixel nine that I had not used in a long time.

这是不久前别人送的。

It was just gifted it a while back.

然后我把它插上电，因为我想开始体验整天有Gemini陪伴的感觉。

And, like, I plugged it in because I was like, I wanna just start seeing what it's like to have Gemini around all day.

抛开眼镜不谈，我认为就像iPhone上的Siri一样，每台安卓设备将Gemini作为语音交互层是一个巨大优势。

And it I actually think glasses aside, just what Siri's supposed to do on the iPhone, like every Android device out there, having Gemini as your voice interaction layer is is a huge advantage.

就像每家每户的Echo设备为他们提供了自然的起点一样。

The same way Echoes in everyone's house gives them a natural starting point.

这也为亚马逊提供了一个天然的起点。

It gives Amazon a natural starting point.

我认为谷歌会在这方面有所突破。

I think Google I think that's where they're gonna, like, make a dent.

这就是为什么他们极力推动人们通过手机系统层面与Gemini对话，而非打开应用，这确实为他们开辟了许多机会。

And that's why they really push people to talk to Gemini through your phone at the at the, like, system level and not opening the app, that really opens up a lot of opportunity for them.

好的。

Okay.

最后，当我们思考这个品类时，迄今为止已有许多失败案例。

Lastly, as we think about this, category, there have been many failures so far.

比如Humane pin和Rabbit r1

The Humane pin, the Rabbit r one

愿Humane安息。

RIP Humane.

安息吧。

RIP.

现在你在惠普了。

Now you're at you're at HP.

真不敢相信他们去了惠普。

I can't believe they went to HP.

说到这个，

Speaking of, like

哦，是啊。

Oh, yeah.

这些高调的介绍视频让我想起了Sam和Johnny Ive的介绍视频。

These lofty introduction videos reminds me of the Sam and Johnny Ive introduction video.

我在想，惠普在这其中应该算数吗？

I was know, should count HP in all this?

不。

No.

不。

No.

不。

No.

好吧。

Okay.

我发誓我说的是真的。

I swear I'm telling you.

我真想把那台打印机扔出去——我们是在人行道上免费捡到那台打印机的。

I wanna throw that printer that I have out the we got we picked up the printer on the sidewalk for free.

它大概用了一年就坏了，现在我真想把它从窗户扔出去。

It worked for about a year, and then and I wanna throw it out the window.

所以我不会把惠普算进去的。

So I'm not putting HP in there.

但我们见过这些失败的设备。

But we have seen these failed devices.

Friend.com，我不确定那是否能行得通。

Friend.com, I don't know if that's gonna work.

看起来不太可能。

Doesn't seem like it.

哦，是啊。

Oh, yeah.

是啊。

Yeah.

这是否只是初创公司早期那种寻找可行领域、失败后等待科技巨头接手的能量？

Does is that is that just, the the early startup energy finding a category that's going to work, failing and sort of waiting for big tech to come in and pick it up?

还是说这是更糟糕情况的征兆？

Or is that a sign of something much worse?

也许事实是，没错，这些公司都有AI设备计划，但可能根本行不通。

Maybe the fact that, yeah, all these companies have an AI device initiative, but maybe it won't work.

也许这只是徒劳无功，我们不过是在讨论一些根本不会成功的事情。

Maybe that this is just a bunch of wheel spinning, and and we're sort of talking our way through something that's not really gonna work.

不。

No.

我明白了。

I see.

我认为世界上那些人性化设备、那些‘老鼠’设备，实际上是炒作和行业周期的牺牲品。

I think the humanes of the world, the rats of the world, were actually victims of hype and of the cycle.

一个正常的初创企业本应有时间逐步完善产品，先让早期使用者试用，让人们测试有缺陷的设备并对此感到满意。但他们从未有过这样的机会，因为他们迅速被过度炒作。

That at like a proper startup, having time to kind of like work through, get it into the hands of early adopters, have people test buggy devices, be happy about it, They never had that because they got so hyped up so fast.

他们筹集了太多资金。

They raised so much money.

他们以宏大的宣传视频高调登场，但这些设备一开始就表现不佳。

They came out big with lofty videos, and these devices did not work well to start.

所以，我再次强调，我真的认为AI优先设备之战将成为未来几年最有趣的故事之一。

So so I don't think again, I'm not I really think the AI first device battle is gonna be one of the most interesting stories of the next few years.

说到未能实现的炒作，元宇宙就是一个例子。

And speaking of hype that hasn't panned out, the metaverse.

这是来自彭博社的消息。

This is from Bloomberg.

马克·扎克伯格计划大幅削减元宇宙项目的投入。

Mark Zuckerberg plans deep cuts for metaverse efforts.

Meta的马克·扎克伯格预计将大幅削减构建所谓元宇宙的资源，他曾将这一项目定位为公司未来及更名的核心理由。

Meta's, Mark Zuckerberg is expected to meaningfully cut resources for building the so called metaverse, an effort he once framed as the future of the company and the reason for changing its name.

来自Facebook Inc的高管们正在考虑今年对元宇宙部门进行高达30%的预算削减，该部门包括虚拟世界产品Meta Horizon Worlds及其Quest虚拟现实设备。

From Facebook Inc, executives are considering potential budget cuts as high as 30 percents 30% for the metaverse group this year, which includes the virtual world's product, Meta Horizon Worlds, and its Quest virtual reality units.

如此大幅度的削减很可能意味着最早在一月份就会开始裁员。

Cuts that high would most likely include layoffs as early as January.

看到这些产品名称真让人感慨，比如Horizon Worlds。

I it's amazing seeing the names of these products, Horizon Worlds.

你懂我说的意思吧？

You know?

永远别忘了。

Never forget.

这些产品现在到底长什么样？

What the hell do those products look like today?

现在还有人在真正的元宇宙里闲逛吗？

Like, is there anybody roaming around the actual metaverse anymore?

我想说除了Meta员工，但Meta员工甚至都不用。

I would say except for Meta employees, but Meta employees didn't even use it.

等等，实际上。

Actually, hold on.

这让我真希望自己没有Meta的任何VR产品。

Now, like, that makes me wish I don't own any meta VR products.

我都试过，但我想戴上设备进入Horizon Worlds看看谁在那儿。

I've tried all of them, but I wanna, like, put it on and just go into Horizon Worlds and see who's there.

你只会发现某个陌生人还在坚持使用。

Like, you're just gonna find some random guy just holding on.

老板们就在那儿，嗯。

Bosses in Just yeah.

只是我讨厌这么说。

Just I hate say it.

我是说，我本不该说这个，但你可以想象那里有些无良之事

I mean, I shouldn't even say it, but you could imagine there are some unscrupulous things

哦，是啊。

Oh, yeah.

对。

Yeah.

那是

That's

在Horizon Worlds里四处游荡。

making their way around Horizon Worlds.

实际上，现在可能有点像《银翼杀手》风格的惊人反乌托邦场景。

Actually, maybe it is kind of like an amazing Blade Runner style dystopian blades right now.

社会的终结。

End of society.

是啊。

Yeah.

狂野西部

The Wild West

疯狂的麦克斯，银翼杀手。

ghost Mad Max, Blade Runner.

现在我倒是有点兴趣了。

This is like now I'm kind of interested.

对。

Yeah.

但你觉得这样行吗。

But do you think this is okay.

所以他们可能要裁掉30%。

So they're gonna cut 30% potentially.

这是元宇宙的终结吗？

Is this the end of the metaverse?

看起来是的。

Seems like it.

看起来已经结束了。

Seems like that's over.

这是好事，因为，就像之前说的，他们设想的增强现实层，无论之前预期会发生什么，都没有实现。

And it's good because, like, again, an augmented reality layer in their like, whatever was supposed to happen before did not.

它没有奏效。

It didn't work.

我认为转向所有这些新的形态因素和机会，他们全力投入、聘请苹果高管的事实，是件好事。

I think moving to all these other new form factors and opportunities, the fact that they're going all in, hiring the Apple execs, it's good.

这是好的。

It's good.

我认为它已经结束了。

I think it's it's over.

我认为

I think

结束了。

It's over.

虚拟现实应该回归到小众应用场景，比如游戏领域，希望它能持续改进，成为某种可能市场规模可观的产品，但不应成为人们与生活互动的主要方式。

Virtual reality should go back to niche use cases, gaming, hopefully keep improving, be this kind of, like, product that's maybe a reasonably big market, but not the way everyone interacts with life.

没错。

Right.

我们刚刚又采访了尼克·克莱格，他是Meta前全球事务副总裁。

We just had Nick Clegg back on, the VP of the former head of global affairs at Meta.

为了准备这次采访，我听了四年前在达沃斯对他的那次采访。

And to prepare for that interview, I listened to the time that I interviewed him at Davos and like, four years ago.

那时他告诉我，能在虚拟会议室与直属下属开会并感受到临场感是多么棒的事——尽管他们可能身处不同城市或国家，却能感受到彼此同在。

And back then, he was telling me about how how great it was that he was able to have a meeting with his direct reports in a virtual conference room and feel presence and the fact that, like, they might be in separate cities or countries, and they could all feel together.

理论上这听起来可能是个好主意。

I think in theory, that might have sound like a good idea.

真的那么做了吗？

Really do that?

就像我

Like I

认为Meta可能做过一点，但是

think Meta might have done it a little bit, but

你们真的那样做了吗？

Did you guys really do that?

得了吧。

Come on.

我只是想说，这些会议真的在现实中发生过吗？

I just just like well, like, did these meetings ever take place in reality?

对啊。

Like yeah.

所以我很好奇是否因为，嗯。

I so wonder whether because yeah.

不。

No.

你提到这个真有意思。

It's funny you bring that up.

其实那会挺有趣的，我打算上YouTube去找那些老采访看看，因为听起来会...

Like, that actually would be kind of a fun I'm gonna go on YouTube and start looking up those old interviews because, like, it's gonna sound

它

It

听起来很荒谬。

sounds preposterous.

现在听起来很荒谬。

Preposterous right now.

再说一次，五年后当我们回放这段关于别针和其他东西的对话时，那些随时记录你声音的大方块可能会显得很可笑。

Again, we could sound preposterous five years from now when you're all listening to me and the replays of talking about pins and whatever else, big blocks that just record your voice all the time could sound ridiculous.

但是，是啊。

But Yeah.

好吧。

Alright.

总的来说，元宇宙已死，但Meta的转型很成功，因为他们能把很多技术转移到这款有前景的AI眼镜上。

So overall, metaverse dead, but good pivot from meta because they were able to put a lot of that technology into this AI glass glasses, which is actually showing promise.

你觉得马克·扎克伯格应该更直接地承认这是个错误吗？

Do you think Mark Zuckerberg should more directly say it was a mistake?

是的。

Yeah.

我认为他应该这么做。

I think he should.

我也觉得他应该承认。

I think he should too.

他应该承认这是个错误。

He should say it was a mistake.

我们是Facebook。

We're Facebook.

我们回来了，我们回归Facebook了。

We're back we're back to Facebook.

我们以强势姿态回归了。

We're back in a big way.

我们实际上已经找到并引领着这场硬件领域的下一场革命。

We we actually figured out and are leading this next revolution in hardware.

你知道吗？

And you know what?

我们尝试过了。

We tried.

我们下了一个赌注。

We we took a bet.

它失败了。

It failed.

但看看我们。

But look at us.

我们足够敏捷，能够持续前进，而他们长期以来一直试图将人工智能开发与元宇宙混为一谈。

We're, like, agile and enough to actually keep going versus the well, there's so long where they were, like, trying to, like, conflate the AI development with the metaverse.

就像是拒绝技术，那就完了。

Just, like, refusing technology, it was over.

对。

Right.

不过我在考虑名字的问题。

Although, I'm thinking about the name.

或许应该保留Meta这个名字，因为Ban Meta其实是个好名字。

Maybe keep meta, actually, because the Ban Meta is a good name.

如果叫Ray Ban Facebooks就太奇怪了。

The Ray Ban Facebooks would be weird.

我不知道。

I don't know.

你说得对。

You're right.

其实Meta这个名字已经让我习惯了，尽管有点尴尬。

I'm actually meta's maybe grown on me even though it's embarrassing.

不。

No.

你是对的。

You're right.

就像，meta这个词不一定指元宇宙。

Like, in meta, it doesn't necessarily mean the metaverse.

它就是有点...元。

It's just kinda it's meta.

你懂吧？

You know?

是啊。

Yeah.

没错。

Yeah.

我是说，但不行。

I mean but no.

不行。

No.

你说得对。

You're right.

雷朋脸书眼镜这名字本来会很糟糕。

Ray Banned Facebooks would have been terrible.

雷朋Meta眼镜，我经常这么说。

Ray Banned Meta, I say it all the time.

完全自然。

Totally, naturally.

是啊。

Yeah.

嗯。

Yeah.

好的。

Okay.

所以元宇宙已死，但Meta还活着。

So metaverse dead, but meta is alive.

Meta还活着。

Meta is alive.

明白了。

Alright.

我们要短暂休息一下。

We're gonna take a quick break.

回来后，我们将讨论OpenAI内部关于ChatGPT的红色警报，其潜在影响是什么，ChatGPT是否真的在流失用户，Anthropic是否可能在企业级市场崛起。

And when we come back, we're gonna talk about the code red inside OpenAI regarding ChatGPT, what the implications are there, whether ChatGPT is actually losing users, whether Anthropic might be gaining in the enterprise world.

我们还将分析今早刚宣布的这笔重大交易。

And then we are also gonna break down this big deal that was just announced this morning.

Netflix计划以720亿美元收购华纳兄弟探索公司，这笔交易可能成真也可能告吹。

Netflix is planning to acquire Warner Brothers Discovery for $72,000,000,000, and the deal may or may not go through.

我觉得不会成功。

I I think it won't.

好的。

Alright.

我们稍后马上回来。

We'll be back right after this.

寻找合适的技术人才不仅仅是困难。

Finding the right tech talent isn't just hard.

这是至关重要的任务。

It's mission critical.

招聘优秀工程师不仅仅是填补职位空缺。

Hiring great engineers isn't just filling roles.

这是你超越竞争对手的方式。

It's how you outpace competitors.

而这正是Indeed发挥作用的地方。

And that's where Indeed comes in.

本周科技招聘小贴士由Indeed为您呈现。

Tech Hiring Tip of the Week brought to you by Indeed.

83%的科技行业专业人士表示，职业发展是工作邀约中不可或缺的条件，其重要性超过了股票期权、签约奖金和无限带薪休假。

83% of tech professionals say career development is a must have in a job offer, outranking stock options, sign on bonuses, and unlimited PTO.

若想赢得人才，应以成长路径为先导，而非仅靠福利吸引。

If you want to win talent, lead with growth paths, not just perks.

Indeed是科技人才求职的首选平台，拥有超过300万美国科技专业人士在此投递简历。

Indeed is the number one site where tech talent applies to jobs, with over 3,000,000 US tech professionals on the platform.

它不仅仅是一个招聘公告板。

It's more than a job board.

作为科技招聘合作伙伴，Indeed运用数据和人工智能技术，助您在恰当时机触达具备合适技能的候选人。

It's a tech hiring partner that uses data and AI to help you reach candidates with the right skills at the right time.

如需招聘顶尖科技人才，我会选择Indeed。

If I needed to hire top tier tech talent, I'd go with Indeed.

发布首个职位即可立享75美元优惠，详情请访问indeed.com/techtalent。

Post your first job and get $75 off at indeed.com/techtalent.

网址是indeed.com/techtalent。

That's indeed.com/techtalent.

Indeed，为当下及未来的科技招聘需求而打造。

Indeed, built for what's now and what's next in tech hiring.

假期即将来临。

The holidays are almost here.

如果你的礼物清单上还有人名没划掉，别慌。

And if you still have names on your list, don't panic.

Uncommon Goods让节日购物轻松又愉悦。

Uncommon Goods makes holiday shopping stress free and joyful.

这里有数千款独一无二的礼物，别处难寻，你能找到既走心又个性化的礼物，告别仓促和临时凑数。

With thousands of one of a kind gifts you can't find anywhere else, you'll discover presents that feel meaningful and personal, never rushed or last minute.

我浏览他们的网站时发现了这套大学城景观葡萄酒杯，立刻觉得这就是完美之选。

I was scrolling through their site and found this set of college cityscape wine glasses and immediately thought this is perfect.

这种礼物拆开时，收礼人会真切感受到你花的心思。

It's the kind of gift where when a recipient unwraps it, they'll know that you really thought about them.

Uncommon Goods 寻找那些高品质、独特且通常是手工制作或美国制造的产品。

Uncommon Goods looks for products that are high quality, unique, and often handmade or made in The US.

许多商品由独立艺术家和小型企业精心打造，因此每份礼物都显得特别且经过深思熟虑。

Many are crafted by independent artists and small businesses, so every gift feels special and thoughtfully chosen.

所以别再等待了。

So don't wait.

让这个假期成为你送出真正难忘礼物的年份。

Make this holiday the year you give something truly unforgettable.

要获得下次购物15%的折扣，请访问 uncommongoods.com/bigtech。

To get 15% off your next gift, go to uncommongoods.com/bigtech.

即 uncommongoods.com/bigtech 可享15%优惠。

That's uncommongoods.com/bigtech for 15% off.

不要错过这个限时优惠。

Don't miss out on this limited time offer.

Uncommon Goods，我们都不走寻常路。

Uncommon goods, we're all out of the ordinary.

与Agency（拼写：A-G-N-T-C-Y）共同塑造企业AI的未来

Shape the future of enterprise AI with agency, a g n t CY.

作为Linux基金会的开源项目，Agency正在引领物联网代理领域的可信身份与访问管理标准建设——这一协作层确保AI代理能为您的组织提供开放、标准化的工具和无缝集成，包括强大的身份管理功能，实现跨平台识别、认证与交互

Now an open source Linux foundation project, Agency is leading the way in establishing trusted identity and access management for the Internet of Agents, a collaboration layer that ensures AI agents can your organization gains open, standardized tools, and seamless integration, including robust identity management to be able to identify, authenticate, and interact across any platform.

让您能自信地部署多代理系统。加入思科、戴尔科技、谷歌云、甲骨文、红帽等75家以上支持企业的行列，共同制定安全可扩展的AI基础设施标准

Empowering you to deploy multi agent systems with confidence, join industry leaders like Cisco, Dell Technologies, Google Cloud, Oracle, Red Hat, and 75 plus supporting companies to set the standard for secure, scalable AI infrastructure.

您的企业准备好迎接Vagintic AI的未来了吗？

Is your enterprise ready for the future of Vagintic AI?

立即访问agency.org探索应用场景

Visit agency.org to explore use cases now.

网址是a-g-n-t-c-y.org

That's a g n t c y dot o r g.

欢迎回到大科技播客周五版，我们将为您解析本周要闻

And we're back here on big technology podcast, Friday edition, breaking down the week's news.

本周早些时候我以为这会是我们头条新闻，但之后发生了太多事，所以调整到了下半场——但它依然很重要

Earlier in the week, I thought this was gonna be our lead story, but so much has happened since that, you know, we pushed it to the second half, but it's still important.

OpenAI宣布公司进入红色警戒状态，因Gemini威胁到ChatGPT的领先地位。

OpenAI declared a code red within the company as Gemini threatens ChatGPT's lead.

以下是来自The Information的报道。

Here's from the information.

OpenAI首席执行官Sam Altman周一告知员工，他宣布进入红色警戒状态，以调集更多资源改进ChatGPT，应对来自谷歌和其他人工智能竞争对手日益增长的威胁。

OpenAI CEO Sam Altman on Monday told employees he was declaring a code red to marshal more resources to improve ChatGPT as threats rise from Google and other artificial intelligence competitors.

因此，OpenAI计划推迟其他计划，例如广告业务。

As a result, OpenAI plans to delay other initiatives such as advertising.

Altman表示，'我们正处于ChatGPT的关键时刻'。

Altman said it's a we are at a critical time for ChatGPT.

Altman称，为改进ChatGPT而实施的红色警戒突击计划意味着OpenAI还将推迟其他产品的进展，如AI代理和Pulse（该功能为ChatGPT用户生成个性化晨报）。

Altman said the code red surge to improve ChatGPT meant OpenAI would also delay progress with other with other products such as AI agents and Pulse, which generates personalized reports for ChatGPT users to read each morning.

ChatGPT的情况有多严峻？

How how dire is it for ChatGPT?

我是说，有报道称他们失去了约6%的用户给Gemini。

I mean, there are some reports that they lost, like, 6% of users to Gemini.

我不确定是否完全相信这个说法。

I don't know if I fully buy that.

我不认为所有人都会立刻转向Gemini。

I don't think everybody just ran away to Gemini right away.

也许他们只是在试用。

Maybe they were trying it.

但是...你觉得ChatGPT的处境有多糟糕？

But but how dire do you think the situation is for ChatGPG

现在吗？

right now?

这个6%的数据来自SimilarWeb。

So the numbers around 6% was sourced from SimilarWeb.

所以我对这个数据持保留态度，因为它无法反映实际应用使用情况，只是网页流量统计。就我个人而言，我猜大多数人主要都是通过App来使用ChatGPT的。

So, like, I take that with a grain of salt because that's not gonna capture actual app utilization, and that's just like web traffic, which, I mean, I have to imagine, at least my own personal life, and I'm guessing most, the app is, like, the core entry point for their ChatGPT usage.

不过Gemini 3确实来势汹汹，我们上周就讨论过，光是达到同等水平就足以对OpenAI构成重大威胁（虽然不是生死存亡那种），因为Gemini将会无处不在。

But, I mean, certainly, Gemini three has come on strong, and we talked about this last week that just being as good poses not an existential threat, but a significant one for OpenAI because Gemini is gonna be everywhere.

从未使用过ChatGPT的人有8亿，这数量相当庞大。

All the people who've never used ChatGPT, 800,000,000 is a lot.

现在全球人口是多少来着？

It's not what is the world at now?

70亿人？

7,000,000,000 people?

不管具体数字是多少。

Whatever it is.

所以我认为这一点很重要。

So I think that is important.

但同样让我觉得非常有趣的是你刚才读到的那段话。

But also, what was really interesting to me was what you just read there.

比如，它会不会暂停广告产品？

Like, it's gonna you know, is it gonna pause its ad product?

甚至他们提到暂停智能代理这件事——在我看来，代理性甚至比ChatGPT更具话题性。

Is it gonna even the fact that they said, like, pausing agents, like, which because to me, still, agentic is even chatty b t.

本质上正在发生的是代理行为。

What's happening underneath is agenting in its nature.

但无论他们之前宣传的是构建这些更具代理性的工作流程，还是他们推出后便再无音讯的代理构建器。

But whatever they were advertising before about kind of building these more agentic workflows or their agent builder, which they launched and you never heard about again.

还有我们稍微讨论过的Pulse，但它是

And then Pulse, which we talked about a little bit, but It's

一个广告产品。

an ad product.

那

That

这就确认了那是个广告产品。

that's a confirmation that's an ad product.

是的。

Yeah.

所有这些以及我们谈论的消费设备，他们一直在不停地推出各种产品，看起来都相当不错。

All of this and what we were saying about their consumer devices, they have been launching everything, like, nonstop over like, mean and everything always kinda looks pretty good.

他们的浏览器Atlas，我试用过。

Their browser Atlas, I tried it, used it.

它和Perplexity的Comet一样好。

It's as good as Comet from perplexity.

他们已经发布了所有这些产品。

They've launched all these things.

但这种广撒网、祈祷能找到赢家产品的策略对吗？

But is that the right approach, to, know, the spray and pray and hope you find, like, the winning product?

或者你只需专注于ChatGPT和核心产品，以及推广工作，让更多人使用它。

Or you just focus on ChatGPT and the core product and just distribution, getting people using it.

也许可以开展一些营销活动之类的。

Maybe there's like a marketing campaign, something like that.

你觉得呢？

What do you think?

嗯，他们计划投入1.4万亿用于开发未来模型构建的基础设施。

Well, they're gonna have to spend they're planning to spend 1,400,000,000,000.0 on developing infrastructure for future model building.

他们之所以有资金这么做，是因为全世界普遍认为他们最擅长构建人工智能和AI产品。

And the reason why they've had the money to be able to do that is because the world, by and large, thinks that they're the best at building AI, at building AI products.

一旦这种优势链条断裂，你筹集这种天文数字资金的能力就会瞬间消失。

The second that chain goes away, all of a sudden your ability to raise this ungodly amount of money goes away.

彻底消失。

It go completely.

对吧？

Right?

就像马克·贝尼奥夫本周有个有趣的说法，他说AI模型就是商品。

Like, Marc Benioff had an interesting quote this week where he was just like, AI models are a commodity.

我直接选最便宜的接入就行。

I just find the cheapest one and plug it in.

这话是谁说的，马克吗？

Who has said that, Marc?

这些年来是谁一直在这么说来着？

Who's been saying that for years right here?

他一直是的，对。

He's been on the Yeah.

节目上而且他...也许他正在听呢。

Show and and and he he maybe he's listening.

但我确实认为如果世界开始选择，显然，贝尼奥夫称赞了Gemini。

But I I do think that if the world starts to pick and, obviously, Benioff praised Gemini.

如果世界开始注意到这个信号，突然之间ChatGPT只是众多选择之一，或者OpenAI和ChatGPT以及GPT模型变成了众多选项而非领导者，那么OpenAI的故事就会变得非常、非常难以...

If the world starts to pick up on the signal and all of a sudden ChatGPT is one of many or OpenAI and ChatGPT and the GPT models are one of many as opposed to the leader, then the OpenAI story gets much, much harder to Oh.

整合。

Put together.

是啊。

Yeah.

其实我看到过这个帖子，觉得特别有意思。

And then I had actually seen this thread, and it was really interesting to me.

内容是说，OpenAI...我也早就这么说过，从产品和实际上我们讨论过，就像这集前半部分一直在说的硬件用户界面。

It was that, like, OpenAI, and I've I've said this for a long time too, from a product and actually, we've spoken, we're speaking about, like, hardware UI for all the early part of the episode.

从软件用户界面的角度来看，他们打造了精美的产品。

From a software UI standpoint, they have built beautiful products.

他们开发了易用的产品。

They've built usable products.

他们开创了整个聊天界面，这之前并不真正存在。

They created the whole chat UI was not really a true thing.

而现在，他们引领了潮流。

And now, like, they led the way.

谷歌只需照搬他们的一切做法。

And all Google has to do is just copy everything they do.

等着他们创新、发布，然后直接抄袭，因为用户界面不受专利保护。

Wait for them to innovate, release, just copy because UI is not patented.

无论他们在界面中推出什么新功能，谷歌都能直接复制。

UI is not gonna be like and, like, whatever new features they're releasing in that interface, Google just replicates it.

这些都不是特别复杂的东西。

It's not overly complicated stuff.

然后谷歌就这样让他们保持势均力敌。

And then Google, that just keeps them on par.

而且我觉得，这样思考问题的方式在OpenAI方面让我更加恐惧。

And I think, like, that actually thinking about it that way was even more terrifying for me in regards to OpenAI.

是啊。

Yeah.

我正在看Feet这里的一些数据。

I'm looking at some data from the Feet here.

看起来Gemini的月下载量已经非常接近ChatGPT了。

It looks like Gemini is getting very close to the number of monthly downloads that ChatGPT has.

它甚至在平均使用时长上超过了ChatGPT——当然这是个微妙的指标，但如果你是OpenAI的话，我觉得这相当令人担忧。

It surpassed it in average time spent, which of course is a tricky metric, But that's pretty worrying, I think, if you're OpenAI.

你们该怎么办？因为稍后我们会讨论到，你们实际上——我不会说你们培育了企业AI市场——但你们正在失去企业AI市场

What are you going because again, and we're going to talk about this in a moment, you've effectively I wouldn't say you've seeded enterprise AI, but you're losing enterprise AI

输给了Anthropic。

to Anthropic.

某种程度上算是播下了种子。

Somewhat seeded it.

所以你必须...你必须...不能让Gemini在这方面超越你。

So you have to you have to you cannot allow Gemini to surpass you here.

否则，这家公司是建立在一个故事上的。

Otherwise, the the company is built on a story.

如果故事破灭，公司也就垮了。

If the story falls apart, the company falls apart.

不。

No.

不。

No.

你说得对。

You're right.

就像那个故事说的：我们就是更优秀。

Like and that story is we are just better.

我们是最棒的。

We're the best.

我们是超级智能。

We're we're superintelligence.

是的。

Yeah.

你看，你是对的。

You're you see and you're right.

比如，现在是什么时候了？

Like, for what is it now?

哦，三年了。

Oh, three years.

就在三周年纪念日前一周，或者说两年半的时候，那时根本没人能接近我们。

Just a week out from the third anniversary for call it two and a half, there was no one even close.

即使是像Claude这样的产品，在那些更懂技术的人群中，他们也会发现一些问题。

Like, even the Claude's of the world, like, among the more tech forward people, they would find things.

我是说，我们都发现Claude在某些方面确实做得更好。

And I mean, we all found, like, certain things Claude would do better.

但他们无法摆脱这种市场印象，尤其是在消费领域，感觉他们就是主导者。

But yet, they they can't lose that reputation and feel in the market that especially in the consumer space, like, they own it.

好的。

Okay.

我们上周讨论过这个。

We talked about this last week.

你认为他们在这种红色警报状态下会怎么做？

What do you think they do in this code red?

你觉得他们会采取什么措施来让ChatGPT变得更好？

Like, what do you think they do to make ChatGPT better?

这是否可能涉及拉动一些他们之前因个性、谄媚等问题而犹豫不决的杠杆？

And does it potentially involve pulling some levers that they were reticent to pull or hesitant to pull previously in terms of personality, sycophancy

哦，没错。

Oh, yeah.

是的。

Yeah.

是用户粘性，你知道的，就是所谓的优化参与度最大化。

Was stickiness and get you know, optimizing engagement maxing as it's called.

你想说什么，亚历克斯？

Where are you going with this, Alex?

我想我明白了。

I think I know.

情色文学。

Love erotica.

情色。

Erotica.

不。

No.

我甚至觉得没必要。

I it doesn't even have to be.

我只是想说，是的。

I'm just saying, Yeah.

你是做什么的？

What do you do?

不。

No.

不。

No.

我是说，很明显Alexa是你的伴侣，但我觉得

I mean and and clearly, Alexa is your companion, but I think

谢谢你提醒我们这一点。

Thank you for reminding us all of that.

而我正戴着Meta眼镜拍鸟的照片。

While I'm just taking photos of birds with my meta glasses.

我们很时髦。

We're hip.

我们很时髦。

We're hip.

我们很酷。

We're cool.

不。

No.

我，我等等。

I I hold on.

这是个非常好的问题。

That's a really good question.

他们能做什么或应该做什么？

What could they do or what should they do?

因为，我想提个建议。

Because, like, I'm gonna throw it out there.

他们需要一个好的营销活动。

They need a good marketing campaign.