Guy's Take_103 - 比特币这次肯定完蛋了

我们再也见不到比特币跌破10万美元了。

We will never see Bitcoin below a $100,000 again.

我不知道这话已经被说过多少次了。

I don't know how many times this has been posted.

自从比特币首次突破10万美元以来，已经过去一年半了，我们却还停留在这里。

Since Bitcoin first crossed a $100,000, and it's like a year and a half later, we're still right here.

我们刚刚暴跌跌破10万美元。

We just crashed below a $100,000.

这到底是怎么回事？

What the hell is going on?

这是什么横盘行情？

What is this crab market?

为什么比特币在下跌？

Why is Bitcoin going down?

在法定货币混乱的当下，这明明是世界上最保值、最具确定性的资产啊？

This is literally the most valuable and highest assurance money in the world right now during fiat chaos?

怎么会这样？

How?

它怎么可能不涨呢？

How could it not be going up?

这次真的不一样了吗？

Is this time actually different?

是往坏的方向发展吗？

In a bad way?

因为如果没有增长，只是停滞不前，那它就是在走向死亡。

Because if it's not growing, if it's just stagnating, then it's dying.

比特币终于死了吗？

Is Bitcoin finally dead?

我觉得是时候做一期《Guy's Take》了。

I think it's time for a Guy's Take episode.

比特币领域的佼佼者登上了Audible。

The best in Bitcoin made Audible.

我是盖伊·斯旺，这里是《比特币可听》。

I am Guy Swan, and this is Bitcoin Audible.

大家好，最近怎么样？

What is up, guys?

欢迎回到《比特币可听》。

Welcome back to Bitcoin Audible.

我是盖伊·斯旺，一个比你认识的任何人都读过更多比特币资料的人，而今天比特币已经死了。

I am Guy Swan, the guy who has read more about Bitcoin than anybody else you know, and Bitcoin is dead today.

这是最糟糕的。

It's the worst.

这是最糟糕的。

It's the worst.

我讨厌它。

I hate it.

你知道，我们曾有过一段美好的时光，但显然它已被控制并受到操纵，再也无法回头了。

You know, we had a really good run, but clearly, it's captured and being manipulated, and there's no coming back.

我是说，就在我说话这会儿，价格已经跌破10万美元了。

I mean, we're under a $100,000 as I speak.

在录制这段内容时，比特币的美元价格还只有五位数。

While this is being recorded, Bitcoin is only five digits in dollar price.

而显然，正常情况应该是六位数。

And obviously, normal is six digits.

这到底是怎么回事？

So what the hell is happening?

先快速感谢一下我们的赞助商。

A quick shout out to our sponsors.

本期节目由ledin.i0提供支持——他们提供比特币抵押贷款服务；以及Synonym公司——他们开发了出色的协议栈，旨在重新去中心化网络的所有核心功能。

The show is brought to you by ledin.i0 for Bitcoin backed loans, as well as Synonym, who have built an incredible protocol stack to re decentralize all the main functions of the web.

详情请访问pubkey.app。

Check that out at pubkey.app.

另外我必须推荐Gitchroma的夜用眼镜。

Then I have to recommend the nightshades from Gitchroma.

这种蓝绿光阻隔眼镜能帮你调节荷尔蒙平衡。

These are blue and green light blocking glasses to get your hormones right.

我每晚都在使用。

I use them every night.

如果你经常面对电子屏幕，真的应该备一副。

And if you're working on screens, you've really gotta get some.

使用优惠码Bitcoin Audible可享9折优惠。

There's a 10% discount with code Bitcoin Audible.

最后是人权基金会，他们有一份非常出色的金融自由报告通讯。

And lastly, the Human Rights Foundation, they have an extraordinary financial freedom report newsletter.

这是一个不可替代的新闻来源，涵盖所有关于自由斗争的动态，以及实际捍卫自由的工具——比特币和隐私工具。

It's an irreplaceable news source for everything that's going around for the fight for freedom, and then the tools, the Bitcoin and privacy tools to actually defend it.

如果你查看描述部分，会发现一个链接可以探索所有这些内容，每期节目里都能找到。

If you look right down in the description, there's a link to explore any of this, and you'll find it on every episode.

其实我认为，我们大概四五期前读到的关于静默IPO的那篇文章，对当前情况提出了非常有力的论点，至少是一种框架性的解释。

I actually think the silent IPO piece that we read a few four or five episodes back now, I guess, is a really strong is a really strong argument or at least a framing as to what's going on here.

因为我们在市场上看到的是大量新增的流动性，真正令人难以置信的是其规模——新增流动性的数量之巨。

Because what we can see in the market is there's just a massive amount of new liquidity, and what's really kind of insane about it is the is the scope is how much new liquidity there is.

市场上出现了多少来自2-7年账龄UTXO的新抛售——这些UTXO现在基本具备了退出的流动性，我认为主要来自传统金融机构或大型投资实体，以及那些在流动性不足时就已建立长期头寸的人。

How how much new selling there is in this market from the two to seven year age range of UTXOs that now basically have the liquidity to exit, which I think is basically a lot of TradFi or general, like, large, larger investment entities and or people who have made a long term position in this before there was enough liquidity to get out.

但真正疯狂的是市场正在吸收这些抛压。

But the really crazy thing is that the market is soaking this up.

我们仍处于9万美元区间，却面临着天量抛售。

We're still in the $90,000 range, and we have opened to a huge amount of selling.

尽管当前形势令人沮丧，但这些抛售看起来都不像是恐慌性抛售。

And despite how frustrating this feels right now, none of it seems like panic selling.

完全没有'我必须逃离这个市场'的迹象。

None of it seems like, oh, I gotta get out of this market.

更没有'比特币已死'的氛围。

Bitcoin's dead.

恰恰相反，我们甚至看到Square刚刚启动了相关业务。

Quite to the to the contrary, we have, like, Square just launched.

昨晚我去了Crafty's参加帮派之夜聚会，用Square终端闪电般地买了两杯酒。

Like, last night, I went out to Crafty's to gang night for the huddle up gang night, and I bought two drinks with lightning through the Square terminal.

问题是，我看不出任何本质上的区别。

Here's the thing, I can't see any fundamentals that are that aren't.

甚至不是它们变得更糟，而是它们相比一年或一年半前并没有显著改善。

It's not even that they aren't worse, it's that they aren't significantly better than where they are, where they were a year or a year and a half ago.

环境、监管透明度、对其作为未来必然组成部分的普遍认知、技术及应用能力——虽然作为比特币本位者说这话很痛苦，看着资产法币价值大幅缩水，但日常使用确实越来越方便了。

The environment, the regulatory clarity, the general recognition of it as an inevitable part of the future, the technology and the various capacity to use it, and I say this as someone who's on a Bitcoin standard and literally has to suffer these dips knowing that, like, literally the capital that I have available to me just went down in fiat terms substantially, but it is easier to use constantly.

就像我说的，我刚用比特币在Steve的酒吧和咖啡店消费——那是我最爱的早餐去处，因为他们只提供超级干净的食物。

Like I said, I I just went out and bought drinks with it at Steve's bar and the coffee place, the the place that I one of my favorite places out there to go get coffee and breakfast because they don't have they're just super clean food.

他们根本不用谷物或种子油那些垃圾原料。

They don't have any, like, grains or seed oils or any of that crap.

我已经告知店主，打算等他们不忙时再去拜访。

I already let the owner know, and I'm just gonna go back there at a time when they're not super busy.

他们当时就爽快答应了。

And they were just like, yeah.

我们...我们安排一下吧。

Let's let's set it up.

听起来很棒。

That sounds great.

他们向来都很支持。

They've always just kind of been on board.

我时不时就会和店主聊比特币。

I've had chats with the owner from time to time about Bitcoin.

他每次看到我穿比特币T恤时，都会时不时跟我提起这事。

He's brings it up to me every once in while when he sees me wearing a Bitcoin shirt.

这正逐渐变得平常。

It's becoming normal.

我认为你在市场上看到的，特别是我们观察到的现象是——传统金融（TradFi）在抛售利润。

And I think what you're seeing I think what we're seeing specifically in the market is the fact that TradFi sells profits.

而我们正经历这场巨大的新流动性事件。

And we are having this massive new liquidity event.

我认为当你进入新市场时，涌入的并不纯粹是流动性。

And I think when you open up into new markets, it's not purely liquidity coming in.

关键在于现在已有足够流动性，让那些已获200%利润的人可以套现。

It's the fact that there's now enough liquidity for people who do have already have a 200% profit in this.

他们现在拥有数十亿美元投资的退出流动性。

They they now have the liquidity to get out in the realm of billions of dollars worth of investments.

实际上，昨晚我和Steve在玩Hold'l Up游戏时还讨论过——因为他刚宣布/发布了UTXO。

In fact, Steve and I were talking about it last night at the Hold'l Up game that he because he just they just announced or he just released the utxo.

UTX Oracle的实时数据流覆盖了整个区块链和内存池中的所有交易，并通过UTX Oracle识别所有比特币转账的美元金额，然后仅通过分析节点数据就能推算出比特币的美元价格。

Live feed for the UTX Oracle and basically the entire blockchain and all of the all of the transactions that are coming in in the mempool, and then also aligning it with the UTX Oracle of recognizing all of the dollar the even dollar amounts of Bitcoin being sent, and then extrapolating out using the UTX Oracle thing, extrapolating out excuse me, the the dollar price of Bitcoin just from looking at all of the node data.

但最酷的是——如果你还没看过那个可视化展示——它真的非常非常震撼。

But the reason it was just a really, really cool visualization if you haven't seen it.

他提到的一个惊人现象是：几乎每分钟都有1亿美元甚至20亿美元级别的交易发生。

But one of the really cool things and the thing that he was mentioning and we were just kind of talking about is how wild it is that just like every minute or so, there's a multiple there's like a $100,000,000 transaction, a $2,000,000,000 transaction.

这条链上每分钟流动的资金量令人咋舌。

There's a staggering amount of money being moved on this chain every minute.

就像，我们不是在闲聊，我们每天经手20亿美元。

Like like, we're not talking, like, oh, we move $2,000,000,000 a day.

我是说，每一区块都是如此。

I mean, like, every block.

每天都有数亿美元在流动，有时甚至达到数十亿。

There's hundreds of millions of dollars being moved around, sometimes billions.

我是说，我刚才就提到了，就在此刻。

I mean, I just brought it up, like, right now.

刚收到一笔1.18亿美元的交易，1500万美元的交易，500万美元的交易。

A $118,000,000 transaction just came in, $15,000,000 transaction, $5,000,000 transaction.

这，这就是实时动态。

Like, this is this is live.

我刚经手了1520万美元。

Like, I've just $15,200,000.

资金就这样源源不断地流入。

It just this just is constantly streaming in.

只要等上几秒，又会有数百万美元的交易发生。

And if I give it a few seconds, another multimillion dollar transaction occurs.

想想看吧。

Just think about that.

太疯狂了。

That's wild.

这简直疯狂至极。

That is absolutely wild.

470万美元。

$4,700,000.

这个系统正在以无需许可、完全去政治化的方式在全球范围内结算如此巨额的资本。

That this system is settling that much capital globally, permissionlessly, and in in a completely apolitical way.

在这里，你的司法管辖区无关紧要。

One where it does not matter your jurisdiction.

就这么简单完成了结算。

It's simply settled.

940万美元。

$9,400,000.

这正在成为一个合法化的全球资本网络。

This is simply becoming a legitimized global capital network.

我认为，当我们像过去一年左右那样涌入巨额流动性时，如果用整个'静默IPO'式的思维框架来看——就像那个心理图景——1320万美元。

And I think when we break into an enormous amount of liquidity like we have in the last year or so, if we frame it in the whole silent IPO style thinking, like that that mental picture, $13,200,000.

如果用这种思维框架来看，我认为经历一个延长的整合期是合理的。

If we frame it in that thinking, I think it makes sense that we go through an extended consolidation period.

而且，因为我们正在见证机构采用，我们面对的是一个持久的机构买盘——天啊。

And also, because we're looking at institutional adoption, we're looking at a prolonged institutional bid holy crap.

6600万。

66,000,000.

由于我们面对的是一个持久的机构买盘，我认为这也意味着——你知道——我们非常缺乏耐心，而比特币通常决策得非常非常快。

Because we're looking at a prolonged institutional bid, I think it also makes sense that, you know, we're very impatient, and Bitcoin usually makes decisions very very quickly.

比如，如果你回顾2013年的泡沫时期，当它开始上涨时，就一路飙升根本停不下来。

Like, if you go back to, like, the 2,013 bubble, when it started on its run and it was just going up at all, it just started to run.

简直疯狂到极具侵略性。

Like, it was just insanely aggressive.

当时存在严重的FOMO（错失恐惧症），整个过程从开始到结束基本上不到六个月。

There was insane FOMO, and the entire thing happened in basically under, like, six months from start to finish.

然后就是这些漫长的、毫无进展的空档期，直到下一次开始。

And then it was just these long draw nothing periods between before the next one.

但即便如此，那段时间也不算长，相当短暂。

But, like, even then, it wasn't even like a full like, it was a pretty short period.

或者我

Or I

猜那里曾经有过

guess there was a there

在2013年之前有过一次。

was one before the 2013.

所以就像2012年2月那次，之后紧接着2013年又来了一次。

So it's like there's the 02/2012, and then it turned right around and did another one in 2013.

但基本上，所有事情都以更高的频率在发生。

But basically, everything was happening at a vastly higher frequency.

我认为真正的情况是，这些下跌遇到大量买入，加上我们给市场注入的流动性，导致一切都被拉长了，可以说是被强行拉长。

And I think really what we're seeing is these dips are being met with so much purchasing when with the liquidity that we've added to the markets is that everything's just being drawn out, like aggressively drawn out.

过去需要两三天的事情，现在实际上要两三周。

Things that used to take two or three days literally now just take two to three weeks.

而持续数周的趋势将被拉长到数月之久。

And the multiple week trends are going to be stretched out over multiple months.

总的来说，我认为我们正面临严重的经济疲软。

And then just in general, I think we're entering into a ton of economic weakness.

我想我们拥有这样的资产。

I think we have, you know, assets like this.

当人们需要钱时就会抛售流动资产，而且有很多迹象表明我们正处在房地产泡沫的顶峰。

Liquid assets get sold when people need money, and I think there's a lot of indications that we're reaching the peak of a housing bubble.

我们真的不知道接下来会发生什么。

We don't really know what's going to happen on the other side of this.

经济已经不得不消化大量关税成本。

The economy has had to eat up a bunch of tariff costs.

我认为特朗普最近的言行都表明共和党显得有些绝望。

And I think everything about, like, what Trump has been saying and doing recently is just showing that the Republican Party just feels a little desperate.

特朗普说他们要给消费者发放关税红利，这很荒谬，因为消费者才是支付关税的人，而政府还负债累累。

I think Trump is like, has said they're gonna give out a dividend, a tariff dividend to the consumer, which is ridiculous because the consumer is paying the tariffs, and the government is in debt.

政府没有盈利。

The government doesn't run a profit.

这里根本没有什么红利。

There's no dividend here.

他提出给每人发2000美元，就是想让大家觉得这是个好主意，让一切看起来没那么昂贵痛苦，好掩盖形势从未好转也永远不会好转的事实——因为根本没人真正解决问题。

He's just offering to pay everybody $2,000 to make them make it feel like this was a good idea and that this just didn't make everything more expensive and more painful, and to deal with the fact that things don't look very good as they never have and they were never going to because nobody's actually fixing anything.

我认为除了我们正在进入或已经进入的比特币时代/篇章外，还存在巨大的经济不确定性，这将使当前状况再延续一段时间。

And I think there's just an enormous amount of economic uncertainty on top of kind of the era or chapter that we are moving into or have moved into with Bitcoin that's just going to continue to prolong this for a little while.

因为涌入市场的大部分流动性都不会快速流动。

Because the overwhelming majority of the liquidity coming into the market isn't going to move fast.

它会慢慢来，逐步建立仓位，并利用许多人会感到恐慌的心理优势，这些人很快就会被淘汰出局，或者他们会过度杠杆化自己。

It's gonna take its time, and it's gonna build a position, and it's gonna take advantage of the fact that a whole bunch of people are gonna get scared, and they're gonna get washed out really quick, or they're going to over leverage themselves.

但如果你将这次波动与比特币历史上的重大波动相比，或是与牛市中的正常回调、或是横盘市场相比，这次根本不算什么。

But if you look at this move compared to major moves in Bitcoin's past, or just normal pullbacks during a bull market, or just a sideways market, this is not.

这没什么大不了的。

This is no big deal.

对于比特币的行为模式来说，这相当普通。

This is pretty run of the mill for how Bitcoin behaves.

只不过这次用了四个月来演绎，而不是三周。

It's literally just taking four months to play out as opposed to three weeks.

现在我认为当牛市真正启动时，它的速度会比现在快得多。

Now I do want think when the bull market, like, really kind of kicks off is it will move quite a bit faster than this.

但我仍然认为它会以更慢的速度移动，并继续让人困惑和沮丧，因为越是看似形成的模式，实际上越不可能再次重演。

But I do still think it will move a lot slower, and it will continue to confuse and frustrate people because the the more a pattern seems to form, the less the pattern is going to is actually going to play out again.

如今市场上的资金性质已经不同——这是一种不同的心态，参与大规模购买的是与2017年泡沫甚至2020-2021年泡沫时期完全不同的机构、人群或视角。

And the money that is in the market today is just different money than it's a it's a different mentality, and it's a different type of institution or person or perspective that's doing enormous a lot of the purchasing today as opposed to the 2017 bubble and even the twenty twenty, twenty twenty one bubble.

我认为除了市场本质已变、参与者也已完全不同之外，还有太多经济逆风因素，这些都阻碍了当前状态下市场获得强劲动力。

And I think there's just too much economic headwind on top of the fact that this market is very different and the players are now very different as well, preventing this from actually gaining a lot of momentum in our current state.

但对我来说，这感觉就像是比特币的本色演出，老实说。

But to me, this doesn't feel like anything except Bitcoin being Bitcoin, honestly.

本节目由ledden.io赞助播出。

This show is brought to you by ledden.io.

如果你在不想出售比特币的糟糕时刻需要法币，不妨了解一下安全简单的比特币抵押贷款选项。

If you find yourself needing fiat at a bad time when you really don't want to sell, it can't hurt to look into a safe, simple option for Bitcoin backed loans.

这基本上就像房屋抵押贷款一样，只不过你是用比特币作为抵押来获取法币贷款，这样你就不必卖掉比特币。

This is like a mortgage on a house basically, except that you're quote unquote mortgaging your Bitcoin to get a fiat loan so that you don't have to sell your Bitcoin.

我喜欢Ledden的原因是他们基本上砍掉了其他所有业务，现在只专注于明确托管、储备证明和公开账本的比特币抵押贷款。

The reason I'm a fan of Ledden is because they basically cut out all of their other stuff, and they just only have explicitly custodied and proof of reserves and open books, Bitcoin backed loans.

这就是他们现在全部的业务。

That's all they do now.

他们在2021至2022年的熊市和混乱中幸存下来，基本上没有任何负面新闻。

And they have survived a hell of a bear market and the chaos of the twenty twenty one, twenty twenty two era basically without any news.

我在节目说明里放了个带优惠的链接，你们可以去看看。

I've got a link in the show notes with a discount so that you can check them out.

绝对值得研究，因为它可能非常适合你的情况。

It's definitely worth investigating because it might work really well for your situation.

另外如果你错过了，财政部长在比特币白皮书日发了条推文。

Also, if you missed this, the treasury secretary made a tweet on Bitcoin white paper day.

推文说：白皮书发布十七年后，比特币网络仍在运行且比以往更具韧性。

It read, seventeen years after the white paper, the Bitcoin network is still operational and more resilient than ever.

比特币永远不会停摆。

Bitcoin never shuts down.

参议院民主党人真该学学这个。

Senate Dems could learn something from that.

显然他最后那段是在搞愚蠢的政治把戏，但有趣的是人们对比特币合法性的认知转变。

Now, obviously, he's making his stupid political play there at the end, but it's fascinating to, like, the cultural shift, the mental shift that has occurred when it comes to Bitcoin's legitimacy.

现在大多数认为比特币不好或不喜欢比特币的人，基本上都选择无视它了，因为这个东西显然不会消失。

Now largely, for the people who think that, like, Bitcoin is bad or they don't like Bitcoin, they're largely just ignoring it now because it's just this thing that clearly isn't going away.

同样重要的是要注意到，我们正处在日益混乱的经济环境中。

And it's important to note also that we're in increasingly chaotic economic conditions.

要知道，我们正面临一个惊人的债务泡沫，我认为这将导致市场更频繁地在看似积极的流动性事件与消极事件之间摇摆。

You know, we have a just a staggering debt bubble that I believe is just going to add to more frequent swings towards a seemingly positive liquidity event in the in the general market and then a negative one.

基本上，信贷周期正在大幅缩短。

Like, basically, credit cycles are shrinking quite a bit.

我们见证了2021至2022年的信贷周期（或者说信贷崩盘），而我认为现在正进入另一个周期。

You know, we've seen we had the 2021, 2022 credit cycle or credit crash, and I think we're kind of going into another one right now.

政府和央行将不得不采取相应措施来维持经济运转。

And, basically, the government and the central bank are gonna have to respond in kind to keep the to keep the economy afloat.

但我认为这是经济环境中不稳定性和混乱加剧的自然发展过程。

But I think this is the natural progression of increasing instability and chaos in the economic environment.

正因如此，所有事情都会变得越来越难以预测。

And because of that, everything's gonna get harder and harder to predict as well.

我们预期或本应按某种方式发展的事物，最终可能会让人失望——这或许是最恰当的说法。

And things that we expect or that ought to move a certain way are going to start disappointing people, might be the best way to put it.

在混乱时期和基础不稳固的情况下，事物的发展往往会失去方向。

Is, you know, there with with chaotic times and unstable foundations, things just move all over the place.

许多事情都不会完全如预期般发展，这正是为什么你必须从宏观视角看问题。

A lot of things just won't be exactly as expected, which is exactly why you have to zoom out.

你必须退后一步，意识到当下这一天或这一周发生的事情并不代表资产的真实状况。

You have to take a step back and realize that, you know, what's happening this day or this week is not what's happening to the asset.

我记得在哪一集里用过这个比喻来着？

You know, I use the analogy in what episode was this?

我不知道。

I don't know.

我收到了几条好评，对此深表感激。

I got a couple of good comments about it, and it was appreciated.

哦，那是和威尔·里夫斯在沃克的节目《比特币》播客上。

Oh, it was with Will Reeves on the Bitcoin The Bitcoin Podcast on Walker's show.

但我用了一个比喻：就像身处汪洋中的一艘船上眺望山脉——当经济动荡、信贷周期和市场（尤其是短期市场和流动性）掀起巨浪，每个人都在做不同决策时，你就如同坐在那艘船上看着山脉。

But I used the analogy of being on a ship out in the ocean and looking at a mountain is that, you know, when the economy when everything is unstable and you have these massive waves in credit cycles and the markets and in in short term markets and liquidity and everybody's making different decisions and all of these things is you're sitting on that boat and you're looking at the mountain.

你看到的是在其供应结构背景下绝对稳定的存在，是系统本身的系统性稳定。

You're looking at the thing that is perfectly stable in the context of its supply structure, the sis the systemic stability of the system itself.

但因为你在船上，巨浪不断从旁经过，船身起伏不定，从你的视角看会觉得这艘船才是稳定的。

But because you're on the ship and you've got a bunch of big waves going by you and you're going up and down, it looks if you're looking at it and that's your perspective is that this ship I I'm on is stability.

那这座山在干什么呢？

And what is this mountain doing?

嗯，山看起来反而像是在到处移动。

Well, the mountain looks like it's going all over the place.

此外，我们现在所处的市场水域要深得多。

And then in addition, we're in markets that just have much, much deeper waters now.

最近我看到一些数据，充分显示了经济状况变得多么不稳定。

And I've seen a few stats recently that just show how unstable the economic conditions have become.

昨天First Squawk的推文提到，401(k)困难取款数量达到有记录以来的最高水平。

There was actually a tweet from yesterday from first squawk saying that four zero one k hardship withdrawals hit the highest level since record keeping began.

我还看到另一张图表显示，当前拖欠房贷的数量已经超过了房地产泡沫高峰时期的水平。

And then I saw another chart of we've actually surpassed the number of delinquent mortgages than we did actually during the peak of the of the housing bubble.

现在，我不完全确定那张图表，我记不清了。

Now, not a 100% sure if that chart, I can't.

我没带在身上，可能也没保存。

I don't have it with me, and I probably didn't save it.

我可能只是喜欢过它，但如果你只是喜欢某样东西，却没有真正保存、整理并标记它，它就消失了——因为推特讨厌让你真正搜索历史记录，也讨厌让你找到任何与当下无关的陈旧内容。

I probably just liked it, and if you just like a thing, and don't actually save it and organize it and label it, it's gone because Twitter hates letting you actually search through your history or be able to find anything that's not immediately relevant today and is fresh.

我发誓，他们就是故意隐藏内容，把你困在新动态里不停互动。

I swear to God, they explicitly hide stuff so that you're just stuck in the the new feed and engaging.

这快把我逼疯了。

It drives me crazy.

但无论如何，我...我记不清那张图表是按人均计算的美元逾期金额，还是单纯显示逾期贷款数量的平面数据。

But anyway, I I I can't remember if the chart was like a per capital, like a like a dollar amount delinquency, or if it was literally a a flat, like how many loans that are are delinquent.

所以重要的是要记住，所有这些数据都带有通胀问题。

So it's important to keep in mind that all of these stats have kind of that inflation issue.

对吧？

Right?

就像当这部电影打破票房纪录，赚得比以往任何电影都多时的情况。

Is that it's like when you you break a new record with this movie made more money than any movie that ever came before.

这就好比，是啊，你现在卖的是20美元的电影票，却和当年1美元票价的电影比较。

It's like, well, yeah, you're you're selling it at $20 movie tickets, and you're comparing it to movies that sold $1 movie tickets.

如果你考虑通胀因素——哪怕只是简单用CPI调整——但如果你真正考虑通胀，没有电影能比得上《乱世佳人》。

Like, if you account for inflation and you, like, you really count for inflation, even if you just do a naive, like, CPI account for inflation, but if you really account for inflation, nothing compares to Gone with the Wind.

《乱世佳人》的影院收入超过任何电影，而且永远不会有电影能与之抗衡。

Gone with the Wind made more money in the theater than any movie ever, and no movie will ever compete with it.

当我们讨论2021、2022年的经济衰退时，会发现名义数据上有些回调，就像用名义数据衡量近期情况一样，比如银行倒闭数量这类指标，可以拿来与2007、2008年对比。

So there's a bit of a pullback when we're talking about just like nominal measurements of it's just like nominal measurement of the recent, like, twenty twenty one, twenty twenty two collapse and the number of banks that collapsed and that sort of thing is that you compare that to 2007, 2008.

简直了，我的天。

It's like, oh my god.

这次崩盘更严重。

This crash was even worse.

有些倒闭的银行规模非常庞大。

Some of these banks were huge.

没错，就是这样。

It's like, yep.

现在所有数字都更庞大了。

Well, everything's much huger.

2007、2008年时，美国政府债务是9万亿美元。

Like, 2007, 2008, the, debt of the United States government was $9,000,000,000,000.

如今这个数字是38万亿美元。

It is $38,000,000,000,000 today.

从9万亿涨到了38万亿。

It went from 9 to 38.

而比特币已经连续下跌大概八周了。

And Bitcoin's been going down for, you know, last eight weeks maybe.

如果你看周线图的话，其实它一直在上下波动。

I mean, it's up and down if you look at like a weekly chart.

但总体而言，如果画条趋势线，就是一条下降线。

But just general, if you just draw a line, it's just a downtrend line.

水手今天发推说他们这周每天都买了比特币。

Sailor tweeted today that they bought Bitcoin every single day this week.

他还是比所有人都抢先一步。

He's still just front running everybody.

还有标普...哦等等。

And the s and p the oh, wait.

对。

Yeah.

标准普尔公司，我想是他们给策略做了评级，一个信用评级，给了B-，这被认为是很糟糕的。

Standard and Poor's, I think, they're they gave a rating to strategy, a credit rating, and gave it a b minus, which is, like, considered terrible.

听起来像是，哦我得了个B。

I mean, it sounds like, oh, I got a b.

你懂吗？

You know?

我我考得不错。

I I made a good grade.

但当涉及到大型企业的信用评级时，B-基本上意味着应该预期会破产。

But a b minus when it comes to a credit rating for a large corporation is basically one that is should be expecting bankruptcy.

B-真的很差。

Like, a b minus is really bad.

他们给出这个评级时，评估其持有的比特币价值为零。

And when they gave this rating, they evaluated their Bitcoin holdings as worth zero.

事实上，由于其比特币持仓被引用'市场风险且不产生收益'的原因，从权益中扣除了。

In fact, their Bitcoin holdings were deducted from their equity due to, quote, market risk and the fact that it is non yielding.

他们将其列为垃圾股。

They listed it as a junk stock.

当这种情况很可能在信用评级机构面前爆发时，看看下一个时代——或者说，我认为很可能就是这个时代——会是什么样子，将会非常有趣。

Now when that likely blows up in the credit rating agencies face, it'll be really interesting to see what the the kind of next era or, actually, I think it will probably be in this era.

当基本事实证明，将比特币视为净负面因素，或仅仅视为资产负债表上的风险（与美元或某种收益债券形成对比，后者在市场上遭受重创），甚至在没有央行干预的情况下，大型企业和金融机构的巨额资金被困其中时，连平仓的流动性都不足——这种观念将会改变。

It will be when it it's basically shown that treating Bitcoin as if it's a a net negative or a a specifically just a risk on a balance sheet as opposed to dollars or some sort of, like, yielding bond that's being clobbered in the markets, or that there's not even enough liquidity without the central bank to exit a position of when when you're talking about enormous corporate and financial treasuries that are basically stuck holding a lot of these.

这种情绪也将发生转变。

That sentiment is also going to change.

不知道何时。

Don't know when.

也不知道具体如何或为何。

Don't know exactly how or why.

很可能会发生一系列事件，彻底颠覆整个局面。

There will probably be some series of events that kind of turn the entire thing on its head.

我是说，债务将会螺旋式上升。

I mean, the debt is gonna be spiraling.

我是说，债务正在失控地螺旋上升。

I mean, the debt is spiraling out of control.

而且我认为人们还没有意识到情况有多糟糕。

And I don't think people just realize how bad it is.

知道吗，不久前我刚发过一条推文：2007年时美国债务增长速度之快被认为非常可怕，当时处境已经很糟糕。

You know, I just I sent a tweet not too long ago that in 2007, The US debt, which was considered horrible, like, were in a really bad position in how fast that debt was growing.

伊拉克战争和2001年后发生的所有事情。

Everything after the Iraq war and 2001, all these things.

我们曾处于一个相当惊人的增长趋势中。

We were on a pretty staggering growth trend.

当时的债务是9万亿美元。

The debt was $9,000,000,000,000.

如今，还不到二十年。

Today, it's not been twenty years.

这将发生在2027年。

This will be 2027.

如今，债务已达到38万亿美元。

Today, the debt is $38,000,000,000,000.

这意味着翻了两番。

That is 2 doublings.

从九到十八，再从十八到三十六。

Nine to eighteen, eighteen to 36.

这一规律始终成立。

This has held true.

自七十年代以来，美国国债每十年简单翻倍的规律一直成立。

This simple doubling every ten years of The US national debt has held true since the seventies.

实际上，我认为可以追溯到1965年。

Actually, I think '65.

我认为你可以一路追溯回去。

I think you can take it all the way back there.

唯一没有遵循这一规律的十年是1975到1985年，因为那期间债务增长了三倍而非两倍。

And the only ten year period that did not hold true was, I believe, from '75 to '85, and that's because it tripled instead of doubled.

这意味着，按照一个稳定的五十年趋势保守估计，到2045年我们的债务规模将在140美元到180万亿美元之间。

Which means that a conservative estimate of where we will be in 2045 just going with a stable fifty year trend is somewhere between $140 and $180,000,000,000,000 in debt.

如果这不是我们在评估比特币长期潜力或日常波动时所关注或考虑的，如果我们认为那种上涨趋势会毫无波动。

If this isn't what we are looking at or considering as we evaluate the long term potential or what's happening in the day to day in Bitcoin, if we think that that climb there is going to be without any volatility.

这根本不可能。

It's simply not possible.

事实上，我们将看到波动会继续加大，因为名义上它们变得更大了。

And in fact, what we're going to see is the swings will continue to get bigger because they get nominally bigger.

市场本身就像身处更深的水域。

The the market itself is just like is just like being in deeper waters.

你将面临更大的名义波动，因为你面对的是更庞大的底层水域。

You're gonna have far greater nominal swings because you're just dealing with a lot more underlying water.

追逐这一切的名义资本量惊人，我们正不断将其注入市场。

Like, there's just a staggering amount of actual of nominal capital chasing all of this stuff, and we're flooding it into the markets over and over again.

每个政权、每位总统，无论他们系红色领带还是蓝色领带——谁在乎呢？这根本不重要。

And every regime, every president, whether they're wearing a red tie or a blue tie, who gives a shit, it's not gonna matter.

他们都会试图粉饰太平，都会编织叙事，都会操控舆论框架。

They're all going to just try to make it look like they're and they're all gonna tell the narrative, and they're all going to frame it.

他们都会选择性地展示图表，让自己执政时期显得形势好转，而把所有问题归咎于前任或对立党派——实际上什么都不会改变。

They're all gonna pick which charts that they show, so that their time and control is when things are getting better, and it was the other guy or the other party that caused all of the problems, and nothing is actually going to change.

即使有变化，也只会停留在非常非常表面的层面。

All the things that do change will be very, very surface level.

为什么？

Why?

因为真正的系统性变革会带来阵痛。

Because the actual systemic change is going to hurt.

这种痛苦会非常非常剧烈，除非你真正在思考未来二十年的规划。

It's gonna hurt really, really bad unless you are actually thinking where if you're thinking in twenty years, okay.

你盘算着收入会是多少，要投资什么项目，买房子或置办各种东西，却没考虑到我们可能将背负180到200万亿美元的债务，那你就是在毫无准备。

What you know, my income is gonna be this, and I'm gonna invest in in or I'm gonna have a project, or I'm gonna have a house, or I'm gonna have all this stuff, and you're not accounting for the fact that we're probably going to be a 180 to $200,000,000,000,000 in debt, then you're not preparing.

你看着当今世界，并沿着线性轨迹推演未来。

You're looking at the world today and you're extrapolating it out on a linear path.

但我们并非处于线性发展轨道上。

We're not on a linear path.

我们正处于指数级增长的轨道。

We are on an exponential one.

你准备好花费200万美元了吗？

Are you prepared to spend $2,000,000?

你的计划是否预期要花200万买栋房子？

Is your plan expecting to spend $2,000,000 on a house?

因为如果你现在正打算购买40万美元的房子，为了让家人有安身之所，你需要做好心理准备——未来成本可能达到200万甚至更高。

Because if you're trying to buy a $400,000 one right now or you're looking at a $400,000 one right now in order to purchase so that you can have a house for your family, you need to prepare for it to be $2,000,000 or more in cost.

这在许多大城市已是常态。

That's normal in a lot of big cities.

你可以预期这种趋势将渗透到经济其他领域。

What you can expect is for that to trickle down to a lot of the rest of the economy.

这种现象会从旧金山这种150万美元只能买破屋的地区开始，逐渐蔓延至整个经济体系。

It's gonna move from the areas where it's already normal to see a $1,500,000 shack like San Francisco, and it's gonna spread out through the rest of the economy.

这一切都需要时间来快速推进。

It just takes time for all of that to rush through.

而且未来还会有更多的权益项目。

And there's gonna be more entitlements.

还会有更多的补贴政策。

There's going to be more subsidies.

政府基本上已经达到了财政主导的地步，政府行为对经济方向的影响远超所谓的'实体经济'的实际作用。

The the government is already basically like, we've reached the point of fiscal dominance where what the government does has more effect on the direction of the economy than anything the quote unquote real economy actually does.

这就是为什么我们不能有短期预期，或者做两个月的预测，因为我们完全无法预知。

This is why we can't have any short term expectations or, you know, making two month predictions because we just have no idea.

我们完全无法预知。

We have no idea.

我们正身处未知水域。

And we are in new waters.

我们正航行在一片水量远超以往的新海洋中。

We are in a new ocean with far far greater amounts of water.

当浪潮来袭时，它们将无比巨大。

And when the waves come, they're going to be massive.

你有没有看过那些视频——风暴前端的巨浪，或是货轮在难以置信的惊涛骇浪中穿行的画面？

Have you ever seen have you ever seen one of those videos of, like, waves on the front end of a storm or, like, like, a cargo ship that's going over these things that are just I mean, just unbelievable.

我简直无法想象，十六、十七世纪的人们是如何乘船在远洋经历这些风浪的，他们完全孤立无援，与世隔绝。

Like, I can't even fathom that people in the sixteen hundreds and seventeen hundreds rode on ships, and they experienced this in the middle of the ocean with no recourse, out of contact with anybody.

我希望你能花点时间去看看那些海上风暴中巨浪的视频，好好感受一下那种震撼。

And I want you to just take a moment and go watch one of those videos of massive waves out at sea in a storm just so you can appreciate it.

就是为了让你看清，当规模达到一定程度时，就没人能掌控了。

Just so just so you can look at it and realize that when you get to a certain scale, nobody is in control anymore.

而我们正处在这个阶段。

And that's where we are.

我们都想指责人性问题、政治问题以及各种其他问题，但我们对这件事根本没有掌控力。

We all want to point at the very human thing and the very political thing and this, that, and the other, but we're not in control of this thing.

没有人有。

Nobody is.

特朗普控制不了，民主党、共和党、政治体系里的任何势力、比特币玩家、传统金融、贝莱德，谁都控制不了。

Trump isn't in control of it, the Democrats, the Republicans, the anything in the political system, Bitcoiners, TradFi, BlackRock, nobody.

没有人能掌控这件事。

Nobody is in control of this thing.

所有人都在拼命想分一杯羹，想在这头牛死前尽可能多割些肉。

Everybody is just desperately trying to get something, trying to chop off as much meat off this cow before the thing dies.

因为现在还算新鲜，等它死了就会腐烂，剩下的人连肉渣都分不到。

Because right now, it's still kind of fresh meat, but when it dies, it's all gonna rot, and whoever's left isn't gonna have any meat at all.

他们以为能分到应得的那份牛肉，但到嘴的将是不能食用的腐肉。

They'll think they'll get their portion that they are allotted of the cow, but it will not be edible.

既然如此，当你持有比特币这样纯粹的资产时，为何它在如此不确定的环境下仍可能停滞甚至下跌？它明明是避险资产啊。

So why when you have pristine a pristine asset like Bitcoin, why is it that it could still be stagnant, that it could still be going down in this environment when there is so much uncertainty and it is a a risk asset.

我是说，黄金现在就在暴涨。

I mean, gold is surging right now.

黄金一直在布林带间震荡，时而突破上轨，时而下探中轨，时而又冲高。

Gold has just been bouncing between, like, going over there, like, stretching outside of the Bollinger Bands, going down to the middle to stretching up.

比特币在上涨方面毫无表现，而只是在所有上涨压力的底部区间来回震荡。

Just it's been nothing on the upside, whereas Bitcoin's just kind of been bouncing around bouncing off the downside of all of the all of the upward pressures.

那么为何会有如此巨大的差异？

So why the huge difference?

因为比特币仍是一张可兑换尚未成熟食物的票据。

It's because Bitcoin is still a ticket to redeem food that is not done growing.

虽然这个比喻可能扯得太远——但就像所有人都在试图从一头将死的牛身上割肉。

You know, using stretching the analogy probably too far, but that everybody's trying to hack some meat off of a cow that's basically going to die.

比特币是头小牛，看似投入资金回报有限，但你同时还获得了许多甚至尚未出生的小牛股份。

Bitcoin is a calf, so it looks like you're not getting much for your money, and you're also getting shares in a lot of other calves that are even yet to be born.

这其中蕴含巨大潜力，但人们刚刚才意识到：是的，这终将为人类产出食物。

There's a lot of promise there, but it's only just recognized that, okay, yeah, this is going to produce food for people.

所以如果你足够聪明，观察趋势后认识到：展望十年后，传统体系将无法提供任何养分。

So if you're smart and you look at the trends and you recognize that if I'm looking ten years out, this other system isn't gonna feed me anything.

事实上，我在传统选项中的所有投资都可能变得一文不值。

In fact, all of my investment might be completely worthless in this traditional option, in this established option.

唯有在这个见证增长的领域——在这里你能看到真正的新事物，看到系统性解决旧有顽疾的方案，那些害死前代牛群的病症。

And recognizing that only in this in the section where you see the growth, where you actually see something new, where you actually see a systemic fix to the lack of help, to the sickness that is killing the previous set of cows.

表面看来或许微不足道，但你获得了更可靠的保障，因为在长期时间线上存在实际回报潜力，且实现路径多样——毕竟潜力仍在。

It doesn't nominally look like much, but you're getting a far better guarantee because there's actually a potential return on that long timeline, and there's a bunch of different paths to getting that return because there's still potential.

希望犹存。

There's still hope.

仍有人在实实在在地建设。

There's still people actually building things.

正在取得进展。

There's progress being made.

别忘了技术、环境和监管方面的因素——我指的环境不是树木那些东西。

And don't forget how much technological, environmental, and regulatory, and I don't mean environment like the the trees and stuff.

我指的是基础设施、实际状况、市场地位、社会认可度、文化认同度，以及与传统市场和金融科技市场的联系，还有通过传统服务工具（比如Square）降低的准入门槛——这些人们已经能接触到的渠道。

I mean environment like the infrastructure, the actual, the position, the social recognition, the cultural recognition, the connections to traditional to traditional markets and to fintech markets and the falling barriers to access through traditional services and tools that people already have access to, like Square.

Square平台上有数百万商户，中小型企业现在只需点击两下就能以0%手续费直接接受比特币支付。

There's literally millions of merchants on Square, small and medium sized businesses that now basically have a two button way to get 0% fee accepting Bitcoin directly as a merchant in a store.

就在几个月前，Stake and Shake还是首个宣布支持比特币支付的大型连锁企业。

And it was only just a few months ago that Stake and Shake was kind of the first big one to make an announcement.

我们正在移山填海，而山岳的移动总是缓慢的。

We're moving mountains, and mountains move slowly.

比特币曾经只是堆泥土，要搬运它或让它规模翻倍都很容易，但要为这座山扩建新地基所需的时间和流动性则庞大得多。

Bitcoin used to just be a pile of dirt, and it was very easy to move it from one location to another or to have it grow and double in size, but the time and the liquidity needed to build a new piece of foundation to expand the mountain is far, far greater.

我认为这正是我们目睹的现象。

And I think that's what we're seeing.

比特币引领我们进入的新时代，其铺垫期就是会更漫长。

The setup for the era that we are moving into with Bitcoin is just taking longer.

舞台更宏大了，演出将更震撼，而开场前需要协调的事务也成倍增加。

The stage is bigger, the show is going to be more spectacular, and there's just way more to orchestrate before we can begin.

所以如果你看到比特币再次跌到五位数而感到恐惧、悲伤或沮丧，这很正常。

So if you're looking at Bitcoin being five digits again and getting scared or sad or gloomy, that's understandable.

说实话，我这两天醒来时状态也很糟糕。

You know, when I wake up and I've had I've had two rough days, really.

最近事情不太顺利。

Things haven't been going well.

那个项目，Pear Drive和开发相关的东西一直存在各种漏洞和问题，我真是受够了，太让人沮丧了。

The project, the Pear Drive and development stuff has just been still have bugs and problems, and I hate it, and it's super frustrating.

我已经在这上面投入了大量时间。

I've invested a lot of time into it.

房子的事完全停滞了，我每天都得联系承包商，已经持续两周了。

The house is totally on pause, like I've just been reaching out to contractor every single day, and it's been two weeks.

我们几乎没见到有人来干活。

We've barely seen anybody here.

昨天我花了四个小时试图解决某个工作流程的技术问题，结果到下班都没搞定。

I spent like four hours yesterday trying to figure out some technical issue with a workflow that I was trying to get working, and I didn't even I didn't even get it completed at the end of the day.

感觉就像车轮空转，我太熟悉这种无力感了。

I just felt like I'm just spinning my tires, and I know what it feels like.

结果一觉醒来比特币又暴跌。

And then I woke up and Bitcoin's crashed.

我现在全靠比特币生活。

And I'm on a Bitcoin standard.

每次暴跌我都压力山大，因为要用比特币支付工资，这样实际支出就更多了。

I feel these waves because I have to pay people, and it costs me more in Bitcoin every time this happens.

早上醒来时我忍不住骂娘，整个人都蔫了。

And I woke up and I was like, son of a bit like, I've I've felt I felt the ick.

就是那种'唉'的无力感。

I felt the ugh.

但意识到12万是正常价位，而当前价格是9.5万，这正是一个机会。

But realizing that a 120 k is normal and the price is what 95 right now is an opportunity.

这是打折价。

It's a discount.

当我们重新迎来那些出人意料、通常非常激进且短暂的暴涨期时，你会因为没尽可能多地囤积而懊悔不已。

And when we return to the unexpected and generally very aggressive and short lived growth periods, you're just going to be kicking yourself for not stacking as much as you could.

实际上，我收到了一笔赞助款，是以法币形式到账的，而我当时没意识到。

In fact, I actually had a sponsor payment come in that came in as fiat, and I didn't realize it.

于是这笔钱一直躺在银行账户里。今早我情绪低落觉得诸事不顺时，突然发现手头法币比预期多得多，于是果断抄底大买特买。

And so it's been sitting in the bank account, and after being gloomy and just being like, oh, everything sucks this morning, I realized that I was sitting on a lot more Fiat than I had intended to, and so I bought the crap out of the dip.

我要回到我的项目上，准备再推进一些进度。

And I'm gonna go back to my project, and I'm gonna make a little bit more progress.

我要回头处理这个愚蠢的技术问题，应该很快就能解决或找到替代方案。

I'm gonna go back to this stupid technical issue and I'll probably get it sorted out pretty quick or I'll find an alternative.

由于比特币下跌，以比特币计价的东西会显得更贵些。

And because Bitcoin is down, things will cost a little bit more in Bitcoin terms.