读_871 - 致持币者：一份致歉

我们正在获胜的最佳迹象之一就是那些比特币反对者变得多么痛苦，今天我们有个有趣的小故事专门讲这个。

One of the best signs that we're winning is just how bitter all the buttcoiners are getting, and we got a fun short one today all about it.

比特币领域的最佳内容，尽在Audible。

The best in Bitcoin made Audible.

我是盖伊·斯旺，这里是《比特币可听》。

I am Guy Swan, and this is Bitcoin Audible.

大家好，最近怎么样？

What is up, guys?

欢迎回到《比特币可听》。

Welcome back to Bitcoin Audible.

我是盖伊·斯旺，一个比你认识的所有人都阅读了更多比特币相关内容的家伙。

I am Guy Swan, the guy who has read more about Bitcoin than anybody else you know.

今天我们为大家准备了一期精彩节目。

We've got a great show for you today.

这将是一段朗读内容。

This is gonna be a read.

实际上会非常简短，来自《金融时报》，算是向比特币持有者的道歉——但也不完全是。

It's gonna be a very short read, actually, from the Financial Times, and it's an apology to Bitcoin HODLers, but not really.

这篇短文中有一两处表述让我简直...我当时的反应就是'哇哦'。

And there's just one or two things that's said in this very short piece that just had me like, I was just wow.

就像，某些人反比特币的观点有多愚蠢，而他们自己却意识不到，这在我看来简直疯狂。

Like, it was just crazy that it seems crazy to me that people cannot see how dumb some of their anti Bitcoin takes are.

或者说他们被证明错误的程度简直令人难以置信。

Or maybe just how unbelievably proven wrong they have been.

退一步来说。

And to take a step back.

比如，你不必是比特币的支持者。

Like, you don't have to be a Bitcoin supporter.

但只需退一步思考：如果比特币的价格、这个网络的价值、以及你曾说不会发生的一切，不仅发生了，而且恰恰是以你曾反对的那些人所预言的方式发生的。

But to just take a step back and ask that if the price of Bitcoin, if the value of this network, if everything that you said wasn't going to happen, has happened, and in fact happened in exactly the same way as the people you were disagreeing with said it was going to happen.

也许吧。

Maybe.

也许。

Maybe.

考虑一下前提可能有点问题。

Consider the premise could be a little bit off.

向Jade Plus硬件钱包致敬。

Shout out to the jade plus hardware wallet.

顺便说，目前我最喜欢的配置是Jade Plus通过蓝牙连接Blockstream Green，特别是作为一个基础钱包使用，没有多重签名等功能——虽然我在Nunchuk上设置了多重签名。

By the way, my favorite setup right now with the jade plus is Bluetooth connected to Blockstream Green, especially for just like a basic wallet that I want to use, like, just absent of multisig and stuff, which I am setting it up with multisig on my nunchuck.

但只需启动Green Wallet和Jade，它们就能通过蓝牙自动连接使用，这体验真的很棒。

But just booting up Green Wallet and the Jade together and then just using it, and they just talk over Bluetooth, man, that's really nice.

如果你想入手这套设备，用优惠码'guy'可以打九折。

If you wanna grab yours, if you like that setup, you can get 10% off with code guy.

这是我的名字。

That's my name.

很容易记住。

It's easy to remember.

如果你拼写不出来，就别碰J+，否则你会遇到麻烦。

If you can't spell it, don't get a j plus, you're gonna have problems.

详情链接见节目备注。

Link in details in the show notes.

如果你想找一款内置闪电网络、链上功能且超级直观易用的优秀移动钱包，Synonym团队开发的BitKit钱包值得一试。

And if you want a great mobile wallet with lightning built in with on chain and that is super intuitive and simple to use, the BitKit wallet by the guys over at Synonym.

这是我长期以来的最爱之一。

It's been one of my favorites for a while.

这款钱包绝对值得你试试。

Definitely check this one out.

链接和详情见节目备注。

Links and details in the show notes.

好的。

Alright.

接下来，让我们开始今天的节目。

With that, let's go ahead and get into today's episode.

首先阅读《金融时报》一篇暗含向比特币持有者道歉的短文，随后我们会附上嘉宾的解读。

A short read from the Financial Times with a backhand apology to Bitcoiners, and then, of course, we will follow it up with a guy's take.

让我们从今天的文章开始，标题是《持有者们，一份道歉——为比特币里程碑致歉》，作者布莱斯·埃尔德。

So let's kick it off with today's article, and it's titled HODLers, An Apology, A mea culpa to mark a Bitcoin milestone by Bryce Elder.

《金融时报》Alphaville栏目的老读者可能已形成这样的印象：其现任和前任作者们对加密货币（尤其是比特币）普遍持怀疑态度。

Regular readers of Feet Alphaville may have formed the impression that its current and former writers are united in skepticism about crypto in general and Bitcoin in particular.

确实如此。

That is correct.

2011年6月至今的FTAV文章可能传达了这样一种观点：比特币是在一套非常聪明、理论上可作为记账单位的协议上进行的负和游戏，但作为传统交换媒介长期低效，作为价值储存手段也存在缺陷。

FTAV posts between June 2011 and today may have communicated the idea that Bitcoin is a negative sum game being played on a protocol that's very clever and hypothetically useful as a unit of account, but is chronically inefficient as a conventional means of exchange and is compromised as a store of value.

我们的文章可能还推广了这样的观点：比特币价格只是与代币实际效用脱节的任意炒作指标——因为复制该代币提供的效用轻而易举，所以其任何内在价值都来自基础设施的沉没成本，以及监管默许、与主流金融体系的互联性（而它曾自诩是解药）、以及作为首创者的纪念吸引力等无形资产。

Our posts may also have promoted the idea that the price of a Bitcoin is an arbitrary hype gauge that is disconnected from any utility the token may have, because it is trivial to duplicate the utility provided by said token, so any intrinsic worth comes from the sunk costs of infrastructure alongside intangibles like regulatory acquiescence, interconnectedness with mainstream financial systems it was once sold as being the antidote to, and the souvenir attraction of being the first.

我们坚持每一篇这样的文章立场。

We stand by every single one of those posts.

然而，随着比特币价格近期突破10万美元，大量评论者似乎认为鉴于我们长期的怀疑态度，他们理应得到道歉。

Nevertheless, with Bitcoin's price recently crossing $100,000 a significant number of commenters seem to feel they deserve an apology in light of our long standing cynicism.

所以道歉来了。

So here it is.

我们很抱歉——如果在过去十四年里，你曾因为我们的报道而选择不购买这个数字上涨的东西。

We're sorry if at any moment in the past fourteen years, you chose based on your coverage not to buy a thing whose number has gone up.

当你的数字上涨时确实很棒，如果你将我们的加密怀疑主义误解为对传统金融的支持，我们也很抱歉——因为我们同样讨厌传统金融。

It's nice when your number goes up and we're sorry if you misunderstood our cryptosynicism to be a declaration of support for TradFi because we hate that too.

完毕。

The end.

就是这样。

And that was it.

那我为什么要做这期节目？

So why why am I doing this episode?

我做是因为想到有人能如此持久地坚持错误却从不反思前提，这让我觉得太不可思议了。

I did it because it is wild to me to think that someone can so consistently and for such a long time be wrong and yet not reconsider their premise.

我做这期节目就是因为这句话。

I'm doing this episode because of this sentence.

引述：比特币的价格不过是一个与代币实际效用脱节的炒作指标，因为复制该代币提供的效用轻而易举。

Quote, the price of a Bitcoin is an arbitrary hype gauge that's disconnected from any utility the token may have because it's trivial to duplicate the utility provided by said token.

那么我要反问：如果你认为复制比特币的效用如此简单，为何十四年来没有任何竞争者能与之匹敌？

And here I would ask, if you think it's trivial to duplicate the utility of Bitcoin, then why after fourteen years has nothing even slightly competed with it?

有人试图用'比特币只是占了先发优势'这种说辞来搪塞，却刻意忽略我们正在目睹加密货币与比特币的分化趋势，这种粉饰本质上是把先发纪念品般的噱头当作全部理由。

And then the argument that the only reason here is that is to hand wave that away, the fact that we're actually watching the divergence between crypto and Bitcoin now, and to try to whitewash that with nothing but the souvenir of being the first, the souvenir attraction of being the first, that this is all just because Bitcoin is the first.

知道还有哪些是'第一个'吗？

You know what else was the first?

聚友网、马赛克浏览器、美国在线、黑莓手机、Betamax录像制式。

Myspace, Mosaic, AOL online, BlackBerry, Betamax.

你的认知就止步于此了吗？

Is that really as deep as you go?

难道你们的思维深度仅限于此——一边声称比特币的成功仅因先发优势，一边无视其效用可被轻易复制的悖论？尽管完全不同的系统和链都能复制它，尽管收益持续递减，它却依然碾压所有竞争者。

Is that as deep as the thinking goes that the only reason Bitcoin has succeeded, even though its utility is completely meaningless because it's so unbelievably easy to duplicate it completely on an entirely different system, an entirely different chain, and one whose returns are being diminished, that has diminishing returns over time, and yet it still destroys all of its competition.

你们难道从未想过其中或许另有玄机？

You don't ever stop to wonder maybe there's something more to it?

你们甚至不愿花十秒敞开心扉思考：比特币究竟提供了什么不可复制的核心价值？

You don't have an open mind for ten seconds to just ask what is it that Bitcoin does provide that nothing else can copy?

如果从这个前提出发，要发现真相根本不需要太久。

If you actually started it from that premise, I don't see how it would take very long to find it.

这种认知偏差很大程度上源于将货币目的与使用场景混为一谈。

And this so much of this stems from thinking that the purpose of money is how you end up using it.

那些只盯着屏幕数字名义归属权变更的表象，实则是将优质货币的结果错认为目的——真正重要的应是理解货币本质如何赋予这些结果意义。

That the facade of changing the apparent, the written ownership of numbers on a screen to be labeled by the name or the account of someone else, It is confusing the result of good money with its purpose rather than understanding the purpose of money that allows the result to be meaningful.

标签变更意味着什么？那些特定数字的账户号码变更又意味着什么？

What does it mean to have that label change, to have the account number change on those particular digits?

要改回来有多困难？

How difficult is it to change it back?

因此，我将尝试提炼出我认为货币的根本目的——正是这个目的使得所有其他货币属性得以实现：支付、交易、商业合同、期货市场和期权、社交媒体打赏、发送给灾区的慈善与重建资金、以及实际调动真实资源和人力以更好地获取货币这一事物。

So I'm going to try to distill down what I believe the ultimate purpose of money is that allows all of those other moneyness things to come about, the payments, the transactions, the business contracts, the futures markets and options, social media tipping, the philanthropy and and recovery funds sent to disaster areas, the actual shifting of real resources and real people in order to better obtain the thing that is money.

是什么让这一切成为可能？

What is it that makes all of that possible?

是什么让人们真的愿意卖掉房子、改变行为、中止进行中的项目，只为防止损失或获取市场上这一种特定商品？

What is it that makes people literally literally sell their house, change their behavior, stop a project that they were in the middle of in order to prevent the loss of or in order to obtain more of a singular good in the market?

有什么能激励如此多人围绕获取社会中的这一种商品做出如此多行为和决策？

What could possibly enable or incentivize so many people to do so many things and make so many decisions around obtaining one good in the society?

货币的目的，其最根本的目的，是承载整个社会的价值——等同于反映所有物品、房屋、电子产品、创意和合同价值的集合体，并将这些价值可靠地储存在一种商品中而不贬值。

The purpose, the primary foundational purpose of money is to hold the entire value of society, value equivalent to the reflection of the value of all of the items and houses and electronics and ideas and contracts for all of it to be mirrored in one good and that it would store this value reliably and not drop it.

让我换种方式再说一次。

Let me say that again in a different way.

货币的使命，或者说货币面临的最大挑战，是要承载经济网络中所有可供交易物品的累积价值而不崩溃。

Money's purpose or money's greatest challenge is to hold the value of everything available for trade in the economic network, all of it cumulatively, without breaking.

根据定义，它是经济网络中最具价值的商品。

It is by definition the most valuable good in the economic network.

事实上，它能在达到极限前承载价值的程度——在技术限制被制造更多货币的欲望突破前，或在制造欲望被技术限制遏制前——

And in fact, the degree to which it can accomplish this, the scale to which it can hold value before it reaches its limits, before it breaks, before the desire to make more of it is overcome by technological or technological limitations are overcome by the desire to make more of it.

这个极限恰恰决定了它能创造多少网络价值。

That limit is exactly how much network it is able to create.

它能够持续存在。

It's able to sustain.

这正是过去决定货币网络局限性的因素。

And that's what's dictated the limit of monetary networks in the past.

兽皮和动物皮毛只是众多分散小型网络中的一部分。

Hides and animal skins were only ever part of a very disparate, small set of networks.

因为一旦它们成为过于贵重的货币和过于庞大的网络，就很容易被大量增发。

Because as soon as they become too valuable of a money and too large of a network, it's too easy to just aggressively increase the the supply of them.

玻璃珠在欧洲和非洲大陆交流后就失去了货币功能。

Glass beads stopped working as soon as the European and African continents mixed.

新技术、新环境和新规模要求这些玻璃珠维持其稀缺性——它们的限制，那些所谓的规定，关于每颗玻璃珠在经济网络中所能代表的价值——这套体系崩溃了。

The new technology, the new environment, and the new scale to which those glass beads needed to sustain their scarcity, their limits, the quote, unquote rules as to what those what that what each individual glass bead was able to represent in the economic network, it collapsed.

规模变得过于庞大，导致其功能失效。

It got too big, and it ceased being able to function.

探讨这个现象的本质，即保持所有价值不崩溃的理念，实际上是在问：当思想网络、技术网络、产品网络、商品网络和经济中的创意网络呈指数级增长时，它能否保持稀缺性？因为货币是社会上最令人向往的商品，所有这些要素都会被用来试图创造更多货币。

And to talk about what that means, what that the idea of holding all of the value and not breaking, that essentially means can it remain scarce as the network of minds and technologies and products and goods and ideas in the economy compound, grow by an order of magnitude, and in which any and all of them can be used and necessarily will attempt to be used because the money is the most desirable good in the society, all of these things will be used to try to make more of it.

具体来说，随着网络扩张、交易能力提升、市场内商品服务专业化程度加深，以及数百万乃至数十亿人朝着该经济体系内的共同目标协作时，这个经济体系生产万物的效率就会越来越高。

And specifically, as a network expands, as a network grows in its ability to trade, in the specialization of all of the goods and services in that market, and in the millions and then billions of minds all acting toward a cooperative set of goals within that that economic system, the economic system gets better at making more of everything.

经济系统的核心使命就是不断实现数量级提升——更高效地创造新事物，更快速廉价地生产旧事物，继而建立解决新问题的新生产体系，并持续优化这些产品的量产能力。

That's its whole job is to get orders of magnitude better over and over and over again at creating new things, at creating old things better and faster and cheaper, and then establishing the new things to create that solve the problems better or that create new environments and solve new problems and then get better at creating more of those things.

整个经济引擎就是人类通过协作来更快速、更大量地优化生产成果的体系。

The entire economic engine is a system of human cooperation to make things better, faster, and a lot more of them.

理想的货币商品应当具备最持久的统一性、最稳定的稀缺性，并能像城墙般抵御所有试图增产它的创新冲击而保持自身不变。

The monetary good is the thing that can be most consistently uniform, most consistently scarce, and can actually stand up like a wall against all of that innovation at trying to make more of it and it not changing.

所有其他特性、所有其他需求、所有我们希望从货币、支付系统、交易或合同中获得的那些东西——无论它到底是什么——其他一切都由此衍生。

All of the other features, all of the other desires, all of the other things that we would want out of a money, out of payment systems, out of transactions, out of contracts, whatever the hell it is, everything else is downstream from that.

你无法在不具备价值存储功能的事物中进行价值交换。

You cannot transact value in something that cannot hold value.

你无法用某种未来三四年内是否仍保持一致性、是否仍被定义为同一事物都未可知的东西来规划未来。

You cannot plan for the future in something that you do not know is going to actually be consistent and be defined as the same thing in three or four years.

它能够保持统一性和稀缺性的程度。

The degree to which it is able to maintain its uniformity and scarcity.

统一性不仅体现在单位上——比如1个比特币等于1个比特币等于1个比特币，或者1盎司黄金等于1盎司黄金等等。

Uniformity not only just in the units that, like, oh, one Bitcoin is one Bitcoin is one Bitcoin, or one ounce of gold is one ounce of gold, etcetera.

显然这种统一性，还包括规则、操作以及商品本质在全球各地、不同司法管辖区内的统一性，再加上其稀缺性——即无人能增发的事实，这种特性优先于任何将其作为经济交流工具所构建的网络能力。

Obviously, that uniformity, but also the uniformity in the rules, in the operations, and in the the nature of what the good is across geographies, across jurisdictions, and then that scarcity, the fact that it cannot nobody can create more of it, its ability to do that precedes any and all capacity of a network built with it as the economic tool for communication.

它限制了其他特性实际能提供的功能。

It limits what any of those other features can actually provide.

举个例子，假设我们有个——我就用基于信任的货币来说明吧。

For example, let's say we have a well, I'll just use a trust based money.

我们将采用简单的社会层级信任货币，并运用邓巴数理论。

We'll use a simple social hierarchy trust money, and we will use Dunbar's number.

对吧？

Right?

当人数超过一百、一百五到两百人后，还能维持对所有人的互动共识、人际关系共识吗？更不用说——我们真算同一阵营吗？

Is that after a hundred, hundred fifty to 200 people, the general agreement on the interactions with everyone and the relationships between everyone and the fact that, you know, is everyone even on the same team here?

我们属于同一个群体吗？

Are we all a part of the same group?

一旦超过邓巴数字，这一切就开始分崩离析。

All of that starts to break down past Dunbar's number.

我们有一个社会体系，人们在其中就所有权达成共识，这个体系在邓巴数字范围内运作良好。

So we have a social system where people are just kind of agreeing to who owns what within it, and it works underneath the Dunbar's number.

在140人左右的规模下，它能完美运转。

With like a 140 people, it works beautifully.

看起来效率极高。

It seems to be wildly efficient.

你甚至不需要任何其他机制。

You don't even need any other mechanism.

不需要工作量证明。

You don't need proof of work.

不需要任何类似的东西。

You don't need anything like that.

因为在这个规模下，你们拥有强大的社会凝聚力。

Because you have a you have strong social cohesion at that scale.

因此，除了一群人达成共识外，你不需要其他任何东西。

Therefore, you don't need anything else other than a bunch of people agreeing.

当规模扩大到300、400人时，社会凝聚力就开始瓦解。

Then it scales to 300, 400 people, and the social cohesion starts to break down.

于是网络出现分裂，规则产生分歧：关于事态发展、资源分配、是否该有人印钞，以及那群人是否做了正确的事。

And thus, there's a split in the network and the rules in a disagreement about how things are unfolding, who should get what, and should somebody print money, and that that group over there didn't do the right thing.

那些人很愚蠢，或者那些人就是在剥削我们。

Those people are stupid or those people are just exploiting us.

这就是它分裂成不同群体，形成‘我们’与‘他们’对立的时刻。

This is when it breaks up into separate groups and you get us and them.

如果货币规则无法在500人的群体中保持一致，那么它就无法提供货币本应具备的任何功能。

If the rules of the money cease to be consistent across 500 a group of 500 people, well, then it can provide absolutely no other benefits that a money would normally provide.

它无法成为交换媒介，因为现在你得使用两种货币。

It can't be a medium of exchange because now you have to use two monies.

它不能作为记账单位，也无法平衡经济专业化和贸易网络，因为你们甚至没有统一的机制来衡量所有事物的价值。

It can't be a unit of account, and it can't balance economic specialization and trade networks because you're not using the same mechanism for what even everything is even worth.

它无法稳定保值到未来，因为一个群体的主导地位可能随时间剧烈变化，甚至可能在这个过程中出现第三个群体，产生完全不同的货币商品。

It can't hold value reliably into the future because the dominance of one group may actually change or shift wildly over time, and there may even a third group arise during all of this, and there might be a completely different monetary good.

这正是法定货币领域发生的情况。

This is exactly what happens in fiat land.

你之所以如此，是因为法定货币本质是信用工具，一种依赖信任的工具，最终只会被最暴力的势力主宰——它的存续完全取决于特定时期内被滥用的程度。

Is you necessarily because fiat is a tool of credit, it's a it's a tool necessitating on trust, it ends up simply getting dominated by the most violent, And then its survival is literally to the degree to which it is abused in a certain period of time.

这就是为什么法定货币总是在不断变化。

This is why fiat money is changing all the time.

法定货币的平均寿命大约只有二十一年。

The average lifespan of a fiat money is like twenty one years.

它最终会恶性通胀走向死亡——这就是法定货币自我毁灭的典型方式。

And it literally hyperinflates and dies, and that's the typical way in which a money a fiat money commits suicide.

当政权更迭时，他们会彻底更换货币。

When regimes change, they completely swap the money.

它就变成了一种全新的货币。

It becomes a completely new money.

如果你持有旧货币的储蓄，那毫无意义。

If you had savings in the old money, it's meaningless.

即便是巅峰主导地位，全球储备货币大约每八十年就会更迭一次。

And even peak dominance, the global reserve currency shifts about every eighty or so years.

让我们回到比特币功能容易被复制的观点上。

So let's go back to the claim that Bitcoin's utility can be easily copied.

如果你认为比特币只是个能修改电脑屏幕上'这家伙拥有'为'鲍勃拥有'标签的应用程序，那么不仅整个比特币系统毫无必要，它当然也能被轻易复制。

Now if you think Bitcoin is an app that can change the label of guy owns this to Bob owns this on a computer screen, Then not only is this whole system of Bitcoin not even necessary, but of course, it could be easily copied.

事实上，还能做得更好。

And in fact, it could be done better.

如果你不在乎撤销交易的成本，明天就能造出交易速度更快的山寨币。

You could make a shitcoin tomorrow that has much faster transaction speeds if you don't care what it costs to undo those transactions.

但如果撤销交易几乎零成本，交易速度又意味着什么？

But what does transaction speed mean if it costs virtually nothing to undo it?

或者当存在一个掌控系统、拥有所有节点和代币的团体，他们几乎可以单方面随意更改规则时？

Or if there is a group who run the system and own all of the nodes and all of the tokens, and they can pretty much just unilaterally change whatever they want.

在这种情境下，快速交易意味着什么？

What does a fast transaction mean in that context?

交易的是什么？

A transaction of what?

仅仅是账户上的名字吗？

Just the name on the account?

我坐在电脑前就能比任何山寨币更快完成这种操作。

I can do that faster than any shitcoin just sitting right here on my computer.

所以，当然，如果你认为比特币就是那样的话，你自然会觉得它可以被轻易复制。

So, of course, if that's what you think Bitcoin is, of course, you think it can be easily duplicated.

但如果你理解比特币所提供的特性——那些已使其成为数万亿美元资产的根本价值——如果你意识到这些价值源于其一致性、完整性，源于交易确认时你对其终局性所抱有的信心，理解确认的含义，以及谁有能力或没有能力撤销该确认，还有它将保持多么可靠且可预测的稀缺性。

But if you understand that the thing that Bitcoin provides, the fundamental value that has already made it a multi trillion dollar asset, if you realize that that is because of its consistency, that is because of its integrity, that is because of the degree to finality in which you have confidence when you receive a transaction, when it is confirmed, and what that confirmation means, and just how much, and who does or does not have the capacity to undo that confirmation, how reliably and predictably scarce it is going to be.

会有人找到技术或方法突破系统限制来增发比特币吗？

Will someone find a technology or find a way to make more of it than the system allows?

如果你仍持有私钥，你的币还会在那里吗？

If you still have your keys, will your coins still be there?

它还是原来的样子吗？

Is it still the same?

无论身处世界何处，规则和网络依然如初吗？

Are the rules still the same, and is the network still the same no matter where you are in the world?

你还能访问它吗？

Can you still access it?

当你意识到这些就是比特币提供的特性清单——正是这些真实价值使其成为数万亿美元资产时，你就会明白它不仅无法被复制，任何复制行为都会瞬间丧失所有这些属性。

When you realize that that is the list of things that Bitcoin provides, that is the real value that makes Bitcoin a multi trillion dollar asset, then you realize that not only can it not be copied, that the very act of copying it loses all of those properties instantly.

这会彻底重置它可能拥有的任何价值、完整性，以及为实现这些目标所积累的声誉。

It resets any potential value or integrity that it is and reputation that it has earned toward any of those goals at all.

试想一个仅由单节点、单矿工和刚从其他项目分叉出来的软件组成的比特币网络——它什么都不是。

Understand a Bitcoin network with one node and one miner and one piece of software that has just been forked from something else is anything.

字面意义上什么都不是。

It's literally anything.

这和我电脑里的电子表格毫无区别。

It is no different than a spreadsheet on my computer.

我们都知道这一点。

And we know this.

我们确实在比特币系统的分叉中见证了这一点。

We have literally seen this with forks of the Bitcoin system.

我已经记不清解释过多少次这段历史，关于比特币暗网发生了什么，以及它如何基本证明了整个区块大小战争时期的所有主要观点。

I've I don't know how many times I have to explain the history and what happened with Bitcoin dark and how it proves basically every major point of the whole block size war era.

如果你分叉，就意味着你将有机会创造一大堆新币。

If you fork, that means you're going to have the opportunity to make a whole bunch of new coins.

你的林迪效应消失了。

Your Lindy effect is gone.

所有你认为属于网络组成部分的所谓规则都失效了。

Any and all of the supposed rules that you think are part of the network are moot.

它们毫无意义。

They mean nothing.

历史是任意的，可以被改变。

The history is arbitrary and can be changed.

所有那些花哨的新功能，他们添加的隐私池和智能合约，都毫无意义，因为你不知道资产本身的价值是否一致，你现在相信拥有的隐私和新功能、新能力或新玩具上的附加功能是否真的存在，你实际交易的资产本身以及定义它是什么的规则，它们还是同一样东西吗？

And all the new fancy features, the privacy pool that they added, and the smart contracts that they added, all mean nothing because you do not know if the value of the good itself is even consistent, is the thing itself that you now believe you have privacy and you have some new feature, new capacity, or new toy and wing digit on it that you think is great, is the good itself, is the thing you are actually transacting and the rules that determine what it is, are they even the same thing?

它们还保有之前拥有的任何相同属性或保障吗？

Do they have any of the same properties or assurances as they did before?

如果你对这些运作原理稍有了解，就会知道答案是否定的。

And if you have even a cursory knowledge of how any of this works, you know that the answer is no.

它什么都没有保留。

It has none of it.

这些人一直在关注并撰写相关内容，这让我觉得不可思议。

And it is crazy to me that these people have been watching it and writing about this.

如果你注意到文章开头，他们提到2011年6月，他们在2011年6月就写过相关文章。

If you notice at the beginning of that article, they say June 2011, and they wrote an article about it in June 2011.

当时价格大约是19美元。

It was like $19.

更令人难以置信的是，经过这么多年，他们仍然愚蠢地认为比特币的所有特性和价值都能被轻易复制。

And to still say something so unbelievably stupid, to believe, to still think, to still think after all this time that all of the characteristics and value of Bitcoin can just be trivially duplicated.

十四年过去了，你怎么可能对它一无所知？

How after fourteen years could you have learned nothing about it?

简直毫无长进。

Like, nothing more.

我们说的可不是小幅上涨这种情况。

And we're not talking about, like, a small price rise here.

我们说的不是那种200%涨幅的单一周期。

We're not talking about one cycle, and, you know, it went up 200%.

原谅我们吧。

Forgive us.

我们错了。

We were wrong.

总有些东西会经历炒作周期，如果你对此一无所知，那确实可能上当。

You can always something that can always have a hype cycle, and if you don't know anything about it, sure.

就像那些愚蠢的东西也能掀起一阵风潮。

Like like something stupid can have a cycle.

万物皆有泡沫，尤其是在法币领域。

Everything has a bubble, especially in fiat land.

万物皆有泡沫。

Everything has bubbles.

大量甚至无法盈利的事物也曾有过辉煌时刻。

Tons of stuff that doesn't even make a profit has its day.

但这并非我们讨论的重点。

But that's not what we're talking about.

我们讨论的是比特币完整的四个周期及其价格500000%的涨幅。

We're talking about four full Bitcoin cycles and a 500000% increase in its price.

早在山寨币出现之前，我们就目睹它们试图——用他们的话说——'复制'比特币的效用和价值，却失败了约2000万次，至今仍一无所知。

And from before shitcoins were any even a thing in which we have watched them try to duplicate, quote, unquote, trivially Bitcoin's utility and value and fail, like, 20,000,000 times and to still know nothing about it.

这简直太疯狂了。

That's just wild.

真是不可思议。

It's just crazy.

实在令人啼笑皆非。

It's really amusing.

我在想这个过程会持续多久。

Like, I I wonder how long it takes.

你明白吗？

You know?

或许这本身就是个荒谬的笑话。

Maybe this is such a it's hilarious.

要知道，人们常说任何内在价值，引用原话，任何内在价值都源于基础设施的沉没成本，以及监管默许、与主流金融体系的互联互通等无形资产。

You know, they say any intrinsic worth, quote, any intrinsic worth comes from the sunk cost of infrastructure alongside intangibles like regulatory acquiescence, interconnectedness with mainstream financial systems.

它曾被宣传为解药和纪念性景点，引用原话，'成为第一'的象征——这套监管默许的基础设施、不断扩张的基建网络、以及与主流金融体系的深度互联，说真的，除了这些明摆着的指标外，你根本找不出其他能证明其成功与普及度的衡量标准，而你们却对这些事实轻描淡写地挥手否认。

It was once sold as being the antidote to and the souvenir attraction of, quote, being the first, which this whole the regulatory acquiescence infrastructure, expanding infrastructure and interconnected with and interconnectedness with mainstream financial systems, literally, there is nothing else you could you could use as a metric of showing that something is succeeding and being adopted than those the things that are just listed, you just kinda, like, hand waves them away.

就好像在说'哦，它之所以更有价值只是因为这些东西'。

It's like, oh, well, it's only more valuable because of these things.

又好比说'哦，因为它作为货币网络在增长'？

It's like, oh, because it's growing as a monetary network?

你知道货币网络是什么吗？

Do you know what a monetary network is?

光是这句话就够滑稽的。

That just that sentence is pretty funny.

但有趣的是，我隐约觉得这正是当前这种观点价值的真实写照。

But it's also kind of interesting that I get the sense that's kind of what's happening here with the value of this opinion.

它完全靠着'被重复十五年'的沉没成本硬撑，那些固执己见的人把基础设施爆发式发展、监管体系全面妥协并承认其不可阻挡、以及与所有主流金融体系和工具的日益融合——这些本应是普及化标志的现象——全都搪塞过去，仿佛这些成就反而是它唯一的价值来源，而非因其有价值才产生这些结果。

That it is literally hanging on by the sunk cost of the fact that it's been repeated for fifteen years, and everyone who has dug their heels in and just decided that this is how it is, that they can just kind of pass off the fact that the infrastructure has exploded, that the regulatory system has completely acquiesced and admitted that this isn't going anywhere, and there's nothing that they can do about it, and that it has increasingly become interconnected with all of the mainstream financial system and tools that we are expecting it to be when it's adopted, that you can hand wave all that away as if that's the only reason it's valuable, rather than those things occurred because it's valuable.

而我听到的只有这种绝望又可悲的论调：'我们对了十五年'。

When all I hear is like this desperate kind of pathetic clinging to we've been right for fifteen years.

你们就是错了。

You're just wrong.

确实感觉这就是我们现在的处境。

It really kinda feels like that's the place we've gotten to.

那些比特币反对者纯粹是靠着惯性在硬撑。

Is that buttcoiners are entirely hanging on just because of inertia.

他们已经无话可说了。

They don't have any arguments left.

他们还在重复2011年6月以来的那套陈词滥调，至今没有丝毫进展。

They're saying the same shit they've been saying since June 2011, and it still has not even slightly come to fruition.

他们错得如此离谱，以至于不得不发布一份虚伪的道歉声明，在毫无新证据、新解释的情况下仍坚持己见，甚至不明白如果把比特币代码复制到别人电脑上修改规则，就完全丧失了比特币的价值。

They have been so wrong that they have to publish a fake sarcastic apology in which they still defend the fact that they are right with no new evidence, no new explanation, and still doesn't even know that if you copied Bitcoin onto somebody's computer and changed the rules, that it has none of the value of Bitcoin.

他们至今连这个事物为何具有价值的最基本运作原理都没搞懂。

They still don't even get the most fundamental and basic operation and reason that this thing has any value at all.

从心理定位的角度来看，无论是自信姿态、理解状态还是防御心态，观察个体立场，他们的心理框架是怎样的？

And from the context of, like, the mental position like, the positioning of confidence and, like, understanding and and or defensiveness, like like, look at the individual position, like, what's the mental framing?

这篇帖子充满怨气。

This post is bitter.

这篇帖子既怨气冲天又充满防备。

This post is bitter and defensive.

心怀怨气且充满防备的人其实心知肚明自己不知所云。

Bitter and defensive people know that they do not know what they are talking about.

这是他们避免向自己承认事实的方式。

That is their way to avoid admitting it to themselves.

这一点对比特币信徒同样适用。

And this goes this is true for Bitcoiners.

这对山寨币玩家也同样适用。

This is true for shitcoiners.

这对法币拥护者、极端主义者和传统金融人士同样成立。

This is true for Fiat, Maxis, and TradFi people.

心怀怨恨且充满戒心的人之所以普遍如此，是因为他们缺乏立足的根基。

Bitter and defensive people almost universally are that way because they do not have a foundation to stand on.

我不禁要思考这需要多长时间。

And I just have to wonder how long it takes.

对某些人来说，需要多久才会喜欢上比特币？或者在他们使用比特币后，银行是否会在幕后为他们的支付系统结算所有交易？

How long does it take for some people to like, will they be better after they're using Bitcoin or that their bank is settling all of the transactions, like, behind the scenes for their payment system?

这会不会像九十年代的老太太，她坚称自己是你的祖母并发誓绝不上网，声称毫无用处，却不知道2005年她的座机电话其实是通过互联网连接的？

And would it be like, you know, the old lady in the nineteen nineties who swears she's your grandmother swearing never gonna use the Internet, I don't have any use for it, and she doesn't even know that her landline phone in 2005 is actually being connected over the Internet?

电话交换网络的核心已转向数字分组交换？

That the backbone of the phone switching network has switched to a digital packet switching?

未来会是这样吗？

Is that what it'll be?

就像彼得·希夫那样，到死都会对比特币愤愤不平，挥舞着拳头，而比特币已涨到200万美元。

They'll just like like Peter Schiff will just die angry at Bitcoin, like shaking his fist and Bitcoin's $2,000,000.

或者我希望我们不会这么快失去彼得·希夫。

Or I hope we don't lose Peter Schiff that soon.

或许比特币会涨到2000万美元，这取决于其成功与美元持续且不可避免的衰落之间的较量。

Maybe it'll be $20,000,000 weighing the various success of Bitcoin versus to the continued and completely expected and unavoidable decline of the dollar.

这些比特币支持者真愚蠢。

They're stupid Bitcoiners.

它会归零的。

It's going to zero.

它不会长期保持全球最大货币网络的地位。

It's not gonna be the world's largest monetary network for long.

毫无用处。

No utility.

我现在就能复制它。

I can copy it right now.

我能想象，如果我说英语毫无用处。

I can imagine if I just said English has no utility.

英语毫无价值，我随时可以复制它，你们投资英语简直愚蠢至极。

There's no value in the English language and I could just copy it anytime I wanted to and you're all stupid for investing in it.

我简直不敢相信你们居然花钱雇人教英语。

I can't I can't believe you actually pay people to teach English.

就是这么愚蠢。

That's how dumb that is.

这个说法就是这么荒谬。

That's how stupid that statement is.

更疯狂的是人们居然看不出来这一点。

And it's wild that people don't see that to me.

大概是因为我深陷历史网络、语言和协议概念的探索中。

Like, I guess I'm just so I'm so deep down the historical networks, language, and protocol concept.

这确实是我花费所有时间钻研的东西。

Like, that is that is literally the thing I spend all of my time digging into.

它让我着迷。

It fascinates me.

现在越来越难理解人们为何看不透这一点。

And it's becoming harder to see how people don't see it.

我正逐渐与普通人脱节，越来越不理解他们的世界。

I'm losing touch with I'm losing touch with the normie.

但我会继续尝试解释清楚。

But I'll keep trying to explain it.

我会继续努力阐明这一点。

I'll keep trying to explain it.

要知道，如果你只听《金融时报》的，我真不知道你会做成什么样。

You know, if you had listened to to Financial Times, I don't know how you would have done.

你肯定会错过一些重要的东西。

You certainly would have missed out on some stuff.

更可悲的是，我敢保证我甚至都没深入研究过——说不定我们节目还做过相关专题——但我确信有人会拿某个垃圾币来举例，说因为它用了智能合约所以真有实用价值。

And what's even sadder is I guarantee you I haven't even looked into it, and and maybe we've even done like a piece on this show, but I guarantee you somebody's posted about like a shit coin that actually has some sort of utility because of smart contracts.

我敢打包票。

I guarantee it.

要是谁能证明《金融时报》从没刊登过这种内容，我当场给你转10美元。

If someone can prove that nobody at the financial financial times has published that, I'll send you $10.

我送你一个10美元的APP。

I'll send you a $10 app.

我给你转10000聪（比特币最小单位）。

I'll send you 10,000 sats.

我简直无法相信《金融时报》的档案库里会没有关于区块链（非比特币）的文章。

I just find it insanely unlikely that there's not some sort of blockchain, not Bitcoin article in the Financial Times, catalog.

当初所有不懂比特币的人都是这么给自己留退路的：'好吧，这东西勉强能用，毕竟区块链技术很酷'。

That was the first way that everyone who didn't understand Bitcoin hedged their bets to be like, okay, well, it's sort of working because blockchain is cool.

不过话说回来，我刚读到这个就忍不住笑了。

But anyway, I just read this and I kinda laughed.

我确信这真的只是个玩笑，你知道的，纯粹是为了好玩。

And I'm sure this was really just done in jest and, you know, it was really for fun.

这其中确实带着一丝苦涩。

There is definitely a tinge of bitter to this.

最近在这个所谓的比特币时代或周期中，我注意到最明显的是那些‘屁股囤币者’在大量铺垫和心态崩溃。

And the thing I've noticed more than anything in this recent quote unquote era or this cycle of Bitcoin is the amount of ground seeding and mental capitulation of the butt cooners out there.

他们不得不改变谈论它的方式。

They're having to change how they talk about it.

这看起来还挺有趣的。

And that's kind of it's just kinda interesting to see.

所以如果你想持有那些难以复制的比特币——因为它提供的价值几乎无可替代——想想这有多难。

So if you want to hold your Bitcoin that can't be easily copied because it provides value that almost nothing else can, think about think about how difficult it is.

去找找看，世界上有什么东西是你无法复制更多的。

Find something, anything that you just can't make more of in the whole world.

随便什么，说出来。

Anything, name it.

如果你想真正拥有这样一件东西，给自己买个Jade Plus硬件钱包吧，用我的折扣码GUY（guy）可以打九折。

If you want to actually own the one thing that you can reliably say that about, grab yourself a Jade Plus hardware wallet, and you can get 10% off with my discount code GUY, g u y.

特别好记，就是我的名字。

Very easy to remember, it's my name.

如果你想尝试闪电网络，或者想要一个设计精美、操作超级简单直观的移动钱包，可以去看看Synonym团队开发的BitKit钱包（b i t k i t）。

And if you were looking to explore Lightning or you want a really great mobile wallet that just has a beautiful design and is super simple and intuitive to use, check out BitKit, b I t k I t, the BitKit wallet by the guys at Synonym.

我们下期《比特币之声》再见。

And I will catch you guys on the next episode of Bitcoin Audible.

感谢所有在Fountain上助推、在Noster上打赏的朋友们，你们随手转来的聪（比特币最小单位）虽然谁都能复制，但对我意义非凡。

Shout out to everybody who boosts on Fountain, who zaps me on Noster, always loving the sats that, you know, could be easily copied by anybody.

但你们懂的，这些支持让我倍感珍贵，我真心感激大家以完全自愿的方式支持这档节目。

But, you know, they feel import they feel special to me, and I really appreciate how much you guys support the show in a totally non obligatory way.

这就是价值互换嘛。

You know, just value for value.

喜欢节目就告诉我一声。

Let me know you like the show.

如果我哪里说错了，就打赏21个聪让我好受点。

Let me know I was wrong about something and zap me 21 sats to, ease the pain.

爱你们。

Love you guys.

向音频极客们致敬，我们下期《比特币之声》不见不散。

Shout out to the audio naughts, and I will catch you all on the next episode of Bitcoin Audible.

在那之前，各位保重。

And until then everybody, Take it easy, guys.

事实是顽固的东西，无论我们的愿望、倾向或激情如何驱使，都无法改变事实与证据的状态。

Facts are stubborn things, and whatever may be our wishes, our inclinations, or the dictates of our passion, they cannot alter the state of facts and evidence.

——约翰·亚当斯

John Adams.