全球股市观察记录

你知道被动固定收益ETF仅覆盖美国

Did you know that passive fixed income ETFs only capture about 50% of The U.

国债

S.

市场的50%吗？

Public bond market?

但通过摩根大通资产管理旗下的主动型固定收益ETF，我们能帮助您覆盖100%的美国

But with JPMorgan Asset Management's active fixed income ETFs, we can help you capture 100% of The U.

国债

S.

市场，并探索双倍的投资机会。

Public bond market and explore twice as many opportunities.

访问jpmorgan.com/getactive了解更多信息。

Visit jpmorgan.com/getactive to learn more.

摩根大通资产管理是摩根大通公司旗下资产管理业务的品牌名称。

JPMorgan Asset Management is the brand name for the asset management business of JPMorgan Chase and Co.

及其全球附属机构。

And its affiliates worldwide.

本通讯由FINRA成员摩根大通分销服务公司发布。

This communication is issued by JPMorgan Distribution Services Incorporated, member of FINRA.

那么雷切尔·里夫斯的关键新预算对你意味着什么？

So what will Rachel Reeves' pivotal new budget mean for you?

是否有一个创新智库刚刚提出了替代印花税的解决方案？

Has an innovative think tank just come up with a solution for replacing stamp duty?

你好。

Hello.

我是斯蒂芬·麦戈文。

I'm Steph McGovern.

我是罗伯特·佩斯顿。

And I'm Robert Peston.

我们想向你推荐我们的播客《金钱真相》，在那里我们回答这些问题，试图理解英国的经济状况。

And we wanted to recommend you our podcast, the is money, where we answer questions like these to try and make sense of The UK's economy.

听着。

Look.

我们明白。

We get it.

你是个有眼光的人。

You're a discerning sort of person.

毕竟你是彭博的听众。

You're a Bloomberg listener after all.

所以我们不会浪费你的时间。

So we're not gonna waste your time.

这就是为什么值得你在播客应用中搜索'The Rest is Money'或在YouTube上观看我们的节目。

Here's why it's worth you searching for the rest is money in your podcast app or watching us on YouTube.

每周两次，'The Rest is Money'会告诉你所有需要了解的、影响我们生活的金融事务：财政与货币政策、住房、移民，甚至商业街动态。

Twice a week, the rest is money tells you everything you need to know about the money matters affecting all our lives, fiscal and monetary policy, housing, immigration, even the high street.

没错。

Yeah.

我们为充满好奇的头脑打造对话。

We do conversations for curious minds.

这里没有枯燥的讨论。

No dry discussions here.

这就是为什么我们要与杰出而迷人的人物对话。

That's why we speak to brilliant and fascinating people.

没错。

Yeah.

近期嘉宾包括丹·尼德尔、阿特·拉弗、摩根大通的凯伦·沃德，甚至财政大臣本人。

Recent guests include Dan Needle, Art Laffer, JP Morgan's Karen Ward, and even the chancellor herself.

何不给我们一个机会？

So why not give us a try?

搜索'the rest is money'。

Search for the rest is money.

彭博音频工作室。

Bloomberg Audio Studios.

播客。

Podcasts.

广播。

Radio.

新闻。

News.

这里是彭博监察播客节目。

This is the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast.

东部时间每周工作日早上7点，通过彭博商业应用在Apple CarPlay或Android Auto上观看我们的直播。

Catch us live weekdays at 7AM eastern on Apple CarPlay or Android Auto with the Bloomberg Business app.

在您获取播客的任何平台按需收听，或在YouTube上观看我们的直播。

Listen on demand wherever you get your podcasts or watch us live on YouTube.

现在正值十二月中旬，标普指数上涨16%，纳斯达克指数上涨21%。

Just set the stage here in kinda mid December, S and P up 16%, Nasdaq up 21%.

债券市场也呈现出相当稳健的收益表现。

Some pretty solid results out of the bond market as well.

个位数的较高回报率。

High single digit returns.

我们接下来该何去何从？

Where do we go from here?

尽管年初有些波动，但这一年整体表现相当稳健。

Because that was a pretty solid year despite some, volatility in the beginning of the year.

罗斯·梅菲尔德加入了我们。

Ross Mayfield joins us.

他是贝尔德投资公司的投资策略师，负责私人财富管理。

He's an investment strategist at Baird, a private wealth management.

罗斯，让我们为2026年做个铺垫。

Ross, let's set the stage for for 2026 here.

最近你和客户们都在讨论些什么话题？

What are the conversations you're having with your clients these days?

是的。

Yeah.

我是说，在市场创下历史新高之际，许多投资者通常的担忧暂时被抛诸脑后，现在主要的担忧反而是市场本身的强劲表现。

I mean, with the market at all time highs, a lot of the typical, worries that we hear from investors have been tossed out for the moment, and the main worry is just the strength itself.

对吧？

Right?

我们是否已经好过头了，是否正在为2026年的失望埋下伏笔？

Are we have things been too good, are we being set up for a disappointing 2026?

我认为预期管理很重要。

I I think expectation management matters.

对吧？

Right?

显然，我们不可能年复一年地保持15%、20%以上的高增长，如果2026年继续上涨，这将是连续第四年增长了。

Obviously, we we can't keep printing high teens, 20% plus, years year after year, and this would be the fourth year of gains if 2026 is positive.

但在牛市中这并不罕见，而且随着我们翻开2026年的篇章，市场仍有许多顺风因素。

But in a bull market, that's not uncommon, and there are a lot of tailwinds, for the market as we turn the page on 2025.

所以我们相当乐观，只是需要管理好这些预期。

So we're pretty optimistic, but just managing those expectations.

我也认为，各位，这个市场令人鼓舞的一点是昨天道指创下新高，标普500也勉强收涨，但我们基本是在没有大型科技股、没有那些热门AI股的情况下做到的。

I also think, guys, what's kind of, encouraging about this market is yesterday, we were able to hit records on the Dow, squeezed out one for the S and P 500, but we did it largely without big tech names, without those big AI names.

所以罗斯，你认为这次涨势正在扩大吗？我们是否可能在2026年看到——我不想说领导权变更，但至少是更广泛的上涨行情。

So, Ross, do you think that this rally is broadening out and we could see I don't wanna say a change in leadership, but at least a broader rally in 2026.

是的。

Yeah.

毫无疑问。

Absolutely.

我是说，本轮涨势中主要担忧之一是什么？

I mean, for most of this rally, what has been one of the main concerns?

集中度问题，涨势可能过于狭窄，过度聚焦AI交易和'七巨头'。

The concentration, the the potential narrowness of the rally, the focus on the AI trade and the Mag seven.

但现实情况有所不同。

And the reality is is different.

在表象之下，你会发现金融板块等类别其实表现不错。

Under the surface, you've got things like financials working.

医疗保健板块在多年低迷后实现了相当不错的反弹。

Healthcare has staged a really nice comeback after a lot of years underwater.

工业板块表现稳健，非必需消费品板块也正重新突破。

Industrials have held their own, discretionary is breaking back out.

因此你看到许多其他实体经济、周期性和利率敏感板块都在发力。

So you have a lot of other kind of real economy, cyclical, rate sensitive names working.

显然，降息措施刺激了这些市场领域的活跃度。

Obviously, the rate cuts have helped spur some activity in those corners of the market.

基本面也有望同步扩大。

And the fundamentals are expected to broaden out too.

就在上个季度，标普493指数实现了两位数的盈利增长。

Even this last quarter, saw the S and P four ninety three with double digit earnings growth.

如果观察2026年的盈利预期，基本面持续扩宽是普遍共识。

And if you look at the earnings estimates for 2026, the expectation is a continued broadening in the fundamentals.

因此我认为这种趋势在价格走势中延续也是合乎逻辑的。

So I think it would make sense for that to continue in the price action as well.

嘿，罗斯。

Hey, Ross.

美国企业确实在这方面为支撑市场做出了贡献。

Corporate America has really done its part here to support this market.

过去几个季度的盈利表现非常、非常强劲。

Earnings have come in really, really strong for the last several quarters.

你认为2026年的盈利能足够支撑这个市场吗？

Do you think the earnings power for 2026 is enough to support this market?

是的。

Yeah.

绝对可以。

Absolutely.

我是说，牛市初期上涨建立在估值扩张基础上，这从熊市低谷反弹时很典型。

I mean, we we had the early part of a bull market rally built on multiple expansion, which is really typical coming out of a bear market low.

而2025年盈利接过接力棒，真正成为了市场的主导力量。

And then earnings have taken the baton and and really carried the day here in 2025.

而且我认为2026年情况也会如此。

And and I think that that that will be the case in 2026 as well.

盈利增长预计普遍会在14%左右。

Earnings growth, you know, expected broadly to be in the 14% range.

即使降到10%左右，也足以支撑牛市持续。

Even if that comes down to something like 10%, that's more than enough to to carry a bull market through.

再次强调，或许我们需要管理预期，个位数回报或低双位数回报可能是我们的基本预期。

Again, maybe we manage expectations, maybe maybe single digit returns, low double digit returns is is kind of where we set our base case.

但话说回来，经过三年接近20%或更高的增长后，这已经绰绰有余，而且对于牛市第四、五年的表现来说也相当典型。

But again, after three years of of high teen or 20% plus growth, that's more than enough and that's pretty typical for what a fourth, fifth year of a bull market might look like.

因此我认为盈利增长、利润率扩张以及这种盈利增长的广度，完全足以支撑当前市场。

So I think the earnings growth, the profit margin expansion, the breadth of that earnings growth is more than enough to carry the day.

而且我认为这是反驳'我们处于泡沫中'这一论点的主要依据之一。

And I think it's the main one of the main pushbacks against the argument that we're in a bubble.

总体而言，基本面已跟上价格涨幅，而这在大多数真正的泡沫中并不成立。

The fundamentals have kept up with price by and large, and that's not the case in in most real bubbles.

但是，罗斯，随着我们考虑在年底这几天重新调整投资组合，现在是买入落后股票的时候了吗？

But, Ross, as we look to maybe rejigger the portfolio as we, you know, near these final days of the year, is it time to buy the laggards?

如果是的话，哪些股票引起了你的注意？

And if so, what's sticking out to you?

你知道，我不确定是否有必要买入那些表现落后的股票。

You know, I don't know if you need to buy the laggards.

我认为你可以简单地扩大投资范围。

I think you can just broaden out.

就像我们之前提到的，一些非科技领域已经开始显现出初步的强势迹象。

I mean, as we mentioned earlier, there is there is strength, nascent strength in some of these non tech areas.

我极力建议投资者重新考虑其投资组合配置的地方是国际市场——虽然今年表现不算落后，但在过去十五年间大多时候都处于劣势。

The place that I am shouting from the rooftops for for investors to consider their portfolio positioning is international, which has not been a laggard this year, but has been a laggard for most of the last fifteen years.

因此我认为很多投资者已经对国际市场失去了信心。

And so I think a lot of investors have thrown in the towel on international.

而现实是，我们提到过美国市场的广泛上涨，但这实际上是一场全球性的牛市。

And the reality is that this bull market, we mentioned the breadth within The US, but it's really a global bull market.

从很多方面来看，市场引领者其实在美国之外。

And in a lot of ways, the leadership is outside of The US.

你看看日本，看看欧洲，再看看一些新兴市场的名字。

You look to Japan, you look to Europe, you look to some of the emerging market names.

美元走弱确实是个催化剂，但海外也存在着基本面的强劲支撑。

A weaker dollar has been a real catalyst, but there is, you know, fundamental strength coming from abroad as well.

我认为许多投资者在结构上对国际配置比例过低，他们需要做大量工作才能恢复到市场权重或中性国际配置水平。

I think a lot of investors are structurally underweight international and could do, you know, could do a lot of work just to get back to kind of a market weight or a neutral weight international.

这就是我在与投资者讨论如何为25年收尾时主要强调的内容之一。

That that is one of the main things that I'm talking about with investors as we close the book on '25 here.

罗斯，让我们跟进一下国际市场的布局。

Ross, let's follow-up on the international play there.

你对发达市场还是新兴市场更有信心？

Do you do you feel more comfortable with the developed markets or emerging markets?

因为最近三五个月里，我们听到人们谈论新兴市场的次数比过去一段时间要多得多。

Because we've heard folks talking up in emerging markets more in the last three, four, five months than they have in a while.

是的。

Yeah.

绝对如此。

Absolutely.

我是说，这这确实...我认为一切都始于且终于美元疲软的故事。

I mean, there there is I I think it starts and ends with a weak dollar story.

对吧？

Right?

如果你看看今年，这这确实是一个美元疲软的故事。

And if you look at, this year, it's been it's been a weak dollar story.

但如果你展望2026年，考虑到美联储持续降息，考虑到新一任潜在美联储主席可能希望继续实施宽松政策。

But if you look at 2026, you know, you think about the Fed continuing to cut rates, you think about what a new potential Fed chair might wanna do and continue to ease.

然后你环顾全球，会发现各国收益率都在攀升。

And then you look around the world and you see global yields heading higher.

日本、欧洲、澳大利亚...许多央行都在讨论下一步将采取加息行动。

Japan and Europe, Australia, can a lot of central banks are talking about their next move being rate hikes.

因此，如果你考虑利率差异，确实可以构建一个美元持续疲软的案例。

And so if you think about interest rate differentials, you could really build a case for a continued weakness in the dollar.

这往往更能提振新兴市场。

That does tend to boost emerging markets more.

我觉得投资一些发达市场会让我更放心些。

I think I'm a little more comfortable going to some of those developed markets.

要知道，日本在沉寂三十多年后正上演着惊人的复苏故事。

You know, Japan has been an incredible story breaking out after thirty plus years underwater.

但总体而言，我认为如果你是典型的长期投资者，或许只需买入MSCI除美国外全球指数的大部分仓位就够了。

But by and large, think you can you know, if you're if you're just a typical long term investor, you can probably just buy buy the bulk of it, you know, the the MSCI all country ex US and call it a day.

因为我再次强调，关键问题在于本土偏好和长达十五年的表现不佳。

Because I do again, I think the main thing is you've got a home country bias and you've had fifteen years of underperformance.

我想很多投资者可能持有的国际资产极少，甚至完全没有。

I think a lot of investors probably probably own very little, if if any, international at all.

所以简单地广泛持有一个国际大盘指数就能达到目的。

So just a a blanket ownership of of a broad international index will do the job.

Ross，非常感谢你加入我们。

Ross, thanks so much for joining us.

真的非常感谢。

Really appreciate it.

Ross Mayfield，贝尔德私人财富管理公司的投资策略师。

Ross Mayfield, investment strategist at Baird Private Wealth Management.

请继续关注我们。

Stay with us.

接下来还有更多来自彭博监视的精彩内容。

More from Bloomberg Surveillance coming up after this.

被动投资的成本是否比你想象的更高？

Is passive investing costing you more than you think?

主动型ETF旨在超越基准，而被动型ETF则满足于跟随基准。

Active ETFs aim to beat the benchmark, while passive ETFs just settle for them.

采用主动策略，助您构建更强大的投资组合。

Embrace an active strategy that helps you build stronger portfolios.

与全球主动型固定收益ETF领导者摩根大通资产管理合作投资。

Invest with a global leader in active fixed income ETFs with JPMorgan Asset Management.

访问jpmorgan.com/getactive了解更多信息。

Visit jpmorgan.com/getactive to learn more.

摩根大通资产管理是摩根大通集团旗下全球资产管理业务的品牌名称。

JPMorgan Asset Management is the brand name for the asset management business of JPMorgan Chase and Co.

及其全球分支机构。

And its affiliates worldwide.

本通讯由FINRA成员摩根大通分销服务公司发布。

This communication is issued by JPMorgan Distribution Services Incorporated, member of FINRA.

大家好，欢迎收听。

Hello, and welcome.

这里是米歇尔·侯赛因秀。

This is the Michelle Hussain Show.

我是米歇尔·侯赛因。

I'm Michelle Hussain.

我和像埃隆·马斯克这样的人交谈。

I speak with people like Elon Musk.

我觉得我已经做得够多了。

Think I've done enough.

还有珊达·莱梅斯。

And Shonda Rhimes.

那真是太可爱了。

That's so cute.

这里将成为每个周末你都能信赖的场所，通过一场关键对话来帮助理解这个世界。

This will be a place where every weekend, you can count on one essential conversation to help make sense of the world.

所以请加入我，收听并订阅Bloomberg周末的米歇尔·侯赛因秀，无论你在哪里获取播客。

So please join me, listen, and subscribe to the Michelle Hussein Show from Bloomberg weekend, wherever you get your podcasts.

你问的问题确实很有趣。

You certainly ask interesting questions.

你正在收听的是Bloomberg Surveillance播客节目。

You're listening to the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast.

东部时间工作日下午7点到10点，我们直播见。

Catch us live weekday afternoons from seven to 10AM eastern.

通过彭博商业应用在Apple CarPlay和Android Auto上收听。

Listen on Apple CarPlay and Android Auto with the Bloomberg Business App.

或者在YouTube上观看我们的直播。

Or watch us live on YouTube.

请到普莉娅·米斯拉，摩根大通资产管理公司核心增强型债券ETF投资组合经理。

Priya Misra joins us here, core plus bond ETF portfolio manager at JPMorgan Asset Management.

普莉娅，非常感谢你来到演播室。

Priya, thanks so much for joining us here in studio.

外面有点冷，所以我们特别感谢你离开帕克大道上崭新的摩根大通大厦——那栋楼简直太棒了。

It's a little chilly out, so we appreciate you leaving the confines of the brand new JPMorgan tower on Park Avenue, which is just awesome.

我每天去宾州车站都会路过那里。

I walk by it every day to Penn Station.

他们在那里的工作做得非常出色。

They did a phenomenal job there.

普莉娅，想听听你对美联储的看法。

Priya, love to get your thoughts on the Fed here.

我们看到古尔斯比先生的一些评论，他是持异议者，但他表示需要更多数据。

We're seeing some comments from mister Goolsby, who was a dissenter, but he he says I kinda need more data.

不过他说，如果数据支持的话，利率还有更多下调空间。

But, boy, rates can come down more, he says, if the data warrants it.

你从本周美联储会议中得出了什么结论？

What did you take away from the Fed meeting this week?

好的。

Sure.

谢谢邀请我参加节目。

So thanks for having me.

一直很享受这样的对话。

Always enjoy the conversation.

我认为美联储做得非常出色的一点是保留了政策灵活性。

So I think what the Fed did brilliantly was to retain optionality.

下周我们将迎来大量数据发布。

So we have a lot of data coming up next week.

在1月会议前，我们还将获得另一份就业报告。

We're also gonna get another payroll report before the next Jan meeting.

因此他们创造了灵活性——如果数据表现疲软，尤其是劳动力市场方面，他们完全可以进一步降息，但他们也暗示进一步降息的门槛更高了。

So they created the optionality that if the data is weak particularly on the labor front that they can absolutely cut more but they did sort of signal that the bar to cut any further is higher.

你知道，我认为——你也提到了古尔斯比主席——

So you know and I think and you know you you reference President Goolsby.

我认为美联储内部存在分歧，因为劳动力市场和通胀的风险都很高，而不同官员对这两种风险的侧重不同。

I think there's a division of the Fed because the risks to the labor market and the risk to inflation are both high and different Fed officials are putting more emphasis on one risk versus another.

我认为古尔斯比主席可能属于更关注通胀的阵营。

I think President Goolsby is probably in the inflation camp.

他担心今年通胀几乎没有取得进展。

Know sort of worried that inflation has not seen much progress this year.

在我们看来，如果观察通胀细节，服务通胀和工资通胀都在走低。

Our end we think that inflation if you look at the details of inflation service inflation is heading lower wage inflation is heading lower.

因此，在我们的基本预测中，我们认为美联储在真正达到中性利率前还会有几次降息，但他们并不急于行动，可能会在未来六个月内逐步实施。

So in our base case we do see a couple more cuts you know by the time the Fed actually reaches neutral but there's no urgency so they can cut this you know over the next six months.

当然，如果劳动力市场疲软，失业率上升——这正是我们密切关注的指标。

Of course if the labor market is weak and that unemployment rate and that's what we're watching.

如果失业率持续攀升，我认为美联储将会采取更为激进的措施。

If that continues to move higher I think this Fed is going be a lot more aggressive.

没错，鲍威尔甚至暗示过这一点——他用不那么直白的言辞表示劳动力市场可能比我们想象的更为疲软。

Yeah and Powell even signaled that right that the labor market he was saying in not so many words is probably weaker than we think it is.

而且我们目前处理的都是滞后数据。

Also we're dealing with backward looking data at the moment.

所以我们仍在等待更多新数据的到来。

So we're still waiting again for that more data to come in.

但普莉娅，我们知道信贷利差很紧，但你说这是合理的。

But Priya, we know that credit spreads are tight, but you say they're justified.

是的，如果观察企业资产负债表的基本面，企业实际上并没有过度加杠杆。如果债务水平持续上升，那些原本负债不多的企业大规模发债，这会让我有点担心。

Yes, if I look at fundamentals of company balance sheets companies have not really levered up that would make me a little nervous if the debt levels kept increasing a large debt issues done by companies that didn't have much debt.

我们并不太担心基本面问题，无论是盈利、杠杆还是利息保障比率。

We're not that concerned about the fundamentals of whether it's earnings or leverage or even interest coverage ratio.

利差方面，我认为利差处于区间较窄的一端是有充分理由的。

Spreads so I think spreads are at the tighter end of the range for good reason.

我们略微谨慎地认为一月份将会有大量债券供应。

Are a little cautious that there's going to be a lot of supply in January.

通常情况如此，而这次如果除了AI资本支出公司外，其他企业部门也决定需要筹集资金——无论是用于AI投资、业务整合还是并购相关融资。

There typically is and this time if the rest of the corporate sector beyond just the AI CapEx companies are deciding they need to raise money either for investment in AI in how they're going to incorporate in their business or M and A related financing.

我们认为可能会出现大量债券供应，而这正是一个机会。

We think there could be a lot of supply and that is an opportunity.

虽然不担心，但我们仍保留部分现金在场外观望，等待供应出现时买入。

Wouldn't be worried but we are keeping some cash on the sidelines waiting to buy when that supply comes in.

有意思。

Interesting.

那么广义债券市场的情况如何？

So does the bond market broadly defined?

他们是否担心这些AI支出以及与之相关的债务？

Are they concerned about some of this AI spending and and the and the debt associated with the AI spending?

因为我看到其中一些发行方。

Because I look at some of these issuers.

我购买了他们的债券。

I buy their bonds.

这些都是优质企业，现金流充沛，资产负债表健康。

I mean, these are great companies, great cash flows, clean balance sheets.

有多少我就要多少。

I mean, I'd be as much as you got, I'll take it.

是的。

Yeah.

我认为，当出现大额交易时，必须合理定价。

I think, know, when you come in with a very large deal, it has to be priced.

可以说当时市场有些供应消化不良。

So there was some, I would say supply indigestion.

好的。

Okay.

九月份你们面临大量供应时。

When you got a lot of that supply in September.

看看所有交易后的定价，市场发生了什么变化，所有利差都收紧了。

Look at all the post deal pricing, what has happened to the market, all those spreads are tighter.

我是说甲骨文的信用违约互换已经扩大了。

So I mean Oracle has had their CDS widening.

我认为人们担心他们还需要发行多少债务。

I think there's concerns around how much more debt they're going to need to issue.

但总的来说，我不认为信贷市场感到紧张。

But broadly, I don't think the credit market is nervous.

这里存在估值问题，我是否需要一些新发行折让来承接大部分？

There's a valuation question and do I want a little bit of a new issue concession to take down a large part?

我认为存在这种情况。

I think there's some of that.

看看这条几乎没有变陡的利差曲线。

Look at the spread curve that has not really steepened.

我认为市场对长期公司债券的需求很大。

I think there's a lot of demand for long and corporate paper.

关键在于综合收益率水平。

It's the all in level of yield.

虽然利差很窄，但看看综合收益率——你能获得5%-6%的高质量投资级债券收益。

Those spreads are narrow, But look at all in yields if you're getting 6%, five-six percent high quality investment grade debt.

这就是为什么我们看到需求持续存在，而且我认为供应问题不会持续超过那周。

I think that's why we're seeing continued demand and I don't think the supply will be an issue beyond just that week.

或许会出现小幅利差走阔。

Maybe there's a little bit of spread widening.

Priya，你对这些公司怎么看？这么多大型收购案，这么多企业都在举债？

Priya, what what's your thinking with these companies, all these big buyouts and so many companies taking on debt?

因为我们都知道Netflix收购华纳兄弟探索公司的交易包含了590亿美元的过桥贷款。

Because we know that Netflix's deal to buy Warner Brothers Discovery includes $59,000,000,000 in bridge loans.

你是否担心企业通过承担如此巨额债务来完成这些交易？

Are you concerned at all that companies are getting these deals done by taking on such massive debt?

我认为这始终是个值得关注的问题，无论是并购活动还是信贷环境恶化。

I think that's always a concern again, BO activity or if there's worsening of the credit.

要知道，显然会有一些案例可能做得过火，但总体而言我们尚未看到太多由债务驱动的泡沫。

Think, you know, obviously there'll be some cases where maybe it's overdone on average so far we haven't seen too much of debt fueled sort of bubbles.

如果明年信贷市场开放且美联储放宽政策，我们是否会走到那一步？我仍然认为企业的综合收益率并不算太低。

Know do we get there next year if the credit markets are open and the Fed's easing I would still say all in yields are not that low for companies.

你拿到的可不是免费资金。

You're not getting free money.

因此我们对某些特定领域并不那么担忧。

And so we are not that concerned at certain pockets.

还记得几周前或几个月前那次'蟑螂狩猎'吗？

Remember the cockroach hunting a few weeks ago or months ago.

当时我们都很担心。

We were all worried.

我认为你确实要尽量减少'蟑螂'，做大量信用调查来确认公司举债后能否实现生产力提升？

I think you really want to minimize cockroaches do a lot of credit work to know that if a company is taking on debt, will they see the productivity gains?

他们能否看到规模经济效应和并购带来的效益，这将是个大问题。

Can they see the economies of scale and M and A that's going to be a big issue.

我们将重点分析那些正在合并的公司。

We're going to be analyzing to companies merging.

我们是否认为他们能保持利润率？

Do we think that they can keep margins?

他们能够偿还这些债务。

They can make those debt payments.

到目前为止，我们尚未看到令人担忧的情况，但我们必须保持警惕。

So far, we haven't seen things that would worry us, but we have to stay vigilant.

因此我认为很多人对2026年持相当乐观态度，这一切都始于——我认为经济状况相当良好。

So I think a lot of folks, are fairly constructive on 2026 and it all starts with, I think the economy is in pretty good shape.

我认为我们将看到经济出现一些不错的增长。

I think we're gonna see some decent growth out of the economy.

摩根大通资产管理那边你们也是这么认为的吗？

Is that kind of where you guys are over at JPMorgan Asset Management?

是的。

We are.

我们认为正处于软着陆阶段。

We think we're in a soft landing.

过去两年我们一直处于这种状态。

We've been in one for the last two years.

这很大程度上基于自下而上的公司基本面，以及消费者资产负债表平均状况——无论是企业部门还是消费者部门看起来都非常健康，我认为这就是经济具有韧性的原因。

A lot of that is based on bottom up company fundamentals as well as consumer fundamentals on average balance sheets of the corporate sector and the consumer look very strong and I think that's why the economy has been resilient.

今年我们经历了太多冲击，从关税、移民到地缘政治，但经济还是撑过来了。

We've had so many shocks this year, right, right from tariffs immigration geopolitical and yet the economy sort of powered through.

在我们的基准预测中，未来一年仍将保持这种态势。

In our base case that remains the case over the next year.

我对劳动力市场有些担忧。

I am a little concerned about the labor market.

好的。

Okay.

我没有听到企业表示他们会增加招聘。

I'm not hearing companies saying that they're going to increase hiring.

所以这可能是一次无就业复苏。

So maybe this is a jobless recovery.

我们必须观察这种情况能持续多久推动消费，裁员是我正在关注的。

We have to see how long does that continue to power the consumer layoffs is what I'm watching.

我认为这会破坏部分现状，但届时美联储将积极开始降息。

I think that would unravel some of this, but I think the Fed then aggressively starts cutting rates.

好的。

Alright.

摩根大通资产管理公司的Priya Misra，核心增强债券ETF投资组合经理。

Priya Misra of JPMorgan Asset Management, Core Plus Bond ETF Portfolio Manager.

感谢你从摩根大通总部过来进行这次简短交流。

Thanks for taking the short walk over from JPMorgan's headquarters here.

请继续关注我们。

Stay with us.

稍后我们将为您带来更多彭博监测的内容。

More from Bloomberg Surveillance coming up after this.

我是卡罗尔·马瑟。

I'm Carol Masser.

我是蒂姆·斯特内维克，诚邀您加入我们的彭博商业周刊每日播客。

And I'm Tim Stenevek inviting you to join us for the Bloomberg Businessweek daily podcast.

现在每天，我们都会为您带来杂志报道，帮助全球领导者保持领先。

Now every day, we are bringing you reporting from the magazine that helps global leaders stay ahead.

我们深入洞察人物、公司和今日复杂经济中的趋势。

We've got insight on the people, the companies, and trends that are today's complex economy.

没错，蒂姆。

That's right, Tim.

我们全面覆盖全球商业、金融、科技新闻实时动态，并对美国市场收盘进行全面报道。

We're all over global business, finance, tech news, all as it is happening in real time, and we've got complete coverage of The US market close.

可以说，基本上，只要是影响金融市场、影响公司、影响当前趋势和主流观点的事情，我们都会

Gotta say, basically, if it impacts financial markets, if it impacts companies, if it's impacting trends and narratives that are out there, we are on

关注。

it.

我们在做这些时也乐在其中。

We also have a lot of fun doing it.

《彭博商业周刊》还通过与专家嘉宾的对话，为您带来头条新闻背后的深度分析。

Bloomberg Businessweek also brings you the analysis behind the headlines through conversations with our expert guests.

我们每个工作日都会进行实时报道，然后在每日播客中为您带来最优质的分析。

And we are doing this all live each weekday, and then we bring you the best analysis in our daily podcast.

您可以在YouTube、苹果播客、Spotify或任何您收听播客的平台搜索《彭博商业周刊》。

Search for Bloomberg Businessweek on YouTube, Apple, Spotify, or anywhere else you listen.

下班回家路上收听，补上您在商业日错过的精彩对话。

Check it out on your way home from work to catch up on the conversations that you missed during the business day.

还有在

And on the

周末收听，为您完整回顾一周商业要闻。

weekend, check it out for a complete wrap up of your business week.

这里是《彭博商业周刊》每日播客。

That's the Bloomberg Businessweek daily podcast.

我是卡罗尔·马瑟。

I'm Carol Masser.

我是蒂姆·斯塔尼维克。

And I'm Tim Stanivek.

立即订阅，您可在任何播客平台收听我们的节目。

Subscribe today wherever you get your podcasts.

您正在收听的是《彭博市场监测》播客。

You're listening to the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast.

每周工作日下午东部时间7点至10点与我们直播互动。

Catch us live weekday afternoons from seven to 10AM eastern.

通过彭博商业应用在Apple CarPlay和Android Auto上收听，或在YouTube观看我们的直播。

Listen on Apple CarPlay and Android Auto with the Bloomberg Business App, or watch us live on YouTube.

我们来谈谈并购吧，因为过去几周我们一直在讨论华纳兄弟的大交易，但感觉今年对并购来说是相当不错的一年。

Let's talk about M and A because we've been talking about this big Warner Brothers trade, for the last several weeks, but it's been a pretty darn good year for M and A, it feels like.

而且我认为银行也在谈论2026年的前景。

And I think banks are talking up 2026 as as well.

所以让我们连线一位以此为业的专家。

So let's check-in with somebody who does this stuff for a living.

萨米尔·辛格，他是花旗集团北美并购业务的联席主管。

Sameer Singh, he's co head of MNA North America for Citi.

萨米尔，请先概述一下2025年并购市场的表现，然后谈谈你们对2026年的展望。

Sameer, help just frame out how 2025 has been for MNA, and then kinda how you guys are thinking about 2026.

好的。

Sure.

很乐意效劳。

Happy to do it.

谢谢保罗的邀请，期待这次对话。

Thanks, Paul, for having us and looking forward to the conversation.

听着，今年确实很有意思，对吧？

Look, it's been an interesting year, right?

这就像是为整个局面定下了基调。

It's been just set the stage.

2025年将成为并购交易量第二大的年份，仅次于2021年——那年包含了许多特殊交易量。

2025, this year is going be the second largest year in M and A volumes after '21, which had a lot of spec volumes in it.

顺便提醒一下，有几个月从并购角度来看我们确实处于低迷期，就是关税政策出台那段时间。

Let's also keep in mind, by the way, there were a couple of months where we were in the doldrums from an M and A standpoint, around when tariffs came out.

所以如果你仔细想想，所有这些势头其实都是在过去八个月里爆发的。

So all of this momentum has really happened if you think about it in the last eight months.

我回顾一下，自2020年以来，我们完成了大约六笔超10亿美元的大型交易，过去四年间。

I think back and I say to myself, since 2020, we had like six mega deals, billion plus, right over the last four years.

而今年仅在过去两个季度，我们就完成了四笔。

This year, in the last two quarters, we've had four.

这种势头不会消退。

This momentum is not going away.

最近简直忙得不可开交，这是为什么呢？

It's been incredibly busy and why is that?

我们这边正好汇聚了几项完美因素，对吧？

We have a kind of confluence of some perfect factors over here, right?

利率正在下降，而增长势头依然强劲。

You've got rates coming off, growth remains strong.

从人工智能及数据中心基础设施角度来看，正有大量投资涌入。

There is a significant amount of investments that's coming in from an AI and thus data center infrastructure perspective.

这点我绝不否认。

I don't discount that.

这是当前的重要驱动力。

That's a big driver this time.

再加上战略投资者看待交易的方式——

And then I combine that with how strategics are looking at deals.

这是近五年来首次在如何获得监管审批方面有了更清晰的路径。

There is greater clarity on how to get regulatory approval for the first time in half a decade this time.

我认为这种势头将持续增强，因为人们能够思考这些问题，作为交易撮合者，我们能够审视形势并判断某项交易是否能够通过审查。

And I think you're going to continue to see this momentum build because people are able to think about this and as deal makers, we're able to look at the landscape and say, we can get an answer as to whether something is going to pass muster.

政府现在更愿意考虑补救措施作为解决方案，这在过去对买家来说是不可行的，从而能够找到应对这些复杂环境的正确方法。

The administration is much more open to looking at remedies as a solution, which was not something that was available to buyers, and thus able to find the right way to navigate these complex environments.

好的，也就是说现在有一个更友好的监管环境可供运作。

All right, so a more friendly regulatory environment in which to work.

所以我们知道，目前媒体行业正在经历大量整合。

So we know we're seeing a lot of consolidation in media.

我们知道正在见证人工智能领域的整合。

We know we're seeing consolidation in AI.

除了这些预期领域外，在新的一年里你还看到哪些领域的整合？

Where else outside of those sort of expected areas, where else are you seeing consolidation in the New Year?

这是个很好的问题。

It's a great question.

你知道，我们来谈谈人工智能吧。

You know, let's talk about AI.

当我们谈论AI时，每个人都在讨论大语言模型。

When we talk about AI, everyone talks about LLMs.

但让我们实际谈谈AI之外的其他领域。

But let's actually talk about what else happens beyond AI.

对吧？

Right?

AI正在引发大量资金涌入数据中心基础设施。

AI is causing massive amounts of spending that's flowing into data center infrastructure.

这影响着工业领域。

That impacts industrials.

你可以把它比喻为淘金热中的铁锹和镐头。

You think about, let's call it picks and shovels.

但想想未来五年即将涌入的资金规模，从工业角度来看这将产生重大影响。

But you think about the volume that's coming in of spend over the next five years, that is having a big impact from an industrial perspective.

因此你会看到大量资金流向那边。

So you're going to see a lot of flow on over there.

因此你会看到房地产领域也涌现大量资金流动。

You're seeing a lot of flow on in real estate as a function of that.

此外我们还要考虑到，后疫情时代人类行为模式被迫发生了改变。

And then let's also consider the fact that coming out of COVID, we've had a change in human behavior that was forced on people.

正因如此，企业不得不进行适应性调整。

And as a function of that, companies have had to adapt.

这些影响包括修复供应链的需求，以及重新考量关税政策的必要性。

You take those impacts, the need to fix supply chains, you take the need to think about tariffs.

我认为当这两个因素叠加时，消费者领域也将出现重大变革。

I think the other place when you combine those two factors, you're going to see a lot of changes in the consumer landscape as well.

这种趋势不会消失。

That's not going away.

所以在我看来，这种变革正在各行各业发生。

So in my mind, I see it happening across the board.

我们还得考虑GLP法案的影响，对吧？

Let's also consider the GLPs, right?

想想医疗保健领域及其正在产生的一些影响。

You think about healthcare and some of the impact that that's having.

我看到这种现象正在各个行业发生。

I see this happening across sectors.

所以人工智能对工业、房地产和其他一些领域产生了连锁反应。

So AI has a flow on on industrials, real estate, a few other places.

我看到了消费者领域的许多变化，也看到了医疗保健行业的强劲势头。

I see a lot of change in consumers, and I see a lot of momentum in the health care franchise as well.

萨米尔，跟我们谈谈你们的私募股权客户或赞助商吧。

Samir, talk to us about the the private equity clients or sponsors out there for you guys.

根据我在华尔街三十年的职业生涯，募资很容易，投资也很容易。

You know, based on my thirty year career on the street, it's easy to raise money, and it's really easy to invest money.

但是伙计，要变现这些投资真的很难。

But, man, it's really hard to monetize those investments.

这种情况在过去四五年里变得尤为明显。

And that's been pronounced really over the last four or five years.