308 · 杰克·施瓦格与伊曼纽尔·巴拉里 - 市场奇才，量化之道：揭秘标准、技艺与毅力

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《与交易员对话》制作的播客节目及其他内容仅用于信息或教育目的，不构成交易或投资建议。

Podcast episodes and other content produced by Chat With Traders are for informational or educational purposes only and do not constitute trading or investment recommendations or advice.

这没有单一的成功公式。有人用小资金创造巨额财富——以书中两个极端案例为例，其中两位交易者确实从不足5万美元的账户增长至近五亿美元。这就是我说的财富惊人增长的戏剧性但真实的例证。另一种则是虽未赚取巨额利润，但风险回报率惊人的交易者。书中另外两位交易者中，有一位从未有过亏损月份，表现极其稳定。

There's not a single formula for this. Either someone who's taking a small amount of money and turned it into a huge amount of money, and to take two extreme examples in the current book, two of the traders have literally gone from sub $50,000 accounts to close to a half billion. That's sort of a dramatic but real example of what I mean by a spectacular increase in wealth, right? Then the other one is traders who just haven't made like a ton of money really but they've had an unbelievable return to risk. So two other traders in this book, one of them has not had a losing month but it's like steady.

他并没有发大财。他基本上靠交易谋生。他就像是

He doesn't make a fortune. He basically earns a living as a trader. He's like

所以当杰克和我相遇时，我们坚信全球范围内存在一些非凡的交易者。但在过程中我们发现，找到有才华的交易者是一回事，但如果他们所在的国家缺乏监管体系或法律架构，他们就无法真正建立管理外部资金所需的机构基础设施。这几乎成了他们从专注的优秀交易者蜕变为世界级史蒂夫·科恩（掌管基金资本）的另一道门槛。加速器的理念就是：如何找到这类天才交易者——比如市场奇才级别的——然后围绕他们提供基础设施、导师资源（可能是监管合规、市场营销、资金渠道或资本对接），让他们能专注于交易本身，而我们则提供所需资源，使他们有望与全球顶级对冲基金抗衡。

So when Jack and I met, we had this firm belief that there were some amazing traders out there globally. And along the path, we realized that it was one thing to find a talented trader, but if they were in a country where maybe they didn't have a regulatory jurisdiction or they didn't have the legal structure set up, they couldn't really properly have the institutional infrastructure to manage outside capital. And so it became almost another barrier to entry for them to transition from a really good trader who's really focused to then aspiring to become the Stephen Cohen of the world, that they actually launch a fund in managing capital. The idea of the accelerator was how do we find that talented trader, let's say the market wizard quality trader, and then come around them and provide them with the infrastructure, the mentorship, it could be regulatory, it could be marketing, the distribution, the access to capital, so that they can be focused at what they're doing, and then we can provide them with with all the the needed resources for them to potentially manage money and then compete against some of the largest hedge funds in the world.

或许正在收听节目的某位有志者渴望管理资金，但又足够谨慎理智，明白不该在没有投资人网络的情况下投入大量资本搭建基金架构。对吧？这几乎像是逐步切入机会的方式。

Perhaps somebody who's listening to the show who who's aspiring, you know, they they they wanna manage money, but also they've been they're they're risk averse and intelligent enough to know that they're not gonna spend a lot of capital setting up a structure of a fund to potentially raise money from outside investors that they have no network from. Right? And so this is almost like legging into this opportunity.

市场、投机与风险。这里是《交易者对话》播客。

Markets, speculation, and risk. This is the Chat with Traders podcast.

啊没错。这是《交易者对话》第308期特别节目，我是联合主持人泰莎·道，与伊恩·考克斯共同主持。今天嘉宾是杰克·施瓦格——传奇《市场奇才》系列作者，也是Fund Cedar联合创始人（与合伙人埃马纽埃尔·巴勒里共同创立）。我们深入探讨了入选《市场奇才》的标准：虽然没有固定公式，但杰克绝对会寻找卓越表现者。

Oh, yes. We're on episode 308 of the Chat with Traders podcast, and this is a special one. I'm Tessa Dow, cohost with Ian Cox, and we're joined by Jack Schwager, best known as the author of the legendary Market Wizard series and also cofounder of Fund Cedar together with his partner and fellow cofounder Emmanuel Ballery. We dig into what it actually takes to be considered for a Market Wizard's book. There isn't one formula, but Jack definitely looks for standout performance.

那些取得常人认为不可能成绩的交易者——但并非不可能。多年来，我们采访过曾登上《市场奇才》后又现身播客的交易者。当杰克描述他现在寻找的特质时，我不禁想到：未来某卷中很可能出现我们其他未被收录过的嘉宾。这想法令人兴奋，我们拭目以待。作为成长中的交易者，对话中让我印象深刻的是生存与爆仓之间的刀锋平衡——为何往往取决于仓位管理和提前规划退出策略。

Traders who've achieved the kind of results most would think impossible, but it's not impossible. Over the years, we've had traders who were featured in Market Wizards that eventually appeared on our podcast. But as Jack described the qualities he looks for now, I couldn't help but think, I wouldn't be surprised if some of our other guests that we've had on the show who've never been in the books before might show up in a future volume. That's an exciting thought and we shall wait and see. One of the parts of our conversation that stood out to me as a developing trader was the razor's edge between surviving and blowing up, and why it so often comes down to position sizing and planning your exit in advance.

随后话题转向杰克在《市场奇才》中反复观察到的、交易者对流程与惯例的极致专注——这种专注使他们能随市场变化持续调整。我们还讨论了趋势跟踪等永恒策略在当今市场是否依然有效，以及杰克指出的关于基本面与风险的颠覆性悖论。最后聚焦Fund Cedar平台：由埃马纽埃尔和杰克创立，旨在发掘全球隐匿交易天才。埃马纽埃尔详解其运作机制——如何验证业绩、评估容量与流程，以及通过现属RQSI（拥有扶持新兴经理人悠久历史的对冲基金孵化机构）的Fund Cedar Rise加速器，为顶尖交易者提供基础设施和种子资金实现规模扩张。听众朋友们，接下来这部分会让你热血沸腾。

From there, the conversation branches into the kind of obsession with process and routines that Jack has consistently seen in the traders featured in his Market Wizards books, an obsession that allows them to keep adapting as markets change. We also talk about whether timeless strategies like trend following can still hold up in today's markets and a surprising paradox Jack points out about fundamentals and risk that might change the way you think. Then we shift to Fund Cedar, a platform co founded by Emmanuel and Jack, built to discover and evaluate undiscovered trading talent from around the world. Emmanuel explains how it works, how they verify performance, evaluate capacity and process, and how through the Fund Cedar Rise Accelerator, now part of RQSI, a hedge fund and seeding firm with a long track record of backing emerging managers, they help top performers get the infrastructure and seed capital to scale. And here's the part that should excite many of you listening.

他们正在积极寻找下一代有才华的交易员，那些有潜力从管理个人账户转向作为专业基金经理管理外部资金的人才。最终能脱颖而出的人寥寥无几，但每位伟大的经理人都有起点。如果你一直在磨练技艺并建立了真实的业绩记录，为何不能是你呢？所以如果你对自己的技艺是认真的，你会喜欢这一期的内容。更多信息和链接请查看节目备注。

They're actively searching for the next generation of talented traders, people with the potential to move from trading their own accounts to managing outside capital as professional fund managers. Very few will ultimately make the cut, but every great manager starts somewhere. And if you've been honing your craft and building a real track record, why not you? So if you're serious about your craft, you'll love this episode. More information and links are in the show notes.

那么闲话少说，女士们先生们，我们非常荣幸地向大家介绍杰克·施瓦格和伊曼纽尔·巴勒里。

So without further ado, ladies and gentlemen, we are so pleased to present Jack Schwager and Emmanuel Ballery.

好的，各位，我想欢迎两位知名人士——《金融怪杰》系列书籍的作者杰克·施瓦格，以及与杰克共同创立Funcedar的伊曼纽尔·巴勒里。我想先从杰克开始。杰克，欢迎回到《交易员杰克》节目。距离你上次做客这里大概有七八年了吧。

Well, everyone, I'd like to welcome both famous Jack Schwager, author of the Market Wizards books, and Emmanuel Ballery, who is the founder of Funcedar with Jack. I'd like to start off with Jack. Jack, welcome back to Jack with Traders. I think it's been seven or eight years since you were last on here.

是啊，确实有几年了。具体多久我不太确定。

Yeah. It's been a number of years. I'm not sure how many. Yeah.

你写了很多很棒的书，都是《金融怪杰》系列的一部分。现在写到第几本了？已经有六本了吗？

And you're up you've written a lot of great books, part of the Market Wizard series of books. Are you up to how many has it been? Six already?

我正在写第六本。

I'm working on number six.

哦，你正在写第六本。好的，太棒了。我早在1994年就读过你的第一本《金融怪杰》，那本书激励我进入了交易行业。你有第六本的发布日期了吗？

Oh, you're working on number six. Okay. Great. I read your first Market Wizards book back in 1994, and that inspired me to get into trading. Do you have a release date on

你的书吗？发布日期我想大概在六月份左右。

for your book? The release date is I think it's gonna be around June.

是啊，很期待

Yeah. Looking forward to

很快了。七月份。具体日期我不记得了，但大概是初夏。

it soon. July. I don't remember the exact date, but it's early summer.

好的。所有名额都满了吗？你找到所有预告片了吗？

Okay. Do you have all the slots taken up? You found all the trailers?

很多

A lot

实际上确认会出现在书中的人员名单还没有正式确定，所以得等到书稿最终定稿后，我才能详细说明。

of the actual confirmed list of who's gonna be in the book haven't officially confirmed that yet, know, so just waiting until the book is actually finalized the manuscript before I kind of describe you know go into more detail on it.

能和我们分享一下入选你书中的标准是什么吗？

And could you share with us kind of what are the criteria to get entrance into your books?

是的，显然首要标准是业绩表现，然后问题在于什么样的业绩，这并没有统一公式。基本上我会关注两种情况：要么是有人用少量资金赚取了巨额利润——举个极端例子，本书中两位交易员从不足5万美元账户起步，如今接近5亿。对，五亿。

Yeah okay so obviously the first criteria is performance, you know, and then the question is what kind of performance and there's not a single formula for this. So basically I look for one or two things either someone who's taking a small amount of money and turned it into a huge amount of money. There's a and to take two extreme examples in the current book, two of the traders have literally gone from sub $50,000 accounts to close to a half billion. Half billion, yeah.

天啊。

Oh god.

没错，或者说五亿（四舍五入到百万单位）。这就是我说的财富惊人增长的现实案例。另一种则是那些虽未赚取天文数字（比如几百万），但风险回报率惊人的交易员。本书中另两位交易员，其中一位近11年没有亏损月份——这数据可能不完整因为他后来单干了，但之前是自营交易员。我相信他说的那些年也确实没亏钱，所以可能连续15年盈利。

Right, right, or 500,000,000 if we went around it to millions so that's it you can't get that's sort of a dramatic but real example of what I mean by the spectacular increase in wealth, right? Then the other one is traders who just haven't made like a ton of money really, I mean to make x millions, whatever it is, but they have an unbelievable return to risk. So two other traders in this book, one of them has not had a losing month in about eleven years now that be shown because he went off on his own, but then he was a prop trader. And I don't doubt him when he says he didn't lose money in those, you know, few years as well. So he's probably going fifteen years without losing money.

要知道，是完全没有亏损月份。虽然赚得不算暴利，但稳定以交易为生——大概每年赚个三四百万美元，月月盈利。另一位交易员有更长记录（超过15年），期间只有5个月亏损且幅度很小。第一种情况你甚至无法计算风险回报率，因为分母（亏损）为零。

Well, you know, without a single losing money. So, but it's like steady, he doesn't make a fortune, he basically earns a living as a trader. So he's like making about, I don't know, $304,100,000 a year, sort of makes money every month. And, but that type of consistency, another trader who's had a long track record was able to track back further, forget how many years now, it was over fifteen but in his case he's had five losing ones all pretty small. In the first case you can't even calculate some return risk ratios because you've got you get infinite infinity because you have no divisor that's negative, right?

第二种情况虽有几个亏损月，但风险回报率数字依然高得惊人。业绩标准就这两类。其他标准还包括持续时间——毕竟谁都能有好运五年。我通常要求至少10年记录，多数案例是15-20年，像本书中有些人因曾做自营交易，可追溯更久。

But you get in the second trade it was a few losing months, you get this these extraordinary return risk numbers that are just mind boggling. So it's either of those two as far as the performance side. And then there are other criteria in terms of that, it can be for a short period, because, you know, anybody can have a good five years, right? Or whatever. I typically try to get a minimum of 10, many cases is 15 to 20 or even the official track record as is the case in this book as well sometimes can go all the way back because they were prop traders before, but they've traded for a long time.

所以我选择的是长期验证过的交易员。极少会破例十年规则，除非有特别 compelling 的故事，但基本都接近十年。95%以上案例都远超这个年限。

So I'm getting people who've demonstrated for lengths of time. Very rarely will I make an exception to the ten year rule occasionally, for some compelling story, but it's always at least close to ten and ninety ninety five plus percent of the time it's, you know, it's well more than that.

哇。这些回报率太惊人了。您之前的访谈提到过，您在寻找百年后依然有效的市场真理，并指出人性弱点是我们最大的障碍。

Wow. Yeah. Those are outrageous returns. In some of your previous interviews, you've mentioned that you were looking for the truths of the markets that will still be true a hundred years from now. And you brought up the challenges of human nature as one of the key sticking points and how human nature works against us.

你提到了一张有趣的图片，猴子向华尔街版面投掷飞镖的表现常常胜过人类。我的问题是，如果根据每个人的心理状态适当调整头寸规模，这些结果能否显著改善？

And you you referenced a a funny image of monkeys throwing darts at a Wall Street page often do better than humans. And my question is, could these results be dramatically improved by just position sizing appropriately for each person's psychology?

嗯，是的。头寸规模是个重要因素，也是许多交易者的败因。这涉及到止损问题，也就是风险管理，对吧？既要考虑止损，也要考虑头寸规模。如果头寸过大，虽然可以止损，但假设你在单笔交易中冒险投入10%的资金——这里我要澄清，我指的不是买入占你资金10%的股票。

Well, yes. I mean, position sizing is an important element and it is a downfall of many traders. Well, there's this amount of cutting losses, you know, terms of risk management, right? Matter of cutting losses, and then there's a matter of position sizing. So if you size too large, you can cut your losses, but if you were to be risking 10% of your capital on any given trade, And here, let me be clear, I don't mean that you buy a stock that takes up 10% of your capital.

那不算真正的风险敞口，除非你持有至归零，明白吗？我指的是你有明确的止损计划或风险点。你可能配置了10%的资产管理规模，但实际只承担1-2%的风险，这没问题。问题是当人们头寸过大时，一次糟糕交易就可能造成极其严重的损害。

That is not, you know, that's only risk attempts on your capital if you're holding it to zero, right? But I'm talking about, you have a plan, you have either stopping or plan or some defined risk point. So you may, you may allocate, you may be 10% of your AUM, but you're only risking one or 2%. So that's fine. So the mistake if people put on a position too large, and then it can become a very damaging, you know, one bad trade can become very, very damaging.

事实上，这本新书里不少顶尖交易者，尽管技艺超群，也曾经历过令人毛骨悚然的时刻，其中头寸规模就是问题所在。

In fact, a number of the traders in this new book, as great as they are, as spectacular as they are, had some hair raising episodes where position sizing was part of the problem.

人们在进入交易行业前都有本职工作，能认真对待工作，明白需要努力学习、遵守规则。为什么你认为许多新手交易者不能像对待工作那样对待交易？他们可是投入了大量本金，理应避免人类天性中自古以来的大多数陷阱。

People before they get into trading and they have their jobs, they can treat their jobs seriously and know that they have to study and work hard and and follow rules. So why do you think many new traders can't treat trading like a job? I mean, they've got their skin in they got a lot of skin in the game, their own money, and hopefully avoid most of the pitfalls of human nature that has plagued us from the beginning days.

原因在于，我认为可能大多数人——或许是绝大多数——开始交易时并未意识到真正成功需要什么。这本新书里就有很多鲜明例证：这些成功者不是把交易当爱好，甚至不是当作职业，而是视为一种压倒性的执念，几乎投入了全部时间精力。我提到那个亏损月份的交易员，他凌晨3:30起床查看市场，睡回笼觉后5:30继续，直到晚上8点才结束。

The reason is because I think maybe the probably the majority, I don't know, a larger majority of people get into trading, don't appreciate that to really succeed. And you can see this again in this new book, I keep on thinking there's so many, when I'm answering these questions, there's so many glaring examples to prove this, where these people didn't just trading wasn't just a hobby, it wasn't just the, it wasn't even the job. It was, you know, an overwhelming obsession. And just kind of capitalizing all their time and energy. The fellow I mentioned that had a losing month, he literally gets up at 03:30 to check the markets goes back to sleep, then comes back at 05:30 and then doesn't wind up until 8PM.

这就是他们展现的那种专注力，以及某些交易者进行的深度分析和研究。有人谈到研读数千份SEC文件，几乎成了活体百科全书，能即时分类新发布的文件，辨别重点与非重点案例。他们投入的工作量有时令人震惊。另一位自营交易员在事业初期，不仅全天交易后进行复盘分析，还会录下关键交易片段，在非交易时段反复回放模拟操作。

So I mean, that's the kind of devotion that you get and types of intense analysis and study that some of these traders do. One fellow just talking about going through thousands of cases, SEC filings, it just becoming almost a walking encyclopedia of and categorizing it of SEC filing comes out, know, figuring out what's important, what happened in each case, what's not important. It's just the amount of work that they devote to this is sometimes staggering. And one of the other traders, basically not only would be trading, who is a prop trader trading, he no longer now that he's made a fair amount of money, he's kind of eased off a bit. In his early part of his career, when he was a prop trader, he would not only spend the entire day trading, he'd do the analysis afterwards, but he would literally record key parts of his trading and then replay them and retrade those things out of market hours.

这就是那种专注力。现在想想那些进入交易行业的人，他们想成为交易员、想赚钱，却没有那种专注力。我们是例外，但大多数人没有。我认为人们往往低估了真正出类拔萃者的付出。

So that's the kind of devotion. Now, you think about people who get into trading because they want they want to be a trader, they want to make money. They don't have that type of devotion. We're exceptions, but for the most part they don't. And I think that people don't appreciate who really excel.

我的意思是，你还需要具备两种天赋。这是另一个要素。但即便有天赋，也必须付出艰苦努力。嗯。

I mean, you have to have a talent for two. That's that's another element. But even if you have the talent, you really have to do the hard work. Mhmm.

你所说的艰苦努力是指投入时间，还是学习所有相关知识？因为你提到那个研究美国证券交易委员会文件的人...

And the hard work as in just investing time or learning everything there is to learn about it? Because you mentioned the guy that looked at SEC filings and

刻苦努力的人首先要找到适合自己的策略——你认为自己能胜任且具有优势的领域。然后就是竭尽全力打磨这个策略，但这还不够。不像学习木匠手艺，掌握所有技法后就能达到巅峰状态，成为完美工匠。交易比这更残酷——即便你技艺纯熟运作良好...

Well, the hard work guy, first of all, you have to find what your strategy is and then and that's what you wanna do and what you feel you have an edge at. But then it's just doing everything you can to hone that strategy and it goes beyond that. It's not like learning a craft, you know, you're a carpenter and you learn every technique and you get really better and better and you like get to a certain point and does that that's it and now you know how to do everything, any type of cabinetry and do perfectly and you devoted your life to being a perfect carpenter. In trading, it's worse than that. I mean, because you get to a point where your skill and everything's going fine.

但市场永远在变化。这本书里每个交易员都经历过转型期，有些人最终采用的方法与最初截然不同。所以不仅要投入大量时间精力钻研当下技术，更要敏锐察觉当前方法失效的信号，随时准备调整策略。

But markets keep on changing. And in almost every case, I can't think of a single interview in this book, where the trader didn't go through adoption phases of change. And sometimes where they end up could be quite different from where they started. So it's not only a matter of devoting all this time and energy to whatever the technique is at the moment. But it's also a matter of being open to the need and the signals that that particular methodology is losing its efficacy and you now need to adapt into some other strategy.

我提到的那位只有五个月亏损记录的顶级交易员（顺便说他的风险回报率极高），现在经营着一家自创的私募培训机构。他估计培训过200多名交易员，但始终强调保持学徒心态的重要性——即便拥有25年经验，仍像刚入行的新人那样不断探索有效方法。因为他深知当下有效的方法，很可能几年后就失效了。

One of trader I mentioned who had only five losing months, very high return risk, by the way is himself, he runs a prop training firm he co founded and he's he estimates he's he's trained over 200 people in this day, trainers in this day. But he emphasizes that the importance of always maintaining the mentality of a trainee. In other words, even though he's got twenty five years of training experience, even though he's trained 200 traders, he still keeps himself at the mentality where he's like a trainee who's just kept trying to get in trying to break in and trying to find stuff that works. And so he tries to keep himself in that framework because he knows that whatever's working today, in many cases won't be working a year from now or five years from now, whatever. So he tries to always be looking for new techniques or how his current methods have to change.

明白了。所以他就像在预判市场行为的下一次转变？比如他在强劲牛市学会交易后，当市场进入横盘震荡期时，他是否就在预判不同市场环境并提前学习适应？

I see. So it's almost like he's trying to anticipate the next change in market behavior. Like if he was learning how to trade when the market was in a strong trending bull market and then the market goes choppy sideways for a while, is that kind of it? He's trying to anticipate different market conditions and learn ahead of time?

这更多是关于在他案例中尝试寻找市场中不同的模式、怪癖或低效之处。他在采访中举例说明，比如曾有一段时间，预测哪些股票将被纳入指数（比如标普500或其他指数），哪些将被剔除——做多即将纳入的股票，做空即将剔除的股票。这是个绝佳的优势策略，因为一旦某只股票被纳入指数，所有机构都需要重新平衡其投资组合。所以你知道，新股票进入标普500后必然迎来大量买单，这是显而易见的事。这个策略有效了好几年，但后来变得众所周知，优势消失，就不再奏效了。

It's more a matter of trying to in his case, to find different patterns or quirks or inefficiencies in the market. And he gives examples in the interview where, for example, at one time the idea of figuring out which stocks were going into the index, let's call it the S and P or any other index, and which were coming out trying to anticipate that would be longer ones that are going in and shorter ones that are going to come out. That was a great strategy for an edge because once it goes in, all these institutions have to rebalance their portfolio. So you know, you know, a new stock comes into the S and P, it's going to get a lot of buy means, it's an obvious thing. So for a few years that worked, but then it became too well known and awkward away and it's no longer works.

所以这些策略有时会因可解释的原因失效，有时则原因成谜。他提到自己曾交易VIX恐慌指数，有个依赖交易时段的特定模式，曾是个极其可靠的策略，是他的重要盈利手段。但后来不知为何——他无法解释——就在俄罗斯入侵乌克兰后，这个模式突然失效且再未恢复。

So, and these things disappear for sometimes explainable reasons, and sometimes for reasons which are a mystery. He mentions he had this, that he used to trade the VIX, he had a particular pattern he traded in the VIX, and it depended on the time of day. And it was like a really reliable pattern. It was important strategy of his. And then for some reason that he couldn't explain it, but when Russia invaded Ukraine, right after that, the patent stopped working and never worked again.

你看，这类事情中，天知道入侵事件与VIX指数之间能有什么关联，或许只是巧合。但关键在于，曾经有效的策略常常会突然失效，有时可能重现，有时则永远消失。

You know, so some of these things, God knows what the relationship would be between the invasion and the VIX but yeah maybe it's just coincidental but the point is things that work very often will stop working And sometimes they may come back, but sometimes never.

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也许最好的例子就是趋势跟踪对吧？我在书里首次写了市场测验。这就是结尾部分。我在88年采访这些人时，他们讲述的职业生涯可追溯到60年代或至少70年代。

Yeah, well, maybe the best example is trend following, right? I did the first market quizzes into the book. And this is the end. So I'm interviewing people, this is an I'm interviewing them in '88. But we're talking about careers which go back in their cases to the 60s or at least 70s.

要知道在60、70年代根本没有电脑，更别提超级计算机或量化机构了。个人电脑直到80年代才真正出现。像埃德·索科塔这样书中的首批实践者，仅用简单趋势跟踪方法——他原本是工程师背景。

Right? And so back in the 60s and 70s, there's no computer, forget about supercomputers, forget about quant shops. I mean, you didn't even have a PC really, until into the 80s, which is the beginning of itself. So, people like Ed Sokoda, was in that first book, who was just doing simple trend following stuff. And he was, I think his background was an engineer.

他为使用华尔街主机才入职（我完全理解那种场景，大学最后一年我也用IBM360主机编程，那机器占满小半个房间，打孔卡操作，运算能力怕是现在iPhone零头都不到）。但当时只要能接触电脑做些基础趋势跟踪就能大获成功，丹尼斯就是经典案例——他靠这个积累了巨额财富。

He got a job on Wall Street so he could use the mainframes back, the mainframes and I knew exactly what was talking about. Because when I was in my senior year in college, I remember doing programming on the same mainframe as an IBM three sixty, took up a good part of a small room. And it was punch cards and you know, had the power, I don't know what fraction of iPhone power it had, whatever. Anyway, but in those days, that's all so you just need to access the computer and did some basic trend following things and he did phenomenally well on that. And also like somebody like Dennis is a classy example, who used trend following to build a fortune.

这些方法在60-80年代效果惊人。但随着电脑普及和交易软件涌现，趋势跟踪变得过于容易流行。不过其核心理念确有道理：多数市场趋势一旦形成，延续动能往往很强。

And, you know, that all worked great in the 60s, 70s, particularly 70s, even into the 80s. But at beginning in this, then as computers became more popular and platforms, and software became available, it sort of everybody and their brother could do trend following, right? So it became too accessible, too easy, too popular. And the concept of trend following does have real rationale behind it. And that is because for many, many markets, once a trend begins, there are very good reasons for it to continue.

比如美联储政策转向后很少短期反复，货币调控亦然（广场协议后趋势延续数年）。商品市场同样——过剩需长时间消化才会抑制产能。以铜为例：过剩状态持续一年才会迫使矿场减产关闭。

So, you know, if the Fed changes its policy, rarely does the Fed change from tightening to loosening, and then three months later, go back to tightening. So typically, they begin on a course of tightening them loosely, it often will just continue for a long time. In terms of currency valuation, central banks trying to control their currency values, they decide or make an agreement to go in this given direction, like the Plaza Accord is like a handful, you know, once that happens, it tends to go for years, it just so there are real reasons why and you take commodities, you get surpluses, and then it takes a long time for that surplus to kind of work its way to work its way down. And then eventually you get to the point where discourages expansion and production or whatever. So I mean, true for something like a copper takes, takes a year, you know, if copper goes into surplus and you discourage new mining and you discourage, and some old mines close and whatever.

开发新矿需要时间，如果最终出现短缺，那将是一个漫长的过程。因此趋势存在有其原因，但市场的表现——我不知道是谁说的，但市场某种程度上会愚弄大多数人大多数时候。所以即使趋势最终仍会出现，它也会以剧烈震荡的方式淘汰部分趋势追随者，这些波动看似趋势彻底反转，而不仅仅是小幅回调让人误判。不，而是那些真正的大幅下跌之后，市场可能又立刻反弹。

It takes a while, a very long time to open new mines if there's a shortage eventually. So there's reasons why trends exist, but what the market has done, I mean, I don't know who said it, but the market sort of fools the greatest paraphrasing here, you know, will act in a way to fool the greatest number of people the most time. So even though it can't get even though the trend will still occur, it will occur in such a way that it will cut the pieces some trend followers by just these whipsaw actions, which look like complete changes of trend. And not just minor pullbacks that, oh, I got faked out by this. No, but these really big declines that that and then the market may go right back.

顺便说，你在股市中更常见这种现象。由于财报等因素，股市会出现极端波动。但所有市场都会如此，这使得趋势跟踪获利变得更困难，因为这种震荡行为愈发明显。我虽未做过具体分析，也不认识做过的人——这会是个有趣的研究——但我敢打赌，如果有人测量市场对趋势中超过特定百分比幅度回调的敏感度，我确信相比六七十年代，这种现象发生的频率和强度都在增加。

You see it more in stocks, by the way. You see in stocks you get this extreme volatility like that because of earnings and things of that nature. But you get it in all markets so it becomes more difficult to profit from trend following because of that whipsaw action becoming more pronounced. I think I haven't ever done the analysis and I don't know anybody who ever has, it would be an interesting analysis, but I would bet that if someone measured how prone the markets were to let's say reactions in a trend of beyond a certain percentage size different thresholds I will bet that that has increased and become more frequent over time, relative to what it was say in the sixties, seventies and eighties.

你提到了一些支撑强劲趋势的基本面因素案例，因为趋势形成确实有其合理依据。在你之前的某次访谈中，你提到基本面分析与风险管理存在矛盾。为什么会这样？

You highlighted some of the examples of say, fundamental factors that are behind a strong trend because there's some good reasons why a trend Yep. Is in place. In one of your previous interviews, you mentioned that fundamentals worked in contradiction to risk management. Why would that be?

这就是疯狂之处。技术分析有个优势：对于大多数技术分析方法而言，如果你错了，它会显示你入场的技术依据不成立，并提示你退出——前提是你遵循自己的交易体系。而基本面分析的困境在于，假设我分析了玉米或任意X市场...

That's well, here's the crazy thing. You know, you technical one advantage of technical analysis is that for most approaches in technical analysis, if you're wrong, will indicate that your technical reason for being in the market is wrong. And it will tell you to get out if you follow your own approach. The trouble fundamentals is, let's say I do an analysis of corn or whatever. Let's go market X.

比如我认为X市场合理价应是7美元，而现价5美元。基于供需分析，我认为价格必须上涨才能平衡市场——当前价格下供给不足以满足需求，需要通过涨价抑制需求。这很合理。但假设市场因故跌至4.5美元，且基本面未改变。

So let's say I say market X should be at $7 and it's currently at $5 okay so okay that's I got my reason this market I've done the analysis that based on supply and demand I think it should it needs to go up because it's not enough supply to clear demand, you know, at this price. So we need to bring demand down, price has to go up. Okay, so that's, that's fine. But then the market goes down to $4.50, let's say, for whatever reason. And let's say it doesn't change the fundamentals.

这时我会想：既然5美元已是买入良机，4.5美元更应加仓。这正是方法论的一致性体现——我并非违背分析逻辑，我的模型仍指向7美元目标价，市场只是从5美元跌到4.5美元。

So I'm sitting there. Well, if it was a good buy at 5, it's now a better buy at $4.50. And that's the key here is that's consistent with the methodology. Okay, it's not like I'm ignoring my methods. I've got my analysis and my analysis tells me seven, nothing has changed, the market is going from five to four fifty.

因此合乎逻辑的做法不仅是持仓，甚至可能增持。这就是基本面分析的本质：当行情逆向发展而分析结论未变时，理论上应该越跌越买。这也正是我说基本面分析困难的原因。另外，基本面分析通常极不擅长把握时机。

So the only logical thing is not only to hold, but perhaps even to add. So that's the intrinsic nature fundamentals is such that the more it goes against you, if nothing has changed in your analysis, more you should add to the position. So that's what I meant. And that's makes fundamental analysis difficult. The other thing is that fundamental analysis is very poorly attuned, generally speaking, to timing.

因此基本面之间并不总是一致。有时你会遇到变化，比如新信息出现，情况改变，价格也随之变动。股票财报就是个好例子——意外财报发布后价格会调整，有时方向很明显，但很多时候广泛的基本面变化与实际价格走势之间没有明确的时间关联。有时基本面先行，有时滞后，情况各异。讽刺的是，唯一能用基本面判断时机的时候——这只是我个人观点——反而是逆向操作时。

So there's not a consistency between fundamental. Sometimes you get, get a change and okay, so you get a change that some new information comes out and things change and the price changes. Mean, earnings reports in stocks are good examples so surprise earnings report okay and the price adjusts so sometimes it's obvious you know which direction but a lot of times broad fundamentals there's no real timing to the shifting fundamentals and the actual price action. Sometimes the fundamentals proceed, sometimes I lag, it can be all over the place. The only time ironically, that fundamentals are good for timing, and this is just my opinion, is in a kind of contrarian way.

比如市场迎来利好消息，如期上涨后却回落，假设当日收跌，这可能预示着趋势转变。当基本面表现与预期不符时，这种反常反而可能成为有用的时机信号——尽管这恰恰与基本面指示的方向相反。

So the market gets some bullish news, and it goes up as it starts to go up as expected, and then declines and let's say closes lower on the day, that can be indicative of a change, you know, if the market has changed direction. So in that case, when the fundamentals don't do what you expect them to do, that might be useful timing, but that's ironically opposite to what the fundamentals said.

你过去多次强调最重要的原则之一就是入场前先明确退出时机。多数交易者习惯将止损设为1R、2R或3R（风险倍数的盈利目标），这样难道不会过早离场而错失趋势延续的机会吗？毕竟'趋势是你朋友''让盈利奔跑'这些格言曾帮助许多交易者用少数大赚交易覆盖多次小亏。

You've said multiple times in the past that one of the most important points is to know when you'll get out before you get in. Since most traders are used to setting their their exits at, you know, one r, two r, two times what they risk, or three times what they risk, doesn't one run the risk of getting out too early and not capturing, you know, the trend is your friend and let your winners run and those other aphorisms that has helped some traders make great profits off of a few trades that overcame many of their smaller losses.

当然，这只是普遍原则。任何用于风险保护的止损点都可能让你在市场转向前被扫损——这是实战中不可避免的。关键是通过止损确保亏损不超过预定承受范围，这种权衡在我看来是必要的。顺便说，'入场前先定退出'这个理念——

Yeah, I mean, of course, this is just a general point. Obviously, if you're using any type of exit point for risk protection, you always and it's not theoretical. Traders who use do that will often get experience of being stopped out right before the market turns multiple times and you know that trading career it's unavoidable but the key is it also avoids any loss larger than what you're prepared, that what you've decided to allow in the beginning. And that's a trade off and it's a trade off which is necessary in my opinion. And by the way, that deadline, know you get it, you'll get out before you get in.

必须说明这是《金融怪杰》中布鲁斯·柯凡纳的经典语录。我推崇这句话是因为它不仅提供高效风险管理，更强调'事前决策'的客观性。与持仓后因浮亏而被迫决策不同，你在入场前冷静制定策略：比如50元买入时设定45元止损，因为若判断正确就不该跌到45元。

That's give credit where credit is due, that is a quote from Bruce Governor in the first Market Wizard's book. And it's the reason I like that quote so much and why I've used it so often is not only does it provide very effective risk management, the key there is that because it's the word before, because you're making decision before you get in, you're making it at a point of objectivity. So it's different than if you stay with the position without any stop and the market starts going against you. And now you have to make decisions, but your decisions can always be clouded by the fact that you're, in the position that kills your subjectivity. So the idea of making that decision before you went to their position means you're making it from a rational cool point based on what your approach is, and you say, Okay, I'm buying the market at 50.

这是基于交易前完全理性分析设定的止损位。若触发止损，说明先前'不该跌至此'的判断错误——即便后续价格反弹。

If I'm right, it shouldn't go to 45. And that's where you put your stop. So have a rational reason before you got into the trade when you were fully objective for picking that stop. And if it gets hit, well, that was your previous analysis that if it got, it shouldn't go there. And if it did get to, were wrong.

即使最终价格重新回升。

Even if it eventually rebalances goes higher.

那么让我们稍微转换一下话题，谈谈Fund Cedar（基金雪松），和我们分享一下你是如何参与其中的，以及最初的灵感是什么。同时也想听听Emmanuel的看法。

So let's transition a little bit about and to the topic of fund Cedar and share with us how you got involved with that and kind of what was the inspiration and also like to hear from Emmanuel as well.

当然。我先说说我的看法，因为Emmanuel才是应该主要谈论这个话题的人。但这个想法是Emmanuel当时向我提出的。那时我正在为他所在的一家经纪公司做咨询，我们在一场会议上共进晚餐。他说，Jack，我想给你介绍一个想法。于是他向我推介了Funcedar的概念。

Sure. So I'll give him my comment because Emmanuel is the one who should talk mostly on this topic, but the idea was presented to me by Emmanuel at the time. I was doing some consulting for a firm that he was with, a brokerage firm, and we were at a conference together and having dinner, I believe. And he said, Jack, I want to pitch this idea to you. And he pitched the idea of Funcedar.

我说，嗯，你知道，我这个人总是准备好否定各种想法。Emmanuel可以证明这一点。但我说，这个想法确实不错。所以我唯一的参与就是通过提出原始创意的Emmanuel。

And I said, yeah, it's a, you know, I'm I'm I'm one who's always prepared to shoot down ideas. Emmanuel will tell you that. But I said, that's that's that's a good idea. And so that's why so my only involvement was was via Emmanuel who had the original idea.

哦，太好了。那么Emanuele，我想听听你的背景，以及是什么让你参与创建了Funcedar。

Oh, great. So Emanuele, I'd like to hear from you kind of a little bit about your background and then what made you get involved with Funcedar or create it for that matter.

是的。Jack太谦虚了，他其实是真正的联合创始人。没有他，就不会有Fund Seater。我们曾经共同管理过一个基金的投资组合，我们都相信可以为新兴基金经理提供资金支持。

Yeah. Well, Jack's humble. He's he was a true cofounder. There would be no fund seater with without him. We we were actually co portfolio managers for a fund, and we were aligned in terms of believing that we could give capital to emerging managers.

我们走遍世界各地，比如葡萄牙等地，寻找这些新兴基金经理。Fund Cedar的初衷就是希望具备发现未被发掘的交易员和基金经理的能力，并帮助他们成长为机构投资者或提供资金支持。我们的理念是，在Jack当年用大型机编程的时代已经快速演变的今天，人们虽然能获取信息技术，但大型对冲基金经理仍控制着大部分资产。FundSeater旨在 democratize（民主化）全球各地有才华的交易员获取资源和数据分析的途径。

And we had traveled the world, you know, Portugal, all over, finding some of these emerging managers. And so really, the reason for fund Cedar was where we wanted to have Edge to be able to discover undiscovered traders, undiscovered managers, and then somehow help them along the way in terms of becoming institutional or give them capital. So our thesis was in a world, you know, where, like Jack was talking about when he was, you know, coding, you know, in a mainframe computer, it had rapidly evolved where people had access now to information technology. But on the other side, the same big hedge fund managers were controlling a bulk of the assets. And so FundSeater was looking to democratize how we can give access to talented traders from all over the globe, wherever they might be, and then provide them with analytics.

Jack的贡献在于他参与制定了我们可以量化评估的指标体系。如果我们发现优秀的人才，就会提供资金支持。这就是FundSeater背后的核心理念。

And Jack was involved in this in terms of, you know, metrics that we could, you know, quantitatively evaluate. And then if we found the good ones, we'd give them capital. And so that was that was the the the idea behind funds here.

嗯。那么它是如何运作的？你们会如何找到这些交易员？交易员要怎么向你们展示，比如说‘嘿，我是个好交易员’？

Mhmm. So how does it work? How would it how would you find these traders? How would traders show you that, hey there. Hey.

我是个优秀的交易员。

I'm a good trader.

首先，给他们一个尝试的机会。对吧？我记得上次查看时，我们有两个基金的注册用户来自超过120个国家。所以无论你在哪里，不必身处纽约或伦敦，都可以注册Cedar基金。理念是通过连接你的经纪账户来实现。

Well, first of all, giving them a shot and an opportunity. Right? So we, I think the last time I looked, had over, we had sign ups for two funds here from over 120 countries. So no matter where you're at, you don't have to be in New York City, you don't have to be part in London, you can sign up to fund Cedar. And the idea would be you would be connecting your brokerage account.

我们已与盈透证券建立连接，并正在接入其他平台，或者你也可以上传交易记录文件（我们会标记为未验证）。这样我们和交易员本人都能看到你在同行中的表现，或者与其他人的对比，判断你是否足够优秀。这就像棒球农场系统的选拔过程，向所有人开放，让顶尖的1%有机会管理资金。

So we have connection with Interactive Brokers and adding others, or you can even upload your files, which we classify as unverified. And and then we can see how you can and you as well as a trader can see how you stack up against your peers, or you could stack up against others, and if you're really good enough or, or you're not good enough. And so that was the process, right, providing almost if you think about the baseball analogy of a baseball farm system, opening it up to everybody and let the top 1% have an opportunity to to potentially manage capital.

你们是否统计过他们交易哪些类型的资产？是系统性交易还是主观判断？有没有关于交易次数、回撤幅度这类数据？

Have you been able to accumulate any stats on, k, what type of assets they trade? Are they systematic versus discretionary, or any information regarding number of trades, drawdowns, that kind of thing?

有的。Fundseeder提供的分析报告涵盖了你提到的所有维度：回撤、盈亏比（Jack很看重这个指标）、波动率、与其他市场的相关性等。这些数据能初步判断交易员是否具备规模优势或独特优势，对平台注册交易员很有价值。

Yeah. So the analytics and, you know, that Fundseeder provides look they look exactly what you mentioned in terms of drawdowns, you know, gain of pain ratio, which Jack is fond of, volatility, correlation to other markets. And so that gives us that initial sort of viewpoint of potentially, does the trader have scale or edge? And then so that becomes something that is valuable to to traders who sign up to the platform.

嗯。

Mhmm.

那么你们是否有数据表明，比如有多少比例的交易员能够匹配或超越标普500指数，或者有多少人最终亏损甚至爆仓？

And do you have any data on, like, what percentage of traders can match or beat the S and P 500 or how many end up losing money or blowing up their accounts?

嗯，我想当杰克和我最初启动这个项目时——当时只是个构想——我们始终认为前1%的交易员甚至具备管理资金的潜力。从筛选角度来看这个判断相当准确，对吧？早前播客里杰克也提到过，那些顶尖市场奇才们勤奋自律，几乎全神贯注于自己的交易策略。这在我们观察到的数据中得到了印证：那些风险调整后数据排名前1%的优秀交易者确实如此。我们尚未统计爆仓或淘汰者的比例，因为我们的目标本就是寻找那些在注册Cedar基金前就拥有卓越指标的前1%交易员。

Well, I think Jack when Jack and I started this, and it was initially just an idea, we always thought that the top 1% would even be good enough to potentially manage money. And so from a sourcing perspective, that's pretty accurate, right? You know, earlier in this podcast, Jack was talking about how, I mean, the the top market wizards, you know, are hardworking, you know, extremely disciplined, are like almost, you know, focused, so focused on what they're doing. And that shows in terms of the data that we're seeing of the talented traders that have, know, top 1% in terms of risk adjusted numbers. We haven't looked at the ones that have say blown up or, you how many of them churn through it, because our goal was really find those top 1% that even before they sign up to fund Cedar, had excellent metrics.

这也正是我们当初讨论这个节目的原因。我猜收听你们播客的多数交易员都受过高等教育，他们始终在向同行学习。你提到的三位交易员最终入选了杰克的新书，这正是我们今年希望招募的交易员画像。

And that's really the reason we even kind of were talking as when we talked about the show, a lot of I would imagine a lot of the traders that are listening to your podcasts are are highly educated. They're they're they're always looking to learn from other traders. And you mentioned three of them that ended up being are gonna be in Jack's book. So that's really the profile of of the traders we are looking to have sign up on for this year.

嗯，明白了。那么你们如何从定量和定性角度评估交易员以确定最终入选名单呢？

Mhmm. Oh, okay. So how do you evaluate traders from a quantitative and qualitative approach to get included in your Sure. Yeah. In the final

定量方面，我们寻找具有高风险调整收益的操盘手，通过回报风险比等指标筛选。同时考察策略容量——如果某交易员只能操作200万美元资金，或仅擅长小盘股/做空策略，这种有限容量就不适合管理他人资金，他们自身可能也不愿承接额外规模。数据本身就能说明问题。

Quantitatively, you know, it's we're looking for managers and traders that have high risk adjusted numbers, whether you know, so that filters it, you know, return to risk levels. We're looking to see if their trading, their strategy has capacity. So someone could, if the trader could only, you know, either trade on a $2,000,000 or do trading small cap stocks or some type of short selling, that's probably not a fit for them to be able to transition to manage other people's capital because the capacity is not there. And they probably wouldn't want to take on the additional capacity as well. So quantitatively, the data speaks for itself.

定性层面，通过多年与这些交易员的深入交流，我们试图理解他们的优势所在：能否清晰阐述策略？与同类策略者相比的差异化何在？我们会评估其个人特质、表达逻辑，以及从个人交易转向资管业务的意愿——这种渴望规模化发展的商业思维，正是从个人交易者转型的关键。

But then qualitatively, when we have conversations, and Jack and I have had many over the years with these traders, we try to understand where their edge is at, right? And how can they articulate their strategy? What sets them apart from others that would say that they're doing exactly the same thing? So we look at the person, we look at how they articulate what they're doing. And then from a business perspective, and this is the point of transition from someone who's just trading their own money, do they have almost that the business desire to scale and grow their business?

这几乎标志着他们交易生涯进入了一个全新的发展阶段。

And that becomes a almost a different evolution in their trading history, if you will.

我了解到你们有一个加速器项目叫FunSeater，还是Emerging Lizards？

I understand that you have an accelerator called FunSeater, or Emerging Lizards?

是的。回顾Funcedar的创立历程，当我和杰克相遇时，我们坚信全球范围内存在一些杰出的交易员。但在过程中我们发现，找到有才华的交易员是一回事，但如果他们所在的国家缺乏监管框架或法律架构，他们就无法建立完善的机构基础设施来管理外部资金。这实际上成为了他们从专注交易的优秀操盘手，向立志成为史蒂夫·科恩那样管理基金的世界级投资人转型的另一道门槛。

Yeah. So if you think about the genesis of really almost what we what we have done with Funcedar. So when Jack and I met, we had this firm belief that there were some amazing traders out there globally. And along the path, we realized that it was one thing to find a talented trader, but if they were in a country where maybe they didn't have a regulatory jurisdiction or they didn't have the legal structure set up, They couldn't really properly have the institutional infrastructure to manage outside capital. And so it became almost another barrier to entry for them to transition from a really good trader who's really focused to then aspiring to become the Stephen Cohen of the world that they actually launch a fund in managing capital.

因此加速器的核心理念就是：如何找到市场奇才级别的交易员，然后围绕他们提供基础设施支持，包括监管合规指导、市场营销、资金渠道对接等全方位资源，让他们能专注于交易本身。我们希望通过这种方式，帮助这些交易员最终能与全球顶级对冲基金同台竞技。类比硅谷的Y Combinator等加速器，像Airbnb这类公司最初也是由优秀创始人带领，在风投机构的资源网络加持下快速成长为巨头。我们正是要为那些渴望管理资金、但又因风险意识强而不愿盲目投入资本搭建基金架构的潜力交易员，提供同样的成长加速服务。

And so the idea of the accelerator and it was, you know, how do we find the talented trader, let's say the market wizard quality trader, and then come around them and provide them with the infrastructure, the mentorship, it could be regulatory, it could be marketing, the distribution, the access to capital, so that they can be focused at what they're doing, and then we can have them provide them with all the needed resources for them to potentially manage money and then compete against some of the largest hedge funds in the world. And so an example I would give is, know, if you're familiar with the Silicon Valley, where they had all these accelerators like Y Combinator, you had Airbnb or other companies where there were strong founders, they had some type of track record of success, but the network and the resources provided by some of these venture firms helped them accelerate where they became the massive companies that they are. So we're trying to do the exact same thing for perhaps somebody who's listening to the show who is aspiring, you know, they want to manage money, but also they've been, they're really, risk averse and intelligent enough to know that they're not going to spend a lot of capital setting up a structure of a fund to potentially raise money from outside investors that they have no network for.

对吧？这就像是逐步切入机会的过程。

Right? And so this is almost like legging into this opportunity.

确认一下，这些交易员最初是用自有资金在个人账户操作，并且交易记录是可验证的？

So just to confirm, so they're initially, they're trading with their own capital and their own accounts, and their trades are verified?

是的。Funcedar提供两种验证方式：如果连接券商账户，交易数据将自动验证；若券商不兼容，他们可以上传XLS文件，我们通过分析工具评估其表现。之后我们还会通过对账单等渠道核实数据真实性。

Yeah. For fund Cedar, we have two options. If they connect their brokerage accounts, their trades are verified, if their broker is not compatible, they can upload an XLS file to use our analytics to see how they compare. And then we can verify afterwards your statements or other means to make sure that their data real and accurate.

与如今遍地开花的线上平台相比，你们提供的服务有哪些差异化优势？

How would you say what are the differences of what you offer for the many online platforms that seem to be everywhere these days?

目前市面上有跟单交易平台，我不确定您指的是否那些更偏向零售投资者的平台。散户可以跟随成功交易者的操作。我们创立Fund Cedar时，始终秉持着寻找少数顶尖交易者，并帮助他们机构化以抗衡大型对冲基金的愿景。因此我们更专注于服务机构投资者，而非让散户复制盈利交易者的策略——虽然我们会为这些交易者提供配套的基础设施支持。

So there's copy trading platforms, and I'm not sure if you're referring to those where it's much more retail focused. You could piggyback on a retail trader and follow their trades. We, when we started Fund Cedar, we always felt that, you know, we're trying to find a handful of top traders, and then help them become institutional so that they can compete against some of the bigger hedge funds out there. So we were more focused on the institutional investors versus retail investors that could kind of copy or piggyback on a trader that's making money, and then providing them with with the infrastructure around it.

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嗯。请简单介绍一下RQSI？

Mhmm. Tell us a little bit about RQSI. What is that?

正如我之前提到的，当我和Jack创立Fund Cedar时，我们怀揣着发掘交易天才的梦想。但后来发现从人才挖掘到建立规模化业务存在巨大鸿沟。RQSI收购了Fund Cedar，我们现在是其旗下机构。创始人Neil Ramsey曾早期注资过20多位基金经理，这些经理后续管理规模超200亿美元——听众可能听说过其中某些名字，比如早期与Crable合作的Fort QIM。

Yeah, so as I mentioned, you know, when Jack and I founded Fund Cedar, we had this idea of finding talent, but we found out that it was much more difficult to transition from even just finding the talent to creating a scalable business. So RQSI acquired Fund Cedar, and Fund Cedar is part of RQSI. The founder, Neil Ramsey, was an early seeder in many managers. So he seeded, I think, just over 20 managers that went on to manage over $20,000,000,000 in PKUM. Some of your listeners might know some, a Fort QIM was early with Crable.

后来Neil转型开发统计套利模型，管理规模曾超20亿美元。我认识他五六年间，他一直在构建系统性全球宏观策略，但收益停滞。当我们重新联系时，他表示要回归初心：坚信市场上存在交易天才，通过提供种子资金、导师资源和基础设施支持，能帮助他们实现规模化成长。这对基金孵化事业至关重要——现在不仅有资金配置，更有Neil这样成功培育出多位百亿级基金经理的引路人。

And then he transitioned and built a stat ARB model that went up to about over $2,000,000,000 And I've known him for five or six years, and he's been working on a systematic global macro program, and the returns just stopped working. And, you know, when he when we reconnected, he said, Look, I'm going to go back to my roots. I really believe that there are talented traders out there, and that we can help by giving First Capital, providing seed capital to them. And not only that, but mentorship and whatever infrastructure that they might need so that they have an opportunity to grow and scale. So this was a big piece of the puzzle in terms of the fund seater journey, because now you have capital that's being allocated, and you have a person like Neil Ramsey and RQSI that has actually a history of seeding some managers that have gone on to manage billions of dollars.

所以你们面向的主要是机构投资者，对吗？

So your main focus for investors are institutional investors, correct?

正确。

Correct.

好的。那么既然他们能接触到大量ETF、基金经理、共同基金等等，对他们来说投资于这群相对较新、远不如华尔街知名交易员的卖点是什么？

Okay. And then kind of so then what's the main since they have access to lots of, you know, ETFs and fund managers, mutual funds, and so forth, what's the selling point for them to invest with this group of kinda new trader relatively new traders that are not nearly as well known as the people on Wall Street?

想想那些顶级基金公司，它们都是多策略平台。比如千禧年、Point72、城堡投资这些机构，只配置资金给资深基金经理。你总听到人才争夺战，某位经理从一家公司跳槽到另一家。我们想做的就是建立类似棒球农场体系的机制，为新兴基金经理提供第一桶金，让他们以合理节奏发展壮大。对投资者而言，如果你相信新锐经理人，相信那些不依附大机构却拥有优势的交易员，这就是我们的价值所在。

If you think about some of the largest funds out there, they're multipod shops. Right? The Millenniums of the world, the the point 72s, the Citadels, and these firms are only allocating to the big established PMs, or you're hearing about the talent wars, and one manager moves from one firm to another. And so what we're trying to do is we're trying to create this baseball farm system, if you will, of the smaller managers and giving them that first capital and providing them with the ability to to to scale and grow at a pace that makes sense. So from an investor perspective, if you're an investor and you and you believe in emerging managers, you believe in traders that have edge and they're not they don't have to be working for some of the largest firms, that's something that, you know, makes makes makes this compelling.

嗯。

Mhmm.

那么对所有交易员来说，能否列举加入你们平台的几项具体好处？如何帮助普通交易员提升交易水平或改进工作方式？

So for all the traders out there, can you illustrate just a few benefits of signing up for your platform that they can get and perhaps maybe help improve their trading or their the way they do things? How can an average trader benefit?

当然。首先是免费分析工具——这是多数券商不提供的。注册FundSeater不仅能获得业绩对标分析（包括我们之前讨论的各类指标），还能看到自己在同行中的排名。据我所知，大多数交易员都在单打独斗，根本不清楚自身水平，顶多每月看看对冲基金指数表现。

Sure. There's so there's two pieces. The first is if you're just a trader and you're looking to have some analytics, they're free that, currently don't have at your brokerage firm, you sign up to fund Cedar, not only you're going to get these analytics, they could see how your performance compares and some of these metrics we talked about earlier, but you could actually see how you can compare against other people in your peer group. So extremely valuable. Most of the most traders that I know are trading in a silo, they, you know, they have no idea how they stack up against their peers, maybe monthly, they see how the hedge fund index perform.

但总体上缺乏横向对比，而这正是我们提供的。其次是针对顶尖1%交易员的Rise加速器计划——希望听众中有人符合条件。这是个更精选的项目，我们会协助入选者转型为机构级资金管理人。

But by and large, it's they don't have that comparison, and FundSeater provides that. The second piece, and this is for the top 1%, and I'm hopeful that there's some of your listeners, or even some that have been on this show, that if they want to make that next step to to manage money, that they apply to funds you to rise, which is the accelerator. And this is this is a much more curated, exclusive program. And and and the and the traders that we do accept, we will work with them to to help them scale and become institutional money managers.

太好了。注册需要费用吗？

Fantastic. Is there a cost to sign up?

免费。

No cost.

好的，太棒了。那么总结一下，我们的听众如何联系到你们两位呢？

Okay, great. So to wrap up, how can our listeners reach both of you?

杰克？是的，

Jack? Yeah,

我偶尔会在X平台上发布一些Protiviti的内容，直接用我的名字杰克·施瓦格就能找到。我有个个人网站，但现在已经不怎么更新了，上面有些旧内容，网址是jackschwager.com。另外，通过Fund Cedar应该也能联系到我。

I do have on X sometimes some Protiviti on that so just my name Jack Schwager I have my website but I I really don't update it anymore. There's some old stuff on there, which is jackschwager.com. And I guess I could be contacted through Fund Cedar as well.

太棒了。伊曼纽尔？

Fantastic. Emmanuel?

对，直接访问fundcedar.com就行。我们的加速器项目还会开放几周，如果你想申请，或者认识合适的人选，我们非常欢迎推荐——那些怀揣成为下一个对冲基金经理梦想的未来市场奇才们。

Yeah, just go to fundcedar.com. And again, the accelerator, we're opening it up for another few weeks or so. So if you want to apply, or if you know someone, we would appreciate any any referrals or recommendations of the next market wizards, if you will, that also have aspirations of of of being the next hedge fund manager.

太棒了。非常感谢你参加《与交易员对话》节目。

Fantastic. Thank you very much for coming on Chat with Traders.

谢谢你，伊恩。非常感谢。

Thank you, Ian. Thanks.

好的。我希望你们喜欢伊恩与杰克和伊曼纽尔的对话，我也很荣幸在采访后与他们两位简短交流。虽然现实情况是，能转型管理外部资金的交易员凤毛麟角，但请想想——每个基金经理最初都和我们大多数人一样，从交易个人账户开始，逐步建立业绩记录。我向他们表达了全球交易员对其贡献的感激之情，感谢他们带来这个绝佳机遇与可能性，为我们树立了奋斗目标。

Alright. I hope you enjoyed Ian's conversation with Jack and Emmanuel, and I also had the great pleasure of chatting with both of them for a few minutes after the interview. While I think that the reality is that very few traders ever make the leap to managing outside capital, think about this. Every fund manager who did started out like many of us at some point, trading their own account and steadily building their track record. I told them how appreciative I am on behalf of traders everywhere in the world for their contributions, bringing to us this amazing opportunity and possibility, and giving us something to aim for.

更棒的是，即使未能入选加速器计划，你仍可免费注册fundcedar.com和fundseeder.com获取交易分析数据，了解自己与全球交易员的水平对比。单是这一点，就能成为提升交易能力的利器。如果你一直在打磨技艺、积累优秀业绩记录，或许你比想象中更接近目标——说实话，我知道听众中有些人已准备好迈出这一步了，我鼓励你们勇敢尝试。我们都支持你。

The great part too is that even if you don't make it into the accelerator, you can still sign up at fundcedar.com, fundseeder.com for free to get analytics on your trading and see how you can stack up against other traders around the world. And that alone can be a powerful tool to help you improve in your trading journey. And if you have been honing your craft and building a strong track record, or maybe you're closer than you think, honestly, I know that some of you listening are ready right now for this next step, and I say go for it. We're rooting for you.

本期《与交易员对话》到此结束，但请放心，更多满载真实市场洞见、毫无水分的新节目即将上线。订阅iTunes播客即可获取更新，若能留下评分和评论我们将不胜感激。下次《与交易员对话》再见。

You've reached the end of this episode of chat with traders, but rest assured, there are more episodes loaded with real market insight and zero hype on the way soon. So to stay updated with each great new release, subscribe to the podcast in iTunes, and we'd love it if you'd leave a rating and review. We'll catch you next time on chat with traders.