312 | 首次购房者 | 大口袋

各位，我们再次回到‘购房是否是一项好投资’的话题。这次我们将从首次购房者的视角来探讨。我保证本期与Bigger Pockets的斯科特和明迪的对话不仅信息量十足，还可能充满糟糕的双关语。欢迎来到终极众包个人理财节目《选择财务自由》。

Everyone, we are coming back to the conversation of is purchasing a home a good investment? And we're gonna look at it through the lens of the first time home buyer. And I promise you, this episode with Scott and Mindy from Bigger Pockets is gonna be both informative and likely full of really bad puns. Welcome to the ultimate crowd source personal finance show. This is Choose FI.

您正在收听《选择财务自由电台》——财务自由的蓝图在此呈现。若您想解锁财务自由与提前退休的秘诀，来对地方了。请持续关注，加入志同道合的群体，摆脱仓鼠轮式生活，掌控人生追求财务自由。《选择财务自由》——您线上财务自由的家园。

You're listening to Choose FI Radio. The blueprint for financial independence lives here. If you're looking to unlock the secrets to financial independence and early retirement, you're in the right place. Stay tuned and join a community of like minded people who are getting off the hamster wheel and taking control of their lives in the pursuit of financial independence. Choose FI, your home for financial independence online.

好了各位。今天我们要讨论至少一个版本的美国梦——那就是坐落在美好社区、带有白色尖桩篱笆的中产阶级漂亮房子。但对许多人来说，2008、2009年左右，这房子非但没成为美国梦，反而成了财务噩梦。有些人甚至深陷负资产长达十年之久。在我们这个逆向思维的财务自由社区里，人们开始理性审视数据并质疑：购房是否真的适合所有人？

Alright, everyone. Today, we're gonna be talking about at least one version of the American dream, which is that beautiful middle class home in a wonderful neighborhood and a white picket fence. And for many people, circa 2008, 2009, that home became instead of an American dream, it really became a financial nightmare. One that people were underwater for, you know, maybe over ten years. And in this kind of contrarian financial independence community that we have, people rightly, very rightly so, started looking at the numbers and saying, I don't know if homeownership is really the right decision for everyone.

尽管我从小就知道自己终将买房，但我仍想反驳这种观念。事实上，当我看到2008、2009年购房的人，在某些案例中（当然并非全部），这可能是他们成年后最糟糕的财务决定——至今仍在为此付出代价。所以这始终是个充满争议的话题。

Even though I always knew from a child that at some point I was gonna purchase a home, I wanna push back on that. In fact, when I look at people that were purchasing in 2008, 2009, it was probably the in some cases, obviously, not every. It was maybe the worst financial mistake of their adult life. It's one they're still recovering from. So it's an ongoing debate.

这个话题极具吸引力，我们将通过BiggerPockets的新书视角来探讨，特别是今天连线嘉宾斯科特和明迪合著的《首次购房者：避免新手错误的完整指南》。在座许多人都已购房，可能觉得‘我现在应该懂怎么买房了’。但我要说：这本书信息量惊人，若我再购房，定会按他们的框架重塑整个流程。他们考虑周全，讲解生动，偶尔还有些老套幽默——这正是他们的特色，我超爱这点。

It's one that's absolutely fascinating, and we're gonna be looking at that through the lens of a brand new book from BiggerPockets, and specifically Scott and Mindy who are on the call with us today called First Time Homebuyer, The Complete Playbook for Avoiding Rookie Mistakes. Now many of you have already purchased a home, and I could see you for a second saying, I probably know how to buy a home at this point. And I would just push back on that and say, I got so much information from this book that if I were ever going to purchase another home, I would rework my entire process with the framework that they laid out in mind. They were meticulous. They thought of everything, and they did it in a very engaging and sometimes corny way, which is their whole shtick, and I love it.

闲话少说，我们直接开始。今天有幸邀请到联合主持人布拉德。老兄，最近如何？

Anyways, we'll get right into that. But to help me with this, have my cohost, Brad, here with me today. How are doing, buddy?

嘿乔纳森，我很好。你说得对，这本书确实精彩。我为此书写了推荐语——‘能让人更清晰认知世界的书实属难得’

Hey, Jonathan. I am doing quite well, and and, yeah, you really hit it on the head. The book is fantastic. It honestly is. I actually wrote a a little blurb for it, and it said it's a rare treat when a book helps you see the world more clearly.

首次购房者正是如此。不同于那些关于拥有住房的陈词滥调，比如美国梦或这是你最大的投资，斯科特和明迪用一堂现实世界的大师课，告诉你购房时真正需要考虑什么。我认为他们讲得非常到位。他们谈到了当你购买最大、最昂贵的房子时可能发生的情况，正如他们所说，买家往往不自知地将自己置于长达数十年的财务困境与忧虑中。而一个明智的购房决策不仅能提供住所，还能带来灵活性、财务稳定性，并有机会见证房产随时间增值。

And first time homebuyer does just that. Instead of platitudes surrounding homeownership, like it's the American dream or it's your biggest investment, Scott and Mindy give a real world masterclass on what to truly consider when purchasing your home. And I just think they nailed it. I think they talk about, you know, what can happen when you buy the largest, most expensive home possible that, as they say, little do they know they're setting themselves up for decades long slog of financial struggle and worry. Whereas a smart home buying decision will not only give you a place to live, but also offer flexibility, financial stability, and the chance to recognize an increase in that home's value over time.

这不正是我们所有人都想要的吗？一个明智的购房决策。那么，斯科特、明迪，欢迎来到节目。

And isn't that what we all want? A smart home buying decision. So with that, Scott and Mindy, welcome to the show.

谢谢邀请。能和你们两位交谈我太兴奋了。我们好久不见了。

Thanks for having me. I'm so excited to talk to you both. It's been way too long since I saw you.

是啊，谢谢邀请我们。

Yeah. Thanks for having us.

我们很高兴请到你们来，伙计们。这会很有趣。我们何不从每个人心中最根本的问题开始呢？斯科特、明迪，你们按自己选择的顺序回答：买房是一项好投资吗？

We are excited to have you here, guys. It's gonna be a lot of fun. Why don't we just kick this off with the ultimate question that's in everybody's minds? Scott, Mindy, answer this in whatever order you choose. Is purchasing a home a good investment?

也许是吧。这是个陷阱问题。

Maybe. Trick question.

提问。继续下一个话题。

Question. Move along.

你会如何重新表述那个问题？比如，那是个合适的问题吗？

How would you rework that question? Like, was that the right question?

购房或住房是一项支出。除非你能以某种方式获得免费住房，否则你必须为居住支付费用——在这种情况下，继续免费居住比购房或租房更划算。但住房始终是项支出。你买得越多，财富积累就越少，支出就越多。对吧？

Buying a home or housing is an expense. You have to pay to live somewhere unless you're getting free housing some sort, in which case you're better off continuing that than buying a home or renting. But housing is an expense. The more you buy, the less wealth you will have, the more you're spending. Right?

无论你购买更大、更豪华、更昂贵的住宅，还是租用更大、更豪华、更昂贵的公寓、康斗或其他类型房屋，这个道理都成立。所以购置得越少，财务状况就越好。因此我认为这是项支出而非投资。如果把整个策略围绕这个观点重构，问题就变成：我能负担多少房子？虽然贷款机构给你的预批额度有限制，但核心在于用最低支出满足生活需求。

That's true whether you buy the bigger, nicer, more expensive home or rent the bigger, nicer, more expensive apartment, condo, or whatever with that. So the less you buy, the better off you are. Therefore, it's an expense, in my opinion, not an investment. And so I think if you reframe your whole strategy around that, that's where it's like, how much house can I afford? Well, there's a limit to what your lender is gonna pre qualify you for, but it's about how little I can spend to meet my life lifestyle needs.

那么满足这些生活需求的最佳财务决策是什么？是租房？还是买房？我认为背后需要权衡细微差别，并进行大量数据测算。

And what's the the best financial decision to get those those lifestyle needs? Is it renting? Is it buying? I think there's a nuanced decision behind that and a lot of math that comes behind that.

或许我们可以在本期节目中简单探讨这个话题。但敏迪，你不觉得很有趣吗？当我们开始考虑购房时，第一个问题总是'我能负担多少'，然后依赖贷款计算器给出答案。

Well, maybe we can touch on that a little bit, in this particular episode. But, Mindy, isn't that interesting that question that we start off when we start thinking about buying a home is how much can I afford? And we and we look to a lending calculator to give us that data.

我是一名房地产经纪人，常年与客户打交道。我发现自己经常克制住不问'你能负担多少'这个问题——因为刚写完一本关于'不要花光每一分钱'的书，转头就对客户说'你应该把全部积蓄用来买房'实在太虚伪了。

I am a real estate agent. I work with clients all the time, and I find myself stopping myself from asking, well, you know, how much can you afford? Because I feel like I just wrote this book talking about don't spend every dime. It is very disingenuous for me to then reach out to my clients and say, hey. You should spend every dime you have on a house.

所以我只询问他们的目标价格区间，建议他们联系贷款机构讨论不仅涉及总支出，还包括月供金额。同时了解他们想要什么类型的房子？是否愿意装修？还是希望直接入住完美住宅？你刚才问'房子是投资吗'？

So I ask them what price range they want to be in. I invite them to reach out to a lender and talk to them about not only how much they're going to be spending, but what their payment is going to be. What kind of home are they looking for? Do they wanna do anything to it, or do they want a perfect house when they move in? You asked, is your home an investment?

我的房子是一项很棒的投资。我需要一个住所，而且我住在这里的同时还在赚钱，因为我买的是非常破旧的房子。我搬进去住，把它们修葺一新，让它们看起来漂亮，然后卖给那些不想买破房子的人。

My home is a great investment. I need a place to live, and I am making money while I'm living here because I buy really dumpy houses. I move into them. I fix them up. I make them look beautiful, and then I sell them to somebody who doesn't want to buy the dumpy house.

他们想要漂亮完美的房子。所以我的房子是一项投资，但我正在努力经营它。我在人为推动增值。

They want the beautiful perfect house. So my home is an investment, but I'm working at it. I am forcing the appreciation.

那么Minnie，在你的案例中，这显然是一种房地产投资者的思维方式。但如果把这个问题抛给普通人呢？他们以市场价买了房子，如Scott所说，住房是项支出，他们收入的很大一部分都花在这套自住的独栋住宅上，并打算住上若干年。比如那个在城区好地段以市场价买房的人，他们该把这视为投资吗？

So, Minnie, in your case, this is very purposeful as basically a real estate investor's mindset. But what about if you took that question, is your home an investment for just the average person who bought a house at market value and, you know, spent a significant portion, as Scott said, housing is an expense, a significant portion of their income towards this single family home that they're living in, right, and intend to live in for x number of years. Like, that person who bought at market value in a, you know, nice part of town, should that person consider this an investment?

不。我其实和Jim Collins讨论过这个问题，他几年前就说过，你的房子不是投资。我当时想，我买的每套房子都赚钱了，你在说什么？但深入交流后才发现，他指的是那种买家，Brad。

No. And I actually had a conversation with Jim Collins about this because he came out several years ago and said, your home isn't an investment. I'm like, I've made money on every house I ever bought. So what are you talking about? But a deep conversation with him revealed that he is talking about that, Brad.

他指的是那些购买好房子、完美房子、已经装修好的房子的人，这类房子没有人为推动增值的空间。房产通常（但不总是）会在持有期间自然增值。如果你1974年买房，1990年出售，售价肯定远高于买入价。这并非你人为推动的增值，而是周边市场发展的结果。

He's talking about that buyer who's buying the nice house, the perfect house, the already fixed up house that doesn't have any room to really force the appreciation. Appreciation will generally, but not always, happen over the course of your home ownership time period. If you buy a house in 1974 and then you go to sell it in 1990, it's gonna sell for a lot more than you bought it. You didn't really necessarily force any appreciation. It was the product of the market around you.

除了当前这个特殊市场（今年同比去年实现了两位数增值），大多数市场年增长率通常在3%到8%之间，具体取决于年份好坏。所以短短几年内，你的房屋价值不会有大幅提升。除非你采取Mindy那种人为推动增值的方式，否则计划买房住几年就卖掉的话，不仅赚不到多少钱，考虑到交易成本等因素，甚至可能亏本。所以普通购房者不该想着'我要买房投资'。

And outside of the exact market that we're in right now, which is seeing double digit appreciation this year over last year's double digit appreciation, markets really tend to appreciate what's got three to 8%, like, depending on a really, really good year, year over year. So you're not seeing a ton of increase in your home's value over the course of, you know, just a couple of years. So if you're if you're planning on buying a house, living there for a couple of years, and then selling it, unless you're gonna go the Mindy approach and really force the appreciation, it's not gonna give you a lot when you sell it. And in fact, you could end up losing money when you sell it due to closing costs and things like that. So I wouldn't say the average regular Joe or Jane buyer should think, I am gonna buy a house.

它不会成为很棒的投资，因为这不是投资，而是居住场所。对大多数把房子当作投资的普通人来说，这往往是他们唯一的投资。他们没有参与401k计划，也没有在免税账户之外进行其他投资。

It's gonna be a great investment because it's not an investment. It's a place to live. So that regular Joe or Jane who is considering their house as an investment, in a lot of cases, in most cases, that's their only investment. They're not investing in their four zero one k. They're not investing outside of a tax advantaged account.

他们没有向罗斯IRA账户供款。通常我知道有些听众会说，这些我都做到了。是的，但那并不典型。我是说，有多少人做不到呢？40%的美国人甚至拿不出1000美元应急维修费之类的开销。

They're not contributing to a Roth IRA. Typically and I know there's people that are listening that say, I did all of that. Well, yes, but that's not typical. I mean, how many people can't what is it? 40% of Americans can't even swing a thousand dollar emergency repair or something like that?

对很多人来说，这是他们唯一的投资。就像我之前说的，如果你在1974年买入，然后在90年代卖出，哇，赚了20万美元。但如果你当时把部分资金投入股市，收益会如何呢？

For a lot of people, this is their only investment. And like I said before, back when you bought in 1974 and then you sold in the nineties, wow. I made $200,000. Yeah. But what would you have made if you had put some money in the stock market?

比如1974年投入几千美元，到1990年套现，收益会远超几十万美元。

Like, a couple of thousand dollars in 1974 cashed out in 1990 would be a lot more than a couple 100,000.

没错。关于房屋投资部分，确实有两点使其相对于其他选择成为不良投资。但这背后涉及很多微妙复杂的因素。如果我讲得太复杂请打断我。买房时根据地区不同，你需要支付约1%到2%的交易手续费。

Yeah. There there's two things around the the investment part for the house exactly that makes it a bad investment relative to some alternatives. But there's a lot of nuance behind this that gets really complicated. Cut me off if I'm getting too complicated with this. But when you buy a home, you gotta pay about 1% to 2% in closing costs depending on your area.

在生活成本较低的地区，交易手续费可能达到3%。以40万美元的房产为例，包括贷款、验房、评估、产权等各类费用，你大概要支付8000美元手续费。出售房产时还需支付约8%的交易费，这包括卖方经纪人和买方经纪人的佣金，通常都由卖家承担。

If you're in a low cost living area, it might be 3% of closing costs. So if it's a $400,000 home, you're probably paying $8,000 in closing costs between the loan, the inspection, appraisal, title, all that kind of good stuff. Then when you go to sell the property, you would have to pay about 8% in closing costs. That includes both the sell side, the listing agent, and the buyer agent. The seller typically pays both of those.

我无法具体说明经纪人佣金比例，因为涉及垄断相关法规。但通常在全国大多数市场，这两方经纪人总共会收取5%到7%的费用。很多人没意识到这点——从购房那一刻起，你就要损失房产总价的10%。这些都是沉没成本。

I can't state the specific commissions for the agents because there's some rule about, you know, that being monopolistic. But generally, you can call it five, six, 7% you're gonna pay between those two agents in most markets around the country. And so with that, like, people don't think about that. So that's 10% of your property's purchase price that's out the door the moment you buy it. All of that is sunk cost into it.

如果你首付10%购买40万美元的房产，就是4万美元。如果转天就出售，这4万就没了。这就是隐藏在背后的关键数学逻辑——虽然你的房产可能有净值，但要想通过出售实现这些净值，你还得支付巨额卖方交易费。所以从完成交易那刻起，你就已经亏损很多，必须依靠房产增值。如果不像Mindy那样通过改造强制增值，就只能等待随时间推移的自然升值。

So you put down 10% on a $400,000 home, that's $40. You're out $40 if you turn around and sell it tomorrow. And so that's the key piece of the math that's hidden behind the scenes with this that makes you might have equity in your property, but to realize that equity by selling the property, you're gonna have to pay a ton of closing costs on the sell side. So with that, the moment you close on your property, you're down a lot, and you have to allow appreciation. If you're not gonna improve the property the way Mindy does in force it, you have to allow appreciation to carry you back over time.

是的，当你支付房贷而非租金时，在其他条件相同的情况下，你正受益于资产增值。你在逐步摊销贷款，这些因素都对你有益。这里有个复杂的数学部分：当我为一处房产支付10%首付，而该房产升值3.5%时，我第一年的回报率是30.5%。这说得通吗？

And, yes, when you pay a mortgage versus rent, all else equal, you are benefiting from appreciation. You are slowly amortizing your loan. Those things are working in your favor, and you're getting a here's the complicated math bit. When I put down 10% on a property and that property appreciates 3.5%, my return is 30.5 the first year. Does that make sense?

因为我使用了九比一的杠杆。我在房产中投入了10%。每年随着我的权益份额增加，如果我用现金全额购买，只能获得3.5%的回报，这收益率很低对吧？所以在你持有房产的整个过程中，你实际上是在沿着收益率曲线下滑。

Because I'm levered nine to one with that. I have 10% in the property. Every year, as my equity stake gets bigger, if I were own the whole place in cash, I get 3.5%, which is a lousy return. Right? So you're you're riding this yield curve down the whole way while you own your property.

如果你能想象这一点——我知道这涉及到高等数学——但实际情况是：前几年你会获得可观回报，但这些都被交易成本抵消了。长期来看，相对于股票市场等替代投资（平均可能获得7%、8%甚至10%的回报），你的回报率实际上会变得很差。三十年后，你可能在房产上投入了一百万美元，最终拥有一套价值百万的房产。这很好。但如果你把这一百万投入其他投资，在同样的三十年间可能会获得更好的收益。

And if if you can envision this, I know I'm gonna getting into advanced calculus with this, But that's what's going on here is the first couple of years, you're getting a great return, but that's all offset by these closing costs. And then over the long period of time, your returns actually begin to stink relative to, like, alternatives like the stock market where you might be able to get seven, eight, 10% on an average basis. So after thirty years, you might put a million dollars into your property and have a million dollar property. That's great. But if you put a million dollars into an alternative investment, you might be way better off over that same thirty year period.

这就是背后隐含的数学原理。我们有个电子表格详细计算了这些，应该可以在biggerpockets.com/home buyer bonus找到。虽然我们希望你通过购买书籍来获取这个福利，但我想即使不买也能查看。去看看吧。

And so that's some that's a little bit of the hint at the math behind this. We have a spreadsheet that that goes into all that. I think it's at, biggerpockets.com/home buyer bonus for that spreadsheet. So we'd like you to buy the book to get the bonus, but I think it's just available even if you don't. So go check it out.

是啊，斯科特，这个关于机会成本的讨论很有意思。对吧？就像在说：如果不买房你会怎么做？

Yeah. Scott, that's interesting talking essentially about opportunity costs. Right? Like, what would you have done otherwise? Right?

如果你把那三十年资金投入股市——你提到的替代投资，比如低成本指数基金——预期平均年化收益8%。与你所说的房屋可能3%的通胀涨幅相比，这是相当大的机会成本。这种视角非常有趣，重要的是让人们理解这点。我知道计算有点复杂，但核心概念很关键。

And if you had invested in the stock market over those thirty years, you know, you're saying an alternative investment, but, you know, just low cost index funds, for instance. And you're expecting, on average, 8% annualized returns. That's a pretty significant opportunity cost over, like you said, that potential 3% kind of inflationary rise in your home. So the it's a very interesting way to look at it, and it's important that people understand that. I know the math does get a little complicated, but just the concept.

而且就像你说的，买房时，本质上你房屋价格的10%（包括交易首尾费用）就像被扔进火炉烧掉了。这是实实在在的支出。这部分损失绝对不能忽视。

And, also, like you said, you're walking in, and, essentially, 10% of your home price on both the front side and the backside is burned in a fireplace. Right? That is street expense. So you're down that. Like, that you cannot lose sight of that.

你已经负债了，那可是辛苦赚来的钱。对吧？现在负债累累。我只是想指出这两点。我快速问一下，你们有没有一个经验法则，比如最短时间期限，如果有人对你说，嘿，斯科特。

You're already in the hole, and that's hard earned money. Right? That is in the hole. So just wanted to point out those two things. My my quick question for you is, do you have a rule of thumb then on, like, the shortest time period that if somebody was saying to you, hey, Scott.

我们正考虑搬到这个新城镇，但可能只会在那里住两三年，或者四五年左右。也有可能住得更久，但我们不确定。我们该考虑买房还是继续租房？有没有什么经验法则可以参考？

We're thinking about moving to this new town, but I think we might only live there for two, three, four years, something like that. It's possible we'll live there longer, but we're not sure. Should we even consider buying, or should we just rent? Like, is there a rule of thumb that people could consider?

这归根结底要看盈亏平衡点在哪里。如果我们假设房价年增长率为3.5%——我喜欢用3.5%这个数字，因为它来自凯斯-席勒指数。实际上新房价格涨幅远高于此，因为新建房屋往往更大更豪华，新建住宅价格通常以每年5%-7%的速度上涨。但关键问题是：如果我买了这套房将来转售，它能值多少钱？

Well, it comes down to what's the breakeven point. Right? So if we assume a three and a half percent appreciation rate, and I love three and a half percent appreciation because that's that's comes from what's called the Case Shiller index. Home prices are inflating at a much faster price than that because new homes tend to be bigger, nicer, better, and those new home construction prices are rise typically at a rate of, like, five, six, 7% per year. But what you're looking at is, if I buy this home and resell it later, what's it going to be worth?

全国平均涨幅确实是3.5%。当然丹佛和底特律情况就不同，所以必须结合本地市场具体分析。不过假设年增长率是3.5%的话——你看我又开始沉迷这些数据计算了。

And national average there is three and a half percent. Obviously, it's different in Denver compared to Detroit, for example, and so you gotta be able to nuance that with your local market. But if we assume a three and a half percent appreciation rate, you can tell I can get nerd out about this math stuff.

所以我才爱请你来节目，兄弟。继续讲你的高见。

That's why I love having you on, brother. Just keep it coming.

没错。假设年增长率3.5%，加上我刚说的交易成本，根据当地购房与租房的成本差异，盈亏平衡点大约在5-7年。如果年增长率达到12%，这个时间会大幅缩短。如果你押注未来几年能保持12%的涨幅，很多人确实在房价第一年涨幅就覆盖全部交易成本时赚了钱。过去一两年乃至今年这种行情简直不可思议。

Yeah. If we assume a three and a percent appreciation rate and the closing cost that I just described, your breakeven point, and depending on the cost to buy versus rent, is probably gonna come in a window of about five to seven years. If the appreciation rate is 12% per year, that breakeven point's gonna come a heck of a lot faster. So if you're if you're banking on 12% appreciation continuing for the next couple of years, then, you know, a lot of people are making money buying when just because the price increases to completely offset all those closing costs in year one. I mean, that's incredible what's going on in the last year or two and what appears to going on this year.

但若按3.5%计算就需要5-7年，这还取决于诸多因素。不过这里有个取巧之处：你不需要实际居住满5-7年，只要持有房产超过这个期限就行。比如搬走后改为出租——我们BiggerPockets的听众都懂——如果买的房子适合将来出租，就会极大提高购房相对于租房的吸引力。所以最终要看退出策略如何影响你的购房决策。

But if you assume three and a half percent, it's gonna be five to seven years, and that's gonna be dependent on a whole host of factors. But there's also a trick question there because you do not have to live in the property for longer than five to seven years to make this work. You can just own the property for more than five to seven years. So for example, if you move out of the property and keep it as a rental, you know, we're we're bigger pockets folks over here, you know, that would significantly increase your the desirability of buying versus renting if you bought bought a place that would make sense as a rental after you moved out, for example. So that's where it comes down to, like, these exit strategies can really make a difference informing your decision about whether to buy versus rent.

我们会花很多时间在这上面，因为我认为这些对话至关重要。说实话，我特别欣赏你和明迪共同编写这本书的方式——这让内容更具分量，毕竟BiggerPockets平台以房地产投资著称。想象你正咨询一位精通房产投资的朋友，他能告诉你如何避免购房亏损。比如你说'我要给自己买套房，能透露些内部诀窍吗？该重点看哪些方面？'

We're gonna spend a lot of time there because I think that conversation's a really important pieces. And it's honestly why I love the fact that you and Mindy were the ones that put this book together, that this was a something that bigger because BiggerPockets is largely known for real estate investing. So imagine you're leaning on your friend. That's a real estate investor who knows all the ins and outs of making sure you don't lose money on housing and say, I'm buying a house for myself. Like, can you give me, you know, that inside scoop on what I should be looking for?

这就是我从本书获得的启示。在讨论退出策略和租房买房变量（这些内容很有价值）之前，我想先回到'我能负担多少房款'与'这是你唯一投资'的对比。这不是好投资，而是你唯一的投资。对我而言，最生动的阐释来自斯科特你写的另一本书。

That's what I got from this book. Now before we go into exit strategies and rent versus buy variables, which I think are really valuable, I wanted to actually go back just for a second to how much house can I afford versus that this is your only investment? It's not a good investment. It's your only investment. And to me, one of the best illustrations of that that really helped pull that together to me was actually, Scott, another book that you wrote.

那是我特别钟爱的《财务自由之路》，书中提到的饼图分析令人印象深刻。虽然这有点像是硬广（笑），但我是真心喜欢那本书。希望你能向大家说明：当以'我能负担多少房款'为起点时——

It's another really one that I love a lot, Set For Life where you talked about the pie chart. And, yeah, I know. Get a little plug there. I wasn't expecting that, but I do genuinely love that book. And I just wanted you to illustrate for people how when you start with a question, how much house can I afford?

若只依赖房贷计算器给出的数字，最终可能导致税后所剩无几，陷入'房奴'困境。能否帮我们确定：当住房成为唯一投资时，预算占比多少才合理？

And you rely on the real estate lending calculator to give you that answer, you do put yourself in a situation where after taxes you have nothing left. House poor. Can you help us establish what percentage, when this is going to your home, it's going to be your only investment?

这个问题确实复杂且充满细微差别。我尽量简明回答：不同地区中位数收入和房价差异很大。比如中西部城镇的中位数收入就远低于旧金山。

So great. I I think that there's a complicated nuanced answer to that. So I'll try to answer that as simply as I can. In a place like, median incomes differ around the country as do home prices. In a town like in the Midwest, median incomes are gonna be lower than they are in San Francisco.

食品杂货、汽油等生活成本差异，不会像收入中位数和房价差异那么显著。在中西部，你可能将20-30%收入用于住房，其他开支约400美元；而在旧金山，杂货可能要4.5美元（举例而已）。我想强调的是：旧金山中位数收入更高——假设孟菲斯生活成本3万，旧金山3.5万，但两地收入中位数分别是40.42和85（单位：千），那么旧金山居民能负担5万住房支出，孟菲斯只有1.2万。这就是为什么人们觉得房价与收入脱节时会惊呼'市场疯了'。

The cost of food, going to the grocery store or getting gas, is not gonna be as different as the income differentials, median income differentials, and the home price differentials in those areas. So in a place like the Midwest, you might be able to spend 20 or 30% of your income on housing and all the other goods like grocery stores is gonna be $400. In San Francisco, the grocery store might be $4.50. I don't know. But what I'm trying to point out is that in a place like San Francisco where the median income is much higher, if it costs $30,000 to live in Memphis and 35,000 to live in San Francisco and the median income in Memphis is $40.42 and the median income in San Francisco is 85, then $50,000 can go towards housing in San Francisco, and $12,000 can go to housing in Memphis, which is why people are like, oh, housing prices are tied to median incomes, and that's when they're out of whack.

情况确实复杂。所有超过基本生活需求的剩余收入，都会流向最稀缺的资产——在多数市场就是房产。所以实际操作中没有放之四海皆准的法则。听众需要根据所在地域制定本地化标准，这正是问题最精微之处所在。

Things are are are crazy, and that's why this market's overpriced. No. All disposable income over that level that's needed for your your day to day life and a typical lifestyle can go towards the scarcest asset, which is housing in many of these markets. So there is no, like, rule of thumb with this in a practical sense. You If you're listening to various parts of the country, you're gonna have rules of thumb for your local area, but that's where it gets super nuanced with this.

所以我认为这也是个陷阱问题，答案在于我能买多小的房子？为了满足基本生活需求，我最低需要支付多少？要真正批判性地消除所有多余部分，那些我不会真正享受的浪费，因为每多花一分钱在住房上，都是在降低我的自由程度。

So I think that's also a trick question, and the answer is, how little house can I buy? What's the smallest amount I can pay to meet my basic lifestyle needs and wants? And really get critical about eliminating all of the surplus there, all of the waste that I'm not really going to enjoy because every extra bit I spend on housing is going against my freedom level.

太棒了。我很赞同。是的，你知道的，总还有其他变量需要考虑。所以带着这个想法，让我们回到租房与买房的讨论，真正谈谈那些变量和细微差别。

Awesome. Love it. Yep. It's always, you know, well, there's other variables to consider. So with that in mind, let's come back to rent versus buy and really talk about those variables, that nuance.

你刚才随口提到了两个变量。肯定还有更多，但听起来时间和地理位置可能是首要考虑的因素。然后我还听到了增值潜力。Scott，你能分享一下在进行租房与买房分析时你会考虑哪些变量吗？

You know, you mentioned two of them in passing. I'm sure there's more, but it sounds like time and location is probably, like, one of the first ones. And then I also heard appreciation. Can you share with us kind of the variables that you would consider, Scott, when doing that rent versus buy analysis?

是的。我认为时间会是最大的因素，包括你的增值率是多少，以及你能做些什么来推动增值，这又把我们带回到退出策略上。比如，我能更快提升房产价值吗？这样能让盈亏平衡点更有利。因为核心问题是：我该租房还是买房？

Yeah. Well, I think time is gonna be the biggest one, what your appreciation rate's gonna be, and what you can do to force that appreciation, which brings us back to exit strategies. You know, can I increase the value of the property sooner? Which brings my breakeven point to better. Because the question is, do I rent versus buy?

哪个对我来说更便宜，而不是哪个是更好的投资。对吧？更便宜的选择很大程度上取决于你持有房产的时间线，以及其他细微差别，比如你所在城市的租金成本、购房成本。在旧金山或纽约这样的地方，购房成本高得令人望而却步，你可能无法获得心仪房产的购买资格。

Which is less expensive for me, not which is the better investment. Right? The less expensive option is gonna largely depend on your timeline for holding the property and the other nuances around how much it costs to rent in your city, how much it costs to buy. Also, in some places, like San Francisco or New York, it's just prohibitively expensive to buy. You may not be able to qualify for a property that you'd wanna live in to purchase.

因此，在这些地区做此类决定时，有些因素会显得更加明显。

And so there's, like, some factors that are kinda more obvious around those types of decisions in some of those areas.

嘿，Mindy。当我向Scott询问关于年限的经验法则时，他确实对时间线问题提出了异议，明智地指出：你住在里面的时间与你持有该房产的时间是完全不同的概念。对吧？你完全可以选择出租它。

Hey, Mindy. When I asked the question to Scott about, you know, the rule of thumb for, like, a number of years, he he pushed back certainly on on the the timeline question saying wisely that, hey. You living in it is very distinct from how long you own that property. Right? And you could potentially rent it.

所以我想问你的问题更多不是从数字角度，而是从心理层面——关于你理想居住家园与投资属性交汇点的思考。当你不一定考虑出租时（大多数人确实不会），也要审视其租赁特性。明白吗？因为这其实是一个连续统一体，并非简单的‘这就是最佳出租房产’就能概括。

So I guess my question to you is more not from the numbers side, but just from the psychological side of that intersection between the home that you want to live in and also on the front side of this, when you're not thinking about renting it necessarily, or most people are not thinking about renting it, also looking at the rental characteristics. Right? Because so there's a continuum here. This is not just a straight, hey. This is the best rental property.

它符合Bigger Pockets的1%法则等等。请详细谈谈这个交汇点。

It meets the bigger pockets, 1% rule, etcetera. So talk me through that intersection.

我认为Scott是在鼓励你做出最明智的选择，跳出自身需求来思考。不要局限于当下自住的观念。因为很多首次购房者买房只是为了自住。我不知道你怎么想，但我的第一套房是套公寓，两居室。

I think that Scott is trying to encourage you to make the smartest choice and think outside of your own needs. Think outside of your immediate living in the property idea. Because for a lot of first time homebuyers, they're buying it for themselves to live in. And I don't know about you, but my first house was a condo. It had two bedrooms.

物业费高得离谱，而且我入住后第二个月就翻倍了——这又是另一个故事了。但它根本不符合我当前需求，我也知道不会永远住那里。可我甚至从没考虑过出租它。我是说，我装修了因为当时只能买得起这么破的房子，但完全没想过其他可能性。所以‘我的需求’和‘出租潜力’的交汇点其实很容易评估？现在你们可有福了。

It had a super high HOA fee, which then doubled the next month that I lived in there, and that's another story for another day. But it didn't serve my current needs, and I knew I wasn't gonna be there forever. But I also never even considered renting it out or I mean, I fixed it up because it was horrible because it's all I could afford, but I didn't even look at what else could have been a possibility. So the intersection of what do I need versus how can I rent it out, that's really easy to look at? You've got god.

我差点在互联网发明前就买了房，可见我有多老。但现在你们有Craigslist、Zillow和

I almost bought my house before the Internet was invented. That's how old I am. But now you've got Craigslist and Zillow and

Redfin这些平台。

Redfin. Stuff.

还有Facebook Marketplace等各种渠道，几乎在任何地方都能找到出租信息。只要你花点时间观察市场：看，这套背靠铁轨、只有一个卫生间两间卧室的破房子已经挂牌很久了。

All these different places that you can Facebook Marketplace. You can find a rental almost anywhere. So if you just take a little bit of time and start looking for, you know, what's being rented out. Oh, look. This horrible house that backs up to the train tracks that has one bathroom and two bedrooms has been on the market forever.

也许那并不那么理想。而这个位于整洁小社区的另一个地方，拥有带泳池、公园、篮球场和网球场等设施的业主协会，那里的房子在出租时总是瞬间被抢光。所以做点调研能帮你了解人们真正需要什么。一般来说，人们需要不止一个卫生间，所以别买只有一个浴室的房子。

Maybe that's not so desirable. Whereas this other place in this really neat little neighborhood that has an HOA with a pool and a park and basketball courts and tennis courts and all these things, those houses get snapped up instantly when they're being rented out. So doing a little bit of research will really help you see what people are looking for. In general, people want more than one toilet. So don't buy a house that only has one bathroom.

人们需要能容纳多人共同生活的空间。因此，一个家庭更倾向于租三居室而非两居室的房子。当然这些都是普遍规律——三居室既能住更多人，也能改造成家庭办公室。不知道你是否注意到，现在疫情还没结束，人们正追求更宽敞的空间。

People want space for multiple people to live with them. So a family is going to rent out a three bedroom house versus a two bedroom house more frequently. And, of course, these are all generalizations. But a three bedroom house can have more people, or it can have that home office. I don't know if you know this, but there's a little bit of a pandemic going on right now, and people are looking for more space.

新闻里有很多关于人们逃离城市迁往郊区的报道，因为那里活动空间更大。孩子们有后院可以玩耍，不必接触其他小孩。所以更大的空间通常更受欢迎。不过在房地产领域，'怪异'永远是个贬义词。没人会想要九居室的房子，那太离谱了。

There's actually a lot of stories in the news media about how people are leaving the cities and going to the suburbs because they can spread out. Their kids have a place to play, like, in the backyard where they don't have to con come into contact with other kids. So, you know, more space is going to generally be better. Now weird is always a four letter word in real estate. So you don't want some nine bedroom house because nobody wants a nine bedroom house.

但三居或四居室不算奇怪，五居及以上就开始有点另类了。所以要在个人喜好与租赁需求之间找到平衡点，这需要做些调研。本书的核心观点就是：别今天决定买房明天就下单，这不是明智的财务决策。

But a three or four bedroom house is not weird. Five and above starts to get a little bit strange. So the intersection of what do you want versus what can you rent out, you really need to do a little bit of research. And I think the overarching theme of this book is don't just decide you're gonna buy a house today and then put an offer in tomorrow. That's not a smart financial maneuver.

所以请做好调研，花时间明确你的需求，再采取行动。

So do some research. Spend some time figuring out exactly what you want, and go from there.

我认为这些内容为我们奠定了良好基础。希望听众现在能意识到：'确实，上次买房时我本该考虑这些变量，或者下次/首次购房时要注意这些因素。' 归根结底，我们想说明的是存在优化购房的方法。那么接下来的问题——斯科特，这个问题交给你：

Well, I think this really sets us up. We've kind of what I hope people have come away with right now is, oh, yeah. There's some variables that I probably either should have considered when I purchased my last one, or now I know they need to be on the radar as we purchase our next one or our first one. But really all of this has just been to say there is a way to do this right to optimize this. And then the question that that poses is, I guess, Scott, I'll send this to you.

对于正在收听的首次购房者，或对上次购房有遗憾的二次买家，怎样才能达成一笔超值交易？

If someone is listening to this either as a first time buyer or a second time buyer with regrets about last time, how do I get a great deal?

是的。关于这一点，我想在讨论的最后部分补充一点，这里有三个选项。不是住或租的问题，而是说，买房后大多数人可能会面临三种情况。

Yeah. Well, for this, I I wanna add one thing onto the last part of the discussion here where where there's three options here. It's not living it or rent it. It's, hey. There's three things that will happen after you buy your home, most likely for most people.

第一，你会一直快乐地住到搬离或出售的那天。第二，你会搬走并找个租客，短期或长期出租。第三，你会卖掉它。而你面临的选择是：我要住在一个让自己痛苦的地方吗？如果出租，我会每月亏损吗？

One, you're gonna continue living there happily until the day you move out or sell it. The second is you're gonna leave, and you're gonna put a renter in place, short term or long term. Or the third is you're gonna sell it. And your choice you have there is, am I gonna live in a place that's gonna make me miserable? Am I gonna live in a place there if I rented it out, I would lose money every month?

我要住在一个出售时很可能亏本的房子吗？这些结果中积极面越真实——住得越开心、出租能现金流平衡或盈利、出售获利机会越大——我的处境就越好。这些因素会在决策过程中相互冲突，你需要决定在这三个维度上各自能接受的程度。三者都越理想，你的处境就越好，成功概率越高；反之则越糟。

Am I gonna live in a place where if I try to sell it, I have a high chance of of losing money? The more true the positive ends of those outcomes are, the happier I am living in it, the more I can rent it out with cash flow or breakeven, and the better chance I have of selling it at a gain, the better off I am. So those things are all gonna be in conflict during your decision making process, and you have to decide how far along the spectrum you're willing to go on each one of those three things. The more true all three things are, the better off you are and the better odds of your success you have. The less true, the worse off you are.

可悲的是，我认为大多数人甚至不会考虑另外两种可能性。他们购房时只想‘我喜欢这房子就买’，我称之为‘买了就祈祷法’——祈祷房子升值，等住够年限后能盈利出售。我认为这就是他们的思维框架。如果你能牢记这三点，我就能回答什么是好交易，因为这直接关联到如何定义并追求好交易。

And what sadly, I think most people do is they don't they don't even think about those other two possibilities. They just go into the purchase like, I like this house. I'm gonna buy, and I call it the buy and pray method, and pray it goes up in value so that it goes up enough over the the time I'm living in it for me to sell it at a profit. That is, I think, the the framework within that. And so if you can keep those three things in mind, then I can answer your question about good deal, Cause I think that that's directly it ties in directly to defining what a good deal is and going after it.

确实如此。我想给你机会回答最初的问题，但我注意到这里有个中间问题——算是个观察。Mindy或许也能谈谈。作为首次购房者，我们没这么做，但曾动过寻找‘永久居所’的念头。我很好奇，鉴于刚才提到的三大要素，‘永久居所’未必总能同时满足这三个变量的理想象限。

It does. And I want I want to give you the chance to actually answer the question I asked the first time, but I think I've noticed there's a little intermediate question here, and it's an observation. Maybe, Mindy, you can tackle this as well. I know that myself as a first time home buyer, we did not do this, but we were tempted to start looking for our forever home. And I'm curious because talking about his big three that he just mentioned, you know, the forever home doesn't always accommodate all three of those variables in the correct quadrant.

我想知道，对于心怀‘永久居所’念头的首次购房者，你会如何评估这种情况？

And I'm just curious, like, what would be your assessment of that first time homebuyer that is that has in mind a forever home?

这是个很棒的想法，但你们不搬家的概率几乎为零。我意识到自己的经历与多数人不同，但直到几周前卖房前，我这辈子从没在同一栋房子住超过五年。童年时我们搬进房子从没想过很快卖掉，但成年后我经常这么做。‘永久居所’这个概念真的...呃，我可能要惹麻烦了。

It's a really great idea, and the chances of you not moving is almost zero. I realize that my experiences are different than most people's, but until I just sold a house a couple of weeks ago, until I sold that house, I had never lived in a house for more than five years in my whole life. And we never moved into a house expecting to sell it super soon as a kid. As an adult, yeah, I've done that all the time. But this concept of a forever home is really, I think, boy, I could get into hot water here.

我认为这完全是一堆废话。它不会成为你永远的家。20岁时，你理论上负担不起50岁时能负担的房子。20岁时，你可能还没有孩子和丈夫，也不需要那么多空间。为什么要在20岁时买一套3000平方英尺的房子，就为了那微小的可能性——你会留在同一个地方、可能做着同一份工作、嫁给一个会搬来同住的人、生孩子、然后才能填满那3000平方英尺的房子？

I think it's I think it's a bunch of garbage. It's not gonna be your forever home. When you're 20, you can't afford the same house that you can afford when you're 50 in theory. When you're 20, you don't necessarily have kids and a husband, and you don't need so much space. Why would you buy a 3,000 foot square foot house when you're 20 on the off chance that you're gonna stay in the same place, maybe stay in the same job, marry somebody who will then move in with you, have kids, and be able to then fill out the 3,000 square foot house?

这根本说不通。我觉得这就是个兜售给人们的童话故事，根本不现实。

It just doesn't make sense. And I think it's this, like, fairy tale that's being sold to people, and it isn't really realistic.

嗯，在我看来这也是激励机制的错位，对吧？就像你们书中提到的——所有人都想让你买最大最贵的房子，因为他们能从中赚最多钱。从贷款方到中介，再到给你装修'永恒之家'厨房的承包商等等，都是如此。就像你说的，这其实是脱离现实的激励机制问题——大多数人甚至住不满十年，更别提三四十年了。

Well, it's also it seems to me that it's misaligned incentives as well, right, which is what you guys allude to in the book, which is everybody wants you to buy the largest and most expensive home that you possibly can because they make the most money out of it. Right? From the lenders to the agents to the contractors putting in your beautiful forever home kitchen and etcetera, etcetera. Right? Like, this is a case of misaligned incentives coming up with and against reality, which, like you said, most people are not gonna live in their home for even probably ten years, not less thirty, forty, fifty years.

对吧？所以到目前为止，我从对话中领悟最深的就是扩大所谓的'认知范围'。在购房时至少要把这些因素纳入考量。哪怕只是心里有个印象：记得斯科特和米妮提醒过我要注意这些那些。

Right? So I think to me, what I've gleaned from this conversation most so far is, like, increasing that zone of awareness as we call it. Like, just being aware of these things when you go in. And if it's at least somewhere in your mindset, then, okay. I remember Scott and Minnie told me to look out for this, that, and that.

光是这一点就让我受益匪浅。真的，这本质上就是在拓展认知范围。所以我非常认同这个观点。

And, like, there's there's huge value to me just in that alone. So, yeah, this is it's really it's just, again, it's expanding that zone of awareness. So I love that.

大家好，我是'选择五号'团队的安德鲁。希望你们喜欢这个访谈。稍事休息后我们马上回来。

Hey. This is Andrew from the Choose a Five team. Hope you're enjoying the interview. We're gonna get right back to it right after these quick messages.

斯科特，回到你刚才说的——提前明确这点很重要：好交易的部分标准是认清我们财务旅程的阶段。要明白'永恒之家'并非首次购房的理想目标，也要认清所有那些我们可能不会长住的理由。如果不尽早关注这点，等我们真正有能力换房时，反而能更清楚自己想要什么生活方式、需要哪些配套设施，从而聚焦更关键的问题——现在我把话题交还给你。

And to get it back to you, Scott, like, it really is important to address that upfront to say part of the good deal is recognizing where we are in our financial journey by recognizing that the the forever home really is not an ideal target for this first home buyer experience and recognizing for all the reasons we probably won't be here by not focusing on this early. We're going to have more assets that when we are in the place to get the one we'll be, have a better idea of what we want. So now what is the lifestyle we want? What are the accommodations we need? And then we can really focus on the better question, which to you and give it right back to you.

如何在获得超值交易的同时，不被所谓的'永久居所'带来的负担所拖累？我想先简单探讨这一点，然后再请你帮我们制定第二部分的策略。

How do I get a great deal without being saddled with the baggage that comes with the forever home? So I just wanted to kind of touch on that and then give it back to you to help us strategize the second piece.

没错。现状就是如此。这包含三个层面：首先是战略层面——当你退一步思考这个决定的后果、所有选项以及'这真的是我要住一辈子的房子吗'这个问题时，这可能是个价值数十万甚至百万美元的问题。

That's right. That's what we have. There's three parts to this. There's a strategy, you know, which is several 100,000, maybe million dollar question if you kind of can zoom out and and think about the consequences of the decision and all the options and the fact that, hey. Am I really buying my forever home?

我是在为自己未来三十年（至少未来十到十五年）购买一座监狱吗？明白吗？这才是你要回答的核心问题。第二个价值2.5万美元的问题是：与市场上其他选择相比，我怎样才能达成划算交易？然后那个价值2000美元的问题是：检查后热水器是否需要更换？

Am I buying myself a prison for the next thirty years or at least the next ten or fifteen? You know? So that's the major question that you're answering. The second one, the $25,000 question, is how do I get a good deal versus what else is on the market? And then the, you know, the the $2,000 question is, is the water heater gonna have to be replaced after inspection?

但人们往往以相反的顺序担忧这些问题。我们当然会讨论热水器这类检查事项，因为它们可能涉及1万或2万美元，但这些其实都是成交过程中的细节问题。总之，关于划算交易——关键在于我要评估自己在这三种结果光谱中的位置，以及如何实现最优解。

And everybody worries about them in the reverse order, I think, around that. We certainly talk about the water heater and all those kinds of things in inspection because they can be the 10 or the 20, but those are the the details around the closing process and those types of things. So, anyways, good deal. Great. Once I figured out, like, I'm gonna assess where in that spectrum I lie across these three outcomes and how I wanna maximize that.

完美方案是：永久自住/搬出后短租或长租/通过装修或市场增值转售获利。确定目标后，我必须极其清晰地明确需求——听起来简单，却是多数人跳过的步骤。我到底要什么？

Great. Live in it forever, rent it out, short or long term after I move out, or sell for profit, doing work, or letting the market carry me. Once I decide what I want to do there, I need to get crystal clear on what I want. Sounds very simple, but it's the step that a lot of people skip. What do I want?

我要三卧两卫、XX平方英尺的面积、双车位车库、这些特定社区。我愿意在这个社区边界多付钱，在那个边界少付钱。

I want three beds, two baths. I want x amount of square feet. I want a two car garage. I want these neighborhoods. I want to pay more on this edge of that neighborhood and less on that edge of that neighborhood.

对吧？这需要投入数十小时——虽然不是两百小时，但首次购房前花25小时理清需求、说服配偶等准备工作很必要。明确需求后，第二步就是确定价格区间：我是不是活在童话世界里...

Right? And that's a several hour this is not a two hundred hour activity, but it's a twenty five hour activity to get set up to buy your first home and kind of figure out what you want, get your spouse on board, all those types of questions. Once I know what I want, the sec second thing is I gotta figure out, great. What's the price range for that? And am I living in Fairy, you know, Fairy

我不知道你会怎么接那句话。仙女不是陆地。是啊。

I didn't know how you were gonna complete that sentence. Fairy wasn't land. Yeah.

所以是啊。

So yeah.

仙境听起来很酷。

Fairyland sounds cool.

我是在幻想乐园吗？这就是我要找的。那么我该怎么做呢？当我在2021年查看房源时，比如，看看丹佛有什么在售的？我看的是活跃房源。

Am I in Fantasyland? That's what I was looking for. And so how do I do that? When I pull up the listings right now in 2021, and I look at, like, oh, what's for sale in Denver? I look at the active listings.

房源中的房产几天内就能售出。它们一上市就立刻被抢购。所以如果你在看活跃房源，很可能你看到的要么是过去两天刚上市的一两套房产，要么就是那些定价过高或存在严重问题的房子——这对首次购房者来说非常打击信心。那么我该如何绕过这个困境，确定自己实际的购房能力呢？我甚至不会点击活跃房源的筛选条件。

Listings are Properties are selling in just a matter of days. They'll go on the market and they'll right off. So if you're looking at active listings, that means most likely, you're either looking at the one or two properties that have come on the market in the last two days, or you're looking at the properties that are very overpriced something's horribly, horribly wrong with them, which is incredibly discouraging to you as a first time home buyer. So how do I get around that and determine what's realistic for me to purchase? I don't even click the filter for what's active.

我会取消勾选那个选项，转而去查看Zillow上过去180天的成交记录，或是通过经纪人获取同期数据。过去半年内成交的房产才能真实反映当前市场行情。然后我不断调整搜索条件、价格区间，直到筛选出约10套符合我需求的近期成交房源——就是那些如果我在看房时没发现地基或屋顶等重大硬伤的话，我本会出手购买的房子。如果能做到这点，你就明白自己的购房目标既真实存在又具备可行性。

I uncheck that box and I look at what's sold on Zillow or what with my agent in the last hundred and eighty days. Properties that have sold within the last one hundred and eighty days are what's actually going on in your market. And I refine my search, my criteria, my price range until I've got maybe 10 properties that have sold in the last one hundred and eighty days that I would have bought, you know, I drive past from whatever, barring something horribly wrong with the foundation or roof or something in inspection. Right? And if you can nail that, now you know that what you want exists and is realistic.

我只是...这真是让人大开眼界。我从未尝试过你刚才演示的这种逆向筛选法，虽然有时房产经纪人会提供可比案例。但以我自己的搜索经验来说——正好用你这个例子强调重点——假设市场最初有10套房子，价格分别是32.5万、35万、37.5万、40万、42.5万和45万。

I just wanna I wanted this was, like, one of the most massive eye opening things. I've never done that reverse filter that you just did. Although sometimes, you know, your real estate agent will bring you comps. But as a searcher myself, just because you use this example, and I really wanna make sure people latch on this. Let's say there were 10 homes on the market originally, and you have homes at 325, 350, 375, 400, 425, and 450.

然后大概375以下的所有房子都卖完了。所以当你登录时，你只能看到400、425和450的房子，在400或425之间，你选了425那套，心想：看这个，我觉得自己捡了大便宜，因为有个房子标价4.5美元。是这样吧？

And then all the homes up to maybe 375 are gone, have sold. And so when you log in, you just see homes at 400, 425 and 450 and the home at 400 or 425, you pick the 425 house and you're saying, look at that. I think I got a great deal because there's a home listed at $4.50. Is that There you go.

对，这就是大错特错。很多人都会犯这个错误。这种情况下那套房子的价格应该是3.5到3.99美元，对吧？

Yeah. That's the big mistake. That's the mistake many people make. The price for that home is $3.50 to $3.99 in that case. Right?

你以400的价格买贵了，但你觉得这在你们市场算划算，所以就买了，还以为捡了便宜。但如果你该做的是——这其实不难——像Zillow或任何本地MLS系统都能让你几秒钟内查清楚。你得花几个小时，像我说的，消化这些信息，查看房产，仔细思考。但这并不费时间，却能避免你看到活跃房源时对市场产生的扭曲认知所带来的风险。

You're overpaying at 400, but that's what you think is the good deal in your market, and so you buy that one thinking it's a good deal. But if you should do this, this is not a hard exercise. Every like, Zillow or any of your local MLSs will allow you to figure this out in seconds to kinda take a look at that. And you have to spend a few hours, like I mentioned, digesting that and looking at the properties and thinking through them. But it's not like this is, like, a time consuming endeavor, and it can avoid so much risk in your distorted view of the market that you're gonna get when you look at the active listings.

这也可以作为筛选经纪人的方法。因为刚才斯科特讲话时，我打开了有权限的MLS系统，按他说的点击各种选项，还没等他说完我就找到房源了。当然，我之前听过他的讲解，知道他的思路。但获取这些信息真的不难。

This could be another way to screen agents. Because as Scott was talking, I opened up my MLS that I have access to, and I started clicking all the things that he's saying. And I got listings before he was done talking. And granted, I've heard his discussion before, so I knew where he was going with it. But it isn't that hard to get this information.

如果你联系了经纪人，而他们不愿意为你做这些，那正好可以把他们从名单上划掉。因为你的经纪人应该能为你做些基本工作，帮你做出明智的财务选择。

And if you're reached out to an agent and they're unwilling to do this for you, that's a great way to cross them off the list. Because your agent should be able to do a modest amount of work for you to help you make a smart financial choice.

没错。我们其实该聊聊这个话题。接下来我们要回到激励一致性的概念。明迪，我知道你是经纪人。总体来看，经纪人水平参差不齐。

Yep. Well, let's let's talk about that, actually. So we're gonna we're gonna come back to the idea of incentive alignment. Mindy, I know you are an agent. And, just generally looking at that, like, not all agents are created equal.

大多数人都会和经纪人合作，但服务质量差异巨大。所以我觉得我们该花点时间讨论激励一致性，选择经纪人时要关注什么，以及必须避免什么。你们谁来接这个话题？

Most of us will work with an agent, but there's a huge disparity in the quality of services rendered. And so I I I think we should probably spend a little bit of time talking about incentive alignment, what to look for, and what to avoid at all cost when working with an agent. How do you parse that? Either of you wanna grab it and run?

不过我有个想法。我的长篇大论才说到一半。我们还没讨论完如何达成好交易呢。

I got one thing though. I'm like halfway through my rant. We haven't finished about how to get a good deal quite yet.

你想听好的是吧，想在这里分析？我们还没谈完好交易的事。你不会输的。我知道你还有更多建议。

You want well, you wanna parse it here? We are not done with good a good deal. You're not losing. I know you have more tips to come.

好吧，我...我很兴奋。我...我还有更多要说的。

Alright. I'm I'm excited. I got I got more things.

朋友，先做个标记。我们现在先别...先别离开这个话题。

Just bookmark your spot, my friend. Let's just not let's not walk away from the agent right now.

关于房产经纪人，你应该问他们很多问题，在决定合作前一定要面试他们，因为他们将协助你做出可能涉及数十万美元的决策和购买。你需要一个真正站在你这边、为你着想的人。但经纪人的激励机制未必与你的价值观一致——我卖给你的房子越多赚得越多，但这未必对你最有利。我认为自己是不同类型的经纪人，因为我不会为了自身最大利益而强行推销。

So for the agent, there's a lot of questions that you should be asking your agent, and you should absolutely interview your agent before you decide to work with them because they are helping you make a most likely hundreds of thousands of dollars decision and purchase. And you need to have somebody who's on your side, who is looking out for you. But the way that agents are incentivized is not necessarily in alignment with your values. I get more money the more house I sell to you, and that's not necessarily the best financial choice for you. I feel that I am a different kind of agent because I'm not pushing you into something that is gonna benefit me the most.

作为你的经纪人我依然能获得丰厚回报。但我觉得你需要联系真正考虑你需求的人。说实话，我非常害怕帮了别人后，他们到处说'天啊，那次体验太糟了，感觉她根本没帮上忙'。

I'm still getting a whole lot of benefit out of being your agent. And I think that you need to connect with somebody who is really going to be considerate of what you want. I am so, frankly, terrified of helping somebody and having them go around and say, wow. I had a terrible experience. I didn't feel like she helped me at all.

我的天，我绝不想和那种人合作。我...我绝不想让人对与我的合作产生那种印象。我正对着客户信息轰炸，给你这个信息那个信息，让你成为最了解整个流程的人。

Oh my goodness. I never want to work with somebody like that. I I'm like, I never want somebody to have that impression of their experience with me. I'm word vomiting all over my clients. Here's information and more information and more information, and you are the most informed person about the process.

想象一下和Mindy一起做房地产经纪人？快速搞定。你能想象你需要处理的海量数据吗？

Imagine working with Mindy as a real estate agent? Just quick pluck real quick. Can you imagine the amount of sheer data that you would have to look at?

一旦我弄清楚你在找什么，只要房源一上市，马上就能给你。这里应有尽有。而且，我觉得你应该只和我合作，但我并不是在所有50个州都有执照。所以嗯...首先你得找个让你觉得舒服的人。

There's once I figure out what you're looking for, as soon as it comes on the market, here you go. Here's just a bunch of everything. And, you know, I think you should work with me exclusively, but I'm not licensed in all 50 states. So Mhmm. You need to find somebody who you feel comfortable with, first of all.

我是说，别只是看到别人院子里的招牌就打电话过去说'嗨，你能做我的经纪人吗？'我打赌他们会答应，因为——不是想贬低这个行业，毕竟有很多幕后工作你看不到——但这也没那么难。所以找个靠谱的人。话说你认识多少经纪人？

I mean, don't just drive by a sign in somebody's yard and call them up and be like, hey. Would you be my agent? I bet they say yes because it's not boy, I don't wanna throw agency under the bus because there is a lot of moving parts that you don't see from the front end, but it's not that hard either. So find somebody. And, I mean, how many agents do you know?

现在连路人甲都是经纪人。嘿Scott，你是经纪人吗？

Everybody and their mom is an agent right now. Hey, Scott. Are you an agent?

我是。不过这些年我其实没代理过客户，但没错，就是...

I am. I don't really represent any clients in years, but, yeah, that's the

现在谁不是经纪人呢？Brad，如果你今天要卖房子，你那17个经纪人朋友里会选谁来挂牌？大家都认识经纪人，所以找人面试很容易。找到人后好好面试——如果他们回答含糊其辞、现编乱造，或者面试时都对你爱答不理，想想真正接手客户时会是什么样？

Everybody is and how many agents do you know? Brad, if you were gonna sell your house today, which one of your 17 agent friends would you use to list your house? I mean, everybody knows an agent, so it's easy to find somebody to interview. Find somebody and interview them. And if they don't have the good answers, if it sounds like they're making stuff up, if they're too busy for you when you're interviewing them, imagine how they're going to be when they're, you know, juggling a bunch of clients.

我现在手头有六到八个客户处于不同交易阶段。但我仍然有时间处理，或者直接告诉他们'我没空，可以推荐其他有时间的经纪人'。关键是要在决定合作前问清楚问题，得到你能理解的答案。

I've got, like, six or eight clients right now in various stages of the process. And I still have time for them, or I tell them point blank, I don't have time for you. I can send you to somebody else who who does have time for you. But ask questions and get the answers that you understand before deciding to work with somebody.

既然我们在这里讨论首次购房者，当Scott提到那些巨额开支时，当然在卖方那边，有销售佣金。但对于首次购房者来说，你能想到任何不找买方代理的好理由吗？还是说这绝对是板上钉钉的事？因为卖家会支付费用，所以对你来说没有成本。比如，你知道，给首次购房者的建议就是找个好中介吗？

And since we're talking about first time homebuyers here, so when Scott was talking about those massive expenses, certainly on the sell side, right, there's the commissions on the sell side. But on the that first time home buying side, is there any good reason for somebody to not have a buyer's agent that you can think of? Or is that an absolute slam dunk? It doesn't cost you anything because the seller's paying it. Like, you know, is that the advice to a first time homebuyer is get a good agent?

故事结束。或者，我想总会有一些奇怪的特例，但对于99%的人来说，这差不多是个经验法则吧？

End of story. Or, know, I guess there's always some bizarro instance, but, like, for 99% of people, is that a pretty much rule of thumb?

记住，在大多数情况下，卖家通常会支付挂牌中介和买方中介的佣金。所以实际上，我认为生活中没有什么是板上钉钉的，总有例外。但是，是的，如果你是第一次买房，你很可能应该使用中介，几乎可以肯定，除非你的具体情况特殊，比如你自己就是中介，或者你已经消费了一千小时的不动产投资内容，知道自己在做什么，并觉得可以从中获益。但这种情况非常罕见。

Remember, the seller usually, in most cases, is paying the commissions for both the listing and buyer agent. And so really, I think look, there's no such thing as a slam dunk in life. There's always exceptions. But, yeah, like, if you're buying your first home, you probably should use an agent, almost certainly, unless there's something about your specific situation, like you are an agent or, you know, you've consumed a thousand hours of, real estate investing content to know what you're doing about this and feel like you can you can can advantage out of there. But very rare cases will be practical for someone

去

to

不使用买方代理，而是自己代表自己。

not use a buyer agent and to represent them.

我有个朋友想首次购房。我可以相当自信地说，98%以上的人都会找中介，对吧？

So I have a friend who's looking to buy a first time home. I can say with relative confidence, 98 plus percent, get an agent. Right?

我认为这非常合理。我同意这个观点。

I think that's very reasonable. I'd agree with that.

我要更进一步地说，除非你的朋友是从他父母那里购买这处房产——而且他父母从这块地皮存在起就拥有它——否则他们需要一个经纪人，因为他们是首次购房者。正如我所说，这里面有很多你不了解的复杂环节，当你没有专业人士在旁指导时，很容易犯下代价高昂的错误。

I'm gonna go a little bit further and say, unless your friend is buying it from his parents who have owned it since the dirt was put down there, they need an agent because they're a first timer. Like I said, there's a lot of moving parts that you don't know about, and it's really easy to make a very expensive mistake when you don't have somebody in your corner helping guide you through the process.

好的。我们会把这些建议反馈给Scott，教他如何在这里达成一笔好交易。但我想先讨论我们刚刚简单提到的两个变量。显然，我们刚谈过要找个经纪人，找个优秀的经纪人。其次是，在你进行搜索时记得切换筛选标签。

Alright. So we're gonna get this back to Scott on how to get a good deal here, but I would just wanna talk about just two variables that we've just we've briefly, touched on here. And so, obviously, we just talked about, you know, get an agent. Get a great agent. And then two, change that filter tab when you're doing your searches.

你不需要关注活跃挂牌房源。你需要关注的是在你预设的时间窗口内（无论是180天、60天还是90天）实际成交的价格。你不在乎那些没卖出去的，你要了解的是这个市场的竞争价格。

You don't care about active listings. You care about what things sold for over a window that you've predetermined, whether it be a hundred and eighty, sixty days, ninety days, whatever that window you predetermined. What were they actually selling for? You don't care about what isn't selling. You wanna know what's competitive for this market.

这就是两点建议。Scott，现在轮到你——去面试经纪人。我补充一点：这本书里提供了大量实用技巧。虽然我们说了要面试经纪人，但人们常问：'我该问什么问题？'

So that's two. Scott, back to you, interview an agent. And I will just add on to this. You guys give a lot of great tips in the book. I know we said interview agent, but people say, well, what questions do I ask?

这本书专门用一整章来讲解如何找到优秀经纪人，以及你应该关注哪些品质和特质。所以如果你的后续问题是这个，书里已经涵盖了。我们就不深入讨论了。Scott，关于如何达成好交易？

This book has an entire chapter dedicated to how to find a great agent and what qualities and characteristics you would look for. So, you know, if that was your then follow-up question, it's covered in this book. We won't go much farther there on that. Scott, how to get a great deal?

是的。你已经确定了自己想要的，并据此设定了价格范围，或者看看这类房产是否经常成交。现在你需要做的是准备好去'钓鱼'而不是'打猎'——不知道这个比喻是否恰当。总之现在是夏天。

Yeah. You've determined what you want and whether or not that exists to set your price range or is is, generally speaking, selling on a somewhat frequent basis. Now, you have to set yourself up to go fishing rather than going hunting, I guess. Don't know if that's the right analogy. Well, that's summer.

我现在就像在等待一个道具。我大致知道自己要找什么，虽然不清楚具体会有哪些房源上市，但我知道目标区域的大致要求。我的经纪人已经帮我设置了搜索提醒，每当符合我条件的房产上市时就会通知我。现在是周四凌晨2:30，那个社区里带车库的三卧两卫房源就在这个价位挂牌上市了。

I am now waiting for a prop. I know, generally speaking, what I'm going look for. I don't know what specifically is going to come on the market, but I know what I'm looking for in a general area. And my agent has set me up with a search so that I get pinged every time a property that meets my criteria comes on the market. So it's 02:30 on Thursday, and that three bedroom, two bath with the garage in that neighborhood at that price point comes on the market as listed.

我取消了晚上的计划，我生活在一个可以随时取消晚间安排、驱车前往那处房产甚至当晚就能看房的世界。我已与贷款机构对接，获得预先批准或预审资格，随时准备出价，经纪人就在快速拨号名单上。我知道自己能在当天或次日对那处房产报价。这不是仓促决定，而是即时决策——因为我早已在冷静从容的状态下做好了准备，现在只等对心仪房产下钩。对吧？

I am canceling my evening plans, and I'm up a world in which I can cancel my evening plans and go drive to that property, maybe even view it that night. I'm set up with my lender. I'm preapproved or prequalified, ready to go to make an offer, and my agent is on speed dial, I know that I'm ready to make an offer that day or the next day on that property. I'm not making a rush decision, but I'm making an instantaneous decision because I've made the decision in a cool, calm, and collected period way ahead of time, and now I'm just waiting to hook the line on that property. Right?

那么我该如何为这种情况做好常规准备？人们常犯的大错就是想着'我租约6月30日到期，所以必须在6月30日前买房'。不，你做不到的。

And so how do I set myself up for that in a general basis? Well, a big mistake people make is they're like, oh, my my lease expires on June 30. Therefore, I need to buy a property before June 30. No. You're not gonna do that.

你不能为了省下每月150美元的短期租金或临时搬迁费用，就仓促做出40万或50万美元的购房决定。相比每月多付几百美元、暂住过渡房或延长找房周期，错误决策可能导致多付上万美元或买到不符合要求的房子——这个代价实在太高了。所以应该提前布局，当符合预判的房源出现时就能立即行动。

You cannot rush a 400,000 or $500,000 decision in order to avoid paying a $150 a month in month to month rent or moving it somewhere, short term while you continue your search. The stakes are just too high to justify paying a few $100 a month or something like that or delaying your search or living somewhere short term so that you can make a really good decision. That's a $10,000 error that you could make or or overpayment or get something that doesn't quite meet your criteria with that. So it's setting yourself up for a position to go fishing and then reacting instantaneously when what you've already predetermined you want to buy comes on the market.

那给出个解决方案吧。我认同这个逻辑——比如我的租约月底到期就必须买房，这确实是个昂贵的决策点。我们该怎么制定策略？

Well, give me a solution for that then. So I agree with the logic. Like, it's really you know, my lease ends at the end of this month, so, you know, I have to buy a new house. Like, that's a very expensive, you know, decision point. How do we strategize that?

如何优化方案才能消除这种限制性观念？

How do we optimize that so we take that limiting belief off the table?

联系房东询问租约到期后能否按月续租，每月多付150美元。或者签新租约时注明'愿意续签一年，但保留转租权'（当然转租对象要符合房东标准）。十有八九房东会接受某种付费方案，即便要付1000美元——相比50万美元的购房决策可能获得的优惠，这笔钱只相当于房款的0.2%。

Call your landlord and ask if you can go month to month when your lease expires for an extra $150 a month. Or sign another lease, but say, Hey, I'll sign it for another year, I but wanna be able to sublet the apartment when I move out, if that's the case, you know, to somebody who meets your criteria or whatever. Right? Landlords, nine times out of 10, are gonna accept some version of this for a fee, but that fee is probably, even if it's a thousand dollars, the odds of you getting a much better deal on your $500,000 decision are just so great. That's that's point 2% of the purchase price of a $500,000 property if it's a thousand bucks.

多数情况下只需多付几百美元。提前半年布局：开始思考'当我准备找房时要处在什么状态？'确保自己不会被迫仓促决定，留有充分灵活的决策空间。

In most most cases, it's gonna be a few $100. Just put yourself in a position six months ahead of time. Start You thinking about this, where, Hey, how am I gonna be when I'm ready to go searching? I'm not gonna be in a rush decision with this. Or, I've got a really comfortable band around this to be flexible.

因为你不能。否则你就会陷入我们讨论过的陷阱——因为那是当时市场上最好的房产，就花40万美元买下它，但这仍然是个糟糕的交易。

Because you can't. Otherwise, you're gonna fall into that trap that we discussed of of buying the $400,000 property because it's the best one on the market at the time, but it's still a bad deal.

现在我很好奇。你知道，这本书确实是围绕首次购房者展开的，这很合理。我们讨论的是那些原本独立或租房的人，现在要购买他们的第一套房子。那么对于那些现在已经有房子的人呢？也许他们的房子已经卖掉了。

Now I'm curious. You know, this book is really framed around first time home buyers, you know, that makes sense. We're talking about someone that was independent or talking about someone that was renting, that's now purchasing their first home. What about the individual that maybe has a home now? Maybe their home has sold.

他们即将面临交割日期。他们有个硬性截止日期，可能必须搬出去。也许他们有工作调动安排等等。他们心里有个外部强加的截止日期。你有没有一个通用的策略，比如你个人会如何看待我的选择？如果这个月买和下个月买只是50美元的差别，那就不必觉得非做不可。

They have a closing date coming up. They have this hard deadline that potentially they have to be out. Maybe they have a a work scheduled move, etcetera. They have some sort of externally imposed deadline in their mind. Do you have kind of a general, like, strategy that you kind of personally would look at for my options in terms of, you know, well, don't feel like you have to do this if it's gonna be a $50 mistake to purchase this month instead of next month.

你个人会如何制定策略？

How would you personally strategize that?

首先，如果我要搬去新地区，我会先签个月租合约。如果我没有房产，我要搬去新地方时，可能会想办法签个月租合约，或者留出足够提前量，以便能像之前讨论的那样冷静从容地提前做决定。至于购买第二套住房的具体技巧和策略，那会在我们即将出版的《纽约二次购房指南》里。开个玩笑。

Well, first, I'd I'd sign a month to month lease somewhere if I'm if I'm gonna move into a new area. If I don't own a property, I'm gonna move I'm gonna and I'm moving to a new place. I'm gonna probably get figure out a way to sign a month to month lease or have enough lead time to have really good odds of making this decision ahead of time in a cool, calm, and collected way like I discussed earlier. As far as the tip specific tips and strategies for buying your second home, that will be in our upcoming book, second time home buyer coming out in New York. Just kidding.

我们帮你准备好了。再等几个月就好。《第五次购房：第四次教训》2023年版。

We got you covered. We've got just wait a couple of months. Fifth time homebuyer, lessons learned the fourth fourth time around. Yeah. 2023 edition.

我们稍后会跟进。但我认为归根结底是要提前遵循退出策略。对吧？因为你最不想陷入的情况是——我随便编个数——15万美元的重大决策关头，然后说‘嘿’。

We will follow you for later. But I think that comes down to follow the exit strategies thing upfront. Right? Because what you don't wanna find yourself in and a $150,000 I'm making this up. But a huge stakes decision is, hey.

我在另一个城市找到了一份更好的工作，薪水也高出不少。如果我是租房住，这根本不用考虑。但因为我有自己的房子，而且不适合出租，我无法收回全部首付款，还得匆忙决定下一套房子的购买，这份工作机会就不划算了。这就是我之前提到的困境。

I got a new job in a better in another city. It's better pay by a good amount. If I was renting, it'd be a no brainer. But because I own my place, and it doesn't make sense as a rental, and I wouldn't recoup all of my down payment, and I'd have to make a rush decision on buying my next place, that job opportunity doesn't make sense. That's the prison that I was mentioning earlier.

如果你在首次购房时没有考虑这些退出策略就贸然决定，可能想买下永久居住的房子，结果却在800英里外的城市遇到绝佳工作机会。这会打乱一切计划。如果你现有房产的退出选择很糟糕，就无法抓住这个机会。这是个残酷的现实，我们不得不直面它，对吧？

If you make that decision upfront on the first time purchase without thinking through these exit strategies, you may wanna buy your forever home, and then you get a great job in a city 800 miles away opportunity. That disrupts everything and changes it. And you can't take that opportunity if your exit options stink right now with your current home. That's a brutal fact that we just have to kinda throw out there. Right?

所以首先要考虑如何预先设置好合适的退出选项，避免陷入这种困境。其次在做购房决定时，想办法先临时住几个月，同时寻找合适房源。明白吗？我认为，通过正确找到符合你退出标准的房产，很可能获得数万美元的收益优势，这很值得。

So how do you set yourself up with the right exit options up front so you don't find yourself in this situation is the first thing. And then when you make the buying decision, find a way to live temporarily for a few months while you conduct your search. You know? That's worth the tens of thousands of dollars advantage likely to accrue by being able to find that property that meets your exit criteria correctly, I think.

好吧，Scott在编造数字，但我昨天从客户那里拿到了真实数据。

Okay. Scott is making up numbers, but I actually have real life numbers that I got from my client yesterday.

不错。

Nice.

她问：'我是该签3个月还是6个月的新租约更划算？'我说：'有价格差异吗？'她回答：'12个月租约每月17.5美元，6个月19.77美元，3个月21.04美元。'看到这个你可能会惊呼。

She said, am I better off signing a new lease for three or six months? And I said, well, is there a price difference? She said, it is $17.50 a month for a twelve month lease. It's $19.77 for a six month lease and $21.00 4 for a three month lease. So when you look at that and you're saying, wow.

这意味着如果只签3个月租约，每月要多付300到350美元。但用每月多付300美元住3个月，就能避免5万美元的损失。相当于用900美元换5万美元，我觉得这交易相当划算。

That's $300 a month more, $350 a month more if I only sign a three month lease. Yeah. But then you're getting out of a $50,000 mistake by paying $300 a month more for three months. So you're trading $900 for $50,000. I think that's a pretty good deal.

其实只需要一千美元。你不必为了回报而在房屋上做出比一千美元更好的决定，对吧？超过这个数额的部分。我敢打赌，如果你被迫做出仓促决定，因为某些细节与购买条件不符——而这些条件本可以通过更耐心的决策获得——那么你的仓促决定会让你付出比这高得多的代价。

Well, it only has to be a thousand dollars. You don't have to make a thousand dollar better decision on your home for that to pay off. Right? Everything above that. And I bet you that your rush decision will cost you a lot more than that if you're forced into something because there's some nuances that just don't quite work with the purchase that you would be allowed to get if you could make a more patient decision.

谢谢你，明迪。真是太棒了。

So thank you, Mindy. That was awesome.

说得好。关于仓促决定这个话题，我认为这对全国许多房地产市场都极具现实意义。你提到了丹佛地区，而在我所在的里士满，这里也是一个异常火爆的'所谓'房地产市场。

Nice. So rush decision. This is actually highly pertinent, I think, for a lot of real estate markets around the country. I know you said the Denver area. I know here in Richmond, this is a an extraordinarily hot, quote, unquote, real estate market.

我有个朋友两周前挂牌卖房，仅一个周末就安排了80次看房，收到25份报价。所以你看，先把这放一边。对于购房者来说，在如此火热的房地产市场里，当'害怕错过'的心理真实存在时，该做和不该做的事有哪些？

I know a friend of mine who put their house up for sale two weeks ago. They got 80 showings in one weekend. They had 80 showings and 25 offers. So, you know, put that aside. For the home buyer, what are the dos and don'ts in a hot real estate market when when that FOMO is real?

对吧？斯科特，我知道这没涉及具体数据，但对很多人来说，那种'害怕错过'的心理确实存在。如果你深入研究数据，比如租房与买房的对比，可能会突然发现租房看起来更有吸引力，对吧？

Right? I know, Scott, this doesn't go into the numbers, but for a lot of people, that type of FOMO, it's there. You know? And and I think then if you look into the numbers, maybe the rent versus buy, maybe the rent side looks a lot more attractive all of a sudden. Right?

所以对我来说，这再次体现了心理学与数据的交汇点，我很想听听你们对这个问题的看法。

So I I would love this again for me is the intersection of psychology and numbers, and I'd love for for you guys to kinda weigh in on that.

作为一名活跃在这个市场的房产经纪人，我手头有很多客户。我现在非常擅长写报价，因为我就是那24个没抢到你朋友房子的报价者之一。有一次我们出价高出要价2万美元，结果房子以高出要价5.8万美元成交——当时我还觉得我们2万的加价有点高了。这个市场根本不正常。

So I am in this market as an agent, and I have lots of clients. I'm getting real good at writing offers because I'm one of those 24 offers that didn't get your friend's house. And, you know, one of eight offers that lost out to something, we went 20,000 over asking, and it sold for $58,000 over asking. And I thought our $20,000 over asking was a bit high. This market is not a normal market.

我们现在所处的2021年3月、4月、5月的市场状况不会永远持续下去。这不可能。想想看，你朋友刚把房子挂牌就有80组看房。如果你现在正考虑买卖房产，现在可能是挂牌的好时机，特别是那些难卖的'狗屋'或特殊房型。

And what we're currently in in March, April, May 2021 is not going to continue forever. It can't. I mean, think about it. Your friend just put his house on the market and got 80 showings. If you're even thinking about buying or selling a house right now, it could be a really great time to list it, especially if you've got one of those dog houses or, like, hard to sell houses.

房子临着繁忙街道，背靠铁轨，户型怪异，卧室浴室一大堆——但眼下什么房子都能卖出去。

It's on a busy street. It backs up to a train tracks. It's got a weird layout. It's got a weird it's it's a bunch of bedrooms and bathrooms. Everything is selling right now.

没错。房子。你就是这个意思对吧？

Absolutely. House. That's what you're saying. Right?

现在确实是出售奇葩房型的好时机，但绝不是对房子动真感情的时候，因为情感冲动会让你高价接盘。我都能想象听众在收音机前吼'房子值多少钱取决于有人愿意出多少'——我丈夫整天就这套理论。

It is it is a great time to sell a weird house, and it is not the right time to fall in love with the house because then you're making an emotional decision that gets you to overpay significantly for a house. And I hear people yelling at the radio right now, well, a house is worth what anybody will pay for it. I get that from my husband all the time. I'm like

拜托，姐妹，清醒点！

Damn it, girl. Come on.

确实能找到愿意高价接盘的人——虽然我经手的房子从没这种好事。但你要面对的竞争对手，他们的财务心态和约束条件与你完全不同，他们遵循的是另一套游戏规则。你可能在和公司竞标，

Can find somebody to overpay for any house. I mean, they're never the houses that I'm selling, but, you know, you can find somebody to overpay. And you are up against people who are not under the same financial mentality, financial constraints as you are. You're up against people who are playing by a whole different set of rules in many cases. You could be up against a corporation.

可能遇到正在进行1031税务递延交易、有严格时间限制必须尽快购入资产的投资者，或是寻求资金避风港的海外买家。在这疯狂的市场里作为买家，请根据理性分析给出合理报价。如果没抢到，说明缘分未到。好房子永远在后头等着你。

You could be up against an investor who has in the middle of a ten thirty one exchange and has a tight timeline and has to buy something. You could be up against somebody who's investing from overseas who is just trying to find a safe place to park their money. So when you are the buyer in this current ridiculously hot market, make an offer that makes sense to you based on the numbers that you've run, the intelligent, calm decisions that you're making. And if you lose the house, it wasn't meant to be. There's always gonna be a house for somebody to find down the road.

我的成功率是100%。

I have a 100% success rate.

是的。我也认为，如果你在过去180天内成交了10笔交易，你就知道它们会如何出现，并且你愿意因此损失其中几笔。所以，是的，从逻辑上讲我认为你完全正确。决策的心理和逻辑，对吧？或者你用的那个术语是什么来着？

Yeah. I I also think if you have 10 deals that have sold in the last hundred and eighty days, you know how they're gonna come on there and you're be willing to lose a few of them with that. So, yes, there's the logic of I think you're absolutely right. The psychology and the logic of the decision, right? Or what was the term you used?

心理学与心理学的交叉点

Psychology and Intersection of psychology and

用数字说话。真希望我能记住。

By numbers. I wish I could remember.

数字。对。所以我认为这是个很好的框架，但你可以通过提前做功课、了解你认为的报价、并知道市场上总会有下一个机会来更倾向于数字。第二点是，我现在租房。我做了全面分析后决定，即使正在写这本首次购房者指南，现在还是选择租房，因为我不打算在那个房产里住太久。

Numbers. Yeah. So yeah, I think that's a great framework, but you can move more towards the numbers by doing the homework ahead of time, knowing what you think is the offered price, and knowing that there's always gonna be another one that comes on the market next time. And then the second thing is, I rent right now. I conducted this whole analysis, and I decided, even writing this book, first time home buyer, to rent right now because I don't think I'm gonna live in the property that long.

我不愿意承担那种风险，比如硬着头皮买下一套200万美元的四联式住宅之类的。对我来说风险太大了。所以我决定继续租房，因为在当前条件下，租房比买房更符合我现阶段的生活方式需求。

I'm not willing to take on the risk associated with, you know, hacking a situation where I'm buying, like, a $2,000,000 quadplex or something. It's just too much risk for me to assume. So I just decided to pay rent because I think that it's a cheaper way to fund my lifestyle right now than buying in current conditions for what I want right now.

这太棒了。虽然这是给首次购房者的，但它提供了决策逻辑——市场上永远有其他选择，而这个维恩图能帮你梳理思路：最终选择可能和最初设想不同。如果能抛开'首套房就是终身居所'的执念，你就解脱了。正是这个观念在束缚你。如果能以更务实的态度看待，这点非常重要。

That's amazing. I mean, this is for first time home buyers, but it gives you the logic to then if you are in the, there's always going to be an option, but this gives you the Venn diagram to be able to go through those and say, it might not be what I came into this with. And if you can just rip away that idea that your first time home is going be your forever home, that's the part that's screwing you over. That is the part because you already had this idea. If you can then go with a more mercenary, and this is really important.

没人希望你住在地下室。我知道这个领域里有些人通过选择住地下室在经济上取得了显著成就。但如果你正在收听本期节目，这期内容并不是要说服你这么做。它想说服你的是买一个能称之为家的房子，一个你热爱的居所，一个能满足你正在构建的生活中所有需求的住所。但不要把这点与你未来四五十年将要居住或被困住的地方混为一谈。

Nobody wants you to live in a basement. I know there are individuals in this space that have done remarkable financially by choosing to live in a basement. But if you're listening to this episode, this episode is not trying to convince you to do that. It's trying to convince you to get a house that you are a home, a place to live that you love, that meets all of the needs that you want for your life that you're building. But not to conflate that with a place that you're gonna be living or be stuck for the next forty or fifty years.

对吧？如果你能稍微划清这条界限，这就是一个更务实、更接地气的成功之道，可以最小化——你懂的——住房带来的经济负担，甚至可能从盈利角度来考量。好了各位，强烈推荐这本书。如果你有需要照顾的人、朋友或家人，或者有人即将经历这个心理过程，而你想确保这对他们成为经济上的祝福而非拖累或诅咒，这本书将极大加速他们的学习进程。

Right? If you can just make that slight line of delineation, this is a much more practical and grounded approach to crushing it and either minimizing, you know, the financial burden of his home or maybe even looking at it from a place some point of profit. Alright, everyone. Highly recommend this book. It's gonna be valuable for you if you have a dependent or a friend or family member, someone that's gonna be going through this mental process and you want to make sure they this becomes a financial blessing and not a financial anchor or curse, this book will speed up their learning process very, very quickly.

这本书有趣、引人入胜且实用。说实话，在人生这个早期阶段，除了学生贷款债务外，这可能是首次购房者做出的最重要的财务决策。所以值得花点时间思考。想了解更多或购买，请访问biggerpockets.com/fthb。

It's fun, it's engaging, it's practical, and honestly, this early on in life, this is maybe other than your student loan debt. This is the biggest financial decision that a first time home buyer person that's in that place is making. So it's worth just spending a little bit of time thinking about it. For more information or pick up your copy, just go to biggerpockets.com/fthb. That's biggerpockets.com/fthb.

米妮，非常感谢你今天参加我们的节目。

And Minnie, thank you so much for joining us on the show today.

谢谢邀请，非常愉快。

Thanks for having us. Was a lot of fun.

能和你们交流真是太兴奋了，这次对话太棒了，谢谢。

I'm so excited to talk to you guys. This was excellent. Thank you.

确实。布拉德，我认为作为财务自由社区的一员，当我们审视数据时，大多数人都会有点'锚定效应'来保护自己不受'房产是绝佳投资'这种观念影响。我们确实倾向于更平衡地看待——我们需要一个美好的居住地，这涉及很多变量，但不一定将其视为绝佳投资，更不是唯一投资。当然这里观点各异，我不是在给任何人贴标签，但我认为最早期的版本中，我们可能得到梦幻住宅，但不必陷入节目开头讨论的那些早期陷阱。不过我得说，包括我在内，很少有人拥有像这本书里提出的思维框架——若有这个框架，我本可以制定出更多退出策略。

Absolutely. You know, Brad, I think being a part of the financial independence community and looking at the numbers, most of us kind of we have a little bit of an anchor to protect ourselves against this idea that, you know, home is a great investment. We we do tend to look at there's a little bit more balance, you know, we need a great place to live, and that has a lot of different variables, but we don't think about it as, you know, necessarily a great investment or certainly not as our only investment. Now there's people on all spectrums here, I'm not putting anybody in a box, but I just think that, you know, the earliest version of that, we might get a fantastic home, but we're not necessarily just locked into some of those early pitfalls that we discussed at the beginning of the episode. But I would say that very few people, myself included, have the framework that they have in this book, and I would imagine that with that framework, I would have so many more exit strategies.

如果当初读过这本书的内容，我在考虑如何从首套房过渡到终身住宅时就会更有信心。这实际上会为我的财务规划增添助力。

I would have so much more confidence about how, you know, when I leave that first home to maybe go get my forever home. Like, I would it would actually be adding to my financial game plan going forward if I'd had the content that was in this book.

没错，你说到点子上了。这个框架正好印证了我之前提到的扩大认知范围的观点。明白这些因素的存在及其重要性很关键。

Yeah. I think you're spot on there. I think that framework that that kinda ties into what I was saying with that increased zone of awareness. Right? Just having the comprehension that these factors, they are out there, and they matter.

对吧？这不仅是财务独立运动的缩影，更说明你常听到的观点未必是最终答案。可能还存在比盲目跟风更优化的方式——比如‘买房就是美国梦’这种说法。

Right? And it's not just this is the whole financial independence movement in a microcosm, right, which is what you've always heard isn't necessarily the end of the story. Right? And there might be a more optimized way to do it than to just follow blindly. Oh, buying a home is the American dream.

‘买房是你最大的投资’？在某些个案中可能成立，比如明迪。她用高度优化的方式操作，和卡尔通过这套刻意决策赚了数十万。但多数人对待住房决策时都缺乏这种刻意性。

Buying a home is your biggest investment. Right? That may be true in certain small instances, like Mindy, for instance. Mindy does this in a very optimized way, and Mindy and Carl have undoubtedly made many hundreds of thousands of dollars from this very intentional set of decisions. Most of us are not making very intentional decisions when it comes to the home we live in.

这类书的价值在于拓展认知边界——不是老生常谈，而是帮你建立应该考虑甚至能够考虑的选项框架。有了选项，就能构建成功的心智模型。说穿了，你最终可能做出和原先相同的决定，这没问题。就像我们常说的‘选个派就好’。

And I think a book like this just opens up that zone of awareness, not to sound trite and repeat it, but to what you should be considering, what you even can consider as options. And when you have options, then it allows you to have that mental framework to succeed. Plain and simple. You might ultimately make the same decision you were going to, and that's fine. Just like we always say here, choose a pie.

我不在乎你最终做什么决定，只在乎你是否经过思考且具有意图性。这本书能培养这种决策意识，提供所需的工具箱。简而言之，这本书不可或缺。

I don't care what decision you ultimately make. I just care that you think about it and that you're intentional. And this book allows for that intentionality. It gives you the toolbox you need. So plain and simple, this book is essential.

好了朋友们，访问biggerpockets.com/fthb获取更多书籍信息。篝火已备好，朋友们。下次我们将继续探索少有人走的路，敬请期待。

Alright, my friends. Go to biggerpockets.com/fthb for more information on that book. The fire is ready, my friends. We'll see you next time as we continue to go down the road less traveled.

如果本期节目对您有所帮助，请别忘了订阅。若想帮忙传播，请给我们五星好评并向朋友推荐。您可以在苹果播客、Google Podcasts、Spotify等任何播客平台找到我们。同时别忘了收听我们的其他节目，比如与Jillian Johnsrude合作的《每日勇气》，以及Alan Dalmigan主持的《叛逆创业者》。如需免费获取开启财务自由的迷你课程，请访问chooseify.com/challenge。

If this episode was helpful to you, don't forget to subscribe. If you wanna help spread the word, please give us a five star review and tell your friends about us. We can be found on Apple, Google Podcasts, Spotify, and anywhere you listen to podcasts. While you're there, don't forget to check out our other shows like Everyday Courage with Jillian Johnsrude and Rebel Entrepreneur with Alan Dalmigan. If you would like a free bite sized course to jump start your financial independence, check out chooseify.com/challenge.

《Chooseify》由Andrew Mendonso和Zachary Tan制作，隶属于Chooseify传媒公司。网站由Annie Shealy管理，团队成员包括William McVeigh、MK Williams、Melissa Lagerquist、Liz Kessler、Steven Hetdig、Kelly Black和Jennifer Mock。Ed T担任我们的首席执行官。感谢您的收听。

Chooseify is produced by Andrew Mendonso and Zachary Tan and is a production of Chooseify Media Incorporated. Chooseify.com is managed by Annie Shealy with William McVeigh, MK Williams, Melissa Lagerquist, Liz Kessler, Steven Hetdig, Kelly Black, and Jennifer Mock. And Ed T is our CEO. Thanks for listening.