CD173：约翰·阿诺德 - TEN31季度市场动态更新

但我也知道有很多财务手段可以在后台操作来规避这个问题。

But I also know there are a lot of, like, goofy accounting tricks you can use on the back end to kinda get around that.

而且说到底，我觉得特朗普根本不在乎预算办公室那些书呆子怎么说。

And, also, at the end of the day, I think Trump doesn't really care what the c what some nerd at the CDO says.

他只关心如何塑造这样的叙事：既没有新增借贷，也没有加税或削减项目，却成功增持了比特币。

I think he cares about the narrative of, like, I didn't have to do any new borrowing, no new taxes, no programs were cut, and I was able to go acquire Bitcoin.

就像那些看衰特别提款权的人一样，如果你认为全球最贪婪、最利己的政府机构——包括所有情报部门——会不想为了战略用途囤积比特币（假设我们对比特币的认知是正确的），那说明你对比特币的看涨程度还远远不够。

So just like for all people fading the SBR and thinking that's not gonna happen, I think you're not bullish enough on Bitcoin to if you think that the biggest, greediest, most self interested government actors in the world, all the spooks in the world wouldn't want to acquire Bitcoin, for their own strategic use, assuming that we're we're right about what it is.

你觉得他们不会想以某种有意义的方式参与其中，无论他们是否立即宣布。

And you think they wouldn't wanna be involved in it in some, like, meaningful way, whether they announce it or not immediately.

如果你认为这种肮脏手段不会被用来以预算中立的方式获取比特币，那说明你对比特币还不够乐观。

I think you're not bullish enough on Bitcoin if you think that dirty tricks like this won't be used to, to go acquire Bitcoin, in budget neutral ways.

所以在我看来，如果这真的发生，这才是真正可能意味着的结果。

So that's to me, that's, like, the real upshot for if this happens, what it could mean.

首先我看到Zelle刚给我们转了5,555套。

I first of all, saw Zelle just zapped us 5,555 sets.

他说，美联储还废除了《银行保密法》。

He says, and the Fed repeal the Bank Secrecy Act.

我完全同意。

I couldn't agree more.

感谢你的支持。

Thank you for your support.

好建议。

Great advice.

好建议。

Great advice.

我是说，周一Mallers——Strike的创始人，10:31是Strike最大且引以为豪的投资者。

I mean, so Mallers on Monday, founder of Strike, 10:31 is the largest and proudly the largest investor in Strike.

他有个理论，认为他们还应该发布比特币审计报告。

He had a theory that, they were supposed to release a Bitcoin audit as well.

我们基本上通过《信息自由法》请求获取了一些信息，这些愤怒情绪显示了一小部分比特币的情况。

And we basically got little bit of information through a FOIA request, a Freedom of Information request through the rage that showed a smaller subset of Bitcoin.

他的理论是他们尚未公布比特币审计结果，并且对SBR保持沉默，是因为他们实际持有的比特币远少于他们意识到的数量。

And his theory is that they haven't released the Bitcoin audit yet, and they've been pretty quiet about the SBR because they have way less Bitcoin than they realize.

他们不希望这一信息泄露，因为Mallers推测他们感到尴尬，这很可能就是部分原因。

And they don't want that information to get out because one well, Mallers hypothesized that they were embarrassed, which is definitely probably part of it.

这里面涉及很多自尊心问题。

There's a lot of egos at play.

但更重要的是，如果你正在试图积累比特币，你不会希望价格失控上涨——这种感受我们都非常熟悉。

But even more importantly, you don't want the price to run away from you if you're trying to accumulate, which we all know that feeling quite well.

是啊。

Yeah.

完全同意。

Totally.

另外还有一点就是，关于SBR的事情，我们早就说过，我认为政府没有理由在完全准备好之前明确透露他们在做什么。

That's the other thing too is, like, I, with the SBR stuff, I think we've said this for a while, but, like, I don't think we have no reason or the government has no reason to make it clear, like, what they're doing with this until they're, like, fully sized.

对吧？

Right?

因为一旦有任何实质性的支持比特币的举动，比如积极购买更多比特币，那就会立即引发市场剧烈波动。

Just because the second that there's, like, any kind of actual endorsement of Bitcoin, like, of buying more Bitcoin actively, like, I mean, who that there's your omega candle.

对不对？

Right?

没错。

Yeah.

市场流动性就会枯竭。

You Market just dries up.

是啊。

Yeah.

砰。

Boom.

绝对。

Absolutely.

所以我认为你需要完全定位好，如果你是政府，在任何公开承认SBR之前。

So you need to be I think you need to be fully positioned, if you're if you're the government before you in any way publicly acknowledge an SBR.

特别是，就这样。

Especially And just yeah.

继续。

Go on.

尤其是如果你是从困境开始的。

Especially if you're starting from a hole.

就像，我只是指出，比如说他们只有预期的四分之一或一半，他们需要付出更多努力才能达到目标。

Like like, I just pointing out, like, let let's say they have, like, a fourth of what they thought or half of what they thought or whatever, and, like, they've gotta, you know, do that much more to get to where they wanna get to.

就像，你肯定不想告诉人们任何关于当前持仓的信息。

Like, yeah, like, you definitely don't wanna tell people anything about, you know, current holdings.

这对每个主要参与者都适用。

And this goes for every major player.

我们对此有先例可循。

Like, we have we have precedents for this.

我是说，不丹政府一直在悄悄增持，按他们的体量来说规模不小。

I mean, the government of Bhutan was quietly stacking in size for their size.

我们之所以发现，唯一的原因是因为他们在Celsius破产事件中被曝光了。

And the only reason we found out was because they got doxed in the Celsius bankruptcy.

他们并没有公开告诉人们说'嘿，我们正试图获取大量比特币'，因为那样做毫无意义。

Like, they didn't publicly tell people like, yo, we're trying to get a lot of Bitcoin, because that just wouldn't make any sense.

对他们来说这样做是反直觉的。

That's counterintuitive for them to do that.

对。

Yep.

没错。

Yeah.

毫无疑问。

No doubt.

所以我不认为我们会得到那种萨尔瓦多式的mintle.space仪表盘——那种每天展示我们获取比特币情况的完全透明、让所有人都知道我们在做什么的系统。

So I I don't think we're gonna get, like, you know, we're not gonna get the El Salvador type mintle dot space dashboard of, like, here's the the Bitcoin that we're requiring every day, full transparency, gonna keep everyone in the loop on what we're doing with this.

对吧？

Right?

这实在是...

It's it's so

完全是另一回事。

a different game.

我是说，如果在质押完成后能那样就太好了。

I mean, it'd be nice if we got that after the stacking happens.

我是说...

I mean

是啊。

Yeah.

我很欣赏——我是说，我认为萨尔瓦多在引领这方面没有得到足够的认可。

I love the, I'm hope I mean, I I think El Salvador doesn't get enough credit for leading the way on that.

就公开股票而言，Meta Planet可能也没有因此获得应有的赞誉。

In terms of public stocks, you know, Meta Planet also probably doesn't get enough credit for that.

很高兴看到Jack的新创企业XXI也选择了这条路。

It's great to see Jack's new venture, XXI, going that route as well.

显然，我们非常喜欢MEMPUL项目。

Obviously, we love the MEMPUL project.

我们是MEMPUL领域最大的投资者和独家基金支持者。

We are the largest investor, exclusive fund in in supporting MEMPUL space.

主要参与者是我们和一些天使投资人。

It's busy us and a few angels.

而且我认为它正是开源项目的一个绝佳典范。

And I also think it's just a it's a great poster child for a project that is that is open source.

你可以自己运行它。

You can run it yourself.

你可以在家运行，同时他们还有可持续的商业模式。

You can run it at home, but they also have a sustainable business model.

盈利性开源项目是一个值得关注的趋势，这让我非常兴奋。

Profitable open source projects is is a trend to watch and something that I'm very excited about.

我看到SoapMiner给我们发送了21,000套设备。

I see SoapMiner zapped us 21,000 sets.

谢谢您的支持，先生。

Thank you for your support, sir.

我在发布这条公告时，有人评论询问1031公司何时会投资SoapMiner。

There was some commentary in my announcement post of this asking when ten thirty one was gonna invest in SoapMiner.

我告诉大家，他家的香皂在我们所有浴室里都能找到。

I let everyone know that his bars are in all of our showers.

我们的家人都依赖这些产品。

Our families rely on them.

他说——在我们深入讨论更多实际的比特币话题之前，这一切现在都与比特币相关，因为比特币已成为全球宏观经济的温度计。

He's saying so I just before we get to more to actual Bitcoin stuff, this is all related to Bitcoin now that Bitcoin is the macro thermometer of the world.

他提到了万亿美元硬币的构想。

He mentions the trillion dollar coin idea.

这是自从我成为比特币爱好者以来就一直关注的事情。

This is something that I've been ever since I became a Bitcoiner.

十多年来，我一直对万亿美元硬币的概念着迷。

So over a decade, I've been fascinated by the trillion dollar coin concept.

他们可以直接铸造万亿美元硬币并用它来购买比特币。

They could just mint the trillion dollar coin and buy Bitcoin with it.

这样不就预算中性了吗？

Wouldn't that be budget neutral?

我认为，从技术层面来说，

I think, again, technically,

从CBO（国会预算办公室）的角度看，这并不会实现预算中性。

like, a CBO perspective, it wouldn't be.

但是，嗯，我...对。

But, like, I yeah.

我是说，归根结底，他们完全能够——也必将——以任何法律上说得过去的方式凑足他们需要的数字，并通过政治手段实现他们既定的目标。

I I I mean, at the end of the day, they're they can and will make up the numbers they need to make up in whatever fashion is, like, legally palatable and pull it and that they can sell politically to accomplish, like, the objectives that they that they have.

对吧？

Right?

所以没错，我们就像印钞机一样。

So, yes, we're like the printing press.

差不多吧。

Like yeah.

说正经的，整个逻辑就是财政部可以随意铸造任何面值的硬币，然后我们就能凭空创造价值。

Jokes aside jokes aside, so, like, the whole idea is that, I guess, the treasury can basically just mint any coin they want, and then we just have, like, value out of thin air.

但当前症结在于：他们正试图平衡一个螯合型财政困境——无论采取什么措施，长期利率曲线都在失控飙升。

But the problem is right now is what they're trying to balance is a mandibles type treasury situation where the long end of the curve is running away from them regardless of what they do.

人们正在质疑美国政府的偿付责任——是否偿还债务、以及通胀率会达到什么水平。

People are questioning the responsibility of the US government and whether or not we're going to pay back our debts and what inflation rate that happens at.

在十年周期内，这期间完全可能爆发严重通胀。

In a ten year timeline, a lot of inflation could happen in that period of time.

这种操作将彻底摧毁国债市场。

So that kind of move would just absolutely destroy the treasury market.

是啊。

Yeah.

毫无疑问。

For sure.

我是说，你看。

And, I mean, look.

这就像，黄金重估理念也面临同样的问题，因为实际上，你知道，外面有数万亿美元的新增储备会涌入系统。

It's like it's it's a it's a relevant question for, like, the gold revaluation idea too, because you've effectively like, there's a there's, you know, trillion dollars of, like, newly created reserves out there, that will flow into into the system.

而且很可能会因此产生价格通胀效应，具体取决于，我猜，你知道，它首先冲击经济的哪个部分。

And there will be, like, very likely, a price inflationary impact from that as well, like, depending on, I guess, you know, where it hits first, in the economy.

但我也认为，这某种程度上已成定局了。

But I also think, like, that's kind of baked into the cake now.

我的意思是，未来十年我们不太可能看到那种情况。

Like, I just don't really think we're likely to see a deck the like, the next decade.

我们不需要经历魏玛式恶性通胀就能达到，你知道，5%左右的通胀率，七十年代那种通胀水平——尤其是考虑到，你知道，劳工统计局负责人上周刚被解职，而CPI本质上已是全球最受操纵的指标。

Like, we don't have to go into, like, Weimar hyperinflation for you know, to have, like, you know, 5% type inflation, seventies like inflation, especially given, you know, we just saw the b l the head of the BLS fired last week, and we already know CPI is a basically, the most manipulated metric, you know, on the planet.

所以他们仍在编造数据，发布符合他们目标的信息。

So they're not past making up the numbers and putting out the data that they want to, accomplish their objectives.

所以，我认为无论通过万亿硬币计划还是黄金重估，他们实际上都需要未来至少十年保持实际负利率，才能使债务与GDP比例回到合理区间。

So, yeah, I mean, I'm I I think either way, like, whether it's trillion dollar coin, whether it's gold revaluation, I I think they actually need essentially negative real rates now for the next, like, ten years at least, to get debt to GDP back into some kind of reasonable, reasonable range.

因此，你或许应该预期并准备迎接中等偏上的通胀率，无论CPI还是真实指标。

And so, like, yeah, you should probably plan for and expect, you know, something like mid single digit plus, inflation, whether it's CPI or a a real metric.

是啊。

Yeah.

但问题是，呃...

But, I mean, the quest the yeah.

但问题在于他们能否真正实现。

But the question is if they could actually pull it off.

我其实认为那是不可能的。

I don't actually think that's possible.

你觉得哪部分不可能？

Which piece do you think is not possible?

我是说，我不认为他们有可能控制住国债市场。

I I mean, I don't I don't think it's possible for them to get the treasury market under control.

我觉得他们正在失去对收益率的控制。

I I think they're they're losing control of of of yields.

而且我认为，无论美联储做什么，我们都会看到长期利率开始飙升。

And I think they're they're I I think we see rates start to run on the long side regardless of what the Fed does.

我们唯一能做的实际应对就是顺势而为，让通胀与之并行升温。

And the only real response we can have is to actually kind of lean into it and, and, you know, let inflation run hot alongside of it.

我们到底该怎么应对这种情况？

Like, how do we even handle that?

我认为你低估了美联储在必要时可能采取的激进手段。

I think I think you underestimate how aggressive the Fed can be if it needs to.

如果他们...如果掌权者能按他们的意愿行事，如果有像特朗普的谄媚者那样的党派人士参与，所有人都会站队。

If they if it if they have the guy in charge to do what they wanna do, if they have, like, the Trump sycophant, like, partisan involved, everyone's on everyone's on sides.

这周有些相关新闻，我们或许也可以聊聊。

Some news about that this week that we can maybe talk about as well.

我觉得如果特朗普提名自己当美联储主席的话...

I think if if Trump nominates himself as FedSec Fed chair.

是啊。

Yeah.

是啊。

Yeah.

我不会...前几天有人这么说，你知道，就是那种老派的人试图宣称，基本上就是美国金融体系在金融危机后要完蛋了。

I wouldn't, somebody somebody was saying that the other day, like, you know, there were some, like, like, boomer type who was trying to call, like, the the end of, basically, the end of the American financial system after, GFC in a way.

他觉得，那个就是终结了。

Like, he thought that, like, that that was it.

觉得那就是大崩溃，一切都将崩塌。

And that was the big one, and it was all going down.

然后他说，好吧我错了，因为我根本没想到美联储会为此如此扩张资产负债表。

And he was like, well, I was wrong because I just I never imagined how much the Fed would expand their balance sheet in response to that.

我完全没料到他们会这么激进。

Like, I just had no idea that they would be so aggressive.

这是在某个播客上说的。

And, this was, on a podcast.

我记不清是谁在讨论，但另一个人对他说：那你现在就该开始想象这种可能了。

I can't remember who who were the people were that were talking, but the other guy was said to him, like, well, you should start imagining it.

对吧？

Right?

这根本不需要理由。

Like, there's there's no reason.

这些数字都是人为编造的，他们对此有单方面的控制权。

Like, it's all it's all completely made up numbers and they have, you know, unilateral control over it.

资产负债表完全有可能扩大十倍来维持必要的收益率水平。

Like, the there's no reason the balance sheet can't expand by an order of magnitude to keep yields where they need to be.

释放压力的阀门只会是通货膨胀，特别是如果你不是资产所有者，不幸的是，普通人只能默默承受。

The the release valve is just gonna be inflation and especially, like, if you're not an asset owner, like, unfortunately, like, the the regular person just takes it on the chin.

就像那些无法从金融压制中获益的人，在资产方面，我们确实有长期这样做的历史。

Like the person who isn't benefiting from, you know, the financial repression, on the asset side, like, yeah, we, you know, we have a long history of doing that.

所以你真正需要确保的是这些人不会公开反抗，或者投票选上那个叫什么名字的人？

And so all you really need is to make sure those people don't, like, openly revolt, or, you know, vote in, what's his name?

来自纽约的蒙达尼来管理国家，然后在政策上完全走向另一个方向。

Mondani from from New York to to run the country and completely, you know, go the other way on policy.

如果你能让船保持相对稳定，我认为人们会默默承受很多。

Like, if you can keep the boat reasonably steady, like, people will kinda take, I think people will take a lot on the chin.

不幸的是，人们会逆来顺受很多。

People will take a lot lying down, unfortunately.

我想我们五年前就见识过了。

I think we saw that five years ago.

这也是一种隐性税收。

It was also, like, it's a hidden tax.

对吧？

Right?

我的意思是，这也是关税如此有效的原因。

I mean, that's also why the tariffs are so effective.

有哪位总统上任后——至少现代总统中没人能做到——在没人注意的情况下大幅提高税收吗？

Like, has any president ever come into office and just at least no modern presidents come into office and effectively raise taxes significantly with no one batting an eye?

没错。

Right.

是的。

Yeah.

我还好。

I okay.

我们继续下一个话题吧。

Let's let's move on to the next topic.

我想谈谈，我想谈谈MSTR战略的现状，特别是他们偏爱的股票。

I wanna talk about I wanna talk about current state of MSTR of strategy, specifically, their preferred equities.

他们似乎终于附加了一个比特币商业模式，而且是在金融化这一侧。

They finally seem to have bolted on a Bitcoin business model, and it's on this financialization side.

他们现在有四支优先股。

They have four preferred equities now.

最新的一支是STRC。

The most recent one is STRC.

你怎么看？

What are your thoughts?

首先，我要向所有定期观看和收听这档播客的观众和听众道歉，你们本期待高价值自由内容，却被迫听了半小时黄金和现在的MSTR讨论。

Well, first of all, I apologize to all the regular viewers and listeners of this podcast that tune in for high signal freedom content and have been subjected to half an hour of of gold and now MSTR discussion.

为此我非常抱歉。

So I'm very sorry for that.

但无论如何，无论你是否喜欢MicroStrategy，无论你是否持有股票，无论你是否拥有MSTR，无论你认为Sailor是否可疑，现实是他们资产负债表上有超过60万枚比特币。

But, no, like, it's either way, like, whether you like MicroStrategy, whether you, you know, own equities or not, whether you own MSTR or not, whether you think Sailor is a spook or not, the reality is they've got over 600,000 Bitcoin on balance sheet.

他们正在成为全球最大的上市公司之一。

They're becoming one of the biggest publicly traded companies in the world.

正如奥德尔一开始所说，无论好坏，他确实是比特币最坚定的倡导者和公众代言人之一。

He is, as Odell said at the beginning, you know, one of, for better or worse, one of Bitcoin's biggest kinda advocates and public spokespeople.

所以，这与比特币的整体市场动态息息相关，你知道的，他们的所作所为。

So, you know, it is relevant to kinda general market dynamics for Bitcoin, You know, what they what they do.

你不能忽视这一点。

You can't ignore it.

你必须关注它。

You have to pay attention to it.

是的。

Yeah.

不管下一个熊市发生什么，我要说的是，我认为他不太可能成为被迫抛售者。

And and regardless of what happens in the next bear market, I I will just put out there that I think it's unlikely that he'll be a forced seller.

你完全可以预料到，大多数恐惧、不确定性和怀疑都会暗示他将被迫抛售，无论他是否真的卖出，因为我们从未在公开实体中见过如此庞大的持仓量。

You can absolutely guarantee that the majority of FUD will be the implication that he's gonna be a forced seller regardless of him selling or not because we've never had a stack that large in a public facing entity.

中本聪消失是有原因的。

There's a reason why Satoshi disappeared.

而现在我们有了一个中本聪级别的持仓量，却带着董事会、财报电话会议这些玩意儿。

And now we have a Satoshi level stack, with with a board and earnings calls and shit.

没错。

Yep.

不。

No.

毫无疑问。

No doubt.

嗯。

Yeah.

我想先说清楚几件事，我可能会得罪两边的人——那些讨厌MSTR的人和MSTR的狂热粉丝，至少如果他们在听这个的少数人中的话，可能会两边都不讨好。

I think to to so to get a couple things out out of the way, I'm gonna I probably piss off, like, ever both people who, you know, hate MSTR and all the MSTR fanboys, at least for, like, you know, if they're among the the dozen people listening to this, you know, maybe piss piss off both sides.

但我得声明，我自己也持有少量MSTR头寸，因为实在忍不住。

But I disclosure, I have a very small MSTR position myself, because I couldn't help myself.

所以我也是个小股东，只是持股不多。

So I am a a common shareholder, in a in a small way.

另外，我完全同意Matt说的每句话，附议。

And, also, I agree with everything Matt said cosign.

我认为关于'Sailor要爆雷'的恐惧、不确定性和怀疑（FUD），会成为引发下一轮熊市的催化剂。

I think that the the FUD around, like, Sailor's gonna blow up, and that's gonna be the catalyst for the next bear market.

你知道，这种观点很中庸，我觉得应该直接看数据。

Like, you know, it's a it's a very, like, mid curve take, and I think you should just look at the numbers.

我认为他极不可能被迫抛售，除非你觉得我们将进入一个持续多年、跌幅高达80%的极端残酷熊市——虽然有可能，但显然不在我的基本预测范围内。

He I think he's extremely unlikely to become a forced seller unless you think we're heading into, like, a multiyear extremely, extremely rough, like 80% drawdown type bear market, which is possible, but I you know, it's certainly not my base case.

话说回来，这些都不意味着持有普通股就一定比持有比特币更明智。

All that said, none of that suggests that it's a good idea necessarily to hold the common stock over Bitcoin.

比如，你持有MSTR很可能跑不赢比特币。

Like, you very well may not outperform Bitcoin by holding MSTR.

我觉得这完全是个开放性问题。

Think it's very much an open question.

嗯，我认为这正是你需要考虑的计算。

Well, I mean, I think that's the calculation that you have to be thinking.

你这是在承担额外的风险。

You're you're taking on additional risk.

你放弃了托管权，而不是自我托管比特币。

You're giving up custody, Instead of self custody Bitcoin.

自我托管的比特币是顶级资产。

Self custody Bitcoin is the apex asset.

对吧？

Right?

是的。

Yep.

没有其他资产具备比特币本身的这些特性。

There's no other asset that has the properties itself.

自我托管的比特币就是超能力。

Self custody Bitcoin is the superpower.

所以你为了试图跑赢比特币，正在增加额外风险。

So you're adding on additional risk in an attempt to outperform Bitcoin.

我是说，我对优先股发行最感兴趣。

I mean, I'm most fascinated by the preferred equity offerings.

我猜只有一小部分人真正理解比特币。

Guess I think like there's a small subset of people that understand Bitcoin.

只有一小部分人理解他试图通过MSTR做什么。

There's a small subset of people that understand what he's trying to do with MSTR.

能同时理解这两者的人就更少了。

There's even a smaller subset that understands both.

我是说，即使是优先股，就像为这次对话做铺垫一样，我认为他不会在长期熊市中成为被迫抛售者的部分原因在于，他突然间拥有了可以动用的优先股，而不必出售比特币或普通股，避免陷入那种恶性循环的局面。

And I mean, even the preferred equity, just like to set up this conversation, like, part of the reason I think he won't be a foreseller even in a long bear market is because all of a sudden he has the preferred equities that he can tap instead of instead of selling Bitcoin or selling common in, a death spiral type of situation.

是的。

Yeah.

我觉得，这绝对是事实。

I think I think that's that's definitely true.

我的意思是，唯一可能迫使他成为被迫抛售者的，就是那些仍在资产负债表上的可转债。

I mean, the the only thing that would really, like, make him a, you know, a forced seller would be, you know, the the converts that are still on the balance sheet.

即便如此，考虑到资金如此充裕，你必须相信只有真正糟糕、漫长到极点的比特币熊市才会让他走到那一步。

And even then, like, there's so much capital that you you have to believe truly awful, you know, a truly awful and long Bitcoin bear market, you would be coming.

即使那样，他很可能仍有选择不必出售比特币。

And even then, he'd still have options to probably not sell Bitcoin.

在这种情况下，你可能不想当股东，但确实如此。

You might not wanna be a shareholder in that case, but Right.

两件事可以同时成立。

Two two things can be true.

要知道，买入MSTR普通股不是个好主意，但同时Sailor也不会成为被迫抛售者。

You know, buying MSTR common is not a good idea, and, also, you know, Sailor's not gonna be a foreseller.

话虽如此，我确实认为优先股的走势非常值得关注。

All that said, I do think the the prefs have been really interesting to see play out.

我过去对整个优先股策略相当悲观，直到大概上周才有所改观。

I have been, I'll say, pretty bearish on the entire pref strategy, for up until literally probably, like, this last week.

真的吗？

Really?

实际上，我仍然对所有非STRC优先股、非弹性优先股持看跌态度，因为，

And and I still remain actually a a bear on all of the non STRC prefs, the non stretch prefs because,

你知道的，就是STRF、STRK、STTRK这些。

you know, the STRF, STRK, STTRK.

STRF。

STRF.

对。

Yeah.

但这并不一定意味着它们在表现上会看跌。

And not necessarily bearish in terms of, like, how those will perform.

它们可能会带来相当不错的回报率。

Like, they they may be, you know, reasonably good reasonably good rate of return.

这取决于你的基准是什么。

It depends, like, know, what your benchmark is.

我不认为这一定会成为一笔糟糕的交易或糟糕的投资。

You know, I don't I don't necessarily think that that's, like, gonna be a a horrible, you know, trade a horrible investment.

对此我没什么特别要说的。

No real call there.

对我来说更重要的是，从MSTR普通股的角度看，他的说辞一直是'这是我们进军固定收益领域的下一步'。

The bigger thing to me is as, from the perspective of MSTR common, his narrative with these has been, well, this is our, like, our next move into fixed income.

他不断试图将这些包装成'我们正在进军固定收益市场'。

Like, he keeps trying to frame these as, like, we're attacking the fixed income market.

债券市场有大约100万亿美元的资本规模。

There's, like, a $100,000,000,000,000 of capital that's in bonds.

而且，你知道，他们实际上无法接触比特币。

And, you know, they they can't really access Bitcoin.

我们正在提供一些符合他们权限范围、可供购买的东西。

Well, we're giving them something that, you know, that they can buy that falls in their mandate.

我只是觉得，这完全不对。

And I just think, like, that's it's just wrong.

这些偏好股STRK、STRD和STRF，实际上并未触及固定收益买家群体的实质性需求。

Like, that's just not the the prefs, STRK, STRD, and STRF, like, don't really address any meaningful amount of, like, the of fixed income buyers.

首先，从名称上就能看出来。

Because first of all, it's right in the name.

这不是固定收益产品。

It's not fixed income.

明白吗？

Okay?

他实际上可以随时暂停分红发放。

Like, he he can he can at will essentially suspend the dividends.

我知道不同条款对是否累计分红有不同规定。

I know there are different conditions on, like, which ones are cumulative and which ones are not.

我记不清这个层级里具体哪类是哪类了。

I I can't remember which is which are which, within that stack.

它们是

They are

据我所见他可以暂停STRF的分红。

seen suspend he can suspend STRF, I think.

也许是对的。

Maybe that's right.

虽然我

Although I

认为STRK是拥有认购期权的那一个。

think STRK is the one that has the call option.

对吧？

Right?

是的。

Yeah.

那是

That's

对的。

right.

所以那个可以转换成，是的。

So that one, you can convert into Yeah.

MSTR。

MSTR.

所以它有一些额外的上涨空间。

So it has it has some upside addition.

但STRF，我相信是累积的，他不能暂停它们。

But STRF, I believe, is cumulative, and he can't suspend them.

就像，它们实际上是永续的。

Like, they're actually it's actually perpetual.

所以我以为他状态不错，所以这是另一个问题。

So I thought he still well, so that's the other issue.

但我以为他还有STRF，有一定的回旋余地和灵活性。

But I thought he still had an STRF, some leeway and flexibility.

我必须

I have to

回来看看。

come back to look.

他很可能有。

He probably does.

不过确实。

But yeah.

但另一个事实是他们是罪犯。

But the other piece is the fact that they're perps.

这两点，我认为，会立即将这些工具排除在绝大多数机构固定收益资本的能力范围和可及性之外。

Both of those things, I think, take it like take, these instruments immediately out of outside the wheelhouse and the addressability of all of the vast majority of, like, institutional fixed income capital that is out there.

因为，这些人承销的债券数学基础仍然是固定收益支付。

Because, like, bond math in general that these guys are underwriting on is is based on, again, fixed income payments.

比如，如果你暂停支付利息，那你就违约了。

Like, you know, if you if you if you suspend payments on interest, like, okay, you're in default.

我们会把你告上法庭。

Like, we're taking you to court.

这就变成了另一回事。

Like, that's that becomes its its own, its own thing.

所以这个计算是基于实际的固定支付和一个到期日。

So the math is based on actual, fixed payments and a and a maturity date.

对吧？

Right?

而且你会在一个明确的到期日收回本金。

And that you're going to get principal back specifically on, like, a defined maturity date.

任何不具备这些特征的产品，我认为实际上对于普通债券投资者来说，在任何大型机构中都很难购买甚至考虑。

And anything that doesn't fall that does not have those features is, I I think, realistically, like, very, very difficult for your average, like, bond investor at any, like, large shop to buy or even look at.

当然，另一个因素是这些机构大多需要信用评级机构对产品进行评级。

And, of course, they also the other piece is, like, most of these guys need, you know, something to be rated and, from a credit, rating agency.

Saylor曾提到试图为这些产品获取评级，也许这会发生。

And, you know, Saylor has talked about trying to get these things rated, and maybe that'll happen.

但我认为这可能是个漫长的过程，因为穆迪、惠誉和标普等机构目前对这类产品基本没有认真考虑的兴趣。

But I think that's probably a long slog because there's fair I think there's still very little appetite among, you know, your Moody's and Fitch and S and P institutions to look at anything like this in a serious way.

所以你没有评级。

So you don't have the ratings.

你也没有一个真正类似加蓬债券的工具。

You don't have an instrument that really, like, looks actually like Gabon.

虽然它确实比普通股更相似，但我认为对绝大多数债券和固定收益配置者来说仍不是个好产品。

Like, it's it's more certainly more similar than, like, common equity, but, it's, it's still, I I think, not really a a good product for the vast majority of allocators out there in bonds and fixed income.

从他们目前的接受程度你就能看出来。

And I think you can kinda see that with, like, the level of uptake that they've had so far.

你知道，它们并没有像预期那样热销。

You know, they they haven't really, like, flown off the shelf in the way that you They're

也是全新的。

also brand new.

不。

No.

哦，完全同意。

Oh, totally.

对。

Yeah.

不过，这正好可以很好地过渡到STRC的话题。

But, like, so that's a good transition to STRC.

比如，把它们和Stretch比较一下。

Like, compare them to Stretch.

Stretch当时几乎瞬间就被超额认购了。

Like, Stretch was radically oversubscribed, like, immediately.

我认为这个产品真正契合了市场需求，因为它本质上是在对标货币市场基金。

And I think that's the one that has, like, some real product market fit because so this is the one that he's, you know, essentially kind of comping to, like, a money market fund.

所以这个产品的设计目标是在面值上保持相对稳定，波动范围非常小。

So it's something that's intended to be kinda stable in face value, you know, within, like, a very narrow range.

目标区间大概是0.98到1.01美元左右。

You know, 98 to, like, $1.00 1, I think, is what the the target band.

而且，你知道，收益率非常...

And, you know, pays, a very

是100。

It's a 100.

这应该是100美元。

It's supposed to be a $100.

这应该是的。

It's supposed to be yeah.

你可以把它理解为，基本上，就是这样的。

You could think of it as, like, you know, essentially, like yeah.

他有一个他有一个区间他会坚守，但本质上应该是，你知道的，保持价值稳定，本金稳定，同时配有一个可变股息，他们会根据需要调整，以维持在那个区间内。

He has a he has a band he'll defend, but, like, it's supposed to be, you know, stable value, stable principal value with a with a variable dividend that they adjust to as necessary, to kind of stay within that band.

他们基本上会增加

They basically increase

比如他们会提高利率如果它下跌，因为是按月支付的。

like They increase the interest rate if it goes down, because it's paid monthly.

然后他们就直接，比如，砸ATM机然后抛售股票如果它远超过面值。

And then they then they just, like, smash the ATM and just sell shit down the shares if it if it goes too far over par.

对吧？

Right?

他们也可以，是的，他们也可以进行回购和强制赎回，我想。

They can also, yeah, they can also do, like, buybacks and forced calls, I think.

是的。

Yeah.

100%。

100%.

其中包含强制赎回条款。

One has forced calls in it.

是的。

Yeah.

就像是101之类的。

And, like, one zero one or something.

对。

Yeah.

虽然有些附加条件，但基本上就是这个意思。

And there's some conditions around that, but basically, like, that's the idea.

对吧？

Right?

但正如我所说，我认为这与其他相比是阶梯式变化的原因在于产品市场匹配度。

But the reason I think that that's, like, a step function change relative to the others is, like I said, product market fit.

它瞄准的资金池是货币市场基金，基本上如果你开过经纪账户，把现金放在一边准备以后投资股票之类的。

The pools of capital that that's targeting are money market funds, which are basically if you've ever had a brokerage account and you're keeping, you know, cash on the side to, like, deploy into stocks later or something.

对吧？

Right?

你可以直接把钱存在里面。

You could just park it in.

货币市场基金主要由非常非常短期的政府票据组成，直到几年前，它的收益率基本为零。

A money market fund that is basically composed of, like, very, very, very short dated, like, government bills, And it'll pay, you know, historically, up until a few years ago, would pay, like, basically nothing.

和银行的储蓄账户本质上没什么区别。

It'd be essentially no different than a savings account, at a bank.

比储蓄账户略高一点。

Slightly higher a savings account.

收益率略高一些。

Slightly higher yield.

基本上有FDIC保险。

FDIC protection, basically.

是啊。

Yeah.

尽管你确实这么做了

Although you do you do

有这个。

have this.

现在有SIPC保险，但保额有限。

There is, like, SIPC protection up to some level now.

但无论如何，我们已经在08年见识过这些产品跌破面值会怎样，也经历过真正的银行业危机——那时候美联储就直接化身FDIC兜底一切。

But in any case, so it's basically and, also, like, we we we already found out, like, what would happen if any of these things broke the buck, in o eight, and also what would happen if, like, you know, you had a real banking crisis, like, the Fed would just become the FDIC and backslap everything.

所以在我看来，现在这些担忧已经无关紧要了。

So to me, that's kinda like irrelevant now.

但事实上，美联储加息后货币市场基金开始提供可观收益，4%-5%的收益率让它变成了类高收益储蓄账户。

But in any case, after when the Feds are hiking rates, money market funds actually started to pay, like, a a meaningful yield, like, you know, four to 5% kind of, like, became something like a high yield savings account.

于是大量资金从储蓄账户涌出，停泊在货币基金里坐享收益。

And now there's so a lot of capital flowed out of, you know, savings accounts and into money market funds just to, like, sit there and and park it and, you know, collect the the yield in the meantime.

现在这个规模应该有10到15万亿美元左右。

And so now you've got, I think it's like 10 to $15,000,000,000,000, something like that.

可能这是全球总量。

Maybe that's a global number.

我不确定这是否是美国市场的全部，但这确实是货币市场基金中相当可观的一笔资金。

I don't know if it's US total, but it's it's a meaningful amount of capital in broad money market funds.

还有一类投资者，你可以把他们看作收入型投资者，你知道的，就是那种。

You've also got a, a set of investors that you would think of as kinda like income investors that, you know Yeah.

就像那些老一辈人，只投资分红股票的那种。

Like old boomers that, like, just do dividend stocks.

对。

Yeah.

就是那种，分红...

The the, like, the the dividend

而且他们资金雄厚。

And they have a lot of money.

没错。

Yeah.

不。

No.

完全同意。

Totally.

如果你上过金融推特（FinTwit），虽然我不建议任何人养成这个习惯。

The if you've ever been on, like, FinTwit, like, financial Twitter, I don't necessarily recommend that anyone start that habit.

但那里确实有一整个特定群体，都是这类人。

But, there are, like there's a whole, like, subset of, like, guy.

有种人格类型就是所谓的'分红派'。

That's like a personality type is to be, like, a dividend guy.

是啊。

Yeah.

有很多

There's many

这样的。

of them.

靠股息。

Off dividends.

对。

Yeah.

或者说被动收入。

Or like the Passive income.

没错。

Yeah.

正是如此。

Exactly.

被动收入。

Passive income.

是的。

Yeah.

所以这些人本质上追求的是永续性。

And so those guys aren't like you know, they're perpetual in nature.

理论上他们想永远持有某些资产，只要能持续从中获取收益。

Like, they're theoretically wanna own something, like, forever if they can and just, you know, clip the clip the coupons off it.

他们没有那种，比如说，制度性的强制要求

They don't have, the same type of, like, institutional mandates around like

他们没有任何强制要求

They have no mandates.

他们大概值个200到500万美元

They're, like, worth, like, 2 to $5,000,000.

对

Yeah.

他们就只买分红股票

And they just buy dividend stocks.

嗯

Yeah.

当然

Sure.

而且，你

And, you

知道，等待是没有任何风险的

know, there's no there's no risk waiting.

没有什么需要评级的

There's no, like, something that needs to be rated.

他们明确表示不想要到期日

There's they're explicitly don't they don't want, you know, maturity necessarily.

他们想要可赎回性和相对稳定性

Like, they want redeemability and, like, relative stability.

但基本上，他们主要就是想剪剪优惠券赚点收入。

But, like, mostly, they're they're trying they're just trying to clip coupons and get income.

如果他们不用承担价格风险就能做到，比如相对于可口可乐现在可能3%左右的股息收益率，他们能获得9%到10%的收益率，就是那些所谓的'股息贵族'，如果你查查的话。

And if they don't have to take price risk to do it, like, you know, and they can get nine to 10% kinda yield relative to, you know, what it what's Coca Cola's yield right now, like, dividend yield, like, 3% maybe, like, kind of these dividend, dividend aristocrats, if you look those up.

你知道的，那些收益率大概在低个位数到中个位数之间。

You know, those are, like, low single digit, mid single digit, maybe type type yields.

当然，它们会随时间增长。

Granted, you know, they're growing over time.

但无论如何，这就是你看到的情况。

But either way, like, that's kinda what you're looking at.

所以你要么有那笔资金池，要么有货币市场基金，这两类买家都不会考虑同样的风险权重问题。

So you but either you've got that pool of capital, you've got money market funds, and both of those types of buyers, are you know, don't have the same, like, risk weighting questions.

他们不需要同样的评级要求。

They don't have the same, like, rating needs.

他们不需要考虑债券数学约束。

They don't have, you know, bond math constraints that they're thinking about.

他们不会拿它和十年期国债之类的东西比较。

They're not comping it to, like, you know, a ten year treasury or something like that.

他们真的就只想持有相对稳定的价值资产，能持续产生收入。

They literally just wanna sit there and have, like, relatively stable value that gives them, like, indefinite income.

当他们把资金投入这些产品而非比特币、股票或债券时，就已经决定要持有这种类似现金、能产生收益的工具。

And they've already made the decision if they've got the capital in those things versus Bitcoin or equities or bonds or something else that basically they want, like, a cash like instrument that just pays them income.

对吧？

Right?

这就是它的本质。

And that's what this is.

我认为这是首个真正精准针对特定且庞大细分市场的延伸产品，他完全可以打入这个市场。

And I think this is the first one, this stretch product that really caters very directly to a a particular and and very large, like, market segment that he can go sell into.

而且我觉得，你知道，现在还为时尚早。

And I think, you know, it's very early.

他们目前只完成了一次发行，仅此而已。

It's only like, they've only done, you know, the one issuance.

但据我所知，认购规模大概是五六倍超额。

But the thing was, like, five or six x oversubscribed, I believe.

大家似乎立刻就明白了它的价值。

Everyone seemed to kinda get immediately what it was.

而且我认为，这个产品未来几年完全可以做到很大规模。

And, you know, I think this is one that they could go really do big size in over over the next couple years.

如果你不是彻底否定比特币的人，把它和其他替代品比较，实际风险远低于收益率风险，这个产品的分红率风险比任何替代品都要低得多。

And if if you're not like an outright Bitcoin denier, like, you compare it to other alternatives, the risk is actually way lower than risk to yield, risk to dividend rate is way, way lower with this product than any of the alternatives.

只要你不是完全否定比特币，不认为它会一夜归零崩盘。

As long as you're not like a complete Bitcoin denier, and you don't think it's just gonna go to zero and fail overnight.

因为那样的话显然就毫无抵押物可言了。

Because then obviously, there's really no collateral.

是啊。

Yeah.

对我来说，我觉得它有趣是因为——从宏观层面讲，为什么我会觉得它有趣？

I mean, to me, I like I think it's interesting because high level, why do I think it's interesting?

首先，对于前三种产品，他实际上无法直接控制利率是多少。

First of all, for the first three products, he actually doesn't have direct control over what that interest rate is.

这是由市场决定的。

It's market determined.

所以他某种程度上就是把它抛给市场。

So he kind just throws it into the market.

是的。

Yep.

随着时间的推移，如果你看好比特币，市场很可能会把这些利率降下来。

And then over time, like the market's gonna presumably, I mean, if you're if you're bullish on Bitcoin, presumably the market's gonna bring those rates down.

市场参与者将基本决定他需要为这些优先股支付多少利率。

And the market the market participants are gonna decide basically what interest rate he needs to pay on on those preferreds.

因此，与其亲自打电话与人达成借款购买比特币的交易，不如让这些现有产品存在，由市场决定他的实际借款利率。

So instead of him having to like, call up people and make deals and shit to to borrow and buy Bitcoin, it's just like these outstanding products that exist and the market can determine what his borrow rate is effectively.

因为当他进行ATM操作时，实际上就是在发行新股，这本质上就是他的借款利率。

Because when he's doing ATMs on them, he's selling new shares of them, that's effectively his borrow rate.

这有点像用自由市场的优雅方式解决了这个问题。

And it's kind of like this beautiful free market ish kind of solution to that problem.

STRC有点不同，因为他设置时让他们对利率有更直接的控制权。

STRC is a little bit different because he set it up so they do have more direct control on what that rate is.

理论上，它的利率应该是所有产品中最低的，因为它是按月支付的。

Hypothetically, it probably should be the lowest rate of all of them because it's paid out monthly.

Block自己有点被套住了。

Did block himself a little bit.

他们不能降低股息率，也就是实际利率。

They can't lower the dividend rate, the effective interest rate.

他们每个月能降低的金额大概是固定的。

It's a certain amount they can lower every month or something.

对，我觉得这只是一个

Yeah, think it's just a

所以你

So you

不能突然大幅降低它。

can't just dramatically decrease it on you.

但从宏观层面看，如果你站在比特币多头角度思考，他在做什么？

But like high level, if you think about a high level as a Bitcoin bull, right, what is he doing?

他没有出售普通股，没有通过出售MSTR来购买比特币，而是在出售那些支付年股息率的优先股。

Instead of selling the common, instead of selling MSTR to buy Bitcoin, he's selling the preferreds that are paying a yearly dividend rate.

这些年股息率，大部分都在10%左右。

That yearly dividend rate, most of them came out around 10%.

所以是每年10%的利率。

So 10% annual.

每年他必须支付10%的利息。

Every year he has to pay 10% on it.

除非国债收益率大幅上升，否则这些利率很可能会下降。

Those rates will probably go down unless treasury yields go up significantly.

它们可能会与国债收益率挂钩，但应该会从10%的水平下降。

They'll probably be kind of anchored to treasury yields, but they should go down from 10.

核心思路是，如果比特币的回报率超过那个水平，那么与其现在出售普通股来偿还借款，不如出售普通股来支付股息，而比特币的表现已超越它们，这应该能为普通股股东带来增值。

But the idea is that if Bitcoin outperforms that rate of return, then instead of selling common today to pay for the borrowing, you sell common to pay for the dividends in and a Bitcoin has outperformed them and that should be accretive to the common shareholders.

对吧？

Right?

普通股股东持有的每股比特币数量应该会增加。

The Bitcoin per share for the common shareholders should go up.

这就是高层次的思考逻辑。

Like, that's the high level thought process.

对吧？

Right?

我觉得这个观点很有说服力。

And that seems compelling to me.

是的。

Yeah.

没错。

Yeah.

我认为完全正确。

And I think that that's exactly right.

从普通股股东的角度看，我认为仍会遇到的问题是——我还在脑子里梳理这个逻辑。

I mean, from a common shareholder perspective, the problem that I think you still run into is and I'm just I'm still kinda working through this in my head.

但只要股息发放会拖累每股比特币（BPS）的增长，即便这种拖累非常滞后，且你会像接受资金时间价值那样完全接受这种拖累——毕竟只需在比特币暴涨的漫长周期里承担这个损失。

But as long as there is a drag on your BPS, your Bitcoin per share from issuance of the dividend, even if it's very deferred and you would it's like a drag that you would, like, absolutely accept as it relates to, like, the time value of money, like, only having to take the hit over, you know, a very long period as Bitcoin rips.

你在推进这个观点。

You're pushing that.

是的。

Yeah.

你在拖延它。

You're pushing it out.

我认为在很多情况下，如果你没有一个上升的MNAV、股票倍数的上升，或者至少一个稳定的1.5到2倍的倍数。

I think there are a lot of scenarios where if you don't also have, like, a rising MNAV, a rising multiple on the stock, or at the very least, a consistently, like, you know, 1.5 to two x.

我手头没有所有计算数据，但我认为在很多情况下，持有比特币可能仍然是更好的选择。

I don't have all the math in front of me, but I I think you would probably, in a lot of scenarios, still be better just holding Bitcoin in in the same case.

对吧？

Right?

所以我认为，作为股东要真正获得杠杆效应，你需要相信那个倍数会保持并可能上升。

So I think to really get leverage on it as a shareholder, like, you need to believe that that multiple is gonna hold and probably go up.

我认为如果Sailor开始进一步拉开与同行的距离，并建立一个持久、可重复的飞轮机制，通过发行这些工具来快速大规模收购比特币，并将成本长期分摊给普通股东，那么这可能是一个合理的理由。

And I think there's maybe a reasonable case for that if Sailor is starting to, you know, if if he's starting to distance himself from the pack even more so and establish a a durable, repeatable flywheel of, issuing these things to, like, aggressively and quickly, you know, acquire Bitcoin in size and effectively then defer the, the cost of that over a very, very long period to the common shareholders.

如果你相信他能以加速的方式持续这样做，那么MNAB实际上有理由开始上升并保持一定的持久性。

If you believe that he can keep doing that in maybe an accelerating fashion, then, like, arguably, like, there's reason for the, you know, the MNAB to actually start to rise and be somewhat, you know, durable.

我不确定它最终会稳定在什么水平。

I don't know where it should shake out.

但我想我们上次讨论过这个问题。

But I think we talked about this last time.

但重建另一个MSTR的替代成本，尤其是他拥有的储备，如果你认为他能加速比特币收购的飞轮效应的话。

But the replacement cost of, like, building another MSTR, the reserve that he has, especially if you think he can kind of accelerate that flywheel of further Bitcoin acquisition.

在我看来，这并不一定意味着它应该趋向于1倍的NAV。

Like, it's not clear to me that that should just be that that should necessarily trend to, like, one times NAV.

嗯，我觉得

And so Well, I think the

真正的问题在于他如何将这一优势变现，如果他能够有效实现这一优势的货币化。

real question is the real question is is how he can monetize that advantage if if he can effectively monetize that advantage.

而且我觉得

And I think like

优先股基本上是他尝试将该优势货币化的首个案例。

the preferred shares are basically his first example of trying to monetize that advantage.

是的。

Yeah.

意思是，虽然现在还不完全是，但这有点像自由银行时代的纸币发行。

Mean, it's kind of like it's not really this yet, but it's like it's a little like, banknote issuance during, like, the free banking era.

对。

Yeah.

就像，私人银行业务。

You Like, Private banking.

私人...私人银行业务。

Private private banking.

就像，我给你某种具有面值的东西，你知道的，应该能保值。

Like, there's I'm I'm giving you something that has, like, some face value that I'm I'm you know, should hold.

应该锚定在，比如说，100美元的价值上。

Should be pegged to this, like, value of, you know, a $100.100 on the dollar.

而且，持有它还能获得一些收益。

And, also, it's it's paying you something to hold it.

对吧？

Right?

某种程度上这就像是利率，具体到这里的情况，就像是股息收益率。

Like some interest rate effectively, in this case, like, you know, dividend yield.

市场最终会决定我是否能实质上维持这个挂钩汇率。

And the market will decide, like, if I can defend that peg essentially.

而且，如果市场对我完全没有信心，那么每次增发时，我都不得不支付高得多的利率才能再次发行，明白吗？

And, you know, if if the market is, like, not confident at all that I can, then, you know, incremental issue on incremental issuance, I have to pay, like, much higher rates, right, to to be able to to issue again.

但这里的抵押基础非常牢固，我认为至少在规模膨胀到疯狂程度之前，他极有可能始终能以合理规模维持这个挂钩汇率。

But the collateral base here is so strong, that I think it's very likely at least until he, you know, balloons this thing to some insane size that he very, very likely will always be able to defend this peg, you know, at reasonable sizes.

所以，这让我联想到类似的情况。

So, yeah, like, that's kinda what it reminds me of.

他还提到过要逐步转型为比特币银行。

And he's talked about, you know, becoming a Bitcoin bank over time.

记得你去年那个引发热烈反响的评论吗？是积极的那种反响。

You know, you made that comment last year that everyone, you know, flipped out about, flipped out in a positive way.

我认为这是他发行的首个产品，某种程度上类似于1913年美联储成立前的私营银行类产品。

And this is the first, like, this is the first product that I think he's issued that kind of does, like, look something like, you know, pre pre fed, pre 1913 kind of, you know, private banking, type product.

因此在我看来，基于所有这些原因，这像是战略上的一次阶梯式跨越——或许他现在真正找到了差异化变现资产基础的可持续路径。

So that that's like I see this one as for for all those reasons as kind of an interesting, like, step function change in the strategy, and and maybe he's actually now kind of unlocked the the first way to, to durably monetize, in a differentiated way the the asset base that they have.

我还是不确定持有比特币是否更划算。

I still don't know if you would not just be better holding Bitcoin.

这可能取决于你交易的MNAV（抵押资产净值）比例。

It probably depends on the MNAV that you interact.

就是，你知道，如果你以四倍价格买入，大概就能表现不错。

Like, you know, if you buy it at, you know, four x or whatever, like, probably you're gonna perform.

如果你以1.5倍价格买入，获得杠杆收益的机会就大得多。

You buy it at, like, 1.5, like, you know, probably have a much better shot at kind of benefiting from the leverage of it.

但这就是永恒的问题了——我凭什么不直接持有比特币呢？

But, yeah, that's gonna be the eternal question here is, like, why should I not just hold Bitcoin?

对。

Yeah.

正确的思考方式是你在承担额外风险。

I mean, the the proper way of thinking about it is you're taking additional risk.

它必须跑赢比特币。

It needs to outperform Bitcoin.

如果做不到，那显然不值得冒自主保管比特币的额外风险。

So if it's not, then it's clearly not worth taking that additional risk of holding self custody Bitcoin.

我觉得他肯定意识到了这点。

I think he's definitely aware of that.

但很多市场参与者还没意识到。

I think a lot of market participants aren't yet.

我觉得很多市场参与者甚至没有自主保管比特币。

I think there's a lot of market participants that probably don't even hold self custody Bitcoin.

我认为散户的参与度比大家想象的高得多。

I think there's a lot more retail involved than people give a credit for.

传统观点总说这是被困住的机构资金。

Argument has always been it's trapped institutional money.

他们无法直接购买比特币。

They can't buy Bitcoin directly.

我认为有很多散户只持有MSTR股票或其他比特币相关衍生股票，并不实际持有比特币本身，也尚未考虑这些投资是否能跑赢比特币。

I think there's a lot of retail that only owns MSTR and maybe other derivative Bitcoin stock plays and don't hold self custody Bitcoin and aren't actually thinking about whether or not it's outperforming Bitcoin yet.

我认为随着市场成熟，这显然将成为买家考虑的核心问题。

I think as the market matures, that is clearly going to be what buyers are thinking.

他们会想：如果我买这个，它是否能跑赢比特币？

Is if I buy this, is it gonna outperform Bitcoin or not?

而且这不仅限于MSTR。

And it's not just for MSTR.

这才是最疯狂的地方。

That's the crazy thing.

未来十年里，每一个财务决策、每一笔资金配置都将越来越多地以比特币为基准进行衡量。

Over the next decade, every single financial decision, every single capital allocation decision is going to be increasingly measured against Bitcoin.

如果你无法跑赢比特币，那还不如直接持有比特币。

And if you can't outperform Bitcoin, you're better off just holding Bitcoin.

如果...如果...如果你对自己企业的投资回报都无法超越比特币，那还不如持有比特币而非费力经营企业。

If if if an investment into your own business can outperform Bitcoin, then you're better off holding Bitcoin than trying to grow your business.

是啊。

Yeah.

诸如此类，等等。

Etcetera, etcetera.

没错。

Yeah.

我是说，我原本打算把这个和10月31日联系起来。

I mean, I was gonna connect this back to to 10/31 in that way.

就像，这是我们每天都会与所有创始人和投资组合公司进行的对话。

Like, it's a conversation we have with all of our founders and and portcos every day.

这是我们内部与潜在新投资（比如Hurler rings比特币）进行的讨论。

It's a conversation that we have internally with potential new investments like the the Hurler rings Bitcoin.

你知道的，我们已经就此写过很多文章了。

You know, we've written extensively about this.

就像，我们会把自己与比特币比较——相对于投资公司，单纯持有比特币的机会成本。

Like, we we comp ourselves to Bitcoin to the opportunity cost of just holding Bitcoin instead of, you know, investing in a company.

所以随着这种认知的传播，比特币自然会逐渐成为你的储备资产和记账单位。

So, yeah, I mean, as as this as knowledge of this distributes, bit Bitcoin can't help but become kind of your your reserve asset and your unit of account.

这会彻底改变你必须进行的投资回报率计算。

And it's it dramatically changes the the the ROI calculations you have to make.

我简单说一句，对那些传统金融界人士（假设真有两位在听），这里有个有趣的关联——我建议每位听众都去读威廉·桑代克的《局外人》。

And I really quick, I'll just say for, like, the church the traditional finance people, all all two of them listening, there's an interesting connection to be made with I recommend everybody who's listening go read the book, The Outsiders by William Thorndyke.

这本书很棒，讲述了过去五十年里那些特立独行的上市公司CEO们，他们用截然不同的方式为股东创造了远超标普500指数的回报。

It's a great book about kind of, CEOs over the last, like, fifty years and public companies that have just done things very differently, and generated, like, inarguably fantastic returns relative to, you know, the S and P, for their shareholders as a result.

奥德尔你提到过，对企业进行再投资或业务扩张，可能反而不如直接持有比特币，或是把超额资本返还股东让他们自己持有比特币来得明智。

And Odell, you said something about, like, you know, making an investment in your business, growing your business might actually not be, like, the the right thing to do relative to just holding Bitcoin or distributing to shareholders, distributing excess capital to shareholders so they can hold Bitcoin, like, whatever.

这与很多CEO正在做的回报计算直接相关。

That connects, like, very directly to the return calculation a lot of these CEOs are making.

作为CEO，你的本能反应总是：我要建立商业帝国。

Like, when you're a CEO, your instinct is like, I wanna empire build.

就是，我想变得越来越大，越来越大。

Like, I wanna get bigger and bigger and bigger.

我需要收购更多企业。

I need to go buy more businesses.

我需要开设更多工厂之类的。

I need to go open more factories or whatever.

但很多时候，对股东来说资本回报率最高的做法其实是回购股票、支付股息，或者剥离那些表现不佳的业务部门。

But very often, like, the highest ROIC thing you can do for your shareholders is buy back stock or, you know, pay dividends or spin off, like, some segment that's underperforming or whatever.

对吧？

Right?

所以我认为，那些优秀的CEO，那些真正强大的10倍成长型CEO，其实几十年来一直在做这种计算。

And so I think, like, good CEOs, like, really strong, like, 10x CEOs have already been making this calculation for, you know, decades.

而比特币恰好完美契合这种资本配置框架——我的目标就是为股东创造最佳回报。

And Bitcoin just, I think, slots really nicely into that, like, capital allocation framework of what I'm trying to do is give my shareholders the best possible return.

在这种情况下，我现在必须把持有比特币或分配给股东让他们自行购买比特币也纳入考量。

And in this case, like, now I have to I have to include, like, either holding Bitcoin or distributing to them so they can buy Bitcoin into that calculation.