CD186：约翰·阿诺德 - TEN31市场动态更新

不要重复使用或更改它。

Don't reuse it or change it.

地址。

Address.

是的。

Yeah.

但是但是但是我认为人们的部分恐惧是合理的。

But but but I think part of the fear that people have okay.

所以

So

然后还有短期的，对。

Then there's the short yeah.

你提到了短期攻击。

The you mentioned the short run attacks.

就像那些所谓的长期攻击，基本上假设存在静止不动的UTXO，而你作为量子攻击者，拥有几乎无限的时间去尝试

Like, those are long long what's called long range attacks that basically assume, like, there are UTXOs at rest that are not moving and you have, like, as a quantum attacker, like, an unboundedly high amount of time to try to

基本上，你就是在和其他量子攻击者赛跑。

like you're you're just racing against other quantum attackers, basically.

对。

Right.

是的。

Yeah.

但你有无限的时间。

But you have infinite time.

没错。

Yeah.

具体来说，短期范围内大家真正担心的（无论是否明说）就是那些丢失的比特币——中本聪的比特币。如果有人成功攻击，价值数百万比特币的流动性会冲击市场。

The short range Specifically of in question for those that everyone, whether they say it or not, is concerned about is like the lost Bitcoin, Satoshi's Bitcoin, a couple million Bitcoin worth of liquidity could hit the market if someone did it.

确实。

Yes.

终极阴谋论是：最近所谓的'OG抛售叙事'，实际上就是他们正在被慢慢量子攻击。

The gigabrain conspiracy is that the quote unquote, OG selling narrative that we've been seeing lately is actually just them slowly getting quantumed.

然后被卖掉，我认为这毫无可信度。

And then sold, which I don't think there's any credence to that.

如果这是真的，我会说，你们根本不知道量子计算机的存在有多么利好。

If that's if that's true, I would say, like, y'all have no idea how, like, gigabullish that is, that quantum computers are out there.

所以比特币在理论上已经是可被攻破的，但他们正在以有序的方式缓慢出售，以免冲击市场。

And so Bitcoin's already, like, theoretically compromisable, but they are selling slowly in, like, an orderly fashion to not crash the market.

而且，不是中本聪的那些币。

And, like, not Satoshi's coins.

他们在进行较小规模的OG贷款。

They're doing smaller OG loans.

没错。

Right.

正是如此。

Exactly.

但短程攻击的问题是，我在写的论文中对此略有涉及。

But the short range attack thing is, and I go through this a little bit in the paper I wrote.

要实现一个在密码分析上无关紧要的量子计算机（CRQC），能够进行近乎无限时间的长程攻击，这本身就已经极具挑战性了。

It like, it's already it's already gonna be very challenging to do to get to a crypto cryptanalytically irrelevant quantum computer, a CRQC, that can do like a long range attack with basically infinite time.

虽然绝非不可能，但除了能完成那些可以在实验室模拟条件下展示的相关计算（比如能写在论文里的数据），要将其在现实世界中规模化，还需要投入大量物理基础设施，并精确调整无数参数。

Definitely not impossible, but there are in addition to like being able to do the relevant calculations that you could show on like, you know, benchtop, like simulated conditions that you could put in like a paper or something, to scale that up physically in the world requires like a huge amount of physical infrastructure investment and getting a thousand different dials right.

就像观察人工智能领域或数据中心建设时所见，这需要海量的资源投入。

Like, if you've looked at all AI, if you looked at like data center build out, there's a huge amount.

这可不是英伟达造个包含所有芯片和GPU的Blackwell加速器，然后插上电源就能立刻获得AI那么简单。

It's not just like Nvidia makes like a Blackwell, accelerator, which has all the chips in it, all the GPUs, and then they go and just like plug that into an outlet and and now you have AI.

对吧？

Right?

比如，如果你去看看从Hopper级数据中心向Blackwell过渡的过程，这部分已经有所延迟，因为NVIDIA需要进行数千项细微调整，才能让加速器在数据中心实现最优性能。

Like, there if you go and look at like the transition from the Hopper class data centers into Blackwell, like, those have been partially delayed because there were all these, like, thousands of little, like, tweaks on the margin that NVIDIA had to make to actually make the accelerator optimized for for the data center.

还有一些小细节，比如他们不得不重新设计数据中心的地板，确保其足够坚固以支撑机架等设备，以及集群之间交互的方式。

And and it's a little things like they had to, like, reengineer, like, the floors of the data center to be, like, solid enough to, like, hold hold the racks and various other things, like, way that the the clusters, like, interact with each other.

所以我说这些是因为，量子计算将会把这些挑战放大一千倍。

And so I I say all that because, like, quantum is gonna be that times, like, a thousand.

比如，还有如此多的附加条件必须满足——必须秘密进行。

Like, there's so there's so much additional conditionality that has to be It has to do it secret.

什么？

What's that?

然后你还要

Then you have

秘密进行。

to do it in secret.

而且必须保密。

And it has to be secret.

这需要消耗巨大的能量。

There's a there's a ton of power that is required.

现实世界中还有大量基础设施必须正确搭建。

There are a ton of things that have to go right in the physical world, infrastructure that has to be set up.

此外，破解密钥所需的能量会呈线性增长。

And, also, the hacking of keys will will like, the the power required to do that scales linearly.

也就是说，你无法高效地一次性将所有P2PK密钥全部攻破。

So, like, which is to say, like, you there is not, like, a way to efficiently just, like, take all of the P2PK keys out there and just like at once in one shot, like compromise them all.

每个密钥都需要经历量子计算处理的过程，我在论文中也详细阐述了这一点。

Like each one has to go through would have to go through like the process of kind of being run through quantum computing process, which I go through in the paper as well.

所以这将非常昂贵。

And so like, it's gonna be costly.

仅从物理层面实现就极其困难。

It's gonna be very difficult to just do physically.

这还是针对长期攻击而言——在这种攻击中你有充足的时间。

And that's just for long range attacks where you have like as much time kind of as you want.

短期攻击理论上你只有约十分钟的时间窗口（平均而言）。

Short range attacks, theoretically, you have to do like, you kind of have to assume you have like a ten minute window, like on average.

对吧？

Right?

因为一旦交易被打包进区块，一旦资金转入新地址（假设不是转到某个易受攻击的地址），之前暴露的密钥就失效了——交易上链后不可逆转。

Because once it's in a block, once it's in a new address, assuming you're not spending to, you know, a vulnerable address in some way, if once it's new address, like, the key that was exposed is no longer relevant, it's it's in a block, can't be reversed.

因此你基本上必须考虑——不仅要应对我刚才列举的所有挑战，还必须在十分钟内完成所有这些。

And so you basically have to you have to think not only you've gotta deal with all those all those challenges I just enumerated, you've gotta do all that in ten minutes.

对吧？

Right?

所以短程攻击确实是最可怕的事情。

So short range attacks are are that's the scariest thing for sure.

因为那时你实际上就陷入了一场手续费战争，必须确保自己能足够快地进入区块，以免在公开花费公钥后比特币在传输过程中被窃取。

Because then, yeah, you're in like a basically a fee war, right, to make sure you can get into a block fast enough to to not have your Bitcoin compromised in flight once you've exposed the public key to spend it.

但这同时也是最难跨越的门槛。

But it's also like far and away the highest bar to be met.

而且我认为除了基本的纠错机制外，仍有大量物理层面的问题需要解决。

And I think there's still a ton of physical stuff that has to happen in addition to just the basic mechanics of error correction.

单就这一点而言，更像是尚未大规模解决的软件和设计问题。

And that's like by itself more like a software and design question that still hasn't been fully answered at scale.

所以要让这种威胁真正具有现实意义，还需要很多条件达成。

So, there's a lot that needs to happen for this to get to a point where it's actually a relevant threat.

与此同时，你确实有很多方法来缓解潜在威胁。

And in the meantime, you do have a lot of ways to mitigate the potential threats.

但也有许多现成的解决方案，你我并非——或许存在所谓‘互联网支柱人物’的概念。

But then there are also a lot of solutions already that you and I are not they're probably like there's this idea of a a load bearing Internet person.

我认为同理，也存在‘密码学支柱人物’。

And I think similarly, there are, like, load bearing cryptography people.

但这类人全球可能只有500位真正担此重任。

But it's, maybe, like, 500 in the world who are much responsible.

是的。

Yeah.

我们能在任何系统中实现加密功能，全靠这500位天才和资深专家。

Like, the reason we can have any sort of encryption, like, functionally across any system is because, like, 500, like, you know, geniuses and gray beards.

实际人数还不到100人。

It's less than a 100 people.

没错。

Yeah.

可能吧。

Probably.

没错。

Right.

但幸运的是，其中一些人对比特币的工作非常感兴趣，并且已经提出了几项提案。我在那篇文章中讨论过其中一些，本周还刚接触到一个新提案，这些方案可能以某些方式升级比特币，有些甚至无需软分叉就能实现，当然也有需要软分叉的提案。

But, fortunately, some of those, are very interested in working on Bitcoin, and there have been several proposals, some of which I walked through in that piece and one of which I actually just hit this week, to potentially, upgrade Bitcoin in ways some and some ways to do that would not even require a soft fork, but there are also soft fork proposals out there, to to do it.

每种方案都有利弊。

They all have trade offs.

每种方案都需要权衡考量。

They all have, things that need to be considered.

但那种认为这是比特币无解的生存危机、我们即将无路可退无法刹车的想法，实在是非常非常荒谬的。

But the idea that, like, this is some insoluble problem that is just like existential for Bitcoin, and it's just we're about to drive off a cliff with no way to, you know, reverse or, hit the brakes or avoid it is just very, very misplaced.

现有多种方案可以升级并强化比特币。

There are a lot of options available to upgrade Bitcoin to harden it.

重申一下，其中许多方案都相当轻量级，并不一定需要对协议进行重大修改。

Again, many of which are fairly lightweight and don't necessarily require some massive change to the protocol.

所以，是的，在这方面有很多理由保持乐观。

So, yeah, there's a lot of reason for optimism on that.

但我想，一个需要注意的问题是，比特币作为一个极难改变的系统，它依赖于全球参与者之间粗略的去中心化共识，没有总统或终身仁慈的独裁者能够强行推动变革。

But the one, I guess, you know, caveat to that is Bitcoin as this very hard to change system that's, you know, based on rough rough decentralized consensus among global actors with no president or benevolent dictator for life who can kind of force through a change.

就像，你知道的，我们确实会遇到一些协调上的摩擦，可能对任何类型的改变都是如此。

Like, you know, we do have there there will be like some coordination friction probably to any kind of change.

因此，值得尽早考虑的是，你最终希望采取什么措施来解决这个问题，既能降低风险，又不会给比特币带来额外的风险。

So it's worth thinking sooner than later on how would you you know, what would you ultimately wanna do to make a fix for this that, mitigates risk without without injecting incremental risk to Bitcoin.

理想情况下，你希望在真正面临时间压力之前就解决这个问题，毕竟我们还不确定是否真的存在量子计算机。

And, ideally, you wanna do that before it's like you're actually on the clock to, you know, figure it out, with, a real quantum computer that may or may not actually exist.

是啊。

Yeah.

我的意思是，我很喜欢你用‘问题之一是没有清晰简洁的回应’来开始那长达十分钟的解释。

I mean, I love how you started off that, like, ten minute explanation with one of the problems is there's no clear concise response.

这就是个很好的例子。

Case in point.

我的看法是，首先在炒作方面，关于量子炒作的一个例子是，Vitalik在推出以太坊之前，曾为一个号称要主导比特币挖矿的量子项目筹款。

I mean, look, I think from my opinion, first of all, the on the hype side, terms of quantum hype, just one example of quantum hype is that before Vitalik launched Ethereum, he raised money for a quantum scheme that was supposed to dominate Bitcoin mining.

那全是胡扯。

And that was all bullshit.

之后他就推出了以太坊。

And then he launched Ethereum afterwards.

我个人，你知道的，并不是密码学专家。

I personally, you know, a cryptographic, not a cryptography expert.

我连这个词都念不利索。

I could hardly even pronounce the word.

但我并不太相信这种说法。

But I don't really give this much credence.

我不认为这个威胁有多严重。

I don't give that much credence to this threat.

我根本不相信这是个真实的威胁。

I don't really believe it's a real threat.

也许我错了。

Maybe I'm wrong.

话虽如此，我认为所谓的'缓解措施'相对简单直接。

That said, I think the quote unquote mitigation is relatively straightforward.

我认为已经有很多优秀的研究正在进行。

I think there's a lot of good research being done.

我记得看到分叉出了一个抗量子攻击的新地址类型。

I think we saw fork in a new address type that is quantum resistant.

使用它可能需要支付更高的手续费。

It'll probably cost more in fees to use it.

然后人们可以自行选择是否使用它。

And then people will choose if they wanna use it or not.

这样我们就可以暂时搁置这个问题了。

And then we can just put a pin in this.

以后每当有人提起量子话题，直接说'用抗量子地址类型并多付点钱'就行了。

And just whenever someone says anything about quantum, it's like, okay, use the quantum resistant address type and pay more for it.

人们可以自愿选择是否使用它。

And people can voluntarily choose to use it or not.

我认为如果需要的话，这将是一个相对简单的软分叉。

I think it'd be a relatively easy soft fork if we need it.

如果它需要成为一个软分叉（我认为这极有可能），那将是一个相对简单的软件，因为它不会影响不使用该地址类型的任何人。

If it needed to be a soft fork, which I think most likely it would be, it'd be a relatively easy software because it doesn't affect anyone who doesn't use the address type, period.

至于如何处理那些存放在公钥支付地址中的币的建议，比如直接硬分叉。

As for proposals about what we do with coins that are sitting in pay to pub key addresses or whatever, like, just hard knack.

不。

No.

我完全不同意没收或冻结它们或任何类似的做法。

I completely disagree with seizing them or freezing them or anything like that.

我认为从根本上说，所谓的‘治疗’比疾病本身更糟糕。

I think that just fundamentally, you know, the quote unquote cure is worse than the disease.

我认为这从根本上违背了比特币利益相关者一直遵循的社会契约，即财产权是神圣不可侵犯的。

I think it fundamentally breaks the social contract that Bitcoin stakeholders have gone by this entire time, which is that property rights is sacred.

所以如果量子计算支持者是对的，这不是炒作，旧地址遭到攻击，我们会经历短期波动。

So if the quantum believers are correct, and it's not all hype, and the old addresses get hit, we will have some short term volatility.

比特币会遭受打击。

Bitcoin will take a hit.

但这不会是致命一击。

It will not be a kill shot.

而且这没什么大不了的。

And that will be fine.

如果我们先发制人地没收比特币，而量子威胁从未实现，那才是我们对比特币的致命打击。

If we seize the if we seize Bitcoin preemptively, and quantum never materializes, we just kill shot at Bitcoin ourselves is what we did.

在我看来，比特币到那时就彻底失败了。

Like Bitcoin has very, in my opinion, Bitcoin fails at that point.

是的。

Yeah.

暂且打住这个话题——我很好奇你的看法。

Just to put a pin in this just to I'm curious your opinion.

你觉得我们之前的历史高点是在126吗？

Do you think so we were at the all time high was one twenty six.

你已经公开说过周期在欺骗SIOP。

You've already on the record saying cycles are faking to SIOP.

我们当时达到了9万。

We were at 90 k.

所以我，我不是量化专家，那大概是比历史高点下跌35%左右。

So I'm, I'm not the quant that's like a 35% or 35% down or something like that from all time highs.

我说得对吗？

Am I correct on that?

对。

Yeah.

你认为量子因素跟这个有关系吗？

Do you think the quantum stuff has had anything to do with that?

价格走势？

Price action?

我几周前发过一条推文。

I tweeted, like, a few weeks ago.

我，我发了一条推文，很抱歉没有在Nostr上发布。

I, I put out a tweet, and I'm sorry that I didn't post it on Nostr instead.

我也不太清楚为什么没发，可能觉得那只是些法币相关的推文，就留在那边了。

I don't really know why I didn't I think it was just some more, like, fiat tweets, so I left it back there.

但我列出了一份非穷尽清单，说明导致比特币抛售的原因并非这些：Zcash资金轮动、量子计算、垃圾邮件辩论、日元套利交易，以及几周前流传的精心编造的MicroStrategy同人小说。

But, I said an inexhaustive list of things not causing the Bitcoin sell off, Zcash rotation, quantum computing, spam debates, the Yen carry trade, and elaborate micro strategy fan fiction, which was floating around a couple weeks ago.

所以我认为量子计算不是我们从历史高点跌到90的原因。

So I think quantum computing is not the reason that we dumped from, all time highs to 90.

我我觉得这更多与流动性周期有关，银行准备金正在收紧。

I I think that has much more to do with liquidity cycle, bank reserves getting tight.

比特币总是双向波动的先行指标。

Bitcoin's always the first thing to move in both directions.

当，当遇到流动性问题或流动性开始拐头向上时。

When, there's a when you're running up on a liquidity, issue or when liquidity is starting to inflect higher.

而且，你知道，总的来说，过去一个月左右传统资产市场波动更大，人们对AI交易的担忧加剧，一些AI龙头企业也面临压力。

And, you know, there's also, like, in general, the market for the last month or so has been traditional assets has been rockier with a lot more fears on the AI trade and, some of the AI stalwarts kinda coming under pressure.

无论对错，比特币与科技股以及高贝塔、高动量资产存在明显相关性。

Bitcoin rightly or wrongly has clear correlation to tech stocks and, high beta, high momentum stuff.

所以我认为这解释了99.9%的比特币波动原因，除此之外的主要驱动因素只能是根本性事件，比如美国总统当选后宣布要建立战略比特币储备，或者ETF获批之类的情况。

So, I think that that is like 99.9% of the reason that Bitcoin moves kinda like ever other than the only other major drivers are something really fundamental like the president of The United States gets elected and said he wants says he wants to do a strategic Bitcoin reserve or like ETFs come into play or something like that.

不，我不认为抛售是由那些个别因素导致的。

No, I don't think we sold off because of any of those individual things.

从边际效应看，确实有人看到价格从1.27万跌到9000后开始恐慌。

On the margin, do I think like there are people who were looking at the price action and looking at, shit, it fell from $1.27 to 90.

对此我感到相当糟糕。

I feel pretty bad about that.

说实话，我对未来六个月的宏观形势并不乐观。

I don't, you know, I don't love the macro setup for the next six months.

还有个莫名其妙的量子计算话题，虽然我完全不懂，但所有人都在跟我讨论这个。

And there's this like random quantum thing I don't understand that everyone's telling me about.

比如，你知道吗？

Like, yeah, you know what?

我不如先套现一部分。

I might as well take some off the table.

这绝对是很多人都有过的想法。

That definitely is like a thought process I imagine a lot of people have had.

但最初抛售冲动的真正原因与量子计算毫无关系。

But the, the reason for it, for like the initial sell off impulse, think, has nothing to do with quantum computing.

讽刺的是，我认为这可能与四年周期迷因有关——因为存在自我实现预言的因素，有些交易者一直期待第四季度比特币会暴涨，仅仅因为历史周期表是这么写的。

Ironically, I do think it might relate to the four year cycle meme because there is, an element of self flowing prophecy, and there are people who have been in the trade thinking that they were gonna get some crazy Bitcoin pump in q four because that's what the calendar says.

所以当预期落空时，那些投机客和杠杆交易者自然就被清洗出局了。

So, you definitely have tourists and leveraged traders who have gotten wiped out or gotten blown out, when, you know, that didn't play out.

因此相比量子计算领域，这个因素可能更具相关性。

So, like, that that has probably been, I think, more relevant than, like, quantum computing spheres.

不过这就是我的看法。

But, yeah, that's that's my thought on that.

我要说的是，还没有一个认真的投资者向我询问过Zcash。

I will just say that there hasn't been a single serious investor who has asked me about Zcash.

所以这绝对与所谓的'Zcash轮动'无关，不过我喜欢你提到这一点。

So it's definitely not related to quote unquote Zcash rotation, but I like that you had it in there.

那么说到这个，你怎么解释科技七巨头几乎创历史新高、黄金创历史新高、白银创历史新高，而比特币却下跌35%？

So then on that note, like, do you explain how do you explain mag 7 near all time highs, gold at all time highs, silver at all time highs, and Bitcoin down 35%?

是啊。

Yeah.

就像我说的，科技七巨头在过去一个月确实经历了更多波动。

Well, like I said, like, mag seven's definitely gone through, like, more volatility in the last month.

我认为当科技七巨头打个喷嚏，比特币往往就会感冒。

And I think when mag seven, like, sneezes, Bitcoin catches the cold a lot of the time.

对我来说黄金的情况更有趣。

The gold one is the more interesting one to me.

对吧？

Right?

就是，

Like, the

还有白银。

And silver.

白银涨幅比黄金还大。

Silver's are more than gold.

白银具有工业属性，如果你观察许多工业金属，它们呈现相似的走势，我认为部分原因是人工智能基础设施的建设，以及人们预见到未来需要大量金属来实现这一目标，无论是在美国、中国还是其他地方。

Silver's got silver's got, like, an industrial dynamic to it where if you look at a lot of, like, industrial metals, they're kind of showing similar moves because of I think partially because of the the AI build out and, people prepositioning ahead of seeing all the, metals that are gonna be needed to, pull that off, whether it's here or in China or somewhere else.

所以在某种程度上，我认为这更像是一个工业需求的故事。

So to some extent, I think that's like a an industrial story.

但你知道，我们一直希望看到比特币与黄金脱钩，结果事与愿违，我们以错误的方式脱钩了。

But, you know, we've always we've always wanted to see Bitcoin decoupling from gold, and then the monkey's paw curled, and we decoupled the wrong way.

我记得几年前，帕克·刘易斯在达拉斯一个俱乐部做过一场演讲，题目叫《比特币不是避险资产》。

And I think a couple years ago, Parker Lewis had a did a talk at, it's like a club in Dallas, called Bitcoin is not a hedge.

那场演讲确实很精彩。

And it's it's good talk.

这个演讲大概只有二十分钟长。

It's like probably only twenty minutes long.

他在其中提出的一个观点是，实际上比特币的认知度尚未足够广泛，因此无法作为主要的避险工具，也无法成为全球央行、财政部、大型主权机构和大规模机构投资者表达所谓'货币贬值交易理论'的主要阀门。

One of the points he makes in there is that effectively, like, the knowledge of Bitcoin is not sufficiently, like, widely distributed for Bitcoin to serve as like a the primary risk off hedge or the primary valve for central banks around the world and treasuries around the world and big sovereign actors and massive institutional actors to express the what you could call like the debasement trade thesis.

所以当这些群体寻求脱离美元体系——甚至是一般的法定货币体系——转向外部货币时，黄金确实拥有约一万年的历史记录，而且他们很多人本来就持有大量黄金。

And so when those when those groups look to get out of the dollar system and or even just like the fiat systems in general, get into outside money, like gold realistically has what, like a ten thousand year track record, and a lot of them already own a bunch of gold anyway.

他们已经做好了快速配置黄金的准备。

They're set up to be able to allocate to that quickly.

他们理解这一点。

They get it.

虽然比特币的波动性正在下降，但黄金确实波动较小。

They it is like, it is less volatile, although Bitcoin's volatility is coming down.

所以他们持有这个观点。

So, they have that argument.

而且我认为，今年我们看到那些关于'美国将实施金融压制'的新闻标题时，人们的第一反应就是...

And I think, like, the knee jerk for the headlines that we're seeing this year about, The US is gonna do financial repression.

美国债务负担疯狂。

US debt burden's crazy.

我们需要摆脱现状，可能将部分价值从美国国债中转移出来，尤其是考虑到未来几年特朗普可能推行的‘一项宏伟法案’等政策。

We need to get outside of, rotate some value potentially out of US treasuries, especially given what's probably coming down the pipe in the next couple years, what Trump wants to do with one big beautiful bill, everything else.

债务和赤字只会继续扩大。

Debt and deficits are only gonna expand.

与此同时，美国实际上是在告诉所有人：‘带着你的资本回家吧’，因为我们想重振制造业，从根本上重构全球贸易秩序。

And meanwhile, the The US is basically telling everyone, like, in some sense, like, take your capital and go home because we wanna reshor manufacturing and we wanna basically rework the entire entire global trade order.

所以，如果你想转向某种中立储备资产，在这种思维模式下唯一可选的只有黄金。

So, like, your natural move is if you want to rotate into some other, like, neutral reserve asset, the really the only thing that's available to you if you're in that mindset is gold.

对吧？

Right?

我认为直到过去这一年半，这类机构才真正开始直面我们过去十五年里用比特币或明或暗表达的这种交易理念。

And I think only this past year this past year, year and a half have groups like that really had to confront that trade that we've all been kind of like implicitly or explicitly expressing with Bitcoin, for the last, you know, fifteen years.

除了中国——过去十年一直在大力增持黄金——我认为其他机构直到最近几年才开始认真对待这件事。

They've only really started to take that seriously, I think, in the last couple years other than China, which has been rotating heavily into gold for the last ten years.

但对他们来说，所有这些都表明，如果你想表达那个观点，黄金自然是最佳选择。

But for them, all that is to say, like, the the move there, if you want to express that thesis, is just naturally gold.

对吧？

Right?

目前还不是比特币。

It's not it's not Bitcoin, yet.

尽管可能有一些正在增长的例外情况我们可以讨论。

Although there's some maybe growing exceptions to that that we can talk about.

但我们处于比特币生命周期的如此早期阶段，你在黄金上看到的顺风因素，我认为由于...是的...

But we're so early in Bitcoin's life cycle that the tailwinds that you've seen for gold, I think, are happening for reasons that are not yet easily, like, replicable for Bitcoin because Yep.

关于它的知识和理解在那些做决策的人中还没有充分普及。

Knowledge of it and understanding of it just is not sufficiently distributed among the people who are making those decisions.

嗯，某种程度上，我认为比特币最终会被视为终极避险资产，终极风险规避资产。

Well, at some point, like this Bitcoin, I think will be treated as the ultimate safe haven, like the ultimate risk off asset.

我们只是还没达到它被广泛采用的阶段。

And we're just not there in its adoption cycle yet.

顺便说一句，我认为部分原因在于，如果你不持有自托管的比特币，就很难感受到比特币作为避险资产的特质。

And I think part of it, by the way, is if you're not holding self custody Bitcoin, it's hard to feel the safe haven aspects of Bitcoin.

就像如果你持有iBit，某种程度上它感觉像是个垃圾币。

Like if you're holding iBit, it feels like a shitcoin to a degree.

在很多方面，它感觉像是一种风险资产。

It feels like a risk on asset in a lot of ways.

比特币作为避险资产的许多内在价值——我用这个词有点双关——来自于我可以离线持有它，你无法为我没收它，我可以在无需许可的情况下消费和储蓄它。

A lot of a lot of like the intrinsic and I, you know, I kind of use that word in a in a punny way value of Bitcoin as a safe haven asset comes from the fact that I can hold it offline that you can't seize it for me, that I can spend and save it without permission.

我认为那些不以自托管方式使用比特币的人，将更难理解这一点。

And I think people that aren't using it in a self custody fashion, it's gonna be harder for them to come to terms with that.

这就是我提到'科技七巨头'的原因。

But this is why I brought up the mag seven.

对吧？

Right?

因为我觉得可以合理地说：人们开始意识到'曼迪效应'正在被市场定价。

Because I think it's reasonable to be like, okay, people are starting to realize mandibles is starting to get priced in.

人们开始意识到这一点，于是转向黄金和白银。

And people are starting to realize that and they're moving into gold and silver.

白银有点像黄金的跟风交易。

Silver was kind of like an echo trade to gold.

对吧？

Right?

就像黄金先动起来了。

It's like gold moved first.

然后人们就想，哦，我可以在还没动的白银上赚点钱。

And then people are like, oh, I can make some money on silver that hasn't moved yet.

然后白银涨得更猛。

And then it moved harder.

但有趣的是，所谓的'七大巨头'——我是说，这七家公司现在基本上就代表了标普指数。

But but the interesting one is the mag seven is that that I mean, that mag seven is basically the s and p now.

所以如果你看标普指数，它现在几乎处于历史高点，这显然是一种风险偏好型的情景。

And so if you look at the S and P, the S and P is like right near all time highs, and that's obviously a risk on type of scenario.

你怎么解释这个现象？

How do you explain that?

你有合理的解释吗？

Like, do you have a good explanation for that?

我有自己的理论，不过...

I have my own theory, but Well,

首先我想说的是，给它点时间。

I mean, first thing I would say is, like, give it some time.

让我们拭目以待。

Like, let's see.

因为从历史上看，比特币在上涨和下跌时都曾这样表现过，比如今年早些时候，如果你还记得，今年初的局部高点出现在特朗普就职时。

Because historically, you know, Bitcoin's done this before in on both the upside and the downside, where, like, even earlier this year, if you remember, like, the the local top at the start of this year was Trump's inauguration.

然后比特币就一路下跌。

And then it was just kinda, like, down only on Bitcoin.

那段时间比特币的价格走势相当难看，震荡了几个月，而股市直到二月底三月初才真正有所反应。

It was, like, really ugly, choppy price action for a couple months, and equities didn't really respond until like late February, early March.

然后在四月初特朗普宣布解放日时，出现了真正的暴跌。

And then you had like the real dump in early April when Trump did liberation day.

对吧？

Right?

所以我们即将进入一个时期，如果你把今年年初到现在的情况对应起来，可能会开始对股市产生更实质性的震荡，尤其是如果比特币再次预示流动性紧缩或系统中的其他问题。

So we're coming up on a period that like, you know, if if you were to map the, you know, early this year to now, like, you're coming on a period that could be potentially start to get actually more meaningfully rocky for equities to the extent that Bitcoin is again predicting, you know, tightness in liquidity or some other like issue in the system.

这就像是一个例证。

And that's like, that's one anecdote.

但如果你回顾比特币的价格历史，你会反复看到比特币

But you if you go back through Bitcoin's like price history, like, you'll see that over and over again that Bitcoin

会出现像2020年3月那样的虚假周期之类的。

will Last have like fake cycle or whatever, March 2020.

没错。

Yep.

比特币最先下跌。

Bitcoin fell first.

是的。

Yep.

然后股市经历了几天血腥的连续跌停，市场关闭，而比特币在其他资产之前率先反弹。

And then equities had their bloody few days of like limit downs over and over again, market closed and then Bitcoin bounced first before everyone else.

我正在看图表。

I'm looking at the chart.

比特币在2020年1月底时正逼近10,000美元大关。

Like, Bitcoin ended January 2020, like, right bumping up against, like, 10,000.

这张图表没有记录三月那个极其惨烈的一天，就是3月12日。

And then, this chart doesn't capture the the really brutal day in March, but, like March 12.

3月12日。

March 12.

对。

Yeah.

但到了三月初，比特币价格已经跌到了6,000美元左右。

But, like, in early and by early March by early March, it was down to, like, 6,000.

对吧？

Right?

那时候NBA还没停赛，大家都觉得那天人们才真正意识到经济真的要停摆了。

And that was before anyone like, was before the NBA had closed down, and everyone was like, that's that seems to be the day that everyone took seriously that, like, they were really just gonna close the economy.

但在股市明显意识到之前，比特币已经经历了几个月的糟糕行情。

But you had a couple months of, like, pretty bad price action for Bitcoin before it was, like, really obvious to the equity markets.

我当时在对冲基金工作，记得二月份行情波动很大，人们已经在讨论新冠疫情，但2020年那会儿还带着明显的种族歧视色彩。

And I was, like, I was in hedge fund seat at that time and, like, yeah, February was I remember February being, like, choppy and, like, people were talking about COVID, but, like, it was still, like, effectively racist in, like, 2020.

明确一下，NBA是在3月11日停赛的。

To be clear to be clear, the NBA shut down March 11.

是的。

Yeah.

没错。

Yeah.

所以比特币真正暴跌是在NBA停赛后的第二天，那时候大家才恍然大悟。

So the the really bad day in Bitcoin was the day after the NBA shut that was when it hit everyone.

他们当时反应是，哦，糟了。

They were like, oh, fuck.

是啊。

Yeah.

总之，不是要让我们陷入...抱歉。

So, anyway, not not to get us onto Sorry.

那个特定的时期

That particular, like, period

的历史。

of history.

那实际上是个减半周期，虽然关系不大。

That was actually the halving cycle that had that was a little it was tangentially related.

但我想说的是，有很多这样的例子——当你看到比特币莫名其妙地突然暴跌40%，或者在其他资产还没反应前就异常疲软时。

But there are a bunch of examples like this is my point of when you see, like, inexplicably, oh, Bitcoin just took, a 40% bath for no, like, obvious reason, or it's, like, suddenly trading really badly before everything else is.

就像在问，到底发生了什么？

Like, what's going on?

就像，你知道的，自从我开始密切关注比特币以来，我通常发现这往往是一个信号，预示着未来一到三个月内，整体风险资产可能会出现波动。

Like, you know, generally, I've found since I've been paying close attention to Bitcoin, generally, I've found that that's typically a good signal that there's choppiness ahead for for general risk assets, probably on the offset of, like, you know, one to three months.

对吧？

Right?

所以这一切只是想表达，我们拭目以待吧。

So all that is just to say, like, let's see.

比如，让我们看看科技七巨头会有什么变化。

Like, let's see what happens with mag seven.

如果你这周有在关注，甲骨文公司的财报表现糟糕。

If you've been paying attention this week, like, Oracle had an an awful print.

甲骨文的股票下跌了

Stock was down Oracle

它不属于科技七巨头

is not mag seven

今天。

today.

说起来特别搞笑，Oracle就是个绝佳例子——就当是个小插曲吧。

Which hilariously, like, for, like, just as a quick tangent, like, Oracle is this great example of yeah.

今天又跌了4%。

It's down another four percent today.

Oracle就是个典型例子，展示了晚期法币逻辑的终极形态——你可能记得今年夏天这股票涨了40%左右。

Oracle is this great example of, like, the the logical conclusion of, like, late stage fiat because you may remember this summer, the stock was up, like, 40%.

它原本就已经是市值数千亿美元的股票，6000亿美元级别的。

It's, like, already it was already, like, a, you know, multi $100,000,000,000 stock, like, $600,000,000,000 stock.

一天之内暴涨40%，就因为拉里·埃里森做了些疯狂预测，说未来几年要达到天方夜谭的数字，他们根本不可能实现。

It was up, like, 40% in one day because Larry Ellison made some crazy projections about, you know, ridiculous numbers over the next few years that probably they're never gonna hit.

从那以后就开始大幅下跌。

And then since then, it's it's had this massive down move.

所有涨幅都回吐了。

It's unwound all of it.

基本上今年就是坐了个过山车。

And it's basically like a round trip this year.

你看到的是一家市值万亿的公司，今年经历了这种疯狂的上下波动，结果基本上原地踏步。

You've got like essentially a trillion dollar company that has had these insane moves this year on both the upside and the downside, and it's basically gone nowhere.

所以当我们思考为什么需要比特币，为什么这种长期储蓄工具是必要且有用的时候？

So as we just think about, like, why Bitcoin and why are we seeing why why is something like this necessary and useful as, a long term savings vehicle?

这就是你的答案。

You know, there's there's your answer.

世界上最大的公司之一，一个有着50年历史的技术巨头，交易起来却像个模因币。

Like, one of the biggest companies in the world, one of the you know, a 50 year old tech stalwart is trade like, you know, a meme coin.

对吧？

Right?

但不管怎样，如果你今天看到博通的股价表现，肯定也注意到英伟达一直承压。

But anyway, if you're looking at that, if you're looking at the Broadcom print today, you're definitely seeing NVIDIA has been under pressure.

OpenAI在短短六周内就从行业宠儿变成了众人眼中的失败者。

OpenAI is now has gone from being like in, you know, six weeks being like the industry darling, you know, to to end all industry darlings to like everyone basically saying like, yeah, they're they're, you know, they're dead.

谷歌会用价格把它们挤出市场，奥特曼最终会输得精光。

Google's gonna, price them out of the market and, you know, Altman's gonna be it's gonna be a total zero.

对吧？

Right?

就像，这就是，这就是现在的共识。

Like, that's the, that's the consensus now.

所以，就像，所有这些只是为了回到你关于'七巨头'的观点。

So, like, all that is just to to get back to your point on mag seven.

就像，AI产业现在看起来不太妙。

Like, the AI complex is, like, not looking great right now.

而这甚至还没考虑其他背景中的流动性动态。

And that's before you even consider, like, other, you know, liquidity dynamics in in the background.

所以，让我们看看接下来一两个月股市会发生什么，然后再对比特币的相关性下结论，看看它是否完全偏离基准。

So, like, let's see, like, what happens over the next, like, month or two with with equities, before we really make a call on Bitcoin's, like, correlation and whether it's, like, you know, totally off base.

但我确实认为，更广泛地说，对于展望未来的人...你想说点什么吗？

But I do think, like, more generally, for people who are looking ahead to do do you wanna say something?

抱歉。

I'm sorry.

我刚才一直在长篇大论。

I've been filibustering.

不。

No.

我刚才在看Oracle的走势图。

I was looking at the Oracle chart.

它那个五年走势图简直太搞笑了。

It like, it's pretty hilarious five year chart.

嗯，我想说的是，我喜欢让你自由发挥。

The well, the one thing I would say is, and I like I like just letting you cook.

别让我再打断你了，不过是你主动提出的。

Don't let me interrupt you again, but you offered.

所以我要打断你一下。

So I'm gonna interrupt you.

我除了投资比特币业务外没有任何股票持仓，就是10-31基金投的那些。

I have no equities exposure except for the Bitcoin businesses that envy that ten thirty one has invested in.

显然，这些大多是私营公司，目前只有Fold例外——我们持有其公开上市的股票，而这些股票原本是私有的，是我们帮助它们上市的。

Obviously, most of those are private companies with the exception right now of fold, which we hold public shares in that were private and we help bring them public.

所以我非常像是一个保持谦逊、持续积累的人。

So I'm very much like a stay humble, stack sasser.

但对于普通人来说，从我的角度看，MAG七巨头包括苹果、微软、亚马逊、Alphabet、Facebook（现Meta）、英伟达和特斯拉。

But for the average person, from my view, so the MAG seven is Apple, Microsoft, Amazon, Alphabet, Facebook, Meta, NVIDIA, and Tesla.

苹果、微软、亚马逊、Alphabet、Meta。

Apple, Microsoft, Amazon, Alphabet, Meta.

所以基本上不包括英伟达或特斯拉。

So basically not NVIDIA or Tesla.

我认为有个相当合理的观点是，它们正被定价为避险资产。

I think there's like a decent argument that they're being priced as risk off assets.

就像在问：情况还能糟糕到什么程度呢？

It's like, bad could it get?

再次声明，这不是财务建议——但如果你坐在那里，既想避免亏损，又目睹货币贬值与世界动荡，却不知该如何是好。

Like, I'm not once again, this is not financial advice, but like, if you're sitting there and you're trying not to lose your money and you're looking at debasement happening and you're looking at chaos in the world and you don't really know what to do.

这七家中的五家，我看着它们就想，谷歌能糟糕到什么程度呢？

Those five of seven, I'm looking at those and I'm like, okay, how bad could it get for Google?

谷歌拥有庞大的资金储备。

Google's got a massive war chest.

它们处于非常有利的地位。

They're sitting in a great position.

苹果也处于非常有利的地位。

Apple's sitting in a great position.

亚马逊同样处于非常有利的地位。

Amazon's sitting in a great position.

它们大多具有抗衰退能力。

They're mostly recession resistant.

我认为市场可能在误判，但市场几乎把它们当作避险型交易来定价。

I think they might be trading and maybe the market is wrong about it, but the market is almost pricing them as a risk off type of trade.

市场就像在说，我只要投资它们，把钱放那儿就稳了。

They're like, I'm just gonna index to them, put my money there and I should be good.

那么，这种想法很疯狂吗？

Well, is that crazy thought?

不，我认为，

No, I think that,

我的意思是，我可能会稍微换个说法，但我绝对认为这是对的。

I mean, I would maybe phrase it a little differently, but I definitely think that's right.

就像方向上，标普500里最大的公司现在实际上就像是每个人的储蓄账户。

Like in, directionality, like the biggest companies in the S and P are effectively like everyone's savings account now.

而且，你知道这很有趣，因为它们曾经都是现金流机器，资产负债表坚如堡垒。

And, you know, it's funny because like they're all, you know, they used to be cash flow machines, with massive fortress balance sheets.

而今年其中很多公司正以越来越不透明的方式大幅加杠杆，来资助数据中心的建设。

And now this year they've a lot of them are like really levering up in increasingly like opaque ways to fund the the data center build out.

所以这算是这些企业背后叙事中一个有趣的发展。

So that's just kind of a funny, you know, development in the narrative behind those businesses.

但我确实认为这是其中很重要的一部分。

But I I definitely think that's that's a big piece of it.

比如，人们已经被训练成在大盘股下跌时买入。

Like, people have been trained to to buy the dip on large cap stocks.

这种策略自金融危机以来效果极佳，尤其是过去十年间。

It's worked extremely well for the last basically, since financial crisis and certainly for the last ten years.

而且我认为更关键的是，与其说人们把它视为避险资产，不如说是因为根本没有其他选择。

And I think even more so, I don't know that it's necessarily that people see it as like a risk off asset as much as it's like kind of there is no alternative.

是啊。

Yeah.

如果你认为金融压制即将来临，就不会持有债券。

You're not gonna own bonds if you think there's financial repression coming.

当然前提是你不是需要当前收入的退休人士，对吧？

And assuming you're not like a retiree who needs like the current income, right?

就是说，你会想减持债券。

Like, you wanna kinda de weight bonds.

所以，如果你不信任比特币，那你的选择基本就是黄金和大盘股了。

So, if you don't believe in Bitcoin, well, your options are like gold and large cap stocks.

因为小盘股更难评估

Because, like, smaller cap stocks, harder to underwrite

但具体来说，前五大

But specifically, like, top five.

对

Yeah.

没错

Right.

正是如此

Exactly.

你会集中投资于那些最大的品牌

Like, they're you're gonna concentrate to the biggest brand names that

大盘股

have large cap.

更像是超大盘股

It's like mega cap.

超大盘股票

Mega cap stocks

那些占据市场主导地位的企业，基本上就像垄断或双头垄断一样，在西方世界增长最快、甚至是唯一增长的领域——至少从工业增长领域来看，就是数据中心建设和人工智能应用，以及更广泛的科技行业。

that have the dominant market position that are basically like monopolies slash like duopolies in in like the fastest growing the only really growing sector in like the Western world, right, is like, at least from an the only like industrial growing sector is, like, data center build out and AI leverage and then, like, tech more generally.

所以这就是你集中投资的地方。

So that's where you concentrate.

但我认为，具体来说，市场正越来越清楚地意识到特朗普政府的计划。

But I think, like, specifically too, there's this, like I do think the market is becoming more and more aware of what the plan is from the Trump administration.

我认为这个计划基本上非常明确，就是要让经济过热，正如贝斯曼所说，通过增长来解决债务问题。

And I think that plan is basically, like, pretty explicitly to run it hot, to, as Bessman has said, grow our way out of the debt.

你已经看到了今年早些时候通过的那项重大法案。

You've seen the one big beautiful bill that got passed earlier this year.

其中很多措施将在2026年生效。

That's gonna have a lot of things that kick in in '26.

而且，特朗普很可能会在美联储安插某个唯命是从的亲信，作为他的应声虫。

And, you know, Trump is likely going to institute a a sycophant, of some sort at the Fed who's gonna be his yes man.

他们将会降低利率，并让美联储配合财政部的需求，因为归根结底，主权债务总会得到融资。

He they're gonna get rates lower and they're gonna get the Fed to accommodate, the what the treasury needs because, like, at the end of the day, like, the sovereign's gonna get funded.

要知道，财政部手握实权而美联储没有。

They have you know, the treasury has the guns and the Fed doesn't.

所以无论如何，财政部总能得到它需要的。

So, like, treasury gonna gonna get what it needs one way or the other.

资金可能会通过商业银行体系流动。

That may flow through the commercial banking system.

也可能是通过美联储。

Maybe it's the fed.

谁知道呢？

Who knows?

但无论如何，我认为人们正在关注这一点，并看到这种货币贬值交易正在发生。

But in any case, I think people are looking at that, and they're looking at this debasement trade's happening.

他们将实施金融压制政策。

They're gonna do financial oppression.

他们将在现有的巨额债务负担上继续加码。

They're gonna run it hot on an existing massive debt burden.

好吧，我需要持有一些非债券资产。

Well, I need to own something that's not bonds.

而且我想持有的可能是那些大到不能倒、对维持经济热度战略至关重要的资产，目前看来就是那些超大型人工智能股票。

And I'd like to maybe own something that is basically getting to the point of being like too big to fail and key to the strategy of being able to run it hot, which at this point is like mega cap AI stocks.

对吧？

Right?

比如，OpenAI的首席财务官萨姆·奥特曼几周前就试探性地提出过，OpenAI的基础建设可能需要联邦政府兜底，因为实在太烧钱了。

Like, you know, Sam Altman, CFO at OpenAI, kind of a few weeks ago floated the idea of OpenAI getting, like, a federal backstop for all their build out because it's so capital intensive.

虽然后来她收回了这个说法，但这明显是个试探性气球。

And she kinda walked it back later, but it definitely seemed like a trial balloon.

大卫·萨克斯几周前发推说人工智能基础建设对GDP增长有多重要，我们承受不起倒退的代价，否则就会陷入衰退。

David Sachs tweeted a couple weeks ago about how vital the AI build out was to GDP growth and that we can't afford to go backwards or we'll have a recession.

所以我觉得人们看到这些就会说：这些家伙简直是在明牌告诉你他们的玩法。

And so I think people are looking at that as well saying like, so these guys are explicitly telling they're giving the game away.

他们这是在告诉我们，别再玩狗狗币了。

They're telling us like, no more Doge.

我们提前好几个月就把狗狗币给关了。

We shut Doge down, like, you know, months early.

计划就是大举支出，希望有足够的财政刺激能让GDP增速超过债务负担增长，从而补贴持续的财政赤字。

The plan is to, spend away and hope that there's enough fiscal impulse to, for GDP to outpace, the growth and debt burden and to subsidize ongoing deficits.

特朗普昨天公开说：'我看不出为什么我们不能实现25%的GDP增长'。

Trump is out there telling like, yesterday, Trump said, like, I I don't see why we can't have 25% GDP growth.

人们都听到了。

People see that.

我觉得他们需要的是...某种总体策略，来应对这种环境下该把资金投向哪里的问题。

And I think it's like, they need, like, a a general, like, a way to respond in terms of just where where do I move my capital in that environment.

但具体来看，似乎有几个行业被点名是维持经济运转的唯一关键行业。

But then also like specifically, it seems like these several industries are getting called out as like the only industries that matter to keep the economy going.

而其中最关键的几家公司就是谷歌、Meta、亚马逊、英伟达，以及剩下七巨头中的其他几家。

And like the companies that are most critical to that happening are Google, Meta, Amazon, Nvidia, and the the rest of the next seven and a few other

基本上就是那些大到不能倒的大型股票交易。

big large too big stocks to fail trade, basically.

是啊。

Yeah.

没错。

Exactly.

就像，存在一种替代方案/大到不能倒的机制在碰撞，我认为这是其中的重要部分。

Like, there is it's there is an alternative slash too big to fail kinda colliding, and I think that's a big piece of it.

人们可以通过长期持有比特币更清晰地表达这种押注或观点。

People could, I think, express a lot of that bet more cleanly, or or that, that thesis more cleanly by just owning Bitcoin for the long term.

但我觉得这也是其中的一部分，就是这种'别无选择'(Tina)效应。

But I I think that's a that's a part of it too is like this this Tina effect.

嗯。

Yeah.

我不知道。

I don't know.

这真是个有趣的场景。

It's an interesting it's an interesting scenario.

关于量化宽松这部分，美联储再次降息了。

So the on the QE piece, the fed just cut rates again.

比特币有点...我我有点反应然后立刻暴跌。

Bitcoin kind of, I I kind of reacted and then immediately dumped.

你对这个怎么看？

What is your what is your read on that?

是啊。

Yeah.

这完全是巴特式价格波动，上下都是这样。

It's just it's just Bart price action all the way, both up and down there.

你遇到了巴特行情。

You got your Bart.

你遇到了反向行情。

You got your reverse.

我们涨到了90多，大概四五次。

We hit like 90 four or five.

人们都在说，牛市回来了，直奔1.26美元。

People are like, the bull market's back in session straight to $1.26.

然后我们就暴跌了。

And then we dumped.

是啊。

Yeah.

我...我上周在Oster上发过贴，也可能是这周初。

I, I I posted on on Oster last week, or maybe early this week.

我看到一些，好像是比特币杂志的帖子说'比特币飙升至92,800美元，牛市又回来了'之类的。

I saw some, like I think it was, like, a Bitcoin mag post about, like, Bitcoin rockets to 92,800 doll You know, the bull market's back in swing.

我当时就想，除非人们不再为3%的随机波动就发那种过度兴奋的推文，否则牛市根本不会真正重启。

And I was just like, we are not gonna really restart the bull market until people stop posting, like, overly excited tweets about 3% moves to, like, random price thresholds that don't mean anything.

不过确实，比特币在FOMC会议期间的波动，你知道的，向来都是出了名的没谱——上下都是骗局。

But, yeah, I mean, Bitcoin's moves around, like, FOMC meetings are, like, famously kind of, you know, not super helpful and scammy scammy both ways.

比如，做空和做多的人都会被爆仓。

Like, you get shorts taken out and longs taken out.

大多数情况下，折腾完一圈后，价格基本又回到原点。

And mostly when it's all said and done, you kinda end up right where you were.

所以我不确定比特币的这种反应有多少值得解读的。

But so I don't know if there's a lot to read into from Bitcoin's reaction.

但你这样会惹恼金融推特上的很多人，我知道你其实很在意这个。

But you're gonna you're gonna piss off a lot of people on, financial Twitter, which I know you really you're you're really worried about that.

他们正在收听我们的节目。

They're listening they're listening to their show.

所以说话要小心点，知道吗？

So be careful what do you say?

现在收听我们节目的观众可是有整整好几个人呢。

There are there are literally ones of them listening to the show right now.

不过，

But,

我喜欢金融推特。

I like FinTwit.

我...我以前是个潜水员。

I'm I was I was a lurker.

是啊。

Yeah.

好吧。

Okay.

所以，你知道，那群人里会有很多声音说量化宽松并未重启，因为量化宽松是指通过购买长期资产来刺激风险偏好。

So, you know, like, there will be a lot of people in that crowd who will say that, you know, QE hasn't restarted because QE is long duration asset purchases intended to stimulate risk appetite.

对。

Yeah.

这就像是语义之争。

It's like a semantics thing.

对吧？

Right?

是的。

Yeah.

你知道吗？

And you know what?

这很公平。

That's fair enough.

但归根结底，美联储会议的结果是，除了降息之外，美联储还表示量化紧缩即将结束——这我们早就知道了。

But at the end of the day, so what happened at the Fed meeting was, in addition to the rate cut, the Fed said, you know, quantitative tightening is ending, which we knew.

他们宣布将以每月400亿美元的节奏购买短期美国国债，每月购买400亿美元的短期美国国债。

They announced they're going to go to a cadence of buying, $40,000,000,000, a month of short dated US treasuries.

但对他们来说，短期显然意味着期限最长三年或十年。

But short dated, means for them apparently up to three or tenors.

所以，这比人们预期的期限更长。

So, like, that's that's more duration than people thought.

因此，这在某种程度上是偏向鸽派的。

So that was, like, incrementally dovish.

但他们声称这样做是为了进行储备管理购买（RMPs）。

But they're gonna be doing that ostensibly as a way to, for reserve management purchases, so RMPs.

这应该是个新创造的缩写词。

So a new I believe that's a new acronym for them.

他们之前可能用过这个说法，但通常这在12个月周期内是方向性看涨的。

They might have used that before, but, usually it's like directionally bullish over like a twelve month period.

在美联储推出新字母汤工具后，未来12个月的表现通常都相当不错。

The the trailing twelve month or I guess the leading twelve month performance after, a new fed alphabet soup, facility is created is, like, generally pretty good.

他们这么做是因为正如我早前提到的，银行系统储备金开始趋紧，低于普遍认为的3万亿美元阈值。

So they're gonna do this because as I kind of referenced earlier, reserves in the banking system have started to get tighter, below, like, what is commonly cited as, like, a $3,000,000,000,000 threshold.

这正在对回购市场及银行间拆借利率产生各种影响，如果你关注这类专业内容就能观察到，而美联储显然非常重视这点。

That's having all sorts of, impacts on, the the repo market and kind of, interbank plumbing rates, that if you're like wonkish and like follow this stuff, you can see, and they're definitely that's something they really care about.

所以需要关注这个现象。

So, looking at that.

但无论如何，现在政策立场已从量化紧缩转向——不再让资产负债表随证券到期自然收缩，而是开始净购买证券，主要是国债。

But anyway, you're you're now flipping to a a stance of not quantitative tightening, so not letting the balance sheet shrink naturally as, securities mature, but, actually going to purchasing, on net securities outright, and treasury securities.

你可以说，这并没有从市场中移除久期，但如果这与美联储同时更激进地减少长期债券发行、大幅增加短期债券发行相配合，再加上美联储转身直接补贴大量这类发行，那么这实际上就是在净额基础上逐步抽走了原本会存在于市场中的久期。

And you could say like, well, that's not taking duration out of the market, but what happened if if that's coordinated at the same time with the Fed shifting even more aggressively away from issuing at the long end at all and issuing a lot more at the short end, and then they've got the Fed turning around and subsidizing directly a lot of, that issuance, then, like, that that is absolutely, like, on net incrementally taking duration that otherwise would have been there out of the market.

这就像是从长期到短期的久期轮换。对。

It's like a duration rotation from long term to short Yeah.

所以过去二十年里一直有关于这方面的争论，比如你记得十年前或十五年前的'扭转操作'吗？

So and there there have been debates on this throughout, like, the last twenty years of, like, Operation Twist, if you remember that from, like, ten or fifteen years ago.

你知道，什么才算是量化宽松？

You know, what counts as QE?

说实话，我不觉得这是

Like, frankly, I don't think is like this

这是我们在《兔子洞回顾》里常开的玩笑

is the joke we make on rabbit hole recap.

除非Marty认证是比特币抛售，否则就不算真正的比特币抛售

Like, it's not a Bitcoin dump unless Marty certifies at a Bitcoin dump.

是啊

Yeah.

对。

Right.

确实如此。

Exactly.

是啊。

Yeah.

这纯粹是毫无意义的语义游戏。

It's a it's a it's a bullshit semantics that doesn't really matter.

但我更想问的是，作为一个把所有资产都押在比特币上的人，你觉得我们什么时候能看到效果？

But my question to you more is as someone who holds all my assets in Bitcoin, know, when do we see it?

比特币应该会对这一举措做出积极反应，对吧？

Like, Bitcoin should react positively to this move, right?

没错。

Yeah.

其实问题始终在于，有哪些相互竞争的因素

I mean, it's always a question of, like, what are the competing

逆风 是啊。

headwinds Yeah.

请告诉我我一个月后就会发财。

Please tell me that I'm gonna be rich in a month.

这始终是一个关于逆风和顺风相互较量的问题。

It's always a question of the competing headwinds and tailwinds.

而且我认为，就像我们刚才讨论的一些话题仍然存在很多不确定性，这可能会在短期内抑制风险偏好。

And I think there's still, like, a lot of uncertainty around some of the topics we discussed a second ago that will probably put a damper on risk appetite in the near term.

尤其是在年底，如果一切处于恰到好处的状态，你可能会看到类似圣诞行情的情况。

Especially in the year end, it's like you sometimes get if everything's, like, in a Goldilocks zone, you can get, like, a Santa rally kind of at the end of the year.

也许我们会看到这种情况。

Maybe we'll see that.

但是 但是

But But

还会有税务抛售。

there's gonna be tax selling too.

是啊。

Yeah.

除了税务抛售，大型资产管理公司通常的奖金发放是基于从1月1日到12月31日整年的业绩表现。

There's there's tax selling, and then there's also just, like, big asset managers often get paid on, you know, their bonuses are based on, like, what happened through the end of the year or, like, through, say, Jan one to December 31.

对吧？

Right?

所以，尤其是那些业绩表现良好的机构，在年底最后几周里，从边际效应来看，他们并没有动力去承担额外的风险。

So, especially anyone with, like, a good year to protect, like, probably on the margin is not incentivized to take incremental risk in the last few weeks of the year.

总的来说，我不认为短期内会出现大幅上涨的情况。

So in general, like, I don't know that I expect some massive, like, pump in the near term.

我

I

我有个大学同学在金融圈混得风生水起。

have a good college friend finance bro, done quite well for himself.

他是少数几个听我建议买比特币的大学朋友之一。

He's one of the few college friends that listen to me about Bitcoin.

他坚信圣诞节奖金效应——那些底层金融兄弟们在1月左右拿到年终奖后就会疯狂投资。

And he strongly believes in the Christmas bonus bump of all the lower level finance bros like they get their Christmas bonus like January or something like that.

然后他们就一股脑儿全押进去。

And then they just ape into sets.

是啊。

Yeah.

我的意思是，我觉得可能...我也不确定。

I mean, I I think there are probably, like I don't know.

也许有几十号人会这么干。

Maybe there are dozens of people doing that.

很多金融从业者拿到奖金后——我就认识一个家伙每年奖金季都会给自己买块2万美元的新表。

A lot of, finance bros are getting their bonuses, and then I literally knew a guy who every bonus season would go buy himself, like, a new $20,000 watch.

这种事情确实挺常见的。

So there's a lot of that that will happen too.

所以这个

So the

嗯，他涉足比特币大概有九、十年了，可能有那么三四个一月份我收到过这样的短信：哟，圣诞奖金到账了。

Well, he's been in he's been in Bitcoin probably nine, ten years, and maybe three or four Januarys I've gotten a text like, yo, Christmas bonuses.

因为另外六次根本没发。

Because the other six times it didn't happen.

但那四个一月份，他都会特意提醒我。

But those four January's, he let he reminded me.

不过我觉得，到年底了，也不指望能发多少。

But I think, you know, into the end of the year, don't know that I expect a ton.

而且我们早就知道要收紧政策，都好几个月了。

And it's also like we've known for a couple months, like, tightening.

至少我觉得，这次会议结束前一个月就能预见到。

I I think at least, like, a month that this was gonna end at this meeting.

所以，是啊，我想

So, yeah, I think

呃，我也不清楚。

Well, I don't know.

Polymarket市场的情况真是五花八门。

Polymarket was, like, all over the place.

这有点...有点意思，因为真的吗？

It was, like, a little bit interest it's interesting because Really?

你现在有了更纯粹的价格指标，通过预测市场——那些流动性预测市场。当然你可以观察资产，可以看各种间接指标来判断决策是否已被定价，比如你直接有个赌盘押注美联储会降息多少？

You have, like, a pure you have a more pure priced in metric with the prediction markets, the liquid prediction markets now, like, of course, like you can look at assets, you can look at all these indirect metrics to see like if a decision is priced in, like, if you literally have a betting market that is how much will the fed cut?

或者他们到底会不会降息？

Or will they cut?

你这不就获得更客观的衡量标准了吗？

Do you have like a more objective measurement?

当时数据显示25个基点的概率有80%或75%。

And it was like, you know, 20 it's like a point 25%, 25 bps was like 80% or 75%.

然后概率又跌到了‘维持不变’。

Then it fell to no change.

当时和‘不变’选项几乎不相上下，直到大约一个月前概率又突然回升。

Like, it was neck and neck with no change, and then it popped back up maybe like a month ago.

是啊。

Yeah.

嗯，就是，那个对。

Well, like, the yeah.

我知道降息这事有点像赌运气，但量化紧缩结束我觉得更确定些，因为我记得他们大约一个月前刚宣布过，或者鲍威尔在讲话中提到过。

The cut I know was like hit or miss, but the QT ending, I think, was more, was more certain because I believe that they just announced they were gonna do that, or Palace said in the speech, like a month ago.

但无论如何，市场共识明显倾向于认为这轮紧缩即将结束，很可能某种量化宽松重启或储备管理调整会开始实施。

But in any case, like, the consensus, like, definitely drifted toward, like, this this being over and probably, like, some sort of, like, QE restart or, like, you know, reserve management restart happening.

这个嘛，

Well,

我是说，如果人们普遍预期联邦基金利率会保持不变，这是否某种程度上意味着他们认为量化宽松不会启动？

I mean, if people thought there was gonna be a no change, if the majority opinion thought there was gonna be a no change on federal funds rate, doesn't that kind of imply that they thought QE would not be starting?

也许吧，但这两者并不一定有直接关联。

Maybe, but they're not necessarily directly related.

它们是两种完全不同的传导机制。顺便说，

They're two totally different, like, transmission mechanisms for By the way,

我现在正在看Poly。

I'm look I'm looking at Poly right now.

是啊。

Yeah.

不。

No.

它在11月21日转为无变动。

It flipped to no change November 21.

不是吗？

Didn't it?

但它马上又翻转了，对吧？

But it flips, like, right back, didn't it?

我不知道。

I don't know.

你正在看图表。

You're looking at the chart.