快钱 9/25/25

泰勒·斯威夫特刚刚结束了破纪录的Eris巡演。

Taylor Swift just came off her record breaking Eris tour.

她还能做些什么来超越这个成就呢？

What can she do to top it?

这位流行巨星宣布了一张全新专辑。

The pop superstar announcing a brand new album.

基本上她碰过的每样东西，人们都会知道。

Literally everything she touches, people won't know about.

《斯威夫特效应》。CNBC将于10月4日周六东部时间十点首播。

The Swift Effect. CNBC premieres Saturday, October 4 ten eastern.

这里是纳斯达克市场现场，位于纽约市时代广场的中心，为您带来《快钱》节目。今晚节目内容包括：TikTok交易最新进展，谁在收购这家社交媒体公司？这对传统媒体意味着什么？以及CarMax的现状。

Live from the Nasdaq market site in the heart of New York City's Times Square, this is fast money. Here's what's on tap tonight. The TikTok on TikTok, the latest developments on the deal for the social media company. Who's buying in? What's it mean for legacy And CarMax concerns.

这家二手车零售商的股价跌至疫情低谷以来的最低水平。最新财报揭示了最拮据消费者的消费能力如何？此外还有大型零售商的财报，我们将深入分析好市多的最新业绩。星巴克正在精简员工规模。小盘股的下一步走势会怎样？

Shares of the used vehicle retailer hitting levels not seen since the depths of the pandemic. What the latest earnings say about the strength of the most strapped consumer? Plus big box earnings, we'll dig into the latest results from Costco. Starbucks slims down its workforce. And what's next for small caps?

图表大师在此为您解析近期表现强劲的罗素指数后续走势。我是梅丽莎·李，今晚在纳斯达克V演播室为您带来现场报道。蒂姆·西摩、卡特·沃斯、丹·内森和史蒂夫·巴索也将参与讨论。我们首先关注尚未完全敲定的TikTok交易——特朗普总统今天下午签署行政命令，为以美国投资者群体（其中包含多位特朗普重要支持者）收购中国字节跳动旗下TikTok美国资产铺平道路。

The chart master is here to lay out what is next for the recently rallying Russell. I'm Melissa Lee, coming to you live from Studio V at the Nasdaq on the desk tonight. Tim Seymour, Carter Worth, Dan Nathan, and Steve Basso. We start off with the not quite done deal for TikTok. President Trump signing an executive order this afternoon, paving the way for a group largely made up of American investors and some of Trump's biggest supporters to buy TikTok's US assets from China's ByteDance.

我们的埃蒙·贾弗斯正在白宫带来最新动态。埃蒙。

Our Eamon Javers is at the White House with the very latest. Eamon.

梅丽莎，确实如此。总统此刻仍在椭圆办公室讲话，但就在不久前，他正式签署了这项行政令（抱歉，我是指椭圆办公室签署的政令）。据我们了解，该政令确认此次交易符合关于TikTok及其中国所有权问题的国家安全法律要求。这意味着我们可能即将看到最终协议达成。总统和副总统还透露了若干交易细节，最关键的是交易估值问题。以下是副总统的表态：

Melissa, that's right. The president is still speaking in the Oval Office, but just a short time ago, he did sign that Oval that order in the Oval Office, excuse me, which we are told certifies that this deal does satisfy the national security concerns that are in the law about TikTok and its Chinese ownership. So that does lead us to the point where we might be able to see a finalized deal here. The president and the vice president offering a couple of new details here on this deal, including, all importantly, the valuation of the deal. Here's what the vice president had to say.

公司估值约为140亿美元。我们认为这对投资者是个良机，但最终投资决策权在他们手中。最重要的是，该协议能保障美国用户数据安全，确保TikTok服务持续可用。关于备受关注的算法问题，协议明确美国实体与美国投资者将实际掌控算法运作。

The company will be valued around $14,000,000,000. We actually think this is a good deal for investors, but ultimately, the investors are gonna make the determination about what they wanna invest in and what they think is a proper value. The most important thing is that it does protect Americans' data security and ensures TikTok is still accessible. And on this question of the algorithm, which heard this a lot, what this deal ensures is that the American entity and the American investors will actually control the algorithm.

梅丽莎，当被问及美国政府是否会从TikTok美国业务中抽取收入分成或收取费用时，总统对此问题避实就虚。他表示'我们将公布相关安排'。但更引人关注的是，当被问及是否希望交易完成后（新东家包括其政治盟友埃里森、默多克等保守派媒体科技界人士）通过算法放大MAGA内容时，总统表示并非必需，强调平台将对所有用户保持公平。戴维·费伯早前报道披露的主要投资者——甲骨文、银湖资本及阿布扎比MGX将合计持股45%。

The president was also asked whether or not The United States would take a percentage of the revenue here or any kind of fee from TikTok US? And he he kinda danced around that question, Melissa. He said we're gonna be announcing some things, and we'll get to that. But he was also asked, this question about whether or not he wants the new owners of TikTok who will be, once this deal concludes. A lot of his political allies, you know, Ellison, Murdoch, and other familiar names on the conservative side of the media sphere and technology sphere will be the owners of this new entity.

总统特别强调，此举使该平台脱离中国控制，美国方面将获得算法安全保障权，确保本土用户使用安全。梅丽莎。

And the president was asked if he wants them to boost the magnification of the TikTok algorithm and push more MAGA content to TikTok users. He said, ultimately, he didn't necessarily, need that. He said it's gonna be fair for everybody as you look here at David Faber's reporting from earlier today of who the main investors are expected to be, who will hold a combined 45% of the company, Oracle, Silver Lake Silver Lake, and MGX, which is an Abu Dhabi based entity. So the president emphasizing that this removes this platform from Chinese control. Americans will have the ability to secure this algorithm and make it safe for American users, Melissa.

但必须明确一点，埃蒙。这绝非板上钉钉的交易。讨论交易条款和新公司归属时，所谓的'卖方'却完全缺席谈判桌，这种情况实在蹊跷。

Let's be clear though, Eamon. This is not a done deal. I mean, it seems strange to think about a deal, and we're talking about the terms of deal, who will own this new company, and yet the quote unquote seller is nowhere here in the picture.

是的。卖家不在现场。顺便说一句，买家也不在场。我们这里有很多政治人物在场。所以这不是交易签约仪式。

Yeah. The seller's not in the room. Neither, by the way, were the buyers in the room. We had a a lot of political figures in the room here. So this was not the deal signing.

这只是签署了一项行政命令，证明该交易在法律上是合规的。我们等待的是标的资产的实际交易。不清楚何时能达成。尽管大卫早些时候做了出色的报道，我们仍不清楚所有投资者的身份。现在我们知道的多了一些。

This was just the signing of an EO that certifies that the deal is kosher under the law. What we're waiting for is an actual transaction of the underlying asset. Not clear when we're gonna get that. We still don't know all the investors here despite David's great reporting from earlier in the day. You know, we now know a little bit more.

我们知道这个阿布扎比实体，但还不清楚参与这笔交易的所有投资者。所以我认为这是关键的一点。另一个关键点是他们如何得出TikTok美国业务140亿美元的估值。我们需要看看其依据。但会有怀疑者审视此事并提出质疑。

We know about this Abu Dhabi entity, but we don't know, all of the investors who are getting in on this deal. And so so, you know, I think that's a key piece of this. The other key piece of this is how do they come to this $14,000,000,000 valuation for TikTok US. We'll have to see the rationale for that. But they're gonna be skeptics here who will look at this and say, wait a second.

这是否意味着特朗普总统的政治盟友获得了优惠交易，以仅140亿美元的低估值拿下一家对美国社会极具影响力、将独占美国市场的互联网媒体公司？围绕这些问题仍有诸多待解之处。

Are these political allies of president Trump being given a sweetheart deal with a very low valuation at 14,000,000,000 for a media organization, an Internet organization that is so influential in American life and is gonna have exclusive, really, access to the American market? Lot of questions around all that still to be answered.

好的。埃蒙，谢谢你。白宫的埃蒙·贾维斯报道。顺便提一下，TikTok母公司字节跳动最新估值超过3000亿美元。而这次TikTok美国业务的交易额仅为140亿美元。

Alright. Eamon, thank you. Eamon Jarvis from the White House. By the way, ByteDance, which is the parent company of TikTok, its most recent valuation exceeds $300,000,000,000. This is a $14,000,000,000 deal for The US division of TikTok.

你怎么看？

What do you think?

相当令人震惊。想想五年前总统签署行政令要封禁TikTok。五年后的今天，你会认为这家公司的价值应该高得多。仅在美国市场，他们的收入可能是Snap的四五倍。

It's pretty shocking. I mean, if you just wanna kinda take a look five years ago, the president signed an executive order to ban TikTok. And so here we are five years later, and you would think that this is a company that would be worth a whole heck of a lot more. They probably have four or five times the revenue that Snap does. That's here in The United States.

Snap的企业价值高达150亿美元。想想看，这意味着愿意出价超过140亿的买家绝不在少数。很可能存在400亿美元的报价等着收购它，所以如果交易以当前条件达成，我会非常震惊。因为单看中国和字节跳动，他们根本没有出售的义务。

Snap has a $15,000,000,000 enterprise value. I mean, just think of that. So there's no shortage of folks that would outbid 14. There's probably a $40,000,000,000 bid out there for this thing, so I'd be really shocked if it gets done like this. Because if you just think about the Chinese and bite dance, I mean, they have no obligation to sell this thing.

他们可能面临禁令，但我的意思是，针对这项资产的报价远高于140亿美元。

They they can get banned, but I mean, there is a bid much higher than $14,000,000,000 for this thing.

这个观点很公允。我认为关键问题在于——我们仍不清楚算法所有权归属。虽然我们知道有关于算法处理规则，比如甲骨文将如何管理防火墙等事宜。但可以说，这家公司的真正价值在于算法。若无法拥有算法所有权，再来看参与各方的立场...

I I that's fair. And and I would guess argue we don't really know who still then owns the algorithm. And and we know that there's rules around how the algorithm is handled, how essentially Oracle is gonna manage a firewall and all that stuff. But one could make an argument that the real value of this company is in the algorithm. And so if you don't own the algorithm but take it back to the players involved.

毫无疑问，甲骨文目前占据绝对优势地位。这笔交易对甲骨文意义重大，不仅因其身处核心决策圈。记得吗？TikTok其实是他们云服务的首个重要客户，早期就带来巨额利润和多样化服务。即便不考虑拉里·埃里森与白宫的关系，这对甲骨文也是天大的机遇。

There's no question that Oracle is is to me in the catbird seat. And there's a reason why this deal makes sense for Oracle, not just because they seem to be part of the inner circle. But if you remember, this this TikTok was really their first major customer in terms of their cloud services. I mean, they were the dominant nascent early customer, very lucrative, lot of services attached to it. And this is a big, big deal for Oracle, even independent of of, you know, call it the relationship that Larry Ellison has with the White House.

所以目前来看，协议明显偏向甲骨文。但正如我们所说，这仅满足美国方面的诉求，并不代表中国或字节跳动认可此方案。

So I think right now, this is very Oracle friendly. But as we all have said, this satisfies US deals and dynamics. It does not necessarily indicate that the Chinese or that that ByteDance is here.

没错。中方并未批准这笔交易。很多细节仍是未知数，关于算法的观点非常犀利——据说字节跳动会将算法租赁给美国TikTok使用，之后再重新开发。

Right. Or the Chinese has blessed this deal. No. A lot of things are sort of unknown, and I think the point on the algorithm is a is a very good one because supposedly, ByteDance will lease US TikTok, the algorithm. It will then recreate it.

复制它。

Copy it.

重新训练它。是的。但谁知道那会是什么样子？如果效果和旧算法一样呢？因此，或许应该对这个资产进行贬值评估。

Retrain it. Yeah. But who knows what that is going to be? What if it's gonna be as effective as the old algorithm? And so therefore, there maybe there should be a degraded valuation for this asset.

没错。然后当你审视时，对Snap该怎么处理？我认为应该趁此机会买入Snap。按照Tim的观点，也应该买入Oracle。我不确定负面情绪是否合理——你看Snap今年至今已下跌23%。

Yeah. And and then when you look at it, what do you do with Snap and what do you do about it? I think you buy Snap off of this. You buy to Tim's point Oracle off of this. I'm I'm not sure if the negativity that if you look at Snap is down 23% for year year to date.

它们的使用场景不同，孩子们用这两个应用做不同的事。TikTok是刷视频，Snap是发快照。你实际上是在...你实际上是在向某人发送消息。

It they're used like, kids use these for two different things. TikTok is scrolling. Snap is snapping. So there there's you're you're literally sending messages to to you're literally sending messages to someone.

发快照。对。所以你是在...

Snapping. Yeah. So so you're

向某人发送快照。但我觉得这是两种不同的使用场景，虽然它被用户观看量打击了。不过Snap的用户基数足够大，尽管近期已从低点反弹，股价应该还能继续上涨。

snapping to somebody. But I think there's two different use cases, and it's been slammed by by, you know, eyeballs viewing. But I think there's enough eyeballs for Snap to where the stock is even though it's off the lows recently to actually rally further from here.

就估值而言，今天有什么数据吗？关键不在于现状，而在于如果140亿估值偏低，未来可能值多少。举个例子，Ralph Lauren市值180亿，这已经很糟糕了。而William Sonoma卖搅拌机、打蛋器和搅拌碗的，市值都有240亿。

I mean, terms of valuation, is there anything written today? It's just not what I do about what this prospectively is worth if 14,000,000,000 is light. I mean, just to put in context, I mean, Ralph Lauren is 18,000,000,000. This all sucks. And William Sonoma is 24,000,000,000, and they sell blenders and egg beaters and mixing bowls.

显然，这140

Surely, the 14

我想我们从来没讨论过打蛋器这种东西

is I don't think we've ever talked about egg beaters ever

关于快速行动 总得有人第一个吃螃蟹。但你们不是研究这个的吗？肯定有卖方分析师被问倒了——TikTok到底值多少钱？

on fast Someone's gotta do this first. But what what you guys study this stuff. Right? And you and there must be sell siders who are put out. What is TikTok worth?

如果不止140亿，那肯定值更多。不对。

If it's not worth 14, it's gotta be worth a lot more. No.

要我说...正常人都会这么想吧。

I would I mean, one would think so.

人们可能会这么想。

One would think.

考虑到它的影响力范围、在公共领域的影响力，以及TikTok催生的所有百万富翁级别的网红，人们可能会这么认为。

One would think so in terms of the reach that it has, the influence in in public, the public sphere, all the millionaires that TikTok has spawned in terms of influencers.

那么它究竟在哪里

So then where is

那四个？关于14这个数字的来源有什么说法吗，还是只是推特上随意选的？

the four? It was there anything about where the 14 came from, or is that just an arbitrary Twitter?

我认为是JD·万斯提出的。

I think from JD Vance.

不知道原因

Don't know why

我记得埃隆在推特融资时估值大约是800亿美元左右。考虑到他们的广告收入基础其实小得多——要知道TikTok才是广告收入巨头，根本不缺这类收益，还有电商收入。

I think Elon raised money in Twitter at like 80,000,000,000 or something like that. And if you think of the revenue base, you know they have again a much lower revenue base based on advertising. Know, TikTok is obviously the thing. There's no shortage of those advertising revenue. There's e commerce revenue.

这个平台是内容创作者的首选。作为孩子沉迷TikTok的家长，我巴不得他们的推荐算法失效让孩子们失去兴趣。想想这个平台现在占据的注意力规模，根本不是Snap能比的——你刚才提到Snap...

There's you know they have. This is the platform where creators want to go. And I'll just say one thing is a parent of kids who probably spend way too much time on TikTok. I would love for that algo to be degraded for the kids not to enjoy this thing anymore, because if you think of the attention that is commanded by this platform right now and it is not snap. Your point about snapping.

知道现在孩子们怎么用Snap吗？拍个快照发出去就完了，根本没法变现。Snap公司按GAAP标准从未盈利过。纵观社交平台史，月活用户能突破1-2亿的才几个？

You know what the kids do today? They do take a snap and they send it. There's no way to monetize that. I mean literally in snap as a company on a GAAP basis, they've never made any money. And if you think about social platforms, how few have been able to get over 100 or 200,000,000 monthly actives?

屈指可数。所以在我看来，TikTok能以低于1000亿美元估值被收购绝对是块肥肉——前提是算法保留且不受政府监管。不过政府监管迟早会来的。

It's a handful of them, so Tick Tock to me is an amazing asset for anyone to get it under $100,000,000,000 I mean, assuming that the algo is in place and they are literally set to grow in a manner that is not subject to any government oversight. And I mean, there will be a government oversight.

超过100。美国实体的估值是140亿美元。对于TikTok这个品牌来说，总估值是1060亿美元。所以我觉得他们只是随便找了个数字，把1060亿切了一部分出来。

Over a 100. It was the value The US entity is 14,000,000,000. Valuation is 106,000,000,000 for someone for TikTok, for their brand. So so I think they just found out they just divided it and came up with something, an arbitrary number of of a slice of a 106.

而且，你知道，其他地方的讨论暂且不论，但关于Snap的讨论是，目前市场并不相信Snap能实质性加速收入增长。就像丹说的，他们在漏斗中的位置并不重要，问题在于他们无法真正通过广告实现盈利。

And and just, you know, the conversation around other places, but the conversation around Snap is that right now the street doesn't believe snap can meaningfully accelerate revenue. As Dan saying, I mean, it doesn't matter where they sit here, where they sit in the funnel is an inability really to monetize from an ad basis.

关于TikTok交易及其对科技巨头的更广泛影响，我们请来了Jefferies的董事总经理兼高级科技分析师Brent Thill。Brent，很高兴你能来。我们刚得到一个估值数字——美国TikTok值140亿美元，你怎么看？

For more on the tick tock deal and the broader impact on big tech, let's bring in Jeffries, managing director and senior technology analyst, Brent Thill. Brent, great to have you with us. We just got a number in terms of valuation, $14,000,000,000 for US TikTok. What's your take?

这严重低估了。我觉得Carter说得对，这就像用比这更高的市值去买个搅拌机一样疯狂。这个数字肯定是错的。

That's massively undervalued. I think Carter said it well. Like, how do you buy a blender for a higher market cap? This is crazy. I mean, the number's gotta be wrong.

完全说不通。Snap的市值才140亿，而Meta的市值接近2万亿美元。这根本不合理。唯一能解释的就是他们在做一笔划算买卖，准备后期溢价赚取暴利——但就我所见，这完全站不住脚。

It doesn't make any sense. The market cap of Snap is 14. The market cap of Meta, you know, is is close to $2,000,000,000,000. I mean, this doesn't make any sense. So the only way you could read into that is are they getting themselves a good deal and they're gonna mark it up and it's gonna be a huge windfall, but that it makes zero sense from what I can see.

虽然我没有所有数据，但这完全不合逻辑。

And I I don't have access to all the numbers, but it doesn't make any sense.

Brett，我唱个反调。考虑到他们需要重建算法、重新训练算法，用户可能得重新下载应用，期间还会流失用户——即便把这些全算进去，140亿也还是荒谬的数字。

Just to play devil's advocate, Brett. I mean, there is, you know, the possibility that it's not worth as much because they do have to recreate the algorithm. They have to retrain the algorithm. There might be a period where users have to actually download the app again, and they could lose users. I mean, even Grant factoring all of that in 14 makes no sense.

毫无意义。零。我是说，毫无意义。所以，你知道，这是一笔大买卖。对甲骨文来说是一笔大买卖。

No sense. Zero. I mean, no sense. So that, you know, this is a great deal. It's a great deal for Oracle.

他们现在正处于上升期。我们认为最终这场闹剧结束了。这是好事。因为闹剧结束了，他们应该能吸引更多广告商入驻平台。正如我们在社交媒体上所见，只有一种玩法。

They're on a a hot streak now. We think ultimately, the drama's over. This is good. They should be able to attract more advertisers to the platform because the drama's over. As we've seen in social, there's only one play.

我有几个青少年孩子。他们会看Snapchat，但从未被Snapchat推送的内容影响过，所以他们无法变现。我从自己孩子的行为中就能看出来。所有价值和变现都在Instagram上，扎克伯格刚宣布他们的月活用户突破了30亿。

I have teenagers. They look at Snap. They've never been influenced by anything that Snap has sent, so they can't monetize. And I see that through my own teenager's behavior. It's all valued and monetized on Instagram, and Zuck just said that they crossed 3,000,000,000 monthly active users.

所有人都黏在Instagram上。TikTok还有生存空间。但问题在于，广告市场份额是否会被抢占——无论是从电视还是其他社交平台回流到TikTok。我认为答案是肯定的。只是现在还无法确定具体来源。

Everyone's sticking on Instagram. There is room for TikTok. But again, I think that the question is, is there gonna be market share taken from advertisers, whether it's TV or whether it's from other social platforms back to TikTok. And I think the answer is yes. I just can't tell you where it's gonna come from yet.

但毫无疑问，目前大多数用户主要使用三大平台：Meta、TikTok和Snap。我们已亲眼见证，我认为TikTok在商业化方面仍有发展空间。而Snap始终未能突破，这个问题就像老唱片一样反复播放了很久。

But there's no question, there's three platforms really that most are using, Meta, TikTok, and Snap. And I think ultimately, we've seen this. I think there is room for TikTok and monetization. Snap just hasn't been able to do it, and it's been a broken record for a while.

布伦特、蒂姆，我同意你们关于青少年用户的观点，丹也是。现在我们聚焦Instagram，试着讨论其估值问题——但重申一次，是相对于Meta整体其他业务而言的Instagram。能否帮我们理解你们是如何给予Instagram估值溢价的？当前估值背景下，这确实是个典型案例：人们会说Meta过去十八个月估值已大幅提升。但如你所指出的，这主要归功于Instagram，其他业务几乎都望尘莫及。

So Brent, Tim, I agree with you on the teenagers, same with Dan. So shining a bright light on Instagram and trying to kind of talk about valuation and some of the pieces, but again, Instagram relative to other pieces of of Meta overall. Can you help us understand just how you put a premium on that Instagram? And and we're at a place here where on valuation, this has certainly been a story where people have been able to say, well, Meta's certainly come a long way in the valuation in the last eighteen months. But as you point out, it's Instagram and almost everybody else.

请帮我们理解你们具体是如何评估这部分价值的。

So help us understand just how you attach that value.

是的。我们进行了细分分析。从宏观层面看，这家公司的盈利潜力将达到300亿美元。若给予30倍市盈率估值，其市值可达9000亿美元。因此我们仍认为Meta整体还有巨大上涨空间。

Yeah. We disaggregate. Just at a high level, this company is gonna do $30 of earnings power. You put a $30 30 multiple on it, it's $900. So we still believe there's a lot of upside in Meta just overall.

就Instagram而言，它显然是推动用户高参与度的核心动力。我们虽未将其单独拆分估值，但认为分拆或剥离的可能性为零。我们认为它将是整个生态体系的重要组成部分。再看他们在这个平台之外创造的其他资产，广告主不断向我们表示会继续选择Meta平台。事实上我们听闻其市场份额正在蚕食谷歌，因为用户参与度实在太高了。

In terms of Instagram, clearly, it's the driving force that's for the huge engagement. We don't necessarily break it apart, but I don't think that there's any chance of a spin or a divestiture. We think that this is gonna be part part of the franchise. And then you look at all the other assets that they're they're generating beyond just this platform. You know, we think, again, advertisers keep telling us that they're staying with Meta, And we've actually heard market share gains against Google because the engagement is so high.

用户参与度保持高位，广告主持续驻留。连续多个季度以来，广告主都在增加Meta平台的预算而削减其他平台。从其他同业股票的走势就能看出端倪。当然并非全部份额都来自谷歌，但根据我们接触的广告主反馈，谷歌在边际增量上确实未能让他们感到同等兴奋。

The users are engaged. The advertisers stay there. And we've heard this from for now multiple quarters in a row that the advertisers keep spending more on Meta, less on other platforms. You can see it in how the other stocks are acting. And and again, it's not all taken away from Google, but at at at the margin, Google has necessarily, from the advertisers we talked to, been as excited about what they're seeing.

只要广告主持续表示'我们热爱Meta的投资回报率'，我们就保持乐观态度。毕竟30亿月活用户基数摆在那里，正如扎克伯格所说，拥有这样的用户规模自然能吸引广告主入驻平台。

So as long as the advertisers are saying, we love the meta ROI, we're staying positive on it, because again, usage is there. Zoc talked about this. If you got 3,000,000,000 monthly active users, you're going to get the advertisers to come to the platform.

布伦特，帮我们分析下甲骨文的情况。TikTok是其早期客户之一，我们知道其在云计算领域市场份额仅有个位数。虽然他们手握OpenAI大单和Meta合约...

Hey, Brent, help us think about Oracle for a second here. TikTok is one of their early customers. We know that, you know, they have, you know, low single digits, maybe mid single digits market share as it relates to cloud. So they have this huge open AI contract. They have a meta contract.

肯定还有其他客户正在接洽。他们刚融资150亿美元用于建设，但天啊，实际需要1000亿美元吧？目前自由现金流还是负值，他们究竟要如何实现？

I'm sure there's others that are coming this way. They just raised $15,000,000,000 to help this build out. But man, they need $100,000,000,000 right? And so you have free cash flow that's negative here. How do they do this?

如何匹配这些合约所需的基建规模？竞争对手已投入数千亿美元进行建设，而市场却因他们指引的收入预期给予估值奖励，这种局面实在耐人寻味。

How do they satisfy this infrastructure build that's going to be basically commensurate with all these contracts? It just seems like a very curious situation that the market is willing to reward them for that revenue that they've guided to when it's gonna take their competitors have spent hundreds of billions of dollars on the on the build out.

是的。我是说，甲骨文，我们从未见过3170亿美元的订单积压连续增长。这相当于他们年收入的六、七倍。甲骨文的故事实际上就是关于订单积压的，甚至与收入无关。

Yeah. Mean, Oracle, we've never seen 317,000,000,000 sequential improvement in backlog. That that's six, seven times their annual revenue. The Oracle story is really about the backlog. It's not even about the revenue.

记住，这家公司从个位数增长指引到两位数增长。所以这还未体现在收入上。投资者对甲骨文的真正疑问是：所有这些积压订单是否虚幻？前几天在德州与Sam Altman同行的Clay，能否将这些基础设施落地并运行起来？而且能否盈利？因为我们知道基础设施的利润率远低于软件。

Remember, the company's, you know, is guiding from single digit growth to double digit growth. So this has not showed up in revenue. And the real question investors have on Oracle is all is all this backlog phantom, can Clay, who was walking with Sam Altman in Texas the other day, get this infrastructure in the ground and get it up? And is it and can you do it profitably? Because we know infrastructure is way lower margin than software.

这些就是我们不断被问到的问题。我们刚结束Jefferies AI Week的45家公司调研。所有人都相信投资回报即将到来，无论你是医生、律师还是华尔街从业者，都将获得经济价值。但这些是巨额投资，投资者难以消化如此庞大的投入规模。

So those are the questions we keep getting. We just came off the heels of 45 companies at Jefferies AI Week. And everyone believes the ROI is coming, the economic value that's gonna have for all of us, whether you're a doctor or a lawyer, you're you're in Wall Street is gonna be there. But these are huge investment. It's hard for investors to to digest magnitude that's going in.

我认为当前的另一个担忧在于交易规模之大和参与者之少。全球愿意开出3000亿美元支票的公司屈指可数——OpenAI算一个，但这样体量的合约方全地球可能就两三家。因此人们担忧集中度风险，也质疑甲骨文能否兑现承诺。

I think the other concern right now really is just around, just the scope of the transactions and how few there are. There are very few companies that are gonna hand over $300,000,000,000 checks. OpenAI, there's only a few that you could count on, like, again, there's like two or three on the planet that could deliver a contract that big. So I think there's concern about concentration risk. There's concern about can Oracle deliver.

关于这只股票的实际情况是，未来两年内它不会有太大影响，因为这些订单不会从他们的积压中消除，而积压量仍将保持高位。如果他们继续与Meta和中东数据中心以及其他合同签约，现在又拿下了TikTok的订单，还签下了更多基础设施项目。

Here's the reality for the stock. It's not gonna matter for the next two years because it's not gonna come off their backlog, and their backlog is gonna stay high. And if they keep signing up meta and Middle East data centers and other contracts. They've now got TikTok. They signed up more infrastructure.

这个积压数字只会持续攀升。虽然最终这会变得重要，但在过渡期内无关紧要，因为他们无法将其转化为收入。所以积压数字将保持高位，而甲骨文股价100%的波动都取决于积压量，而非收入或利润率。

That backlog number is gonna keep going higher. And it again, it's gonna matter at some point, but it's not gonna matter in the interim because they can't take it to revenue. So the backlog number is just gonna stay high, and a 100% of Oracle stock move is on backlog. It's not in revenue. It's not on margin.

这种情况终将逆转。我只是说短期内，只要他们持续签下这些交易，这就无关紧要。今天我们邀请了Core Weave，他们看到了AI需求的爆炸式增长，根本应接不暇。我们接触的每个数据中心运营商都面临同样的人手短缺问题。

It will flip at some point. So I'm I'm just saying in the near term, it's not gonna matter as long as they keep signing these deals. We had Core Weave on today, and they see an incredible demand for AI. They can't keep up. Every data center operator we're talking to can't keep up.

电力供应不足。这简直难以置信，我并非在夸大其词。目前我们看到的这种需求规模，实在是令人惊叹。

There's not enough power. It's it's hard to believe, and I'm not trying to hype this. It's just incredible, the demand that we're seeing right now.

所以甲骨文仅凭订单积压来交易。那你对甲骨文的评级是什么？

So Oracle trades only on backlog. What is your rating on Oracle then?

我们对甲骨文持买入评级。我们依然认为其订单积压量将保持高位。但风险在于他们能否兑现承诺——就像开发商说能在迈阿密建100套公寓，却尚未动工，还让你相信他们两三年内能完工。

We have a buy on Oracle. We continue to believe that that backlog is going to remain high. Again, the risk is can they convert? You know, they're they're basically saying we can build you 100 condos in Miami, but we haven't built them yet. And trust us, we'll get them up in two to three years.

这个类比很简单：他们在数据中心基础设施领域正是如此操作，提前多年签订基建合同。关键在于能否实现？有趣的是萨弗拉卸任、克雷上位，而克雷正是OCI架构的设计者。嗯。

And the analogy is simple, but that's what they're doing for data center infrastructure. They're accepting these contracts way ahead of infrastructure being built. The question is, can they pull it off? And, it's interesting that Safra steps down and Clay steps up, and Clay has architected OCI. Mhmm.

他做得非常出色。但现在的问题是，他们能否履行这些惊人的合同？因为实际设施都还没建成，全是低利润率的基础建设。

And he's done a great job. But then the question now is, can they execute on these incredible contracts? Because not the stuff's on the ground. None of it's up. It's it's again, it's lower margin infrastructure.

他们指望后续通过叠加软件来提高利润。我们认为积压数字将长期保持高位，因为完成这些需要数年时间。市场焦点始终在这个数字上——所以盯住甲骨文只需看这一个指标，倒是让我的工作变简单了：专注订单积压就行。

And then their hope is they they layer more software on top to bring it up. Again, the backlog number is gonna stay high in our opinion for a while because it's gonna take years for them to do this. And the focus really has been on that number. So, again, only one number to watch at Oracle, it makes my job easy. Focus on backlog, that's it.

我想是吧。不过听起来风险不小，不知道你晚上能否睡安稳。布伦特，谢谢分享，总是很受益于你的见解。

I guess so. I don't know if you sleep well at night, though. It sounds like a risky business. Brent, thank you. Always good to get your take on things.

杰富瑞的布伦特·希尔。说到甲骨文，其股价今日又下跌了5.5%，自两周前创下的历史高点以来已累计下跌近16%。罗斯柴尔德·雷德伯恩的分析师以175美元的目标价首次覆盖该股，这意味着较今日收盘价还有40%的下跌空间。该机构警告称，即便经历了本周的下跌，市场仍高估了甲骨文的云计算合约收入。

Brent Thill of Jefferies. Speaking of Oracle, the stock, as we showed you down another five and a half percent today, it's now lost nearly 16% from a record high hit just two weeks ago. Analysts at Rothschild Redburn initiating stock with a celebrating a $175 price target. That would be a 40% drop from today's close. The firm warning the market is overestimating Oracle's contracted cloud revenues even with this week's losses.

甲骨文本月仍上涨了27%。你如何看待这轮上涨后的回调？

Oracle is still up 27% this month. What do you make of this run-in the pullback?

嗯，回调的关键在于区分主次数据点，就像研究论文中的脚注。主要数据点是基于新闻的基本面跳空上涨。

Well, so is the pull you have say, what's the primary data point? What's the secondary? Just like footnotes in a in a research paper. The primary data point is the news related fundamentals based gap up.

哦，我听说然后，

Oh, I heard And then,

次要数据点是当天的市场反应。像这样的大幅上涨后出现回调、回撤完全正常。问题在于回调是否结束，还是会完全回补缺口？我认为短期内不会回补缺口。该股已重新估值，很可能会在此区间震荡整理。

the secondary data point is the reaction to that day. Perfectly normal to pull back, to dip, to give back a huge move like that. The question is, is the giveback over or are we gonna go all the way back and fill the gap? I don't think the gap gets filled anytime soon. I think the stock's been rerated and it's likely to back and fill here.

没错。

Right.

我会押注波动性降低。

I would bet against volatility.

思考一只股票仅凭积压订单而非实际收入实现、甚至尚未接近实现其宣称将获得的收入进行交易，这很有趣。

It's interesting to think about a stock trading purely on backlog and not the realization of actual revenue or even the close to realizing the revenue that they're announcing or saying that they will have.

顺便说一句，我知道布伦特总是非常平衡、非常谨慎，我们这里都很喜欢他。但我没听到买入建议。我是说，我听到有人指出他在强调当前无法变现的积压订单问题。有趣的是罗斯柴尔德的报告也指向积压订单，但他们同时质疑积压订单的规模——不仅是能否交付的问题，也不仅是需求增长和这个数字本身的问题。

Well, by the way, I I, know, I think Brent's always very balanced, very measured, and we love him here. But I didn't hear a buy. I mean, I heard it I heard someone pointing out that he was saying that it's all about the backlog that we can't monetize right now. It's interesting that the note from Rothschild points to the backlog as well, but they are questioning the size of the backlog as well. So not just can they deliver on it, not just growing demand and a number that's kinda goes out here.

听着，我们在这个平台上强调很久了：虽然营收增长故事可能有一定价值，但如果你过去三四年或五年持有甲骨文股票，本质上你是把它当作债券持有的。这是我常从持续为客户加仓的投资者那里听到的观点。而现在情况完全不同了。显然，当企业开始进入资本市场，债务状况引发担忧时，公司性质就改变了——尽管必须承认，今年持有甲骨文会是令人艳羡的选择，它一直是科技领域最激动人心的故事之一。

So, look, we've said on this desk for a long time that there's a a there's a revenue growth story that may be something, but if you've owned Oracle for the last three or four years or five years, you've owned it because it's almost behaved like a bond. This is something that I hear from a lot of investors that continue to add this to clients. And this is something that's now a very different story. And, obviously, you start coming to the capital markets, start worrying about a debt profile, it changes the profile of a company, even though, let's be clear, this has been a wish you owned Oracle this year, and it's been one of the most exciting stories in tech.

没错。甲骨文股价从卡特提到的2月20日3.3美元位置移动。50%回撤位是2.75美元，如果跌破这个价位，那就...

Right. Oracle moved to to Carter's point from 02/20 to $3.30. That 50% retracement is $275 If it breaks that price, that's

你的退出。

your exit.

如果没有，就对着那个方向射击并保持长线。

If not, just shoot against that and be long.

我只是觉得有趣的是，投资者忘记了这只股票从今年年初的高点到四月份的低点已经下跌了40%。想想看，如果你要填补那个缺口——我确实认为它会填补，根本原因在于，如果这只股票仅凭一个我们缺乏足够可见性的数字进行连锁交易，我认为终有一天你会看到它回补缺口，然后在250的位置大展拳脚。

I just find it interesting that investors forget that this stock sold off 40% from its highs early in this year to its lows in April. And just think about this. If you were gonna fill in that gap, which I actually think it will fill in the gap for the very reason, for the fundamental reason that if this thing is only chain trading on one number that we don't really have a lot of visibility on, I think at some point you see this thing come in and fill that gap and then have a ball at two fifty.

接下来，削减咖啡因摄入。星巴克裁员关店，这家咖啡连锁企业的转型计划进展如何，以及这对股票下一步走势意味着什么。但首先，好市多财报出炉。下一节为您带来最新季度的详细数据。别走开，他两分钟后回来。

Coming up, cutting the caffeine. Starbucks slashing jobs and closing stores, how the coffee chain's turnaround plans are unfolding and what it means for the stock's next move. But first, Costco results are out. The details and numbers from the latest quarter next. Don't go anywhere fast when he's back in two.

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特别优惠截止9月30日。

Special offer ends September 30.

欢迎回到《快钱》节目，好市多发布盈利预警，这家仓储式俱乐部销售额和利润超出预期。好市多电话会议正在进行中，CNBC的Melissa Repko带来最新消息。Melissa。

Welcome back to Fast Money and earnings alert on Costco, the warehouse club reporting sales and profits of top estimates. Costco's conference call is underway. CNBC's Melissa Repko has got the latest. Melissa.

大家好。我刚结束电话会议，他们仍在讨论中，但本季度的增长亮点包括会员收入同比增长约14%，这是备受关注的领域，因为他们很大一部分业务依赖于会员。另外，首席财务官Gary Millichip提到，他们正通过改变采购方式来抵消关税影响，推出Kirkland品牌产品作为受关税影响商品的替代品。他还表示在某些情况下会调整商品结构，下架部分商品或从受影响较小的制造商处加大采购量。

Hey. So I just got off the call, and they are still talking, but some of the highlights for growth in the quarter was that membership income grew by about 14% year over year, and that's a closely watched area since so much of, their their business comes down to members. The other thing that they spoke about is CFO Gary Millichip mentioned that they're trying to offset tariffs by sourcing differently than they were before. They're introducing things from the Kirkland brand that are alternatives to tariff affected items. And he also mentioned that they are, that they are choosing their assortment differently, in some cases dropping items or ordering bigger from manufacturers that are less heavily affected.

好的。Melissa，谢谢。需要说明的是Melissa Repko提到的会员费上涨问题——您可能好奇会员费增长是否源于会员数量增加？他们表示整体会员费增长中，不到一半是由于会员费标准上调所致。

Alright. Melissa, thank you. Melissa Repko, we should note because they did increase their membership fees. So you might wonder, is the increase in fees because of that increase in membership? And they were saying that just under half of that increase in overall membership fees are because of that increase to what you pay.

目前股价波动不大。

Stocks aren't moving much here.

不。而且我认为价格上涨已经体现在股价中，我们无需重复Costco那些显而易见的特点——虽然我还是快速提一下，其市盈率是47倍（过去）和40倍（未来）。但我要说的是，他们能获得与沃尔玛不同的估值倍数是有原因的，尽管我认为沃尔玛理应享有更高估值，也确实如此，这得益于他们更少的SKU数量和强大的采购能力。Costco的商品毛利率无人能及，因为他们专注于更少的商品品类。

No. And I I think that the price increase is is in the price, and we don't need to repeat what's obvious about Costco, which I'll quickly repeat that it's 47 times trailing 40 times forward. But I'll I'll say there's a reason why they are getting this multiple different than even Walmart who I think deserves a much better multiple, and they have it, of course, and they've had historically because of the smaller amount of SKUs and the buying power they have. The merchandise margins for Costco are better than anybody. So they're focusing on fewer items.

他们还有更大的提价空间。这对消费者固然是好事，但就利润率而言对公司更有利。不过目前...这估值比甲骨文还高。说实话，我宁愿持有沃尔玛。

They have the ability to push price even that much more. It's obviously great for the consumers there, but it's great for the company in terms of the margin profile. But at at this point, I mean, this, you know, this is more expensive than Oracle. I don't know. I'd rather own Walmart.

虽然你没问我这个问题，但我还是说了。好吧。

You didn't ask me that, but there I did it. Alright.

所以，你更倾向哪个？

So, what'd you rather?

自证清白。我没那么做。不，我没有。

Self legit. I didn't do that. No, I didn't.

我算是说了。

I kinda did it.

营收仍保持8%的增长，每股收益增长9%。续订率超过90%。这就是台印钞机。不过我也不喜欢这个估值倍数。

Revenue is still growing at 8 percent. The EPS growing at 9%. The renewal rate is above 90%. So that just is a cash cow right there. I don't like the multiple as well.

我 我 我觉得

I I I think

但你在任何时间点都不会喜欢它，

that But you would have never liked it at any one point in time,

不。我 我过去很喜欢续费率。我认为那是人们购买股票的原因，但我认为它现在比以往任何时候都更加臃肿了。

No. I I used to love the renewal rate. I think that was the reason why people buy the stock, but I think it's just getting a a lot more bloated than it's ever been to itself.

对。公平地说，其市盈率处于自身历史估值的高端。所以即使与自身相比，它现在也很昂贵。

Right. To be fair, the multiple is at the high end of its own historical valuation. So even just compared to itself, is it it is expensive.

而且如果你仔细想想，它其实没有任何真正的竞争对手，对吧？虽然还有其他类似的批发商，比如Costco、BJ这些。问题是，这是否是一个见顶形态，在一段史诗般的上涨之后？这只股票现在的价格和八到十个月前一样。

And it doesn't really have any competitors, if you think about it, right? There are other wholesale sellers like this, but there's Costco and all the others, BJ and so forth. The question is, is this a topping out formation, right, in an otherwise epic run? This is Is a stock. It has all the elements that it is the same price it was eight, ten months ago.

如果我有这只股票，我会卖掉它。

I would sell it if I had it.

我觉得有趣的是它从未确认标普500的新高。过去几个月我们有很多新高。另外我想说的是，我不太了解零售股，但他们2%的收入来自会员费，这可能占到总毛利的70%。这算是好生意吗？

I think it's fascinating that it never confirmed the new highs in the S and P 500. We've had a lot of new highs over the last couple months or so. Then the other thing I'll just say is, I don't know retail stocks, but 2% of their revenue are these membership fees. That could be 70% of the gross gross profit. Like, is that a good business?

我 我不知道。就像，就像是在卖东西

I I don't know. Like like, it just like selling

是毛利润的70%吗？

Is it 70% of the gross profit?

我想是的。我正在这里点击查看，这是来自

I think so. I'm just reading this here on the clicking through and this is from the

检查一下。看，看看某人的

examine it. Look, look at somebody's

明白了。我们会问

got it. We will ask

在两点。

at two.

是的。还有更多快钱即将到来。接下来要发生的是。

Yes. There's a lot more fast money to come. Here's what's coming up next.

星巴克遭遇去咖啡因化。这家咖啡连锁品牌正关闭门店并大幅裁员。十亿美元重组计划的影响。接下来，还有通胀、美联储以及动荡的市场。我们的下一位嘉宾如何应对股市波动及他当前看到的机遇。

Starbucks gets decaffeinated. The coffee chain shutting stores and slashing jobs. The impact of the billion dollar restructuring plan. Next, plus inflation, the Fed, and a volatile market. How our next guest is navigating the stock swings and where he's seeing opportunity now.

您正在收看纳斯达克时代广场市场现场直播的《快钱》节目。广告之后马上回来。

You're watching fast money live from the Nasdaq market site in Times Square. We're back right after this.

CNBC 2026年度变革者榜单，聚焦那些勇于创新、大胆领导并正在改变商业格局的女性。您认识正在重塑未来的人吗？立即登录cnbc.com/changemakers提名他们。

CNBC's Changemakers twenty twenty six list, spotlighting women who innovate, lead boldly, and are transforming business. Do you know someone who is rewriting the future? Nominate them now at cnbc.com/changemakers.

欢迎回到《快钱》。星巴克股价今日遇冷。这家咖啡连锁宣布了一项10亿美元的重组计划，包括关闭约500家门店，最早从明天开始裁减900名非门店员工。公司预计大部分裁员将发生在北美业务。这是CEO布莱恩·尼科尔斯为回归咖啡店本质和顾客的最新转型举措。

Welcome back to Fast Money. Starbucks shares going cold today. The coffee chain announcing a $1,000,000,000 restructuring plan that includes closing about 500 stores, laying off 900 non store employees starting as early as tomorrow. The company estimates most of the cuts will be in its North America business. This marks CEO Brian Nichols latest pivot to return the coffee house and to return to the coffee house and customer.

自他一年多前接手以来，该股已下跌约8%。我好奇CMG同期的表现——CMG同样下跌，所以自布莱恩·尼科尔斯离开后两只股票表现都不佳，无论这是否与他有关。但您既是星巴克顾客又是股东，您怎么看

The stock has fallen about eight percent since he took over a little bit more than a year ago, and I was curious about CMG's performance. In the same time frame, CMG is also down, so neither stock is doing well since Brian Nichols has left, whether or not it has something to do with Brian Nichols or not. But you are a Starbucks customer and a shareholder. So what do you think of

这个...目前我更多是忠实顾客而非大股东，对此我很庆幸。不过我确实持有股票，很久没加仓了，现在也不是时候。这很有趣。

the Yeah. I'm I'm a I'm a bigger customer than I'm a shareholder right now, and I'm happy about that. But I do own the stock. I I haven't added to it for a long time, and I don't it's not time. I it's interesting.

这有点像隐秘重组，因为他们并非彻底宣告'我们要转型'。实际上重点在于'我们要优化门店运营，通过改变利润率来实现'。但CMG和星巴克有个共同点：疫情后两家都曾达到巅峰状态。

This is kinda like a sneaky restructuring because this is not something that is an all out, hey. We're we're changing what we're doing. In fact, it's really been about, hey. We're gonna run these stores better, and we're gonna do it in way that's gonna change margins. But CMG and Starbucks have something in common, which is that coming out of COVID, things couldn't have been better for both places.

我认为你在价格上承受了很大压力，利润率也面临挑战。短期内我看不到任何转机。今天再次确认的是，没有速效解决方案。嗯。

I I think you have a lot of pressure on price. I think you have margin pressure. I I just don't think there's anything that can happen in the short run. What today reaffirmed is that there is no quick fix. Mhmm.

已经过去一年了，我认为你不必急于买入股票，尽管我今天下午确实匆忙赶去药店买了止咳药。

It's been a year, and and I don't think you have to rush into the stock even if I rushed into the store this afternoon to get a cough.

回到你提到的Chipotle案例，这并非星巴克独有的问题。整个行业都承受着巨大压力，看看Darden的遭遇就知道了。标普500餐饮板块——包括麦当劳、百胜、星巴克、Darden、达美乐等公司——相对于标普500指数的估值正处于十五年来最低点，这个领域目前确实处境艰难。

And and and and to your point, Chipotle, it's not idiosyncratic to Starbucks. They're all under a lot of pressure. We saw what happened to Darden. So if you look at the S and P five hundred restaurant industry group, which has McDonald's and Yum and Starbucks and Darden and so forth, Domino's, it's at a fifteen year low to the S and P 500 on It's a relative just not been a good space to be in.

他还在关闭业绩不佳的门店，但宣布2026年将重启门店扩张。现在距离那时只剩几个月了，真不知道他如何平衡这两者。我是他的支持者，认为他是出色的运营者，所以倾向于给他保留信任的空间。

He's also cutting non performing stores, but he's going back to store expansion in 2026. That's only a couple of months here. Don't know how you thread that needle. I'm a fan of his. I think he's a great operator, so I'm I'm prone to give him the benefit of the doubt.

从走势图来看，自七月份起就一直处于下降通道。但根据我的分析，其稳定价位应该就在当前80美元附近。我会以80美元为止损点买入。

When I look at it on a chart, it's been in a declining trend line since the July. But when I also look at where it should stabilize is really close to where we are right now, $80. I'd buy it against an 80 stop.

是啊。如果我们要玩五分硬币游戏，你更倾向...什么？我没听明白...

Yeah. If we're playing nickels, would you rather? What? I didn't know what

他们做了什么？新版的五分硬币吗？对。

they did. New nickel? Yeah.

就是这样

That's what

我说的就是这个。双倍利润就在这里。我选择CMG（注：Chipotle股票代码）是因为，想想星巴克，这体验并不好，价格也不合理。你知道，我觉得竞争太激烈了。

I'm talking about. Double nickels here. I'm doing CMG here because, know, when you think about Starbucks, like, this is not a good experience. It's not a good price point. I I you know, I think there's a lot of competition.

我认为Chipotle会重整旗鼓。预计明年盈利和销售额将实现两位数增长。我觉得Chipotle没问题。

I think Chipotle will get their act together. Double digit expected earnings and sales growth next year. I I think Chipotle is okay.

好的。接下来关注市场动向，股市从纪录高点回落，下位嘉宾将揭示最大风险与机遇所在。《快钱》节目两分钟后继续。欢迎回到《快钱》，股市连续第三天下跌，道指下挫近174点。

Alright. Coming up, the next move for markets as stocks pull back from records where next guest sees the biggest risk and opportunity. Win fast money returns back in two. Welcome back to fast money stocks pulling back for a third straight day. The Dow falling nearly a 174 points.

标普和纳斯达克指数均下跌0.5%，礼来公司股价今日下跌近4%。该公司暂停了一项旨在预防肥胖患者肌肉流失的实验性药物研究，该药物曾单独测试并与礼来的替泽帕肽联合测试。离岸钻井公司Transocean宣布折价出售股票后暴跌超13%，这家瑞士公司预计通过售股获得3.81亿美元用于偿债。部分股票触及关键点位：Alta创52周新高，

The S and P and Nasdaq both dropping half a percent shares of Eli Lilly nearly 4% lower today. The company halting a study of an experimental drug designed to prevent muscle loss in obesity patients, which was being tested alone and in combination with Lilly's terzepatide. Offshore driller Transocean dropping more than 13% after announcing the sale of shares at a discount. The Swiss company expecting to make $381,000,000 from the sale, which it will use to pay off debt and some stocks hitting key levels. Alta trading at fresh fifty two week high.

贝克休斯股价升至约八年来最高水平。尽管近期回调，下位嘉宾认为市场仍有充足上行空间。有请布林莫尔信托顾问公司宏观研究总监安德鲁·戴维斯。安德鲁，欢迎来到节目。

Baker Hughes hitting its highest level in about eight years. Well, even with the recent pullback, our next guest says markets have plenty of runway ahead. Let's bring in Andrew Davis, director of macro research at Bryn Mawr Trust Advisors. Andrew, great to have you with us.

谢谢邀请。

Thanks for having me.

所以当谈到AI商店、AI故事时，你心里没有任何疑问。我的意思是，目前很多质疑似乎都源于此。

So you have no question in your mind when it comes to the AI store, the AI story. I mean, that seems to be where a lot of the doubts are stemming from right now.

没错。看，在当前环境下，我认为这项宏伟的法案确实激励了资本支出，企业已经承诺进入这个资本支出周期。我们预计这一趋势将持续到2026年。虽然市场并非没有风险，但从战术上讲，我们超配股票，认为还有上涨空间。

Yeah. Look, in this environment, I think that the one big beautiful bill, it really incentivizes that CapEx and companies have already committed that CapEx cycle. We see it as continuing for a while here into 2026. So not to say there's not risk to the market, but tactically, we are overweight equity, and we feel like there's room to run.

不过考虑到资本支出周期——因为我们开头讨论过甲骨文，我们采访的分析师说甲骨文是靠订单积压来交易的。这是否意味着市场其实是在押注资本支出必将发生？但实际上我们并不确定资本支出是否真会发生。

When you think about, though, that CapEx cycle, because we were talking at the top about Oracle, we were talking to an analyst who was saying that Oracle's trading on backlog. And so, inherently, does that mean that the market is sort of trading on this notion that there will be CapEx spent? We don't actually know if there will be CapEx spent.

这部分确实存在猜测，但我认为更具体的是宏观利好因素——鲍威尔上周明确表示降息是风险管理，我们认为这是在购买选择权。观察点阵图的离散程度，我认为这是健康的。必须澄清：这不是决策混乱，而是纪律性的体现。

Well, some speculation on that part, but I do think that what's more concrete from the macro tailwinds that we have going on here is, look Powell said last week that their cut is risk management and we view that as they're buying optionality here. I think I look at that dot plot dispersion and I view that as healthy. I make no mistake. I don't think that's confusion on their part. I think that's discipline.

他们在对不同环境进行压力测试。这正是投资者希望看到的宏观视角。我常说2025年的新准则是：不要对抗数据（而非不要对抗美联储）。鲍威尔对此阐述得非常清楚。

They're stress testing different environments. That's exactly what I want to see from a macro lens as an investor. This is where I like to say the old rule was don't fight the Fed in 2025. It's don't fight the data. Powell's been crystal clear on that point.

他们依赖数据决策。点阵图不是承诺，而是模型输出。所以对我们来说，比资本支出更重要的是模型输入参数——包括生产率、消费者行为和通胀传导效应。

They're data dependent. Their dot plot isn't a promise. It's model output. So what matters more to us besides this CapEx are the inputs to that model. That's going to be productivity, consumer behavior and inflation pass through.

当前数据告诉我们：经济正在放缓而非崩溃。

Right now, that data is telling us slowing not breaking economy.

安德鲁，当你观察消费者时，你提到重点关注高端消费者及其中疲软的迹象与数据噪音。你具体在寻找什么？对你来说，什么会成为预示消费者崩溃的预警信号？

Andrew, when you look at the consumer, you've noted some you're focused on the high end consumer and signs of weakness there with noisy data. What exactly are looking for and what's going to be the canary in the coal mine for you to say the consumer is cracking?

是的，我们确实高度聚焦于消费者，我认为这种分化值得解释。我喜欢称当前阶段为'轻度就业扩张'。我的意思是，我们不再看到过去那种月复一月的强劲招聘节奏，但这没关系。人口结构已经改变，我们认为不需要太多新增劳动力就能吸收新进入者。

Yeah, we're definitely laser focused on the consumer, and I think the bifurcation is worth explaining. I like to call it an employment light expansion that we're in right now. And what I mean by that is that robust pace of hiring month over month we're not seeing anymore, but that's okay. Demographics have changed. We think you don't need to see as much to absorb new entrants in the labor force.

更重要的是今早公布的首次申领失业救济人数，对吧？维持在历史低位附近。这告诉我们'低解雇、慢招聘'的状态。别误会我的意思。

What's more important, initial jobless claims coming out this this morning. Right? Pinned near all time lows. That tells us low fire, slow hire. Don't get me wrong.

低端消费者和年轻职场人士确实感受到压力，但高端消费者才是美国的经济引擎，我们从财报电话会议中就能看到。沃尔玛告诉我们什么？高收入消费者在那里增加了支出。与此同时，麦当劳的低端消费者出现了两位数下滑。这种分化真实存在，这种K型经济——顺便说一句，我认为这就是为什么许多经济学家的模型在过去几年可能失灵了。

The low end consumer, the young professional definitely feeling the pinch, but the high end consumer is the economic engine of The US, and we're seeing it in earnings calls. What did Walmart tell us? High income consumers spending more there. At the same time, McDonald's, double digit declines from the low end consumer. So that bifurcation is real, that k shaped economy, which, by the way, I think is why a lot of economists' models were maybe broken over the last couple of years.

但重申一次，这属于增速放缓而非崩溃。

But, again, that's back to slowdown, not breakdown.

显然消费者是你最关注的领域之一。另一个关键因素是什么？我的意思是，什么会阻碍你的看涨观点？

So clearly, consumer is the is one of the things that you're most focused on. What what is the other? I mean, what what will get in the way of your bullish outlook?

是的。我认为主要风险还是回到高端消费者和劳动力市场。无可争议的是，市场已经降温。所以我们要确保不会看到裁员潮涌现。至于月度就业数据，你们已经看到一些修正波动。果不其然，劳工统计局的数字印证了ADP数据最初就告诉我们的情况。

Yeah. I think the big risk is just back to that, the high end consumer, the labor market, you know, it is it's irrefutably, it's cooled down. So we wanna make sure that we don't see layoffs bubble up. On the on the jobs number, as far as month over month, I think that's where, you know, you've seen some revision volatility. Lo and behold, the BLS number revealed what the ADP number told us from the first get go.

因此我认为在当前环境下，我们需要关注替代数据源，以了解高收入消费者的行为动向及其钱包份额的流向。

So I think in this environment, you wanna be looking at alternative data sources to get comfortable around what the high income consumer is doing, where share of wallet's going.

好的。安德鲁，很高兴见到你，谢谢。安德鲁·戴维斯，布林莫尔信托。

Alright. Andrew, great to see you. Thank you. Andrew Davis, Bryn Mawr Trust.

没错。他说得对。我是说，今天是个令人困惑的日子，尤其是在充斥着滞后数据的背景下。第二季度GDP修正值高达3.8%，虽然我意识到这反映的是第二季度的情况。

Yeah. He's right. I mean, today was a confusing day, especially in a world of really backward looking data. You get a second quarter GDP revision up at 3.8. I realized that's the second quarter.

我们当时正准备去海滩，现在情况已大不相同。但这些数据能告诉你经济曾经的状态，再看看失业救济金申请数——虽然这个数据波动很大，但它确实与当前状况有一定同步性。我们在讨论餐饮等 discretionary 消费领域时也提到过，卡特展示的那些图表让我很难对消费者信心感到乐观。

We were just getting ready to go to the beach, and we're in a different place here. But it tells you where the economy was, and then you have the jobless claims, which is a noisy data piece, but, yes, it's somewhat concurrent to to where we are. I I think and we've talked about it even in some of the discretionary spend in the restaurant space. Carter's talking about those charts. It's hard for me to get really excited about the consumer.

我认为 discretionary 消费领域...其实一年前我就有这种感觉，虽然在某些领域明显判断失误，但在服装等部分行业的预测是正确的。现在不是追逐消费者的时候，我确实认为第四季度市场的支柱仍是巨型科技股。

I think discretionary, and and I I I felt this a year ago, and I think that was it was clearly wrong in a handful of places, but in some of the apparel and some of these places, was right. I don't think you're chasing the consumer here, and and I do think that the the strength of this market in the fourth quarter remains mega cap tech.

从图表上看，你对标普500和科技七巨头的走势有何见解？

What do you see in terms of the charts for the S and P for mag seven?

这就是问题的全部——历史总在重演。想想标普500（既然我们在讨论这个指数）仅仅因为关税争端就抹去了其创立以来21%的价值创造，英伟达更是暴跌50%。这些终究是风险资产，但当前风险溢价明显不足，需要采取防范措施。

Well, that's the whole story. It continues to be, it seems to be ever thus, and yet, again, to think that the S and P, since that's what we're talking about, lost 21% of the value it ever created since its beginning because of a tariff quarrel, right? Meaning, Nvidia lost 50%. They're still risk assets and not much risk is priced in. Take measures.

来了

Coming

接下来，CarMax股价暴跌。公司最新财报公布后，股价直线下滑。这些数字让投资者迅速离场，而《快钱》节目将在两分钟后回归。

up, CarMax crashing out. Shares taking a nosedive after the company's company's latest earnings. The numbers that had investors driving off the lot when fast money returns back in two.

12月11日，加入梅丽莎·李和交易员团队在纽约市的全程现场庆祝活动。《快钱》直播，假日交易季。立即登录cnbcevents.com/fastmoney获取门票。

December 11, join Melissa Lee and the team of traders in New York City for an all access celebration live and on air. Fast Money Live, trading the holidays. Get your tickets now at cnbcevents.com/fastmoney.

欢迎回到《快钱》。CarMax股价遭受重创。在报告了低于分析师预期的盈利和收入后，这家二手车零售商的股价下跌近20%，跌至2020年3月以来的最低水平。详情请连线CNBC的菲尔·拉博。菲尔，发生了什么？

Welcome back to Fast Money. Shares of CarMax getting wrecked. After reporting earnings and revenue that missed analyst estimates, the used vehicle retailer stock down almost 20% hitting levels not seen since March 2020. For more, let's bring in CNBC's Phil Laboe. Phil, what happened?

他们对此有何解释？

What did they say about this?

梅丽莎，这份报告毫无亮点。真的，当你审视这个季度时，几乎每个关键指标都很糟糕。甚至在电话会议上，CEO表示情况逐月恶化。虽然他们认为现在处境有所改善，但根本问题是——

Melissa, there was nothing good in this report. Really, when you look at the quarter, almost every key metric was poor. And even on the conference call, the CEO said month by month, the quarter got worse. Now, believe they're better positioned now. But here's the bottom line.

他们在营收和利润上双双未达预期。无论是零售还是批发渠道的车辆购销数量都在下降。而贷款损失准备金不仅小幅增加，相比去年同期大幅上升了26%。这笔账一目了然。

They missed on the top and the bottom line. Vehicle sales in terms of the number of vehicles purchased or sold either in retail or wholesale, that went down. And the loan loss provisions, they went up. They didn't go up just a little bit, they went up by 26% compared to the same quarter last year. Do the math here.

他们看到贷款质量在逾期和违约方面正在恶化，尤其是2022年和2023年发放的贷款。当你查看CarMax的股票时，请记住当前整个行业的汽车贷款逾期率为2.54%。虽然不及2008、2009年那么高，但过去几年已大幅上升，这引发了对消费者韧性的质疑——我们是否会重回当年那种逾期率水平。在这种背景下，你可能会觉得现在投资汽车行业糟透了。但如果你投资的是供应商，其实表现相当不错。

They see that the loan quality in terms of delinquencies and defaults, it's deteriorating, especially for those written in 2022 and 2023. And as you take a look at shares of CarMax, keep in mind that that auto delinquency rate right now for the industry, it's at 2.54%. Now, it's not as high as it was back in 'eight and 'nine, but it has gone up substantially over the last couple of years, which raises questions about the strength of the consumer and whether or not we're headed towards those types of delinquency rates that we saw back in 'eight and 'nine. Against that backdrop, you might be saying to yourself, terrible time to be invested in the auto industry. Well, if you've been invested in the suppliers, you've done quite nicely.

特别是回溯到四月初，还记得关税政策宣布时吗？那时汽车供应商股票遭受重创，人们都说要避开它们。但实际上它们跑赢了道琼斯工业平均指数和标普500，此后一直表现稳健，部分原因是能将关税成本转嫁给利润率被迫降低的汽车制造商。

Especially if you go back to early April. Remember when the tariffs were announced? That's when auto supplier stocks just got hammered and people said stay away from them. They have outperformed the Dow Jones Industrial Average, S and P 500. They've been a steady performer since then, in part because they've been able to pass along tariff costs to the automakers who have had to have lower margins.

供应商们可以对车企说'不，你们自己承担成本'吗？不，现实是供应商告诉车企：想要这些零部件，就得买单。这就是正在发生的事。看看维宁尔、麦格纳、博格华纳、李尔这些股票——自四月以来普遍表现优异，远超其他许多股票，梅丽莎。

They haven't been able to say, No, you eat the cost. Instead, it's the supplier saying to the automakers, you want these parts, you want these components, pay the bill. And that's what's happened here. That's why you take a look at Visteon, Magna, BorgWarner, Lear. All of these stocks have generally had a very nice performance since April, far better than a lot of other stocks, Melissa.

但这恰恰说明，尽管很多人看到CarMax的财报后表示要暂时避开车企或经销商，供应商们过去六个月的实际表现却相当亮眼。

But it just goes to show you, even though a lot of people are looking at the CarMax results and they're saying, Oh man, this is you want to stay clear of the automakers here for a while or the auto dealers, The suppliers have put in a really nice performance over the last six months.

那么Phil，Carvana和CarMax相比，是因为CarMax拥有更大的金融部门吗？还是他们的贷款政策不同？为何两者存在如此大的差异？

So Carvana versus CarMax, Phil, does CarMax just have a bigger financing division? Do they not extend loans as well? Why is there such a discrepancy between those two?

Carvana与CarMax的对比涉及多方面问题。看那张图表就明白了——单车毛利润才是人们关注的核心差异点。在这方面，Carvana的表现优于CarMax，这是市场聚焦的关键指标。

A lot of issues here in terms of Carvana versus CarMax. And look, the chart there says it all. Gross profit per vehicle is really where most people focus on the difference between the two companies. Carvana is doing better than CarMax in terms of that gross profit per vehicle. That's the key metric that a lot of people focus on.

显然，CarMax因实体门店承担了更多成本，而主营二手车销售的Carvana本质上是个数字化平台。

Clearly, there's a lot more cost on the CarMax side in terms of the physical locations versus Carvana, which is really a digital entity in terms of the vehicle sales for used vehicles.

好的。菲尔，谢谢你。菲尔·拉博。CarMax报告中也揭示了一个消费者趋势，那就是信用评分较高的消费者持观望态度。而那些信用评分较低、信用质量较差的消费者正在购车。

All right. Phil, thank you. Phil Laboe. There's also a consumer tell within the CarMax report, too, and that is that the consumers with higher FICO scores are sitting on the sidelines. Those with lower FICO scores, so lower credit quality, they are buying cars.

那么这说明了他们面临怎样的风险？显然，贷款损失可能会增加，或者说存在他们未来可能出现拖欠的担忧。

So what does that tell you about their exposure? I mean, obviously, increased loan losses or so there is that worry that that they will be delinquent at some point.

是的。我想说，Z世代中49%的父母会帮他们支付车贷。所以我不确定这是否真的那么令人担忧。我认为你说得对，这确实令人忧虑，但我觉得他们的父母会出手相助。所以情况不会太糟糕。

Yeah. I would say, you know, Gen Z, 49% of Gen Z's parents help them pay car payments. So I I I don't know if it's as big of a worrisome thing. I think I think you're accurate to say it's worrisome, but I think they're gonna get bailed out by their parents. So I don't think it's it's gonna be horrendous.

不会像08或09年那样严重。另外还有提前消费的因素。关税曾是主要考量，所以可能存在为规避关税而提前购车的情况。还有就是那个避不开的问题——利率。目前利率实在太高了。

It's not gonna be in o eight or o '9. There's also the pull forward. Tariffs were the major major consideration, so there could have been a pull forward with all of these to get ahead of tariffs. And then there's the there's the elephant in the room with interest rates. Interest rates are too high right now.

他们把买车搞得贵得离谱，这笔账怎么算都不划算。不过这更像是CarMax自身的问题，而非其他人的责任。

They make buying cars way too expensive, and it just doesn't factor out. But it seems like this is more of a car CarMax problem than other people's problem.

但Z世代的49%呢

The 49% of Gen z, though

是啊。

Yeah.

这是假设所有这些贷款、所有购车者都是Z世代。我是说，Z世代之外还有其他人群。

That's assuming that all these loan all these people buying cars are Gen Z. I mean, there's other people outside of Gen Z.

哦，你前面提到了。我以为你之前说的是高端消费者不买车。

Oh, you prefaced it. I thought you you thought you prefaced it with saying the high high end consumer is not buying cars.

对。

Right.

所以我假设低端消费者

So I'm assuming that the low end But consumer

那不一定就是Z世代。没错。

that's not necessarily Gen Z. Exactly.

事实上，如果是父母在支付

In fact, if the parents are paying

账单，他们很可能承担贷款，而且很可能是高端人群。CarMax的故事对我来说更多是关于市场份额的流失。他们正在输给竞争对手。回到Phil提到的整体经济环境，以及我认为正在发生的事——看看通用汽车那张图表，不知道我们是否有时间讨论信贷问题。

the bills, they're probably on the loans and they're probably the higher end people. The CarMax story was about share loss to me as much as anything. I mean, they're losing out to the competitors. And back to what Phil said about the general overall climate and what I think is going on the look at that chart on GM. I don't know if we have time for credit here.

不是吗？好吧。但对我来说，那张图表几乎要突破三年的阻力位，接近五年的高点，而我持多头仓位。

No? Okay. So but that that's a chart that to me is near breaking through a three year, breaking near a five year, and I'm long.

好的。接下来关注小盘股的重大技术走势。当罗素2000指数从纪录高点回落时，图表大师对该板块走向的见解，以及他对某金属生产商的看法。稍后在《快钱》第二时段为您呈现。蒂姆，最后交易时间。

Alright. Coming up, small caps, big technicals. Where the chart master sees that group heading as the Russell two thousand pulls back from records, plus his take on one metal producer. That's next for Fast Money and two. Final trade time, Tim.

通用汽车（GM），抱歉。卡特在休息时告诉我他不想对此发表评论，但我觉得他其实看好。我也看好。给

GM, excuse me. Carter told me at the break that he he doesn't wanna comment on this, but I think he likes it. I like it. Give

我二十四秒。卡特。

me twenty four seconds. Carter.

石油服务类股正在上涨。

Oil services stocks going higher.

丹。与卡特一起做空IWN。史蒂夫。TJ Maxx。

Dan. Fading IWN with Carter. Steve. TJ Maxx.

感谢收看《快钱疯狂金钱》，吉姆·克莱默的节目即将开始。

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