霍尔迪·维瑟：比特币抛售是"无声IPO"时刻？资本主义的临界点与AI货币革命

那个规模较小但最终将成为主流的群体，我认为部分是出于意识形态，部分属于第三类散户群体，这些人遍布全球各地。

The one that's the smaller group that will be the eventual group, the one that is, I think, part ideology and part that third bucket of retail, those are the people around the globe.

我认为很多美国人觉得比特币是美国的东西。

I think a lot of people in America think that Bitcoin is an American thing.

其实不是。

It's not.

它是全球性的，而且大部分持有者不在美国——不是指美元持有量，而是持有人数。

It's a global thing, and most of the ownership is outside The US, not the dollar ownership, but the numbers.

巴西的人们，越南的人们，菲律宾的人们，印度的人们。

The people in Brazil, the people in Vietnam, the people in The Philippines, the people in India.

我是说，那可是80亿潜在买家

I mean, that's 8,000,000,000 potential buyers

没错。

Right.

都对这感兴趣。

That are interested in this.

我认为这个群体的规模目前还很小，但正在增长，而且由于稳定币、汇款等一切因素开始发挥作用，增长速度将会加快。

And I think that bucket is very small, but it's growing, and now it's gonna grow faster because of stablecoins, remittances, and everything starting to happen.

因此当你看到稳定币的交易量达到人们预测的水平时，资金自然会向比特币迁移，因为它没有国界限制。

So as you see stablecoins go up to the volumes that people are predicting, it will be a natural migration because Bitcoin has no borders.

它不是美国股市。

It is not a US stock market.

也不是欧洲股市。

It's not a European stock market.

这些都不是。

It's not any of these.

过去十七年里，除了黄金和比特币之外，唯一真正有效的投资标的只有科技七巨头。

The only thing that has worked as an investment over the last seventeen years aside from gold and aside from Bitcoin has basically been the mag seven.

其他所有投资基本上都让你遭受损失且毫无回报。

Everything else you've kind of suffered in and had no returns.

没错。

Right.

当你把时间拉长来看，我知道作为宏观投资者，你考虑的是五年、十年的周期。

When you zoom out, I know that as a macro investor, you're thinking about five years, ten years.

你能告诉我你认为比特币在未来五到十年内作为一种资产会扮演什么角色吗？

Can you tell me what you think Bitcoin's role will be in, say, five to ten years' time as an asset?

因为我们看到黄金显然在飙升。

Because we see gold obviously surging.

各国央行正在买入。

Central banks are buying.

我认为在储备资产地位的货币层面正在发生转变。

I think there's a shift at the monetary level in terms of reserve asset status.

你认为比特币可能会在其中发挥作用吗，比如政府实际积累比特币？

Do you think Bitcoin will maybe play a role in that, governments actually accumulating Bitcoin?

你觉得这种情况在更大的金融体系中会如何发展？

Like, how do you see this playing out within the greater financial system?

好的。

Okay.

这就是我的观点可能有点超前的地方。

This is where my views get a little out there.

好的。

Okay.

首先，我认为如果我们放眼一代人，展望25年后，将会发生一次财富转移。

So first of all, I I think if we pan out a generation and we go out twenty five years, there will be a transfer of wealth that happens.

婴儿潮一代，即便有瑞克的技术延长寿命，他们仍会经历正常的生命终结过程。

The baby boomers, even with Rick's thing, they they their life will extend, but they will still go through the normal course of dying.

他们的子女将继承财富，而比特币的所有权特性非常简单。

Their kids will get money, and the ownership thing for Bitcoin is very simple.

60岁以下的人——或者说40岁以下的人——基本都持有比特币。

Below the age of 60, everyone owns Bitcoin, or at least below the age of 40, everyone owns it.

但在婴儿潮一代中，比特币的持有量几乎可以忽略不计。

But the ownership is basically nothing in the baby boomers.

根据目前数据，我认为这个比例大约是10%。

I think it's 10% at this point in terms of the numbers.

随着财富转移的发生，这种情况将会出现。

As that money transfers, that will happen.

所以在我看来，这是既定的事实。

So that that is a given for me in terms of what's gone on.

相对于黄金的价值储存功能。

The store of value relative to gold.

在我看来，基于未来经济形态（由AI代理主导），黄金的问题在于流通速度。

Gold, in my opinion, based on the way the economy will look, which is with AI agents, it's all about velocity.

这就回到了凯特琳·朗的观点。

So we get back to the Caitlin Long thing.

人们需要开始意识到，流通速度关乎交易效率。

People need to start realizing if you have velocity, velocity is about the speed of transactions.

在我看来，实物黄金无法适应这种环境。

Physical gold to me does not live in that world.

确实不行。

No.

这不是问题的关键。

That is not what it's about.

因此我认为比特币相对于黄金将在这一框架下呈现积极态势。

So I think Bitcoin will become positive on that framework relative to gold.

但对大家更重要的是，我已经吸取了教训，必须就此写些东西来阐明观点。

But the more important thing for people out there is that I have learned my lesson, and I have to write something on this to to make it clear.

我相信比特币最大的资产是时间。

I believe that Bitcoin's greatest asset is time.

我在学习冥想时领悟到一点：当你陷入高度情绪化的当下时刻，就会忘记道路的漫长。

And I have a something I learned in my days of of learning how to meditate, which was if you get caught in the moment, which is highly emotional, you forget how long the path is gonna be.

所以作为宏观分析者，我常告诫自己：别纠结比特币是105还是95。

And that's why as a macro person, I try to grab myself and say, stop worrying about whether Bitcoin is a 105 or 95.

我只明白一件事。

I know one thing.

如果三个月后涨到130，没人会记得它曾跌到95，大家只会追涨。

If it's at a 130 in three months, no one's gonna remember that it was at 95, and they're just gonna be chasing it higher.

所以让我们忘记那个画面，开始思考所有创新将会带来什么。

So let's forget about that picture, and let's start thinking about what'll happen to all innovations.

因此我相信人工智能将颠覆每一家现有的上市公司，没有任何企业能避免被人工智能超越的命运。

So I believe artificial intelligence will disrupt every single existing public company, and there will be no way to have a business that isn't outcompeted from artificial intelligence.

创业者将崛起。

Entrepreneurs will rise.

私营企业将崛起。

Private companies will rise.

它们永远不会上市。

They'll never go public.

资本结构将发生改变。

The capital structure will change.

所以比特币在十五年后将成为这个星球上唯一具有数字护城河理念的存在。

And so what Bitcoin becomes in fifteen years is the only thing on the planet as an idea that actually has a moat that's part of the digital economy.

其他一切。

Everything else.

所以如果你想想GameStop的遭遇，其实就是败给了这个趋势。

So if you think of what happened to GameStop, well, lost to this.

标普五百指数中的每个企业，最初都只是一个创意。

Every idea that is an S and P five hundred name was an idea at some point.

它曾是一项创新。

It was an innovation.

标普五百企业的平均寿命正在逐年缩短。

The lifespan of an S and P five hundred company is shrinking every single year.

因此我认为所有创新最终都会式微，而比特币的特质使其能免疫于时间侵蚀。

So I believe all innovations in time will shrink, and what Bitcoin has and what it's immune to is time.

它将永远存在。

It will always be here.

如今它已成为两万亿美元市值的资产（虽然现在略低于这个数字），我认为它已具备护城河地位，而当今世上极少事物能拥有真正的护城河。

And now that it's a $2,000,000,000,000 asset, or was and now slightly below, I think it has achieved moat status, and very few things in in in our lives have moats right now.

想接受比特币和稳定币支付吗？

Want to accept Bitcoin and Stablecoin payments?

速度让一切变得简单。

Speed makes it simple.

顾客可通过应用内二维码、线上或POS机支付。

Customers can pay via QR code in app, online, or POS.

Speed帮助Stake and Shake在全国范围内接受比特币支付。

Speed helped Stake and Shake accept Bitcoin nationwide.

以下是首席运营官Dan Edwards的评论。

Here's what Dan Edwards, COO, said.

当顾客选择用比特币而非信用卡支付时，我们节省了约50%的手续费。

And when customers choose to pay in Bitcoin instead of credit cards, we, are saving about 50% in our processing fees.

这赢得了比特币用户更多支持，并带来10%的收入增长。

This led to more support from Bitcoin users and a 10% revenue boost.

开始使用非常简单。

Getting started is easy.

在tryspeed.com注册或几小时内完成API集成。

Sign up at tryspeed.com or integrate the API in hours.

立即开始接受比特币支付。

Start accepting Bitcoin today.

访问speed.app/coinstories下载或扫描屏幕上的二维码，使用优惠码coin stories 10即可获得5,000次免费统计服务。

Download speed at speed.app/coinstories or the QR code on the screen and use code coin stories 10 for 5,000 free stats.

BitKey是一款具备多重签名安全机制、继承功能和现实场景恢复系统的比特币硬件钱包。

BitKey is a Bitcoin hardware wallet with multisix security, inheritance, and a recovery system designed for real life.

无需复杂设置，也无需助记词。

No complex setup and no seed phrases.

真正实现无压力的自主托管。

Just true self custody without the stress.

该产品被《时代》杂志评为2024年度最佳发明之一。

It was named one of Time's best inventions in 2024.

使用优惠码stories可在bitkey.world享受8折优惠。

Use code stories for 20% off at bitkey.world.

接下来请收看：比特币之道。

Up next, the Bitcoin way.

只有一种方法可以保护你的比特币免受政府、政客和第三方风险的影响，那就是100%自主保管。

There's only one way to protect your Bitcoin from government, politicians, and third party risk, and that is 100% self custody.

我在比特币之路的朋友们将培训你如何第一次就正确掌握这种方法。

My friends at the Bitcoin Way will train you how to do this the right way the first time.

绝不妥协。

No compromises.

访问bitcoinway.com/natalie与专家交流，确保你的比特币安全且私密。

Go to the bitcoinway.com/natalie to speak with the experts about making sure your Bitcoin is secure and private.

最后，《币圈故事》由Genius Group赞助播出，这是一家在NYSE American上市（股票代码GNS）的比特币储备公司。

And finally, Coin Stories is brought to you by Genius Group, a Bitcoin treasury company listed on the NYSE American under ticker GNS.

Genius正在建立10,000枚比特币的储备金，并刚刚推出了Genius学院，提供来自Safedina Moose、我本人等的免费课程。

Genius is building a 10,000 Bitcoin treasury and just launched the Genius Academy, featuring free courses from Safedina Moose, myself, and more.

立即开始学习，请访问geniusacademy.ai。

Start learning today at geniusacademy.ai.

天才集团。

Genius Group.

天才不以智商衡量。

Genius isn't measured in IQ.

而是以比特币衡量。

It's measured in Bitcoin.

就资产类别规模而言，你认为它会与黄金持平，还是超越黄金？

So in terms of asset class size, do you think it's going to parity with gold, higher than gold?

我是说，Sailor刚在电视上表示，甚至在未来五年内肯定会超过黄金。

I mean, Sailor was just on TV saying it's definitely going to exceed gold in even the next five years.

我也认为它会比黄金更庞大。

I think it will be bigger than gold as well.

今年年初时我曾想过——虽然没公开说过——考虑到发生的所有事情，我以为现在至少会是当前价格的三倍。

I thought this year at the beginning of the year, I didn't say this publicly, but I thought we'd be at least three times higher than we are now because of all the things that have happened.

所以当我听到人们感到沮丧时，确实感同身受。

So when I hear people frustrated, it's like, yeah.

我也以为价格会更高些。

I thought we'd be higher too.

相对于我的预期，这可能是我在预测一年后情况时错得最离谱的一次。

So relative to my expectations, this may have been the most wrong I've ever been in thinking about things a year out.

不过这没关系，因为最终我在投入时间的过程中学到了很多。

And that's fine because at the end, I learned a lot during the time of spending time.

如果我当初预测对了，就不会这么专注地去探究——现在还有谁在抛售这个？

If I would have been right, I wouldn't have paid attention as much and gone through, who is still selling this?

也不会深入了解休眠币的动向、事件成因这些细节。

And then learn more about dormant coins, what's going on, why this is happening.

我更不会写下那篇关于静默IPO的文章。

I wouldn't have written the silent IPO.

所以我把自己的错误视为学习的机会。

So I kind of take my my mistakes as being something to learn from.

但回顾起来，我认为今年确实不应该是那个爆发年份，这是有道理的。

I do think when you look back, it actually makes sense that this was not the year.

当时AI仍然是个容易的投资方向。

AI was still an easy place to invest.

黄金成为了一个散户参与的热门动量标的。

Gold was something that became a momentum name, where retail was involved.

我从未想过会看到这种情况。

I never thought I'd see that.

我从未想过黄金的波动性会超过比特币。

I never thought I'd see gold have higher volatility than Bitcoin.

今年发生了许多变化，最终形成了不同的局面。

A lot of things changed this year that I think have ended up being something that's different.

所以我要第三次提起这件事。

So I'm gonna bring it up for the third time.

当我第三次说起某件事时，通常意味着它已经深植我脑海，挥之不去。

When I say something for the third time, that usually means it's in my head, and I can't get rid of it.

人们需要思考凯特琳·朗至少讲了四年的那个故事。

People need to think about Caitlin Long's story that she's talked about for at least four years.

嗯。

Mhmm.

速度与杠杆的较量

Velocity versus leverage.

凯特琳的观点尤为重要，因为她作为传统金融界的银行业专家，一直在为金融护栏而奋斗

It's really important to come from Caitlin because Caitlin is a banking expert on the trad fi world who's been trying to fight for the financial guardrails.

所以她深谙这一理念

So she understands this concept.

如果货币流通速度提升，回顾传统金融世界就会明白为何我们一直在大量印钞——因为我们无法提高流通速度

And if velocity goes up, go back to the traditional finance world and realize why we've been printing so much money because we can't get velocity.

而一旦流通速度恢复，我们就不需要那么高的杠杆率，在我看来这意味着比特币将胜过其他所有资产

And once we have velocity again, we don't need as much leverage, and that means Bitcoin to me is the winner relative to every other asset.

如果他们表现不佳，我深知人类的本性——人们总会投资于那些有效的东西

And if they're not doing well, one thing I know about all human beings, they will invest in what's working.

没错

Right.

能分享一下你与比特币的渊源故事吗？

Can you share your Bitcoin backstory?

你是怎么进入这个领域的？

How did you get into this?

是的。

Yeah.

这是个有趣的故事。

It's an interesting story.

我之前对比特币有小额投资，因为我坚信区块链终将成为一项必要的技术，特别是在我任职摩根士丹利银行工作的经历之后。

So I had small investments into Bitcoin because I believed in the blockchain as an eventual technology that would was necessary, particularly from my experience in the banking working for Morgan Stanley.

但在2020年底，我儿子打电话给我，基本上是说，嘿。

But in 2020, at the, let's say, the end of the year, my son called me up and basically said, hey.

我的加密货币账户已经涨到2万美元了。

I'm up to $20,000 in my in my, crypto account.

我当时就想，等等。

I'm like, wait a second.

你不是只投了700美元进去吗？

Didn't you put $700 into this?

他说，是啊。

He goes, yeah.

我赚了很多钱。

I I've made a lot of money.

我只记得当时坐在那里想，好吧。

And I and I just remember sitting there going, okay.

行吧。

Alright.

这周末我们去滑雪。

We're going skiing this weekend.

我们开车去了卡茨基尔山，我让他——我曾有过数百名为我工作的投资组合经理或交易员管理资金——他把所有持仓都给我看了。

We drove to the Catskills, and I had him I've had hundreds of people work for me who manage money either as portfolio managers or traders, and he gave me all of his positions.

而他讲述的经历简直令人难以置信。

And he had a story that was unbelievable.

那时他才13岁。

He was 13 at the time.

天啊。

Oh my gosh.

这些都不是比特币。

Now these were none of them were Bitcoin.

它们现在都是毫无价值的代币，或者说大部分都一文不值。

They were all tokens that now are worthless, or most of them were worthless.

他一路涨到了8万，然后又跌到了700。

He made it all the way up to 80,000, and then it went down to 700.

但最有趣的是

But the thing that was most interesting is

他又把它写回

He wrote it back down to

7千。

7,000.

现在价值几千，但请注意，他又全部写了回去。

It's now in the thousands, but, again, he wrote it all the way back down.

对我来说，我一直跟他说，你怎么不把至少三分之一转到比特币上？

And to me, I kept telling him, how are you not taking at least a third of it moving it to Bitcoin?

比如，做点什么...是啊。

Like, do something that's Yeah.

他紧盯目标，一切都很顺利。

Had his eyes on the prize, and everything was good.

所以他大获成功，利用了他有充足时间弥补的优势。

So he blew up, took advantage of the fact that he had a long time to make it up.

他现在把这段经历写进了所有大学简历里。

He uses it on all his college resumes and everything at this point.

他现在是大二学生。

He's now a sophomore in college.

哇。

Wow.

但当他告诉我这个故事时，真正让我惊讶的是他熟知所有术语，我问过他这些知识从哪来的。

But when he told me the story, it was really more that he knew all about the names, and I asked him where this came from.

他说，你什么意思？

He's like, what do mean?

我说，你刚刚给了我关于为什么长期持有这些代币的精彩分析。

I'm like, you just gave me, like, great analysis on why you're long these tokens.

你从哪儿得到这些信息的？

Where did you get that information from?

因为我从没听说过这些代币，也不知道去哪获取这类信息。

Because I never heard of the tokens, but I didn't know where to get that kind of information.

是的。

Yeah.

我在彭博社工作。

I'm on a Bloomberg.

那不存在。

That doesn't exist.

是的。

Yeah.

他告诉我他是从Reddit和X（原推特）上获取这些信息的。

And what he told me was he got it from Reddit and X.

他当时才13岁，我意识到这里面有些门道，因为我儿子在玩《堡垒之夜》时学会了如何开通钱包并进行各种投资操作，我当时就觉得，这和我熟悉的世界完全不同

And so he's 13 years old, and I went, there's something here because my son, who was playing Fortnite and had figured out how to open a wallet, do all this investing, I was like, this is a different world than what

是啊。

Yeah.

我所熟悉的那个世界。

I'm used to.

于是在返程路上以及接下来那个周末我们再去滑雪时，我听了大约七个小时的迈克尔·塞勒访谈。

So on the drive back and then the subsequent weekend when we went skiing again, I listened to about seven hours of Michael Saylor interviews.

迈克尔·塞勒让我明白了两个关键点。

And what Michael Saylor did for me were two things.

对于那些不太了解迈克尔·塞勒的人——我平时常听彼得·迪亚曼蒂斯和Moonshots团队关于人工智能的讨论。

And for people who, you know, don't appreciate Michael Saylor, I regularly listen to Peter Diamandis and the crowd at Moonshots on artificial intelligence.

迈克尔·塞勒曾是彼得·迪亚曼蒂斯的室友。

Michael Saylor was a roommate of Peter Diamandis.

嗯

Mhmm.

迈克尔·塞勒就读于麻省理工学院。

Michael Saylor went to MIT.

迈克尔·塞勒是个非常聪明的人，他既有创新思维，又讲述了一个与我观点共鸣的故事——关于标普500指数中企业正在经历的僵尸化现象，而他自己的公司也曾是其中一员。

Michael Saylor is a really smart person, and he had the innovation side, but he also told me a story that resonated with what I talked about, which is the zombification of companies that was going on in the S and P 500, and he was one of them.

是啊

Yeah.

他的公司当时正逐渐僵尸化，他公开谈论过：如果你成了僵尸企业，就需要购买比特币来拯救业务。

His company was becoming a zombie, and he talks openly about if you're a zombie, you need to buy Bitcoin and save your business.

他当时向我解释货币贬值的角度时，不仅表述清晰，而且在做出决策并说服董事会之前，已经深入研究过金融史。

And the way he explained it to me, which at that time was about the debasement side, was not only articulate, but he had studied the history of finance before he made the decision and sold it to his board.

随着我越来越多地聆听他的观点，当时创新与宏观经济的交汇点确实让我越来越感兴趣。

And so as I was listening to him more and more, I became more interested as literally the nexus of innovation and macro at that time.

我本来就是彼得·戴曼迪斯和奇点大学的忠实拥趸。

I was already a big Peter Diamandis and Singularity University person.

随后，当ChatGPT推出时，那一刻我决定，好吧。

Subsequently, when a when ChatGPT was launched, that was the moment that I decided, okay.

没人会意识到这一点。

No one's gonna know realize this.

但从我的儿子迈克尔到迈克尔·塞勒，再到ChatGPT，这是比特币的关键时刻——它是最纯粹的人工智能交易，因为杰夫·布斯所谈论的整个创新通缩的终点就是人工智能。

But from Michael's my son to Michael Sailor to ChatGPT, this is the moment for Bitcoin where it is the purest artificial intelligence trade because the end of this whole innovation deflation that Jeff Booth has talked about is artificial intelligence.

这太有意思了。

That is so fascinating.

我不知道迈克尔·塞勒对你的历程影响这么大。

I didn't know that Michael Saylor was so influential in your journey.

我是说，他对很多人都是如此。

I mean, he has been for so many people.

他的股票今年表现不佳。

His stock has not performed well this year.

显然，它放大了比特币的影响，而我们一直在震荡前行。

Obviously, it's amplified Bitcoin, and we've been chopping along.

你对MSTR作为投资以及优先股有什么看法？

What do you think about MSTR as an investment as well as the preferreds?

我长期持有MSTR。

I'm long MSTR.

我在下跌途中还加仓了。

I've bought more on the way down.

我确实认为它应该始终保持溢价，所以我并不认同负资产净值派或其他那些观点。

I do believe it should always have a premium, so I'm not a negative MNAV guy or any of these things.

原因在于我相信两件事。

The reason is because I'm believing two things.

一是全球数字资本将发生变革。

One is that the digital capital of the world is gonna change.

随着这种变革，持有最多比特币的企业将获得其他企业无法获得的商业优势。

And as it changes, someone that owns the most Bitcoin gets to do things with their business that they otherwise wouldn't be able to do.

我们必须达到比特币真正被用作抵押品、被实际应用的阶段，这些目标才能实现。

We have to get to that point where Bitcoin is actually used for collateral, where it's used for things, then it can be done in this.

他已经展现出在结构化产品方面的创造力，并通过一种大多数人都能投资的工具来实现这一点。

He's already shown that he's creative in terms of structured products and delivering this in a vehicle that most people can invest in.

所以我信任所有这些投资工具。

So I believe in all of the vehicles.

我相信它会存在溢价，因为最终就像股票有市盈率一样，它也会有。

I believe it'll have a premium because eventually, just like stocks have a PE, it will.

因此我完全认同这个理念，也理解为何传统法币世界一方面认为这是骗局，并相信它应该归零。

So I I buy into the whole concept, and I understand why on the one side, the traditional fiat world thinks it's a scam, and they believe it should go to zero.

而另一方面，它包含两个组成部分——这也是我想对所有今年可能感到失望的人说的话。

And then on the other side, it has two components to it, and this is the thing I wanna say to everyone who's maybe disappointed this year.

是的。

Yes.

它既有比特币属性，也有波动性属性。

It has the Bitcoin side, but it also has the volatility side.

他已经通过出售足够的波动性来压缩它。

He has sold enough volatility to compress it.

所以当你把比特币原教旨主义者的抛售与——我们简化一下——iBit资金流入相比较时，嗯哼。

So when you take the Bitcoin OG selling versus, let's just simplify it and say, iBit inflows Mhmm.

而它们持续这样发展下去，实际上是在压制波动性。

And they just keep going like this, well, you're depressing volatility.

他的股票相对于比特币应该下跌，因为存在波动性成分。

His stock should be going down relative to Bitcoin because there's a volatility component.

我仍然相信最终比特币会出现一次大规模空头挤压，根据我的交易历史判断，这很快就会发生。

I still believe eventually we will have a major short squeeze in Bitcoin, and I think in my history of trading markets, that will occur soon.

因为当你在一个区间内交易且波动性下降时，如果再创新高并突破区间，人们开始涌入，最终会耗尽卖家。

Because when you trade in a range and volatility declines, if you make another high and you start going through it and people start jumping into it, it does have it'll run out of sellers.

我要说的是，每次原教旨主义者抛售时——假设每个iBit买家加起来每天有一千个买家。

And that's the one thing I will say is every time an OG seller sells to let's assume that every iBit buyer, when you add them up in a day, is a thousand buyers.

那么你有一个卖家和一千个零散的买家。

So you have one seller and you have a thousand buyers, little tiny things.

这些...他们从一开始就在进行资产配置。

Those those they're allocating from a start.

他们不会卖的。

They're not gonna sell.

所以一旦你消化完所有这些抛售，市场上就不会再有卖家了，我认为迈克尔也明白这一点。

So once you get through all of that selling from there's not gonna be anybody left to sell, and I think Michael knows that.

这就是为什么当他说比特币市值将超过黄金时，我相信会实现，而且这必然发生在其他创新股票表现不佳、人们寻求投资组合多元化的时期。

And that's why when he says it'll get above gold's, I believe it'll be above gold's market cap, and I believe it has to happen at a time when there's no other innovation stocks that are working, and people are looking to diversify their portfolio.

如果再结合我对明年的预测——由于AI药物研发，我们将攻克癌症——一旦实现这点，瑞克的观点也会成为热议话题。

And if you add in my thoughts on next year will be a we're curing cancer thought, because of AI drug discovery, once you get to that, then Rick's thing starts to become more of a topic of conversation too.

你说得很对，目前比特币的基本面非常强劲，这种不对称的收益风险比，现在正是入场的好时机。

Well, you make some great points because the fundamentals are so strong right now when it comes to Bitcoin, and the asymmetric opportunity, risk reward at this this is a great time to actually get in.

如果你对比特币储备公司感兴趣，现在也可能是投资它们的最佳时机。

And if you're interested in the Bitcoin treasury companies, it's arguably a great time for those as well.

你认为比特币会变成人们被动投资、甚至不去思考的资产，还是会出现像2021年那样全民抢购现货比特币的热潮？

Do you think that Bitcoin will be something that people invest in more passively where they don't even think about it, or do you think that we will see a surge again of, like, everyone wanting to own spot Bitcoin like they did in 2021?

我认为会有一部分这样的现象。

I think you'll have some of that.

我认为大部分需求将再次来自全球范围内的持有者和买家。

I think most of that will come from, again, the the holders and the buyers that are happening around the globe.

我确实真心认为，当有70亿人想要逃离自己的国家时。

I really do mean what I say when there's 7,000,000,000 people who who want to escape their country.

对。

Right.

其实我从未在播客中提过这事，所以免费告诉你吧。

And I've actually never said this on on a podcast, so I'll give it to you free.

大约四年前，我在加州迈克尔·米尔肯的家中与他有过一次关于美元的对话。

I I had a conversation with Michael Milken about four years ago out at his house in California, and we were talking about the dollar.

那其实是在新冠疫情之前，也就是2019年。

And I was actually, it was more it was before COVID, so this was 2019.

这对故事背景很重要，因为我当时正在向他阐述观点，我们偶尔会这样交流。

And it's important for the story because I was telling him, and we would do this occasionally.

我们大概进行过两次辩论式的对话，我会在其中分享自己的见解。

We I think we had two conversations where we would debate, and I would share my views.

他会分享他的观点。

He would share his.

我对很多事情都有非常坚定的看法，这些看法基于大量数据，而他也有很多基于数据的强烈观点。

And I have very strong views on things that come with a lot of data, and he has a lot of strong views that come from data.

但在美元这个话题上，他瞬间说服我改变了对美元的某种看法，这种看法正是许多比特币持有者的思维方式。

But on the dollar theme, he convinced me instantaneously to stop thinking of the dollar a certain way, which is the way a lot of people with Bitcoin think about it.

所以他的观点是，乔迪，如果我们明天开放边境，给全球所有人一天时间来美国，会有75亿人排队入境。

So his point was, Jordy, if we open the borders tomorrow and gave everyone one day around the planet to come to America, we'd have a line of seven and a half billion people to come in.

他刚说完这句话，我就完全认同了。

And the second he said it, I completely agree.

无论人们对移民持何种观点，人们想来这里是有原因的。

Whatever people's views on immigration are, people want to come here, and they want to come here for a reason.

如果你像我一样在巴西等海外生活过，就会对此深有共鸣。

And if you've lived overseas like I have in Brazil, it resonated with me.

我认为某种程度上人们对比特币的看法，就像我们美国人记忆中的美国——一个自由的国度，一个政府不会像我国那样处处压制你的地方。

I think that is the way people think of Bitcoin to a degree, is the way we as Americans remember America as this place of freedom, this place to go where the government literally is not on top of you the way it was in my country.

因此比特币仍将是人们趋之若鹜的避风港，我依然认为全球75亿人最终会以极快速度将资金投入其中。

So Bitcoin is still gonna be a place that people are gonna go into, and I still think that seven and a half billion people on the planet will eventually be putting money in at a fast pace.

在我看来稳定币将以极其巨大的规模加速这一进程，这就是为什么我相信比特币当前正经历的网络效应，与那些已成为我们投资组合重要组成部分的平台股（如果我们持有标普500）所经历的网络效应如出一辙。

Stablecoins to me are gonna accelerate that move in a very, very big way, and that's why I believe in the network effects for Bitcoin right now as the same thing that happened in the network effects for all the platform stocks that have become major parts of all of our portfolios if we own the S and P 500.

比特币玩家喝牛奶吗？

Is milk in a Bitcoiner?

我认为我们当时没讨论这个，因为那时这不是关注重点。

I don't think we talked about it because at that time, it was not a focal point.

如果要我猜测的话，我会说不喝。

If I had to guess, I would say no.

有意思。

Interesting.

这只是我个人的猜测。

It's just just a guess on my part.

自那天后我就再没见过他们，但那是我人生中非常难忘的时刻，因为那是一个半小时的深刻对话。

I haven't seen them since that day, but that was one of that was a very memorable point in my life because it was an hour and a half.

那是一场非常激烈的辩论。

It was a very big debate.

很多讨论都涉及到债务问题。

A lot of it got into debt.

很多内容都涉及我对指数级创新的观点。

A lot of it got into my views on exponential innovation.

在那一点上我赢了。

I won on that one.

他在那件事上输了，因为他是个债务型人格。

He lost on that one because he's a debt person.

我告诉过他债务会持续增长，而企业债务实际上会下降，现在已经被政府债务取代了。

I told him it would just keep going and that corporate debt would actually go down, and it's been replaced by government debt.

嗯。

Mhmm.

但我觉得我不清楚他对比特币的看法是什么。

But I think I don't know what his views on Bitcoin are.

从全球视角来看，这些货币的通货膨胀率都远高于美元。

Well, if you think about the global aspect, all these currencies are inflating at rates far higher than the dollar.

我们已目睹某些地区发生恶性通胀事件，比如黎巴嫩和委内瑞拉的危机。

I mean, we've seen hyperinflation events in certain places, crises in Lebanon and Venezuela.

那为什么比特币的采用率没有更高呢？

So why isn't the adoption rate of Bitcoin higher?

它本可作为救命稻草，但人们似乎更倾向于逃向美元而非比特币。

It is there as a lifeline, but it seems like people have almost been fleeing to the dollar more than Bitcoin.

首先，比特币持有者数量一直在持续增加。

Well, first of all, Bitcoin holders just continue to increase.

这个趋势从未停止。

So it hasn't stopped.

我认为16z发布了他们的加密行业现状报告，这是份我每年必读的报告，我刚看完。

And I think a 16 z put out their state of crypto, which is a report that I like to read every year, and I just went through it.

本周我会在我的YouTube频道上分享其中大量内容。

I'll include a lot of it on on on my my YouTube this week.

他们特别强调了全球范围内持有者数量持续增长的事实，尤其是在其他国家。

And they highlight the fact that the holders around the globe continue to increase, particularly in in other countries.

我确实认为稳定币在某一方面有轻微的负面影响，因为如果你在阿根廷，想要保存你的资金，基本上有两种选择。

I do think stablecoin has a slight negative on one aspect because if you're in Argentina and you wanna save the money you have, you have two choices, let's say.

你可以选择稳定币，美元背书的稳定币，或者选择比特币。

You have stablecoin, dollar backed stablecoin, you have Bitcoin.

是的。

Yeah.

既然现在有了美元背书的稳定币，如果你只想把钱放在一个没有波动性的安全地方，你已经有了这个选择。

Well, now that you have a dollar backed stablecoin, if you just want to put it in someplace safe where there's no volatility, you got it.

所以如果你来自一个货币可能贬值90%的地方，稳定币会成为解决方案的一部分。

And so if you're going from a place where it could devalue by 90%, stablecoin will be part.

但最终会发生的是，他们也会想要积累财富，他们会想，哦，我也想要赚钱。

But eventually, what will happen is they'll want to accrue wealth too, and they'll be like, oh, I want to make money too.

我不想只是持有它。

I don't want to just hold it.

那我就拿其中一部分资金转移进去

So let me take a percentage of that and move it in.

这种情况在美国很正常，我们也讨论过

So the normal and we talk about that in The US.

阿根廷的稳定币在美国对应的是什么？

What is a a US version of stablecoin for Argentina?

那就是货币市场基金

It's called money market funds.

对

Yeah.

资金就会流入货币市场基金

And the money market goes in there.

所以时不时会有人说资金要撤离货币市场基金了

And so every now and then, people will be, oh, the money's gonna leave money market funds.

要转向风险资产了

It's gonna go into risk assets.

关键在于，我认为第一步是让这些国家将资金和汇款转移到稳定币中。

That's the whole point is I think the first step is for these countries to move money and remittances into stablecoins.

一旦他们建立了钱包，接下来很自然地就会想，我要买点别的什么。

And then once they have a wallet set up, it's just a normal thing to be like, I want to buy something else.

让我把钱转到这个里面。

Let me move it into this.

代币化将带来的变化是，它会增强人们投资其他资产的能力。

What will happen with tokenization is that'll increase the ability for people to do other assets.

对我来说，最妙的是——我已经多次说过——AI代理是比特币迎来的最伟大的事物。

The beauty is for me, and I've said this multiple times, AI agents are the greatest thing to come to Bitcoin.

它们将进行更多数字化交易，基于事实和现实而非情感做出决策。

They will be transacting more digital, making decisions that are based on truth and reality, not emotion.

嗯。

Mhmm.

为什么传统金融界的人不持有比特币？

Why don't traditional finance people own Bitcoin?

他们说他们喜欢高夏普比率。

They say they love good Sharpe ratios.

这不是真的，否则他们就会把大量资金投入比特币。

That's not true because then they'd have a lot of their money in Bitcoin.

他们实际上在做情绪化的决定，因为他们编造了这种说法——因为最让人害怕的是，这又回到你关于AI泡沫的问题，为什么人们把这比作互联网泡沫？

They're actually making emotional decisions because they've created this narrative because the one thing that scares people, and this goes back to your question about AI bubble, why do people compare this to the .com bubble?

如果从未有过互联网泡沫，他们就不会拿这个来比较。

They wouldn't compare it to the .com bubble if there never was a .com bubble.

所以你只有一个数据点，人们就说'这和互联网泡沫一模一样'。

So you have one data point, and people go, this is just like the .com bubble.

这和互联网泡沫根本不一样。

It's not just like the .com bubble.

是啊。

Yeah.

有件事上了头条，我很想听听你的看法，就是住房 affordability 危机。

One thing that's in the headlines that I would love to get your thoughts on is just the housing affordability crisis.

除了比特币之外，虽然以比特币计价的房屋正在变得更便宜。

So aside from Bitcoin, although homes are getting cheaper priced at Bitcoin.

但显然，政府提出了所有这些想法——五十年期抵押贷款、可转移抵押贷款。

But obviously, the administration putting out all these ideas fifty year mortgage, portable mortgages.

我只是想听听你对如何真正提高住房可负担性的看法，因为年轻人确实感到被高价拒之门外。

And I just wanted to get your thoughts on what will make housing actually more affordable because young people really do feel priced out.

他们越来越多地成为租房者，而且觉得房租也占收入的很大一部分。

They're increasingly renters, and they feel like rent is also just a massive portion of their income.

那么我们该如何解决这个问题？

So how do we how do we fix that issue?

短期内，我看不到情况会显著好转的任何可能性。

In the near term, I don't see any chance that it gets significantly better.

我确实认为这完全与通货紧缩有关，但不是人们担心的那种通货紧缩。

I do believe it's all about deflation, but not the deflation that people worry about.

我认为我们正处于物价开始承受显著下行压力的初期阶段。

I believe we're on the beginning stages of significant pressure on things to come down.

租金正在下降。

Rents are coming down.

所以房地产市场已经在某种程度上趋于疲软。

So the housing market is already kind of softening as it is.

基于新发现，药品价格将会下降。

Drug prices are gonna come down based discovery.

因此政府正专注于这个问题。

So the administration is focused on this.

医疗保健领域是仍存在大量通胀的领域。

The health care side is a lot of the inflation that's still there.

所以政府介入的领域——教育、医疗和住房——都存在问题。

So where the government has been involved, education, health care, and also housing has been a problem.

我认为所有这些小问题都不会改变整体局面。

I think all of these little things are not going to change the puzzle.

如果美联储明年降息100个基点，通过降低抵押贷款利率，这将极大帮助年轻人。

If the Fed lowers rates by a 100 basis points next year, that will absolutely help young people by moving mortgages lower.

我确实认为其中一些措施，尤其是可携带抵押贷款这个概念，我一直认同这是个解决方案。

I do think some of these things, and I think the portable mortgage thing has always been an answer that I agree with.

安东尼在我们座谈时曾讨论过这个议题，他是我记忆中第一个提出这个观点的人，那是在几个月前，当时我就认为这应该实现。

Anthony has talked about it when when we've sat down, and he was the first person I actually heard talk about it, and this was months ago, where I do believe it should happen.

我认为如果他们能找到实施方法，民主党和共和党都应该对此达成共识。

I think if they can find a way to do this, both Democrats and Republicans should agree on it.

考虑到中期选举，我认为我们必须在住房问题上采取必要行动。

I think because of the midterms, we will do something in housing that has to happen.

关于你提到的何时才能真正见效这一点。

To your point of when does it actually get to the point where it actually works.

民众都清楚这个道理。

So people know this.

唯一能实现这一目标的途径就是加速人工智能的发展。

The only way it gets there is with the acceleration of AI.

当我们拥有人形机器人时，建房成本将大幅下降。

When we have humanoids, the cost of building a house will go down significantly.

如果建房成本大幅下降，那么房价也会下降。

And if the cost of building a house goes down significantly, the cost of the house goes down.

所以我们还要再等五年，这个过程才会开始。

So we have a we have another five years to wait before that process kicks in.

因此在过渡期间，在指数级创新带来通缩之前，政府正在采取的措施，正如杰夫提到的，如果这种情况发生，一切都会朝着好的方向发展。

So in the interim, what the government is doing before deflation actually sets in from exponential innovation, to Jeff's point, if you can have that happen, everything kind of works out in a good way.

这最终会实现的。

It will happen eventually.

只是需要一些时间。

It's just gonna take some time.

你可能会不同意我的观点，但想到人形机器人建造房屋，我只想到那种反乌托邦的场景。

You might disagree with me, but thinking about humanoid robots building houses, I'm just thinking of just this dystopian, like, everything looks the same, square, colorless.

我不知道。

I don't know.

我只是想回到人们建造伟大建筑的时代。

I just I wanna go back to the times where people built great buildings.

那些房子美丽多彩，经受住了时间的考验，而现在的建筑呢，天哪。

The houses were beautiful and colorful and they withstood the test of time and now, gosh, construction.

现在的建筑太廉价了，每隔几年就得更换东西，我无法想象AI带来的大规模生产。

It's so fiat and you have to replace things every few years and I can't imagine AI, just the mass production aspect of it.

我...我不知道。

I I I don't know.

我想我更喜欢那些工艺制品，你知道的，我们祖先手工制作的东西。

I I guess I like things when they're artisan, you know, handmade by our our ancestors.

娜塔莉，你会和朋友出去吃饭吗？

Do you go out to dinner with friends, Natalie?

会的。

I do.

好的。

Okay.

你会环顾周围的其他餐桌吗？

Do you look around at the tables around you?

是啊。

Yeah.

很多人只是埋头玩手机。

A lot of people are just sitting in their phones.

你知道什么时候没这种情况吗？

You know when that didn't happen?

1997年、1998年那会儿。

1997, 1998.

我们会适应的。

We adapt.

对吧？

Okay?

最初看到人们戴着耳机在街上自言自语时，我特别反感。

I hated initially when I saw people talking out on the streets with the little cords on, and it annoyed me.

现在我自己也会戴着AirPods在街上和ChatGPT练习演讲。

And now I do present practice presentations when I'm out in the street with my AirPods talking to ChatGPT.

是啊。

So Yeah.

世界在变化。

The world changes.

我知道。

I know.

感觉不太好。

It feels bad.

我同意你的观点，但在餐厅玩手机这事，我不这么做。

And I agree with you, but the phone thing at the restaurants, I don't do it.

我讨厌这样。

I I hate it.

这是冥想的一面。

That's the meditation side.

每个人都需要冥想。

Everyone needs to meditate.

你现在正在深呼吸。

You're taking a deep breath right now.

这样很好。

It's good.

嗯，我看到有个女人在演示Facebook的元宇宙眼镜，你知道的，就是做一些特定手势然后四处走动，我想屏幕上应该能看到些东西。

Well, I I saw this woman doing the the tutorial of the Facebook meta glasses, you know, and you make certain gestures and you walk around and I guess you can see something in the screen.

我敢说我们很快会看到这样的场景：人们只是机械地做着动作，透过眼镜看东西，但他们实际上并没有在看你。

And I'm sure we're about to start seeing that where people are just doing motions and they're looking through the glasses but they're not they're not looking at you.

他们盯着屏幕上即将出现的内容，我只是...不知道怎么说。

They're staring at something coming up to the coming up at the on the screen and I just I don't know.

我是说，我想这就是时代的标志吧。

I mean, I guess it's the sign of the times.

一切都在进化改变。

Everything evolves and changes.

你刚才提到的事情真的会让人很困扰。

This is so you just mentioned something that's gonna really bother people.

如果你掏出手机这样假装给别人拍照，对方可没同意让你拍。

So if you take your phone out and you go like this and pretend like you're taking a photo of someone, well, you didn't give approval for that.

是啊。

Yeah.

眼镜现在就能做到这种事了。

For the glasses, you can already do that.

所以现在已经到了隐私完全丧失的地步。

So it's come to the point where privacy is completely lost.

我认为这些就是生活中让人走到这一步的问题。

And I think these are the issues that come on in life that get people there.

人形机器人正在侵犯隐私。

Humanoids are invading privacy.

手机正在侵犯隐私。

Phones are invading privacy.

所有东西都在侵犯隐私。

Everything's invading privacy.

嗯，这模糊了政府和监管应该如何介入的界限，因为我通常是个主张不干涉的人。

Well, and it blurs the lines of how should government and regulation get involved, because I'm normally someone that's very hands off.

是的。

Yep.

但当技术更容易侵犯人们隐私时，总得有人做点什么，对吧？

But when you have technologies that more easily invade people's privacy, someone has to do something, right?

因为你可能戴着能记录他人的眼镜四处走动，这就不对了。

Because you could walk around with glasses that are recording people, and that's not right.

我觉得Meta眼镜有个小指示灯，如果它亮起，表示正在录像之类的，我不太确定。

And I think the metas, they have a little light, and if it turns on, if it's recording or something, I don't know.

但这一切发展得实在太快了，简直疯狂。

But it's just so crazy what what's happening so quickly.

我在缅因州有套房子。

So I have a home, and it's in Maine.

之所以选择缅因州，是因为那里人烟稀少。

The reason I have a home in Maine is because there's not many people there Yeah.

除了夏季的时候。

Except for the summertime.

你脱离现代生活了。

You're grid.

我过着与世隔绝的生活。

I'm off the grid.

我是个非常...我真的很努力远离科技。

I am a very I really try not to be around technology.

这就是为什么马特和我相处得这么不愉快。

That's why Matt and I get along so poorly.

是啊。

Yeah.

那很棒。

That's great.

不。

No.

但我确实喜欢待在缅因州，远离一切，因为这样我能过上相对正常的生活。

But I I do like to be in Maine and be away from everything because I can have kind of normal thing.

我喜欢滑雪，因为滑雪时——我以前总开玩笑说——

I love to ski because when you're skiing and I used to always joke.

就像，你知道我滑雪时能和多少人说话吗？

I'm like, you know how many people I talk to when I was skiing?

只有缆车上的人，而且只有当我在说话时，那些滑雪时没戴AirPods的人。

It's just the people on the chair lift, and it's just when I'm talking it's the ones who don't have their AirPods on as they're skiing.

我喜欢大自然，喜欢闲逛。

I like nature, and I like hanging around.

所以还是有办法远离科技或者找到平衡的。

So there is a way to get away from it or balance it out.

我只是觉得，如果人们不认为他们很快也会做同样的事，那就有点天真了。

I just think people are being a little naive if they don't think they'll be doing the same thing soon.

嗯，你刚刚让我想到一件事，因为我跟很多成功人士聊过，他们都有自己与世隔绝的小地方，还囤积了必需品以防万一。

Well, you just made me think of something because I've spoken to so many successful people who they have their little off grid place, and they've stockpiled their necessities just in case.

你知道，如果发生内乱，他们有自己的逃生计划。

You know, if if there's civil unrest, they have their escape plan.

你认为我们国家会走到这样一个地步吗——由于工人阶级感到极度沮丧和愤懑，认为精英阶层不配拥有现有财富，最终导致摩擦和政治不稳定升级为暴力冲突甚至革命？

Do you think that we're gonna come to a place in this country where there is this friction and political instability that gets to a level of violence and revolution because the the working class feels so frustrated and resentful, and they feel like the elites did not earn what they have, and it comes together in a big clash?

我认为这已经在发生了。

I think it's already happening.

只是它的表现形式不会像你描述的那样被归类。

It's just the version that you wouldn't categorize it the way you're describing it.

所以我想说的是，无论是政府派移民局突袭城市引发的冲突，还是暗杀事件，或是...嗯...

So I guess what I'd say is whether it's the government sending in ICE into cities and you see all this conflict going in there, whether it's people being assassinated, whether it's Mhmm.

投票支持社会主义，这些都是人们觉得自己无处容身的体现。

Voting for socialism, this is the version of people just not feeling like they have a place here.

当你提到净资产差异时，那正是问题所在。

When you mentioned the, you know, the the difference in net worth, that is the problem.

这就是我提到约瑟夫·熊彼特的原因。

That's why I brought up Joseph Schumpeter.

已经发展到那个程度了。

It it's gotten to that point.

现在你觉得情况会变得非常糟糕吗？

Now do I think it's going to get really bad?

不。

No.

我不这么认为。

I don't.

你不这么想？

You don't?

不。

No.

我不这么认为。

I don't.

我认为两极分化会持续下去。

I think it's gonna continue to be very polarizing.

摩擦会一直存在，但这就是我最初开始投资比特币的原因，也是我认为它应该成为每个人投资组合一部分的理由。

The friction will be there, but this is the reason why I started to originally invest in Bitcoin and why I think it should be in everyone's portfolio.

所以所有正在观看、喜欢娜塔莉但尚未投资比特币的人，你们需要在投资组合中配置一定比例，无论是1%、5%还是10%，至少对年轻人来说应该如此。

So everyone who's watching who enjoys Natalie, who does not invest in Bitcoin already, you need to have a percentage of your portfolio, whether it's 1%, 5%, 10%, at least for younger people.

这种观点认为，创新本身正在制造问题。

That is kind of the belief is that the innovation is creating the problem.

如果你回溯我的信念——我的祖母出生于1920年。

So if you go back to my belief, which is my grandmother was born in 1920.

我做过一次演讲，不是预...天啊。

I gave a presentation, not a pres oh my gosh.

我以银行家的思维为她做了悼词演讲。

I gave her eulogy presentation, thinking as a banker and something.

是的。

Yeah.

所以我为她致了悼词。

So I gave her eulogy.

她出生于1920年。

She was born in 1920.

想象一下她25岁前的生活有多么艰难。

So think about her life by the time she was 25 and how just horrible it was.

她经历了大萧条时期。

She lived through the Great Depression.

她连食物都难以获取。

She couldn't get food.

后来她在血汗工厂工作，为二战生产军服。

Then she worked in a sweatshop to help build or, make clothing for World War II.

25岁时，她已经历了所有这些苦难。

And so at 25, she's been through all of that.

她是我见过最善良的人。

She was the nicest person I ever met.

她是最富有同情心的人，甚至到了过分的地步。

She was the most caring, empathetic person to a fault.

她从不使用杠杆，还反复告诫我永远不要负债。

She didn't use any leverage, and she basically told me a million times to never take debt.

嗯。

Mhmm.

我曾经是个悲观主义者，直到某个时刻才明白她为何如此，这也印证了第四转折理论的合理性——你从那种极端困境中生存下来后，就会经历这种转变。

I I was a doom and gloom person up until a certain time, and then I started to realize the reason she was like that, and this is why the whole fourth turning is legitimate, you go from that extreme, living through this horrible life, and then you go through this.

这并不糟糕。

This is not bad.

我觉得在巴西圣保罗生活时，不得不戴着天美时手表假装身无分文的经历...确实。

And I think the fact that I lived in Sao Paulo, Brazil, and I literally had to wear a Timex watch and pretend like I had no money Yeah.

那才让我真正明白情况能有多糟。

Is when I really learned how bad it is.

这里并不糟糕。

It is not bad here.

虽然由于AI带来的反乌托邦特性，短期内情况不会明显好转，但我相信就像第四转折理论预言的那样，当我们度过这个阶段后，下一代将创造出更好的环境。

I don't think it's gonna get much better in the near term because of the dystopian nature of AI, but I do think when we come out of that, like the fourth turning says, I think the next generation will be creating a better environment.

这真的很有趣。

That's really interesting.

我是说，我突然想起了我已故的祖母，她出生于1927年。

I mean, I just thought of my late great late grandmother who was born in 1927.

那是在波兰。

This was in Poland.

你知道，她在一个非常压抑的环境中长大，经历了二战，只能吃土豆皮充饥。

You know, she grew up in a very oppressive environment and went through World War II, was eating potato skins.

那是他们唯一能负担得起的食物。

Was all that they could afford.

差点被送进集中营。

Almost taken to a concentration camp.

我是说，她经历了太多苦难。

I mean, just struggled so much.

来到这里后，在厨房工作，几乎不会说当地语言。

Came here, worked in kitchens, could barely speak the language.

她六十多岁时来到这里的。

She came here in her 60s.

刚来时对她来说非常非常艰难，但她挺过来了，总是精神饱满、非常快乐，工作到实在干不动为止，有着强烈的职业道德，每晚都做饭。

Very, very tough for her when she came, and she made it, she was always in such high spirits, so happy, worked until she couldn't possibly work anymore and had this strong work ethic, made meals every single night.

而如今，我们看到年轻人拥有各种电子设备、手机，喝着星巴克，却感到抑郁。

And today, we see young people who have their gadgets and their phone and their, you know, have their Starbucks, and they're depressed.

他们不想要家庭。

They don't want to have families.

我们面临着严重的心理健康危机。

We have a huge mental health crisis.

我们面临着严重的药物过量、阿片类药物危机。

We have a huge drug overdose, opioid crisis.

我是说，到底发生了什么？

I mean, what happened?

因为看起来前几代人在很多方面确实过得更加艰难，然而今天，拥有所有这些科技，人们却感觉毫无希望。

Because it seems like previous generations did have it a lot harder in so many ways, and yet today, with all these technologies, people are feeling like they have no hope.

所以我要归咎于科技，回到我们之前讨论的关于晚餐之类的话题。

So I will blame technology, and I'll go back to what we talked about with the dinners and stuff like that.

我认为我们确实已经到了科技扰乱就业的地步。

I do think we've reached a point where the technology has disrupted jobs.

它正在破坏人们的身份认同，让人们难以定义自我。

It's disrupting identities and people being able to say who they are.

你的祖母和我的祖母听起来很相似，她们都挺过来了。

Your grandmother and my grandmother, they sound very similar in the fact that they survived.

正因经历过磨难，最终...我是说，我祖母真的从不说任何人坏话。

And because they survived it, they eventually I mean, my grandmother literally had nothing bad to say about anybody.

是啊。

Yeah.

一样。

Same.

对。

Yeah.

她她非常慈爱，她对你的生活有重要影响吗？

She she was just very loving, and was she an important influence in your life?

噢，当然。

Oh, yeah.

是啊。

Yeah.

对我来说也一样。

Same same for me.

我父母在我高中时就离婚了，但我并不是，怎么说呢，计划中的孩子。

My parents got divorced when I was when when I was in high school, but I was not a, let's say, a plan child.

嗯。

Mhmm.

所以他们本来不打算结婚，但最后还是结了，而且经常吵架。

And so they weren't gonna get married, and then they ended up getting married, and they fought a lot.

最后我和住在同个镇上的祖母一起生活。

And I ended up with my grandmother who lived in the same town.

哦，哇。

Oh, wow.

因此她对我的思维方式产生了巨大影响，随着时间的推移，她变得无所畏惧，我相信你的祖母也是如此。

And so she had a huge influence on the way that I thought, and as time went on, she was fearless, which I'm sure your grandmother was too.

我确信这种无畏精神很大程度上影响了你，你在这个领域开创了自己的事业，完成了所有那些成就，你可以回顾并反思她，然后感叹：哇。

And I'm sure a lot of the fearlessness, you've created your own career in this, you've done all that stuff, you can look back and reflect on her and be like, wow.

她以同样的方式为我付出了很多。

She did a lot for me in the same way I did.

我认为这一代人没有那样的经历。

I think the generation doesn't have that.

我不认为他们的父母能讲述类似的故事。

I don't think their parents can tell a similar story.

我不认为当今这一代人的祖父母能有这样的经历。

I don't think their grandparents can of the of today's generation.

所以这要追溯到第四次转折。

So this goes back to the fourth turning.

我是说，我祖母活到了98岁。

I mean, my grandmother died at 98.

你知道吗？

You know?

我给她致了悼词。

I gave her eulogy.

那已经是七年前的事了。

It's now seven years ago.

这是个不同的时代——如果你的祖母去世而她出生于1950年，那与我们祖父母辈的情况截然不同。

It's a different it's a different time because if your grandmother dies and she was born in 1950, it's a different situation than what we saw with our grandparents.

所以我认为这些事情非常重要。

So I just think that stuff matters a lot.

正因如此，当我住在巴西时，甚至后来每年去中国旅行一个月做基层投资时，我发现他们离文化大革命并不遥远。

And that's why I say when I lived in Brazil and then even later when I traveled to China for a month of the year and I did grassroots kind of investing, they're not that far from the cultural revolution.

不同社会和地区仍在经历各自的版本。

So different societies and different places are still going through their own version.

在我看来，美利坚合众国所面临的这些问题都是富裕社会的问题。

It's just The United States Of America that these problems with are an affluent problem to me.

事实上，我们拥有了科技，却失去了人与人之间的社群联系，我认为这就是症结所在。

And the fact that we have technology, we've lost this community of people, I just think that's what's going on.

是啊。

Yeah.

我觉得这观点可能有点争议，但我认为经历挣扎很重要。

I mean, I feel like it's almost controversial, but I think that it's important to struggle.

我不喜欢这种受害者心态，好像所有事情都要迁就你和你的情绪。

And I don't like this victim mentality, and everything just needs to be accommodated to you and your emotions.

真的，我很反感这种态度。

Like, I don't like that.

这不是我受的教育方式。

That's not how I was raised.

我认为，你知道的，人就应该坚强起来。

I believe that, you know, someone should be tough you.