美国对委内瑞拉石油感兴趣，但不仅如此

近几个月来，委内瑞拉与美国之间的紧张局势不断升级。

Tensions between Venezuela and The US have been growing and growing in recent months.

上周三的冲突焦点是石油问题。

And last Wednesday, the pressure point was oil.

你可能已经知道，我们刚刚在委内瑞拉海岸扣押了一艘油轮，一艘非常大的油轮。

As you probably know, we've just seized a tanker on the coast of Venezuela, large tanker, very large.

实际上是有史以来扣押的最大一艘。

Largest one ever seized, actually.

美国政府称这艘油轮满载着违反制裁令、准备运往黑市的非法石油。

The US government says the tanker was filled with illegal oil headed to the black market in violation of sanctions.

嗯，我想我们就扣着不放了。

Well, we keep it, I guess.

这次扣押行动是前所未有的，标志着两国对峙局势的升级。

The seizure was an unprecedented move and represents an escalation in the standoff between the two countries.

近几个月来，美国已在附近海域打击了近二十艘可疑毒品船只，对委内瑞拉实施新制裁，并增加了在加勒比海的海军存在。

In recent months, The US has struck nearly two dozen suspected drug boats in nearby waters, issued new sanctions targeting Venezuela, and increased its naval presence in The Caribbean.

特朗普表示这场冲突部分原因是移民涌入美国。

Trump says this conflict is in part because of immigration to The US.

嗯，这涉及很多因素，但其中一个关键原因是他们允许数百万人从监狱、帮派、毒贩和精神机构涌入我国，按比例算可能比其他任何国家都多。

Well, it's about a lot of things, but one of the things it's about is the fact that they've allowed millions of people to come into our country from their prisons, from gangs, from drug dealers, and from mental institutions, probably proportionately more than anybody else.

这些人来自

They came in from

与此同时，委内瑞拉领导人尼古拉斯·马杜罗表示美国只对其国家的石油储备感兴趣。

Meanwhile, Venezuela's leader Nicolas Maduro says The US is only interested in his country's oil reserves.

上周四，他将扣押油轮比作加勒比海盗，称美国的行为是犯罪且非法的。

Last Thursday, he compared the seizure of the tanker to pirates of The Caribbean, saying The US acted criminally and illegally.

想想看。

Consider this.

美国长期以来在委内瑞拉拥有经济和政治利益，而这个南美国家的石油工业一直是双边关系的关键部分。

The US has long had economic and political interests in Venezuela, and the oil industry of the South American nation has been a key part of that relationship.

这里是NPR，我是斯科特·德特罗。

From NPR, I'm Scott Detreau.

我是艾拉·格拉斯。

This is Ira Glass.

在《美国生活》节目中，我们讲述关于事物变化的种种故事。

On This American Life, we tell stories about when things change.

就像这位大卫先生，他的人生突然遭遇了一个剧烈、意外且非常不愉快的转折。

Like for this guy, David, whose entire life took a sharp, unexpected, and very unpleasant turn.

我确实花了一段时间才意识到，这基本上是因为猴子按下了按钮。

And it did take me a while to realize that it's basically because the monkey pressed the button.

没错。

That's right.

就因为猴子按下了按钮。

Because the monkey pressed the button.

每周为你带来意想不到的故事，无论你在哪里收听播客。

Surprising stories every week wherever you get your podcasts.

今年是电影的丰收年，我们知道你不可能全部看完。

It's been a fantastic year for movies, and we know you can't see them all.

所以我们推荐一些可能被忽视的优秀电影，供你加入观影清单。

So we're recommending some great films that might have flown under the radar to add to your watch list.

请在NPR应用或你获取播客的任何平台收听《流行文化欢乐时光》。

Listen to pop culture happy hour in the NPR app or wherever you get your podcasts.

大多数时候，前列腺癌患者没有任何症状。

Most of the time, people with prostate cancer don't have any symptoms.

Montel Jordan就是这种情况。

That was the case for Montel Jordan.

我从来没有某天醒来突然觉得：你知道吗？

There was nothing that I woke up one day and said, you know what?

我觉得自己得了癌症。

I think I have can.

就像，完全没有征兆。

Like, there was no indicator.

这就是为什么定期筛查如此重要。

And that's why it's so important to get routine screenings.

在Life Kit播客中，我们将探讨前列腺癌的风险因素以及确诊后可以采取的措施。

On the Life Kit podcast, we'll talk about risk factors for prostate cancer and what you can do if you're diagnosed.

请在NPR应用或您获取播客的平台收听。

Listen on the NPR app or wherever you get your podcasts.

这里是NPR的《考虑一下》节目。

It's consider this from NPR.

委内瑞拉拥有全球最大的石油储备之一，其政权被指控依赖非法油轮规避制裁，美国上周就扣押了这样一艘油轮。

Venezuela has one of the biggest oil reserves in the world, and its regime has been accused of relying on illicit tankers like the one The US seized last week to get around sanctions.

其目的是将原油走私进入全球供应链。

The goal, to smuggle crude oil into global supply chains.

但事情为何会发展到这一步？

But how did we get to this point?

为了帮我们解析这个问题，我们联系了弗朗西斯科·莫纳尔迪。

To help us break that down, we called Francisco Monaldi.

他是莱斯大学贝克研究所拉丁美洲能源项目的主任。

He's the director of the Latin American Energy Program at the Baker Institute at Rice University.

感谢接受我们的采访。

Thanks for talking to us.

谢谢邀请我。

Thank you for inviting me.

就美军而言，你知道的，从直升机上滑绳而下扣押油轮，你以前见过类似的情况吗？

In terms of US troops, you know, sliding down ropes from helicopters to seize an oil tanker, have you ever seen anything like this before?

这在委内瑞拉案例中是从未发生过的。

It's something that has not happened in the case of Venezuela.

虽然有过与制裁伊朗船只相关的其他事件，但这次是史无前例的，因为这是美国首次实施类似封锁的信号——意味着未来从委内瑞拉出发的油轮可能都会面临扣押。

There have been other events related to sanction Iranian vessels, but this is unprecedented in that is the first time that The US sort of signaling blockade, meaning that the tankers coming out of Venezuela are potentially gonna be subject to seizures in the future.

让我们把时间倒回很久以前，从更宏观的视角来看待当前讨论的这个背景。

Let's rewind way back, zoom way out in terms of the context we're talking about this.

从历史角度看，美国为何以及多大程度上关注委内瑞拉的石油生产，对此最合理的解释是什么？

Historically, what's the best way to think about why and how much The US has focused in on Venezuela's oil production?

嗯，自一个世纪前委内瑞拉开始石油生产以来，美国公司就一直是该国的主要参与者。

Well, The US companies have been a major player in Venezuela since a century ago when oil production started.

1975年至19世纪初，委内瑞拉石油工业曾短暂国有化，当时国际石油公司撤离，但后来埃克森、康菲和雪佛兰等公司又重返市场。

There was a brief period when nationalization happened in the oil industry of Venezuela between 1975 and the early 19s in which the oil companies were not there, but then they came back, particularly Exxon, Conoco and Chevron.

随后查韦斯政府再次推行国有化，如今仅剩雪佛兰一家外资企业仍在运营。

But then there was a renationalization by Hugo Chavez, and only Chevron remains.

但雪佛兰仍是委内瑞拉的重要参与者，其产量约占该国出口总量的25%。

But it's a very big player in Venezuela producing about 25% of Venezuela's exports.

然而委内瑞拉虽拥有全球最大石油储量之一，实际产量却远低于储量规模。

And yet Venezuela has one of the biggest oil reserves in the world, but is a relatively small producer compared to the oil it has.

这种情况是否主要源于国有化后的经济孤立？还是另有原因？

Is that just because of of of the way that that it was economically isolated postnationalization, or what's going on there?

这是多重因素共同作用的结果。

It's a combination of things.

国家石油公司仍是主导力量，但其管理不善，政府过度抽取资源，且屡次违反与国际石油公司的协议。

The dominant player still is the national oil company, and the national oil company has been mismanaged, and there has been too much extraction of resources from the oil company to the government and reneging on the deals with international oil companies.

因此过去25年间，日产量从约360万桶暴跌至如今的100万桶左右。

And as a result, the production has declined in the last twenty five years from around 3,600,000 barrels to about a million barrels today.

当然，2020年开始的美国制裁也确实影响了石油行业。

Of course, US sanctions starting in 2020 did also affect the oil industry.

那么如果美国坚持并继续打击这些黑市运输，你认为这会对委内瑞拉经济造成多大影响？要知道该国经济已经处于非常糟糕的境地。

So if The US follows through and continues to crack down on these black market shipments, how much do you think that that affects Venezuela's economy, which as we know is already in a terrible place?

首先可能导致委内瑞拉获得的油价下跌，因为他们必须提供大幅折扣才能让人愿意承担风险。

Well, it could produce first a decline on the price that Venezuela gets because they will have to offer very significant discounts for anyone to take the risks.

此外，如果有大量油轮不愿前往委内瑞拉装载石油，产量就会显著下降，进而导致收入和GDP大幅下滑，就像2020年制裁加剧和新冠疫情导致产量暴跌至不足现在一半时的情况。

In addition, of course, the volumes, if a significant number of tankers are not willing to go to Venezuela to load oil, and that could produce a significant decline in revenues and then in GDP, like the one that Venezuela had in 2020 when sanctions were increased and COVID led to a massive decline in production to less than half of what it is today.

这当然会对经济各方面产生重大影响，包括通货膨胀加剧，以及委内瑞拉人收入状况进一步恶化。

And that will, of course, have a significant impact in everything related to the economy, including an increase in inflation and, you know, other deteriorating income for Venezuelans.

我们一直在具体讨论能源行业，但从宏观角度来看当前美委之间的紧张关系...

You know, we've we've been talking about the energy industry specifically here, but just kind of big picture thinking about the tension between The US and Venezuela right now.

这涉及涉嫌毒品走私问题。

This is about alleged drug trafficking.

这还涉及选举舞弊问题，国际观察员普遍认为马杜罗政府无视了选举失败结果。

This is about election improprieties and the Maduro government, you know, ignoring widespread viewed as an election loss from from from international observers.

这些事情已经持续一段时间了。

All of those things have been going on for a while now.

你认为为什么特朗普政府现在如此关注委内瑞拉？

Why do you think there's such a focus on Venezuela right now coming from the Trump administration?

在我看来，这项政策是由国务卿马可·卢比奥推动的，他长期以来认为委内瑞拉和古巴是损害美国利益的邪恶角色，而毒品问题、犯罪问题和移民问题某种程度上成为了他与其他政府成员观点一致的途径，从而真正聚焦于推动政府更迭，让尼古拉斯·马杜罗下台。

It seems to me that the policy is being driven by secretary Marco Rubio, who has, for a long time thought that Venezuela and Cuba are nefarious actors against US interests, and the drug issue and the crime issue and the immigration issue sort of have been a way to align his views with others in the administration to really focus on producing a change in government that Nicolas Maduro leaves power.

因此他们希望在不需派遣地面部队的情况下实现这一目标，或者如果可能的话，仅通过在委内瑞拉施加可信的军事威胁来达成。

And so they want to do it without the need to put boots on the ground or if possible, just by putting a credible threat on what they might do in Venezuela.

当然，这次石油方面的施压似乎也是这场迫使马杜罗下台的运动的一部分，同时避免美国方面付出重大代价。

And of course, this oil side seems to be part of that pressure campaign to get Maduro out without having to pay any significant cost on The US side.

这位是莱斯大学贝克研究所拉丁美洲能源项目主任弗朗西斯科·莫纳尔迪。

That is Francisco Manaldi, director of the Latin American Energy Program at the Baker Institute at Rice University.

非常感谢您接受我们的采访。

Thanks so much for talking to us.

谢谢。

Thank you.

本期节目由伊娃·伯格和亚历杭德拉·马克斯·汉兹制作。

This episode was produced by Eva Berger and Alejandra Marquez Hanzi.

由莎拉·汉德尔编辑。

It was edited by Sarah Handel.

我们的执行制作人是萨米·扬迪甘。

Our executive producer is Sammy Yandigan.

这里是NPR的《Consider This》栏目。

It's Consider This from NPR.

我是斯科特·德特罗。

I'm Scott Detreau.

数字六七（six seven）是孩子们流行的梗，家长们正试图理解其中的含义。

Six, seven, like the numbers six and seven, is a kids meme that parents are trying to make sense of.

我爸正试图理解六七是什么梗。

My dad is trying to understand what six seven is.

我有点为这些父母感到难过。

I kinda feel bad for the parents.

但关于这两个数字，孩子们、父母们以及我们其他人是否还应该了解更多呢？

But is there more that kids, parents, and the rest of us should know about these two numbers?

要了解更多，请收听NPR应用程序或您获取播客的任何平台上的《It's Been a Minute》播客节目。

To find out, listen to the It's Been a Minute podcast on the NPR app or wherever you get your podcasts.