136：我接受《旁观者》杂志关于纳西姆·塔勒布的专访

形势已经逆转。

The tables have turned.

罗茜·格雷在本期播客中采访了我。

Rosie Gray interviews me in this episode of the podcast.

她就是那位为《旁观者》杂志撰写纳西姆·塔勒布最新人物特稿的记者。

She is the journalist who put together the most recent profile of Nisim Taleb that you might have seen feature in the spectator.

虽然对某些人来说这可能是旧闻，但为不知情者说明：正是通过纳西姆·塔勒布，我才最初涉足播客领域。

And while this might be old news to some of you, for those who don't know, it was actually via Nisimtaleb that I got into podcasting at all in the first place.

早在2020年，我创办了名为《纳西姆·塔勒布与插入播客》的小节目，试图通过漫谈来总结和讨论塔勒布五部曲中的有趣主题——按顺序包括《随机致富的傻瓜》《黑天鹅》《反脆弱》《利益的皮肤》和《非对称风险》。

Back in 2020, I created a little show called the Nisimtaleb and Inserted Podcast, which was my rambling attempt at surmising and discussing interesting themes and topics from Taleb's five book series, which include, in order, fooled by randomness, the black swan, the bed of the crusty, skin of the game, and antifragile.

实际上最后两部是《反脆弱》和《利益的皮肤》。

Actually, the last two Antifragile and skin of the game.

这个名为《纳西姆11号》的小节目虽然很少更新，但多年来却自然增长，更奇妙的是罗茜在撰写塔勒布人物特稿时偶然发现了它。

That little show, the nesimps 11 and so to podcast, experienced some organic growth over the years despite very rarely having any episodes published there, but it created this beautiful little moment of serendipity for me as it was discovered by Rosie during her investigation of Taleb for her profile.

当她联系我时，我既震惊又紧张。接下来的音频是经过剪辑的采访记录，罗茜为《旁观者》杂志撰写精彩的塔勒布特稿时采访了我，其中许多引述最终出现在了正式文章中。

I was shocked and overall quite nervous when she reached out to me, but the audio which follows is an edited recording of me being interviewed by Rosie for her wonderful spectator profile of Nasim Taleb, many quotes from which ended up appearing in the final article.

描述中有罗西的相关链接。

Links to Rosie in the description.

描述中有该人物简介的链接。

A link to the profile is in the description.

另外，朋友们，我正在努力扩大社交媒体影响力，所以已经开始在Instagram上发布片段和内容。

And as well, guys, I'm trying to grow my socials, so I've started posting clips and content on Instagram.

在那里关注我吧。

Follow me there.

当然，相关链接也在描述中。

A link to that, of course, is as well in the description.

当然，作为播客开场白，我必须提醒大家保持热情。

So, of course, it wouldn't be a podcast introduction without me reminding you to pump your juice.

闲话少说，下面就是罗西·格雷对我的采访内容。

But with absolutely no further ado, here is me being interviewed by Rosie Gray.

不如我们先从你的背景开始？简单介绍一下你自己，比如你是谁，来自哪里，以及你是如何开始接触塔勒布的著作的？

Why don't we start just, like, just fill me in a little bit on your background a little bit, you know, who you are, where you're from, and how did you kind of start getting into talent's work?

好的。

Okay.

酷。

Cool.

我是谁以及我来自哪里其实并不那么有趣。

I mean, who I am and where I'm from is is is not that interesting.

来自澳大利亚，现居瑞典。

Just from Australia, live in Sweden.

我是一个试图成为全职播客的人，但目前还是一家SaaS公司的客户经理。

Who I am is a someone who's trying to become a podcaster full time, but I'm a an account executive for for a SaaS company.

我是怎么接触到塔勒布的？

How did I get into Taleb?

那是在2018或2019年。

This was in 2018 or 2019.

我当时确实...

I had yeah.

我当时经常听伟大的Naval Ravikant的节目。

I was listening a lot to the great Naval Ravikant.

那时候，Naval推荐的所有内容我几乎都会去听或读。

And at the time, I would pretty much have listened to or read anything that Naval had suggested.

他曾经在一个加密货币活动的采访中，采访了这位有趣的黎巴嫩人纳西姆·塔勒布。

And he had he did an interview for some cryptocurrency event where he was interviewing this, you know, interesting Lebanese fellow, Nassim Taleb.

他在采访中说，纳西姆·姆·塔勒布的作品是那种一千年后仍会被传阅的类型，你知道，这来自我深深敬佩的Nimal Ravikan，可以说是极高的赞誉了。

And he said in the interview that Nassim Taleb's work is the type of stuff that will still be read a thousand years from now, you know, which is extraordinarily high praise from someone who I, you know, have deep deep admiration for, which is Nimal Ravikan.

所以，那大概是在2018、2019年，可能是2018年接近尾声的时候。

And so, yeah, that was 2018, 2019, probably the trailing embers of 2018.

然后我就买了《随机漫步的傻瓜》，完全被吸引住了。

And I I picked up then full by randomness, and I was just compelled.

你知道，我彻底沉迷其中。

You know, I was completely sucked in.

后来我发现，自己对于任何以有趣方式谈论随机性、机会、意外发现和概率的内容都毫无抵抗力——不是那种数学或科学的方式，而是一种有趣的、文化层面的表达。

You know, it turns out in hindsight, I have since discovered that I have got quite a weak spot for anything that talks about randomness, chance, you know, serendipity, probability in a fun sort of not mathematical way or scientific way, but in a fun, I don't know, cultural way.

这种描述方式可能很糟糕。

That's probably a terrible way to describe it.

不过确实。

But yeah.

读完《随机漫步的傻瓜》后

After fooled by randomness

就是说他不仅仅是从枯燥的统计学角度，而是从人们日常生活中的随机性和偶然性来讨论这些话题。

Talking about how it sort of not just in a sort of dry, like, statistical sense, but how he talks about randomness and chance, like, in people's daily lives.

对。

Yeah.

完全正确。

Exactly.

不是指概率在学术统计中的表达方式，而是如何将这些经验映射到日常生活中，从而以不同视角看世界。

Not not how probability is expressed, you know, statistically according to some academic setting, but how you can actually map those lessons onto your daily experience and start to see the world a little bit differently.

我在塔勒布的作品中100%体验到了这种感受。

And I 100% had that experience with Taleb.

于是我经历了全身随机性的洗礼，然后按顺序处理了剩下的部分。

So I went through full body randomness, and then I chopped the rest of the inserto you know, in order.

《黑天鹅》比《反脆弱》和《风险共担》更胜一筹。

So black swan better procrastis and antifragile skin in the game.

说真的，大概就两三周时间，我完全沉浸其中。

Within, seriously, within like two or three weeks, it was all I was doing.

你知道吗，我完全被吸引住了，之前从未读过这样的书。

You know, it was totally sucked in, and I'd never read anything like it before.

我听山姆·哈里斯用过这个比喻，说这就像给他大脑做了固件升级。

And I've heard Sam Harris use this metaphor before that it was, you know, like a firmware upgrade for his brain.

现在要说明，山姆·哈里斯绝对没对塔勒布说过这话。

Now, he definitely Sam Harris did not say that about Taleb.

他们之间有过节。

They have their own feud.

山姆·哈里斯是说他在大学里修的一门关于说谎的哲学课程。

Sam Harris said that about a university course he took on this philosophical subject of lying.

但我觉得这个比喻再贴切不过了，因为我阅读塔勒布的《随机生存的智慧》时也有同样的体验。

But I thought it was just a perfect way to put it, because I had I had the same experience with Taleb's Inserto.

它就像给大脑进行了一次固件升级。

It was like a firmware upgrade to the brain.

你知道吗，我在阅读前后看待世界的方式完全不同了。

You know, I I could not see the world the same way before and after.

我开始在群体动态中，在完全不受我控制的事件里，看到书中那些主题在现实中上演。

You know, I started to see just in group dynamics, in things happening totally outside of my control, the the the themes of the inserto at play.

那你能给我举个具体例子吗？比如生活中哪个方面让你对这些博弈论特别有共鸣？

So give me give me sort of an example of like, you know, an area of of your life where this like really resonated with you, these games.

啊，这个问题问得好。

Oh, that's a good question.

它如何影响我的个人生活呢？

How does it affect me in my personal life?

确切地说，它让你睁眼看清了随机性在宇宙中扮演的角色——也就是我们日常生活中无处不在的随机因素。

Rather, it is a it is opening up your eyes to the role that randomness plays sort of in the universe, which is just to say in your day to day life.

它揭示了随机性作为未知变量在你几乎所有行为中的普遍存在。

It is ment of how rampant randomness is as an unknown variable in almost everything that you do.

它改变了你看待成功者的方式。

And it is a it changes the way you look at winners.

它改变了你对幸存者偏差的认知，让你注意到幸存者偏差在各种行为中的普遍性。

It changes the way you think about survivorship bias, noticing how rampant survivorship bias is, and so many different things you do.

他有个绝妙的蒙眼过马路比喻——你可以蒙着眼睛过马路并安全抵达对面。

And he has this great blindfolded crossing the road metaphor, which is just to say, you know, you could cross the road blindfold and make it to the other side.

而与此同时，有人摘掉眼罩过马路，虽然躲避着车辆，却仍被撞倒无法到达对面。

And while in the meantime, someone else crosses the road, blindfold off, they're dodging the traffic, but they still get taken out, they don't make it to the other side.

那个蒙眼过马路的人只是运气好罢了。

The guy who crossed blindfolded, he just got lucky.

而那个摘掉眼罩并试图在人生中规避风险的人，这个比喻我想就是在说明这个道理。

Whereas the person who takes the blindfold off and at least tries to navigate the risk throughout their lives, that metaphor, I suppose, is some type of way of saying that.

这让我更加注意到并思考随机性在我生活中扮演的角色。

It's just it makes me notice and think about the role that randomness plays in my life a lot more.

我想对你来说更好的答案是，通过阅读纳西姆·塔勒布的作品，我对机缘巧合的认知完全被打开了。

And I guess actually a better answer for you would be the way that I think about serendipity has completely my eyes have been completely open to the way I think about serendipity because of reading Nisinterleb.

所谓机缘巧合，就是一次会面中随机发生的积极事件。

So serendipitous serendipity is just the random upside occurrence from a meeting.

举个例子，我们结束通话后你上了火车准备回家，碰巧坐在某人旁边开始交谈，结果发现对方是你一生的挚爱。

For example, you know, we get off the phone call, you get on the train, you're going home, and you happen to sit down next to somebody who you start talking to, and it turns out that's the love of your life.

你们从此共度余生。

You spend the rest of your lives together.

要知道，如果我们的通话再多持续30秒，你就不会有机会和那个人坐在一起了。

You know, had our phone call gone on for an extra thirty seconds, you would not have been in a situation where you would have sat with that person.

纯粹的机缘巧合。

Total serendipity.

关键在于，你可以通过向宇宙释放更多潜在节点来人为制造机缘。

And the thing is, is just you can sort of force serendipity by putting more potential nodes out into the universe.

比如我们正在进行的这次对话，对我来说就是机缘巧合的结果——因为我恰好制作了一期播客并发布到网上。

So for example, we're having this conversation, It's a serendipitous outcome for me because I happen to produce a podcast that went up on the internet.

当我做那件事时，我并不是因为预见到罗西·格雷最终会联系我，并可能在《旁观者》文章中引用我的话才去做的。

When I had done that, I was not doing it because Rosie Gray would eventually reach out to me and potentially quote me in a spectator piece.

这就是那种偶然的积极结果。

It's that is like the chance upside occurrence that comes from it.

所以我认为，如果不是因为尼西姆索布，我绝对不会以现在这种方式思考机缘巧合。

So I think thinking about serendipity is a 100% something that I would not think about the same way if it weren't for Nisimthoeb.

是什么启发你开始做旁路空间的？

What inspired you to start doing the bypass space?

就是那种解读他作品的工作。

Like, sort of interpreting his work.

是啊。

Yeah.

我不太确定。

I'm not sure exactly.

我在准备这次谈话时就在想这个问题。

I was thinking about that in preparation for this.

老实说，我也不知道。

And I honestly don't know.

可能只是某天我无所事事时突然迸发的创意。

It could have just been a sudden burst of creativity on a day where I wasn't doing much.

我想事实可能确实如此。

And I think that actually might just be what it was.

如果是这样的话，那其实挺有趣的，因为这本身就很有塔勒布风格——他整个闲逛者的理念就是拥有不按计划行事的时间。

And if it is, it's quite funny because that is very Talebian in itself because his whole, like, shtick about being a flannoir is that he has unscheduled time.

你知道，他会散步并某种程度上追随自己的直觉。

You know, he takes a walk and sort of feeds into his instincts.

如果他想工作，他就工作。

If he feels like working, he works.

如果不想工作，他就不工作。

If he doesn't feel like working, he doesn't.

如果播客真是这么开始的（而不仅仅是我记忆在欺骗我），那确实是个挺巧妙的小轶事。

And if that is actually the case of how the podcast started and I'm not just I'm not just, you know, my memory isn't just fooling me, that's quite a, you know, neat little little anecdote.

但说实话，这只是一个我阅读书籍的情况。

But honestly, it's just a case of I was reading the books.

我疯狂地听播客，在2018、2019年更是如此。

I listen crazily to podcasts even more so back in twenty eighteen, nineteen.

是啊。

And yeah.

你知道，后来我又创建了几个其他播客。

And as you know, I've since created a few other podcasts.

所以我本来就倾向于做播客，但具体创建Nassim Taleb这个播客时，我想那是在一次长途散步后，突然迸发创意和精力，我把所有内容整合在一起。

So I was already predisposed to do podcasts, but specifically to create the Nissin Taleb one, I think it was just after a long walk and a sudden burst of creativity and energy, I put it all together.

一旦整合完成，我是说，不妨编辑一下，不妨上传上去，然后掷骰子看看效果如何。

And once it was put together, I mean, you may as well edit it, you may as well put it up there and just, you know, roll the dice, see how it goes.

效果怎么样？

And how has it gone?

你吸引了什么样的观众？

What kind of audience have you been able to attract?

是啊。

Yeah.

我其实完全不和那里的听众互动。

I I don't engage with the audience there really at all.

可以告诉你这并没有转化为大量的Twitter粉丝。

I can tell you that it hasn't translated to a big Twitter following.

也没有带来任何经济上的收益。

It hasn't translated into any sort of monetary monetary upside.

我的播客没有任何赞助商。

I don't have any sponsors on the podcast.

不过下载量相当不错。

The downloads are quite good though.

你知道，现在累计下载量已超过15万次，而这只有大约30集。

You know, it's over a 150,000 down lifetime downloads now, and that's over only like 30 episodes.

所以对于一个从未做过任何推广的播客来说，表现已经很好了。

So for a podcast that has never had any promotion done to it, you know, it does well.

我认为这仅仅是因为当人们在播客算法中输入SimTeleb时，它排在自然搜索结果的第一位。

And I think that's just simply a case of it being the first organic search when someone puts in the SimTeleb into a a podcast algorithm.

但偶尔会有听众发邮件给我。

But the audience occasionally, I'll get an email.

偶尔我会收到来自法国或纽约等地的照片，发件人总是长得像胖托尼那种类型，这挺有趣的。

Occasionally, I'll get a photo from a guy in, you know, like France or New York, and he's always some sort of fat Tony look alike, which is quite funny.

所以从中也获得了一些不错的收获。

And so some nice upside has come from it.

有几位途经斯德哥尔摩的听众联系过我，最后我们一起喝啤酒聊天，成了朋友。

I've I've had a couple people who who roll through Stockholm reach out, and I end up getting some beers with them and talking, and they become friends.

去年因为这个播客，我还给斯德哥尔摩的一家咨询公司做了场演讲。

I got to do a presentation to a consultancy firm here in Stockholm last year because of it.

但除此之外，除了少数主动联系我的人，我和听众之间其实没有任何互动关系。

But beyond that, I don't have actually any relationship at all with the audience except for a couple of people that have reached out to me.

你会如何描述这种...比如，人才粉丝群体的特征呢？

How would you sort of, like, characterize the, like, talent fandom?

你知道，你描述过这类胖托尼类型的人。

You know, you described these kind of fat Tony types.

是啊。

Yeah.

比如，谁是...

Like, who's what do you

你认为，典型的那种...因为他确实有一群粉丝，基本上非常热衷他的作品。

think is, like, kind of the typical you know, because he does he does definitely have, like, fans, basically, that are really into what he does.

哦，百分之百。

Oh, a 100%.

比如，什么

Like, what's

你对典型用户画像的看法是？

your take on, like, the sort of typical profile?

是的。

Yeah.

这是个好问题。

That's a good question.

而且这完全是个我没资格回答的问题，因为我其实并不太了解塔勒布的公众形象。

And it's one that I'm completely unqualified to answer because I actually I don't I'm not really across Taleb's public image.

你知道，我确实在推特上关注了他，但我自己并不是推特的重度用户。

You know, I I follow him on Twitter, but I'm not a big Twitter user myself.

所以我其实看的不多，除了那些因为推特算法而浮出水面的戏剧性事件，所有的冲突、尖锐言论，你知道的，比如对加密货币社区的挑衅之类的事情。

So I don't really see much, except for obviously all the drama that rises to the top because of the Twitter algorithm, all the conflict, the abrasiveness, you know, like the the the trolling of the crypto community and so forth.

但真的很难说典型的塔勒布粉丝是什么样的人。

But it's really hard to say what the typical Taleb fan is.

我认为他在金融圈有点邪教般的追随者，因为写了《黑天鹅》这本书。

I think he's got a bit of a cult following in financial circles because of writing the Black Swan.

但最搞笑的是，他们几乎都曲解了《黑天鹅》，把它当成某种预测下一只黑天鹅的操作手册。

But the hilarious thing there is that they pretty much all misinterpret The Black Swan as some sort of playbook for how you can predict the next one.

他们完全错过了这本书的核心主题——黑天鹅本质上是不可预测的。

And they just miss the core theme of the book, which is that The Black Swan is inherently unpredictable.

对。

Right.

但是，呃，恐怕我无法提供什么有见地的看法，关于典型名人粉丝会是怎样的。

But, yeah, I I I I'm afraid I can't I can't offer anything that insightful there, what the typical celeb fan would be.

你对他那充满戏剧性的推特形象怎么看？就像你说的，确实有很多闹剧。

What do you think of his Twitter presence, which is very you know, as you said, there's lot of drama Yeah.

总的来说，他非常好斗。

In common, and he's very, like, pugnacious.

他经常与人发生争执。

He gets in fights with people a lot.

确实如此。

Definitely.

我认为这是两个因素共同作用的结果。

I think it's a combination of two things.

首先是推特算法本身的问题。

The first being that it's the Twitter algorithm itself.

对吧？

Right?

所以那些涉及冲突的内容、关于加密货币的内容，以及那些负面性质的内容，它们获得的互动量明显多于那些关于数学之类的书呆子帖子。

So the things that are that have conflict, the things that are about crypto, and the things that are sort of negative, they get significantly more engagement than does, you know, like nerdy posts about mathematics and stuff.

因此，如果你仅通过Twitter了解塔勒布，你绝对会陷入幸存者偏差。

And so you definitely get a survivorship bias from just ingesting Taleb via Twitter.

如果你接触塔勒布的唯一途径就是Twitter，那么你百分之百会留下这样的印象：他是个粗鲁无礼、令人讨厌的家伙。

If the only exposure you ever have to Taleb is via Twitter, then you're a 100% gonna be left with the opinion that he's this big, rude, obnoxious guy.

但我认为这是两个因素的共同作用。

So but I think that's a combination of two things.

一是Twitter算法本身。

It is the one, the Twitter algorithm that rewards engagement of conflict and abrasiveness and rudeness and crypto.

但另一方面，塔勒布本人确实是个性格直率的人，就像他在《黑天鹅》里描述的那种性格。

But the other side of it is as well is that Taleb is he is a character straight out of skin in the game, you know.

我认为他确实在刻意塑造自己——就像某种斯巴达式的老派人物，或者纽约黑帮那种有荣誉准则、真实可靠且言行一致的角色。

And I think he really, really models himself on the idea of a sort of old Spartan or, you know, an old, like, New York mafia guy who has a a code of honor and is authentic and you can rely on him and he's consistent.

我认为塔勒布确实将自己塑造成了这种形象。

I think Taleb, you know, really models himself in this type of persona.

这意味着当他受到攻击时，他未必是那种会默默忍让的人。

And which means that if he is attacked, he's not necessarily the type to just sort of, you know, turn the other cheek.

我确信他偶尔也会选择忍让。

I'm sure he'll occasionally turn the other cheek.

事实上，他确实偶尔会忍让。

In fact, certainly, he occasionally turns the other cheek.

但推特算法奖励冲突的机制，加上塔勒布这种'切身利益'的硬汉性格——宁愿战死沙场也不愿苟且偷生——导致他卷入了大量争吵。

But a combination of the Twitter algorithm, the rewarding all of the all of the all of the conflict, in addition Taleb being this character straight out of skin of the game, would rather die on his shield than return home with it, he he ends up getting into a bunch of spats.

而且要知道，加密货币社区在线上也非常怪异。

And, know, it's also like a the crypto community is also very weird online.

那里充斥着大量喷子和机器人。

It's full of mostly trolls, right, and shit loads of bots and stuff.

所以我认为我们最终看到的塔勒布推特形象，很大程度上是由这个可悲的算法造成的幸存者偏差形成的。

So I think what we actually end up seeing, Taleb's persona on Twitter is mostly formed by the survivorship bias of a of a pretty, you know, woeful algorithm at the end of the day.

我确实认为就是这么回事。

I really think that's what it is.

这就是推特上的塔勒布。

You're you're so that's Taleb on Twitter.

真实的塔勒布本人是什么形象？

Taleb as an actual person, what is his profile?

我从未有机会见过他。

I've never gotten the chance to meet him.

你知道吗，我觉得和他共进晚餐会非常棒，他绝对是个坐下来聊天会让人兴致盎然的人。

You know, I think he would be just a terrific person to share a meal with, You know, so he'd be a terribly interesting person to sit down with.

要知道，他什么话题都能聊。

You know, he can talk about everything.

实际上我遇到过几个和他有过私交或保持联系的人。

And I've actually met a couple of people who have either engaged with him personally or actually have a relationship with him.

他们众口一词地说，他就是个非常友善、温和、彬彬有礼的普通人。

And they all say the same thing, that he is just like a really nice, kind, respectful, normal guy.

因此我认为他在推特上完全投入这个人设，因为他是个聪明人。

And so that's why I think that he leans into his persona on Twitter 100%, because he isn't a smart guy.

他明白这对书籍销售等事情的作用。

He understands what it does for book sales and so forth.

但事实上我甚至不想用这点来批评他，因为即便是这点小瑕疵也无损他作为真实的人，我认为这归根结底才是最重要的。

But I wanna I in fact, I don't even wanna level that against him, because even that is like a small slight against being an authentic person, which I think at the end of the day is to sort of highest priority.

说到加密货币的话题，我记得通话开始时你提到最初了解Tel Av是通过观看Skye Naval和Ravi Khan在某个加密货币大会上的采访。

So on the topic of, crypto, I think you mentioned at the beginning of the call that when you first kind of heard of Tel Av, it was at was in the context of watching, the Skye Naval, Ravi Khan's interview at, like, a cryptocurrency conference.

那么你本身对加密货币感兴趣吗？

Like, were were you are you somebody who's interested in crypto?

我在想加密货币领域的人才流动是否改变了你对它的看法。

And I'm wondering whether, like, the talent trajectory on crypto has, like, altered what you think of it.

不。

No.

我看看。

I look.

我确实经历过加密货币的浪潮，但我对加密货币绝对不感兴趣。

I've ridden the the crypto waves, but I'm definitely not interested in crypto.

如果让我解释区块链，我只能给出最基础的回答。

I, you know, if you ask me to explain the blockchain, I'd give you the most basic answer.

我看那个采访是因为纳瓦尔·拉维坎特。

The reason I was watching that interview is because of Naval Ravikant.

所以我当时——现在也是——非常想听听纳瓦尔会说什么。

So I was deep I still am, but, you know, deeply interested to see what Naval would say.

你知道，我想这大概句是在他参加完知识工程和乔·罗根的节目之后，他有很多重要的事情要说。

You know, this was, I think, just after he was on the knowledge project and Joe Rogan, and he had a big interesting he had a lot of big interesting things to say.

而我观看那个采访的原因是因为塔勒布。

And so and the reason I was watching that interview was because of Taleb.

这与加密货币无关。

It had nothing to do with crypto.

但我只是好奇，你知道，因为我知道塔勒布因为改变立场在加密货币上受到了很多批评。

So I but I'm just curious, like, what do you think of you know, because I know that Taleb got a lot of flack for sort of, like, reversing course on crypto.

而且，你知道，我认为很多人会辩称他最终被证明是对的。

And, you know, I think a lot of people would argue that he turned out to be right in the end.

我是说，考虑到过去一年左右我们所看到的情况。

I mean, like, given what we see in over the past, like, year or so.

你对此有什么看法？

What's your take on that?

嗯，是的。

Well, yeah.

我是说，塔勒布认为比特币的真正价值为零。

I mean, Taleb thinks that the true value of Bitcoin is zero.

所以， 你知道， 他绝对知道如何传达一个简洁有力的信息， 这会激怒最多的人。

So, you know, he definitely knows how to, like, deliver a nice pithy message that's gonna annoy maximum people.

但是， 你知道， 我不知道该怎么想， 我不太参与社区活动。

But, you know, I don't know what to think about I'm I'm not that engaged with the community.

我认为塔勒布改变了他的观点， 你知道， 并不真正在乎这会在他的听众中引起很大的反弹或其他什么。

I think Taleb changed his opinion and, you know, didn't really care that it was gonna cause a big backlash in his audience or anything.

说实话，我觉得他很乐意把加密货币比特币极端分子从他的听众中剔除出去。

You know, I think he's happy to get rid of crypto Bitcoin maximalists from his from his audience, to be frank.

你明白我的意思吗？

You know what I mean?

是的。

Yeah.

嗯。

Yeah.

我明白。

I I do.

我懂你的意思。

I see what you mean.

我很好奇，他有没有什么立场是你非常不认同的？

I'm curious, like, are there positions that he's taken that you really disagree with?

问题是我其实并不太了解他总体上持有哪些立场。

The thing is is I don't actually really know broadly positions he's taken.

如果你列举一些，我看看能不能想起来。

If you throw some at me, I'll see if it rings a bell.

但其实，就像罗茜，这可能是我前几天想解释的。

But really, like, Rosie and this was what I was maybe trying to explain the other day.

我只是个认真读过他书的人。

Like, I'm just a guy who's really read his books.

我并没有过多关注他的公众形象。

I haven't engaged so much in his his his public image as much.

不过你可以说说他的立场，我看看自己有没有看法。

But give me some positions he's taken, and and I'll see if I have an opinion.

嗯，比如

Well, for

举个例子，我记得听过你一期节目，你似乎质疑过他关于疫情不是黑天鹅事件的观点。

example, like, didn't you I feel like I listened to an episode of yours where you were sort of questioning his assertion that the pandemic was not a black swan.

是的。

Yes.

我确实这么说过。

I definitely did.

但这更多不是我在质疑他，而是因为他公开表示疫情不是黑天鹅事件，并给出了X和Y理由。

But it was less of me, like, questioning him and me sort of just openly because he came out and said it wasn't a black swan for x and y reasons.

我当时就觉得，好吧，但根据他的定义，黑天鹅事件需要满足三个要素：必须产生极端影响。

And I sort of was like, okay, but by your definition, you know, a black swan has to meet three components, which is, you know, they have to have an extreme impact.

比如全球金融危机、拉丁美洲殖民化这类极端事件，9·11事件、2004年印尼海啸，而且这些事件只能在事后才能解释清楚。

They have to be, you know, for like the GFC, the colonization of Latin America, they have to be an extreme event, nine eleven, two thousand four Indonesian tsunami, and they are only explicable after the fact.

所以我认为黑天鹅事件的认定标准中，塔勒布认为疫情不符合第三条——只能在事后解释。

And so I think qualifications for a black swan, and I think Taleb was saying that it does not meet number three of only being explicable after the fact.

因此我的播客只是在探讨：疫情是否真的只能在事后解释？

And so my podcast was just sort of saying, is it was it actually only explicable after the fact or was it not?

你知道，这更像是个开放性问题。

You know, that that it was kind of like an open question.

我并不认为我一定是...

I I don't think I was necessarily

我很好奇，在你日常生活中，因为塔勒布作品的一个特点是它包含了很多宏观层面的理论思考和建议，关于系统应该如何运作，但同时也有很多关于人们具体应该吃什么、应该进行哪种运动的内容

I'm curious, like, in your sort of day to day life, you know, because one thing about Talb's work is that it, you know, has a lot of, like, kind of macro level theorizing intakes and and prescriptions for how systems should work, but it's also there's a lot of, like, stuff about literally, like, what people should eat, like, what kind of exercise people should

吃。

eat.

对。

Right.

对。

Right.

明白吗？

You know?

比如人们

Like, people

会考虑不吃那些一千年前连名称都没有的食物，就是这类理念。

think about not eating anything that, like, there wasn't a word for a thousand years ago, like, or, you know, that kind of thing.

是的。

Yeah.

你大概采纳了多少这方面的建议？

How much of that have you kind of taken on board?

是啊。

Yeah.

我是说，一点都没有。

I mean, none of it.

我完全不认同那套理论。

I don't I don't I don't ascribe to that at all.

我是说，而且网上任何关于营养和体重的话题都像一场该死的篝火。

I mean, but also anything nutrition and sort of weight related on on on the Internet is just like a fucking bonfire.

根本不值得参与讨论，你懂的。

It's totally not worth engaging in, you know.

我是说，塔勒布就像，你知道的，他是个硬拉极端主义者。

I mean, Taleb's like, you know, he's a he's a dead lift maximal maximalist.

对吧？

Right?

这绝对是你所能做的最佳锻炼。

It's the best bloody exercise you could possibly do.

然后你翻到另一页又发现，哦，硬拉可能对脊椎不好，是个不自然的动作之类的。

And then you go on another page and you realize, oh, maybe the dead lift is bad for your spine in an unnatural move or whatever.

是啊。

And yeah.

对。

Yeah.

也许只吃一千年前就存在名称的食物是有道理的。

Maybe it makes sense that we only eat things that had a name a thousand years ago.

确实。

Sure.

但就像，我偶尔也喜欢吃点垃圾食品。

But like, I quite enjoy eating shit food occasionally.

所以我认为那些形成人格特质的小乐趣其实无关紧要。

So I don't I don't I think that those fun little, like, side bits that that form the personality that is in a simp lib, I I think they're kind of inconsequential.

你知道，他就是那个inserto。

You know, who he is is the inserto.

就是那五本书。

It's those five books.

那是他对文化的贡献。

That's his contribution to culture.

那就是他会被后人记住的原因。

That's that's what he's gonna be remembered for.

而且，你知道，我其实不太关注其他那些东西。

And, you know, I I just don't pay much attention to the other stuff.

inserto中你最喜欢哪一部？

Which is your favorite of the inserto?

这个问题问得好。

That's a nice question.

很难说。

It's hard to say.

我想如果一年前你问我这个问题，我可能会说是《反脆弱》。

I think if you'd asked me a year ago, it would have been anti fragile.

但越是深入思考，我越觉得应该是《随机致富的傻瓜》，因为这本书就像是他的入门作。

But the longer I sit with it, I I think it's fooled by randomness, because that's the sort of like, that's his introduction.

这是他向世界发出的伟大宣言。

That's his great introduction to the world.

这个伟大的理念。

The great idea.

比如：随机性在你生活中扮演的角色有多普遍？

Like, how pervasive is the role of randomness on your life?

而你对这种角色又有多无知？

And how ignorant are you to its role?

这里用几百页的篇幅试图向你解释这个问题。

Here is a couple of 100 pages to try and explain that to you.

所以我觉得，如果你在我临终前问这个问题，答案几乎肯定会是《随机致富的傻瓜》。

So I think the one that, you know, if you ask him in my deathbed, it's it's probably almost certainly gonna be fooled by randomness.

嗯

Mhmm.

我很好奇，在他的作品中，他确实引用了大量内容——我是说，包罗万象，但特别是古典作家，比如斯多葛学派和各种哲学家。

I'm curious, you know, in his work, he he definitely, like, makes a lot of references to well, I mean, tons of stuff, but, like, you know, classical authors, like the stoics, various philosophers.

我在想，他的作品是否对你起到了某种引导作用，让你了解到其他作品？

I'm I'm wondering, like, what did, like did his work function at all for you as, like, a way to learn about, you know, other works?

它是否向你介绍了一些你之前可能未曾涉猎的内容？

Like, did it sort of, like, introduce you to things that you might not have gotten into before?

我不...我想不起来...我觉得没有。

I don't I can't think I I don't think so.

你知道，我也对斯多葛学派产生了兴趣，但我不认为这是受塔勒布的影响。

You know, I have also taken an interest in the Stoics, but I don't think that that came from Taleb.

但我认为他作品如此受欢迎的一个重要原因，正是因为他大量引用了古代经典。

But I I think the great one of the great reasons for the insert of being so popular is actually because he makes so much reference to the ancients and to the classics.

所有观点都通过某种近乎公元前时代的轶事隐喻来阐述，这正契合了他关于林迪效应的核心理念。

Everything is explained through some sort of anecdotal metaphor that was almost BC, and that feeds into his whole idea of the Linde effect.

但我想我实在想不出一个具体的例子，能说明我因为塔勒布顺带提及就对某部古典作品产生了兴趣。

But I think I I can't think of of a specific example where I, you know, of took up an interest in some classical text because Taleb mentioned it in passing.

如果要考我对古人的了解，老实说可能全都来自那些插入内容。

If you were to quiz me on things I know about the ancients, it probably all comes from the inserto, to be honest.

所以很大程度上这是非常浅薄的认知。

So it's very uninformed largely.

你的媒体消费习惯是怎样的？

What's your media diet like?

比如你提到过乔·罗根。

Like, you mentioned Joe Rogan.

就是那些... 对。

What are sort of Yeah.

你常听的播客之类有哪些？

Podcast and stuff that you're into?

是的。

Yeah.

我最喜欢的播客是《Hello Sport》，由悉尼的几个家伙制作，和我挺像的。

My favorite podcast is one called Hello Sport, which is a Sydney based guys, quite similar to me.

但这与纳西姆·塔勒布完全无关。

But that's got absolutely nothing to do with Nasim Taleb.

你知道，我主要听的播客是《This Curious Worldview》，里面有优秀的记者、作家和商业人士。

I you know, my main sort of podcast is this curious worldview, which is which is good journalists, good authors, good business.

所以我的媒体消费主要是帕特里克·奥肖内西、乔丹·哈宾格这类人。

So my media diet is people like Patrick O'Shaughnessy, people like Jordan Harbinger.

我认为莱克斯·弗里德曼做得非常出色。

I think Lex Friedman can do a really good job.

我至少会听《经济学人》的所有内容。

I I listen to at least I like all the Economist stuff.

我超爱《Project Brazen》。

I love Project Brazen.

如果你知道《Project Brazen》，那是布拉德利·霍普和汤姆·赖特的作品。

If you know what Project Brazen is, that's Bradley Hope and Tom Wright.

这是一些调查性新闻报道的内容。

It's a bunch of investigative journalism stuff.

我正在浏览我的...我想

I'm just looking through my think I

应该去听听看。

should give that a listen.

是啊。

Yeah.

简直难以置信，真的。

It's unbelievable, truly.

Econ Talk的Russ Roberts，他是Taleb的朋友。

Econ Talk, Russ Roberts, that's a friend of Taleb's.

我是这个节目的忠实粉丝。

I'm a big fan of that.

澳大利亚的Equity Mates和Macro Voices，Eric Townsend，我觉得他非常棒。

Equity Mates in Australian Macro Voices, Eric Townsend, I think he's very good.

与泰勒的对话，泰勒·科恩，我觉得他真的很棒。

Conversations with Tyler, Tyler Cohen, I think he's really good.

蒂姆·费里斯，你知道的，他大概是我接触播客的引路人。

Tim Ferriss, you know, he's probably my introduction to podcasting.

我其实非常喜欢他。

I actually love him.

有个叫...对。

There's a yeah.

有个叫乔·沃克的家伙，他主持《快乐流浪汉》播客，我将其视为我的北极星。

There's a fellow called called Joe Walker, who runs the Jolly Swagman podcast, which I I hold as like my North Star.

就是那个我经常拿来与自己比较的播客，我总觉得自己望尘莫及，但希望有天能与之比肩。

Like, that's the podcast that I sort of compare myself the most with, which I want to I can't I'm constantly inferior of, but want to one day meet it.

我觉得这个评价还算中肯。

I think that's a that's a pretty decent look at it.

我会看瑞典新闻，读《经济学人》，偶尔会点进王室八卦的标题党——但基本就这些了。

I I list I watch Swedish news, and I read The Economist, and I suffer clickbait for the royals, but that's pretty much it.

确实，过去几年有很多关于王室的消息

There's been well, there's been a lot of royal you have to I mean, has been a lot of royal news over

是的

the past Yeah.

几年

Couple years.

对

Yeah.

完全同意

Absolutely.

你打算怎么办？

What are you gonna do?

嗯

Yeah.

对了，你的瑞典语怎么样？

How's your Swedish, by the way?

哦，正在慢慢进步中。

Oh, it's getting there.

是啊。

Yeah.

难吗？

Is it hard?

嗯，是的，学习任何语言都很难，但它绝对比西班牙语、德语、法语之类的要简单些。

Well, yeah, any other learning any other language is hard, but it's definitely easier than Spanish or German or French or something like that.

这倒挺有意思的。

That's interesting.

是因为语法结构的原因，还是因为发音之类的？

Is it is that due to the structure, or is it due to, like, the sounds?

是语法结构。

The structure.

酷。

Cool.

那么，接下来有什么计划？

Well, so what's next?

具体来说，你接下来会继续偶尔做与电视相关的播客吗？

Like, what's next for you in terms of are you gonna continue to occasionally do, like, telev related podcasts?

你会更专注于其他项目吗？

Are you focusing more on your other ones?

是的。

Yeah.

不会。

No.

我百分之百会继续做。

I 100% will.

我唯一没持续更新那个项目的原因就是，你知道的，我也得谋生。

I I the only reason I haven't kept up to date with that one is just because, you know, I I I I must also make a living.

所以我现在全职工作，同时还有其他副业项目要处理，就像我们前几天聊到的那样。

So, you know, I'm I'm working full time and and I've got all these other side projects that I work on, you know, like we spoke about the other day.

我绝对是一名有抱负的记者。

I'm definitely an an aspiring journalist.

所以你看，我也在尝试推销故事、撰写故事。

So, you know, I'm trying to also pitch stories, write stories.

就是有太多事情在发生，而且塔勒布，你知道，他曾经是我多年来的头号思想启蒙者，但我想我某种程度上已经转向了。

So just so much happening, and and Taleb, you know, he he was he was my my number one intellectual influence for several years, and I guess I sort of just moved on.

所以现在关注的是其他事情了。

And so now it's it's other stuff.

不过和你交谈，回顾我写过的关于他的内容，确实让我重新获得了一些灵感。

But, you know, speaking with you and and going over what I've written about him, it's definitely sort of reinspired me a bit.

在这篇文章发布前后，我一定会制作一期播客节目。

And around the launch of this article, I'll definitely produce a podcast.

我还存着一篇草稿很久了，标题就叫《我从纳西姆·塔勒布身上学到了什么》，主要是想系统梳理他那些对我产生深刻影响的重要思想。

I've also had a draft for quite a while, which is just titled, you know, what I learned from Nassim to Leb, which is me trying to really break down what are the what are the what are the big ideas that he that he, you know, that he wrote down, left which an impression on me.

很棒。

Cool.