本集简介
双语字幕
仅展示文本字幕，不包含中文音频；想边听边看，请使用 Bayt 播客 App。
如果你每次拿起手机开始刷屏时都会生气，那不只是你一个人这样。
If you get mad every time you pick up your phone and start scrolling, it's not just you.
愤怒诱导内容是我们在网上看到的许多内容背后的‘货币’或驱动力。
Rage bait is kind of the currency or the power that's behind a lot of the content we might see.
本周在Vox的《给我解释一下》节目中，我们来探讨互联网为何故意惹你生气。
This week on Explain It To Me from Vox, why the Internet is pissing you off on purpose.
新节目每周日上线，你可以在任何收听播客的平台找到。
New episodes at Sundays wherever you get your podcasts.
大家好。
Hey, everybody.
我是埃利。
It's Eli.
《解码者》现在进入假期休息。
Decoder is on holiday break.
不过新年我们有很多精彩内容即将推出，包括在CES举办的特别直播《解码者》。
We've got a lot of fun stuff coming up in the New Year though, including a special Decoder Live at CES.
我们将在1月7日星期三下午12:30在拉斯维加斯的布鲁克林碗现场录制。
We'll be recording on Wednesday, January 7 at 12:30PM at Brooklyn Bowl in Las Vegas.
请持续关注更多详情，包括如何免费报名参加本次活动的门票。
Stay tuned for more details, including how to RSVP for free tickets to the event.
与此同时，我想分享一期由播客频道出品的精彩节目，嘉宾是两位顶尖的媒体记者。
In the meantime, I wanted to share this great episode of the podcast channels featuring two of the best media reporters in the business.
主持人彼得·卡夫卡与彭博社的卢卡斯·肖对话，讨论派拉蒙、天空之舞与奈飞之间对华纳兄弟探索公司的竞购战。
Host Peter Kafka sat down with Bloomberg's Lucas Shaw to talk about the bidding war between Paramount Skydance and Netflix over Warner Brothers discovery.
谁能收购华纳兄弟是当今娱乐行业最重要的新闻之一，而且短期内看不到任何解决的迹象。
Who gets to buy Warner is one of the biggest stories in the entertainment industry today and it shows no signs of resolving anytime soon.
这期节目涉及大量复杂的问题。
There's a whole lot of complex issues in this one.
特朗普政府如何利用监管权力、埃里森家族试图通过金钱和影响力控制媒体行业，以及无论最终哪家公司胜出，这场收购对好莱坞可能产生的影响。
The Trump administration and its weaponization of regulatory oversight, the Ellison family and their push to exert money and influence over the media business, and then of course, what it feel like this might do to Hollywood regardless of which company wins in the end.
谈论这个话题，几乎没有人比彼得和卢卡斯更合适了。
There's almost no one better to talk about this than Peter and Lucas.
我想你一定会喜欢这期节目。
I think you're really gonna like this episode.
好的。
Okay.
这里是Channels频道，关于华纳兄弟探索频道的命运。
Here's channels on the fate of Warner Brothers discovery.
Enjoy。
Enjoy.
来自Vox Media播客网络，这是Channels。
From the Vox Media Podcast Network, this is channel.
所以，Peter Kafka，就是我。
So Peter Kafka, that's me.
我同时也是《商业内幕》的首席记者。
I'm also chief correspondent at Business Insider.
今天，如约而至，我们将深入探讨华纳兄弟探索、Netflix和Paramount之间的博弈。
And today, as promised, we are going deep on Warner Brothers Discovery slash Netflix slash Paramount.
正如承诺的那样，今天我们邀请到了彭博社的卢卡斯·肖，他是这一报道的主导记者。
And as promised, we are doing it with Bloomberg's Lucas Shaw, who has been the dominant reporter on the story.
这听起来像是 déjà vu。
This sounds like deja vu.
这背后是有原因的。
There is a reason for that.
不到两周前，当奈飞突然宣布达成华纳兄弟交易——至少是暂时达成时，我曾请卢卡斯做了一期紧急访谈。
Less than two weeks ago, when Netflix shocked us by landing the Warner Brothers deal, at least landing it temporarily, I had Lucas on for a quick emergency pod.
正如你所知，这个故事远未结束。
As you know, the story is far from finished.
派拉蒙和埃里森家族仍在试图收购华纳兄弟探索公司，因此这一事件可能还会持续数周甚至数月。
Paramount and the Ellison family are still trying to buy Warner Brothers Discovery, so this one could go on for weeks or months.
有鉴于此，我向卢卡斯提了一些实际的问题。
With that in mind, I had some practical questions for Lucas.
比如，如果华纳兄弟探索公司再次正式拒绝派拉蒙，会发生什么？
Like, what happens if Warner Brothers Discovery formally turns down Paramount again?
但还有一些宏观层面的问题。
But also some big picture ones.
比如，为什么派拉蒙和奈飞愿意为本质上是HBO以及一个电影/电视工作室支付如此多的钱？
Like, why exactly do Paramount and Netflix wanna spend so much for essentially HBO and a movie slash TV studio?
这笔交易或潜在交易向我们揭示了2025年及以后媒体行业的现状如何？
And what does this deal or potential deal tell us about the state of media in 2025 and beyond?
这些内容很棒。
It's good stuff.
对吧？
Right?
这期还是年终特辑，所以我跟卢卡斯聊了点人工智能，因为我们法律上被要求必须谈论人工智能。
This is also a year end pod, so I talked to Lucas a bit about AI because we're legally required to talk about AI.
我们还为你推荐了一些值得收听和观看的内容。
And we got some recommendations for your listening and viewing pleasure.
这期真的很不错。
This is a good one.
好的。
Okay.
这是我采访卢卡斯·肖。
Here's me talking to Lucas Shaw.
卢卡斯·肖，来自彭博社。
Lucas Shaw from Bloomberg.
你在笑，因为我播客做得不好，但我很高兴你再次回到节目中。
You're laughing because I'm bad at podcasting, but I'm glad to have you back on the show.
当奈飞获胜时，我们做了一期紧急播客。
We did an emergency pod when Netflix won.
我给华纳兄弟这笔交易加了引号。
I'm putting scare quotes around the the Warner Brothers deal.
是的。
Yeah.
那是两周前的事吗？
That was that was two weeks ago?
两周前。
Two weeks ago.
也许是吧。
Maybe that.
我们就说是两周前吧。
Let's call it two weeks ago.
原本计划这次预先安排的对话是回顾2025年并展望2026年。
The intent was for this previously scheduled conversation to be a look back at 2025 and a look ahead at 2026.
我们可以做一些相关内容，但老实说，整个事情都围绕华纳兄弟、派拉蒙和奈飞。
We can do some of that, but honestly, the whole thing is Warner Brothers, Paramount, Netflix.
这是今年的大事。
It's the story of the year.
我认为这是我们职业生涯中的大事。
I think it's the story of our careers.
真的吗？
Really?
这是流媒体的崛起。
It's the rise of streaming.
对吧？
Right?
已经显现出来了，而且得到了证实。
Manifested, and it Got it.
这是一大步倒退。
It's taking a huge step back.
是的。
Yeah.
是的。
Yeah.
是的。
Yeah.
正在取代你知道的，可能，不管怎样。
Displacing you know, could potentially well, whatever.
我们总是过度炒作这些故事。
It's it's it's we oversell these stories all the time.
人们试图告诉你这件事为何意义重大，但我觉得它确实非同寻常，尤其是如果奈飞最终收购了华纳兄弟的话。
People try to tell you why this thing is momentous, but I it really is momentous, especially I think if Netflix does end up buying Warner Brothers.
我们今天是周一录制的。
We are recording this on Monday.
你们将在周三听到这段内容。
You guys will hear this on Wednesday.
从现在到那时，情况可能会发生变化，但让我们先从当前的状况说起。
Things can change between now and then, but let's just start where the state of play is.
技术上讲，对吧，派拉蒙刚刚表示，嘿。
Technically, right, Paramount had just said, hey.
我们想收购华纳兄弟探索公司。
We would like to buy Warner Brothers Discovery.
我们正式出价了，华纳兄弟探索公司，但他们尚未回应。
Consider our bid Warner Brothers Discovery, and they have not yet responded.
我们预计他们随时都会回应。
We expect them to respond any day now.
对。
Right.
你认为会发生什么？
What do you think will happen?
华纳兄弟探索公司将说：感谢您如此慷慨的报价。
Warner Brothers Discovery will say, thank you for this generous offer.
我们拒绝。
We decline.
我们已经拒绝了这个报价。
We already declined this offer.
关键问题是，他们会说：我们不想要这个报价，请别再尝试了。
The big question is whether they will say, we don't want this offer, and please stop trying.
走开。
Go away.
我们对与Netflix的交易感到满意。
We are happy with our deal with Netflix.
或者我们拒绝。
Or we decline.
但如果你愿意提供更多的资金，我们愿意进行对话。
But if you want to offer us even more money, we're open to having a conversation.
因为目前，他们本不应该与其他方进行交谈。
Because at the moment, they're not really supposed to be talking to other parties.
他们与Netflix的协议中有一些非竞业条款，但他们仍保留重新开启谈判的可能性——在华纳兄弟股东批准任何交易之前，其他人仍可以前来争取他们。
There's kind of no shop provisions in their deals with Netflix, but they have the ability to open things back up where they can, you know basically, until the shareholders of of Warner Brothers bless a deal, someone else can can come around and try to wow them.
我认为，如果他们说‘走开’，那会非常奇怪。
And I I I think it'd be pretty strange if they said go away.
我认为，他们非常乐意利用派拉蒙和Netflix来为股东争取每股再增加3到5美元的报价。
I think they'd be more than happy to use Paramount and Netflix to try to get another 3 to $5 a share for their shareholders.
所以，基本上，我们之前几周讨论时，更倾向于认为这已经是一个定局，即华纳兄弟已经选择了Netflix作为买家。
So basically, what we were describing more we were describing as a done deal when we talked a couple weeks ago, but saying, you know, Warner Brothers has picked Netflix as their buyer.
你是在暗示他们还没有最终选定Netflix。
You're suggesting that they haven't fully picked them yet.
比如，仍然可能有其他竞争者出现，比如派拉蒙。
Like, someone could still come in would be Paramount.
我认为他们已经选中了Netflix，但董事会永远不会拒绝一个更好的报价。
I think they picked them, but they are never the board is never going to turn away an even better offer.
如果派拉蒙——目前已经向华纳兄弟探索公司提出了六次收购要约，全部被拒绝——如果他们提出第七次、更高的报价，董事会就有受托责任去与之洽谈。
And if Paramount has which has now made six offers to buy Warner Brothers Discovery, every single one of them rejected, if they make a seventh that is even higher, the board would have a fiduciary responsibility to engage with it.
我会请你做一些预测，即使你猜错了我也不会怪你，因为世界本来就是这样。
And I'm gonna ask you to just do some prognostication and won't hold you responsible if you're wrong because that's how the world works.
我们是否预期派拉蒙和Netflix会陷入一场持续的竞价战，轮流回到华纳兄弟，说‘我们再加一美元一股’？
Do we expect Paramount and then Netflix to then get in a ongoing bidding war where each goes back to Warner Brothers says, here's another dollar a share?
我认为派拉蒙已经表示，这并不是最后的、最终的报价，这意味着他们明确表示还可以加价。
I think they both Paramount has said that that this isn't the last and final, which implies that or outright just says, like, we can we can go higher.
据我了解，Netflix在研究这笔交易并进行模型测算时，也预留了提高报价的空间。
My understanding is that Netflix in studying the deal and doing its models has also created room to go higher.
他们是否会这样做就更难预测了。
Whether they will is harder to guess.
我认为他们会，因为他们似乎对这笔交易非常坚定。
I would I think they would because they seem very committed to this.
这种动态中有趣的一点是，你面对的是两家不习惯失败的公司。
And what one of the things that's interesting about this dynamic is you have two companies that are not or two entities that are not used to losing.
对吧？
Right?
埃里森家族习惯于如愿以偿。
The Ellisons are used to getting their way.
奈飞也习惯于如愿以偿，而这里总有一方必须失败。
Netflix is used to getting their way, and one of the one of them has to lose here.
对奈飞来说，棘手的是，与完全控股的派拉蒙或天空之舞不同，奈飞并非如此，它是一家真正的上市公司，因此如果股东真的不喜欢这笔交易——看起来有些股东对此态度冷淡——奈飞的股价一直在缓慢下跌，如果奈飞将其出价再提高3美元或5美元，你可能会认为股东会更加不满。
The wrinkle for Netflix is that unlike the unlike Paramount Skydance, which is a fully controlled company, Netflix isn't, it's a proper public company, and so if shareholders really don't like this deal, which it seems like some of them are lukewarm on it, the share price of Netflix has been inching down, if Netflix adds $3, $5 to its bid, you'd imagine shareholders would be even less satisfied with it.
这是我听到的讯息，我猜你也从派拉蒙方面的人那里听到过：看看自去年秋天以来奈飞股价下跌了多少。
This is messaging that I hear, I assume you hear from people particularly in the Paramount sphere saying, look how much Netflix shares have gone down since last fall.
Netflix的股东真的不希望这笔交易达成。
Netflix really doesn't Netflix shareholders really don't want this deal.
他们的市值已经蒸发了10万亿美元。
They've lost a $100,140,000,000,000 dollars in value.
并非所有这些都正确。
Not all not all of which is Correct.
与这笔交易无关。
Related to this.
让我们来推演一下这种情况。
So let's let's play this out.
所以，如果出于某种原因，华纳兄弟说：‘你知道吗？’
So if for whatever reason, if Warner Brothers says, you know what?
在其他条件相同的情况下，我们想继续与Netflix合作。
All all things being equal, we we wanna stick with Netflix.
对不起，派拉蒙。
Sorry, Paramount.
是的。
Yep.
我们是否要讨论派拉蒙是否会起诉？
Do we what Paramount could sue?
他们可以直接向股东提起诉讼吗？
They could could go again directly to shareholders?
他们可以起诉，称这个过程是不公平的。
They could sue and say that this was an unfair process.
这听起来像是一个高风险的举动。
That feels like a risky a endeavor.
在并购领域，你很少看到这样的情况。
You don't see a lot of those in in M and A land.
他们可以继续以当前每股30美元的报价直接向股东提出要约。
They could continue with going direct shareholders at their current offer, $30 a share.
他们一直坚称这个报价优于Netflix的报价，并且已经进行了足够的对话。
They have been adamant that it is superior to the Netflix offer, and they have had enough dialogue.
他们正在与大量股东会面并沟通，以了解股东们的支持程度。
They're they're meeting with and talking to a lot of shareholders to try to get a sense for how supportive they are.
根据我和我在彭博社的团队与股东们的交谈，感觉大家显然都希望价格能再提高一些。
From the conversations that that, people on my team at at Bloomberg have had with shareholders, it feels like, you know, they'd all obviously like to see the number go up.
我不知道他们对其中一方是否有明确的偏好。
I don't know that there's a clear preference for one versus the other.
所以这也存在风险。
So that is also risky.
如果埃里森家族真的想要华纳兄弟，最稳妥的做法就是提出更高的报价。
The the safest move for for the Ellisons, if they really want Warner Brothers, would be to come back with more money.
然后我们还有特朗普这个变数。
And then we have the the Trump wildcard.
对吧？
Right?
我们几个月来一直在反复讨论，最近几天更是激烈地探讨唐纳德·特朗普在这其中会扮演什么角色。
And we've gone back and forth for months and and recently, last few days intensely about what role will Donald Trump have in this.
对吧？
Right?
他不能强迫任何人收购华纳兄弟探索公司。
He can't compel someone to buy Warner Brothers Discovery.
理论上，他根本不应该对此事有任何主动参与。
He's, in theory, not supposed to have an active role in this at all.
他说，我会积极参与。
He said, I'm gonna have an active role.
我们许多人原本认为派拉蒙最终会赢得这笔交易，因为埃里森家族与唐纳德·特朗普有着深厚的联系。
Many of us assumed ultimately that Paramount would win the deal because the Ellisons Larry Ellison has a deep connection with Donald Trump.
Semaphore 曾有一篇报道，引用了一位未具名的财政部官员的话说：‘我们对这个想法感到反感，这适得其反。’
I Semaphore had a story where they were quoting an unnamed treasury executive saying we're offended by this idea, and this has backfired.
你认为唐纳德·特朗普在这个过程中会有多大的参与度？这个过程理论上可能持续数月之久。
How active do you think Donald Trump will be in this process, which could go on in theory, for for many months?
对吧？
Right?
他可以下令进行审查。
He can order a review.
无论如何，很可能通过反垄断程序会进行一次审查。
There there will be a review most likely anyway through antitrust.
那么，你认为唐纳德·特朗普会参与多少呢？
So how how how much do you think Donald Trump is going to play?
你认为他会发挥多大的作用？
How how big a role do think he will play?
在当前竞标战中，无论谁胜出，我认为他的参与几乎为零。
In the negotiations over who wins the current auction bidding war, whatever, almost none, I think.
嗯。
Mhmm.
我的意思是，我认为他的名字会被频繁提及。
I mean, I think his name will be invoked a lot.
嗯。
Mhmm.
而且他会一直被问到这件事，这意味着他会对各种事情发表评论，人们也会试图
And he will get asked about it all the time, which means that he will comment on various things, and people will try
他喜欢这样。
to Which he loves.
他喜欢这样。
Which he loves.
人们会试图揣测他的评论。
And people will try to read into his comments.
他喜欢成为关注的中心。
And he likes being at the center of attention.
我的意思是，他刚把罗布·莱纳的去世扯到了自己身上。
I mean, he just made the the death of Rob Reiner about himself.
他还喜欢让人觉得，是他决定了各种事情。
And he likes making it appear as though he is the person who, you know, decides things.
但我认为，在人选确定之前，他并没有任何真正的影响力。
But I don't think that he exerts any real influence until someone has been selected.
我认为，赢家可能会将监管批准的可能性纳入你选择哪一方的考量中，但没错。
I think that the winner of this you may you may factor odds of regulatory approval into who you who the side that you pick, But Right.
赢得华纳兄弟的公司将是最能提供最佳交易的公司。
The company that wins Warner Brothers is gonna be the company that offers the best deal.
嗯。
Mhmm.
然后然后然后
And then And then then
唐纳德·特朗普现在正乐此不疲地制造一种假象，好像双方都欠他点什么。
Donald Trump will he's currently having fun sort of making it seem like both sides are gonna owe him something.
对吧？
Right?
他大力赞扬了奈飞的联合首席执行官特德·萨兰多斯。
He he was very he was he he he lauded Ted Sarandos, co CEO of Netflix.
他谈到了奈飞是一家伟大的公司，然后又说，但这需要进行审查。
He talked about how Netflix was a great company, and then said, but this will need to be reviewed.
他对埃利森家族大加赞扬，同时也表示我们必须关注市场份额。
And he's been very effusive in his praise for the Ellisons while also saying, but we have to look at market share.
因此，无论结果如何，他都在为自己争取赢家的某种回报。
So he's setting himself up to either way, demanding something of the winner.
他抛出一个观点，认为无论这笔交易如何发展，CNN都必须更换所有者。
He's throwing out this idea that that CNN has to have new owners no matter how this deal goes down.
如果你
If you
如果从字面意思理解，这意味着只有派拉蒙的交易才可行，因为只有他们愿意在唐纳德·特朗普的反对下收购华纳兄弟。
took that at literal face value, it means that only the Paramount deal works because they're the ones who want to buy Warner Brothers against Donald Trump.
谁知道他明天会说什么呢？
Who knows what he will say tomorrow?
但我们都会提到时代华纳与AT&T的交易，当时特朗普政府曾以常规的反垄断理由试图阻止这笔交易。
But we all reference the Time Warner AT and T deal, which the first Trump administration tried to stop with a pretty conventional antitrust challenge.
当时有很多猜测认为，这一举动是出于唐纳德·特朗普的授意。
There was a lot of speculation that this was done at Donald Trump's behest.
司法部的许多人表示，我们讨论这件事是完全正当的。
Lots of folks in the DOJ say it was a legitimate thing for us to talk about.
我们现在处于一个特朗普式愚蠢的新时代，他直接对帕姆·邦迪说：去推进这件事吧。
We're in a different era of Trump dumb where he just literally says to Pam Bondi, go ahead and pursue this.
如果她真的发起了一项反垄断调查，她是否有充分的理由这么做？
If she then did pursue a real antitrust challenge, does she have grounds to take one up?
相对于AT&T收购时代华纳的交易，这两项交易在某种程度上更属于传统的并购案，因为涉及的是竞争对手之间的合并，
Both of these deals relative to the AT and T Time Warner would be kinda almost more traditional deals to have reviewed because you have competitors merging,
从而导致行业内整合加剧、权力更加集中。
creating greater consolidation and greater concentration of power within an industry.
所以我认为，你说得对，几乎不可能预测本届政府会怎么做，他们似乎完全不遵循以往审查、不审查或关注哪些事项的传统规范。
So I think while the you're right that it's almost impossible to predict what the administration will do and they don't seem to follow any of the traditional norms or rules for what they they review, what they don't, what they care about.
我认为在一个传统政府下，这两项交易都会接受审查。
I think in a traditional administration, either deal would get reviewed.
而接受审查就是
And getting reviewed is
与阻止并购的诉讼不同——这正是AT&T与时代华纳合并时发生的情况。
different than- Suits to block, which is what happened with AT and T and Time Warner.
我认为无论哪笔交易都会受到严格审查。
I think there will be close scrutiny of either deal.
你已经看到两党政治家至少在奈飞交易案中表示，我们希望对其进行审查。
You already have politicians on both sides of the aisle, at least in in the case of the Netflix deal saying that we'd want to scrutinize it.
你还有知名行业组织，比如工会和电影制作人发声，表示他们对此感到担忧。
You have prominent industry organizations, you know, unions and filmmakers speaking out and saying we're worried about it.
因此，某种程度的审查是不可避免的。
And so it's inevitable that there would be some examination.
至于是否会提起诉讼阻止交易，则更难预测，而且针对每笔交易的案件情况也略有不同。奈飞案的指控是，他们已经是流媒体领域的头号玩家。
Whether they would sue to block it is is much harder to predict and the the cases against each deal are a little bit different, right, that the Netflix, the case against Netflix is they're already the number one player in streaming.
如果他们收购华纳兄弟探索，就会变得不可战胜，同时还存在一些关于电影院业务的模糊担忧，但我认为这些在反垄断方面通常并不重要。
If they add Warner Brothers Discovery, they become unbeatable, as well as sort of these ambiguous concerns about the movie theater business, which I don't think would generally matter in terms of antitrust.
对于派拉蒙，人们则有点疑惑资金来源在哪里。
With Paramount, there is like a little bit of where's the money coming from.
CFIUS需要审查吗？他们说不需要，因为涉及中东资金。
Does CFIUS need to review it, which they say it doesn't because there's Middle Eastern money in there's Middle Eastern money involved
数十亿美元。
billion dollars.
资金来自三个不同国家的三个主权财富基金：沙特、卡塔尔和阿联酋，以及一个名为CFIUS的机构，该机构通常审查外国对美国企业的所有权。
Comes from three different sovereign wealth funds in three different countries, Saudis, Qataris, Emiratis, and an organization called CFIUS tends to review kind of foreign ownership of US businesses.
埃里森家族试图以一种他们声称无需CFIUS审查的方式结构这笔交易，因为这些实体不会拥有任何治理权。
The Ellisons have tried to structure this deal in a way they say will not require CFIUS review because none of those entities will have any governance rights.
这是否属实，我们拭目以待。
Whether that's actually true, we'll see.
此外，如果将派拉蒙和华纳兄弟探索的电视网络资产合并，它们将控制大量有线电视内容。
And on top of that, Paramount and Warner Brothers Discovery, if you combine their TV network assets, they control a lot of what's on linear television.
显然，这是一个正在衰退的行业，但依然具有巨大影响力。
Obviously, a declining business, but still incredibly influential.
而双方显然都在说，对方比自己更需要接受审查。
And both, you know, obviously both sides are saying the other one requires more scrutiny than themselves.
所以你是众多认为需要CFIUS审查的人之一，我认为这样说也许是对的。
So You're one of many people who says Cipheus review, which I think maybe it's correct to say it.
但我认为，这实际上是委婉地说，240亿美元的中东石油资金，实在有些离谱。
But I think it's a euphemism of saying, hey, it's kind of wild that $24,000,000,000 of Middle Eastern oil money.
而且，这些资金并非来自这些国家的公司。
And again, it's not from companies in those countries.
而是来自这些国家的主权财富基金。
It's the country's sovereign wealth funds.
资金来源于这些国家。
It's from the countries.
是这些国家的直接延伸。
Direct extension of those countries.
顺便说一下，这240亿美元的数额是埃里森本人计划投入这笔交易金额的两倍。
By the way, that $24,000,000,000 number is double what the Ellisons themselves plan on putting into this deal.
你可能会认为，无论从右翼、左翼，还是那些单纯反对中东人士、或对沙特王储2018年下令谋杀《华盛顿邮报》记者有真实关切的人来看，
And you would think from the right, from the left, from people who are who are just flat out against people from the Middle East and people who have real concerns about, you know, what crown prince of Saudi Arabia had a had a Washington Post journalist murdered in 2018.
你可能会觉得，对此会有更多的抗议声。
You would think there'd be more outcry about that.
我惊讶的是，竟然几乎没有对此进行报道或讨论。
I have been surprised there hasn't been or really much coverage of it at all.
但如果他们是获胜的竞标者，你觉得会这样吗？
Do you think there would be if they were the if they had been the winning bidder though?
嗯，这正是其中一个疑问，因为我一直在问很多人，这涉及到另一个问题：我原本对好莱坞对奈飞赢得这笔交易的强烈反应感到震惊。
I well, that's kinda one of the questions because I've I've been asking a bunch of folks this relates to another question, which was I was a little shocked to see how strong the initial reaction against Netflix winning this was from Hollywood.
我一直觉得，如果你从事电影和电视制作行业，并靠此谋生，那么这两者都值得关注。
And I kept thinking, I I they're both they're both of concern if you're in the business of making movies and television shows and you make a living in Hollywood.
但你会觉得，你同样应该担心埃里森和沙特人，尤其是他们拥有这个实体。
But I would think you'd be equally concerned about about the Ellisons and the Saudis in particular owning this entity.
那么，你认为为什么这群人没有提出异议呢？
And so why do you think that group of people has not complained?
我认为，如果Paramount赢了——这原本是预期的结果——娱乐行业也会对此提出反对。
Well, I think the the entertainment business would have pushed back on either deal if they like, if if Paramount had won, which was the expectation for going into it.
关于Netflix和电影院的那些争议根本就不会存在。
All of the noise that there's been about, you know, Netflix and movie theaters wouldn't really exist.
对吧？
Right?
因为Netflix根本不会赢。
Because Netflix wouldn't have won.
或者所有那些关于‘天啊，Netflix会不会掌控整个好莱坞’的担忧？
Or all the concerns about, oh my god, is Netflix gonna, you know, own all of Hollywood?
人们会关注派拉蒙交易的其他方面。
People would be focused on aspects of Paramount's deal.
他们会为一家电影制片厂的消失而惋惜。
They would be lamenting the loss of a movie studio.
他们可能会谈论外国所有权的问题。
They would be probably talking about foreign ownership.
关于埃里森们对CNN的计划以及新闻业将发生什么，会有更多讨论。
There'd be a lot more discussion of what are the Ellisons planning for CNN and what can happen with the news business.
所以我认为，派拉蒙至少目前还没有赢，这是其中一个重要原因。
So I think the fact that Paramount didn't win, at least yet, is is a big part of it.
另一个原因是，尽管Netflix多年来在节目制作上投入了巨额资金，泰德·萨兰多斯也努力成为了行业中的领军人物。
The other is just even though Netflix has spent so much money on programming over the years and Ted Sarandos has worked very hard to become kind of a a leading figure in the industry.
但他们仍然被许多人视为某种局外人，尤其是在
And and they are still treated by many as something of an outsider in the very
好莱坞圈子里的局外人。
An outsider Hollywood community.
另一部分原因在于。
The other part of it.
没错。
Right.
接下来我想说的是，过去十年里的许多变化，人们都归咎于Netflix。
Well that And that's what I was gonna say next is is a lot of the changes over the last decade, people blame on Netflix.
Netflix显然是这些变化的主要推动者，但人们并不愿意说‘我们的制片厂都搞砸了，这个互联网威胁出现时，没人做出像样的回应，所以我们现在陷入了最强大的玩家是Netflix的局面’，他们宁愿说：‘该死的Netflix，你做事方式不一样，我们不喜欢你。’
Now Netflix has obviously been a primary instigator of that, but rather than just say, you know, all of our studios fucked up, this Internet threat came about, and none of them responded very well, and so we ended up in a situation where now the most powerful player is Netflix, they they they would rather just say, damn you Netflix, you do things differently, we don't like you.
关于奈飞的经营方式，你写过、在播客中讨论过很多内容，其中确实有一些合理的抱怨，但也有一部分只是人们情绪上的不满。
And there are there are some things about the way Netflix has has done business that you have have written about, podcasted about, all of that, that are legitimate gripes and then some of it is just people upset.
我
I
我以为你会说，好莱坞无法抱怨中东资金的一个重要原因，是他们所有人都飞往沙漠寻找中东资金，包括一些非常主流的名字，一些自由派知名人士正在那里进行交易，或希望与中东石油资金达成交易。
thought you were going to say a big reason Hollywood can't complain about Middle Eastern money is they're all flying out to the desert looking for Middle Eastern money, including some very mainstream names, some liberal, well known liberals are out there either doing deals or hoping to get deals made with Middle Eastern oil money.
我认为在高层级上这是真的。
I think that's true at the top level.
但在基层层面，我认为并非如此。
I don't think that's true at the worker level.
对吧？
Right?
而且，对某些人来说，中东似乎是一种有些模糊的威胁，我觉得是这样。
But also The Middle East feels like a somewhat nebulous threat to some of them, I think.
它不像奈飞那样具体可感——如果你是一名编剧或制片人，你会每天切身感受到奈飞对你生活的影响。
It's not as tangible as like, I know what Netflix if if you're a writer or a producer, you are living day to day feeling how Netflix has affected your life.
对。
Right.
如果你是个道具工，你知道城里活儿变少了。
If you're a grip, you know there's less work being done in town.
对。
Right.
即使这是否是奈飞的错，你内心的一部分还是在怪它。
And you even if whether that's Netflix's fault or not, there's a part of you that is blaming them.
嗯。
Mhmm.
如果你得担心沙特阿拉伯对CNN的影响，或者贾马尔·卡舒吉的死亡和谋杀案，这感觉不像一个直接的、迫在眉睫的威胁。
If you have to worry about Saudi Arabian influence on CNN or the death, murder of Jamal Khashoggi, it doesn't feel like an immediate proximate threat.
大多数人都是自私的，所以他们会想，这和任何总统大选中的原因一样。
Most people are self interested, so they're thinking about it's the same reason in any presidential election.
就是：我这一周能负担得起生活吗？
It's like, can I afford my life week to week?
如果我对自己的生活感觉良好，我会这么投票；如果感觉不好，我就会投另一种票。
If I feel good about my life, I'm you know, I vote one way and if I don't, I vote another.
关于石油资金，再讲一点。
One more thing on the oil money.
华纳兄弟探索公司对此事从未公开发表过任何声明。
Warner Brothers Discovery has not said anything on the record about this.
他们既没有发布，也将在不久后提交一份文件，说明他们是如何决定选择奈飞作为买家，而不是派拉蒙或康卡斯特的。
They have not produced and they will any day now, a filing that says, here's how we came about deciding to pick, Netflix as the buyer instead of Paramount or Comcast.
但派拉蒙在他们的文件中暗示——你可以从字里行间看出——华纳兄弟至少在某种程度上对资金来源感到担忧。
But Paramount in their filing has suggested basically, you read between the lines, it looks like Warner Brothers was at least concerned to some degree about the sources of financing.
但这点我不太清楚。
Is that it was but it's unclear to me.
你认为这是因为它们说，‘我们对中东资金感到不安’，还是因为每次你们来找我们，交易条件都略有不同，或者我们有其他顾虑？
Is it do you think that is because they're saying, well, we're uncomfortable with Middle East money or just that every time you come to us, the deal was a little different or we have some other concern?
以上所有原因都有。
All of the above.
根据我与参与这笔交易的人的交谈，人们担心的是，文件类型和资金运作方式似乎随着每次报价而变化。
From the conversations I've had with with people involved in the deal, there was concern that the the kind of the the paperwork and the way the money worked seemed to change with each offer.
人们担心中东资金，即使从道德上讲没有问题，也可能引发他们不希望看到的更严格的监管审查。
There was concern about Middle Eastern money, if not ethically, that it would invite greater regulatory scrutiny that they didn't want.
而更具有阴谋论色彩的说法是，这其实是一个绝佳的借口，让他们能够接受本来就已经更想要的奈飞交易。
And then the I guess, the the more conspiratorial argument would be that it was also a really good pretext for accepting the Netflix deal that they wanted more in the first place.
我们马上回来，但在那之前，先听一段赞助商的广告。
We'll be right back, but first, a word from the sponsor.
本节目由领英赞助支持。
Support for this show comes from LinkedIn.
想象一下，如果所有包含‘我需要一个合适的人来做这份工作’这句台词的电影，都退而求其次说‘随便找个人也行’，
Imagine if any of the movies that included the line, I need the right person for the job, settled for, I'll just take about anyone.
会有多少次劫案失败？
How many heists would have failed?
会有多少笔交易泡汤？
How many deals would have fallen through?
有多少秘密特工任务会以灾难告终？
How many secret spy missions would have ended in disaster?
那么，为什么在为你的企业招聘时，要随便接受任何人呢？
So why would you accept just anyone when hiring for your business?
当你需要找合适的人来做这份工作时，可以使用LinkedIn招聘。
When you need the right person for the job, you can turn to LinkedIn jobs.
现在，LinkedIn招聘推出了全新的AI助手，让你有信心找到其他地方无法寻得的顶尖人才。
And now LinkedIn Jobs is stepping things up with their new AI assistant, so you can feel confident you're finding top talent that you can't find anywhere else.
使用LinkedIn招聘AI助手，你可以跳过繁琐的步骤和招聘术语。
With LinkedIn Jobs AI assistant, you can skip the confusing steps and recruiting jargon.
它会根据你为职位设定的标准筛选求职者，只筛选出最匹配的人选，让你不必被困在堆积如山的简历中。
It filters through applicants based on criteria you've set for your role and surfaces only the best matches so you're not stuck sorting through a mountain of resumes.
一次就招对人。
Hire right the first time.
免费在linkedin.com/partner发布职位，然后推广它以使用LinkedIn招聘的新AI助手，让寻找顶尖候选人变得更简单、更快捷。
Post your job for free at linkedin.com/partner, then promote it to use LinkedIn jobs new AI assistant, making it easier and faster to find top candidates.
这就是 linkedin.com/partner，免费发布您的职位。
That's linkedin.com/partner to post your job for free.
条款和条件适用。
Terms and conditions apply.
本周《净资产与闲聊》节目中，我将为您独家抢先 preview 我的新书《天赋异禀》，该书将于2月3日上市。
This week on Net Worth and Chill, I'm giving you an exclusive sneak peek at my new book, Well Endowed, hitting shelves February 3.
我写这本书是因为我相信每个人都值得建立真正契合自己生活的财富，而不是盲目遵循那些并非为我们量身定制的刻板理财建议。
I wrote this book because I believe everyone deserves to build wealth that actually works for their life, not just follow some cookie cutter financial advice that wasn't made for us.
我将分享构建代际财富、自信投资以及创造您真正想要的财务未来的真正策略。
I'm sharing the real strategies for building generational wealth, investing with confidence, and creating the financial future you actually want.
这不仅仅是一本普通的个人理财书籍。
This isn't just another personal finance book.
它是一份指南，帮助您掌控自己的财务命运，建立能带来选择权、自由和内心安宁的财富。
It's a roadmap for taking control of your financial destiny and building the kind of wealth that gives you options, freedom, and peace of mind.
现在就在各大售书平台预购《天赋异禀》，准备好彻底改变您与金钱的关系。
Preorder Well Endowed now wherever books are sold and get ready to transform your relationship with money.
在您常用的任何播客平台收听本周的节目，或在 youtube.com/yourrichbff 观看。
Listen to this week's episode wherever you get your podcasts or watch on youtube.com/yourrichbff.
本节目由 Zapier 赞助。
Support for this show comes from Zapier.
如今，一切都与人工智能挂钩。
Everything comes with AI nowadays.
就连冰箱和猫砂盆都变成了智能科技产品。
Even refrigerators and litter boxes are becoming smart tech.
尽管这些应用可能很酷，值得在晚宴上讨论，但关键问题仍然是：人工智能究竟能为你的企业做些什么？
And while all these applications might be cool and worth talking about at a dinner party, the big question remains, what can AI actually do for your business?
Zapier 表示，他们旨在帮助你落实企业的AI战略，而不仅仅是空谈。
Zapier says they're here to help you deliver on your business AI strategy, not just talk about it.
通过 Zapier 的人工智能编排平台，你可以将人工智能的强大功能融入任何工作流程，让你更专注于真正重要的事情。
With Zapier's AI orchestration platform, you can bring the power of AI to any workflow so you can do more of what matters.
团队已经使用 Zapier 来优化其营收运营、市场营销、销售、IT、人力资源等流程。
Teams already use Zapier to streamline their rev ops, marketing, sales, IT, HR, and more.
你可以将 ChatGPT 和 Claude 等顶级 AI 模型与团队已使用的工具连接起来，从而在你需要的地方精准添加 AI 功能。
You can connect top AI models like ChatGPT and Claude to the tools your team already uses so you can add AI exactly where you need it.
Zapier 适合所有人，无论你是不是技术专家。
Zapier is for everyone, tech expert or not.
团队已经使用 Zapier 自动化了超过三亿个 AI 任务。
And teams have already automated over 300,000,000 AI tasks using Zapier.
加入数百万正在通过 Zapier 和 AI 改变工作方式的企业行列吧。
Join the millions of businesses transforming how they work with Zapier and AI.
访问 zapier.com/decoder 免费开始使用。
Get started for free by visiting zapier.com/decoder.
网址是 zapier.com/decoder。
That's zapier.com/decoder.
我们回来了。
And we're back.
是什么让这两位巨头中的一个选择认输？
What prompts one of these two titans to to tap out?
汪汪。
Bow wow.
他们什么时候说好的？
When when did they say, alright.
我们不行。
We we cannot.
这事已成定局。
It's a done deal.
太多钱，太多麻烦。
Too much money, too much hassle.
嗯。
Mhmm.
我猜是这样。
I assume.
我的意思是，他们已经参与了好几个月了，不可能只是突然改变主意。
I mean, they're they're they're they're they've been in it for months now, so it can't just be we change our mind.
对吧？
Right?
肯定是因为我们已经正式达到了一个不想支付的价格，而且如果你回想一下之前发生的事，你知道，迪士尼同意收购福克斯的大部分娱乐资产。
It's gotta be we have officially reached a a price that we don't wanna pay and how like, if you think back to what happened where, you know, Disney agreed to buy most of the entertainment assets from Fox.
然后康卡斯特跳出来 saying，嘿，等等。
And then Comcast comes in and says, hey, wait a minute.
我们要提高报价，迫使董事会认真考虑，这迫使迪士尼支付了更多钱。
We're gonna come up over your offer so that the board has to really think about it, which then forced Disney to pay even more.
没错。
Yep.
我们这里的情况也非常相似。
We're in a very similar situation here.
我的意思是，有点不同，因为之前似乎没有出现过这种情况——如果你错了请纠正我，我不记得有过多个方公开竞标，而且接近到这种程度的情况。
I mean, a little bit different in that there hadn't been sort of this, and you can correct me if I'm wrong, I don't remember there being sort of like a public auction between multiple parties with Nothing that close to it.
迪士尼和福克斯直接说，我们达成协议了，所有人都惊呆了。
Disney and Fox just said, we have a deal, and everyone went, holy crap.
然后康卡斯特介入了。
And then Comcast came in.
但在这方面，情况类似：华纳兄弟已与奈飞达成协议，派拉蒙不会退出，最终可能会达到一个价格，使得任何一方都说：这价格太高了，我不干了。
But in this, it is similar in that Warner Brothers has agreed to a deal with Netflix, Paramount is not going away, and it may get to a price where either side finally says, too rich for my blood, I don't want to do it.
我们实际上还没有提高报价，所以还没到那一步，从双方的行为来看，派拉蒙和奈飞都已坚决立场——奈飞本周发布了一份看似面向员工的问答材料，但显然也是为了向公众传达信息。
We haven't actually added to the offers yet, so we're not there yet, and it doesn't feel from the behaviors, both Paramount and Netflix have really dug their heels in their you know, Netflix issued issued something this week that was essentially like a Q and A answering questions, was presented as for our employees, but was clearly as much as anything for the public.
他们确实很认真，每一方都专注于反驳他们认为损害自身立场的舆论叙事。
They're real, you know, each side is very focused on combating the narratives that they think hurt their cases.
但很多这类操作都关乎公众认知，而我仍然认为，这笔交易归根结底是钱的问题。
But a lot of that is about kind of public perception, and this I still say that this deal comes down to dollars and cents.
谁更需要这笔交易？
Who needs this deal more?
派拉蒙。
Oh, Paramount.
为什么？
Because?
因为它规模更小，本质上是一家更弱的公司，对吧？
Because it's a smaller, it is a fundamentally weaker company, right?
大卫·艾利森收购了派拉蒙，或将其与自己的公司Skydance合并，因为这是他进入顶级圈子的方式。
David Allison bought Paramount or merged it with his company Skydance, because that was his way of sort of getting in the big leagues.
但他收购的是好莱坞大公司中最小、最弱的一家。
But he bought the smallest and weakest of the big Hollywood companies.
对吧？
Right?
它是排名最后或倒数第二的电影制片厂。
It's the kind of last place or second to last place movie studio.
它是一种第三梯队的流媒体服务。
It's kind of a third tier streaming service.
它仍然主要依靠那些正在缓慢或迅速衰落的有线电视网络赚钱。
It still makes pretty much all of its money from these cable networks that are slowly dying or rapidly dying.
因此，如果你试图为这家公司规划未来，看吧，他可以把这笔交易中他们将要花的所有钱都投资到派拉蒙身上。
And so if you were trying to position that company for the future, look, he can take all the money that they're gonna spend on this deal and just invest it in Paramount.
展开剩余字幕（还有 243 条）
嗯。
Mhmm.
反对这些交易的理由就是，与其经历两年麻烦的过程，不如直接买下一大堆东西，对吧？
That is the argument against these deals is like, rather than dealing with two years of pain in the ass process, like, just buy a bunch of stuff, Right?
去收购一些知识产权，投几部剧集。
Go out and buy some IP, spend a bunch of shows.
这就是奈飞在没有时会做的事。
This is what Netflix would do when they didn't
所以，奈飞在股价、资金实力以及流媒体服务地位方面显然处于更强的位置，但我认为，奈飞认真追求这笔交易这一事实，向长期关注奈飞的人传递了一个信号：也许这家公司并没有公众所认为的那么稳固。
So bid on Netflix is obviously in a much stronger position in terms of its stock price, in terms of how much money, in terms of where its streaming service However, I would say that the fact that Netflix is seriously going after this deal signals to longtime Netflix watchers that maybe the company is not on a secure footing as the public would be led to believe.
没错。
Yeah.
这正是我们几周前讨论的内容。
That's what you and I were talking about a couple weeks ago.
这是实力还是弱点？
Is this strength or weakness?
这可能是两者兼而有之。
It can be some of both.
对。
Right.
我的意思是，如果你站在奈飞这边，或许可以这么论证。
I mean, you I guess you could make the argument if you're on the Netflix side.
你看，我们以前从未做过这些交易，但我们也从未有机会收购HBO。
Like, look, we haven't done any of these deals before, but we never had the chance to buy HBO.
这是一部电影。
This is a movie.
这是
This is
一个独一无二的资产。
a one of a kind asset.
我们再也不用跟有线电视网络打交道了。
We don't have to deal with the cable networks anymore.
而且你知道，类似这样的机会再次出现的可能性非常小，因为如果大卫·埃里森买下了它，他不会把它卖掉。
And, you know, the the the odds of anything like this coming up again are very slim because if David Ellison buys it, he's not getting rid of it.
环球影业不会走远。
Universal is not going anywhere.
迪士尼也不会走远。
Disney's not going anywhere.
还有什么其他的呢？
What what else is there
对于我们华纳兄弟探索频道、奈飞和康卡斯特来说，我们只想收购这个工作室以及基本上是HBO。
for us Warner Brothers Discovery, Netflix, and Comcast, only wanted to buy the studio and basically HBO.
那里最有价值的资产是什么？
What what is the most valuable asset there?
是电影工作室，还是HBO？HBO是一个非常不错的流媒体平台，但并不是最受欢迎的？
Is it the movie studio or is it HBO, which is a very good streamer but not the most popular?
我不知道，如果这些资产单独交易的话，哪个资产会获得最高的估值。
I don't know what the the which asset would be given like the, you know, the greatest valuation if it were to be traded on a standalone basis.
但我认为，对于试图收购它的两家公司来说，电影工作室固然重要，但更重要的是电视工作室，这才是最有价值的资产。
But I think for both of the companies trying to buy it, that the studio film, yes, but even more importantly, the television studio is the most valuable asset.
因为华纳兄弟如果将电影和电视工作室合并，要么是好莱坞第一大工作室，至少也是第二大工作室；他们的电视业务非常强大，比如为苹果制作《泰德·拉索》，也为奈飞制作了大量热门剧集，还为其他平台制作内容。
Because Warner Brothers, if you combine a film and TV studio, is either the number one studio or maybe the number two studio in Hollywood, it's television business, know, they make Ted Lasso for Apple and they make a bunch of hit shows already for Netflix and for they produce for for everyone.
是的。
Yes.
而且他们拥有《老友记》的丰富版权库，我相信还有《生活大爆炸》，以及一大堆在任何流媒体平台上都会非常有价值的作品。
And and they own a deep catalog of Friends, and I believe Big Bang Theory, and just like a bunch of things that would be great in any streaming catalog.
所以对我来说，这才是最有价值的资产。
So that to me is the most valuable asset.
流媒体服务和HBO显然也有强大的品牌和丰富的片库，我认为这对派拉蒙来说可能同样有价值，因为它能极大推动其流媒体业务的发展。
The streaming service, and HBO's obviously also has a strong brand, strong catalog, I think is is maybe as if valuable for Paramount because of how it can supercharge them and streaming.
对于奈飞来说，主要看重的还是内容库。
For Netflix, it's it's largely about catalog.
嗯。
Mhmm.
它几乎和华纳兄弟的片库一样有价值，但我觉得还是稍逊一筹。
It's almost as valuable as the Warner Brothers catalog, but I don't think quite as.
无论这笔交易最终以何种方式达成，你和我多年来一直做这个播客，一直在问：并购潮什么时候到来？
And when this deal gets done one way or another, we've been talking you and I have been doing versions of this podcast for years saying, when's all the consolidation happening?
什么时候？
When's all?
它正在发生。
It's happening.
它正在发生。
It's happening.
我们最终只会剩下某种形态。
We will be left with some version.
我的意思是，康卡斯特依然会存在。
I mean, Comcast will still be here.
迪士尼也还在。
Disney's around.
还有更多的合并会发生吗？
Like, is there more merging left to happen?
康卡斯特一直试图退出媒体业务，但与此同时，它却表明希望在媒体上投入更多资金。
Comcast had been getting out of the media business that it was signaling it wants to spend more money on media.
他们会去收购别的东西吗？
Do they go buy something else?
顺便说一下，他们的说法现在和奈飞的立场差不多。
Their line, by the way, is sort of the Netflix line now.
我们原本不打算花在收购这个资产上的钱，现在可以投入到内容制作中了。
Well, the money that we weren't gonna spend on on on buying this asset, we can now put into programming.
他们并没有明确这么说，但意思就是这个。
They they don't quite say that, but that's sort of the suggestion.
而且，他们根本不可能接受这两方达成的这个价格。
And that they you know, there was no way that they were gonna come to the price that these two parties have come to.
我的意思是，接下来会发生什么，可能稍微取决于谁赢了这场博弈。
I mean, what happens next might depend a little bit on who wins this.
嗯。
Mhmm.
我认为如果派拉蒙赢了，其他参与者就不会有太强烈的即时反应，因为这是两个规模较小、 somewhat struggling 的实体合并。
I think if Paramount wins, then there's less of an knee jerk reaction from other players because you have two smaller, somewhat struggling entities combining.
人们会观望大卫·埃里森会怎么做。
And people will wait and see what David Ellison does.
我认为如果网飞获得了它，这对其而言是个更大的问题——因为迪士尼会坐在这里想：哎呀，我们一直以来相对于网飞的最大优势，就是拥有世界上最大、最丰富的知识产权和角色库，而现在网飞拥有了几乎和我们一样好、甚至可能更好的东西，这取决于你怎么评估你所看到的内容。
I think if Netflix gets it, it's a bigger problem for it's it's one where Disney sits there and goes, uh-oh, like, our big advantage on Netflix has always been that we are sitting on, you know, the greatest library of intellectual property and characters in the world, and now Netflix has something that's almost as good as ours, maybe better, you know, depending on how you're valuing what you're looking at.
所以这可能会引发他们的回应，但我真的不确定。
So it could provoke a response from them, but I don't really know.
我的意思是，那要一两年后才会发生。
I mean, that's that's a year or two down the line.
而且还有
And also
但我的意思是，在这之后，你还能再怎么调整这些资源吗？
But I mean, can't can you even move the pieces around much more after this?
嗯，我认为会是不同类型的东西。
Well, it I think it'd be different type it'd be different types of pieces.
对吧？
Right?
比如，康卡斯特曾与电子游戏公司艺电有过接触。
Like, Comcast had that flirtation with Electronic Arts, the video game company
却被沙特阿拉伯收购了。
Bought by Saudi Arabia instead.
被沙特阿拉伯收购了。
Bought by Saudi Arabia.
有没有类似这样的情况？
What is there something like that out there?
有没有人想收购Take Two Interactive，也就是《侠盗猎车手》等游戏的工作室？
Does someone try to buy Take Two Interactive, the Grand Theft Auto game studio among others?
再说，这种大型公司也没多少了。
Does again, they're not that many huge companies.
这些公司中有没有一家被大型科技公司收购了？
Do one of those gets sold to a giant tech company?
当然。
Sure.
康卡斯特会不会说，你知道吗？
Does does Comcast say, you know what?
我们会把NBC环球卖了，我的意思是，我觉得这笔交易不太可能发生，但我们会把它卖给谷歌。
We'll sell NBCUniversal to I mean, I may I don't think that deal's gonna happen, but we'll sell it to Google.
或者迪士尼最终会——嗯。
Or does Disney finally Mhmm.
做大家一直都在猜测的那件事吗？
Do the thing that everyone has been wondering about?
比如，苹果会收购迪士尼吗？
Like, is Apple gonna buy Disney?
但你为什么认为，那些传统的科技巨头——显然Netflix也被视为科技公司——但我们所知的这些传统科技公司都没有对这些资产真正出价呢？
But Why do you think that none of the traditional tech players obviously, Netflix was considered tech player, but none of the traditional tech companies that we know of made a real bid for these assets?
我们一直听说他们不想涉足有线网络，所以这很合理。
We've been told forever that they wanted no part of a cable network, so that made sense.
但如果你能收购华纳兄弟工作室和HBO，这看起来正是对流媒体感兴趣的大型科技公司会考虑的交易。
But if you could buy Warner Brothers studio and HBO, that seems like the kind of thing a big tech company with interest in streaming would take a run at.
这无疑是戴维·扎斯拉夫所希望并表示的，他希望亚马逊或苹果这样的公司介入。
That's certainly what David Zaslav was hoping and saying he wanted Amazon or Apple, someone like that to come in.
只有苹果和亚马逊是真正说得通的选择。
Apple and Amazon are the only ones that would make any plausible sense.
对吧？
Right?
对于谷歌、Meta或微软来说，这根本不在他们的业务范畴内。
This is just not in the wheelhouse for a Google or a Meta or a Microsoft.
他们没有地方可以利用它，除非他们想彻底改变自己在流媒体和娱乐领域的策略。
They don't there's there's no place for the nothing for them to do with it unless they were wanted to fundamentally change their approach to streaming and entertainment.
所以苹果和亚马逊是那些与这些公司处于同一领域的玩家。
So Apple and Amazon are the ones who sort of play in the same pool as these others.
我的意思是，苹果从不做大交易，他们的娱乐业务仍然感觉像是一个附带的小项目，而不是真正的投入。
I mean, Apple never does big deals, and their entertainment business still feels like a flirtation not a flirtation, but like a nice little side project.
对吧？
Right?
这并不是苹果业务的核心。
It's not like central to the Apple business.
娱乐业务对亚马逊来说已经变得稍微重要了一些。
Entertainment has become a little more central for Amazon.
他们投入了真金白银，长期锁定体育赛事版权。
They have invested real money committed to long term sports rights.
我不确定。
I don't know.
他们收购了米高梅，那只是个折中的举措，嗯。
They did the deal for MGM, which was like a half measure Mhmm.
和这个相比的话。
Compared to this.
我认为，对他们来说，这最多只是一笔好坏参半的交易。
I don't I think it's been a mixed deal for them at best.
他们从中获得了一点收益，但并没有对流媒体业务产生变革性的影响。
They've gotten a little bit out of it, but it's not like been transformational for streaming.
我认为，对这两家公司中的任何一家来说，这都将是有史以来最大的一笔交易。
I believe for either company, it would be the biggest deal that they've ever done.
那你如何向股东们解释，我们最需要做的最大一笔交易，竟然是在一个并非我们最重要业务的领域？
And why are you going how are you going to your shareholders and saying the biggest deal we need to do is in this business that is not our most important business.
这甚至不是我们第二重要的业务。
It's not our second most important business.
甚至可能连第三重要的业务都算不上。
It might not even be our third most important business.
我们马上回来，但在那之前，先听一段赞助商的广告。
We'll be right back, but first, a word from a sponsor.
我们回来了。
And we're back.
如果我们一开始没有谈华纳兄弟的命运，我会说，哇。
If we didn't start off this conversation talking about, the fate of Warner Brothers, I'd say, wow.
今年似乎是人工智能在好莱坞大放异彩的一年。
It seems like a big year for AI in Hollywood.
我们一直听到这方面的消息。
We've been hearing about this.
也许今年，事情终于开始有起色了。
Maybe this year, it's things are finally clicking in.
上周，迪士尼和OpenAI达成了一项协议。
Last week, Disney and OpenAI did a deal.
据报道，迪士尼开出了十亿美元的支票，这让我感到惊讶。
Disney is apparently writing a check for a billion dollars, which is surprising to me.
我以为他们只是以股权形式入股，因为他们没那么多现金。
I I thought they were just getting in kind equity because they don't have that much cash.
但他们却给OpenAI开了一张十亿美元的支票。
But they're writing a billion dollar check to OpenAI.
他们将授权一些角色。
They're gonna license some of the characters.
你觉得这笔交易是有实际意义、象征意义，还是两者兼有？
Do you think that deal is meaningful or symbolic or both?
我认为目前它更多是象征性的，而非具有商业实质意义。
I think it's more symbolic than commercially meaningful right now.
这是一家好莱坞最大、最负盛名的公司之一，同时也是最保守的公司之一，竟然达成了这项协议，这非同寻常。
It is a huge deal that the kind of biggest, most one of the most storied companies in Hollywood, that is also one of the more risk averse companies.
他们一向对知识产权保护得非常严密。
Famously protective about their IP.
竟然与人工智能领域新兴的巨头达成了协议。
Did a deal with kind of the the the big new player on the block in artificial intelligence.
所以我认为，仅凭这一点，这便是一项重大突破。
So I think for that, it's a huge deal.
它将促使其他公司纷纷效仿，尝试与OpenAI、谷歌或其他公司达成类似协议。
It will it will usher in other companies trying to do similar deals, whether it's with OpenAI or with Google or with someone else.
他们所同意的这些内容到底有多重要，比如以当前估值获得价值十亿美元的OpenAI股票，其实并不算什么。
How much what they've agreed to really matters, you know, getting a billion dollars worth of stock in OpenAI at the current valuation, you know, not that great.
我的意思是，如果OpenAI未来成为一家市值数万亿美元的公司，那对迪士尼来说确实是一笔不错的回报，但并不算特别重大。
I mean, if it becomes a multi trillion dollar company, it's a nice return for Disney, but it's not that significant.
允许用户在Sora应用中使用迪士尼角色，这可能是最重要、最核心的交易。
Allowing people to use the Disney characters within the Sora app is probably the big the the single, you know, it's it's the biggest deal.
这就好比迪士尼。
It it's it's it'd be like Disney.
这就像上世纪1978年那些与YouTube达成授权协议的公司一样。
It'd be like the companies that did licensing deals with with YouTube in 02/1978, what have you.
我们还不知道真正受欢迎的AI视频会是什么样子。
We don't really know what popular, like really popular AI video looks like yet.
我们还不清楚能够加入某个角色（尽管不包括其声音）会有多重要。
We don't know how important it will be to be able to include a character, although not their voice.
而且，坦率地说，用户生成这些内容是否真的有意义。
And and whether, frankly, whether users generating this stuff is meaningful.
我们都逐渐被训练得认为这很有意义，但其实我们并不确定。
We all sort of been trained to know that is meaningful but we don't really know
如果人们想要的是这个应用，或者将是谷歌应用，或者是你还不知道的、不太知名的应用，那就不好说了。
if Well, people wanna it's gonna be the app or whether it's gonna be the Google app or it's gonna be another app you don't even know about yet, or that is lesser known.
所以，我认为在它有多重要这个问题上，还是得等等看。
So, I I think it's a little wait and see on on how much it matters.
你上一次使用Sora是什么时候？
When's the last time you used Sora?
我并不经常使用它。
I don't use it very often.
嗯。
Yeah.
我想这就是答案。
I think that's the answer.
你为《彭博商业周刊》写过关于AI在好莱坞一年表现的文章，值得一读。
And then you wrote about sort of the the AI's year in Hollywood and and it for Bloomberg Business Week, you should check it out.
有些人害怕它。
There's people who are afraid of it.
有些人说这是不可避免的。
There's people who say this is inevitable.
我认为对我们来说更实际的一个分歧是，在我看来，AI就像任何技术一样，显然会被用于生产中。
The other cleavage that I think is more practical for us is it seems like it to me, that it's quite clear that AI, like any kind of technology, is going to be used to in production.
对吧？
Right?
为了降低成本、提高速度，无论哪种形式，都是如此。
To decrease costs, increase speed, whatever it is, all variations of that.
这似乎是不可避免的。
And that seems inevitable.
它可能会让你感到不安，但这就是技术的本质；另一问题是，AI会从根本上改变我们制作和消费的内容吗？
It might make you feel uneasy, but that's just how technology The other is, is AI gonna fundamentally change what gets made and what we consume?
是仅仅带来更好的视觉效果，还是电影本身这一媒介也会发生变化？
Is it is it just better visual effects or is the movie is the medium itself gonna be different?
媒介本身会不同吗？
Is the medium itself gonna be different?
我们会创造出完全新型的作品来取代电影吗？
Do we create entirely new kinds of work that supplant movies?
这种情况总是可能发生的。
That that's can always be the case.
当你和好莱坞那些对它感到兴奋或恐惧的人交谈时，哪种情况最能引发他们的情绪？我猜人们最情绪化的是AI直接涌入并取代创意产业的大量岗位。
When you talk to people in Hollywood who are excited or fearful of it, which which is the version that stir I'm assuming the thing people get most emotional about is sort of AI just coming in and replacing a huge swaths of the creative business.
没错。
Correct.
如果它仅仅成为一种更高效、更优秀地制作视觉效果的工具，或者你可以用它，没人会因此感到不安。
Nobody is gonna be if it just becomes a tool to make visual effects more efficient or better or you can use it.
我的意思是，虽然它现在已经被用于预可视化之类的地方，让你能更快地创建出你想象中某物的模型，但这其实没什么大不了的。
I mean, though some of the ways that's already being used for like pre visualization so that you can rather you can more quickly, create a, you know, a model for what you think something could look like, like, that's not a huge deal.
但如果突然间，原本需要90天的制作周期缩短到30天，或者某些岗位被取代，又或者人们举出一个被认为是好事的例子——比如，不再需要重新拍摄、让演员和团队重返片场，而是你已经拍好了素材，可以用AI直接进行重拍。
But if suddenly, you know, what is a ninety day production is thirty days, or you have certain jobs that get replaced, or you have, you know, an example that people come up with as a good thing is like, okay, rather than having to reshoot something and have people go back on set and all of that, you can just you've already captured them and you can, you know, do a reshoot with AI.
这听起来很高效，很棒，但也意味着更少的工作。
That sounds efficient and great, but it also does mean less work.
你本来是要付那些演员回来拍戏的。
You were gonna pay those actors to come back on the set.
不只是演员，你还提到了灯光师、录音师或服装师。
And you were not just the actors, but you you talked about grip or sound people or costume people.
对吧？
Right?
比如，人们担心，以后还需要化妆师吗？还是全部都靠数字技术完成？
Like, there's the concern about what if, do we are we gonna have makeup artists still or is it just all gonna be done digitally?
这就是让人焦虑的地方，而我们目前仍处于一个人们还不确定的阶段。
So that's the part where people get anxious, and and we're still in a phase where people don't know.
对吧？
Right?
比如，2023年好莱坞的演员和编剧都曾罢工，当时AI并不是主要问题，但在罢工过程中，它逐渐变得越来越重要。
Like, the these you had both the actors and writers in Hollywood went on strike in 2023, and AI wasn't the issue, but over the course of that strike, it became a bigger part of it.
当时，人们真的什么都不知道。
And at the time, people really knew nothing.
对吧？
Right?
现在你了解得更多了一点，但仍然不太清楚。
Now you know a little more, but it's still not really clear.
没错。
Right.
因为有一种说法是，嘿，我们以前见过那些群演。
Because there's this idea of like, hey, I was we saw him extras.
现在我们在制作中称他们为背景演员。
Now we call him background actor in this production.
结果我发现，我可能已经放弃了我的权利，再也不会被聘为群演或背景演员了，因为他们会直接用数字技术复刻我。
And it turns out that I may have signed my rights away, and I'm never gonna get hired as an extra slash background actor again because they're just gonna digitally reproduce me.
现在看来，这似乎相当合理。
That seems pretty plausible now.
认为哈里森·福特的形象会被未经他同意地使用，这显得不太合理。
Less plausible is like to believe Less plausible is is Harrison Ford's image and like this is gonna be used without his consent.
但他可能为了巨额报酬而出售这些权利，并且对此并不介意。
But he may he may sell those rights for a lot of money and wouldn't complain about that.
我认为‘同意’才是关键。
I think that consent is the keyword.
对吧？
Right?
即使在谈论背景演员时，我也不清楚他们所达成协议的详细条款。
Even when you're talking about background actors, and I don't know the the ins and outs of whatever they the what whatever deals they strike.
但理论上，如果他们为你拍摄了电影，就应该有权继续使用这些拍摄内容用于该电影。
But in theory, if they capture you for a movie, they should be able to continue to use whatever they capture for that movie.
但他们不应该在未经付费的情况下，将你用于所有未来的电影中。
They should not be able to use you in all movies going forward without paying you.
我认为，如果你本身已经很有名，那你就像坐在有利位置上一样，因为如果你试图在未经哈里森·福特许可的情况下再次使用他，肯定会被告上法庭，公众形象也会严重受损，根本得不偿失。
And I I don't think if you are someone who is already famous, you are in the catbird seat as they say because yeah, if you were to try to use Harrison Ford again without his permission, you'd get sued, it would look really bad publicly, it just wouldn't be worth the hassle.
对。
Right.
但关于背景人物，是的。
But background Yeah.
我们以前讨论过这个。
And we talked about this a while back.
我的意思是，每当你上台，经常参加媒体采访，都会有人给你一些标准条款让你签署。
I mean, whenever you go on stage and very often do a media hit, someone gives you some boilerplate language to sign.
如果你看一下授权书，上面写着：你的形象可以在全球范围内永久使用，诸如此类，我们不会再为此补偿你。
If you look at the release, it says, you're likeness can be used in perpetuity around the world, blah, blah, blah, we'll never compensate you for it again.
至少就我而言，我不认为人们会用我的说话头像来重新制作他们的电影。
At least in my case, I just don't think people are going to be repopulating their movies with my talking head.
但我认为，今后我会更仔细地查看这些合同。
But I think I will probably look at those contracts a little more closely going forward.
这取决于它们有多长。
Depends how long they are.
你和Spotify的协议怎么样了
How's your deal with Spotify on the
马特·贝利尼的节目？
Matt Bellini show?
我的协议？
My deal?
根本就没有。
It's nonexistent.
那是我的一个小玩笑。
That was my little inside joke.
你出现在《纽约时报》对马特·贝利尼的专访中。
You were featured in the Matt Bellini profile in New York Times.
那里有一张你的照片客串。
There there was a cameo from you, photo.
我出现在照片里。
I was featured in photos.
确实如此。
That's true.
你出现在《纽约时报》后，生活有改变吗？
Did your life change after being appearing in the New York
报纸上？
Times print?
没有。
It did not.
为了澄清一下，我每周日会买《纽约时报》纸质版，但主要是一些公关人员、家人朋友和65岁以上的亲戚联系了我。
I heard from a lot of just so we're clear, I get the New York Times print on Sunday, but primarily, I heard from publicists and family friends and relatives 65 and up.
粉丝操，有些情况下，听这个播客的也正是这样的人。
Fan fucking that's who listens to this podcast too in some cases.
卢卡斯·肖，年底了。
Lucas Shaw, it's the end of the year.
给我推荐一些今年你看过、听过或读过的精彩媒体内容吧，我觉得其他人也会感兴趣。
Give me some awesome media you consumed this year that you think other people might want to read, listen to, watch.
不一定每种都要有。
Doesn't have to be one of each.
随便你喜欢的。
Whatever you like.
嗯。
Yeah.
我其实没怎么找到特别满意的电影，因为我看了不少喜欢的，但没有哪一部能明确地说是我今年最爱的。我最近去看了一部巴西电影《秘密特工》，真的很喜欢，推荐大家去看。
I don't I the movies I've been struggling with because I've seen a lot of stuff that I've liked, but nothing that, like, was clearly like, I went I just went to see this Brazilian movie, The Secret Agent, which I really enjoyed and I would recommend people seeing.
但我一直在等一部电影能让我眼前一亮，说这就是我今年最爱的电影。
But I keep waiting for a movie to, like, knock me away and say that was my favorite movie of the year.
但还没等到。
That has not happened yet.
除了我那个上瘾的剧《土地》之外，我最近看的最后一部电视剧是苹果上的马丁·斯科塞斯纪录片系列。
The last TV show that I watched, other than the guilty pleasure that is Landman that I would recommend, is the Martin Scorsese docuseries on Apple.
如果你对马丁·斯科塞斯或他的电影感兴趣，这部真的非常棒。
If you care about him or his movies, it's really great.
而且这不是一部圣徒传记。
And it is not hagiography.
它毫不回避地展现了他复杂的个性、吸毒等问题。
It does not pull punches about the complicated person that he is or drug use or any of that.
过去几个月，我们迎来了大量优秀的全新音乐。
We've had a really good run of new music over the last few months.
莉莉·艾伦的新专辑、罗萨莉亚的新作，还有人们非常喜爱的乐队Geese。
The new Lily Allen, the new Rosalia, people are in love with this band, Geese.
我都推荐。
I recommend all those.
说得像个中年大叔一样，这个乐队，Geese。
Said said like a really middle aged guy, like, this band, Geese.
是的。
Yes.
你看过Geese乐队主唱卡梅隆·温特的视频片段吗？
Did you see the clips of Cameron Winter, who's the Geese front man
表演它？
performing it?
表演过了。
Performed.
在卡内基音乐厅，当时保罗·托马斯·安德森正在那里拍摄他？
At Carnegie Hall with Paul Thomas Anderson was filming him there?
他上周日据我在洛杉矶看了演出，我很遗憾错过了。
He performed in LA, I believe, Sunday night, and I am sad that I missed it.
但没错，这些都是很棒的事情。
But, yeah, those are those are all good things.
如果你想找点不那么热门的，今年我看过最有趣的演出之一，是英国朋克乐队Lambrini Girls。
If you want something slightly less popular, one of the most fun shows I've been to this year was a British punk group called the Lambrini Girls.
我以前对朋克音乐其实没什么兴趣，但今年我开始有点入迷了。
I've never really cared about punk music, but I've gotten a little into it this year.
所以她们真的很有趣。
So they're fun.
好的。
Okay.
卢卡斯·肖，半大老头。
Lucas Shaw, semi old man.
年轻人。
Young man.
朋克音乐一点。
Punk music a little bit.
卢卡·肖，很高兴再次见到你。
Luca Shaw, great to see you again.
彼此彼此。
Likewise.
再次感谢你前来。
Thanks for coming on once again.
祝你2025年剩下的时间愉快。
Enjoy the rest of 2025.
明年见。
See you next year.
到时候见。
See you then.
再次感谢卢卡·肖。
Thanks again to Luca Shaw.
太棒了。
It was awesome.
明年我们会更频繁地邀请他。
We'll have him on more often next year.
这算不算一个新年决心？
How about that for a New Year's resolution?
再次感谢夏洛特·西尔弗，她负责制作和剪辑这档节目。
Thanks again to Charlotte Silver who produces and edits this show.
我很高兴能与她合作。
I'm delighted to work with her.
她很棒。
She's great.
感谢我们的赞助商。
Thanks to our sponsors.
你知道我们为什么喜欢我们的赞助商吗？
You know why we love our sponsors?
他们免费将这个节目带给你们。
They bring this show to you for free.
也要感谢你们所有人。
And thanks to you guys.
如果没有你们在听、参与、写评论、讨论和分享这些内容，做这个节目就毫无意义。
Literally, there is no point in making this thing unless you guys are listening and engaged and writing and talking and sharing this stuff.
我非常感激。
I'm very appreciative.
非常感谢。
Thanks a lot.
接下来几周，我们会为你带来几期精彩的附加节目。
We've got a couple cool bonus shows coming for you the next couple weeks.
当我们发布时，你会知道这些节目是什么，我在一月再见。
You'll see what those are when we drop them, and I'll see you in January.
谢谢。
Thanks.
关于 Bayt 播客
Bayt 提供中文+原文双语音频和字幕，帮助你打破语言障碍，轻松听懂全球优质播客。