莎拉·佩恩——俄罗斯为何输掉冷战

东欧人民作为一个群体，受教育程度更高，也比俄罗斯人更富裕。

People in Eastern Europe as a group were more well educated, and they were richer than Russians.

这就像一个环形帝国，当帝国延伸到东欧时，俄罗斯人再也无法从东欧这些农奴人口身上榨取财富，这解释了为什么他们想离开。

It was like a doughnut empire so that when the empire went to Eastern Europe, Russians could no longer siphon off the wealth of these in serf populations in Eastern Europe, which explains why they lee wanted to leave.

这也说明了为什么普京希望他们重新回归。

It also suggests why Putin wants them back.

另一个错误的假设与邻国的情感有关。

Or another false assumption has to do with the sentiments of the neighbors.

戈尔巴乔夫坚信，他会因为解放东欧而获得赞誉，而不是因为作为俄罗斯人最初压迫他们而受到责备。

Gorbachev was convinced he was gonna get credit for liberating Eastern Europe rather than blame as a Russian for having them surfed them in the first place.

对于戈尔巴乔夫来说，时钟是在他的手表上开始走动的。

For Gorbachev, the the clock began on his watch.

对其他人来说，不是这样。

For other people no.

不是。

No.

斯大林时期，当他开始大规模处决人的时候。

Stalin's when it began, when he started shooting a lot of people.

因此，你这里有戈尔巴乔夫的外交政策顾问阿纳托利·切尔尼亚耶夫说，戈尔巴乔夫认为，给东欧卫星国带来自由，会使它们采纳有人情味的社会主义。

So here you have Anatoly Cherniaev, foreign policy adviser to Gorbachev saying that Gorbachev thought that bringing freedom to our Eastern European satellites would have them adopt socialism with a human face.

他犯了一个巨大的错误，因为这些国家冷酷地背弃了我们。

He made an enormous mistake because these countries brutally turned their back on us.

真的吗？

Really?

如果这叫冷酷，那斯大林又算什么？

If that's brutal, then what, pray tell, was Stalin?

情况还变得更糟了。

And then it gets better.

关于我们前盟友的政治局势，完全出乎我们的意料。

The politics in connection with our former friends were totally unexpected to us.

真的吗？

Really?

你们占领人民。

You occupy people.

你们从不离开。

You never leave.

你们在他们的政府中射杀很多人。

You shoot a lot of people in their government.

你们扶植一个新的政府。

You put in a new government.

你们榨取他们大量的财富，强加一个无效的经济体系，然后奇怪他们为什么不喜欢你们。

You siphon off a lot of their wealth, and you impose a nonperforming economic system, and you wonder why they don't like you.

想想美国吧。

Think about The United States.

美国到处干预他国事务，投入数十亿美元的经济援助，即使撤走了，人们还是不喜欢我们。

Interview intervenes all around the world in other people's troubles, dumps billions in economic aid, and even leaves, and people don't like us.

我不明白俄罗斯人为什么觉得自己如此特殊。

I don't know why the Russians think they're so special.

另一个错误的假设。

Another false assumption.

戈尔巴乔夫认为，如果华沙条约组织——即东欧集团的军事联盟——消失，那么北约也会随之消失。

Gorbachev believed that if the Warsaw Pact disappeared, the military alliance of the Eastern Bloc, if that disappeared, then NATO would disappear.

而且如果他们的贸易组织——科莫康——消失，那么当时就是欧洲共同体。

And that if the Comic Con, which is their trading organization, if that goes away, then it's the European community in those days.

后来它演变成了欧洲联盟。

It becomes the European Union later.

总之，它会消失。

Anyway, that would disappear.

事实并非如此，因为强制性组织与自愿性组织的解散原因不同。

Not quite, because it turns out that organizations that are coercive versus those that are voluntary, they dissolve for different reasons.

戈尔巴乔夫还假设美国会秉持一种大陆性的观点，即不希望出现强大的势力，因此美国不会希望一个统一的德国，更不用说一个强大的统一德国了。

And then Gorbachev also assumed that The United States would share a continental outlook of not wanting strong powers, and that The United States therefore would not want a unified Germany, let alone a strong unified Germany.

所以当德国境内所有动荡发生时，戈尔巴乔夫却去度假了。

So when all the unrest is happening in Germany, Gorbachev is off taking a vacation.

糟糕的人生选择。

Poor life choice.

因为就在那时，美国总统老布什和德国总理科尔正在加速推动一个完全主权的统一德国的形成，两个部分都将加入北约。

Because at that moment, president George Bush senior and chancellor Cole of Germany are working on fast tracking German unification of a fully sovereign unified Germany, both halves in NATO.

好吧。

Alright.

因此，在这一切结束时，戈尔巴乔夫最亲近的支持者们都将责任归咎于他。

So many of, Gorbachev's closest supporters at the end of it all, blamed him.

他们说，看啊，他的外交政策失误源于其国内政策的失误，正是这些失误摧毁了苏联。

They said, look, his foreign policy mistakes were a function of his domestic policy mistakes, and it, destroyed the Soviet Union.

再回到这一点，美国问题专家弗拉基米尔·卢金说，戈尔巴乔夫不是邓小平。

And back to this, America expert Vladimir Lukin, Gorbachev was no Deng Xiaoping.

好吧。

Okay.

还有他们的首席美国问题专家阿尔巴托夫，他说我们领导人的愚蠢导致了苏联的解体。

And Arbatov, who's their premier, America expert, the stupidity of lee of our leaders caused the disintegration of the Soviet Union.

所以那个大傻瓜在玩塑料袋，把一个套在头上，自杀了。

So the big bozo was playing with plastic bags, stuck one on his head, committed suicide.

这是个意外。

It was by mistake.

好吧。

Alright.

卢坎继续说，在西方，他们喜欢戈尔巴乔夫，因为一切发生得如此轻松廉价，基本上就像那样，但只对你而言。

Lucan continued, in the West, they love Gorbachev because everything took place so easily and cheaply, basically like that, but only for you.

对我们来说，代价很昂贵。

For us, it was expensive.

但你可以说，重新评估所有斯大林主义的东西，早就该进行了。

But you could argue the time to reassess all the Stalinist stuff, was long overdue.

好吧。

Alright.

这里有一种完全不同的看待方式。

Here's a completely different way of looking at it.

我之前跟你讲的是积极的过错，现在我要讲的是消极的疏忽。

I've been giving you sins of commission, and now I'm gonna do sins of omission.

这是一个很好的框架。

It's a good framework.

它对其他事情也很有用。

It's useful for other things.

积极的过错就是戈尔巴乔夫所做的一切。

So the sins of commission are all the things Gorbachev did.

现在我要讲的是军队没有做的事情。

Now what I'm gonna do is what the army didn't do.

有些人会认为，红军本该像邓小平命令军队做的那样行事。

Some would argue that the Red Army should have done exactly what Deng Xiaoping ordered his army to do.

你只需派坦克去对付平民示威者，就能彻底镇压，事情就结束了。

You just send the send tanks against civilian demonstrators, and they will truly crush them, and it'll be over.

三十年后，共产党依然在中国掌权。

Communist party is still in power in China thirty years later.

所以有些人认为这是一个可怕的错误。

So there are some people who believe that this was a terrible mistake.

因此，这种观点认为，及时的坦克部署（TTD，这是我贡献的军事缩略语）本可以改变冷战的结局。

So this argument would be that timely tank deployments, TTD, my contribution to military acronyms, would have changed the outcome of the cold war.

好吧。

Alright.

另一些人则回到历史伟人的视角，从‘作为之罪’的角度来看，他们不会指责戈尔巴乔夫，而是他的继任者鲍里斯·叶利钦，我们主要看两个关键证据。

Others will be back to the great men of history and since of commission, and they wouldn't be picking on Gorbachev but his successor Boris Yeltsin, who and there are two big pieces of evidence we look.

他废除了苏联宪法第六条，该条款原本保证共产党始终垄断权力。

He removed article six from the Soviet constitution, which basically guaranteed that the communist party would always be the it would monopolize power.

此外，在此之后，叶利钦成为俄罗斯的领导人。

And then in addition, following years so Yeltsin's the head of Russia.

他与乌克兰和白俄罗斯的领导人会面，签署了《别洛韦日协议》，正式解散了苏联。

He gets together with the heads of Ukraine and Belarusia, and they signed the Belivezha Accords, which then formally dissolved the Soviet Union.

因此，按照这种观点，这是他的错。

So, according to this way of thinking, it's his fault.

这是故意的自杀行为。

It's suicide, on purpose.

它打开了一扇门，让多个政党以及苏联帝国内的各个民族获得独立。

And what it does is it opens the door for multiple parties and for the nationalities within the Soviet empire to become independent.

好吧。

Alright.

我已经给你提供了内部解释。

So I've given you internal explanations.

我还给你提供了外部解释。

I've given you external ex explanations.

现在我要给你一些总体性的解释，这些解释基于前面所有的证据，却得出了相反的结论。

Now I'm gonna give you some umbrella explanations, and they're based on all the preceding evidence, and they come to opposite conclusions.

第一种观点是：以上任何一种原因都行，这是不可避免的；而从相同证据得出的相反结论是：不，不，不。

The first one was, well, any of the above, it's inevitable, and the opposite conclusion from the same evidence is, no, no, no.

所有这些因素缺一不可。

It took all of them, all of the above.

西方勉强赢了。

The West barely won.

所以我要从‘以上任何一种’开始说起。

So I'm gonna start with, any of the above.

你可以认为，面对这么多严重问题，苏联的崩溃只是时间问题。

You could argue with this many serious problems, it was a matter of time before the Soviet Union collapsed.

而且，这个制度正因为西方不喜欢它的那些原因而令人反感。

And, it was an objectionable system for precisely the reasons the West didn't like it.

它拥有一个极其低效的经济体系，最终，连发明这个制度的俄罗斯人自己也不想要它。

It had a brutally inefficient economic system, and Russians who invented the thing at the end of the day didn't want it either.

因此，按照这种观点，像尤里·雷日科夫这样真正的火箭科学家会说：看，苏联解体的主要原因是其体制的腐朽。

So by this way of looking at it, you have people like Yuri Ryzhkov, a genuine rocket scientist, who says, look, the main reason for the collapse of the Soviet Union is the rottenness of its system.

而另一位记者季穆尔·施坦诺夫则说：我认为，从一开始，这种政治体制的基因中就蕴含了解体的种子。

And then here's a journalist, Tiemura Sztypanov, who said, look, I think from the beginning, the genes of disintegration were contained in the genetics of this governmental political formation.

你不觉得苏联教育体系的产物很有趣吗？

Don't you love the products of the Soviet educational system?

永远不要使用这样的措辞。

Don't ever use wording like that.

好吧。

Alright.

你可以争辩说，苏联有这么多问题，注定会失败。

So you could argue that the Soviet Union was destined to to fail with this many problems.

其他人则会得出相反的结论。

Others would come to the opposite conclusion.

他们会说，不。

They would say, no.

冷战以西方的方式结束，离不开每一个因素的作用。

It took every single one of them for the Cold War to end on Western terms.

让我们回到副外长阿纳托利·科瓦廖夫。

And here's back to Anatoly Kovalev, the deputy foreign minister.

他说，你看。

He said, look.

所有这些因素交织在一起。

All these factors merge.

内部的、意识形态的、经济的、军事的，全部都有。

Internal, ideological, economic, military, it's all of them.

你移除其中任何一个，结果就会不同。

You remove any one of them, and you get a different outcome.

冷战可能结束了，但可能会以完全不同的方式结束。

Maybe the Cold War ends, but it might end completely differently.

因此，按照这种推理，最好的结果只是勉强赢得。

So by this line of reasoning, the best were barely won.

我们应该非常庆幸它确实如此。

Should feel very fortunate that it did.

人们可以进一步提出最后一个观点，说情况不止如此。

One can take this last argument and say, it was more than that.

它还需要两位非常有才华的领导人——德国的赫尔穆特·科尔和美国的乔治·H·W·布什——的共同作用。

It also took the confluence and office of two very talented leaders, Helmut Kohl of Germany and George Bush senior of The United States.

不是那个卷入那些永久战争的儿子，而是那个没有卷入的父亲。

Not not the son who got in got into those forever wars, but the dad who didn't.

老乔治·布什拥有任何一位美国总统乃至任何一个人成为总统时最惊人的履历之一。

George Bush senior had one of the most amazing resumes of any president ever to, any any person to become president of The United States.

看看他本人。

Just look at him.

他年轻时就是二战中的战争英雄。

When he's really young, he's a a war hero in World War two.

他是一名海军飞行员。

He's a navy pilot.

这是件非常危险的事。

Dangerous thing to do.

他做到了。

He did it.

然后他回到美国，在耶鲁大学获得学士学位并以优异成绩毕业，之后在靠自己石油生意成为百万富翁后，当选为德克萨斯州该选区的国会议员。

And then he comes back and he gets his BA at Yale and graduates with honors, and then he becomes a representative for this district in in Texas after he's already made himself a millionaire by the oil business that he started.

然后他成为联合国大使，随后担任美国驻中华人民共和国代表。

And then he come becomes ambassador to the UN, followed by US representative to the PRC.

当时我们还没有正式的外交关系，因此他是开启这一进程的人，之后担任中央情报局局长，并作为副总统担任罗纳德·里根的副手长达八年。

It's before we had formal diplomatic relations, so he's the guy who's setting that off, becomes director of the CIA, and then he is Ronald Reagan's understudy for eight years as vice president.

他极其胜任这份工作，而赫尔穆特·科尔也同样胜任。

He is incredibly, fit for the job, and Helmut Kohl is equally fit for the job.

他是自其杰出的前任奥托·冯·俾斯麦以来，德国历史上任职时间最长的总理。

He is the longest serving chancellor in, German history since his illustrious predecessor, Otto von Bismarck.

他最初获得历史与政治学的博士学位。

He, starts out getting a Ph.

博士。

D.

在历史与政治学领域。

In history and political science.

他最初也从事商业，但后来先在州政府担任代表，接着担任州长，并成为其政党基督教民主联盟的主席长达二十五年。

He also starts out in business, but then he works for state government initially as a representative, then as a governor, and he becomes chairman of his political party, the Christian Democratic Union, for a quarter of a century.

一旦上台，他就决定通过一次接待一名游客的方式逐步收购东德。

Once he gets in, he decides he's gonna buy up East Germany one tourist at a time.

这怎么操作？

How does that work?

东德人其实非常喜欢旅行。

East Germans turned out really like to travel.

西德人一直能够前往东德，或者说长期以来都能前往东德，但东德人却几乎不可能轻易前往西德。

West Germans had always been able to travel to East Germany, or they long had been able to travel to East Germany, but East Germans definitely could not, easily travel to West Germany.

为什么？

Why?

因为他们一去就不回来了。

Because they have a habit of staying.

但突然间，东德放松了旅行管制，你可能会问为什么？

But all of a sudden, East Germany eases up on the travel regulations, and you might ask why?

答案是钱。

And the answer would be money.

就像波兰人一样，东德人也深陷自己造成的经济困境。

Just like the Poles, the East Germans were deep in an economic mess of their own making.

最终被赶下台的是坦克人埃里希·昂纳克。

Would be tank man, Eric Honecker, who got the boot at the very end.

他自1971年起维持权力的模式，本质上是靠借债度日。

Well, his staying in power paradigm that he implements in 1971 is gonna be easily gonna live off debt.

为了维持社会稳定、避免劳工动荡，他必须提供一定的社会福利和消费福利，而他的做法是不进行多少国内投资，而是大量举债，尤其是向西德借款。

He needs to make certain social benefits available and consumer benefits available for labor stability, not having labor unrest, and the way he's gonna do that is he's not gonna do many domestic investments, and he's gonna do a lot of borrowing, particularly from West Germany.

但从长远来看，这种做法是不可持续的。

Well, that's unsustainable long term.

因此，到冷战结束时，如果他想解决这个问题、平衡账目，东德的生活水平将不得不下降30%。

So by the time you get to the end of the Cold War, if he's gonna fix that and even out the accounts, it would be a 30% decline in East German standard of living.

所以他非常需要游客带来的零花钱。

So he really needs the pocket change from the tourists.

因此，科尔做起了游客生意，非常红火。

So what Cole does is a brisk business of tourists and things.

作为放宽旅行限制的回报，他支付给东德数亿德国马克，以促成此事，并说服匈牙利配合。

What he does in return for the easing of travel restrictions, he pays East Germany several 100,000,000, Deutsche marks extra to allow that to happen, and then he gets the Hungarians to go along.

他让匈牙利开放与奥地利的边境，让东德人通过那里出境，并为此给了他们五十亿德国马克作为小小回报。

He gets the Hungarians to open up their Austrian border to let East Germans out that way, and he gives them a half 1,000,000,000 Deutsche marks for that little favor.

然后，科尔推出了他的十点统一计划，因为他现在认为自己将实现两德统一。

And then I and Cole introduces his 10 unification program because now he's thinking he's gonna get both German together.

这时，他开始向经济崩溃的苏联大笔撒钱，而戈尔巴乔夫正急需这笔资金。

This is when he starts doling out big bucks to the Soviet Union whose economy is unraveling, and Gorbachev is going to be desperate for this cash as that's happening.

因此，西德向缺乏这些物资的苏联提供了价值一亿的食品，尤其是肉类。

So West Germany provides a 100,000,000 in food, especially in meat for the Soviet Union that doesn't have these things.

然而，动荡依然持续不断。

Nevertheless, these the unrest just keeps on going.

正如我所说，柏林墙被突破，随后出现了西德的临时政府，而俄罗斯自身的财政状况也在崩溃。

The Berlin Wall, as I've told you, is breached, and then you wind up with a West German caretaker government, and the financial situation in Russia itself is unraveling.

到1990年1月，布什和科尔会面，决定加速推进德国统一。

And by the time you get to January 1990, Bush and Cole get together, and they've decided they wanna really fast track German reunification.

为什么？

Why?

因为他们必须在这一崩溃危机导致戈尔巴乔夫下台之前完成此事。

Because they got to get it done before this unraveling crisis, that Gorbachev falls from power as a result of it.

所以他们两人正在玩一场游戏，这很复杂，原因如下。

So they are, have got a a game going, the two of them, It's complicated, and here's why.

戈尔巴乔夫坚决反对一个加入北约的统一德国。

Gorbachev was dead against a united Germany in NATO.

他根本不喜欢一个统一的德国，更不用说一个加入北约的统一德国了。

He's not keen about really a united Germany, let alone one in NATO.

美国国务院的专家们，那些什么都知道的人，都说不行。

The US State Department experts, the guys who know everything, are saying, no.

不行。

No.

不行。

No.

你希望在统一问题上慢一点。

You wanna go slow on this unification business.

然后，科尔正在领导一个联合政府。

And then, Cole is running a coalition government.

政府里有一些他无法解雇的人，因为他们来自不同的政党。

There are people in that government he cannot fire who are because they're from different, political parties.

其中一人是他的外交部长根舍，他对德国加入北约持高度怀疑态度；而事实上，尽管英国在冷战期间口头上支持和平，但它并不真正希望德国统一，法国也是如此。

One of them is his foreign minister, this guy Genscher, who is very skeptical about Germany being part of NATO, and then it turns out, although Britain had talked a good peace during the Cold War, it didn't actually want a unified Germany, nor did France.

为什么？

Why?

因为统一后的德国会在经济上超越它们。

Because that unified Germany would eclipse theirs economically.

它们不希望这种情况发生。

They didn't want that to happen.

因此，科尔和布什分工合作。

So, Cole and Bush divide up the tasks.

科尔将向苏联保证，德国不会具有侵略性或做出可怕的事情，而科尔则负责财政统一，因为苏联人考虑的是军事统一，即你部署军队的地方决定一切。

Cole is gonna reassure the Soviet Union that Germany is not gonna be belligerent or do horrible things, and Kohl's going to work on the financial unification because the Soviets are thinking in terms of military unification, where you deploy your troops, that determines things.

不对。

Uh-uh.

这是错误的国家权力工具。

Wrong instrument of national power.

正是因为苏联人不懂金融，他们才陷入如此混乱，而德国人却懂。

Precisely because the Soviets didn't understand finance, that's why they're in such a mess, whereas the Germans do.

他们将让东德采用西德的德国马克，到那时，他们将控制所有资金和决策。

What they're gonna do is get East Germany on the West German Deutsche Mark, and at that point, they will control all the money, and they will control decisions.

但俄罗斯人不会预料到这一点。

But the Russians aren't gonna see that coming.

与此同时，布什负责与西方特别是英国和法国维持联盟关系。

Meanwhile, Bush is supposed to work, the alliances with, particularly Britain and France in the West.

即将举行各种会议，而布什的任务是尽可能推迟这些会议，以便德国统一能尽可能顺利推进。

There are all sorts of meetings that were coming up, and Bush's job is to delay those meetings for as long as possible so German unification can proceed as far as possible.

他们两人与戈尔巴乔夫进行配合默契的外交，而戈尔巴乔夫根本无法应对，因为他的国内经济正以两位数的速率萎缩。

And the two of them are doing a tag team diplomacy with Gorbachev that he just can't keep up with with given that, his own home economy is got this double digit, shrinkage rates.

这就是他们的策略。

So here's how they go.

随着交易规模扩大，支付给戈尔巴乔夫的资金也越来越多。

As the trades get bigger, the amount of money you pay Gorbachev gets bigger.

首先，只是为了实现德国统一。

So first of all, it's just to get a unified Germany.

然后，是为了让西德继续留在北约内。

Then it's to get a unified Germany with West Germany still in NATO.

接着，是为了让整个德国都加入北约。

Then it's to get unified Germany with all of Germany in NATO.

这就是资金的流向。

So here's how the money goes.

戈尔巴乔夫同意德国统一。

Gorbachev agrees to German unification.

我们不再支付数亿德国马克。

We are no longer paying hundreds of millions of Deutsche Mark.

我们现在支付数十亿德国马克，这一笔就是50亿德国马克。

We're paying billions of Deutsche Mark, 5,000,000,000 Deutsche Mark for that one.

然后戈尔巴乔夫同意各国有权自行选择联盟，即是否加入北约。

Then Gorbachev agrees that states can choose their own alliances, I e, whether or not to join NATO.

接着，美国提出了九项保证，但这同时也是一项戈尔巴乔夫非常希望达成的贸易协议。

And then he gets The US offers nine assurance, but he it's also a trade agreement that Gorbachev really wants.

然后经济联盟正式生效。

And then the economic union goes into effect.

至此，我们已经完成了德国的财政统一，而此时伦敦发表了宣言，邀请东欧国家与北约更紧密地协调。

So we've now done the financial reunification of Germany, and this is when London there's a London declaration that's inviting Eastern European countries to coordinate more closely with NATO.

作为回报，戈尔巴乔夫得到了七国集团峰会的承诺，该峰会将加速对他的援助，而这一承诺确实兑现了。

And then in return, Gorbachev has got a promise of a g seven summit meeting that's gonna fast track aid to him, which it will do.

随后，戈尔巴乔夫同意德国加入北约，此时更大的变化正在发生。

And then Gorbachev agrees to German NATO membership, and at this point, big even bigger things are happening.

德国将同意其与波兰的边界。

Germany's gonna agree to its bow border with Poland.

我会到那里解释。

I'll get there and explain.

德国提供了150亿德国马克，包括为返回家园的苏联士兵建造各种新的公寓楼。

And Germany provides 15,000,000,000 in Deutsche Mark, including building all kinds of new apartment buildings for repatriated Soviet soldiers who are going home.

你们为什么要这么做？

Why are you doing that?

因为你们希望这些士兵专注于购买家具，而不是发动军事政变。

Because you want those soldiers focused on buying furniture, not running a military coup.

他们确实就是这样做的。

That's what they're doing.

因此，统一发生在1990年9月中旬，以下是波兰的边界。

So the unification happens in mid September nineteen ninety, And here's the Polish borders.

二战结束时，斯大林将波兰向西移动了200公里，到那时，波兰最终占据了德国三分之一的领土。

At the end of World War II, Stalin moved Poland 200 kilometers to the West, and it winds up taking a third of German territory by the time that's all over.

因此，德国人并不真正愿意放弃这一切。

And so the Germans don't really wanna sign all that away.

此外，作为这一安排的一部分，有1200万德国难民被驱逐出他们原本居住的地方，送回德国，其中两百万人死亡。

And in addition, as part of that, there were 12,000,000 German refugees who were thrown out of where they were living to send them back to Germany, of whom two million died.

因此，这是一个重大问题，并且仍活在人们的记忆中。

So this is a big deal, and it's in living memory.

德国同意这一安排，确认边界已定。

Germany agrees to this, that the borders are done.

德波边界已确定。

German Polish, borders are set.

一个复杂因素是，在这一统一条约签署前一个半月，萨达姆·侯赛因决定入侵科威特，因为他因长期与伊朗作战而陷入财政困境，欠下巨额债务，其中许多欠科威特，而他并不想偿还。

Complicating factor, a month and a half before this unification treaty is signed, Saddam Hussein decides he's gonna invade Kuwait because he's broke because he's had a long war with Iran, huge debts, many owed to Kuwait, which he doesn't wanna pay back.

所以，如果你入侵他们，就能解决这个问题。

So if you invade them, that solves that problem.

而且，他还将控制科威特极其丰富的油田，这将使伊拉克可能成为石油市场的关键生产国。

And also, he would take over Kuwait's very rich oil fields, and together that would make Iraq probably the swing producer of oil.

所以他觉得这是个好主意。

So he thinks that's a great idea.

但事实上，冷战已经结束，俄罗斯人非常愿意与美国合作。

Except, the Cold War's over, actually, and the Russians are more than willing to cooperate with The United States.

戈尔巴乔夫急需资金，他愿意支持伊拉克撤出科威特，但不支持推翻伊拉克政权。

Gorbachev really needs more money, and he is willing to go along with Iraq out of Kuwait, but not with regime change in Iraq.

因为要把伊拉克看作是苏联非常重要的债权国。

Because think about Iraq as a very important creditor state to the Soviet Union.

伊拉克欠苏联100亿到130亿美元。

It owed them between 10 and $13,000,000,000.

对一个穷困的债权国来说，这是一笔巨款。

That's a lot of money for a broke creditor.

但戈尔巴乔夫对老布什表现得异常合作。

But Gorbachev is being extraordinarily cooperative with Bush senior.

他多次派叶夫根尼·普里马科夫前往巴格达执行任务。

He sends Evgeny, Primakoff on multiple missions to Baghdad.

第一次，普里马科夫成功将所有俄罗斯人质从伊拉克救出。

The first one, Primakoff gets all Russian hostages out of Iraq.

第二次行程中，他把所有西方人，包括美国人，都带了出来。

And then on the second trip, he gets all Westerners out, Americans included.

第三次行程就不那么幸运了。

Third trip, not so lucky.

他当时在场，见证了联军的空袭。

He's there for the for the coalition forced bombing.

我想他并不太喜欢那样。

I don't think he liked that very much.

但想象一下，如果每次轰炸目标时都有西方人质作为人盾，那会是什么情景。

But imagine that bombing going on if there were Western human shields going down with every target.

俄罗斯把这张牌彻底拿掉了。

Russia took that card right off the table.

以下是其中的一些理由。

And here's some of the reasoning.

谢尔盖·塔拉森科是外交部长谢夫拉纳扎的助手，他们意识到美国将对伊拉克入侵科威特采取行动。

Sergei Tarasenko was an aide to Foreign Minister Shevranaza, and they understood that The United States was gonna do something about this invasion of of Kuwait.

因此，俄罗斯人认为，最好让这一切通过联合国进行，因为俄罗斯拥有否决权。

And so the Russians thought it'll be better if we force all of this to go through the UN where Russia has a veto power.

他说，你看。

And he said, look.

这是一种分工。

There was a division of roles.

这种俄罗斯提供的帮助也延伸到了中国。

It it extends to China, the help that Russia provided.

当美国人要求我们与中国合作时，我们告诉中国人：好好想想。

When the Americans asked us to work with the Chinese, we told the Chinese, think about it.

你们是拥有否决权的五大国之一。

You're one of the big five with veto player.

把所有事情都通过联合国处理，以便你们能行使否决权，这难道不符合你们的利益吗？

You it doesn't it suit suit your interest to funnel everything through the UN where you can put your foot down?

中国方面最终接受了这一想法。

And the Chinese came around to that idea.

然而，俄罗斯人设有红线，这里再次提到副外长阿纳托利·科瓦列夫。

However, the Russians had red lines, and here's Anatoly Kovalev again, the deputy foreign ministry.

红线是美军不得进入伊拉克。

The red line is American troops stay out of Iraq.

不得推翻伊拉克政权。

No regime change in Iraq.

如果你这么做，就会破坏停火协议的达成，而这正是目标所在。

You do that and you will tank termination of the coal coal war, and that would be the goal of the the the goal.

科瓦列夫说，我提出了一个基本原则：我们必须支持伊拉克的领土完整。

Here's Kolwalev saying, I advanced the basic principle that we must support the territorial integrity of Iraq.

这是我们神圣的立场，但我们绝不能允许伊拉克分裂。

This was our sacred position, but we, must not permit a division of Iraq.

所以，如果你想知道为什么地面战争在一百小时后就结束了，原因就在这里。

So if you wonder why the ground war ended after a hundred hours, this is it.

最重要的事情是结束冷战。

That the the the big thing out there is war termination of the Cold War.

这才是大事。

That's the big thing.

萨达姆·侯赛因只是那边的一个小事件。

Saddam Hussein is a minor event over there.

抱歉，但他确实只是个小事件。

Sorry, but he was.

无论如何，如果这阻碍了冷战的结束或破坏了德国的统一，法国和英国可能会非常高兴，因为法国总统弗朗索瓦·密特朗和英国首相玛格丽特·撒切尔都反对德国统一。

Anyway, so and if it had tanked Cold War termination or upset the reunification of Germany, France and Britain might have been very happy because Francois Mitterrand, who is the president of France, and Margaret Thatcher, prime minister of Britain, were against German unification.

他们知道这会削弱自己国家的地位。

They knew it would marginalize their own country.

德国将成为一个更大的经济体，事实确实如此。

Germany is gonna be a bigger economy, which it is.

弗朗索瓦·密特朗最终在将欧洲共同体扩大为欧洲联盟、吸纳所有东欧国家的过程中找到了慰藉，他在促成《马斯特里赫特条约》方面发挥了关键作用，该条约正式成立了欧洲联盟。

Francois Miederan eventually found solace in expanding the European Union European community to the European Union when you're incorporating all these Eastern Bloc countries into it, and he plays a really important role in concluding the Maastricht Treaty that that forms the European Union.

但玛格丽特·撒切尔彻底输了。

But Margaret Thatcher just plain lost.

她对整件事感到非常沮丧。

She was just upset about the whole thing.

她说，德国将成为欧洲的日本，而且比日本更糟。

She said, Germany will be the Japan of Europe and worse than Japan.

我想她最近没去过日本。

I guess she hadn't been to Japan lately.

她说，德国将在和平中获得希特勒在战争中未能得到的东西，她希望让苏联红军长期驻扎在德国。

She said, the Germans will get in peace what Hitler couldn't get in war, And she wanted to leave Red Army troops in Germany for the duration.

想象一下，如果真是那样，现在面对普京会怎样。

Imagine if that had been the case, and now dealing with Putin.

如果他有军队驻扎在德国，我们就麻烦了。

If he had troops in Germany, we would be in trouble.

但布什和科尔设法绕过了他们所有人。

But Bush and Cole worked around all of them.

布什最后对科尔说：看吧，我不会敲胸顿足、在柏林墙上跳舞。

And Bush said to Cole at the end of it, he said, look, I'm not gonna beat my chest and dance on the Berlin Wall.

他们两人始终非常谨慎，从未因苏联在冷战中的失败而羞辱戈尔巴乔夫。

Both of them were very careful never to humiliate Gorbachev about the Soviet loss of the Cold War.

为什么？

Why?

因为他们知道，如果那样做，戈尔巴乔夫可能会更快地失去权力。

Because they didn't want they knew that if they did that, he might fall from power sooner rather than later.

此外，他们担心如果那样做，强硬派会比实际更快地掌权。

Also, they were afraid that if they did that, the hardliners would come to power much more rapidly, than they actually did.

直到二十年后，普京才开始巩固他的权力，而东欧新独立国家也需要这二十年时间，才能在军事、政治和经济上融入西方，让这种融合稳固下来，再面对俄罗斯试图破坏它们的企图。

It was twenty years before Putin consolidate started consolidating his power, and the new country the newly independent countries of Eastern Europe needed those twenty years to integrate militarily, politically, economically with the West so that the the cement could, set before you got the Russians trying to destabilize them.

所以，他们为这些国家争取了二十年的时间。

So, they bought them twenty years to do this.

但这一切都是有代价的。

But there's a cost to all this.

布什从未因其在以西方方式结束冷战中的关键作用而获得应得的赞誉。

Bush never got credit for his essential role in ending the Cold War on Western terms.

因此，他未能连任第二个任期。

So he was not reelected for a second term.

但无论如何，当颁发诺贝尔奖、探讨冷战为何结束时，一位苏联外交官坦言：‘死亡是艰难的。’

But anyway, when it came time for Nobel Prizes and why the Cold War ended, on its holy admission, this Soviet Foreign Service officer said, look, it's difficult to die.

苏联才是结束冷战的那一个国家。

The Soviet Union was the one that ended the Cold War.

里根的顾问兼司法部长埃德温·米斯说：‘冷战的起因是苏联的政策，而它的结束在某种意义上也是因为苏联的政策’，诺贝尔奖委员会认同了这一观点。

And Edwin Meese, was a counselor to Reagan, also his attorney general, said, look, the Cold War began because of the Soviet policies, and it ended in a sense because of Soviet policies, and the Nobel Prize Committee agreed.

他们将奖项颁给了戈尔巴乔夫，而非布什，以表彰他在解放东欧中的作用。

They awarded the prize to Gorbachev, not to Bush, for his role in liberating Eastern Europe.

因此，当你思考‘俄罗斯为何输掉冷战’这个问题时，我希望你能得出一个比‘是里根干的’更复杂的答案。

So when you're thinking about this question of why Russia lost the Cold War, I hope you will come up with a more complicated answer than, well, Ronnie did it.

很可能还有其他因素在起作用。

That there are probably other causes at work as well.

总之，感谢您的关注。

Anyway, thank you for your attention.

今晚我就分享这些。

That's what I have for you this evening.

所以我一直在尝试为播客招聘一位作家，但没想到收到了远超预期的申请。

So I've been trying to hire a writer for the podcast, but I ended up getting way more applications than I anticipated.

但当我开始审阅这些申请时，发现很多申请看起来并不像是真实人类撰写和提交的。

But as I started to go through them, I noticed that many of them didn't feel like they were actually written and submitted by real human beings.

于是我开始寻找一种方法来检测机器人提交的申请，最终我使用了 Sardine。

So I started looking for a way to detect bot ed submissions, and I ended up using Sardine.

Sardine 原本是为银行和零售业评估客户风险而开发的，但它同样适用于发现虚假的求职申请。

Sardine was built to assess customer risk for banking and retail, but it's also useful for spotting fraudulent job apps.

它的实施过程荒谬地简单。

Implementation was hilariously straightforward.

我的总经理马克斯花不到一小时就轻松地将 Sardine 的 SDK 集成到了我们的招聘流程中。

It took my general manager Max less than an hour to vibe code Sardine's SDK into our hiring flow.

现在，Sardine 会根据大量不同的规则和信号，为每一份申请分配一个风险评分。

Now Sardine is assigning every single application we get a risk score based on a ton of different rules and signals.

候选人是否使用了一次性邮箱？

Did the candidate use a throwaway email?

他们所使用的设备是否已与另一份申请相关联？

Is the device they're on already associated with another application?

候选人的 IP 地址是否与其声称的国家一致？

Is the candidate's IP address matching the country that they said they're from?

类似的问题还有很多。

The list goes on.

我目前只是使用一个简单的网页表单，但你可以将 Sardine 集成到任何应用程序中。

I'm just using a basic web form, but you can integrate Sardine into any application.

所以，如果你在招聘或其他类型的欺诈防范方面需要风险评估帮助，请访问 sardine.aivoorcash，并询问你的招聘系统是否使用了 Sardine。

So if you need help with risk, whether that's for hiring or any other type of fraud prevention, go to sardine.aivoorcash and ask your ATS if they're using Sardine.

好了。

Alright.

回到莎拉。

Back to Sarah.

莎拉，非常感谢你参与这些。

Sarah, thank you so much for doing these.

谢谢你们邀请我。

Thank you for having me.

那才是更重要的事情。

That would be the more important thing.

有一个有趣的问题是，为什么苏联会在那时解体。

There's an interesting question of why the Soviet Union collapsed when it did.

我认为，更有趣的问题是，一个如此高度计划、极度低效、残酷的殖民帝国，为何能在这个世纪持续存在这么久。

I think, the even more interesting question is why a system that was so centrally planned, monstrously inefficient, brutal, a colonial land empire, how such a country could survive for so long into the twentieth century.

所以我觉得，真正需要解释的是这一点。

So I I feel like that's the thing that actually needs explanation.

这个政权是如何维持了七十四年的？

How did this regime last for seventy four years?

但地球上有很多地方长期以来一直功能失调，你会想，为什么它们会功能失调呢？

But there are loads of dysfunctional places all over the planet that have been dysfunctional forever, and you look, well, why are they dysfunctional?

而在我看来，这个问题的答案之一就是朝鲜的例子。

And, you look at to me, the answer to that one, in a way, is the example of North Korea.

你想想，所有国家中，本该崩溃的应该是这样一个在二十一世纪仍持续发生饥荒的地方，而它曾经是朝鲜半岛最富裕的地区。

You go, of all countries that should fall, a place that has ongoing famines in the twenty first century, and it used to be the richest part of the Korean Peninsula.

因此，这些威权政权非常擅长维持其强制力量。

So, these authoritarian regimes are really good at, maintaining the coercive powers.

现在想想看。

Now think about it.

作为父母，要培养一个孩子并让他们接受教育，需要花费数年时间，也许他们最终会成为顶尖政治家。

In order to educate someone, it takes years as a parent to bring up a little person, and then you get them educated, and maybe they're an A list politician.

但暗杀他们却只需几秒钟。

It takes seconds to assassinate them.

这就是建设与破坏之间的不对称性。

It's the asymmetry between construction and destruction.

破坏如此容易，以至于这些家伙的独裁政权遍布全球。

Destruction is so easy that these guys are dictators tend to be dictatorships are all over the world.

这是人类处境中令人悲伤的一部分。

It's sad part of the human condition.

他们显然知道自己在做什么。

They clearly know what they're up to.

在苏联的情况下，存在多个情报机构。

In the case of the Soviet Union, there were multiple intelligence organizations.

斯大林正是用这些机构来监控每个人。

That's what Stalin was using to keep track on everyone.

所以，你想垄断信息，以便比别人掌握更多信息。

So, you wanna monopolize information so that you know of more information than other people.

然后他们有一大群人是赢家。

And then they have a whole bunch of people who are the winners.

所谓的干部阶层就是那里的精英。

The nomenclature are the elites there.

你确保把他们都打点好。

You make sure you pay all them off.

我的意思是，想一想。

And, I mean, think about it.

人类社会中有奴隶、农奴，说到底，我们人类彼此这样对待已经很久了。

Human societies, slaves, serfs, mean, we humans have been doing these things to each other for a long time.

所以独裁政权确实可以长期维持下去。

So dictatorships can certainly sustain themselves for a long time.

但苏联的特殊之处在于，到了六七十年代，它的国民生产总值已经达到美国的60%，而这是一个极具活力的经济体。

But the Soviet Union was special in that by the sixties and seventies, they have a GNP that's 60% of America as this incredibly dynamic economy.

在四五十年代，他们的增长率要高得多，以至于像保罗·萨缪尔森这样的著名经济学家都预言，根据当时的情况，到九十年代，苏联的经济规模将超过美国。

In the forties and fifties, they have much higher growth rates, so much so that prominent economists like Paul Samuelson are saying that by the nineties, based on what they're seeing at the time, The Soviet Union will have a bigger economy than America.

他们的增长率如此之高，这真是令人惊讶。

And this is just quite surprising that they would have such high growth rates.

如果你想想中央计划是如何运作的，人们会告诉你能生产多少钢铁，哪家公司能使用棉布、水泥等等。

If you just think about how central planning works, people are gonna tell you how much steel you can make and which company gets to use the cotton fabric and cement and etcetera.

而且有数亿人生活在这种制度下，几十年来，他们在二战后竟然还能保持显著的经济增长，这确实令人震惊。

And you have hundreds of millions of people living under this system, and it has the it's just actually quite shocking that they actually had notable growth rates after World War two for decades on end.

首先，这本质上是一个战时经济。

Well, first of all, it's a war economy, essentially.

你把所有资金都投入到庞大的军队中，而俄罗斯人将伟大定义为军事力量和领土。

You're putting all your money, so you have a big military, and Russians define greatness.

这是成为大国的一部分，即军事力量与领土。

This is part of it, of being a big power, and it's military power with territory.

而且，大多数国家在战时都会为军事动员起来。

So, and most countries in wartime have, they mobilized for the military.

对吧？

Right?

这个国家在二战期间就是这样做的。

This country did it in World War two.

各种配给制度。

All kinds of rationing.

对吧？

Right?

我们没有使用市场价格。

We're not using market prices.

你设定不同的价格，给人们配给券之类的东西。

You're setting different prices, giving people ration cards and things.

苏联的问题在于，他们一直保留着这套体系。

The thing is about the Soviets is they kept it forever.

他们从未废除它。

They never got rid of it.

所以，这是其中一点。

So that's one piece.

苏联的另一个问题是所有的数据。

Another problem with the Soviet Union are all of the data.

我不知道你看到过什么数据，但我知道我看到的数据，很难判断，因为卢布是不可兑换货币，而且他们很多东西都用重量来衡量，比如他们说他们是世界上最大的电视生产国。

So I don't know what data you've seen, and I know the data I've seen, is it's hard to know because because ruble's a nonconvertible currency, and a lot of things they measure in weight and other things, like, they're the greatest TV producer in the world, they said.

为什么？

Why?

因为他们生产了世界上最大的电视机。

Because they evade the heaviest TVs in the world.

对吧？

Right?

我是认真的。

I'm serious.

当我在那里时，情况就是这样，电视机还会自燃，这可不是电视该做的事，会把公寓楼烧掉。

When I was there, this was it, and they would spontaneously combust, which is not the normal thing a TV should do for you, burn down the apartment building.

所以他们会把重型电视机的数量算作正面指标，而卢布是不可兑换货币。

So so they're gonna measure their heavy TVs as a positive, and the ruble is nonconvertible.

有一位名叫默里·费什巴赫的人，我不记得他具体在美國政府的哪个部门，但他非常擅长分析他们的统计数据并加以调整。

So there was a guy named Murray Feshbach, and I can't remember which part of the US government he was, but he was really good at looking at their statistics and then adjusting them.

但人们并不知道，我给你看了中情局的数据，那些人可不傻。

But people didn't know, and I gave you the CIA ones where the CIA, they're not stupid people.

他们找到了所能获得的最佳数据，并得出结论，苏联预算中可能有20%用于军事。

They've got the best data they could find, and they're coming up with 20% of the Soviet budget is probably devoted to military.

冷战结束后，他们才意识到：‘哎呀，糟糕了。’

Then after the Cold War is over, they're going, whoops.

我们之前漏掉了，实际至少是两倍，甚至可能是三倍。

We miss it's at least double that and maybe triple.

所以，即使你手头有这些统计数据，也很难准确掌握真相。

So it's really hard to know even with the statistics you're getting.

当然，保罗·萨缪尔森的说法也不会准确。

Certainly, Paul Samuelson had wouldn't be accurate.

嗯。

Mhmm.

这只是一个猜测。

It's just a guess.

我最喜欢的例子是：当时有自上而下的指令，要求必须生产一定数量的钢材，于是钢铁厂就会有动力生产更厚的钢条而不是薄的，因为这样能算作更高的产量。

My favorite example of this is so there were top down commands that you gotta produce a certain amount of steel, and a steel factory would then be incentivized to make thicker bars of steel rather than thinner bars because that would count towards greater production.

但很多投入实际上确实需要薄板。

Except a lot of inputs actually do require the thinner sheets.

所以其他工厂不得不把钢条变薄，但这个过程也会计入GDP。

So then the other factories have to thin down the steel, but that also counts towards GDP.

因此，生产低效的钢条然后再切割到合适尺寸，会被双重计入GDP。

So producing the inefficient steel and then cutting it down to size is both being double counted towards GDP.

还有整个过程中的巨大浪费。

Oh, and just the whole waste of it.

就像那些笨重的电视机。

You're like the heavy TVs.

它们制造所需的投入可能是实际需要的四倍，而这些材料本可用于其他用途。

They probably have four times the inputs that they need to make them that would be good for other things.

是啊。

Yeah.

这种观念认为，你真的可以计划一个经济体。

It's this notion that you can actually plan an economy.

价格是个奇迹。

Prices are a miracle.

这是老亚当·斯密的那只看不见的手。

It's good old Adam Smith, the magic hand.

对吧？

Right?

或者说是看不见的手。

Or the invisible hand.

那就是它的名字。

That was what it was.

价格是市场中最好的方式。

That prices are the way to go in markets.

这更有效率。

It's it's more efficient.

我想，二十世纪早期和中期的经济可能比今天简单得多。

I wonder if one thing that's going on is in the early and mid twentieth century, you have economies which are much simpler, least compared to today.

所以即使在那时，显然命令与控制模式不如资本主义有效。

So even then, obviously, command and control is less workable than capitalism.

但如果你只发展重工业，你就需要一定量的水泥、钢铁、混凝土、纺织品和煤炭。

But if you just have heavy industry, you need a certain amount of cement, steel, concrete, fabrics, coal.

这比必须命令企业使用哪些SaaS工具要容易得多。

That's much more workable than, like, we gotta essentially command what SaaS tools your enterprise is allowed to use.

哦，没错。

Oh, yeah.

关于发展这件事，挺有意思的。

Well, it's interesting on the development thing.

共产党一直强调重工业。

So the communists have insisted on heavy industry.

这才是他们想要的。

That's the thing that they want.

别管消费品了。

Forget about the consumer goods.

如果你看看真正取得成功的国家，比如日本和明治维新时期，它们大力发展的是轻工业和消费品。

If you look at the countries that really have made it, like Japan, and the Meiji restoration, they're doing a lot of light industry and consumer goods.

嗯。

Mhmm.

然后它们才转向重工业，但那时人们已经骑上自行车，纺织品和其他产业也已经运转起来。

And then they move into heavy, but they've already got people on bicycles, and they got textiles and other things up and running.

这一点同样适用于台湾和韩国。

And that would also apply to Taiwan and Korea.

它们确实也发展了重工业，但这并不是起步计划。

And they and they do by all means, they do get heavy industry, but that's not the starter program.

起步计划是提高基本生活水平。

The starter program is basic standard of living.

事实证明，虽然我不懂经济学，但只要你看看哪些国家富裕、哪些不富裕，这似乎对我来说是更可行的路径。

And it turns out and I don't know economists, but it turns out, if you just look at who's rich and who's not, that that seems to me the more workable thing.

是的。

Yeah.

还有一个事实是，中央集权体制是按照三十年代的计划来建设的。

There's also the fact that the centralized regime is building things according to the thirties plan.

即使在战后重建时期，他们仍然沿用三十年代那些要求发展重工业的过时计划。

And even after post war of Reconstruction, they're still calling back on these plans from the thirties that call for heavy industry for a bygone era.

而在七十年代、八十年代，我们经历了制造业的锈带衰落。

And in the seventies, eighties, we have our rust belt collapse of manufacturing.

人们对此抱怨说，看看吧，美国的制造业基础已经空心化了，但与其像苏联那样整个经济都变成锈带，不如让一些产业被淘汰，从而使整个经济更具活力并向前发展。

And people complain about this as, look, The US has this hollowed out manufacturing base, but it's much better to have industries which are left behind so that the whole economy as a whole can be more dynamic and move on than the Soviet Union where the entire thing became a rust belt.

对吧？

Right?

因为他们无法向前转型。

Because they couldn't move on.

这比那更有趣。

It's more exciting than that.

我不是经济学家，但据我所知，他们错过了塑料革命。

And, I'm not an economist, but apparently, they missed the plastics revolution.

嗯。

Mhmm.

我的意思是，想想我们自己的法律。

Where I mean, think about our own laws.

现在我们发现塑料太多了。

Now we're finding we have too many plastics.

但塑料是一种了不起的材料，他们只是忽略了这一点。

But it's plastic's an incredible material, and they're just missing that.

我记得在俄罗斯时，想弄清楚哪里能买到酸奶油，结果被俄罗斯人笑话，因为我太笨了，连超市里都找不到。

I remember in Russia trying to figure out where to get sour cream and was being laughed at by Russians because I was so stupid in the store that I couldn't find it.

而我们现在有小塑料盒装的酸奶油。

Well, we have little plastic tubs with the sour cream.

在八十年代末我待在那里时，你得自己带玻璃罐子，拿到柜台前，让店员用一把脏兮兮的勺子给你装满。

Back in the late eighties, when I was there, you had to bring your glass jar with you so you could hand it over the counter so someone could take a filthy ladle and fill up your jar.

我的意思是，这正是没有塑料的后果。

I mean, this is part of not having plastic.

然后他们完全错过了计算机革命，这正解释了为什么里根能在军备竞赛中胜出——因为我们把芯片这些东西装进了弹道导弹，而他们做不到。

And then they totally missed the computer revolution, and that is this plays into Ronald Reagan winning the military race is we're putting these chips and things into our ballistic missiles, and they can't do that.

这是一个问题。

And that's a problem.

说到塑料，我在准备这场讲座之前并没有意识到石油所起的决定性作用，哦，确实如此。

Speaking of plastics, I didn't realize before preparing for this lecture the overwhelming role that oil played Oh, yeah.

它不仅解释了为什么苏联能够长期维持，也解释了它为何最终崩溃。

In first explaining why the Soviet Union was able to sustain itself for so long and then why it collapsed.

因此，到五十年代末，苏联的经济增长率已经开始下滑，尤其是与美国经历的战后繁荣相比。

So, by the late fifties, Soviet growth rates are already starting to go down, especially compared to the postwar boom that America's experiencing.

1959年，他们在西伯利亚发现了巨大的油田。

In '59, they discovered these massive oil fields in Siberia.

从1973年到1985年，我认为苏联80%的硬通货收入都来自石油，他们用这些收入来进口大量物资，因为中央计划连粮食都生产不出来，更不用说先进技术了。

And then from '73 to '85, I think, 80% of Soviet Union's, hard currency earnings are just from oil, and they use this because, central planning can't produce even grain, let alone advanced technology.

他们用这些收入进口物资，以维持红军、供养民众，并补贴东欧国家。

They use this to import a bunch of stuff to sustain the Red Army, to sustain the population, and to subsidize Eastern Europe.

然后，当然，1985年油价崩盘了。

And then, of course, prices collapsed in 1985.

你认为，如果上世纪五十年代末没有发现西伯利亚的石油储量，苏联会不会提前三十年就崩溃了？

Do you think that if the the Siberian reserves aren't found in the late fifties, that it's possible that the Soviet Union would have collapsed thirty years prior?

我不知道，但他们不可能开展所有非洲项目和其他计划。

I don't know, but they would have had they wouldn't have been able to do all the Africa program and things.

那实在太贵了。

It just would be too expensive.

所以，肯定是一个缩水的版本。

So, certainly, it would've been a reduced thing.

而且，他们还发现了天然气资源。

What it's also it it is also the gas reserves they got up.

这是在苏联中北部地区。

It's for, like, North Central Soviet Union.

我不记得具体地名了，但这些天然气被输送到欧洲，因为那里是更好的市场。

I can't remember the places, but this is the gas that gets used to get pumped to Europe because that's the better place.

他们进行了这些大规模投资，而这些投资需要很长时间才能收回成本。

And they make those big investments, and it takes a while for them to pay off.

这是一件大事，因为他们需要西方石油公司或任何负责天然气管道、压缩机等设备的公司提供帮助。

And that was a big deal because they needed help from Western oil companies or whatever, whoever does the gas pipelines, compressors, whatever it is you need.

关于是否应该出售这些资源，当时引发了很大的争议。

And there was a big to do about that, about whether we should sell the stuff or whether we shouldn't sell the stuff.

欧洲人希望出售。

Europeans wanted to sell.

我们则试图阻止出售。

We were trying not to.

这同样发生在里根执政时期。

This is going under Reagan as well.

但无论如何，他们已经建成了大量设施，这些设施对他们的财政收入至关重要。

But anyway, they had built a lot of it, and it was essential to their pocket change.

但当他们赚到大量收入后，却从未储蓄任何一部分。

But then, when they got all the pocket change, they never saved any of it.

他们只要一有石油财富，就花到极致。

They just whatever the oil wealth was, they spent up to the max.

这听起来是不是很熟悉？

Doesn't it sound familiar?

嗯。

Mhmm.

对吧？

Right?

政府一有钱，就花掉。

Governments, you have money, you spend it.

别管什么困难时期了。

Forget about rainy days.

嗯。

Mhmm.

苏联解体后，有一段时间普京还在进行某种程度的自由选举，所以如果你看看俄罗斯经济为何复苏、普京为何在2000年2月至2008年期间如此受欢迎，你会发现油价从每桶10美元涨到了140美元。

So after the Soviet Union classes, there was a period when Putin was still winning somewhat free elections between and then so if you look at the, why Russia's economy recovers and why Putin is so popular in the February from 2000 to 2008, oil goes from $10 a barrel to a $140 a barrel.

这就引出了你的观点：我们常常把长期的宏观趋势归功于或归咎于政治领导人。

And so this goes to your point about we we give credit or blame to political leaders for often what are just long run macro trends.

我之前没提到的是，当苏联解体时，苏联的生活水平——准确说是俄罗斯的生活水平——急剧崩溃，接下来二十年一片混乱。

Well, what I didn't cover is when the Soviet Union collapses, Soviet living standards, just Russian living standards implode, and it's a mess for twenty years.

这简直难以置信地艰难。

It is just unbelievably difficult.

还有苏联管理中另一个‘高明’的做法：为了维持对帝国的控制，他们不是把所有部件集中在一个地方生产，而是把飞机零件分散在帝国各地生产。

Oh, and another piece of the brilliant Soviet management, in order to maintain control over the empire, instead of building things all in a place, you'd build some plane parts here, some plane parts there, some plane parts all over the empire.

所以当帝国瓦解时，太棒了。

So when the empire goes, great.

我手里只有半架飞机，那其他零件该去哪儿找呢？

I've got a quarter of a plane, and then, you know, where do I get the other parts?

所有这些都彻底崩溃了。

So all of that fell apart.

所以当普京突然有了大量资金，并开始把这些钱花在民众身上时——毕竟最初资金充裕——俄罗斯的生活水平确实提高了。

So when Putin suddenly has a lot of money, and then he starts spending it on people because initially there's plenty of money, Russian standard of livings do go up.

所以，当然他们喜欢他，并把这一切都归功于他。

And so, of course, they like him, and they give it give him credit for all of that.

但这种情况终会过去。

But then that runs its course.

对吧？

Right?

然后情况变差了，而他更热衷于——反正他的心态就是这样。

And then it's less good, and then he's more excited about well, it's his mindset anyway.

当你有了更多钱，你就想重建帝国。

When you get more money, you wanna get the empire back.

嗯。

Mhmm.

俄罗斯人也喜欢这一点。

And then Russians also like that.

嗯。

Mhmm.

对吧？

Right?

说到帝国，你知道，俄罗斯经济在苏联解体后经历了一段糟糕的时期。

Speaking of the empire, you know, the the Russian's economy just has this terrible period after the collapse of the Soviet Union.

许多东欧卫星国似乎以惊人的速度恢复了。

A lot of the Eastern European satellites seem to recover in this gangbusters way.

显然，东德是这样，甚至今天的波兰也是一个巨大的成功故事。

Obviously, East Germany, but even Poland today is such a a big success story.

那么，俄罗斯本土到底出了什么问题，导致这些其他国家能更成功地从共产主义中恢复？

What's what's going wrong with the mainland itself that these other countries are able to recover from communism much more?

它们一直与西欧联系更紧密。

They've been always much more connected to Western Europe.

战前的捷克斯洛伐克是一个完全发达的国家，完全与西方相连。

Czechoslovakia before the war is a full up, highly developed country, absolutely tied to the West.

我认为哥白尼来自波兰这样的地方。

Poland, I believe Copernicus is from a place like Poland.

对吧？

Right?

它是启蒙运动的中心。

It's a center of the enlightenment.

但当我查阅老布什总统的档案时，发现非常有趣。

But when I was using the George Bush senior archives, it's fascinating.

那是1988年、1989年，苏联正在崩溃，当时东欧国家，尤其是波兰领导人频繁给布什政府写信，说：‘我们的银行系统一团糟。’

So, it's 'eighty eight, 'eighty nine when the Soviet Union's imploding, and then there's a lot of correspondence between Eastern Europe, particularly Polish leaders coming to the Bush administration saying, hey, our banking system, we know it's a mess.

我们的金融体系一团糟。

Our financial system's a mess.

我们知道需要专家帮助我们规划未来的法律体系，而布什对此非常积极。

We know we need expertise to help us figure out what our legal system is gonna look like, and Bush is all over that.

我确信他把这些问题转交给了私营部门，那些人也会积极提供免费咨询。

And I'm sure he farmed them out to the private sector who would also be all over that, like giving them free consulting.

因此，结果就是他们确实充分利用了这二十年。

And so, as a result, you do have them really taking advantage of this twenty years.

与此同时，布什本想提供一些相同的建议，当时像杰弗里·萨克斯这样的人也去了苏联，但情况完全不一样。

At the same time, when Bush would have loved to have given some of the same advice, and there were people like Jeffrey Sachs and others who went to the Soviet Union, but it was not remotely the same thing.

这是波兰整个社会都在主动寻求这些建议，而不是仅仅有个家伙在莫斯科的办公室里指点江山。

This is people throughout Polish society requesting this advice, not like one guy with an office in Moscow.

而俄罗斯人基本上觉得自己无所不知，认为自己什么都懂。

And basically, the Russians thought they knew it all, and they thought they understood.

这全是那些你根本不知道自己不知道的东西，你的盲点。

This is all the unknown unknowns, the things you don't understand, your blind spots.

事实上，经济学对苏联人来说是个巨大的盲点。

Truly, economics is a blind spot for the Soviets.

因为你想一想。

Because think about it.

当沙皇统治时期，就像蒙古帝国一样，通过征收过境贸易的税款来获利，同时也靠销售基本商品。

When the czars ran the show, it's like a riff off the Mongol Empire of you take cuts from people's businesses of trade that comes through, and then it's also about selling basic commodities.

在沙皇时代的俄罗斯，人们根本不会想到要搞高端制造业。

It's not you're not thinking of under the czars Russia doing high end manufacturers.

我的意思是，大概费伯奇和一些珠宝，你可能会想做那个。

I mean, I guess Faberge and some jewelry, you wanna do that.

但其实那并不是重点。

But really, that's not it.

因此，俄罗斯并没有像西欧那样与商业传统和所有海上贸易航线紧密相连。

And so it doesn't have this commercial being tied into of this commercial tradition of Western Europe and all the sea routes for trade.

所以当共产主义者掌权时，他们根本就不是搞这一套的。

And so then when you get the communists, they aren't about that at all.

因此，知识上真的存在严重匮乏。

So there's really a dearth of knowledge.

或者想想在这个国家，到处都是小孩子卖柠檬水的情景。

Or think about, in this country with all the little kids selling lemonade.

对吧？

Right?

你能在街上看到他们。

You see them on the streets.

他们已经在学习了，比如送报纸的孩子们，早就开始了解买东西和卖东西，而我们却把这些知识视为理所当然。

They're already learn or the kids who are doing newspaper routes, they're already learning about buying things, selling things at a very and we just take this knowledge for granted.

在苏联，这种知识是缺失的，或者曾经是缺失的。

It's just absent or was absent in this in the Soviet Union.

嗯。

Mhmm.

在东欧，由于联系更紧密，这种缺失就没那么严重。

And not as much absent in Eastern Europe that had been more connected in.

好的。

Okay.

所以在我们谈到苏联解体之前，让我先回到苏联末期。

So I I should ask, before we get to the period of Russian collapse, let's go back to the end of the Soviet period.

戈尔巴乔夫开始推行这些经济改革，同时还有开放政策和重组政策。

Gorbachev starts instituting these economic reforms along with, Glasnost and Perestroika.

但让我感到困惑的是，这些经济改革不仅没能阻止苏联面临的停滞，反而使情况变得更糟。

But what I find mysterious is those economic reforms not only fail to prevent the stagnation that the Soviet Union is experiencing, but they, in fact, make things worse.

所以，你可能会认为，即使改革处理得不好，也该产生某种积极影响，如果做得不好，那也只是积极影响小一点。

So it, you would think that the reform, even if it's handled badly, would have some sort of positive impact, and if you do it badly, then it'll have a smaller positive impact.

但在这里，它却引发了严重的通货膨胀，造成了诸多大问题。

But here, it just, causes this huge hyperinflation, causes all these big problems.

那么，为什么改革没有产生这种反向影响呢？

So why didn't reform have this backwards impact?

嗯，那里有太多东西需要改革了。

Well, a, there's so much that needs reforming there.

但部分原因我认为是因为他想进行政治改革，那是他所理解的东西。

And but part of it, I think, because he wanted to do political reforms, that's what he understands.

作为一个人，那是他非常熟悉的事情。

As a human being, that would be the thing that he's very familiar with.

想一想。

Think about it.

他是共产党高级成员，在代际更替时成为那个人。

He's like an a list member of the Communist Party to be the guy when they do generational change.