对，就在这里，等待：欧洲民粹主义的崛起

《经济学人》

The Economist.

你好，欢迎收听《经济学人》的每日要闻。

Hello, and welcome to the intelligence from The Economist.

我是主持人杰森·帕尔默。

I'm your host, Jason Palmer.

每个工作日，我们都会为您带来影响世界大事的新鲜视角。

Every weekday, we provide fresh perspective on the events shaping your world.

稍后，我们的讣告编辑将回顾弗兰克·盖里——这位或许是全球最具创新精神的建筑师的职业生涯。

Later, our obituary's editor will look back on the career of Frank Gehry, perhaps the world's most innovative architect.

但首先

But first.

如今趋势已十分明显。

The pattern is by now clear.

欧洲中间派正节节败退，尤其是败给右翼民粹主义政党。

Europe's centrists are losing ground, in particular, to parties of the populist right.

英国改革党、德国选择党、法国国民联盟，今年都取得了丰收。

Reform UK, Alternative for Germany, France's national rally, all are having a bumper year.

我们如同乘着碧蓝浪潮前行的船只，正越来越接近赢得下届大选的目标。

We are all ships rising on a turquoise tide headed ever closer towards winning the next general election.

我们为边境安全与法律秩序而战。

We fight for secure borders and law and order.

昨天我们讨论了美国的新国家安全战略，该战略特别承诺要帮助这些民粹右翼政党，使欧洲摆脱其所谓的'文明消亡'。

Yesterday, we talked about America's new national security strategy, which pledges specifically to help those populist right parties to help Europe escape what it calls civilizational erasure.

而欧洲的中间派则声称这些政党带来了真正的生存危机。

The continent's centrists, in turn, claim those parties present actual existential risks.

英国首相基尔·斯塔默告诉我们，如果改革党赢得下届选举，我们所熟知的英国将不复存在。

Britain's prime minister, Keir Starmer, told us that Britain as we know it would cease to exist if reform were to win the next election.

德国总理弗里德里希·梅尔茨表示，他的执政时期是中间派的最后机会。

In Germany, chancellor Friedrich Maertz has said that his time in office is the last chance for the center.

在去年遭遇挫败的选举后，法国总理埃马纽埃尔·马克龙警告说内战正在酝酿。

After bruising elections last year, Francis prime minister Emmanuel Macron warned of brewing civil war.

到处都是戏剧性的景象。

It's dramatic visions all around.

为了梳理这一切，今天我邀请了来自三个国家的三位同事加入讨论。

And to pick through it all, I'm joined by three colleagues from three countries today.

来自德国的是我们柏林分社的负责人汤姆·纳托尔。

From Germany, our Berlin bureau chief, Tom Nuttall.

你好，杰森。

Hi, Jason.

来自法国，我们的巴黎分社社长索菲·佩特。

From France, Sophie Petter, our Paris bureau chief.

嗨，杰森。

Hi, Jason.

在伦敦，我们的英国政治记者马修·霍尔豪斯。

And in London, our Britain political correspondent, Matthew Holhouse.

你好。

Hello.

非常感谢大家的参与。

Thanks very much for joining us, everyone.

请简要概述一下你们各自所在地区民粹主义右翼的现状。

Just give us a broad outline, if you would, of how the the populist right is doing on your respective patches.

德国选择党在二月份的联邦议院选举中创下历史最佳成绩，获得了约21%的选票。

The alternative for Germany had its best ever election result in the February election to the Bundestag, got about 21%.

目前它在民调中与执政的基民盟不相上下，支持率约26%，这是该党有史以来的最高水平。

It's now roughly neck and neck with the governing Christian Democrats on around 26% in the polls, by far its biggest ever score.

在法国，国民联盟——这个由马琳·勒庞和乔丹·巴德拉领导的民粹主义右翼政党——首次濒临掌权边缘，这对法国来说是个重要时刻。

Well, I think in France, for the first time in the national rally, that's the populist right party run by both Marine Le Pen and Jordan Bardella, is on the cusp of possibly taking power, and that is a big moment for France.

这让很多人感到忧虑，但也让另一些人欢欣鼓舞。

It worries a lot of people, but it also delights others.

我们即将在2027年迎来总统大选。

And we have a presidential election coming up in 2027.

目前乔丹·巴德拉是最有希望胜选的人选，这对一个上世纪70年代成立时还是极端反犹的边缘运动、如今却成为法国最受欢迎政党的组织而言，堪称惊人逆转。

Jordan Bardetto is the favorite to win it at the moment, and that is quite a remarkable turnaround for a party that, you know, in the 1970s was founded and became an extremist anti Semitic pariah movement, and it's now the most popular party in France.

马修，回到英国的情况，这边有什么动态？

And Matthew, coming back to Britain, what's going on here?

这是一个政党从边缘走向中心舞台的类似故事。

It's a pretty similar story of a party moving from the fringes to the center stage.

我们这里看到的是改革英国党，它是奈杰尔·法拉奇的最新政治载体，之前他曾领导英国独立党和脱欧运动。

So here we've got Reform UK, which is the latest vehicle of Nigel Farage, formerly of UKIP, formerly of the Brexit campaign.

他仅用两年时间就让该党从个位数支持率崛起。

He's taken it really in the space of two years from being on single digit polling.

根据我们的民调追踪，现在它已成为英国最受欢迎的政党，支持率达29%。

Now Britain's most popular party, it's on 29% according to our poll tracker.

我们认为如果明天举行选举，改革英国党有五分之三的概率会与保守党残余势力联合赢得下议院多数执政席位。

We think if there was an election tomorrow, Reform UK would have a three in five chance of winning a governing majority in the commons in concert with a rump conservative party.

现在很容易想象，至少从意识形态角度来看，这三个不同的民粹主义政党正在发生非常相似的情况。

Now it is very easy to imagine that very similar things are going on at least from an ideology point of view across all of these three different populist parties.

这并不完全准确，但让我们先从确实存在的相似之处开始分析。

That's not entirely true, but let's start with where the similarities actually do lie.

索菲，你认为是什么将这三场运动联系在一起？

Sophie, what do you think draws these three movements together?

我认为最根本的是反移民政策，这种政策往往与一种排外视角交织在一起——即对欧洲或相关国家（无论是法国、英国还是德国）应该成为或现在是什么样子的看法。

Well, I think the most fundamental thing is an anti immigration policy, and this is sort of infused with a xenophobic vision of what Europe or the country concerned, whether it's France, The UK, or Germany ought to be or is.

还有其他因素。

There are other things as well.

通常还伴随着对环境主义的怀疑态度。

There's often a skepticism about environmentalism.

常常试图将民众（带引号的）所遭受的苦难归咎于精英阶层。

There's often trying to blame the elites for things that the people, in quote marks, are suffering from.

而且我认为，至少在法国，还存在一种类似MAGA（让法国再次伟大）的法国优先情绪。

And there's also, I think, it's a MAGA like in France, at least France first feeling.

我们已经受够了被布鲁塞尔或其他机构指手画脚，现在是时候把国家利益放在首位了。

We've had enough of being bossed about by Brussels or by other institutions and it's time to put the country first.

你可以在英国改革党的理念中看到许多与欧洲其他民粹主义右翼政党的相似之处。

You can see a lot of parallels in the ideas of reforming UK with those of other parties of the European populist right.

这实际上对改革党来说有点矛盾，因为奈杰尔·法拉奇在很多方面可以说是英国脱欧的教父。

That's a bit of a paradox actually of reform because in many ways Nigel Farage is the godfather of Brexit.

他是真正让欧洲怀疑主义成为英国一级政治议题的人物之一。

He's one of the people who really made Eurosceptism a tier one political issue in The UK.

然而他的政治学徒期其实是在欧洲议会度过的，在那里他与法国、荷兰等地的激进右翼政治家族成员共事多年。

And yet he really owes his political apprenticeship to being a member of the European Parliament, where he spent a lot of time with people in his sort of political family on the radical right in France and The Netherlands and elsewhere.

他最核心的政治主张始终是移民问题，他认为英国接收的移民数量过多。

His calling cards really are above all immigration, which he argues has been too high to The UK.

改革党推行大规模驱逐政策（他们自己的表述），同时质疑精英阶层和全球化。

The reform have a policy of mass deportations, as they would put it, combined with a scepticism of elites, scepticism of globalization.

他们对外国援助持强烈反对态度，从根本上认为英国的伟大、军事实力以及宪法体系都遭到了破坏，需要恢复。

They're very hostile to foreign aid and fundamentally sort of believe that Britain's greatness, Britain's sort of military prowess, Britain's constitution have all been subverted and they need restoring.

所以这本质上是一种复兴主义的政治议程。

So it's very much a sort of restorationist agenda.

我完全同意这些观点，有趣的是我最近接触的一些德国选择党议员，他们中很多人也是从欧洲议会开启政治生涯的，其中不少人对英国脱欧前与奈杰尔·法拉奇共事的经历记忆犹新。

I agree with all of that and it's funny I've been speaking to some AFD MPs here, many of whom also began their career in the European Parliament, and many of them have very fond memories of working with Nigel Farage back in the pre Brexit days.

他们告诉我，他们期待与他作为英国首相合作。

And they've told me that they look forward to working with him as British prime minister.

显然，德国选择党在移民、欧盟、MAGA等问题上持有许多相似观点。

So the AFD obviously shares a lot of these views on immigration, on vocry, on the EU, on MAGA.

我想指出一个重要区别：虽然改革党和国民联盟在接近权力时都开始在某些政策和人事上●●●

There is an important difference I would point out, which is that while both reform and the national rally, as they have approached power, have begun to moderate in certain respects in terms of both policies and personnel.

而德国选择党，如果有什么区别的话，你看到的是相反的情况。

With the AFD, if anything, you're seeing the opposite happening.

该党实际上正变得更加激进。

The party's actually growing more radical.

其与极右翼极端组织（如民族主义身份认同运动）的联系正日益加强。

Its links to far right extremist groups, such as the ethno nationalist identitarian movement, are growing ever stronger.

这也是今年早些时候国内情报机构将其正式定性为右翼极端主义案例的原因之一，这使得他们能够对该党实施更严密的监督。

This is one reason why earlier this year, the domestic intelligence agency declared it a formal case of right wing extremism, which enables them to put the party under a greater degree of supervision.

因此我认为即便在许多政策议题上他们与英法所见高度一致，但在风格和方式上存在重要差异。

So that I think is an important difference in style and approach even if on a lot of the policy topics, they're very much in line with what we see in Britain and France.

汤姆，德国那些更中间派、更传统的政党如何应对这种转变？

And Tom, how are the more centrist, the more traditional parties of Germany dealing with that shift?

德国一个有趣的特点是，它是欧洲少数仍保留所谓'防火墙'（其他国家称为防疫线）来抵制极右翼的国家之一。

Well, one of the interesting things about Germany is it's one of the few countries remaining in Europe where you have what they call here a firewall, and other countries are cordon sanitaire against the far right.

实际上这意味着，没有任何主流政党会在州或联邦层面与德国选择党联合执政，完全排除了这种可能性。

And what that means in practice is that no mainstream party will work with the AFD in government, either at state or federal levels, completely ruled out.

这是个颇具争议的观点。

And this is a controversial view.

许多德国人认为这种政策的风险在于，最终会形成软弱中间派的无限联盟——由于最受欢迎的主流政党保守党被迫与社会民主党、绿党等结盟，导致改革停滞。

Many Germans think that one of the risks of a policy like this is that you end up getting endless coalitions of the kind of mushy center that can't reform because the conservatives, the most popular mainstream party, are forced into coalitions with Social Democrats or Greens or whoever, and nothing ever happens.

而打破这种僵局的唯一方法，就是拆除防火墙，让保守党与德国选择党组成联合政府。

And the only way that something would happen would be to tear down that firewall and get a government of the conservatives with the AFT.

这种观点同样遭到很多人反对，这正是当前德国相关讨论的核心矛盾所在。

That is a view that a lot of people also disagree with, and that's kind of where the rubber hits the road with this discussion in Germany at the moment.

索菲，你刚才提到国民联盟希望成为被排斥的政党。

And Sophie, you mentioned that the national rally wants a pariah party.

当今法国政坛的态势如何？

What are the dynamics of of it in the political sphere now in today's France?

听汤姆描述德国的情况很有意思，我认为法国主流政党面临的困境比德国更甚，传统中右翼政党共和党已被国民联盟和民粹右翼彻底击垮。

It's quite interesting listening to Tom describing Germany because I think that the dilemma that mainstream parties face there, France has moved even further than that in the sense that the traditional center right party now known as the Republicans has been crushed by the national rally, by the populist right.

它已经变成一个非常非常小的政党。

It is a much, much smaller party.

现在只有大约49名议员。

There are only about 49 MPs.

国民联盟则有123席。

National rally has a 123.

现在的问题已不是共和党是否会决定与其结盟并打破汤姆所说的防火墙。

And the question now isn't whether the Republicans will decide to join up with them and break down what Tom called the firewall.

关键在于作为最大反对党的民粹右翼是否会吸纳该阵营所有其他势力。

It's about whether or not it's the populist right that is now the biggest opposition party that would absorb all others in that space.

这实际上已经彻底终结了围绕他们形成某种联盟的可能性。

And that is something that has, in effect, put an end to any sense of there being a kind of around them.

并非没有尝试通过战术性投票来在选举中阻击他们，尤其是法国的两轮选举制度为此提供了可能。

It's not that there aren't still attempts to get tactical voting to take place and to block them at elections, especially France's two round elections, which enables you to do that.

但这确实意味着法国的这条界限已经完全模糊。

But it does mean that line is completely blurred in France.

英国的情况非常有趣，因为其战略正在发生某种转向。

So Britain is very interesting because of the way there's a bit of a pivot in strategy taking place.

迄今为止，我们在改革方面根本没有形成任何传统。

Hitherto, we've not really had a tradition at all of a with regards to reform.

与其说看到的是改革党（或法拉杰前政党）与其他政治体系之间的防火墙，不如说是整个政治体系——他的政敌们试图在政策上压倒他。

What you saw more than a firewall between reform or Faraj's former party and the rest of the political system was actually the political system, his political rivals trying to outbid him.

这就是英国脱欧期间著名的现象。

That's famously what happened with Brexit.

过去四个月里，基尔·斯塔默采取了新策略：不再试图不断加码超越奈杰尔·法拉奇，或只是对他的选民说'我能比他更有效地实现你们的需求'，而是转向左翼，试图动员进步派意见形成某种反法拉奇的大联盟。

We have seen a new strategy from Kyr Stalmer in the past four months whereby instead of trying to continually outbid Nigel Farage or just say to his voters, I can deliver what you want really more effectively than he can, turn instead to the left and try and mobilize progressive opinion in a sort of a grand coalition against Nigel Farage.

他一直在强调法拉奇所代表的文明威胁——称其会撕裂我们的文化、身份认同、英国特质、在欧洲的地位以及国家安全。

And he's really been talking up the civilizational sort of threat as he sees it that Farage poses, saying he would tear apart our culture, he'd tear apart our identity, what it means to be British, our place in Europe, our national security.

我们都需要团结在像克里斯·阿默斯特这样的温和派周围来阻止这一切。

We all need to rally around someone moderate like Kirst Amherst to stop it.

这是一种战略转变。

There's a change in strategy.

这有点令人头晕目眩，既体现在工党近期自我定位的短期策略上，也反映在主流政客过去十五年来对奈杰尔·法拉奇的总体态度转变中。

It's kind of head spinning, both in terms of the short term way in which Labour's been positioning itself, but also just in the broader way in which mainstream politicians have been thinking about Nigel Farage for the past fifteen years.

索菲提到的关于共和党被国民联盟基本摧毁的论述，我认为在德国正被当作一种警示故事。

What Sophie was saying about the kind of destruction, basically, of the Republicans by the Rassemblon Nationale, I think is serving in Germany as a kind of cautionary tale.

欧洲还有其他类似案例。

There are other European examples as well.

以德国基民盟保守派总理弗雷德里克·梅尔茨为例，他在与德国选择党保持防火墙政策上态度非常强硬。

To Fredrik Maerts, the CDU conservator chancellor here, who is very, very tough on maintaining this firewall with the AFD.

他表示，每当德国选择党向基民盟伸出橄榄枝时，实际上那是一只试图摧毁我们的铁拳。

He says, whenever there's an outstretched hand from the AFD towards the CDU, this is actually an iron fist that will seek to destroy us.

这不是我们在德国确保右翼多数席位的正确方式。

This is not a way of us securing a right wing majority in Germany.

这是激进右翼摧毁中间派右翼的手段。

This is a way for the radical right to destroy the center right.

我认为他之所以这么说，是因为他目睹了类似情况在包括法国在内的其他几个欧洲国家发生。

And I think the reason that he says that is because he has seen comparable things happen in several other European countries, including France.

但问题在于这类结构性政治壁垒的实际效果——试图将德国选择党或改革党孤立在外、保持距离的做法并未奏效。

But I guess the question is the degree to which those kinds of structural barriers, political structural barriers actually have an effect trying to keep the AFD or the reform party held at arm's length isolated on some island isn't working.

他们正在扩大影响力和权力。

They're gaining ground, gaining power.

中间派政党和其他政治体系并未正视这些政党支持的许多议题，而是简单地将他们划为不可接触的异类。

Centrist parties, the rest of the political systems are not taking many of the issues those parties are backing on their face and instead just saying, these guys are beyond the pale.

从最直观的角度看，这在德国并未奏效——他们在民调中支持率持续攀升。

It's not working in Germany in the straightforward sense that they continue to climb in the poles.

从另一个角度看也未奏效——这种做法反而助长了他们的激进化。

It's also not working in the sense that it encourages their radicalization.

由于没有可行的掌权途径，激进分子便占据了上风。

They have no viable path to power, and therefore, the radicals gain the upper hand.

另一方面，这也阻止了他们掌权。

On the other hand, it also keeps them from power.

如果他们进入州政府或联邦政府，可能会造成巨大破坏。

They could do a lot of damage if they were in government at state level or at federal level.

主流政党面临的真正困境是，如果开始向德国选择党（AFD）开放，将引发强烈反弹，失去数百万选民——尤其是在西德，甚至可能导致党内分裂。

And the real dilemma confronting the mainstream parties is that if you start to open up to the AFD, you will inspire a huge backlash, you will lose millions of your voters, particularly in West Germany, and in some cases, it could even split your party.

这就是为什么对保守派而言，特别是对你来说，当前面临一个极其棘手的两难局面，结果如何尚不明朗。

And that's why for the conservatives to see you in particular, this is a really, really rough dilemma right now, and it's not clear how it's gonna shake out.

是的。

Yeah.

我认为英国保守党面临截然不同的局面，改革英国党正夺走他们大量选票，构成了真正意义上的生存威胁。

I think you see a very, very different dynamic with the Conservative Party in The UK who face, you know, a really pretty existential threat from Reform UK because it is taking so many of their votes.

保守党内有许多人强烈反对与改革英国党达成选举协议。

There are people in the Conservative Party who would really strongly oppose a deal, an electoral pact with Reform UK.

其中就包括凯米·巴德诺克。

Amongst them, Kemi Badenov.

但这种反对意见本质上是以党派为中心的立场。

But that opposition is really couched in sort of party centric terms.

他们会说：'我加入的是保守党。'

So they say, I joined the Conservative Party.

'我们不做政治交易。'

We're not in the business of doing deals.

'我们只为赢得胜利。'

We're in the business of winning.

诸如此类的说辞。

That sort of language.

如今保守党内很少有人会说：'我不支持与改革英国党合作是因为他们不道德。'

Very few people in the Conservative Party now would say, I don't think we should do a deal with Reform UK because I think they're immoral.

因为十五年来遏制极右翼的努力反而让保守党变得更极右翼化。

Because the legacy of fifteen years of trying to contain forage has made the Conservative Party more forage ist.

所以他信奉的许多主张已成为该党核心意识形态，无论是脱欧、退出《欧洲人权公约》的承诺，还是文化战争和觉醒主义的立场。

So a lot of the things that he has believed have become their core ideology, whether that is Brexit, whether that is their commitment now to leave the European Convention on Human Rights, their views on culture wars and woke.

因此，出于这个原因，任何与改革派达成协议的意识形态反对意见——如果这符合保守党的利益，因为他们正面临一场真正的选举末日——都比十年前或更早时要淡薄得多。

And so for that reason, any sort of ideological objection to doing a deal with reform, were it to be in the Conservative Party's interests as they face a real electoral armageddon, is much paler than it would have been a decade or more ago.

我认为马修刚刚为保守党成员描述的困境与法国的共和党人非常相似。

I think some of the dilemmas that Matthew's just described for Conservative Party members are very similar to the Republicans in France.

我的意思是，你和一些议员交谈，他们绝不会碰任何与国民联盟有关的事情。

I mean, you talk to some MPs and they wouldn't touch anything to do with the national rally.

其他人，我想，可能会私下说选举后一切都有可能。

Others, I think, might privately say that after an election, everything is on the table.

但我想补充的一点是针对汤姆的评论，即如果你把这些政党视为不可接触的而选票仍然上升，那么在法国的问题会是，如果你把这些政党视为更值得尊重的，选票也会上升。

But the point I wanted to add is in response to Tom's comments about how if you treat these parties of beyond the pale and the vote still goes up, well, the problem in France would say if you treat these parties as more respectable, the vote also goes up.

所以你处于一个几乎无法从中获胜的局面。

So you're in a situation where, you know, you almost can't win from this.

对于中间派来说，这确实非常困难。

For the centrist, it's really very difficult.

想到另一个民粹主义右翼运动显然风头正劲的地方——特朗普的美国，MAGA人物也插手了许多欧洲政治事务。

And in thinking of another place where a populist right movement is certainly riding high Trump's America, MAGA figures have also stuck their nose into lots of of European politics.

在你们国家，你认为MAGA运动在多大程度上正在站稳脚跟、分享建议并提供经验教训？

How much in in your countries do you think the MAGA movement is getting a foothold, is sharing advice, is providing lessons?

嗯，在国家安全战略中看到这样一句话很有意思，大意是说'爱国政党日益增长的影响力让人感到非常乐观'。

Well, it was very interesting to see in the national security strategy, there was this line suggesting that, quote, the growing influence of patriotic parties gives cause for great optimism.

显然，法国的国民联盟就是属于这一类的政党之一。

Clearly, the national rally in France is one of the parties that falls into that category.

话虽如此，去年11月我们去采访乔丹·巴尔德拉时发现一个有趣的现象。

Having said that, it was interesting when we went to interview Jordan Bardello in November.

我试图引导他谈论唐纳德·特朗普，以及是否将其视为榜样。

I tried to draw him on Donald Trump and on whether he considered him a role model.

他的态度相当谨慎。

And he was quite cautious.

他并没有承认这一点。

He did not say that he did.

我认为他可能是考虑到特朗普在法国并不受欢迎这一事实。

He was, I think, probably responding to the fact that Donald Trump is not popular in France.

他在欧洲并不受欢迎，但在法国甚至比在英国更不受欢迎。

He's not popular in Europe, but he's even less popular in France than he is in Britain.

因此，在一个具有非常独立思想传统的国家里，情况相当复杂。这个国家并不将自己视为美国的某种前哨站，而且长期以来都是如此。我认为这意味着每当有人暗示他可能会援引特朗普或MAGA运动时，他都必须非常谨慎。

And therefore, it is quite complicated in a country with a very independent minded tradition, which doesn't see itself as a sort of outpost of The US and hasn't for a long time, I think means that he has to tread very carefully whenever there is a suggestion that he might invoke Donald Trump or Magamore generally.

显然，华盛顿方面有兴趣并希望国民联盟表现出色，但我认为国民联盟本身在效仿特朗普方面会更加谨慎，至少不会公开这么做。

So there's clearly an interest and a desire in Washington to see the national rally do well, but I think the national rally itself is going to be a little bit more careful about modeling itself on Trump, at least explicitly.

对我们来说，他试图在这件事上两面讨好。

For us, tries to have it both ways on this.

一方面，正如索菲所说，他非常清楚唐纳德·特朗普在英国公众中不受欢迎，因此他稍微收敛了一些。

On the one hand, much as Sophie says, he is quite conscious that Donald Trump is unpopular with the British public at large, and he he has dialed it down a little bit.

然而，法拉杰在过去十年左右的时间里一直在极力渲染他与特朗普运动的联系。

However, you know, Faraj has spent the past decade or so really playing up his links with the Trump movement.

他长期以来都在夸大自己作为潜在对话者的角色。

He has long sort of inflated his role as a potential interlocutor.

你见过法拉杰的竞选风格，他的集会、演讲确实融合了他三十多年来一直在做的事情——在市政厅、乡村酒吧演讲，即兴发挥（这是他非常擅长的），但最近又融入了许多特朗普竞选活动的灵感。

And you've seen Farage's campaigning style, his rallies, his speeches really are a bit of a fusion of something that he's been doing for thirty years or more, which is talking to town halls, talking to to pubs and villages, you know, really speaking without notes, which Farage is very fluent at, but recently has been really infused with a lot of inspiration from the Trump campaign trail.

所以，你知道，现在多了很多喧闹的音乐。

So, you know, there's a lot more loud music.

还有灯光效果。

There's lights.

举办大型体育场集会，他会用气枪向人群发射T恤。

There's big stadium arena rallies, he will fire t shirts into the crowd from an air gun.

他从特朗普那里汲取了大量灵感。

He draws a lot of inspiration from Trump.

是的。

Yeah.

德国选择党把这些元素发挥到了极致。

So the AFD has dialed this stuff up to 10.

他们将美国新政府对所谓爱国政党的友好态度视为重大利好。

They see the arrival of an administration in America that is friendly to so called patriotic parties as a huge Philip.

我认为德国选择党非常关注与美国政府合作的重点之一，就是增强支持以应对他们真实的担忧——这种担忧并非空穴来风——即可能真的会出现禁止该党的运动。

And one of the things that I think the AFT is very focused on with the American administration is bolstering support against the genuine concern that they have and not ungrounded concern that there could be a genuine movement to impose a ban on the party.

相当数量的议员认为这应该发生。

This is something that a reasonably large number of MPs think should happen.

德国宪法中有相关条款规定。

There are provisions for it in the German constitution.

如果真发生这种情况，我认为可以相当肯定地说，德国选择党（AFD）将能依靠美国政府的强力支持来对抗这一禁令。

Were it to happen, then I think it's a fairly safe bet that the AFD could rely on strong support from the American administration against this.

所以现在你会看到德国选择党的高层人物和议员定期组团前往华盛顿，与国会人士或政府成员会面。

So you've now got regular delegations of AFD senior figures, MPs going over to Washington to meet figures in congress or members of the administration.

最后一点是关于俄罗斯和乌克兰的，德国选择党强烈反对德国和欧洲对乌克兰的支持。

And a final point, Russia, Ukraine, AFD's strong opponent of German European support for Ukraine.

你会听到一些言论，简直像是直接从克里姆林宫写出来的。

Some figures you hear messages that may have been just as well written in the Kremlin.

他们会说华盛顿现在有个亲和平的政府，而欧洲不站在特朗普一边阻碍和平进程是可耻的。

What they will say is that we have a pro peace administration in Washington, and that it's a scandal that Europe is standing in the way of peace by not siding with Trump.

那么随着2025年接近尾声，我想听听各位对2026年可能发生之事的看法。

So as 2025 winds up then, I'd like a view from each of you about what you think is going to happen in 2026.

2026年将举行威尔士议会、苏格兰议会以及英格兰大部分地区的地方政府选举。

So in 2026, you have elections to the Welsh parliament, to the Scottish parliament, and to local government across much of England.

这些选举在政治舞台上至关重要。

Those elections are important in tourist space.

首先，它们可以作为改革派当前受欢迎程度的风向标。

Number one, just as a barometer of how popular reform is right now.

其次，如果改革派表现良好，问题在于那些仍忠于保守党的人是否会认为改革派是右翼阵营中更强大、更可行的选择，进而转投支持。

But secondly, if reform do well, the question is, do people who are still loyal to the Conservative Party conclude that reform is a stronger, more viable party of the right, that the Conservative Party is a lost horse, and therefore switch their support.

若这种情况发生，我们将见证英国政治格局百年未有的重塑。

If that happens, then you're looking at a remaking of the British political landscape of the sort that hasn't happened for a century.

2026年，德国16个联邦州中有5个将举行选举。

In 2026, five of Germany's 16 states will hold elections.

这是重要的选举年，每一场选举都将受到密切关注。

It's a big election year, and each one of them will be scrutinized carefully.

其中两场选举尤为关键。

The two of them really matter.

而这是德国东部的两个州。

And these are two states in Germany's East.

在这两个州，目前的民调显示，德国选择党（AFD）赢得绝对多数并非不可能。

And in both of them, current polling would suggest that it is not impossible that the AFD could win an outright majority.

当然，如果这种情况发生，所谓的防火墙和防疫隔离带都将不复存在，因为它们会被彻底摧毁。

And of course, if that were to happen, you can forget about Firewalls and Courdons Sanitaire because they would have burnt it down.

他们将能够独立执政。

They will be able to govern on their own.

我关注的另一点是，德国乃至整个欧洲的非正常移民数量在过去一年左右大幅下降。

And one other thing that I'll be watching is the irregular migration numbers in Germany and in Europe in general have fallen substantially in the last year or so.

这是否意味着德国选择党需要调整其宣传重点？

Does that mean that the AFD will need to pivot its message?

明年，移民议题的共鸣度是否会比过去有所减弱？

Will the migration message feel somewhat less resonant next year than it has done in the past?

如果是这样，他们又会想谈论什么话题呢？

And if so, what will they want to talk about?

看，在法国，中间派大体上有十八个月的时间来整顿局面，找到一种能与选民进行有意义、鼓舞人心的对话方式，并克服内部个人竞争，推举出一位能击败民粹右翼的候选人。

Look, in France, the center ground has broadly got eighteen months to get its act together, find a way to talk to voters that is meaningful, that is inspirational, and get over their internal personal rivalries to find a candidate that can beat the populist right.

因为如果他们无法在2026年做到这一点，我们将会面临次年总统大选时民粹右翼可能掌权的局面，这在现阶段并非不可能。

Because if they can't do it in 2026, we are looking at a situation the following year when there's a presidential election and cannot be excluded at this point that the populist right will take power.

所以这是一个重大挑战，存在许多变数，但这就是中间派必须完成的任务。

So that is a big challenge, a lot of ifs in there, but that is what the center ground has to do.

索菲、汤姆和马修，非常感谢你们今天抽空参与。

Sophie and Tom and Matthew, thank you all very much for your time today.

谢谢，杰森。

Thanks, Jason.

谢谢，杰森。

Thanks, Jason.

干杯。

Cheers.

谢谢。

Thank you.

我认为可以公允地说，这一切正是欧洲计划核心政治斗争的灵魂所在，正如它同样反映了美国实验灵魂的争夺战。

I think it's fair to say that all that is the central political fight for the soul of the European project in much the same way as it reflects the tussle for the soul of the American experiment.

请允许我提醒大家关注上周的《内幕》节目——我们为订阅用户新推出的视频栏目。

Let me draw your attention to last week's edition of the insider, our new video show for subscribers.

我们的资深编辑们探讨了中间派政治是否注定失败，特别聚焦英国并包含对首相基尔·斯塔默的专访。

Our senior editors considered whether centrist politics is doomed, focusing in particular on Britain and including an interview with prime minister Keir Starmer.

请在应用或官网上观看完整内容。

Find it in our app or on our website.

弗兰克·盖里的建筑几乎不可能被认错。

There wasn't much mistaking a Frank Gehry building.

安妮·罗是《经济学人》的讣闻版编辑。

Anne Rowe is The Economist's obituaries editor.

你会突然看到银色光芒从屋顶倾泻而下，或注意到某栋建筑像被揉皱的纸袋，或是整群建筑仿佛相互坍塌在一起，又或是另一栋建筑如蛇般沿河岸蜿蜒伸展。

You would suddenly see a blaze of silvery light coming over the rooftops, or you'd notice a building that looked like a punched paper bag or a whole group of buildings that seemed to have fallen down on each other, or another one that writhed along a riverbank like a snake.

这些创作并非出自某个天才建筑系学生，而是来自一位热爱制作奇特造型、戴着眼镜的知命之年男子，他总在探索这些造型能否转化为震撼人心的巨型建筑。

These creations hadn't come from some whiz kid architecture student, but a bespectacled man in late middle age who loved making odd shapes and forms and seeing if they could be translated into huge exciting buildings.

如果你去过他的办公室，就会明显看出他喜欢任何偶然的并置组合。

If you went to his office, it was clear that he liked any sort of chance juxtaposition.

所以他喜欢纸张被揉皱后形成的各种形状。

So he loved the shapes that paper made when he crumpled it up.

但这些最非凡的建筑究竟从何而来？

But where had these most extraordinary buildings come from?

比如西班牙毕尔巴鄂的古根海姆博物馆，沿河而建的一整片钛金属屋顶群。

The Guggenheim Museum in Bilbao in Spain, for example, a whole cluster of titanium roofs along the river.

或是洛杉矶的华特迪士尼音乐厅，实际上就是邦克山上的一道不锈钢瀑布。

Or the Walt Disney Concert Hall in Los Angeles, which was a waterfall really of stainless steel on Bunker Hill.

各种最不可思议的杰作。

All sorts of most extraordinary things.

有时连他自己也会感到惊讶。

And they surprised him sometimes too.

当他第一次看到毕尔巴鄂的古根海姆博物馆时，还以为这是个灾难。

When he first saw the Guggenheim in Bilbao, he thought it was a disaster.

他其实并没有完全意识到自己做了什么。

He really hadn't quite clocked what he had done.

直到后来他才发现，与河流相映成趣，倒像是一幅不错的拼贴画。

And it was only when he saw later that it made rather a nice collage, if you like, with the river.

如果你换个角度看，它还会呈现出另一种有趣的形态。

And it did another interesting thing if you looked at it from another angle.

他逐渐探索后最终发现，这或许确实相当不错。

He gradually explored it and found in the end that it was perhaps rather good.

他并不介意为此邀功。

He didn't mind taking credit for it.

但总的来说，他是个不喜欢居功自傲的人。

But generally he was a man who didn't like to take too much credit.

他对自己的先驱和前人了然于心。

He was so aware of his precursors and antecedents.

他喜欢用纸笔工作。

He liked to work with paper and pencil.

他在这方面很老派。

He was old fashioned that way.

但他的工作因一个非常聪明的应用程序而改变，这个程序可以将他的草图数字化传输到屏幕上，并能放大到巨大尺寸。

But his task was transformed by the fact that a very clever application was invented, which allowed transfer his sketches digitally to the screen, which could be scaled up to huge size.

这相当了不起。

It was quite extraordinary.

而在他看来唯一的缺点是，它会立即告诉他想要建造的东西是否可行。

And the only thing wrong with it from his point of view is that it would immediately tell him whether what he wanted to build was possible or not.

他很难接受事物存在任何限制。

And he found it very hard to recognise there were any limits to what could be done.

在多伦多的童年时光里，家境贫寒的他经常在厨房地板上玩祖母从市场带回的边角木块。

In his childhood in Toronto, quite a poor childhood, he'd played a lot on the floor of the kitchen with offcuts wooden blocks that his grandmother had brought back from the market.

他和祖母用这些木块搭建了最奇幻的城市，从不认为木块有什么做不到的。

And he'd made the most fantastical cities with her, not recognizing any limits to what wood blocks could do.

他还在五金店帮忙时，发现那里就像一个充满无限魔力的物品洞穴。

He'd also helped out in a hardware store and found an infinite magic cave of objects there.

工具、螺丝、钉子、钟表、烤面包机——任何能被拆解并以充满魔法般创意方式重组的东西。

Tools, screws, nails, clocks, toasters, anything that could be taken apart and reassembled in a rather magical and inventive way.

不过最令人兴奋的可能是他祖母带回来做鱼丸的活鲤鱼，她会把鱼放在浴缸里养一天，而他则会被这条鱼完全迷住，观察它游动转身的姿态，这种影响后来体现在他的许多建筑作品中。

Perhaps most exciting though was the live carp that his grandmother would bring back to make Gefilte fish and she would leave it in the bath for a day and he would be transfixed by this fish, watching it move and turn and that influence came through in so many of his buildings.

甚至他的一些巨型项目表面也覆盖着无数鱼鳞状的鳞片结构。

Even some of his hugest projects were covered in myriad scales that looked like fish scales.

他制作了一些名为'加里灯'的灯具，外形如同游动的鱼，内部装有温暖的钨丝灯泡。

He made some lamps called Garry lamps, which were shaped like a swimming fish with a warm incandescent light inside.

他痴迷于鱼在水中游动的动态，这自然延伸出对涟漪水波和鼓风船帆的运用。

He loved the action of fish swimming through water, so that led on naturally to rippling water and to billowing sails.

他也喜欢使用日常工业材料，就是普通人住宅里常见的那种。

He also liked to use everyday industrial materials, the sort that most people had around them in their housing.

他的作品招致了大量批评，这完全可以理解。

He drew a lot of criticism with his work, quite understandably.

评论家们发现经过多年后，他的风格已变得有些陈词滥调。

Critics found that after some years he'd become a bit of a cliche.

你能一眼认出Garry建筑的原因在于它们开始看起来都大同小异了。

The reason you could tell a Garry building when you spotted one was that they were beginning to look rather the same.

所以他正在变成一个品牌。

So he was becoming a brand.

而且由于需求量太大，他有点分身乏术。

And also he was so much in demand that he was spreading himself rather thin.

他对此表示反对，因为他总是愿意暂停大型项目为朋友们做私人委托。

He objected to that because he was always willing to stop the big projects and do personal commissions for friends.

更何况创意还在不断涌现。

And also, the ideas kept coming.

如果灵感仍在迸发，他为什么要停止创作呢？

Why should he stop working if his ideas were still coming?

这些灵感来得又快又密集，事实也确实如此。

So thick and fast, and they were.

他发现形状会在他梦中浮现，有时在开车时，有时在飞机上。

He found that shapes came to him in dreams or sometimes when he was driving or when he was on a plane.

他会像往常一样快速画出草图。

He'd quickly sketch it out as usual.

他会用纸板做个模型。

He'd make a cardboard model of it.

然后他会把模型带到办公室，在那里，那台著名的电脑要么告诉他'不行，这不可能'，要么会以某种方式榨干他所有的创意灵感，让他对这些想法不再那么热衷。

Then he'd take it into the office and there, of course, the famous computer would either tell him, No, it's impossible, or it would somehow dry all his ideas out, that he was no longer quite so keen on them.

但他早已将手指伸入鲜活想象力的火焰中太久太多次，现在绝不可能停下。

But he had put his finger in the fire of living imaginations far too often, for too long, to possibly stop now.

安妮·罗为您报道刚刚去世、享年96岁的弗兰克·盖里。

Anne Rowe on Frank Gehry, who's died aged 96.

本期《情报》节目到此结束。

That's all for this episode of The Intelligence.

节目编辑是克里斯·英庇和杰克·吉尔。

The show's editors are Chris Impey and Jack Gill.

副主编是约翰·乔·德夫林，音效设计师是威尔·罗。

Our deputy editor is John Jo Devlin, and our sound designer is Will Rowe.

我们的音频记者是莎拉·拉尼鲁克，高级制作人是亨丽埃塔·麦克法兰，高级创意制作人是威廉·沃伦。

Our audio correspondent is Sarah Larniuk, our senior producer, Henrietta McFarlane, and senior creative producer, William Warren.

我们的制作人是乔纳森·戴和安妮·汉娜，本周还得到了艾米丽·埃利亚斯和本吉·盖伊的额外制作协助。

Our producers are Jonathan Day and Anne Hanna with extra production help this week from Emily Elias and Benjie Guy.

我们明天将在这里与大家再次相聚，带来周末版的《情报》节目。

We'll all see you back here tomorrow for the weekend intelligence.

你可能还记得上周我们为你预告了我同事伊朗之行的精彩内容。

You probably remember last week when we gave you a little taster of my colleague's revealing trip to Iran.

明天的节目将进行更深入、更私密的探讨，展现外国记者在德黑兰工作的真实体验。

Tomorrow's episode takes a far deeper and more intimate look as they reflect on what it's like to work as foreign journalists in Tehran.