黄金、石油与稀土：大宗商品风云变幻

近期大宗商品市场出现了重大波动。原油价格因美国对俄罗斯的新制裁而上涨。稀土矿物在中美紧张局势中扮演核心角色，黄金则回吐了今年部分巨大涨幅。这些市场未来走势如何？大宗商品在当前投资组合中应如何配置？我是Allison Nathan，这里是高盛交易所。

We've seen some really significant moves in the commodity markets of late. Crude oil is rising on the back of new US sanctions on Russia. Rare earth minerals are playing a central role in US China tensions, and gold has given back some of the huge gains it's made this year. So what's ahead for these markets, and how can commodities fit into portfolios today? I'm Allison Nathan, and this is Goldman Sachs Exchanges.

本周我们邀请到高盛研究部大宗商品研究联席主管Don Stroyben。Don，欢迎再次来到节目。

This week, I'm joined by Don Stroyben, co head of commodities research in Goldman Sachs Research. Don, welcome back to the program.

谢谢邀请，Allison。

Thanks for having me, Allison.

当前大宗商品领域动态频发，让我们先从原油说起。听众们可能已听闻美国对俄罗斯石油实施新制裁的消息。请为我们梳理最新进展——目前情况如何？这对石油市场有多重要？

So there's so much going on right now commodities, but let's start with crude oil. I think our listeners have probably heard about the news that The US is imposing new sanctions on Russian oil. But just bring us up to date. What has happened so far, and how important is that to oil markets?

俄罗斯两大石油生产商Rosneft和Luke Oil遭到美国新制裁。这两家公司今年以来日均石油出口量达300万桶，约占全球市场的3%。我们的模拟显示，若这两家公司的出口量持续大幅中断，且沙特等OPEC+产油国不填补缺口，到2026年油价可能上涨近20美元/桶。但实际上，我们认为对全球石油进口的影响可能较为有限，因为OPEC核心成员国具备闲置产能来弥补部分缺口。

So the two largest Russian oil producers, Rosneft and Luke Oil, got hit with fresh sanctions by The US. Together, those stock companies have been exporting 3,000,000 barrels per day of oil year to date. That's a lot of oil, roughly 3% of the global markets. Our simulations suggest that prices could end up almost $20 per barrel higher in 2026 if you were to see a sustained and large disruption in the export volumes from those two companies, assuming other OPEC plus producers like Saudi Arabia don't fill in the shortfall. In practice, we think the impact will be likely more limited to global oil imports because core OPEC has spare capacity to offset some of the shortfall.

预计部分俄罗斯原油买家将通过许可证获得豁免。第三，贸易网络往往会在制裁后重组。部分俄罗斯石油可能通过未受制裁的公司流通，就像我们在2025年1月拜登政府制裁后看到的那样——贸易流重组后俄罗斯石油仍在继续流通。

I would expect some of the buyers of Russian crude to get exemptions via licenses. And third, trade networks often get reorganized in the aftermath of sanctions. Perhaps some of the Russian oil will flow via non sanctioned companies very much as what we saw in the aftermath of the January 2025 Biden administration sanctions where the trade flows were reorganized and the Russian flows continued.

基于这则新闻，我们的石油预测是怎样的？

So what is our oil forecast off the back of this news?

我们仍预计油价将再下跌10美元/桶，2026年布伦特原油价格将维持在55美元左右。

We continue to expect oil prices to decline another $10 a barrel with Brent in the mid fifties in 2026.

好的。所以这个价格仍然相对较低。我认为你的预测一直偏悲观。

Okay. So that is still relatively low. You've been on the bearish side of, I think, estimates.

是的。

Yep.

好的。有意思。我们看到油价在这之后明显大幅上涨。那么市场是否反应过度了？

Okay. Interesting. We have seen oil prices obviously rising fairly dramatically in the wake of this. So is the market just overreacting?

我不这么认为。这次涨幅也不算太大。根据我们的模型，油价上涨了约5美元/桶，这与市场将其对150万桶供应中断概率的预估上调60个百分点相符。这个调整幅度相当大。但即便如此，我认为市场反应并未过度。

I don't think so. It wasn't either big move. We rose about $5 per barrel based on our models that corresponds to the market upgrading its estimate of the chance of a large one and a half million barrel split disruption by 60 percentage points. So that's that's a pretty big change. That said, I don't think the market reaction was outsized.

事实上，如果我们回顾今年夏天伊朗遭遇袭击时，油价涨幅是现在的三倍，看涨期权保护成本的涨幅也远高于过去一周。实际上，当前油价水平与基本面相符——考虑到全球和经合组织库存水平。那么问题在于：为何市场反应比六月更为克制？我认为部分原因是尾部风险不那么极端。夏季时我们考虑的是霍尔木兹海峡关闭导致全球供应减少20%的极端情景。

In fact, if we go back to the summer when we had attacks on Iran, the price increase was three times bigger and the cost of upside protection call options rose much more than it has over the past week. And in fact, the oil price level is now pretty much in line with what fundamentals would suggest in terms of where are the global and OECD inventory levels. And so the question is why is the market reaction more muted than in June? I think some of it has to do with the fact that the tail is less extreme. In the summer we were thinking about a tail scenario where a closure of the Strait Of Hormuz would reduce global supply by 20%.

而现在我们讨论的潜在供应中断幅度是3%。此外，过去几个月库存显著增加（这在夏季尚未出现），这是支撑我们看空预测的关键因素——源于供应强劲增长和库存累积。第三，部分投资者可能从今年某些事件中推断，美国政府可能通过升级手段来最终实现局势降级。

Today we're talking about potentially an upside of 3% disruptions. We are also seeing very significant inventory builds in the last few months, which we didn't see yet over the summer, which is ultimately the driver of our bearish call driven by strong supply growth and inventory builds. And I think third, some investors may have inferred from some of the events this year that the US administration may escalate to eventually de escalate.

好的。但我听到的是波动性，可能没有之前发展时期那么剧烈，但我们仍预期在这些政策推进过程中会出现相当程度的波动。

Okay. But what I'm hearing is volatility, maybe not as much volatility as we had during prior developments, but we still expect quite a bit of volatility as these policy developments work through.

我们必须统计桶数，看看俄罗斯的石油流量是否畅通。

We'll have we'll have to count the barrels and see whether the Russian flows are are flowing.

那么让我们转向讨论另一个重点领域——稀土矿物。它们显然已成为全球贸易和地缘政治的焦点。首先，请为我们提供一些背景和概况分析。

So let's pivot and talk about another major area of focus, rare earth minerals. They have obviously become a flashpoint in global trade and geopolitics. First, just give us some perspective and context and size them up for us.

是的。这里存在一个悖论。这是个非常小的市场，按2024年全球产值计算，规模只有铜市场的1/33。但另一方面，这个市场对生产国防物资、先进计算机芯片、电池和低碳能源解决方案至关重要。虽然市场规模小，却是极其重要的生产原料。

Yes. There's a bit of a paradox. It's an incredibly small market, about 33 times smaller than the copper market in terms of the value of global production in 2024. On the other hand, this market is extremely critical to produce defense goods, to produce advanced computer ships, batteries, low carbon energy solutions. It's really an extremely important input, but the market itself is very small.

从宏观层面看，我认为这是中国在一系列潜在政策工具中拥有最大影响力的领域。

And at a high level, I think it's the one area where China has the greatest leverage across a range of potential policy tools.

那么最终投资者能否参与其中？显然这些都是需求旺盛的稀缺商品。如你所说，它们目前是谈判筹码。这种情况在市场上会如何体现？

And so ultimately, though, can investors gain exposure? Clearly, these are scarce commodities that are in high demand. And as you said, they are a negotiating tool at this moment. So where do we see that playing out in terms of markets? Markets?

主要是股票市场而非大宗商品市场。是的，部分稀土商品确实有交易，但主要在中国交易所。实际上当中国限制出口时，国内市场供应增加，这些价格并不会飙升。相比之下，一些澳大利亚、加拿大和西方的矿业公司、精炼商等供应链企业，在中国限制稀土供应引发担忧时往往表现优异。

Mostly to equities markets as opposed to commodity markets. Yes, some of these rare earths commodities, they trade, but they trade in the China exchange. And in fact, when China restricts exports, so has more supply in the domestic market, these prices, they don't spike. In contrast, you have some Australians, some Canadians, some Western companies active in this supply chain, miners, refiners that tend to perform very well when there are concerns about China restricting supply of railroads.

但这完全是个受新闻标题驱动的情况，对吧？因为在过去24小时里，我们看到中美谈判氛围转暖的新闻标题，但实际上相关股票却在抛售。

But this is a very headline driven situation. Right? Because we got a headline in the last twenty four hours that talks between China and The US are taking a more favorable tone, and we've actually seen those equities selling off.

是的。这些股票年内仍有显著涨幅，但当前市场主要由政策驱动。就新闻标题而言，我认为任何中美贸易协议的最终框架仍需两国元首签署。而且这个问题短期内不会消失——正如我们讨论过的，稀土和磁材对某些最具战略意义的行业至关重要。其次，中国在这方面的主导地位确实非常巨大。

Yes. They're still up to very significant extents year to date, but it's very much a policy driven market. On the headline specifically, I think ultimately the final contours of any US China trade deal still have to be signed off by respective presidents. And I don't think this issue is going to go away anytime soon because, as we discussed, rare earths and magnets are extremely critical for some of the most strategic sectors. Second, China's dominance is truly massive.

全球92%的稀土精炼在中国完成，98%的磁材生产在中国进行。第三，西方建立独立供应链需要数年时间。建设一座稀土精炼厂约需五年，部分重稀土矿在中国和缅甸以外地区极为稀缺，而新建矿山需耗时十年左右。

92% of refining of rare earths in the world happens in China. 98% of the magnets production in the world happens in China. And third, it's going to take years to build up independent supply chains in the West. Building a refinery of rare earths takes about five years or so. Some of the heavy rare earths deposits are extremely scarce outside of China and Myanmar, and it takes about ten years to build a mine.

因此我认为这个问题将伴随我们和投资者多年。

So I think this issue is going to stay with us and with investors for years to come.

有意思。好的，让我们转向另一个剧烈波动的贵金属——黄金。今年几乎全年都保持着惊人的上涨势头，屡创新高。但上周突然遭遇急刹车，市场出现了大幅回调。

Interesting. Okay. Let's turn to the other major commodity experiencing tons of volatility, gold. It's obviously seen incredible upside momentum for almost all of this year, record breaking new highs. But last week, that just came to what seemed like a very abrupt halt, and the market is down pretty substantially.

请给我们些背景分析。虽然涨幅仍远超稀土类股票，但请解读下这种走势以及上周突然回调的原因。

Give us some perspective. It's still up as our rare earth minerals equities dramatically, but give us some perspective on that and why the abrupt pullback last week.

我认为简而言之就是价格涨得过快，有些脱离基本面。我们确实看到投机性多头头寸出现调整，特别是看涨期权市场的持仓。若观察未平仓合约——这是投机投资者持仓的风向标——已经回落不少。但我们的核心观点并未改变。

Yeah. I think the short explanation is prices had just gone a little bit too quickly and ran a little bit ahead of fundamentals. We did see some correction in more speculative positioning, long positioning, especially in the call options market. And if you look at open interest, a proxy for a speculative investor's positioning that has come off quite a bit. Our conviction, however, has not changed.

我们仍预计到明年年底金价将上涨至每盎司4900美元，因为我们确实认为今年乃至过去几年的大部分上涨动力来自持续性的购买行为，尤其是各国央行的购金。我们认为它们会继续增持黄金以实现资产多元化。这是一个持续多年的牛市。事实上，我认为我们看涨预测的风险更偏向上行，因为我们没有将私营部门多元化配置带来的上行潜力纳入考量，比如主权财富基金或养老基金可能意识到黄金作为战略资产在投资组合中的重要性。我们的看涨预测并未包含私营部门这种潜在配置需求带来的上涨空间。

We continue to expect gold to rise to $4,900 per trillions by the end of next year because we do think that most of the rally year to date or in fact over the last few years is by sticky purchases, especially of central banks. We think they will continue to diversify into gold. This is a multiyear bull market. And in fact, the risks to our bullish forecast, I think, are to the upside because we don't incorporate upside from what we call private sector diversification, for instance, sovereign wealth funds or pension funds, realizing that gold is a strategic asset that has a place in portfolios. Our bullish forecast does not incorporate upside from that potential diversification team in the private sector.

你在播客中曾强调过这一点，但我认为有必要再次重申：这是资金战略性重新配置黄金的结构性趋势。推动这轮涨势的并非对冲基金或散户投资者的购金行为，因此从你的视角来看，这种趋势具有持续性。

And you made that point before in the podcast, but I think it's very important to reinforce it, that this is a structural story of strategic reallocation towards gold. This is not a bunch of hedge funds or retail investors buying gold that's really driven this rally. So it's got staying power from your perspective.

是的，完全正确。

Yes. Absolutely.

那么除了黄金，我们还看到白银价格剧烈波动。这是同样的逻辑驱动，还是存在差异？

So along with gold, we've seen a lot of volatility in silver. So is the story the same or are there differences?

我认为共同点在于美联储降息会提升黄金白银等非生息资产的吸引力。随着美联储未来三个季度可能再降息100个基点，我们预计ETF资金将进一步流入，这可能推高白银ETF的购买需求从而提振价格。但两者的差异点其实更多：首先，白银价格没有央行购金作为支撑——央行只买黄金。

So I think the commonality is that Fed cuts make it more attractive to invest in non yielding assets such as gold and silver. And so we expect that additional ETF inflows as the Fed cuts by another 100 basis points over the next three quarters probably puts upward pressure on ETF buying of silver and therefore on the price. However, I think the list of differences is longer than the list of similarities. Number one, there is no central bank anchor under silver prices. Central banks, they buy gold.

它们不买白银。其次，虽然黄金市场规模相比国债或股市已经较小，但白银市场规模更是只有黄金的九分之一，流动性更低、规模更小，是风险更高的资产。

They don't buy silver. Second, while the gold market is quite modest compared to the treasury market or the stock market, the silver market is even nine times smaller than the gold market. So it's less liquid. It's smaller. It's a much riskier asset.

第三点涉及技术性因素：今年夏秋之际白银市场的急速上涨，部分源于我们所说的'伦敦挤仓'事件。由于年初大量白银为规避潜在美国关税而流向美国，导致伦敦现货市场出现白银短缺。这种库存紧张对银价形成了巨大上行压力。目前由于价差因素，白银正重新流回伦敦市场。

And third, a bit of a technical point. Some of the very sharp rally we saw this summer and in the start of the fall in the silver market was driven by what we called the London squeeze. There was basically a lack of silver in the London physical market because earlier this year a lot of the silver had gone to The US ahead of a potential US tariff. And so you ran out of silver in the London markets and that created an enormous amount of upward pressure on silver prices. Now metal is flowing in into the London markets because of relative price differences.

当前白银市场的紧缩态势正在缓解，这加剧了抛售行情。而黄金市场并未出现类似情况。总体来看，我认为黄金在结构上更具投资吸引力且风险较低，而白银虽然基本面向好，但波动性更大且存在双向风险。

So that squeeze that tightness is unwinding and that's amplifying the sell off in the silver market. We don't see this in the gold market. So big picture, I think the outlook for gold is structurally more attractive, less risky, whereas for silver, my base case is upside, but a lot more volatility and two sided risks.

这生动地提醒我们：讨论大宗商品本质上是在讨论实物资产。因此价格走势和波动性很大程度上取决于这些商品的产地和流通渠道。

And it's just a fascinating reminder that when you're talking about commodities, you're talking about physical assets. And so a lot of the price action and volatility really depends on where those commodities live and are flowing.

确实如此。

Exactly.

很有意思。不过让我们从更宏观的投资组合视角来探讨——对于当下考虑大宗商品配置的资产配置者和多资产投资者而言，这些意味着什么？

Fascinating. But let's talk about the broader portfolio perspective here. So what does all of this mean for asset allocators and multi asset investors in thinking about the role of commodities today?

我们给投资者的核心建议仍是增持大宗商品（特别是黄金）。虽然我们对大宗商品的基本预测并未显示整体会有大幅正收益（主要增长集中在黄金和美国天然气），但我们认为大宗商品在投资组合中的价值主要体现在风险对冲层面，其中关键风险之一是货币贬值风险。

So our main message for investors remains diversifying into commodities, especially gold, while our base case outlook for commodity initiatives doesn't show large positive returns with large upside concentrated in gold and U. S. Natural gas. We do think the attractiveness of commodities in portfolios is really for the risk cases. One key risk is the debasement risk.

多国财政政策可能正走向不可持续的发展路径。在这些情况下，各国央行的独立性也可能受到挑战。我认为贵金属（尤其是黄金）价格的上行空间甚至可能超过我们的基准预测。另一风险是各国日益将大宗商品作为地缘政治和经济博弈的筹码，稀土领域已现端倪。

The concern that fiscal policy may be on an unsustainable path in several countries. The possibility that central banks independence may be challenged in those situations. I think there's even more upside to precious metal prices, especially gold, than in our base case. The other risk is that countries increasingly could use commodities as geopolitical and economic leverage. We're seeing it with rare earths.

俄罗斯石油制裁事件表明，原油也可能被用作经济和地缘政治武器。随着大宗商品供应日益集中于地缘政治或贸易争端热点地区，我们认为供应中断风险正在上升。因此大宗商品作为分散投资工具、对冲负面供应冲击的价值无疑进一步提升了。

Russia sanctions on oil suggest that oil could potentially also be used the form of economic and geopolitical leverage. And with commodity supply becoming increasingly concentrated often in geopolitical or trade dispute hotspots. We think that the risk of supply disruptions has grown. And so I think the value of commodities as a diversifier, as a hedge against those negative supply shocks has definitely grown further.

那么，你实际看到的是客户们正在通过大宗商品进行更多元化的投资吗？

And so is that what you're actually seeing with clients that they are diversifying more with commodities?

是的。我们正与越来越多的客户讨论投资大宗商品，以分散这些日益增长的风险。

Yes. We're having more and more conversations with clients to invest in commodities to diversify against these growing risks.

尤其是黄金。

Especially in gold.

尤其是黄金。

Especially in gold.

好的。再次感谢你的参与，唐。

Yeah. Thanks again for joining us, Don.

谢谢你，艾莉森。

Thank you, Alison.

感谢收听本期高盛交易所节目，本期录制于2025年10月27日星期一。我是艾莉森·内森。

Thanks for listening to this episode of Goldman Sachs Exchanges, which was recorded on Monday, 10/27/2025. I'm Alison Nathan.

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