寻找趋势：One River资产管理公司的埃里克·彼得斯

欢迎来到高盛交流系列节目《伟大投资者》的又一期。

Welcome to another episode of Goldman Sachs Exchanges, Great Investors.

我是托尼·帕斯卡雷洛，高盛全球银行与市场部门对冲基金业务的全球主管。

I'm Tony Pascarello, global head of hedge fund coverage in Goldman Sachs Global Banking and Markets.

今天，我非常荣幸能与埃里克·彼得斯坐下来交谈。

And today, I have the pleasure of sitting down with Eric Peters.

埃里克同时领导着Coinbase资产管理公司——一家由Coinbase全资拥有的数字资产管理公司，以及One River资产管理公司——一家专注于风险控制和趋势策略的另类投资管理公司。

Eric leads both Coinbase Asset Management, a digital asset manager wholly owned by Coinbase, and One River Asset Management, an alternative investment manager focused on risk mitigation and trend strategies.

他还是广受欢迎的通讯《周末笔记》的作者。

He is also the author of the widely read newsletter weekend notes.

埃里克是我们行业中一位极具思想深度的人物。

Eric is an intellectual force within our industry.

他持续提供深思熟虑的研究成果，并常常提出极具争议性的投资领域见解。

He consistently offers up deeply thought out research and quite often often highly provocative ideas about the investment landscape.

每次与他的对话，我都会获得一种看待世界的新视角，我相信这次对话也不例外。

I always come away from our conversations with a slightly new way of looking at the world, and I'm sure this conversation will be no different.

埃里克，欢迎来到《伟大投资者》。

Eric, welcome to Great Investors.

谢谢。

Thank you.

你太客气了。

That is very kind.

让我们回到你职业生涯的起点。

Let's go back to the beginning of your career.

你最初在芝加哥的交易场开始职业生涯。

You've got your start in the trading pits in Chicago.

从公开喊价的时代，你至今仍铭记哪些经验教训？

Are there some lessons that you still carry with you today from the days of Open Outcry?

哦，很多。

Oh, many.

几乎全部都是风险管理。

They're almost entirely risk management.

我开始用自己的钱交易。

I started trading my own money.

所以我在大学四年级时就决定要从事交易。

So I figured out my senior in college that I wanted to trade.

好的。

K.

你学的是什么？

What did you study?

经济学。

Economics.

是的。

Yep.

但那其实并不真实。

Which wasn't really real.

说实话，他的头脑并没有那么相关。

Honestly, his head's not that relevant.

但我实际上接触了各种从事不同工作的人，都是很成功的人，我在芝加哥偶然遇到一位成为我导师的非常成功的交易员。

But I actually met with all sorts of people who did different jobs, very successful people, and I stumbled across someone who became my mentor in Chicago who was a very successful trader.

我意识到，做这件事我永远不会感到无聊。

And I concluded I'm never gonna be bored doing this.

是的。

Yeah.

而且我一直想做属于自己的事情，所以我没有去华尔街。

So and I wanted I've always wanted to do something on my own, so I didn't go to Wall Street.

就在那里。

Just there.

我已经赚了一些钱。

I'd made some money.

我在大学时就经营过一些生意，所以赚了一些钱。

I had some businesses in college, so I made some money.

好的。

K.

只是收拾了一下，就过去了，嗯。

Just packed it up, went out there, and yeah.

当你用自己的钱交易时，无论是年轻人还是年纪大的人。

When you're trading your own money and you're a young guy or an older guy.

这让人清醒。

It's sobering.

这是玉米交易区吗？

And this was the corn pit?

玉米交易区。

Corn pit.

你怎么选玉米的？

How'd you pick corn?

有人告诉我，在玉米上亏的钱比较少，而我也没多少钱可以亏。

I was told that you lose less money in corn and I didn't have much money to lose.

所以我想，你知道吗？

So I figured, you know what?

我们就从那里开始吧。

Let's start there.

在那些年，当你获得一个交易所的席位，而那是一个小交易所时，我们会交易大量合约，你会参加一个入门培训课，内容就是左看右看，没几个人能坚持下来。

Back in those days when you got a seat on an exchange, and it was a little exchange, we traded out lots, you'd go through this orientation class and it was look left, look right, and not many people are gonna make it.

那一切关乎生存。

And that's, it was all about survival.

因为两年内，最初那30个人中的几乎所有人都离开了。

Because within two years, almost everyone from that first class of 30 was gone.

那你干了多久？

And how long did you

做吗？

do it?

我做了两年。

I did for two years.

是的。

Yeah.

好的。

Okay.

嗯。

Yeah.

然后从那里开始，你的职业路径中，在匹兹堡和One River之间发生了什么？

And then quickly, the career path from there, what came in between Pitt and One River?

我那位导师不幸离世，因此我经历了一段自我探索的时期。

I lost that mentor tragically, and so I had a bit of a soul searching period.

我差点参军了。

I almost joined the military.

我想也许金融并不适合我。

I thought maybe finance isn't for me.

我表现得不错，但后来通过雷曼兄弟的一位高层人士联系到我，他跟我说：我觉得你应该来这儿。

I'd done well, but and then I got through someone at Lehman Brothers, who's a very senior person there, talked to me, and just said, you know what, I think you should come here.

没几个人能像你这样。

Not many people do what you've done.

你不妨试一试。

You should just give it a try.

我曾经告诉自己永远不会去华尔街，所以两年后，我又回到了华尔街。

And I had told myself I was never going to Wall Street, so I was like, two years in, I'm gonna go to Wall Street again.

明白了，好的。

Got it, okay.

一年后，我确信自己真的不想去华尔街。

And after a year I was convinced that I really didn't want go to Wall Street.

但我的老板派我去伦敦，他说：听着，我知道这不适合你，所以你不如去那儿，我的意思是，我一直都是个独立的创造型人格，官僚体制真的不是我的菜。

But my boss sent me to London, and he just said, listen, I know this is not your scene, so why don't you, and what I mean by that is I think I've always just been a pretty independent builder type person, and it was just bureaucracies are not really my thing.

所以他让我去伦敦。

So he said, go out to London.

那里创业氛围很浓厚。

It's very entrepreneurial out there.

当时人们还在办公桌上抽烟。

People are still smoking on the desk at the time.

以美国标准来看，那地方还很不发达，是的。

It was non developed by US standards Yeah.

那种生意，他就说，你只管想办法赚钱，我会支持你。

Kind of business, and he just said, just figure out how to make money and I'll support you.

我到那儿的时候正好赶上金融危机。

And I got there at an amazing time, which was the crisis.

所以我们找到了很多赚钱的方法。

And so we figured out how to make a lot of money.

这是九十年代初吗？

This is the early nineties?

那时候的早期。

Early then.

是的。

Yeah.

我是在1991年到那里的。

This is I got there in '91.

然后我在雷曼待了好几年。

And then I end up staying at Lehman for a bunch of years.

我做过自营交易员，在瑞士信贷工作过，休了一年去爬山，那是一种全新的风险管理方式，还在互联网泡沫时期创办了一家金融公司，这是我第一次真正运营一家大型公司。

I was a prop trader, Credit Suisse, took a year off, climbed mountains, which was another whole new form of risk management, and started a company during the .com period, a financial company, which was my first real operating experience of a significant company.

大概在2004年左右卖掉了那家公司，然后又回到了交易领域。

Sold that in the o four or something like that, and then went back into trading.

先是为自己交易，之后为几家对冲基金担任宏观投资经理，最后于2013年创立了One River。

First for myself, then couple hedge funds as a macro PM, and then started One River in 2013.

嗯。

K.

在我看来，你的一部分工作是宏观策略。

In my mind, part of what you do is macro.

侧重于趋势跟踪，另一部分则是你所说的数字加密货币。

An emphasis on trend following, and part is whatever you want to call it, digital crypto.

就我们今天所处的时点而言，这两个领域是如何相互补充的？

As we sit here today, how do those two worlds complement each other?

我认为我们在One River真正做的是风险缓释，而且我们非常注重机会。

I'd say what we do is what we really do at One River is risk mitigation and we're highly opportunistic.

因此，趋势跟踪是其中的一部分，但长期波动率策略在我们的业务中占比更大，我们将这两者结合在一起，作为为客户管理风险的手段，但我们始终在寻找新的机会。作为宏观投资者，你对任何事物都不会了解得太深，这既是优势也是劣势，但你可以覆盖广泛的领域，因此我们在2020年进入了加密货币领域。

And so trend following is part of that, but long vol is a much bigger part of our business and we kind of bring those two things together as risk mitigants for our clients, but we're always on the hunt for things, and just as a macro investor, you don't know anything too deeply, which is both a strength and a weakness, and then, but you can cover a lot of ground, and so we got into crypto in 2020.

我们在疫情期间为客户取得了非常好的收益，接下来的问题是：下一步该做什么？

We've done very well for clients through the pandemic, and then the question was, okay, what next?

我们的一位最大客户和我都对加密货币如何体现货币贬值这一主题非常感兴趣。

And one of our biggest clients and I were both very interested in what crypto could represent in terms of an expression of monetary debasement theme.

因此，我们在2020年11月进行了大规模投资，一年内收益翻了三倍。

And so we made a very large investment in November 2020 that tripled over the next year.

顺便说一下，我们后来退出了，并将所有收益返还给了客户。

And we got out, by the way, and returned all that all that capital.

希望这是我们有史以来最大的一次赎回。

Hopefully the biggest redemption we'll ever have.

但我们围绕这一主题也建立了一项业务。

But we built a business around that as well.

因此，我认为数字化很可能是一个持续十年的趋势，我想参与其中。

And so I think digital, I saw digital as being probably a ten year theme and I wanted to be part of it.

所以我们扩展了业务的这一部分。

And so we just built out a part of the business.

我认为我们为客户做的最重要的是，将风险缓释与他们现有的投资组合结合，帮助他们以优于股票的速率实现资产增值。

So I think the biggest thing that we do for our clients is bring risk mitigation together with their existing portfolios to help them compound at a better rate than equities.

但我们始终在寻找下一个风险或机会。

But we're always on the hunt for what's next in terms of risk or opportunity.

明白了。

Got it.

你提到了秋季策略、对冲策略。

You mentioned fall strategies, hedging strategies.

如今这是一个相关的话题，人们担心估值和集中度问题。

It's a relevant thought these days and people are worried about valuation and worried about concentration.

不过，对冲并不容易。

Hedging though, hedging is not easy.

每天回家都持有长期波动率头寸代价高昂。

Going home long vol every day is a is an expensive proposition.

那你如何看待这个问题呢？

And so how do you think about that?

我认为，由于我职业生涯的起点，我宁愿回家时持有一点点各种头寸，也不愿出现不足，这本身就是我的风格，坦白说，我在真正动荡的时期赚的钱比平时多得多。

I think probably because where I started my career, I'd rather go home long a bit of all than shortfall, and that's just part of who I am, and quite frankly, I've made a lot more money during really disruptive periods than not.

但我觉得，大多数投资者想到对冲时，会觉得它非常困难，确实如此，但他们并没有以正确的方式思考它。

But I think what most investors think when they think hedging is they think it is really hard because it is, but they don't quite think about it in the right way.

明白了。

Okay.

现在我们来谈谈那些大型投资者。

Now let's talk about the really big investors.

那些大型投资者会想，我有这么多钱，我该怎么对冲呢？

The really big investors go, look, have so much money that how can I hedge it?

这根本不可能。

It's just not possible.

实际上，在很多情况下，我的长期资金来自养老基金和捐赠基金。

And actually I have long duration money in a lot of case on pension plan, endowment.

当然。

Sure.

那我为什么不直接熬过任何下跌呢？

And so why don't I just ride out any downdraft?

所以我认为他们对这个问题的思考方式有点偏差。

And so I think that they they think about it a little bit the wrong way.

我是这么想的：如果你有良好的对冲工具，并将其与你的投资组合结合，不使用杠杆，你就无需退出风险。

The way I think about it is if you have good hedges in place and you combine it with your portfolio so that you don't really, you don't use some leverage, you don't have to take risk off the table.

当市场出现波动时，你的对冲工具会产生大量现金，而此时你很可能因为情绪化而做出糟糕的决策。

Then when something happens, you actually have your hedge which produces a lot of cash, when mentally you're probably prone to make some pretty bad decisions.

对。

Right.

比如，我手上有一大笔现金。

Like, I've got this big pile of cash here.

对。

Right.

也许我可以拿它来应对一些赎回，或者支付捐赠基金的预算，或者买入一些现在非常便宜的资产。

Maybe I can use it for some of my redemptions or to pay the endowment's budget or to buy some really cheap assets here.

我认为，从整体上看，这才是看待对冲和我们所做事情的正确方式，如果你的投资组合中有这种动态机制，你实际上能比单纯持有风险资产获得更好的复利效果。

And I think I think that's really the right way like holistically, that's the right way to think about hedging and what we do and I think it's a you really can compound better than just being long risk assets if you have that dynamic in your portfolio.

那么，就我们今天所处的环境而言，考虑到波动率曲线，有什么特别吸引你的地方吗？

And as we sit here today, just given the setup, given vol surfaces, is there anything that looks particularly compelling to you?

目前秋季的定价相当便宜，总体而言是这样，但我认为你必须保持灵活，因为我认为许多投资者犯的一个错误是，他们现在只盯着自己的投资组合。

Fall's pretty cheap right now, just as a general matter, but I think you have to be dynamic because I mean, one of the mistakes that I think a lot of investors make is they they're looking at their portfolios right now.

他们看到的是极高的估值。

They're going really high valuations.

我不知道明年会发生什么。

I don't know about next year.

地缘政治局势会如何发展，谁也说不准。

Who knows what's happening geopolitically.

波动率很低。

Vols cheap.

我要做一个大对冲。

I'm gonna put a big hedge on.

他们大多数人会锁定一个行权价。

And what most of them do is they lock in a strike price.

是的，他们获得了便宜的波动率，但他们不知道危机何时会发生。

And yeah, they got cheap vol, but they don't know when the crisis is gonna happen.

如果市场上涨10%或15%，然后下跌25%呢？

So what if the market rallies 10 or 15% and then falls 25?

下跌时感觉会很糟糕，但你的行权价并没有带来多少凸性。

It's gonna feel pretty awful on the way down, but you're strike you you don't really have that much convexity.

你并没有一个好的对冲策略。

You don't have a great hedge in place.

对。

Right.

所以我认为关键在于保持高度动态，而人们现在对估值感到担忧，这很正常。

So I think the key is being really really dynamic and people are worried about valuations right now as you should be.

好的。

Alright.

我想谈谈

I wanna talk

趋势跟踪投资。

about trend trend following investing.

这是你策略的重要组成部分。

It's a big part of your approach.

现在的框架是什么？

What's the framework right now?

你今天是如何处理这个领域的？

How do you approach that business today?

让我们先退一步来看趋势跟踪。

So just stepping back on trend following.

我认为所有优秀的投资者都是趋势追随者。

So I think all great investors are trend followers.

他们就是这样的。

They just are.

当你试图抓住趋势时，你到底在做什么呢？

Like, because what are you doing when you're trying to capitalize on a trend?

你是在预见某种市场当前低估的动态，而你相信这种动态会在某个时间段内逐渐反映在价格中。

You are foreseeing something, some dynamic that the market under appreciates today, and you believe will somehow get priced in over some period of time.

如果你是一个投资者，这个时间跨度不是一周，可能是一个月，至少是几个季度，也许是几年，甚至可能是十年。

And if you're an investor, it's not over a week, probably over a month, probably over at least a few quarters, maybe a few years, maybe a decade.

就像我之前谈到加密货币，我认为加密货币很可能是一笔为期十年的交易，我们现在才走了一半。

Like I was talking about crypto, I think crypto, I saw that is probably a ten year trade, we're halfway through it.

你仍然认为这是一笔十年期的交易吗？

And you still have that view, it's about ten year trade?

是的，我觉得差不多就是这样。

Yeah, I think that's about right.

就像我们当初以15000美元买入比特币时，现在它已经涨到85900美元了，可能还有很长的路要走，而我们才走了一半。

Like we were getting into Bitcoin at 15,000, it's $85.90, it's got a probably long way to go, and we're halfway there.

总之，我认为趋势跟踪是优秀投资者的特质。

Anyway, So, trend following, I think is great investor.

你所寻找的，就是各种趋势。

All you're looking for are trends.

那么问题来了，你该如何利用这些趋势呢？

And so the question is, how do you capitalize on those?

从最高层面来看，实现这一点有两种方式。

And there are at the highest level, there are two ways of doing it.

一种是系统性的，另一种是主观判断的。

One is systematic and one is discretionary.

我认为，历史上表现最好的投资者，是那些极其擅长在趋势早期就识别出来的主观交易者。

And I think the best performing investors through time will be the discretionary traders who are exceedingly good at identifying trends fairly early.

他们不需要在第一天就入场，但要在某种新动态即将推动市场变化的初期阶段——比如第一个季度——就发现它，然后将投资集中在一个非常狭窄的领域，可能是某只股票、某个行业、某个国家或某种商品，最后再适时退出。

They don't have to be day one, but in the first quarter of some type of new dynamic that's gonna move something, and then they concentrate their investments in a fairly narrow space, could be a stock or a sector or a country or a commodity, and then eventually they get out.

另一种方法是系统化操作，系统化的优势在于能剔除情绪干扰。

The other way to do it is systematically, and the advantage with doing it systematically is you take the emotion out of it.

你将资金分散到多个市场，我们可能交易大约150个市场，比如说。

You spread your bets across, we probably trade 150 markets, let's say.

还有更多吗？

Is there bit more?

有的。

Yeah.

你把资金分散到所有这些不同的市场中，从而能够捕捉到那些如果你靠主观判断，很可能根本不会发现、或中途因情绪失误而错过的趋势。

So you spread your bets across all these different markets, and you can essentially capitalize on trends that if you were trying to make discretionary decisions, inevitably you never make, or you might make some emotional mistakes somewhere along the way.

没错。

Right.

因此，这种策略的收益可能不如最顶尖的主观趋势识别者——比如索罗斯这样的人——但你依然能表现得很好，而且它的另一个优势是，你能抓住那些非常巨大、但你根本没预料到的市场错配时期。

And so you're not gonna make as much in that strategy as the best discretionary trend identifier, maybe someone like Soros who is great at that, but you do very well, and the advantage of that as well is you can capitalize on periods that are pretty, pretty big dislocations, things that you didn't really see coming.

这根本就没在你的关注范围内。

It just wasn't on your radar.

这可能是黄金的这种走势，也可能是2022年通过趋势跟踪，你抓住了股票和债券的双双下跌，而这打破了巨大的相关性。

It could have been like this gold move, or it could have been in 2022 by being in trend following you capitalize on the down move in equities, but also the down move in bonds, which is a huge correlation breakdown.

因此，作为普通投资者，你整个投资组合都建立在这一相关性会持续不变的假设上，结果却恰恰相反。

So as an investor, a typical investor, you had built your whole portfolio betting on that correlation remaining intact and it went the other way.

所以那一年，趋势策略表现极为出色，而大多数投资组合却表现糟糕。

So trend had a terrific year that year at a time when most portfolios really didn't.

当我们把长期波动率、趋势跟踪和股票结合起来，以杠杆方式配置，如果回溯到2007年，标普500上涨了六到七倍，而标普500加上适当对冲策略的组合则上涨了约两倍。

When we combine long volatility and trend following and equities, When you combine them in a leveraged way, and if you look back starting at 2007, let's say the S and P is up six to seven X, combination of S and P and properly built hedges is up like two X that.

而且

And

标普500对冲加趋势跟踪的组合上涨了约40倍。

S and P hedges and trend following is up like 40x.

顺便说一句，这并不直观，我职业生涯早期其实并没有真正理解这一点，但现在我明白了。

By the way, it's not intuitive, like that's something that early in my career I didn't really appreciate, But now I do.

因此，美国最大的投资者们，正是在关注这类策略。

And so the biggest investors in The US, that's the kind of thing that these guys are looking at.

好的。

Okay.

然后你怎么知道，这是个难题，但你怎么知道在最后该开口要钱了？

And then how do you know, this is the hard question, but how do you know at the end when it's time to ask for the check?

你怎么知道在大反转到来、行情结束之前？

How do you know before the big reversal comes and the end of the move comes?

或者你只是说，算了？

Or do or you just say, you know what?

我要在行情的高潮部分尽可能多赚钱，即使最后会受伤，那也没办法。

I'm gonna make as much money in the belly of that move as I can, and I'll probably get hurt at the end, but that's life.

在主观判断方面，我总是会思考主观判断，因为我们需要思考如何将主观判断的思维过程转化为我们的系统性策略。

In a discretionary and I always think about discretionary because I, you know, we think about how to, how do you codify discretionary thought processes into our systematic strategies.

但在主观判断层面，我真的不认为是估值问题。

But in a discretionary sense, I honestly do not think it's valuation.

我认为关键是能够识别出那些一直押注反趋势的人何时感到最大痛苦。

I think it's just being able to identify when people who have been betting against a trend are feeling maximum pain.

嗯。

Mhmm.

我认为这是无法教授的。

And I think you can't teach that.

可惜我真希望能在教科书里学到这一点。

Unfortunately, I wish I could have learned that in textbook.

你知道，我经历过足够多这样的行情，有时候我真的会有一种感觉，我知道那是错的。

You know, I've I've felt enough of those moves where I actually are times where I actually I feel a certain way and I know that's wrong.

比如我知道我想退出某个位置，我知道，好吧，这肯定不对。

Like I know that I wanna get out of something and I know, okay, I'm sure this is wrong.

就是这样。

It just is.

我以前见过，也感受过这种情形。

I've seen I felt this before.

但你也知道，如果你内心有某种感觉，而市场上其他人也有类似的感觉，这正是形成高低点的原因；而用系统性策略的话，情况会有点不同。

But it also you know, if you feel something in yourself that other people, you know, the market's filled with people like you, and that's what makes highs and lows on a on a systematic or with a systematic strategy, it's a bit different.

你需要有一套规则。

You need to have a set of rules.

我认为我刚才描述的这些东西，不幸的是，无法被形式化。

And I think what I just described is it's not possible to codify, unfortunately.

如果我们真能弄明白，那就等于有了印钞机。

If we ever figured it out, we have the magic money machine.

但我认为，仅从动量转折点来看，就有各种方法，而且我们还在对更多基本面因素进行研究，以预测趋势的变化。

But I think that there are all sorts of ways just in looking at momentum rollovers, but also we're doing all sorts of research on more fundamental factors that can anticipate changes in trends.

我们有一些非常棒的AI和机器学习技术。

We've got some great AI machine learning types of things.

我肯定每个人都在研究这些，因为世界上有海量数据，而且存在许多有趣的方式来思考和处理它们。

I'm sure everyone is working on those things because there's so much data in the world and there are interesting ways of thinking about it, manipulating.

我认为我们为市场带来的，是一种非常强大的主观基本面方法，然后我们努力将其形式化。

I think what we bring to the market is just a very strong discretionary fundamental approach that we then work to try to codify.

但我想说，答案就是这并不容易，你能做的就是尽最大努力，并希望通过对150个市场分散投资并保持较高波动率，长期来看能获得可观的回报。

But I think, you know, it's not easy is the answer, and you do the best you can, and you hope that by spreading your bets across 150 markets and running a pretty high vol, that over time you generate meaningful returns.

当然。

Sure.

那么，今天你有没有发现什么特别有吸引力的趋势，或者你觉得哪些趋势可能已经接近尾声了？

And is there anything today you find, any trends you find particularly compelling, or any that you feel like are probably in their last innings?

如果我们从最高层面来看，我认为从经济角度看，当前世界正在展开的最重要趋势是债务扩张。

If we talk about it at the highest level, I think the most important trend that is unfolding in the world from an economic perspective, let's set geopolitics aside, is this debt expansion.

也许这不是你原本想听的，但我们可以讨论具体市场，不过我认为这才是最关键的因素：全球各地似乎都几乎没有财政紧缩的迹象。

Just because this is probably not what you were looking for, but like we can talk about specific markets, but I think that's the most important factor here, is that there seems to be little to no spending restraint anywhere in the world.

有些地方在这方面做得比其他地方稍好一些。

There's some places that are doing trying to do a little bit better job with it than others.

美国显然不是其中之一。

The US certainly is not.

如果回顾我的职业生涯——从1989年开始——我们经历了一系列金融危机和政策应对，而这些政策应对总体上变得越来越激进。

And I think that if I reflect on my career, which started in '89, we've had these series of financial crises and policy responses, and the policy responses more or less have grown increasingly aggressive.

政府承担了更多私营部门的债务，扩大了债务规模，并试图创造持续繁荣，几乎没有任何中断。

And the government has taken on more of the private sector liabilities, expanded debt, and tried to create this ongoing prosperity with very little interruption.

因此，现在你处于这样一个阶段：我认为，除非出现真正的生产力爆发——顺便说一句，这也许会发生——否则政府债务的规模及其利息负担正在迫使政府做出各种金融压抑决策和利率决策，这很可能在未来十年内引发一场巨大的金融危机。

And so now you're at a point where I think the size of government debt, unless we have a real productivity boom, which by the way we might, but the size of that debt and the interest obligations are pushing the government to make all sorts of financial repression decisions and rate decisions, and and it and it it probably leads to a very large financial crisis here sometime over the next decade.

我认为这是最值得关注的趋势，因为从很多方面来看，几乎所有其他事情都以此为依托。

I think that's the most important trend to pay attention to, because in a lot of ways, like most things feed off of that.

我认为股市、政策、黄金、石油等发生的一切，都受到这一动态的影响。

I think what's happening in equities, what's happening in policy, what's happening in gold, what's happening in oil, like feed off of that dynamic.

那么，这一过程中的路径是利率上升、收益率曲线变陡、期限溢价增加，还是不一定？

And the path along the way is higher rates, steeper curves, more term premium, or not necessarily?

我认为政府已经启动并致力于采取的措施——顺便说一句，这其实是合理的。

I think that what the government has already begun and is committed to is, and I think by the way, it's sensible.

这听起来可能像是一种批评，但实际上并非如此。

So it might, this might sound like a criticism.

如果我和你来管理政府，我们大概也会采取差不多的策略。

I think if you and I were running the government, we would do something, you know, more or less in the same zip code.

我认为我们正在努力思考如何尽可能地让经济保持火热，同时重点清除人工智能发展的各种障碍，比如电力供应和审批流程等，并尽一切可能让能源价格尽可能低廉——我认为这是一种非常明确的战略，可能也部分解释了委内瑞拉正在发生的情况；同时尽可能抑制通胀，并竭尽全力压低利率，使实际利息负担降到最低。

I think we're trying to figure out how do we run the economy as hot as possible, but with an emphasis on making sure that we clear as many roadblocks for AI development as possible, which is electricity and permitting and all these things, and then do everything possible to make energy as cheap as we can, which I think is a very deliberate strategy and probably part of what's happening in Venezuela, and to try to keep inflation down to the greatest degree possible, and then do everything possible to manage interest rates lower so that the actual interest burden is as low as it possibly is.

如果你能让这些事情发生，我认为结果会很好。

And if you can make those things happen, I think you have pretty good outcome.

顺便说一下，我认为我们最终还是会遭遇一场危机，因为我不认为政治体制会变得更加节俭。

By the way, I think we still end up with a crisis down the road, because I don't think you're gonna see the political establishment become more austere.

对。

Right.

所以我认为，这种政策组合将这个问题推迟了三到五年，也许更久，但不太可能更久，在此期间，感觉会非常好。

So I think what that does, that combination of policies pushes that problem out three years, five years, maybe longer, probably not longer, and that'll feel really good, by way, during that period of time.

当然。

Sure.

感觉会很棒。

It'll feel great.

是的。

Yeah.

好的。

Okay.

但我认为你仍会看到这些支出动态，以及AI繁荣之后出现的任何危机——我认为这将是一场重大的危机，届时你会看到压倒性的政策回应。

But I think you'll still see these spending dynamics and you'll see whatever the crisis that comes in the backside of this AI boom is, and I think it will be significant, you'll see an overwhelming policy response.

所以我认为你应该会看到陡峭的曲线，而且你可能确实看到了，但我认为会有大量的政策行动来使这些曲线变得平缓。

So I think you should see steep curves, and you probably do, but I think there's gonna be a lot of policy action to bring those curves flatter as well.

好的。

Okay.

我们来谈谈加密货币，谈谈比特币。

Let's talk about crypto for a minute, let's talk about Bitcoin.

我们目前比10月的高点低了大约30%。

We're roughly 30% off the highs of October.

过去几个月发生了什么？

What's been kind of going on the past couple of months?

天啊，价格走势太糟糕了。

God, the price action's been terrible.

是啊。

Yeah.

这又回到你的问题了，你怎么知道趋势什么时候结束？在高点时，曾经有很多兴奋情绪。

Which goes back to you, like how do you know when trends are over, you know, there lot was of excitement at the highs.

我认为，首先，我不知道，但这是我对此的分析框架。

I think, number one, say I don't know, but I think this is my framework for it.

我认为，当时有一大批华尔街人士涌入，建立了这些数字国库公司。

I think that you had a rush of essentially Wall Street guys that came in and just built out these digital treasury companies.

显然，MicroStrategy 是这个领域的先驱，但此后出现了许多其他公司。

And obviously, MicroStrategy was the pioneer in that space, but there have been so many others that have come after that.

我认为它们并没有为经济带来巨大的价值。

And I don't think they provide massive value for the economy.

我认为它们提前透支了大量需求，为自己制造了炒作周期，迅速向前推进，将大量未来的比特币需求提前释放，然后就暂时达到了饱和点。

And I think they front loaded a lot of demand, and they created a hype cycle under themselves, and they kind of raced forward and brought a lot of a lot of future Bitcoin demand forward, and then you just hit a point of saturation for the time being.

而且系统中存在大量杠杆，押注这会推动价格达到更高水平。

And then there's a lot of leverage in the system that was betting that was gonna propel us to a higher level.

本有可能，但并没有发生。

It could have, but it didn't.

你知道，当买方逐渐枯竭时，这种市场的动态就会开始下跌。

You know, you kind of ran short of buyers and then the dynamic on a market like this is once that happens, it starts going lower.

我认为，这恰好发生在AI主题如此火爆、黄金也表现强劲的时候，而如果你看几个月甚至一年的时间周期，比特币本质上是一种动量交易。

And I think that's happened at a time when the AI theme has been so explosive, gold has been, and Bitcoin is very much a momentum trade if you look at over a few month period, even over a year period.

所以当许多此前在此投入资金的人开始亏钱，并看到其他东西在赚钱时。

So when a lot of the people who had been deploying capital there started losing money and looking at these other things are making money.

我认为你开始看到资金轮动，而我现在认为你所处的周期阶段是，人们开始对它变得非常看空。

I think you started seeing rotation and now what you, I would say now where you are in the cycle is you see people actually getting really bearish on it.

他们认为，量子计算对比特币有风险，还有其他一些因素，虽然我不认为这些风险会真正出现，但这些是我经历过几个周期后看到的典型情况。

They're like, well, there are quantum computing risks to Bitcoin, and there are, you know, which I don't think are gonna manifest by the way, but those are the things that I've seen through a few cycles now.

当你接近底部时。

You get toward the bottom.

人们开始寻找各种理由，解释为什么价格会跌得更低。

People start looking for reasons why it's going to a much lower price.

然后某种动态会发生变化。

And then some dynamic will shift.

也许有人会说，这是白银对比特币的比率，虽然这毫无意义，但这个比率差距太大了，或者说是追赶行情，你知道，它会开始上涨，而其他资产则会停滞，因此我认为，鉴于政策活动，我们的价格会大幅上涨，但我想这就是正在发生的事情，而且当这种情况发生时，大家都很痛苦，都在问：为什么会这样？

Maybe it's the silver to people will say, the silver to Bitcoin ratio, which means nothing, but it's so wide, or it's the catch up trade, you know, it'll start moving, and those others will stall, and so I think we have significantly higher prices given policy activity, but I think that's what's been happening, and it's, you know, it's painful when it happens, and everyone's like, why is it happening?

从宏观角度看，你对这个资产类别有基本的分析框架吗？

And then big picture, do you have a fundamental framework for the asset class?

所以，有一部分我觉得比特币有点像黄金，它取决于人们想把它当成什么。

So so part of me thinks Bitcoin's a bit like gold and that it's whatever one wants it to be.

没有公允价值。

There's no fair value.

没有收益。

There's no yield.

没有内在价值。

There's no intrinsic value.

因此，归根结底，它完全取决于叙事和资金流动。

And so in the end, it's really subject to narrative and flow of funds.

但我的看法中是不是遗漏了什么？你认为我忽略了某个基本面的锚定点吗？

But am I missing something am I missing a fundamental anchor point in your view?

比特币有太多含义。

Bitcoin is so many things.

我们可以花很多时间讨论比特币，但可能不该这么做。

We could spend a lot of time talking about Bitcoin and we probably shouldn't.

关于它有很多可读的内容。

There's plenty to read about it.

但我认为比特币可以成为一种区块链或原生数字形式的抵押品，政府无法干预。

But I think that one of the things that Bitcoin can become is it could become a blockchain or digitally native form of collateral that governments really can't interfere with.

黄金就是这样一种东西。

And gold is such a thing.

黄金的价值要高得多。

Gold is worth a lot more.

如果比特币的价值达到黄金的水平，那将是每枚比特币130万美元或400万美元。

If Bitcoin were worth as much as gold, it'd be like 1.3 or $4,000,000 Bitcoin.

30万亿美元

30,000,000,000,000

资产。

assets.

而且不是。

And not.

是的。

Yeah.

对吧？

Right?

所以黄金可以这样用，对吧？

So gold can be used like that, right?

在我们整个职业生涯中，我们经历了一个时期，那时最优质的抵押品可能是美国国债、债券或美元，它们具有可替代性，可以作为抵押品或保证金使用。

We've gone through this period really throughout both of our careers where probably the greatest form of collateral has been US Treasury bills or bonds or dollars, and you could, they're fungible, you can post them as collateral and margin.

但在一个正在分裂的世界中——我认为我们正处在这个阶段——世界上可能正在形成几个势力范围：美国可能主导西半球和欧洲，俄罗斯必须做出选择，而中国将主导东方。我认为，世界上越来越多的政府希望尽可能避免依赖美元体系。

But in a world that's fracturing, which I think we are, we're probably creating a few spheres of influence around the world and US is probably Western Hemisphere and Europe and Russia have to figure it out, and China will have the East, and I think there's a growing interest by lots of governments in the world to not be on the dollar system if they can avoid it.

我认为比特币可以作为一种潜在的绝佳抵押品，能够即时、高效、近乎零成本地转移。

I think Bitcoin serves as a, potentially a great form of collateral that can be moved instantly, effectively, at zero cost, or at close to zero cost.

所以我对区块链感到兴奋，因为我看到了这种世界的可能性——不一定非得是比特币作为这种抵押品来源，而是这项技术本身，但比特币在这个世界中有可能成为这样的抵押品。

And so I got excited about blockchain because I saw the promise of that type of world, not necessarily where Bitcoin is that source of collateral, but that technology, but Bitcoin could become that in this world.

在一个低信任的世界里，你不能仅仅相信把钱投入国债就一定能拿回来，俄罗斯刚刚就发现了这一点——他们无法把钱存入欧洲银行或美国银行，因为这些钱可能被冻结没收。

And so in a low trust world where you can't just trust that if you put your money into treasuries, you're gonna get it back, which Russia just discovered, you know, it can't put their money into European banks or US banks or anything because it can get confiscated.

你可以用黄金，但你实际上必须把黄金存放在某个地方。

You could use gold, but you actually have to store gold somewhere.

你得从地下挖出来，然后再埋回地下，接着要把它与一个代币关联起来，还要确保它的安全，并且要保证世界上任何地方都没人能占有它。

You have to dig it out of the ground, then you have to put it back in the ground, and then you have to associate it with a token, and then you have to secure it, and you have to make sure that no one's gonna take possession of that wherever it is in the world.

而比特币是第一个有可能提供这种全球任何政府都无法触及的抵押品的大规模资产。

Whereas Bitcoin actually is the first big scale asset that could provide that source of collateral that no government in the world can touch.

所以，如果我要展望未来十五年，看看比特币最大的价值可能是什么，我认为这可能是它最大的价值。

So I think if I were to look out over the next fifteen years at what could be its biggest value, I think that could be its biggest value.

现在，它仍然过于波动，还无法大规模承担这一角色，但它正在逐步接近，具备这种可能性。

Now, it's still too volatile, really, to fill that role at scale, but it's getting there, it has that chance.

所以，如果我要思考比特币潜在的巨大成功是什么，那很可能就是它在未来十五年内的前景——虽然在更长的时间跨度内它可能会变得更大更好，但这就是核心所在。

So if I were to think about what's the potential big win for Bitcoin, that's probably what it is over the next fifteen years, Could become bigger and better things over a longer period of time, but that's kind of it.

与此同时，它仍然是一个高度投机的资产，更大的玩家正在进入，一些早期参与者则退出并转向其他领域，这很有趣。

And in the meantime, it's still a highly speculative asset, and bigger players are getting involved, and some of early players are getting out and moving on, and so it's interesting.

是的。

Yes.

非常疯狂。

Wildly.

没错。

Yeah.

再问一个问题。

One more question.

更正式一点的问题。

More formal question.

你在资产管理业务中占据了多个不同位置。

You occupy a bunch of different places in the asset management business.

你有趋势跟踪这一块。

You have the trend following piece.

你还有数字资产部分。

You have the digital piece.

你还有波动性部分。

You have the volatility piece.

如果你要猜测一下，你的业务，或者更广泛地说，资产管理业务在五年或十年后会是什么样子，你有强烈的直觉吗？

If you were to hazard a guess what your business or just kind of writ large, the asset management business looks like in five or ten years, do you have a strong instinct?

在这段时间里会发生很多事情。

Lots can happen in that period of time.

或者我们看到的一个重大变化，从我在Coinbase的视角来看，就是千禧一代和更年轻一代正在从婴儿潮一代手中接替财富，这已经正式开始了。

Or one of the big things, one of the big dynamics that we see happening, and I see from my seat at Coinbase is this wealth transfer from baby boomers to younger people is, it's game on.

是的。

Yeah.

人们投资和交易的方式将会转变——你当然比我年轻，但从我这一代人往上，我认为会更多地转向一种更具投机性的投资心态。

So the way that people invest in trade is gonna shift from certainly, you're younger than I, but certainly from my generation older to, I think more of a, you know, more of a speculative kind of investment mindset.

没错。

Yep.

我认为，未来几年区块链和去中心化金融领域的许多变化将渗透到传统市场中。

I think a lot of the, a lot of what's happening in blockchain and DeFi actually over the next couple years is gonna find its way into traditional markets.

将会有人把各种新的资产作为抵押品，以获得杠杆并承担其他风险。

They're gonna be people posting all sorts of new collateral to get leverage to take other risks.

因此，我认为我们将进入一个非常投机的市场，这意味着高点会更高，低点会更低。

And so I think we're gonna end up in a quite a speculative market, which means the highs will be higher, the lows will be lower.

我认为在未来十年内，我们将面临一场债务可持续性危机。

I do think over the next decade, we're gonna have this debt sustainability crisis.

这场危机可能很快就会到来。

It could be soon.

所以，如果人工智能主题真的崩盘，我认为美国将经历一场严重的衰退。

So if the AI theme really craters, I think we see a huge recession in The US.

随后我们会看到大规模的刺激措施，同时面临债务可持续性的担忧。

And then we see massive stimulus and you have debt sustainability concerns.

而这场危机将越来越像2008年，甚至更严重，因为政府将无法像过去那样救助市场——因为在许多方面，政府本身就是问题的根源。

And that's a crisis that starts looking a lot more like o eight, but even bigger because the the government's not gonna be able to bail out the market the way it has in the past because it's the source of the problem in many respects.

所以我认为这将改变市场的本质，但我认为你会看到更年轻、更具投机倾向的市场。

So I I think that will change the nature of markets, but I so I think you're gonna have younger, more speculative skewed markets.

年轻人有很多钱可以用于投机。

Young people have a lot of money to speculate with.

我认为你会看到大量资金涌入机器人顾问领域，这些年轻人——我们现在正在研究这方面的内容——将转向人工智能来帮助他们做出投资决策。

I think you'll see great move into robo advisors, so a lot of these young people, I mean, we're working on some of this stuff right now, are gonna turn to AI to help them make investment decisions.

我认为这可能会改变某些市场的本质。

I think that'll probably change the nature of some of these markets.

我认为在背后，你会面临一个巨大的债务问题，最终将导致某种形式的通货膨胀。

And I think in the background you're gonna have, yeah, you're gonna have this big debt issue, which ultimately leads to some kind of inflation.

我认为这将改变资产管理行业的本质。

And I think that will change the nature of the asset management industry.

我不认为人工智能会让所有投资者变得过时，归根结底，那些拥有大量财富的人，也许有一天会把钱全交给机器。

I don't think that AI is gonna make all investors obsolete, and at the end of the day, people with a lot of money, maybe someday they just give it to a machine.

我不认为情况会是这样。

I don't think that's the case.

我觉得他们会。

I think they'll.

所以我认为，只要我们保持好奇心和灵活性，像我们这样的公司会表现得非常出色，实现大幅增长。

So I think firms like ours will, as long as we stay curious and nimble, I think we'll do really well, grow a lot.

让我们以经典的快速问答环节结束吧。

Let's finish with the proverbial lightning round.

作为投资者，你最大的优势是什么？

What's your greatest strength as an investor?

我认为我特别擅长多方印证，也就是说，像你一样，我会和很多人交流。

I think I triangulate really well, which just means, probably like you, I talk to a lot of people.

我培养了一群非常聪明且富有洞察力的投资者和交易员，经常与他们交流，同时我也大量阅读。

I've cultivated a group of really smart and insightful investors and traders that I talk to, and I read a lot.

我花三分之一的时间在阅读上，是的。

I spent a third of my time reading Yeah.

三分之一的时间与人交流，三分之一的时间内化思考。

Third of my time talking to people, third of my time internal

嗯。

Yep.

公司或那些公司。

The firm or firms.

对我来说，我不在意一个想法是不是我提出的。

And I think for me, I don't care if an idea was my idea or not.

我只想弄清楚如何为我们投资者赚钱，建立一家优秀的公司，提供出色的想法和服务，所以我认为，如果你长期与一群优秀的人保持交流，你就能大致判断出他们何时过于悲观，能察觉到。

I I really just wanna figure out how to make money for our investors, and build a great firm, and supply great ideas and services, and and so I just think if you have a great group of people that you've talked to over a long period of time, so you can kind of know when they get too bearish, you can sense it.

当他们过于乐观时，你也能察觉到，就像我们之前讨论市场情绪时那样，你自己也能感受到。

When they get too bullish, You you kind of know it and you can feel that in yourself like we're talking about with market terms.

所以我认为，如果你在这方面投入大量精力，并且像我一样是个好的倾听者，你就能很好地整合信息。

So I think if you do that, if you invest a lot into that and then our good listener, which I am, you can triangulate information well.

我认为写作对我帮助极大。

And think my writing has helped me enormously.

我确信它也对你有帮助，当你给自己施加每个周末都要发表的压力时，这既是福也是祸。

I'm sure it's helped you When you put upon yourself the pressure to publish every weekend, it's a blessing and a curse.