美联储的走钢丝：通胀、劳动力与未来之路

美国经济目前正航行在复杂水域，通胀仍处高位，劳动力市场疲软，政策环境不断变化，使得前景和美联储的下一步行动充满不确定性。

The US economy is navigating some tricky waters right now with still high inflation, a weakening labor market, and an evolving policy landscape making the outlook and the Fed's next steps quite uncertain.

今天的嘉宾是高盛副主席、达拉斯联储前主席罗伯特·卡普兰。

My guest today is Robert Kaplan, vice chairman of Goldman Sachs and former president of the Dallas Fed.

罗布，欢迎回到《对话》节目。

Rob, welcome back to exchanges.

很高兴参与讨论。

Good to be with you.

那么罗布，让我们直接从美联储谈起吧。

So, Rob, let's start right in with the Fed.

鲍威尔主席在上次联邦公开市场委员会会议后，就12月降息前景发表了相当鹰派的言论。

Chair Powell made some pretty hawkish comments after the last FOMC about the prospect of a December rate cut.

这让一些人感到意外。

It surprised some people.

我们高盛研究部仍预期12月会有一次降息。

We, in Goldman Sachs Research, are still expecting a cut in December.

市场似乎对此不太确信。

The market seems somewhat less convinced.

你对这些评论有何解读？

What's your read on those comments?

在10月会议之前，我一直在说市场对12月进一步降息的预期——在我看来概率实在太高了。

So you may know going into the October meeting, I had been saying that the market expectation of a further rate cut in December, the probabilities of that rate cut were from to my eye way too high.

这并不意味着美联储不会在12月降息，但我认为这将是一个艰难得多的决策。

It doesn't mean the Fed won't cut rates in December, but I think it's a much tougher decision.

所以我很高兴杰伊在新闻发布会上稍微平衡了一下决策，给美联储更多时间来真正讨论这个问题。

And so I was glad that Jay, in the press conference, balanced the decision a little bit more and left the Fed more time to really debate this out.

而且你会看到更多关于委员会内部存在分歧的报道。

And you see more articles about a split in the committee.

这是可以理解的。

It's understandable.

那么分歧点在哪里呢？

So what's the split about?

劳动力市场疲软。

The labor market is weak.

我们都知道这一点。

We know that.

Jan Hatzius非常精辟地解释了这种疲软现象，招聘速度已降至停滞水平。

And Jan Hatzius has very eloquently explained that weakness and hiring is down to stall speed.

为什么会这样？

And why is that?

有三个主要阻力正在造成这种疲软。

There's three big headwinds that are creating that weakness.

首先，短期内关税政策在我看来正在减缓增长。

One, tariffs in the near term, at least, in my opinion, are slowing growth.

我们可以深入讨论更多细节，但就本次会议目的而言，关税正导致大企业缩减业务规模。

And we could go through much more detail, but for purpose of this call, they're having the effect of causing big businesses to do somewhat less.

关税对小企业的影响更为显著，我们正目睹这一现象。

They're having a more pronounced effect on small businesses, and we're seeing that.

此外，不仅仅是宽松移民政策的终止——我个人认为这可能是件非常有益的事。

In addition, it's not just the cutoff of lax immigration, which I think is probably a very constructive thing.

这个国家有1200万到1500万工人，他们构成了建筑、农业和服务业的重要部分，这些人目前处于临时身份状态。

There are 12 to 15,000,000 workers in this country who make up a big chunk of construction agriculture services who are here on provisional status.

他们中绝大多数并非非法居留，但都持有某种临时身份。

They're not here illegally, the great bulk of them, but they're on some kind of temporary status.

其中许多人都不确定自己是否会被允许留下。

And many of them are unsure whether they're gonna be allowed to stay.

我们听到雇主反映，这些人中有很多都不来上班了。

Many of them I hear from employers we hear are not showing up at work.

他们也不送孩子去上学。

They're not sending their kids to school.

他们肯定也不会去商场购物。

They're definitely not shopping at the mall.

这造成了收入损失。

That's a loss of income.

所以这两件事都是逆风因素。

So those two things are headwinds.

而过去45天我们又遇到了新的逆风——政府停摆，这显然会减少收入和抑制增长。

And then we got a new headwind over the last forty five days, which was the government shutdown, which obviously reduces incomes, reduces growth.

因此看到经济如此疲软也就不足为奇了。

And so it's understandable that you see a lot of sluggishness.

与此同时，我们还有三股顺风将延续到2026年。

At the same time, we've got three tailwinds coming into 2026.

其一是税收激励政策，包括小费税、加班税优惠，以及明年初将实施的加速折旧政策。

One is tax incentives, tax on tips, tax on overtime, accelerated depreciation kicking in early next year.

其二是监管改革已启动但尚未全面发力。

You've got regulatory reform, which has started but hasn't reached full throttle.

这将促进经济增长。

That will help growth.

其三是我们反复讨论的AI数据中心电力热潮，这正在为增长提供强劲动力。

You have the obvious AI data center power boom that we've talked so much about is fueling growth.

而现在，作为逆风之一的政府停摆问题，幸运地即将消失。

And now one of the headwinds which is the government shutdown, is gonna fortunately go away.

它可能不会变成顺风，但会减弱那股逆风。

It may not become a tailwind, but it'll reduce that headwind.

因此，我不太确定劳动力市场实际疲软程度与这些我们明年可能看到的逆风和顺风相比如何。

So it's unclear to me how weak the labor market actually is versus these headwinds and tailwinds we might see affirming into next year.

这是一方面的情况。

And so that's on the one hand.

另一方面，简而言之，通胀率比目标高出75到100个基点。

On the other hand, to put it in short, inflation's running 75, a 100 basis points above target.

两年零九个月到三年之间。

Two and three quarters to three years.

关于通胀是否已经部分嵌入经济中，存在大量争论。

Enormous amount of debate as to whether inflation is already embedded in some of that.

也许这是暂时的，或许会随着时间的推移而消退。

Maybe it's temporary, and maybe it'll elapse over time.

但我可以告诉你，与企业交流时，在这个问题上存在很多分歧。

But I can tell you talking to businesses, there's a lot of disagreement on that issue.

与我交谈的许多企业认为，很多关税对价格的实际影响要到2026年才会显现。

And many businesses I talked to think that a lot of the tariffs won't actually be felt in terms of price until 2026.

所以美联储在这两方面都存在争议。

So the Fed's got a debate both sides of this.

两方面都不明朗，而且他们正接近中性利率，这就是为什么这场辩论的紧迫性加剧了。

Both are unclear, and they're getting close to neutral, which is why the urgency of this debate heightens.

最终，鲍威尔在那些言论中给了更多观望的空间，基本上是要等待看看事态如何发展。

And ultimately, Powell gave more room then, basically, in those comments to wait and see how some of this evolves.

是的。

Yeah.

我还想补充一点。

And I would actually add one thing.

有时团队的意见很重要，而他必须反映这些意见。

There are times where the views of the group matter, and he's got to reflect those.

我认为，当我们面临像即将到来的12月那样令人纠结的决策时，正反双方都有合理论点，鲍威尔主席的意愿将产生超乎寻常的影响力。

I think when you go into an agonizing decision like we're heading into December where there are pro and cons arguments and there are legitimate arguments on both sides, what chair Powell wants to do will have outsized influence.

而且委员会中有许多人将参与投票。

And that there are many people on the committee that will vote.

他们可能是55比45，或60比40的比例。

They might be 55, 45, sixty, forty.

如果他强烈倾向于某一方，他们很可能会支持他。

And if he feels strongly one way or the other, they'll be inclined to back him.

我猜测，如果他尚未决定要采取什么行动，这不会让我感到意外。

And my guess is it wouldn't surprise me if he hasn't decided yet what he wants to do.

这将是一个直到12月才会做出的临场决定。

It's gonna be a game time decision right up until December.

罗布，这里面有很多内容需要梳理，我想就你刚才提到的许多事情追问几个后续问题。

There's a lot to unpack there, Rob, and I wanna ask you some follow-up questions about many things you just said.

不过我们先退一步来看。

But let's just take a step back.

正如你提到的，政府停摆是有记录以来最长的一次。

As you mentioned, government shutdown, it's been the longest shutdown on record.

这周它已经结束了。

It's come to an end this week.

但与此同时，出现了数据真空期。

But in the meantime, there has been this vacuum of data.

因此这本身肯定让美联储的决策过程变得更加复杂。

And so that in itself must be complicating the Fed's decision making process.

请从您作为美联储前主席的经验出发，跟我们谈谈。

Talk to us a bit from your experience as a former president of the Fed.

正如您刚才指出的，美联储如何在缺乏数据的情况下应对这些逆风和顺风？

How does the Fed even go about navigating this lack of data amid these headwinds and tailwinds as you just pointed out?

美联储非常依赖数据。

So the Fed loves data.

美联储主要由经济学博士领导，只有少数商界人士。

The Fed is led by predominantly PhD economists, just a few business people.

他们喜欢数据是因为可以将其套入模型，这些数据非常有价值。

And they like data because they can fit it into models, and that data is very valuable.

它能验证你从商界听到的消息以及你在工作中观察到的情况。

And it confirms what you're hearing from business and what you're seeing in your own work.

而现在他们缺少这些数据。

And they don't have that.

我猜测当我们最终获得数据时，如果数据显示出我早先提到的经济疲软迹象，我也不会感到意外，但他们目前无从知晓。

My guess is when we do get data, it wouldn't surprise me if that data confirms the sluggishness I talked about earlier, but they don't know.

因此这让他们的工作更加困难。

And so that makes their job harder.

这意味着他们必须更多地参考私营部门的数据来源。

That means they've gotta do more to look at private sources.

他们必须更多地与企业沟通。

They've gotta talk to businesses more.

这些都是非正式的信息。

That's anecdotes.

如果能获得更全面的数据来验证这些传闻，肯定会大有帮助。

It would sure help to get more comprehensive data to confirm those anecdotes.

我想再详细请教一下你提到的劳动力市场问题。

Me just ask you a bit more about the labor market, which you've mentioned.

但归根结底，听你谈论这个问题时，你认为这主要是周期性因素还是结构性因素？

But ultimately, as I hear you talk about it, are you thinking that this is mostly cyclical factors or more structural?

罗伯，我在你的评论中听到了两种观点。

I heard both, Rob, entering into your comments.

你确实听到了两种观点。

You did hear both.

持续到2026年。

Into 2026.

你听到两种观点是因为我认为目前尚不明确。

You heard both because I think it's unclear.

对我来说也不清楚究竟是哪种情况。

It's unclear to me, which it is.

确实如此。

It really is.

而且我认为，和我交谈过的许多人也清楚地认识到了这一点。

And I think it's clear and clear to many others that I speak with.

我没有听到企业告诉我业务一落千丈的情况。

I don't hear businesses tell me that business has fallen off a cliff.

我听说业务有些疲软，但几乎所有我接触的企业和核查都表明业务还算可以，虽不突出。

I hear it's sluggish, but almost every business I talk to and checkings I do suggest that business is okay, not great.

所以这感觉不像是周期性的放缓。

And so it doesn't feel like a cyclical slowing.

我确实听到了很多匹配问题。

I do hear lots of matching issues.

比如大学毕业生很难找到工作，但同时我也听到很多企业招不到人的职位空缺。

IE college graduates are struggling to find jobs, but also I hear lots of open jobs that businesses can't fill.

问题是求职者不愿意去做窗户安装这类工作。

The problem is the people that are looking for jobs don't want they don't wanna be window installers.

所以我们确实存在匹配问题。

So we do have a matching problem.

因此在我看来，如果很多疲软现象都与匹配问题相关，我不认为货币政策是解决匹配问题的工具。

And so to me, if it turns out that a lot of this weakness is matching related, I don't know that monetary policy is the tool to deal with a matching issue.

我认为部分疲软是由于经济放缓，而政府停摆进一步加剧了这种情况。

I think some of the weakness is slowing, and the shutdown has further exacerbated that.

但政府停摆是暂时性因素，终将消退，而且明年还会有这些顺风因素。

But again, the shutdown is a temporary factor that's gonna recede, and then you've got these tailwinds going into next year.

所以情况很复杂。

So it's confusing.

对你的问题简短回答是：我不知道。

And the short answer to your question is, I don't know.

这就是问题所在。

And that's the problem.

我认为目前还没有很强的确定性。

I don't think there's great conviction.

那么这就变成了一项风险管理操作。

So then it becomes a risk management exercise.

明白。

Understood.

按照你的观点，我们现在已经进入第三季度财报季相当一段时间了。

And to your point, we are now a fair way into the third quarter earnings seasons.

财报表现相当不错。

Earnings have been quite good.

因此并没有太多迹象表明企业正在走向崩溃，这不仅在美国如此，全球范围内也是如此。

So there aren't too many signs that companies are falling off the cliff, and that's true not just in The US but globally.

是的。

Yeah.

为了进一步强调这一点，在已宣布的大规模裁员案例中，许多都伴随着稳健的销售业绩。

And just to further reinforce that, in the prominent cases of large layoffs announced, a number of them have been accompanied by solid sales.

对吧？

Okay?

出于这个目的，我不会提及具体公司名称，但你可以想到一些例子。

I won't mention names of companies for this purpose, but you can think of some of the examples.

这是紧缩开支等措施，而非周期性的放缓。

It's belt tightening, other things, not a cyclical slowing.

明白了。

Understood.

但即便我们考虑这些盈利情况，当你谈到已经开始提及的通胀问题时，我们的总体印象是，到目前为止企业大多在自行消化部分成本，比如今年备受关注的关税成本。

But even as we think about those earnings, when we think about the inflation question that you've already begun speaking about, ultimately, it's our impression that companies have largely so far been absorbing some costs like the tariff costs that have been such a big concern this year.

但企业是否会在某个节点开始将这些成本转嫁给消费者？

But is there a point at which the companies start passing those costs onto consumers?

这是否意味着我们应该比市场目前对未来的通胀更为担忧？

And is that a reason to be more concerned than maybe we are the markets are about inflation ahead?

看起来市场现在确实想把通胀担忧暂时搁置，但这是否为时过早？

Seems like the market really wants to put inflation concerns on the back burner at this point, but is that too premature?

与我交谈过的大多数CEO确实这么认为。

Most of the CEOs I talked to, yes.

许多企业表示他们正在从利润中消化这部分成本，并计划短期内通过提价来弥补，同时进行成本紧缩。

Many have said they're taking it out of margin and they're gonna try to get it back in price in the near time they're doing belt tightening.

对一些小企业而言，情况可能更为严峻，他们无法从利润中消化成本，正艰难抉择是否还能维持未来一两年的经营。

For some of the small businesses, it's probably more dire than that and that they don't have the option to take it out of margin, and they're struggling with whether they're gonna stay in business for the next year or two.

许多其他企业向我解释，在关税实施前曾进行过库存补充。

Many other businesses explained to me there was a restocking pre tariff implementation.

我们现在正处于去库存阶段，但正在逐步完成这一过程。

We're now in the destocking phase, but we're getting through destocking.

不少企业向我透露，他们认为到2026年才会看到更多关税带来的影响。

And many businesses have talked to me about the fact that they believe into 2026, that's when you'll see more tariff impact.

我们内部经济学家的观点是，可能已经完成了50%到60%的调整过程。

Our own economists have a view that maybe we're half or 60% of the way through.

这是另一个需要考虑的因素。

And that's another one.

老实说，我也不知道答案。

The honest answer is I don't know.

我也注意到服务业企业向我反映，部分成本上涨正逐渐渗透到他们的业务中。

I'm also seeing service sector businesses telling me that some of these cost increases are bleeding into their business.

此外，这种影响也正蔓延至服务业。

Also, it's bleeding into services.

你可能还记得，服务业通胀率一直维持在3%到3.5%的中段水平，且具有粘性。

So you may remember services has been running about mid threes, three and a half percent, and is sticky.

去年通胀的改善很大程度上源于商品领域的反通胀。

A lot of the improvement of inflation last year has been goods disinflation.

关税政策打断了这种商品反通胀趋势。

The tariffs have interrupted that goods disinflation.

这就是为什么我们目前处于横盘状态，而且这种状态可能还会持续一段时间。

And so that's the reason why we're going sideways, and we're gonna go sideways probably for a while.

许多人认为明年下半年将开始出现反通胀效应。

And many argue that latter half of next year, you'll start to see disinflation kick in.

但公平地说，这个预测存在跳跃性。

But in fairness, that's a leap.

这需要很大的信心飞跃，我认为这其中存在不确定性。

That's a leap of faith, and I think there's uncertainty about that.

是啊。

So yeah.

所以看起来你似乎不太确信我们应该对通胀不那么担忧。

So it seems like you are maybe not as convinced that inflation is something we should be less worried about.

确实不确信。

I'm not.

正因如此，我之前提到的所有因素都变得更加重要。

And so here's why all this I mentioned earlier gets heightened.

如果利率在5.25%到5.5%之间，我们就有很大的降息空间。

If we were at five and a quarter, five and a half, you know, got lots of room to cut.

我个人观点——你之前也听我说过——中性名义联邦基金利率应该是通胀率加上实际联邦基金利率。

My own view, and you've heard me say this before, is the neutral nominal Fed funds rate.

它就是通胀率与实际联邦基金利率之和。

It's inflation plus a real Fed funds rate.

目前普遍共识认为，实际中性联邦基金利率介于0.75%到1%之间，我尚未听到太多反对这一观点的论据。

There's pretty good consensus that the real neutral Fed funds rate is somewhere between three quarters of percent 1%, And I haven't heard a lot of counterarguments to that.

那么问题就在于，基础通胀率究竟是多少？

So then the question is, what's the underlying inflation rate?

那些认为中性利率更接近2.75%的人，他们假设通胀率会达到2%。

Those who say the neutral rate is closer to two and three quarters, they're assuming inflation gets to 2%.

但问题在于当前通胀率并未达到2%。

The problem is it's not at 2% right now.

这个情况已经持续好几年了。

It hasn't been for a few years.

实际通胀率在2.75%到3%之间。

It's a two and three quarters to three.

因此我认为当前名义中性利率约为3.5%到3.75%。

And so that makes me believe that currently the nominal neutral rate is about three and a half, three and three quarters.

而美联储当前利率正处于3.75%到4%的区间。

The Fed is at three and three quarters to four right now.

当通胀率远高于目标水平时，你真的希望保持中性立场吗？

Do you really wanna be at neutral with inflation running this much above target?

我认为，以我之前的职位来看，这会使我感到非常不安，并让我渴望对劳动力市场现状比现在更有把握。

And I think that would, in my former seat, make me very uncomfortable and would make me really wanna be confident, more confident than I am right now about what's going on in the labor market.

高盛研究部预计2026年还会有几次降息。

So Goldman Research is expecting a couple more cuts in 2026.

如果我没看错屏幕的话，市场预计2026年还会有三次降息。

The market, I think, if I checked my screen correctly, is expecting three more cuts in 2026.

考虑到所有这些因素，你认为相对于这些预期，风险点在哪里？

Given all this, I mean, where do you think the risk lies relative to those expectations?

你可能知道过去几个月我一直在说——虽然不确定——但我倾向于认为实际降息次数会更少。

So you may know I've been saying for the last couple of months, I probably I don't know, but I would take the under.

我持此观点的唯一原因是，在我看来美联储应该或可能进行两到三次降息的情况只有一种。

And the reason I would take the under is the only way that I see the Fed doing or should be doing two to three more cuts.

唯一能让我愿意支持更多降息的理由是，如果确信我们正面临比当前所见更为严重的劳动力市场疲软。

The only reason that I would be willing to do this is if I were convinced that we were in the midst of a very severe labor market weakening, more severe even than it appears to me today, that would cause me to cut more.

或者在未来，我们将在通胀率方面取得实质性改善。

Or over the horizon, we're gonna make real improvement on the inflation rate.

所以这个2.75%到3%的区间将会下降。

So this two and three quarters to three is gonna come down.

我需要被其中一种或两种情况说服。

I've gotta be convinced at about one of those or both.

而目前我还没有被说服，这就是为什么我一直主张。

And at the moment, I'm not, which is why I've been arguing.

要谨慎。

Be careful.

我认为市场高估了降息的可能性。

I think the market is overestimating the probability of rate cuts.

有意思。

Interesting.

让我稍等一下，罗布，我想问你一个当前非常热门的话题——美联储的独立性。

Let me take a second, Rob, and ask you about a very topical subject at this point in time, Fed independence.

显然，本届政府明显倾向于降低利率。

Obviously, this administration has a clear preference for lower interest rates.

就你所观察到的，这是否对美联储当前的决策过程产生了任何影响？

Has that had any bearing on the decision making process the Fed at this point from what you can observe?

可能在边际上产生了一些影响。

It probably has had a little bit of impact on the margin.

我知道在美联储内部，人们正在尽最大努力屏蔽政治压力和影响，我认为他们做到了。

I know around the table at the Fed, people are doing their level best to screen out political pressure, political influence, and I think they've done that.

不过我认为这一切将在12月达到紧要关头。

I think this is all coming to a head though in December.

面对这种压力，我认为他们会竭尽全力将其排除在外。

And that that pressure, I think they're gonna do their level best to screen it out.

但这是个艰难的决定。

But this is a tough decision.

即使没有这种压力，如果我现在仍在这个位置上，12月的决定也会是个令人煎熬的选择。

Even without that pressure, I would find the December decision if I were in my this is an agonizing decision.

因此在我看来，他们面临的困境在于从风险管理角度考虑，一种观点是跳过12月不加息。

And so for me, what they're gonna struggle with is from a risk management point of view, one argument would be skip December.

如果事实证明劳动力市场——我判断错误且劳动力市场比预期疲软，我们可以在1月份采取行动。

If it turns out the labor market, I'm wrong and the labor market is weaker, then we'll act in January.

然而，舆论反弹和紧张局势将会升级。

However, the backlash and the tension will escalate.

显然，我认为他们必须排除这些干扰。

Obviously, I think they've gotta screen that out.

问题是如果12月真的降息——虽然我仍认为他们更有可能这么做。

The problem is if you do cut in December, which I still think is I agree is more likely than not that they will.

问题在于按我的评估，现在利率已处于中性水平。

The problem is now I'm at neutral in my opinion.

而如果明年劳动力市场数据向好且通胀比预期顽固，我的立场就会被动。

And if it turns out that we get affirming in the labor market next year and inflation turns out to be stickier, I'm out of position.

我不希望处于中性立场。

I don't wanna be at neutral.

我希望至少保持适度紧缩。

I wanna be at least modestly restrictive.

所以我说这是个令人痛苦的决定。

So that's why I say it's agonizing decision.

正如你所说，政治因素在他们心中，但肯定不是主要驱动力

And as you said, the politics are on their minds, but certainly not the driving

因素。

factor.

在他们脑海深处，而非首要考虑。

In the back of their minds, not the front of their minds.

没错。

Right.

但我们很快会有新的美联储领导层。

But we will have new fed leadership soon.

到那时，我们对美联储独立性的担忧可能会加剧，这种担忧应该加剧吗？

And so at that point, our concerns about Fed independence likely to grow, should they grow?

你是否从那个角度对美联储未来的决策感到担忧？

Are you concerned at all looking ahead at Fed decision making from that perspective?

听着，我认为当我与全球资本配置者和投资者交谈时，对美联储独立性的担忧无疑已经加剧。

Listen, I think concerns when I talk to capital allocators, investors globally, There there's no question that concerns about Fed independence have grown.

这可能是黄金价格上涨50%以上的原因之一。

It may be one of the reasons why gold has rallied 50% plus.

这可能解释了我们正在看到的一些现象。

It may explain some of the things that we're seeing.

我想你之前听我说过，即使有新主席上任，美联储在制定货币政策决策时的独立性文化依然非常强大。

I think you've heard me say before, even with a new chair, the culture of independence inside the Fed on setting monetary policy decisions is very strong.

因此我认为要改变这种文化需要付出很大努力。

And so I think it would take a lot to change that culture.

我的意思是，需要大量的人事变动。

I mean, a lot of personnel changes.

我确实相信监管并非政治独立，而且多年来一直如此。

I do believe regulation is not politically independent and it hasn't been for many years.

所以这是合理的。

And so that makes sense.

我认为那里不会出现大问题。

I don't think there's gonna be a big issue there.

我认为你可能会看到资产负债表管理方式的一些变化，新美联储主席这样做不会让我感到惊讶。

I think you may see some changes on the way the balance sheet is managed and that it would not shock me with a new Fed chair.

关于延长美联储投资组合平均期限的讨论将会更加活跃。

There'll be more active discussion about extending the average maturity of the Fed portfolio.

换句话说，减少短期持有，增加长期购买。

In other words, owning less short, buying more long.

美联储目前完全没有走这条路，但换了新主席后，我猜会重新考虑这个问题。

The Fed is not going that way at all so far right now, but with a new Fed share, I would guess that'll be revisited.

我并不为此感到困扰。

I'm not troubled by that.

我认为这实际上可能是一场建设性的辩论。

I I think that might actually be a constructive debate.

但在制定货币政策方面，你需要有重大的人事变动才能改变我认为仍然活跃存在的独立性。

But on setting monetary policy, you would need meaningful changes in personnel in order to change the independence that I think is still actively there.

那么，罗伯，总结一下，你谈到了很多相互矛盾的潮流，不同力量朝不同方向拉扯。

So, Rob, just to conclude, you've talked a lot about cross currents, different forces pulling different directions.

未来几个月你最关注哪些将对美联储决策产生重要影响的因素？

What are you watching most closely over the next couple of months that will be important for the Fed's decision making?

所以我真的会努力去感受政府停摆结束后的情况。

So I'm gonna really be trying to get a feel for the end of the shutdown.

政府工作人员开始领到工资，航班中断情况开始平息。

Government workers starting to get paid, flight disruptions starting to calm down.

这会产生什么影响？解决这些问题可能需要多长时间？

What's the impact and how long is the imprint of that likely is gonna take for that to resolve?

我预计这可能意味着未来几个月经济会偏弱，但这在我的预料之中。

And I'm expecting it means that maybe the next couple of months are gonna be on the weak side, but I'm expecting that.

所以我正在密切关注这一点。

So I'm watching that.

积极与企业沟通时，我同时也在关注企业和消费者支出是否在减弱？

Talking actively to business, what I'm watching for also is business and consumer spending getting weaker?

企业活动是否在减弱？

Is business weakening?

要理解消费者分为两个群体，中低收入群体和更富裕群体，他们的消费方式不同，我正在观察这一点。

Understanding there's two groups of consumers, low moderate income and more affluent, and they're spending in different ways watching that.

然后我会非常仔细地观察并与企业交流。

And then I'm gonna watch very carefully and talk to businesses.

他们看到了什么？

What are they seeing?

不仅在商品领域，更是在服务领域，因为这是经济的主体部分。

Not only in goods, but in services more because that's the bulk of the economy.

他们在成本方面看到了什么？他们对价格的看法如何？

What are they seeing in terms of costs and what is their thinking on prices?

因此，至少在货币政策方面，这些就是我将会关注的内容。

And and so those are the kinds of things, at least in regard to monetary policy, I'm gonna be looking at.

非常感谢，Rob。

Thanks so much, Rob.

我们有过很多次对话，每一次我都不止学到一点，而是收获颇丰。

We have lots of conversations, you and I, and every single time I learn not just one thing, but several things.

非常感谢你再次加入我们。

Thanks so much for joining us again.

很高兴和你交谈，Allison。

Good to talk to you, Allison.

谢谢。

Thank you.

感谢收听本期高盛对话栏目，本期录制于2025年11月12日星期三。

Thanks for listening to this episode of Goldman Sachs exchanges, which is recorded on Wednesday, 11/12/2025.

我是Allison Nathan。

I'm Allison Nathan.

本文所表达的观点和意见截至发布日期可能随时变更，且不一定反映高盛集团或其附属机构的机构观点。

The opinions and views expressed herein are as of the date of publication subject to change without notice and may not necessarily reflect the institutional views of Goldman Sachs or its affiliates.

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