是什么推动了交易热潮的兴起？

尽管2025年面临地缘政治不确定性、关税上调和增长放缓，我们仍见证了并购活动的激增。

Despite a year marked by geopolitical uncertainty, higher tariffs, and slowing growth, we've seen a surge in deal making activity in 2025.

那么，为什么并购市场如此具有韧性呢？

So why has the M and A market been so resilient?

这种当前的并购浪潮能在2026年持续下去吗？

And can this current wave of M and A activity continue in 2026?

为了深入分析交易现状并展望未来路径，我邀请了高盛全球并购业务负责人斯特凡·菲尔德格韦斯加入讨论。

To help unpack the state of deals and chart the road ahead, I'm joined by Goldman Stefan Feldgweis, head of global mergers and acquisitions in the firm's global banking and markets business.

斯特凡，欢迎再次做客我们的节目。

Stefan, welcome back to the program.

谢谢你的邀请。

Thanks for having me.

斯特凡，一年前我们交谈时，并购市场刚刚开始显现复苏迹象。

Stefan, when we spoke about a year ago, the M and A market was just beginning to show signs of life.

但自那以来，我们实际上面临了一系列逆风因素。

But since then, we've actually had a long list of headwinds.

我们经历了自由日，带来了更高的关税，以及对关税急剧上涨的诸多担忧。

We've had Liberation Day that brought higher tariffs and a lot of concerns about sharply higher tariffs.

还存在更广泛的政策不确定性以及宏观不确定性。

There's been broader policy uncertainty, macro uncertainty.

而最近，当然，我们经历了美国历史上最长的政府停摆。

And most recently, of course, we've had the longest US government shutdown in history.

尽管面临诸多逆风，并购活动实际上显著增加了。

So a lot of headwinds, but the M and A activity has actually picked up very sizably.

那么，鉴于这些逆风，为什么会这样呢？

So why is that given all of these headwinds?

这很有趣。

It's interesting.

实际上非常有趣。

It's actually very interesting.

正如你所说，今年第一季度，在选举后进入2025年之际，存在相当大的不确定性，人们不确定局势将如何发展。

The first quarter of the year, as you said, there was a fair degree of uncertainty post election heading into 2025 where people weren't sure how it would play out.

因此，第一季度相对平静，我想这么说。

And so the first quarter was relatively quiet, I would say.

四月在解放日之后非常平静。

April was extremely quiet post Liberation Day.

从四月进入五月，你开始看到交易量激增，尤其是在大型交易方面，而我认为过去三个月进入秋季和冬季的活跃程度已经堪比2021年，那是最活跃的一年。

Heading out of April into May, you started to see a crescendo of transactions, particularly on the larger side, and then I would say the last three months heading into the fall and the winter has rivaled what we saw in 2021, which has been the most active.

事实上，在我的职业生涯中，我从未想过我们会回望并看到一个像2021年那样活跃的时期。

In fact, in my career, I did not think we would look back and see a period as active as we saw in 2021.

上个季度，过去三四个月的活跃程度已经堪比2021年。

The last quarter, the last three, four months have rivaled 2021.

如果现在纵观全年，交易额超过100亿美元的交易数量比2024年增长了100%。

And if you look at the year in total now, the number of $10,000,000,000 transactions is up a 100% over 2024.

因此，这不仅仅是一个活跃的年份。

And so it's not just become an active year.

它已经成为历史上最活跃的年份之一。

It's become one of the most active years in history.

考虑到我们经历的所有逆风因素，是什么推动了这一点呢？

What is driving that, again, given all these headwinds we've experienced?

确实存在一些逆风因素。

So there are definitely headwinds.

地缘政治风险依然存在。

There's still geopolitical risk.

利率仍然可能抑制市场活动。

There's still interest rates that can restrain things.

仍然存在黑天鹅风险，而且其中一些已经发生了。

There's still black swan risks, and some of those have happened.

全球监管方面的不确定性依然存在。

There's still uncertainty around regulation around the world.

尽管如此，疫情后企业为重新定位业务（不是为了未来两年，而是为了未来二三十年）所面临的战略需求，在过去四五年里受到了逆风的严重阻碍。

That being said, the strategic imperatives coming out of COVID to reposition businesses, not for the next two years, but for the next twenty or thirty, were severely challenged by the headwinds, I would say, in the prior four or five years.

进入2025年，资本市场全面开放，融资能力增强，公共和私人资本无处不在，最重要的是，能够高效推进项目。

Coming into the 2025, capital markets wide open, the ability to finance, the ubiquity of public and private capital, and most importantly, the ability to get things done.

你看到许多非常大型的交易完成了，无论它们是跨境交易、复杂交易，甚至是不敏感行业的交易。

You saw a number of very large, whether they be cross border or complex or even insensitive industries, transactions get completed.

因此，首席执行官和董事会在股东的推动下，告诉他们：如果某项交易在长期战略上有意义，至少应该去考虑一下。

So CEOs and boards, prompted in a large part by their shareholders, were saying to them, if there's something that makes long term strategic sense, you should be at least looking at it.

于是，那些一度搁置的项目被重新拿出来审视，你看到的不仅是公司开始审视这些交易，还意识到它们能够完成这些交易，这就是为什么你看到了如此多的交易。

And so files that were dormant for a period of time were pulled out and looked at, and what you saw is not only did companies look at those transactions, but recognize they could get them done, and that's why you've seen such a large number of transactions.

你提到了巨型交易的激增。

So you mentioned this surge in mega deals.

这背后具体是什么在推动呢？

What's driving that in particular?

实际上，所有规模的交易都在增长。

Well, it's really all sizes.

正如你所知，我们主要关注5亿美元及以上的交易，这类交易总量增长了20%到30%。

And so we focus most, as you know, on transactions $500,000,000 and up, and those are up 20 to 30% in total.

正如我所说，巨型交易增长了100%。

Mega transactions, as I mentioned, up a 100%.

推动这些交易的原因是，过去一段时间，某些行业由于需要巨额融资，大型交易难以完成。

What's driving those is for a period of time, there were large transactions, either in certain industries, just given the need for very large financings, that were difficult to get done.

无论是卖家的接受度、买家的进取心，还是买家在融资、监管和地缘政治方面认为时机成熟，各种因素终于汇聚在一起。

And whether that was receptivity by sellers, whether that was the aggressiveness of buyers, or whether that was just the timing where buyers thought that they could get things done from a financing, from a regulatory, from a geopolitical perspective, the fingers have met.

如果看看2021年的差异，当时每个市场、每个机会都是可操作的。

And if you look at the differences, 2021, every market, every opportunity was actionable in 2021.

股权市场全面开放，债务市场全面开放，并购市场也全面开放。

The equity markets were wide open, the debt markets were wide open, and the M and A markets were wide open.

这是我职业生涯中第一次看到所有市场整整一年都全面开放。

That's the first time in my career where I saw all markets wide open for an entire year.

2025年的情况并非如此，但2025年确实见证了私人信贷和公共信贷市场相对开放，IPO市场也有所回升，虽然尚未恢复到以往水平，但比之前强劲得多。

That wasn't the case in 2025, but certainly for the 2025, you've seen relatively wide open private credit and public credit markets, and you've seen also the IPO markets coming back, not back to where they were, but certainly much more robust than they were.

同时，战略上对规模的需求与疫情后企业合并的动因也再次交汇在一起。

And you've seen the fingers meet on strategic imperative of scale and the reasons that we saw again coming out of COVID for companies to get together.

所以你说的是所有规模。

So you said all sizes.

那行业或地区呢？

What about industries or geographies?

随着这一活动的增加，你观察到了哪些具体趋势？

Are there particular trends you've observed as this activity has increased?

确实，一些多年来持续存在的趋势仍在延续。

There's certainly been some trends that have continued from what we've seen for several years.

因此，科技、媒体和电信领域的整合仍在继续，同时你也能看到大量新公司的涌现和崭新技术的诞生。

So consolidation in technology, media, and telecom continues, and you just see incredible new company formation, see incredible new technologies.

我们接下来要谈谈人工智能。

We're gonna talk about AI.

人工智能不仅仅是那些专门做AI的公司——在AI公司本身，你并没有看到很多并购活动，但所有与AI相关的事物都在发生。

AI is not just AI companies where you haven't seen a lot of M and A specifically in AI companies, but everything related to AI.

这可能包括软件。

So that might be software.

也可能涉及房地产、数据中心、半导体，所有这些行业、电力供应商，都因人工智能而出现了整合。

That might be real estate, that might be data centers, that might be semiconductors, all those industries, power suppliers, all those industries have seen consolidation, again, as a derivative of AI.

所以，我所谓的AI领域无疑非常活跃，我们显然还处于AI时代的早期阶段。

So the what I'll call is the AI universe is certainly very, very active, and we're in the early innings, obviously, the AI generation.

我们预计这里还会出现更多活动。

We would expect to see more there.

生物科技领域仍在持续。

Biotech continues.

大型制药公司寻找下一个分子，这一趋势仍在继续。

Large cap pharma companies looking for the next molecule, that continues.

即使在传统的现金流业务中，也能看到这种现象，无论是工业公司，还是消费零售领域，都出现了大量活动。

Even in traditional cash flow businesses, see it, whether it be industrial companies, you've seen a lot of activity in consumer retail.

你看到欧洲的金融机构进行了大量交易。

You've seen financial institutions in Europe doing a large number of transactions.

因此，我想说的是，这种活跃度非常广泛，这也是为什么交易数量屡创新高的原因。

So I would just say it's very broad, and that's why you're seeing the records being met in terms of the number of transactions.

这不仅在地域上广泛，欧洲异常活跃，美洲显然是最大的并购市场，而且在各个行业和各种规模上也都如此。

It's both geographically broad, Europe has been extraordinarily active, The Americas obviously is the largest M and A market, but also really across industries and across sizes.

那我们来更深入地探讨一下人工智能。

And so let's dig into AI a little bit more.

正如你所说，人工智能及其重塑商业的潜力受到了极大的关注。

As you said, there has been an immense focus on AI and its potential to reshape businesses.

你提到这些活动不仅发生在人工智能公司本身，也发生在围绕它的相关企业中。

So you talked about some of this activity occurring not in the AI specific companies, but ones around it.

但更广泛地说，人工智能如何影响首席执行官和高管团队对未来战略行动的思考？

But more broadly speaking, how is AI influencing how CEOs and C suites are actually thinking about their strategic activity going forward?

因此，它对董事会产生了巨大影响。

So it is hugely impactful in the boardroom.

如果你回顾过去几十年影响并购的其他所有问题，比如融资市场极度困难，或者政治和地缘政治风险，董事会中有很多人曾经历过这些情况，他们了解资本市场，也了解政治、地缘政治和国际关系。

And if you look at all the other issues, let's say, that impacted M and A over decades, whether that be very difficult financing markets, whether that be political or geopolitical risk, there's a ton of expertise in the boardroom who's been through those types of situations, who have understanding of capital markets, who have understanding of politics and geopolitics and international relations.

人工智能完全是全新的，它不仅在潜在影响和如何做出并购决策方面具有颠覆性——而并购决策周期非常长，而且董事会中关于人工智能的技能和专业知识非常有限。

AI is completely new, so not only is it seismic in terms of its potential impact and thinking about how to make decisions on m and a and which are very long cycle decisions, but the skills and expertise in the boardroom is very limited in and around AI.

因此，董事会、管理团队和顾问们不得不在一种影响深远但经验极其匮乏的领域中提供建议并做出决策，这并非任何人的过错。

And so boards and management teams and advisers are having to both advise and make decisions on something that is super impactful, but there's a very short experience base, and that's nobody's fault.

它来得太快了。

It's just it came on so quickly.

因此，董事会的决策变得非常非常困难。

And so that that's the decision making in the boardroom that's very, very difficult.

如今，任何并购交易或并购决策都必须认真考虑AI对我们公司、以及目标公司或我们要合并的公司可能产生的影响。

And there's not an M and A situation or an M and A decision that's being made without extraordinary consideration about what is going to be the AI impact, not only to our company, but to the target company or the company that we're merging with.

这些评估非常困难，但它们正在被做出，而最重要的结论是：如果我是一家大公司，我想在手中握有大量选择，因为我无法确切预知AI将如何发展，但我必须保持敏捷、灵活，并根据AI的发展趋势拥有多种应对方案。

And so those are very difficult assessments, but those assessments are being made, and the most impactful conclusion is that if I'm a large company, I wanna have a lot of cards in my deck because I'm not sure how it's gonna play out exactly, but I need to be nimble, flexible, and have a lot of opportunities to play depending on how AI comes out.

这就是为什么你看到各方都在努力扩大规模，拓展不同业务和产品线。

And that's why you've seen a lot of drive to get larger and have scale in different businesses and different product lines.

对。

Right.

因此，这已成为他们长期战略的一部分。

So it's increasing part of their longer term strategy.

我的意思是，AI这个话题必须被纳入考量。

I mean, it has to be this AI term.

每家公司。

Every company.

每家公司。

Every company.

我们还看到许多公司剥离其业务部分或重新调整其投资组合。

We're also seeing a lot of companies spinning off parts of their businesses or realigning their portfolios.

当我们思考这种战略决策时，这种做法在过去一年中是如何演变的？你认为这种趋势会持续下去吗？

When we think about that type of strategic decision making, how has that evolved over the course of the year, and do you think it'll continue?

是的。

Yeah.

我认为2025年的情况与我们过去十多年所见并无不同，那就是简化，而简化的趋势仍在继续。

I would say 2025 has not been different than what we've seen now for well over a decade, which is simplification, and the drive to simplification continues.

多元化折价依然存在。

The conglomerate discount persists.

如果某些业务由其他方所有能创造更大的股东价值，那么我认为董事会和公司已经非常熟练和熟悉通过简化来实现并交付这种股东价值，而且你不能忽视激进主义依然普遍存在的事实。

If there are businesses that either are better owned or there's a, you know, a better owner for a given business inside of a larger company that creates value for shareholders, I would say that boards and companies have become very facile and very familiar with the simplification move to achieve and deliver that value to shareholders, and you can't ignore the fact that activism is still pervasive.

因此，激进投资者仍在审视每一家公司，思考它们是否应该作为一个投资组合存在。

And so activists continue to look at every company and think about, should they be a portfolio?

它们是否应该被拆分？

Should they be separate?

在这些分拆方案中，是否能创造价值？

And will there be value creation in those separation alternatives?

因此，简化的路径仍在继续，但这并不是一个新趋势——我们至少在过去十多年里一直看到这种现象。

So the the path to simplification continues, but that's not a new trend that we've seen that, you know, certainly for well over a decade.

没错。

Right.

而且，如果我没记错的话，股东激进主义目前达到了五年来的最高水平，这正是你目前所见的重要组成部分。

And actually, if I'm correct, shareholder activism is at a five year high, so very active part of what you're seeing right now.

是的。

Yeah.

我认为，五年前、十年前、十五年前开始出现的界限模糊现象，如今表现为：传统激进投资者仍会募集资金进行 activism，但传统股东和机构投资者也变得更加积极主动。

And I'd say the blur that started five, ten, fifteen years ago, it's a question of there are traditional activists that raise funds to be an activist, but traditional shareholders, traditional institutions are much more active.

大型机构并非主动型投资者，但它们在公司是否应采取战略行动方面更加直言不讳，通常是在私下表达，有时也会公开表态，比如是否应进行简化，而较少关注合并交易，除非交易已公开宣布。

Not that the big institutions are activist, but they are much more vocal, generally privately, but sometimes publicly, with whether they think a company should take a strategic action, whether that be simplification, generally less about doing a merger transaction until it's announced in front of them.

但在投资组合方面，主动型投资者和积极股东都在仔细审视这一点。

But certainly on portfolio, activists and active shareholders are both looking at that very carefully.

没错。

Right.

所以，正如你所说，这是一种长期趋势。

So activism, as you said, longer term trend.

我们一直非常关注私募市场。

We have seen so much focus on private markets.

去年我们交谈时，许多私募股权发起人仍持有大量闲置资金。

When we spoke last year, there were many private equity sponsors that still had a lot of dry powder.

这种情况似乎正在发生变化。

That seems to be changing.

跟我们谈谈这如何影响了市场活动。

Talk to us about how that's impacting activity.

看。

Look.

私募股权仍然占并购市场的30%到40%。

Private equity is still between 3040% of the M and A market.

在高峰期，这一比例接近40%，甚至略高于40%。

At its peak, it gets closer to 40, maybe a bit over 40.

在过去几年中，由于它们在退出投资组合方面面临更多困难，比例已降至三十出头，但仍然是一个巨大的部分，而且实际上还在增长。

In the last few years, given that they've had a more difficult time monetizing their portfolios, it's been more towards the lower thirties, but still a huge part and, frankly, growing part.

我们正处于私募股权复苏的第二或第三局，我说的复苏，是指它们能够对投资组合公司进行重大退出的市场环境。

We're in the second or third inning of the private equity recovery, and when I say recovery, getting to a market where they'll be able to do significant monetizations to their portfolio companies.

所以我们仍然处于第二或第三局。

So we're still in that second, third inning.

尽管如此，它们仍在持续投资。

That being said, they continue to invest.

许多基金已经成功筹集了大量资本，但现在私募股权的范围已经广泛得多。

They've been able to, many of the funds, raise significant amounts of capital, but now private equity has gotten much broader.

以前只有传统的私募股权基金。

Before it was traditional private equity funds.

现在私募股权可以是主权财富基金，主权财富基金直接进行交易，或与企业合作。

Now private equity can be sovereign funds, sovereign funds doing transactions directly, sovereign funds partnering with corporates.

也可以是规模非常大的家族办公室。

It can be very large family offices.

科技行业催生了一些规模空前的家族办公室，它们要么与私募股权并行投资，要么直接投资，方式与私募股权类似。

Part of what the tech world has created are extraordinary large family offices that invest either alongside or directly much like private equity.

私募股权占其中一半。

Private equity is half of it.

私募资本，尤其是私募债务，如今也变得非常庞大。

Private capital, now private debt, obviously, has become very large as well.

因此，当你从整体上思考私募市场时，私募股权在许多方面都已增长，而私募资本和私募信贷更是大幅扩张，这些资金池正在推动并购活动，不仅为私募股权，也为私募资本与企业之间创造创新的交易结构，无论是为我们在AI等领域讨论的投资提供资金，还是其他方式，如今已成为资本结构中极其重要的部分。

So when you think about the private markets in totality, private equity, which has grown in a lot of ways, and private capital, private credit, which has grown tremendously, those are pools that are fostering M and A that are looking to be doing creative structures, not just for private equity, but private capital with corporates, whether it be funding some of this investment that we've talked about with AI or other ways, are extraordinarily large parts of the capital structure now.

因此，对于想要有所作为的公司来说，无论是股权还是债务，都不缺乏资金。

So there's no shortage of capital, whether it be equity or credit for companies who wanna do things.

有趣。

Interesting.

如果我思考一下我们刚刚讨论的内容，斯特凡，让我印象深刻的是——你总是强调这一点——从战略角度来看，高管层是如何思考这些活动的。

If I think about what we've just discussed, Stefan, what's striking to me is and you always emphasize this, it's strategic when you think about this activity and how C suites are thinking about this.

但如果我们展望2026年，我觉得似乎我们之前积累了强烈的被压抑需求，导致了很长的交易管线和你所看到的异常活跃的交易水平。你是否认为这是已被部分满足的被压抑需求，还是认为交易管线将持续到2026年及以后？

But if we think about heading into 2026, it feels to me a little bit like we had this very strong pent up demand for this activity, which led to a very long pipeline and extraordinary activity levels you've seen, would you characterize this as pent up demand that has now been somewhat satiated, or do you see the pipeline extending into 2026 and beyond?

首先，从我们的角度来看，我的观点是，每一笔交易都必须首先符合长期战略意义。

Well, first off, from our perspective, my perspective, every transaction has to start with doesn't make sense strategically long term.

仅此而已。

Full stop.

这是一个简单的测试，用以判断是否值得去审视某项交易，最终是否值得去执行。

That's a simple test of whether it makes sense to look at something and and obviously, eventually to do something.

这个标准必须被远远满足。

That test has to be met in spades.

有时，你确实能完成一些交易。

At times, you'll be able to get things done.

有时，融资会促使你做或不做某事，但归根结底，从我们的角度来看，这件事是否具有战略意义才是关键。

At times, the financing can make you do something or not do something, but bottom line is it has to be strategic from our perspective in terms of does it make sense for you to do it.

当你看统计数据时，比如并购占GDP的百分比，或一些与并购相关的大规模宏观指标，我们目前仍低于历史平均水平。

When you look at the statistics, you know, the percentage of GDP or some of these very large macro measures of M and A relative to some of these larger statistics, we're still running below historical averages.

因此，在疫情后的很多年里，人们无法完成交易，我们的活动水平远低于历史常态。

And so there's been many years post COVID where people weren't able to get done, and we operated well below historical norms.

所以，我不认为我们已经达到了这样的阶段：即战略活动的规模或程度已经完成，我们已经渡过了难关，过去几个月的活动只是暂时的波动。

So I don't think we're at a point where, alright, if the amount or the degree of strategic activity is done, that we've gotten through it and that the activities over the last few months, there'll be ebbs and flows.

我的意思是，事情总是会有所起伏。

I mean, things always ebb a bit.

一般来说，到了年底和节假日前后，活动会有所放缓，但当我们查看新获得的委托和意向书时，这些数字仍维持在21水平或更高。

I mean, you generally head towards year end and the holidays and whatnot, but when we look at our new mandates checks that come in, those numbers are still running at 21 levels or higher.

因此，这是我们展望2026年可能发生的事务时最好的前瞻性指标。

And so that's our best forward indicator as we think about things that may happen into 2026.

但新的委托、新的构想，其中很大一部分，坦率地说，集中在规模较大的交易上，目前仍处于早期阶段。

But the new checks, the new concepts, a lot of it, frankly, on the very larger size is still pretty nascent.

尽管相比2024年和2025年增长了100%，但仍然没有达到过去某些年份那种百亿级别交易的水平。

Even though it's up a 100% over 2024 and '25, it's still not at levels that we saw in some prior years in terms of 10,000,000,000 up transactions.

我们看到的许多新委托要么集中在我们预期会发生的行业、公司或地区，只是尚未发生，而且其中很多规模都非常大。

And a lot of the new checks that we're seeing are either in industries or companies or geographies where we expected it to happen, but it hadn't happened yet, and a lot of those are very large in size.

那么，您对2026年的活动前景有何看法？

So what is your outlook for activity in 2026?

有几个因素。

So couple factors.

如果你看看当前推动异常活跃活动的基础因素——公共和私人市场资本的可获得性，战略投资者希望重新布局、让企业壮大并丰富投资组合——这些因素依然存在。

If you look at the foundational pieces that are really driving the extraordinary activity right now, availability of capital in both the public and private markets, the desire for strategics to reposition for companies to reposition and get bigger, have more cards in their portfolio, all of that remains.

从全球监管的角度来看，很多事情已经得以完成。

The ability to get things done from a global regulatory perspective, obviously, many things have gotten done.

因此，这些基础性力量仍在持续推动市场。

So those foundational forces continue to drive.

此外，还提到了私募股权。

Also, mentioned private equity.

我们认为，私募股权正处于其复苏的第二或第三局，不仅在投资方面，更重要的是在处置其持有的数千家投资组合公司方面。

Private equity, we think, is in the second or third inning of its recovery, both on the investment side, but most importantly, on the monetization of the thousands of portfolio companies that they sit on.

因此，预计这一趋势将加速。

So expect to see that step up.

如果这些因素持续当前态势，且私募股权继续复苏，我们预计2026年的活动水平将与现在相似，达到或接近历史最高水平。

If those things all continue as they are right now and you continue to have private equity recovering, 2026, we'd expect to be similar to what we're seeing now, which is at or near all time high levels.

什么可能破坏这一前景？

What could derail that outlook?

很多因素都可能造成影响，我认为这种情况随时都可能发生。

Lots of things, and it can happen any given day, I would say.

地缘政治风险显然很大。

Geopolitical risk is obviously large.

跨境交易尚未真正复苏，因此任何地缘政治不稳定都可能抑制这一趋势。

We have not seen the real recovery in cross border, and so any geopolitical instability always could put a quell on that.

你可能会看到信贷市场收紧。

You could see credit markets tighten.

金融服务业或工业公司是否存在一些独特的信用问题？

Are there some idiosyncratic either corporate issues around credit in the financial service sector or in industrial corporates or other.

你知道，私人信贷的规模是我们以前从未见过的。

You know, private credit in scale is not something we've seen before.

随着我们经历不同的信贷周期，这种动态将如何演变？

How does that dynamic evolve as we go through credit cycles and others?

这一切还有待观察。

All that's to be known.

但我主要想强调的是，虽然可能存在一些独特因素，但根本驱动因素——包括公共和私人市场的资本可得性、IPO市场的复苏、持续进行战略部署的意愿以及推进事务的能力——才是我们关注的核心，这也是我们对2026年持合理但谨慎乐观态度的原因。

But what I'm highlighting mostly are there could be idiosyncratic things, but the fundamental drivers, so availability of capital both in the public and the private markets, the resurgence in the IPO market, the desire to continue to position strategically, the ability to get things done, those are really the forces we look at, which is why we are reasonably but cautiously bullish on 2026.

话虽如此，我们始终意识到可能会有某些因素减缓这一进程。

That being said, we always recognize that there are things that could slow it down.

一如既往。

As always.

非常感谢你再次加入我们，斯特凡。

Thanks so much, Stefan, for joining us again.

谢谢邀请我参加。

Thanks for having me.

感谢收听本期高盛交流节目，本节目录制于2025年11月20日星期四。

Thanks for listening to this episode of Goldman Sachs Exchanges, which was recorded on Thursday, 11/20/2025.

我是艾莉森·纳撒恩。

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