斯科特·菲利普斯 - 探寻加密市场的丑陋边缘（第七季第15集）

但我希望你能花点时间，如果你愿意的话，谈谈这两种方法在哲学上和机制上的区别，以及你在加密货币领域更倾向于哪一种。

But I wanted you to spend a little time, if you would, talking about the differences of those approaches, maybe both philosophically and mechanically, and which you prefer as it relates to crypto.

当然。

Sure.

这真的很有趣。

That's really interesting.

我曾经交易，现在仍在交易。

I have traded and I continue to trade.

我所有的交易资金都投入在宽松裤系统中。

All my trade trade money is in a loose pants system.

所以我有这方面的见解。

So I got some perspective here.

一些宽松裤派的人对此非常虔诚。

Some of the loose pants guys are very religious about it.

就像《海龟交易法则》里没提到的，就不算真正的趋势跟踪。

Like, it wasn't mentioned in the holy book of the turtles, it's not true trend falling.

他们有一堆纯粹性测试，每周五晚上在Twitter空间里抨击波动率目标的种种罪恶，简直能让你被他们的愚蠢搞到脑壳爆炸。

There's all kinds of purity tests, they have a Friday night Twitter space where they rail against the evils of volatility targeting, and it'll just melt your brain with how dumb it is.

我们先来谈谈宽松裤子系统。

So let's talk about loosepan systems first.

宽松裤子系统最大的优点是你可以用电子表格来运行，而我确实用电子表格运行过。

So the big pro of a loosepan system is that you can run it from a spreadsheet, and I have run it from a spreadsheet.

你根本不需要任何研究团队。

You don't need a research department of any sort.

当我亲自操作宽松裤子策略时，我可以在脑子里大致跟踪我的头寸。

You can kinda keep mental track of exposures in your head when I was running loose pants myself.

比如，我早上醒来，喝杯咖啡，然后扫一眼我交易软件上的五个图表窗口。

Like, I'd wake up, get some coffee into me and flick through five screens on my charting program.

即使不运行电子表格，我也大概知道自己的头寸情况。

Even without, like, running the spreadsheet, I kinda know what my exposures were.

这都是非常非常简单的东西。

And it's very, very simple stuff.

当我向你和辛克莱描述典型的宽松系统公司时，他第一句话就问我：这些人整天都在干什么？

And when I described typical loose pants firms to you and Sinclair, the first thing he said to me was, what do these guys do all day?

这相当于实习生每天只花五分钟就能完成的工作。

This is like five minutes a day work for an intern.

而这正是它的优势。

And that's a pro.

那么我们来谈谈所谓的宽松系统，有时也叫单进单出系统。

So let's talk about what a loose pants system, sometimes called a one entry, one stop system.

这些信号通常是二元的。

The signals are usually binary.

要么全仓进入，要么全仓退出。

They're all in or all out.

所以这是第一个低效之处，因为你假设自己没有任何信息。

So this is the first inefficiency because you're assuming that you have no information.

如果你是基于五十日突破或十六日均线穿越六十四日均线而入场，然后在另一端退出。

If you're going in on a fifty day breakout or a sixteen day moving average crossing over a sixty four day moving average and then back out at the other end.

你假设连续信号中没有任何信息，但这并不正确。

You're assuming there's no information in the continuous signal, which isn't true.

所以这些信号是二元的。

So the signals are binary.

只有一个止损点。

There's one stop loss.

这才是关键所在。

That's the defining thing.

因此，要么在订单簿中设置硬性止损，这显然非常不理想，因为别人会专门猎取你的止损单；要么采用软性止损，即如果价格收盘低于这个水平，我们明天开盘时就退出。

So either a hard stop loss in the order book, which is very suboptimal for obvious reasons because people can hunt your stops, or a soft stop, which is if it closes below this level, we're gonna get out tomorrow on the open.

而大多数人正是这样做的，因为仅通过这种方式，交易流就能提升约70个基点。

And that's the way most people do it because there's about 70 basis points of improvement in trad flow just from doing it that way.

通常，这些系统不会进行日内交易。

Typically, these systems don't trade intraday.

每天执行一次，甚至更少，实际上就足够了。

Once a day execution or even less is actually fine.

所以，我的这套批量标准宽松裤系统，是一个以五十日突破入场、七十日低点止损的系统。

And so a bulk standard loose pants system, my system, is a fifty day breakout entry with a seventy day low stop.

就是这样。

That's it.

在一组多元化的期货市场上运行它，40到50个期货市场，越多越好，只要你能负担得起。

Run it on a diversified set of futures markets, 40 to 50 futures markets as many as you can afford.

作为散户交易员，你有个问题。

You've got a problem as a retail trader.

你没有足够的保证金去交易你想要的所有市场，你必须做出选择。

You don't have enough margin to trade as many markets as you want, you have to pick and choose.

真糟心。

Sucks.

或者七十日入场、九十里止损，一百日入场、一百二十日止损，你明白我的意思。

Or 70 entry, ninety day stop, hundred day entry, hundred and twenty day stop, you get the idea.

所以，其他常见的止损选择是平均真实波幅的倍数，通常在四到五倍ATR之间。

So the other common choices for stop losses are multiple of average true range, usually somewhere between four and five ATRs.

你会注意到，这类系统使用的术语——突破、移动平均线交叉和平均真实波幅——明显源自零售技术分析领域。

And you'll notice that the terminology that these types of systems use, breakouts and moving average crossovers and average true range, it's very clearly got a lineage from the retail technical analysis y world.

这显然不是源自量化金融的东西。

It's very clearly not a quant finance derived thing.

所以这些人是自己发展起来的。

So these guys kind of evolved on their own.

这是一个完全独立的生态系统。

It's a completely separate ecosystem.

再来一个更复杂的宽松裤子系统。

So a bit of more sophisticated loose pants system.

比如，如果你要构建一个最理想的宽松裤子系统，你会根据期权价格所隐含的概率分布来设置出场点。

Like, if you were gonna build the best loose pants system you could, you would base your exits on a probability distribution implied by the options price.

这才是聪明的做法。

That's the smart way to do it.

任何不这么做的人都值得怀疑。

Anyone who's not doing it that way is suspecting.

这些系统的問題在于，如果你依赖比如五十日突破，有时你会遇到大量的突破。

The problem with these systems, if you're getting along on, say, fifty day breakouts, sometimes you're gonna have a lot of breakouts.

比如在2008年或2020年，所有东西都在突破。

Like in a 2008 or 2020, everything's broken out.

而有时你又根本看不到多少突破。

And sometimes you're gonna have not many breakouts at all.

所以你所承担的风险大小会随之变化。

So your risk how much risk you're taking.

在2022年或2020年，你的25伏特传统金融宽松系统可能实际上承担了200伏特的风险。

In 2022 or 2020, your 25 volt TradFi loose pants system was probably taking 200 volts of risk.

对吧？

Right?

仅仅因为所有东西都在下跌。

Just because everything broke in.

而那些宽松系统的人会说，这根本不是bug。

And the loose pants guys would say this is not a bug.

这是一个特性。

This is a feature.

比如，当我们遇到2008年时，我们希望做空所有东西，并且做空的规模是正常情况的十倍，因为极端事件，极端事件，极端事件。

Like, when we get to 2008, we wanna be short everything, and we wanna be short everything in 10 times the normal size and because outliers, outliers, outliers.

他们说得有点道理。

They kinda have a point.

关键在于，如果你想绝对最大化投资组合的凸性，也就是在2008年、2020年或2022年能赚到的钱，那么当市场崩盘时，你就应该承担更多风险。

And the point is that if you wanna absolutely maximize the amount of convexity that you have for a portfolio, the amount of money you make in a 2008 or 2020 or 2022, then you would want to take more risk when the shit hits the fan.

如果你从整个投资组合的角度来看，这种情况可能更加明显。

And this is probably more so if you're looking at it from a portfolio total basis.

如果我持有很多股票，而市场突然出现2008年那样的情况，我真希望我的趋势跟踪策略能以200个波动率的规模全力运行，而我的股票正在暴跌。

If I'm long a lot of stocks and we get a 2008, I really want my trend following to be running at 200 vols while my stocks are taking it.

你明白我的意思吗？

You know what I mean?

如果你从2008年的背景来思考这个问题，就能明白这实际上可能有多么可怕。

If you think about that in the context of a 2008, you can see how frightening this could actually be.

坐在便宜的座位上说我会持有，这很容易，但很多趋势跟踪经理在那种时候都会退缩，降低仓位。

It's easy from the cheap seats to say I would hold that, but a lot of trend following managers pussy down in those times and reduced exposures.

所以，如果你在寻找一个用于趋势跟踪的经理，你应该仔细考察这些压力情境，问：你是否坚持了你的规则，还是临阵退缩了？

And so if you're looking for a trend following manager for trad flight, you should be looking very hard at those stress situations and say, did you stick to your rules or did you pussy out?

而这一点，你很难从很多基金经理那里得到正确的答案。

And that's something that you're not gonna get the right answer from a lot of train managers.

宽松系统面临的第二个问题是，一旦入场后，它们不会管理仓位。

The second problem that loose pants systems have is they don't manage exposures once you're in.

所以，如果我想承担50个波动率的风险，我就需要保持一定的仓位水平。

So if I wanna take 50 vols of risk, I need to have a certain set of exposures.

当市场波动变化时，量化交易者会说我们必须减仓，但宽松派却不会这么做，因为他们想最大化极端收益。

So the volatility and market changes at quant would say we have to take some risk off, and the loose pants guys won't do that because they're wanting to maximize outlier wins.

比如今年的可可豆，价格涨了20倍，但波动率却飙升了40倍。

You know, like in cocoa this year so cocoa was like a 20 bagger in price, but the volatility went up 40 times.

所以这些人持有的仓位，是克里夫·阿萨斯会持有规模的100倍。

So these guys are holding it, like, a 100 times the size that Cliff Asses would hold.

对吧？

Right?

所以这些人靠一笔交易就赚了一年。

So those guys made the year off one trade.

这是好消息。

So that's the good news.

今年我也做了可可豆交易。

And I got some cocoa this year.

这对我来说是一次大赢。

It was a great win for me.

但坏消息是，你所操控的这种凸性、正偏态并不是免费的。

But the bad news is that that convexity, that positive skew that you're manipulating isn't free.

它是以牺牲夏普比率换取的。

It comes at the expense of sharp.

因此，你在获得多少凸性与保持多少夏普比率之间的权衡，通过接受市场随机赋予你的头寸——无论是在交易次数还是交易规模上——本质上就是在结果中引入了运气和波动性。

So this trade off between how much convexity you get and how much Sharpe you have, and by accepting random exposures that the market wants to give you, both in the number of trades you take and the size of the trades that you take, is sort of by definition introducing luck and variance into your results.

如果不是运气差，我简直就没运气了。

And if it wasn't bad luck, I'd have no luck at all.

运气其实并不是你的朋友，像所有事情都平等的情况下，接受随机暴露也并非世界末日。

Luck is not really your friend, and it's not really the end of the world taking random exposures, like all things being equal.

它会降低风险调整后的收益，因为你是在接受市场给你的东西，而不是主动选择你想要的。

It will reduce risk adjusted returns because you're taking what the market gives you instead of actually choosing what you wanna take.

我认为这就是句号，完全结束，不用再谈了。

And I think that's a period, full stop, end of story kind of thing.

作为宽松裤子交易者，你遇到的下一个问题是，你选择了50日突破，但20日突破本可以让你更早进入同一趋势，并持有更大的仓位，而你却没有调整。

And the next problem that you run into as a loose pants trader is that you choose fifty day breakouts, but a twenty day breakout would have got you into the same trend earlier with a larger position which you're not adjusting.

所以，如果你抓住了一个500倍的行情，但提前一周以三倍的仓位入场，这对你全年收益的影响是巨大的。

So that's a big if you get a 500 bagger and you got onto it a week earlier with triple the size, it's a big difference to your yearly results.

顺便说一句，这也是趋势策略中基金经理表现差异如此之大的原因之一。

And this is one of the reasons why there's so much manager dispersion in trend, by the way.

所以你在承担参数风险，而这种风险是你并未获得补偿却依然在承担的。

So you're taking parameter risk, and parameter risk is a risk that you're being paid you're not being paid to take, but you're taking anyway.

因此，通常缓解这个问题的方法是将三到四个不同的宽松裤子系统结合起来，以近似一个连续的单一系统，这也是通常的做法。

So the usual way of ameliorating that is to blend three or four different loose pants systems together to get an approximation of the single continuous system, and that's the usual way of doing it.

而最后一个问题是，当你使用二元信号（如突破、移动平均线交叉）时，你隐含地假设连续信号中没有任何信息，而我们实际上知道如何检验这一点。

And then the last problem is that when you're using binary signals like breakouts moving average crossovers, you're implicitly assuming there's no information in a continuous signal, and we know how to test that.

我们可以通过百分位数或十分位数来检验这一点，并且我们确切地知道，连续信号具有预测能力。

We can test that with centiles or deciles, and we know for a fact that a continuous signal has predictive power.

具体来说，一个强烈的负向信号比一个较弱的负向信号更能预测空头走势，而一个强烈的正向信号比一个较弱的正向信号更能预测上涨空间。

In that a strong negative signal is better, It predicts more of the short side than a weak negative signal, and a strong positive signal predicts more of the upside than a weak positive signal.

因此，我们知道这些信息是存在的，但在宽松裤子交易中，你却把所有这些信息都丢弃了。

So we know that there's information there, and you're throwing all that information away as loose pants trading.

你认为这无关紧要。

You're saying that doesn't matter.

我只想要那些极端的异常值。

All I want are the outliers.

在传统金融中，宽松裤子系统的夏普比率大致在0.4到0.6之间，你觉得呢？

So loose pants systems in TradFi are sort of in the range of point four to point six sharp, would you say?

这在我看来差不多是对的。

That seems about right to me.

在传统金融中，连续波动率目标的夏普比率范围是0.7到1.3，具体取决于是否持有。

The continuous vol targeted are in the range in TradFi point seven to 1.3 sharp, depending on if you do holds.

因此，这是一个巨大的差异。

And so it's a big difference.

在风险调整后收益上差异巨大，但宽松裤系统的人会说，我们并不玩风险调整收益这个游戏。

It's a big difference in risk adjusted returns, but the loose pants guys would say we're not playing the risk adjusted return game.

我们玩的是绝对收益游戏。

We're playing the absolute return game.

他们还说，夏普比率无法准确衡量他们的做法，这完全是胡说八道。

And they also say that Sharpe doesn't accurately measure what they do, which is nonsense.

但其中确实有一点道理。

But there's a kernel of truth in that.

而那个合理的部分是，宽松裤系统的人——并非所有人都意识到这一点——如果你把宽松裤系统的盈利交易和亏损交易分组，盈利和亏损交易看起来会像是两个完全不同的系统。

And the kernel of truth that the loose pants guys, not all of them know it, if you bucketed the winning and losing trades of a loose pants system, the winning and losing trades would look like two totally different systems.

平均而言，盈利交易的波动率是亏损交易的四倍。

So on average, the winning trades have four times the vol of the losing trades.

所以那些穿宽松裤子的人会说：盈利交易波动率高又有什么关系呢？

So the loose pants guys are like, well, who cares about having high vol on a winning trade?

这其中确实有些道理。

And, you know, there's some truth to that.

这确实有一定道理。

There's definitely some truth to that.

但当他们把所谓的‘异常值捕捉’说得像某种神秘魔法，仿佛没人意识到收益分布存在尾部，而其他人只是假设市场服从高斯正态分布时，这就变成胡言乱语了——实际上，从来没有人真正相信市场是正态分布的，也没有人这么假设过，诸如此类。

Where it turns into nonsense is that they talk about outlier hunting as though there's some sort of misinterled magic and no one's figured out that there's tales of a distribution, and everyone else is just assuming that markets are Gaussian normal, which is something that no one ever in markets has ever assumed and no one believes it and blah blah blah.

我对你的看法很感兴趣，因为你两者都做过。

I'm kinda interested in your take on that because you've done both.

这是一场对我的采访。

Well, this is an interview of me.

我认为，随着时间推移，随着我们看到这一策略日益量化，正是在这种情况下，为了让该策略被机构采纳，它必须拥有更可预测的收益流。

I think one of the things we've seen over time, right, as we've seen the increased, dare I say quantification of the strategy, is it is one of those cases where for this strategy to become institutionalized, it had to have a more predictable return stream.

于是你采用了这种金库目标策略。

And so you got to this vault targeting approach.

对吧？

Right?

正如你敏锐指出的，这种金库目标策略有其优缺点，即它会提高夏普比率，但会牺牲凸性。

And I think there are, as you pointed out astutely, the pros and cons, which is the vault targeted approach is going to create a higher Sharpe ratio at the cost of convexity.

因此，从整个投资组合构建的角度来看（我们都应该这样考虑），你可以论证更高凸性的产品可能更具吸引力。

And so you can make an argument that the higher convexity product actually might be more attractive when you're considering total portfolio construction, as we all should.

我们应当这样思考问题。

That's how we should be thinking about it.

但现实是，世界上每个利益相关方都在逐项审查。

But the reality is every stakeholder in the world is scrutinizing at the line item level.

因此，从行为角度看，大多数人可能还是会坚持波动率目标策略。

And so behaviorally, think most people can probably stick with the vol targeting programs.

我认为可可就是一个很好的例子，你看到所有进行可可交易的波动率目标者都在可可价格上涨时抛售可可，这正是你所指出的：波动率上涨的速度是价格趋势上涨速度的四倍。

And I think cocoa is a great example where you saw all the vol targeters who traded cocoa were selling cocoa down as cocoa was going up for the exact point you made, which was vol exploded four times faster than the price trend went up.

而当时在高点持仓的都是那些追随宽松裤趋势的交易者，那一年他们大获全胜。

And then all the people who were holding at the top were the loose pants trend followers, and that was their blowout year.

但你比我更清楚。

But you would know better than me.

我的意思是，当价格回落时，他们在 cocoa 上的盈亏表上经历了多大的回撤？

I mean, what was the drawdown they had on cocoa in their p and l when it went back to earth?

哦，大约有40%。

Oh, it was like 40%.

那些抓住机会的人，持有的 cocoa 价值超过了他们基金总值的100%。

They were holding over a 100% of the value of their funds in COCA, the guys who got it.

对。

Right.

所以他们获得了巨大的回报，但希望没人是在回报峰值时才买入这个基金。

And so they have this enormous return and hopefully no one was buying into the fund at the peak of that return.

代价是，没错，你现在持有了巨大的仓位。

The cost is, right, you're now holding enormous size.

在你的趋势信号让你退出之前，你会经历一次巨大的回撤。

You're gonna have this really big drawdown on the way down before your trend signals get you out.

所以，再次强调，我认为从整个投资组合构建的角度来看，宽松趋势系统是有道理的，但我只是不认为现实世界在资产配置上真的如此运作。

So again, I think there is an argument to be made for the loose trends systems in my opinion when you look at it from a total portfolio construction perspective, but I just don't think that's how the world really works when it comes to allocation.

而且，让我们坦诚地说吧。

And also, like, let's be really honest here.

那些操作宽松趋势系统的人，根本不可能在百万年内运行一个波动率目标系统。

The guys running loose pants systems couldn't in a million years run a vol target system.

他们没有研究部门。

They don't have the research department.

他们没有技术能力。

They don't have the technical capability.

他们没有执行能力。

They don't have the execution capability.

不出所料，这个人从一个谷歌表格管理着一亿美元的对冲基金，二十年来从未修改过系统规则或更换市场。

Surprise, surprise, the guy runs a $100,000,000 hedge fund from Google Sheet that has done for twenty years without modifying your system rules or changing markets.

不出所料，这个人认为做其他任何事情都是浪费时间，因为他根本做不到。

Surprise, surprise, that guy thinks that it's a waste of time doing anything else because he can't do that.

他甚至连能做这件事的人才都雇不起。

He couldn't even employ the talent to do it.

所以我想就波动率目标问你一个跟进问题，因为关于你的策略应该运行在多高的波动率水平上，这一直是争论的焦点。

So let me ask you a follow-up question about volatility targeting because one of the big battles is always around what is the volatility you should be running your program at.

我发现有趣的是，越是纯粹的趋势跟踪者，就越希望使用高波动率的策略。

And I find what's interesting is the more purist people get about trend following, the higher vol program they want.

我想知道你是如何考虑设定这个波动率目标的。

And I'm curious how you think about what target you set for that vol level.

在这方面，我有点像是异端。

This is where I'm somewhat of a heretic.

我是那种‘只做趋势，别无他法’的人。

I'm one of those trend plus nothing guys.

我认为以低波动率运行趋势系统，对整个投资组合来说是次优的。

I think running a trend system at low vol is suboptimal for your whole portfolio.

我认为纯粹的趋势跟踪、CTA风格的趋势跟踪，无论你是采用波动率目标策略还是随意操作，其巨大优势在于几乎不可能爆仓。

I think the big advantage of trend following purest trend following, CTA style trend following, whether you're doing a volatility targeted or loose pants, is that it's extremely difficult to blow up.

如果不以合理的凯利比例进行交易，你就是在亏待自己。

And not running it at a reasonable Kelly fraction, you're doing yourself a disservice.

你无法做到精准操控。

You can't spin sharp.

如果你是在用自己的钱交易，而我只交易自己的钱。

If you're trading your own money and I only trade my own money.

实际上，这并不准确。

Actually, that's not true.

我们也会交易别人的钱。

Like, we trade other people's money.

我用这些收益来资助趋势系统的开发，但我的财富来源于自己的账户。

I use the returns from that to fund the development of the trend system, but my wealth comes from my own book.

因此，我大部分自有资金都以50%的波动率运行，但有些账户的波动率高达90%。

So I run most of my own money at 50 volt, but I have some accounts running at 90 volt.

这看起来很疯狂，但与加密货币相比，高夏普比率的优势在于你犯错的速度更快。

And that seems insane except the advantage of high sharp comparatively with crypto is that you're wrong quicker.

我想是那位芬兰人，马蒂，曾经上过你的播客。

So I think it was the Finnish guy, Marty, who was on your podcast.

所以四倍凯利等于夏普比率的平方乘以二。

So four Kelly is sharp squared on two.

所以如果你认为你的实际夏普比率是1，那么半凯利就是50倍杠杆。

So if you think your real sharp is one, then half Kelly is 50 volt.

而你在加密货币趋势中的夏普比率远高于1，但我认为这为你留出了足够的误差余地。

And you're sharp in crypto trend is a lot higher than one, but I think that leaves you a safe margin for error.

对我来说，50倍杠杆表现非常好。

And for me, 50 vol has been really good.

在牛市和熊市中，它的年化复合增长率达到了93%，每年都能盈利，夏普比率为1.7。

It's been, like, 93% CAGR over bull and bear markets, made money every single year at Sharp one point seven.

我的意思是，这正是我在零售成本水平下的实际表现。

I mean, that's what it's been for me at retail level costs.

我想把对话从这个理论层面落实到操作层面，如果你允许的话，谈谈交易所选择、执行和交易成本。

I want to take the conversation from this theoretical level down to an operational level, if you'll allow me, talk about exchange selection and execution and tea costs.

我非常好奇你是如何考虑交易场所选择的。

Really curious how you think about venue selection.

我希望能听听你对加密货币中去中心化与中心化交易所的看法，关于交易成本、滑点，以及在不同交易所交易不同加密货币，还有在不同交易场所交易时对手方是谁的问题。

I'd love for you to comment on decentralized versus centralized exchanges in crypto, transaction cost consideration and slippage and trading certain cryptocurrencies on certain exchanges and others elsewhere and the idea of who's on the other side when you're trading at different venues.

是的。

Yeah.

这真的很有意思。

This is really interesting.

我认为，对于任何类型的风险溢价、风格溢价或投资策略，都应该在你能接触到的流动性最高的交易场所进行交易，这是不言自明的。

So I think it's axiomatic that you should trade at the highest liquidity venue that you can for any sort of style premium, risk premium, sort of proposition.

我们在币安、Bybit、DYDX V3、已停用的DYDX V4、KuCoin和Bitget上交易，并即将开始在HyperLiquid上交易。

So we trade on Binance, Bybit, DYDX version three, DYDX version, which has been sunsetted, DYDX version four, KuCoin, and Bitget, and about to start on hyperliquid.

币安和Bybit显然更胜一筹。

And Binance and Bybit are clearly superior.

我对HyperLiquid寄予厚望。

I have high hopes for hyperliquid.

总的来说，风险溢价策略在高流动性场所表现更好。

So in general, risk premia harvesting works better on high liquidity venues.

但任何价格效率策略，比如我们有些非趋势类交易、套利策略和肮脏套利策略，都是在四流垃圾交易所上进行的。

But any sort of pricing efficiency strategy so we have some stuff that we trade on some other non trend stuff, some carry trading strategies and dirty carry trading strategies that we trade on really fourth tier garbage venues.

这些垃圾平台反而更好，因为任何价格无效性策略在差的交易所上都比在好的交易所上更有效。

The garbage are the better because any sort of price inefficiency strategy is gonna work better on a trash exchange than than a good one.

比如，我们运行一个叫‘肮脏套利’的策略，即做多五个最高正套利币种，做空五个最高负套利币种。

So you see certain things for example, we run a thing we call the dirty carry trade, which is going long the 5 coins with the highest positive carry and short the 5 coins with the highest possible negative carry.

希望这两者能大致平衡。

And hopefully, those two are roughly balanced out.

这是一种肮脏的对冲，所以我们称之为‘肮脏套利’。

It's a dirty hedge, so we call it dirty carry.

很久以前，这个策略在2020年的币安和FTX上很有效，但后来在所有好的平台都失效了。

And that used to work a long time ago on Binance and FTX in 2020, and then stopped working on all the good places.

当Hyperliquid上线时，它表现得非常好。

And when Hyperliquid opened up, it worked really, really well.

现在它在一些比那更差的交易所上也表现得非常好。

And now it works really, really well on some other even progressively crappier exchanges than that.

就执行而言，只要你坚持那些非常明显的大方向，你的执行不需要很好。

So as far as execution goes, as long as you stick to the big stonkingly obvious stuff, like your execution doesn't have to be great.

但当你越往统计套利方向走，越往截面策略方向走，你的执行就必须越好。

But your execution the further you go towards stat arb stuff, the further you go towards cross sectional strategies, the better yet your execution has to be.

因为截面动量策略的理念是我并不承担任何市场风险。

Because the idea with cross sectional momentum is I'm not taking any market risk.

我持有50%的多头和50%的空头，我希望保持平衡。

I'm holding 50% longs, 50 shorts, I wanna stay balanced.

希望多头上涨的幅度超过空头下跌的幅度。

And hopefully, long stuff goes up more than the short stuff goes down.

如果你的执行很差，这种平衡会很快被打破。

And if your execution is poor, that's gonna get out of balance and out of whack very quick.

然后你就承担了非预期的风险，这是不对的。

And then you're taking unintended exposures, which is wrong.

所以如果你在谈纯粹的趋势策略，你的执行可以很糟糕。

So if you're talking about straight trend, your execution can be terrible.

你甚至可以用一个土豆来做趋势交易。

You could trade trend with a potato.

一旦你从趋势策略转向更复杂的东西，你就必须非常关注执行和交易场所。

As soon as you go from something beyond trend to something more sophisticated, you kinda have to pay a lot of attention to execution and venue.

我想再稍微谈一下持仓成本这个话题。

I want to stay on the carry topic for a second.

在加密货币中，尤其是在牛市期间，我们看到杠杆头寸的持仓成本远高于传统市场。

In crypto and particularly during bull markets, we see this really high cost of carry for levered positions versus what we see in traditional markets.

相比之下，我们看到今天标普期货的杠杆和融资成本异常高，已经飙升到高达120个基点。

I mean, by comparison, we're seeing really abnormally high cost of leverage, cost of financing embedded in S and P futures today and it got up to like 120 bips above so far.

对吧？

Right?

对于任何加密货币市场参与者来说，这简直低得可笑。

And for anyone in cryptocurrency markets, that's like laughably low.

这些杠杆头寸的高持仓成本是什么？

What are the high costs of carry for these levered positions?

给我们讲讲这个生态系统。

Tell us about the ecosystem.

给我们讲讲其中的参与者。

Tell us about the participants.

谈谈现金与现货套利或这些肮脏的持仓策略如何获利。

Tell us about the opportunity for cash and carry or these dirty carry strategies being profitable.

如果我们讨论是什么让加密货币成为加密货币，最明显的一点就是资金进出存在摩擦。

If we talk about what makes crypto crypto, the first thing that's really obvious is that there's friction on getting your money in and getting your money out.

因此，资金往往停留在整个加密货币体系内，也停留在各个链内。

So the tendency is that the money stays within crypto as a whole and also within chains.

如果你曾经尝试过把资金从Solana链转到Avalanche链或其他链，你的手腕都会被甩酸了。

If you've ever had to get money from Solana chain to AVAC's chain or whatever, you'll you'll be slinging your wrist.

这样做太糟糕了，一旦由于外部事件（比如特朗普推出一个模因币）导致流动性进入某个链，这些流动性就会四处涌动，短暂地制造出大量波动，推高并抛售各种随机或半随机的代币。

It's so awful to do that that once liquidity comes into one chain for an external event, like, for example, Trump launching a meme coin, that liquidity should slosh around creating excess waves of liquidity pumping and dumping random and semi random coins for a little while.

加密货币中的持仓成本是如何确定的？

How is the carry rate decided in crypto?

他们交易一种叫做永续合约的东西，你的用户了解永续合约吗？

They trade these things called perpetual futures, which will your users know about perpetual futures?

我认为大多数人都能理解永续合约。

I think most of them would probably understand perpetual futures.

好的。

Okay.

如果你了解永续合约，那么持仓成本就是现货价格与期货价格之间的差额，它们应该趋于收敛。

So if you understand perpetual futures, the carry rate is set by the differential between the spot and the futures price, and they should converge.

当这种价差剧烈扩大时，通常是因为有人在进行某种犯罪行为、跑路骗局，或者持仓成本的尾部变得异常诡异。

When that blows out, it's usually because someone is running some sort of crime or doing some sort of exit scam or the tails of carry get very weird.

负向尾部（负持仓成本）比正向尾部要稳定得多，因为做空很难获利。

The left side of the tail, negative carry, is a lot better behaved than the right side because it's hard to monetize the short side.

很难从左侧尾部获利。

It's hard to monetize the left tail.

抱歉。

Sorry.

那不对。

That wasn't correct.

因此，资金费率相当稳定，今天的资金费率可以很好地预测明天的资金费率。

So carry rate is quite sticky as in today's funding rate is quite predictive of tomorrow's funding rate.

因此，你可以通过做多现货、做空期货来赚取基差，这是我在我个人账户中做的操作，从而赚取基差。

So you can earn a basis as in going long spot, short the futures, which is something I do in my personal account, and earn that basis.

现在，这是小型加密交易者拥有巨大优势的领域之一。

Now this is one of the areas where small crypto traders have a huge advantage.

在容量受限的市场中，你可以轻松瞄准4%到700%的资金费率交易，比如小市值山寨币。

You can easily target four to 700% carry trades in capacity constrained markets, small shitcoins.

这是因为彩票购买者对杠杆的渴望。

And that's because lottery ticket buyers, people desire for leverage.

他们愿意为特朗普币或当天的任何垃圾币支付更高的杠杆费用。

They're willing to pay more for leverage for Trump coin or whatever garbage trash coin of the day.

你可以从中获利，只要能保持Delta中性，就能赚取大量资金。

And you can monetize that, and as long as you can keep it delta neutral, you can earn a lot of money doing it.

这对散户交易员来说可能是很好的起点。

And that's probably a great place to start for a retail trader.

各个交易平台之间也存在非常有趣的资金费率套利机会。

There's also very interesting funding arms between venues.

Hyperliquid和币安之间的资金费率套利一直很不错。

And the funding arms between Hyperliquid and Binance have been good.

Hyperliquid和第四梯队的垃圾交易所之间的资金费率套利非常非常好。

Between Hyperliquid and fourth tier trash exchanges are very, very good.

因此，你可以进行Delta中性交易，而不需要很大的仓位。

So you can get on delta neutral trades, not with a great deal of size.

但如果你是家庭交易员，这些机会简直太棒了。

But if you're a home trader, this stuff is incredible.

你提到过犯罪。

You mentioned crime.

在推特上，你多次发布过一张图表，显示现货价格与该永续合约价格的对比。

And on Twitter, there have been several times where you've posted a chart where that'll have the spot price versus the pricing of that perpetual future.

而你推文里只写一句话：这是犯罪。

And all you'll put in the tweet is it's crime.

总是犯罪。

Always crime.

一直都是犯罪。

It's always crime.

我希望能请你具体谈谈这些例子。

And I was hoping you could talk me through specifically these examples.

对吧？

Right?

当你展示永续合约价格远高于现货价格时，你到底想表达什么？

What are you showing when you're showing the perp price blowing way out from the spot price?

你为什么觉得这是犯罪？

Why do you think that's crime?

更广泛地说，退一步看，你怎么看待犯罪和跑路行为作为这个市场中独特且特异的行为驱动因素？

And then more broadly, taking a step back, how do you think about crime and rug pulls as a unique idiosyncratic driver of behavior in this market?

哦，这变得非常有趣了。

Oh, this is where it gets super interesting.

让我们谈谈我们所谓的加密货币犯罪的常规模式——几乎每个风投都这么做：自古以来，他们以100万到500万美元的估值投资初创公司，利用人脉帮它们上线交易所，制造虚假社区，制造热度，吸引大量散户因错失恐惧症（FOMO）涌入，成为接盘的流动性。

Let's talk about what we would call the vanilla model of crypto crime that almost every VC does is since time immemorial, they've invested in startups at 1 to $5,000,000 market cap, and they've used their contacts to get them listed on exchanges and create fake ass communities around them and get some buzz and get a bunch of retail guys FOMO ing in to become exit liquidity.

在这种情况下，风投、种子投资者或创始人账面上可能有100倍甚至500倍的收益，但加密货币中的流动性很大程度上是一种幻觉。

And you've got this situation where a VC or a seed investor or a founder will have a 100 bagger or a 500 bagger on paper, but the liquidity in crypto is largely an illusion.

就像纳西姆·塔勒布说的那样：傻瓜只关注电影院的大小，而不关心出口的宽度。

It's like that thing that Nassim Taleb said, like, an idiot focuses on the size of the movie theater and not the width of the door.

而加密货币进出的出口宽度非常非常窄。

And the width of the door in and out of crypto is very, very narrow.

所以，举个例子，我最近故意、永久地用一笔4000美元的抛售，彻底摧毁了一枚市值100万美元的迷因币。

So for example, I personally and permanently on purpose wrecked for all time a $1,000,000 market cap meme coin recently with a $4,000 sell.

在一百万美元的市值下，4000美元就能彻底摧毁一个项目。

That's the level of like, $4,000 can nuke something for all time at a million dollar market cap.

在1亿美元的市值下，你能在不显著影响价格的情况下卖出三四千美元就不错了。

At a $100,000,000 market cap, you'd be lucky to get 3 or $400 out without materially affecting the price.

因此，我们知道现货价格和期货价格应该在各种可预测的时间间隔内重新趋于一致。

So we know that the spot price and the futures futures price should be coming back into alignment at various predictable intervals.

否则就会存在套利机会，有人应该会关闭这个套利。

Otherwise, there's an arb, and someone should be closing that arb.

如果你看到这个套利机会没有关闭，反而急剧扩大，唯一的可能原因是有人正在全力抛售。

If you see that arb not closing and in fact blowing out, the only possible reason for that is someone is just dumping with both hands.

所以，加密货币犯罪的经典模式是：衍生品市场规模超过现货市场。

So what happens is the classic model of crypto crime is when the derivatives market gets bigger than the spot market.

你可以通过一些精心策划的欺诈性市场操作来推高现货市场，而这种行为在传统金融世界中是非法的，但在加密领域却不是。

You can walk the spot market up with some judicious fraudulent market making, which isn't illegal like it would be in trad fi world.

对吧？

Right?

事实上，这一点非常重要，尤其是考虑到特朗普政府正在将加密货币相关行为定为非法，将加密领域的犯罪行为彻底 outlawed。

In fact, that's a very important thing to notice, like, especially with the Trump administration with making crypto stuff illegal illegal, like with outlawed crime in crypto.

现在，一切都有可能被禁止。

Like, everything's on the table now.

因此，你可以让市场做市商通过操纵现货价格来推高你的交易记录，同时你在衍生品市场、永续合约市场上大量抛售。

So you can get a market maker to walk your spot tape up while you're selling in size on the derivatives market, in the per futures market.

这就是获取退出流动性的典型模式。

And that's the usual model of gaining exit liquidity.

因为如果你仔细想想，每个人都能追踪你的钱包。

Because if you think about it, everyone can follow your wallet.

一切都是公开的。

Everything's public.

所以你是个创始人。

So you're a founder.

你的钱包里有1亿枚代币。

You've got a 100,000,000 coins in your wallet.

每个人都在追踪这个钱包。

Everyone's tracking that wallet.

我持有的币种，我为所有顶级持币者设置了警报。

The coins I'm in, I've got alerts on all the top holders.

如果有人开始抛售，我想第一时间知道。

If someone starts selling, I want to know.

所以如果你想抛售、退出，你必须先在衍生品市场对冲。

So if you wanna sell, if you want to get out, you have to hedge first in the derivatives market.

当有人这么做时，这就是价格不敏感交易。

And when someone does that, this is price insensitive trading.

而价格不敏感交易几乎总是有利可图的。

And price insensitive trading almost always has edge to it.

对吧？

Right?

如果你确信某个币种的持有者正在二级市场大规模抛售全部持仓，那么几乎可以断定，这个币种未来将面临严重问题。

If you see for sure that the owners of a coin are dumping their whole stack in size in the secondary markets, you can pretty much say that that coin is gonna have a lot of problems going forward.

这真是个不错的镜头。

Like, that's a good shot.

你在寻找价格敏感的交易流，而价格敏感的交易流可能来自多头或空头一方。

You're looking for price sensitive flows, and price sensitive flows could be on the long side or the short side.

在大多数市场中，你看到犯罪行为就会赶紧躲得远远的。

In most markets, you see crime and you rush the hell away from it.

但在加密货币中，我看到犯罪行为，反而会搓手兴奋地冲向犯罪现场。

In crypto, I see crime and you're rubbing your hands together and you're running racing towards the crime.

比如，朝鲜黑客攻击了某个交易所。

So for example, North Korea hacks some exchange.

他们第一件事就是去Thorchain，这个犯罪者的首选链。

The first thing they're gonna do is go to Thorchain, the crime chain of choice.

他们会尽可能多地将资金跨链到某种半匿名、难以追踪或难以冻结的资产，并尽快把钱转出去，送到那个不在乎的柬埔寨诈骗交易所。

They're gonna try and bridge as much as they can into something semi anonymous or hard to track or hard to freeze, and they're gonna try and get it out as best they can quickly and get it to that Cambodian fraud exchange that doesn't care.

这会推高价格。

And this will push prices.

在钱包即将被冻结前的十五分钟里，一个不关心价格的卖家会尽可能多地抛售，他根本不太在意价格。

A price insensitive seller selling as much as he can in the fifteen minutes before his wallet start to get frozen really doesn't care that much about price.

他很可能以很差的价格进行交易。

He's probably gonna trade at bad prices.

所以当你看到朝鲜发动黑客攻击时，你应该盯着屏幕。

So like when you see North Korea doing a hack, you wanna sit at the screen.

你要站在朝鲜人的对立面，因为他们会以很差的价格抛售。

You wanna be on the other side of North Koreans because they're gonna be selling at bad prices.

这种现象同样适用于模因币。

And this goes through to meme coins as well.

我们之前讨论过小币种的负面趋势效应，对吧？

We talked about these negative trend effects with the smaller coins, right?

而模因币是小币种中最小的。

And meme coins are the smallest in the small coin.

所以不仅存在负面趋势效应，在此之后，当图表交易者看到图表上的趋势时，他看到的是动量。

So not only is there negative trend effects, downstream of that, when a chart guy sees a trend on a chart, what he's seeing is momentum.

但如果我们知道的不仅是没有动量，反而存在负动量，当你看到一个 meme 币图表上出现这种完美的看涨旗形之类形态时——尤其是那种未在交易所上市的小币种——你就知道这是人为制造的。

But if we know that not only do we not have momentum, but we have negative momentum, and if you see a chart that looks like this perfect bull flag or whatever on a Memcoin chart, a small one, not one that's listed on exchanges, you know that that's artificially created.

这种形态在如此低的市值和规模下，根本不会自然发生。

That's something that does not happen in nature at this market cap and size.

你几乎可以断定，这就是犯罪行为。

And you can almost bet that that's crime.

当你在加密货币中看到犯罪迹象时，你应当根据其潜在空间大小，选择反向交易或顺势交易。

And when you see crime in crypto, you wanna either trade against it or trade alongside with it depending on how much it's got to go.

因此，对于 meme 币，当前玩家正在寻找机会。

And so with meme coins, the player is finding things right now.

一件极其容易让你发疯的事情是：找到一个在推特上被所有人吹捧的 meme 币图表，然后完全避开它。

One of the things that will absolutely take your sanity that's very easy to do is is to find a meme coin chart that is being shield by everyone on Twitter and have nothing to do with it.

只需查看买卖这些币的钱包，你就会发现总是那三个钱包在反复买卖下一个币种。

Just look at the wallets that buy and sell it, and you'll find the same three wallets buying and selling the next one.

所以，当你看到一个成功的钱包操作时，就在它下一步行动之前提前入场。

So you see a successful wallet, and you get in on the next play before it.

一旦你看到他们开始支撑行情，让图表看起来像一件精美的艺术品时，他们就是在花钱犯罪，这时你就该买入了。

And as soon as you see them starting to support the tape and make it look like a beautiful work of art, they're spending money to commit a crime, and that's when you wanna buy.

你需要大致猜出他们需要在什么位置离场获利，然后跟着他们的节奏入场，并在他们离场前及时退出。

And you wanna kinda have a rough guess where they need to get out to make money and ride along and jump out before they get out.

让我们继续谈谈这个在2024年兴起并广泛蔓延、至今在2025年仍持续存在的模因币和垃圾币现象。

So let's stay on this meme coin, shit coin phenomenon that sort of took off and was pervasive in 2024, continues to be pervasive into 2025 here.

很多人称这种现象为‘战壕’，指的是当前正在发生的、非Solana生态的这种拉盘基金模式。

A lot of people call it the trenches, this whole pump fund non Solana situation that's happening.

对于那些不关注加密市场的人，你能先解释一下这里到底发生了什么吗？

For people who are not paying attention to crypto markets, can you first explain what is actually happening here?

然后，你之前提到了‘犯罪’，我很想请你进一步展开谈谈。

And then can you talk about you started to talk about it with the crime, but I'd love for you to expand.

人们究竟是如何在这个市场上找到优势的？从外部看，这似乎纯粹是堕落的赌博。

How do people actually find edge in this market that appears to be from the outside looking in, nothing but degenerate gambling?

这里没有任何基本面。

There's no fundamentals.

这与任何东西都无关。

This isn't tied to anything.

没有任何真实价值。

There's no real value.

这基本上纯粹是随机驱动的供需关系。

It is more or less just pure supply and demand randomly driven.

而且少于

And less than

因为费用如此高昂且具有掠夺性，这显然是对世界造成净负面影响的情况。

that because the fees are so high and so extractive, and it's obviously a net negative value for the world type situation.

对吧？

Right?

那么，当面对强大的庄家优势时，你如何找到优势呢？

So how do you find edge when there's a really strong house edge against you, right?

所以现在可能是讨论加密市场整体EEO成因，然后深入探讨模因币的好时机。

So it's probably a good spot to talk about what causes the EEO of crypto markets in general and then get into memes.

因此，我们在加密货币整体以及单个链上都看到了资本的黏性。

So we've got sticky in capital, and sticky capital in crypto as a whole but within a chain.

一旦少量资本进入Solana，就会在链上流动并引发更多的模因币上涨。

So once a little bit of capital gets into Solana, it washes around and creates further meme coin pumps.

去年我们就看到了Bonk和Dog with Pat的情况。

And so we saw that last year with Bonk and then Dog with Pat.

这引发了上千次模因币的上涨，只是残留流动性不断翻腾的结果。

That created a thousand meme coin pumps, just the residual liquidity flushing frothing around.

这意味着，少量资本从比特币流向Solana链。

And so what that means is a small amount of, for example, capital flowing out of Bitcoin into Solana chain.

这两者是完全不同的事情。

And those are two separate things.

并不是所有东西都只是加密货币。

Like, it's not all just crypto.

要把资金抽出来非常麻烦，所以通常根本不会发生。

To get it back out is such a ball ache that it generally doesn't happen.

所以它会泛起泡沫，制造出巨额流动性的假象，但这并不真实。

So it froths around and creates this illusion of massive liquidity, which isn't true.

因此，结果就是，任何聪明的人都明白，你必须在流动性还在时抓住它，因为当你需要它时，它肯定已经消失了。

And so the upshot of that is that anyone who's smart realizes that you have to take the liquidity while it's there because it sure as hell won't be there when you want it.

我们接下来要讨论的是对杠杆以及具有彩票特征资产的需求。

The next thing that we've got is we've got desire for leverage and things with lottery ticket like characteristics.

你看到的情况是，我们更容易被故事打动，而不是数学。

And you see the situation where we're wired for story much better than maths.

那个债券交易员的故事是，他投入了500美元，现在变成了八位数。

And the story of the bond guy put in $500, and now it's 8 figures.

他经历了多次八位数的回撤，但一路坚持并发布了这些经历。

And he held through multiple eight figure drawdowns and bull posted it the whole way.

他从1000万美元跌到200万美元，现在又涨到了5000万美元。

And he went down from $10,000,000 down to 2,000,000, and now he's 50,000,000.

这个故事是一个人类故事，我们天生就容易被这种故事吸引。

And, like, that story is a human story that we're wired to.

这就是加密货币的 beating heart 和灵魂。

And this is the beating heart and soul of crypto.

每当你看到小人物赢得胜利时，那一定是一种观念病毒。

Like whenever you see the little guy gets a win, that's something that you can bet is an idea virus.

这是一种会传播的病毒。

It's a virus that spreads.

我曾测试过这一点，比如在向我那些非加密交易的员工介绍 Memcoin 交易时。

And I've tested this like Memcoin trading when I introduced my non crypto trading employees to it.

它像可卡因一样上瘾。

It's addictive like crack is.

所以加密货币的下一个阶段是，我们的产品规模非常小。

So the next EDO of crypto is that we've got really small on our offerings.

这就像加州旅馆，你总是在赌场里，却永远无法停止下注。

It's like Hotel California, you're always up at the casino, but you can never stop buying.

而且我们大规模地表现出对价格敏感的行为。

And we've got pricing sensitive behavior en masse.

我们有人买特朗普，因为他们喜欢特朗普。

We've got people buying Trump because they like Trump.

我们有人追随煤炭，追随网红，还有人把自己的身份与一个邪教绑定在一起。

We've got people following coal, following influencers, and we've got people who are making their identity tied to a cult.

所以我属于XRP军团，任何成为你身份一部分的东西都会让你变得愚蠢，并且你会出现价格不敏感的行为。

So I'm part of the XRP army, and anything that you make part of your identity makes you stupid, and you've got price insensitive behavior.

接下来，我们的钱包是公开的。

The next thing is we've got our wallets are public.

例如，我大量持有名为Retardio的模因币，原因很多，你可能会笑，但我有基本面的理由。

So for example, I'm a large holder of a meme coin called Retardio for a bunch of, you're gonna laugh, but I'll say fundamental reasons.

如果其他Retardio的大户看到我的钱包开始抛售，我就得给出解释。

If the other whales in Retardio saw my wallet start dumping, I'd have some questions to answer.

他们绝对会知道，因为钱包是公开的。

They would absolutely know that, like wallets are public.

之后，退出流动性的需求是加密货币中最重要、压倒性的特征。

And after that, the desire for exit liquidity is the biggest, overwhelmingly the biggest, idiom of crypto.

加密货币用户的行为可能看起来很愚蠢，但他们并不傻。

It's the desire crypto people might seem stupid, but they're not stupid.

我们都知道，那只戴着可爱帽子的狗的图片根本不值36亿美元。

We know that this picture of a dog with a cute hat on it is not worth $3,600,000,000.

直觉上，每个人都知道这是一场幻觉，迟早会破灭。

Like, intuitively, everyone knows that that's a delusion that is gonna come crashing down to earth at some point.

所以每个人都知道，当超额流动性出现时，他们都会抓住机会套现。

So everyone knows and everyone is gonna take the excess liquidity when it's on offer.

当零售层面的超额流动性到来时，他们必须接盘，因为这种机会不会一直存在。因此，由于我们缺乏坚实的基本面，进出市场都存在摩擦。

And when the retail excess liquidity arrives, they have to take it because it's not gonna be And so what this leads to is because we don't have proper fundamentals, you've got friction on the way in, friction on the way out.

正向反馈循环可能大量存在，这就是为什么动量和趋势效应如此强劲，但同时也导致了2022年山寨币平均跌幅高达98%。

Positive feedback loops can abound, which is why momentum and trend effects are so much stronger, but it's also Altcoin's had 98% average bear market in 2022.

就像，山寨币的熊市简直惨不忍睹。

Like, it's just like, the bear markets in altcoins are just horrific.

因此，在之前的周期中，风投和创始人很大程度上都在肆意收割。

And so to a large degree in previous cycles, VCs just took the piss and founders took the piss.

这完全是掠夺性的。

It was hugely extractive.

80%的加密货币交易者最终亏了钱。

80% of people who traded crypto lost money over time.

这完全是掠夺性的。

It's just a hugely extractive.

所有对加密货币的批评都是完全合理且真实的。

Like, all the criticisms of crypto are absolutely valid and true.

因此，模因币就是对此的一种回应。

And so meme coins are a reaction to that.

与其搞这些虚假的治理代币和一堆复杂的机制——实际上大多数加密货币变体都在试图让代币规则尽可能接近庞氏飞轮，因为我们知道庞氏骗局会上涨， blah blah blah，你只想尽可能接近庞氏飞轮，又不至于进监狱。

So instead of this sort of fake ass governance token and we've got all these complicated mechanisms, which are basically most crypto variations are trying to get the rules of the crypto token as close as possible to a Ponzi flywheel because we know that Ponzis go up and blah blah blah, and you wanna make it as close to a Ponzi flywheel as you can without going to jail.

所以，与其搞庞氏飞轮和各种变体，不如直接回归加密货币真正的产品市场契合点：人们只是想找个东西下注，那就下注吧。

So instead of that, like Ponzi flywheels and mutating variations, we go straight to what's the true product market fit of crypto, which is people just want something to bet Like, let's bet on it.

人们想对价值2000美元或5000美元的资产下注。

People wanna bet on a $2,000 or a $5,000 asset.

就像你在电话前告诉我的，你朋友上周末赚了八位数。

Like you were telling me before the call, your friend pulled 8 figures out over the weekend.

小人物，英雄，冠军。

Little guy, hero, champion.

为那个家伙加油。

Cheer for that guy.

每当你看到这种情况，就知道人们会感兴趣。

Anytime you see that, you know that people are gonna get interest.

而迷因以一种非常朴实的方式做到了这一点，没有任何虚假的马克·安德森风格。

And memes do that in a way that's really unpretentious without any of this fake Marc Andreessen.

这是货币的未来，技术的未来，也是普通人可以参与的方式。

It's the future of money and the future of technology, and it's a way that a normie can get.

哦，就是一只戴着帽子的狗。

Oh, it's a dog with a hat on it.

可爱。

Cute.

哦，狗狗币。

Oh, doge.

哦，他们把新部门命名为狗狗币。

Oh, they called the new department doge.

我们天生喜欢故事，这些故事比有人告诉你‘这是加密货币的三倍策略’更具传播性和病毒性。

We're wired for story, and those stories are much more spreadable or memetic than someone telling you, oh, here's a sharp three strategy for crypto.

一个更好的故事是，这个人把一千美元变成了千万美元，还为他的家族实现了财务自由。

A much better story is this guy turned a thousand bucks into 10,000,000 and he's retired his bloodline.

不过，对此很难不抱怀疑态度，因为这本质上是零和游戏，你说纯粹的产品市场契合只是赌博，对吧？

It's hard to not be cynical about that though because it is ultimately zero sum and you say that the pure product market fit is just betting, right, and gambling.

我确信有些人最终会轻视加密货币。

And I'm sure there are people who are ultimately dismissive of crypto.

我想对比一下，回到你对话开始时提到的一件事，也是加密货币支持者经常谈论的：金融的去中心化。

So I want to contrast that and bring this way back around to something you were saying at the beginning of the conversation and something that people who are pro crypto talk about a lot, which is the decentralization of finance.

我想谈谈你提到的想法：你或许可以将你的趋势策略部署在HyperLiquid L1上创建一个金库，允许任何人无需KYC就向你的策略投入资金。

And I want to talk about this idea where you were saying you might be able to take your trend program and create a vault on the hyper liquid L1 and allow anyone to allocate capital to your program without KYC.

对于那些听到这十个词中有九个都不明白的人，我希望你能简单解释一下这是什么，以及为什么这是一个如此有趣的机遇。

For people for whom nine out of 10 of those words didn't make any sense, I was hoping you could quickly explain what is it and why it's such an interesting opportunity.

让我们比较一下拥有一个像Coinbase这样的账户和自己保管加密货币的区别。

So let's compare having an account with, say, Coinbase with self custody of your own coins.

如果我有一个Coinbase账户，我会把我的银行账户连接到Coinbase，然后购买一些比特币。

If I have an account with Coinbase, I hook my bank account to Coinbase, I buy some Bitcoin.

Coinbase持有我的比特币，而我必须信任他们不会因为某种原因封禁我的账户或设置限制等等。

Coinbase holds my Bitcoin, and I have to trust that they don't ban my account for some reason or put a block on it or whatever.

在去中心化金融中，我对自己持有的加密货币负起责任。

In DeFi, I'm taking responsibility for my own coins.

我拥有自己的钱包，而这个钱包不与我的电子邮件、地址或国籍绑定。

I'm having my own wallet, and that wallet is not tied to my email address, my address, my nation.

它只是一个地址。

It's just an address.

这个地址可以存储加密货币。

That address can hold coins.

你可以把这些币投入到我想做、实际上已经在做的项目中：有一个新的第一层区块链，叫做Hyperliquid，这是一个非常快速、高性能的区块链。

You can dump those coins into what I'd like to do, what I am doing actually, is there's a new layer one, which is a new type of blockchain called Hyperliquid, which is a very, very fast high performance blockchain.

第一个优势是，它的性能足够高，可以在区块链上实现订单簿。

So the first one is high performance enough to have an order book in the blockchain.

它在区块链的规则中内置了多种订单簿原语。

And it's got a bunch of order book primitives built into the rules of the blockchain.

因此你可以进行基差交易。

So you can do basis trades.

你可以进行订单簿相关的操作。

You can do order book stuff.

我的所有交易功能都会直接部署在这里，包括基差交易、套利交易以及各种其他操作。

All of my trim features will go straight on there as well as basis trades and carry trades and all kinds of stuff.

这是启动这一切的绝佳方式。

It's a very, very great way of starting it.

我不想提那个H F词，因为它们还处于法律灰色地带。

I don't wanna say the h f word because they're not in legal territory.

这只是一个智能合约。

It's just a smart contract.

你可以把钱存进去。

You can put money in.

你可以把钱取出来。

You can pull money out.

它赚取的是趋势系统所产生的收益。

It earns what the trend system earns.

你不必相信我所说的我的趋势系统每年以x波动率回报x金额。

You don't have to trust me when I say that my trend system returns x amount per year at x vol.

你只需在区块链上查看即可。

You can just look it up on the blockchain.

一切都是公开的，所以我无法伪造我的业绩记录。

It's all public knowledge, so I can't lie about my track record.

你拥有即时流动性。

You've got instant liquidity.

你不需要向你的钱包透露你的姓名。

You don't have to tell your name to your wallet.

加密货币趋势策略的一大优势是，它与传统趋势不相关。

And the big advantage of trend in crypto is that it's non correlated to regular trend.

如果你作为散户交易者尝试进行传统金融的趋势交易，即使只有50万美元，也会因为合约规模而遇到问题。

And that if you try and do TradFi trend as a retail trader, even with half $1,000,000, you're gonna find problems just because of contract sizes.

但你可以用2000美元运行，完全可以开展一个相当多元化的加密货币趋势跟踪策略。

But you can run with $2,000, you can run quite a diversified crypto trend following program.

因此，这非常适合散户投资者。

So it's perfect for retail.

我骨子里是个散户。

I'm a retail guy at heart.

我不是什么精明的人。

I'm not a sophisticated guy.

我骨子里是个散户。

I'm a retail guy at heart.

我想看到小人物成功。

I wanna see the little guys make it.

在我看来，手头只有少量资金的散户在加密货币中应该提高波动性，承担一些风险，并为这些风险获得回报。

And in my view, a little guy who's got a small amount of money in crypto should be cranking his vol up and taking some risks and getting paid for those risks.

为加密货币中所有令人不快的性质和各种糟糕的事情获得回报，因为这些不会永远持续下去。

And getting paid for all the distasteful nature and all the bad stuff that happens in crypto because it won't last forever.

加密货币基本上是在快速经历传统金融世界从1880年到1929年间所经历的每一次金融恐慌和所有问题。

Crypto is basically speed running every financial panic and everything that the traditional finance world figured out in 1880 or so through 1929.

就像我们曾在传统金融世界中见过的那个贪婪的寄生虫，现在也出现在加密货币中。

Like, single grifty barnacle attached to TradFi world that we've seen in crypto.

如果你回到一百年前，加密货币圈的人们太聪明了，不会去读历史书，然后恍然大悟：哦，原来如此。

You go back in time a hundred years, and crypto guys are just too smart to go read a history book and figure out, oh, yeah.

人们以前就尝试过庞氏飞轮。

People have tried Ponzi Flywheels before.

人们以前也经历过银行挤兑。

People have tried banking panics before.

人们以前就试过部分准备金制度。

People have tried fractional reserves before.

人们以前就试过所有这些骗局。

People have tried all these scams before.

任何新技术都附带着一个狡诈的藤壶。

And any new technology has a grifty barnacle attached to it.

当互联网出现时，互联网——我知道这一点，因为我亲身经历过。

When the Internet came, Internet and I know this because I was there.

互联网在初期有90%都是骗局。

Internet was 90% grift at the start.

因此，把加密货币看作是一种骗局是错误的，因为加密货币本身并不是骗局。

And so it's a mistake to look at crypto as being this scam because crypto was a scam.

比特币已经运行了十六年。

Bitcoin's been going for sixteen years.

但让我告诉你一个可怕的故事。

But let me tell you an awful story.

我以平均每枚23美元的价格卖出了1000个比特币。

I sold a thousand Bitcoins at an average price of $23.

糟糕的故事。

Awful story.

我觉得这还没那个用比特币买披萨的人花的钱多糟糕。

I don't think that's as bad as how much did the guy pay for the pizza in Bitcoin.

哦，对啊。

Oh, yeah.

我的意思是

I mean

这太糟糕了。

This is terrible.

而且当时，你根本没法用比特币做任何事。

And, you know, at the time, you couldn't do anything with Bitcoin.

我当时需要钱。

And I needed the money.

我需要这笔钱来维持生活。

I needed the money to live off.

那时候你根本没法用比特币做任何事。

You just couldn't do anything with Bitcoin.

比特币从4美元涨到32美元，看起来又要直线下跌到1美元，于是我卖了。

It went from $4 to $32, and it looked like it was going straight back down to $1, and I sold.

我手里还留着一些比特币，幸运的是，我保住了它们。

I had Bitcoins left, and thankfully, got those.

然后一家交易所，Mt.

And then an exchange, Mt.

Gox倒闭了，被偷了，但我最终把它们要了回来。

Gox went bust and stolen, and I just got them back.

把比特币看作每年都在变得更合法，这是一种错误。

It's a mistake to view it as it was when every year it gets a little bit more legitimate.

比特币已经运行了十六年。

Bitcoin's been running for sixteen years.

它从未被黑过。

It's never been hacked.

它至今仍像当初一样正常运行。

It still works exactly as functioned.

比特币作为货币其实并不实用，因为它的价格波动太大，但它确实有其应用场景。

Like Bitcoin is not really useful as money because it fluctuates in price so much, but it definitely has a use case.

我住在泰国普吉岛，我的小村庄和小岛上挤满了俄罗斯富人，他们完全通过稳定币和比特币转移财富。

Like, I live in Phuket, Thailand, and my little village and my little island is overrun with rich Russians who get their wealth out entirely through stablecoins and Bitcoin.

他们无法使用信用卡。

They don't have access to credit cards.

他们无法使用SWIFT银行系统。

They don't have access to Swift banking system.

在我这条街上，有五个像街头面摊一样的小型空调亭，你可以走过去转账一些比特币，他们会给你一袋装有10万美元现金的袋子。

And in my street, there's five little air condition kiosks that look like street food noodle stands where you can walk up and transfer some Bitcoin, and they'll give you a sack with a $100,000 in cash in it.

这就在泰国一个岛屿的路边发生。

Like, this is just by the side of the road in an island in Thailand.

那这是好事还是坏事呢？

And so is that a good thing or a bad thing?

如果你要选使用场景的话，瑞士在过去五百年里在洗钱和逃税方面做得相当不错。

Well, if you had to pick use cases, Switzerland's done pretty well out of money laundering and tax evasion over the last five hundred years.

我觉得基本的情况是，比特币是有用途的。

Like, I think the base case is that Bitcoin has a use.

占全球金融的百分之多少？

What percentage of global finance?

最坏的情况是，它占全球金融的一小部分但意义重大。

Worst case scenario, it's a small but significant fraction of global finance.

我个人认为，今年是第一次可以明确地说，再也没有第二好的加密货币了。

And my personal opinion is that this year was the first time that you could really say for sure that there's no second best crypto.

我认为直到今年之前，这还是有争议的。

I think that was open to debate until this year.

我觉得比特币不会再消失了。

I don't think Bitcoin's going away anymore.

对于今天刚入门的散户交易员，你会给出什么建议？

What advice would you give to a new retail trader getting started today?

好吧。

Okay.

作为新手散户交易员，如果你觉得自己在外汇市场有优势，那其实并没有。

So as a new retail trader, if you think you have edge in the FX markets, you don't.

如果你觉得自己在期货短线交易中有优势，那其实也没有。

If you think you have edge scalping into futures, you don't.

成熟一点吧。

Grow up.

认真说，成熟一点吧。

Like, seriously, grow up.

你需要利用今天已有的技能、技术和基础设施找到赚钱的方法。

You need to find a way to make money today with the skills, the technology, the infrastructure that you have today.

你可能希望拥有1000万美元的资本。

Now you might want to have $10,000,000 in capital.

你可能想要一个开发团队。

You might wanna have a team of devs.

你可能需要擅长数学并能编程。

You might wanna be good at maths and be able to program.

所以，典型的极客做法就是推迟这一天的到来，只是不断学习。

And so the classic nerd thing to do is to put that day of reckoning off and just learn stuff.

最终你会开始一个本科量化子系统，成为一个虚假的人。

And you'll end up starting an undergrad quant sub stack and being a fake person.

作为零售交易员进入这个领域的方法，是找到最容易坐下的扑克桌。

The way to get into it as a retail trader is to find the easiest possible poker table to sit at.

毫无疑问，最容易坐下的桌子在加密货币市场。

By far, the easiest tables to sit at are in crypto.

然后你想找到今天能赚钱的方法。

And then you wanna find what you can make money with today.

所以，如果你今天作为一个全新的交易员进入，我不认为你能深入理解加密货币市场的独特性。

So if you were coming in as a brand new trader today, I wouldn't think you would be able to understand the idiosyncrasy of the crypto market at a deep level.

我不认为你能在我之前识别链上犯罪并从中获利，赶在别人之前行动。

I wouldn't think you'd be able to compete with me in identifying on chain crime and monetizing it before people got out ahead of you.

我不认为你能做到其中任何一件事。

I wouldn't think you could do any of that.

我认为你可以做简单的趋势策略。

I would think that you could do simple trend strategies.

我认为你可以做简单的套利策略。

I think you could do simple carry strategies.

我认为你可以做简单的基差交易策略，这些策略的利润非常可观。

I think you can do simple basis trading strategies, and those are phenomenally profitable.

只要你不是大规模交易，作为零售交易员，你可以在加密货币中实现每年超过100%的复利收益。

You can target over a 100% a year compounding in crypto as a retail trader as long as you're, you know, not trading size.

这正是我所做的。

And that's what I do.

然后不断学习，在实践中积累经验。

And then learn more and learn by doing.

最后一个问题给你。

Last question for you.

我这个季节问每位嘉宾的同一个问题：告诉我，除了你的工作之外，你今天对什么充满热情？书籍、电影、音乐，任何真正吸引你、让你着迷的东西。

It's the same question I'm asking every guest this season, which is to tell me about what you're passionate about today outside of what you do for job, books, movies, music, something that's really caught your attention and your passion.

对我来说，担任一家公司的首席执行官意味着我不得不大幅缩小我的专注范围。

For me, being a CEO of a company has meant that I've had to narrow my focus significantly.

所以我有很多爱好。

So I have a bunch of hobbies.

我是一名终身习武者。

Like, I'm a lifelong martial artist.

我练巴西柔术。

I'm a Brazilian jiu jitsu.

我的爱好、兴趣以及生活中的一切，都不得不让位于我的CEO职责，然后是维持健康所需的一些事情，再就是偶尔、季节性地做些交易。

And the position of my hobbies and my interests and everything in my life has had to come down to I have CEO ing, and then I have enough stuff to keep me healthy, and then periodically, seasonally, I trade.

说实话，我的生活没什么内容。

So I don't have much of a life, to be honest.