英国预算案将税收推至历史新高

这里是《金融时报》的早安播报。

Good morning from the Financial Times.

今天是11月27日星期四，为您带来FTNE简报。

Today is Thursday, November 27, and this is your FTNE's briefing.

加密货币本周持续受挫，而印度钢铁产量激增却带来了令人遗憾的副作用。

Crypto just can't catch a break this week, and India's booming steel production comes with a pretty unfortunate side effect.

另外不知您是否注意到，英国预算案就像世界杯足球赛般引人瞩目。

Plus, if you haven't noticed, The UK budget is like the Feet's World Cup.

我们对此极为重视。

We take it very seriously.

所以我们将深入解析昨日公布的所有数据。

So we're gonna geek out over all of yesterday's numbers.

我是马克·菲利皮诺，以下是今日晨间要闻。

I'm Mark Filippino, and here's the news you need to start your day.

标普全球正对全球最大稳定币发出预警。

S and P Global is raising concerns about the world's biggest stablecoin.

评级机构周三发布报告，将Tether资产的评估从'受限'下调至'薄弱'。

The ratings agency released a note on Wednesday downgrading its assessment of Tether's assets from constrained to weak.

这是标普给出的最低评级。

It's the lowest measure that S and P doles out.

Tether运营着一种美元背书的稳定币，通常被称为USDT。

Tether operates a dollar backed stablecoin, often called USDT.

这是最大的稳定币，流通量约达1840亿美元。

It's the biggest stablecoin with about a $184,000,000,000 in circulation.

这类数字现金通常由美国国债等高质量资产背书，但标普指出Tether支撑稳定币的高风险资产（如比特币、贵金属和公司债券）比例有所上升。

Now this form of digital cash is usually backed by high quality assets like US treasuries, but S and P flagged an increase in Tethr's high risk assets backing the stablecoin like Bitcoin, precious metals, and corporate bonds.

这些高风险资产目前已占总储备的24%。

Those now account for 24% of total reserves.

评级机构还警告称Tether在储备管理方面存在'透明度有限'的问题。

The ratings agency also warned about Tethr's, quote, limited transparency on reserve management.

Tether回应表示强烈不同意报告中的描述。

Tethr responded saying it strongly disagrees with the characterizations presented in the report.

英国财政大臣瑞秋·里夫斯昨日公布了她的预算案。

UK chancellor Rachel Reeves set out her budget yesterday.

这标志着政府财政政策一年中最重要的日子。

It marked the most important day of the year for the government's fiscal policy.

该预算将使英国税负达到历史新高。

The budget takes The UK's tax burden to an all time high.

到2029年议会任期结束时，税收将占GDP的38%。

It'll reach 38% of GDP by the end of the parliament in 2029.

接下来由《金融时报》经济编辑山姆·弗莱明为我们详细解读预算案的各项要点。

Here to walk us through all the finer points of the budget is the Feet's economics editor, Sam Fleming.

你好，山姆。

Hi, Sam.

你好，马克。

Hi, Mark.

那么山姆，请为我们概述一下昨天预算案中公布的其他关键细节。

So, Sam, give us a rundown of the other key details announced in yesterday's budget.

好的。

Sure.

这是一份增税预算，到议会结束时的财政年度2930年，将增加260亿英镑。

So this was a tax raising budget, and it's a £26,000,000,000 increase by the end of the parliament, which runs to fiscal year 2930.

部分原因是预算责任办公室（政府的财政监督机构）下调了生产力前景预期，同时也是为了资助更高的支出承诺，并为政府的财政规则建立更大的缓冲，这些规则要求政府在议会结束时平衡当前预算。

The reason for this is partly a downgrade to the productivity outlook by the Office of Budget Responsibility, which is the government's fiscal watchdog, but also to fund higher spending commitments and to build a bigger buffer against the government's fiscal rules, which require it to balance the current budget by the end of the parliament.

马克，我要补充一点，这次预算责任办公室（OBR）异常地提前发布了预算报告，甚至在财政大臣站起来发表演讲之前，这使得这次事件异常混乱。

I should add, Mark, an unusually, the OBR, the Office of Budget Responsibility, accidentally released its report on the budget even before the chancellor has stood up to make a speech, which made this an unusually chaotic event.

是啊。

Yeah.

这对所有人来说都相当意外。

It was it was quite the surprise for everyone.

萨姆，我发现我们同事写的一些内容对理解预算非常有帮助。

Sam, I found something that our colleagues wrote really helpful when it came to the budget.

他们说这份预算需要满足几个不同的受众群体。

They said that this needed to satisfy a few different audiences.

我想逐一分析，首先看看里夫斯所属的工党成员对预算案有何看法？

I wanna take them one at a time, first with how did members of Reeves' own Labour Party feel about the budget?

因为你知道，工党目前正面临巨大压力。

Because, you know, the party is under a ton of pressure right now.

我认为工党议员对这份预算案的反应总体上是积极的。

I think the response from Labour MPs will be broadly positive to this budget.

其中有不少针对高收入者的增税措施，这部分应该会受到较好反响。

There were plenty of taxes which hit higher earners, so that will have gone down fairly well.

该预算宣布取消现有对两个子女的儿童福利申领上限，这一政策因其对儿童贫困的影响而一直受到工党议员的强烈反对。

There was a budget that announced a removal of an existing cap on child benefit claims to two children, which has been extremely unpopular among Labour MPs because of its impact on child poverty.

总体而言，这是一套旨在通过增税来为更高支出提供资金的方案。

And then broadly speaking, this was a package which aims to raise taxes in order to fund higher spending.

工党议员们总体上会对此表示欢迎，尤其是考虑到许多人原本预期会出台更令人担忧的所得税上调措施。

It will have been broadly welcomed by labor MPs, especially given a rather more worrying prospect of income tax hikes, which many were expecting going into it.

显然，衡量预算成功与否的关键指标之一是市场反应，尤其是国债市场的反应。

Now, obviously, one of the key indicators of a budget success is how the markets react to it, especially the gilt market.

那边的反应如何？

What's been the response there?

当预算责任办公室意外发布预算报告时，市场出现了很多波动，正如你所预料的那样。

When the OBR accidentally released its budget report, was a lot of volatility in the markets as you'd expect.

自那以后，市场似乎已经稳定了不少，并且对这份预算的反应总体上相当平静。

The market seemed to have settled a fair bit since then and have broadly been fairly calm in response to this budget.

我认为原因首先是财政大臣决定大幅增加她为应对财政规则而预留的缓冲空间。

And I think the reasons for that are firstly, the decision of the chancellor to strongly increase the amount of headroom she holds against her fiscal rules.

而且我认为，尽管生产率增长被下调，但经济前景并没有他们预期的那样糟糕，这让他们总体上感到安心。

And I think broadly, they were reassured, but the economic outlook, despite the downgrade to productivity growth, wasn't as bad as they'd been led to expect.

特别是预算责任办公室的经济预测中存在许多相互抵消的因素，在生产率下调损害收入的同时也帮助了收入。

In particular, there were quite a lot of crosscurrents in the OBR economic forecast, which helped revenue even as the productivity downgrade hurt revenue.

这意味着，实际上，经济预测在本次预算前总体上是相对温和的，这为雷切尔·里夫斯提供了增加预算缓冲空间所需的余地。

And that meant that, really, the economic forecast was overall relatively benign going into this budget, and that gave Rachel Reeves the space she needed to boost her budget headroom.

最后，也许是最重要的，我想谈谈公众的反应。

Lastly, and maybe most importantly, I wanna talk about the reaction by the public.

这将如何影响英国公民？

How is this going to impact British citizens?

嗯，瑞秋·里夫斯决定不上调所得税率的原因之一在于，这将是一项非常显眼的增税措施。

Well, one of the reasons Rachel Reeves decided not to raise income tax rates is it will be such a visible tax increase.

因此，我们立刻就能看出他们的基本所得税率是否上涨了1%或2%。

So we'll immediately see if their basic rate of income tax went up by one or two p.

那将是一个极具震撼性的时刻。

That would be a very seismic, really, moment.

所以她通过延长个人税收起征点冻结期来增税——这意味着当人们收入增长时，可能会被划入更高税率区间——这能为政府筹集更多资金，但没那么显眼。

So the way she's raising taxes by extending a freeze on personal tax thresholds, which effectively means as people's earnings go up, they can tip into higher tax bands, raises more money for the government, but isn't as visible.

总体而言，这将拖累可支配收入，并对生活水平前景造成压力。

Overall, this will drag on disposable incomes and drag on the outlook for living standards.

我认为另一点在于，虽然预算责任办公室下调生产率预期并未对财政大臣造成整体上的重大财政冲击。

I think the other point about this is that while the productivity downgrade by the OBR didn't deliver a massive fiscal hit overall to the chancellor.

但这仍是对英国增长前景相当可悲的控诉。

It is still a pretty sorry indictment of the growth outlook for The UK.

如果未来几年生产率增长如预算责任办公室所预测的那样非常疲弱，这将意味着生活水平和收入改善的速度大幅放缓，从而为英国经济整体描绘出一幅相当黯淡的前景。

If productivity growth is very weak in the coming years, as the OBR is suggesting, that is going to mean much slower growth in improvements in living standards and incomes, and therefore, a pretty dismal outlook for The UK economy in general.

萨姆·弗莱明是《金融时报》的经济学编辑。

Sam Fleming is the Feet's economics editor.

谢谢，萨姆。

Thanks, Sam.

谢谢，马克。

Thanks, Mark.

过去十年间，印度的钢铁产量翻了一番，这使其成为全球第二大钢铁生产国。

India has doubled its steel production in the past decade, and that has made the country the world's second largest steelmaker.

但该行业造成了大量污染，目前正面临迫切要求其脱碳的呼声。

But the industry creates a ton of pollution, and there are urgent calls to decarbonize the sector.

我们请来了《金融时报》孟买分社社长克里斯·凯就此进行讨论。

I'm joined by the Feet's Mumbai bureau chief Chris Kay to discuss this.

你好，克里斯。

Hi, Chris.

你好。

Hi there.

那么，印度钢铁行业增长背后的原因是什么？

So what's behind the growth of India's steel industry?

是的。

Yeah.

正如你指出的，印度以极快的速度扩张了这个行业。

So as you pointed out, India has expanded that sector at a rapid clip.

该行业确实在增长，以支持该国不断扩张的经济，政府正努力进一步提升产能。

The industry is really growing to support the country's expanding economy, and the government is really trying to boost that capacity even further.

这使得印度在全球钢铁行业中独树一帜，而全球行业正面临需求放缓的困境。

And this makes India an outlier in the global industry, which is really struggling with slowing demand.

预计到2035年，印度钢铁行业每年将增长约6%，国内许多钢铁企业对此非常乐观。

Growth in the industry in India is forecast to rise by about 6% a year through 2035, and a lot of the country's steelmakers are very buoyant about this.

印度最大钢铁生产商之一塔塔钢铁的CEO最近告诉我们，由于所有尚未建成且投资不足的基础设施，印度是全球钢铁行业最好的发展故事。

The CEO of Tata Steel, one of the biggest producers here, recently told us that India is the best story for the steel industry globally because of all the infrastructure that's still to be built out and is underinvested in.

正如我提到的，污染因素在这一切中正招致大量批评。

So as I mentioned, the pollution factor in all this is, something that's drawing a lot of criticism.

污染有多严重？

How bad is that pollution?

确实如此。

Absolutely.

要知道，尽管印度在这方面是世界上的异类，但其钢铁行业的排放量也异常庞大。

You know, as much as India is an outlier in the world on this, it's also oversized in the amount of emissions it produces from the industry.

钢铁约占全国碳排放量的12%，是所有工业部门中最高的，甚至高于全球约8%的平均水平。

Steel accounts for about 12% of national carbon emissions, which is the highest of any industrial sector, and that's even larger than the global average of about 8%.

因此随着行业发展，这确实是个严重超标的问题。

So it's a real oversized problem here as it grows.

而且生产过程主要依赖煤炭且用量巨大，因为印度铁矿石质量较低，需要更多煤炭进行加工。

And the process is dominated by coal and large amounts of it because India's iron ore quality is low, so it needs more of that to process it.

约半数产量来自这些小型工厂，这些工厂往好了说监管不力，往往设备不足难以处理污染副作用，甚至常常根本不愿处理。

And about half of the production comes from these kind of smaller factories, which are poorly regulated to say the least and often less equipped to deal with the polluting side effects or even just often unwilling to do so.

这引发了居住在工厂附近的当地居民的诸多实际担忧。

So that's created a lot of on the ground concerns among locals who live close to these plants.

克里斯，我很好奇。

I'm curious, Chris.

印度是否面临来自国外的压力，要求其整顿这一行业？

Is India facing any pressure from outside the country to clean up the industry?

国际上压力也在不断增加，我认为最显著的是从明年开始，欧盟将实施碳边境调节机制（简称CBAM），本质上是对污染严重的海外生产商征税，以防止他们以廉价且污染严重的进口产品削弱欧盟工业。

Internationally, there is also pressure that is mounting, most notably, I think, from the start of next year when the EU will implement its carbon border adjustment mechanism, so CBAM in short, which is essentially a tax on polluting overseas producers to stop them undercutting EU industry with cheaper and dirty imports.

与中国等国家相比，预计印度将受到这些新规的格外严重影响。

And India is expected to be disproportionately affected by those new rules even compared with, say, China.

那么克里斯，你接下来关注什么？

So, Chris, what are you looking out for next?

政府或行业内部是否有任何努力来应对污染问题？

Are there any efforts from either the government or players from inside the industry to do anything about the pollution?

政府正试图制定新规，并可能提供财政激励措施，以鼓励使用更清洁的钢铁。

The government is trying to come up with some new rules and potentially financial incentives to encourage the use of cleaner steel.

我们看到一些大型生产商正朝这个方向采取措施，但要真正实现整个行业的清洁化，我认为还有很长的路要走。

And we are seeing some of the bigger producers take steps in that direction, but I think it's still a long way off to really cleaning up the industry as a whole.

比如当我参观印度最大的钢铁厂之一——由该国南部大型生产商JSW运营时，他们很热衷于展示正在进行的各项环保举措。

I mean, when I visited some of the largest steel plant in India run by JSW, which is a big producer here in the south of the country, they were keen to show off various efforts they are doing.

包括提高能源效率、在生产过程中更多使用可再生能源、开展碳捕获与绿色氢能等试点项目以减少煤炭用量和每吨排放。

So increasing energy efficiency, more use of renewable power in the process, various pilot projects in carbon capture and green hydrogen to reduce the amount of coal being used and the emissions per ton.

但即便如此，目前大多数采取这些措施的大型企业，其规模都还非常有限。

But even then, I think most of the big players who are doing this at the moment, it's very much on a small scale.

而且基本上他们都承认，像绿色氢能这类更环保燃料的大规模应用，目前在经济上完全不划算。

And basically, all of them concede that for wider use of greener fuel, such as green hydrogen, it's totally uneconomical at the moment and too expensive, they're saying.

政府需要大规模介入并提供财政激励，才能真正推动小型企业开始大规模实施清洁生产。

The government will have to step in with wide scale support and incentives to really push the smaller players to start cleaning it up on a bigger scale.

克里斯·凯伊是《金融时报》孟买分社社长。

Chris Kay is the Feet's Mumbai bureau chief.

谢谢，克里斯。

Thanks, Chris.

谢谢。

Thank you.

在我们结束之前，祝我们在美国的听众感恩节快乐，并快速插播一条节目预告。

Before we go, a very happy Thanksgiving to our listeners in The United States, and a quick programming note.

明天我们将推出特别节目，探讨人工智能在当前及未来全球国防工业中扮演的角色。

Tomorrow, we're gonna have a special edition of this show looking into the role artificial intelligence plays in the global defense industry now and in the future.

人们对AI应用于战争的最大担忧，就是AI实际做出决策的这种场景。

The biggest anxiety that people have around AI being used for warfare is this scenario where the AI is actually making decisions.

虽然目前尚未真正发生，但我认为这是军方领导人正在规划、筹备并积极建设的未来。

And though that's not happening right now per se, I I think it's a future that military leaders are planning for and and planning around and actively building.

明天请在你的播客订阅中留意这期节目。

Keep an eye out for that one in your podcast feed tomorrow.

你可以点击节目说明中的链接，免费阅读所有这些故事的更多内容。

You can read more on all these stories for free when you click the links in our show notes.

以上就是今天的《金融时报》每日新闻简报。

This has been your daily FT news briefing.

明天请继续关注最新商业新闻。

Check back tomorrow for the latest business news.

在商业与科学领域，创新始于想象的火花。

In business as in science, innovation begins with a spark of imagination.

它随着雄心成长，在挑战现状者身上最为闪耀。

It grows with ambition and shines brightest in those who challenge the status quo.

在帝国商学院，创新不是被教授的课程。

At Imperial Business School, innovation isn't taught.

而是我们的立身之本。

It's what defines us.

这就是我们在QS世界排名中位列第二的原因。

That's why we're number two in the QS world rankings.

您将与科技、工程和医学领域的杰出人才共同学习商业，激发创意，为未来的领导者铺就道路。

You'll study business alongside brilliant minds in technology, engineering, and medicine to spark ideas and shape pathways for the leaders of tomorrow.

搜索帝国商学院——科学即商业。

Search Imperial Business School, where science means business.

你好，我是欧文·沃克，英国《金融时报》驻新加坡记者。

Hi, I'm Owen Walker, the Feet Singapore correspondent.

12月，我将在新加坡主持英国《金融时报》亚洲大宗商品峰会，届时CEO、资深交易员、能源行业领袖及政策制定者将共议亚洲如何重塑全球大宗商品市场格局。

On the December, I'll be hosting the Feet Commodities Asia Summit in Singapore, where CEOs, senior traders, energy leaders, and policymakers will discuss how Asia is reshaping global commodity markets.

立即访问ft.com/commoditiesasia进行注册。

Register now at ft.com/commoditiesasia.

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Use the code FeetPodcast to get 20% off.