ChatGPT的平台策略+万亿美元GPU帝国+数据垃圾女王

互联网文化如何重塑世界各地的成人礼仪式？'跟我一起准备'视频又是如何触达新观众的？大家好，我是伊莎贝拉·鲁塞里尼。在欧莱雅集团最新一期《这不是美妆播客》中，我们将通过一位伦敦科技记者和一位正在筹备十五岁成人礼的墨西哥少女的视角，了解美妆如何塑造互联网生态。

How is Internet culture shaping coming of age rituals around the world? And how are get ready with me videos reaching a new audience? Hi there. I'm Isabella Roussellini. In the latest episode of this is not a beauty podcast from L'Oreal Group, we learn about how beauty is shaping the Internet from a London based tech journalist and a Mexican teenager preparing for her quinceanera.

立即在您喜爱的播客平台上收听。

Listen now on your favorite podcast platform.

我在开发者日最喜欢的时刻是，有个家伙朝我们走来。当时我们正在桌边吃零食，这人走过来问：'你是《硬分叉》的凯西吗？'然后就开始滔滔不绝说自己有多铁杆粉丝。你只能附和说'是啊'，其实他本人也上过《硬分叉》节目。

My favorite moment from Dev Day was when a guy came up to us. We were eating snacks there at our table, and this guy comes up and he's like, are you Casey from Hard Fork? And so he's just talking about how big a fan he is. And, like, you at one point are like, yeah. He's also on Hardfork.

结果那家伙大笑起来，根本不信你的话。他说'哦，这玩笑开得不错'，接着就拉着你自拍。天啊，我从未如此开心过。

And the guy starts laughing. Like, he doesn't believe you. He's just like, oh, that's that's a good one, jokester. And then proceeds to take a selfie with you. Oh, I've never been happier.

没错，那可是《硬分叉》史上的经典时刻——我试图指出节目另一位主持人时，对方完全懵圈地问'你在说什么胡话'

Yeah. That was that was a great moment in Hard Fork history where I tried to I pointed out the other host of the show, and he was just like, what are you talking

？你疯了吧。这段子太棒了。又一个

about? You're you're out of your mind. What a good bit. Another

《硬分叉》经典桥段——我假装节目还有另一位主持人。

classic Hard Fork bit, me pretending there's another host on the show.

我是凯文·鲁斯，《纽约时报》的科技专栏作家。

I'm Kevin Roose, the tech columnist at the New York Times.

我是Platformer的凯西·努恩。

I'm Casey Noon from Platformer.

这里是《硬分叉》。

And this is Hard Fork.

本周，我们将探访OpenAI开发者日，ChatGPT正在席卷网络。接着OpenAI与AMD达成重大合作。我们将为您揭秘这场价值万亿美元的AI芯片争夺战。最后，'烂片女王'凯蒂·纳托普洛斯将现身说法，讲述她用Sora生成的那些关于我和凯文的糟糕视频——她必将为此付出代价。

This week, we visit OpenAI developer day, and ChatGPT is eating the web. Then OpenAI makes a huge deal with AMD. We'll tell you about the trillion dollar battle over AI chips. And finally, slop queen Katie Natopoulos is here to talk about Sora and all the terrible videos she's making of me and Kevin, and she will pay for her crimes.

凯西，这又是OpenAI霸占新闻头条的一周。本周一我们专程前往旧金山梅森堡，参加OpenAI第三届年度开发者大会，很荣幸我们都能亲临现场。

Well, Casey, it was another one of those weeks where OpenAI kind of swallowed the entire news cycle. So you and I took a field trip on Monday of this week to Fort Mason in San Francisco where OpenAI was having its third annual Dev Day, its big developer conference, and we both got the chance to go.

没错。这是第三届开发者日，也是我们第二次受邀——去年他们可没邀请我们这些记者。但这次他们确实带来了重磅内容。

Yeah. This was the third Dev Day and the second one we were invited to after they didn't invite us reporter types last year. But this this time, they had a lot to say.

是的。让我们聊聊现场见闻以及OpenAI的诸多新动向。不过首先，鉴于本期主题涉及OpenAI和人工智能，我们需要声明利益关系：我本人所属的纽约时报公司正在起诉OpenAI和微软涉嫌侵犯版权。

Yes. So let's talk about what we saw there and all of the many things that OpenAI has been working on. But first, since this is a segment about OpenAI and AI in general, we should make our disclosures. Mine is that the New York Times company is suing OpenAI and Microsoft over alleged copyright violations.

我男朋友在Anthropic工作。

And my boyfriend works at Anthropic.

好的。周一早上我们到了梅森堡。这是个大型活动，听说有1500人参加。凯西，你会怎么形容OpenAI开发者日的氛围？

Okay. So Monday morning, we show up at Fort Mason. This was a big event, something like 1,500 people I heard were there. And, Casey, how would you describe the vibe of OpenAI's Dev Day?

嗯，首先我得说凯文，这让我有种似曾相识的感觉，因为九年前我就在同一栋楼里，当时Facebook宣布允许开发者在Messenger里搭建聊天机器人，马克·扎克伯格站在台上说'再也没人需要拨打1-800鲜花专线了'——结果证明这话不对。

Well, I have to say, first of all, Kevin, that it was giving me flashbacks because it was nine years ago that I was in the same building when Facebook announced that it would let developers build bots into Facebook Messenger, and Mark Zuckerberg stood on stage and said, no one will ever have to call +1 800 Flowers ever again, which turned out to be not true.

没错。而且居然是在同一个梅森堡，我都忘了这事。天啊。

That's right. And then wasn't the same exact building. I forgot that it was at Fort Mason too. My god.

确实。九年后，面孔变了，公司变了，但那种承诺的感觉却莫名相似。

It was. And then nine years later, the the the faces are different, the company is different, but the promise feels sort of the same.

是的。梅森堡是个半露天的大型综合场地，一栋楼里进行演讲，另一栋楼展示demo，我去demo区转了转。

Yes. So Fort Mason is this big, like, sort of indoor, outdoor, like, multiplex. And, you know, one building, they've got sort of talks going on. Another building, they've got demos. I walked around the demo building.

他们设了个阿修罗影院，你可以走进黑暗的放映厅，坐在超舒服的躺椅上观看AI生成的Sora六秒短片。这让我很有感触。哦对了，还有个电话亭体验区，你试了吗？

They had a Asura cinema where you could, like Mhmm. Go into, like, a dark theater with, like, a movie screen and sit on, like, very comfortable lounge chairs and, like, watch, like, different six second clips of, like, AI generated Sora videos. So that made me feel something. Oh, they had a phone booth station. Did you do these?

我看到了，但我没进去。

I saw it, but I didn't go in.

那你可真走运。因为如果你进去了，就会连接到ChatGPT，你可以跟它聊天，或者玩个知识问答游戏。我答错了一个问题，太尴尬了。是什么问题来着？

Well, lucky you then. Because when you were in there, you got connected to ChatGPT, and you could just sort of, like, talk to it, or you could play, like, a trivia game. Got one of the trivia questions wrong. Very embarrassing. What was the question?

要不我来考考你吧。听着啊。人工智能中让计算机从自身经验学习的分支叫什么？

Well, maybe I'll try this one on you. Okay. Okay. What is the branch of AI that teaches computers to learn from their own experiences?

计算机从自身经验学习。

Computers to learn from their own experiences.

你在打字吗

Are you typing

打到ChatGPT里？

this into ChatGPT?

我猜是机器学习。

I'm gonna say machine learning.

好的。恭喜你赢了。我说了强化学习，但有点过于深入细节了。

Okay. Congratulations. You win. I said reinforcement learning, which was a little too too too in the weeds.

太棒了。如果你正在收听播客，我刚说的就是所谓的'全线索引导'——当有人提问时，你会趁人不注意偷偷输入电脑。总之...

That was great. And if you're just listening to the podcast, I I just said what I call a full clue lead, which is somebody asks you a question, and then you just sort of surreptitiously type it into the computer while no one's looking. So anyways.

没错。关于AI，我们来快速盘点他们宣布的内容。Sam Altman主题演讲中首先提到，ChatGPT用户增长迅猛，目前周活用户已超8亿。

Yes. Yeah. So, on AI, let's just tick through some of the stuff they announced or or said from the stage. The first thing that Sam Altman said during his keynote was that ChatGPT has been growing like crazy. It has more than 800,000,000 weekly users now.

他还宣布OpenAI的API每分钟处理的token数已升至60亿，而2023年仅为3亿，实现了巨大增长。

He also announced that the number of tokens that OpenAI is processing through its API have gone up to 6,000,000,000 tokens per minute on the API. That's up from 300,000,000 per minute in 2023. So big growth for them.

我想说的是，每次出现热门初创公司，他们总会发明些听起来很唬人的指标，普通人根本搞不懂含义。就像'哇好大的数字，现在更大了'，这到底说明什么？天知道。

And I just wanna say that it seems like every time there's a hot new startup, they have to invent a very impressive sounding metric, and the human mind has absolutely no idea of understanding what it means. It's like, oh, there's a big number, and now it's an even bigger number. What what what should I take away from that? I don't know.

除了这些增长数据，Sam还宣布视频生成模型Sora二代和GPT-5 Pro将接入API，同时推出小型语音模型。开发者可以用这些工具构建应用，他们展示了案例——比如美泰玩具已开始用Sora二代进行玩具设计原型制作。

Yeah. So in addition to those new growth numbers, Sam also announced that Sora two, the new video generation model, and GPT five Pro are coming to the API along with a new smaller voice model. So developers are gonna be able to build using those things. They showed off some examples. One of them was that Mattel has apparently started using Sora two to sort of prototype or mock up new designs for toys.

他们播放了相关视频，还发布了一系列'智能体工具包'新功能，开发者可通过拖拽界面构建AI代理。不过我们重点要讨论的是ChatGPT即将推出应用商店的消息。凯西，你来解释下Sam Altman和其他高管对此的说明？

They showed off a video of that. They also announced a bunch of new stuff for what they're calling agent kit, which is basically the way that developers can build AI agents using this sort of drag and drop interface. They showed off some examples of that. But then the big thing that I think we're gonna spend most of our time talking about was this announcement that apps are coming to ChatGPT. So, Casey, explain what Sam Altman and other OpenAI executives said about that.

是的。这正是这个故事与我们近十年前参加的那个Facebook活动相联系的地方。OpenAI并非唯一尝试此事的公司，除了Facebook还有其他企业。但OpenAI希望你在使用ChatGPT时，能越来越多地整合你在网络上可能进行的其他活动。

Yeah. And this really is where this story connects to that Facebook event that we went to almost a decade ago. OpenAI is not the only company that's tried this. There have been others in addition to Facebook. But what OpenAI wants you to do is when you are using ChatGPT to increasingly bring in the other things that you might do around the web.

首先，你将能在对话中关联Expedia、Zillow、Figma、Target、Spotify等平台。功能上线当天我做了个小测试，通过ChatGPT在我的Spotify创建了播放列表。凯文，核心概念在于ChatGPT已成为互联网的新门户入口。它不再始于Facebook，也不再始于谷歌。

And so to start with, you'll be able to tag into your conversations, Expedia, Zillow, Figma, Target, Spotify. I did a little test the day that it came out where I built a playlist in my own Spotify through ChatGPT. And the basic idea, Kevin, is that ChatGPT is the new front door to the Internet. It no longer starts at Facebook. It no longer starts at Google.

你只需直接进入ChatGPT，无论想完成什么，都可以在那个对话框里一键搞定。

You just go directly to ChatGPT, and whatever you want to get done, you can do right from that box.

确实。我认为这是ChatGPT逐渐变得对大众更实用后的自然结果。开发者们也迫切希望触达那8亿周活跃用户，因此他们本质上搭建了其他应用/网站与ChatGPT的桥梁。或许我们该解释下运作原理——ChatGPT并不会替你去Zillow、Expedia或Target.com搜索，当你关联某个应用时，它更像是在ChatGPT内打开了一个子窗口。

Yeah. So this is something that I think is sort of a natural consequence of ChatGPT kind of becoming more generally useful for people. Also, developers are very eager to get in front of those 800,000,000 weekly ChatGPT users. And so they have essentially created this link between other apps and websites and ChatGPT, and we should maybe explain a little bit about how that works because it's not like ChatGPT is going off and searching Zillow or Expedia or target.com on your behalf. It kind of when you tag in one of these apps, it sort of opens this like window within ChatGPT.

所以你仍处于ChatGPT界面，但会有个小分屏来操作。除了创建Spotify歌单，还能做什么？举个例子？

So you're still on ChatGPT, but you kind of have this little sub window where you can do things. So what's an example of something that that you can do other than creating Spotify playlists?

他们展示的典型案例是：'我要搬去匹兹堡了，需要买房'。于是Zillow直接在ChatGPT内展示房源列表供你浏览。

Sure. So one example that they showed off is, hey. I'm getting ready to move to Pittsburgh. I need to buy a house. And so Zillow just showed a bunch of its own listings within ChatGPT for you to to browse inside that experience.

没错。不仅是简单搜索匹兹堡在售房源，还能细化要求：四卧三卫、价格上限、带院子等。它甚至能追溯你的ChatGPT对话历史，根据工作地点和兴趣偏好推荐合适社区的房源——理论上这些都能实现。

Right. So it's not just search for a home in Pittsburgh that's for sale for me. It's like, I want one that's like four bedrooms and three bathrooms and under this price and it's got a yard. You could also have it sort of go through your history of ChatGPT conversations and say, like, you know, based on where I work and the kinds of things I like to do, like, find some houses in a neighborhood that you think would be good for me, and it could presumably go do that.

是的。OpenAI正在这里实现的真正承诺是，他们将找到一种方法，安全地将ChatGPT所了解的关于你的部分信息与网络上的其他应用和服务共享，从而让你获得高度个性化的体验，让ChatGPT能代表你完成任务。他们认为如果做到这一点，ChatGPT确实将成为网络的新门户。

Yeah. And this is the real promise of what OpenAI is doing here is that they will find a way to safely share some amount of the things that ChatGPT knows about you with the other apps and services on the web in a way that lets you have these very personalized experiences, in a way that lets ChatGPT get things done for you on your behalf. And they think if they can do that, then they really do become the new homepage for the web.

没错。这就是他们这么做的部分原因。我猜这也是他们实现ChatGPT货币化的一种方式。如果你通过ChatGPT在Target购物，OpenAI很可能会从中抽成。但凯西，你本周在通讯文章中写道，你认为这类似于Facebook多年前尝试实施的平台战略，并指出这对Facebook来说并不完全顺利。

Right. So that's sort of why they're doing it. I assume this is also going to be a way for them to monetize ChatGPT. If you are going on to Target and buying things through ChatGPT, presumably OpenAI will get a cut of that. But Casey, you wrote a newsletter this week about how you think this is similar to a play that Facebook tried to make many years ago around this platform strategy, and you noted that that did not go entirely well for Facebook.

所以不妨简要阐述一下你的观点。

So maybe just outline your argument here.

是的。如果你还记得2010年代初，Facebook当时增长非常迅速。它已成为许多人的网络门户，很多人上网的第一站就是Facebook。后来Facebook萌生了一个想法：何不让其他开发者在我们的平台上构建应用呢？

Yeah. So if you remember back in the early twenty tens, Facebook was growing really rapidly. It had become the homepage for a lot of peoples where a lot of people are sort of starting their day on the Internet. And at some point, Facebook gets the idea, hey. Why don't we let the other developers build experiences on our platform?

我们会分享一些关于用户的已知信息，比如他们点赞过的页面和部分联系方式。事实上，我们甚至会把用户所有好友及其联系方式都共享出来。这对开发者来说简直是天降横财。明白吗？他们突然能获取到海量个人信息。

We'll share some of the things that we know about our users, you know, such as the pages that they've liked and maybe some of their contact information. In fact, we'll even share all of their friends with you and and their friends' contact information. And this just becomes a bonanza for developers. Right? There's so much personal information that is now available to them.

开发者纷纷入驻开始开发，Facebook发现这能赚大钱。他们开始发行名为Facebook币的虚拟货币。如果你想在Facebook上运营像《FarmVille》这样的大型应用——还记得凯文吗？凯文当年在《FarmVille》上可亏了不少钱。

They get in there. They start building things, and Facebook figures out it can make a lot of money doing this. It start selling this virtual currency called Facebook credits. And if you want that to have a big app on Facebook like FarmVille remember Kevin Kevin well, Kevin lost so much money on FarmVille back in the day. Yeah.

我当年就因为《FarmVille》挥霍太多Facebook币，最后不得不申请破产。

I had to file for bankruptcy in in Facebook credits because I spent too much on FarmVille.

没错。但Facebook从中抽取了所有Facebook信用收入的30%。凯文，Facebook曾披露过，FarmVille的开发商Zynga一家公司就贡献了其12%的收入。所以这个模式曾一度运转得非常好。后来发生了什么？

That's right. But Facebook took a 30% cut of all of the Facebook credit revenue. And at one point, Kevin, Facebook disclosed that Zynga, FarmVille's developer, was alone 12% of its revenue as a company. So there was a moment where this worked really well. And then what happened?

你可能还记得另一家叫剑桥分析的公司。

Well, you may remember another company called Cambridge Analytica.

是的，我听说过这家公司。

Yes. I've heard of this one.

剑桥分析在2016年美国总统大选后声名狼藉，因为它是疯狂收集个人数据的公司之一。最终这演变成巨大丑闻，因为曝光显示他们利用这些数据试图让选举倒向唐纳德·特朗普。虽然我认为他们真能通过Facebook数据改变选举结果的说法被严重夸大了，但这确实让大众注意到Facebook在用户隐私方面极其宽松的规则，迫使Facebook采取了一系列措施来遏制此类行为。实际上有个耐人寻味的细节——当丑闻爆发时，Facebook早在几年前就已收紧平台权限，因为他们预见到这类事件可能发生。

So Cambridge Analytica was a company that became famous after the twenty sixteen US presidential election because they were one of the companies that was hoovering up all of that personal data. And it eventually created a huge scandal because it was revealed that they had been using all of this data in an effort to swing the election toward Donald Trump. Now I think the idea that they actually could have swung the election using Facebook data is dramatically overstated, but it did draw a lot of attention to the extremely loose rules that Facebook had around user privacy, and Facebook wound up having to take a bunch of steps to try to rein that sort of thing. And and in fact, weird little asterisk detail about Cambridge Analytica, by the time it became a scandal, Facebook had actually already locked down the platform a couple years earlier because it suspected that something like this might someday happen.

确实。我很高兴你撰文指出这种关联，因为在我看来ChatGPT平台实际上比Facebook风险更高——人们会向ChatGPT倾诉非常私密的事。获取Facebook数据顶多能知道某人的社交圈、发帖内容或购物倾向。但如果把ChatGPT数据泄露给第三方开发者，可能包含心理治疗对话记录、咨询内容，甚至极度私密的个人细节。突然之间Zillow、Expedia或Target这些公司就掌握了这些信息，而你完全无法预料他们会怎么使用。

Yeah. And I I really am glad that you wrote about this and drew that connection because I think in this case, ChatGPT as a platform is actually riskier than Facebook as a platform for the simple reason that people share very intimate things with ChatGPT. You know, if you get someone's Facebook data, you can know who their friends are, what kinds of posts they make, maybe, you know, some things about their potential shopping behavior. But with ChatGPT, like, if you're giving that data to an outside developer, that might include transcripts of therapy sessions that you've had with ChatGPT, things that you've asked for advice on. It might include, like, very intimate personal details, and now all of a sudden Zillow or Expedia or Target has that and you have really no way of knowing what they're going to do with that.

所以在ChatGPT的案例中，一旦发生数据泄露，后果可能非常严重。

So in ChatGPC's case, this is like potentially quite serious if there were to ever be some kind of a data breach.

没错。举个例子凯文，假设我用ChatGPT时想给你发张贺卡庆祝硬分叉三周年。对吧？这主意不错。

Yeah. I mean, let me give you an example, Kevin. Let's say that I'm using ChatGPT and I decide I wanna send you a birthday card for a hard fork's third birthday. Right? Nice.

它汇集了多年来我与ChatGPT的所有对话内容，然后生成了一张生日贺卡，上面写着：'嘿，凯文。听着，我知道我们之间关系不太好，经常吵架，但我想让你知道凯西一直在接受心理治疗。这周他的治疗师是这样对他说的。'

And it draws on all of the conversations that I've had with ChatGPT over the years, and it writes a birthday card and it says, hey, Kevin. Look. I know things aren't great between us. I know that we have a lot of fights, but I also want you to know that Casey has been working on this in therapy. And here's actually what his therapist told him this week.

'生日快乐，祝你好运。'然后想象它就这样把贺卡发给你。我会颜面尽失，多年都难以挽回。这就是我们所说的那种风险。

Happy birthday and best of luck. And then imagine it just sends you that birthday card. I would have so much egg on my face, and I'd be digging out of that one for years. So that's the kind of risk we're talking about.

没错。巨大的风险。风险

Yes. Huge risks. Risks

足以毁掉一档播客节目。绝对如此。

that could blow up a podcast. Absolutely.

那么他们是否在这次活动中讨论了数据共享这个更广泛的问题，而非具体个案？

So did they address not this specific issue, but the larger issue of data sharing at this event?

他们确实讨论了。ChattyPT的负责人尼克·特利（之前上过我们节目）表示：'我们将确保ChatTP Tea仅共享完成交易所必需的最少信息量。'比如当我创建Spotify歌单时，可能只发送我在输入框里写的内容，比如'为硬分叉三周年派对制作一个有趣歌单'。这话听起来不错，但我要指出，它巧妙地回避了细节问题。对吧？

They did. So Nick Turley, head of ChattyPT, who's been on the show before, said, we are going to make it so that ChatTP Tea shares the minimum necessary amount of information needed to make the transaction. So I can imagine that in the case where I'm creating a Spotify playlist, it's probably just sending whatever I put in the box, you know, make me a fun playlist for the hard fork third birthday party. Now that sounds good when I say it, but I should note, it sort of hand waves its way past the details. Right?

因为ChatGPT还有记忆功能，我猜这些功能最终会以某种方式向部分开发者开放。OpenAI基本上表态说：'是的，我们会非常谨慎，不会做任何坏事。'我相信这是他们的初衷，但我们仍需保持警惕。

Because ChatGPT also has a memory feature that I imagine will eventually be exposed in some way to some of these developers. And basically, what OpenAI has said is, yeah, we're gonna be really careful and we're not gonna do anything bad. And I believe that that is their intention, but we're gonna have to keep an eye on them.

是的。我是说，我不认为这是个假设性问题。我尝试将我的ChatGPT连接到Canva时，作为那些开发ChatGPT应用的开发者之一，连接前会弹出提示，其中提到攻击者可能试图利用ChatGPT获取你在应用中的数据。它还要求你确认理解你的ChatGPT账户数据，包括对话记录和记忆，可能会与这些开发者共享。

Yeah. I mean, I don't think this is a hypothetical. I went to try to connect my ChatGPT to Canva, one of these developers who have sort of created these ChatGPT apps. And And you get a little pop up before you connect your app that says, among other things, that attackers may attempt to use ChatGPT to access your data in the app. And it also requires you to confirm that you understand that data from your ChatGPT account, including from conversations and memories, may be shared with these developers.

所以你实际上是在向OpenAI及其精选的开发者寄托大量信任，通过授予他们访问你ChatGPT历史记录的权限来构建这些应用。

So you really are placing a lot of trust in OpenAI and the developers that it has handpicked to be able to build these apps by giving them sort of access to your ChatGPT history.

没错。因此，如果你觉得这个功能目前不适合自己，我认为这是个完全理性的选择。没必要在那些更愿意冒险尝试隐私功能的人充分测试之前就一头扎进去。

Yeah. And for that reason, if you're like, I think this feature is not for me right now, I think that is a completely rational choice to take. Like, there's no reason that you have to sort of leap headlong into this before you, you know, you've let, you know, more privacy adventurous people put it through its paces.

是的。用传统方式使用Zillow吧。我关心这里的隐私影响，但也关注商业影响，因为我很好奇并想观察ChatGPT应用是否会在ChatGPT内获得某种特权。比如查询房产信息时，它可能优先展示Zillow而非Redfin或其他网站的内容，因为Zillow与ChatGPT和OpenAI有合作。你考虑过这个问题吗？

Yeah. Use Zillow the old fashioned way. I'm interested in the privacy implications here, but I'm also interested in the business implications because one thing I am interested to see and keep an eye on is whether the ChatGPT apps become sort of privileged within ChatGPT. I can imagine, for example, that if you are looking up, you know, real estate information on ChatGPT, it might want to show you things from Zillow rather than Redfin or another site because Zillow is the one that kind of has the deal with ChatGPT and with OpenAI. So are you thinking about that?

是的。完全考虑过。

Yes. Absolutely.

这就是我在你我参加的问答环节向OpenAI高管提出的问题。估计你当时没注意听我的提问。但基本上，Sam Altman告诉我的是：听着，人们信任ChatGPT很重要。

So this was the question that I asked of the OpenAI executives during the q and a session that you and I both attended. I guess you just kinda tuned out during my question. But, basically, you know, what what Sam Altman told me was, hey. Look. It's important that people trust ChattyPT.

他原话说'如果我们破坏这种信任，或为不该收费的内容收费，而不是展示我们认为最好的内容，那会迅速摧毁这种关系。所以我们极度重视谨慎行事的必要性。'OpenAI总裁Greg Brockman补充说'我认为这其中还有很多微妙之处，有时我们并不清楚什么是最好的产品。我们坚持真正服务用户的原则，但具体情境下这意味着什么？'

He said, quote, if we break that or take payment for something we shouldn't have instead of showing you what we think is best, that would clearly destroy that relationship very fast. So we're hyper aware of the need to be careful. Greg Brockman, who is OpenAI's president, added, I do want to say that I think there's also a lot of nuance there because sometimes we don't know what the best product is. Right? We have a principle of really trying to serve the user, and then what does that mean in all these specific contexts?

所以我理解的意思是，OpenAI就像有个天使坐在肩头。我不是说萨姆·阿尔特曼本人，而是有种隐喻般的天使坐在公司肩头提醒：要非常非常谨慎，做正确的事。就像谷歌当年针对这种动态常说的——不作恶。

So what I took that to mean was you sort of have the angel on the shoulder of OpenAI. I'm not saying that Sam Altman, but, you know, there's, like, kind of a metaphorical angel sitting on the company's shoulder saying, hey. Be really, really careful. Do the right thing. As Google used to say back in the day about this exact dynamic, don't be evil.

然后你还有个魔鬼在肩头低语：我得说，我觉得这个领域其实有很多微妙之处。对吧。

And then you have the devil on the shoulder saying, I do wanna say that I also think there's a lot of nuance in this space. Right.

对啊。我们？收钱？我们怎么会做这种事？

Right. Us? Take money? Why would we do that?

这很微妙，凯文。这是个非常微妙的问题。

It's nuanced, Kevin. It's a very nuanced question.

非常微妙。确实很微妙。好吧。这就是开发者日的场景。不过凯西，你觉得在这次活动中有了解到OpenAI或其野心的新信息吗？

Very nuanced. Very nuanced. So okay. That's sort of the scene of Dev Day. But Casey, do you feel like you learned anything about OpenAI or its ambitions at this event?

我认为这再次证明了OpenAI的雄心壮志。要知道，硅谷从不缺乏野心。但当我看到OpenAI试图实现的所有目标时，还是忍不住感叹：哇，这些人真的在全力冲刺。他们确实想接管整个互联网，而且当面告诉你这个目标，还展示了实现路径。

I think this was just another example of OpenAI showing us how ambitious that it is. You know, Silicon Valley is not a town lacking in ambition. But when I saw everything that OpenAI is trying to do here, it was just another moment to say, wow. These people are really going for it. Like, they really do actually want to take over the entire web, and they're telling you that to your face, and they're showing you how they are doing it.

所以对我来说，这像是一记警钟。你觉得呢？

So for me, that was kind of a wake up call. How about you?

是的，我认为没错。很明显，OpenAI并不将ChatGPT仅仅视为聊天机器人，而是视其为一种新型的万物操作系统。我还看到有人将其比作中国的微信这类超级应用，一个应用就能掌控你的大部分线上活动。

Yeah. I think that's right. I mean, it's very clear that OpenAI sees ChatGPT as more than a chatbot. It sees it as kind of a new operating system for everything that you might wanna do. I also saw some people comparing it to a super app like WeChat in China where you can sort of have one app that controls a lot of your online activities.

所以我不确定这个平台战略能否成功。今天我们指出了它可能失败的一些原因，但这一战略向投资者、开发者、用户乃至整个互联网传递的信号是：我们要颠覆你们。我们不会躺在功劳簿上，不会满足于人们目前使用ChatGitBT的方式。我们要把整个互联网都塞进我们的版图。

So I don't know whether this platform strategy will work. I think we've pointed out today some reasons that it might not, but I think the signal that it sends to investors and developers and users and kind of the rest of the Internet is like, we are coming for you. We are we are not resting on our laurels. We are not resting on the ways that people are currently using ChatGitBT. We want to take the rest of the Internet and sort of shove it inside what we're doing.

嗯。

Yeah.

好的。关于开发者日还有件最诡异的事必须讨论——Sam Altman和Johnny Ive的炉边谈话。Johnny Ive作为设计出iPhone、iPod等苹果成功基石的前苹果传奇设计师，如今与OpenAI合作并被收购，正共同开发新硬件产品。我原本期待这场30分钟的谈话能透露些产品细节，但Casey，我们听到的只是一堆空洞辞藻。

Alright. So one more thing we need to talk about from Dev Day, because this was truly the most bizarre part of the entire event, was this fireside chat between Sam Altman and Johnny Ive. Johnny Ive, of course, is the famous former Apple designer who made the iPhone and the iPod and basically everything that, you know, Apple, built its success on over the years, who has now partnered with OpenAI and been acquired by OpenAI and is building a new hardware product with OpenAI. And so I was excited for this because I thought, oh, maybe we're gonna get some details about this hardware product in this, like, you know, thirty minute fireside chat. And Casey, what we heard instead was a bunch of words signifying nothing.

简直就是GPT-2水平。句子说到一半就没了。整场谈话下来，我们对OpenAI在开发什么、如何开发的完全一无所知。

It was GPT two level. Yeah. Is how I would describe it. Like, sentences were started and not finished. And by the end of this session, we truly had not learned one thing about what OpenAI is building or how they were building it.

太不可思议了。我直接念一段Johnny Ive的发言，当时他们

It was incredible. I will just read you a quote from Johnny Ive during the session. This was when they

正在讨论开发内容。他说：‘线索和指向标都已存在，只需将其整合。但要知道，这将关乎理念，关乎合乎情理的愿景。我认为只有保持高度好奇与行动敏捷，才能实现这个目标。’

were he was talking about what they're building. He said, the clues and the pointers all exist, and it's just trying to sort of put them together. But there has you know, it will be it will be ideas. It will be a vision for what makes sense. And I think we're only going to arrive at that if we are very curious and light on our feet.

还记得那次美国小姐选美比赛吗？当被问及复杂的地缘政治问题时，她只能即兴发挥三十秒直到问题结束。我看约翰尼·艾维接受萨姆·奥特曼采访时就是这种感觉——这其实特别滑稽，因为萨姆·奥特曼又不是卡拉·斯威舍那种会咄咄逼人的采访者。按理说这些问题都应该提前沟通过。我理解你不想透露设备具体细节和上市时间。

Do you remember the the miss America pageant where they asked her some complicated question about geopolitics, and she just kind of had to vamp for for for thirty seconds until the end of the question. That was how I felt watching Johnny Ive get asked questions by Sam Altman, which, of course, is so funny because it's not like Sam Altman is Kara Swisher up there, like, really putting the screws to this guy. You know? Presumably, all of these questions had been, like, negotiated in advance. And, like, look, I get it if you don't wanna tell us exactly what the device is and when it's gonna go on sale.

适当吊胃口没问题，但真不明白为什么要让所有人干坐三十分钟，结果只等到他说'工艺是工具的本质'这种话。这到底是在干嘛？在此我想对OpenAI社区说句心里话——这话我在节目里说过一次。

Like, it's okay to, like, tease us a little bit, but I truly don't understand the point of having everyone just sit there for thirty minutes waiting you for you to say something, and then all you get is him being like, craft is the essence of tools. You know? And you're just like, what are what are we doing here? So I have a message to the OpenAI community on the subject of your heart. I've said this one time before on the show.

我通常只在特殊场合说这句话，现在就是时候：OpenAI做AI硬件的话，要么交货要么闭嘴。实在不想再听什么围炉夜话探讨设计哲学了，我要看实实在在的参数表。

I try to reserve this for very special situations. I think we're in it now. When it comes to AI hardware, OpenAI, I'm saying this, ship it or zip it. I truly do not wanna hear one more of these fireside chats where we ruminate on the nature of design. I wanna see freaking specs, people.

要么拿出参数，要么免开尊口。

Get me the specs or stop talking.

没错，这是我见过最接近人类生成的废话了，完全是一堆无意义的词符。

Yes. This was the closest thing I've ever seen to human generated slop. It was just a bunch of tokens.

确实...实在是太多词符了。

It was it was Too many tokens.

词符确实太多了。广告回来后我们将讨论OpenAI本周另一重磅消息：支撑整个经济的万亿美元豪赌。

It was too many tokens. When we come back, OpenAI's other big news this week, a trillion dollar gamble that is propping up the entire economy.

你好，我是索拉娜·派恩，现任《纽约时报》视频部门总监。多年来，我的团队制作了众多让你近距离接触重大新闻时刻的视频。这些由时报记者制作的视频，凭借专业素养和训练，帮助你理解正在发生的事件。

Hi. I'm Solana Pine. I'm the director of video at The New York Times. For years, my team has made videos that bring you closer to big news moments. Videos by Times journalists that have the expertise and training to help you understand what's going on.

你可能已经在社交媒体或浏览《纽约时报》时见过这些内容。现在我们将这些视频整合到《纽约时报》应用的'观看'标签页中。这是一个专属视频流，你可以完全信任所见内容。所有视频都免费开放观看，无需订阅。

You might have seen these on social media or browsing The New York Times. Now we're bringing those videos to you in the watch tab in The New York Times app. It's a dedicated video feed where you know you can trust what you're seeing. All the videos there are free for anyone to watch. You don't have to be a subscriber.

从你喜爱的应用商店下载《纽约时报》应用即可开始观看。如果你更偏爱音频内容，我们还设有'收听'标签页。

Download the New York Times app from your favorite app store to start watching. And if you're more of an audio person, there's a listen tab too.

凯文，当我们在OpenAI开发者日了解ChatGPT即将推出的新功能时，OpenAI在会场外制造的新闻可能更具爆炸性。

Well, Kevin, while you and I were at OpenAI developer day learning about everything that's coming to ChatGPT, OpenAI was arguably making much bigger news outside the conference.

确实如此。他们搅动了市场——整个股市。准确说是影响了部分上市公司。

Yes. They were moving markets. The entire stock market. Not the entire stock market, but a couple companies.

当时我的注意力全在眼前的事情上。离开开发者日后我才意识到，必须尽快补上芯片领域的所有动态。每当这种时候我就想：第一，天啊又要聊芯片了；第二，能不能请我们的内部芯片专家凯文·鲁斯给我补补课？

And this was one where I was focused on the things in front of me. And when I got out of developer day, I thought, I really need to get up to speed on everything that is going on with chips. And whenever I have that feeling, I think, one, oh, no. I have to talk about chips again. But two, can Kevin Roose, our resident in house chips expert, smarten me up?

首先感谢你的抬举。不过我得说我只是个芯片知识爱好者，对半导体行业和GPU的了解还不够全面，但我渴望深入学习。实际上，上周末在'The Curve'AI峰会上（我们共同参加的另一场会议），当我偶然陷入一群讨论芯片的极客圈时，已经在这个方向上迈出了一大步。

I would say I would thank you. That's very kind. But I would say I am an aspiring chips expert. I do not know everything there is to know about the semiconductor industry or GPUs, but I aspire to learn much more. And, actually, I took a big step in that direction over last weekend at The Curve, this other AI conference we both attended, when I happened to find myself in the middle of kind of a scrum of chips guys who were talking about chips.

我只听懂了他们谈话内容的40%左右。他们在讨论HBM、极紫外光刻、燃气轮机和地热发电这些话题，我完全被吸引住了，因为所有搞AI的人现在都得懂芯片。我就在这个播客里宣布，到2025年前，我也要成为芯片专家。

And I understood, like, 40% of what they were saying. They were talking about, you know, HBM and EUVs and gas turbines and geothermal, and I was just, like, transfixed because all the AI guys have had to become chips guys. And I am saying right here on this podcast that I will, by the 2025, be a chips guy.

这消息太棒了，我觉得本周我们就能在这个方向取得重大进展，因为OpenAI达成了几笔大交易。我需要搞清楚状况，所以我们要试播一个新板块，就叫'这些芯片到底是怎么回事'？

That is great to hear, and I think we can make some big strides in that direction this week because OpenAI made some big deals. I need to understand what's happening, and so we're gonna pilot a new segment that we're calling, what the hell is going on with all these chips exactly?

这个名字有点拗口，我们可能需要精简一下。

It's a little unwieldy. We might wanna tighten that one.

那我们就从AMD这笔交易开始吧。详细说说OpenAI到底在搞什么名堂。

So let's get started with this deal with AMD. Tell me exactly what OpenAI is up to here.

几周前我们讨论过OpenAI与芯片制造龙头英伟达的大单。英伟达生产的芯片最适合训练AI系统，质量最好也最昂贵。而GPU市场的二号玩家AMD，可以说是英伟达的竞争对手，但在这场GPU军备竞赛中始终处于追赶者位置。

So we talked a couple weeks ago about OpenAI's big deal with NVIDIA, who is the leading chip manufacturer. They make the best and most expensive and and highest quality chips for training AI systems. But the number two player in that market, the GPU market, is AMD, who's NVIDIA's, you know, competitor and and sort of seen as a kind of distant second place in the GPU arms race.

这就好比芯片界的百事可乐。对，就是芯片界的百事可乐，完全正确。

This is like the Pepsi of chips. It's the Pepsi of chips. Exactly. Right.

本周OpenAI和AMD宣布了一项价值数十亿美元的重大交易：未来几年OpenAI将从AMD采购大量GPU部署在数据中心。作为回报，他们将获得AMD的部分股权——最终可能以每股1美分的价格获得该公司10%的股份。相比当前股价，这基本上等于白送或以极低价格获取股票，整个交易将分多年完成。

So this week, OpenAI and AMD announced a major multibillion dollar deal where OpenAI is going to buy a bunch of GPUs from AMD and put them in their data centers over the next few years. And in return, they are going to get some AMD stock. This could eventually become up to 10% of the company at a penny per share. So basically, free stock or stock at a very, very low price compared to what it trades for today. And this will all play out over the course of a number of years.

他们将从2026年开始采用AMD的最新芯片，并计划购买总计6吉瓦的AMD芯片，这略高于他们根据协议从英伟达获得数量的一半。英伟达的协议涉及10吉瓦的GPU。整体来看，OpenAI正在与众多芯片供应商和基础设施提供商达成此类协议。若将AMD、英伟达及其他几家已签约公司的公告汇总，他们正在未来几年内构建一个价值万亿美元的GPU帝国。这是他们公开宣称的雄心与计划，如今已通过协议落实。

They will start with AMD's newest chip in 2026, and they are going to try to buy a total of six gigawatts worth of AMD chips, which is a little more than half of what they are going to get from NVIDIA in the terms of that deal. NVIDIA's deal was for 10 gigawatts worth of GPUs. So the big picture here is that OpenAI is doing these deals with many, many chip providers and infrastructure providers. And if you kind of add it all up, just the announcements from AMD and NVIDIA and a handful of other companies that they've struck deals with, they are building a trillion dollar GPU empire over the next few years. That is their stated ambition and plan, and now they have the deals in place to do that.

不知你是否记得几个月前的报道——山姆·奥特曼试图为一家芯片公司筹集7万亿美元资金，当时所有人都觉得这个数字疯狂至极，相当于OpenAI终身收入的数倍。虽然最终不是7万亿，但他们现在已承诺在未来几年投入约1万亿美元。

And I don't know if you remember a few months ago when there was this reporting about how Sam Altman was trying to raise $7,000,000,000,000 for a chip company, and everyone kinda said, That's, like, such a crazy number. That would be, like, some, you know, huge multiple of, you know, the the the total lifetime earnings of OpenAI. Well, it's not 7,000,000,000,000, but now they have pledged to spend roughly a trillion dollars over the next few years.

你知道，我刚入行时就有人告诉我：第一个万亿总是最难的。

Well, you know, when I got into business, they told me the first trillion is always the hardest.

确实有这种说法。

They do say that. Yeah.

凯文，说来惭愧，直到最近我才真正理解'吉瓦'的实际意义。据我所查资料，1吉瓦能量约等于一座核反应堆的产量，而OpenAI如今布局的基础设施将需要相当于20座核反应堆的能源。

You know, I would something about me, Kevin, is that I didn't until very recently understand what a gigawatt was in any practical terms. My understanding, but based on the reading that I've done, is a gigawatt of energy is about what is produced by a nuclear reactor, and OpenAI is now committing to infrastructure that will require the equivalent energy of 20 nuclear reactors.

没错，这是极其庞大的能源需求，这又引出了另一个话题——购买GPU是一回事，能让它们运转起来则是另一回事。我们后续节目肯定会深入探讨，目前各方正同步竞相锁定驱动这数百万GPU所需的能源。

Yes. It is a huge amount of energy, and that's a whole separate discussion. Like, it's one thing to buy the GPUs. It's another thing to be able to turn them on. And so we'll talk more about that, I'm sure, in a later episode, but there is sort of a simultaneous race going on to lock up the energy that is going to be required to power all of these millions of GPUs.

好，或许这是个浅显的问题，但请用最基础的语言告诉我：OpenAI和AMD分别从刚达成的协议中获得了什么？

Okay. So maybe this is an obvious question, but tell me just in basic terms, what do OpenAI and AMD each get out of this deal that they just made?

简单来说，交易结构是这样的：OpenAI将从AMD购买大量芯片，用于训练和驱动其模型。作为采购回报，AMD将授予OpenAI以极低价格购买AMD股票的权利。当OpenAI从AMD采购的计算能力达到1吉瓦时，他们将获得一定比例的AMD股票，这些股票价值可能高达数十亿美元。

So, essentially, the deal structure goes like this. OpenAI is gonna buy a bunch of chips from AMD. It's going to use those chips to train and power its models. And in exchange for those purchases, AMD is going to give OpenAI the rights to buy very cheap stock in AMD. So when they reach a gigawatt of compute that they've purchased from AMD, they will get some allocation of stock in AMD, which could be worth, you know, many billions of dollars.

OpenAI此举是在向AMD传递信号：如果你们能打造出优质GPU，我们就会采购。他们获得融资的方式本质上是通过股票形式实现的采购返利。

What OpenAI is doing is signaling to AMD, hey. If you guys go build a bunch of really good GPUs, we will buy them from you. And the way that they are sort of getting this financing is in the form of a stock essentially rebate on that purchase.

让我确认是否理解正确。在我看来，OpenAI既获得了基础设施使用权，又获得了芯片制造商的股权；AMD则赢得了一个大客户并锁定了未来需求。这看起来是双赢局面。我是否遗漏了什么？

So let me see if I have this straight. Because when I look at this, I see OpenAI gets access to a bunch of infrastructure plus a financial stake in the chipmaker. AMD gets a huge new customer and ensures a lot of future demand. That just kind of looks like a win win to me for them. Is there anything I'm

另一个关键点是，OpenAI与AMD将展开芯片设计及配套软件开发的全方位合作。AMD与英伟达竞争时面临的主要障碍在于，英伟达的CUDA软件被认为比AMD的ROCCM更适合AI模型训练。通过这次合作，OpenAI将有动力帮助AMD将软件提升到与英伟达同等水平。这不仅涉及芯片销售，OpenAI还将协助开发配套软件，从而增强AMD芯片对其他AI开发者的吸引力。

missing there? So So the other thing that's really important here is that OpenAI and AMD are going to have a collaborative partnership in designing not just these chips, but the software that runs on these chips. So one of the big sort of hurdles that AMD has had in competing with NVIDIA is that NVIDIA's software, which is called CUDA, is seen as much, much better for training AI models than AMD's software, which is called ROCCM. So basically, OpenAI, as a result of this partnership, will have an incentive to make AMD's software just as good as NVIDIA's software. And so this could actually help AMD in that way too, where, you know, they're making these chips, they're selling them to OpenAI, but also OpenAI is helping to write the software that runs on these chips, thereby making these AMD chips more compelling to other AI developers who want to build models using them.

这样解释清楚吗？

Does that make sense?

好的。这引出了我的第二个重要问题：该交易与OpenAI近期其他芯片及基础设施协议有何关联？之前讨论英伟达交易时，我曾猜测英伟达可能是为了阻止OpenAI与其他芯片商合作。现在看来这个猜测很可笑，因为OpenAI显然会尽可能多地达成合作。

Okay. Yes. So this gets to the second big question that I have for you today, which is how is this deal connected to the other chips and infrastructure deals that OpenAI has made recently? When we talked about the NVIDIA deal on the show, I said that I'd heard some speculation that one reason that NVIDIA wanted to make the deal that it did was to discourage OpenAI from going out and making a bunch of other deals with other chip companies. In hindsight, that seems like a very silly thing that I said because OpenAI is clearly gonna make a deal with whoever it can.

请尽可能说明这些交易如何相互关联？是否单纯因为OpenAI所需的基础设施远超任何单一公司供应能力，所以它要尽可能多地锁定资源？

So tell me as best as you can how all these deals interrelate, or is it as simple as OpenAI needs more infrastructure than any one company can provide, and so it's just gonna go out and lock up as much of it as it can.

是的。我认为这更像是解释。我并不认为这是在排挤市场上的其他参与者，无论是AI制造商还是芯片制造商。我认为他们只是在表达，我们将需要大量GPU，远超任何一家公司能单独生产的规模，甚至可能超出这些公司当前的规划产能。所以他们也在试图鼓励这些企业提升产量，以满足这一惊人需求。

Yeah. I think that's more the explanation. I don't actually think this is about crowding anyone else out of the market, any AI maker or chipmaker. I think this is just them saying, like, we are going to need a lot of GPUs more than any one company can make and probably more than any of these companies are planning to make currently. So they're also trying to sort of encourage these companies to up their production to meet this incredible demand.

而且，你知道，拥有多个供应商总是好事。你可以让他们相互制衡，或许还能增强他们之间的竞争。因此我认为OpenAI在这里只是分散了风险，但他们确实相信会需要所有这些芯片甚至更多。本质上他们一直在说的是：我们现在受限于算力。我们有许多正在开发的产品和想做的事情，却因算力不足而无法实现。

And, you know, it is always good to have more than one supplier. You can kind of play them off each other and and maybe, you know, increase the competition between them. And so I think OpenAI is just kind of spreading its bets a little bit here, but they do believe that they are going to need all these chips and many more. Essentially, what they have been saying is we are compute constrained right now. We have a lot of products that we're building, things that we want to do that we can't do because we don't have enough compute for it.

所以他们正试图锁定尽可能多的算力资源，然后扩建数据中心，寻找能源支持这一切，再利用大型计算集群训练模型，希望能最终实现通用人工智能（AGI）。至少理论上是这样。

And so they are trying to sort of lock in as much compute as they can, and then, you know, build out their data centers and find the energy to power all of this, and then, you know, use their big clusters to train models that hopefully will take us all the way to AGI. That's the idea anyway.

确实。在本周的OpenAI开发者日上，公司总裁Greg Brockman表示：'你们甚至不知道我们有哪些未发布的产品——因为我们没有足够的算力来支持它们。'显然OpenAI还雪藏了一批服务，这些交易或许能让他们更接近发布这些产品，无论结果是好是坏。现在我要问一个在硅谷被认为极不礼貌的问题——这种问题可能会让你被请出派对：OpenAI打算如何支付这一切？

Yeah. At OpenAI Developer Day this week, Greg Brockman, the company's president said, you don't even know the products that we haven't released because we do not have the compute to power them. So apparently, there's a bunch of services OpenAI is sitting on, and maybe some of these deals will get them closer to releasing them for better and for worse. So let me now ask a question that is considered extremely impolite in Silicon Valley, and it's the sort of thing that might get you asked to leave a party. How is OpenAI gonna pay for all of this?

这是个好问题，因为他们银行账户里绝对没有躺着1万亿美元。他们尚未详细说明支付计划，但本质上会通过对外融资——就像过去几年一直在做的那样——用筹集到的资金完成交易和芯片采购。Greg Brockman本周告诉彭博电视，他们正在考虑各种股权和债务融资方式，同时也会通过ChatGPT等产品的收入来支付。

It's a great question because they do not have $1,000,000,000,000, I'll tell you that, lying around in their bank account. They have not given a ton of details about how they plan to pay for this, but essentially, they're going to go out. They're going to raise a bunch of money as they have been doing for the past several years, and they are going to use that money to make these deals and buy these chips. Greg Brockman told Bloomberg Television this week that they look at equity and debt in all kinds of ways to pay for it. They also plan to pay for this by generating more revenue through ChatGPT and their other products.

所以当你看到这1万亿美元的预估总成本时，要知道他们打算通过新融资、类似英伟达提供的供应商融资方案，以及产品收入来拼凑出这笔资金。

So when you look at the $1,000,000,000,000 stated cost of all this, you know, they they are going to try to cobble that together through a combination of new fundraising, maybe some more vendor financing like what they got from Nvidia, and just the revenue that they are making from their products.

还有Kevin，在开发者日上被问及此事时，Sam Altman曾表示：'我们可能需要创造新型金融工具来支付这笔开支。'我得说，当泡沫中人们开始讨论需要创造新型金融工具来实现野心时，通常就是我开始紧张的时刻。完全同意。

Also, Kevin, once again, at Developer Day, when asked about this, Sam Altman said something to the effect of, we may have to come up with some new kinds of financial instruments to pay for this. And I will say that usually the point in the bubble where people start talking about the novel financial instruments that they need to create to finance their ambitions is the point where I get nervous. Totally. I mean,

这里的担忧在于所有这些金融工具和数百亿美元的投资承诺，意味着OpenAI实质上已经变得‘大到不能倒’。对吧？他们与众多巨头企业深度绑定，如果公司发展停滞、新模型失败或是达到某种扩展极限，整个体系就会崩塌，并在美国经济中产生连锁反应。虽然我不认为这是最可能的结果，但这些循环交易和资金流动确实让我更担心——一次经济衰退可能不仅导致某家公司倒闭，更可能在整个目前支撑美国经济的AI行业引发系统性危机。我们似乎已经到了这样的时刻：AI公司必须兑现通用人工智能的承诺，否则大家都会陷入相当糟糕的境地。

the worry here is about all of these financial instruments and all these, you know, many hundreds of billions of dollars of commitments is that OpenAI is essentially becoming too big to fail. Right? That they are so tied up with so many huge companies that if they were to fizzle out or their newest model were to be a flop or they were to somehow reach the end of their sort of scaling paradigm, that all of this would come crashing down and create ripple effects throughout The US economy. I don't think that's the most possible outcome here, but I do think that all of this circularity and all these sort of interchanging deals and and and flows of money do make me a bit more nervous that something like a recession could cause not just one of these companies to collapse, but could cause, like, systemic effects throughout the AI industry, which is, like, propping up the entire US economy at this point. So it does feel like we have reached a point where the AI companies must deliver on the promise of AGI, or else we are all in a pretty bad situation.

即便不能实现通用人工智能，至少要继续提供能让其他公司愿意花费数十亿购买的服务，只要这些公司觉得这些服务能提升员工效率。

Or if not, deliver on the promise of AGI, at least continue to make services that other companies are willing to spend billions of dollars on because they feel like it's making their workers more productive.

确实如此。可能模型本身不会再有突破，但模型采用率的提升会形成收入飞轮，让各方都从中受益。不过我认为这些公司的投资者都心照不宣地认为，当前投入最终会创造数万亿美元经济价值——不是渐进式增长，而是像电力般颠覆性的变革。即使以现在惊人的投入成本，未来也会获得数倍回报，因为这项技术将改变一切。所以即便达不到‘机器之神’级别的超级智能，这套逻辑仍然成立。但显然，如果承诺的‘彩虹尽头’真是数万亿美元和新社会形态，这个愿景会更容易推销。

That's true. It could just be that the models never get any better and just the increased adoption of the models sort of powers this, like, revenue flywheel that results in all of this going well for everyone. But I do think there's kind of an an implicit understanding among the investors in these companies that this is all building towards something that will eventually create trillions of dollars in economic value that will not just be like a kind of across the board, you know, incremental step up, but that it will be transformational, that it will be like electricity, and that all of the sort of investments that are going into this, even at the these shocking prices, will be paid back many times over because this technology will change everything. And so, like, I think there's a way to make the math work even if they don't reach, like, the the machine god superintelligence. But it's a lot easier to sell the vision if the pot of gold that you are saying is at the end of this rainbow is in fact, like, trillions of dollars and an entirely new sort of society.

好的凯文。在结束前我想知道，这些交易对非OpenAI公司意味着什么？现在OpenAI锁定了大量未来供应，那些同样需要吉瓦级电力和尽可能多GPU的企业该怎么办？

Alright, Kevin. So as we start to wrap up here, I wanna know what the larger implications are for all of these deals. What does this mean for companies that are not OpenAI, that also want gigawatts of power and as many GPUs as they can get their hands on now that OpenAI seems to be locking up so much future supply?

我认为其他AI公司必须效仿这类交易模式。他们不得不在卖方市场上竞标芯片——Anthropic、谷歌等公司都在花费数百亿美元试图锁定未来芯片供应。但更大的启示是：我们国家正在对AI进行一场巨大的杠杆押注。我想引用伯恩斯坦分析师Stacy Rasgon本周的观点：‘山姆·奥特曼现在有能力让全球经济崩溃十年，或者带我们所有人进入应许之地。’

So I think other AI companies are gonna have to sort of do their own versions of these deals. They're going to have to, you know, bid on chips essentially in a in a seller's market. I know Anthropic and and Google and all all these companies are are, you know, spending billions and billions of dollars trying to lock up future chip supply. But I think the big implication here is that we are just as a country making a gigantic leveraged bet on AI. I wanna read you a quote that I saw this week from an analyst at Bernstein, Stacy Rasgon, who wrote that Sam Altman now, quote, has the power to crash the global economy for a decade or take us all to the promised land.

而目前，我们不知道哪种情况会发生。当华尔街分析师开始这样说话时，你就知道大事正在发生。想必你也看过那些关系图——前几天彭博社有个很棒的版本，金融时报也发布过类似图表，展示了AI生态系统中各方的复杂关联：彼此买卖芯片、相互投资、借贷往来。

And right now, we don't know which is in the cards. When when Wall Street analysts start talking like that, you know that something big is happening. And, you know, I'm sure you've seen all these diagrams. There was a great one in Bloomberg the other day. There was another one in the Financial Times recently showing just the various interconnections between all of the players in the AI ecosystem who are selling chips to each other and buying chips from each other and investing in each other and lending to each other.

这种循环结构让许多投资者感到不安，他们认为当AI泡沫破裂时，整个体系可能会同时崩塌。

And it creates this kind of circularity that I think worries a lot of investors who think that this could all sort of come crashing down together if and when the AI bubble pops.

凯文，我再给你一个数据。本周哈佛经济学家杰森·弗曼估算，数据中心和信息处理软件的投资占今年上半年美国GDP增长的92%。按我的粗略计算，这几乎就是美国经济增长的全部。

I'll give you another one, Kevin. This week, a Harvard economist named Jason Furman estimated that investments in data centers and information processing software accounted for 92% of The US's GDP growth in the first half of this year. So according to my rough calculations, that's most of The US GDP growth.

没错。需要说明的是这不仅限于OpenAI。据报道，埃隆·马斯克的xAI也即将完成数十亿美元融资，投资方包括英伟达。这些公司在为基础设施扩建融资方面，和OpenAI一样在进行大量金融化操作。但OpenAI在这方面具有战略优势，这个优势名叫萨姆·奥特曼。

Yeah. And we should also say this is not just OpenAI. Elon Musk's x AI also reportedly is nearing a deal to raise billions of dollars, including from NVIDIA. So they are doing just as many financialized transactions around trying to pay for these massive infrastructure build outs that they're doing as OpenAI is. But this is also an area where I think OpenAI has a strategic advantage, and that strategic advantage is named Sam Altman.

萨姆·奥特曼以卓越的募资能力闻名。许多人认为他是硅谷史上最出色的募资者之一。他一直在全球范围内搜寻巨额资金池，为OpenAI的野心提供资金支持。虽然我不一定在所有事情上都看好奥特曼，但若论他能否持续为OpenAI发展募资，我实在不敢押注他会失败，毕竟他有着筹集巨额资金的辉煌履历。

Sam Altman is famously talented at fundraising. Many people think he is one of the greatest fundraisers in Silicon Valley history. And so he has been, you know, canvassing the globe, looking for giant pools of money that he can kind of suck up and use to fund OpenAI's ambitions. And I would not necessarily bet on Sam Altman in every case, but I would say that if the question is can he continue to raise money to fund OpenAI's growth, I think I would feel uncomfortable betting against that because he has such a track record of being able to raise massive amounts of money.

确实，我也不会赌他失败。

Yeah. I I also would not bet against him.

好的，凯西，让我来问你个问题。要怎样才能彻底说服你，让你相信当前GPU、半导体和数据中心的发展是当今世界最重要的议题？

Okay. Casey, let me let me ask you a question. You've been asking questions here. What would it take me to fully chip pill you to convince you that what is going on with GPUs and semiconductors and data centers right now is the most important story in the world?

除非发生重大芯片灾难——我可不是开玩笑。虽然向公众披露这些巨额投资和企业的深度互联很有意义，也值得探讨若这些投资全部兑现会有多疯狂，但目前一切运转正常。考虑到世界上还有那么多真实危机，我实在无法对看似资本主义正常运作的事情太过投入。当然，这些数字确实前所未有，讨论起来确实很有意思。

A huge chip related disaster, and I'm not even kidding. Because while I think it is a public service to tell people how much money is being invested and how interconnected all of these companies are and how crazy it would be if all of this does pay off, for the moment, everything is just kind of working. You know? And given the, let's say, the many crises we have in this world right now, I just tend to not get too wrapped up in the stuff that basically just looks like capitalism proceeding apace. Now that said, I understand that all the numbers here are unprecedented, which I do think is fun to talk about.

所以我们本周才会讨论这个话题。但若真想让我着迷，除非这些数据中心里发生些灾难性事件，凯文。

That's why we're talking about it this week. But if you really wanna get me hooked, something's gotta go terribly wrong in one of these data centers, Kevin.

我在想象，你还记得《大空头》里玛格特·罗比在浴缸里解释抵押贷款证券的场景吗？对，我现在脑海里浮现的是同样对你充满吸引力的人，正在解释担保GPU和权证融资的画面，或许这样才能引起你的兴趣。

I'm envisioning do you do you remember the scene in the big short where, like, Margot Robbie is explaining mortgage backed securities in a bathtub? Yeah. Yeah. I'm just having a vision of, like, you know, someone equally attractive to you explaining, like, collateralized GPUs and, like, warrant financing, and maybe that's how we can get you interested.

好吧，我们看看约翰·塞纳待会儿有什么安排。

Alright. Let's see what John Cena's doing later.

快给你的经纪人打电话吧，约翰。

Call your agent, John.

那么接下来会发生什么，凯文？如果我想像你一样成为芯片领域的信徒，我该关注哪些方面呢，我的好朋友？

So happens next here, Kevin? What should I keep my eye on if I am trying to become more chip pilled like like you, my good friend?

据我所知，成为芯片信徒只是通往基础设施信徒的第一步。因为这些公司不仅在大规模囤积GPU，还在争相锁定能源和物理空间来为这些巨型数据中心供电。他们正在与熟练电工和制冷专家签订长期合同。最近有人跟我描述了一个新兴市场——数据中心熟练电工如今在全国各地飞来飞去赚取巨额收入，堪比页岩气繁荣时期那些奔赴北达科他州的钻井工人。

So becoming chip pilled, I am learning, is just the first step in the journey of becoming infrastructure pilled because not only are these companies doing big deals to lock up the GPUs, they are also doing big deals to lock up the energy and the physical space to power these chips in these giant data centers. They are locking up contracts with skilled electricians and cooling specialists. There's now sort of a market I was I was having a conversation with someone recently who described the the sort of boom in skilled electricians for these data centers who are now flying all over the country making just gobs and gobs of money. They compared it to, like, the fracking boom when you had these, like, riggers and and and drillers who would, like, go up to North Dakota for, you know, a month, a year, and make a ton of money. They said this is basically what electricians who work on these data centers are doing now.

因此我预计将出现爆炸式增长的不仅是支撑AI模型的GPU，还包括电力供应、数据中心、冷却系统以及最基础的能源——那些为数据中心所在州电网供电的天然气和石油。AI公司将会在这些领域达成大量交易。

So I expect there to be a massive boom in not just the GPUs that power the models, but the power supplies and the data centers and the cooling systems and the literal energy, like the the the natural gas and oil that power the electrical grids in the states where these data centers are going up. I expect that the AI companies are going to be doing lots of deals in those industries as well.

好吧，我觉得之前节目里能用上的芯片双关语都已经被我榨干了。所以这期节目就到此为止吧——不过现在我突然很想吃鳄梨酱了。

Alright. Well, I feel like I've already exhausted all of the chip related puns that I would normally use to end a segment on previous episodes. So I guess I'll just say this segment has made me hungry for guacamole.

你知道他们把关于薯片的片段结尾叫什么吗？

You know what they call the end of a segment about chips?

叫什么？薯片夹子。太完美了。

What's that? A chip clip. Perfect.

广告之后，

When we come back,

我们将和凯蒂·纳托普洛斯一起悠闲地闻闻玫瑰花香。

we'll slop and smell the roses with Katie Natopoulos.

嗨，我是《纽约时报》游戏的朱丽叶，在这里和玩家们聊聊我们的游戏。你玩《纽约时报》游戏吗？是的，每天都玩。这里有个小标签叫'朋友'。

Hi. I'm Juliette from New York Times games, and I'm here talking to fans about our games. You play New York Times games Yes. Every day. There's this little tab down here called friends.

这样你就可以添加好友了。这对我来说很新鲜。确实是的。有社交元素真好。天啊。

So you could add your friend. That feels new to me. It is. It's nice to have the social aspect. Oh my god.

而且你还能看到所有人的成绩。太疯狂了吧？你可以查看拼字蜜蜂、词语迷阵、词语连线。我的天。

And you have all their times. That's crazy. Right? You can look at Spelling Bee, Wordle, Connections. Oh my god.

太棒了。我喜欢这个。我得下载这个应用。

Amazing. Love that. I have to get the app.

《纽约时报》游戏订阅用户可畅玩所有游戏和功能。立即访问nytimes.com/games获取特别优惠。

New York Times game subscribers get full access to all our games and features. Subscribe now at nytimes.com/games for a special offer.

凯西，上周我们讨论了OpenAI的视频生成模型Sora two，以及它被用来创造的各种神奇‘垃圾’。自那以后，人们对Sora two及其生成的‘垃圾’反应变得更加

Well, Casey, last week, we talked about Sora two, the video generation model from OpenAI, and all of the magical slop it was being used to create. And ever since then, the response to Sora two and its slop generations has gotten a lot

两极分化。确实如此，凯文，因为一方面，这周它登上了美国应用商店榜首。截至我们本周录制时，它仍是排名第一的免费应用。另一方面，许多版权方表示：等等，你们用刺猬索尼克在做什么？

more polarized. It has, Kevin, because on one hand, this week, it hit number one in The US App Store. As of our recording this week, it is still the top free app. And on the other hand, a lot of copyright holders said, excuse me. You're doing what with Sonic the Hedgehog?

没错。好莱坞没多少人对这个应用感到高兴。经纪公司、电视电影工作室都在发表各种声明，试图让应用下架他们的版权内容。OpenAI实际上已对生成内容做了限制。我们甚至看到YouTube创作者如MrBeast发声，表达对视频生成AI模型最终会影响他们收入的担忧。

Yes. Not many happy folks in Hollywood about this app. Talent agencies and TV and film studios have been, you know, making various statements and trying to get their copyrighted materials pulled down off the app. OpenAI has actually made some changes to what it will generate and what it won't. And we've even started to see YouTube creators like mister beast weighing in and expressing concerns about how video generating AI models could eventually impact their revenue.

是的。告诉你，我看到越来越多YouTube大创作者开始正视这个问题。Casey Neistat也为此做了期精彩视频。一方面，Casey显然非常担忧‘垃圾’内容兴起对其生计的影响；另一方面，他又用Sora为视频做了些极具创意的尝试——这正体现了真正的矛盾：这项技术确实对许多人的经济来源构成威胁，

Yeah. This I I'll tell you, I'm seeing many more big creators on YouTube starting to reckon with this. Casey Neistat also had a great video about this subject. And on one hand, Casey is obviously very concerned about what the rise of slot means for his livelihood. On the other hand, he used Sora in some really creative ways for this video, which to me speaks to the real tension here, which is that this does seem to create a real economic threat to a lot of people.

但另一方面，它又能创造出有趣的创意内容。所以今天凯文，我们想和一位正在用Sora进行创意实践的人聊聊——包括用我们的数字形象做些有趣的事。

And on the other hand, it does do something creatively interesting. And so today, Kevin, we wanna talk to somebody who is doing something pretty creatively interesting with Sora, and that would include doing creatively interesting things with us or at least our digital likenesses.

是的。这档节目该来点‘垃圾内容问责’了。今天我们请到了凯蒂·纳托普洛斯。她是《商业内幕》负责科技与文化报道的高级记者，同时也是一位深受网友喜爱的网络恶搞达人。她制作了大量视频专门恶搞我们俩，当然还有其他科技记者。

Yes. It's time for some slop accountability on this show. Today, we are bringing in Katie Natopoulos. She's a senior correspondent for Business Insider covering tech and culture, and she is also a beloved Internet troll. She's been making, you know, many, many videos specifically trolling the two of us, but also other tech reporters.

现在我打开Sora动态，一半是山姆·奥特曼，另一半全是凯蒂·尼索普洛斯。

And when I open up my Sora feed now, it is like half Sam Altman and the other half Katie Nisopoulos.

没错。不熟悉凯蒂的人可能不知道，她之前的恶作剧包括在Threads上线时假装自己是该应用的主编，甚至让一些主流媒体信以为真。它们报道了她被解雇的假新闻——这事根本不存在，因为她压根没担任过那个职位。她还在Threads上发布了我见过最搞笑的虚假互动钓鱼帖。所以Sora问世时，我就知道她肯定要搞些出格的事。

Yeah. If you're not familiar with Katie, her previous pranks include when threads launched pretending that she was the editor in chief of the app and managing to convince some mainstream publications that this was true. They reported on her firing, which never happened because she didn't have the job. She also posted some of the most hilarious, fake engagement baits on thread that I've ever seen. And so when Sora came along, I knew she would be doing something inappropriate with it.

只是没想到会牵扯到我和你的脸。

It just hadn't occurred to me that that would involve my face and yours.

没错。所以今天我们邀请她来聊聊她的Sora创作、人们对AI生成视频垃圾的反感，以及她认为这一切将如何发展。

Yeah. So today, we've invited her on to talk about her Sora creations, the backlash to AI generated video slop, and where she thinks this is all going.

凯蒂·纳托普洛斯，欢迎来到《硬分叉》。

Katie Natopoulos, welcome to Hard Fork.

非常感谢你们的邀请。

Thank you so much for having me.

凯蒂，你知道的，我一直密切关注你的工作，因为你在我报道的社交网络上总是玩得最尽兴。而Sora看来也不例外。你最近写了篇文章，标题是'哼哼，我是Sora二代AI饲料的小猪仔'。快说说是什么让你变成了这样的小饲料猪。

Well, Katie, you know, I always pay close attention to your work because you are usually having more fun on the social networks that I cover than anyone else is. And Sora, it seems, is no exception. You recently wrote an article titled, oink oink, I'm a little piggy for Sora two's AI slop. Tell us about what turned you into such a little slop piggy.

我得说这确实是第一次让我产生'天啊我好爱这个，太好玩了'的AI体验。刚获得权限的头两天，我简直停不下来地制作视频。这是种奇妙的社交怪诞体验，我太着迷了。

I will say that this really was the first AI experience where I was like, oh, I love this. I'm having fun. And the first day or two that I got access to it, like, I could not stop making videos. It was an amazing social weird experience. I I loved it.

我玩得超级开心，尽管最初我以为它既不酷也没意思。事实上Sora开放当天，我连整篇唱衰文章都写好了——因为就在他们刚宣布要推出带AI视频推送的新社交应用时，我还觉得'这玩意儿糟透了'，以为会是那种元宇宙的调调，觉得'这主意烂透了'。

I was having so much fun, and I went in thinking it was not gonna be cool and not gonna be fun. In fact, I literally had an entire article drafted for the day that Sora opened that was about, like, this is a terrible idea because it was they had just announced, oh, there's gonna be a new social app with a or, like, with a AI video social feed. And was like, that stinks. I thought it was gonna be, like, the meta vibes. I was like, this is a terrible idea.

没人需要这个。太差劲了。糟糕透顶。巴拉巴拉...最后我只好把整篇稿子都废掉了。

No one wants this. It stinks. It's awful. Blah blah blah. I had to scrap the whole thing.

所以我

So I

当时就惊呼'等等兄弟，这太棒了！我超爱这个'，超爱你

was like, wait, dude. This is awesome. I love it so much. Love that you

像最高法院记者那样预先写好网络评论——就是那种要为两种对立结果各准备一份稿子的操作。太有意思了，你肯定有个塞满废弃科技评论的草稿文件夹吧。

prewrite your Internet takes like a like a supreme court reporter who, like, has to do, like, one for one result and one for another. I love this. You just have, like, a a draft folder full of, like, discarded tech takes.

是啊。其他人会提前写讣告，而凯蒂则自由发挥，写得好坏参半。

Yeah. Other people, like, write obituaries in advance, and Katie is free writing slop good or and slop bad.

本来应该是基于前一天的一份报告，实际上那天开放了，但我不知道第二天就要发布。我以为只是宣布这个东西会存在，当时还想，啊，这肯定很糟糕。但我错了。

It was supposed to be based on the there was had been a report the day before that it actually opened up that they and I didn't know that it was going to launch the next day. I I thought it was just it was the announcement this will exist, and I was thinking, ah, this is gonna stink. But I was wrong.

有没有哪个你看到或制作的视频，改变了你对Sora能力的看法？

Was there a particular video either that you saw or that you made that changed the way that you thought about what Sora could be?

我觉得约翰·赫尔曼做过一个视频，是

I think John Herman made a video that was

《纽约杂志》撰稿人，前Hard Forecast成员。

writer for New York Magazine and former Hard Forecast.

对。我记得视频里他像是在走路，但腿特别长，在沃尔玛超市里，脑袋一直蹭到天花板，看起来特别滑稽。我非常喜欢这个。后来他又做了一个我演讲TED的视频，但中途我突然腹泻。我觉得这简直太搞笑了。

That's yeah. I I think it was he was, like, walking along, but had really, really long legs and was at a Walmart and kept scraping his head at the top of the Walmart ceiling, which is just visually very amusing. And I really liked that. And then he made one of me giving a TED talk, but then I have, like, explosive diarrhea in the middle of it. And that I found extremely funny.

我当时就想，这就是我想要的。我太爱这个了。可以制作朋友出糗的视频，现在觉得特别有趣。

And I was like, this is this is all I want. I I love this. Like, I can make videos of my friends doing embarrassing things, and this is funny now.

说到这个甜蜜的话题，现在可能是欣赏凯蒂作品的好时机。我在想是否可以从她的代表作开始——那段我和凯文在播客录音室里失控排气的视频。能放出来看看吗？

Sweet speaking of which, this might be a good time to start looking at some of Katie's creations. And I wonder if we could start with what maybe her magnum opus, which is a video of Kevin and I in the podcast recording studio having uncontrollable flatulence. Can we queue that one up?

哦，我还没看过这段呢。

Oh, I have not seen this one yet.

这段视频的标题是'凯西·牛顿和凯文·鲁斯正在录播客，但不停放屁'。

This this video has the caption, Casey Newton and Kevin Roose are podcasting, but keep farting.

回到节目上来。我们还有

Back to the show. We have a

很多内容要讨论。但首先——天啊。来了来了。抱歉，这个屁来得猝不及防。

lot to cover today. But first oh, boy. Here we go. Sorry. That one came out of nowhere.

这是今天第一个即兴排气。哦不，我也中招了。这是会传染的。我们实在不该...

That was the first hot take of the day. Oh, no. It got me too. It's contagious. We cannot be too.

然后凯蒂...凯蒂还不满足，决定做个混音版。让我们听听更响亮更频繁的屁声。哇哦。欢迎回到节目，我们还有很多

And and then Katie Katie was not satisfied and decided to do a remix. Let's hear farts are louder and more frequent. Wow. Welcome back to the show. We have a lot

今天要讨论的内容，但首先

to cover today, but first

哦，天啊。又长又响的屁声。好吧。那么，凯蒂，带我们了解一下你的创作过程。大致给我们讲讲。

Oh, boy. Long, loud fart. Alright. So, Katie, take us inside your creative process for this. Kind of walk us through.

最初的创意从何而来，然后你是如何将其实现的？

Where does the original idea come from, and then how did you see it to fruition?

嗯，说实话，我得说这次有点让人失望。我本来期待更多放屁声。比如

Well, you know, actually have to say, I think this one was a bit disappointing. I was hoping for more frequent farts. Like

是啊。

Yeah.

第一部里我们确实听到凯西放屁，凯文说'我也放了'时也算有个暗示的屁声，但没真的听到。对吧？我本来期待你们能发出一连串此起彼伏的声响，那会很有趣的。

In the first one, we really hear Casey fart, and and we sort of get an implied fart from Kevin when he says, I've got it too, but we don't hear it. Right? You know? I was thinking I really wanted, like, a cacophony of of noises coming out of you guys. I thought that would be funny.

第二部也没完全达标。所以，这方面还有改进空间。

And the second one didn't fully nail it either. So, you know, room for improvement there.

是啊。他们还需要再多花几万亿美金买GPU，才能把凯蒂想放的所有屁都包括进去。

Yeah. They're gonna need a few more trillion dollars of GPUs to include all of the farts that Katie wants.

对啊对啊。我是说，我就觉得那会很好笑。对吧？你看着我的脸告诉我

Yeah. Yeah. I mean, you know, I just thought that would be funny. Right? I mean, look at me in the face and tell

这不好笑。确实不好笑，但我不能那么说。那样不诚实。不行。

me it's not funny. It's not funny, but I can't tell you that. It would not be honest. No.

我最近稍微试用了下Sora，有几次碰到了他们的内容护栏，系统会说'这个视频不能做，请重试'。你遇到过这种情况吗？你本来想做什么视频却被OpenAI那些审查大佬给拦住了？

So I have been playing around with Sora a little bit, and I have had the experience of bumping up against some of their content guardrails where they will say, we can't make a video of that. Try again. Have you been bumping into those, and what are some of the videos that you tried to make but were prevented from by the censorious overlords at at OpenAI?

没错，感觉老碰到这种情况。有几次我试着让它模仿某个名人风格，比如'以某某风格呈现'，结果就被拒绝了。比如我想做个凯西像冷石·史蒂夫·奥斯汀那样进办公室的视频——玻璃碎裂，出场音乐响起，他走进来把啤酒罐捏爆那种，还让他穿皮背心和牛仔短裤。

Yeah. I feel like constantly I'm bumping into those. I've definitely had ones where, like, I am trying to get it to be similar to like, I'm using maybe, like, a a celebrity's name, like, in the style of, and it will reject that. Like, in examples, I wanted to make one of Casey, like, entering his work office in the style of Stone Cold Steve Austin where, you know, glass breaks, and he has entrance music, and he comes in, and he, like, you know, crushes the beers. And I wanted it, like, in a leather vest and jorts.

对吧？我试了这个，开始被拒说是可能涉及色情，我估计是因为皮背心里没穿衬衫。后来改成黑T恤配牛仔短裤，但一提'冷石·史蒂夫·奥斯汀风格'就直接被否了。

Right? And so I tried that, and at first, it rejected because it said it could be sexual, which I realized is probably the leather vest with no shirt underneath. So I had to scrap that. I went back to, like, black T shirt and jorts. And then I said, I think in the style of Stone Cold Steve Austin, it was like, uh-uh.

说是不能模仿真人形象之类的。最后我删掉这部分提示词，只给了些基本指令。说实话成品效果还挺不错的。

Like, can't do, you know, likenesses of other people, whatever their verbiage is. And I had to remove that and just sort of, you know, give enough prompts. And honestly, I think it actually came out pretty well.

是的。这个视频确实成功了。我们来看看这个？有效的提示是，我'以职业摔跤手入场的方式走进办公室会议'，穿着牛仔短裤和黑色T恤，上面写着'凯西3:16'。

Yeah. This one, you did actually get to work. Why don't we watch this one? The prompt that works for for what it's worth is that I, quote, walk into a meeting in my office in the style of a pro wrestler's entrance. I wear jorts and a black T shirt that says Casey three sixteen.

这当然是在致敬著名的奥斯汀3:16T恤。我打开啤酒痛饮，入场时伴随着玻璃破碎声和重金属音乐。所以你刚才描述的就是冷石史蒂夫·奥斯汀的摔跤入场式，我觉得Sora在这里做得相当不错。要播放这个吗？

That's, of course, a reference to the famous Austin three sixteen T shirts. I crack open beers and chug them, and when I walk in, there's the sound of breaking glass and heavy guitar music plays. So you were just describing Stone Cold Steve Austin's Mhmm. Pro wrestling entrance, and I think Sora did a pretty good job here. Do we wanna pull this one up?

好。

Yeah.

KC 3:16驾到。

K c three sixteen is in the building.

现在这是什么情况？

What is happening right now?

干杯。天啊。

Cheers. Oh my gosh.

等啤酒喝完会议就开始。好了，我们言归正传。

Meeting starts when the beers are gone. Alright. Let's get to business.

好的。我又喜欢上它了

Okay. I like it again

因为你成功打开了啤酒罐，甚至没有碰到罐顶。这有点像

because you managed to open the can of beer without touching the the top of the can of beer. It just kind of like

我不太擅长这个。

I'm not good.

自动打开的。

Autonomously opened.

我不太擅长。但凯蒂，说到你的观点，其实有很多版权保护措施已经到位，这可能会让你惊讶，不过你一直在关注关于Sora的讨论。当然，很多版权方都很担忧。但是凯蒂，我试着生成一个你嫁给怀孕的音速小子的视频，Sora直接拒绝了。

I'm not good. But to your point, Katie, there are a lot of copyright guardrails in place, which may surprise you, but you've been reading the discourse around Sora. Of course, a lot of rights holders are worried. But, Katie, I tried to make a video of you getting married to a pregnant Sonic the Hedgehog, and Sora just refused.

有意思。这让你意外吗？我得说我感觉最近比较少看到那些任天堂角色了，比如皮卡丘嗯。音速小子嗯。

Interesting. Does that surprise you? I will say that I feel like I've seen less of those Nintendo characters, like Pikachu Mhmm. Sonic. Mhmm.

我在想这是否属于某种特定限制。但当你浏览内容时，很明显每个人都在拼命试探规则边界对吧？比如它当然不会让你生成希特勒，但如果是穿着二战制服、留着小胡子、带德国口音的人呢？没错，它确实允许这样。

I wonder if that sort of a specific thing. But it's also, like, when you're looking at the feed, it's so clear that everyone is trying so hard to, like, push the rules. Right? Like, sure, it won't let you do Hitler, but will it do, you know, a person in a World War two uniform with a mustache and speaking in a German accent? Like, yes, it will let you do that.

对吧？我看过好多类似的视频。

Right? So I've seen, like, a lot of videos like that.

这太有意思了，因为它居然会这样。我之前尝试让你审问一只卡通猫是否吃光了千层面，结果它说由于版权原因不能这么做。所以可能加菲猫比希特勒受到更多保护，如果真是这样那就有趣了。

That's so interesting that it'll do that because I tried to make a video of you interrogating a cartoon cat about whether it had eaten all the lasagna, and it told me it couldn't do it for copyright reasons. So it's possible that there are more protections on Garfield than there are on Hitler, which would be interesting if that's true.

确实啊。

That's yeah.

我们俩都需要培养点爱好。

We both need hobbies.

我就直说了。

I'll just say it.

这就是我们的爱好啊，凯文。

This is our hobby, Kevin.

没错，凯文。

Yeah, Kevin.

我们有一个，就叫线上状态。

We have one. It's called being online.

是啊。

Yeah.

我特别喜欢做那些人们穿着旱冰鞋在办公桌前，不断滑倒摔跤的视频。我觉得特别好笑。但做了几次后，就因为涉及暴力被拒了。

I really liked doing ones of people, like, on roller skates at a desk, and they, like, keep slipping and falling over. I just I find that very funny. But a couple times doing that, I would get the rejection for, like, violence.

不得不说，你最近做的这类视频让我今天早上在咖啡店笑出声了。我知道你做了个关于Alex Heath的——我们大家的朋友，一位优秀记者，刚离开Verge创办自己的新闻简报。来看看他的数字形象穿着旱冰鞋摔跤的样子吧。

I I have to say that this particular genre of clips that you've been making was making me laugh out loud in the coffee shop this morning. I know that you made one of Alex Heath, a friend of all of ours, a great reporter, just left the verge to start his own newsletter sources. Let's take a look at his digital likeness flopping around on roller skates.

泰坦墙滑冰。开始了。哇哦。哇哦。不行。

Titan wall skating. Here we go. Woah. Woah. Nope.

哎哟。好吧。第二轮。集中精神。准备好。

Ow. Okay. Round two. Focus. Get ready.

不行。又摔了。我就坐着吧。这算成功了吧？

Nope. There it goes. I'm just gonna sit. This counts. Right?

不知为何，就是有一个效果特别好。我试过很多次，就那个，怎么说呢，恰到好处。他不断摔倒却显得毫不在意，而且摔得特别狠。

For some reason, like, one just works really well. I've done this with a bunch of other times, and that one, it just, like, it hits the right way. Like, the way he keeps falling but seems completely unfazed, and, like, he eats it hard.

我们来聊聊这个。看这些片段确实很有趣，但很容易想象人们会用这类东西互相欺凌，让人不开心。你在应用里见过这种情况吗？对于人们可能用这种工具作恶的世界，你怎么看？

Well, let's talk about that. You know, we've been having some fun taking a look at these clips, but it's easy to look at this and imagine people using this kind of thing to bully each other, you know, make each other unhappy. Have you seen any of that on the app itself yet? And how do you think about sort of living in a world where people may be using tools like this to do that?

我确实见过。现在应用上线一周左右，最初那波用户主要是取笑Sam Altman或小范围人群。但现在我看到很多新用户是 teenage boys。感觉形成了某种生态，Jake Paul几乎是上面唯一的明星，还有几个游戏主播开始入驻，但整体变成了 teenage boy 的圈子。所以有很多互相取笑、说别人是gay之类的内容。

I definitely have seen it. Right now, what I've noticed is that now that it's been out for about a week, the sort of initial wave of, you know, people making fun of Sam Altman or, like, a really small pool of users, And the new cohort of users I tend to see a lot on there are, like, teenage boys. And I kind of think that there's this effect where Jake Paul is pretty much, like, the only celebrity on there. And then there's a couple other, like, gaming streamers who have started coming on, but it's become this very, like, teenage boy ecosystem world. And so there's a lot of stuff of making fun of each other, being gay, things like that.

甚至形成了'Jake Paul是gay'的专属流派。你懂的，对吧？

There's, like, a whole genre of Jake Paul is gay Mhmm. On there, which, you know, Right?

是的。我很高兴你提到这点，因为就像可以让人在轮滑上摔倒取乐一样，这工具也可能被用来霸凌。我好奇OpenAI会如何应对，当Sora在学校泛滥、让孩子们不开心时。Kevin，你对Sora这方面的潜在问题怎么看？

Yeah. I mean, I I think it's, I'm I'm glad that you draw attention to that because in the same way that you can have fun making somebody fall over on roller skates, you can just use this to bully someone. And I'm curious, you know, what OpenAI is going to do once we start hearing about Sora running wild in schools and, you know, making a lot of kids unhappy. Kevin, what do what do you think about that kind of aspect of the Sora experience? Yeah.

我认为这

I think it's

显然不好。我不希望它被用作霸凌工具。虽然有些设置可以限制——比如限制能制作你形象的人数，或完全禁止他人使用你的形象。还可以在输入框注明不希望你的形象被用于哪些场景，进行一定限制。

obviously not good. Like, I don't want this to be used as a tool for bullying people. There are some sort of ways that you can try to prevent this from happening to you. There's a setting where you can sort of limit the number of people who can make cameos of you or or you can make it so that no one can make cameos of you. You can also sort of type into a little box and like, if there are any situations you don't wanna be your likeness to be used in, you can kind of restrict it.

比如，你知道的，别把我放在任何浪漫场景或类似情境里，他们会尽量遵守这一点。我很好奇，Sam Altman和其他OpenAI高管这周在开发者日提到，他们认为人们不会拒绝使用自己的形象。实际上，他们预见未来人们会因自己的形象在Sora中使用不足而不满，甚至会主动要求更多使用自己的形象。

Like, you know, don't put me in any, like, romantic situations or anything like that, and they will try to obey that. I'm curious. So one of the things that Sam Altman and other OpenAg executives were saying this week at Dev Day was that they don't think that people will opt out of having their likenesses used. In fact, they foresee in the future that people will be upset that their likenesses aren't being used more inside Sora. They will sort of be be asking for more likenesses to be used of them.

根据你使用这款应用的经验，你觉得这种预测可信吗？

Do you think that's plausible based on your experience with this app?

我的判断是，OpenAI的人根本没想到事情会这样发展。我认为这个预测未必会成真。最让我立刻注意到的是，平台上几乎没有女性用户，对吧？整个生态极其男性化。

My assessment here is that the people at OpenAI had no idea how this was gonna play out. And I think that that prediction is not necessarily going to be true. I I the most noticeable thing to me right off the bat is that there's basically no women on there. Right? Like, it is incredibly male.

对吧？可能早期使用者多是从事AI工作的，这个群体确实偏男性，但也不至于如此极端。我觉得所有人都能明显感觉到，女性不愿让他人用自己的脸制作视频是有明显原因的——她们天生更清楚这背后的风险。

Right? And, you know, maybe there's a little bit of, like, oh, the early, you know, early adopters were people who work in AI, and that skews kind of male, but not that male. Right? And I think it just feels incredibly obvious to everyone that there's an obvious reason why women don't wanna let other people make videos with their faces. Like, they sort of inherently understand the downside of that a lot more.

所以我认为这种状况不会改变。

And so I I I don't think that's going to change.

确实。

Yeah.

我不确定。Kevin，说实话我已经给Sam Altman写过投诉信了，抱怨我在Sora上只出现在两个放屁相关的视频里，正在问他能不能改善这种情况。

I don't know. I I have to say, Kevin, I've actually already written to Sam Altman complaining that I've only appeared in two fart related videos on Sora, and I'm wondering what he can do to change that.

你的经纪人非常愤怒。

Your agent is furious.

愤怒。但是，凯蒂，说到你的观点，不仅对许多女性来说，在Sora上公开自己的形象明显存在弊端，而且也没有明确的好处。对吧？就像，你到底能得到什么？但这实际上引出了我想问你的下一个问题，KV，关于创作者和好莱坞人士对Sora应用所代表的一些更广泛担忧。

Furious. But but, Katie, to your point, like, not only is it, like, obvious what the downside is for a lot of women to to sort of make their likenesses generally available on Sora, there's no clear upside. Right? It's like, what what are you getting out of it exactly? But that actually gets to the next question that I wanted to ask you, KV, which is about some of the broader concerns that we're starting to hear from creators and Hollywood types about what the Sora app represents.

你知道吗？过去一周，你、我和凯文花了一些时间在Sora应用上，而不是看YouTube或Netflix，甚至去电影院看电影。所以我很好奇你对AI生成视频的整体看法，不仅是Sora，还有TikTok上的意大利脑残视频以及其他地方出现的类似内容。你认为随着时间的推移，这会真正替代更高质量的作品，还是可能只是昙花一现？

You know? You and I and Kevin have now spent some amount of time over the past week looking at the Sora app when we might have otherwise been looking at YouTube or Netflix or, I don't know, even going out to see a movie in a theater. So I'm curious about your take on AI generated video in general, maybe not just Sora, but also Italian brain rot on TikTok and the sort of all of the other places that this is cropping up. Do you think that this is over time going to become a true substitute for sort of higher quality productions, or is this maybe just a flash in the pan?

你知道吗？我有点摸不着头脑，我我我不知道。我花了这么多时间在这上面。所以我真的需要重新考虑一下。我是说，我觉得我已经有点厌倦了。新鲜感消失了，我不太可能继续制作关于我朋友、陌生人或其他内容的这类视频。

You know, I'm scratching my head, and I I I don't know. I spent so many hours doing things on this. And so I really have to, you know, rethink that a little. I mean, I will say that like, I kind of think I'm kind of over it. Like, the the novelty factor wore off, and I don't really see myself continuing to make these kinds of videos about my friends or about strangers or about other stuff.

而且我对与朋友无关的内容几乎没有兴趣。

And I have very little interest in consuming content that is not with my friends.

是的。我的观点是，Sora是群聊的完美工具，但它作为一个独立的社交网络并不合理。我发现我自己对Sora的使用在过去几天急剧下降。我也已经有点厌倦它的新鲜感了。

Yeah. I mean, my sort of thesis about Sora is that this is a perfect tool for the group chat. And it really doesn't make sense to have it be a standalone social network. I have found my own use of Sora has plummeted over the last few days. I am also kind of, like, over the novelty of it.

但我可以想象一种情况，比如在和朋友群聊时，我可能会想制作点什么。所以我用Sora制作，可能甚至不发布，只是下载后分享到群聊。但我对这种AI生成视频的主流化相当悲观，部分原因是我们看到了对劣质和AI生成内容的大规模文化反弹。

But I can imagine a situation which, like, in a group chat with my friends, I would wanna, like, make something. So I go to Sora, make it. Maybe I don't even post it. Maybe I just, you know, download it and and share it in the group chat. But I I'm I'm pretty pessimistic about the sort of mainstreaming of this this kind of AI generated video, in part because I think we're seeing this, like, massive cultural backlash to slop and just AI generated stuff.

显然，有人喜欢这类内容，但我认为反对声浪足够大，现在还不是它成为主流的时候。

Clearly, there are people who like this content, but I think there's enough of a backlash that I I don't think it's time for this to go mainstream just yet.

凯文，我同意你的观点，但可能不是基于你们争论的理由。我认为它无法完全主流化的原因在于——尽管这项技术确实很棒，我得承认它能做出些惊人的东西——但还不足以获得全面主流认可。对吧？在Sora里，关于我自身形象的许多操作仍无法实现。

So I agree with that, Kevin, but maybe not for the reason that you guys are arguing. I think the reason that it isn't gonna go fully mainstream is because as good as the technology technology is, is, and I wanna make clear, like, does some amazing stuff. I just think it's not good enough to get full mainstream adoption. Right? There are still so many things that I wish I could do with my own likeness in Sora that I can't do.

我不是指使用受版权保护的内容（虽然那可能很有趣），而是说为什么不能换装？为什么声音不像我本人？为什么视频片段限制在十秒内？这些都是技术障碍或公司尚未推出的产品功能。

And I'm not talking about using copyrighted material, although, of course, that might be a lot of fun. I'm talking about, like, why can't I, like, change my outfit? Why doesn't my voice actually sound like me? Why are the video clips limited to ten seconds? These are all just, like, technical hurdles or product moves that the company hasn't made yet.

我认为当这些问题解决后，人们会更接受它。一方面我理解你的意思：它现在像个新鲜玩具，我们已经玩腻了。但玩具会改进，使用率也会提升。ChatGPT的发展历程就是最佳例证。

And I think when they do, there's going to be a greater embrace of this. And so on one hand, I hear what you're saying. This is kind of like a little novelty toy and we're tired of playing with it. The toy will probably get better and you may use it more. And the best evidence I have for that is that is also how ChatGPT worked.

人们最初接触ChatGPT时，用一两次就觉得没意思准备放弃。但逐渐改进后，现在有8亿用户。所以千万别低估AI生成视频的潜力。

People's initial experience of ChatGPT was like, use it once or twice. I'm I I didn't kinda really see the point. I'm gonna go away. But bit by bit, it got better, and now 800,000,000 people use it. So I'm saying do not sleep on AI generated video.

我真心认为这项技术会持续发展。凯蒂，通常采访到这里该感谢嘉宾，但这次我要发停止函了。不过很感谢你本周参与节目，我会盯着你的——我会捂着眼睛，然后从指缝里看你接下来又要搞什么恶作剧。

I truly do think it is here to stay. Well, Katie, normally, is the part of the interview where I thank the guest. Instead, I'm gonna issue a cease and desist. But I do appreciate the time that you've spent with us here on the show this week. And I will be watching you know, I'm I'm gonna cover my my eyes and then just sort of, like, look through my fingers to see what what trolling activity you got up to next.

好的。感谢你的到来，别再闹了。

Yes. Thank you for coming and knock it off.

非常感谢大家邀请我。我绝对不会收敛，我会等待下一个平台出现，然后变本加厉。谢谢，

Well, thank you guys so much for having me. I absolutely will not knock it off, and I will wait until the next platform that comes around, and I will do even worse. Thanks,

凯蒂。谢谢凯蒂。本节目由惠特尼·琼斯和瑞秋·科恩制作，詹·波扬特担任剪辑，威尔·皮舍尔负责事实核查。

Katie. Thanks, Katie. Hardfork is produced by Whitney Jones and Rachel Cohen. We're edited by Jen Poyant. We're fact checked by Will Pyschel.

本期节目由艾丽莎·莫克斯利负责技术制作，原创音乐来自玛丽昂·洛萨诺、黛安·王和丹·鲍威尔。视频制作团队包括索耶·罗奎特、帕特·冈瑟、杰克·尼科尔和克里斯·肖特。完整版可在YouTube的youtube.com/hardfork观看。特别感谢保拉·舒曼、谭奎荣、达莉娅·哈达德和杰弗里·米兰达。

Today's show is engineered by Alyssa Moxley. Original music by Marion Lozano, Diane Wong, and Dan Powell. Video production by Sawyer Roquet, Pat Gunther, Jake Nichol, and Chris Schott. You can watch this full episode on YouTube at youtube.com/hardfork. Special thanks to Paula Schuman, Kuiwing Tam, Dalia Haddad, and Jeffrey Miranda.

欢迎随时通过HardFork@NYTimes.com联系我们，分享你的万亿级投资创意。

You can email us as always at HardFork@NYTimes.com. Send us your trillion dollar investment ideas.