亮点：Greg Jensen——桥水联合基金的联席首席投资官

大家好。

Hi, everybody.

每周五我们都会推出这个播客的简短版，请记得收听。

Tune in to this short version of the podcast, we do every Friday.

完整版请每周三收听。

For the long version, tune in on Wednesdays.

大家好，欢迎来到《In Good Company》节目。

Hi, everybody, and welcome to In Good Company.

今天和我一起的是格雷格·詹森，他是桥水基金的联合首席投资官。

And today, I'm here with Greg Jensen, who is the co CIO of Bridgewater.

桥水基金是一家了不起的对冲基金，可以说是全球规模最大、最优秀的。

Now, Bridgewater is just an incredible hedge fund, the world's largest and best, I think we can say.

格雷格，很荣幸你能来参加节目。

And it's an honor to have you here, Greg.

谢谢邀请。

Thanks for having me.

你目前正在投入时间的最重要事项是什么？

What are the most important things you are spending time on just now?

你在关注什么？

What are you looking at?

是的。

Yeah.

如果从宏观层面来说，我关注或聚焦的三大主题是：第一，全球及美国经济管理方式的变革。

If I said sort of at the the biggest level, the three big themes that I'm concerned about or focused on are a, the change in how the global and US economy is being managed.

本质上就是我们所说的向现代重商主义的转变。

Essentially what we call a shift to modern mercantilism.

这是对中国崛起的反应。

That's been a reaction to China's rise.

它引发了西方世界的政治变革，在美国表现得尤为明显，导致形成了一套全新的经济运行理念。

It's created political changes across the West, probably most clearly in The US, leading to a whole different philosophy on how to run the economy.

所以这是第一个重大主题。

So that's one big theme.

现代重商主义，美国在经济和地缘政治条件下的运作方式。

Modern mercantilism, the way The US is operating both with respect to economics, but also with respect to geopolitical conditions.

巨大变革，理解这一点至关重要。

Huge change, really important to understand.

第二点是我们正身处其中的技术变革。

The second is the technological change that we're in the midst of.

正如我们稍后会讨论的，我长期关注并研究人工智能，机器学习领域已有十五年经验，更广泛地说贯穿了我的整个职业生涯。

I've been, as I'm sure we'll get into, thinking about and working with AI for a very long time, now machine learning for fifteen years and more generally my whole career.

我记得人们过去常说，格雷格，你为什么总在谈论人工智能？

And I remember people used to say, Greg, why are you talking about AI all the time?

现在没人这么说了。

Nobody says that anymore.

最终被证明是对的这种感觉不错。

It's nice to be right at the end.

嗯，还有很多

Well, there's a lot

一路上犯过不少错误，有很多可以出错的地方。

of being wrong along the way, plenty to be wrong about.

但这非常重要，对吧？

But it's so important, right?

它占到了三分之一到一半的比重，涉及地缘政治、市场等方方面面。

It's a third to half of everything, geopolitics, markets, everything.

你必须理解它才能把握宏观世界。

You have to understand it to understand the macro world.

第三，这一切发生在美国资本比以往任何时候都更加集中、更集中于股权和非流动性资产的世界里。

Third, that all is happening in a world where capital is more concentrated in The US than ever, more concentrated in equity and illiquid assets.

所以这是一种风险较高的格局。

So a kind of risky setup.

因此要了解资金流向何处、为何流向那里，以及这种流向改变的可能性有多大。

So understanding where money has flowed to, why it's flowed there, and how likely that is to change.

这就是三大要点。

Those are the big three headlines.

头条新闻

Headlines.

好的，这里提醒一下大家我们的讨论框架

Okay, so just to remind everybody of the structure here.

我们讨论了经济、重商主义

We talked about the economy, mercantilism.

我们讨论了科技，涉及了电力、芯片和科学家

We talked about tech, where we touched on power, chips and scientists.

然后第三点也是最后一点是关于资本，所有资本都流向了美国

And then the last of the three points is capital and all the capital has gone to The US.

那么你对此有什么看法？

So what are your thinking here?

是的

Yeah.

这非常有趣，因为另外两个压力在某种程度上相互抵消

It's super interesting because these two other pressures cut against each other to some degree.

但我认为经济已经发生了变化。

But I think the economy has changed.

再简单说一下重商主义。

Just back on mercantilism for a second.

美国已不再是二战后那个美国了。

The US is no longer The US that has been post World War two.

全球机构的理念，甚至美国...

The idea of global institutions and even what The U.

...

S.

当前对其利益的理解已发生根本性改变。

Currently sees in its interest has changed radically.

美国...

The U.

...

S.

美国始终在追求自身利益，但它对国际合作等事项的利益认知已发生重大变化。

Is always pursuing its interest, but what it saw in its interest of international cooperation and things like that have changed in a significant way.

所以我认为你正开始看到这种变化显现。

So I think you are seeing that start to play out.

我们仍处于探索下一步举措的非常早期阶段。

We're still in the very early phase of what the next steps are.

世界其他国家对美国所作所为会采取什么报复措施？

What is the retaliation from the rest of the world against what The US has happened?

今年让我惊讶的一点是，美国某种程度上像个恶霸般出现，直接宣布要提高关税而你们对此无能为力。

One of the things that surprised me this year is that The US came out as a bully in a sense, like came out and said, okay, we're gonna raise your tariffs and you're not gonna do anything about it.

而除了中国之外，所有人都默许了这种行为。

And everybody, except for China, went along with that.

这让我很意外。

I was surprised.

说实话，我记得与政府成员的对话中他们还在问：你们打算怎么实施这个？

Honestly, I remember the conversations with members of the administration saying, like, how are you gonna do this?

比如，他们会反击的。

Like, they're gonna hit back.

而我们极度依赖世界其他国家，不是因为贸易，而是因为资本。

And we are desperately in need of the rest of the world, not because of trade, but because of capital.

那他们为什么不反击呢？

So why are they not hitting back?

我认为首先是因为特朗普成功地逐个击破了对手。

I think people first thing is Trump has been successful in picking people off.

对吧？

Right?

如果你试图反击，他会进一步提高关税，而且所有国家规模都较小，无法以同等力度还击，还要冒着被逐个击破的风险。

If you try to punch back, he raises the tariffs even more, and there is a problem of all the countries being smaller, and so they can't punch in the same size, they take the risk of being picked off.

这是原因之一。

So that's one reason.

但我认为在表面之下，在不太明显的方面，比如如何进行投资等，你会看到各国——尤其是加拿大的立法者——开始表态：好吧，必须投资加拿大了。

I think beneath the surface, though, on things that are less obvious, like how do you invest, etcetera, are seeing countries, you're seeing certainly the lawmakers in Canada saying, okay, gotta invest in Canada.

你看到各地都出现了本土偏好作为对此的反应。

You're seeing home bias everywhere as a reaction to this.

我认为你会看到更多这样的情况。

I think you will see more of that.

但在特朗普担任总统期间反击很困难，因为他会再次出手，你必须准备好应对这场斗争。

But the punching back is difficult with Trump in the presidency because he's gonna punch again and you have to be up for that fight.

但你在政治中看到的将导致这一结果的是：美国在世界其他地区选民中的好感度已经崩溃。

But what you see in the politics, which will lead to this, is The US goodwill among the rest of the world's voters has collapsed.

我们看到从2024年到2025年，世界其他地区对美国支持度的暴跌是史无前例的。

We saw from 2024 to 2025 the biggest collapse in support for The United States in the rest of the world that we've ever seen.

那么现在我们已经描绘了世界的现状及其未来走向。

So now we have set the scene for what the world looks like and what it's going to look like.

所以在这里，我把所有的钱都给你。

So here, I give you all my money.

格雷格·吉布森，你能在我们之后接手杜克的钱吗？

Greg Gibson, could you please take Duke after our money?

你打算怎么处理这笔钱？

What do you do with it?

假设金额是100。

So let's say it's 100.

你具体会把钱放在哪里？又该如何投资？

Just where do you put the money and how do you invest it?

是的，我们理念中与多数人最大的不同在于——我会用这100美元思考如何在各种可能的世界中生存，而非试图挑选最佳方案。

Yeah, the main thing that I'd say is different in our philosophy than most is I would say the way I would take your $100 is to say how do we survive in the wide range of possible worlds rather than try to pick the best thing?

这区别非常明显，对吧？

And that is very different, right?

如果你回顾过去十五年

If you take basically the last fifteen years

抱歉，你一直都是这样思考的吗？

I'm sorry, is that the way you always think?

优先考虑生存而非致富？

Let's survive rather than let's get rich?

或者你认为这就是长期致富之道？

Or do you just think that's the way to get rich in the

长期来看？

long term?

我认为这是长期致富的正确方式。

I think it's the way to get rich in the long term.

因为世界上赚钱的方式有很多，关键是要避免糟糕的结果，这才是财富复利运作的方式。

And that because basically there's a lot of ways to make money in the world, the main thing you want to do is avoid really bad outcomes, and that's how compounding wealth works.

如果你持续盈利并留在游戏中，就能以惊人的方式实现财富复利。

If you keep earning more and you're in the game, you'll be able to compound wealth in an incredible way.

就我目前对世界的观察而言，我认为形势非常危险，这取决于你的地域偏见和地缘政治因素，比如你实际所处的位置。

So for me right now, if I look at the world, I think it's very dangerous, and this depends, like, because you have this home bias move and a lot of the geopolitics, like literally where you're located.

身处挪威在某些方面是优势，在某些方面则是劣势。

Being located in Norway is an advantage, a disadvantage in certain ways.

身处美国在某些方面是优势，在某些方面则是劣势，这会影响你的决策。

Being located in The US is an advantage and disadvantage in certain ways in terms of what you should do.

但在我看来，我认为对大多数人来说，过去十五年是个陷阱。

But to me, where I think most people, the last fifteen years are a trap.

多数人已经放弃了分散投资，因为这十五年来它并未奏效。

Most people have moved away from diversification because it hasn't worked for fifteen years.

你只需要投资美国，美国股票，而且流动性越差越好。

All you needed was The US, US equities, and more illiquid, the better.

这种策略效果出奇地好。

Like, That has worked incredibly well.

我认为这主要是个陷阱。

I think it's mostly a trap.

所以我建议的做法是：建立一个比大多数人更全球多元化的投资组合，因为你无法预知赢家和输家会出现在哪里，而且美国的变化相当剧烈。

So the ways I would do this is, look, get a much more globally diversified portfolio than most people have, and because you don't know where the winners and losers are going to be, and the change of The US are quite radical.

为什么桥水基金如此成功？

Why has Bridgewater been so successful?

我认为桥水做得最成功的一点是明确表示：第一，我们专注。

I think the most important thing that Bridgewater did well was to say, A, we're focused.

两件事：如何深刻理解全球金融体系的运作机制，以及如何构建出色的投资组合？

Two things: how do you deeply understand how the global financial system works, and how do you build great portfolios?

这两件事正是我们所专注的。

Those are the two things that we do.

而推动这一切的核心理念在于通过不断积累认知来实现。

And then to drive that, the idea that you have to do that by compounding understanding.

你必须保持纪律性，记录下你的观点及其依据，并与他人分享以便他们评估其中的正误。

You have to have the discipline to write down what you believe and why you believe it, Share that with others so that they can assess what's wrong about that, what's right about that.

在此基础上持续深化认知积累。

Build that out and keep compounding understanding.

在我看来，专注于这些方面——培养一群真正关心这两大问题运作机制的人才，并将所有经验教训系统记录、转化为算法持续推进——这些要素具有神奇的力量。

So to me, basically, the focus on those things, getting a culture of people who care deeply about how those two things work, and then taking everything we ever learned and having the discipline to write it down, translate it into algorithms, and keep moving forward that way, those are magical pieces.

但在这样的组织中实现知识复利真的可行吗？

But is it possible to compound knowledge within an organization like that?

我认为这是极其困难的。

I think it's very, very difficult.

不过，我确实认为这是可能的，因为我

But yeah, I definitely think it is because I

我的意思是，假设我现在加入了桥水基金。

mean, so now, let's say now I joined Bridgewater.

那么，我就能接触到你们所有的思想成果吗？

So how do, so then I have access to everything you have ever thought?

不，出于安全考虑，你无法直接获取。

No, because of security, you could.

意思是，如果没有安全限制，我们本可以让这一切都开放访问。

Meaning, like, we didn't have security constraints, we could make that all valid.

你本可以查看所有内容。

You could literally see everything.

我们构建的一个惊人之处——我认为极其重要——不仅是所有内容本身，还包括它们如何演变。

And one of the amazing things that we built, which I think is super important, is not only everything, how it changed.

每次我们学到新东西，用新认知替换旧观点，这些记录都完整保留着，对吧？

Every time we learned something new, what we replaced with what we built, that's all available, right?

我可以进入系统查看所有内容，而且值得一提的是，人工智能可以审阅我们关于市场的所有历史观点、我们制定的所有规则、我们如何修改它们以及修改的原因。

I can go in there and see everything, and for what it's worth, AI could read over everything we've ever believed about markets, all the rules we had, how we changed them, why we changed them.

为什么这样做有好处呢？

And why is that good to have?

因为

Because

你无法在大脑中记住所有你曾思考过又遗忘的事情，甚至连你做过的事也记不全。

you can't carry in your brain all of the things that you've thought about and forgotten, not even just that you've done.

现在我们已有数百人研究过中国相关议题，如果你从某人的认知起点开始，这就是我们所说的'复合积累'——我的意思是这些内容必须同时具备人类可读性和机器可读性，即人类能理解运用，计算机也能执行处理。

Now we have hundreds of people that have studied these issues in China that if you start you start from somebody's understanding, that's been what we'd say is to compound it, what I mean by that is it's got to be human readable and computer readable, meaning like a human's got to be able to pick this thing up and make sense of it, and a computer's got to be able to run it.

能够完整保存我们所有的历史信念体系，这具有极其强大的价值。

That is extremely powerful to have that everything that we've ever believed.

你会被反馈意见伤害到吗？

Are you ever hurt by feedback?

当然会。

Sure.

发现当它像

Find When it like

你是否曾因反馈而受伤？

were you lost hurt by feedback?

今天早上。

This morning.

意思是，我有点恼火，因为我决定说，好吧，有人可以向媒体透露这件事，我没有遵循我们的流程。

Meaning, like, I was just sort of annoyed with because I made a decision to say, okay, somebody could talk to the press about this thing, I didn't follow our process.

我以为这是件小事。

I thought it was a small thing.

就在昨天，团队的一个成员谈到我犯的一些错误，比如反复无常就是其中之一，我本以为它的影响会比实际更大，就像今天我能稍微解释一下那样，好吧，这边有AI，等等等等。

And just yesterday, one of the members of the team was talking about some of the things I've been wrong about, I, mercurialism being one, I thought it would have bigger impact than it has as an example, and that I kind of can explain it away a little bit like I did today, well there was AI on this side, and da da da.

所以我收到这个反馈，然后

And so I get this feedback, and

你有没有想过，你知道吗，我已经干了三十年，我富得流油，我清楚自己在说什么，而你才26岁，却来告诉我该怎么做。

Do react you ever think, you know what, I've been doing this for thirty years, I'm stinking rich, I know what I talk about, and here you are, 26 year old, and you're telling me what to do.

没错，这就是我本性中最糟糕的一面，对吧？

Exactly, and that's the thing back like, and that's the worst of me, right?

如果你能意识到并暴露这一点，并让别人在你这样做时指出来，那不是很棒吗？

And if you know it and you expose it and you help other people show it to you when you're doing it, that's great, right?

就像那个26岁的年轻人一样，你得换个角度看问题——那个年轻人不太可能对你说这些，尽管，天啊，能对自己有这些观察认知会让你变得多优秀啊？

The same thing as the 26 year old, you gotta flip that on the other side, that 26 year old's unlikely to say it to you even though, man, how much better are you to have these observations about yourself?

实际上根本没什么坏处。

There's no actual downside.

唯一的不利因素是因为你是个脆弱、会犯错的人类。

There's only downside because you're a weak, fallible human.

说真的，实际损失是什么？

Like, what's the actual downside?

如果我认真倾听并思考：等等，我忽略了什么？

If I listen and think hard about, wait, what am I missing?

我依然富有，但如果我不这么做，我就会错过所有这些珍宝。

I'm still rich, I'm still, if I don't, I miss out on all of these jewels.

所以我在这方面确实有缺陷，我能感受到那种愤怒，那种‘你他妈算老几’的情绪——抱歉这么说——但我确实能感受到，而且在这方面我有太多经验，所以每当我感受到这种情绪时，我会珍视它。

So I am definitely flawed in that, I feel it, I feel that anger, I feel that like who the fuck are you, sorry about that, but I feel that and I have so much experience with this and say, when I feel that, treasure it.

要知道这是因为他们在说一些你试图屏蔽的东西。

Know that that's because they're saying something that you're trying to block out.