STI 13: 亿万富翁投资者瑞·达利欧的经济运行原理

您正在收听的是由Clarence Buds带来的《轻松掌握销售技巧》。跟随他分享其作为职业销售代表二十余年的经验，服务于财富500强企业，年复一年达成并超越销售目标。

You're listening to selling skills made easy with Clarence Buds. Follow along as he shares his twenty plus years as a professional sales representative working for Fortune 500 companies and meeting an exceeding plan year after year.

大家好，欢迎回到新一期的《自我对话投资者》。嘿，我迫不及待想和大家分享今天的内容。今天市场简直疯了。今天是4月24日星期二，道指暴跌了惊人的532点。

Hi folks and welcome back to another episode of the Self Talk Investor. Hey, I'm looking forward to sharing with you what I have for you today. The market is awfully crazy today. I don't know. Today is Tuesday, the twenty fourth, April, And, I'm looking at a whopping 532 points down on the Dow today.

哇。但除此之外，我最爱的股票之一3M公司也跌了18美元。这对我来说是个信号，赶紧入场买了几股。买完后我开始思考，作为自学投资者，我们必须真正理解周期规律。

Wow. But, and in addition to that, one of my favorite stocks, three m is down $18. That was, for me, a signal to go run-in there and buy a few shares. So I did that. And then I started thinking, you know, as a self taught investor, we have to really understand cycles.

比如我开始分析：3M公布了财报，卡特彼勒也公布了，过去一周左右道指成分股大批量发布财报，它们都达到或超出预期对吧？但市场却跌了500点，这是为什么？

For example, I started thinking, okay. Three m reported, Caterpillar reported, and and a and a whole plethora of the Dow reported in the last week or so, and they all met or exceeded expectations. Right? But yet the market is down 500 points. Why is that?

市场共识似乎是利率开始上升了。但问题在于：这意味着什么？这让我意识到，作为自学者，我们需要理解周期。必须清楚当前处于周期哪个阶段，今天的投资能否扛过接下来的周期波动？根据周期位置不同，我们可能处于上升期或下降期。

And it seems like consensus is that interest rates are starting to increase. But, the question then becomes, what does that mean? So it got me to thinking about, as a self taught investor, we need to understand cycles. We have to understand where we are in that cycle and are the investments we're making today, can they survive the upcoming cycles? Depending on where we are in the cycle, we could be in the up part of the cycle or we could be in the down part of the cycle.

如何判断所处周期位置？怎么知道？幸运的是，我们有位超级聪明的人瑞·达利欧提供了帮助，他制作了精彩的短视频《经济机器如何运转》，这对我们这些试图理解市场的新手来说简直是宝藏。

And how do we determine where we are on the cycle? How do you know? How do you know? And, fortunately, we've got some help from a really, really smart guy, Ray Dalio, put out a great little video entitled how the economy works. And it is a great video for us novice who are trying to understand the marketplace.

瑞·达利欧是桥水基金创始人兼CEO，这个全球最大对冲基金管理着1600亿美元资产。想预约和他谈话，你得有差不多5亿美元身家。当然私下他更平易近人，但要让其管理资金，他主要服务大型机构基金——比如你的401k养老金可能正通过桥水间接管理着。总之这位智者值得我们将其知识纳入学习体系，助力理解市场运作。

Ray Dalio is the founder, CEO of Bridgewater and Associates, a huge hedge fund, probably the largest in the world, $160,000,000,000 under management. In order to even get an appointment to talk to Ray Dalio, you have to have somewhere in new neighborhood of about $500,000,000 to even talk to this guy. I mean, he's obviously more approachable than that on a on a personal basis, but to do business and have him manage your money, you he's primarily managing large institutional funds. Like, your $4.00 1 k is probably being managed some way, somehow, or another, perhaps, maybe through by Bridgewater. So, anyway, he's really, really smart guy, and I thought it would be helpful to add his knowledge into our portfolio of information that we're consuming, trying to learn and understand the marketplace.

你可以在YouTube上找到他的频道。现在你可以收听音频了。我建议你听音频，这样你就能有个地方可以随时回放，开车或做其他事情时也能听。你可以慢慢消化这些信息，在自己的时间里吸收它们。但你也应该去看看视频，因为它配有一些非常棒的动画，与你即将听到的音频相得益彰。

And I'm gonna you can find his YouTube. Now you can listen to the audio. I would suggest listening to the audio so you can have a place to go back and play it as you're driving around and doing other stuff. You can, you know, kinda digest this information and try to absorb it in your own time. But you also wanna go and look at the video because it has some really nice animations to go with this, the audio that you're about to hear.

而且，你知道，也许一些视觉内容也能帮助你更好地理解。所以，无论如何，说到这里，我今年又要去巴塞罗那了，就在接下来的几周内。幸运的是，我还发现我赢得了公司的激励旅行。所以我会有两次旅行。我要从迈阿密出发，去洪都拉斯进行一次愉快的短途巡航，在那里进行一些潜水活动。

And, you know, perhaps some of the visuals may may help aid in your understanding as well. So, anyway, with that, you know, I'm headed out to Barcelona again this year in the next couple of weeks. And, fortunately, I've I found out that I also won my company's incentive trip. So I get two trips. I'm heading out to do a nice little cruise down to Honduras out of Miami, Do some scuba diving down in that area.

所以我对此也非常期待。我可能会离开一周或两周左右。但无论如何，我希望你喜欢雷·达里奥的《经济机器是如何运转的》。好吗？我们开始吧。

So I'm looking forward to that as well. So I may be out for, well, a week or two or so. But, anyway, I hope you enjoyed Ray Dalio's How the Economy Works. Okay? Here we go.

经济机器如何在三十分钟内运转。经济就像一台简单的机器一样运作。但很多人不理解它，或者对它的运作方式意见不一。这导致了许多不必要的经济痛苦。我有一种强烈的责任感，要分享我这个简单但实用的经济模型。

How the economic machine works in thirty minutes. The economy works like a simple machine. But many people don't understand it, or they don't agree on how it works. And this has led to a lot of needless economic suffering. I feel a deep sense of responsibility to share my simple but practical economic template.

虽然它非传统，但它帮助我预测并避开了全球金融危机。三十多年来，它一直对我很有效。让我们开始吧。尽管经济看起来复杂，但它以一种简单的机械方式运作。它由几个简单的部分和大量简单的交易组成，这些交易被重复了无数次。

Though it's unconventional, it has helped me to anticipate and to sidestep the global financial crisis. And it has worked well for me for over thirty years. Let's begin. Though the economy might seem complex, it works in a simple mechanical way. It's made up of a few simple parts and a lot of simple transactions that are repeated over and over again a zillion times.

这些交易首先是由人性驱动的。它们创造了驱动经济的三种主要力量。第一，生产力增长。第二，短期债务周期。第三，长期债务周期。

These transactions are above all else driven by human nature. And they create three main forces that drive the economy. Number one, productivity growth. Number two, the short term debt cycle. And number three, the long term debt cycle.

我们将看看这三种力量，以及如何将它们叠加在一起，创建一个好的模型来跟踪经济动向，并弄清楚现在发生了什么。让我们从经济中最简单的部分开始，交易。经济就是构成它的所有交易的总和，而交易是非常简单的事情。你一直在进行交易。每次你买东西时，你就在创造一个交易。

We'll look at these three forces and how laying them on top of each other creates a good template for tracking economic movements and figuring out what's happening now. Let's start with the simplest part of the economy, transactions. An economy is simply the sum of the transactions that make it up, and a transaction is a very simple thing. You make transactions all the time. Every time you buy something, you create a transaction.

每笔交易都包含买方用货币或信贷与卖方交换商品、服务或金融资产。信贷与货币同样具有购买力，因此将货币支出与信贷支出相加，你就能得知总支出额。总支出的规模驱动着经济运转。用支出总额除以销售总量，就得到了价格。道理就是如此简单。

Each transaction consists of a buyer exchanging money or credit with a seller for goods, services, or financial assets. Credit spends just like money, so adding together the money spent and the amount of credit spent, you can know the total spending. The total amount of spending drives the economy. If you divide the amount spent by the quantity sold, you get the price. And that's it.

这就是交易——经济机器的基本构件。经济中的所有周期和动力都源自交易。因此只要理解交易，我们就能理解整个经济体系。市场由所有针对同种商品进行交易的买卖双方共同构成。

That's a transaction. It's the building block of the economic machine. All cycles and all forces in an economy are driven by transactions. So, if we can understand transactions, we can understand the whole economy. A market consists of all the buyers and all the sellers making transactions for the same thing.

例如有小麦市场、汽车市场、股票市场以及无数其他商品市场。一个经济体就是所有市场全部交易活动的总和。只要掌握所有市场的交易总量数据，你就获得了理解经济所需的全部要素。道理就这么简单。个人、企业、银行和政府都通过我刚才描述的方式进行交易——用货币和信贷交换商品、服务和金融资产。最大的买卖方是政府，它包含两个重要组成部分：征收税款并安排支出的中央政府，以及不同于其他交易主体的中央银行，因为它掌控着经济中的货币与信贷总量。

For example, there is a wheat market, a car market, a stock market, and markets for millions of things. An economy consists of all of the transactions in all of its total quantity sold in all of the markets, you have everything you need to know to understand the economy. It's just that simple. People, businesses, banks and governments all engage in transactions the way I just described, exchanging money and credit for goods, services and financial assets. The biggest buyer and seller is the government which consists of two important parts, a central government that collects taxes and spends money, and a central bank, which is different from other buyers and sellers because it controls the amount of money and credit in the economy.

央行通过调节利率和增发货币来实现这种调控。正因如此，我们将会看到中央银行在信贷流动中扮演着关键角色。我希望你们特别关注信贷。信贷是经济中最重要却也最不被理解的组成部分。其重要性源于它是经济体系里规模最大且波动最剧烈的部分。

It does this by influencing interest rates and printing new money. For these reasons, as we'll see, the central bank is an important player in the flow of credit. I want you to pay attention to credit. Credit is the most important part of the economy and probably the least understood. It's the most important part because it's the biggest and most volatile part.

就像买卖双方在市场中完成交易，借贷双方也是如此。放贷者通常希望钱生钱，借款者往往想购买力所不及之物（如房屋汽车）或进行创业投资。信贷能同时满足借贷双方的需求。借款人承诺偿还本金及额外利息。当利率高企时，借贷行为减少因其成本昂贵。

Just like buyers and sellers go to the market to make transactions, so do lenders and borrowers. Lenders usually wanna make their money into more money, and borrowers usually wanna buy something they can't afford, like a house or a car, or they want to invest in something like starting a business. Credit can help both lenders and borrowers get what they want. Borrowers promise to repay the amount they borrow, called principal, plus an additional amount, called interest. When interest rates are high, there is less borrowing because it's expensive.

当利率走低时，借贷活动因成本下降而活跃。当借款人承诺还款且贷款人信守承诺时，信贷便凭空产生。任何两个人都能通过协议无中生有地创造信贷。这看似简单，但信贷的复杂性在于它有诸多别名——一旦信贷产生，它即刻转化为债务。

When interest rates are low borrowing increases because it's cheaper. When borrowers promise to repay and lenders believe them, credit is created. Any two people can agree to create credit out of thin air. That seems simple enough, but credit is tricky because it has different names. As soon as credit is created, it immediately turns into debt.

债务既是贷款人的资产，也是借款人的负债。未来当借款人连本带利清偿债务时，这笔资产与负债便同时消失，交易就此完结。那么信贷为何如此重要？因为当借款人获得信贷时，其消费能力随之提升。而请记住：消费正是经济的驱动力。

Debt is both an asset to the lender and a liability to the borrower. In the future, when the borrower repays the loan plus interest, the asset and the liability disappear and the transaction is settled. So, why is credit so important? Because when a borrower receives credit, he is able to increase his spending. And remember, spending drives the economy.

这是因为一个人的支出是另一个人的收入。想想看，你花的每一美元都是别人赚的，而你赚的每一美元都是别人花的。所以当你花得更多时，别人就赚得更多。

This is because one person's spending is another person's income. Think about it. Every dollar you spend, someone else earns. And every dollar you earn, someone else has spent. So when you spend more, someone else earns more.

当某人收入增加时，贷款机构会更愿意借钱给他，因为现在他更有信用价值。一个值得信赖的借款人具备两点：偿还能力和抵押物。相对于债务拥有大量收入使他具备偿还能力，若无法偿还，他还有可出售的贵重资产作为抵押。

When someone's income rises, it makes lenders more willing to lend him money, because now he's more worthy of credit. A credit worthy borrower has two things. The ability to repay and collateral. Having a lot of income in relation to his debt gives him the ability to repay. In the event that he can't repay, he has valuable assets to use as collateral that can be sold.

这让贷款机构放心借钱给他们。因此，收入增加促使借贷增加，进而推动支出增长。由于一个人的支出是另一个人的收入，这又导致更多借贷，如此循环。这种自我强化的模式推动经济增长，也是我们存在周期性的原因。在交易中，你必须付出才能获得。

This makes lenders feel comfortable lending them money. So, increased income allows increased borrowing, which allows increased spending. And, since one person's spending is another person's income, this leads to more increased borrowing, and so on. This self reinforcing pattern leads to economic growth and is why we have cycles. In a transaction, you have to give something in order to get something.

你能获得多少取决于你生产多少。随着时间的推移，我们不断学习，积累的知识提升了生活水平。我们称之为生产率增长。那些富有创造力和勤奋的人比自满懒惰的人更快提高生产力和生活水平——但这在短期内未必成立。

And how much you get depends on how much you produce. Over time, we learn and that accumulated knowledge raises our living standards. We call this productivity growth. Those who are inventive and hardworking raise their productivity and their living standards faster than those who are complacent and lazy. But that isn't necessarily true over the short run.

生产率在长期最为关键，而信贷在短期最为重要。因为生产率增长波动不大，所以不是经济波动的主要驱动力。债务才是，因为它让我们在获取时能消费超过自身产出。

Product Productivity matters most in the long run, but credit matters most in the short run. This is because productivity growth doesn't fluctuate much. So, it's not a big driver of economic swings. Debt is. Because it allows us to consume more than we produce when we acquire it.

而在偿还债务时，它迫使我们消费少于产出。债务波动呈现两大周期：一个约5-8年，另一个约75-100年。虽然多数人能感受到波动，但由于视角过于贴近（日复一日/周复一周），通常未能将其视为周期。

And it forces us to consume less than we produce when we have to pay it back. Debt swings occur in two big cycles. One takes about five to eight years, and the other takes about seventy five to a hundred years. While most people feel the swings, they typically don't see them as cycles because they see them too up close. Day by day, week by week.

本章我们将退后一步，观察这三种主要力量如何相互作用构成我们的经济体验。如前所述，趋势线周围的波动主要取决于信贷量而非创新或努力程度。假设一个没有信贷的经济体：在这里，增加支出的唯一途径是增加收入，这要求我提高生产率或延长工作时间。

In this chapter, we're going to step back and look at these three big forces and how they interact to make up our experiences. As mentioned, swings around the line are not due to how much innovation or hard work there is. They're primarily due to how much credit there is. Let's for a second imagine an economy without credit. In this economy, the only way I can increase my spending is to increase my income, which requires me to be more productive and do more work.

提高生产力是增长的唯一途径。因为我的支出就是他人的收入，每当我和其他人变得更高效时，经济就会增长。如果我们追踪交易过程，就能看到类似生产力增长线的发展轨迹。但由于借贷行为的存在，我们产生了周期。这与任何法律法规无关。

Increased productivity is the only way for growth. Since my spending is another person's income, the economy grows every time I or anyone else is more productive. If we follow the transactions and play this out, we see a progression like the productivity growth line. But because we borrow, we have cycles. This isn't due to any laws or regulations.

这是人性与信贷运作方式使然。借贷本质上就是将未来的消费提前。要购买无力承担的东西，你就必须超支。为此，你实际上是在向未来的自己借钱。这样一来，未来某个时期你就需要缩减开支以偿还债务。

It's due to human nature and the way that credit works. Think of borrowing as simply a way of pulling spending forward. In order to buy something you can't afford, you need to spend more than you make. To do this, you essentially need to borrow from your future self. In doing so, you create a time in the future that you need to spend less than you make in order to pay it back.

这很快就形成了周期。基本上，任何借贷行为都会创造周期。这对个人和经济体同样适用。理解信贷之所以重要，正是因为它会触发一系列机械性、可预测的未来事件。这使得信贷与货币截然不同。

It very quickly resembles a cycle. Basically, any time you borrow, you create a cycle. This is as true for an individual as it is for the economy. This is why understanding credit is so important because it sets into motion a mechanical, predictable series of events that will happen in the future. This makes credit different from money.

货币是用于结算交易的。当你用现金向酒保购买啤酒时，交易立即完成。但用信贷购买啤酒时，就像开了个酒吧赊账账户——你承诺在未来支付

Money is what you settle transactions with. When you buy a beer from a bartender with cash, the transaction is settled immediately. But when you buy a beer with credit, it's like starting a bar tab. You're saying you promise to pay in

这个

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款项。你和酒保共同创造了资产与负债。你凭空创造了信贷。只有当你日后结清酒账时，这笔资产与负债才会消失，债务清偿，交易完成。事实上，人们所谓的货币大部分都是信贷。

future. Together, you and the bartender create an asset and a liability. You just created credit out of thin air. It's not until you pay the bar tab later that the asset and the liability disappear, the debt goes away, and the transaction is settled. The reality is that most of what people call money is actually credit.

美国信贷总额约50万亿美元，而货币总量仅约3万亿美元。记住，在没有信贷的经济体中，增加支出的唯一途径是提高产量。但在有信贷的经济体中，你还可以通过借贷增加支出。因此，信贷经济能在短期内使支出增加、收入增速超过生产力提升，但长期来看并非如此。请注意，我并非在否定信贷的作用。

The total amount of credit in The United States is about $50,000,000,000,000, and the total amount of money is only about $3,000,000,000,000. Remember, in an economy without credit, the only way to increase your spending is to produce more. But in an economy with credit, you can also increase your spending by borrowing. As a result, an economy with credit has more spending and allows incomes to rise faster than productivity over the short run, but not over the long run. Now don't get me wrong.

信贷本身并不一定是引发经济周期的坏事。当它用于资助无法偿还的过度消费时才是坏事。然而，当它能有效配置资源并产生收入以偿还债务时，它就是有益的。例如，如果你借钱买一台大电视，它不会为你产生收入来偿还债务。但如果你借钱买一台拖拉机，这台拖拉机让你收获更多庄稼、赚更多钱，那么你就能偿还债务并提高生活水平。

Credit isn't necessarily something bad that just causes cycles. It's bad when it finances over consumption that can't paid back. However, it's good when it efficiently allocates resources and produces income so you can pay back the debt. For example, if you borrow money to buy a big TV, it doesn't generate income for you to pay the debt. But if you borrow money to, say, buy a tractor, and that tractor lets you harvest more crops and earn more money, then you can pay back your debt and improve your living standards.

在有信贷的经济体中，我们可以追踪交易，观察信贷如何创造增长。举个例子：假设你年收入10万美元且无负债，你的信用足以借到1万美元（比如用信用卡）。因此，尽管你只赚了10万，却能花11万。由于你的支出就是别人的收入，有人正赚取着11万美元。

In an economy with credit, we can follow the transactions and see how credit creates growth. Let me give you an example. Suppose you earn a $100,000 a year and have no debt. You are credit worthy enough to borrow $10,000, say on a credit So, you can spend a $110,000 even though you only earn a $100,000. Since your spending is another person's income, someone is earning a $110,000.

这个收入11万美元且无负债的人可以借1.1万美元，因此尽管他只赚了11万，却能花12.1万。他的支出又成为另一个人的收入——通过追踪这些交易，我们开始看到这个自我强化的循环如何运作。但记住：借贷制造周期。如果周期上行，最终必然下行。这就引出了短期债务周期。

The person earning a $110,000 with no debt can borrow $11,000. So, can spend a $121,000 even though he has only earned a $110,000. His spending is another person's income and by following the transactions, we can begin to see how this process works in a self reinforcing pattern. But remember, borrowing creates cycles And if the cycle goes up, it eventually needs to come down. This leads us into the short term debt cycle.

随着经济活动增加，我们首先看到短期债务周期的扩张阶段。支出持续增长，价格开始上涨。这是因为信贷凭空产生，推动了支出增长。当支出和收入增速超过商品生产增速时，价格上涨——我们称之为通货膨胀。

As economic activity increases, we see an expansion, the first phase of the short term debt cycle. Spending continues to increase and prices start to rise. This happens because the increase in spending is fueled by credit, which can be created instantly out of thin air. When the amount of spending and incomes grow faster than the production of goods, prices rise. When prices rise, we call this inflation.

央行不希望通胀过高，这会引发问题。看到价格上涨后，央行会提高利率。利率上升使借贷成本增加，现有债务的还款额也上升（想象信用卡月供增加）。由于人们借贷减少且还款压力增大，可支配收入相应减少。

The central bank doesn't want too much inflation because it causes problems. Seeing prices rise, it raises interest rates. With higher interest rates, fewer people can afford to borrow money, and the cost of existing debts rises. Think about this as the monthly payments on your credit card going up. Because people borrow less, and have higher debt repayments, they have less money left over to spend.

于是支出放缓。由于一个人的支出是另一个人的收入，收入随之下降，形成连锁反应。当人们减少支出时，价格下跌——我们称之为通货紧缩。经济活动萎缩，经济进入衰退。

So, slows. And since one person's spending is another person's income, incomes drop, and so on and so forth. When people spend less, prices go down. We call this deflation. Economic activity decreases and we have a recession.

如果衰退过于严重且通胀不再构成威胁，央行将降息以刺激复苏。低利率减轻债务负担，借贷和支出重新活跃，经济再次扩张。由此可见，经济如同精密机器运转。在短期债务周期中，支出仅受借贷双方意愿的制约。

If the recession becomes too severe and inflation is no longer a problem, the central bank will lower interest rates to cause everything to pick up again. With low interest rates, debt repayments are reduced and borrowing and spending pick up. And we see another expansion. As you can see, the economy works like a machine. In the short term debt cycle, spending is constrained only by the willingness of lenders and borrowers to provide and receive credit.

当信贷易于获取时，经济就会扩张；当信贷紧缩时，经济便陷入衰退。请注意，这个周期主要由中央银行控制。短期债务周期通常持续五到八年，并在数十年间循环往复。但要注意，每个周期的高点和低点都会比前一个周期有更高的增长，同时伴随着更多的债务。

When credit is easily available, there's an economic expansion. When credit isn't easily available, there's a recession. And note that this cycle is controlled primarily by the central bank. The short term debt cycle typically lasts five to eight years, and happens over and over again for decades. But notice that the bottom and top of each cycle finish with more growth than the previous cycle, and with more debt.

为什么？因为人们会推波助澜。他们倾向于借更多钱来消费，而非偿还债务。这是人性使然。正因如此，长期来看，债务的增长速度会超过收入，从而形成长期债务周期。

Why? Because people push it. They have an inclination to borrow and spend more instead of paying back debt. It's human nature. Because of this, over long periods of time, debts rise faster than incomes, creating the long term debt cycle.

尽管人们负债累累，贷款机构却更加自由地发放信贷。为什么？因为所有人都认为形势一片大好。人们只关注最近发生的事。那么最近发生了什么？

Despite people becoming more indebted, lenders even more freely extend credit. Why? Because everyone thinks things are going great. People are just focused on what's been happening lately. And what's been happening lately?

收入持续增长，资产价值不断攀升，股市欣欣向荣。这是一片繁荣景象。用借来的钱购买商品、服务和金融资产变得有利可图。

Incomes have been rising. Asset values are going up. The stock market roars. It's a boom. It pays to buy goods, services, and financial assets with borrowed money.

当人们大规模这样做时，我们称之为泡沫。因此，尽管债务不断累积，但收入几乎以同等速度增长来抵消债务。我们将债务与收入之比称为债务负担。只要收入持续增长，债务负担就保持在可控范围内。与此同时，资产价值飙升。

When people do a lot of that, we call it a bubble. So, even though debts have been growing, incomes have been growing nearly as fast to offset them. Let's call the ratio of debt to income the debt burden. So long as incomes continue to rise, the debt burden stays manageable. At the same time, asset values soar.

人们借入巨额资金购买资产作为投资，导致资产价格进一步上涨。人们感到财富增长。因此，即使积累了巨额债务，收入上升和资产增值仍能让借款人在很长时间内保持良好信用。但显然这种情况无法永远持续。事实也正是如此。

People borrow huge amounts of money to buy assets as investments, causing their prices to rise even higher. People feel wealthy. So, even with the accumulation of lots of debt, rising incomes and asset values help borrowers remain credit worthy for a long time. But this obviously cannot continue forever. And it doesn't.

几十年来，债务负担缓慢增加，导致偿债金额越来越大。在某个时间点，偿债支出的增速开始超过收入增长，迫使人们削减开支。由于一个人的支出是另一个人的收入，收入随之下降，这使人们的信用度降低，借贷减少。偿债支出持续上升，导致支出进一步萎缩，于是周期开始逆转。

Over decades, debt burdens slowly increase creating larger and larger debt repayments. At some point, debt repayments start growing faster than incomes, forcing people to cut back on their spending. And since one person's spending is another person's income, incomes begin to go down, which makes people less credit worthy, causing borrowing to go down. Debt repayments continue to rise, which makes spending drop even further. And the cycle reverses itself.

这是长期债务的顶峰。债务负担已经变得过于沉重。对于美国、欧洲和世界大部分地区而言，这一情况发生在2008年2月。其发生原因与日本1989年及美国1929年遭遇的情形相同。此刻，经济开始进入去杠杆化阶段。

This is the long term debt peak. Debt burdens have simply become too big. For The United States, Europe, and much of the rest of the world, this happened in 02/2008. It happened for the same reason it happened in Japan in 1989 and in The United States back in 1929. Now the economy begins deleveraging.

在去杠杆化过程中，人们削减支出，收入下降，信贷消失，资产价格下跌，银行承压，股市崩盘，社会紧张加剧，整个体系开始反向自我强化。随着收入减少而债务偿还额上升，借款人陷入困境。由于信用丧失，信贷枯竭，借款人无法再借到足够资金偿还债务。为填补缺口，借款人被迫抛售资产。资产抛售潮与支出下降同时冲击市场。

In a deleveraging, people cut spending, incomes fall, credit disappears, asset prices drop, banks get squeezed, the stock market crashes, social tensions rise, and the whole thing starts to feed on itself the other way. As incomes fall and debt repayments rise, borrowers get squeezed. No longer credit worthy, credit dries up, and borrowers can no longer borrow enough money to make their debt repayment. Scrambling to fill this hole, borrowers are forced to sell assets. The rush to sell assets floods the market at the same time as spending falls.

此时股市崩盘，房地产市场暴跌，银行陷入危机。随着资产价格下跌，借款人提供的抵押品价值缩水，这进一步削弱其信用度。民众感到财富缩水，信贷迅速蒸发。

This is when the stock market collapses, the real estate market tanks, and banks get into trouble. As asset prices drop, the value of the collateral borrowers can put up drops. This makes borrowers even less credit worthy. People feel poor. Credit rapidly disappears.

支出减少、收入减少、财富缩水、信贷萎缩、借贷下降，如此循环往复。这是个恶性循环。看似与衰退相似，但关键区别在于利率已无法通过下调来挽救局面。衰退时期，降息能刺激借贷；而在去杠杆化中，利率本就处于低位且很快触达0%，降息手段完全失效。

Less spending, less income, less wealth, less credit, less borrowing, and so on. It's a vicious cycle. This appears similar to a recession, but the difference here is that interest rates can't be lowered to save the day. In a recession, lowering interest rates works to stimulate borrowing. However, in a deleveraging, lowering interest rates doesn't work because interest rates are already low, and soon hit 0%.

因此刺激政策终结。美国利率在1930年代去杠杆化期间及2008年2月均曾触及0%。衰退与去杠杆化的本质区别在于：后者中借款人的债务负担已庞大到无法通过降息缓解。债权人意识到债务规模远超偿还能力，借款人丧失偿债能力，抵押品价值也大幅贬值。

So, the stimulation ends. Interest rates in The United States hit 0% during the deleveraging of the nineteen thirties, and again in 02/2008. The difference between a recession and a deleveraging is that in a deleveraging, borrowers' debt burdens have simply gotten too big and can't be relieved by lowering interest rates. Lenders realize that debts have become too large to ever be fully paid back. Borrowers have lost their ability to repay and their collateral has lost value.

他们被债务压得喘不过气，甚至不再新增借贷。债权人停止放贷，借款人停止借贷。此时整个经济体的信用状况就像破产的个人。

They feel crippled by the debt. They don't even want more. Lenders stop lending. Borrowers stop borrowing. Think of the economy as being not credit worthy, just like an individual.

那么如何应对去杠杆化？核心问题是债务负担过高且必须降低。有四种解决途径：其一，个人、企业和政府削减支出；其二，通过违约和债务重组减少债务。

So what do you do about a deleveraging? The problem is debt burdens are too high and they must come down. There are four ways this can happen. One, people, businesses, and governments cut their spending. Two, debts are reduced through defaults and restructurings.

重组。第三，财富从富者重新分配给贫者。最后，第四，中央银行印制新货币。这四种方式在现代历史上的每一次去杠杆化中都发生过。通常，首先削减的是支出。

Restructurings. Three, wealth is redistributed from the haves to the have nots. And finally, four, the central bank prints new money. These four ways have happened in every deleveraging in modern history. Usually, spending is cut first.

正如我们刚才所见，个人、企业乃至政府都会勒紧裤腰带削减开支，以便偿还债务。这通常被称为紧缩政策。当借款人停止新增债务并开始偿还旧债时，你可能会预期债务负担会减轻。但事实恰恰相反。因为支出减少，而一个人的支出是另一个人的收入，这导致收入下降。

As we just saw, people, businesses, and even governments tighten their belts and cut their spending so that they can pay down their debt. This is often referred to as austerity. When borrowers stop taking on new debts, and start paying down old debts, you might expect the debt burden to decrease. But the opposite happens. Because spending is cut, and one man's spending is another man's income, it cause incomes to fall.

收入下降的速度快于债务偿还的速度，债务负担实际上反而加重。正如我们所看到的，这种支出削减具有通缩性且令人痛苦。企业被迫削减成本，这意味着就业机会减少和失业率上升。这导致了下一步：必须减少债务。

They fall faster than debts are repaid, and the debt burden actually gets worse. As we've seen, this cut in spending is deflationary and painful. Businesses are forced to cut costs, which means less jobs and higher unemployment. This leads to the next step. Debts must be reduced.

许多借款人发现自己无力偿还贷款，而借款人的债务是贷款人的资产。当借款人无法偿还银行时，人们会担心银行无法偿还他们的存款，于是争先恐后地从银行提取资金。银行陷入困境，个人、企业和银行纷纷违约。这种严重的经济收缩就是萧条。萧条的一个重要表现是，人们发现他们原以为拥有的财富大部分并不真实存在。

Many borrowers find themselves unable to repay their loans, and a borrower's debts are a lender's assets. When a borrower doesn't repay the bank, people get nervous that the bank won't be able to repay them, so they rush to withdraw their money from the bank. Banks get squeezed and people, businesses, and banks default on their debts. This severe economic contraction is a depression. A big part of a depression is people discovering much of what they thought was their wealth isn't really there.

让我们回到酒吧的例子。当你买了一杯啤酒并记在账上时，你承诺会偿还酒保。你的承诺成为了酒保的资产。但如果你违背承诺，不偿还欠款，实质上就是拖欠酒吧账单，那么他所持有的资产实际上就毫无价值了。它基本上已经消失了。

Let's go back to the bar. When you bought a beer and put it on a bar tab, you promised to repay the bartender. Your promise became an asset of the bartender. But, if you break your promise, if you don't pay him back and essentially default on your bartab, then the asset he has isn't really worth anything. It has basically disappeared.

许多贷款人不希望自己的资产消失，因此同意债务重组。债务重组意味着贷款人收回的金额减少，或偿还期限延长，或利率低于最初约定的水平。无论如何，合同以某种方式被打破以减少债务。贷款人宁愿得到部分偿还，也不愿一无所有。尽管债务消失了，但债务重组导致收入和资产价值以更快的速度消失。

Many lenders don't want their assets to disappear and agree to debt restructuring. Debt restructuring means lenders get paid back less, or get paid back over a longer time frame, or at a lower interest rate than was first agreed. Somehow, a contract is broken in a way that reduces debt. Lenders would rather have a little of something than all of nothing. Even though debt disappears, debt restructuring causes income and asset values to disappear faster.

因此，债务负担继续恶化。与削减支出一样，债务减少也是痛苦且具有通缩性的。所有这些都会影响中央政府，因为收入降低和就业减少意味着政府税收减少。与此同时，由于失业率上升，政府需要增加支出。许多失业者储蓄不足，需要政府的财政支持。

So, the debt burden continues to get worse. Like cutting spending, debt reduction is also painful and deflationary. All of this impacts the central government because lower incomes and less employment means the government collects fewer taxes. At the same time, needs to increase its spending because unemployment has risen. Many of the unemployed have inadequate savings and need financial support from the government.

此外，政府会制定刺激计划并增加支出以弥补经济下滑。在去杠杆化过程中，政府预算赤字会急剧膨胀，因为其支出远超税收收入。这就是新闻中常提到的预算赤字现象。为填补赤字，政府要么增税要么举债。但在收入下降、失业率攀升的情况下，资金从何而来？

Additionally, governments create stimulus plans and increase their spending to make up for the decrease in the economy. Governments' budget deficits explode in a deleveraging because they spend more than they earn in taxes. This is what's happening when you hear about the budget deficit on the news. To fund their deficits, governments need to either raise taxes or borrow money. But with incomes falling and so many unemployed, who is the money gonna come from?

富人阶层。由于政府需要更多资金，而财富高度集中在少数人手中，政府会对富人增税，从而推动财富从有产者向无产者重新分配。饱受煎熬的无产者开始怨恨富裕阶层；而受到经济疲软、资产贬值和税负加重挤压的富人也开始敌视无产者。若萧条持续，社会动荡可能爆发。

The rich. Since governments need more money, and since wealth is heavily concentrated in the hands of a small percentage of the people, governments raise taxes on the wealthy, which facilitates a redistribution of wealth in the economy from the haves to the have nots. The have nots who are suffering begin to resent the wealth haves. The wealthy haves being squeezed by the weak economy, falling asset prices, and higher taxes begin to resent the have nots. If the depression continues, social disorder can break out.

不仅国内矛盾激化，债务国与债权国之间的国际关系也会紧张。这种局势可能引发极端政治变革——1930年代正是如此，希特勒上台、欧洲战争与美国大萧条相继发生。要求终结萧条的压力与日俱增。记住，人们以为的'钱'其实大部分是信贷。

Not only do tensions rise within countries, they can rise between countries, especially debtor and creditor countries. This situation can lead to political change that can sometimes be extreme. In the 1930s, this led to Hitler coming to power, war in Europe and depression in The United States. Pressure to do something to end the depression increases. Remember, most of what people thought was money was actually credit.

因此当信贷消失时，人们就陷入钱荒。在极度渴求货币时，还记得谁能印钞吗？中央银行可以。在利率已降至接近零后，它被迫开启印钞机。

So when credit disappears, people don't have enough money. People are desperate for money. And you remember who can print money? The central bank can. Having already lowered its interest rates to nearly zero, it's forced to print money.

与削减开支、债务减免和财富再分配不同，印钞具有通胀性和刺激性。央行必然凭空创造新货币，用以购买金融资产和政府债券。美国大萧条时期如此，2008年美联储印制超2万亿美元时亦如此。全球其他有能力央行也大量印钞。通过用这些钱购买金融资产，推高资产价格从而提升人们的信用资质。

Unlike cutting spending, debt reduction, and wealth redistribution, printing money is inflationary and stimulative. Inevitably, the central bank prints new money out of thin air, and uses it to buy financial assets and government bonds. It happened in The United States during the Great Depression, and again in 2008 when the United States Central Bank, the Federal Reserve, printed over $2,000,000,000,000. Other central banks around the world that could printed a lot of money too. By buying financial assets with this money, it helps drive up asset prices which makes people more credit worthy.

但这仅惠及金融资产持有者。须知央行虽能印钞，却只能购买金融资产；而中央政府虽能购买商品服务并向民众发放资金，却无权印钞。因此经济刺激需要两者协作：央行购买国债实质是向政府放贷，使其能维持赤字并通过刺激计划与失业救济增加商品服务支出。

However, this only helps those who own financial assets. You see, the central bank can print money, but it can only buy financial assets. The central government, on the other hand, can buy goods and services and put money in the hands of the people, but it can't print money. So, in order to stimulate the economy, the two must cooperate. By buying government bonds, the central bank essentially lends money to the government, allowing it to run a deficit and increase spending on goods and services through its stimulus programs and unemployment benefits.

这既增加民众收入也推高政府债务，但将降低经济体的总债务负担。此时决策者面临重大考验：必须平衡四种去债务杠杆的途径——通缩性措施与通胀性措施需相互制衡以维持稳定。

This increases people's income as well as the government's debt. However, it will lower the economy's total debt burden. This is a very risky time. Policymakers need to balance the four ways that debt burdens come down. The deflationary ways need to balance with the inflationary ways in order to maintain stability.

如果平衡得当，去杠杆化过程可以非常美妙。要知道，去杠杆化可能很糟糕，也可能很美好。怎样才能实现美好的去杠杆化？尽管去杠杆化是个艰难的过程，但以最佳方式应对困境本身就是一种美。这远比杠杆化阶段那些债务驱动、失衡过度的繁荣景象要美好得多。

If balanced correctly, there can be a beautiful deleveraging. You see, a deleveraging could be ugly or it can be beautiful. How can a deleveraging be beautiful? Even though a deleveraging is a difficult situation, handling a difficult situation in the best possible way is beautiful. A lot more beautiful than the debt fueled unbalanced excesses of the leveraging phase.

在理想状态下，债务与收入比率下降，实际经济增长为正，通胀不成问题。这需要通过精准平衡来实现。这种平衡需要削减支出、减少债务、财富再分配和增发货币的合理组合，从而维持经济社会稳定。有人担心印钞会引发通胀，但只要其抵消了信贷萎缩就不会。

In a beautiful deleveraging, debts decline relative to income, real economic growth is positive, and inflation isn't a problem. It is achieved by having the right balance. The right balance require a certain mix of cutting spending, reducing debt, transferring wealth, and printing money, so that economic and social stability can be maintained. People ask if printing money will raise inflation. It won't if offsets falling credit.

记住，关键在于支出。用货币支付的一美元支出，与用信贷支付的一美元支出，对价格的影响是相同的。央行通过印钞可以弥补信贷消失造成的货币缺口。要实现经济逆转，央行不仅要刺激收入增长，更要使收入增速超过累积债务的利率。那么这意味着什么？

Remember, spending is what matters. A dollar of spending paid for with money has the same effect on price as a dollar of spending paid for with credit. By printing money, the central bank can make up for the disappearance of credit with an increase in the amount of money. In order to turn things around, the central bank needs to not only pump up income growth, but get the rate of income growth higher than the rate of interest on the accumulated debt. So, what do I mean by that?

本质上，收入增速需快于债务增速。假设某国去杠杆化时债务收入比为100%，即债务总额等于全年国民收入。再考虑债务利率——假设是2%。

Basically, income needs to grow faster than debt grows. For example, let's assume that a country going through a deleveraging has a debt to income ratio of a 100%. That means that the amount of debt it has is the same as the amount of income the entire country makes in a year. Now think about the interest rate on that debt. Let's say it's 2%.

若债务因2%利率而增长，收入增速仅1%，债务负担就永远无法减轻。必须印钞使收入增速超过利率。但印钞极易被滥用，因操作简单且人们偏爱此法。关键是避免重蹈1920年代德国过度印钞的覆辙。政策制定者若把握平衡，去杠杆化就不会那么剧烈。

If debt is growing at 2% because of that interest rate, and income is only growing at around 1%, you will never reduce the debt burden. You need to print enough money to get the rate of income growth above the rate of interest. However, printing money could easily be abused because it's so easy to do, and people prefer it to the alternatives. The key is to avoid printing too much money, and causing way Germany did during its deleveraging in the nineteen twenties. If policymakers achieve the right balance, a deleveraging isn't so dramatic.

虽然增长缓慢，但债务负担减轻，这就是理想去杠杆化。当收入回升，借款人信用改善；信用改善促使贷款重启。债务负担终将减轻，人们重获借款能力后消费增加。

Growth is slow, but debt burdens go down. That's a beautiful deleveraging. When incomes begin to rise, borrowers begin to appear more creditworthy. And when borrowers appear more creditworthy, lenders begin to lend money again. Debt burdens finally begin to fall, able to borrow money, people can spend more.

最终经济重启增长，进入长期债务周期的再通胀阶段。处理不当的去杠杆化固然可怕，但若应对得当，终将解决问题。债务负担减轻和经济活动恢复正常通常需要十年或更久，故称'失去的十年'。当然，现实经济比这个简化模型要复杂些许。

Eventually, the economy begins to grow again, leading to the reflation phase of the long term debt cycle. Though the deleveraging process can be horrible if handled badly, if handled well, it will eventually fix the problem. It takes roughly a decade or more for debt burdens to fall economic activity to get back to normal. Hence, the term lost decade. In closing, of course, the economy is a little bit more complicated than this template suggests.

然而，将短期债务周期叠加在长期债务周期之上，再将两者叠加在生产率增长线上，就得到了一个相当不错的模板，用以观察我们过去的位置、现在的处境以及未来可能的走向。因此，总结来说，我希望你们记住三条经验法则：第一，不要让债务增长速度超过收入，因为债务负担最终会压垮你；第二，不要让收入增长超过生产率，否则你终将失去竞争力；第三，尽一切可能提升生产率，因为长远来看，这才是最重要的。

However, laying the short term debt cycle on top of the long term debt cycle, and then laying both of them on top of the productivity growth line, gives a reasonably good template for seeing where we've been, where we are now, and where we're probably headed. So, in summary, there are three rules of thumb that I'd like you to take away from this. First, don't have debt rise faster than income because your debt burdens will eventually crush you. Second, don't have income rise faster than productivity because you'll eventually become uncompetitive. And third, do all that you can to raise your productivity because in the long run, that's what matters most.

这对你们是简单的建议，对政策制定者亦是如此。你可能会惊讶，但大多数人，包括多数政策制定者，对此关注不足。这个模板对我很有效，希望它也能帮到你。谢谢。

This is simple advice for you and it's simple advice for policymakers. You might be surprised, but most people, including most policymakers don't pay enough attention to this. This template has worked for me and I hope it will work for you. Thank you.

以上就是雷·达里奥在economicprinciples.org上关于经济如何运行的演讲内容。这是一个非常、非常棒的工具。希望你们能消化这些信息，并像许多人一样持续从中学习。那么，就这样吧。

So there you have it. Ray Dalio's economicprinciples.org presentation on how the economy works. It's a great, great tool. Hopefully, you can digest that information and continue to learn from it as many people do. So with that, hey.

希望大家一切顺利。我要先告辞了，准备启程去巴塞罗那游轮之旅。等我回来时，再与各位相见。保重，朋友们。

I hope you guys have a good one. I'm gonna go ahead and check out right here and, get ready for the cruise and head to Barcelona. And when I return, hey, I'll see you then. Take care, guys.

轻松掌握销售技巧。助你成为顶尖销售高手。

Selling skills made easy. Here to help you sell like the best.