如何早期识别出1%的顶尖初创企业

欢迎来到Lenny's Reads，我将为您带来我关于产品构建、推动增长和加速职业发展的新闻简报的音频版本。

Welcome to Lenny's Reads, where I bring you audio versions of my newsletter about building product, driving growth, and accelerating your career.

这篇文章由Terence Rohan撰写，将由我来讲述。

This post was written by Terence Rohan and will be narrated by me.

关于投资者如何挑选初创企业的文章和播客数不胜数，但Lenny和我对一类低调的员工群体产生了好奇——他们在识别即将爆发的时代性公司方面，似乎不亚于甚至胜过那些最著名的风投家。

There are endless posts and podcasts about how investors pick startups, but Lenny and I were curious about a quiet class of employees who seem just as good as, if not better than, the most famous VCs at spotting generational companies before they blow up.

这些稀有人才是如何在世界大多数人尚未察觉时，就不断加入这些改变世界的公司呢？

How do these rare folks keep joining world changing companies before most of the world even notices them?

为了寻找答案，我们采访了五位人士，包括Bob McGrew、Christina Cordova、Sean Rose、Soleo和Rasmus Anderson。他们的履历中包含了硅谷最杰出的公司：Palantir、OpenAI、Facebook、Stripe、Linear、Figma、Notion、Slack、Box、Spotify和Dropbox。

To find out, we interviewed five people including Bob McGrew, Christina Cordova, Sean Rose, Soleo, and Rasmus Anderson whose resumes include some of Silicon Valley's most remarkable companies, including Palantir, OpenAI, Facebook, Stripe, Linear, Figma, Notion, Slack, Box, Spotify, and Dropbox.

每个人都至少早期加入过其中两家公司，这是非凡的成就，尤其是他们都是作为全职员工而非分散投资的投资人参与的。

Each joined at least two of these companies early, an extraordinary feat, especially since they committed as full time employees, not diversified investors.

他们的命中率令人惊叹。

Their hit rate is phenomenal.

让我们开始吧。

Let's get into it.

我们很好奇。

We were curious.

他们看到了什么？

What did they see?

他们是如何做出选择的？

How did they choose?

从他们的经历中能学到什么经验吗？

Are there lessons to take from their experiences?

在他们的故事中，我们发现了三个最重要的关键因素。

Across their stories, we saw three distinct factors that mattered most.

虽然最初是为求职者写的，但这些见解更广泛适用于创始人、投资者或任何试图早期识别伟大事物的人。

Though originally written for job seekers, these insights apply much more broadly for founders, investors, or anyone trying to recognize greatness early.

以下是你需要关注的要点。

Here's what to look for.

第一个特质是近乎荒谬的雄心壮志。

The first trait is ambition bordering on ludicrous.

这对我们来说是最新颖的收获。

This was the most novel takeaway for us.

根据我们的受访者，未来成为一代伟大公司最明显的标志之一就是雄心壮志。

One of the clearest markers of a future generational company, according to our interviewees, is ambition.

这一点被反复提及。

It came up again and again.

鲍勃指出，Palantir和OpenAI在初创时都被认为荒谬可笑。

Bob pointed out that both Palantir and OpenAI were considered ludicrous when the companies were first started.

他说特别是加入Palantir看似风险极高，但实际上毫无风险。

He said joining Palantir in particular seemed like a very risky proposition, but actually wasn't risky at all.

就算公司失败，最坏也就是浪费一年时间，回去继续读博士。

If the company failed, at worst, I'd wasted a year of my life and would have to go back to my PhD.

但如果公司成功，这将改变我的一生。

But if the company succeeded, it would be life changing.

索莱奥也认同这点，他说：早期Facebook团队的凶猛野心让我感到震惊。

Soleo agreed, and he said, I was surprised by the ferocity and ambition of the early Facebook team.

他们都聪明得不像该投身社交网络的人，但对互联网的终极走向和Facebook可能如何彻底重塑它，却怀有崇高的构想。

They all seemed too smart to be working on social networking, but had a lofty idea for where the Internet was ultimately headed and how Facebook might completely reshape it.

肖恩补充道，如果一家公司的核心理念彰显非凡抱负，那很可能值得关注。

Sean added, if a company's thesis is marked by extraordinary ambition, it's probably worth paying attention.

鲍勃指出，关键信号始终是目标的雄心壮志。

The key tell, Bob said, was always the ambition of the goal.

拉斯穆斯解释道，这里的逻辑很简单。

Rasmus explained, the logic here is simple.

如果所有人都说'这显然是个绝妙主意'，而你第一天就面临直接竞争对手，那你肯定已经迟到了。

If everyone says, yes, that's clearly a great idea, and you have direct competitors on day one, you are definitely late to the game.

即使你表现出色并远超预期，在这个世界上产生重大影响的机会也相当渺茫。

Even if you excel and go above and beyond expectations, the chance of making a meaningful difference in this world is smallish.

然而，如果有人已穿越探索之海，跋涉研究沼泽，仍执着于某个想法，那他们或许有微小概率领先于我们所有人，看到了我们尚未察觉的东西。

However, if someone has sailed across the sea of exploration, waded through the bog of research, and is still going on about an idea, there's a small chance that they are ahead of the rest of us and see something I've yet to see.

那么，创始人抱负足够宏大的标志有哪些呢？

So what are the signs that the founder's ambition is big enough?

首先是创始人听起来有点疯狂。

First is that the founder sounds a bit crazy.

肖恩分享道，对于Meter来说，从零开始，跨多个平台自制硬件，这确实表明这家公司要么在豪赌，要么就是疯了。

Sean shared, for Meter, to start from scratch, to make your own hardware across many platforms, it really indicated that this company is taking a huge swing or they're just crazy.

同样地，2013年我在去开发者大会的公交车上遇到Figma的CEO兼联合创始人迪伦·菲尔德时，他刚开始创办Figma。

Along those same lines, when I met Dylan Field, CEO and cofounder of Figma, on a bus to a developer conference in 2013, he was just starting Figma.

我记得和他聊过他正在构建的东西，他想实现的目标，以及这些想法在浏览器中实现看起来有多么疯狂。

I remember talking to him about what he was building, what he wanted to do with it, and how it seemed completely insane to do in the browser.

很明显迪伦无论如何都不会放弃，而我们现在知道结果如何了。

It was clear Dylan was not going to stop no matter what, and we know how that has gone.

第二个迹象是人们嘲笑他们。

The second sign is that people laugh at them.

拉斯穆斯回忆道，当时瑞典一个无名小团队Spotify说，我们要建立一个包含世界上所有音乐的目录，让每个人都能访问。

Rasmus recalled Spotify, a little group of nobodies in Sweden, said, let's build a catalog of all the music in the world and give everyone access.

人们当时都嘲笑我们。

People laughed at us.

我是说字面意思，当时唱片公司高管们嘲笑CEO兼联合创始人Daniel Ek，觉得他居然请求他们给我们一个机会。

I mean that literally, as in record label officials laughing at Daniel Ek, CEO and cofounder, asking them to give us a chance.

关键在于，商界人士认为这是个糟糕又疯狂的主意，而朋友们却觉得这听起来像是完美的未来。

The key here was that business people thought it was a bad, bonkers idea, while friends thought it sounded like a perfect future.

第三个迹象是之前从未有人尝试过这个想法。

The third sign is that no one has ever attempted this idea before.

Rasmus补充道，虽然现在听起来可能有点老套，但如果一家公司试图改变的事情是全世界都没人尝试过的，那可能就有些特别之处，尤其是当这个目标非常宏大的时候。

Rasmus added, it may be a bit of a cliche at this point, but if no one else is trying to do what a company is trying to change in this world, then there might be something interesting going on, especially if it's ambitious.

最后用Bob的话来总结，Palantir的联合创始人兼CEO Alex Karp曾说过：我们希望Palantir成为世界上最重要的公司，而不是最有价值的公司。

To close, in the words of Bob, at one point at Palantir, cofounder and CEO Alex Karp said, we want Palantir to be the most important company in the world, not the most valuable one.

但如果它真的重要，那它最终也会变得很有价值。

But if it's really important, it's going to be valuable too.

具有划时代意义的公司的第二个特质是：一切都与创始人有关。

The second trait of generational companies is that it's all about the founder.

基于前文的观点，每位受访者都强调了同一个重点。

Building on the previous insight, every interviewee emphasized the same point.

创始人是最重要的。

The founders matter above all else.

不是众多变量中的一个。

Not as one variable among many.

这才是关键变量。

This was the variable.

早期参与Stripe、Notion和Linear的克里斯蒂娜直言不讳地说。

Christina, who was early Stripe, Notion, and Linear, said it outright.

创始人和早期团队，对我来说没有比这更重要的了。

The founders and early team, nothing matters more than this to me.

我会努力工作，我想要成功。

I'm going to work hard, and I want to win.

但我想和那些我也希望看到他们成功的人一起实现目标。

But I want to do it with people whom I want to see win too.

当我加入Stripe时，更多是因为我觉得那里的人很特别。

When I joined Stripe, I joined more because I thought the people were special.

后来我对公司本身有了更多信心。

I had more conviction about the company itself later.

早期参与Slack、Box和Meter的肖恩也表达了相同观点。

Sean, who was early Slack box and meter, echoed her.

创始人的品质与真实性对我来说始终是最重要的变量。

Quality and authenticity of founders have always been the most important variables to me.

早期参与Spotify、Figma和Dropbox的拉斯穆斯将其提炼得更为精辟。

Rasmus, who was early Spotify, Figma, and Dropbox, distilled it even further.

人与使命。

People and mission.

是谁？为何而做？

Who and why?

而非具体方法。

Not as much how.

早期参与Palantir和OpenAI的鲍勃补充道：共同模式是极其宏大的目标与可信团队的结合。

Bob, who was early Palantir and OpenAI, added, the common pattern was an incredibly ambitious goal combined with a credible team.

又是这种雄心壮志。

There's that ambition again.

加入一家有优秀创始人的公司说起来容易做起来难。

Joining a company with great founders is easy to say and hard to do.

究竟什么造就了一位伟大的创始人？

What exactly makes a founder great?

许多人会提到智慧，我们也有专门章节强调雄心的重要性。

Many people call out intelligence, and we have a whole section highlighting the importance of ambition.

但我们的受访者提到了一些不太明显的迹象。

But our interviewees mentioned some less obvious signs.

首先是适应能力。

The first is the ability to adapt.

鲍勃指出Palantir和OpenAI最初都采用了行不通的策略，或许当时世人的嘲笑是对的，但两家公司都通过不断迭代找到了可行方案。

Bob pointed out both Palantir and OpenAI started with an unworkable initial strategy that perhaps the world was correct to mock, but both iterated over time to something that worked.

快速学习的能力比拥有完美策略更重要。

It's more important to be able to learn quickly than to have a good strategy.

克里斯蒂娜也有同感。

Christina shared the same sentiment.

创办公司非常困难，你需要从不同阶段不断学习并实现规模扩张。

It's so difficult to build a company, and there's so much you need to learn going from one stage to the next and scaling.

真正热爱学习、将公司建设视为学习过程的创始人，往往更有可能打造出持久且独特的公司。

Founders who truly love to learn and look at company building as a learning experience are quite predictive of whether founders will build durable, special companies.

我记得早期在Stripe时说过，联合创始人Patrick和John Collison不仅想打造一款伟大的产品。

I remember saying early on at Stripe that co founders Patrick and John Collison didn't just want to build a great product.

他们想打造一家伟大的公司。

They wanted to build a great company.

回想起来，我记得他们的公寓里书籍堆到了天花板。

And in looking back, I remember their apartment had books piled to the ceiling.

他们对各种不同话题都知之甚详，而且总是虚心向他人求教。

They knew so much about so many different topics, and they always sought advice from others.

他们具备学习型思维，而且我认为至今未变。

They had a learning mindset, and I think they still do.

肖恩将这种现象描述为变化速率。

Sean described this as rate of change.

索莱奥称之为时钟速度，并补充道：'我观察所有这些公司的共同点是它们的运营速度之快，以及早期员工能力之强。'

Soleo called it clock speed, adding, the common thread I've observed with all of these companies is how fast they operated and how extraordinarily capable their early employees were.

他们是实时构建想法，还是需要数月时间才能看到愿景在软件中实现？

Are they building their ideas in real time, or does it take months to see their visions crystallize in software?

第二个不太明显的迹象是凶猛性。

The second less obvious sign is ferocity.

拉斯穆斯寻找的是公司成员身上显而易见的热情。

Rasmus looked for clear passion from the people who are the company.

充满激情且有趣的人一直是我职业生涯的核心要素。

Passionate and interesting people have been a core aspect of my professional life.

克里斯蒂娜说她喜欢Notion创始人兼CEO伊万·赵的专注度，并总是被这种专注与智慧的结合所吸引。

Christina said she loved founder and CEO of Notion, Ivan Zhao's intensity, and has always been drawn to intensity plus intelligence.

索莱奥对早期Facebook团队的凶猛野心感到惊讶。

Soleo was surprised by the ferocity and ambition of the early Facebook team.

第三个迹象是创始人市场契合度。

The third sign is founder market fit.

肖恩总是自问：这些人看起来像是在做他们命中注定要做的事吗？

Sean always asked himself, do these people seem like they're doing what they're meant to be doing?

而且是否毫无疑问，没有人能比他们做得更好？

And is there no question that no one else can do it as well as them?

鲍勃对Palantir的前景持乐观态度，因为它的创立是为了将PayPal反欺诈分析软件的理念应用于情报领域。

Bob was optimistic about Palantir's chances because it was founded to take the ideas behind the analysis software that solved fraud at PayPal and apply them to the intelligence community.

最后用克里斯蒂娜的话来说，如果房地产最重要的三件事是地段、地段、地段，那么初创企业最重要的三件事就是人才、人才、人才。

To close, in the words of Christina, if the three most important things in real estate are location, location, location, the three most important things in startups are people, people, people.

改变世界的公司的第三个特征是：它们现在的产品不必很出色，但你应该能感觉到自己刚刚瞥见了未来。

The third trait of world changing companies is that their product today doesn't have to be great, but you should feel that you've just glimpsed the future.

你可能会认为，对于Stripe、Figma、Slack、Notion和Facebook这样的传奇产品公司，你可以通过它们早期产品的优秀程度来判断它们将会有多特别。

You'd think that for legendary product companies like Stripe, Figma, Slack, Notion, and Facebook, you could tell how special they were going to be by how good their early product was.

事实证明这种思维方式是个陷阱。

It turns out this way of thinking is a trap.

Saleo曾表示，当他第一次登录Facebook时，我记得自己很失望。

Saleo said that when he first logged into Facebook, I remember being disappointed.

他们团队描述的版本与我当天所见相比，先进了不知多少年。

The version their team had described was light years ahead of what I saw that day.

同样地，当Dylan向我阐述他构建协作式设计平台的愿景时，Figma更像是一个原型而非成熟产品。

Likewise, Figma was more prototype than product the day Dylan laid out his vision to me for building a collaborative design platform.

Christina持有类似观点。

Christina had a similar perspective.

我加入的许多公司都是开发工具或团队协作产品，由于我不是开发者或没有团队使用场景，无法真正试用这些产品。

Many of the companies I've joined were developer products or products that were meant for teams, so I couldn't truly try the product myself as I'm not a developer or didn't have a team use case for it.

因此在那些情况下，我通常会忽略自己对产品的个人看法。

So in general, I discount my own thoughts about a product in those cases.

Sean告诉我们，Slack在最初阶段存在很多粗糙之处。

Sean told us that in the earliest days of Slack, it was rough around the edges.

引用Stewart Butterfield的原话：'那简直就是一坨巨大的狗屎'。

To quote Stewart Butterfield, it was a giant piece of shit.

2013年至2014年的测试期间，愿景的主体框架已具雏形，但仍待完善。

The bulk of the vision was there in that beta period from 2013 to 2014, but still awaiting refinement.

拉斯穆斯一针见血地指出，我经手的几乎所有产品最初形态与最终获得市场成功时的模样都大相径庭。

Rasmus rightly pointed out, almost every product I've worked on started out as one thing, but was something quite different at the time of consumer success.

Spotify最初计划做视频流媒体平台，Figma则想成为表情包生成器。

Spotify was gonna be a video streaming platform and Figma, a meme generator.

因此即便产品很出色，它仍可能需要进行彻底转型。

So even if the product is great, it may have to radically change anyway.

那么你该如何评判产品呢？

So how can you judge the product?

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感谢收听，我们下期节目再见。

Thanks for listening, and see you on the next show.