MacroVoices第507期 Michael Howell：万物泡沫是否即将终结

图表显示那里有三个部分，其中两个涉及美联储（橙色和红色区域）。

And what the chart is looking at, there are three divisions there, two which concern the Fed, which is the orange and red areas.

红色区域代表传统量化宽松，即通过直接购买国债实现的资产负债表扩张。

The red area is conventional QE, so that's balance sheet expansion by simply buying treasuries.

橙色部分就是我们戏称的'非QE的QE'，实际上是后门流动性刺激，来自银行定期融资计划、逆回购账户缩减等其他流动性来源。

The orange bit is what we've, as I said, called slightly tongue in cheek, not QEQE, which is really the backdoor liquidity stimulus, which comes from things like the bank term funding program, the rundown of the of the reverse repo account, etcetera, other sources of liquidity.

这才是真正意义上的美联储量化宽松，显然这一举措提振了华尔街。

And that's really what you would call Fed QE, and that's been something that clearly has lifted Wall Street.

这使美国财富所有者受益，但正如你所知，财政部长贝森一直反对这种做法，尤其是最近新任命的联邦公开市场委员会成员斯蒂芬·梅林。

It's benefited wealth owners in The US, but it's something that, you know, treasury secretary Bessen has railed against, and more particularly recently, new FOMC appointee Stephen Merrin.

他们讨论的重点实际上是我所称的'财政部量化宽松'政策，即图表中的黑色区域。

And what they're talking about is actually focusing much more on what I've labeled treasury QE, which is the black area.

这本质上正是梅林曾撰文警示的担忧所在。

Now that basically is a concern something that Merrin wrote about.

我们还重点关注了美国发行日历向短期国债融资或政府超短期债务融资的转变。

We've also focused on, which is looking at changing the issuance calendar in The US towards bill finance or very short term debt finance of the government.

虽然听起来很技术性，但这种改变系统债务结构的做法实际上等同于流动性注入。

And because that changes the structure of debt in the system, although this sounds wonkish, it actually is equivalent to a liquidity injection.

换句话说，如果大量发行短期国债，关键问题在于谁来购买——通常都是银行。

In other words, if you're if you're issuing a lot of treasury bills, the question to ask is who buys those bills, and it tends to be banks.

而银行购买政府债务在技术上就等同于赤字货币化。

And if banks buy government debt, technically, it is monetization of the deficit.

图表中的小窗口实际上是将流动性刺激与美国经济增长周期进行了叠加对比。

Now the little window in that chart is basically overlaying on the liquidity stimulus the the growth rate or the cycle of The US economy.

可以看到两者高度吻合，且存在约9个月的领先时差。

And you can see that the two line up pretty well with a lead time of about nine months.

因此实体经济应该会在2026年获得动力，这与当前许多人谈论的衰退预期相反。

So it should be that the real economy gets traction in '26, contrary to what a lot of people are talking now about recession.

我认为情况会恰恰相反，经济增长将更为强劲。

I think it's gonna be the opposite, and you get stronger growth.

这种债务货币化现象并非美国独有。

Now this is not just a US phenomenon of this monetization of debt.

这也是一种全球现象。

It's also a global phenomenon.

如果你看第32张幻灯片，这里展示的是全球银行系统对财政赤字和政府债务货币化的规模。

And if you look at slide 32, this is looking at the scale of monetization of fiscal deficits and government debt by banking systems worldwide.

关键在于，这种从长期债务发行转向短期债务发行的转变，是政府通过印钞让银行为其融资的一种微妙方式，因为银行偏爱这种短期票据，而这正是它们正在做的。

And the point is that this shift from longer dated debt issuance towards shorter dated debt issuance is a a subtle way of governments getting banks to finance them through printing money because banks love this short term paper, and that's exactly what they're doing.

所以如果你看第32张幻灯片，这对货币主义者来说是令人担忧的，因为它可能告诉我们，更传统的M2货币供应增长实际上可能在明年加速。

So if you look at that slide 32, that's worrying for monetarists because what it's likely to be telling us is that more traditional m two money supply growth could be actually accelerating into next year.

嗯，你知道的，是的。

And, you know, you yeah.

我们的粗略计算表明，美国传统的M2货币供应可能在2026年以约8%的速度增长，这显然与美联储2%的通胀目标不符。

Our back of the envelope calculations would suggest that USM two conventional money supply could be growing at something like, you know, 8% in 2026, which is clearly incompatible with a fed 2% inflation target.

因此，这是系统面临的长期问题。

So this is the longer term problem that the system faces.

这是你想要实物资产作为抵御这种贬值的一个原因，但还有另一个原因，那就是中国。

Now that's one reason why you want real assets as a protection against this debasement, but there's another reason, which is basically China.

如果我们看看中国在做什么，请看第38张幻灯片，这是一个跳跃，但它基本上展示了中国的债务流动性比率，并将其与日本（图表上的黑线）进行比较。

And if we look at what China is doing, take a look at slide 38, which is a jump forward, but it basically looks at the debt to liquidity ratio of China, and it compares that with Japan, which is the black line on that chart.

正如我试图论证的那样，债务流动性比率是系统的均衡点，你需要做的是摆脱高债务流动性比率，将其降至更平均水平。

Now as I tried to argue, debt liquidity ratios are the equilibrium in the system, and what you need to do is to get out of it or away from a high debt liquidity ratio and to pare that down to more average levels.

你可以看到日本已经成功地做到了这一点。

And you can see Japan has successfully done that.

尽管日本的债务与GDP比率非常高，但由于安倍经济学和日本央行大量购买日本国债（JGBs），货币化债务导致日元大幅贬值，其债务流动性比率已显著下降。

And despite the fact that Japan's debt to GDP is sky high, its debt to liquidity has been brought down significantly because of Abenomics and because of the Bank of Japan buying lots of JGBs, Japanese government bonds, monetizing debt, causing the yen to weaken significantly.

顺便说一下，尽管有很多关于日元被低估的豪言壮语，但它仍在贬值。

And by the way, it's still weakening despite the, you know, a lot of brave words about how the yen is so undervalued.

它正通过贬值来应对这种货币通胀。

It's responding to this monetary inflation by devaluing.

中国现在也在做同样的事情。

China is doing the same thing now.

它正被迫进行货币贬值。

It is being forced into a devaluation of its currency.

它想要印钞。

It wants to print money.

我认为，美国的稳定币现象加速了这一进程。

This has been, I think, accelerated by the stablecoin phenomenon in The US.

这对其货币体系构成了极大威胁。

It's threatened monetary system is threatened greatly by this.

你可以在接下来的幻灯片第39页看到，中国人民银行刚刚向2025年市场注入的流动性规模。

And you can see on the following slide, slide 39, the scale of the impulse that the PBOC has just added to markets in 2025.

他们已经按兵不动很长时间了。

They've been sitting on their hands for quite a long time.

他们一直在实施更紧缩的政策，试图保护人民币兑美元的汇率。

They've running a tighter policy to try and protect the yuan against the US dollar.

我的观点是，这正在产生双重影响。

And my view is that that's doing two things.

一是这种巨大的流动性注入正在推高黄金市场，正如第40页幻灯片所示。

One is that that big liquidity impulse is driving the gold market up, which is what slide 40 says.

我认为我们需要开始思考中国目前如何控制黄金，这实际上是通向未来货币体系的另一种终极过渡。

And I think we've got to start thinking about how China is controlling gold now, and that is another sort of ultimate segue into the future monetary system.

最后，在第41页幻灯片上，你看到的是中国流动性的轨迹，它采用了更长期的视角，利用我们编制的中国流动性对大宗商品价格影响的指数。

And then finally, on slide 41, what you see there is the is a track of Chinese liquidity, which is taking a longer term view using our indexes of the Chinese liquidity impulse against commodity prices.

你可以看到黑色线条表示包含或不包含能源时，中国流动性对大宗商品价格的影响。

And you can see there that in the black lines are the with or without energy, the impact of Chinese liquidity on commodity prices.

事实上，中国在全球和亚洲地区拥有巨大的经济影响力，如果中国经济引擎再次启动，将吸纳大宗商品，从而推高价格。

And the fact is that China has a big economic footprint globally and in the Asian region, And if the Chinese economic engine gets going again, it's gonna suck in commodities, and that's gonna drive prices up.

因此我认为我们正处于大宗商品市场表现良好的阶段。

So I think we're absolutely at the stage where commodity markets do well.

好的。

Okay.

你已经多次提到大宗商品市场应该表现良好，而我们可能正处在股票市场见顶的阶段。

You've said that a couple of times now that commodity markets should do well, and we're maybe getting to the point where equity markets have are reaching a peak.

这对大宗商品股票、矿业股票意味着什么？

What does that mean for the commodity stocks, the mining stocks?

它们是会随着基础大宗商品继续表现良好，还是会受到股市压力的影响？

Are they likely to continue to do well along with the underlying commodities, or are they going to be affected by the pressure on equities?

埃里克，我会从多个角度来论证这一点。

I'll argue this in a in a number of ways, Eric.

我的意思是，如果你用传统估值方法或历史比较来看这些矿业股，许多看起来都很便宜。

I mean, one is that if you look at these many of these mining stocks on traditional valuation grounds or, you know, even compared with their history, they look cheap.

所以我认为这一点毋庸置疑。

So I think there's no question about that.

它们确实具有引人注目的价值。

There there's compelling value in them.

但关键在于，矿业股有两个变动因素：e和p。随着大宗商品价格上涨，e会强劲上升——假设石油价格保持稳定或滞后，因为影响矿业股的一个关键因素是开采成本，而这往往与能源相关。

But the thing is that a mining stock has two moving parts, the e and the p, and the e is gonna move up strongly as commodity prices rise, assuming, let's say, that oil remains or lags because one of the things that tends to affect mining stocks is the cost of extraction, and that tends to be energy related.

因此，观察大宗商品与石油的价格比率，显然能很好地预示这些利润率的变化趋势。

So, you know, looking at the commodity price to oil ratio is clearly a a decent heads up for that for the for those profit margins.

但如果这个比率持续上升，这些股票的盈利空间将进一步扩大。

But assuming that that is going upwards, then you're gonna get further earnings expansion for these stocks.

问题在于市盈率（PE），遗憾的是，PE某种程度上也受华尔街整体估值水平的影响。

But the question is the PE, and the PE, you know, sadly, is also a sort of a function of general levels of Wall Street.

所以如果市场出现抛售，矿业股很难大幅上涨。

So if markets sell off, it's gonna be very difficult for mining stocks to gain dramatically.

它们可能因盈利强劲而跑赢大盘，但这确实是个难以判断的问题。

They may well outperform because they've got stronger earnings, but it's, you know, it's a difficult judgment.

因此我认为，现阶段关注基础大宗商品是更稳妥的选择。

So I think that you're on safer ground looking at the underlying commodities in this at this time.

不过我个人仍然看好矿业股。

But, you know, I'm personally, I'm still favoring mining stocks.

我觉得当前买入它们具有不错的投资价值。

I think they've they've got decent value buying them.

在深入探讨稳定币和货币体系重构这个问题之前——你有一篇出色的论文，研究综述邮件里已附链接供听众下载阅读——我想先消化整份幻灯片内容。

I wanna just assimilate this entire slide deck before we move on to go a little bit deeper into this question of stable coins and rearchitecting the the monetary order, which you've got an excellent paper, again, linked in the research roundup email for our listeners to download and read.

迈克尔，让我们先全面把握这个局面。

Let's just take this all into to perspective, Michael.

如果你在三周前标普指数创下6950点或任何新高时给我看这份演示文稿，我会说，伙计，这真是个强有力的论据，表明我们正接近周期尾声。

If you had showed me this slide deck three weeks ago when the S and P was testing new all time highs at sixty nine fifty or whatever it got up to, I would have said, boy, this is a really compelling argument that says we're nearing the end of a cycle.

现在最大的问题是，好吧。

The big question now is, okay.

什么时候会崩盘？

When's it gonna crack?

天啊，迈克尔，就在最近24小时——我们是在周二欧洲市场开盘前清晨录制时——看到标普指数首次跌破50日均线，要知道这可是自二月以来首次。

Gosh, Michael, just in the last, 24 as we're recording early on Tuesday morning before the European Open, we've seen the S and P break down to its first close below the fifty day moving average for, you know, since February.

而上次发生这种情况时，指数从那里又下跌了1200点。

And the last time it happened, it was 1,200 points down from there.

它刚刚崩盘了吗？

Did it just crack?

如果是这样，那看起来这可能是一件相当重大的事情，也是一个相当重要的信号。

And if so, it seems like maybe this is a a pretty big deal and a pretty big signal.

是的。

Yeah.

有可能。

It could be.

我是说，我认为关键在于，如果你看看投资者情绪指标，这就是散户投资者正在做的事情。

I mean, I think the thing is that if you look at investor sentiment measures, you know, this is what retail investors are doing.

我是说，市场上似乎并没有出现严重的过度扩张。

I mean, there doesn't seem to be a huge overextension in markets.

所以这并不是关于，比如说，过度的估值担忧。

So this is not about, let's say, excessive valuation concerns.

这更多是关于流动性的流动。

This is much more about the flow of liquidity.

通过观察美国的回购市场，你可以看到流动性流动的详细情况。

And you can see the breakdown on the flow of liquidity by looking at the repo market in The US.

这是个相当不错的提醒。

That's a fairly decent heads up.

我的意思是，虽然这只是美国的指标，但它确实很重要。

I mean, it's only a US metric, but it's certainly important.

回购市场目前表现不佳，这主要是因为美联储在某种程度上撤回了支持。

And the repo markets certainly are not behaving very well, and they're not behaving very well simply because the Federal Reserve has pulled the rug away to some extent.

我想再次回到Stephen Miron最近的评论，他说，好吧。

And what I would go back to, again, is you know, is the comments that Stephen Miron has made recently about saying, okay.

我们想要的是资产负债表缩减，同时利率下降。

What we want is the balance sheet down, and we want interest rates down.

这在我看来，他们希望将资金从美联储转移出来，不再大量注入资产市场，而是更精准地引导资金进入实体经济，推动主流经济发展。

And that says to me that they wanna direct the hose away from the Fed and sort of soaking asset markets with actually directing the hose more precisely into the real economy and trying to get mainstream driven forward.

这意味着国防采购之类的举措。

And that means, you know, sort of defense procurement.

这意味着关键矿产。

It means critical minerals.

这意味着采取战略性持股等措施。

It means taking strategic stakes, etcetera.

这又回到了我们多年来一直在讨论的这个总体思路。

And it comes back to this general idea that we've been talking about for some years.

这是一场资本战争，而非贸易战。

This is a capital war, not a trade war.

我是说，贸易战只是表面现象。

I mean, a trade war is a veneer on top.

这实际上是一场资本战争。

It's really a capital war.

这是一场争夺世界经济主导权的斗争，涉及货币和资本领域，而美国志在必得。

This is a struggle for, if you like, dominance of the world economy in terms of currency and capital, and, America wants to win.

从第23页可知，我们正面临巨大的再融资压力墙，而此时美中关系正处于极度紧张状态。

Well, from page 23, we know we're facing this massive, refinancing wall that comes at a time when the relationship between The US and China is under extreme pressure.

所有迹象表明中国正在疯狂购买黄金，显然是为了取代之前以美国国债作为主要储备资产的依赖。

All indications are that China is buying gold hand over fist, apparently to replace their prior dependence on US treasury paper as their primary reserve asset.

你写了一篇出色的论文，研究综述邮件里有链接。

You wrote an excellent paper, which is linked in the research roundup email.

题目是《新货币战争与黄金比特币轴心：美国的数字抵押品对阵中国的黄金》。

It's called the new currency wars and the gold Bitcoin axis, America's digital collateral versus Chinese gold.

在剩余时间里，请简要概述这篇论文的内容。

In the time we have remaining, give us a quick rundown of what this paper is about.

我也要提一下布伦特·约翰逊，因为他做过非常类似的研究。

Let me also flag Brent Johnson because he's done, you know, very similar work.

他可能比我阐述得更精彩。

He probably makes the case more eloquent than me.

但你知道，多年来他一直是奶昔理论的伟大倡导者，这个理论你应该熟悉。

But, you know, he's he's been a great advocate over the years of the of the milkshake theory, which you're familiar with.

我认为理解'奶昔理论'的一个很好方法是看第35页幻灯片，它基本展示了资金大量流入美元的情况。

And I think a very good way of understanding the milkshake theory is to look at slide 35, which basically showing the big inflows into the US dollar.

这一现象明显是自全球金融危机以来几乎独有的。

And this is something which has clearly occurred almost uniquely since the GFC.

出于诸多原因，资金流向已重新导向美国资产和美元。

There has been a redirection of money flows into US assets and the US dollar for a whole host of reasons.

但显然这是事实，这些年来一直推动美元走强。

But clearly, it's been a fact, and that has propelled US dollar higher over the years.

布伦特非常明确地将此称为'奶昔理论'。

And that, you know, Brent is very, know, is very clearly called the milkshake theory.

我认为现在的情况是奶昔理论有两根吸管，不仅是美元这根吸管，还有稳定币这根吸管。

I think what we've got now is a milkshake theory with two straws and not just this sort of dollar straw, but we've also got a stable coin straw.

我认为这很好地解释了中国近几周对这些事态发展的反应，以及为何现在向市场注入大量流动性。

And I think that explains an awful lot about the reaction of what of China in recent weeks to to the to these developments and why it's putting a lot of liquidity into its markets right now.

中国希望快速修复金融体系，这也解释了为何正在大量购买黄金。

It wants to repair its financial system quickly, and it also explains why China is is buying a lot of gold.

我认为现在看到的是全球金融体系正分裂成两部分。

Now what I think you're getting is you're getting a financial system worldwide that is cleaving into two parts.

一部分以黄金为支撑，即中国，而中国显然在积累黄金。

One part which is being backed by gold, which is China, and China is clearly accumulating gold.

中国是黄金生产大国。

It's a big gold producer.

现在不仅是世界最大产金国，还在公开市场持续购买黄金。

It's now the world's biggest, but it's also buying on the open market.

而且，你知道，一些市场专家——正如你所熟悉的——实际上暗示中国已经悄悄积累了大约5000吨黄金的官方储备，远超数据显示的既定数量。

And, you know, some market experts, as you'd be familiar with, are actually suggesting that China has actually, managed to accumulate something like 5,000 tons of gold officially, way, way above what the slated amount is, the data shows.

所以他们正在暗中操作，以隐秘的方式进行，但确实在持续增持。

So they're doing this, you know, surreptitiously, but they're doing it by stealth, but they're still doing it.

这使得他们有能力用黄金来支撑本国货币。

And that gives them the ability to back their currency by gold.

需要强调的是，这并非回归金本位制。

Now it's important to say that this is not a return to a gold standard.

本质上说，不是。

Fundamentally, no.

不是。

No.

不是。

No.

并非如此。

It's not.

因为他们仍然需要法定货币，就像美国那样，本质上需要法币来维持政府运转。

Because they still need fiat because they need fiat money to basically fund the government in the same way that America does.

但美国并没有用黄金支撑其货币体系。

But America is not backing its system with gold.

它使用的是稳定币，本质上是在稳定币框架内包装国债。

It's using a stablecoin, and it's basically wrapping treasuries within a stablecoin wrapper.

所以你看到的是：美国本质上提供的是数字抵押品，而中国则提供黄金或有形资产抵押。

So what you're getting is essentially digital collateral in The US versus gold or tangible collateral in China.

美国实际上在说的是相信我们的技术，而中国说的是相信我们的黄金。

And what America is implicitly saying is trust our technology, and what China is saying is trust our gold.

这就是两个体系基本上的运作方式。

And that's how the two systems are basically working out.

现在稳定币对中国构成巨大威胁，要理解这一点，只需听听欧洲现在对美国稳定币不公平性的抱怨。

Now stablecoin is a big threat to China, and just to understand that, just think of the squeals that are coming out of Europe now about the unfairness of US stablecoin.

而且，你知道，欧洲央行一位重要成员昨天才说过，看吧。

And, you know, a prominent member of the ECB said only yesterday, look.

这是不公平竞争，因为如果美国开始向欧洲居民发行稳定币，我们将失去对货币体系的控制。

This is unfair competition because if The US starts issuing stablecoin to European residents, we're gonna lose Europe is gonna lose control of the monetary system.

好吧，让我们也看看中国的情况，因为中国面临的问题要大得多。

Well, you know, let's just reap that for China too because China's got a much, much bigger problem.

我想象的方式是说，看吧。

And the way that I envision it is to say, look.

如果你是中国出口商，你现在面临的是进退两难的选择。

If you're a Chinese exporter, you're facing sort of the choice between the devil and the deep blue sea at the moment.

你可以把钱，你的美元收入，存入西方银行系统，但可能面临像俄罗斯入侵乌克兰后那样的资产冻结风险。

You can put your money, your dollar earnings, into a western banking system, and you can risk sequestration rather like the Russians faced after the invasion of of Ukraine.

或者你可以把钱存回国内银行系统，但如果你像马云那样触怒当局，就可能面临中国政府的资产冻结。

Or you can put it back in the domestic banking system and risk sequestration by the Chinese authorities, by the PRC, if you do a Jack Ma and fall foul of the authorities.

所以我认为，开始把钱存入稳定币是个直截了当的决定。

So it's very it's a straightforward decision, I would suggest, to start putting your money into Stablecoin.

开立稳定币账户很容易，比开银行账户还简单。

It's easy to open a Stablecoin account, easier than opening a bank account.

更重要的是，持有它们还具有一定程度的匿名性。

And what's more, there's some degree of anonymity in holding them.

因此中国人肯定对此非常恐慌，这就是为什么我认为他们被刺激去稳定金融体系，试图大量购买黄金，发行大量流动性以试图解决债务问题，因为我们正面临这场资本战争。

So the Chinese must be really scared by this, and that's why I think they've been triggered into stabilizing their financial system, trying to buy a lot of gold, issuing lots of liquidity to try and repair the debt problems because we're facing this capital war.

所以这实际上是一个信任我们的黄金还是信任我们的技术的问题。

So it's really a question of saying trust our gold versus trust our technology.

这符合美国的利益，可能会引起争议地说，实际上我们希望让金价不稳定，因为更高的金价将对中国有利。

It's in America's interest, would suggest, you know, maybe controversially, to say, actually, we want to destabilize the gold price because a much higher gold price will benefit China.

而中国的利益则是通过网络战甚至量子计算攻击美国技术，表明我们想要破坏美国社会的根基，因为美国社会高度依赖技术。

And it's in China's interest to attack US technology through cyber warfare and maybe quantum computing to say we wanna undermine the fabric of of US society, which is very technology dependent.

所以你有这两个实体在用非常不同的武器进行战争。

So you've got these two entities at war using very different weaponry.

由于时间关系，我不得不请听众参考你出色的论文以获取更多背景信息，但在结束前我还有一个问题，那就是如何理解这对黄金市场意味着什么？

In the interest of time, I'm going to have to refer our listeners to your excellent paper for more context on this, but I have one final question before we close, which is how do I make sense of what this means for the gold market from here?

因为一方面，我可以看到这样的论点，嘿。

Because on one hand, I could see the argument that, hey.

中国将继续疯狂购买黄金。

China is gonna continue buying gold hand over fist.

这将推高价格。

It's gonna drive the price higher.

你必须长期持有黄金。

You gotta stay long gold.

我们现在可能处于一个低点。

We're maybe at a bit of a low point here.

看起来是个不错的买入机会。

It seems like a good buying opportunity.

上啊，宝贝。

Go, baby.

继续买黄金。

Go on gold.

但我也能看到另一面，那就是特朗普总统正非常积极地参与与中国的谈判。

But then I could see the other side of this, which is president Trump is very much engaged aggressively in negotiations with China.

据我所见，他有非常非常强烈的动机，而且我毫不怀疑斯科特·贝森特理解这一切，并正在指导他这意味着什么——看，中国，我们必须设法达成协议，让你们减少黄金购买，重新转向美国国债，我们会通过稳定币包装使其对你们有利，并承诺不会对你们做对俄罗斯做的事。

He has, as far as I can see, a very, very strong incentive, and there's no doubt in my mind that Scott Bessent understands all stuff and is coaching him on what it all means to say, look, China, we gotta cut a deal here somehow where you guys back off on the gold buying and go back to US treasuries, and we'll make it good for you by wrapping them in stablecoins, and we'll make a promise to you that we're not gonna do to you what we did to Russia.

我该如何平衡这两个想法？

How do I balance those two ideas?

你认为黄金的前景如何？

What do you think the outlook is for gold here?

我认为你得顺应趋势，埃里克。

I think you've gotta play the trends, Eric.

我认为这是肯定的。

I think that's for sure.

我是说，两种大宗商品——黄金和比特币——都是波动性很大的。

I mean, both commodities, you know, gold and Bitcoin are volatile.

我们都知道这一点。

We know that.

但如果你从长期角度看，问题不在于选择黄金还是比特币。

But, you know, if you take the longer term view, perspective is it's not a question of gold or Bitcoin.

这是关于黄金和比特币的问题。

It's a question of gold and Bitcoin.

基于我刚才解释的原因，你需要同时持有这两种资产。

You need both of those assets for the reasons I've just explained.

我认为，如果你从更长远的角度来看，只需考虑联邦债务的增长。

And I think if you look at the longer term perspective, just consider the growth in federal debt.

自2000年以来，美国联邦债务相比现在增长了10倍。

US federal debt since year 2000 compared with now is up 10 times.

这是个令人瞠目的数字。

That's an eye watering figure.

同期标普指数的涨幅不到五倍，而黄金却上涨了12倍。

The S and P has managed to gain less than five times over that same time period, but gold is up 12 times.

因此黄金的涨幅远超联邦债务的增长。

So gold has more than outpaced the increase in federal debt.

如果你开始推演未来，甚至参考国会预算办公室的数据，美国公共债务与GDP的比率将在2050年达到250%，比现在翻倍还多。

So if you start to extrapolate into the future, you're looking even taking congressional budget office data that the debt GDP ratio of public debt to GDP for The US is gonna test 250%, so more than doubling from where we are now by 2050.

这意味着，如果你采用相同的时间线并假设联邦债务的实际黄金价值维持现状（黄金未超额表现），那么到2030年代中期金价应达到每盎司1万美元，到2050年应达到每盎司2.5万美元。

That would suggest that if you just use that same timeline and assume that the real value the gold value of federal debt stays where we are now, not an outperformance by gold, the gold price should be 10,000 by the mid $10,000 an ounce by the middle twenty thirties, and it should be $25,000 an ounce by 2050.

虽然我们未必能活着看到那一天，但趋势确实存在，你必须顺应趋势。

Now that we hire, we'll live to see that, I'm sure, but, you know, the fact is the trend is there, and you've gotta play the trends.

人们本质上需要对冲这种货币通胀的工具。

And people need essentially hedges against this monetary inflation.

我的观点一直是：我们处于货币通胀的世界，而非金融压制的世界。

And my point has been that we're in a monetary inflation world, not a financial repression world.

这其中有微妙但非常重要的区别。

There's a subtle but a really important difference.

迈克尔，这次精彩的访谈让我感激不尽。

Well, Michael, I can't thank you enough for a terrific interview.

我强烈建议听众们下载研究摘要邮件里的全部三个附件。

I really want to encourage our listeners to download all three of the attachments in the research roundup email.

这是幻灯片文件，我们没能逐页讲解。

That's the slide deck, which we didn't have a chance to get to every page in.

我建议大家仔细阅读我们跳过的页面，里面有很多精彩内容。

I I recommend that everyone peruse the the pages we missed because there's a lot of great content there.

特别是你分享的两篇论文都非常出色，我强烈推荐。

But particularly, the two papers that you shared with us, both are excellent and I highly recommend them.

对于想进一步了解全球流动性指数服务的人，他们该如何关注你们的工作？

For people who want to go further than that and, find out more about what services are on offer at Global Liquidity Indices, how do they follow your work?

他们怎么联系你？

How do they contact you?

以及，你们提供哪些服务？

And, what services are on offer there?

好的，埃里克。

Okay, Eric.

最简单的方式是查看Substack。

Well, the the easiest way is to look at substack.

我们在Substack上有个叫'资本战争'的专栏，每周平均发布三次，提供数据分析和评论内容。

We have a substack called Capital Wars where we provide both data and narrative, and we publish about three three times a week on average for that.

我们已从我创立的公司Cross Border Capital转型而来。

We've we've transitioned from a company called Cross Border Capital, which I founded.

我们现在主要关注全球流动性指数，但旧网站crossbordercapital.com仍然存在并运行，我们的机构研究服务仍在该网站提供。

We've now focused a lot on global liquidity indexes, but the old website, crossbordercapital.com, still exists and works, and that's where our institutional research offering is still provided.

所以这两者是主要渠道，我建议关注，另外我们在Twitter上有个账号Cross Border Cap。

So those are the two main conduits, I would suggest, and there's a Twitter account at Cross Border Cap.

现在把时间交还给主持人Eric Townsend和Patrick Suresna。

Now back to your hosts, Eric Townsend and Patrick Suresna.

Eric，很高兴Michael能再次参加节目。

Eric, it was great to have Michael back on the show.

听众朋友们，你们可以在研究汇总邮件中找到本周赛后交易的下载链接。

Now listeners, you're gonna find the download link for the post game trade of the week in your research roundup email.

如果你没有收到研究汇总邮件，说明你尚未在macrovoices.com注册。

If you don't have a research roundup email, that means you have not yet registered at macrovoices.com.

只需访问我们的主页macrovoices.com，点击Michael照片上标有'寻找下载'的红色按钮。

Just go to our homepage, macrovoices.com, and click on the red button over Michael's picture saying looking for the downloads.

Patrick，你从Michael Howell的采访中得到的主要启示是什么？我们该如何设计交易来表达这个观点？

Patrick, what was your main takeaway from Michael Howell's interview, and how can we design a trade to express that view?

Eric，从Michael Howell那里得到的重要启示是，美联储正在转向一个不仅可能而且必须降息的机制。

Well, Eric, the big takeaway from Michael Howell is that the Fed is shifting into a regime where cutting rates becomes not just likely, but necessary.

回购市场的流动性压力、加速的国债发行以及政策转向支持实体经济，都指向同一个方向。

Liquidity pressures in the repo markets, accelerating treasury issuance, and a policy pivot towards supporting Main Street all point to the same direction.

政策利率正在下降，而且可能比市场预期的更快。

Policy rates are heading lower and probably faster than the market is pricing.

因此对于本周的交易，我想直接针对这一结果进行布局。

So for this week's trade, I want to position directly for that outcome.

就在昨天，12月降息的可能性在就业报告推迟至12月中旬后减弱，这一时间节点的变化彻底打乱了前端的市场预期。

And just yesterday, the odds of a December cut have faded after the jobs report got pushed into mid December, and that timing kink has completely scrambled the front end narrative.

但从更宏观的角度看，这类短期混乱正是机会所在。

But in the bigger picture, that kind of short term confusion is the opportunity.

2026年12月SOFR合约目前交易价格约为96.90美元，暗示明年年底联邦基金利率将达到310个基点。

The December 2026 SOFR contract is trading around $96.90, implying 310 basis point Fed funds at the end of next year.

这里的交易策略很明确。

The trade here is straightforward.

市场仍然低估了美联储被迫转向更鸽派立场的可能性。

Markets are still underpricing the probability that the Fed will be forced into a much more dovish pivot.

无论是流动性压力还是抵押品动态，当前形势都表明利率曲线需要重新定价，预计还将有50至100个基点的降息空间。

Whether it's liquidity stress or collateral dynamics, the setup argues that the strip will need to reprice lower policy rates on the order of another 50 to a 100 basis points of cuts being baked in.

因此现在的策略是趁市场暂时被时间噪音分散注意力时，把握住凸性机会，而非更大的宏观转向。

So the play is to own the convexity now while the market is temporarily distracted by a timing noise rather than the bigger macro shift.

为清晰表达这一观点，我正在关注2026年12月三个月期SOFR合约，97.5至98的50个基点宽垂直看涨价差。

To express that view cleanly, I'm looking at the three months SOFR December 2026, ninety seven and a half to 98, 50 basis point wide vertical call spread.

成本为8个点，意味着用8个基点的风险敞口换取潜在42个点的利润，如果利率市场定价更大幅度降息，回报率约为5:1。

It costs eight points, which means that you're laying out eight basis points of risk to make a potential 42 points profit, roughly a five to one payoff if the rates markets price in deeper cuts.

这是一种资本效率高的方式，既能押注鸽派转向叙事，又完全锁定了风险。

It's a capital efficient way to own the dovish pivot narrative with fully defined risk.

帕特里克，每周一在《大格局交易》网络研讨会上，你都会讲解散户投资者如何执行我们当周的最新交易策略。

Patrick, every Monday at Big Picture Trading, your webinar explains how retail investors can put on our most recent trade of the week.

想深入了解这些交易细节的听众，千万别错过bigpicturetrading.com的14天免费试用。

For those listeners that want to explore how to put on these trades in greater detail, don't miss out on a fourteen day free trial at bigpicturetrading.com.

现在让我们深入分析赛后图表数据。

Now let's dive in to the postgame chart deck.

好的，埃里克。

Alright, Eric.

我们来聊聊这些股票吧。

Let's get into these equities.

你对当前市场有什么看法？

What are you thinking of the markets here?

帕特里克，我认为我们必须密切关注股市接下来的动向，要知道上周的情况是这样的。

Patrick, I think it's really important that we keep a close eye on what happens next in the equity market because, you know, last week, the the story was, look.

好的。

Okay.

一旦政府停摆问题解决、机构重新运作，市场就会全速前进，一切都会好转。

As soon as we get the government shutdown resolved and the government reopens, it's gonna be off to the races and everything's gonna be fine.

事实确实如此，但只维持了半天就开始回撤。

That's what happened, it lasted for about a half a day, and then we were rolling back over.

但这只是因为市场在等待英伟达的财报。

Then it was, but that that's just because we're the the market's waiting for NVIDIA earnings.

只要英伟达财报数据向好，一切问题都会迎刃而解。

And once we get NVIDIA earnings, if we get a a positive print there, it's all gonna be fine.

市场将会迎来反弹。

The market's gonna be rallied.

这会非常棒的。

It's it's gonna be great.

好的。

Okay.

现在我们得到了NVIDIA绝对出色的盈利报告。

Now we've got an absolutely outstanding NVIDIA earnings print.

所以市场应该会复苏。

So the market is supposed to recover.

嗯，看吧。

Well, look.

我们一直在50日均线下方挣扎。

We've been struggling below the fifty day moving average.

这是自2月21日以来，我们首次看到跌破50日均线的下行突破。

This is the first time we've, we've seen a breakdown to the downside below the fifty day since, the twenty first, I believe, of February.

所以关键问题在于，市场能否重新站上50日均线并保持在那里？

So the operative question, I think, is can this market get back above the fifty day moving average and stay there?

这意味着我们需要从这里看到相当强劲的反弹。

And that means we need to see a pretty brisk rally from here.

如果我们做不到，换句话说，如果市场预期是政府一重新开放就万事大吉。

If we don't get it, in other words, if the market expectation was that as soon as the government reopens, it's all gonna be fine.

哦，等等。

Oh, wait.

这没奏效。

That didn't work.

只要英伟达的财报一出，一切都会好起来的。

As soon as NVIDIA earnings comes out, it's all gonna be fine.

如果连这都不奏效，那我们就真得质疑这个市场的走向以及还能跌到多低了。

If that doesn't work either, I think we really have to question where this market is headed and how much lower lower can go.

但是，帕特里克，你可是我们这里的技术专家。

But, Patrick, you are the technician in the house.

对于自二月份以来首次日收盘价跌破50日均线，你有多担忧或是不担忧？

How much concern or nonconcern do you have about the first daily close below the fifty day moving average since February?

埃里克，现在市场已正式从峰值到谷底回调了5%，并短暂跌破了50日均线。

Well, Eric, we've now officially had our first 5% market correction from peak to trough and a short trip below the fifty day moving average.

但这里有一些

But here are some of

我们不能忽视的宏观情况。

the bigger picture things that we can't lose sight of.

其一，市场广度持续恶化。

One, market breath continues to deteriorate.

标普500指数中仅有34%的股票位于50日均线上方，这意味着三分之二的股票已明确处于下跌趋势。

We're at 34% of stocks above their fifty day moving average in the S and P 500, which means, basically, two out of three stocks are in a definitive downtrend.

尽管英伟达凭借亮眼财报推动市值加权的标普指数和纳斯达克小幅上涨，但等权重标普500指数和罗素指数仍处于明确破位状态，市场对这些板块几乎毫无反应。

While NVIDIA has certainly spurred the market cap weighted S and P higher and the Nasdaq a little bit higher on its positive earnings reaction, we still have a definitive downtrend and very little reaction to things like the equal weight S and P 500 x index or the Russell, which both are in clear breakdown mode.

金融板块持续表现疲软。

The financials continue to be very weak.

因此从结构上看，基础市场非常非常脆弱。

So the underpinning market is structurally very, very weak.

现在回想去年12月，我们曾经历过类似的下跌行情，在圣诞节期间跌破50日均线后，市场却一路反弹至前高，形成双顶回测，使整个周期延长了一个月。

Now think back to December where we had a similar type of a drop going into the Christmas period below the fifty day, the market mustered up a rally all the way back to its previous high for a double top retest that prolonged the whole sequence by a month.

但不可避免的是，市场调整确实在2月份开始了，当时出现了所谓的'解放日'市场暴跌。

But inevitably, the market correction did start in February when that became that Liberation Day market drop.

同样地，我们很可能仍处于一个更大的顶部形态中，英伟达可能缓解了部分压力，这可能让市场有机会重新测试高点，但现在就开始构建看涨叙事还为时过早。

In the same manner, we may very well still be in a bigger topping formation, and maybe NVIDIA has lightened up some of the pressure, which may allow this market to do some retesting of its highs, but it's incredibly premature to start making a bull case narrative.

我认为这更可能是一个更大的顶部形态，可能会决定第四季度的走势。

If anything, I think this is a a bigger topping formation that may define the fourth quarter.

好的，埃里克。

Alright, Eric.

我们来谈谈

Let's talk about

美元走势。

this dollar.

美元指数(DXY)再次逼近100关口，周三下午甚至短暂突破100，但尚未真正形成向上突破，至少目前还没有。

Well, the Dixie's back up to flirting with a 100 again, actually above a 100 on Wednesday afternoon, but still hasn't broken out to the upside, at least not yet.

美元趋势的反转上行或延续下行，都将推动其他许多市场向相反方向发展。

The dollar trend reversal to the upside or the continuation to the downside is going to drive a lot of other markets in the opposite direction.

因此我们确实需要密切关注美元接下来的走势。

So we really need to see what happens next here and watch the dollar closely.

截至周四早间的录制时间，这波涨势似乎仍在延续，我们可能正开始看到美元向上突破。

And as of recording time early on Thursday morning, looks like the the rally may be continuing, and we might be starting to see that upside breakout on the dollar.

如果这种情况发生，对其他风险资产可能是坏消息。

If that happens, it could be bad news for other risk assets.

在我看来，埃里克，这次美元突破是真实的，这实际上应该引起多头警惕，因为过去九个月再通胀交易一直占据主导地位，而这完全是建立在美元疲软基础上的。

Well, in my eyes, Eric, this dollar breakout is for real, and this actually is something that should be a caution for bulls because the reflation trade has been dominant for the last nine months, and it was all backed on a weak US dollar.

如果这次美元突破获得任何动能，几乎所有这些投资主题都将面临阻力。

Now if this US dollar breakout gains any momentum, it would certainly is going to be a headwind for almost all of those investment themes.

总体来看，欧元出现了新的破位，几乎跌至更低低点。

Now overall, we have a a fresh breakdown in the euro, almost breaking to a lower low.

英镑已经明确破位，美元兑日元汇率正急剧攀升，美元兑加元汇率也在回升。

The pound sterling definitively already broken down, a US dollar yen that is absolutely screaming higher, the US dollar against the Canadian dollar turning up.

目前基本上所有货币对都同步呈现美元走强态势，而且这种势头可能还在增强。

You basically have synchronized US dollar strength right now right across the board, and it may only be gaining momentum.

从跨市场角度来看，这将产生许多连锁反应。

There's gonna be a lot of knock on effects from an intermarket perspective.

这一点不容忽视。

This cannot be ignored.

继续关注美元可能的牛市延续。

Keep watching this US dollar for a potential bull continuation.

好的，埃里克。

Alright, Eric.

我们来说说石油。

Let's talk about oil here.

嗯，它

Well, it

看起来原油价格正试图再次企稳，无论是现货价格还是曲线前端的时间价差都重新回到现货溢价状态，至少曲线前几个月的合约如此。

looks like the price of crude is trying to firm up again, both flat price and front of curve time spreads moving back into backwardation, at least for the first several months out on the curve.

相较于现货价格，我更倾向于相信后者，即时间价差，让我们拭目以待，但看起来原油似乎正试图在此处复苏。

I place more credence on the latter, that is the time spreads, than on the flat price, and, let's see what happens here, but it looks like maybe oil wants to make a recovery here.

根据迈克尔在未来访谈中的评论，大宗商品前景应从此处看涨，但稍等，特朗普迫切需要在中期选举前降低油价，从特朗普总统和贝森部长的言论中可以非常清楚地看出，他们想要提振实体经济，而非华尔街。

Per Michael's comments in the future interview, commodity outlook should be bullish from here, but wait a minute, Trump badly needs and wants lower gas prices into the midterm elections, and it's very clear from president Trump and secretary Besson's comments that they want to, to pump up Main Street, not Wall Street.

因此我认为这意味着他们想要扶持实体经济，而非为石油行业的朋友们谋取利益。

So and I think that extends to they wanna pump up Main Street as opposed to doing favors for their buddies in the oil patch.

所以我认为随着MBS到访与总统会面，局势已明朗，或许某种交易正在暗中进行，已达成协议允许油价在中期选举前持续走低，将美国汽油价格压至2美元以下，待选举后再推高价格。

So I think the writings on the wall here with MBS in town meeting with the president, Maybe some kind of deal, invisible hand is in play here, and a deal has been struck to allow oil prices to continue to move lower into the midterm elections, get gasoline prices in The US down under $2, and then run it back up after the election.

显然，这只是我个人的大胆猜测。

Obviously, that's wild speculation on my part.

我没有任何证据支持这一观点，但就我所见，迹象已经很明显

I have no evidence to support that, but, the the as far as I can see, the handwriting's on

那堵墙。

the wall.

嗯，埃里克，原油价格仍处于该区间的低端。

Well, Eric, crude oil remains at the bottom end of that range.

有趣的是过去一个月的盘整期，本有充分理由下跌并开始抛售，将原油价格推低至55美元或更低，但这种情况并未发生。

Now what's interesting is the last one month consolidation, which had every opportunity to legitimately break down and start selling, sending the crude oil down to $55 or lower, it hasn't.

事实上，每次原油出现破位阴线时，多头都会悄悄逢低买入，而且58至59美元的水平通常都能守住。

And in fact, every time crude oil has done a breakdown candle, the bulls have quietly bought that dip, and, generally, the 58 to $59 level has been defended.

我们将关注多头是否真能尝试形成突破阳线。

What we're gonna be watching is whether or not the bulls can actually attempt a breakout candle.

目前这一情况尚未出现。

Now that has not come yet.

我们仍未突破连接所有高点的下降趋势线。

We still have no violation of the descending trend line connecting all the highs.

它仍处于50日移动均线下方。

It's still below its fifty day moving average.

主要趋势仍是下行，但已不再处于卖出模式。

The primary trend is still down, but it is no longer in sell mode.

目前处于平静的积累阶段，我正在观察是否有催化剂（比如对委内瑞拉的袭击）可能引发短期突破，进而导致空头挤压上涨。

It is in a quiet accumulation phase, and I'm gonna be watching for whether or not some catalysts, maybe like an attack on Venezuela, could spark a short term breakout that could feed into a short squeeze on the upside.

埃里克，现在我们转向黄金话题。

Now, Eric, let's move on to gold.

黄金图表上似乎正在形成三角旗形或对称三角形形态。

Looks like we're starting to form a pennant or symmetrical triangle formation on the gold chart.

我仍然认为这轮牛市还有很大的上涨空间。

I still think there's lots of upside left to go in this bull market.

迈克尔在未来的访谈中也认同这个观点。

Michael agreed with that in the future interview.

让我们拭目以待，但目前局势尚未明朗。

So let's see what happens, but, you know, this isn't resolved yet.

我们正在经历一段调整期，没人知道会持续多久。

We've seen a correction that who knows how long it's gonna last.

上一次黄金调整时，价格下跌了相当幅度才企稳，我认为我们现在正处于转折点。

The last correction in gold, took us quite a bit lower before it resolved, and we're right kind of, I think, on an inflection point.

从图表来看，我们需要看到持续的上涨趋势并保持在50日移动均线上方。

Looking at the chart, we need to see this sustained uptrend and stay above the fifty day moving average.

只要这种情况持续，我认为或许从现在开始会向上发展，但在不破坏长期看涨趋势的前提下，仍有很大的下行空间。

As long as that happens, I think maybe it's upside from here, but there's plenty of room for more downside without breaking the longer term bullish trend.

你关于旗形或对称三角形形态的观点有趣之处在于，这正是黄金前三次盘整的演变方式。

What's interesting about your view about the pennant or symmetrical triangle formation is that that's exactly how the previous three consolidations in gold have played out.

支撑这一观点的事实是，这些下跌都被买盘承接。

Now what supports that is the fact that these dips are being bought.

它保持在50日移动均线上方，因此总体上得到了支撑。

It is holding above its fifty day moving average, and so it is generally being defended.

总体而言，黄金之前的盘整持续时间从两个月到四个月不等。

Overall, the previous gold consolidations lasted anywhere from two months to four months.

所以我基本预期黄金会持续盘整到12月，而在明年第一季度的某个时点，黄金将再次迎来突破机会。

So I would just basically expect that there's gonna be continued gold consolidation into December, and at some point in the first quarter of next year, there'll be another opportunity for gold to break out again.

目前只需预期更多这种在支撑阻力位之间的拉锯战，直到圣诞节期间的盘整结束。

Right now, just expect more of this kind of ping pong match between support resistance levels as it consolidates into the Christmas period.

好的，埃里克。

Alright, Eric.

我们接着谈谈铀吧。

Let's move on to uranium.

帕特里克，我此刻正在加仓铀矿股。

Well, Patrick, I'm adding to my lungs here.

坦白说，我不确定铀和铀矿股的这轮调整是否已经结束。

Frankly, I'm not sure if this correction in uranium and uranium miners is over.

其面临的最大风险是人工智能交易的热潮消退。

The big risk to it was an unwind of the AI trade.

我们刚刚看到英伟达发布了非常积极的盈利报告，看来AI交易尚未退潮，而URA——这个拥有最具流动性期权链的铀ETF，已从超买转为超卖状态。

Now we just saw a really positive earnings print from Nvidia, so it seems like the AI trade is not, unwinding quite yet, and URA, the uranium ETF that has the most liquid options chain, has gone from overbought to oversold.

我特别看好这里行权价50和55的看涨期权。

I really like the fifty and fifty five strike calls here.

市场在周三下午开始回升。

The market started to turn back up on Wednesday afternoon.

让我们看看这种势头能否持续到周四。

Let's see if that lasts into Thursday.

特别是在英伟达的带动下，我们希望看到从现在开始出现强劲反弹，毕竟AI崩盘的担忧至少暂时被搁置了。

Especially on the back of Nvidia, we want to see a, a brisk rally from here now that the question of AI falling apart seems to be at least on the back burner.

如果这种情况没有发生，我会非常担忧我们可能在结束前看到更深的回调。

If that doesn't happen, it makes me quite concerned that we could see a much deeper correction before this is over.

确实，埃里克，既然URA已从高点回落超过30%，现在确实可以考虑某些价位可能具有支撑作用了。

Well, certainly, Eric, now that we have pulled back 30 plus percent off of the highs on the URA, that there is certainly the opportunity to start entertaining the idea that there's gonna be levels here that are viable.

不过总体而言，价格走势仍呈现派发特征，所以现在猜测触底还为时过早。

Overall, though, the price action remains distributive, so it's a very early speculation about catching a bottom.

我将密切关注价格走势是否真正显示出当前价位得到捍卫，这将是多头尝试让行情重回牛市趋势、站上50日均线的关键时点。

I'm gonna be watching to see whether or not the price action really starts to show that the price levels here are being defended, and this is gonna be where the bulls are gonna take a stab at getting this back into bull trend back above the fifty day moving average.

这无疑是个需要观察后续发展的战术性时刻，但我个人倾向于对此保持观望态度。

This is certainly a a tactical moment to see what happens, but I'm a little bit more of a wait and see mode here on this.

具体来看Sprott实物铀信托基金，它已经在一个更大的区间内盘整了一个月。

When we specifically look at that Sprott Physical Uranium Trust, that has been in a much bigger consolidation for a month.

总体而言我更看涨铀价，因为我认为这个领域存在更大的不对称机会。

I generally am more bullish uranium prices because I simply think there's more asymmetry in the opportunity here.

但是，当然，如果你在寻求更高的隐含波动率来提升回报，那么铀类股票是无可替代的。

But, certainly, if you're looking for the higher implied volatility in in your returns, then accept no substitute for those uranium equities.

帕特里克，在结束本周节目之前，我们先来看看十年期国债的走势图。

Patrick, before we wrap up this week's show, let's hit that ten year treasury note chart.

是的。

Yeah.

嗯，埃里克，关于十年期国债收益率，自从上次联邦公开市场委员会会议以来，我们基本上看到十年期国债收益率在上升，但我们仍未看到一个明确的高点序列来确认收益率已开启新的牛市趋势。

Well, Eric, on that ten year treasury yield, ever since the last FOMC meeting, we've basically seen the ten year treasury yields rising, but that we still haven't seen a legitimate sequence of a higher high where a new bull trend has started in the yields.

总体而言，这是一个此前严重超卖的市场，现在正进行逆势反弹。

Overall, this was a very oversold kind of market that is now countertrending.

鉴于就业数据现已推迟到12月公布，美联储在12月会议上按兵不动的可能性增加，这意味着整个利率市场可能会在第四季度剩余时间里维持混沌状态，而收益率市场的下一个重大动向可能要等到新年才会显现。

And with the fact that the jobs numbers have now been pushed out to December, increased likelihood that the Fed just holds on the December meeting means that, all of the rates markets may actually just be muddled in here for the remainder of the fourth quarter and that the next kind of major move in yield markets is gonna emerge in the new year.

那么此刻，我们还能看到收益率快速攀升至4.25%的水平吗？

So at this moment, could we still see a quicker rip to the four and a quarter level, on the upside of the yields?

这完全有可能，但总体而言，我认为均值回归以及下个月收益率在当前水平附近波动的可能性最大。

It's totally on the table, but, generally, I think that mean reversion and it trading more or less around this current level for the next month is probably the most likely outcome.

各位，如果你们喜欢帕特里克的分析图表，可以通过Big Picture Trading的免费试用每天获取。

Folks, if you enjoy Patrick's chart decks, you can get them every single day of the week with a free trial of Big Picture Trading.

详情见幻灯片最后几页，或直接访问bigpicturetrading.com。

The details are on the last pages of the slide deck or just go to bigpicturetrading.com.

帕特里克，告诉大家他们能在本周的研究综述中找到什么内容。

Patrick, tell them what they can expect to find in this week's research roundup.

在本周的研究综述中，你会找到今天访谈的文字记录，以及我们刚刚在赛后讨论中提到的本周交易图表集，还包括一些我们觉得有趣的文章链接。

Well, in this week's research roundup, you're gonna find the transcript for today's interview as well as the trade of the week chartbook we just discussed here in the postgame, including a number of links to articles that we found interesting.

你将在本周的研究综述中找到这个链接以及更多内容。

You're gonna find this link and so much more in this week's research roundup.

本周的节目就到这里。

That does it for this week's episode.

我们非常感谢听众们提供的所有反馈和支持，也一直在寻求如何让节目更好的建议。

We appreciate all the feedback and support we get from our listeners, and we're always looking for suggestions on how we can make the program even better.

对于撰写或博客涉及市场话题并希望与我们听众分享内容的听众，请发送邮件至researchroundup@macrovoices.com，我们会考虑将其纳入每周分发内容。

Now for those of our listeners that write or blog about the markets and would like to share that content with our listeners, send us an email at researchroundup@macrovoices.com, and we will consider it for our weekly distributions.

如果还没关注，请在X平台关注我们的主账号macro voices，获取最新动态和发布内容。

If you have not already, follow our main account on X at macro voices for all the most recent updates and releases.

你也可以在X平台上关注Eric，账号是Eric S。

You can also follow Eric on X at Eric S.

Townsend。

Townsend.

Eric的拼写是带k的。

That's Eric spelled with a k.

你也可以在X平台上关注我，账号是Patrick Suresna。

You can also follow me at Patrick Suresna.

我代表Eric Townsend和我自己，感谢大家的收听，我们下周再见。

On behalf of Eric Townsend and myself, thank you for listening, and we'll see you all next week.

本期《宏观之声》到此结束。

That concludes this edition of Macro Voices.

请每周准时收听，聆听金融和宏观经济领域最杰出人士的专题访谈。

Be sure to tune in each week to hear feature interviews with the brightest minds finance and macroeconomics.

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Macro Voices is made possible by sponsorship from bigpicturetrading.com, the Internet's premier source of online education for traders.

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Please visit bigpicturetrading.com for more information.

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Please register your free account at macrovoices.com.

注册后，您将每周收到我们的免费研究摘要邮件，内含特邀嘉宾支持文档链接，以及我们志愿者研究团队每周在互联网上精选的最佳免费金融内容。

Once registered, you'll receive our free weekly research roundup email containing links to supporting documents from our featured guests and the very best free financial content our volunteer research team could find on the Internet each week.

您还将获得免费听众讨论论坛和研究图书馆的访问权限。

You'll also gain access to our free listener discussion forums and research library.

我们的注册用户越多，未来节目就能邀请到更多知名访谈嘉宾。

And the more registered users we have, the more we'll be able to recruit high profile feature interview guests for future programs.

因此如果您尚未注册，请立即前往macrovoices.com创建免费账户。

So please register your free account today at macrovoices.com if you haven't already.

您可以在iTunes订阅《宏观之声》，每周节目将自动免费推送到您的移动设备。

You can subscribe to Macro Voices on iTunes to have Macro Voices automatically delivered to your mobile device each week free of charge.

您可以将节目问题发送至mailbag@macrovoices.com，我们会在邮件问答环节不定期解答您的问题。

You can email questions for the program to mailbag@macrovoices.com, and we'll answer your questions on the air from time to time in our mailbag segment.

《宏观之声》节目仅用于信息传播与娱乐目的。

Macro Voices is presented for informational and entertainment purposes only.

本节目提供的信息不应被视为投资建议。

The information presented on Macro Voices should not be construed as investment advice.

在做出投资决策前，请务必咨询持牌投资专业人士。

Always consult a licensed investment professional before making investment decisions.

《宏观之声》节目中表达的观点和意见仅代表参与者个人，并不一定反映节目主持人或赞助商的立场。

The views and opinions expressed on Macro Voices are those of the participants and do not necessarily reflect those of the show's hosts or sponsors.

《宏观之声》节目及其制作人、赞助商、主持人埃里克·汤森和帕特里克·苏雷斯纳，对于听众根据节目提供的信息或观点进行投资决策所导致的损失概不负责。

Macro Voices, its producers, sponsors, and hosts Eric Townsend and Patrick Suresna, shall not be liable for losses resulting from investment decisions based on information or viewpoints presented on macro voices.

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Macro voices is made possible by sponsorship from bigpicturetrading.com and by funding from fourth turning capital management LLC.

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