鞋类产品很可能仍将“中国制造”

今天的节目内容，嗯，基本上就是你想象的那样。来自美国公共媒体，这里是《市场》。在洛杉矶，我是凯·里斯代尔。今天是星期一，4月7日。一如既往，很高兴大家收听。

On the program today, well, pretty much exactly what you'd think. From American Public Media, this is Marketplace. In Los Angeles, I'm Kai Risdale. It is Monday today, the April 7. Good as always to have you along, everybody.

让我们在新的一周开始时重新梳理一下，好吗？一位总统错误地认为贸易逆差就是亏损——这是他的原话，不是我说的——他在不到一周的时间里，决定彻底颠覆全球经济秩序。如你所知，股市反应很糟。消费者和企业也越来越不安，没有人知道接下来会发生什么。规则说变就变，毫无预兆。

Let's regroup here for a second at the start of a fresh week, shall we? A president who believes wrongly that trade deficits are losses, those are his words, not mine, he has decided in the space of something less than a week to entirely upend the global economic order. Stock markets, as you know, have reacted badly. Consumers and businesses increasingly the same, and nobody knows what is going to happen next. The rules change on a whim and without notice.

所以，对于我们这些试图搞清楚发生了什么的人来说，我们正在转向一些不常用的指标。《市场》的萨布丽娜·贝尼绍尔从两年期国债开始带我们了解。

So for those of us whose job it is to figure out what is going on, while we are turning to some infrequently used indicators, Marketplaces Sabrina Benishore gets us going with the two year treasury note.

在这个经济体中，几乎每个人在某种程度上都受到利率的影响。哈里·莫梅斯基是哥伦比亚商学院的教授。

Almost everybody out here in this economy is touched in some way by interest rates. Harry Momeski is a professor at Columbia Business School.

这是人们为租车、房屋抵押贷款和信用卡账单所支付的费用。

It's what people pay to lease their cars and their home mortgages and, their credit card bills.

美联储根据其对经济需求的判断来影响这些利率，而美联储的行动将在很大程度上取决于关税对经济的影响。目前，经济学家预计关税政策将在两个主要方面产生影响。

The Federal Reserve influences these interest rates based on what it thinks the economy needs, and what the Fed does is gonna depend a lot on what tariffs do to the economy. Right now, economists expect tariff policy is gonna hit in two big ways.

一是它可能会至少在短期内推高通胀，二是它将压低产出和失业率。

One is it'll probably push inflation up at least for a while, and the other is it will push output unemployment down.

比尔·英格利希是耶鲁管理学院的金融学教授。所以，关税等于通胀。关税也等于经济放缓。问题在于，美联储无法同时对抗这两个问题。

Bill English is professor of finance at Yale School of Management. So tariffs equal inflation. Tariffs also equal economic slowdown. Here's the tricky part. The Federal Reserve can't fight both of those at the same time.

为了对抗通胀，它会保持较高的利率；为了对抗经济放缓，它会保持较低的利率。债券市场必须猜测美联储会选择哪一条路。

It keeps interest rates higher to fight inflation. It keeps rates lower to fight an economic slowdown. The bond market has to guess which one the Fed will do.

市场似乎认为，美联储会对疲软的经济做出更多反应，而不是对高通胀。

Markets seem to think that the Fed will respond more to the weak economy than to the high inflation.

过去几天，展望两年后的两年期债券收益率下降了0.5%。投资者认为，由于经济将比预期更糟，美联储将不得不比预期更大幅度地降息。鲁本·霍沃尼西安是TWC的固定收益投资组合经理。

Yields on two year bonds, which look two years out in the future, dropped by a half a percent the past few days. Investors think the Fed will have to cut interest rates more than expected because the economy is gonna be worse than expected. Ruben Hovonisian is a fixed income portfolio manager at TWC.

投资者认为增长将放缓，我们可能会陷入衰退。

Investors believe that the growth is gonna slow, that we are potentially are going to enter into recession.

年初时，市场预计美联储今年可能只降息一次。现在他们认为美联储将不得不采取更多行动。哈里·莫梅斯基。

At the beginning of the year, markets expected the Fed to cut rates maybe once this year. Now they think the Fed's gonna have to do much more than that. Harry Momeski.

到今年年底，可能会有两到三次降息。

Something like two to three rate cuts, by the end of the year.

因此，今年的利率可能会下降0.75个百分点或更多。到目前为止，美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔表示，美联储并不急于行动。科林·马丁是嘉信理财的固定收益策略师，也是市场承销商。他说，这可能是因为美联储对关税问题真的无能为力。

So interest rates could fall by three quarters of a percent or more this year. So far, Fed chair Jerome Powell has said the Fed is not in a hurry. Colin Martin is a fixed income strategist at Charles Schwab, a marketplace underwriter. He says that may be because tariffs aren't something the Fed can really help with.

如果美联储降息，我不知道这会在多大程度上鼓励企业增加投资。我认为目前影响企业行为的未必是借贷成本的水平，而是不确定性。

And if the Fed were to cut rates, I don't know how much that's gonna encourage companies to invest more. I don't think it's the level of borrowing costs that's necessarily affecting business behaviors right now. It's the uncertainty.

美联储对此无能为力。纽约，我是Subri Baneshore，为您报道市场。

The Fed can't do much about that. In New York, I'm Subri Baneshore for Marketplace.

在华尔街，新的一周开始，正如你所知，开局非常糟糕，收盘时趋于平静。稍后我们将详细报道数字。这件事有一种氛围感，不容忽视。我这么说并不是轻率，只是事情发生得太快，影响又如此巨大，让人有点迷失方向。

On Wall Street, as we start this fresh week, very ugly start as you surely know, calmer by the close. We will have the details when we do the numbers. There's a vibey part of this whole thing that can't be ignored. And I say that not to be flip. It's just that things are happening so fast and with such outsized effect that it can be a bit disorienting.

在一个总体上依赖稳定性的经济体中，人们需要知道发生了什么，这真的很重要。伊丽莎白·克劳福特是Lightcast的高级经济学家。伊丽莎白，欢迎加入节目。

And in an economy that runs, I mean, on stability in a general sense that people know what's going on, that can really matter. Elizabeth Crowfoot is a senior economist with Lightcast. Elizabeth, welcome to the program.

非常感谢，很高兴来到这里。

Thank you so much. Glad to be here.

作为这场对话中受过训练的经济学家，你如何看待眼下发生的一切？

As the trained economist in this conversation, what do you make of everything that's going on right now?

哦，你知道，我是劳动经济学家，所以我显然是从劳动市场的角度来看待问题。我们所见的所有不确定性，正以各种方式在劳动市场中显现出来。

Oh, you know, I'm a labor economist, so I think about things from the perspective, obviously, of the labor market. And just all the uncertainty that we're seeing is really manifesting itself in several ways throughout the labor market.

继续说。

Keep going.

首先，我们看到劳动市场冻结。对吧？招聘停滞了。辞职和裁员相对稳定。职位空缺自2024年以来基本横盘。

First of all, we see this frozen labor market. Right? There are hirings that have stalled out. Quits and layoffs are relatively steady. Job openings have been moving sideways since essentially the 2024.

所以最近人们看不到太多工作机会，而这正是你开始感受到不确定性的地方，至少从消费者角度看是这样。对吧？因为归根结底，就是你有工作吗？你家有收入进账吗？这对你的家庭预算和财务状况意味着什么？

So there's not a lot of job opportunity that people are seeing recently, and that's really where you start to see uncertainty come in, at least from the consumer side. Right? Because at the end of the day, it's, do you have a job? Are you bringing income into your household? And what does that mean for your household budget and your financial situation?

所以如果你没有那份工作和稳定收入，就会在实际经济中体现为你的购买力和你作为消费者的能力。

So if you don't have that job and that solid income, that's going to manifest itself in the real economy in terms of your spending power and your your ability to be a consumer.

如果我把你说的“不确定性”换成“经济信心”，我错了吗？因为在我看来，现在发生的事，比如从上周三开始，就是全球经济完全受一个人情绪左右，对任何事都失去了信心。完全没有稳定性。

Am I wrong if I take your use of the word uncertainty and flip it and talk about economic confidence? Because it seems to me that what is happening now, like since last Wednesday, is that subject to the whims of one man, the global economy now has no confidence in anything. There's there's literally no stability.

就这种稳定性而言，确实是一个人的一时兴起。对吧？它随时可能改变。围绕关税的所有不确定性，同样冲击消费者，也冲击人们的工作。

In terms of that stability, it is definitely the whims of one person. Right? It can change on any given day. The whole uncertainty around tariffs, all of that hits consumers as well. It hits people in in their jobs.

比如，我的邻居很爱旅行，我问他们夏天有什么计划，他们说不知道。我们其实打算缩紧开支，多存点钱，因为我们不知道工作会怎样。嗯。所以这真的在这么多层面上影响着每个人。

And, you know, my neighbors, for example, are big travelers and asking them about, you know, what plans do you have for the summer? And they're saying, I don't know. We're actually gonna hunker down and start saving a little bit more because we don't know what's going to happen to our jobs. Mhmm. So that's really hitting everybody on so many levels.

如果你是个商人——不是说经济学家不是商人——但如果你经营一家制造公司，得考虑在这里建新厂，你今天会考虑哪些因素？

If you were a business person, which is not to say that economists aren't business people, but if if you were, like, running a manufacturing company and you had to think about starting a new plant here, what would your set of considerations look like present day?

这是个非常好的问题。实际上，在我目前在 Lightcast 的职位上，我确实和很多公司交流，尤其是那些位于加拿大的公司，我们几乎都在进行完全相同的对话：我该怎么办？我需要迅速转移业务。但他们必须选择一个在财务上有意义的地区，不仅从劳动力角度来看，还要考虑其他成本。在能源可用性方面，还有很多因素，比如租金。

That's a really good question. And, actually, in my current position at Lightcast, I do talk to a lot of companies, especially those that are in Canada, having the same exact conversation about, What am I going to do? I need to move operations quickly. But they need to be in an area of the country that going to make sense for them financially, not only from a labor standpoint, but from other costs as well. In terms of energy availability, there's so much that goes into that rents.

所以这是一个巨大的方程式。它涵盖了从另一个国家开始经营业务的所有方面，以及他们需要考虑的所有因素。

So it's a huge equation. It's the whole gamut of starting to run a business from a different country and what are all of the considerations that they need to make.

那么，你的这个问题可能有点模糊，但你目前对所看到的情况有多担心？再次强调，在这场对话中你扮演的是经济学家的角色。

What is your this is a sort of a squishy question, but what's your overall level of concern right now about what you see, again, as The Economist in this conversation?

我的意思是，到目前为止，真实的经济数据仍然非常稳健。比如上个月的就业报告

I mean, the real economic data so far is still really solid. I mean, the jobs report from last

这是一个非常重要的一点，确实如此。对吧？是的。

week That's an important that's a super important point, actually. Right? Yeah.

是的。我的意思是，失业率仍然非常低，历史性地低，只有4.2%，就业增长非常稳健。如果这是在疫情之前，我们都会为此庆祝，对吧，这种就业的大幅增长。但确实，围绕这些的不确定性很大，而我们正处于一个非常脆弱的位置。而且情况变化得非常快。

Yeah. I mean, unemployment is still very low, historically low, 4.2%, really solid job gain. If this was pre pandemic times, we'd be all celebrating, right, this huge uptick in jobs. But, yeah, I mean, it's all the uncertainty around that, and we're just in such a vulnerable position. And the thing is that it changes so quickly.

Elizabeth Crowfoot。她是 Lightcast 的高级经济学家。Elizabeth，感谢你抽时间。我非常感激。

Elizabeth Crowfoot. She's a senior economist at Lightcast. Elizabeth, thanks for your time. I really appreciate it.

谢谢。很高兴来到这里。谢谢。

Thank you. Great to be here. Thanks.

全球贸易的特点就是它是全球性的。所以无论特朗普总统说他要对美国经济做什么，它都不会只停留在美国经济内部。举个例子，世界第二大经济体。上周的关税风暴把中国进口商品的总税率提高到了54%。然后今天早上，为了确保你完全跟上节奏，总统又威胁要对中国再加50%的关税，我帮你算一下，这将使中国进口商品的税率达到104%。

The thing about global trade is that it's global. So whatever it is that president Trump says he's doing to the American economy, it ain't gonna stay in the American economy. Case in point, the second biggest economy in the world. Last week's Tarif Orama brought the total tax rate on Chinese imported goods to 54%. And then this morning, just to make sure you're completely up to speed, the president threatened another 50% China tariff, which doing the math for you here would bring the tally on Chinese imports to 104%.

你可能还记得，在特朗普第一任期内，关税主要针对的是太阳能板、电脑和鞋类等产品，作为应对措施，很多制造商试图在越南和柬埔寨等地设厂。但这并不总是奏效。由于种种原因，中国仍然是生产许多产品的最佳地点。Marketplace 的 Jennifer Pak 在中国南方城市东莞为你解释。

You'll recall perhaps that during Trump won, the tariffs were on things like solar panels and computers and footwear, and that as a workaround, a lot of manufacturers tried to set up shop in places like Vietnam and Cambodia. That didn't always work out though. And for a lot of reasons, China is still the place to produce a lot of stuff. Marketplace Jennifer Pak explains from the southern Chinese city of Dongguan.

制鞋是劳动密集型产业。工人手工打孔、手工穿鞋带，拥有这家工厂的Shoebot公司老板James Gao说。

Shoe manufacturing is labor intensive. Workers punch every hole and lace every shoe by hand, says James Gao, whose company Shoebot owns this factory.

每一道穿鞋带都是人工完成，没有机器人。

Every lacing is is manual. There's no robot.

他说，一旦当地工资过高，像他这样的制鞋商就得搬迁。自西方开始制鞋以来，这种模式就一直存在。

When local wages get too high, he says, shoe manufacturers like him have to relocate. That's been the pattern ever since shoe making started out in the West.

鞋业起源于欧洲，然后是美国。

The footwear start from Europe and then America.

到20世纪60年代，他说鞋厂先转移到日本和巴西，再到韩国和中国台湾。过去三十年，行业主要集中在中国大陆，直到特朗普总统第一任期内对中国加征关税，中国也对美国商品加征关税反击。于是七年前，更多公司开始考虑把生产迁往东南亚。其中就有科罗拉多鞋履品牌Xero，名字里带个X。

By the nineteen sixties, he says shoe factories had shifted to Japan and Brazil, then Korea and Taiwan. And for the past three decades, the industry has been based largely in Mainland China until president Trump's first term when he hiked tariffs on China, and China hit back with tariffs on US goods. So seven years ago, more companies started to look at relocating production to Southeast Asia. Among them, Colorado shoe brand, Xero, spelled with an x.

我们其实考察过越南。

We actually looked at Vietnam.

联合创始人Laina Phoenix说，品牌最终没搬去越南，因为他们生产的是模仿赤足感的专业鞋。

Cofounder, Laina Phoenix, says though the brand didn't make the move to Vietnam because they produce specialized shoes meant to mimic the sensation of being barefoot.

我们产品线从休闲凉鞋到技术型登山靴，再到专业级篮球鞋都有。因为款式跨度大、技术要求不同，我们得用多家工厂。

We make everything from casual sandals to technical hiking boots to professional quality basketball shoes. So because we have such a wide range of styles requiring different technical capabilities, we use a number of different factories.

而这些工厂都在中国，因为那里才有熟练工人。Phoenix的公司正与James Gao的Shoebot合作。Shoebot服务中小品牌，也在越南设厂，但规模较小。公司的一位客户Mark Olson共同拥有波特兰初创鞋牌Avoli。

And those factories are in China because that's where the skilled workforces are. Phoenix's company is doing business with James Gao's shoe bot. Shoe bot works with small and medium sized brands. It also makes shoes in Vietnam, though its operations there are small. One of the company's clients, Mark Olson, co owns a Portland shoe startup called Avoli.

他说，越南可能适合大品牌，不适合像他这样专注女性和女孩排球鞋的小众品牌。

He says Vietnam may be good for big brands, not niche ones like his that make volleyball shoes for women and girls.

越南就像15年前的中国。

Vietnam is where China was maybe fifteen years ago.

但他说，中国拥有所谓的产业集群，从原材料到泡沫制造商、针织品、鞋带和刺绣团体，制造鞋子所需的一切都在中国。他说，它们都在中国鞋厂的开车距离之内。

But China, he says, has so called industrial clusters with everything you need for shoes from raw materials to foam manufacturers, knitwear, lacing, and embroidery groups. They're all within driving distance of Chinese shoe factories, he says.

所以这里就是为这个而设的。

So it's just set up to do it right.

他说，中国工厂具有创新精神。他们寻找新材料，升级机器，缩短生产时间。Volley的另一位联合创始人Rick Anguilla表示，在中国制造可以更容易地推出和测试新款排球鞋的不同颜色。

And he says the Chinese factories are innovative. They find new materials, upgrade machines, and cut down production times. Manufacturing in China makes it easier to roll out and test different colors for new volleyball shoe styles, says Volley's other cofounder, Rick Anguilla.

没有什么比在这些比赛中展示我们的产品，听到他们经过时说的那四个字更让人感到满足的了。哦，那些真可爱。

There's nothing more satisfying than being at, one of these tournaments and having our product on display, and you hear those four words as they pass by. Oh, those are cute.

他说，他的公司曾考虑在美国制造，但认为挑战太大。Zero Shoes的Laina Phoenix也同意这一点。

He says his company thought about manufacturing in The US but decided the challenges were too great. Laina Phoenix of Zero Shoes agrees.

这需要数亿美元的工厂投资，培训一个不存在的工作队伍。这需要大量的时间。

It would take hundreds of millions of dollars of factory investment, the training of a workforce that does not exist. It would take an enormous amount of time.

尽管越南的劳动力技能较低，但它似乎是一个更有吸引力的选择，她的公司曾希望将制造转移到那里。自从特朗普上周将越南出口关税提高46%以来，她开始重新考虑。

Vietnam seemed like a more attractive option despite its less skilled workforce, and her company had hoped to shift manufacturing there. Since Trump increased tariffs on Vietnamese exports by 46% last week, she's been having second thoughts.

对我们来说，关键的一点是要知道这些是否真的是最终的关税。鉴于本届政府出台的所有变化，我们在某种程度上正在等待尘埃落定。

One of the things that's critical for us to know is whether or not these are in fact the final tariffs. Given all of the changes that have come out of this administration, we are, to some extent, waiting for the dust to settle.

在这个不确定的时期，一些制造商仍然保持乐观。再次请出Shoe Bot首席执行官James Gao。

In these uncertain times, some manufacturers remain optimistic. Again, Shoe Bot CEO, James Gao.

作为一名企业家，

As an entrepreneur and

作为一名企业家，他表示自己很兴奋，因为严峻的经济环境和不确定性意味着大企业并不占尽优势。像他这样的小制造商更灵活，可以帮助客户快速转型，以应对接下来可能发生的任何情况。在东莞市，我是Jennifer Pat，为您报道《市场》。

As an entrepreneur, he says, he's excited because the tough economic climate and uncertainty means large players don't hold all the advantages. Small manufacturers like him are more agile and can help clients pivot quickly, he says, for whatever may come next. In Dongguan City, I'm Jennifer Pat for Marketplace.

接下来

Coming up.

这是一个美丽的设施。它运行干净、免费。

It's a beautiful facility. It works clean, free.

而且它即将被关闭。不过首先，让我们看看数字。道琼斯工业平均指数今天收盘下跌349点，跌幅0.9%，报37965点。纳斯达克小幅上涨15点，涨幅约0.1%，报15603点。标普500在午间交易中一度跌入熊市，随后反弹。

And it's getting shut down. First, though, let's do the numbers. Dow Industrials off 349 points at the close today, nine tenths percent, 37,965. The Nasdaq inched up 15 points, about a tenth percent, fifteen thousand six zero three. The S and P 500 dipped into bear market territory in midday trading before swinging back.

收盘时下跌11点，跌幅近0.25%，报5062点。正如我所说，开盘非常糟糕。还是买衣服吧。现在我们放眼全球，好吗？香港恒生指数下跌13.2%，为1997年以来最大单日跌幅。

Tally at the close was a dip of 11 points, nearly a quarter percent, 5,062. As I said, very ugly start. Better buy the clothes. Let us go global now, shall we? Hong Kong's Hang Seng dipped thirteen and two tenths percent, the biggest single day drop since 1997.

日本日经指数下跌7.8%。在欧洲，英国富时指数下跌约4.4%。巴黎CAC40指数下跌4.8%。德国DAX指数下跌约4.1%。今天，白宫已指示美国外国投资委员会（CFIUS）重新审查日本制铁收购美国钢铁的提案。

Japan's Nikkei slumped 7.8%. Over in Europe, Britain's footsie stepped down about four and four tenths percent. The Cat Caron, the Cat forty in Paris slipped four and eight tenths percent. The DAX in Germany off about four and a tenth percent. Today, the White House has directed has directed rather the committee on foreign investment in The United States, CFIUS, to take fresh look at Nippon Steel's bid to acquire US Steel.

你可能还记得拜登政府阻止了这笔交易。美国钢铁股价今天上涨16.2%。您正在收听《市场》。这里是《市场》，我是Kai Risdahl。

You might remember Biden administration blocked that deal. US Steel shares up sixteen and two tenths percent. Today, you're listening to marketplace. This is marketplace. I'm Kai Risdahl.

欧盟委员会主席乌尔苏拉·冯德莱恩今天表示，欧洲“随时准备达成一项好协议”，因为作为全球第二大经济体（作为一个整体），欧盟正试图应对与美国关系的变化。无论是否有协议在即，一些来自大西洋彼岸的进口商品已经陷入关税交火之中，尤其是汽车。奥迪表示，将让最近抵达美国港口的汽车暂时停留，以弄清楚情况，捷豹路虎将暂停从英国发货一个月。《市场》的Henry Ep解释了欧洲汽车如何揭示世界其他地区对特朗普关税的反应。

Ursula von der Leyen, the president of the European Commission, said today that Europe is, quote, always ready for a good deal as the EU, the world's second biggest economy when taken as a single bloc, tries to navigate its changing relationship with The United States. Whether there's a deal in the offing or not, some imports from across the pond are already caught in the tariff crossfire, cars in particular. Audi says it's gonna keep recently arrived cars at ports in The United States while it figures out what's what, and Jaguar Land Rover is gonna pause shipments of cars from The UK for a month. Marketplaces Henry Ep explains what European cars can tell us about how the rest of the world is responding to Trump's tariffs.

欧洲汽车公司有一点时间来规划下一步行动，因为他们的经销商库存中有在关税生效前进入美国的汽车。因此，Kelley Blue Book的Sean Tucker表示，奥迪可以让这些车暂时停在港口。

European car companies have a bit of time to plot their next move because they've got cars on dealer lots that came into The US before the tariffs. So Sean Tucker at Kelley Blue Book says Audi could keep those cars sitting in port for a while.

因为目前，他们的经销商在不得不支付关税后成本之前，已经有超过三个月的库存。

Because at this point, they have more than a three month supply before their dealers reach a point where they're they're having to pay the post tariff cost.

但很快，他们就必须做出选择。iccars.com 的卡尔·布劳尔表示，在全球市场向电动化倾斜的背景下，向美国销售内燃机汽车一直是稳定的收入来源。但现在

But pretty quickly, they'll have to make a choice. Selling internal combustion engine cars to The US had been a steady source of revenue in a global market that's leaning electric, says Karl Brauer at iccars.com. But now

由于关税，他们甚至无法把原本利润丰厚的内燃机汽车卖给美国消费者。

They can't really sell even their internal combustion cars that were that still had plenty of profit built in to The US consumers because of the tariffs.

那么，如果这些关税持续存在，他们有哪些选择？布劳尔说，他们可以把更多生产转移到美国，以避开进口税。或者，里海大学国际关系助理教授玛丽·安妮·马德拉表示

So what are their options if these tariffs stay in place? Brower says they could shift more production to The US to avoid import taxes. Or says Mary Anne Madeira, an assistant professor of international relations at Lehigh University.

对这些企业来说，最好的选择是把贸易从美国转移出去，转向世界其他消费市场。

The best option for these firms is to divert trade away from The US and towards consumer markets elsewhere in the world.

她说，欧洲领导人已经开始寻求与南美及全球其他地区开放贸易，但如果与美国达不成协议，他们也在准备采取报复措施。马德拉指出，问题在于平衡欧盟27个成员国之间所有相互竞争的利益和政治真的十分棘手。举个例子？

European leaders, she says, have already been looking to open up trade to South America and other parts of the globe, but they're also preparing to respond with retaliatory measures if they don't reach a deal with The US. The problem is, Madera says, balancing all the competing interests and politics across the 27 member states in the EU is really tricky. One example?

汽车产业主要集中在德国，但许多零部件和供应商却位于捷克共和国和匈牙利等中东欧国家。

The automobile industry, you know, is really located in Germany, but a lot of parts and suppliers are in Central and Eastern European countries like, Czech Republic and Hungary.

因此，为了维护欧盟整体利益而打击某一国的出口，可能会损害成员国之间的关系。我是亨利·埃普，Marketplace报道。

So hurting the exports of one country in the name of standing up for the block could hurt relations between EU members. I'm Henry Epp for Marketplace.

我们大概两周前跟你提过铜，当时它刚刚创下历史新高。如你所知，在如今这种形势下，两周可是相当长的时间，而铜价正在暴跌，Marketplace的萨凡纳·彼得斯报道称，这可是一个宏观经济信号。

We told you a couple of weeks ago, I think, about copper and how it was then at a fresh record high. Two weeks, as you know, is a very long time the way things are going right now, and copper is cratering, which as Marketplaces Savannah Peters reports, is something of a macroeconomic tell.

在这个经济体里，制造或建造几乎任何东西都需要铜。几乎每个行业都依赖它。

You need copper to make or build just about anything in this economy. Almost every sector relies on it.

来自建筑、基础设施，还有国防领域。

From construction, infrastructure, and also defense.

蓝线期货的首席市场策略师菲利普·斯特里布尔表示，这些是铜的传统市场，但它在各种新兴科技中也需求旺盛。

Chief market strategist Philip Streebel at Blue Line Futures says those are the traditional markets for copper, but it's also in high demand for various kinds of emerging tech.

电动汽车，其用铜量是传统燃油车的四倍；人工智能，这种高能耗计算，也需要铜来完成其功能。

EV vehicles, which use four times more copper than traditional gas vehicles, AI, which is energy intense computing, requires copper in order to perform its function.

所有

All of

这些都说明，无论是实物铜还是铜期货的需求，通常预示着健康的经济增长。但全球X ETF高级分析师特雷弗·耶茨表示，最近对第29号元素的抢购并不符合这一模式。

this is why demand for copper, both the actual metal and copper futures, usually portends healthy economic growth. But the recent run on the twenty ninth element doesn't quite fit that pattern, says Trevor Yates, senior analyst at Global X ETFs.

铜价几乎因这种提前买入而被人为推高。

Copper prices were almost synthetically high because of this prebuying.

提前抢在上周关税公告前买入，而最终关税并未针对铜。休斯顿大学金融学教授克雷格·佩龙表示，铜与木材和半导体一起被列入白宫豁免的短名单。

Prebuying ahead of last week's tariff announcements, which ultimately did not target copper. Craig Perong, a professor of finance at the University of Houston, says it's on a short list of products, including lumber and semiconductors exempted by the White House.

一个可能的原因是，他们推测美国人将承担铜关税的大部分成本。

One possible reason would be that they surmised that Americans would bear most of the cost of the tariff on copper.

于是暂时决定不对铜征收具体关税。那么，为什么铜价一直在暴跌？

And decided against a specific tariff for now. So why have copper prices been tanking?

这是对经济前景的裁决，而不是铜市场本身的问题。

This is a verdict about prospects for the economy, not something specific to the copper market.

Purong表示，铜需求放缓可能预示着全球范围内更广泛的放缓，尤其是在中国这个世界最大的铜消费国。我是Savannah Peters，为您播报《市场》。

Purong says slowing demand for copper could foreshadow a broader slowdown around the world, especially in China, the world's top buyer of the metal. I'm Savannah Peters for Marketplace.

在莫哈韦沙漠深处，距离洛杉矶市中心大约200英里，靠近内华达州边界的地方，有一座名为Ivanpah的太阳能发电厂。它并不是像屋顶那样通过大量太阳能板直接发电，但十多年来，它提供的电力足以供应14万户家庭。这又是另一个你无法对抗市场的例子——它即将关闭。《市场》的Kelly Wells为您解释。

Way out in the middle of the Mojave Desert, 200 ish miles northeast of Downtown LA, right up against the Nevada border, is a solar plant known as Ivanpah. It's not a bunch of solar panels generating electricity directly like on a rooftop, but still it's been supplying enough juice to power a 140,000 homes for more than a decade. And in yet another example of you just can't fight the market, It's closing soon. Marketplace's Kelly Wells explains.

Ivanpah采用的是所谓的“聚光太阳能发电”技术。基本上，你会设置一圈圈呈同心圆排列的镜子。

Ivanpaugh creates what's called concentrated solar power. Basically, you set up a bunch of mirrors in concentric circles.

这些镜子将太阳的热量反射到一个安装在高塔顶部的接收器上。

And those mirrors reflect the heat of the sun to a receiver that's mounted at the top of a big tower.

清洁能源顾问Ed Smelloff说，接收器里有熔融液体，在光束焦点处被加热到极高温度，热到足以像卡通里那样把偶尔飞过的鸟烤焦。

Clean energy consultant Ed Smelloff says the receiver has molten liquids that then heat up really hot in the focus of the beam, which is hot enough to cartoon style fry the occasional bird that flies through it.

接收器中的流体——熔融盐——被用来驱动能量，通过传统的蒸汽涡轮机发电。

And the fluid in the receiver, molten salts, is used to drive the energy through, conventional steam turbine.

就像化石燃料发电厂一样，只不过用的是阳光，而不是燃烧煤炭或天然气。Ivanpah于十一年前投入使用，由NRG Energy公司运营。建设成本为22亿美元，其中16亿美元来自美国能源部的贷款。

Just like in a fossil fuel plant, except using sunlight instead of burning coal or natural gas. Ivanpaugh opened eleven years ago, and it's run by a company called NRG Energy. It costs $2,200,000,000 to build, 1,600,000,000.0 of which came in the form of loans from the Department of Energy.

与其他可再生能源技术相比，该项目的成本在当时看起来是合理的。当然，在过去十五年左右的时间里，这种情况发生了巨大变化。

The cost of the project compared to other renewable technologies looked reasonable. That, of course, has changed dramatically over the last fifteen years or so.

因为在这段时间里，光伏（PV）太阳能——也就是太阳能板——的成本下降了约70%，使得其发电成本远低于Ivanpah的发电成本。该电厂的主要购电方——加州公用事业公司PG&E——发表声明称，为了节省客户资金，将退出该项目。Ivanpah预计将于明年年初关闭。这是否算作失败，取决于你如何看待能源部贷款项目办公室的使命，前主任Jigar Shah表示。

Because over that period, the cost of photovoltaic or PV solar power, you know, solar panels, has fallen about 70% to the point where it's significantly cheaper than the energy that Ivanpah generates. The main buyer of the plant's power, California utility PG and E, released a statement saying it's pulling out to save its customers' money. Ivanpah is set to close early next year. Whether that counts as a failure depends on how you view the mission of the Department of Energy's loan programs office, says Jigar Shah. He's the former director there.

从明确成功的角度来看，我们给了他们资金，他们在美国实现了这项技术的商业化。

It was clearly successful in that we gave them money, and they commercialized the technology here in The United States.

他还表示，纳税人将拿回大部分资金。能源部拒绝透露具体金额。另一方面，Shaw说

He also says taxpayers will get most of their money back. The Department of Energy declined to say exactly how much. On the other hand, Shaw says

它没有带动一万亿美元的投资。因此从这个角度看，它并不成功，对吧？而我们所做的光伏投资确实带动了一万亿美元的投资。

It didn't catalyze a trillion dollars worth of investment. So from that perspective, it wasn't successful. Right? Whereas the solar PV investments that we made did catalyze a trillion dollars of investment.

正是这一万亿美元的投资，帮助把光伏太阳能的价格压低了70%。

And that trillion dollars of investment is what helped drive the price of PV solar down 70%.

从长远来看，我们做这一切的目的，是让那些成功的技术实现规模化成功。

Long term, the reason we're doing all of this is to get the technologies that succeed to get successful at scale.

即使伊万帕关闭，聚光太阳能也不会消亡。仍有人和公司认为这座电厂有价值，Fred Morse就是其中之一。

Concentrated solar power won't die when Ivanpah shuts down. There are still people and companies who think the plant has value. Fred Morse is one of them.

他就是五十五年前撰写那份报告的人

He's the guy who wrote up

那份报告探讨了在白宫屋顶安装太阳能是否划算。如今，他经营一家名为Sol Store Energy的初创公司，开发聚光太阳能。

the report fifty five years ago on whether it made sense to put solar on the roof of the White House. Today, he runs a startup called Sol Store Energy that develops concentrated solar.

我两个月前去过，那是个美丽的设施。它运行清洁、无碳。你真的想关掉它吗？

I was there two months ago. It's a beautiful facility. It works clean, carbon free. You really wanna shut that down.

他说，没错，白天光伏板更便宜，但晚上它们毫无用处。而聚光太阳能电厂可以把产生的超热熔盐泵入保温罐，这样夜间也能发电。但Moore表示，像伊万帕启动时所需的那种未来投资，在新贸易战和联邦政府收缩的背景下，变得更加不确定。我是Kaylee Wells，Marketplace报道。

He says, sure, PV solar panels are cheaper in the daytime, but they don't do squat at night. Whereas a concentrated solar plant can pump those superheated molten salts it generates into an insulated tank, so the plant can generate electricity at night. But Moore says the future investments like the one Ivanpaugh needed to get off the ground are more uncertain as the new trade war and the shrinking of the federal government make investment less likely. I'm Kaylee Wells for Marketplace.

今天节目最后提一句，一个不太妙的经时信号。在彭博看到的，数据来自退休服务提供商Empower。显示401(k)的困难提取比历史均值高出约15%到20%。这些提前提取当然会被征税，如果你未满59岁半，还要额外缴纳10%的罚金。

This final note on the way out today, a not great sign of the economic times. Saw this on Bloomberg. It's data from Empower, which is a retirement services provider. It shows that hardship withdrawals from four zero one k's are running about 15 to 20% above the historical norm. Those early withdrawals, of course, are taxed, and if you're under 59 and a half, come with a 10% penalty.

这确实不是什么好迹象。我们的日常制作团队包括安迪·科尔宾、尼古拉斯·纪尧姆、玛丽亚·霍伦霍斯特、伊鲁·埃克巴诺比、莎拉·利森、肖恩·麦克亨利和索菲娅·托伦齐奥。我是凯·瑞兹达尔。大家明天见。这里是8PM。

It is a not great sign indeed. Our daily production team includes Andy Corbin, Nicholas Guillaume, Maria Hollenhorst, Iru Ekbanobi, Sarah Liesen, Sean McHenry, and Sofia Torenzio. I'm Kai Rizdal. We will see you tomorrow, everybody. This is 8PM.

美国正在改变，世界也在变。

America is changing, and so is the world.

但美国正在发生的事情不仅仅是全球动荡的原因，它也是各地都在发生的混乱的一种表现。

But what's happening in America isn't just a cause of global upheaval. It's also a symptom of disruption that's happening everywhere.

我是阿斯马查利德，在华盛顿特区。

I'm Asmachalid in Washington, DC.

我是特里斯坦·雷德曼，在伦敦，这里是《全球故事》。

I'm Tristan Redman in London, and this is the Global Story.

每个工作日，我们都会为你带来一个世界与美国交汇处的报道。

Every weekday, we'll bring you a story from this intersection where the world and America meet.

在bbc.com或你收听播客的任何地方收听。

Listen on bbc.com or wherever you get your podcasts.