瑞士再保险的Velina Peneva谈再保险业务

ALM是指？

ALM being?

资产负债管理。

Asset liability management.

如果你考虑保险资产管理，我们显然是为集团服务，但我们有业务单位和法律实体。

So if you think about insurance asset management, we obviously serve the group, but we have business units and legal entities.

这些业务单位和法律实体各自都有战略资产配置。

And each of these business units and legal entities have their own strategic asset allocations.

我的职责是管理那些业务部门和法人实体的资产配置。

So my role was to manage those business unit and legal entity asset allocations.

那你做了多久？

So how long did you do that for?

从2019年到什么时候？

From 2019 till when?

直到我担任首席投资官。

Until I got the CIO job.

具体是什么时候？

Which was?

2023年。

In 'twenty three.

所以17年、19年，过去两年你一直是瑞士再保险内部基金的首席投资官，管理着约1000多亿美元的资产，对吗？

So '17, So '19, 'twenty for the past two years, you've been Chief Investment Officer for Swiss Re's internal fund, which is 100 something billion dollars, is that right?

1081.01亿美元

$108,101

1081亿，对。

108, yeah.

朋友之间差个十亿八亿算什么？

What's a billion or 2 between friends?

其中有多少配置在私募股权和另类投资上？

How much of that is allocated to private equity and alternatives?

又有多少投入股票债券这类公开资产？

How much of that goes to public assets like stocks and bonds?

这是否意味着与您从事私募股权时相比，现在采用的投资策略和任务目标都截然不同了？

Is it a different set of strategies, a very different mandate than you had when you were running private equity?

在回答这个问题之前，我想先为听众们简要介绍一下保险资产管理是什么，以及它与其他机构投资者的资产管理有何不同。

So maybe before I answer this question, for your listeners, I want to give a very quick primer of what insurance asset management is and how it's different from asset management for other institutional investors.

因为我认为有了这个背景，答案会更容易理解。保险资产管理的优化功能主要体现在三大支柱上。

Because I think the answer will make a lot more sense with that So in if you think about insurance asset management, the optimizing function that we have is in three pillars.

第一是长期价值创造。

First is long term value creation.

我们注重稳定、可持续的回报和现金流。

We'd focus on stable, sustainable returns and cash flows.

特别是考虑到寿险业务的负债特性，这些负债的期限都极其漫长。

And our liabilities, if you think about especially the life business, are super long term.

但你们确实有年金业务吧？

But you do have annuity

我们没有年金业务，但我们有...

We don't have annuities, but we have

不是年金，我用词不当，这句话需要收回。

Not annuities, I'm using the wrong word, so I'm gonna have to pull that out.

你们有生命预期表，所以能大致掌握...

You you have life expectancy tables, so you have some sense of what

完全正确。

you're Exactly.

寿险公司能够预估：'我们未来将面临这么多负债'。

Life insurers have a sense of, hey, we have this much of a future liability.

这是合同规定的。

It's contractual.

没错。

Exactly.

未来二十、二十五、三十年的情况。

Twenty, twenty five, thirty years down the road.

我们无法预知每个人的离世时间，但通过足够大的群体，我们基本能预估未来负债。

We don't know who's gonna pass away when, but with a large enough group, we can more or less have a sense of future liabilities.

不。

No.

不。

No.

我们对未来负债已有相当把握，但还需确保投资组合能抵御周期波动。

We have a we have a decent sense of of future liabilities, but we also need to make sure we have a portfolio that's resilient across cycles.

第二大支柱是资产负债管理，对吧？

The second pillar is asset liability management, right?

既然了解负债结构，就必须确保资产在币种、久期和流动性上与之匹配。

So because we have a view on our liability profile, we need to make sure we match our assets on a currency, duration, and liquidity basis.

因此投资策略与资产负债表另一端的动态紧密相连。

So the strategy is very intricately linked with what's happening on the other side of the balance sheet.

第三大支柱是资本效率与多元化。

And then the third pillar is capital efficiency and diversification.

我认为这是与其他机构投资者的重大差异之一。

I think that is one of the big differences with other institutional investors.

我们受到监管并采用风险资本制度，这意味着我们持有某些高波动性资产类别的成本非常高，比如股票或高收益债券。

We are regulated and we have a risk based capital regime, which means that the cost that we have for holding certain higher volatility asset classes is very high, such as equities or high yield.

这意味着我们在风险调整基础上实现回报最大化。

And that means that we maximize return on a risk adjusted basis.

因此这是在每单位资本基础上最大化风险调整后的回报。

So it's maximizing risk adjusted return per unit of capital.

这很合理。

That makes sense.

当我们讨论私募股权时，我考虑到了那些未来负债。

When we were talking about private equity, I was thinking about those future liabilities.

很多人都意识到私募股权往往有五到七年的非流动性期，但我想你可以采用阶梯式或错开式配置，这样当未来负债出现时总有基金到期。

A lot of people realize private equity tends to be illiquid for five or seven years at a time, but I would imagine that you could ladder or stagger that so there's always some fund coming up when a future liability arises.

虽然可能有五到七年的非流动性期，但你考虑的是未来二三十甚至四十年。

It may be illiquid for five years or seven years, but you're talking about twenty, thirty, forty years in the future.

在寿险方面。

On the life side.

我的意思是，我们还有财产和意外险业务，这个...

I mean, we also have a property and casualty business, is much

随机的？

Random?

是的。

Yeah.

嗯，这是每年续保的，而且与自然灾害的发生情况相关。

Well, it's annual renewal, and it's a function of what happens with natural catastrophes.

所以无论你遭遇飓风还是地震，这项业务每年都会续约。

So whether you have a hurricane or an earthquake, but that business renews every year.

所以它的尾巴非常短。

So it's a very short tail.

从负债端来看，如今自然灾害不仅更频繁，而且似乎毫无规律可循。

The liability side of that, it feels these days like natural catastrophes are not just more frequent but so random.

我不确定是我们更关注这些事件了，还是它们确实发生得更频繁了。

I don't know if we're just paying more attention to them or if they're actually happening more frequently.

当飓风、龙卷风或山火这类事件的发生显得随机时，你如何管理这类未来负债？

How do you manage around having that sort of future liability when it kind of feels a little random when a hurricane hits or tornado hits, a wildfire happens.

这些灾害总像是凭空出现的。

All these things just seem to come out of nowhere.

嗯，所以我认为这就是为什么资产端的流动性和稳定性要素如此重要。

Well, so I think that's why, the whole element of liquidity and stability is so important on the asset side.

我们

We

必须构建一个无论周期如何、无论发生什么都能持续的投资组合，这意味着我们需要持有比第一眼印象更多的流动性。

need to have a sustainable portfolio regardless of cycle and regardless of what happens, which means we need to hold more liquidity than you would think at first glance.

而且我们需要一个能覆盖负债的投资组合。

And we need to have a portfolio that can cover liability.

绝不能出现这种情况：当飓风来袭导致理赔，人们等着赔款重建屋顶时，我们却说很抱歉，但市场上没有

So it cannot be the case that if a hurricane hits and we have claims and people are waiting to get paid to rebuild their roof, we say we're sorry, but there is We're market not

太多替代方案，我们资金被锁定了，我们

lot of alternatives, we're locked up, we

无能为力。

can't help.

确实如此。

Exactly.

所以你需要真正关注的是什么，保持这一点。

So you And need to what really about, keep that

在

in

你知道，在美国，我认为瑞士再保险主要以一家大型再保险公司而闻名。

you know, in The US, I think Swiss Re is known primarily as a giant reinsurer.

同样的情况显然，你永远不知道什么时候某家保险公司会对其再保险保单提出索赔。

Same situation obviously, you never know when some insurance company gets to make a claim on their reinsurance policy.

我假设稳定性、可持续性和流动性对那些未来的负债也非常重要。

I'm gonna assume that having stability, sustainability and liquidity is really important for those future liabilities as well.

不。

No.

不。

No.

绝对正确。

Absolutely.

我的意思是，我们最终是保险公司的保险公司。

I mean, we are ultimately the insurer of insurance companies.

嗯。

Mhmm.

我们为尾部风险提供保险。

We insure the tail.

所以每当你翻开报纸看到重大事件时

So every time you open the paper and there's a big event

嗯。

Mhmm.

你应该想到瑞士再保险及其影响。

You should think of Swiss Re and what the impact is.

无论是苏伊士运河堵塞、大地震，还是飞机无法归还给俄罗斯的租赁方，所有这些宏观大事件最终都会冲击再保险业。

So whether there is a, you know, the Suez Canal is blocked or there's a big earthquake or the airplanes have been, cannot be returned to the lessors in Russia, all of these macro big events ultimately hit reinsurance.

或者发生大流行病导致东京奥运会延期，这都是我们再保险层面的问题。所以

Or if there's a big pandemic and the Tokyo Olympics are delayed, That is our reinsurance level So

这很有趣，因为你在私募股权领域投入了大量时间，但听起来瑞士再保险内部运作会少些另类投资，多些流动性管理。

it's interesting because you spend so much time in private equity, but it sounds like what Swiss Re does internally is gonna be a little less alternative focused, a little more liquidity focused.

这样说准确吗？

Is that a fair statement?

不，完全正确。

No, absolutely.

而且，如果你看我们的投资组合，85%是固定收益。

And, if you look at our portfolio, we are 85% fixed income.

哦，真的假的。

Oh, no kidding.

其中一半是政府债券。

Of which half is government bonds.

嗯哼。

Uh-huh.

我们用政府债券来匹配负债。

And we use government bonds to match liabilities.

这是我们匹配负债的无风险方式。

That is our risk free way of matching liabilities.

其余部分则是企业信贷和私人债务。

And then the rest is corporate credit and private debt.

私人债务是我们长期参与的资产类别之一，但我们现在看到了很多机会。

And private debt has been one of the asset classes that we have participated in for a long time, but where we're seeing a lot of opportunity.

如果说85%是固定收益，其余是私募股权、上市股票，我们还有一些少数股权以及房地产。

So if you say 85% fixed income, the rest is private equity, listed equity, we have some minority positions and then real estate.

这真的非常有意思。

That's that's really fascinating.

我没想到会有这么多投资在政府债券上，但我想如果你需要流动性和稳定性，尽管现在十年期收益率是多少来着？

I wouldn't have guessed so much were in, government bonds, but I guess if you want liquid and you want stable and you want despite what's the ten year now?

4.5%？

Four and a half percent?

那还不错。

That's not so bad.

考虑到通胀率是2.5%，就不算太好了。

Well, with inflation two and a half percent, it's not so good.

是啊。

Yeah.

那么你对回报怎么看？

So what do you how do you think about the return?

这其实更多是关于跑赢通胀，而非追求超越市场的回报。

It's it's really more about staying ahead of inflation than it is about generating market beating returns.

这样公平吗？

Is that is that fair?

嗯，正如我提到的，我们确实专注于长期价值创造，对吧？

Well, you wanna so as as I mentioned, we, we do focus on long term value creation, Right?

再想想我们的优化函数，大多数机构投资者关注的是经济回报。

And if you think about, again, our optimizing function, most institutional investors focus on economic returns.

我们既关注经济回报也关注会计回报，需要始终在这两者间取得平衡。

We focus on economic returns and accounting returns, and we always need to strike that balance of

请定义会计回报与经济回报的区别。

Define accounting returns versus economic returns.

经济回报是指，比如你持有一只债券，即使它能产生收益，但如果市价下跌...

So economic returns is, you know, if you have a bond and, you know, the market value of that bond moves in a negative direction even if it pays you a yield.

总体上你可能因持有该头寸而损失经济价值。

Net net, you might be losing economic value on holding that position.

根据国际财务报告准则，企业债券的市价波动不会计入损益表。

In IFRS, if you hold a corporate bond, the market movements do not go through P and L.

对。

Right.

但到期时你最终会按面值收回本金

It But you'll eventually get par when it

因为我们持有至到期。

Because we hold it to maturity.

对。

Right.

正是。

Exactly.

好吧。

Alright.

所以影响我们IFRS结果的只是该债券的收益率，而非市场波动。

So what features into our IFRS result is only the yield on that bond, not the market movement.

现在我们身处2025年，仍在争论美联储是否会降息。

So here we are in 2025, we're still debating whether or not the Fed is gonna cut.

作为首席投资官，你会多关注那些围绕美联储是否降息、按兵不动或点阵图预测的噪音吗？

How much attention do you pay as as chief chief investment officer to all of the noise around, will the Fed cut, will they not cut, are they staying put, oh, here comes the dot plot.

央行活动周边的这些信息到底有多嘈杂和/或无足轻重？

Like how noisy and or insignificant is everything around central bank activity?

我们每年伊始都会重点预测市场走向，确定基准线和情景分析。

We start the year always with highlighting where we think markets will go and what is our baseline and what are our scenarios.

当然，美联储的决策会影响市场、估值和利率。

So of course, what the Fed will do impacts markets, impacts valuations, impacts interest rates.

所以我们自然会关注。

So of course we follow it.

我们是长期投资者。

We are long term investors.

所以我们试图——有时候可以说是痴迷地跟踪市场新闻——同时努力将噪音与我们真正需要做的事情区分开来。

So we try to while we I'd say sometimes obsessively follow the market news, we we try to separate the noise from what we really need to do.

你们在私募信贷还没像最近这样火爆之前就已经涉足这个领域了。

You guys were in private credit before it became very popular as it seems to have done recently.

在什么情况下这会变成一个有点拥挤的交易？考虑到瑞士再保险在这个领域的规模和历史，你们有偏好的投资方向，比如喜欢的基金、偏好的私募信贷机构。

At what point does that become, a little bit of a crowded trade or given the size and and the history of Swiss Re in this space, you have your favorite places to play in, you know the funds you like, the private credit shops you like.

你们如何看待过去五年私募信贷的变化？

Like how are you looking at the change in private credit over the past five years?

这对你们的投资策略产生了怎样的影响？

How is that affecting your investment strategy?

最近私募信贷经常出现在新闻里。

Private credit is in the news a lot these days.

实际上私募信贷并不是单一的资产类别。

The reality is that private credit is not one asset class.

它有很多很多不同的类型。

There are many, many flavors.

有些私募信贷更像是投资级别的，比如高级担保贷款。

And you have private credit that is mostly IG like, investment grade like, senior secured loans.

也有些风险相当高的资产类别。

You have some pretty speculative asset classes.

而瑞士再保险一直专注于前者。

And Swiss Re has been focusing on the former.

所以我们开始构建并以更直接的方式参与这类资产。

So we started building and we play in that asset class in a more direct way.

我们直接向项目提供基础设施贷款，并对每笔贷款进行承销。

So we provide infrastructure loans directly to projects and we underwrite each of those loans.

我们对质量有着相当高的标准，同时也关注私人债务溢价。

So we have a pretty high bar of what we see as quality and also the private debt premium.

这就是这些贷款提供的超出利差的溢价，以便将其纳入我们的投资组合。

So that's the premium above the spread that those loans provide, in order to put those in our portfolio.

我刚才提到十年期利率现在大约是4.5%。

So so I mentioned the ten years about four and a half percent today.

回到2022年之前，当时政府债券的收益率只有一半甚至更低，在1%通胀和2.5%收益率的时代你们是怎么运作的？

Go back, before 2022 and and the yield on government bonds were, you know, half or or worse, what were what were you guys doing when we were in an era of 1% inflation and two and a half percent yield?

这样能达到你们的预期目标吗？

Does that get you to where you want to be?

还是说这仍然给瑞士再保险这样的大型保险公司带来了问题？

Or is that still, did that raise problems for big insurers like Swiss Re?

我认为这是整个行业面临的问题，尤其是保险业，因为我们高度依赖固定收益。

I think this was a problem for the whole industry, especially for the insurance industry, given how much reliance we have on fixed income.

这在某种程度上促使我们开始关注私人债务等领域。

And that was the driver in a way for us to start looking at areas like private debt.

因为在那里你可以进行定制化交易，而且肯定能获得比公司债券领域更高的溢价。

Because there you have bespoke transactions and you can definitely earn a premium versus what you get even in the corporate bond space.

但说实话，在这种情况下你就是在追逐收益率。

But I mean, I'm not gonna lie, you're looking to you're reaching for yield, right, in those in those moments.

金融危机时期人们那种盲目追逐收益率的行为，与我们看到的经过严格尽职调查、杠杆率和风险特征完全不同的高级担保私人债务是两回事——后者不会像证券化的垃圾抵押贷款那样危险。

Well, there's reaching for yield like people did during the financial crisis, and then there's senior secured privately due diligence debt that didn't carry the same leverage and risk characteristics like we saw with securitized junk mortgages.

那是个截然不同的世界。

That was a very different world.

但我从你这里得到的核心观点是：美联储及其他央行长达二十年的零利率政策，确实是推动私人债务、私人信贷、私募股权以及大量替代主权债券和其他发行产品的关键驱动力。

But I guess the insight that I'm picking up from you is, hey, two decades of 0% interest rate from the US central bank and other central banks really is the key driver of what's expanded private debt, private credit, private equity, and a whole slew of alternatives that substituted for sovereign treasuries and other issuances.

这个观点合理吗？

Fair insight?

不，这是个合理的观点。

No, it's a fair insight.

我认为我们有一个担忧是，这个领域真正爆发式增长是在金融危机之后。

And I think if there's one concern that we have is if you look at when this space really exploded, it was after the financial crisis.

而这个市场尚未经历过真正的考验。

And there hasn't been a test of the market.

自2010年以来，还没有出现过真正的信贷危机来检验这些产品的质量。

So since 2010, there hasn't been a real credit crisis to really test the quality of these of these products.

而且我认为...这些新产品一直在不断涌入市场。

And I think they they have you know, new new products have kept coming to the market.

嗯。

Mhmm.

有些产品的历史非常短暂。

Some with a a very short history.

我们仍不清楚私人信贷在更持久的危机会如何反应。

And we still don't know how private credit will actually react in a more prolonged crisis.

2022年对国债来说是下跌15%的一年，股市更是下跌超过20%。

Well, 2022 was pretty much a down 15% year for treasuries and down 20 plus for equities.

这有点不寻常。

That's kind of unusual.

我想你得追溯到1981年才能看到两者在同一年都出现两位数下滑的情况。

I think you have to go back to 1981 to have them both down double digits in the same year.

但我们没有违约。

But we had no defaults.

所以我们的投资组合没有违约。

So our portfolio had no defaults.

因此事实是，会计上持有至到期意味着我们不在乎那些日常的波动噪音。

So the fact that and the accounting hold till maturity means we don't care what the noisy day to day stuff is.

我们会持有直到到期，所以

We're in it until this matures, so

我们当然关心质量，因为真正伤害我们的是违约和评级下调。

Well, we care about quality because what hurts us is defaults and re ratings.

所以你们既没有违约，也没有评级下调？

So you had no defaults, any re ratings?

我们确实经历过几次评级调整，但我们也做中型市场贷款业务。

We've had some re ratings, but we also have middle market lending.

因此我们预期会看到一些波动。

So we have been expecting to see some wobble.

对。

Right.

但不算太严重。

But not so much.

而且并不多。

And not so much.

是的。

Yeah.

我认为你总是把好的结果归功于技能，而实际上其中部分可能归因于运气。

And I think and you always attribute good outcomes to skill when maybe some of it is attributable to luck.

但到目前为止，我们非常保守的承保策略已经取得了回报。

But so far, our very conservative underwriting has paid off.

真的非常非常有趣。

Really, really very interesting.

接下来，我们将继续与瑞士再保险集团首席投资官Alina Penneva的对话，探讨当前市场状况和固定收益领域。

Coming up, we continue our conversation with Alina Penneva, Group Chief Investment Officer for Swiss Re, discussing the state of markets and fixed income today.

我是Carol Masser。

I'm Carol Masser.

我是Tim Stenevek，邀请您收听彭博商业周刊每日播客。

And I'm Tim Stenevek inviting you to join us for the Bloomberg Businessweek daily podcast.

现在每天，我们都会为您带来杂志的深度报道，帮助全球领导者保持前瞻。

Now every day, we are bringing you reporting from the magazine that helps global leaders stay ahead.

我们提供关于人物、公司和塑造当今复杂经济趋势的深刻见解。

We've got insight on the people, the companies, and trends that are shaping today's complex economy.

没错，Tim。

That's right, Tim.

我们实时覆盖全球商业、金融、科技新闻，并对美国市场收盘进行完整报道。

We're all over global business, finance, tech news, all as it is happening in real time, and we've got complete coverage of The US market close.

不得不说，基本上，如果它影响金融市场，如果它正在影响现有的趋势和舆论走向，我们就会跟进

Gotta say, basically, if it impacts financial markets, if it's impacting trends and narratives that are out there, we are on

它。

it.

我们做这件事也乐在其中。

We also have a lot of fun doing it.

《彭博商业周刊》还通过与专家嘉宾的对话，为您带来头条新闻背后的深度分析。

Bloomberg Businessweek also brings you the analysis behind the headlines through conversations with our expert guests.

我们每个工作日都会进行实时直播，然后在每日播客中为您带来最精彩的分析。

And we are doing this all live each weekday, and then we bring you the best analysis in our daily podcast.

在YouTube、苹果、Spotify或您常听的任何平台搜索《彭博商业周刊》。

Search for Bloomberg Businessweek on YouTube, Apple, Spotify, or anywhere else you listen.

下班回家路上收听，补上工作日错过的精彩对话。

Check it out on your way home from work to catch up on the conversations that you miss during the business day.

周末时收听，完整回顾您的商业周报。

And on the weekend, check it out for a complete wrap up of your business week.

这就是《彭博商业周刊》每日播客。

That's the Bloomberg Business Week daily podcast.

我是卡罗尔·马瑟。

I'm Carol Masser.

我是蒂姆·斯塔诺瓦克。

And I'm Tim Stanovac.

立即订阅，在您获取播客的任何平台均可收听。

Subscribe today wherever you get your podcasts.

现在是2025年。

So it's twenty twenty five.

这一年已经过去了一半。

The year is just about halfway done.

今年有点疯狂。

Kinda been a wacky year.

2025年全球经济最让你意外的是什么？

What what surprised you most about the global economy in 2025?

我得说年初时市场情绪非常乐观。

So I have to say coming into the year, sentiment was very bullish.

一月份我在达沃斯，那里总有个玩笑说达沃斯听到的都会反着发生。

I was in Davos in January, and there's always the joke of whatever you hear in Davos, the reverse will happen.

在哪儿听到的？

Whatever you hear where?

在达沃斯，世界经济论坛上。

In Davos, at the World Economic Forum.

哦，达沃斯啊。

Oh, Davos.

好吧。

Okay.

对，对。

Yeah, yeah.

达沃斯总是不经意间就预测到市场顶点和底部。

So, Davos has a tendency to pick tops and bottoms accidentally.

确实如此。

Exactly.

但在一月份时，市场情绪还极度乐观。

But back in January, the sentiment was super bullish.

它

It

完全围绕着美国例外论。

was all about US exceptionalism.

当时全是关于AI以及AI如何将收益推向月球的讨论。

It was all about AI and how AI will drive returns to the moon.

如今市场情绪已大幅转变。

The sentiment has vastly shifted.

今年我们已经多次目睹情绪和叙事反转的速度之快，在某种程度上确实令人惊讶。

So just the speed with which we saw sentiment reverse and the narrative reverse this year a few times now has been to some degree surprising.

公平地说，尽管美国总统整个成年生涯都在谈论关税——这是他最爱的词汇，自称'关税先生'。

To be fair, as much as the US president has been talking about tariffs his whole adult life, it's his favorite word, call me tariff man.

要知道，所有人都见证过他的第一个任期。

You know, I believe that everybody saw his first term.

好吧，我们会承受10%的关税。

Alright, we'll get some 10% tariffs.

我们还能应付。

We can live with that.

这感觉像是集体对4月2日发生之事缺乏预见性。

It it feels like a collective failure of imagination as to what took place on April 2.

我实在不愿称之为解放日，因为唯一被解放的是一群人从他们的钱中被解放出来。

I'm I'm loath to call it liberation day because the only thing that was liberated were a bunch of people were liberated from their money.

但除此之外，大家似乎对此都感到惊讶，我们本应如此吗？

But other than that, everybody seemed to be surprised by that and and should we have been?

我们本应预料到这一点吗？

Should we have expected that?

或者，大家是否都明白为何要插手这件事？

Or, just collectively knowing why would you mess with this?

目前进展非常顺利。

This is going so well.

这似乎是华尔街的共识。

Seems to be the Wall Street consensus.

嘿，你继承了一个强劲的经济体，股市也在上涨，就别去干预了。

Hey, you've inherited a great economy and the stock market's trending higher, just leave it alone.

这在欧洲看来会是什么感觉？

Like how is that perceived from Europe?

我倒希望我们能说感到非常惊讶。

So I wish I said that we were super surprised.

我的意思是，我们总是倾向于有点悲观，嗯。

I mean, we do always tend to be a little bit glass half empty Mhmm.

因为你知道，我们是一家风险公司，一家风险知识公司。

Because, you know, we are a risk company, we're a risk knowledge company.

债券投资者总是关注本金的返还，而非资本的回报。

Bond investors are always about return of capital, not return on capital.

所以你是悲观主义者（半杯空），股权方是乐观主义者（半杯满），但即便如此，这确实是个令人惊讶的年份。

So you're the glass half empty, the equity side is the glass half full, but even given that, it still feels like this was really a surprising year.

我认为4月2日公布的规模令人震惊。

I think the extent of the announcement on April 2 was a shock.

我不这么认为，我是说，如果你还记得那天，人们无法理解图表上显示的一些数字的规模，以及公式的含义和它真正意味着什么。

I don't think that, I mean, if you remember that day, people couldn't understand the magnitude of some of the numbers that were shown on that chart, and what the formula was, and what it really meant.

但我认为发展方向是，如果你也听了总统在选举前的讲话，我们预计关税会有一定程度的提高。

But I think the direction of travel was, If you had listened to also what the president said before the election, we expected some level of increase in tariffs.

我认为只是沟通方式和执行过程让包括我们在内的许多人措手不及。

I think it was just the way it was communicated and the execution of it that caught many including us off guard.

这似乎有点笨拙，尤其是当我们看到美联储如何费尽心思不让市场感到意外时。

It seemed to be a little ham fisted, especially when we see how the pains the Federal Reserve takes to not surprise the markets.

嘿，加息要来了，还有几个月，做好准备。

Hey, there's a rate increase coming, couple of months, get ready.

嘿，还有两个月，看看CPI，看看PCE，然后所有美联储理事都会出去在各个俱乐部发表讲话。

Hey, we're two months away, look at CPI, look at look at PCE, and then all the Fed governors go out and they all speak at the various clubs.

就像，美联储真的费尽心思不让市场感到意外。

Like, the Fed really takes pains to not surprise the market.

感觉这像是故意给市场一个意外。

It kind of felt like this was a purposeful surprise to the markets.

这产生了多大的影响？

How big of an impact did that have?

我认为对我们来说好消息是我们没有持有太多上市股票。

I think the good news for us was that we don't hold a lot of listed equities.

对。

Right.

对吗？

Right?

因此这更像是一个机会，让我们思考何时在市场增加敞口而非施压的策略。

So it was more an opportunity to think about our playbook of when do we add exposure in the market versus stressing.

实际上，回顾那大约一个月的极端波动期，我们并未做出太多急转弯的决策。

So we actually, if we look back at that period of about a month where you had extreme volatility, we didn't make a lot of sharp turns.

关键在于，我们是否仍对当前持有的投资组合感到安心？

It was about, are we still comfortable with the portfolio we are holding?

我们以谨慎乐观的态度迈入这一年。

We had come into the year with a cautious optimism.

对吧？

Right?

但我认为重点在于'谨慎'二字。

But I think the emphasis is on cautious.

而且我们对账面上承担的风险感到放心。

And we felt comfortable holding the risk that we had in the book.

与此同时，市场的韧性令我们感到惊讶。

At the same time, we were surprised by the resilience of the market.

对吗？

Right?

我是说，这次市场反应非常剧烈，但复苏速度也快如闪电。

I mean, this was a very sharp reaction, but the recovery was also lightning fast.

很高兴你用了‘韧性’这个词，因为这个词最近频繁出现。

So I'm glad you used the word resilience because that's the word that keeps coming up.

经济展现韧性，消费支出显现韧性，即便消费者信心略显疲软，股市和债市也双双表现出韧性。

Resilience in the economy, resilience in consumer spending, even if their consumer sentiment is kind of weak, and resilience in both equity and bond markets.

看起来无论向这个经济体、这个市场投掷什么，至少到目前为止，它总能重整旗鼓继续前行。

It seems that you can throw anything at this economy, in this market, and at least so far, it brushes itself up often and just keeps going.

这有多令人意外？

How surprising has that been?

我是说，看看估值，看看基本面，确实出人意料对吧？

I mean, you look at the valuations, if you look at the fundamentals, it's surprising, right?

因为你会预期——我是说，你看到消费者正在放缓。

Because you would expect I mean, you're seeing the consumer slowing down.

利率仍处于高位。

You still have high interest rates.

估值水平，尤其在美国，已处于历史最高十分位数区间。

Valuations, especially in The US, are in their top deciles.

而且前景看起来不像几个月前那么乐观。

And outlook is not looking as promising as a few months back.

所以从纯粹的基本面角度来看，这很令人意外。

So I think from a pure fundamentals perspective, it's surprising.

但市场走势——你懂的，市场比我更精明。

But markets are not you know better than me.

市场并不完全由基本面驱动。

Markets are not driven purely by fundamentals.

许多技术性因素维持了市场的韧性。

There are a lot of technicals that have maintained the resilience of the market.

首先，市面上有大量资金存在。

First of all, there's just a lot of money out there.

大量资本在四处流动。

Amounts of capital sloshing around.

而可供投资的资产却并不多。

And there's not that many assets to invest in.

因此，如果将美股市场规模与需要投资的资金量相比，就会出现供需失衡的情况，这基本上使得估值保持在历史平均水平之上。

So if you look at the size of The US stock market versus the amount of money that needs to be invested, you have a bit of a supply demand imbalance, which basically is keeping valuations higher than historically.

主权债券市场不也是如此吗？不仅美国，全球范围内真正优质的主权债券（至少是A评级债券）确实不多。

And isn't the same true in sovereign treasuries, not just The US, but there really isn't a lot of sovereign paper, at least A rated paper around.

几乎可以说主权债券存在短缺现象。

It's almost as if there's a shortfall of sovereign treasury paper.

而且，如果你考虑投资级债券（IG信用债），甚至可以认为另一个意外是高质量信用债的利差已经变得如此之窄。

Well, and if you think about also IG credit, investment grade credit, you could almost argue The other surprise has been how tight spreads have become in high quality credit.

没错。

Right.

如果承担风险却得不到相应回报，何必冒险呢？

Why go risky if you're not getting paid to take that risk?

但想想发行这些债券的公司——这可能听起来有些争议。

But if you think about what companies are issuing that credit, these are maybe this will sound controversial.

其中部分公司比某些政府更值得信赖。

Some of these companies are more creditworthy than some governments.

从某种程度上说，你可以想象一种情况，即某些投资级信贷甚至变得更加紧缩。

So in a way, you could imagine a situation where some investment grade credit even goes tighter.

他们So可能会让微软疯狂，可能出现负利差。

They So could get Microsoft crazy could have negative spread.

对。

Right.

微软比许多大国更具信用价值。

Microsoft is more credit worthy than a lot of large nations out there.

没错。

Exactly.

那个那个那个

That that that's

相当 我认为这正是保持股市高位和利差如此紧缩的原因。

pretty And that is what I think has been keeping, you know, both equities higher and spreads as tight as they are.

你提到，我们处于美国估值的前十分位，但近一年来，欧洲的表现一直非常低调地超越，至少在2024年末段如此，但在2025年更为明显。

So you mentioned, we're in the top decile evaluation in The US, but for almost a year now, Europe has been outperforming very quietly, at least for the first, for the for the tail end of 2024, but a little more visibly in 2025.

欧洲的表现显著优于美国。

Europe has been significantly outperforming The US.

你知道，人们一直在等待这种均值回归发生，这种领导地位的交换。

You know, people have been waiting for this mean reversion to take place, this leadership swap.

十年来。

For a decade.

它似乎终于要发生了。

It finally seems to be happening.

首先，你认为这是为什么？

First, why do you think that is?

这纯粹是估值问题，还是政策、美元或资本从美国撤离导致的？

Is it strictly a function of valuation or are some of these things being driven by policy, by The US Dollar, by a return of capital away from The United States.

是什么导致了世界其他地区的这种优异表现？

What is leading to this outperformance elsewhere in the world?

我想先说，欧洲仍有很多追赶工作要做。

So I wanna start by saying that Europe still has a lot of catching up to do.

确实。

For sure.

如果你看欧洲的市盈率，现在处于15倍左右。

So if you look at multiples in Europe, they're in the mid teens now.

美国的市盈率在25倍左右，低至中25倍。

Multiples in The US are mid-20s, low mid-20s.

所以估值差距仍然相当大。

So there's still a pretty big valuation gap.

其中部分原因只是市场结构问题。

And some of that is just the constitution of the market.

美国有更多高科技、高增长企业。

You have more high-tech, more high growth.

但部分原因可以说是欧洲的惩罚性因素，考虑到所有监管、增长缓慢以及欧洲面临的挑战。

But some of it is kind of a European penalty, just given all the regulation and slow growth and challenges that Europe has been facing.

是的，我们在欧洲股市的表现比去年好，也比过去十年好。

So yes, we have done better in Europe in the equity space than in the last year than in the last 10.

但我认为差距仍然相当显著。

But I think the gap is still pretty meaningful.

我认为某种程度上存在一种乐观看法，即欧洲确实需要加快投资步伐，无论是军事还是基础设施领域。

And I think there's some level of optimism that Europe will need to really speed up investments, whether it's military or infrastructure.

我认为欧洲已经意识到，为了在这个新的地缘政治环境中‘生存’，他们需要齐心协力，开始专注于投资并略微减轻我们在大陆企业身上施加的监管负担。

I think that Europe has woken up to the fact that in order to quote unquote survive in this new geopolitical environment, they need to get their act together and they need to start focusing on investing and reducing a bit, the regulatory burden that, that we've had on companies on the continent.

在欧洲大陆这种情况更为严重，但另一方面，我清晰记得2000年互联网泡沫破灭期间，去伦敦、布鲁塞尔时，纽约那边压力非常大。

It's much greater on the continent, but the flip side of that is, I vividly recall in 2000, right in the middle of the .com implosion, going to London, going to Brussels and New York was very stressed out.

嘿，我可能会失业。

Hey, I lose my job.

我会失去医疗保险。

I lose my healthcare.

如果我孩子需要做手术怎么办？

What happens if my kid needs a surgery?

在欧洲，人们还在咖啡馆里喝着卡布奇诺抽着烟。

In Europe, people were still having cappuccino and cigarettes in the cafes.

感觉氛围轻松得多，压力也小得多。

There was, it just felt a lot looser and a lot less stressful.

这是否单纯是生活质量的取舍——欧洲人更懂得生活？

Is that simply a quality of life trade off that, hey, the Europeans know how to live.

是啊，美国人能创建快速增长的科技公司，但我们拥有更好的生活方式。

Yeah, the Americans can make fast growth tech companies, but we have a better lifestyle.

你如何回应这种观点？

How do you respond to that sort of position?

我认为欧洲人对美好生活的期待与美国人的定义可能大不相同。

I think the European expectation for what a good life is is probably quite a bit different from the American definition.

我觉得有些人将政府服务的某些方面视为基本需求。

I think that there's some people see certain elements of government service as basic.

无论是医疗还是教育。

So be it healthcare, education.

我可以每年花一千法郎送孩子去瑞士上大学，用美国学费的零头就能获得MIT级别的教育，这被视为社会公益。

I can send my kids to a Swiss university for, I don't know, a thousand francs a year, and you can get an MIT type education for a small fraction of what you pay in And The US, that's considered the social good.

我认为

I think

但是——税收要高得多。

that- But the taxes are much higher.

所以你

So you

为此缴纳的税款更高，但人们珍视这种社会保障网络。

pay Taxes for it are higher, but there is this social web that people value.

你去大多数欧洲城市，街上几乎看不到无家可归者。

You go to most European cities, you don't see homeless people on the street to the degree.

你不会遇到像美国那样的一些极端情况。

You don't have some of these extreme situations that you have in The US.

问题在于，这个平衡点应该在哪里？

And the question is how far is, you know, what's the right balance?

所以我并不是说这一切都好，对吧？

So I'm not saying that it's all good, right?

没错。

Right.

因为欧洲也有这样一代人，他们期待这些却不理解背后的代价。

Because you also have a generation in Europe that expects this but doesn't understand the cost that at.

他们既追求某种生活方式和工作与生活的平衡，同时又缺乏维持经济成功所需的工作 ethic。

And expects a lifestyle and expects work life balance but at the same time, you know, doesn't have the work ethic required to keep the economy successful.

我们录制这段内容时，俄乌战争仍在持续。

So we're recording this, the Russian Ukraine war is still ongoing.

以色列与哈马斯的战争现已演变为以色列与伊朗的战争。

The Israel Hamas war has now become an Israel Iran war.

所有这些地缘政治紧张局势和格局变化正在发生。

There are all these geopolitical, tensions and shifts taking place.

当你考虑为未来十到二十年进行投资时，如何看待更广泛的地缘政治局势？

How do you think about what's going on in the broader geopolitical area, when you're thinking about making investments for ten, twenty years down the road?

这很重要吗？还是说，反正年年都有战争，我们只能习惯应对？

Is it significant or is it something that, hey, there's a war every year, it's just something we have to deal with?

如果回顾历史，研究战争对市场的影响，结论是：短期确实会有冲击。

So if you look at history and what impact wars have on markets, the conclusion is that, yes, there's a short term shock.

但长期来看，甚至几个月内，这种影响就会消散。

But in the long term, even within a few months, that dissipates.

因此根据近期地缘政治形势做投资决策，恐怕不是最佳策略。

So making near term investment decisions driven by geopolitics is probably not the best investment strategy.

至少可以说，确实如此。

No, to say the least.

我认为关键在于这些事件背后所反映的深层问题。

I think what matters is what is the symptom behind these events.

因此这些战争是逆全球化现象的表现。

So these wars are a symptom of the fact that we have deglobalization.

我们正处在不同势力范围的变动中。

We are moving in different spheres of influence.

而瑞士再保险是一家真正全球化的公司。

And Swiss Re is a truly global company.

我们带来的价值在于能够规避尾部风险，因为我们在全球层面实现了多种尾部风险的分散。

So the value we bring is that we can ensure tail risks because we can diversify a lot of tail risks at a global level.

我们为加利福尼亚和日本的地震、佛罗里达的飓风以及大流行病提供再保险。

We reinsure earthquakes in California and in Japan and hurricanes in Florida and pandemics.

这些风险在全球层面上是互不相关的。

And those risks are uncorrelated at the global level.

要提供这种额外保障，必须具备全球化思维。

And in order to provide that extra cover, you need to have a global mindset.

在当前全球化程度不如十年前的环境下，我们需要思考这对真正全球化企业的影响。

And in an environment where globalization is no longer what it was ten years ago, one needs to think about what what how does that impact truly global businesses?

所以我们将其视为长期趋势，关注其对投资组合方向的影响，而非受短期事件影响的战术决策。

So so so we think about it as long term trend and impact on where we think the portfolio needs to go versus making tactical decisions influenced by short term events.

既然你是长期思考者，不做战术博弈，但仍会面临这些颠覆性变化、风险和机遇。

So given that, that you're a long term thinker, you're not playing the tactical game, you still end up with these disruptions and risks and opportunities.

你如何评估当前市场状况？

How do you assess the state of the market today?

你看到了哪些机会？

Where do you see opportunities?

你看到了哪些风险？

Where do you see risks?

所以我认为这可能与我的私募市场背景有关。

So I would say that and and maybe that's my private markets background.

嗯。

Mhmm.

我仍然看好私募市场的机会，部分原因是信息不对称，如果你确实拥有渠道和专业知识，就能为投资组合增值。

I continue to see opportunities in private markets, In part because you have imperfect information, you can actually add value to your portfolio if you really have the channels and expertise.

嗯。

Mhmm.

我认为像基础设施债务这样的领域在未来几年只会增长，因为世界需要更多新基建，而提供贷款和股权的基建公司不仅会发现大量交易机会，还将拥有广阔的发展空间。

I think areas like infrastructure debt are ones that will only grow in the next few years because the world needs a lot more new infrastructure and companies that provide loans but also equity in the infrastructure space will both find a lot of deals but also have a lot of opportunity.

所以你需要从宏观角度思考，资本需求在哪里？

So you need to think of it from a macro perspective of what you know, where is the need for capital?

我们团队是否具备提供针对性解决方案的专业能力？

And can do we have the expertise as a team to provide a solution that is uniquely fitted to that.

你刚才提到了私募股权和私募信贷。

So so you mentioned private equity and private credit.

欧洲央行最近已多次降息。

European Central Bank has cut rates recently a number of times.

这对私募信贷来说是顺风因素吗？

Does that work as a tailwind for for private credit?

这如何影响你在那里的观察？

How how does that impact what you see out there?

对私募股权来说绝对是顺风。

It's definitely a tailwind for private equity.

对吧？

Right?

我们看到的是，自解放日以来，欧洲融资成本实际上下降了20个基点，而美国融资成本却上升了

So what we see is European funding cost has actually fallen 20 basis points since Liberation Day versus in The US funding cost has gone up Fallen

相反，是的。

the other way, yeah.

20个基点。

20 points.

如果你思考私募股权成功的关键，它在于杠杆收购，对吧？

And if you think about what makes private equity successful, it's a leveraged buyout, right?

这些交易的价值核心部分在于杠杆，而较低的利率显然对私募股权领域有利。

That's ultimately part of the value of those transactions is in the leverage part and lower interest rates clearly are beneficial for the private equity space.

我们在美国反复听到的一句话是‘太多不确定性，太多经济不确定性’。

So the phrase we hear and quite honestly hear way too much in The US is so much uncertainty, so much economic uncertainty.

你如何看待美国政策决策的这种模糊性至少对市场和经济前景的影响？

How do you see this lack of clarity at least around policy decisions in The US affecting your outlook for the markets, for the economy?

华盛顿特区这种新政权如何影响全球经济？

How does this sort of new regime in Washington DC affect the global economy?

如果你考虑我们如何制定年度或三年计划，多年来我们一直有一个基准。

So if you think about how we plan on an annual or three year basis, for many years we would have a baseline.

我们认为这种情况有70%的概率会发生，并将基于这一核心情景来配置我们的投资组合和决策。

We would say we think there's a 70% chance that this will happen and we'll set up our portfolio and our decisions based on this core scenario.

此外还有一些尾部情景需要我们评估，我们会观察并思考如何判断我们是否正在进入这些情景。

And then there's some tail scenarios which we will assess and we'll look at know, what are, you know, how could we assess whether we're moving into those scenarios.

目前我们的"基准"概率是40%。

Today, our baseline quote unquote is a 40% odds.

所以我甚至不想称它为基准。

So I don't wanna even call it a baseline.

我们已经从思考基准情景和其他情景，转向思考我们应该预期什么样的结果范围。

And we have moved from thinking in baseline and other scenarios to what is the range of outcomes that we should expect?

我们需要在宏观层面和高频数据层面追踪哪些指标，才能判断是否正从当前认为的情景转向其他情景。

And what do we need to be tracking on the macro side, on kind of the high frequency data side to understand are we moving from the scenario we think we're in right now to something else.

但如果你掌握了这条路径，就能减少意外情况，这是我们采取的一个措施。

But if you have that path, you have fewer surprises, So that's one thing that we have done.

我们每月都会动态评估这些情景的概率。

And we dynamically assess the probabilities of those scenarios on a monthly basis.

我们设有投资委员会，会对15位委员进行问卷调查，询问他们认为各种概率是多少。

We have an investment committee, and we do a survey of 15 investment committee members to say, what do you think the odds are?

这是集体智慧的体现。

It's the wisdom of the crowd's idea.

我们会讨论当前正在向哪个情景发展。

And we discuss in which scenario are we moving?

这就是我们采取的一个措施。

So that's one thing we have done.

我认为这为思考提供了更大的灵活性。

And I think that provides a lot more flexibility in thinking.

第二点是我们会提前考虑风险事件。

And the second is we think ahead of risk events.

如今市场波动性更大，通常在深度回调时人们会感到恐慌，不知道如何解读获得的信息，在决策时陷入瘫痪。

So markets are much more volatile today and typically at the depth of a correction you're scared, you don't know how to interpret the information you're getting and you're paralyzed in making decisions.

因此我们的做法是制定操作手册，明确当市场涨跌到特定水平时，这些就是我们增加风险敞口的点位，随着市场下跌我们会持续加仓，同时也有手册指导我们在市场反弹到何种程度时可能已过度反应，这时就该减仓。

So what we do is we have playbooks to say if the market moves up or down at certain levels this is these are the levels at which we'll add risk this amount of risk and is you know as the market goes down we'll continue to add risk and then we have playbooks to think about okay at what levels if the market recovers has it gone too far and we lighten up on risk.

这些操作手册消除了决策中的情绪和偏见，使得策略执行过程压力大大减轻。

And those playbooks have taken the emotion and the bias out of the decisions and it makes it much much less stressful in a way to execute on strategy.

因为你是在冷静放松时制定的计划，而不是在压力下仓促应对。

Because you have a plan that you created when you were calm and relaxed as opposed to responding when you're stressful.

正常情况下70%的基准线很有趣，但今年更像是40%的基准线。

I'm kind of fascinated by the 70% baseline in normal circumstances, but this year it's more of a 40% baseline.

听起来你是在说尾部风险正在上升。

It sounds like you're saying that tail risk is rising.

这个评估公允吗？

Is that a fair assessment?

是的，这就是所谓的'肥尾效应'。

Yes, this is what you call it, fatter tails.

我们看到更多不确定性意味着结果更难预测。

So we see the, you know, more uncertainty means that it's less clear what will turn out to be.

因此出现更多可能性的情景。

So there are more scenarios that are more likely.

包括在分布尾端出现极端情况的可能性。

Including the possibility of something really extreme on either end of the tail.

确实如此。

Exactly.

我们确实，我的意思是，我们从事的就是风险管理业务。

And we do, I mean, again, we're in the business of risk.

因此我们也会考虑那些极小概率的尾部情景及其对公司业务的影响。

So we also do think about what could be a really, really tail scenario and what that means for our business.

但我们不仅是在资产管理层面这样做，而是整个集团层面都在进行。

But we do it not just at the asset management level, broadly at the group level.

你们

You do

想必是整个保险公司范围内都在进行吧。

it across the entire insurance company, would imagine.

好的，我只有几分钟时间了，让我们直接进入最受欢迎的环节——我们向所有嘉宾提出的经典问题。

Alright, I only have you for a few more minutes, so let's jump to our favorite section, our favorite questions we ask all of our guests.

首先，最近你在看什么或听什么？

Starting with, what are you watching or listening to these days?

是什么让你感到愉悦？

What's keeping you entertained?

我有两个孩子。

So I have two kids.

嗯哼。

Uh-huh.

我试图向他们展示更多，你知道的，有深度的节目内容。

And I try to show them some more, you know, intellectual programming.

没错。

Right.

我们最近在看的是迪士尼的《真实昆虫世界》，如果你知道《虫虫特工队》的话，那是一部迪士尼电影。

And the latest show we've been watching is called the Real Bug's Life on Disney, which is, if you know A Bug's Life, it was a Disney movie.

这个

This

是真实的。

is real.

所以拍摄使用的技术非常惊人，它用超棒的镜头追踪记录不同昆虫在自然环境中的活动，对吧？

So it's amazing technology that's being used to record this, but it follows different insects in their natural environment at a very, with amazing cameras, right?

你能通过微距视角看到，比如蜻蜓如何飞行，如何逃离青蛙或其他天敌。

They have, you basically get a macro view of, you know, how a dragonfly flies and how a dragonfly runs away from frogs or other animals.

这是个非常吸引人的节目。

So it's a fascinating show.

这是电视方面的。

So that's on TV side.

播客方面，《同道中人》。

On podcasts, in good company.

嗯哼。

Uh-huh.

我猜这档播客可能和你们的形成竞争。

I guess this might be a competitive podcast to yours.

是尼古拉·坦甘。

It's Nikolay Tangan.

谁主持的那个？

The who who hosts that?

听起来不错。

That sounds good.

是尼古拉·坦甘。

It's Nikolay Tangan.

他是挪威银行的首席执行官。

He's the CEO of the Nordges Bank.

那是挪威最大的主权财富基金。

So that's the largest sovereign wealth fund in Norway.

而且他们是重要的股权投资方。

And they're a large equity investor.

我会去了解一下。

They I'm going look into that.

听起来很有意思。

That sounds interesting.

他们在某些全球最大企业持有1%到2%的股份，因此能采访这些公司的CEO，讨论总是非常精彩。

They hold 1% or 2% share in some of the So largest gets to interview CEOs of these companies and it's always pretty fascinating discussion.

我一定会去看看。

I'm gonna definitely check that out.

听起来不错。

That sounds good.

请谈谈那些对你职业生涯产生重要影响的导师们。

Tell us about your mentors who helped to shape your career.

最初阶段，毫无疑问是我的祖母。

Early on, it was definitely my grandmother.

她

She

曾经是农学教授，在

was a professor of agronomy back in the

那个年代。

day.

农学。

Agronomy.

农学是农业科学的分支。

Agronomy is the science of agriculture.

她非常关注我的教育，不断鞭策我超越自我，培养正确的道德观。

And she took a keen interest in my education and really pushing me to push myself to do better, to have the right moral compass.

她当年灌输给我的一些人生信条至今仍在影响着我。

So some of the lessons that once instilled in me are still from her time.

后来在贝恩公司时期，有位叫丹·哈斯的合伙人——他是波士顿私募股权业务的创始人之一，我们在苏黎世相识，我还怪他让我2009年来了苏黎世后就永久定居了。

And then during the Bain years, a partner called Dan Haas, who was one of the founders of our private equity practice back in Boston and whom I met in Zurich and who I blame for staying in Zurich permanently after I came in 2009.

但他在我的职业选择、解决问题的方式上给予关键指导，有时只是倾听，确实是位不可多得的人生导师和挚友。

But he really has played a fundamental role in kind of coaching me on both my career moves, on how I approach problems, just listening at times, and really being an invaluable friend and coach.

我们来聊聊书籍吧。

Let's talk about books.

你最喜欢哪些作品？

What are some of your favorites?

你现在在读什么书？

What are you reading right now?

我想说我最喜欢的是《三体》。

I'd say my all time favorite is The Three Body Problem.

这是一个三部曲，作者名字我念错了，是刘慈欣。

It's a trilogy by, now mispronounce the name Luo Tsushin.

对。

Right.

它融合了科幻与历史、哲学、博弈论等各种元素。

And it's sci fi mixed with history, philosophy, game theory, you name it.

不知道你是否熟悉

I don't know if you are familiar with

哦，我非常熟悉这本书，其实我还看了苹果TV改编的剧集。

the Oh, I'm very familiar with the book, and I actually watched the Apple TV series.

那个改编得不太好。

Which is not as good.

嗯，感觉它只是从原著里抽了些皮毛出来。

Well, seems like it just pulls a handful of things out of it.

不过说实话，我开始读第一本书时发现，对于非物理爱好者来说，三体问题确实很难——我们能预测双体运动，但一旦引入第三个天体，结果就变得几乎无限可能，完全无法预知这三个引力体会如何运动。我记得作者是中国人。

Although, to be honest, I started reading the first book and the three body problem for those people who aren't physics nerds are we can predict two bodies, but once you introduce a third body, the range of outcomes are practically infinite and you really have no idea where these three gravitational bodies are going to take but it was, I believe the author is Chinese.

原著是用中文写的，后来才被翻译。

It was originally written in Chinese and then translated.

美国版的翻译确实有点难啃。

The US translation is a little challenging to fight your way through.

尤其是第二本，

Especially the second book,

我也这么觉得。

I'd say.

是啊。

Yeah.

所以我觉得第一本很难读。

So I found the first book difficult.

感觉翻译的人英语可能不是母语。

Like it's a little like you could see that whoever did the translation, English wasn't necessarily their their native language.

但书中的概念非常吸引人。

But the concepts were pretty fascinating.

太吸引人了。

Fascinating.

我是说，里面大量涉及博弈论，探讨人类为何缺乏应对长期生存威胁的能力，这背后的心理学原理是什么？

Think about I mean, it was a lot about game theory and the fact that humanity lacks the ability of reacting to existential long term threats, And what is the psychology behind it?

即便面对可能导致人类毁灭的威胁，我们仍然在为更世俗的问题争吵不休。

Even when faced with something that guarantees destruction of humanity, we still squabble around more earthly earthly problems.

还在搞部落争斗，而不是想着'嘿，我们都要完蛋了'。

Tribal arguments as opposed to, Hey, we're all gonna die.

我们得做点什么才行。

We better do something.

外星人要来了。

The aliens are coming.

对，没错。

Right, that's right.

而且我们知道你们有五十年的时间准备。

And we know you got fifty years to prepare.

是啊。

Yeah.

那是五月。

It was May.

书里写的是

In the book it

哦，是五月吗？

Oh, was was it May?

是的，即便如此，我是说，从积极的一面看，它也激发了惊人的创新。

Yeah, and even with that, I mean, the positive side, it also awoke amazing innovation.