纽约拥堵费政策真的奏效了吗？ & 企业再度青睐常春藤盟校毕业生

最好的B2B营销往往浪费在了错误的人身上。

The best b to b marketing gets wasted on the wrong people.

在哪个可能的世界里，我会需要社交媒体拼命向我展示的七磅重的芥末豌豆？

In what possible world do I need the seven pound bag of wasabi peas that social media is obsessed with showing me?

要触达正确的专业人士，请使用LinkedIn广告。

To reach the right professionals, use LinkedIn ads.

LinkedIn已经发展成为一个拥有超过1.3亿决策者的网络。

LinkedIn has grown to a network of over 130,000,000 decision makers.

你可以根据职位、行业等精准定位你的买家。

You can target your buyers by job title industry and more.

在你的首个活动中花费250美元，LinkedIn甚至会在你的下一次活动中赠送你250美元的抵扣额度。

Spend $250 on your first campaign, and LinkedIn will even give you a $250 credit on your next one.

只需访问 linkedin.com/mbd。

Just go to linkedin.com/mbd.

那就是 linkedin.com/mbd。

That's linkedin.com/mbd.

条款和条件仅适用于LinkedIn广告。

Terms and conditions apply only on LinkedIn ads.

早上好，Brew Daily Show。

Good morning, Brew Daily Show.

我是尼尔。

I'm Neil.

我是托比·霍威尔。

And I'm Toby Howell.

今天，2026年，有氧运动过时了，力量训练才是潮流。

Today for 2026, cardio is out and weight lifting is in.

那么，美国的披萨已经到达巅峰了吗？

Then has America reached peak pizza?

天哪。

The horror.

今天是1月6日，星期二。

It's Tuesday, January 6.

我们出发吧。

Let's ride.

早上好。

Good morning.

新年快乐。

New year.

更多冷知识。

More trivia.

在2025年举办了多场大获成功的问答之夜后，今年我们将继续举办2026年的第一场MBD问答活动，时间是下周二，1月13日，在曼哈顿。

After a bunch of hugely successful trivia nights in 2025, we are running it back this year with the first MBD trivia of 2026, one week from today, Tuesday the thirteenth in Manhattan.

如果你无法到场，或者想提前感受一下即将来临的脑力挑战，我现在就出一道题，答案会在节目末尾揭晓。

If you can't make it or wanna get a taste of the brain busting to come, I'll give you a question now and reveal the answer at the end of the show.

问题是这样的。

Here is the question.

美国只有一个州，其东西边界几乎完全由河流构成。

There's only one US state whose east and west borders are almost entirely formed by rivers.

你能说出这个州的名字吗？

Can you name the state?

我知道不是科罗拉多州，因为那里的边界太直了。

Well, I know it's not Colorado because those borders are much too straight.

你知道吗，尼尔？

You know what, Neil?

有些人刚醒过来，不想费心处理这些事，所以我来负责后勤吧。

Some of us just woke up and don't want to have to deal with that, so I'll deal with the logistics instead.

正如尼尔提到的， trivia 活动将在一周后于中城一家不错的酒吧举行。

As Neil mentioned, trivia's one week from today at a sweet bar in Midtown.

如果你想参与，请点击节目描述中的链接，或查看我们的 Instagram 故事。

If you wanna participate, head to the link in the show description or go check out our Instagram story.

我们也会在那里发布报名链接。

We'll also post the sign up there.

所以赶紧点击链接，转发给你最聪明的朋友，然后开始学习美国地理吧。

So head to the link, send it to your smartest friends, and I guess start studying American geography.

我们下周见。

We will see you all next week.

接下来请听我们的赞助商Rubrik的广告。

And now a word from our sponsor Rubrik.

尼尔，AI代理让我想起尝试一种新食谱时充满信心却完全没意识到事情可能有多糟，一步走错，整顿饭就毁了。

Neil, AI agents remind me of trying a new recipe full of confidence and zero awareness of how badly things can go, one wrong step, and suddenly you've ruined your whole meal.

或者在这种情况下，你的整个数据工作流程。

Or in this case, your entire data workflow.

所以你不是专业厨师，托比。

And that's why you're not a professional chef, Toby.

这很公平。

And that is fair.

这就是Rubrik Agent Cloud存在的原因。

That's why Rubrik Agent Cloud exists.

它是唯一一个能让你监控、管理和回滚你的AI代理的平台，以免它们意外毁掉任何重要东西。

It's the only platform that lets you monitor, govern, and rewind your AI agents so they don't accidentally torch anything important.

它让你全面了解每一个操作，设置安全边界，量化风险，如果出现意外，你只需几分钟就能回退。

It gives you full visibility into every action, lets you set guardrails, quantify risk, and if something goes sideways, you just rewind in minutes.

如果你的业务依赖于AI代理，你就需要监控、管理和回退它们操作的能力。

If your business relies on AI agents, you need the ability to monitor, govern, and rewind their actions.

目前，我们的听众可以独家提前访问Rubrik Agent Cloud。

Right now, our listeners get exclusive early access to Rubrik Agent Cloud.

前往 rubrik.com。

Head to rubrik.com.

那就是 rubrik.com。

That's rubrik.com.

Rubrik.com。

Rubrik.com.

纽约市的拥堵收费政策昨天迎来了它的第一个周年纪念，目前进展顺利。

New York City's congestion pricing celebrated its first birthday yesterday, and so far, so good.

这项计划是美国首个同类政策，似乎正在实现其主要目标：减少车辆、缓解道路拥堵、增加收入，以及让更多人使用公共交通。

The scheme, the first of its kind in The United States, seems to be achieving its main goals, fewer cars, less traffic on roads, raising money, and more people on public transit.

让我们回溯到2025年1月5日，当时这座大苹果城开启了自新冠疫情以来最大胆的实验。

Let's rewind to 01/05/2025 when the Big Apple embarked on its most audacious experiment since the corona.

进入曼哈顿主要商业区、低于60街的车辆，在早上5点至晚上9点之间将被收取9美元费用。

Cars entering the main business district of Manhattan, entering below 60th Street, would be charged $9 between 5AM and 9PM.

这项有争议的计划遭到了许多居民的反对，被新泽西州多次起诉，特朗普总统也誓言要终止它。

The controversial program was met with pushback from many residents, sued a bunch of times by New Jersey, and President Trump vowed to end it.

但到目前为止，法院裁定其合法。

But so far, courts have found it to be legal.

在成功度过第一年之后，拥堵收费政策取得了诸多值得庆祝的成果。

And having survived its first year, congestion pricing has a lot of wins it can celebrate.

首要也是最重要的成果是车辆减少了。

The first and most important is the cars.

曼哈顿的车辆数量大幅减少。

There are a lot less of them in Manhattan.

自收费实施以来，进入商业区的车辆减少了约11%，总计减少了2700万辆车，相当于每天减少7.3万辆。

About 11% of the vehicles that had been entering the business district have evaporated since the toll launched, equivalent to 27,000,000 fewer cars in total or 73,000 a day.

这有助于减少公共交通的乘客数量。

That's helped reduce public transit ridership.

它加快了仍驾车进入市区的人的通勤时间。

It's sped up commute times for people who are still driving in.

它提高了公交车的行驶速度，同时并未损害区内本地商业的利益，而这是主要的担忧。

It's improved traffic speeds for buses, all without hurting the local businesses inside the zone, which was a primary fear.

托比，先是拉瓜迪亚机场的升级，现在又是拥堵收费。

Toby, first LaGuardia's glow up, and now congestion pricing.

纽约市是否正在学会如何做好基础设施建设？

Is New York City figuring out how to do infrastructure?

这是为数不多的、堪称典范的政策之一，它完全实现了既定目标：让曼哈顿的街道对出租车和私家车来说更容易通行，同时为公共交通系统筹集资金。

This is one of the great, you know, shining examples of a policy that did exactly what it set out to do because the goal was to, you know, make the streets of Manhattan a little bit more tenable to navigate if you are a taxi, if you are a car, and it's to raise money for the transit system.

它似乎实现了所有设定的目标。

And it seems like it accomplished every single thing it set out to accomplish.

我想深入探讨一下通勤方面以及车辆减少的问题。

I do want to dive into the commute aspect and the fact that there are fewer cars.

这对通勤者意味着什么？

What does that mean for commuters?

这意味着你的行驶速度会快很多。

It means that you're going a lot faster.

林肯隧道的车速提高了51%。

Lincoln Tunnel speed increases are 51% faster.

皇后区中城隧道提速了24%。

Queens Midtown Tunnel, 24% faster.

曼哈顿大桥的通行速度提升了29%。

Manhattan Bridge is moving 29% faster.

所有进入曼哈顿的通道都变快了，由于进入曼哈顿的车辆减少，围绕并堵塞这些主要道路的车辆也随之减少。

Every artery into Manhattan has sped up, and what that's done is because there are fewer cars entering Manhattan, there are also fewer cars surrounding and clogging this the highways that are funneling in.

因此，就连纽约市以外的地区也在说：我开车更顺畅了，因为总体上车少了。

So even places outside of New York City proper are saying, I'm zooming around more because there's just less people in general.

所以我不确定这种影响能延伸多远。

So I don't know how far out that that extends.

我们说的是像

Are we talking like

不是宾夕法尼亚。

Not Pennsylvania.

宾夕法尼亚、马萨诸塞。

Pennsylvania, Massachusetts.

但实际情况是，即使你不是直接住在城市范围内，通勤者也受益匪浅。

But what it is is basically saying that commuters are benefiting a lot even if you aren't living directly within the city limits.

那商业影响呢？

And what about the business impact?

这可是个大事件。

This was a huge fair.

在60街以南，有时代广场、熨斗区，还有许多人们常去的地方，以及许多 businesses，它们都担心不仅车流量会减少，连到店的客流量也会大幅下降。

So below 60th Street, you got Times Square, you got Flatiron District, you got all of these places that a lot of people go to and a lot of businesses that were there and were wondering whether there was going to be a lot of not just traffic drying up, but foot traffic drying up to their businesses.

当时确实有很多担忧，这完全可以理解。

And there was a lot of worry there, which was completely understandable.

时代广场联盟主席汤姆·哈里斯表示，他没有看到本地企业受到任何负面影响。

Well, the president of Times Square Alliance, Tom Harris, said he's seen no negative impacts to local businesses.

他说，我们很高兴没有看到任何负面影响。

He said, we're thrilled we have not seen negative impacts.

看起来这些影响已经被消化了。

It seems like it has been absorbed.

总体而言，2024年至2025年，中央商务区的访客量增长了3.4%，这一增幅超过了曼哈顿全区1.4%的增幅。

And overall, visits to the Central Business District are up 3.4% from 2024 to 2025, and that is bigger than the the boost across the entire borough of Manhattan, which was 1.4.

你还可以参考另一个数据点：在该区域内，OpenTable上的餐厅预订量增长幅度与曼哈顿其他地区相当。

You can also look at another data point, which is restaurant reservations on OpenTable were up inside the zone as much as the rest of Manhattan.

因此，似乎人们仍然在进入68街以南的拥堵收费区，无论是开车、乘巴士、地铁还是其他交通方式。

So it seems like people were were still entering the congestion zone below 68th Street, whether it was by car or by bus or by subway or any other form of transit.

当然，这项政策也面临一些反对声音。

Now, of course, there is pushback to this policy.

其中一些反对意见是数据无法完全捕捉到的。

Some of it is pushback that data can't necessarily capture.

《纽约时报》采访了一些读者，他们的抱怨是，我去曼哈顿的次数变少了。

The New York Times talked to some of the readers, and their complaints were that I am making fewer trips to Manhattan.

这意味着我有时会避开城市内的医生和医疗服务。

That means sometimes I'm avoiding doctors and medical care inside the the city.

我参加那里的社交活动也变少了，感觉自己的世界‘变小了’。

I'm going to fewer social events there as well, feeling like their worlds, quote, got smaller.

所以有些人说，我并没有出现在那些数据中，因为我根本就没有进入那个区域。

So there are people that say, I'm not showing up in that data necessarily because I'm just not showing up at all in that district.

这也很有趣。

And you it is fascinating too.

如果你去看看这些图表，会发现，在拥堵收费实施前，进入人数会出现一个高峰，而在收费结束后，进出人数又会出现一个高峰。

If you go and look at some of these charts, do see, you know, people are there's a spike in entries right before the congestion pricing kicks in and there's a spike in entry and exits right after it, you know, ends.

因此，你确实看到人们的行为因这项政策而改变，而这正是此类政策的初衷；但有些人说，因为这项政策，我做的事情变少了，而这些情况并不总能体现在大家所庆祝的数据中。

And so you are seeing people's behavior change because of this, which is exactly the point of a policy like this, but some people are saying hey, am doing fewer things because of this policy, and sometimes that doesn't show up necessarily in the data that everyone is celebrating.

而且我还要支付9美元才能进入，却还是要堵在路上。

And I'm also paying $9 to enter, and I'm still waiting in traffic.

而且，看看这些数字很容易就说，哦，你们应该能快速通过这些隧道，但很多时候你们还是在堵车。

And, you know, it's easy to look at these these numbers and say oh you're you should be speeding through these tunnels but oftentimes you're still waiting in traffic.

所以，这只是一个重大实验的开始，如果你觉得这不关你的事，因为你不住在纽约市，你住在芝加哥或洛杉矶，那你就错了。纽约伙伴关系的主席凯西·怀尔德，是纽约市一个大型商业游说团体的负责人，她说她已经接到许多其他城市的电话，包括洛杉矶，想效仿实施拥堵收费。

So you know this is the start of a major experiment and if you're looking at this thinking yeah I don't live in New York City, live in Chicago, I live in Los Angeles like this doesn't apply to Well, Kathy Wilde, who's the president of the seat of the Partnership for New York, is a big business lobby in New York City, says she's been taking calls from a bunch of other cities, including Los Angeles, trying to implement congestion pricing.

佛罗里达州的布兰登。

Brandon, Florida.

得了吧。

Come on.

那里太挤了。

It's too crowded down there.

很多越冬老人。

A lot of snowbirds.

继续。

Moving on.

事实证明，你上哪所大学确实很重要。

Turns out it does matter where you went to college.

在接受了人才可以来自任何地方的理念后，公司又回到了以往的招聘策略，专注于从少数精英院校招聘员工。

After embracing the idea that talent could come from anywhere, companies are reverting back to their old recruiting tactics, focusing on a small number of elite institutions to source their workers.

根据Verus Insights对150家公司的调查，26%的公司仅从一小部分学校招聘，而这一比例在2022年仅为17%。

According to a survey of a 150 companies from Verus Insights, 26% are recruiting exclusively from a short list of schools, up from 17% back in 2022.

部分原因是线下工作现在更加普遍，因此公司更关注本地候选人，并参加靠近办公室的校园活动，以应对在线职位通常吸引的成千上万份由AI生成的简历。

Part of the reason is in person work is a lot more prevalent now, so companies are focusing on local candidates and attending on campus events closer to their offices as an antidote to the thousands of AI generated resumes online job offers can usually attract.

这与疫情期间形成鲜明对比，当时雇主依赖虚拟活动接触数十所高校，并强调他们看重的是人而非学历背景。

That's a notable reversal from the pandemic era when employers leaned on virtual events to reach dozens of campuses and emphasized that they were after people not pedigreed.

以多样性为导向的项目也受到了打击。

Diversity driven programs have also taken a hit.

麦肯锡最近从其招聘页面上删除了'我们招聘的是人，而不是学位'这样的表述。

McKinsey recently removed language from its career page that said, we hire people, not degrees.

将多样性列为学校招聘选拔优先事项的雇主比例，已从2022年的近60%下降到2025年的31%。

And employers who cite diversity as a priority for school recruiting selection fell to 31% in 2025, down from nearly 60% in 2022.

所有这些因素加在一起，使得来自核心院校之外的学生再次面临被忽视的风险，而大学选择再次成为一道门槛。

It all adds up to students from outside of core schools once again finding themselves in danger of being overlooked, and College Choice once again functioning as a gatekeeper.

尼尔，这就是就业市场长期以来的状况。

Neil, this is how the job market went for a long time.

看来我们又回到了精简模式。

Looks like we're reverting back to lean.

对于我们这些没有上过所谓精英院校的人来说，这太吓人了。

This is spooky for those of us who didn't go to a quote unquote elite institution.

威廉·切斯特三世，曾负责塔吉特和Peloton等公司的初级招聘，他说大多数公司现在只从大约4000所大学中的30所美国高校招聘。

William Chisester the third who had a who was directing entry level recruiting at companies like Target and Peloton said that most companies are now recruiting from only up to 30 American colleges out of about 4,000.

他说，如果你不属于这两类，那就自求多福吧。

And he said if you fall outside of those two categories, God help you.

对于成千上万、甚至上百万不在这些精英院校、却在寻找潜在雇主的初级求职者来说，这确实令人担忧，因为这些雇主由于各种原因，大幅缩小了招聘范围。

So that is a little scary for the thousands, hundreds of thousands of entry level workers or potential entry level workers who are not at these elite colleges and are looking at these potential employers that are very much narrowed the scope of who they're hiring for a bunch of different reasons.

我认为雇主会说，我们并不是只专注于精英院校。

I think the employer would say that we're not necessarily focusing on elite institutions only.

我们只是选择与我们业务相关的地区性院校。

We're just focusing on regional institutions that make sense for our business.

通用电气家电公司表示，我们只从这大约15所大学招聘，因为我们的办公室就位于这些地方。

GE appliances said that, hey, we're only recruiting from these 15 or so schools because that's where our office is located.

而且我们发现，整体而言，Z世代不太愿意搬迁。

And we have seen that Gen Z on a whole tends to be less likely to want to relocate.

如今，公司普遍不太愿意承担搬迁费用。

Companies as a whole are less likely to pay relocation costs these days.

随着线下工作逐渐恢复，只参加总部附近学校举办的招聘活动确实更有意义。

And as in person work starts to rev up again, it does make sense to only attend events at schools that are near your actual headquarters.

看看麦肯锡做了什么。

Look at what McKinsey did.

在乔治·弗洛伊德遇害以及2020年和2021年大规模推动多元化、公平与包容之后，麦肯锡曾在其网站上发布过这一信息。

So they put this after George Floyd's murder and the big DEI push of 2020 and 2021, McKinsey had this on their website.

他们宣称：‘我们招聘的是人，而不是学历’，并大力推动从非核心院校招聘人才。

They go, we hire people, not degrees, and had this big push to hire people from quote unquote non core campuses.

他们后来已从网站上删除了这一内容，但其内部数据显示，来自非核心院校的员工表现往往优于来自核心院校的员工。

They have since removed that from their website, but their own internal data found that hires from non core campuses often perform better than those from core schools.

所以去年，麦肯锡从大约80所大学招聘。

So last year, McKinsey hired from about 80 schools.

但当你查看刚毕业学生的失业数据时，情况确实令人担忧，因为失业率正在上升。

But certainly when you're looking at the unemployment stats for those who just graduated, it's quite alarming because it is going up.

回溯到2023年6月。

Go back to June 2023.

当时，新近毕业的大学生失业率为4.3%。

The unemployment rate for recent college grads was 4.3%.

再看一年后，这一数字上升到了4.6%。

Zoom ahead one year, that's 4.6%.

到2025年6月，已升至4.9%。

Go ahead to June 2025, it's 4.9%.

而如今在2025年9月，已攀升至5.8%。

And then now in September 2025, it is up to 5.8%.

所以，现在的就业市场非常严峻。

So it is a tough job market out there.

这让我想起我们之前读过一篇《华尔街日报》的文章，讲的是大学城镇正经历繁荣时代的终结，我指的是像伊利诺伊州麦克omb这样的中型大学城镇，而不是那些大型州立大学表现得非常好。

And you know what I this reminds me of is we read a previous piece from the Wall Street Journal that talked about how college towns are kind of seeing the end of a boom era for them, and I'm talking about mid sized college towns like Macomb, Illinois versus, you know, these larger state schools are doing very well.

过去，这些地方经济非常活跃，因为人们会去那里上大学，雇主也会雇佣他们，于是美国各地遍布着充满活力的大学城镇。

And these used to be, you know, these very economically vibrant places because, you know, people would go to college there, employers would hire them, and then you have, like, these vibrant college towns dotting America.

现在我们看到的几乎是幂律效应，最大的公立大学表现非常出色。

Now we are seeing almost power laws in effect where the biggest public schools are doing very well.

精英院校也表现得非常好。

The elite institutions are doing very well.

但这些中等层次的大学，却没有国家层面的雇主派代表参加他们的活动，正如这篇文章所显示的那样。

But these kind of middle tier colleges, no national employers are going and sending representatives to their event as, you know, this piece showed.

因此，你现在看到入学人数下降，在75%的这类城市中，经济增长停滞，低于前十年的水平，因为那些严重依赖高等教育但并非顶尖学校的地区，目前正遭受冲击。

And so now you are seeing enrollment fall, you're seeing that in 75% of these cities, economic growth stalled and was lower than in the in the decade prior because areas reliant on heavy higher education that aren't, you know, these top schools aren't suffering right now.

接下来，全国各地的健身房比周日的Trader Joe's还要繁忙，因为人们正努力实现新年健身目标。

Moving on, gyms across the country are busier than a Trader Joe's on a Sunday as people try to get a jump on their New Year's resolution of getting in shape.

但当你去健身房时——我知道你们所有人都去——会注意到与几年前相比，有一些明显的不同。

But when you go to the gym, and I know all of you do, you'll notice some glaring differences from a few years ago.

深蹲架前排起了长队，而跑步机却积满了灰尘。

The squat rack has a line out the door while the treadmills are collecting dust.

这是人们锻炼方式发生全面变化的一部分。

It's part of a sweeping change in how people are working out.

具体来说，他们正在用力量训练取代有氧运动，这促使健身房进行重大调整。

Specifically, they are replacing cardio with weightlifting, and it's causing gyms to make a major pivot.

在接受《纽约时报》采访时，全球最大的健身连锁品牌Planet Fitness的首席执行官表示，她的门店正在减少有氧设备的数量，使健身房一半的面积用于力量训练，另一半用于有氧运动。

In an interview with the New York Times, the CEO of Planet Fitness, one of the biggest gym chains in the world, said that her locations are reducing the amount of cardio equipment so that half of the gym floor would be dedicated to strength and the other half devoted to cardio.

如果你最近刷过社交媒体，就不会感到惊讶。

If you scrolled on social media recently, you won't be surprised.

一大批网红一直在推广增肌和高蛋白饮食作为健康生活的关键，将长跑和其他长期主导健身文化的有氧运动边缘化。

A slew of influencers have been promoting building muscle mass and housing protein as the key to a healthy life, sidelining runs and other forms of cardio that long dominated fitness culture.

看来我们这些‘羊群’确实受到了影响。

And it seems us sheeple are being influenced.

自2021年以来，谷歌上关于有氧运动的搜索平均每月下降3%，而对力量训练的关注度则上升了6%。

Since 2021, Google searches for cardio workouts have declined on average by 3% each month, while interest in strength focused routines has climbed 6%.

托比，这种举重热潮如果健身房愿意拥抱，似乎为它们带来了巨大的机遇。

Toby, this weight lifting craze seems to present a huge opportunity for gyms if they're willing to embrace it.

Planet Fitness也在拥抱力量器械方面取得了成功。

It's working for Planet Fitness as well, this embracing of strength equipment.

在最近一个季度，其收入增长了13%。

Revenue was up 13% in its most recent quarter.

过去五年，其股价上涨了30%。

Its share price is up 30% over the past five years.

所以看起来，你知道，Planet Fitness并不像是在当前这个健身狂热领域中大获成功的公司，但他们确实关注了数据，因为健身房确实拥有这些数据。

So it does look like, you know, Planet Fitness doesn't jump off the page as some company that is killing it, you know, the fitness obsessed area that we're in right now, but they looked at the data because you gyms do have data on this.

他们会查看哪些器械无人问津，哪些器械被频繁使用，结果显而易见，人们现在都渴望练出肌肉。

They do look at which machines are collecting dust and which machines are being used, and it was just overwhelming and clear that, you know, people wanna get swole these days.

我认为，如果你去健身房，这一点会直观地展现在你眼前。

And I think that reflects if you do go to the gym, that absolutely plays out in front of your eyes.

你根本找不到空的长凳。

You can't get a bench.

如今你根本抢不到深蹲架，主要是因为现在人们普遍重视这一方面的健康。

You can't get a squat rack these days mainly because it is just in vogue right now to prioritize that aspect of your health.

那你认为为什么会流行呢？

And why do you think it's in vogue?

是因为蛋白质热潮吗？

Is it the protein craze?

是因为增肌吗？

Is it the building muscle mass?

这是否与GLP-1药物有关？

Could it have something to do with GLP-1s?

每八个美国人中就有一个服用过这类药物，而它们的一个重要目标是在减重的同时保持肌肉。

One in eight Americans have taken one of these medications, and a big focus of that is retaining muscle as you lose weight.

GLP-1药物确实与此有关，但我也认为这几乎是一场代际变迁，因为Z世代成长过程中，很可能是第一代看到父母经常去健身房的一代人。

That is absolutely part of the GLP-one drugs, but then I also do think there's almost a demographic movement happening because Gen Z grew up as well, probably the first generation that saw their parents going to the gym pretty regularly.

过去，健身房文化并不一定是一种常态。

In the past, you know, gym culture was not necessarily a thing.

以前，这更像是边缘健美爱好者的事情。

It was more for, like, a fringe bodybuilding type thing.

但现在，千禧一代、他们的父母、Z世代以及他们的父母都经历了这种多代人共同参与健身的潮流。

But now, you know, millennials and their parents and Gen Z and their parents have had kind of this multigenerational push of going to the gym.

如今，力量训练已经成为健康生活方式的一部分。

Like, strength training is just a part of a healthy lifestyle these days.

所以我认为，这里确实存在一个不容忽视的人口结构因素。

So I do think that there's sort of a demographic element at play here that you can't overlook.

对于健身公司来说，适应还是死亡是现实的选择。

And it's really adapt or die for fitness companies.

Peloton 去年推出了一个力量训练 Plus 应用。

Peloton released a Strength plus app last year.

Peloton 以前主要以其动感单车和其他有氧设备闻名，但现在它表示，客户进行的力量训练次数几乎与骑行训练一样多。

Peloton was mainly known for its spikes and other cardio equipment, but now it says its customers are doing almost as many muscle building workouts as its cycling routines.

对于一些未能适应的公司来说，它们已经倒闭了。

For some companies that didn't adapt, they have died.

Bowflex于2024年申请了破产。

Bowflex filed for bankruptcy in 2024.

它超过46%的收入来自有氧运动产品，且在截至9月30日的六个月内，销售额下降了25%。

It got more than 46% of its revenue from cardio products, and its sales plunged by 25% in the six month period ended September 30.

所以人们正在寻找力量训练。

So people are looking for strength training.

他们不再关注有氧运动，公司要么站在历史的正确一边，要么站在错误的一边。

They are not looking for cardio, and companies are either on the right side of history or the wrong side.

我正看着你呢，尼尔。

And I'm looking at you, Neil.

看来你现在站在历史的正确一边。

Looks like you're on the right side of history right now.

我很喜欢看你进行力量训练。

I love seeing you hit the strength training.

好了。

Alright.

我们先休息一下，回来后讲一个关于披萨的故事。

We're gonna take a quick break and come back with a story about pizza.

托比，你怎么让AI为你所用？

Toby, how do you make AI work for you?

我表弟已经有好几个月没收到我真正写的信息了，但我们从未如此亲近。

My cousin hasn't received a text I actually wrote in months, and we've never been closer.

我的意思是，从商业角度来看，如果你不使用AI，你的竞争对手很可能已经赶超你了。

I mean, more from a business perspective, in which case, if you're not using AI, your competitors are probably getting ahead.

哦，如果是那样的话，那就有甲骨文的NetSuite。

Oh, well, in that case, there's NetSuite by Oracle.

它们能帮你让AI发挥作用。

They help you put AI to work.

NetSuite是超过43,000家企业信赖的头号AI云ERP系统。

NetSuite is the number one AI cloud ERP trusted by over 43,000 businesses.

它是一个统一的套件，能将你的财务、库存、电商、人力资源和客户关系管理整合为单一的数据来源。

It's a unified suite that can bring your financials, inventory, commerce, HR, and CRM into a single source of truth.

它可以自动化任务、提供洞察、帮助降低成本等。

It can automate tasks, deliver insights, help cut costs, and more.

现在就获取他们的免费商业指南，揭开AI的神秘面纱，访问 netsuite.com/brew。

Right now, get their free business guide, demystifying AI at netsuite.com/brew.

访问 netsuite.com/brew。

That's netsuite.com/brew.

你上一次在外面吃一块调皮的醉酒披萨是什么时候？

When's the last time you had some pizza outside a cheeky little drunken slice?

几天前？

Days?

几个月前？

Months?

在今天的《托比的趋势》节目中，我们将探讨这个令人不安的问题：美国是否已经达到了披萨的巅峰？

On today's edition of Toby's trends, we're exploring that chilling question, has America reached peak pizza?

根据《华尔街日报》海瑟·哈登的调查，现在享受披萨的人比以往任何时候都少。

According to an investigation by Wall Street Journal's Heather Haddon, fewer people than ever are indulging in pizza.

披萨在美国连锁餐厅的菜系销量中现已排名第六，而上世纪九十年代它通常位居第二。

Pizza is now ranked sixth amongst different cuisines by US chain sales, down from its usual second place spot it held throughout the nineties.

最近，它已被咖啡店和墨西哥连锁餐厅超越，影响了各种规模的连锁店。

It's been passed by by coffee shops and Mexican chains of late, and it's affecting chains of all sizes.

必胜客和棒约翰在过去一年中的某个时候都经历了销售额下滑，而像Blaze这样的中型连锁店也在关闭门店。

Pizza Hut and Papa John's both explored sales at some point over the last year, while mid sized chains like Blaze are also closing locations.

问题的一部分在于披萨变贵了。

Part of the issue is that pizza got expensive.

曾经是简便实惠的家庭餐选择，如今却变得昂贵，20美元一份的披萨正变得越来越普遍。

What used to be a cheap and easy way to drum up a family meal suddenly got pricey with $20 pies increasingly becoming the norm.

此外，外卖应用的兴起意味着披萨现在必须与指尖即可获取的任何菜系竞争，而不是你父母随手塞在抽屉里的那些随机菜单。

Plus the rise of delivery apps means pizza now has to compete against every cuisine imaginable available at the tap of a button rather than the random menus your parents stashed in a junk drawer.

不过，尼尔，别误会我的意思。

Now, Neil, don't get me wrong.

披萨依然受欢迎，2024年连锁披萨店的收入仍达到310亿美元。

Pizza is still popular with chains bringing in $31,000,000,000 in 2024.

在任何一天，每十个美国人中就有一个会选择吃一片披萨，但它已不再是昔日那种坚不可摧的美国饮食支柱。

On any given day, one in 10 Americans are opting for a slice, but it's no longer the unshakable pillar of American diets it once was.

实际上，托比，我现在真的震惊了。

Actually, Toby, I'm shook right now.

我的意思是，但当你看看这些数据时，你会觉得，嗯，也许我们真的已经达到了披萨的巅峰。

I mean, but but then you look at the stats and you're like, yeah, maybe we have reached peak pizza.

如今的门店数量比2019年更少了。

There are fewer locations now than there were in 2019.

必胜客已经连续八个季度出现销售额下滑。

Pizza Hut has had eight eight consecutive quarters of sales declines.

加利福尼亚披萨厨房，我心爱的CPK，早在去年十二月就被卖掉了，售价为3亿美元。

California Pizza Kitchen, my beloved CPK, was sold back in December for $300,000,000.

这远低于它在2011年卖出的4.7亿美元。

That is far less than the 470,000,000 it was sold for back in 2011.

所以也许你是对的，但我现在真的震惊了。

So perhaps you are right, but I am shook right now.

这很有趣，因为我确实认为，通过外卖应用带来的竞争加剧才是关键所在，想想你的青春岁月。

It is interesting because I do think the expanded competition via delivery apps is the main story here because think about your youth.

当你问‘我们晚饭吃什么？’

When you say, what should we have for dinner?

而你又不想做饭的时候。

And you don't feel like cooking.

那时，披萨店几乎是唯一提供外送服务的地方。

The pizza place was like the only place that really delivered.

现在你可以用Uber Eats，也可以用DoorDash，几乎所有餐饮选择都能送到你面前。

Now you can go on Uber Eats, can go on DoorDash, and you have literally every single option available to you.

所以现在披萨不仅要和这些选项竞争，还要和它们一较高下。

So now pizza is competing against all of those options as well as well.

还有那些碗类餐食供应商的碗饭，以及提供外带服务的高档餐厅。

You know, the slot bowls from the slot bowl purveyors, you the fine dining establishments that do takeout.

所有这些都被混在一起，相比之下，披萨可能就显得黯然失色了。

It is all mismatched into this thing that pizza maybe pales in comparison to.

什么？

What?

别这么说

Don't say

别这样说，托尼。

that, Tony.

你什么意思？

What are you what you saying?

这正是我个人想说的，完全正确。

That is what I'm personally I'm saying that absolutely.

我点披萨了。

I got pizza.

你知道吗？

You know?

披萨总是陪着我，但数据显示，如果你是必胜客或者棒约翰，你正在关闭门店。

Pizza's always there for me, but it does look like the data if you are a Papa John's or you are a Pizza Hut, you're closing locations.

你看到销售额在下降。

You're seeing sales fall.

你看到人们更倾向于选择性价比高的餐食。

You are seeing people going after value driven meals more.

达美乐是目前唯一一家表现良好的披萨连锁店，因为他们专注于替代菜单项目，同时也提供了非常诱人的优惠。

Domino's is the only pizza chain that is doing well right now because they've kind of focused on alternative menu items, but also on these pretty insane deals.

所以我认为，性价比是我们每次讨论的核心话题。

So I think value it's the story we talk about on every single story.

性价比、 affordability（价格实惠）、让消费者觉得物有所值，仍然驱动着大量人的消费行为。

Value, affordability, feeling like you're getting bang for your buck still drives a lot of people's consumption.

我认为这是选择的多样性，同时也和价格有关。

How do I think it's optionality and I think it's also price.

全国披萨（奶酪披萨）的平均价格现在接近17美元，我不知道你是否在纽约市，那里一大块披萨的价格可能达到30到40美元。

The national average of pizza of a cheese pizza is now nearly $17, which I don't know if you're in New York City, it can go $30 to $40 for a large pizza.

这简直太离谱了。

Like it is insane.

所以我认为人们也开始对披萨价格的上涨感到难以接受。

So I think people are also balking at the price of how expensive pizza has gotten.

你最近有没有看到《华尔街日报》关于现在孩子们喜欢什么、他们在派对上点什么的文章？

And did you catch the Wall Street Journal article recently about what kids are into these days and what they're ordering at their parties?

生日派对不再以披萨为主了。

It's not longer pizza parties for birthdays.

他们想要寿司。

They want sushi.

寿司已经取代了披萨，成为年轻人想吃的食物，这让很多父母感到沮丧，他们说：‘披萨太贵了。’

Like, sushi has taken up the mantle as the thing that young people want to eat, which much of the chagrin of parents, they're going, oh, pizza's too expensive.

现在我们有了小暴君，每周每顿饭、每个生日都想要寿司。

Now we got little tyrants, you know, wanting sushi for every single weeknight meal and every single birthday.

也许寿司已经接过了披萨早已失去的主导地位。

So maybe sushi is taking up the mantle that pizza has long since lost.

好吧。

Alright.

让我们用一些最后的新闻头条冲刺结束。

Let's sprint to the finish with some final headlines.

委内瑞拉总统尼古拉斯·马杜罗及其妻子在被美国军队发动的一次震惊全球的突袭捕获两天后，于曼哈顿首次出庭时对联邦指控表示不认罪。

Venezuelan president Nicolas Maduro and his wife pleaded not guilty to federal charges in their first court appearance in Manhattan two days after they were captured by the US military in a shocking raid that sent shock waves across the world.

马杜罗被司法部指控从事毒品贩运，他在法庭上称自己遭到了绑架，并声称：‘我是无辜的。’

Maduro, who was accused by the DOJ of narco trafficking, told the judge he had been kidnapped and claimed, quote, I am innocent.

我不 guilty。

I'm not guilty.

我是个正直的人。

I'm a decent man.

我仍然是我国家的总统。

I am still the president of my country.

他和妻子很可能要过一年多才会面临审判。

It's likely he and his wife won't face a trial until well over a year.

与此同时，像雪佛龙和瓦莱罗这样的石油相关股票上涨，投资者谨慎押注美国推翻马杜罗将使美国公司得以享受委内瑞拉的原油储备——全球最大的石油储备。

Meanwhile, oil related stocks like Chevron and Valero climbed as investors placed cautious bets that The US deposing of Maduro would lead American companies to enjoy the spoils of Venezuela's crude reserves, the largest on the planet.

事实上，昨天所有股票都大幅上涨，表明华尔街并不认为委内瑞拉事件会演变成更大的地缘政治冲突。

In fact, stocks across the board were up big time yesterday, showing that Wall Street doesn't really believe the Venezuela episode will spiral spiral into a larger geopolitical conflict.

关于委内瑞拉，有人对尼古拉斯·马杜罗做出了非常幸运或非常有远见的押注。

On the subject of Venezuela, someone made a very lucky or very informed bet about Nicolas Maduro.

周五，一个在预测市场网站Polymarket上刚注册的新账户，押注3万美元，认为马杜罗将在1月前下台。

On Friday, a brand new account on the prediction market site, Polymarket, wagered $30,000 that Maduro would be out of office by the January.

就在第二天，马杜罗被俘，这笔押注为交易员带来了43.7万美元的收益。

The very next day, Maduro was captured, and the bet netted the trader $437,000.

由于时间点过于巧合，人们开始质疑：是否有人利用政府内部信息进行了这笔押注？

Because the timing looked too perfect, people started asking, did someone with inside government information just place that bet?

很难得到明确的答案，因此自那以来，国会议员里奇·托雷斯正试图彻底消除这种可能性。

It's hard to get a straight answer, which is why in the days since congressman Richie Torres is trying to shut down that possibility altogether.

他正在提出一项法案，禁止任何通过职务接触非公开信息的政府官员在预测市场上进行投注。

He's introducing a bill that would ban government officials from betting on prediction markets if they have access to nonpublic information through their jobs.

因此，委内瑞拉事件的一个支线故事是，有人利用看似敏感的内部信息赚取了巨额财富。

So a subplot to Venezuela is someone made a fortune with seemingly sensitive insider information.

现在国会希望确保内部人士不能再这样操作。

Now congress wants to make sure that an insider can't do that again.

我们在每一个大事件中都见过这种情况。

We've seen this in every big story.

有一个主要情节。

There's the big plot.

还有一个A情节，就是实际发生的事情。

There's plot a, which is what happened.

还有一个B情节，就是预测市场上的情况以及由此引发的争议。

And then there's the b plot, which is what happened on prediction markets and all the controversy there.

每年新年，都有更多历史悠久的作品摆脱版权束缚，进入公共领域，可以被改编成恐怖片和其他创意作品。

Finally, each new year means more historic works breaking out of copyright jail and entering the public domain where they can be remade into slasher flicks and other creative works.

今年1月1日，贝蒂娃娃以及《南希·德鲁》的前四本书、《小火车做到了》、《佐治亚在我心》和乔治·格什温与艾拉·格什温的多首歌曲也进入了公共领域。

This January 1, Betty Boop joined the public domain as well as the first four Nancy Drew books, The Little Engine That Could, Georgia On My Mind, and A Bunch of George and Ira Gershwin songs.

通常，1978年之前出版或注册的作品享有95年的版权保护，这意味着这是自20世纪30年代的知识产权首次可以不经许可被重新利用。

Generally, works published or registered before 1978 retain their copyright protections for ninety five years, which means this is the first time IP from the nineteen thirties can be repurposed without permission.

托比，我终于可以向世界发布我的《南希·德鲁》摇滚歌剧了。

Toby, I can finally release my Nancy Drew rock opera to the world.

每年，杜克大学的这些律师都会仔细梳理进入公共领域的作品，并整理出一份清单，突出一些值得关注的重要作品，就像你提到的那样。

Every year, these Duke lawyers kinda comb through the works that enter the public domain and put together a list highlighting some major ones to look out for, like you mentioned.

今年，一些进入公共领域的电影是在海斯法典生效之前制作的，而海斯法典是一套电影公司自我实施的准则，禁止某些题材、粗俗语言、暴力和裸露内容。

And this year, some of the films that enter the public domain come before the Hays Code went into effect, which is the Hays Code is this self imposed studio guidelines that banned certain subjects, certain profanity, violence, nudity.

它还禁止了充满情欲的接吻场面。

It also banned lustful kissing.

所以这些电影都是在海斯法典生效前拍摄的。

So these are movies made right before that went into effect.

因此，杜克大学的律师们说，今年有点火辣。

So the Duke lawyers were like, this is kind of a spicy year.

比如，这些电影里有人在银幕上接吻。

Like, we have people kissing on screen in some of these movies.

所以，对于版权律师来说，这就是你们会兴奋的事情——当我们谈论海斯法典时，今年真是特别有趣的一年。

So this is what, you know, people get excited for if you're a copyright lawyer is that we've got a fun year when it when it when we're talking about the Hays Code.

想到过去十年中产生的哪些知识产权将在九十五年后进入公共领域，这真是有趣。我还想补充一点，这个领域的许多专家认为，将作品版权保护长达九十五年实在太长了，而将作品投入公共领域实际上能延长其生命力，促进保存。

So it's funny to think about which IP that's been produced in the past ten years will eventually enter the public domain ninety five years from now, and I should add a lot of experts in this field say ninety five years is exceedingly long to have something in copyright jail and that putting something in the public domain actually extends its longevity, allows for preservation.

他们正试图修改这项由迪士尼推动的法律。

So they're trying to change this law that was instigated by Disney actually.

所以，你最近几年有没有想过哪些新创作的作品最终会进入公共领域？

So you know, what are some things that you're thinking about in the past couple years that have been created that will eventually enter the public domain?

我想到了《Marty Supreme》、《堡垒之夜》、《权力的游戏》和《怪奇物语》。

Marty Supreme, I'm thinking about Fortnite, Game of Thrones, Stranger Things.

这些作品都是在过去十年左右创作出来的。

These are all things that were created originally, you know, in the past couple past decade.

将来我们的子孙后代将能够享受这些作品带来的成果。

And that eventually our grandkids will be able to enjoy the fruits of the labor of.

你列举的那些可能进入公共领域的角色可比我想的强多了，我唯一能想到的——而且这甚至都不算数——是‘Rizzler’。

You did a lot better coming up with characters that might enter the public domain because the only thing I could think of, and this doesn't even count, is the Rizzler.

Rizzler是一个人类男性。

The Rizzler is a human man.

这不一定是某个角色，但如果你能 hypothetically 对它进行版权保护，Rizzler 能否代代相传呢？

That is not necessarily a character, but if that is something that you could eventually, you know, copyright, hypothetically, could the Rizzler be passed down from generation to generation?

我希望他是。

I hope he is.

我希望

I hope

他是。

he is.

你第一个想到的是，过去几年里哪个卡通角色会

The first thing you thought, you're like, who's a cartoon character from the past couple of

他是个小男孩。

He's a human child.

最糟糕的就是 Rizzler。

And gross thing was the Rizzler.

这就是 Toby 的思维方式，各位。

That is Toby's mindset everyone.

好的。

Okay.

我们今天的时间就到这里。

That is all the time we have.

感谢您与我们共度早晨，祝您星期二愉快。

Thanks for starting your morning with us and have a wonderful Tuesday.

你有 trivia 问题的答案吗？

Do you have your answer to the trivia question?

美国唯一一个东西边界都由河流构成的州是爱荷华州。

The only US state whose east and west borders are formed by rivers is Iowa.

是的。

Yes.

爱荷华州。

Iowa.

东边是密西西比河，西边是密苏里河和大苏河。

Mississippi to the East and Missouri and Big Sue to the West.

给你。

There you go.

如果你想了解更多，请在节目说明或我们的Instagram上报名参加Trivia之夜。

If you want more, sign up for the trivia night in the show notes or on our Instagram.

要与我们联系，非常简单。

And for getting in touch with us, it's easy.

只需发送邮件至 morningbrewdaily@morningbrew.com，或在Instagram上私信我们 @m b daily show。

Just send a note to morningbrewdaily@morningbrew.com or DM us on Instagram at m b daily show.

让我们播放片尾字幕。

Let's roll the credits.

艾米莉·米利龙是我们执行制片人。

Emily Milliron is our executive producer.

雷蒙德·娄是我们制片人。

Raymond Lou is our producer.

我们的助理制片人是奥利维亚·格雷厄姆和奥利维亚·莱克。

Our associate producers are Olivia Graham and Olivia Lake.

发型和化妆团队正前往全国最棒的披萨城市——康涅狄格州的纽黑文。

Hair and makeup is driving up to the best city for pizza in the entire country, New Haven, Connecticut.

德文·埃默里是我们公司的总裁，我们的节目由Morning Brew制作。

Devin Emery is our president, and our show is a production of Morning Brew.

很棒的节目，丹妮莉丝。

Great show, Danielle.

我们明天再播一遍。

Let's run it back tomorrow.