年末我们钟爱的隐藏瑰宝股票

你的节日购物清单上还有东西要买吗？

Do you still have some items to buy on your holiday shopping list?

你的节日采购清单呢？

What about your holiday stock shopping list?

今天是12月18日，星期四。

Today is Thursday, December 18.

欢迎收听《傻瓜金钱》。

Welcome to Motley Fool Money.

今天我是你们的主持人杰森·霍尔。

I'm your host today, Jason Hall.

我今天邀请了傻瓜分析师丹·卡普林格和乔恩·夸斯，一起讨论一些我们最喜欢的隐藏宝石股，这些股票在2025年即将结束时看起来非常值得买入。

And I'm joined by Motley Fool analysts, Dan Kapplinger and Jon Quas to discuss some of our favorite hidden gem stocks that look like great buys as 2025 comes to a close.

准备好迎接一场有趣的傻瓜圆桌讨论吧。

Get ready for a fun foolish roundtable discussion.

如果我说‘隐藏宝石’，你可能以为我在谈论一些没人听说过的冷门小公司。

If I say hidden gems, you probably think I'm talking about small esoteric companies that nobody's ever heard of.

对吧？

Right?

确实如此，但隐藏的宝藏并不只存在于这些地方。

And that's true, but it's not the only place that you can find hidden gems.

在今天的节目中，我们介绍了三个行业巨头及其各自领域。

And on today's show, we have three giants and their respective industries.

Airbnb 就是这些主导型企业之一。

Airbnb is one of those dominant companies.

约翰，是你把它提出来的。

And, John, you brought it to the table.

现在人们一提到短期住宿行业，就会想到这个名字。

It's a name that people think of when describing the entire short term stays industry now.

它甚至已经变成了一个动词。

It's become the verb too.

自上市首日交易以来，股价几乎翻了一倍，但一个月后达到峰值，此后在2021年初大幅下跌。

Since the first day of trading post IPO, the stock's up almost double, but it peaked like a month later, and it's way down since then in early twenty twenty one.

约翰，为什么你觉得 Airbnb 是一只值得买入的隐藏宝藏股票？

John, why is this on your list as a hidden gem stock worth buying?

嗯。

Yeah.

让我先给你一个关于 Airbnb 的电梯演讲。

Well, let me give you my elevator pitch here for Airbnb to start it off.

人们并没有放弃这种短期租赁模式。

So people aren't giving up this short term rental model.

Airbnb 是这个领域的主导者，我认为它拥有品牌护城河。

Airbnb is the dominant player in the space, and I think it has a brand moat.

而且它的现金流充裕，很少有公司能做到这一点。

And it's printing cash like few companies do.

最终，这些因素应该会让 Airbnb 的股票成为赢家。

Eventually, these factors should make Airbnb stock a winner.

我知道它近几年表现不佳，但我认为它最终会迎头赶上。

I know it hasn't performed great in recent years, but I think that it will eventually catch up.

让我们谈谈我喜欢的隐藏宝藏股票的一个特质，那就是在不断扩大的市场中保持合理增长。

Let let let's talk about one of the traits I I like of a a hidden gem, and that's reasonable growth in an expanding market.

因此，Airbnb的收入以两位数的速度增长，最近一个季度增长了10%，预计下一个季度将保持高个位数增长。

So Airbnb is growing its revenue at a double digit pace, 10% in the most recent quarter, expecting high single digit in the upcoming quarter.

但这并非爆炸性增长，而是合理的增长。

But that know, it's not red hot, but that is reasonable growth.

而且，市场研究显示，整个行业未来仍将持续增长。

And there's market research pointing to ongoing growth in this space as a whole.

你知道，AirDNA是发布此类报告的第三方机构之一。

And, you know, AirDay AirDNA is one of the the third parties that puts out reports on this.

让我觉得特别有趣的是，AirDNA的数据显示，许多房东愿意将他们的房源发布在多个平台上，而这实际上是大多数人的做法。

And what's so interesting to me is that AirDNA has showed that there are rental property owners who are willing to put their listing on multiple platforms, and that's kind of the majority.

但如果你只独家发布，那就意味着你没有在Airbnb的竞争对手平台上上架。

But if you're only listing exclusively, you're not listing with Airbnb's competitors.

你只在Airbnb上独家上架。

You're you're listing on Airbnb exclusively.

所以要么是Airbnb，要么是Airbnb Plus，但绝不会离开Airbnb。

And so it's either Airbnb alone or Airbnb Plus, but never without Airbnb.

这对我来说展示了这里的护城河，也是我喜欢它在这个扩张市场中的原因之一。

That to me shows the moat here and one of the reasons I like it in this expanding market.

你还有其他喜欢的地方。

There's more you like too.

是的。

Yeah.

当然。

For sure.

所以我还喜欢那些展现出不懈驱动力和好奇心、不断寻找新商业机会的公司。

So I also like companies that exhibit this trait of having this relentless drive and curiosity to finding new business opportunities.

Airbnb绝对是其中之一。

Airbnb is definitely one of those.

因此，今年它在体验和服务上投资了2亿美元。

So it's invested $200,000,000 this year in experiences and services.

当你查看其第三季度的预订量时，有一半并不附属于住宿。

And when you look at its bookings in the third quarter, half weren't attached to a place to stay.

我说的是体验和服务。

I'm talking about an experiences and, services.

人们住在新的地方，可能会额外预订一项体验。

So people stay in a new place, and maybe they'll book an experience on top of that.

但现在有一半的体验并不附带住宿，人们纯粹是为了体验而参与。

But half of the experiences now don't have a place attached to it, so they're doing it exclusively for the experience.

这是一个有趣的趋势。

And that's kind of an interesting trend.

公司在这方面进行投资，似乎取得了成效。

Company investing in that and seems to be paying off.

管理层也提到，嘿。

And management's also talked about, hey.

我们每年都会推出几个新的商业创意。

We're gonna launch a couple new businesses ideas every single year.

这无疑是盲目尝试，但公司手头有充裕的现金。

This is throwing spaghetti at the wall for sure, but it has extra cash on hand.

因此，它有能力投资这些新点子。

So it can afford to invest in these new ideas.

你看看整体情况。

You look at the whole thing.

它的股价是自由现金流的18倍。

It trades at 18 times its free cash flow.

这个估值我认同。

That's a valuation I can get behind.

它正在回购股票，流通股数正在减少。

It's buying back shares, the share count is coming down.

同时还在投资新的机会。

And it's investing in new opportunities.

关键是这一点。

And here's the thing.

它的竞争地位让投资者能够拥有耐心的资本。

Its competitive position does afford investors the luxury of patience.

如果它正被竞争对手超越，或者在烧钱，你就不可能在这里如此耐心。

If it was being out competed, if it was burning cash, you wouldn't have the ability to be very patient here.

但因为它如此强大，你可以耐心等待这些新想法逐步见效。

But because it is so strong, you can be patient while it waits for some of these new ideas to work out.

约翰，我我是

John, I'm a I'm a

我对这种选择权能带来下一波增长不太确信。

little less convinced that optionality is going to lead to that next leg of growth.

但核心业务是一个绝佳的业务。

But the core business is a wonderful business.

你提到了估值。

And you mentioned the valuation.

这表明其他投资者并不一定认为它是一家出色的企业。

And that says that other investors don't necessarily think it's a wonderful business.

所以，那里或许有一些安全边际，或者利率下降也可能成为推动业务发展的催化剂。

So maybe maybe some margin of safety there, plus or maybe interest rates falling a catalyst for the business moving forward too.

我们很快就会知道这一点。

We'll we'll find out about that.

但是，丹，你说还有其他让你印象深刻的地方。

But, Dan, you say there's something else that stands out to you.

是的。

Yeah.

有几件事。

There's a couple of things.

其中之一是，联合创始人兼首席执行官布莱恩·切斯基采取了一项很棒的策略，他本人会住在不同的Airbnb房源里。

One is that, cofounder CEO Brian Chesky has done a great strategy where he is actually living in a different Airbnb property.

他每周或者每几周就会换一次，类似这样。

It's like on a weekly basis or every couple of weeks, something like that.

随着我年纪渐长，开始更多地旅行，我发现这个想法对我也越来越有吸引力。

As I get older, as I start to travel more, I'm finding that is more appealing an idea for me as well.

我认为，这可能会引起一些即将退休、有更多时间在路上旅行的年长旅客的共鸣。

And I think that that may resonate with some older travelers as they get to a point where they're thinking about retirement, have more time to spend on the road.

只是摆脱酒店思维，这与你在Airbnb上获得的体验完全不同。

Just settling that hotel mindset, it's just different from what you get from an Airbnb.

因此，我认为这里有很大的潜力。

And so I think there's a lot of potential there.

过去一年中，我在自己的旅行中发现，Airbnb实际上开始出现传统酒店的交叉列表。

The other thing that I have run into in my own travels in the past year is that Airbnb is actually starting to get some cross listings from traditional hotels.

让我惊讶的是，Airbnb上的酒店房间价格有时比聚合网站上的价格还要便宜。

And what I was shocked at is the pricing on the hotel rooms on Airbnb is sometimes cheaper than what you get from aggregator sites.

我甚至遇到过一个情况，那是一家万豪酒店。

I even ran into one situation where it happened to be a Marriott property.

我是万豪旅享家的忠诚会员。

I'm a Marriott Bonvoy loyalty member.

作为忠诚会员，我在Airbnb上看到的价格竟然比我自己能拿到的还要好，这让我作为会员有点不爽，但这确实说明了酒店业主在试图最大化收益时的吸引力。

There's a better price on Airbnb than I could get as a loyalty member, which kind of ticked me off as a loyalty member, but it does speak to the appeal that hotel owners have when they're like trying to get as much money as they possibly can.

最大化利用，把房源上架到所有平台是最明智的做法。

Maxing it out, putting it on all platforms is the smart thing to do.

但我从未想过传统酒店会对Airbnb如此感兴趣。

But I just never expected a traditional hotel to be so interested in Airbnb.

我认为这也是一个潜在的增长动力。

I think that that that's a potential growth driver as well.

你看，这种灵活性我认为很有吸引力，就像亚马逊在其平台上为商品库存做的广告业务一样，消费者商品领域竞争激烈，Airbnb也是如此。

See, that's the kind of optionality that I think could be compelling, and it's a little bit of maybe Amazon's ad business on its own platform for inventory where there's a lot of competition for for consumer goods, and it's the same way for Airbnb.

这也让我意识到，Airbnb，你知道吗？

And it also says to me that Airbnb, you know what?

我们并不害怕酒店业。

We're not afraid of the hotel industry.

来给我们一些钱吧。

Come give us some money.

把你们的房产放到我们的平台上吧。

Put your put your put your, properties on our platform.

我们会从你这里拿走一点钱。

We'll take a little money from you.

我们还是会赢。

We're still gonna win.

接下来，丹将阐述在竞争加剧和高层人事变动背景下，露露柠檬的投资价值。

Up next, Dan makes the case for Lululemon in the midst of growing competition and a change in the c suite.

请继续关注。

Stay with us.

大家好，听众朋友们。

Hello, listeners.

我是安·博格尔，作家、博主，以及播客《我接下来该读什么？》的创作者。

This is Anne Bogel, author, blogger, and creator of the podcast, what should I read next?

自2016年以来，我一直帮助读者为阅读生活带来更多快乐与愉悦。

Since 2016, I've been helping readers bring more joy and delight into their reading lives.

每周，我都会邀请一位嘉宾，一起探讨与书籍和阅读相关的话题，帮助他们找到下一本想读的书。

Every week, I tag all things books and reading with a guest and guide them in discovering their next read.

他们分享了三本他们喜爱的书、一本他们不喜欢的书，以及最近在读的内容。

They share three books they love, one book they don't, and what they've been reading lately.

我还会推荐三本书，他们可能也会喜欢。

And I recommend three titles they may enjoy reading next.

嘉宾们表示，我们的对话就像心理治疗，帮助他们解决多年来困扰其阅读生活的各种问题，甚至可能影响他们余生的阅读体验。

Guests have said our conversations are like therapy, troubleshooting issues that have plagued their reading lives for years and possibly the rest of their lives as well.

当然，我们也会推荐契合当下需求的书籍，无论是希望引发或促进人生转变的深刻反思之作，还是轻松愉快的畅销书，帮助他们逃离工作、学业等各方面的压力。

And, of course, recommending books that meet the moment, whether they are looking for deep introspection to spur or encourage a life change or a frothy page turner to help them escape the stresses of work, school, everything.

你会更了解自己作为读者的一面，并且离开时一定会充满信心，带着一份全新的书单，去尝试各种新书和新作者。

You'll learn something about yourself as a reader, and you'll definitely walk away confident to choose your next read with a whole list of new books and authors to try.

所以，每周二请收听《你该读什么？》。

So join us each Tuesday for what should I read next?

现在就通过你收听本播客的平台订阅，并访问我们的网站 whatshouldireadnextpodcast.com 了解更多信息。

Subscribe now wherever you're listening to this podcast, and visit our website, whatshouldireadnextpodcast.com to find out more.

欢迎回到《富比士金钱》。

Welcome back to Motley Fool Money.

从长远来看，露露柠檬一直是一个巨大的赢家。

Over the long term, Lululemon has been a huge winner.

自上市以来，其股价上涨了15倍以上。

It's up more than 15 x since going public.

但近年来，它并不是一项良好的投资。

But in recent years, it has not been a great investment.

投资者自2023年高点以来已经亏损。

Investors have have lost money from the peak back in 2023.

可以追溯到2020年。

Can go all the way back to 2020.

2020年初以来，股价仍然下跌。

Beginning of 2020, the stock is still down.

这家公司的吸引力有所减弱。

The business has lost some of its luster.

丹，如今露露柠檬发生了什么，让你觉得它值得买入？

Dan, what's going on with Lululemon today that makes it compelling to you as a buy?

我长期关注露露柠檬，有趣的是，那些最初看似颠覆规则的股票，后来却逐渐变得像隐藏宝藏型股票一样。

I've been following Lululemon for a long time, and it's interesting to me how stocks that arguably start out more looking like rule breakers can end up emulating hidden gem style stocks later on.

我们都知道露露柠檬的瑜伽服饰业务，它彻底改变了零售行业。

You know, we all know Lululemon's yoga apparel business, it changed the retail industry.

它开创了一个全新的品类——所谓的运动休闲服饰。

It opened up an entire new category of these so called athleisure products.

它为办公室的休闲星期五赋予了新的含义。

It kinda brought a new meaning to casual Fridays at the office.

它起到了至关重要的作用。

It's it's been instrumental.

它还催生了大量其他专业零售概念。

It spawned a whole bunch of other specialty retail concepts as well.

业务曾经表现非常出色，但在2023年底、2024年初股价短暂突破500美元后，我们看到股价暴跌了70%。

Business had done really well, but after briefly topping $500 a share late in 2023, early in 2024, We've seen the stock plunge 70%.

那么，到底发生了什么？

Well, what happened?

增长趋势放缓。

Growth trends slowed.

甚至在核心的北美市场出现了逆转。

They even reversed in the core North American market.

即使现在，公司对近期前景仍持谨慎态度。

And even now the company is guarded about its immediate outlook.

似乎正在试图触底，但即使在最近一个季度，我们仍看到北美地区同店销售额下降。

Seems like it's trying to bottom, but even most recent quarter, we saw same store sales in the North American segment drop.

因此，目前关于露露柠檬有很多疑问，但我关注的是，我们曾见过露露柠檬展现出韧性。

So there's a lot of questions about Lululemon right now, but the thing I focus on is we have seen Lululemon be resilient before.

回溯到大约十年前，也就是2012到2014年左右，股价曾下跌了约50%。

Turn back the clock, what, ten, eleven years or so from around 2012 to 2014, the stock was down about 50%.

发生了什么？

What happened?

瑜伽裤突然变得透光。

Yoga pants were suddenly see through.

我们当时遇到了一系列质量控制问题，这些问题因时任CEO、现前CEO兼创始人的一些言论而加剧——我就不在这里重复了——但公司在经历这场大风波后，花了相当长的时间才重回正轨。

We had all these quality control issues that was exacerbated by some comments from the, then CEO, now former CEO and founder, which I won't bother to repeat here, but it took a while for the company to right the ship after that big boondoggle.

但回报是，到2021年，该股票涨了十倍。

But the prod but the the payoff was the stock was a 10 bagger by 2021.

所以回到今天。

So come back to today.

我们现在正面临一个同样有趣的时刻。

Now we're facing a similarly interesting moment.

Lululemon 本月早些时候刚刚公布了季度业绩，同时也宣布首席执行官卡尔文·麦克唐纳将离职。

Lululemon just announced its quarterly results earlier this month, but it also said CEO Calvin McDonald is stepping down.

股东们对这一决定表示满意。

And shareholders were happy with that move.

最近，我们看到激进投资者入场了。

More recently, we've seen activist investors come in.

埃利奥特管理公司似乎已持有Lululemon股票十亿美元的仓位，并推荐了前拉夫劳伦高管简·尼尔森接任此职。

Elliott Management has apparently taken a billion dollar stake in Lululemon stock, has suggested a former Ralph Lauren executive named Jane Nielsen for the job.

所以目前这只股票正处于关键时期。

So very much the stock in play right now.

许多投资者都在观望，这是否会成为Lululemon走出低迷的转折点？

A lot of investors trying to see, is this the thing that breaks Lululemon out of its slump?

是的。

Yeah.

这很有趣，丹，我们即将迎来CEO的更替，我有点担心新管理团队上台后会矫枉过正，因为我真的不认为情况像表面看起来那么糟糕。

It's so interesting, Dan, that we're going to experience a a change here at CEO, and I'm a little bit worried about a new management team coming in here and overcorrecting because I I really don't think things are as bad as it appears.

我认为服装业务有好坏之分。

I think you have good apparel businesses and bad ones.

差的业务会积压库存，导致打折促销，进而使利润率彻底崩溃。

And bad ones have piling up inventory, and that leads to markdowns, and it leads to a complete disintegration of its profit margins.

看看Lululemon，情况并非如此。

You look at Lululemon, that's not what's happening.

这是一家好公司。

It's a good business.

库存没问题。

Inventory is fine.

利润率也没问题。

Margins are fine.

只是增长放缓了。

It's just having a slowdown.

所以我担心新来的管理者可能会过度调整，而实际上，我们只需要保持现状，做好维持客户吸引力该做的事。

And so I'm worried that a new manager could come in here and overcorrect when in reality, it's kind of stay the course and do what you need to do to keep appealing to your customers.

约翰，我同意你所说的很多观点。

I agree with a lot of what you said, John.

我承认，我对最近这种为陷入暂时困境的消费品公司聘请明星CEO的趋势不太信服。

And I will admit, I'm less than convinced that this recent trend of trying to pick up superstar CEOs for consumer goods companies that are going through some temporary problems.

我只是觉得，回归基本功更重要。

I just don't think that's as important as just going back to basics.

让我们做出好产品。

Let's make some good products.

让我们建立一个忠实客户的核心群体，让他们感受到被重视。

Let's build up a core base of loyal customers, make them feel valued.

但问题是。

But here's the thing.

投资者已经将露露柠檬的股价压得如此之低，以至于他们基本上认为这里几乎没有重新点燃增长动力的可能。

Investors have bid down Lululemon stocks so far that they're essentially assuming no real chance of successfully reigniting the growth fires here.

我没有那么悲观。

I'm not that pessimistic.

我认为，新上任的高管或许能够扭转这种负面情绪，让股价重新走向正确的方向。

I think somebody new in the corner office might be able to reverse that negative sentiment and get the stock moving in the right direction again.

你知道，我认为竞争确实是一个威胁，但同时也提醒我们，这是一个非常有吸引力的业务。

You know, I think competition's a real threat, but it's also an important reminder that it's a really compelling business.

竞争对手进入这个领域并不是为了亏钱。

Competitors are not jumping in this to lose money.

我们还看到其他零售商、其他服装企业因为失去了对分销渠道的控制而陷入困境。

And other we've seen other retailer, other apparel, businesses that have struggled because they kinda lost control of distribution.

Lululemon的不同之处在于，它仍然对自身的分销渠道拥有很大控制权。

Lululemon's different because it it still has so much control over its distribution footprint.

而且，我确实同意你们两位的看法，这与其说是转型，不如说是一次重新调整。

And and I do think that I agree with both of you that this is less a turnaround and more of a recalibration.

但股价可能仍反映了未来将面临更多麻烦的预期。

But the stock is still priced maybe for more trouble ahead.

是的。

Yeah.

好的。

Okay.

接下来，我们还有一个。

Up next, we've got one more.

我有一个七巨头股票，我认为它比你想象的更像一个被忽视的宝藏。

I've got a mag seven stock that I think is more hidden gem than you might think.

请继续关注。

Stick with us.

欢迎回到《富比士金钱》。

Welcome back to Motley Fool Money.

为了结束今天的节目，我想和大家聊聊阿尔法贝特公司。

To wrap up today's show, I wanna talk about alphabet, guys.

但我们这里到底在谈什么？

But what are we talking about here?

你知道吗，我以为你说这是一个被忽视的宝藏。

You know, I thought you said this was a hidden gem.

对吧？

Right?

阿尔法贝特，更像是明目张胆地藏着。

Alphabet, more like hiding in plain sight.

四月份它可能确实隐藏得很好，但现在呢？

Hidden this was April, maybe, but now?

是的。

Yeah.

我觉得这很公平。

I think that's fair.

从今年年初开始，股价上涨了55%，但在四月份低点时的大幅抛售之后，股价实际上已经翻了一倍。

From the beginning of the year, the stock's up 55%, but that big sell off during the the lows in April, the stock's basically doubled since then.

它显然已经从被视为人工智能侵蚀广告驱动搜索业务的恐惧对象，转变为如今被看作人工智能的最大受益者之一。

And it's clearly gone from being perceived as a feared loser from AI eroding that ad driven search business to now one of the expected winners from artificial intelligence.

现在我觉得这是对的。

Now I think I think it's true.

我们正看到Gemini获得真正的强劲势头。

It's we're seeing it's getting really serious traction with Gemini.

它的云服务业务正在蓬勃发展。

Its cloud services business is booming.

而且我们还发现，即使搜索业务受到人工智能的影响，广告业务实际上也表现得相当稳健。

We've And also figured out that the ad business is it's actually kind of holding up pretty well, even as we do see search be affected by AI.

但我认为，它之所以能入选我今天的推荐股票，是因为这是我最近才买入的股票。

But I think the reason it makes the cut for me and of the stocks that we've discussed today, it's the one that I have actually most recently bought.

正是因为这些因素，以及阿尔法贝特所具备的其他优势，使其处于获胜的位置。

It's because of those things and all of the other things that Alphabet is positioned to win from.

是的。

Yes.

这包括搜索。

That includes search.

这包括云中的AI。

That includes AI in the cloud.

但本质上，它还附带了一个Netflix，那就是YouTube。

But it's basically got a Netflix bolted onto it with YouTube.

YouTube是一个非常有趣的业务，因为它与内容创作者共享利润，因此内容创作的风险低得多。

And it's a cool little thing with, YouTube is it's a much lower risk content development engine because it shares in the profits with content creators.

哦，

Oh,

通过

by

顺便说一下，通过YouTube TV，它也已成为美国最大的有线电视公司之一。

the way, it's emerged as one of the largest cable TV companies in The US too with YouTube TV.

而且我们也在不断接近自动驾驶汽车真正落地的时刻。

And we also we continue to kinda creep closer to autonomous vehicles becoming a real thing.

Waymo每周的乘车次数已接近五十万次，他们很快就要达到每周一百万次的目标。

Waymo is approaching a half a million rides a week, and they're aiming to hit a million rides a week really soon.

最终，这将是一个巨大的业务。

Eventually, that's gonna be a big business.

它看起来会像一夜之间的成功，但实际上，它花了十五到二十年才建成。

It's gonna feel like an overnight success, but it will have actually taken fifteen to twenty years to build out.

我认为这正是Alphabet被视为隐藏宝石的原因。

Well, I think that's exactly why Alphabet is a hidden gem.

并不是因为它未被发现，而是因为投资者往往以单一维度来看待它，而实际上，正如你指出的，杰森，这家公司在方方面面都能取得成功。

It's not because it's undiscovered, but rather because investors tend to think about it one dimensionally when in reality, as you point out, Jason, this business can win every way from Thursday in so many different ways.

作为一名分析师，我几乎跟不上它正在做和取得成功的所有事情。

As an analyst, I can barely keep up with everything that it is doing and succeeding in.

因此，选择权是一个无法通过任何估值指标衡量的商业特质。

So optionality is a business trait that we can't measure by any valuation metric.

没有任何股票筛选器能捕捉到这一点，但从投资角度来看，它却极其重要。

There isn't a stock screener that's going to pull this out, but it's so important as from an investing perspective.

回顾过去众多股市赢家，它们都具备这一特质，而Alphabet无疑也拥有它，并且其业务中还存在被低估的选择权方面。

And just looking at the plethora of past stock market winners, they had that trait and Alphabet certainly has it, and there are underappreciated optionality aspects of the business.

杰森，恭喜你最近完成了这笔买入。

Jason, kudos to you for making this purchase recently.

当你看到一只股票在你有机会加仓之前就已大幅上涨时，这总是很难应对的。

I think it's always hard when you've seen a stock really take off before you've had a chance to really add to your position.

我足够幸运。

I was fortunate enough.

几年前我就认为Alphabet是一只被错估、被忽视的股票，即使许多评论家认为它错过了人工智能、错过了云计算，我仍在持续加仓。

I saw Alphabet as sort of this mispriced, underappreciated stock years ago, and I've been adding even as many commentators dismiss the company for missing out on AI, missing out on cloud computing.

但Alphabet证明了他们是错的，如今这只股票的估值比以往更加合理了。

Well, Alphabet proved that wrong, and now the stock is much more fairly valued than it used to be.

不过，未来仍有增长潜力。

There's still potential, though, for future gains.

干得漂亮，杰森。

Good on you, Jason.

好了，各位。

Alright, guys.

我还有一个最后的问题来收尾。

I got one last question to wrap this up.

今天我们谈了三只股票。

We've talked about three stocks today.

你们觉得五年后哪只股票会是最大的赢家？

Which do you think is the biggest winner in five years?

约翰，你先说。

John, you go first.

嗯。

Yeah.

我真不想这么说。

I hate to say it.

你们都知道我有多喜欢Airbnb，但我相信露露柠檬在未来五年内实现价值翻倍的路径最清晰。

Y'all know how much I love Airbnb, but I believe that Lululemon has the clearest path to doubling in value over the next five years.

我认为这三只股票都非常安全。

I think all three of these stocks are really safe.

我真的这么觉得。

I really do.

但对我来说，露露柠檬在增长率和估值之间取得了很好的平衡。

But Lululemon to me, it has a really good balance between its growth rate and its valuation.

也许是这两个因素之间最有利的平衡。

Maybe the most favorable balance between those two factors.

因此，对我来说，它是今天最佳的股票。

And so for me, it has the nod of the best stock today.

杰森，我得说，我完全同意约翰的观点，这不仅仅是因为那是我的选择，但我还得补充一点。

Jason, I've gotta say, I agree with John a 100 and not just because it was my pick, but I have to say this too.

我希望它是谷歌。

I wish that it would be Alphabet.

我希望谷歌在未来五年内能超越Lululemon的表现，因为我持有更多的谷歌股票。

I wish that Alphabet would be able to over outperform Lululemon over the next five years because I own a lot more Alphabet stock.

我认为谷歌的表现会很不错。

I think Alphabet's gonna do just fine.

我非常乐观，希望Airbnb能终于迎来转机，开始良好执行，获得股东的认可，让股价重回正轨。

And I'm really optimistic and hopeful Airbnb might finally catch a break here, start executing well enough, get some appreciation from shareholders, get the stock moving back in the right direction.

是的。

Yeah.

Airbnb总是被我归为太难把握的类别。

Airbnb just keeps landing on my too hard pile.

它的估值非常有吸引力。

The valuation is really compelling.

我只是在等待更多证据，证明这些其他因素真能帮助它实现突破，让我们获得更高的估值回报。

Just I'm waiting to see more evidence that that these other things are gonna really help it deliver, and we're gonna be reward rewarded with a higher multiple.

Alphabet的市销率现在达到了有史以来最高的水平。

Alphabet, this is just about the most expensive multiple on a sales basis it's ever traded for.

所以它并不便宜。

So it's not cheap.

所以，我们仍然依赖于我之前提到的其他所有因素。

So there's still all the other things I laid out, we're counting on.

市场对这家公司寄予了很高的期望。

The market is expecting big things from the company.

所以，我同意。

So I I agree.

我回到认为这个群体可能性最高的想法上。

I come back to thinking of this this group, the highest probability.

我同意。

I agree.

我认为最具安全边际的是那家业务已得到验证、实力远超股价所反映的公司，我觉得Lululemon也是如此。

I think the best margin of safety, the business that's proven, the business that's a lot stronger than the stock is treating it like, I think that's Lululemon too.

我同意。

I agree.

那怎么样？

How about that?

我们三个人都同意。

All three of us.

这还是第一次，杰森。

It's a first, Jason.

我不确定以前是否发生过这种情况。

I'm not sure that's ever happened before.

是的。

Yeah.

这要么是件非常好的事，要么是件非常糟糕的事。

It's either a really good thing or really bad thing.

对吧，约翰？

Right, John?

这无疑是一个令人震惊的进展。

This is a shocking development for sure.

好的。

Okay.

各位，今天这真是一场愉快的交流。

Guys, this has been a lot of fun.

丹，约翰，非常感谢你们今天参与我的节目。

Dan, John, thank you both so much for joining me today.

和往常一样，节目中的嘉宾可能对其讨论的股票有利益关联，而The Motley Fool也可能对这些股票有正式的买入或卖出建议。

As always, people on the program may have interest in the stocks they talk about, and The Motley Fool may have formal recommendations for or against.

因此，不要仅凭你听到的内容来买卖股票。

So don't buy or sell stocks based solely on what you hear.

所有个人理财内容均遵循The Motley Fool的编辑标准，且未经广告商批准。

All personal finance content follows Motley Fool editorial standards and is not approved by advertisers.

广告为赞助内容，仅提供信息参考。

Advertisements are sponsored content and provided for informational purposes only.

要查看我们的完整广告披露，请参阅我们的节目备注。

To see our full advertising disclosure, please check out our show notes.

对于约翰·夸斯、丹·卡芬格以及整个《富达金钱》团队，我是杰森·霍尔。

For John Quas, Dan Kaffinger, and the entire Motley Fool Money team, I'm Jason Hall.

我们明天再见。

We'll see you tomorrow.