如何审查并重新平衡你的投资组合

现在仍有时间审查并可能重新平衡您的投资组合。

There's still be time to review and perhaps rebalance your portfolio.

但您该如何做呢？

But how should you do it?

更多相关内容，请收听本周末《富满财富》的个人理财特辑。

That and more on this Saturday personal finance edition of Motley Full Money.

我是罗伯特·布罗克汉。

I'm Robert Brokham.

本周，我们将与财务规划师肖恩·盖茨探讨，如何在迎接新年之际评估并可能调整您的投资组合。

And this week, speak with financial planner Sean Gates about how to evaluate and perhaps adjust your portfolio as we prepare to enter a new year.

但首先，让我们回顾一些近期出版物中的见解。

But first, let's highlight some insights from some recent publications.

现在是一年中许多金融服务公司发布2026年展望的时节。

Now it's a time of year when many financial services firms issued their 2026 outlooks.

这些报告大多可供查阅，我都觉得很有意思，但我会重点分享劳赞妮·桑德斯和凯文·戈登合著的嘉信理财最新展望报告中的一些要点。

Many are available, and I find them all interesting, but I'll just highlight a few takeaways from the recent publication of Schwab's outlook for stocks and the economy co written by Lizanne Saunders and Kevin Gordon.

报告的一个主题是持续存在的K型经济，之所以称为K型，是因为高收入美国人经济状况良好，而低收入美国人则因负担能力和工作不确定性而陷入困境，两者之间出现了巨大分化。

One of the themes of the report is the ongoing k shaped economy, so called because the divergence in fortunes between higher income Americans who are doing pretty well and lower income Americans who are struggling due to affordability challenges and job uncertainty.

明年经济将继续处于施瓦布所称的‘情绪低迷’状态，即消费者情绪悲观，但GDP仍持续增长。

The economy next year will continue to be in what Schwab calls a vibe prescient, a dour consumer sentiment while GDP continues to grow.

为了说明这一点，报告引用了密歇根大学消费者情绪调查与经济咨询委员会消费者信心调查之间前所未有的分歧：前者主要调查更偏向工薪阶层、关注家庭生计的受访者，后者则更多涵盖高收入群体，而前者对失业的预期持续上升，后者对股市前景却异常乐观。

To illustrate this, the report cited an unprecedented divide between increasing unemployment expectations per the University of Michigan's consumer sentiment survey, which tends to survey more working class respondents with, you know, kitchen table concerns, and the unusually upbeat outlook for the stock market from the conference board consumer confidence survey, which tends to have more higher income respondents.

报告指出：‘结果是信心出现了典型的两极分化，典型的K型格局。’

As the report stated, quote, the result is a split personality and confidence textbook k, end of quote.

尽管情绪低迷，经济仍可能继续增长，原因之一是7月通过的《一项宏伟法案》带来的刺激作用，该法案预计将在2026年为GDP贡献0.7%，2027年也接近这一水平，但代价是加剧了向联邦政府的借贷。

One reason the economy may continue to grow despite this vibe prescient is the stimulus from the one big beautiful bill passed in July, which is projected to add 0.7% to GDP in 2026 and close to that in 2027, but at the cost of accelerating borrowing from Uncle Sam.

施瓦布报告估计，未来十年联邦债务占GDP的比重将升至125%以上，而如果没有这项法案，这一比例本只会——我用引号强调‘只’——略高于115%。

The Schwab report estimates that the percentage of federal debt to GDP will rise to more than a 125% over the next decade, whereas it would have been just, and I put that just in air quotes, a bit over a 115% without the bill.

施瓦布报告中的另一个细节是：总统任期的第二年通常是股市表现最弱的一年。

One other tidbit from the Schwab report, the second year of a presidential term is usually the weakest for the stock market.

自1928年以来，总统任期第二年的股市有54%的时间实现盈利，而四年平均盈利概率为67%，平均回报率为3.3%。

Since 1928, the second year is profitable 54% of the time compared to an average of 67% for all four years with an average return of 3.3%.

接下来，我们将继续探讨通货膨胀这一主题，引用波士顿学院退休研究中心的艾莉西亚·穆内尔近期在《市场观察》上发表的文章。

For our next item, we'll continue on the theme of inflation with a recent MarketWatch article from Alicia Munell of the Center for Retirement Research at Boston College.

根据穆内尔的说法，过去五年中，物价总体上涨了25%。

According to Munell, prices have risen 25% in total over the past five years.

然而，大多数家庭预算中最大的三项开支——住房、交通和食品——涨幅更大。

However, the three biggest items in most household budgets, housing, transportation, and food, have risen more.

与此同时，收入增长了27%。

Incomes, meanwhile, have risen 27%.

因此，尽管工资可能跟上了整体物价的上涨，但穆内尔写道：‘原地踏步是不够的。’

So while wages may have been keeping up with overall prices, Meenal writes that, quote, standing still is not enough.

大多数人希望在五年内看到生活水平有所提高，因此他们觉得自己正在落后。

Most would like to see their standard of living improve over a five year span, thus they feel like they're falling behind, end of quote.

现在是本周数字：67.8。

And now the number of the week, which is 67.8.

这是波音公司员工在65岁退休后的平均寿命，而55岁退休的员工则活到了83岁。

That was the average age of death of Boeing employees who retired at age 65, whereas employees who retired at age 55 lived to 83.

换句话说，早点退休，活得更久。

In other words, retire sooner, live longer.

只有一个问题。

There's only one problem.

这并不真实。

It's not true.

这些数据来自一张长期在互联网上传播的图表，最近又再次流传，但早在二十多年前就被辟谣了。

These stats come from a graphic that has been passed around the Internet for a long time, including recently, but it was debunked more than twenty years ago.

退休专家迈克尔·芬卡最近在ThinkAdvisor网站上发表了一篇文章，并与同行研究员大卫·布兰切特一起研究了退休与预期寿命之间的实际关系。

Retirement expert Michael Finca recently wrote an article about it for the website ThinkAdvisor, and with the help of fellow researcher David Blanchett, looked at the actual relationship between retirement and life expectancy.

他们利用密歇根大学的健康与退休研究，分析了2012年参与者的退休状况，并追踪了十年后仍有存活的比例。

Using the University of Michigan's health and retirement study, they looked at the retirement status of participants in 2012 and what percentage were still alive a decade later.

然而，必须考虑健康因素，因为许多人因健康问题提前退休，而这也可能导致他们更早去世。

However, it's important to take health into account because many people retire sooner due to health issues, which can also result in them dying sooner.

因此，芬卡和布兰切特还考虑了参与者的自我健康评估状况，这实际上是一个相当准确的预测寿命的指标。

So Finca and Blanchett also factored in the participants' self assessed health status, which is actually a surprisingly good predictor of how long people will live.

结果与那个关于波音员工的虚假图表完全相反。

The results were the complete opposite of that made up graphic about Boeing employees.

芬卡和布兰切特发现，继续工作的人比同龄退休的人活得更久。

Finka and Blanchett found that people who continue working live longer than those of the same age who had retired.

健康状况一般或较差的人群差异最大，但即使健康状况良好的工作者，也比健康退休者更有可能长寿。

The difference was the largest for those in fair or poor health, but even workers in great health were more likely to live longer than healthy retirees.

接下来，当《富达财富》继续时，如何分析你的投资组合健康状况。

Next up, how to analyze the health of your portfolio when Motley for Money continues.

大家好，听众朋友们。

Hello, listeners.

我是安妮·博格尔，作家、博主，也是播客《我接下来该读什么？》的创作者。

This is Anne Bogle, author, blogger, and creator of the podcast, what should I read next?

自2016年以来，我一直帮助读者为阅读生活带来更多快乐与愉悦。

Since 2016, I've been helping readers bring more joy and delight into their reading lives.

每周，我都会邀请一位嘉宾，一起探讨书籍与阅读，引导他们发现下一本值得读的书。

Every week, I tag all things books and reading with a guest and guide them in discovering their next read.

他们分享了三本他们喜爱的书、一本他们不喜欢的书，以及最近在读的内容。

They share three books they love, one book they don't, and what they've been reading lately.

我还推荐了三本书，他们可能也会喜欢阅读。

And I recommend three titles they may enjoy reading next.

嘉宾们表示，我们的对话就像心理治疗，帮助他们解决多年来困扰其阅读生活的各种问题，甚至可能影响他们余生的阅读体验。

Guests have said our conversations are like therapy, troubleshooting issues that have plagued their reading lives for years and possibly the rest of their lives as well.

当然，我们会推荐契合当下需求的书籍，无论是希望引发或促进人生转变的深刻反思之作，还是轻松易读的消遣读物，帮助他们逃离工作、学业等各方面的压力。

And, of course, recommending books that meet the moment, whether they are looking for deep introspection to spur or encourage a life change or a frothy page turner to help them escape the stresses of work, school, everything.

你会更深入地了解自己作为读者的特点，并且离开时一定会充满信心，手握一份全新的书单，去尝试各种新书和新作者。

You'll learn something about yourself as a reader, and you'll definitely walk away confident to choose your next read with a whole list of new books and authors to try.

所以，每周二欢迎收听《你接下来该读什么？》。

So join us each Tuesday for what should I read next?

现在就通过你收听本播客的平台订阅，并访问我们的网站 whatshouldireadnextpodcast.com 了解更多信息。

Subscribe now wherever you're listening to this podcast, and visit our website, whatshouldireadnextpodcast.com to find out more.

现在快到2026年了，很快你就会收到所有投资账户的年终对账单。

It's almost 2026, and soon you'll be receiving your year end statements from all your investment accounts.

你还会听到很多关于在一月份审查和再平衡投资组合的建议。

You'll also hear a lot of advice about reviewing and rebalancing your portfolio in January.

但你应该怎么做？实际上需要多少调整呢？

But how should you do it, and how much rearranging is actually necessary?

前来分享见解的是认证财务规划师肖恩·盖茨。

Here to give his take is certified financial planner, Sean Gates.

欢迎回到节目，肖恩。

Welcome back to the show, Sean.

你好。

Hello.

这是一档轻松的播客。

This is an easy podcast.

把所有东西都投资黄金，然后离开一段时间就好。

Just put everything in gold and go away for a while.

我们可能会谈到这一点。

We may get to that.

你知道，我和你做朋友、做同事已经十多年了。

So you know, you and I have been friends and colleagues for over a decade.

所以我知道你自己也是一个成功的投资者。

So I know you're a successful investor yourself.

对吧？

Right?

你是一位四十多岁的男士。

You're a fellow in your forties.

你已经实现了财务自由。

You're financial independent.

你工作只是因为你想，而不是因为你必须。

You only work because you want to, not because you have to.

你也已经在金融服务行业工作了将近二十年。

You've also been in the financial service industry for almost twenty years.

那么，你是如何为自己和客户审查投资组合的呢？

So how do you go about reviewing portfolios for yourself and for your clients?

是的。

Yeah.

这是个有趣的话题。

This is a fun topic.

这有点棘手，因为你面对的是来自各行各业的投资者，他们其实并不清楚自己究竟想达成什么目标，我认为这正是再平衡的基础，对吧？

It's tricky because you get investors of all walks of life who don't really know what they're trying to accomplish, and I would say that's the foundation of rebalancing, right?

你的目标配置是多少？

What is your target allocation?

因为如果你没有目标，就不知道该往哪个方向再平衡。

Because if you don't have a target, you don't know what to rebalance towards.

目标配置通常是传统意义上的投资政策声明的功能，但其实它只是一个文件或指导理念，说明你想要去往哪里。

The target allocation is usually a function, in the old school world, we'd call it the investment policy statement, but really it's just a document or a guiding ethos on where you want to go.

所以，一份财务计划可以成为一个不错的投资政策声明。

So a financial plan could be a decent investment policy statement.

它要说明你的风险承受能力和风险偏好，并据此推导出目标配置。

And it's to say a combination of what is your risk capacity and risk tolerance, and back into that target allocation.

是像传统配置那样的六四分吗？

Is it sixtyforty like a traditional mix?

100%股票？

100% equity?

全是现金？

You know, all cash?

这些就是你如何确定目标配置的方式，然后才能进入再平衡阶段。

Those are how you would back into your target allocation, and then you get into the rebalancing that front.

当你

When you

谈到风险承受能力时，我们现在正处于市场创历史新高之际。

talk about risk tolerance, you know, we are at a point now where the market is at all time high.

过去五到十年，市场表现非常出色。

The market has done very well over the last five or ten years.

当然也遇到过一些挫折，但我认为人们对投资组合感觉还不错。

There have certainly been some speed bumps, but I think people are feeling pretty good about portfolios.

当你和客户交谈时，会不会考虑到这一点，比如建议他们适当降低风险？

Do you take that into consideration when you talk to a client and you're like, you know, maybe maybe you should dial it back.

你现在可能感觉不错，但这种感觉可能只是因为市场表现良好。

You may feel pretty good right now, but you may be feeling good because the market is doing well.

是的。

Yes.

我想说，在考虑再平衡时，估值是一个需要考虑的因素，对吧？

I I would say, you know, valuations is something to consider when you're thinking about rebalancing, right?

如果我们从整体再平衡过程的角度来看，通常有两种方法。

If we take a step back on the overall rebalancing process, right, there's typically two ways to do it.

一种是基于时间，另一种是基于某些可衡量的指标，通常是百分比偏离，但也可能涉及估值，或整体市场情绪，比如美联储降息，或其他独特的市场事件。

One based on time, and one based on certain measurable metrics, usually a percentage drift, but it could also be one of valuations, it could also be one of overall market sentiment like Fed cutting interest rates, like unique market events.

所以我认为你应该考虑这些因素，但要帮助客户理解他们的再平衡或目标配置应如何设定，需要进行大量的教育工作。

And so I do think you should take those into consideration, But you have to go through a lot of education for someone to help guide them on where their rebalancing or target allocation should be.

有一张图表，我认为你和我都非常喜爱，我知道我和梅根都非常喜欢，那就是被子图。

One chart that I think you and I are very fond of, I know me and Megan are very fond of is the quilt chart.

因此，被子图是一种非常常见的图表，它按年份显示各类资产的表现，并将它们堆叠在一起。

So the quilt chart is a very common chart that shows which asset classes have done the best on a year by year basis, stacked over one another.

你可以查看2024年，发现那一年黄金表现非常好，涨幅达20%，但债券却下跌了5%。

So you could look at 2024 and see that gold did very well that year, you know, up 20%, but then bonds were negative 5%.

一个配置良好的多元化投资组合通常会位于被子图的中间位置，这与风险承受能力密切相关，对吧？

And a well diversified portfolio is usually going to fit somewhere in the middle of that quilt chart, and that ties back to the risk tolerance, right?

或者作为投资者，你是希望获得一种更平稳的回报曲线，回撤幅度更小、波动性更低，还是希望瞄准那些能带来更高回报但伴随更大波动性的资产类别？

Or as an investor, do you want that sort of smooth return profile with less magnitude of drawdown, or less volatility, or do you want to target some of those asset classes that can give you a juiced rate of return, but higher amount of volatility?

然后，你可以将这一点与你提到的特定市场事件、某些估值水平联系起来——当估值过高时，你可能会减少激进型资产的配置，并在年度或半年度的再平衡讨论中融入这些考量。

And then you could always tie that to your point around certain market events, certain valuations, maybe you're pairing back the aggressive stuff when valuations get high, and you could incorporate that in your yearly rebalancing or semi annual rebalancing conversation.

你提到了Megan。

You mentioned Megan.

我来澄清一下，Megan是我们富达财富管理公司的同事，上周的节目她就是我们的嘉宾。

I'll just clarify that Megan is one of our colleagues at Motley Fool Wealth Management who was our guest on last week's episode.

我们曾就罗斯账户建议的误区进行过一次非常精彩的讨论，一定要去听听那期节目。

We had a great discussion about Roth advice gone wrong, so make sure you listen to that.

嗯。

Yeah.

我觉得这个被子图总是很有启发性，因为我把资产配置比作霍基波基舞——今年这种投资占主导，明年就换另一种。

And that quilt, I think, is always instructive because I call out asset allocation sort of like the hokey pokey, whereas one year, one type of investment is in and the next year, it's out.

而一个充分分散的投资组合则总是稳稳地居中。

Whereas a well diversified portfolio just kinda rides along in the middle.

它从不是第一名。

It's never the number one.

也从不是最后一名，但能带来平稳的收益体验。

It's never the bottom, but it's a nice smooth ride.

嗯。

Yeah.

我认为这很重要，尤其是从傻瓜哲学的角度来看，你几乎可能忽视资产配置这个概念，因为很多傻瓜投资者都热衷于买入个股。

And I think that's important because especially from a foolish philosophy perspective, right, you can almost rob yourself of this concept of asset allocation, because a lot of foolish investors are diving into individual stocks.

我知道有几个人，他们的投资组合中单只股票就占了50%以上。

So I know several folks that I've run into who have upwards of 50 of their portfolio in a single stock, right?

我知道有些人把100%的资金都投在苹果公司，已经持续了十年，这让他们受益匪浅。

I know some people who have 100% in Apple, and they've had that for a decade, and that served them very well.

所以你得弄清楚，对这样的人而言，再平衡到底意味着什么。

And so you have to kind of attune what does rebalancing mean for that person.

因为如果你看苹果公司的收益图，你会想：这能用广泛的资产类别来衡量吗？

Because if you looked at a quilt chart for Apple, it's like, do you proxy that against broad asset classes?

所以这是一个关于如何逐步调整再平衡策略的非常有趣的话题。

And so it's just a really interesting conversation on how you evolve your rebalancing process.

当人们开始收到年终报表时，总会关心他们的投资组合或特定账户表现如何。

As people begin to receive their year end statements, there's always, you know, what how their portfolio or that specific account performed.

通常报表里会有一个基准参考。

And there's usually a benchmark in there somewhere.

可能是标普500指数。

It might be the S P 500.

也可能是某个摩根士丹利指数。

It might be some MSCI index.

我总是觉得，从很多方面来看，基准并不合适。

And it always occurs to me that in many ways, benchmarks aren't appropriate.

对吧？

Right?

这个投资组合可能包含现金、债券和国际股票。

This portfolio may have cash and bonds and international stocks.

那你为什么要拿它和标普500做比较呢？

Why are you comparing it to the S and P 500?

你觉得与某个指数做比较真的那么重要吗？还是说，更重要的是确保你有足够的钱来实现你的财务目标？

Do you think benchmarking is all that important, like, to compare yourself relative to some index, or is it more important just to make sure you have enough money to accomplish your financial goals?

我觉得两者都有些道理。

I would say it's a little bit of both.

我认为最重要的是，你是否在可接受的波动水平下，实现了达成目标所需的回报率？

I would say the most important thing is, are you achieving the rate of return for the level of volatility that you're comfortable with towards your goal achievement?

这才是最重要的，也应该是大多数人应该遵循的指南针。

That's going to be the most important thing, and should be the north star for most people.

同时，如果你在投资，你就必须对组成部分的底层表现有一些可衡量的参考标准，对吧？

At the same time, if you're investing, you have to have some measurable guide on the underlying performance of the component parts, right?

因此，基准就变得相关了。

And so then benchmarks become relevant.

如果你在401(k)里投资了一个目标日期基金，而这个基金的表现远低于其他目标日期基金，这在微观层面上很重要，你应该能基于这一知情决策做出调整。

If you're in, you know, a target date fund in your four zero one ks, and that target date fund is a stinker compared to all other target date funds, that matters on a micro level, and you should be able to adjust with that informed decision.

但正如你所说，大多数人已经习惯了将一切与标普500指数作比较，这非常危险，因为人们在风险承担上已经超出了自己的承受能力——大家都以为只要把所有钱都投入标普500就行，反正它每年都能涨10%，但这并不符合你的风险承受水平或财务目标，对吧？

But to your point, most people have gotten accustomed to benchmarking everything against the S and P 500, and that gets really dangerous, because people are getting over their ski tips in terms of risk taking, because everyone thinks you can just put everything in the S and P 500, look, it's done 10% every year, and that's not appropriate for your level of risk or your goal set, right?

很多人其实更适合走平稳的中庸路线，因为如果未来看到波动，他们可能会因为情绪化而做出错误的投资决策。

A lot of people are better off if they ride that smooth, middle of the road quilt chart, because they might make bad investor decisions on their wealth if they see volatility in the future.

特别是在当前时期，我认为将投资组合与标普500指数进行比较很有挑战性，因为过去五到十年里，它基本上一直是首选的资产类别。

Particularly at this time, I think it's challenging to benchmark your portfolio against the S and P 500, because it has basically been the asset class of choice over the last five, ten years.

对吧？

Right?

美国大盘股的表现几乎超越了所有其他资产。

US large cap stocks have outperformed just about everything.

所以，如果你配置了国际资产、小盘股、价值股，当然还有现金和债券，这些可能会拖累你的投资组合，但这并不意味着它们对你的情况不合适。

So if you had international, if you had small caps, if you had value, and, of course, if you had cash and bonds, that was a a drag on your portfolio, but that doesn't mean it was inappropriate for your situation.

所以我认为这一点很重要，因为如果你以标普500为基准，你的多元化投资组合可能看起来表现不佳，但它对你而言可能仍然是正确的选择。

So I think that's important context, because if you do benchmark the S and P 500, you're probably gonna not look so great if you had a well diversified portfolio, but it still might have been the right choice for you.

正确。

Correct.

是的。

Yeah.

而且，如果你请人帮你管理资金，情况就会变得非常复杂，因为你可能会责怪他们没能跑赢标普500，于是你陷入了一种通过更换基金经理来实现再平衡的模式。

And, you know, it gets very tricky, especially if you are paying someone to manage your money, because you can blame them for not competing against the S and P 500, and then you get in this place where a version of rebalancing that you do is shopping money managers.

所以你会解雇一位未能达到基准的基金经理，然后把钱转给其他人，这实际上是一种追逐业绩的行为，你可能会因此陷入这种陷阱。

So you fire one money manager who has failed to meet their benchmark, and you go put it with someone else, and it's a version of chasing performance, and you can trap yourself in that way.

我认为，尽管标普500表现非常出色，但今年来看，国际股票和黄金的表现都远超它。

I would argue that, you know, the S and P 500, while it's done very well, if you look at this year, international stocks have crushed it, and gold has crushed it.

所以最终，我们开始看到那些只把全部资金押注在标普500上的人，终于意识到其他资产类别也能为投资组合带来帮助。

So finally, we are starting to see where people who have just hitched their wagon to the S and P 500 are finally recognizing that other asset classes can help their portfolio.

这是个独一无二的年份吗？

Is this a unicorn year?

你知道的，只是某一年的异常情况？

You know, an outlier for one year?

也许吧。

Perhaps.

但再次说明，这恰恰表明，在那个拼布图或资产类别堆叠排名图中，有时你需要其他组成部分来推动你的投资组合。

But again, it just shows you in that quilt chart or stacked ranking asset class visual that sometimes you have to have other component parts to power your portfolio.

你提到过一个表现糟糕的目标日期基金。

You mentioned having a stinker of a target date fund.

那么，我们来谈谈如何审视你的个人投资，并决定是否保留它们。

So let's move on to how you look at your individual investments and decide whether to keep them or not.

显然，对于任何共同基金或ETF，你都希望将其与同类产品进行基准比较。

Obviously, with any form of mutual fund or ETF, you wanna benchmark it against others within that category.

你应当进行公平的对比，最好以三到五年，甚至更长时间为基准，以确保你确实跑赢了同类产品；否则，你可能干脆选择指数型产品。

You wanna do the apples to apples comparison, ideally over three to five years, maybe longer, just to make sure that you are outperforming that category or not just you probably should just go with an index version.

但你还如何审视你所有的投资呢？

But how else do you look at all your investments?

你的基金、股票，还有那些类似的东西？

Your funds, your stocks, your things like that?

你是一项一项地看吗？

You go line by line?

是的。

Yeah.

我的意思是，这取决于你的投资组合结构。

I mean, think it depends on the construction of your portfolio.

比如，如果你是一个买入并持有的指数投资者，逐项查看的话，你可能只有四项投资。

So if you take the, you know, the buy and hold index investor, if you go line by line, you might only have four investments.

对吧？

Right?

你可能只有VOO和BND。

You might have VOO, BND.

因此，在这种情况下，你可以逐项查看，但你其实不必担心比较问题，因为你只是获得指数的收益率。

So there you could go line by line, but you really don't have to worry about comparisons, because you're just getting the index rate of return.

如果你像传统的富达投资者那样，试图跑赢市场，通过选股来追求超额收益，那么正如你所说，我认为通常需要对这些底层基金经理进行三到五年的评估；如果你持有个股，也要给这些个股足够的时间让你的收益实现，对吧？

If, like traditional Motley Fool investors, you're trying to outperform, you're seeking out performance with skilled stock selection, then to your point, yes, I think, you know, a typical three to five year evaluation of those underlying money managers, and if you have individual stocks, you give leeway to those individual stocks to work for you, right?

所以，这位客户将100%的资产都投在苹果公司上，在某些年份，如果苹果表现不佳，你可能会倾向于减持苹果，但你也会给苹果一定的空间和时间，让它恢复并表现良好。

So, again, this client who had a 100% of their portfolio in Apple, certain years, if Apple underperforms, you could be inclined to rebalance out of Apple, but you give leeway or a leash to Apple to recover and do well.

因此，这些就是你需要关注的类型。

And so those would be the types of things that you would look for.

你还需要考虑资产配置的税务位置。

You would also take into context the asset location.

如果你在应税账户中持有某些头寸，你可能更倾向于让它们自行运作，或战略性地实现亏损或盈利，进行税务损失收割或税务收益收割。

So if you have certain positions in a taxable account, you might be more inclined to let those work for you, or strategically harvest losers or winners, tax loss harvesting or tax gain harvesting.

而在税收递延账户或免税账户中，你可能会采用不同的再平衡策略，因为在这些账户中，你可以让盈利头寸长期持有，或者故意在短期内卖出大额盈利资产，因为没有税务影响。

And then you might have a different rebalancing structure in a tax deferred account or a tax free account because you can let winners run-in those accounts for longer, or you can purposely sell big winners over a short period of time because there's no tax implications.

这是另一种操作方式。

That's another way to do things.

让我们更深入地讨论一下再平衡。

Let's move a little bit more into rebalance.

你之前提到，再平衡有几种方法。

Again, you mentioned that there are a few ways to do it.

有些人每年做一次再平衡。

Some people do it annually, once a year.

有些人则以目标为导向。

Some people do it as a target.

比如，当某个资产配置偏离了百分之五以上时。

You know, if a certain allocation has moved five percentage points one way or the other.

你认为每年进行再平衡重要吗？还是说，每隔两三年做一次也可以接受？

Do you think it's important to do it every year, or is it one of those things that, you know, you could probably get away with doing it every two to three years and be okay?

我认为我对这个问题的看法随着时间发生了变化。

I think my view on this has changed over time.

我更愿意让投资组合保持更长时间不动。

I am comfortable letting it ride longer.

我越来越认同‘浇花不浇草’的傻瓜哲学，因此从这个角度看，表现良好的东西往往继续表现良好。

I have grown an affinity to the foolish philosophy of watering your flowers, not your weeds, and so from that perspective, things that are doing well tend to do well.

这其中存在一定的动量，所以如果你说每两年再平衡一次，我觉得完全没问题。

There's a bit of momentum there, and so if you said every two years I'm going to rebalance, think that's perfectly fine.

你可以定期进行短期评估的思维练习，但不必采取任何行动，因为没有强制性的再平衡机制。

You can go through the mental exercise of evaluating things on a shorter timeframe, but you don't have to do anything, there's no forced mechanism of rebalancing.

但你也可以规定每六个月检查一次投资表现。

But you could say every six months, we're going to review how things are doing.

如果我的投资组合中某些部分表现非常出色，我并不需要严格按照六个月的周期来操作。

If certain elements of my portfolio are doing very well, I don't have to do this at a six month regimen.

我只是在定期关注它，然后六个月后再检查一次，真正操作时，等你感觉合适再行动。

I'm just checking in with it, and then we'll do it again in the next six months, and you actually pull the trigger when you feel comfortable.

而且，时机并不是唯一的因素，对吧？

And then again, timing isn't the only component, right?

如果你持有一个过大的仓位，或者某项资产增长到了非常大的比例，这就应该成为决策的依据。

So if you have an outsized position, if something has grown to a very large position, that should be a determinant.

而且，这始终与你对波动性的承受程度相关。

And again, it's always tied back to your level of volatility adherence.

但如果某项资产占你整体投资组合的比重达到20%左右，尽管每个人对这一比例的界定标准不同，但无论你是两年一次还是六个月一次评估再平衡，这都可能是重新调整的好时机。

But if something gets to like a 20% weight of your overall portfolio, and everyone kind of has different measures of what that percentage allocation should be, that's probably a good time regardless of if you have a two year rebalance evaluation or a six month evaluation.

当某项资产在你的投资组合中变得过大时，你应当考虑进行再平衡。

You should probably consider rebalancing when something gets too big in your portfolio.

我只想指出，有一些简单的方法可以通过现金流在边缘进行再平衡。

I'll just point out there's some simple ways to just do rebalancing on the edges with cash flow.

对吧？

Right?

如果你还在为退休储蓄，那么你所有进入401(k)和IRA账户的供款都应投入那些配置不足的资产。

If you're still saving for retirement, all your contributions to your four zero one k's and IRA's go into the underweighted assets.

如果你已经退休，每年需要卖出一些资产来支付账单，那就卖出那些配置过重的资产。

If you're retired and you need to sell a little bit every year to pay your bills, you sell your overweighted assets.

如果你有配置过重的资产，并且正在再投资股息，你只需停止再投资股息即可。

If you do have an overweighted position and you're reinvesting the dividends, you can just stop reinvesting the dividends.

你可能不应该一直积累，然后用这些现金去购买你更需要的资产。

You probably shouldn't be building up, and then you use that cash to buy something that you need a little bit more of.

还有其他关于投资组合再平衡的技巧吗？

Any other tips and tricks involved in in rebalancing your portfolio?

是的。

Yeah.

我的意思是，在财务规划领域，总有一个概念叫做投资者的收益率，对吧？

I mean, I think the thing I would mention is just in financial planning world, there's always this notion of what is the investor rate of return, right?

你可以引用标普500指数，说它每年回报10%，但实际投资标普500的投资者从来达不到这个收益率，因为他们总是频繁调整自己的投资组合。

Because you can quote the S and P 500 and say it gets 10% per year, but the actual investor in the S and P 500 never achieves that rate of return because they're tinkering with their portfolio too much.

因此，我其实很支持较慢的再平衡过程，因为总的来说，那些很少打扰自己账户的人，往往比那些过度频繁调整投资组合的人表现更好。

Hence, me saying I'm actually cool with a slower rebalancing process, because by and large, the people who just don't mess with their account very much tend to do better than the people who are over tinkering with their portfolio.

关于这一点，我唯一要提醒的是，在构建你的投资组合或设定再平衡目标时，最好包含一部分保守型资产，哪怕是现金，以抑制不良行为。

The only caveat that I will mention with respect to that is when you're constructing your portfolio, or your target allocation to rebalance around, it helps to have a conservative portion of any kind, even cash, to temper bad behavior.

所以今年四月就是个很好的例子，当时我接到了很多大账户的电话，他们把所有资金都转成了现金。

So April is a great example where I was fielding calls this year in April from large accounts who went all to cash.

对吧？

Right?

这种情况我遇到过很多次，对吧？

And this has happened to me many times, right?

在那一刻，我的工作就是说服他们不要这么做。

And my job in that moment is to convince them not to do it.

假设我有50%的成功率，对吧？

Say I have a 50% success rate, right?

有些人我会劝他们冷静下来，有些人则劝不住。

So some people I'll talk off the ledge, and some people I won't.

我能成功劝住的通常是那些投资组合中包含保守型资产的人，我可以对他们说：嘿，趁现在这个时机采取积极行动，进行一次临时的再平衡，比如你现在股票和债券各占50%。

The people I can talk off the ledge better is usually someone who has a conservative element in their portfolio that I can say, hey, let's use this moment in time to make a positive action, a temporary moment of rebalance where we say, you're fifty fifty stocks and bonds.

让我们卖出一些债券，降低债券配置，趁机买入被低估的资产。

Let's sell some of the bonds, lower your bond allocation, and buy into the madness.

这让他们在痛苦时刻有事可做，从而避免了最糟糕的结果。

That gives them something to do in that moment of pain, and avoided the worst outcome.

很难量化最坏的结果。

It's hard to quantify the worst outcome.

没有人关心那些在恐慌中没有抛售转为现金的人，因为没人会报道这种情况。

Nobody cares about the person who didn't sell to cash in a panic because no one reports it.

这是一个非常关键的组成部分。

That's a very critical component.

你始终应该在投资组合中保留一定比例的保守配置，以便在关键时刻做出积极调整。

You should always have some amount of conservatism in your portfolio to make a positive movement.

好了，这真是一次很棒的对话，肖恩。

Well, has been great, Sean.

非常感谢你加入我们。

Thanks so much for joining us.

嗨。

Hi.

我是利奥·拉波特。

Leo Laporte here.

如果你对人工智能、机器人以及我们周围所有这些智能设备感兴趣，那你一定不能错过《智能机器》。

And if you're interested in AI, robotics, and all those smart doodads all around us, you'll wanna watch Intelligent Machines.

在这档节目中，杰夫·贾维斯、巴黎·马丁诺和我一起梳理人工智能这个快速变化的世界。

It's where Jeff Jarvis, Paris Martineau, and I sort out the fast moving world of AI.

什么是真实的？

What's real?

什么是炒作？

What's hype?

什么值得你关注？

And what's worth your attention?

我们通过访谈、深入分析和坦诚的对话，探讨我们正在构建的未来。

We bring interviews, sharp analysis, and honest conversation about the future we are building.

你可以在 twit.tv/iam 订阅。

You can subscribe at twit.tv/iam.

是时候结束啦，朋友们，我来强调几个我在之前节目中没提到的年终财务规划建议，首先是灵活支出账户里的钱，这些钱不能结转到下一年。

It's time to get done fools, I'll just highlight a couple of year end financial planning tips that I haven't mentioned in previous episodes starting with spending money in a flexible spending account that can't be rolled over to next year.

如果你正在为大学储蓄，05/29账户的供款没有截止日期，但许多州允许居民在州所得税申报表中扣除供款，而要享受这一优惠，通常必须在12月31日前完成供款。

If you're saving for college, there's no deadline for contributions to 05/29 accounts, but many states allow residents to deduct contributions on the state income tax return and to take advantage of that, the contribution generally must be made by December 31.

如果你有529账户并且孩子正在上大学，请取出资金以报销2025年产生的合格费用，因为提款必须在费用发生的当年内进行。

If you have a five twenty nine and a kid in college, take money out to reimburse yourself for qualified 2025 expenses because withdrawals have to be made in the calendar year the expenses were incurred.

合格费用的范围相当广泛，包括教科书、设备、科技产品、食品、宿舍、校外住房以及限额内的学贷。

And the list of qualified expenses is pretty long including textbooks, equipment, technology, food, dorms, off campus housing, and school loans up to a limit.

如果你的05/29账户中有剩余资金，且符合条件，可以将资金转入受益人的罗斯IRA账户。

And if you have unused money in a 05/29, it can be transferred to a Roth IRA for the beneficiary if you qualify.

其中涉及许多条件，因此请务必仔细研究相关规定。

And there are a lot of qualifications, so make sure you research the rules.

这就是本期节目全部内容。

And that is the show.

祝大家圣诞快乐。

I wish you all a very Merry Christmas.

如果你正在寻找一份 eclectic 且别具一格的节日音乐播放列表，不妨去Spotify上听听我的‘Bro Ho Ho’播放列表。

And if you're looking for an eclectic and offbeat holiday music playlist, check out my bro ho ho playlist on Spotify.

一如既往，感谢工程师巴特·香农为本期节目提供的支持。

Thank you as always to Bart Shannon, the engineer, for this episode.

本节目中的人员可能对其讨论的股票有利益关系，而富达基金可能已对此类股票做出正式的买入或卖出建议。

People on this program may have interest in the stocks they talk about, and The Motley Fool may have formal recommendations for or against.

因此，不要仅凭你听到的内容来买卖股票。

So don't buy or sell stocks based solely on what you hear.

所有个人理财内容均遵循富达基金的编辑标准，且未经广告商批准。

All personal finance content follows Motley Fool editorial standards and is not approved by advertisers.

广告为赞助内容，仅提供信息参考。

Advertisements are sponsored content and provided for informational purposes only.

如需查看我们的完整广告披露，请参阅节目说明。

To see our full advertising disclosure, please check out our show notes.

我是罗伯特·布罗坎普。

I'm Robert Brokamp.

继续愚人之旅，各位。

Fool on, everybody.