2025年超300只股票翻倍——我们钟爱的3只与不看好的3只

回顾2025年股市宠儿的一些表现，这里是Motley Fool Money节目。

Looking back at some of the stock market darlings of 2025, this is Motley Fool Money.

欢迎收听Motley Fool Money。

Welcome to Motley Fool Money.

我是泰勒·克罗，今天和我一起的是长期撰稿人马特·弗兰克尔和乔恩·奎斯特。

My name is Tyler Crowe, and today, I'm joined by longtime contributors, Matt Frankel and Jon Quast.

年底转眼就要到了，我有点说不清这种感觉。

The end of the year is sneaking up on us pretty quick and kinda like I don't know.

作为投资者，当十二月来临时，总有种本能想要回顾这一年，盘点一下——请原谅我的双关——2025年的股市宠儿。

There's some sort of instinctual feel as investors to, like, look back at the year as December rolls around and could take stock, if you will, don't mind my pun, of the stock market darlings of 2025.

哪些表现优异？

What did well?

哪些不尽人意？

What didn't?

哪些策略奏效了？

What's worked?

哪些公司在2026年可能再次表现出色？

And what could work again in 2026?

通常我们喜欢对公司做些分析，对新闻事件做些反应，但这次我们要改变一下，围绕回顾这个主题展开。

So, normally, we like to do some analysis of companies, a little bit of reaction to, you know, things in the news, but we're gonna change it up a little bit on this theme of looking back.

我们将重点看看2025年表现极其出色的公司，特别是那些股价在录制当天（12月11日）前实现翻倍的公司。

And we're gonna look at some of the companies that did incredibly well in 2025, specifically companies that actually saw their stocks double in this year to date as of our recording here on December 11.

我们无法涵盖所有公司，因为今年股价翻倍的公司超过300家。

Now we can't do all of it because there was more than 300 companies that more than doubled this year.

因此我们每人精选了一支股票，这些股票尽管今年已大幅上涨，但我们认为它们在2026年仍将表现优异。

So what we did is we each picked one stock that we think will continue to do incredibly well in 2026 despite the large run up this year.

同时我们也会从这份名单中选出一支今年表现优异，但对2026年走势不太确定的公司。

And at the same time, we're also gonna pick one of that list that had a great year, but 2026, we're not so certain about.

当然，我们最后会讨论我们关注的股票——也许它们今年没翻倍，但我们依然看好。

And, of course, we'll finish out the show with stocks on our radar because maybe they didn't double, but we like them anyways.

让我们以乐观的态度开始2026年的讨论，先看看2025年表现卓越的公司，以及我们看好它们明年继续表现优异的原因。

So let's start off on an optimistic note here in 2026 and the companies that we saw do incredibly well in 2025 and what we'll do well next year.

马特，由你开始吧。

Matt, kick us off.

首先，有326家上市公司股价翻倍甚至更多，这本身就相当了不起。

First, the fact that we've had three twenty six public companies double, or much more in some cases, is pretty remarkable.

我在查看这份名单时思考的是：这些企业的业务或机遇是否比年初时强大了两倍？

One thing that I asked when looking at this list is, is the business or are its opportunities twice as strong as they were when we started this year?

这个标准确实大大缩小了范围。

And that really narrowed it down.

我要提出一个有点反主流的观点——要知道两年前我自己都不会相信会这么说。

I'll do somewhat of a contrarian take here because I can't if you know, two years ago, I wouldn't have believed I'm saying this.

但我选择的是Lemonade（股票代码LMND），这家保险科技公司在2022至2024年经历了一段艰难时期。

But I'm gonna go with Lemonade, ticker symbol l m n d, the insurance technology company that had a rough few years in 2022 to 2024.

但现在我们确实开始看到转机正在形成。

But we're really starting to see come things come together right now.

公平地说，虽然这仍是家投机性很强的公司，但今年114%的涨幅确实实至名归。

And although it is, to be fair, still a pretty speculative company, the 114% rally so far this year is well deserved.

公司的营收增长不仅持续，还在加速。

The company's top line growth is not only growing but accelerating.

公司终于达到了其损失率目标。

The company's finally hitting its loss ratio targets.

Lemonade的目标是将损失率（即赔付金额占保费收入的比例）控制在75%或更低，而过去12个月的数据远低于这一标准。

Eliminate aims to keep a loss ratio, which is the claims that it pays out as a percentage of its premiums collected, of 75% or less, and it's well below that over the past twelve month period.

所以这不仅仅是季节性因素或其他原因。

So this isn't just because of seasonality or anything.

这是全年数据。

That's over a year.

Lemonade现已实现正向现金流，并预计在2026年前达到EBITDA收支平衡。

Lemonade's now cash flow positive, and they expect to be EBITDA breakeven by the 2026.

这又是两年前我绝对不敢相信自己会说的话。

Another thing I wouldn't have believed I was saying a couple years ago.

随着其汽车保险产品的持续推广，未来仍有很大的潜在上升空间。

And as their car insurance product continues to ramp up, there is a lot of potential upside here still to come.

马特，我想针对Lemonade公司提一个后续问题，我们会对讨论的所有公司都这样做。

Matt, I wanna ask a follow-up question about lemonade specifically, we'll do this with all the companies we're talking about here.

我曾几次对Lemonade表示过怀疑。

I've sniffed at lemonade a couple times.

你知道，损失率改善确实令人欣慰。

You know, the loss improvements or loss ratio improvements are really nice.

但真正让我有所顾虑的是——当然损失率确实改善了——而且今年天气灾害相对温和。

The thing that really sticks with me a little bit and, yeah, loss ratios, there was also a mild year in terms of weather related disasters.

所以我认为所有保险公司都应考虑到这一点。

So I think for all insurance companies, we'll keep that in mind.

我会把这个列入'2026年观察清单'。

I'm putting that in the we we'll see bucket for 2026.

我的问题是关于综合赔付率。

My question is, like, combined ratio losses.

这个指标包含了所有运营费用。

This is where you include all the operating expenses.

其客户获取成本极高，导致出现账面亏损（虽然可能不是现金亏损，因为使用了部分股票薪酬）。

It has very high customer acquisition costs that lead to, you know, gap losses and maybe not cash losses because use some stock based compensation.

Lemonade真的能在不付出如此高昂客户获取成本的情况下，实现GAAP盈利和合理增长率吗？

Can Lemonade really achieve, like, that GAAP profitability and reasonable growth rates without these really high customer acquisition costs?

这就是我一直关注的问题：他们能否降低获客成本，同时实现盈利和增长？

That's the thing that I've I've I keep looking at and be like, can they scale down that acquisition cost and deliver profitability and growth?

嗯，当然。

Well, sure.

他们尚未实现EBITDA盈利的主要原因正是这笔获客成本。

That's a big reason why they're not EBITDA profitable yet, is because of that acquisition cost.

有几点需要注意：

A couple of things.

第一，正如我提到的车险产品正在构建他们的生态系统。

One, as they build their ecosystem I mentioned the car insurance product.

车险产品带来的收入大约是平均租客保险保单的10倍，而后者正是他们的旗舰产品之一。

The car insurance product brings in roughly 10 times what the average renter's insurance policy does, which is one of which is their their flagship product.

所以他们获取汽车保险客户的成本并没有增加十倍。

So they're spending they're not spending 10 times as much to get an auto insurance customer.

因此，随着更大规模、利润更高的保险类型逐步发展，这个问题应该会自行解决。

So as the bigger, more profitable types of insurance kind of build out, that should start to take care of itself.

这正是他们将其纳入今年年底盈利目标考量的部分因素。

That is part of the what they're they're factoring into their profitability targets for the end of this year.

所以我认为我们会看到情况继续朝着正确方向发展。

So I I I think that we're gonna see that continue to head in the right direction.

过去几年确实如此。

It certainly has over the past few years.

但你说得对，今年的天气确实非常温和。

But you are right that it has been a very mild weather year.

作为佛罗里达州的房主，我对此感到非常高兴。

As a Florida homeowner, I'm very happy for that.

不过这是未来需要关注的一点。

But it's something to watch going forward.

约翰，我知道你也在佛罗里达地区。

John, I know you're in the Florida area too.

我相信你也享受了这个温和的飓风季。

I'm sure you enjoyed the the mild hurricane season as well.

但是，当我们看这份清单时，哪只股票最让你眼前一亮？

But, what was this when we looked at this list here, what was the stock that really popped out for you?

嗯，这份清单上市值较大的公司之一是美光科技，股票代码MU。

Well, one of the larger market cap companies on this list was Micron Technology and ticker symbol MU with that.

这是一家计算机内存产品企业。

This is a memory computer memory product business.

要知道，通常最好避开周期性行业中的商品化业务。

And, you know, it's often a good idea to avoid a commoditized business in a cyclical industry.

美光恰好兼具这两个特点。

Micron is kind of both of those things.

但我确实认为该股在2025年的上涨有充分理由。

And yet I do believe that the stock is up for very good reason in 2025.

我认为许多投资者仍未意识到当前业务趋势还能持续多久。

And I believe many investors still don't grasp how much longer current business trends can play out.

所以有趣的是。

So here's what's interesting.

由于AI及当前对内存产品的需求，内存产品的需求正在飙升。

Because of AI and some of the present needs memory products, their the demand for memory products is just skyrocketing.

美光科技自身2026年的产能已全部售罄。

Micron itself has already sold out for 2026.

已有报告指出，包括美光、三星和SK海力士在内的所有主要厂商，2027年的供应量也将普遍不足，这些因素都能保持极高的利润率。

And there are some reports out there that are already saying between all of the major players out there, which includes micron, Samsung and SK hynix, there won't be enough supply for 2027 either, broadly speaking, These are things that can keep the profit margins very high.

过去这些厂商都在试图平衡供需，以避免利润率被侵蚀。

In the past, these players have all kind of been trying to balance supply and demand so that they don't see their profit margins erode away.

但目前的需求量甚至超出了这三家厂商的总产能。

But right now, the demand is beyond what the three combined can even make.

这非常有趣，与我们过去在计算机内存领域看到的周期截然不同。

So it's very interesting and very different from past cycles that we've seen in the computer memory space.

这也是我认为美光不仅可能已售罄未来两年的供应，而且利润率在这一趋势下有望创下历史新高的原因之一。

And it's one reason why I think that, well, not only has Micron already sold out its supply for perhaps the next two years, But margins could, I believe, hit all time highs during this this trend.

所以目前以15倍远期市盈率交易，这个估值并不算差。

And so right now, trading at 15 times its forward earnings, that's that's not bad.

尤其当这一趋势持续时间超出投资者预期时。

And especially if this trend lasts for longer than what investors believe it will.

因此当前形势非常有趣，我对未来一年仍持乐观态度。

And so this is very interesting right now and one that I'm still optimistic on in the coming year.

约翰，你如何看待美光在AI领域的布局？

John, how do you think of Micron in terms of an AI play?

比如提到英伟达和AMD这些AI明星企业时，你会把美光视为它们增长的价值支撑吗？

For example, when I think of Nvidia and AMD, the headline AI names, you do think of Micron kinda as, like, the the value to their growth?

或者说你是这样理解它的定位吗？

Or or is that kinda how you think of it?

这是个非常好的问题，马特。

That's a really good question, Matt.

我的想法并非完全如此。

It's not quite how I think about it.

让我这样回答吧。

Let me answer it like this.

如果你看好英伟达或AMD，你依然预期这股AI趋势——基础设施的建设至少还会持续几年。

If you're bullish on NVIDIA here or AMD for that matter, you're still expecting this AI trend, the build out of the infrastructure to last at least a couple more years.

我能理解为何有人会更青睐英伟达而非AMD，或者反之，毕竟它们的业务领域非常相似。

And I can see why you would prefer NVIDIA over AMD or AMD over NVIDIA perhaps because they're they're very similar in what they do.

但如果你看好英伟达或AMD中的任何一家，我认为你也必须看好美光，因为他们在AI基础设施建设中提供的部件，与其他公司供给的同等重要。

But if you're bullish on either NVIDIA or AMD, I believe that you need to be bullish Micron as well because what they are supplying to its part of the AI infrastructure build out is just as important as what the other companies are providing.

所以我认为两者缺一不可。

So I think it's a both.

如果你看好GPU组件，那你也必须看好内存。

If you're bullish on the GPU component, you're you need to be bullish on memory.

我感觉这里有个规律。

I feel like a trend here.

我们讨论的是那些在2026年表现优异的AI赋能企业或AI基础设施建设公司。

We're talking about either, like, AI empowered companies or AI build outs to companies here in in the the ones that'll do well in 2026.

我也沿着同样的思路在思考。

And I I went in the same direction.

这让我最后发言。

It leaves, me going last.

我想讨论Next Power。

I wanna discuss, Next Power.

这家公司的股票代码是NXT。

The tech the company's name, ticker, excuse me, is NXT.

他们最近刚改了名字。

They recently changed its name.

之前叫Next Tracker，这名字基本透露了他们的业务。

It used to be called Next Tracker, which kinda gives away what they do.

他们的主营业务是为公用事业规模太阳能装置建造跟踪设备，就是让太阳能板能全天跟随太阳轨迹转动。

Their primary business is building tracking equipment for utility scale solar installations, you know, so the the panel will follow the trajectory of the sun during the day.

他们还拓展了其他公用事业规模的组件业务，比如太阳能装置所需的结构件、电气线路与线束、功率转换器、电力输出优化软件，甚至还有一项很酷的新技术——远程AI驱动的现场监控机器人。

And they've also branched out into other utility scale components for, you know, solar installations, whether that be, like, structural elements, electrical wiring and harnesses, power converters, software for power output optimization, and even got a cool new thing with, like, some remote, AI powered field monitoring robots.

这些机器人看起来非常酷炫。

They look really cool.

虽然还不清楚这项业务实际规模有多大，但在投资者演示中确实很吸引眼球。

I don't know how much of a actual, like, business it is yet, but looks nice on an investor presentation.

这个话题我们已经讨论了一段时间了。

Now I think we've been doing this for a while.

在我们的'雷达股票'板块中，我经常谈及太阳能，而这家公司也符合这个主题。

I've been talking solar power quite a bit with some of our stocks on the radar section, and this fits into that theme as well.

我认为现在很多人都在寻找为数据中心供电的其他能源方案。

I think so many people are looking at other power sources to fuel data centers.

在所有能源中，太阳能是目前最容易快速大规模部署的。

So I of all of them, solar is the fastest right now to deploy at scale relative to anything else.

尽管太阳能板存在电力间歇性和电网压力等问题（这是太阳能领域较少被讨论的实际难题），但它们提供的仍是极其廉价的电力，而且扩大发电规模的速度也是所有能源中最快的。

And for all the headaches that, you know, solar panel creates with, like, intermittency of power and grid strain, which is a real thing that we don't talk about as much with solar power, they are still extremely cheap electrons, and the speed to scale up power, production is the fastest you're gonna see.

我认为在未来几年AI建设期间，这些特性将变得极其宝贵——毕竟我们还在等待那些尚未实现的下一代能源奇迹。

And I think those are gonna be incredibly valuable traits over the next several years of the AI build out while we're all still waiting for the miracle that is, you know, these other next generation, types of power sources that we don't have.

从公司角度来看，这是一家创始人领导的企业。

And from a company perspective, we got a founder led business.

自上市以来一直保持盈利。

It's been profitable since going public.

这在太阳能行业可不多见。

You don't see that much in the solar industry.

资产负债表很健康，虽然股价翻倍了，但市盈率仍维持在20倍左右，看起来相当合理。

Nice balance sheet and the stock, You know, even though it doubled, it's still trading for, like, right around 20 times earnings, which seems pretty reasonable.

是的，泰勒。

Yeah, Tyler.

我特别喜欢这个观点。

I love this idea.

其中一个原因就是当前有太多因素正在把我们的电网逼到极限。

And one of the reasons that I love it is because there are so many things that are stretching our power grid to the max.

我认为对投资者而言，一个非常关键的问题是：如何利用现有资源创造更大价值？通过太阳能板追踪阳光，我认为这是最大化现有基础设施效能的绝佳方式。

And I think for investors, a really important thing to consider is how can we do more with what we already have and tracking the sun with the solar panels, I think is a is a great way to just maximize what infrastructure we already have.

但我的问题是：太阳能追踪技术在我看来似乎很容易被复制，我很好奇——

But my question for you is solar tracking tech in my mind seems pretty easy to replicate, and I'm just curious.

NextTracker在这方面是否具备任何优势或护城河？

Does NextTracker have any sort of advantage or a moat here?

听着，

Look.

如果我要诚实地自我审视，他们确实没有。

If I'm gonna be really honest with myself and and scrutinize, they don't.

这类组件...

I there's these types of components.

已经有很多公司在做了。

There are companies that are in it.

除了良好的执行力、优秀的销售团队、易用的优质产品外，很难真正获得明显的竞争或技术优势。在这种领域——就像任何产品制造业一样——你永远不可能自动获胜。

It's hard to really gain any sort of real distinct, like, competitive or technology advantage other than just good execution, good sales team, good products, easy to use, things like that, you're never going to, you know, just automatically win in these sort of spaces, much like any type of product manufacturing that you have.

核心在于，你要明白，向客户提供能产生良好反响的解决方案，并持续执行这一理念。

It's the idea of just being you know, presenting solutions to your customers that are gonna reverberate well and just continue to execute on that.

到目前为止，Next Power公司做到了这一点。

So far, Next Power has done that.

如果能继续保持，我认为它会取得惊人的成功。

And if it can continue to do that, I think it's gonna do incredibly well.

这也解释了为什么我们看到大部分表现优异的公司都具备这个特质。

And that brings us to most of the companies we saw doing well.

广告之后，我们将分析那些我们认为明年可能表现不佳的2025潜力股。

And coming up after the break, we're gonna look at great twenty twenty five stocks that we think might not do so well next year.

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好的。

Okay.

我们来聊聊2026年表现可能不佳的公司——那些在过去一年表现优异的，我们将采用蛇形选秀的方式讨论。

Talking about not so great companies for 2026 that did well this past year, and we're gonna go snake draft style.

所以这次我先开始。

So I'm gonna go first this time.

我认为这个名单上有不少公司。

I think there's a lot of companies on this list.

我想你、我和许多其他人都已经注意到了。

I think you, me, and a lot of other people have seen.

可能对此持有些怀疑态度。

Might be a little dubious of.

有些股票，你知道的，那些昙花一现的涨幅可能再也不会重现了。

There's some, you know, one time gainers we might never receive again.

但就我个人而言，结合我在节目中的观察——你可能也注意到这个主题了——因为我这次又选了能源股，我挑中的是Oclo，股票代码是AOKLOLKO。

But for me and the things I've been looking at in in this show and what you might detect as a theme here, because I'm doing another energy stock, and the one that I picked out was Oclo, and ticker a o k l o l k o.

呃不对，抱歉。

Just or sorry.

是OKLO。

O k l o.

和公司名称非常相似。

Very similar to the company name.

我不想让人觉得我反对核能。

Now I don't wanna come across as, like, anti nuclear.

并不是这样，我确实希望核能在能源结构中占比能更大些。

It's not I I do wish that we could make nuclear a bigger part of the mix.

只是核能在美国面临的实际困境实在太多，这让发展核能变得异常艰难。

It's just practical realities of nuclear in general have been so hard in The United States that it's making it really challenging.

我认为核能面临的两大主要问题通常是成本和部署时间。

I think the two primary reasons for nuclear in general are cost and time to deploy.

我刚才还在和太阳能做比较。

I was just talking about it with solar.

我理解理论上Oclo采用的方法——使用美国阿贡国家实验室上世纪六十年代研发的液态钠反应堆。

And I get I get that in theory, Oclo's approach of using a liquid sodium reactor that U US researchers at the Argonne National Lab developed back in the nineteen sixties.

这可能是部署核能的一种更快方式，而且由于规模较小，复杂度也较低。

It could be a faster way to deploy nuclear power and because they're smaller, they're less complex.

然而，这仍然只是个理论构想。

However, it's still like a theoretical idea.

这种特殊反应堆最初未能落地的部分原因就是耗时过长，期间世界已经找到了稍好的解决方案。

And one of the part of the reasons that this particular reactor never got off the ground in the first place because it took so long, the world kind of like came up with slightly better solutions.

这就是我对Aclo直到2026年及以后最大的疑问——他们想做的事情太多了。

And that's my biggest question with Aclo into 2026 and beyond is, you know, they wanna do a lot of things.

他们想要进行设计。

They wanna design.

他们想要建造。

They wanna build.

他们想要运营。

They wanna operate.

这是电力行业前所未有的事情。

Some it's something nobody else in the power industry has ever done.

因此我担心，等他们跟上节奏时，这些耗电量巨大的数据中心根本不会等待那个可能十年后才能实现的完美解决方案。

And with that, my concern is it will take so long for them to get up to speed that all of these power hungry data centers aren't gonna wait around for the right solution that might be ten years out from now.

他们需要的是立竿见影的解决方案，而我认为核能无法提供这个。

They they want the right now solution, and I don't think that's gonna come from nuclear.

这些观点都很有道理。

That all makes sense.

作为住在核反应堆附近的人——那个反应堆已经建设了十年——我可以亲口告诉你这过程有多漫长。

As someone who's lived near a nuclear reactor that's been under construction for about ten years now, I can tell you firsthand that it takes forever.

但我想我们都认同，这些AI基础设施将产生巨大的电力需求。

But I think we both agree that there's going to be a massive need for power for all this AI infrastructure.

我们听到这些公司都在谈论1000亿美元之类的资本支出。

We hear these 100,000,000,000 you know, CapEx and things like that from all these companies.

你认为近期解决方案会是什么？

What do you think is gonna be the near term solution?

你觉得是你提到的这些太阳能股票吗？

Do you think it's all these solar stocks you're talking about?

你觉得是风能吗？

Do you think it's wind?

还是其他什么方案？

Do you think it's something else?

我认为目前——我之前应该提到过这个观点。

I think right now and I I think I've mentioned this before.

但对我来说，解决方案会是太阳能和天然气。

But to me, it's gonna be solar and natural gas.

而且我认为这将大幅挤压核能空间，因为这些企业不可能建好数据中心后干等十年直到核能就绪。

And I I think it's gonna push out nuclear in a large way because these people aren't gonna build data centers and then just wait and twiddle their thumbs until nuclear power is ready ten years from now.

他们会希望这些设施立即投入使用。

They're gonna want these things to go live.

而太阳能和天然气现在就能投入使用。

And you can go live with solar and with gas today.

你看看像GE Vernova这样的公司正在制造天然气涡轮机。

You look at companies like GE Vernova making natural gas turbines.

就连卡特彼勒也在讨论使用燃气轮机和柴油轮机作为数据中心当前的供电方案。

Even Caterpillar's talking about using gas turbines and diesel, turbines as ways to power data centers right now.

这就是行业的发展方向。

That's where they're going.

我实在难以想象十年后，所有数据中心会说：'我们已经建好了这么多天然气和太阳能设施，但现在核能准备好了，让我们再花大价钱转向核能'。

And I I'm really hard to imagine, like, ten years from now, all these data centers would be like, well, we built all this gas and solar power, but now that nuclear is ready, let's switch to spend all the money to switch to nuclear.

我认为这种情况根本不会发生。

I just don't see that happening.

因此在中短期内，真正能实现供电的将是这类能源方案。

And so in the short to medium term, it's gonna be those types of power sources that are gonna make it happen.

在核能以及所有热门趋势中，量子计算是目前最大的风口之一。

With nuclear power and kind of all the big fad fad trends, one of the big ones so far has been quantum computing.

约翰，你在这次特别练习中关注的就是量子计算领域。

And, John, the one you've been looking at for this particular exercise is in the quantum computing space.

是的。

Yeah.

当然，泰勒。

For sure, Tyler.

我现在关注的是D-Wave Quantum，股票代码QBTS。

The one I'm looking at right now is D Wave Quantum, ticker symbol QBTS.

这个领域有几个类似的股票代码。

There are several similar ticker symbols in the space.

我要确保我记下的是正确的那个。

I wanna make sure I get the right one down here.

这只股票今年涨幅已超过230%。

This stock is up more than 230% this year.

D Wave Quantum是什么公司？

And what is D Wave Quantum?

这是一家量子计算公司。

It's a quantum computing company.

他们极力强调自己是首个具备商业可行性的企业。

It really adamantly pounds the table that it was the first with commercial viability.

他们在2011年就售出了量子计算机或类似量子计算机的设备。

It sold a quantum computer or something kind of like a quantum computer in 2011.

按照这种'有过销售就算商业可行'的定义，几乎每家量子计算公司都算具备商业可行性了。

By that definition of commercial viability that it had a sale, I mean, practically every single quantum computing company out there is commercially viable.

所有公司都有营收，大部分确实有收入。

All have revenue, most of them have revenue.

问题在于这些技术是否实用，以及企业是否真正在采用它们。

The question is whether or not they're practical, and whether or not enterprises are actually adopting them.

我认为从数据来看，大多数情况下答案是否定的。

And I believe that for the most part, the numbers say no.

根据D Wave最新的财务报告显示，其订单量有所下降。

And so according to D Wave's own financial report, most recently, its bookings are down.

这些是客户近期下的订单，而其剩余履约义务也在减少。

So these are recent orders made by customers, and then its remaining performance obligations are also down.

这指的是公司已宣布合同中尚未交付的部分。

And that's a little bit further out of what it still has to deliver on the the contracts it's already announced.

当然，这其中会有波动性。

And so granted, there's gonna be choppiness.

我理解这一点。

I get that.

我们谈论的是非常小的数字，单个交易就能影响全局。

A single deal here we are talking about very small numbers.

所以单笔交易就可能使其重新恢复增长。

So a single deal could flip it back to growth.

但就目前而言，该公司在商业上已持续可行很长时间了。

But for right now, it's been kind of commercially viable for a long time.

从订单和RPO趋势来看，目前并没有迹象表明客户对采用这项技术感兴趣。

And there aren't really anything in the bookings and RPO trends that say its customers are interested today in adopting the technology.

在我看来，这仍表明我们距离目标还很遥远。

To me, that still points that we're we're still too far of a ways off.

至于2026年的前景，这意味着2025年的增长是基于一种极易反转的市场情绪——这种情绪可能在2026年迅速回落，因为它并非建立在实质性的基本面之上，这在股市中很常见。

And and then when it comes to the outlook for 2026, what it means is we're up in 2025 based on a sentiment that can easily flip that can easily flip right back in 2026 because it's not really built on the fundamentals here, and that's normal in stocks.

恐惧与贪婪总是像跷跷板一样来回摇摆。

Fear and greed always teeter and tottering back and forth.

因此，我认为2026年的基础并不稳固。

And so, I say this is on shaky ground for 2026.

但像D-Wave和其他量子公司宣称的突破性进展，似乎离实际应用还非常遥远。

But the breakthroughs or purpated breakthroughs that, like, D Wave and many of the other quantum companies appear to be you know, it it seems like they're much further away.

而且他们正在做的事情很大程度上难以预测，究竟谁会成为这个领域的赢家？

And more or less, the the things that they're doing are somewhat unpredictable, who's actually going to be the winner in this space?

在量子技术投资方面，你认为近期有任何具备商业可行性的项目吗？还是说这完全属于观望领域？

In terms of investing in quantum technology, do you see anything that is you know, has a commercial viability in the near term, or is this all very much a wait and see sort of thing?

是的。

Yeah.

我认为量子计算机能实现真正实用化的那一天还非常遥远。

I believe that we're really far out for the real practical things that quantum computer might be able to do.

我想说，大家应该都认同Alphabet旗下的谷歌是量子计算领域的领军者之一。

And I would say just look at I think we can all agree that Alphabet's Google is among the leaders in quantum computing.

即便你不认为它是领头羊，它也肯定是领军者之一。

Even if you don't think it's the leader, it's among the leaders for sure.

按照谷歌的时间表，一家量子计算公司需要制造、连接并控制至少100万个量子比特，才能实现真正有用且实用的功能。

And according to Google's timeline, basically a quantum computing company needs to make, connect and control at least 1,000,000 qubits to have something that's really useful, really practical, make, connect and control.

目前大多数企业还在处理数百个量子比特的阶段，而且连接和控制的程度也参差不齐。

Right now, most of these players are dealing in the hundreds of qubits, and they can only connect and control them to varying degrees.

D-Wave最雄心勃勃的计算机

D Wave, it's most ambitious computer.

Advantage two号称拥有5000个量子比特。

The Advantage two says that it has 5,000 qubits.

即便如此，我的意思是，就算每年翻倍，距离百万量子比特系统仍需五年以上时间。

Still, I mean, you could double that every single year, and you're still more than five years away from a million qubit system.

因此我认为这个领域充满希望，但距离人们真正将量子计算用于日常事务还有很长的路要走。

And so I think that there's just a lot of hope with this space, but I think we're still a ways off before people are actually using quantum computing for for normal things.

到目前为止，我们已经讨论了一些备受炒作的话题。

So we have looked so far at some pretty hyped up things.

核能，十年后才能实现。

Nuclear power, ten years out.

量子计算，五年后才能实现。

Quantum computing, five years out.

马特，你接下来要谈的是不是也属于那种遥不可及、我们尚未真正突破的未来科技？

Matt, are you continuing our theme of things that are way out in the future we haven't quite actually figured out yet?

我想是的。

Think so.

我觉得我们想到一块儿去了。

I think that you're on the same page with me.

我们很少对一只股票同样看跌，但这次可能是个例外。

It's rare that we're equally bearish on a stock, but I think this might be it.

我要选择Opendoor，股票代码OPEN，这家房地产iBuyer公司。

I'm going to go with Opendoor, ticker symbol OPEN, the real estate iBuyer.

需要说明的是，我认为三十年后我们买卖房屋的方式就会是这样的。

And to be clear, I think in thirty years, this is how we're going to be buying and selling houses.

房地产市场需要颠覆性变革。

The real estate market needs disruption.

只是目前还没有人真正找到正确的实现方式。

Just no one's really figured out the right way to do it yet.

Opendoor

Opendoor

已经

has

今年股价涨幅超过四倍。

more than quadrupled this year.

相比夏季低点，股价已上涨10倍。

It's up by 10x since its summer lows.

就在不久前，Opendoor管理层几乎要认输投降，还在多方面计划进行反向股票分割。

It wasn't that long ago when Opendoor's management was essentially throwing in the towel and planning a reverse split in a lot of ways.

如今投资者似乎非常看好。

Now investors seem very bullish.

一位名为埃里克·杰克逊的对冲基金经理给出了100倍涨幅的预测，提出了一个宏大论点——其中部分内容略显牵强，但关于公司开发AI工具以及所有竞争对手（特别是Zillow和Redfin）已退出iBuying行业的分析很有道理。

A hedge fund manager named Eric Jackson gave a 100 x call on the stock, laid out a big thesis that some of it was a little far fetched, some of it made a lot of sense about the company developing AI tools, the fact that all of its competitors are gone, specifically Zillow and Redfin, from the iBuying industry.

他提出了一些不错的观点。

He makes some decent points.

但现实是，除了2021年异常强劲的房地产市场外，我们尚未看到这种模式能否实现规模化盈利。

But the reality is that outside of an abnormally strong real estate market in 2021, we're yet to see if this model can be profitable at scale.

公平地说，如果房地产市场真的出现某种拐点，可能会给股票带来暂时性提振。

So to be fair, if the real estate market does have some sort of inflection point, it could produce a temporary boost to the stock.

他们确实需要一个良好的房地产市场。

This need they need a good real estate market.

但要让Opendoor当前市值站得住脚，还有很多环节需要顺利运转。

But there's a lot that needs to go right for Opendoor's current market cap to be justifiable.

Matt，你投资过房地产。

Matt, you've invested in real estate.

你对这个领域非常非常了解。

You know this space very, very well.

你认为这些公司要怎样才能在规模化iBuying业务中取得成功？

What do you think that it would take for one of these companies to be successful in iBuying at scale?

投资者应该关注哪些方面？

What are the things that investors should look for?

大幅降低运营成本结构。

Getting your cost structure a lot lower.

这才是核心问题。

That's really the big issue.

像Opendoor这样的公司。

Companies like Opendoor.

他们目前为此花费巨大。

It costs them a lot right now.

他们的业务自动化程度远远不够。

They there's they they don't automate enough of their business.

在很多情况下，他们持有房产的平均时间超过一百天。

They're holding their homes for an average of over a hundred days in in a lot of cases.

他们需要为这些房产支付利息，因为是通过借款购买的。

They're paying interest on those, because they're borrowing money to buy these homes.

他们要为这长达百天的持有期支付利息。

They're paying interest for that hundred day holding period.

他们的销售成本也未能达到应有水平。

Their selling costs aren't what they need to be.

我的意思是，新任CEO上任后基本就指出公司员工过多、基础设施过剩，我们需要大幅提高自动化程度。

It's I mean, the new CEO took over and essentially said this company's got too many employees and too much, infrastructure, we need to automate a lot more.

所以核心问题在于成本结构。

So it's it's about cost structure.

关键在于速度。

It's about quickness.

这其中涉及很多因素，但能否实现还有待观察。

There there's a lot to it, but it remains to be seen if it is possible.

广告时间即将到来，我们或许不会讨论股价翻倍的股票，但一定会关注那些在我们雷达范围内的股票。

Coming up on the break, we'll do maybe not stock doubles, but certainly stocks on our radar.

听众朋友们，大家好。

Hello, listeners.

我是安妮·博格尔，作家、博主，也是播客《接下来我该读什么？》的创始人。

This is Anne Bogel, author, blogger, and creator of the podcast, What Should I Read Next?

自2016年起，我一直在帮助读者为他们的阅读生活增添更多快乐与惊喜。

Since 2016, I've been helping readers bring more joy and delight into their reading lives.

每周我都会与一位嘉宾畅谈书籍与阅读的方方面面，并引导他们发现下一本值得阅读的书。

Every week, I tag all things books and reading with a guest and guide them in discovering their next read.

他们会分享三本喜爱的书、一本不喜欢的书，以及最近在读的作品。

They share three books they love, one book they don't, and what they've been reading lately.

我会推荐三本他们接下来可能会喜欢的书。

And I recommend three titles they may enjoy reading next.

嘉宾们说我们的对话就像心理治疗，解决了困扰他们阅读生活多年甚至可能伴随余生的问题。

Guests have said our conversations are like therapy, troubleshooting issues that have plagued their reading lives for years and possibly the rest of their lives as well.

当然，还会推荐符合当下需求的书——无论是寻求引发深刻自省以推动人生改变，还是想要一本轻松读物来逃离工作、学业等一切压力。

And, of course, recommending books that meet the moment, whether they are looking for deep introspection to spur or encourage a life change or a frothy page turner to help them escape the stresses of work, school, everything.

你会更了解自己作为读者的偏好，并带着满满的新书单和作家名单离开，自信地选择下一本读物。

You'll learn something about yourself as a reader, and you'll definitely walk away confident to choose your next read with a whole list of new books and authors to try.

每周二欢迎加入我们《我接下来该读什么？》

So join us each Tuesday for what should I read next?

现在就在你收听播客的平台订阅我们，并访问官网whatshouldireadnextpodcast.com获取更多信息。

Subscribe now wherever you're listening to this podcast, and visit our website, whatshouldireadnextpodcast.com to find out more.

本周雷达上的股票，我选择EMCOR。

For stocks on the radar this week, I'm gonna go with EMCOR.

这里确实坚持了电力和AI基础设施建设的路线。

Really sticking with the electricity and AI infrastructure build out here.

股票代码是EME。

The ticker is e m e.

这是全国最大的电力、煤炭、机械和暖通空调承包商之一。

This is one of the nation's largest electric coal, mechanical, and HVAC contractors.

嗯。

Yeah.

听起来这生意不够刺激对吧？

Doesn't that sound like an exciting business?

但我向你保证，就当前AI基础设施建设的‘镐与铲’阶段而言，这是最具吸引力的投资选择之一。

But I promise you, this is one of the more compelling investments, I think, in terms of that pick and pop pick and shovels AI build out sort of phase.

我认为这家公司是仅次于Qantas Systems的第二大承包商。

This is a company that, I think is the second largest contractor behind, Qantas Systems and quant or, yeah, Qantas Systems.

他们更专注于公用事业规模的电力领域。

And they're more like in utility scale power.

而EMCOR这家公司正进军数据中心市场。

These EMCOR is the company that's going into data centers.

他们正在进入电动汽车电气、制造设施和半导体设施领域。

They're going into, you know, EV electrical, manufacturing facilities, semiconductor facilities.

他们实际上是负责数据中心建设中大量电气、机械以及所有冷却系统的安装工作。

They're the ones that are actually doing a lot of the build out of the electrical, the mechanical, and all the cooling that you see that that needs to be installed in data centers.

我记得曾看过一项研究，显示如今数据中心55%的成本与暖通空调电气机械相关。

I think I saw a study one time where 55% of the cost of a data center these days is related to the HVAC electrical mechanical.

因此，在AI建设的这一特定环节，将需要投入巨额资金。

So there is tons of money that's gonna be have to be deployed in this particular part of the build out for AI.

未来几年，EMCORE公司似乎将从中获得巨大收益。

And, you know, next couple of years, it looks like EMCORE is gonna benefit incredibly well for this.

这只股票的估值，我认为还算合理。

The stock is, I would say, reasonably ish valued.

与大多数电气承包商相比，它可能略显昂贵。

Compared to most electrical contractors, it might be a little expensive.

但考虑到未来几年的增长前景，这个估值看起来相当合理。

But I think with the growth prospects that it has in front of it for the next couple of years, looks pretty reasonable.

我选择迪士尼。

I'm going go with Disney.

不仅仅是因为他们今早宣布与OpenAI合作，将旗下角色引入视频创作平台。

Not just because they announced a deal with OpenAI this morning to bring their characters onto their video creation platform.

主题公园就是台印钞机。

The theme parks are a cash machine.

确实如此。

They just are.

邮轮业务势头强劲。

The cruise line has excellent momentum.

邮轮行业从未如此繁荣，迪士尼在这块业务上非常进取。

It's never been a stronger time for the cruise business, and Disney has really gone aggressive on that.

他们在流媒体领域的一些创新举措可能长期提升盈利能力。

They're making some really interesting moves in streaming that could boost profitability long term.

谁知道呢？

Who knows?

你提到了华纳兄弟与Netflix的交易。

You mentioned the Warner Brothers Netflix deal.

迪士尼很可能在不久的将来成为最后剩下的两大流媒体平台之一。

Disney could be one of the the two streamers left in before too long.

简而言之，这个资产和知识产权的组合以16倍市盈率估值简直是白菜价。

Simply put, this is a collection of assets and intellectual property that valued at 16 times earnings is an absolute steal.

所以OpenAI的交易对我来说只是锦上添花。

So the OpenAI deal is just a bonus for me.

是的，马特。

Yeah, Matt.

我今天选择MercadoLibre，股票代码是MELI。

I'm going with MercadoLibre today, and that is ticker symbol m e l I.

我知道听众可能已经听腻了我们讨论这家公司。

And I know that listeners are probably sick of hearing us talk about this company.

但我告诉你，这家公司就是这么优秀。

But let me tell you, this company is just that good.

你拥有增长潜力，拥有竞争优势，还有估值优势。

You got growth, you got competitive advantages, the valuation.

好的。

Okay.

这是个有争议的话题，但我认为以30倍运营收入计算，这个估值非常合理。

That's a contentious debated subject, but I think it's a great valuation at 30 times its operating income.

不过我们来聊聊之前没谈过的话题——自主性。

But let's talk about something we haven't talked about before, and that's autonomy.

本周早些时候，MercadoLibre宣布与Agility Robotics合作，在其一处设施中测试人工智能人形机器人。

So earlier this week, MercadoLibre announced that it's partnering with Agility Robotics to test AI humanoid robots in one of its facilities.

也许这没什么大不了的。

Maybe it's nothing.

但也可能是大幅改善物流财务状况的第一步。

But maybe it's the first step for greatly improved logistics financials.

在我看来，MercadoLibre的竞争对手仍在试图弄清楚如何在拉丁美洲开展物流业务。

So in my view, MercadoLibre's competitors are still trying to figure out how to do logistics in Latin America.

与此同时，MercadoLibre可能已经解决了所有问题，并开始转向效率提升。

Meanwhile, MercadoLibre might be having that all figured out and moving on to efficiency.

因此我认为这是在拉丁美洲必须持有的股票。

So I think that this is the name to own in Latin America.

我想这可能是你今年第二次还是第三次关注MercadoLibre股票了？

I think this might be the is this the second or third time you may have, had MercadoLibre stocks on the radar this year?

对。

Yeah.

不。

No.

就当是吧。

Let's say yes.

本周我们讨论了MercadoLibre、迪士尼和EMCOR。

So we got MercadoLibre, Disney, and EMCOR to round out this week.

今天的节目时间就到这里。

And that's all the time we have for today.