假日购物清单中的逆势股票

有些人会列假日购物清单。

Some people make holiday shopping lists.

今天我们将在Motley Full Money上制定一份假日股票清单。

We're making a holiday stock list today on Motley Full Money.

今天是12月2日，星期二。

Today is Tuesday, December 2.

欢迎收听Motley Fool Money节目。

Welcome to Motley Fool Money.

我是主持人Emily Flippin。

I'm your host, Emily Flippin.

今天，我们邀请了Motley Fool分析师Jason Hall和Asit Sharma，一起讨论适合你假日购物清单的违规股票推荐。

And today, I'm joined by Motley Fool analyst Jason Hall and Asit Sharma to talk about favorite rule breaking stocks for your holiday shopping list.

但说实话。

But let's be real.

每年这个时候，我们都被促销活动、发货截止日期和节日广告包围着。

This time of year, we're all surrounded by sales, shipping deadlines, holiday ads.

但公司花钱并不意味着消费者也会跟着花钱。

But just because companies are spending doesn't necessarily mean consumers are too.

我们今天要讨论一些假日雷达股票。

We're gonna be discussing some holiday radar stocks here.

但首先，我想从我们上周末看到的黑色星期五和网络星期一的销售情况开始，以及一些关于年底假日消费的更广泛评论。

But first, I wanna have to start with what we saw this past weekend with Black Friday and Cyber Monday sales, as well as some broader commentary around holiday spending as we end out the year.

我不知道你们是否有同感，奥斯汀和杰森，但就我个人而言，我觉得这个假日购物季让消费者感到非常疲惫。

I don't know if anybody else feels this way, Austin and Jason, but personally, I feel like this holiday shopping season has just been a lot of deal fatigue from shoppers.

我的意思是，我到处都能看到折扣。

I mean, I see discounts everywhere.

消费者似乎对此有些厌倦，初步数据也支持这一点。

The consumer does seem a little bit over it, and it does seem like some of our initial data backs this up.

初步报告显示，今年黑色星期五的零售额比去年增长了约4%，但这没有考虑通货膨胀因素。

Initial reports are showing retail sales climbing around 4 percent on Black Friday this year in comparison to last, but that doesn't account for inflation.

如果你看看通货膨胀率，现在大约是3%。

If you look at inflation, it's around 3% right now.

所以实际上，我觉得今年消费者表现有点平淡。

So in practice, I kind of think consumers were a little flat this year.

Salesforce收集的数据也显示，黑色星期五购物期间的平均售价同比上涨了7%，但订单量下降了1%。

Salesforce also collected data that showed average selling prices were up 7% year over year for Black Friday shopping, but order volumes were down 1%.

Jason，我想先听听你的看法。

Jason, I wanna start with you.

当你听到这些数据，观察今年黑色星期五和假日季的数据时，最让你

When you hear that and when you look at the Black Friday and holiday data this year, what stands out to

对消费者有什么突出的印象？

you about the consumer?

我认为从氛围感知和数据对照来看，我们面临的是一个两极分化的经济状况——富裕阶层拥有大量资源并支撑着那些亮眼的总量数据。

I think the vibe check and the data lineup here for me, we have a bifurcated economy where the haves have a lot and are supporting, like, the big headline numbers.

但同时我们也看到，有相当一部分（可能还在扩大的）消费者群体不得不缩减开支来维持生计。

But we also have a large and maybe growing portion of consumers who are having to spend less to make ends meet.

这是我作为个人的感受。

Now, there's how I feel as a person.

但作为投资者的我认为，那些了解客户并清楚自身定位的公司才能持续胜出。

But then there's the investor in me, who thinks that the companies that know their customer and know what they are, are the ones that can continue to win.

你看看亚马逊（股票代码AMZN）、沃尔玛（股票代码WMT）这类公司。

So you look at companies like Amazon, ticker, AMZN, Walmart, ticker WMT.

它们在品类选择和价格方面占据优势。

They lead on selection and price.

当然要注意，亚马逊在食品杂货领域与沃尔玛的玩法不同。

The caveat, of course, that Amazon's playing a different game in groceries than Walmart.

再看TJX公司（股票代码TJX），它们持续成功是因为作为最精明的采购方，能快速消化制造商和分销商急需清仓的货物，并以低价销售获取可观利润。

Then you look at companies like TJX companies, and that's the ticker continues to win because they're the smartest buyers of goods that manufacturers and distributors have gotta get off of warehouse shelves that they know they can quickly sell for cheap and get good margins.

还有塔吉特（股票代码TGT）和科尔士（股票代码KSS）这类企业。

Then you have the Targets and Kohl's of the world, Target ticker TJ TGT and Kohl's KSS.

它们似乎陷入了中间困境，可能同时流失两端客群，又和其他企业一样承受着高昂成本的压力。

Seems like they're stuck in the middle, likely losing customers on both of those demographic ends while struggling with higher costs just like everybody else is along the way.

找到那些持续有效市场策略和卓越运营的公司，作为投资者，这些才是能持续赢家的企业。

You find the companies that have the go to market strategies that continue to work and the excellent operations, and then you continue and those are the ones that are gonna win as as investors.

再看看那些打破常规的企业，比如Shopify和MercadoLibre。

Then look at rule breakers like Shopify, MercadoLibre.

我认为这些都是卓越零售商的绝佳范例。

Think those are excellent examples of incredible retailers.

它们清楚自己的定位。

They know themselves.

它们了解自己的客户群。

They know their customers.

而关键在于——

And here's the big thing.

它们还拥有极其有利的长期顺风因素。

They also have really, really favorable long term tailwinds.

是啊。

Yeah.

听起来更像是那个新流行词——K型经济。

It sounds like more of that k shaped economy that is the new buzzword.

感觉他们谈论的是今年下半年的经济形势。

It feels like they talk about the economy in the second half of this year.

今年我听到关于K型经济和中产阶级受压的讨论比往年都多，但这种情况似乎确实存在。

I've heard I've heard more about the k shaped economy and the, pressured middle class more this year than any other year in the past, but it does seem like that is true.

对吧？

Right?

高消费人群依然愿意大手笔消费，但不幸的是，中产阶级正被许多零售商拒之门外。

Big spenders are willing to still spend big, but unfortunately, the middle class is being pushed out for a lot of these retailers.

如果你没有定位为折扣零售商，这确实令人担忧。

If you aren't positioned to be a discount retailer, it is concerning.

阿西特，我知道我们之前讨论过消费者在过去几年里表现出的韧性。

And, Asit, I know we we talked a lot about how resilient the consumer has been over the last few years.

你很擅长从宏观角度看问题。

You're pretty good at zooming out.

尽管面临通胀、关税和我们所见到的种种挑战，这种韧性仍能保持，这让我感到惊讶。

I'm surprised that the resiliency has been what it is despite the inflation, the tariffs, the the challenges that we've seen.

但当你观察假日季时，有没有特别关注哪些趋势能为你揭示2026年前消费者的状况？

But when you look at the holiday season, is there any trends in particular you're watching that would indicate the status of the consumer for you heading into 2026?

所以Emily，我的看法和Jason没有太大不同。

So, Emily, I don't see it a lot differently than Jason.

他提到的那些趋势正在明显显现，很容易发现。

The trends that he mentioned are are playing out very easy to spot.

富裕消费者支撑着整体数据。

So affluent shoppers, they're propping up the overall numbers.

而手头拮据的我们仍在购物。

And the more strapped of us are still shopping.

只是我认为我们变得更加精挑细选了。

It's just that I think we are exercising more selectivity.

这是我在市场上观察到的现象。

That's what I'm seeing in the marketplace.

当然，'先买后付'作为拮据消费者的资金来源正在增加。

And sure, buy now, pay later is increasing as a funding source for strapped consumers.

当我们把选择性视为一种现象时，这或许正是推动零售商走向K型命运的因素。

When we think about selectivity as a phenomenon, that may be what's driving a k shaped destiny for retailers.

例如，正如我们之前所说，沃尔玛（股票代码WMT）在本季早些时候就取得了更好的业绩。

For example, better results from Walmart symbol WMT, as we said before, that we saw earlier in this season.

他们实行广泛的价格策略。

They exercise broad based pricing.

既能吸引消费降级的高端消费者，又能持续迎合预算有限的普通人群。

They can attract affluent shoppers who are dripping down, and they also keep appealing to those of us who have less to spend.

TJX公司凭借精选商品策略，以及几乎每周都能将库存从分销中心高效配送到门店的能力表现出色。

TJX companies, they have the selection, and they're really great at getting their inventory from distribution centers into stores on almost a weekly basis.

还有Shopify（股票代码SHOP）。

And Shopify, s h o p.

Shopify在提供多样化选择方面表现卓越。

Shopify is great at choice.

那么作为消费者，当你预算有限时，你会选择在哪里消费呢？

So if you have less to spend as a consumer, where will you find the place you'll spend your dollars?

嗯，针对你特定的利基兴趣，这通常来自Shopify平台的店铺。

Well, with your specific niche interest, and that often comes from a Shopify based store.

现在谈到更大的趋势，当你观察网络周时，我看到了你看到的数据，艾米丽，我还查阅了Adobe Analytics提供的更多专注于线上商务的数据。

Now speaking of larger trends, when you look out at Cyber Week, I saw the data that you did, Emily, and I also looked at some other data, maybe more online commerce specific from Adobe Analytics.

这些数据似乎表明，像沃尔玛（想想塔吉特、百思买，股票代码BBY）和亚马逊（股票代码AMZN）这样的零售巨头，本季度的重点一直放在推动高价商品的销售上。

That seems to suggest that the mega retailers like Walmart, think of Target, Best Buy, symbol b b y, and Amazon, symbol AMZN, are focused or have been focused this season on moving big ticket items.

所以他们直接瞄准了那些高消费能力的客户。

So they're going straight to those affluent customers.

他们提供优惠活动来吸引这些客户。

They have deals to bring them in.

把这与高端消费者的行为结合起来看。

Put that together with what the higher end consumers are doing.

他们是人工智能工具的重度使用者。

They're power users of AI tools.

据报道，在这个网络购物季，他们大量使用AI聊天机器人来寻找优惠。

So reportedly, they used a lot of AI chatbots this cyber season to find those deals.

因此两者相互匹配上了。

So the two matched up with each other.

最终我们实现了网络周销售额7.7%的增长。

And so we end up with a 7.7 increase in Cyber Week sales.

线上电商部分销售额约440亿美元，几乎与去年略超8%的增幅持平。

This online commerce portion, that's about $44,000,000,000, nearly matching last year's increase, which was just over 8%.

说来惭愧，我自认在AI应用方面有些落后。

I consider myself a little bit of an AI laggard, unfortunately.

但即便像我这样的人，上周末也用AI工具辅助完成了节日购物——正如你提到的，这很可能既推动了电商扩张，又为有消费意愿的顾客开辟了新渠道。

But even, you know, the people like myself, I I used AI tools to help me with some holiday shopping over the course of the past weekend, and I expect that to your to your point, asset, a, it's probably driving a lot of the ecommerce expansion, but also just providing a new avenue for for consumers who are willing to spend.

不过正如你之前所说，消费者在选购节日礼物时确实表现得相当挑剔。

But to your earlier point, it does seem like consumers have been picky with the the what they're purchasing in terms of, you know, stocking their their hypothetical stocking here.

或许投资者对纳入投资组合的企业也该同样精挑细选。

But maybe investors should be just as picky with the businesses they put on their shopping list too.

接下来我们将连线杰森。

So up next, we're gonna be turning to Jason.

他将与我们讨论他正在考虑的第一支股票，以及为何在进入2025年之际，这支股票可能成为超越节日季的赢家。

He's gonna talk to us about the first stock that he's considering and and looking at as we head into the 2025 and why it could be a winner just beyond the holidays.

请继续关注我们。

So stick with us.

嘿，各位傻瓜。

Hey, fools.

我们稍作休息，插播今天节目的赞助商信息。

We're taking a quick break for a word from our sponsor for today's episode.

房地产。

Real estate.

它世代以来都是财富积累的基石，但也常因维修电话、租户纠纷和房产税成为投资者的主要烦恼来源。

It's been the cornerstone of wealth building for generations, but it's also often been a major headache for investors with three m maintenance calls, tenant disputes, and property taxes.

来看看Fundrise的旗舰基金——一个价值11亿美元的房地产投资组合，拥有太阳带社区4000多套独栋住宅，330万平方英尺的热门工业设施，全部由经验丰富的团队专业管理。

Enter Fundrise's flagship fund, a $1,100,000,000 real estate portfolio with more than 4,000 single family homes in the Sunbelt communities, 3,300,000 square feet of in demand industrial facilities, all professionally managed by an experienced team.

旗舰基金挖掘了房地产领域最具吸引力的长期增值潜力，既是对抗通胀的避险工具，也是股市之外的投资多元化选择。

The flagship fund taps into some of real estate's most attractive long term appreciation potential, a hedge against inflation, and diversification beyond the stock market.

检查，再检查，三检查。

Check, check, and check.

这一切都无需复杂的文书工作、巨额首付以及令人心力交瘁的房东职责。

All without the complex paperwork, massive down payments, and soul sucking landlord duties.

访问fundrise.com/fool查看投资组合，查阅历史回报率，了解房地产投资能有多简单。

Visit fundrise.com/fool to explore the portfolio, check out historical returns, and see just how much easier investing in real estate can be.

投资前请仔细考量Fundrise旗舰基金的投资目标、风险、费用及支出。

Carefully consider the investment objectives, risks, charges, and expenses of the Fundrise Flagship Fund before investing.

该信息及其他详情可在基金招募说明书@fundrise.com/flagship中查阅。

This and other information can be found in the Fund's prospectus @fundrise.comslashflagship.

此为付费广告。

This is a paid advertisement.

欢迎回到Motley Fool财经节目。

Welcome back to Motley full money.

我是Emily Flippin，与Jason Hall和Osset Sharma一起，为大家介绍我们最看好的假日购物季颠覆性股票。

I'm Emily Flippin here with Jason Hall and Osset Sharma talking about our favorite rule breaking stocks for your holiday shopping list.

我们讨论了2025年假日消费及其可能揭示的消费者趋势，现在让我们将其转化为具体的股票投资建议。

We talked about twenty twenty five holiday spending and what it might be telling us about the consumer, but now let's turn that into a concrete stock idea.

Jason，今年你推荐投资者在假日购物清单上加入哪只股票？为什么它值得在投资组合中占有一席之地？

Jason, what is the stock you're putting on investors holiday list this year, and why does it deserve a spot in a portfolio?

Emily，我们不如去墨西哥BBB Foods采购些节日食品如何？

Emily, what do you say we head down to Mexico for some holiday grocery shopping at BBB Foods?

你觉得怎么样？

What do you say?

Jason，我觉得这主意很棒。

I think that sounds great, Jason.

好的。

Okay.

那么我们先来了解下这家公司。

So let's start with what it is.

这是一家位于全球增长最快、最具活力经济体之一的硬折扣食品杂货商。

It's a hard discount grocer in one of the fastest growing, most dynamic economies in the world.

商业模式非常简单且经过验证。

Business model is really simple, and it's proven.

与沃尔玛（顺便一提，这家公司在美国边境以南有相当大的业务版图）可能提供同一产品的多种版本不同，BBB食品提供的选择更为有限，并尽可能优先采用自有品牌产品。

Instead of offering a lot of different versions of the same product like you might see at a Walmart, which, by the way, has a pretty huge presidents presence south of The US border, BBB foods offers a far more limited selection and also prioritizes private label products when possible.

这带来了几个非常重要的好处。

This helps in some really, really important ways.

首先，它简化了库存管理，减少了库存单位数量，降低了采购人员的工作量。

First, it simplifies its inventory management, reducing the number of SKUs that it carries, reducing buyer interactions.

这使得从配送到货架陈列的整个运营流程更加高效。

That helps keep operations from the distribution all the way through the store shelf more efficient.

其次，这对门店内部运营也有极大价值。

Next, it helps into massively valuable ways inside the stores.

通过减少单一产品的选择，它能为更多产品类型腾出空间。

By having fewer single product choices, it has more room for more product types.

因此，顾客不会在过道上花费太多时间纠结该买哪种洗洁精，而是能更快地拿取更多品类的商品。

As a result, customers spend less time clogging the aisle trying to choose which dishwashing soap to buy and more time grab grabbing more products across more categories.

这个商业模式真的非常、非常有效。

Business model is really, really working.

即使以惊人的速度开设新店，现有门店的销售额仍持续以接近20%的高增长率攀升。

Sales at existing stores are routinely growing in the high teens even as it opens stores, new stores at a breakneck pace.

公司在过去四个季度新开了528家门店，目前拥有超过3100家店铺，并计划在未来几年内将这一数字提升至近五倍。

Companies over the past four quarters has opened 528 new locations, now has over 3,100 stores, has a goal to almost five x that count in coming years.

我喜欢这个选择的多个层面。

I like this pick on many levels.

我是

I am

我是墨西哥市场长期发展轨迹的粉丝，而且我喜欢你提到的这种更简化的消费品选择。

a fan of the long term trajectory of the Mexican market, and I I like this simpler consumable selection that you're talking about.

我刚从印度旅行回来，在那里时意识到，虽然商业越来越西化，但作为消费者走进一家商店，发现简单商品没有无数选择的感觉真好。

I just got back from a trip to India and realized when I was there, like, yeah, okay, commerce is becoming more and more like the West, but it's still so nice to walk into a store as a consumer and not have a gazillion choices for simple items.

所以我认为这对零售商有利，是个很好的经济模式。

So I think that's to the favor of the retailer, good economic model.

杰森，唯一让我有点担心的是资产负债表看起来有点紧张。

Jason, the only thing that worries me here a little bit is that the balance sheet looks a bit stretched.

我是说，营运资本出现了倒挂。

I mean, working capital is upside down.

应付账款是存货的三倍，这意味着他们可能真的在挤压供应商，并且账面上有高额的租赁负债。

Accounts payable is three times the size of inventory, which means they could really be stretching their vendors and their high lease liabilities on the books.

我认为经营现金流看起来不错，但部分原因可能是我刚才提到的存货与应付账款不匹配的问题。

I think operating cash flow looks good, but part of this might be on that inventory payables mismatch I just mentioned.

而且随着门店扩张，他们似乎需要大量资本支出。

And they seem to have a lot of CapEx needs as they go forward with that store build out.

所以，是否担心公司未来可能会面临资金紧张的问题？

So just any concerns there that the company might become capital constrained in the future?

嗯。

Yeah.

我我不这么认为，不过我要这么说。

I I don't think so, but I'll I'll say this.

我注意到这家公司营运资金恶化的情况，它是在几年前上市的。

I that working capital deterioration is one of the things that I have noticed the company went public a couple of years ago.

但有趣的是，这在某种程度上更像是一个特点而非缺陷。

But the interesting thing is that it's in a way, there's a little bit of a feature going on and less of a bug.

它拥有负营运资金周期，这意味着在许多情况下，它实际上是在向客户销售商品并收款后才需要支付供应商款项。

It has a negative working capital cycle, which means in a lot of cases, it's actually selling goods and getting money from its customers before it has to pay its vendors.

当然这种情况不会永远持续下去。

Now that's not gonna last forever.

但由于业务正处于这个阶段，两件事正在发生：其同店销售额增长率为17%。

But because the business is in this phase where two things are happening, its comps are 17% comps growth.

因此它需要向现有门店引入更多库存，同时以约15%至16%的速度开设新门店。

So it's having to bring a lot more inventory into its existing stores, and it's opening new stores at, like, a 15 to 16% rate.

它正在向门店大量进货，但在需要支付供应商款项前就已经售出商品并收回现金流。

It's bringing a ton of inventory into its stores, but it's selling it out of the stores and collecting cash flow before it has to pay those vendors.

这就是为什么你会看到其应付账款的增长速度比库存增长速度更快。

So that's why you're seeing that the the money that it owes out growing at a faster rate than the inventory that's in.

所以这种情况不会永远持续下去，但在当前高增长、高同店销售阶段，你所发现的不匹配，正如我所说，实际上更像是一种特性，特别是当你考虑到资产负债表上的许多现金流出都与它现在拥有的资产相关，这些资产与其门店数量增长挂钩。

So it's not gonna last forever, but in the current high growth, high comp stage, the mismatch you identify, like I said, is really more of a feature, especially when you combine it with a lot of the cash outflows on the balance sheet are tied to assets that it now owns that are tied to its store count growth.

它产生了大量运营现金流。

It generates a lot of operating cash.

这些运营现金流在很大程度上足以支持其增长，尤其是当你将其与约1.3亿美元的净现金、极低的债务水平和相当可观的现金储备结合起来看时。

And that operating cash is largely sufficient to support its growth when you especially when you pair that with about a 130,000,000 in net cash, a really small debt position and a pretty decent amount of cash.

这让我有点联想到Dutch Bros和Sprouts Farmers Markets的混合体。

It kinda reminds me of a hybrid between Dutch Bros and Sprouts Farmers Markets.

这些股票的代码是BROS和SFM。

Those tickers are b r o s and s f m.

虽然不完全是一个公平的比较，但当你们讨论资产负债表及其延伸时，让我有点联想到Dutch Bros也在以约15%的速度扩张门店数量，同时兼具Sprouts Farmers Market在美国作为特色杂货商所培育的利基市场。

It's not exactly a fair comparison, but, when you guys talk about the the balance sheet and the extension there reminds me a little bit of what Dutch going through also building out its store count at around that 15% clip, but also with some of the niche that Sprouts Farmers Market has has cultivated in terms of a grocer here in The United States.

显然它们的市场覆盖范围和竞争定位不同，但这确实是我非常感兴趣的一家公司，Jason。

Now it's obviously not the same footprint and, different competitive positioning, but this is certainly one that I'm really interested in, Jason.

而且Asit，我认为你至少得费一番功夫来说服我接受你的观点。

And, Asit, I think you have your work cut out for me at least to convince me about your idea.

接下来我们要讨论的是你为节日股票清单打破常规的选股思路，以及如何将它们整合成一个长期投资组合。

But up next, we're gonna be talking about your own rule breaking idea for your holiday stock list as well as how to put them all together in a long term portfolio.

请继续关注我们。

So stick with us.

欢迎回到Motley Fool Money节目。

Welcome back to Motley Fool Money.

我们正在构建一份打破常规的节日股票采购清单。

We're building a holiday stock shopping list of rule breaking ideas.

Jason已经分享了他的选择，但现在我想听听Asit你的看法。

Jason's already shared his pick, but, Asit, I wanna turn to you now.

今年你准备把哪只股票放进我们的节日清单？为什么我们现在就该对它感到兴奋？

What stock are you putting on our holiday list this year, and why should we be excited about it today?

Emily，我今年要为你推荐一只非常规且略带风险的节日股票。

So, Emily, I am putting a very rule breakery and, frankly, slightly risky stock on my holiday list for you this year.

这家公司是Astero Labs，股票代码ALAB。

Astero Labs is the company symbol a l a b.

节日快乐。

Happy holidays.

这是一家半导体行业的专业公司，生产能提升数据中心内部信号速度与数据传输速率的组件。

This is a specialty company in the semiconductor industry that makes components that boost signal speed and data transfer within data centers.

想象一下数据中心里的组件，比如GPU和CPU之间的通信。

So think of components in a data center, maybe GPUs and CPUs talking to each other.

它制造的组件能加速数据中心内部的信号传输与数据交换。

It makes components that boost signal speed and data transfer within data centers.

可以想象数据中心里的GPU和CPU。

So think of GPUs and CPUs in a data center.

Astero Labs生产的小型设备能加速这些组件之间的通信。

Astero Labs makes the widgets that speed up the conversation between those components.

这是一家利基制造商。

This is a niche manufacturer.

其客户包括英伟达（股票代码NVDA）、超微半导体AMD、英特尔（股票代码INTC），以及许多你听说过的云超大规模服务商。

It supplies to NVIDIA, symbol NVDA, AMD, advanced micro devices, also symbol AMD, Intel, symbol INTC, and many cloud hyperscalers that you have heard of.

艾米丽，目前该公司正在研发一项名为Compute Express Link的下一代技术。

Now it's working on a next generation technology, Emily, called Compute Express Link.

这项技术令人兴奋，因为它能让服务器或服务器机架的不同部分共享内存，整合内存资源，从而大幅提升整个机架内的处理速度。

And this is sort of exciting because it will allow different parts of a server or a server rack to share memory, to pull memory together, to make all of the processing within that rack go a lot faster.

这将推动未来几年的增长。

This is gonna fuel growth for the next few years.

Astera Labs已经实现盈利。

Astera Labs is already profitable.

其营业利润率约为15%。

It has a an operating margin of around 15.

收入正以两位数的速度增长。

Revenue is growing at a double digit clip.

我欣赏这家公司的一点是它由创始人领导。

What I like about this company is that it's founder led.

两位联合创始人持有约9%的股份，并且在我们规则破坏者数据库的多个维度上都获得高分。

The two cofounders own about 9% of shares, and it scores high in our rule breaker database on several fronts.

Motley Fool专有的规则破坏者数据库给出了82分的超级评分，这相当不错。

The proprietary Motley Fool rule breaker database, it has a super score of 82, which is pretty good.

这是一个典型的重要新兴市场先行者案例。

Now this is a classic case of a first mover in an important emerging market.

这个市场就是信号互连市场。

So that is the signal interconnect market.

也可以说它被高估了，这是规则破坏者的另一个特征。

And also, could say it's overvalued, which is another trade a rule breaker.

这只股票确实以溢价交易。

The stock does trade at a premium.

它未能通过COLA测试。

It fails the COLA test.

如果你打个响指让世界忘记Astera Labs，我的意思是，大多数人从未听说过这家公司。

If you snap your fingers with the world miss Astera Labs, I mean, most people have never heard of this company.

所以目前答案是，没错，如果它失败了，没人会怀念这家企业。

So right now, the answer is, yeah, if it fails it, no one would miss this business.

但通过我提到的Compute Express Link技术，它是否会变得更重要？

But could it become more important with this Compute Express Link technology I mentioned?

是的。

Yes.

像NVIDIA这样的公司对看到这个平台的发展非常感兴趣。

Companies like NVIDIA are very interested to see that platform developed.

我会敦促任何想投资于此的人做好功课，或许采用美元成本平均法，建立一个合理的仓位规模。

I would urge anyone who wants to invest in this to do your homework and maybe dollar cost average in, take a rational position size.

我的问题是，Asit，这其中有多少只是当前AI基础设施持续扩张和建设中的‘镐和铲’游戏？

My my question, Asit, is how much of this is just the picks and shovels play on the continued proliferation and build out for AI infrastructure that's happening now?

主要是这样，还是云计算和加速计算的广泛发展足以使其成为赢家，如果当前的AI竞赛未能实现

Is it mostly that, or is the cloud broadly and accelerated computing broadly enough to make this a winner if the current AI race doesn't lead

我们所期望的货币化理想国？

to the monetization promise land that we're hoping for?

Jason，我喜欢这个问题，因为我认为这是我们投资几乎所有因这波建设浪潮而受益的公司时都需要问的问题。

I love this question, Jason, because I think this is a question we need to ask of almost every company that we invest in that is getting a tailwind from all this build out.

答案是，无论哪种情况，Astera的技术都将非常重要。

The answer is that Astera's technology is gonna be important either way.

所以我认为，即使承诺的基础设施建设未能完全实现，这家公司仍有其立足之地。

So I think there's a place for this company even if the promised build out doesn't materialize to the nth degree.

我们应该记住这一点，我本应早些提到，它的客户集中度确实很高。

We should remember here, and I should have mentioned this earlier, it does have a high concentration of customers.

仅少数几家大型超大规模服务商和半导体巨头就能贡献任意季度70%以上的收入。

So just a handful of these big hyperscalers and big semiconductor players will make up 70% plus of revenue in any given quarter.

这可能分散在三到四家公司之间。

So that may be spread between three or four companies.

因此目前来看，它集中在这一理念上。

So for the time being, it's concentrated in this idea.

但随着时间推移，这种集中度将会降低。

But as the years go on, it's going to become less concentrated.

而且我认为，无论如何，它都将继续存在。

And also, I think either way, it's still gonna be around.

问题在于我们能在这次AI规模的大规模建设中获取多少收益。

The question is how much we'll be able to to get out of this very huge build out in AI scale.

我我得说，我认为标准定得很高。

I I will say, I think the bar was set high.

我很喜欢这里的一家墨西哥零售商。

I love a Mexican retailer here.

但对于82的超平方数，Ossit，我认为你在Astera Labs的bullbreakers数据库中低估了这一点。

But with a super square of 82, Ossit, I think you undersold that in the bullbreakers database for Astera Labs.

这个数字高得惊人。

It's incredibly high.

这无疑是一家非常有趣的公司。

Certainly a very interesting company.

Jason，在我们结束今天的节目时，我想把这个问题转交给你。

Jason, as we wrap up today's show, I wanna pass this question off to you.

如果我们的听众像我一样喜欢BBB食品，同时也喜欢Astera Labs，并且正在考虑如何将这些加入他们的投资组合，而不是像这个假期冲动购物清单那样冲动购买股票，该怎么办？

If if our listeners are somebody like me and they like BBB foods and they also like Astera Labs and they're thinking about how they can add these to their portfolio without just impulse buying stocks the same way they might be impulse buying shopping lists this holiday season?

他们应该如何考虑将这些加入投资组合？

How should they think about adding these to a portfolio?

嗯，FOMO（害怕错过）是真实存在的，而且数据确实表明，从整体来看，考虑FOMO并一次性买入所有你想持有的股票可能是最佳选择。

Well, FOMO is real, and the the data does suggest that maybe thinking about FOMO and buying all of the stock you want to own up front is the best thing to do in the aggregate.

但我们不是统计数据。

But we're not aggregates.

我们是现实世界中的人类，需要找到一种能在实际生活中坚持并有效的策略。

We're humans in the real world, and we have to find a strategy that we can stick with that will work in our real life.

对我来说，这通常意味着我会先建立一个小仓位，然后可以随时间逐步加仓。

And for me, that generally means that I do start with a small starter position, and I can add to it over time.

想想我们讨论的这两家公司，它们更年轻、更新，波动性很大，容易受到宏观因素影响导致股价大幅波动。

And you think about these two companies we've talked about, they're younger, newer, very volatile, very exposed to macro things that can make the stocks move a ton.

而且它们是那种你通常会想要逐步加仓的企业类型。

And they're they're the kind of businesses that you wanna add to over time, I think, generally.

以BBB食品为例，我曾在比现在低得多的价格买入，也曾在与当前价格相近的水平买入。

BBB Foods, for example, I bought at much lower prices than today's, and I bought it at prices that are very similar to the the the current price.

因此我认为更重要的是，评估固然重要，但对于一家试图在未来十到十五年内将规模扩大五倍的公司而言，业务执行力才是我们盈利的关键。

So I think what matters more is evaluation is important, but business execution for a company that's trying to like five x its size over the next ten or fifteen years, that business execution is how we're going to profit.

所以一个审慎的流程应专注于向成功企业追加投资。

So a deliberate process that focuses on adding more money to winning businesses.

这听起来可能非常违背常规。

This probably sounds really rule breakery.

这帮助我既避免了FOMO（错失恐惧症），又规避了冲动购买的陷阱。

Helps me avoid both the FOMO and the trap of the impulse buy.

我会把冲动消费留给超市收银台通道的垃圾食品，伙计们。

I'll save the impulse buys, guys, for the, junk food at the, supermarket checkout aisle.

这些当然是无伤大雅的冲动消费。

Those are certainly fine impulse buys to have.

我听到的建议是让我们的投资组合保持更长期的视野，就像我们的节日购物清单一样。

What I'm hearing is to keep our port portfolios a little bit longer term focus on our holiday shopping list here.

但对于听众们，我希望这能给他们提供几个有趣的新股票点子，或许他们可以将其加入自己的年终节日购物清单中。

But for our listeners, I hope this gives them a couple of interesting new stock ideas that they might add to their own holiday shopping list as we round out the end of the year.

Jason和Asit，非常感谢你们今天参加节目。

Jason and Asit, thank you both so much for joining today.

谢谢，Emily。

Thanks, Emily.

非常感谢，Emily。

Thanks a lot, Emily.

一如既往，节目嘉宾可能对他们讨论的股票持有相关权益，Motley Fool也可能有正式推荐或反对意见，因此请不要仅凭听到的内容买卖股票。

As always, people on the program may have interest in the stocks they talk about, and the Motley Fool may have formal recommendations for or against, so don't buy or sell stocks based solely on what you hear.

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我是Emily Flippin，代表Jason Hall、Ossit Sharma及整个Motley Fool Money团队。

For Jason Hall, Ossit Sharma, and the entire Motley Fool Money team, I'm Emily Flippin.

明天见。

We'll see you tomorrow.