半决赛、住房与零售，哦天哪！

半导体、房地产和零售行业的巨头们本周都公布了业绩数据。

The biggest names in semiconductors, housing, and retail are all putting up numbers this week.

这里是《Motley Coal Money》节目。

This is Motley Coal Money.

欢迎收看《Motley Full Money》节目。

Welcome to Motley Full Money.

我是泰勒·克劳，今天和我一起的是Fool的长期撰稿人马特·弗兰克尔和乔恩·克瓦斯。

I'm Tyler Crow, and today, I'm joined by longtime Fool contributors, Matt Frankel and Jon Kwas.

我们将讨论财报、财报、更多的财报，因为我们有沃尔玛的财报。

We're gonna talk about earnings and more earnings and more earnings because we had Walmart.

我们有劳氏的财报。

We had Lowe's.

我们有家得宝的财报。

We had Home Depot.

我们有塔吉特的财报。

We had Target.

我们还有一大堆其他公司要讨论。

We had a whole bunch of other companies.

我们通常会在节目中关注潜力股，但说实话这周我们连这点时间都挤不出来。

We normally do stocks on our radar, but frankly, we just didn't even have time this week.

不过我们首先要讨论的是全球最大公司的财报——英伟达。

But we're gonna start with the biggest company in the world reporting earnings, and that's NVIDIA.

如果我们不讨论它，那简直是重大失职。

It would almost be malpractice if we didn't talk about it.

这是一家市值4.4万亿美元的企业。

It's a $4,400,000,000,000 company.

昨天公布的财报再次呈现了——说实话我个人觉得——难以置信的盈利表现。

It reported earnings yesterday and delivered another quarter of, frankly, in my opinion, hard to believe earnings.

我到现在还在消化这个事实：如此规模的企业实现1850亿美元年化利润的同时，竟还能保持65%的同比收入增长。

It's still like, I'm still wrapping my head around the idea that a company of this size getting a $185,000,000,000 in annualized earnings is still putting up 65% year over year revenue growth.

这简直让我震惊到无以复加。

It's just blowing my mind at this point.

现在，再次强调，所有这些都令人惊讶，我相信你们也有自己的意外发现。

Now, again, all of this surprising, I'm sure you guys had some surprises as well.

所以我想在房间里转一圈，看看大家对这份财报的最大收获是什么。

So I wanna go around the room here and see what were your biggest takeaways from this earnings report.

好的，泰勒。

Yeah, Tyler.

这些数字确实庞大。

These are big numbers.

看看过去十二个月的营收数据。

You look at the trailing twelve month revenue.

相比可比的过去十二个月营收，增长了65%。

It's up 65% from the comparable trailing twelve month revenue.

这是个惊人的增长率。

That's a huge growth rate.

公司预计下个季度（即第四财季）的营收增长率仍将达到65%。

It expects 65% revenue growth rate in the next quarter, so fiscal fourth quarter.

在这种规模下，这几乎是难以想象的。

At this scale, that's almost incomprehensible.

但这是首席财务官Colette Kress的原话。

But here's the quote from CFO Colette Kress.

我们目前可以看到，从今年年初到2026年底，Blackwell和Rubin的收入将达到5000亿美元。

We currently have visibility to half 1,000,000,000,000 in Blackwell and Rubin revenue from the start of this year through the end of calendar year 2026.

所以基本上，根据这段话，其中11个月的收入已经入账。

So basically, according to this quote, eleven months of that, it's already in the book.

所以我们关注的是接下来的13个月。

So we're looking at the next thirteen months.

如果这是正确的，而且这不是订单，也不是已确认的收入，而是可见性，这意味着2026年数据中心收入大约为3000亿美元，也就是明年。

If this is correct and this isn't orders, this isn't revenue in the bag, but this is visibility, It's implying roughly 300,000,000,000 in data center revenue in in calendar twenty twenty six, so next year.

这是一个持续惊人的增长率，在这种规模下是天文数字般难以理解的增长率，目前保持着高利润率，第三季度运营利润率为63%。

That's an ongoing incredible growth rate, astronomically large incomprehensible growth rate at this scale, That's keeping its margins high right now, at 63% operating margin in Q3.

我不知道我们是否见过类似的情况。

I don't know if we've ever seen anything like this.

我很高兴约翰引用了他们管理层的话。

I'm glad John brought up a quote from their management.

对我来说，最大的收获可能是定性的，而非定量的。

For me, also, the biggest takeaways might be qualitative, not quantitative.

例如，黄仁勋提到英伟达生产的云GPU（约翰提到了其中几款产品）基本上已经'售罄'。

For example, Jensen Huang said that the cloud GPUs that NVIDIA makes, John mentioned a couple of their the products, are essentially, quote, sold out.

而且计算需求在训练和推理领域持续加速增长并产生复合效应。

And that compute demand keeps accelerating and compounding again across training and inference.

关于约翰提到的盈利能力问题，值得注意的是这些利润率正如你所说，还在以某种方式持续提升。

To follow-up on what John mentioned with with profitability, it's worth noting that in these margins, like you said, keep getting better somehow.

看起来他们似乎做不到，但他们确实做到了，这意味着盈利增速超过了营收增速。

They're the it seems like they can't, and then they do, which means earnings are growing faster than revenue.

第三季度盈利同比增长62%或67%，而季度营收增长为62%。

Earnings in the third quarter grew at 62 or 67% year over year versus 62% quarterly revenue growth.

所以这不仅是一个营收增长的故事，更是一个盈利能力同步提升的故事。

So it it's not only a story of growing revenue, it's growing profitability as well.

过去一周，除了英伟达发布财报那天，可以说一些大型科技公司的股价出现了比往常更大的跌幅，连带整个大盘也受到影响——因为如今前十强公司占大盘权重实在太大，它们的走势基本决定了市场方向。

This past week, I would say the day that NVIDIA reported aside, there's been some, I would say, larger than usual drops, in stock prices for some of the big tech companies and, by default, the broader market because the top 10 companies make up such a large portion of the broader market these days that they are gonna pretty much move the market where they see fit.

我们作为投资者——无论是我们三个还是Motley Fool——始终认为只要投资逻辑成立，投资者最好的策略就是买入股票然后坐着不动。

We continue we, as investors, like either three of us, Motley Fool, we continue to believe that as long as the thesis of an investment is intact, investors are best off just buying the stock and sitting on their butts.

查理·芒格说过不同观点，但我不想惹制作人生气。

Charlie Munger said something different, but I don't wanna get in trouble with my producers.

逻辑颠覆性事件。

The thesis altering item.

所以如果投资逻辑真的改变，那很可能与英伟达芯片及过去几个季度——甚至一两年间——我们看到的所有配套基础设施支出有关。

So if a thesis does change, it I I it seems like it would be spending on NVIDIA chips and all the supporting infrastructure that we've seen over these past quarters in maybe year, two years, three years.

可以说如果现在这种军备竞赛式的芯片争夺战，资金不是流向回报率最高的领域，那就可能构成逻辑颠覆。

It's you could say that if it's being done in this arms race to control the most chips and things like that, instead of being allocated as the best place to make a return, that would seem like it would be thesis altering.

这某种程度上正是'我们处于泡沫中'的论调依据。

And that is kind of the thesis to say that we're in a bubble.

所以我要再次提出这个问题——因为金融媒体天天讨论——这个绕不开的泡沫疑问。

So I'm gonna bring it back up again because we bring it up so many times, and it it it gets discussed so much in financial media these days is the obligatory bubble question.

对你们每个人来说，英伟达最新的财报是缓解了你们对潜在泡沫的担忧，还是加剧了这种担忧？

To each of you, does this most recent NVIDIA earnings report ease your concerns about a potential bubble or exacerbate them?

我之前说过，我觉得人工智能目前正处于某种选择性泡沫中。

I I've said before that I feel like AI is in somewhat of a selective bubble right now.

我的意思是，市场上有些股票（不包括英伟达）估值虚高，因为投资者认为AI会让业务快速增长十倍。

What I mean by that is some stocks out there, not Nvidia, are are very inflated because investors think AI is gonna 10x the business quickly.

说到这个，我想到像Palantir这样的公司。

Companies like Palantir come to mind when I say that.

至于那些真正在建设AI基础设施的科技巨头，我并不认为存在泡沫。

When it comes to the big tech companies that are really building out the infrastructure for AI itself, I really don't see it as a bubble.

首先，他们正在构建具有实际应用场景的实体设施，比如数据中心。

For one thing, they're building real things with practical use cases, like data centers.

随着大语言模型和AI技术整体能力提升，对算力的需求几乎会呈指数级增长——就像黄仁勋说的那样。

As these large language models and AI technology in general gets more capable, the need for more compute will grow almost exponentially, like Jensen Huang said.

让我印象深刻的一个数字是预计第四季度650亿美元的收入，这意味着英伟达收入环比将再增长14%。

One number that stood out to me is the $65,000,000,000 in revenue that's expected in the fourth quarter, which would be an additional 14% growth sequentially in NVIDIA's revenue.

这肯定是直接受到谷歌、Meta、亚马逊等公司在基础设施上投入远超预期的影响。

That has to be a direct impact of when you saw companies like Google, Meta, Amazon investing more than anyone had expected in infrastructure.

所以对巨头们来说，我并不认为存在泡沫。

So for the big ones, I don't really think it's a bubble.

是的。

Yeah.

英伟达这份报告缓解了我对投资泡沫的担忧。

This report from NVIDIA is easing my concerns when it comes to an investment bubble.

我同意马特的看法。

I agree with Matt.

确实有些公司估值过高，这点我不否认。

There are companies out there that are overvalued, and I don't deny that.

但这种情况其实一直存在。

But that's kind of always the case.

当谈到整个AI热潮时，看到这些数字后你难免会问：泡沫何时会达到顶峰？

When it comes to this whole AI play, this AI trend, you start to look at some of these numbers and you and you're asking with a bubble, when does the spending peak?

就我个人而言，在支出方面我还没看到山顶。

And personally, I still haven't seen the top of the mountain when it comes to the spending.

你看我们已经引用了英伟达的说法，但所有这些其他参与者仍在表示，就我们目前能预测的范围而言，我们的产品已经售罄。

You look we already had the NVIDIA quote, but all of these other players are continuing to say, look, we're we're as far as out as we can project, we're sold out.

你看看那些内存供应商也是如此。

You look the memory players as well.

那些为数据中心提供内存的供应商们都在说：

The ones who are supplying the memories for these data centers, they're saying, look.

我们已经在接收2027年的订单了，因为2026年的产能已经全部预订完。

We're already taking orders for 2027 because 2026 is already sold out.

所以这让我对所谓泡沫论的担忧稍微缓解了些。

So that to me says, it puts me a little bit more at ease when it comes to this talk of a bubble.

那么我最初为什么担心泡沫呢？

Now why am I concerned about a bubble in the first place?

因为这些数字实在大得离谱。

Because these numbers are so stinking large.

我们谈论的是数千亿美元的订单。

We're talking orders and hundreds of billions of dollars.

我们说的是每年数万亿美元的基础设施总支出。

We're talking about trillions of dollars in infrastructure spend as a whole annually.

这些数字太大，我这小脑袋瓜实在难以理解。

Those numbers are too big for my puny mind to comprehend.

所以我确实担心泡沫问题，但英伟达的财报持续让我安心，因为那里确实存在持续的真实需求。

So I do get concerned about a bubble, but the NVIDIA report continues to put it at ease because there is real ongoing demand there.

我认为有一个行业真的希望能分到那数万亿支出的一杯羹，那就是房地产业。

One sector that I think really wishes they could get some of that trillions of, spending going on is the housing industry.

接下来，我们将关注家装行业的财报表现。

So coming up, we're gonna do some earnings reports from the home improvement sector.

在我看来，在所有零售企业中，家得宝和劳氏是最值得关注的公司之一。

Of all the retail companies out there, Home Depots and Lowe's are, in my opinion, some of the most fascinating to follow.

并不是因为它们会像某些企业那样季度性地爆出意外消息——比如突然的业绩波动。

Not because they, you know, put up weird surprises from quarter to quarter, like, surprise.

你没想到会这样吧。

You didn't know this was coming.

但在我看来，这为我们提供了一个观察房地产市场的独特窗口。

But more, in my view, it gives us a unique window into the housing market.

它们是两家最大的家装零售商。

They are the two largest, home improvement retailers.

第三家我甚至都叫不上名字，谁是这两家公司的追赶者呢？因为它们几乎形成了双头垄断。

And the third I don't even know if I could name the third and and who is the, the trailer behind these two companies because they are almost a duopoly.

家得宝和劳氏本周早些时候都发布了财报。

Both Home Depot and Lowe's reported earlier this week.

和上个季度一样，我们仍处于疲软房地产市场的观点似乎依然成立——房屋销售低迷，家装二次信贷的发放也表现平淡。

And like the prior quarter, the thesis that we're still in a weak housing market still seems to be holding up with tepid housing sales, tepid issuance of second lines of home credit for home improvement and things like that.

情况似乎相对稳定，我想更具体地听听你们对这两家公司的看法，先从家得宝和劳氏开始。

It seems to be relatively consistent, and I I wanted to get your guys' takes on the companies a little bit more specifically, starting with Home Depot and Lowe's.

比如，对两家公司进行对比分析。

Like, com giving a compare and contrast of the two.

我们是否从两家公司看到了相似的结果？

Did we see similar results from both of them?

如果不是的话，你认为哪一家表现更好？

And if not, what one did better in your view?

泰勒，关于双头垄断你说得对。

Tyler, you're right about the duopoly.

如果要我猜的话，我猜Ace Hardware可能是第三名，但我不确定。

If I had to guess, my best guess would be that Ace Hardware is the number three, but I don't know that for a fact.

这两家公司我都不会说它们的盈利表现有多出色。

Neither one of these companies I wouldn't call either of them great in terms of earnings.

家得宝已经连续三个季度盈利不及预期。

Home Depot missed earnings for the third consecutive quarter.

我记得他们过去总是能连续多个季度超出预期，现在却下调了业绩指引。

I remember when they used to beat quarter after quarter after quarter, and they lowered their guidance.

他们现在预计2025全年盈利将同比下降5%。

They now expect a 5% year over year earnings decline for the full year of 2025.

他们正确地归咎于疲软的房地产市场导致需求不足，以及我们经历的相对平静的自然灾害季节。

They blame the weak housing market correctly for the lack of demand, and the relatively calm natural disaster season we saw.

这影响了发电机和屋顶材料等产品的预期销量。

It hurt expected sales of things like generators and roofing supplies.

不过我想我们都同意这算是幸福的烦恼，总比给消费者带来普遍困扰要好。

Although, I think we would all agree that that's a good problem to have, you know, better than, you know, just generally consumer headaches.

抵押贷款利率持续保持高位。

Mortgage rates continue to stay very high.

请记住，房主主要通过动用房屋净值来为大型项目融资。

And keep in mind that the main way homeowners finance large projects is by tapping into home equity.

正如你所料，作为双头垄断企业，劳氏与家得宝有许多相似之处。

Lowe's had many similarities to Home Depot, as you would expect, being a duopoly.

例如，劳氏同样下调了全年盈利预期。

It also lowered its full year earnings guidance, for example.

劳氏在第三季度的可比销售额略有增长。

Lowe's grew comparable sales, slightly in the third quarter.

他们超出了预期，这是最大的差异。

They beat expectations, which is the biggest contrast.

家得宝在财报后下跌了约6%。

Home Depot fell by by about 6% after earnings.

劳氏上涨了4%。

Lowe's gained 4%.

这其实只是因为一家超出预期而另一家没有，尽管差距并不像听起来那么大。

And it's really just because one beat expectations and one didn't, although it's not as big of a gap as that makes it sound.

是啊。

Yeah.

如果非要在这两家公司中选个赢家，我想我会选择劳氏。

If I was forced to pick a winner between these two companies, I think I would choose Lowe's.

我认为它的财报比家得宝略好一些。

I think its report was just a tad better than Home Depot.

但实际上，两份财报之间并没有实质性的重大差异。

But really, there's no strong material difference between the two reports.

它们两家公司看到的情况基本一致。

They're both seeing pretty much the same thing.

它们都提到本季度缺乏飓风对业务造成了阻力。

They both mentioned that lack of hurricanes was a headwind to the business in this quarter.

作为一个佛罗里达州人，我对此心怀感激。

And as a Floridian, I'm grateful for that.

同意马特的看法。

Agree with Matt.

这是个好问题。

It's a good problem.

但由于所处的市场环境，这些企业目前很难实现有机增长。

But organic growth is hard to come by for these businesses right now because of the market that they are in.

实际上，两家公司唯一的实质性增长都来自收购。

Really, the only material growth for either company came from acquisitions.

家得宝收购了向工地供应石膏板和钢结构的GMS公司。

So Home Depot acquired GMS, which distributes drywall and steel framing to job sites.

劳氏收购了FBM的一家GMS竞争对手。

Lowe's acquired a GMS competitor in FBM.

你知道，这两家企业形成了双头垄断格局。

You know, both of these businesses as a duopoly.

没错。

Right.

它们竞争异常激烈。

They're fiercely competitive.

所以双方都在争夺这些专业客户。

And so they're both going after these professional customers.

当一方进行收购时，另一方也会跟进类似收购，以确保市场份额不被蚕食。

And when one makes an acquisition, you know, the other one's gonna make a similar acquisition so that nobody takes market share from anybody else.

他们都试图守住现有阵地。

They're gonna try to preserve what they have.

虽然目前内生增长乏力，但几起收购交易确实推动了营收增长。

But not a lot going on for organic growth right now, but a couple of acquisitions boosting the top line.

现在我们要进入我最喜欢的环节——试着从电话会议、财报，或许还有新闻稿中的蛛丝马迹里解读出些门道。

So now we're gonna do my favorite part where we try to read through the tea leaves a little bit of the conference calls, the earnings reports, maybe some little tidbit in the press release.

这两家公司有没有透露出关于整体房地产市场的线索或值得注意的细节？

Was there any clues to you or worthwhile tidbits about the housing market writ large that you saw from either of these companies?

有。

Yeah.

如果你看财报就会发现，这两家公司都在试图服务两类客户群体。

I mean, if you look at the results, both of these companies are trying to service two customer bases.

一类是普通业主，另一类是专业人士。

One would be the homeowner and the other would be the professional.

观察普通业主群体，他们的表现似乎相当不错。

And you look at the homeowners, they seem like they're doing fairly well.

处于良好状态。

They're in a good place.

他们仍在持续消费，而且无论经济环境如何变化，业主们都会继续花钱。

They're still spending, and homeowners will continue to spend regardless of economic conditions.

他们可能不会进行大额消费，但那些小物件，比如更换灯泡之类的东西，还是会继续的。

They may not take on big purchases, but the little things, you know, we're gonna we're gonna replace the light bulbs, that sort of stuff.

房主们目前状况还不错。

Homeowners are doing okay.

专业人士面临的挑战更大些，因为房地产市场正处于停滞状态，马特稍后会详细谈到这一点。

The pros are the ones that are struggling a little bit more because the housing market is stuck in neutral, and and Matt will speak more to that in a minute.

所以当前的现状是，专业市场相当平淡，但房主们的表现依然稳健。

So that's really what's going on right now is that there's not a whole lot going on in the professional market, but homeowners are doing just fine.

是的。

Yeah.

正如约翰所说，劳氏公司CEO马文·埃里森提到，房主们的财务状况良好，但不确定性使他们暂缓了大型项目。

To John's point, Lowe's CEO Marvin Ellison, he said that homeowners are healthy financially, but the the uncertainty is making them pump the brakes on large projects.

家得宝同样表示，房主们在项目支出上持观望态度。

Home Depot, similarly said homeowners are in a, quote, deferral mindset, when it comes to spending on projects.

美国房屋净值目前处于历史最高水平，这背后是有原因的。

There there's a reason that home equity in The United States is at its highest level ever right now.

这主要是因为人们大多处于观望状态。

It's because people are largely on the sidelines.

所以我们真正需要的是房价大幅下跌——虽然我认为这不太可能——或者抵押贷款利率显著下降，后者更有可能但可能需要一段时间。

So we really we need either for home prices to come down significantly, which I don't see as particularly likely, or for mortgage rates to trend significantly lower, which is more likely but could take a while.

而这正是我们需要解冻房地产市场、让家得宝和劳氏恢复任何增长的关键。

And and that's really what we're gonna need to thaw the housing market and to return Home Depot and Lowe's to, any type of growth.

这其实不是需求的问题。

It's not really a question of demand.

人们确实想做装修项目。

People wanna do projects.

人们确实想买房。

People wanna buy homes.

只是目前成本高得让人望而却步。

It's just cost prohibitive right now.

我还想补充一个小细节。

I wanna toss one more kinda tidbit into that too.

正如你所说，房价、房贷利率，还有那个情绪因素。

As you said, housing prices, mortgage rates, but also there's that sentiment thing.

我认为消费者情绪影响很大，尤其是围绕失业这类问题。

And I think there's a lot of consumer sentiment, especially around things like unemployment.

我们正目睹裁员潮。

We're seeing job cuts.

消费者情绪调查数据大幅下滑。

We're seeing, consumer sentiment surveys are way, way down.

即便房贷利率下降，如果人们消费意愿持续低迷，要更进一步就更困难了。

And even with, yeah, lower mortgage rates, if people are in such a, you know, malaise in terms of their spending, it's gonna make it that much harder to take it one step further.

不仅仅是利率需要下降的问题。

It's not just that the the rates have to come lower.

我认为人们需要真正适应这些利率水平，才敢承接大项目。

People, I I I think, are gonna have to actually get comfortable with those rates to really take on that big project.

广告之后，我们将继续财报马拉松——聚焦美国最大零售商。

And coming up after the break, the marathon for earnings continues with America's largest retailer.

通常，我们会在周四节目结束时关注雷达上的股票。

Now normally, we wrap up the Thursday show with stocks on our radar.

但由于本周有太多引人入胜的财报故事，我们要再讨论一个，那就是沃尔玛的财报。

But with so many intriguing earnings stories this week, we're gonna do one more, and that's Walmart's earnings.

本季度沃尔玛再次脱颖而出，因为在本周早些时候塔吉特公布财报并搬出一堆管理层借口后，沃尔玛再次交出亮眼成绩，并上调了本财年的销售预期。

This one stood out again this quarter because after Target reported earlier this week and kinda went into their bag of management excuses, Walmart once again put up great numbers and raised its sales outlook for the fiscal year.

约翰、瑞秋和特拉维斯昨天已经分析了塔吉特的财报，所以我们不会深入讨论塔吉特的具体数据。

Now, John, you, Rachel, and Travis covered Target's earnings yesterday, so we're not gonna get too deep into Target's numbers specifically.

马特，我想请你解读沃尔玛的业绩。

Matt, I want you to give the results of Walmart.

然后，约翰，我想问，看了沃尔玛的业绩后，你对塔吉特的看法是否有所改变？

And then, John, I wanna ask, after seeing Walmart's results, have it changed your opinion on Targets at all?

你说得对。

You're right.

塔吉特经历了一个艰难的季度，在经历了四年我称之为基本持平的收入后，又迎来了一位新CEO。

Target had a rough quarter after four years of what I would call essentially flat revenue and with an incoming CEO.

我并不会说这个季度的糟糕表现是个大意外。

I wouldn't say it was a big surprise that the quarter was rough.

但沃尔玛的业绩确实突显了在不确定时期其业务的韧性。

But Walmart, their earnings really just highlight how resilient the business is during uncertain times.

他们有一群核心客户群体，无论何时都会在沃尔玛购物。

There's a core customer base that's gonna shop at Walmart no matter what.

但在不确定时期，那些通常在高档杂货店等地购物的顾客，往往会转向沃尔玛以节省开支。

But during uncertain times, customers who typically shop at, you know, higher end grocery stores and things like that, they often gravitate toward Walmart to stretch their budgets.

例如在2008年大萧条期间，沃尔玛是标普500指数中表现最佳的股票，这正是他们销售额实际增长的原因。

And during the two thousand eight Great Recession, for example, Walmart was the best performing stock in the S and P 500, and that's why their sales actually went up.

沃尔玛不仅第三季度表现亮眼，还上调了全年销售预期，考虑到第四季度政府停摆带来的干扰（包括部分人群无法领取SNAP福利），这一点尤为引人关注。

So not only was Walmart's Q3 impressive, but they did raise their full year sales guidance, which is especially interesting, given the government shutdown disruptions in the fourth quarter, including SNAP benefits, not coming to some people.

但考虑到我们仍在经历的食品通胀，这一调整确实合乎情理。

But it does make sense, considering the grocery inflation we're still seeing out there.

消费者希望确保自己能获得最划算的交易，而这一点在Publix或Kroger是难以实现的。

Consumers want to make sure they're getting the best possible deals, and you're not going to get that at Publix or Kroger.

你会在沃尔玛找到最划算的商品。

You're going get it at Walmart.

是的。

Yeah.

回到你最初的问题，泰勒，我认为沃尔玛的业绩印证了我的看法——塔吉特这个季度表现不佳。

To your original question, Tyler, I think that Walmart's results confirm my beliefs that Target had a bad quarter.

我认为这对投资者来说是个很好的教训，因为如果你想深入研究，聆听财报电话会议是个不错的起点。

And I think there's a good lesson in here for investors because if you want to go deep in your research as an investor, I think listening to the conference calls is a good place to start.

但更深入的做法是结合竞争对手的财务业绩来评估管理层评论。

But then going even deeper still is evaluating that management commentary in light of the financial results of some of the competitors out there.

如果你听了塔吉特的财报，他们提到的许多问题似乎对竞争对手（尤其是沃尔玛）影响不大。

If you were to listen to Target's earnings report, they mentioned a lot of things that competitors didn't seem as impacted by, specifically Walmart.

塔吉特说消费者变得谨慎了。

So Target said the consumer was cautious.

沃尔玛可没这么说。

Walmart didn't.

塔吉特表示消费者情绪处于三年来的最低点，这确实是事实。

Target said consumer sentiment is at three year lows, and that's actually true.

但沃尔玛并未受此影响。

But Walmart wasn't affected by that.

塔吉特提到消费者担心就业和关税问题，但沃尔玛同样没有提及这些。

So Target mentioned that consumers are worried about jobs and tariffs, but Walmart didn't mention those things either.

我要说明的是，塔吉特确实提到消费者追求性价比。

I will say that Target did mention that consumers want value.

沃尔玛对此表示认同。

Walmart agrees.

我认为这恰恰揭示了真正的问题所在。

And herein lies what I think the real problem is here.

这是个犀利观点。

This is a hot take.

沃尔玛以性价比著称。

Walmart has a reputation for value.

塔吉特在这方面做得不够。

Target doesn't as much.

因此塔吉特某种程度上处于两难境地。

And so Target is kind of in between worlds.

它想要这种高端体验。

It wants this elevated experience.

这是它对外宣传的方式。

That's how it talks about it.

但它同时又希望以低价闻名。

But it also wants it to be known for bargain prices.

我认为它正努力同时兼顾这两点，而沃尔玛在我看来并不试图给消费者高端体验，顾客也坦然接受这点。

And I think it's struggling to be both things at the same time, whereas Walmart isn't trying to give consumers an elevated experience, in my opinion, and its customers just accept it.

那里才是你寻找优惠的地方。

That's where you're going to go for the deals.

我认为Bath and Body Works可能正面临与塔吉特相似的定位困境。

I think that Bath and Body Works might be in the same kind of in between worlds problem that Target has right now.

Bath & Body Works的股票今天大跌。

Bath and body works stock down big today.

它试图提供一种可能更高端的体验，但消费者又希望价格实惠。

It's trying to provide this maybe higher experience, but also its consumers want value prices.

要同时做到这两点很困难。

It's tough to be both things at the same time.

沃尔玛不需要两头兼顾，我认为这体现在其财务业绩上——刚刚交出了比塔吉特更好的季度报告。

Walmart doesn't have to try to be both, and I think it's showing in its financial results just playing out a better quarter than Target.

是啊。

Yeah.

到了这个地步，我不确定塔吉特还能找多少借口，因为这几乎成了季度传统：管理层总说些超出他们控制范围的问题，然后不到48小时沃尔玛就让塔吉特管理层显得很可笑。

At this point, I'm not sure how many more excuses Target can have because this is becoming quite the quarterly tradition where management says something that outside of their control is wrong, and then Walmart kinda makes Target's management look silly less than forty eight hours later.

即使换了CEO——因为沃尔玛这季度也换了新CEO——看看塔吉特会不会说什么'新人刚上任'之类的借口会很有意思。

Even with a change in CEO because we we got a new Walmart CEO, this quarter, and it'll be interesting to see if Target's saying, you know, new guy on the job, thing like that.

我敢打赌沃尔玛即使在过渡期也会再次交出漂亮的成绩单。

And I'm sure that Walmart's just gonna put up great numbers again even through a transition.

我们很想继续，但今天的时间就到这里了。

We'd love to keep going, but that's gonna be all the time we have for today.

马特、约翰，感谢分享你们的见解。

Matt, John, thanks for sharing your thoughts.

快速节目预告：下周四感恩节我们将暂停一期节目。

Quick programming note, we won't be doing a show next Thursday for Thanksgiving.

因此这支轮值的Motley Fool主持人和分析师团队将率先祝愿大家感恩节快乐。

So this crew of rotating Motley Fool hosts and analysts will get to be the first people to wish everyone, a happy Thanksgiving.

一如既往，节目嘉宾可能持有讨论到的股票仓位，Motley Fool可能已发布正式推荐或反对意见。

As always, people on the program may have interest in the stocks they talk about, and The Motley Fool may have formal recommendations for or against.

请不要仅凭节目内容就买卖股票。

So don't buy or sell stocks based solely on what you hear.

所有个人理财内容均遵循Motley Fool编辑标准，未经广告商批准。

All personal finance content follows Motley Fool editorial standards and is not approved by advertisers.

广告为赞助内容，仅提供信息参考。

Advertisements are sponsored content and provided for informational purposes only.

查看我们的完整广告披露声明。

See our full advertising clip disclosure.

请查阅我们的节目笔记。

Please check out our show notes.

感谢我们的制作人Dan Boyd，以及Motley Fool团队的其余成员。

Thanks to our producer, Dan Boyd, and for the rest of the Motley Fool team.

代表Matt、John和我自己，感谢大家的收听，我们很快会再聊。

For Matt, John, and myself, thanks for listening, and we'll chat again soon.