政府如何被对冲基金收买

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大家好，我是Alexei Horowitz Gazi，想请大家今天预购《金钱星球》这本书。书中充满了与播客同样精彩的故事、精美的插画，还有我们即将分享的惊喜内容。我们倾注了大量心血，用最具创意的方式解读经济学，对此深感自豪。无论是想了解金钱与决策基础，还是单纯享受一本有趣的硬核读物，这本书都再合适不过。

Hey. Alexei Horowitz Gazi here to ask you to preorder the Planet Money book today. It's filled with great stories just like you hear on the podcast, gorgeous illustrations, and a few surprises we will share soon. We put a lot of energy into thinking up ways to make a book explaining the economy as creative as possible, and we are so proud of it. It's perfect for anyone wanting a primer on money and decision making or to just enjoy a good, nerdy read.

预购即可获赠免费礼品和一个月《金钱星球Plus》会员。若尚未订阅，请访问planetmoneybook.com。再次感谢。

If you preorder, you get a free gift and a free month of Planet Money Plus. If you don't already subscribe, you can go to planetmoneybook.com. That's planetmoneybook.com. And thank you.

这里是NPR出品的《金钱星球》。

This is planet money from NPR.

我国政府的财政收入（主要来自税收）与国防、医保、基建等支出之间存在根本性失衡。

There is a basic mismatch between how much our government takes in in revenue, mostly in taxes, and what it spends on defense and Medicare and roads and that sort of thing.

我们能够维持这种结构性失衡的原因在于可以借贷填补差额。我们在国际债券市场上筹集所需资金——这里有资金的个人和机构将钱借给需要资金的实体，以换取定期利息支付。

And the reason we can sustain that structural mismatch is because we can borrow the difference. We go get the money we need in the big international bond market where people and institutions with money lend it out to people and institutions who want money in exchange for periodic interest payments.

美国政府承诺偿还借款本金加利息的凭证就是国债，本质是借据。全球范围内有许多机构愿意借钱给美国政府，部分原因在于这被视为极其安全的投资。

The US government's promise to pay back what it borrows plus interest, that is a treasury. It's an IOU. And all over the world, there are people institutions who want to loan the US government money in part because it is perceived to be such a safe bet.

美国很富有，而且基本上总能偿还债务。因此，国债被视为最安全的投资品之一，非常受欢迎。市场上总有人在购买它们。

The US is rich, and it's basically always paid its debts. So treasuries are seen as one of the safest things you can buy. So they're pretty popular. People are always in the market buying them.

世界上其他所有债务管理者都希望拥有像我们这样的政府债务市场。

Every other debt manager in the world wishes they had a government debt market like ours.

这是达利普·辛格。有几年时间，他在美国财政部负责向全球各地的人出售这些债务凭证。

That is Dalip Singh. For a few years, he was the one selling these IOUs to people all over the world at the US treasury.

这招来很多嫉妒，因为国债市场是全球最深、流动性最强的市场。但这也是一把双刃剑——意味着我们背负着巨额债务。现在我们在利息支出上的花费

There's a lot of envy, you know, because the treasury market, it is the deepest, most liquid market in the world. And now, this is a double edged sword. That also just means we have a lot of debt. We're now spending more on the interest costs

已经超过了国防开支。

Than we do on defense.

超过了国防预算。我们已堆积起债务大山，这使我们的财政状况面临风险。

Than we are on the national defense. We've amassed a mountain of debt, and that puts our fiscal finances at risk.

财政风险源于债务由他人持有。我们通常无法控制持有者，某种程度上受制于他们的意愿。比如我们无法自主决定利息支付金额，由他们决定。如果他们突然不再青睐我们并抛售所有国债，我们将陷入大麻烦。

Puts our fiscal finances at risk because other people hold our debt. We don't generally control who, and we're kind of subject to their whims. Like, for example, we don't get to pick how much we pay in interest. They decide. And if they all suddenly stop liking us and sold all the treasuries they had, well, we would have a big problem.

这是DALIP以及许多其他经济学家、监管者、政策制定者和学者们一直在讨论的问题。这是一场全面的辩论。近年来，一些不太可预测的实体正在购买越来越多的我们信赖的借据——国债，而这些人就是对冲基金，这让部分人士深感忧虑。

And this is something that DALIP and a lot of other economists and regulators and policymakers and academics, they have all been talking about this. It's a whole debate. Some people are pretty worried because in recent years, someone less predictable has been buying up more and more of our trusted IOUs, our treasuries, and that someone is hedge funds.

对冲基金。那些监管宽松、敢于冒险的金融公司，只为足够富裕、能承受损失的人管理资金。如今，对冲基金正将他们特有的行事风格带入国债市场。

Hedge funds. Those loosely regulated risk taking financial companies which only invest money on behalf of people rich enough to lose the money. Hedge funds are bringing their own hedge fundy attitudes to the treasury table.

如果这个新玩家决定冒险并制造大麻烦，我们美国纳税人很可能最终要以某种方式为此买单。

If this new player decides to take reckless risks and make a big mess, we, the taxpayers of The United States, we are probably gonna end up paying for it one way or another.

我认为，如果在这种时刻需要普通民众救助华尔街，那肯定出了问题。

I think there is something wrong if Main Street's bailing out Wall Street in those moments.

大家好，欢迎来到《金钱星球》节目，我是玛丽·柴尔兹。

Hello, and welcome to Planet Money. I'm Mary Childs.

我是肯尼·马龙。美国政府债务市场是全球最重要的市场，整个国际金融体系都依赖于这个市场的安全与稳定。那么，当越来越多的国债流入行事风格独特的对冲基金手中时，我们是否应该担忧？

And I'm Kenny Malone. The market for US government debt is the most important one in the whole world. All of global finance relies on the safety and stability of this one market. So should we worry that more and more of it is going to the hedge funds with their hedge fund y ways?

今天的节目中，我们将探寻联邦政府的借据——备受尊敬的美国国债——如何流入对冲基金之手。我们还将见到一位我原以为永远不会公开露面的新玩家。一位对冲基金人士来到NPR演播室，解释他的操作逻辑和动机。

Today on the show, we will go see how an IOU from the federal government, the venerable US Treasury, is now making its way into the hands of hedge funds. And we will meet one of these new players who I thought would never ever talk on the record. A hedge fund guy comes to the NPR studio to explain what he's doing and why.

《I Want It That Way》是后街男孩的热门歌曲，但它是否也是一堂隐秘的经济学课程？如果你观看音乐视频，真的可以看到比较优势概念的生动诠释。好了，在我们最新的番外篇中，我们竞相挑选1999年最具《星球货币》气息的歌曲、电影等作品。这是我们有史以来第一次《星球货币》流行文化选秀，你可以通过注册NPR+（+npr.org）收听并支持我们的工作。

I want it that way was a Backstreet Boys banger, but was it also a secret economics lesson? If you watch the music video, you can really see an illustration of the concept of comparative advantage. Alright. In our most recent bonus episode, we compete to see who can pick the most planet money song, movie, and more from 1999. It's our first ever Planet Money pop culture draft, and you can hear it and support our work by signing up for NPR Plus at +.npr.0rg.

好的。今天我们将带您了解，为何如此多的政府欠条（IOU）最终落入对冲基金之手，以及人们为何对此感到担忧。

Okay. So today, we're gonna walk you through how so many of the IOUs, our government rights, are now ending up in the hands of hedge funds and why that might be something people are worried about.

但为了理解这段可能疯狂而冒险的旅程，我们要从一个极其庄重的地方开始——美国财政部，联邦政府在这里开具所有欠条。这是达利普·辛格的工作。他几乎每天身着西装领带，在美国财政部销售新国债。

But to help understand this potentially wild and risky journey, we are starting out in a very somber place, the US treasury, where the federal government writes out all those IOUs. That was Daliep Singh's job. He sold new treasuries at the US treasury in a suit and tie almost every day.

周末除外，除非我来办公室加班。

Not on the weekends unless I came to the office.

好吧，所以你不会穿着西装领带和孩子们踢足球。这很安全。

Okay. So you're not playing football with your kids in a suit and tie. That's safe.

通常不会。是的，那会限制我的行动。

Usually not. Yeah. That restrains me.

巨大的勒颈风险。我们可不想那样。财政部是个高度注重安全的机构，他们竭尽全力保持绝对安全和乏味。因为他们越安全乏味，需要支付的利息就越少。

Big strangulation hazard. We don't want that. The treasury is a big safety first operation. They are laser focused on being as safe and boring as possible. Because the more safe and boring they are, the less they will have to pay in interest.

这就是他们的目标，尽可能以最低成本借款，从而在贷款期限内，美国纳税人无需支付巨额利息。

And that is their goal, to borrow as cheaply as possible so that over the life of the loan, The US taxpayer doesn't have to pay a ton of interest.

为了获得这些低利率，美国财政部必须让潜在投资者感到安心、平静并信任我们。

To get those low interest rates, the US treasury has to make potential investors feel happy and calm and trust us.

因此这里是个极其庄重严肃的场所，充斥着穿深蓝和灰色西装的人——因为你们的存在，就是要让投资者获得与上次完全相同的体验。

That's why this is just a very it's a sober, serious place filled with people wearing dark blue and gray suits because, you're there to simply give investors an experience just like the one they had last time.

传统上这些投资者包括养老基金、保险公司、富豪、主权财富基金、其他国家的央行，还有像你我这样的个人投资者，玛丽。

Now those investors are traditionally pension funds and insurance companies and rich people and sovereign wealth funds and central banks of other nations and also individual investors like me and you, Mary.

完全正确。财政部通过拍卖出售债务。为了保持可信度，这些拍卖必须平稳运作，不容任何意外。

Absolutely. The treasury sells debt at auctions. And to be trustworthy, they need those auctions to operate smoothly. No surprises.

所以当杜利普负责这项工作时，他会抵达财政部大楼，前往那个一切交易发生的狭小特殊房间。

So back when this was his job, Dulip would arrive at the Treasury Department Building and make his way to the one tiny special room where everything happens.

那里的地毯是什么样子的？

What are the carpets like?

我记得它们非常有七十年代风格，橙棕色调的。好吧，确实需要升级一下了。

I remember them being very nineteen seventies esque, sort of orange and brown Okay. And in need of an upgrade.

好的。

Okay.

所以这装饰实在算不上鼓舞人心。

So it's it's it's not it's not the most uplifting decor.

我们这里不以美学为标准。

We're not indexing for aesthetics here.

没错。这里的设计初衷不是激发创意，而是培养安静、自律的执行力。

No. It's not meant to foster creativity. It's meant to foster quiet, disciplined execution.

这个房间没有特殊钥匙，但只有特定授权人员才能进入。杜利普说拍卖时最多15人，这些人都是共事多年的老同事，从不会有陌生人出现。

There's no special key to this room, but there are only so many people who are authorized to be there. During an auction, Dulip said there would be, like, 15 people max. And all those people know each other from working together forever. There were never any strangers.

但国债拍卖期间那个房间是绝对安静的。

But that room is silent during a treasury auction.

安静得连针掉在地上都能听见。

You can hear a pin drop.

你们在办公室会做什么特别的事情来纪念拍卖日吗？

Do you do anything special in the office to commemorate its auction day?

不会。我是说，你看。每周都有很多拍卖，通常在周二、周三和周四。我们债务如此之多，拍卖如此频繁，每个拍卖日都和其他日子没什么两样。

No. I mean, look. There's so many there are auctions every single week, usually on Tuesdays, Wednesdays, and Thursdays. And so, we have so much debt and so many auctions that every auction day is like any other day.

因为我们现在借的钱比以前多得多。

Because we now borrow so much more than we used to.

流程是这样的：一周开始时会有公告。美国财政部本周将借款1000亿美元。然后向市场提出的问题是，谁愿意借钱给美国政府，以及你需要多少利息回报。

Here's how it works. So the week will start with an announcement. The US treasury is going to borrow a $100,000,000,000 this week. And so the question that's put to the market is who wants to lend the US government money and how much interest do you need to get paid.

他们会询问潜在贷款方：你需要多少利息才愿意借钱给美国政府？比如，三个月期、五年期或十年期的贷款，你需要多少利息回报？每个人写下自己的答案。

They ask potential lenders how much would you need to get paid to want to lend to the US government. So, like, how much would you need in interest payments to lend to the US government for three months, for five years, or for ten years? They all write down their answers.

每次拍卖结束前30到60分钟，他们会各自提交投标。

Thirty to sixty minutes before each auction closes, they each submit a bid.

他们出价多少想买，又想获得多少利息回报。过去是用铅笔记录的。现在他们在下午1点前，把出价输入电脑上的一个小方框里。

A bid for how much they wanna buy and how much interest they wanna get paid. This used to be done with pencils. Now they type their bid into a little box on a computer all by 1PM.

好的。现在我们要顺着这些神奇管道的另一端，来到财政部静默室里那些在下午1点前往电脑小方框输入信息的人当中，其中某位就在一家银行——投资银行，华尔街的银行。

So okay. Now we will go to the other end of the magical pipes in the silent room of the treasury to one of the people typing in that little box on a computer by 1PM, and that someone is at a bank, an investment bank, a Wall Street bank.

这次是高盛集团。安舒尔·塞加尔就在这里工作。值得一提的是，他穿了件Polo衫。

In this case, Goldman Sachs. That is where Anshul Segal works. He is wearing, for what it's worth, a polo shirt.

这是件T恤。这算Polo T恤吗？

It's a T shirt. Is this a polo T shirt?

它有领子。

It's got a collar.

是有领子。因为我要接受采访才穿的。

It's got a collar. That's because I was going to be interviewed.

高盛最近有什么动向？

What is happening at Goldman Sachs these days?

我们得重新开始了。

We're gonna have to restart.

你穿着你平时常穿的AC/DC乐队T恤吗？

You're wearing it you're typically wearing your ACDC T shirt?

基本上是吧。或者我的平克·弗洛伊德乐队T恤。

Essentially. Or my Pink Floyd T shirt.

所以这肯定比美国财政部的正式着装要求低了一个档次，但仍然属于正式结构的一部分。因为高盛实际上是这个流程中非常官方的一环。它是25家被称为一级交易商的银行之一，这些银行与美国政府达成了特殊协议，因为政府希望确保总能获得这些贷款。只要银行履行协议义务，比如始终参与国债拍卖并提交诚信报价，就能获得特殊优待。

So definitely a step down from the formality of the US treasury, but still very much part of the formal structure. Because Goldman Sachs is actually a very official part of this process. It's one of 25 banks, they're called primary dealers, that have made a special deal with the US government because the government wants to make sure it can always get these loans. So the banks get special perks as long as they uphold their end of the deal, like to always bid at treasury auctions. Real good faith bids.

而安舒尔的工作之一就是提交这份报价，决定高盛想借给政府多少钱以及以什么利率。比如说，如果十年后才能收回款项，他们会要求获得4.1%的固定利息支付。如果贷款期限更长，他们会在合理范围内要求更高回报。

And it is part of Anshul's job to submit that bid to decide how much Goldman wants to loan the government and at what interest rate. Like, if they're not gonna get paid back for ten years, they want, say, 4.1% in regular interest payments. If the loan's for longer, they're gonna demand to get paid more within reason.

尽管拍卖过程本身非常稳定且枯燥，但安舒尔表示，由于拍卖结果可能揭示全球经济的动向，实际拍卖时刻仍然让人神经紧绷。

And even though the auctions themselves are so stable and boring, Anshul says that the actual moment of the auction is still nerve wracking because of what the auction can reveal about the world.

下午1点，系统关闭。报价提交后，需要30到120秒才能返回拍卖结果。在那两分钟里，所有人都安静地坐在工位上等待拍卖结果揭晓。

1PM, the system closes. So your bids are submitted, it takes them somewhere between thirty and a hundred and twenty seconds to come back with the results of the auction. So for those two minutes, everyone's sitting quietly on their desk waiting to see where the auction comes out.

安舒尔说这是一次清算事件。就像你一直身处黑暗中，突然有一瞬间灯光亮起，你能看见所有人。你能看到那一刻他们对未来的感受，是勇敢还是恐惧。

Anshul says this is a clearing event. Like, you've been in the dark, and for one quick minute, the lights come on, and you can see everybody else. You can see how they feel about the future at that moment, if they feel brave or scared.

所以在那120秒里，你会想，我接下来的一天/一周会是什么样子？

So in those one hundred and twenty seconds, you're just like, what's the rest of my day slash week gonna look like?

没错。

That's right.

我会度过轻松的一周，还是生活即将天翻地覆？

Am I gonna have an easy week, or is this about to get turned upside down?

正是如此。因为拍卖作为清算事件，本质上为你提供了市场全景图，显示人们是否规避风险。

That's right. The auction, because it's a clearing event, essentially gives you a very good picture of the market landscape, whether people are risk averse or not.

于是在下午1点，所有投标截止。财政部梳理所有数据，大约在1:02分公布拍卖结果——中标利率。我们可爱的小国债就这样诞生了。很快，这些新国债将离开它们的诞生地财政部，飞向以中标利率或更低利率投标的所有人手中，包括安舒尔。

So at 1PM, all the bids are in. The treasury sorts through all the numbers, and by about 01:02PM, they publish the auction results, the winning interest rate. Our darling little treasury bonds have hatched. Soon, tons of these new little treasuries will leave their birthplace, the treasury, and fly to their first homes to everyone who bid at or below that winning interest rate, including Anshul.

而安舒尔在这里的角色更像是促进者、传导者。他的存在是为了在国债跃出巢穴时接住它，并在其进入世界时给予助力，因为他会转身将其转售给其他人。

And Anshul's role here is kind of just as facilitator, as conduit. He's there to catch the treasury as it leaps from the nest and give it a little boost as it goes out into the world because he's gonna turn around and sell it to someone else.

关于国债，有一点很重要需要理解，有些人购买国债是为了长期持有。没错。因为它们能赚取利息，而且很安全。也有人购买国债是为了像普通股票和债券一样进行交易。

And something important to understand about treasuries, some people buy them to hold on to them forever. Yes. Because they earn interest, then they're safe. Some people buy them to trade them like normal stocks and bonds.

但此外，人们还会将国债用作抵押品。如果有人想在金融市场进行高风险押注，比如押注某公司股票明天会暴跌至零，任何负责任的银行或经纪商都不会接受这种赌注，除非交易者提供足够的抵押品。这时国债就派上用场了。

But, also, people use treasuries as collateral. If someone wants to make some risky bet in financial markets, like they wanna bet a lot of money on the stock of a company plummeting to zero tomorrow, any responsible bank or broker is not gonna sign on to that bet unless the trader hands over enough collateral. That's where treasuries come in.

是的。交易者可以说，别担心，经纪人。如果情况不妙，我有这些国债可以作为抵押品。如果我的交易彻底失败，欠你的钱超出我的偿还能力，你可以卖掉这些国债换取现金。

Yeah. The trader can say, don't worry, broker. If this goes awry, I have all these treasuries that you can hold on to as collateral. If my trade goes terribly south and I owe you more than I can pay, you can sell these for cash.

国债之所以是优质抵押品，原因在于其数量庞大且交易频繁。因此，如果你想买卖国债，甚至一次性大量交易，都能快速且低成本地完成。这就是人们所说的国债市场具有深度和流动性的含义。

And the reason treasuries are so good as collateral is because there are so many of them and because people are buying and selling them all the time. So if you wanna buy and sell them, even a lot of them at once, you can do it fast and pretty cheap. That's what people mean when they say that the treasury market is deep and liquid.

这是全球最大的抵押品市场，而我们所有人都是这个系统中的齿轮，本质上是在为这个市场提供流动性。

It is the largest collateral market in the world, and and all of us are cogs in that wheel trying to basically provide liquidity in this market.

因为要让某物发挥抵押品作用，它必须像现金一样可靠。而国债之所以几乎等同于现金，就在于其交易便捷性。交易国债的人越多，交易就越容易进行，这反过来增强了人们的信心，促使更多交易发生——形成良性循环。

Because in order for something to work as collateral, it needs to be as good as cash. And what makes treasuries basically as good as cash is how easy it is to trade them. And the more people trade treasuries, the easier it is to trade them, which gives them more confidence, so they trade them more. A virtuous circle.

所以舒尔在高盛的工作目标，本质上和财政部DALIP的目标一致，就是保持稳定无波动的状态。

So on Schul's job at Goldman Sachs, he does have basically the same goals as DALIP at the treasury, which is be boring.

在拍卖日当天，你如何判断自己是否表现良好？

How do you know on an auction day if you did a good job?

作为一级交易商，如果拍卖结果与市场预期基本吻合，就说明你做得不错。

As a primary dealer, you did a good job if the auction came right around where the market expected it to come.

明白了。没有意外情况。

Okay. No surprises.

没有意外就是好日子。

No surprises is a good day.

随后到了所谓的结算日，真正的魔法转账就发生了。安舒尔的款项汇给美国政府，而新国债则记入安舒尔的账户。

Later on what's called settlement day, the magical transfer actually happens. Anshul's wire goes through to the US government, and the new treasury lands in Anshul's account.

等到那时，安舒尔很可能已经把它转卖出去了。卖给谁？这正是近年来不断变化的部分。

By the time that happens, Anshul will have most likely sold it already. To whom? Well, that's the thing that's been changing.

我们这些小小的国债宝贝们，即将从受政府认可、安全规范的银行体系，跃入那个庞大、疯狂、监管宽松、热爱风险的世界。

Our little baby treasuries are about to make a big huge leap from the somewhat government sanctioned safety of our safe and regulated banks into the big, crazy, way less regulated, risk loving world.

我们的下一站，一家对冲基金。

Our next stop, a hedge fund.

所以我们的小宝贝国债诞生在财政部一间铺着上世纪七十年代地毯的昏暗小屋里，然后被卖给了一家大型银行——主要交易商，它们负责帮助我们的国债安全流通。

So our little baby treasuries were born in a somber little room with nineteen seventies carpeting at the treasury, and then they were sold to a big bank, a primary dealer, working to help nudge our little treasury safely along.

这个环节是政府与私营部门奇特的交汇点，双方有意相互交织，在互利、平淡且稳定的市场中合作。

And that part of the process, that is a weird intersection of government and private sector where governments and banks are working together intentionally intertwined in a mutually beneficial, boring, stable market.

这些谨慎的国债经手人必须遵守大量法规，尤其是过去十五年间。因为2008年金融危机后，我们认为银行承担了过大风险。它们搞垮了全球经济，我们可不喜欢这样。于是我们限制了它们的活动范围、风险承担额度及购买能力。

So those careful handlers of treasuries, they have to follow a lot of rules and regulations, even more in the past fifteen years or so. Because after the financial crisis of two thousand eight, we decided that banks had taken risks that were too big. They tanked the global economy, and we did not like that. So we restricted their activities, how much risk they can take, how much stuff they can buy.

若你想要安全的银行体系，这倒是好事。银行确实承担着重要社会职能，保管民众储蓄存款、向企业发放贷款。我们希望这些业务安全，所以让银行变得更安全了。

Which is good if you want safe banks. Banks do serve societally important functions, holding people's savings and deposits, making loans to businesses. We want those safe, so we made banks safer.

但市场由人组成，人们总在寻找赚钱机会。当你把风险从一个领域挤出去，它总会在别处冒头——这就引出了大量购买国债的对冲基金。根据你咨询的对象不同，它们可能威胁着整个系统的稳定，也可能在帮助政府借更多钱，或者两者兼有。

But markets are made up of people, people looking for opportunities to make money. So when you squish risk out of one area, it always shows up somewhere else, which brings us to hedge funds who have started buying a lot of treasuries. And depending on who you talk to are maybe threatening to destabilize the whole system, or they're maybe helping the government to borrow even more money or both.

接下来有请对冲基金人士为我们解释——这倒毫不意外。

Here to explain, a guy from a hedge fund, of course.

我是菲尔·普林斯，现任松河资本管理公司的合伙人兼财政部主管。

My name is Phil Prince. My job title is, partner and head of treasury at Pine River Capital Management.

菲尔在对冲基金界显得与众不同。首先，对冲基金通常更倾向于休闲随意的氛围，但菲尔并非如此。

Phil is somewhat anomalous in the hedge fund world. For starters, hedge funds generally have more of a a T shirt kind of vibe, but not Phil.

今天我穿着蓝色纽扣衬衫、灰色羊毛长裤和商务皮鞋来到这里。

I am here today in my, you know, blue button down shirt and my gray wool slacks and my business shoes.

天啊，我们通话时气温接近酷暑。菲尔的另一特别之处在于，他此刻正坐在NPR演播室与我对话。我联系了许多对冲基金询问他们对国债的新兴趣，但没人愿意公开表态。

Oh my god. It was approximately a billion degrees when we spoke. Phil is also anomalous in the fact that he is in the NPR studio talking to me right now. I called a lot of hedge funds to ask them about their new interest in treasuries. None of them would talk to me on the record.

但菲尔愿意。

Phil would.

而菲尔发现这次国债交易机会的方式，据他所说，正是通过他惯常的做法——识别市场中的需求缺口。

And the way Phil found his way to this treasury trade he's gonna tell us about, he says, is by doing what he always does, identifying people's needs in the market.

本质上就是有人付费请你协助完成他们必须处理的事项。

It's someone paying you to help them do something that they need to get done.

菲尔所做的交易被称为国债基差交易。这种交易之所以变得如此庞大，众多对冲基金纷纷参与，是因为当前市场上国债数量极其庞大。美国政府正以前所未有的规模借款。目前全球市场上有价值29万亿美元的国债，而2020年初仅为17万亿美元。

The trade Phil does is called the treasury basis trade. And the reason this trade has become so big with so many hedge funds doing it is because of the enormous amount of treasuries out there now. The fact that the US government is borrowing more money than ever. There is now $29,000,000,000,000 worth of treasuries in the global market, up from 17,000,000,000,000 at the start of 2020.

美国政府需要向像高盛的安舒尔这样的人出售国债，我们之前见过他。然后安舒尔需要为他的客户找到这些国债的归宿。所以菲尔购买国债，并用这些国债来解决其他人的问题。第一个例子就是货币市场基金。

The US government needs to sell treasuries to people like Anshul at Goldman, who we met earlier. And then Anshul needs to find them a home with his clients. So Phil buys treasuries, and he uses those treasuries to solve someone else's problem. Example one, money market funds.

你的钱放在货币市场基金里吗？

Got your money in a money market fund?

很可能。是的。我有。我有。我，嗯。

Probably. Yes. I do. I do. I yeah.

我有。

I do.

那是个放钱的好地方。

It's a good place for money.

谢谢。

Thank you.

货币市场是你存放可能随时需要动用的资金的地方。因此，货币市场基金持有你的现金，而它们面临的问题是既要投资这些现金获取微薄利息，又只能进行短期投资，因为客户可能随时要求赎回。它们持有的资产必须具有相当短的期限。

Money markets are where you store money that you might need right away. So money market funds have cash from you, and then their problem is that they wanna invest that cash and make a little interest, but only for a short time because their clients might demand it back. The stuff that they hold has to have a pretty short shelf life.

所以菲尔与货币市场基金做这种一日交易。他隔夜借入它们的现金，然后把国债作为抵押品借给它们。他就这样日复一日地操作——借入现金、购买国债、再将国债作为抵押品借出。

So Phil does these one day deals with money market funds. He borrows their cash overnight, and then he lends them his treasuries as collateral. And he just does this day after day, borrowing cash, buying treasuries, lending them out as collateral.

哈利路亚。问题解决了。

Hallelujah. Solve the problem.

等等。货币市场基金持有现金，却为了借入你的国债而把钱给你？是的。那些国债是你用货币市场基金的钱购买并融资的？

Wait. Wait. The money market fund has cash and is giving it to you in order to borrow your treasuries? Yes. That you bought, and you're funding the treasuries with the money market fund money?

没错。这太荒谬了。

Yes. That's so silly.

为什么？为什么

Why? Why

它们不直接购买国债呢？

can't they just buy treasuries?

因为我们讨论的是七年期国债这类产品。

Because we're talking about, like, seven year treasuries.

他们属于货币市场基金，只考虑明天的事。

They're a money market fund. They only think about tomorrow.

没错。

Right.

好的。

Okay.

他们需要收回资金，明天就必须拿回钱。而且

They need they need this back. They need their money back tomorrow. And

此外还有菲尔和他同行们操作的国债基差交易的另一面，这关系到大型传统指数基金和养老基金的需求。

then there's a whole other side of this treasury basis trade that Phil and his peers are doing, and it has to do with the needs of big old index funds and retirement funds.

这类基金大多聚焦债券市场，需要持有国债，因为国债在市场中占比越来越大。这些基金本应保持与市场结构相似，但基金经理同时也追求出色表现。

A lot of those funds focus on the bond market, and they need treasuries because treasuries are a bigger and bigger part of the market. And those funds are supposed to look similar to what's out there. But the managers of those funds also want to perform well.

想想你的先锋共同基金。他们为投资者购买资产，并通过比较市场表现来衡量业绩，比如‘市场表现如此’，而我的表现略胜一筹。

You think of your, you know, Vanguard mutual fund. They buy things for their investors, And they measure how well they've done by saying the market, quote, unquote, did this, and I did a little better.

所以他们的困境在于，国债相比风险更高的资产收益较低，无法帮你超越同行。这些基金经理希望不必在乏味的国债上投入过多资金。

So their problem is treasuries are relatively unprofitable compared to stuff that's riskier. They don't help you beat your peers. So these fund managers wish they didn't have to spend so much money on boring old treasuries.

这时菲尔和其他对冲基金经理登场了。他们的推销话术是这样的。

Enter Phil and the other hedge fund managers. Here is their pitch.

你可以选择购买期货。国债期货。

What you can do is buy futures. Treasury futures.

当你买入国债期货时，你承诺在未来以特定价格购买国债。明白了吗？期货。

When you buy a treasury future, you are promising to buy a treasury at a certain price in the future. Do you get it? Future.

明白你明白了。是的。

Do you get I get it. Yes.

现在明白了。

Now get it.

前期成本会更低，而且他们仍然可以满足基本持有国债的要求。只不过这是明天的国债，而非今天的。

The upfront cost is gonna be lower, and they can still check the box of basically having treasury bonds. It's just that it's tomorrow's treasury bonds, not today's.

未来会变成债券，你知道的，在不久的将来的某个日期。它就像一颗蛋。

The future will become a bond, you know, at some date in the very near future. It's an egg.

我喜欢这个比喻。我从没想过未来就像一颗即将孵化的蛋。是啊，太可爱了。你觉得期货像蛋吗？

I love that. I had never thought of a future as, a little egg about to hatch. Yeah. That's so cute. Do you think of futures as eggs?

我认为期货是远期价格的远期债券。

I think of futures as forward price forward bonds.

所以好吧。按照菲尔的看法，他通过出售国债期货来满足所有需要勾选国债选项的基金需求。

So Okay. The way Phil sees it, he is meeting the needs of all those funds that need to check the treasury box by selling them treasury futures.

所以菲尔对国债采取的多管齐下的策略——购买国债、按日贷出、出售它们的未来形态（它们的蛋），只有当你不受那些规则和约束限制时才能做到这些。

So that multipronged set of things Phil is doing with treasuries, buying them, loaning them out on a nightly basis, selling their future selves, their eggs, You can only do this if you are not subject to all those rules and constraints.

如果你想从中赚钱，就必须高效运作。你必须能够以最低成本完成，否则别人会用更低的价格来做，你就完全无法参与了。

And if you're going to make money at that, you have to be efficient at it. You have to be able to do it at the minimum cost, or someone else will do it cheaper, and you won't be able to do it at all.

为了完成这一切并确保获得丰厚利润，菲尔每天都在从货币市场基金大量借钱，以便尽可能扩大这笔交易的规模。

To get all this done and to make sure he makes a good profit, Phil has borrowed money, is borrowing money, a lot of money from the money market funds basically every day so that he can do this trade as big as possible.

其他所有进行国债基差交易的对冲基金也都借入巨资来最大化交易规模。目前约有8000亿美元资金被套在这类交易中——包括菲尔的资金、借款、竞争对手的资金及其借款。

And all these other hedge funds who are also doing this treasury basis trade, they all also borrowed money to do this trade as big as possible. A lot of money. There's something like $800,000,000,000 currently tied up in this trade. Phil's money, the money he borrowed, his competitor's money, and their borrowed money, all of that.

这正是令人担忧的部分。监管机构、其他交易员、学者和记者都在焦虑：如果稳定保守的国债市场突然崩盘会怎样？价格剧烈波动时将发生什么？菲尔也考虑过这个问题。

And this is the part that becomes worrying. This is what regulators, other traders, academics, journalists, this is what they're fretting about. What if something suddenly goes terribly wrong in the stable, staid treasury market? If prices start jumping all around, what would happen? Phil has thought about this too.

这种情况下，参与多线基差交易的各方都会争相收回资金或国债。但问题是这些国债往往被反复抵押——当菲尔索要国债时，接手方可能已将其转押给第三方

In this scenario, yeah, everybody in every prong of these multipronged basis trades will most likely be scrambling to get their money back or their treasuries back. But often the same treasuries get pledged as collateral over and over. So if Phil wants his treasuries and he calls up the person he pledged them to, who pledged them to someone else

我无法收回国债，因为根本不知道它们流转到何处。各种对冲关系被打散成碎片，市场出现无序买卖，资金链陷入混乱的拉锯战。

I can't get them because who I don't know where they went. And then this versus that and the the other versus the other. Each one of those bases has been taken apart into its pieces, and there's disorderly buying and selling, and everything is washing back and forth.

无序交易导致价格剧烈波动。若国债价格暴跌，全球金融体系中作为抵押品的国债将突然贬值，无法兑现承诺价值。

Disorderly buying and selling means prices get jumpy. If prices drop suddenly, all those treasuries that are being used as collateral all across the financial system, all across the world, they are suddenly worth less. They are not worth what people promised.

而菲尔与所有做出这些承诺的机构都深度绑定。不过菲尔表示，他已精确计算出在最糟糕情况下的潜在损失，并为此类场景做好准备——他说自己始终保持充足现金以抵御金融风暴。

And Phil is all tangled up with all of those people making all of those promises. Now Phil does say that he has calculated very carefully how much he would stand to lose on a bad day where everything goes haywire. And he prepares for these scenarios. He says he keeps enough cash sitting around that he can weather a financial storm.

当然，他无法确定所有从事这种交易的同行以及与他们交易的众多人士的情况。他们为应对糟糕的日子预留了多少现金？他们的财务计算是否准确？

He, of course, cannot be sure about all of his peers who are also doing this trade and all of the many people trading with them. How much cash have they set aside for bad days? Have they done their math well?

我们确实目睹了当风险承担者未对意外做好准备时会发生什么。这发生在2020年3月，如果你不记得我们即将谈论的事情，那是可以理解的，因为那是疫情的开始。我们所有人都经历了很多。但在那一刻，市场下跌，人人恐慌，他们想要现金，实实在在的现金。而这种国债基差交易彻底崩溃了。

And we did get to see what happens when things go wrong if the risk takers are not prepared for surprises. This happened back in March 2020, and you're forgiven if you don't remember this thing that we're about to talk about because this was the beginning of the pandemic. Lots going on for all of us. But in that moment, markets were falling, and everyone was panicking, and they wanted cash, cold hard cash. And this treasury basis trade totally blew up.

那感觉如何？

How did that feel?

是的，这很痛苦。一方面，你因为亏损而心痛；另一方面，哇，多么好的机会啊。

Yeah. This is painful. On one hand, it hurts because you're losing money. On the other hand, wow. What an opportunity.

你只需要确保手头有足够的现金，这样你就不会破产，可以挽回损失并赚取更多。

You just have to have you you have to have enough cash on hand that you don't go bankrupt so that you can make back the money that you lost and make more.

你做到了吗？

Did you?

恐怕我无权透露，因为SEC的规定限制了我

I'm afraid I'm not at liberty to say because the SEC rules around

哦，抱歉。刚才在谈论犯罪。但你还在场，说明你没破产。某种意义上，那些对冲基金之所以没破产，是因为美联储大规模介入市场，通过购买资产来稳定整个系统——对冲基金、交易商、基金经理，所有人都得到了救助。

Oh, sorry. Talking about do crimes. But you're still here, which means you didn't go bankrupt. Yes. In a way, those hedge funds weren't allowed to go bankrupt because they and everybody else got a huge boost from the Federal Reserve, which jumped into the market and started buying to stabilize the whole system, hedge funds, dealers, fund managers, everybody.

你可能记得我们之前采访过的达利普·辛格，那位穿深蓝色西装的前财政部官员。当时他就在纽约联储负责这些资产购买操作。

You may remember Dalip Singh, who we talked to earlier, formerly of the treasury in his dark blue suit. He was actually at the New York Fed during this time doing the buying.

没错。我当时身处一线，仅在2020年3-4月就购买了近3万亿美元的国债。要知道，为了拯救无数普通人的生计，有时候不得不让那些此刻不太值得救助的群体也搭上便车。

Yes. I mean, I was on the front lines, and we bought close to $3,000,000,000,000 worth of treasuries in March and April 2020 alone. You know, to to save many innocent people, their livelihoods, you sometimes have to benefit those who are kinda less deserving of being helped in that moment.

执行这些操作时，你是什么感受？

When you did this, how did that feel?

势在必行。否则将导致成千上万不必要的破产，我们可能再次面临失业率居高不下的'失落的十年'。这种心理创伤会引发严重的政治和地缘政治后果。在这种时刻，没有完美的选择，只能两害相权取其轻。

Necessary. Because otherwise, there would have been thousands, tens of thousands of needless bankruptcies, and we would have had once again another lost decade of unemployment. And that could have had enormous scarring effects psychologically, with with real political and geopolitical consequences. So it's you know, there are no good choices in those moments. That's the least worst option.

美国政府确实受益于对冲基金购买国债。他们的参与意味着我们能借到更多资金。

The US government does benefit from hedge funds buying treasuries. Their participation means we can borrow more.

但另一方面，对冲基金是独立运作体。相比我们之前讨论的主要交易商——比如昂舒尔所在的高盛这类大银行，它们受监管更少。对冲基金与政府没有特殊关系，也不承担任何义务。

But on the other hand, hedge funds are independent actors. They are less regulated than, you know, the primary dealers that we talked about, those big banks like Goldman Sachs where Onshul works. Hedge funds have no special relationship with the government. They have no obligation to it.

市场的稳定性实际上并非他们关注的重点，但他们却关系到市场的稳定，进而影响政府的筹资能力和运作。

The stability of the market is not actually their concern, but they are a concern for the stability of the market and in turn for the government's ability to fund itself and function.

国债市场的运作向来以平淡安全为前提。但如今某种程度上也需要对冲基金表现良好。

The treasury market's functioning was always predicated on being boring and safe. But now it also kind of needs hedge funds to have good days.

听着，我的意思是欢迎各种不同目标类型的投资者，赚大钱当然皆大欢喜。但我们必须摒弃这类投资者总能获得救助的念头。

Look, I mean, you welcome investors of all different kinds with different objectives and, you know, God bless if you make a lot of money out of it. But we need to get away from the idea that you're gonna get bailed out if you're one of these investors.

讨论这个问题时，有个词总被提及——道德风险。我请菲尔来定义它。

In talking about this, there is one phrase that everyone always uses, moral hazard. I asked Phil to define it.

道德风险是指通过将风险转嫁给整个社会，从而获得自身利益的行为动机。

Moral hazard is having the incentive to do things that make you better off by shifting risk onto the society as a whole.

你不必承担自身行为的后果，代价由我们其他人来付。

You don't pay the consequences of your actions. The rest of us do.

问题在于这种道德风险，会导致某些不够谨慎的对冲基金以更少的资金进行此类交易。

The problem with that is the moral hazard, and then that leads some less careful hedge fund to do this trade with less cash on hand.

如果你犯错后总能得到纾困，就无需考虑该预留多少应急资金。你尽可以追逐那些看起来最有利可图又刺激的风险。

If you're just gonna get bailed out when you make a mistake, you don't have to figure out how much rainy day cash to hold. You can just take whatever risks look most profitable and fun.

所以政府可以加强对对冲基金的监管，也可以减少借贷。但如果我们确实希望对冲基金继续购买国债，让我们能多借些钱，那恐怕就得做好在危机时救助它们的准备。这就是我们构建的体系——无论是有意还是无意为之。

So the government could regulate hedge funds more. The government could also borrow less. But if we do want hedge funds to keep buying treasuries, allowing us to borrow a bit more, then we probably need to be prepared to bail them out on a bad day. That's the structure we have built. On purpose or not on purpose?

因为这似乎是个无法兼得的命题：你可以拥有安全的银行、稳定的市场，或是让人们在市场中承担真实风险，但三者不可得兼。《金钱星球》书籍今日起开放预售，可登录planetmoneybook.com提前订购。

Because this seems to be the deal. You can have safe banks, stable markets, or people taking real risks in the market, but you can't have all three. The planet money book is available for preorder starting today. You can order early at planetmoneybook.com.

本期节目由薇拉·鲁宾制作，玛丽·安妮·麦丘恩编辑，塞拉·华雷斯负责事实核查，吉米·基利和西娜·洛弗雷多担任音频工程师，执行制作人为亚历克斯·戈德马克。

This episode was produced by Willa Rubin and edited by Mary Anne McCune. It was fact checked by Sierra Juarez and engineered by Jimmy Kealy and Sina Lofredo. Alex Goldmark is our executive producer.

特别感谢纽约大学斯特恩商学院的杰弗里·梅利提出的三难困境框架，以及哥伦比亚商学院的苏雷什·桑达拉森、范德比尔特法学院的叶莎·亚达夫，还有乔希·杨格和马特·莱文。

Special thanks to Jeffrey Meli at NYU Stern for the trilemma framing and to Suresh Sundarason at Columbia Business School, Yeisha Yadav at Vanderbilt Law, and Josh Younger and Matt Levine.

我是肯尼·马龙。

I'm Kenny Malone.

我是玛丽·柴尔兹。这里是NPR，感谢您的收听。

And I'm Mary Childs. This is NPR. Thanks for listening.