美国如今持有英特尔大量股份，此举意义重大。

大家好，我是玛丽·柴尔兹。寻找一个新的心仪播客并不容易。NPR希望让这件事变得更简单。这就是为什么我们正在尝试一个名为NPR播客俱乐部通讯的新项目。

Hey. It's Mary Childs. Finding a new favorite podcast is tough. NPR wants to make it easier. That's why we're trying a new thing called the NPR Pod Club newsletter.

每周都会提供新的推荐，确保你的播客资源永不枯竭。你可以在npr.org/podclub或节目说明中的链接处注册。现在进入正片内容。

New recommendations once a week so your podcast well never runs dry. You can sign up at npr.org/podclub or at the link in the show notes. Now onto the show.

这里是NPR的《星球货币》。

This is planet money from NPR.

几周前，我们联系了贾米莎·亚历山大。我有个关于经济的理论，能跟你探讨一下吗？

A couple weeks ago, we called up Jameesa Alexander. So I have this theory about the economy, and can I just run it by you?

当然，请讲。我很乐意听听。

Yes, please. I'd love to hear it.

我们希望能借助贾米莎的见解，来深入思考美国经济中正在发生的一个重大转变。好的，我的理论是：管理经济的方式，或许与组织一场非常非常棒的派对有着异曲同工之妙。

We were hoping that Jameesa could help us think through this major shift that's been happening in The US economy. Okay. So so my theory is that the way you run an economy is maybe not dissimilar to the way that you organize a really, really good party.

这个比喻太棒了，我非常喜欢。我觉得人们通常不会从这个角度思考，但这其中确实存在一些协同效应。

I love that. I love that. I don't think people really think about it that way, but there are some synergies there.

而贾米莎，她对如何办好派对可是颇有心得。她是东海岸顶尖的活动策划人之一。她承办奢华的庆典活动，也策划婚礼。这些派对可是能登上《魅力》杂志的那种。

And Jameesa, she knows a thing or two about throwing a good party. She is one of the top event planners on the East Coast. She does, you know, swanky galas. She does tie in weddings. These are the kinds of parties that get written up in Glamour magazine.

在大型活动当天，贾米莎通常会在幕后忙碌。她可能在装卸区指挥冰淇淋车，或是向现场杂技演员确认抵达时间。

On the day of the big event, Jameesa is usually there in the background. She's at the loading dock directing the gelato truck, or she's getting an ETA from the live acrobats.

所以我是幕后主导者，你知道，负责协调和指导所有正在发生的事情。但客人们会觉得，天啊，这一切都是自然发生的。'我超爱这首歌！'——不。

So I'm the wizard behind the curtain, you know, that's orchestrating and instructing everything that is happening and going on. But the guests have the feel that, oh my gosh. This is organically happening. I love this song. No.

我们早就知道这是你最爱的歌，希拉阿姨。新娘告诉我的。所以我们现在才播放这首歌。

We already knew this was your favorite song, you know, aunt Sheila. The The bride told me this. So that's why we're playing this right now.

这就是贾米莎的工作——为人们营造恰到好处的娱乐环境。你知道吗？我觉得这也很适合用来形容政府在经济中的角色。对吧？政府正是在努力为经济活动创造合适的环境。

That is Jameisa's job, to set up just the right environment for people to have a good time. And you know what? I think that is also a pretty good way of describing the role of the government in the economy. Right? Only the government is trying to set up the right environment for economic activity.

在自由市场经济中，政府大多在幕后工作——不是调度冰淇淋车，而是修建道路、执行市场规则、监控通货膨胀之类的事情。

Now when it comes to a free market economy, governments are mostly doing stuff in the background, not gelato trucks, but, you know, building roads, enforcing the rules of the market, keeping an eye on inflation, that kind of thing.

没错。但这个延伸比喻还有更深一层含义。因为你看，即使是最精心策划的派对有时也需要助推。当人们与现场氛围不合拍时该怎么办？

Right. But there is a whole another layer to this extended analogy. Because you see, even the most carefully planned parties sometimes need a helping hand. What happens when people are not vibing with the vibes?

嗯。是的。那那确实会发生。会发生。所以对我来说，我喜欢做派对的开场者。

Mhmm. Yeah. That that can happen. Happen. And so for me, I like to be a party starter.

我不害怕走上舞池，去点燃气氛。

I'm not afraid to get out there in a dance floor and to get the gas going.

而这也是政府会采取的行动，你知道吧？他们会步入经济舞池，帮助特定的产业。对吧？他们可能会通过给汽车制造商提供补贴来促进汽车生产。

And that is a move that governments, you know, make too. Right? They will step out onto the economic dance floor and help out a specific industry. Right? They might try to boost car production by giving subsidies to auto manufacturers.

经济学家称之为产业政策，但你也可以称之为产业派对开场。

Economists call this industrial policy, but you could also call it industrial party starting.

美国过去并不太擅长做产业派对的开场者，但最近，这种情况发生了巨大变化。在拜登总统的领导下，国会通过了这些巨额法案，投入数十亿美元来推动绿色能源和先进制造业，尤其是微芯片制造。

The US didn't used to be much of an industrial party starter, but recently, that has changed in a big way. Under president Biden, Congress passed these huge bills directing billions of dollars to boost green energy and advanced manufacturing, especially microchip manufacturing.

经济学家们对产业政策的好坏意见不一，因为政府很容易搞砸。如果用错了方法，你可能会破坏整个经济派对的氛围。

Economists are divided about how good of an idea industrial policy is because, well, it is easy for governments to mess up. If you go about it the wrong way, you can wreck the vibes of the whole economic party.

是的。派对策划者责任重大。现在，Jamessa 说，作为一名专业的派对策划者，有一条线是她永远不会跨越的。

Yeah. Party planners have a lot of responsibility. Now, Jamessa says, as a professional party planner, there is a line that she would never cross.

她会帮忙启动派对，但她自己不会成为派对的一部分。

She will help start the party, but she's not gonna become a part of the party herself.

你会不会摘下派对策划人的帽子，以宾客身份加入派对呢？

Would you ever take your party planner hat off and join the party as a guest?

不会。是的。这是绝对不允许的。作为策划人，你永远不会做的一件事就是扮演宾客角色。这是非常重要的注意事项。

No. Yeah. That's a big no no. So one thing that as a planner that you would never do is act as a guest. That is a huge note.

就像，不，绝对不行。我们的工作不是去享受我们为客户及其宾客创造的体验。

Like, no, absolutely not. Our job is not to indulge in the experience that we have created for our clients and their guests to enjoy.

同样地，大多数经济学家，即使是那些支持产业政策的人，也说政府可能不应该越过某条界限。

And similarly, most economists, even the ones who are okay with industrial policy, say there is a line that governments should probably not cross.

是的。他们说政府也不应该亲自加入派对。政府不应过度介入经济，以至于最终成为私营企业的商业伙伴，甚至持有它们的股份。

Yeah. They say they shouldn't be joining the party themselves either. Governments should not get so involved in the economy that they end up becoming business partners with private companies or even owning stakes in them.

但这恰恰是最近发生的情况。特朗普总统一直在与公司达成一些不寻常的交易。最近的一项交易引起了广泛关注。它涉及芯片制造商英特尔。几周前，特朗普宣布美国政府刚刚成为英特尔的最大股东。

But that is kind of exactly what's been happening recently. President Trump has been making some unusual deals with companies. The latest one has raised a lot of eyebrows. It involves the microchip maker, Intel. Few weeks ago, Trump announced that the US government had just become Intel's largest shareholder.

你好，欢迎来到《金钱星球》。我是郭杰夫。

Hello, and welcome to Planet Money. I'm Jeff Guo.

我是基思·罗默。今天的节目中，我们将讲述美国有史以来规模最大的产业政策实验之一——将微芯片制造业带回美国的计划。

And I'm Keith Romer. Today on the show, we are going to tell you the story of one of the biggest experiments in industrial policy that The United States has ever tried, The plan to bring back microchip manufacturing to The US.

而当特朗普总统决定通过让政府加入这场经济派对，为这个实验打上他独特的印记时，发生了什么。上个月，特朗普宣布与美国最大的微芯片制造商英特尔达成了这项不寻常的协议。

And what happened when president Trump decided to put his unique stamp on this experiment by having the government join the economic party. Last month, Trump announced that he had reached this unusual deal with the biggest microchip maker in America, Intel.

我说，我认为你们应该支付公司10%的份额给我们。他们答应了。

And I said, I think you should pay us 10 percent of your company. And they said, yes.

这个声明确实让很多人感到意外。美国政府现在将拥有这家美国大公司的很大一部分股权，这可不是美国通常的做法，尤其是在共和党总统执政时期。毕竟，政府拥有企业开始听起来有点社会主义的味道了。

And this announcement, well, yeah, it took a lot of people by surprise. The US government was now going to own a big chunk of a major US company, which is not a thing The US usually does, especially when a Republican president is in charge. Governments owning corporations, after all, that starts to sound a little bit like socialism.

但这笔交易也并非完全凭空出现。联邦政府与英特尔已经深度合作了一段时间。最近的故事要追溯到2022年。当时国会中的共和党人和民主党人都关注着一个他们认为非常严重的问题：美国不再制造世界上最先进的微芯片，就是那些驱动我们iPhone、训练我们AI模型的芯片。

But it's not like this deal completely came out of nowhere. The federal government has been deeply involved with Intel for a while now. The most recent chapter started back in 2022. Republicans and Democrats in Congress had their eyes on what they saw as a very big problem. The US was no longer making the world's most advanced microchips, you know, the ones powering our iPhones, the ones training our AI models.

基本上，所有这些芯片都来自亚洲。其中超过90% specifically来自台湾。

Basically, all those chips were coming from Asia. More than 90% of them came specifically from Taiwan.

因此，国会审视了这一地缘政治上岌岌可危的局势，并表示，我们必须介入其中。于是他们批准了美国历史上最具侵略性的产业政策实验之一，即《芯片法案》。政府中负责这一切的是这个人。

So congress looked at this geopolitically precarious situation, and they said, we gotta get in there. So they greenlit one of the most aggressive industrial policy experiments in US history. It is called the CHIPS Act. The person in the government who was in charge of all this was this guy.

我叫迈克·施密特。

My name is Mike Schmidt.

你会怎么称呼自己？芯片先生？芯片沙皇？

What would you call yourself? The CHIPS guy? The CHIPS czar?

芯片项目办公室主任。是的。

The director of the CHIPS program office. Yeah.

《芯片法案》的主要目标之一是让像英特尔这样的公司在美国建立先进的微芯片工厂，这是一项艰巨的任务。迈克曾参观过台湾的一些这类工厂。

One of the main goals of the CHIPS Act was to get companies like Intel to build advanced microchip factories in The US, which is a tall order. Mike has walked through some of these factories in Taiwan.

这些设施中的任何一个，我们称之为晶圆厂，也就是工厂，其面积相当于11个足球场，使用的钢材比两座帝国大厦还多，拥有世界上最复杂精密的制造工艺、最先进的科学以及最精细的供应链支持。

A single one of these facilities, fabs, they're called, you know, factories, is the size of 11 football fields, has more steel than two Empire State buildings, and the most complicated and sophisticated manufacturing process with the most advanced science in the world and the most intricate supply chain leading into it.

而你的工作就是把这一切都带回美国

And your job was to bring all of that back

回美国？所有这一切都回到美国，试图在这里建立起来。

to The US? All of that back to The US to try to build that here.

迈克掌握的主要工具就是钱。大把大把的钱。390亿美元。作为新芯片项目办公室的新主任，迈克的任务基本上就是用这数百亿美元作为诱饵，吸引公司在美国境内建设他们未来主义的芯片工厂。

The main tool that Mike had at his disposal was money. Gobs and gobs and gobs of money. $39,000,000,000. Mike's mission as the new director of the new chips program office was basically to dangle all of those billions of dollars in front of companies to try to get them to build their futuristic chip factories here in The United States.

但美国政府，至少联邦政府，几乎从不这样直接帮助个别企业。是的，政府确实普遍为企业提供了很多帮助，比如资助研发或设立税收减免。在极少数情况下，我们也曾在危机中救助过行业，比如2008年后救助银行和汽车公司，或者在特朗普首次对华贸易战中救助美国农民。

But the US government, at least the federal government, almost never helps out individual businesses like this. Like, yes, it gives a lot of help to businesses generally, like by funding r and d or by setting up tax breaks. And in rare cases, we've also helped out industries in a crisis, like when we bailed out the banks and the auto companies after 2008 or when we bailed out American farmers during Trump's first trade war with China.

但《芯片法案》不同。这里的计划是挑选一些完全健康的公司，然后直接给予它们大量纳税人资金。

But the CHIPS Act was different. The plan here was to pick out some perfectly healthy companies and just give them so much taxpayer money.

当你刚开始的时候，有人反对你吗？

When you were starting out, did you have haters?

我们有…可以说我们有怀疑者。

Did we have we had we had skeptics, you might say.

而且存在合理的怀疑理由。产业政策的最大风险在于，当政府开始更多地干预时，可能会严重扰乱市场，比如政府挑选特定的公司作为赢家或输家。有时产业政策会导致代价高昂的错误。

And there were legitimate reasons to be skeptical. The big risk with industrial policy is that when the government starts to get more hands on, it can really mess up the market, like when the government picks specific companies to be winners or losers. Sometimes industrial policy leads to expensive mistakes.

是的。当时迈克说，有个臭名昭著的例子一直笼罩着他们所有的行动——一家名为Solyndra的太阳能电池板初创公司。早在2009年2月，美国能源部曾试图通过共同签署部分贷款来帮助Solyndra。但几年后，Solyndra破产了，美国政府最终为这些贷款背了锅。

Yeah. At the time, Mike says there was this one infamous example kind of hanging over everything they were doing. It was this startup solar panel maker called Solyndra. Back in 02/2009, the US Department of Energy had tried to help out Solyndra by cosigning some of its loans. And then a couple years later, Solyndra went bankrupt and the US government ended up on the hook for those loans.

纳税人付出的代价超过5亿美元。这成了奥巴马政府的一大丑闻。

The cost to taxpayers was over $500,000,000. It became this big scandal for the Obama administration.

迈克说，起初他在CHIPS办公室组建团队时，经常能听到'Solyndra'这个词在走廊里回荡。

And Mike says, at first, when he was building up his team at the CHIP's office, you'd often hear that word, Solyndra, just echoing through the hallways.

就像空气中始终弥漫着Solyndra的风险阴影。万一又出现一个Solyndra怎么办？

Like, Solyndra risk was always in the air. What if it's Solyndra again?

是啊。人们真的会提到Solyndra吗？

Yeah. Did did people actually talk about Solyndra?

哦，当然。百分之百会。人们会说，'哦，这当然是个Solyndra式的例子'，或者'你知道，这就像...好吧，行了'。

Oh, yeah. A 100. Absolutely. People would say, like, oh, of course, this is a Solyndra example or this you know, it's just like, okay. Alright.

我们应该禁止它。就像，应该立个规矩：不能再有第二个Solyndra。

We should ban it. Like, we should have a rule. No more Solyndra.

你得转三圈然后吐口水。

You gotta turn around three times and spit.

所以为了试图防止政府再犯，你知道的，Solyndra那样的错误，迈克制定了一个两部分的策略。首先，他聘请了一群专家。那些对微芯片行业了如指掌的人，你知道的，技术专家，拥有博士学位的人。然后因为，你知道，他们要跟这些巨型跨国公司谈判，他还聘请了这些交易专家，一些真正有实力的华尔街人士。

So to try to prevent the government from making another, you know, Solyndra mistake, Mike came up with a two part strategy. First, he hired a bunch of experts. People who knew the microchip industry inside and out, you know, technical experts, people with PhDs. And then because, you know, they're gonna be negotiating against these giant multinational companies, he hired these deal making experts, some legitimately powerful Wall Street types.

我们的一位交易团队负责人曾在高盛负责技术投资银行业务。这个人，他操盘了微软的上市。

One of our deal team leads had run technology investment banking at at Goldman Sachs. This guy, he took Microsoft public.

等等。什么？真的吗？

Wait. What? Really?

是的。他操盘了，没错。

Yeah. He took yeah.

是啊。你是怎么让他屈尊来你这破旧的政府部门的？你…你们办公室有窗户吗？

Yeah. How did You you got him to come down into your dingy government. I I did you have windows in your offices?

有。我们有。他的，嗯，他的办公室在一楼。是有窗户的。

Yeah. We had we had. His, yeah, his office was on the First Floor. It had windows.

迈克希望所有这些专家都能透过他们的窗口向外看，然后帮助政府避免陷入糟糕的交易。这就是他战略的第一步。

Mike hoped all of these experts would look out through their windows and then help save the government from getting into a bad deal. So that's that's step one in his strategy.

迈克战略的第二部分旨在解决他们真正担心的另一个问题：如果我们给这些公司所有资金，但它们最终没有建造任何微芯片工厂怎么办？所以迈克和他的团队不打算白白送钱。他们要给这笔钱附加许多条件来保护政府，避免再次出现Solyndra那样的情况。

The second part of Mike's strategy was intended to solve another problem that they were really worried about, which was what if we give the companies all this money and they don't end up building any microchip factories? So Mike and his team, they weren't just gonna hand out free money. They were gonna attach a lot of strings to that money to protect the government, to avoid another Solyndra situation.

近两年来，迈克和他的团队飞遍全球，与所有这些顶级微芯片CEO敲定交易。有时这些谈判会变得相当紧张。

For almost two years, Mike and his team flew around the world hammering out deals with all of these top microchip CEOs. And sometimes those negotiations got pretty tense.

有人对你大吼大叫过吗？

Did did people ever yell at you?

是的。我...是的。我的意思是，提高嗓门，语气强硬。像是，对我大喊。他们会说什么？

Yeah. I yeah. I mean, a raised voice, an assertive tone. Like, yell at me. What would they say?

我不知道我是否想说。

I don't know if I wanna say.

好吧。好吧。所以他们假设中、据称争论的是这些法律合同，这些两三百页的文件详细说明了公司必须做什么才能拿到钱。

Okay. Okay. So what they were hypothetically, allegedly arguing over were these legal contracts, these two or 300 page documents spelling out exactly what the companies had to do to get their money.

这里最重要的细节是，政府不会一次性支付全部资金，而是会分阶段逐步发放。因此，公司必须达成一系列里程碑。第一个里程碑可能是公司完成其中一座11个足球场大小的工厂的主体结构，届时政府将支付约5亿美元。

And the most important detail here is that the government was not going to hand them all the money upfront. Instead, it was going to dole it out step by step. So the company had to hit these milestones. Milestone number one might be the company finishing the skeleton of one of those 11 football field sized factories. So then the government would give them, you know, a half billion dollars.

第二个里程碑是公司开始为工厂安装设备，此时政府会再支付5亿美元，以此类推，直到他们获得合同约定的全部资金。

Milestone two, the company starts installing equipment into the factory. So now the government gives them another half billion and so on and so on until they get all the money in the contract.

这与这些公司以往习惯的交易方式截然不同。通常，当世界各国试图吸引这些公司建厂时，不会有这么多条款和条件。

Which is a very different kind of deal than these companies were used to. Usually, when countries around the world tried to entice these companies to, say, build factories, there weren't as many terms and conditions.

我记得曾与一位律师交谈，我们在会议室里谈判了数小时。我说：'好吧，直说吧，你们与日本的合同是怎样的？' 他反问：'什么意思？'

I remember I was talking to one of the lawyers that we had been negotiating with for hours and hours in a conference room. And I said, okay. So give it to me straight. What's your contract like with Japan? And he's like, what do you mean?

'我们甚至没有与日本签订合同，他们就直接给钱。' 什么？我当时就想，哦，这...你懂我的意思吧？但我们现在是在美国的法律框架下运作。

We don't even have a contract with Japan. They just give us the money. What? And I was like, oh, well, that's you know, that's just know what I mean? But we're operating within our American construct.

需要说明的是，日本对企业确实有一些要求，只是细节上宽松得多。

We should say Japan did have some requirements for companies. They were just a lot less detailed.

因此到2024年，迈克和他的团队已与约二十多家芯片公司签署协议，同意在未来几年内发放超过330亿美元。作为交换，这些公司承诺共同投入数千亿美元自有资金在美国新建工厂，其中包括全球前五大先进芯片制造商。

So by the 2024, Mike and his team had managed to sign deals with about two dozen different microchip companies, agreeing to give out over $33,000,000,000 over the next several years. And in exchange, those companies collectively agreed to spend hundreds of billions of their own money building new factories in The US. These deals included the top five advanced chip manufacturers in the world.

英特尔、三星、台积电、美光和SK海力士。这五家公司都在我们这里进行了重大投资。世界上没有任何其他地方能同时拥有这五家公司中的两家以上。

Intel, Samsung, TSMC, Micron, and SK Hynix. All five of them were making major investments on our shores. No other place in the world has more than two of those companies.

到一月份时，芯片法案的资金大部分已承诺到位。主要工作基本完成。于是迈克为团队举办了一场派对——不是比喻性的经济派对，而是真实生活中的派对，感谢所有人的付出。在迈克想要感谢的人中，包括团队的首席投资官托德。在进入政府前，托德曾帮助领导一家大型私募股权公司。

By January, most of the chip's money was committed. Most of the job was done. So Mike threw a party for his team, not a metaphorical economic party, an actual real life party to thank them all. Among the people that Mike wanted to thank was the team's chief investment officer, a guy called Todd. Before government, Todd helped lead a giant private equity firm.

官僚们会带什么零食参加派对？

What kind of snacks do bureaucrats bring to a party?

迈克心想：好吧。关于这个特定派对上这些特定零食的有趣之处在于。

Mike's like, okay. Here's the funny thing about these particular snacks at this particular party.

其实是托德自掏腰包付的钱。知道吗？我跟托德说，我说托德，我可以出一点小钱，剩下的你来付，因为政府没法报销这个。明白吗？

Well, Todd Todd just paid for it. You know? I said, Todd. I said, Todd, I'll put in, like, a little, and then you do the rest because you can't get the government to pay for it. You know?

所以

So

好的。那么在所有零食被吃完、派对结束后，情况是这样的。这也是故事回到英特尔的地方。在迈克团队达成的所有重大协议中，最大的一笔是与英特尔合作的。英特尔承诺在亚利桑那州、俄亥俄州、俄勒冈州和新墨西哥州建设尖端的新工厂。

Okay. So after all the snacks were eaten, after the party was over, here's where things stood. And here's also where the story gets back to Intel. Because of all the big deals that Mike and his team had closed, the biggest one was with Intel. Intel had promised to build cutting edge new factories in Arizona and Ohio and Oregon and New Mexico.

随着这些工厂陆续建成投产，政府将逐步发放近80亿美元的补贴。

And as those factories got up and running, the government would slowly dole out almost $8,000,000,000 worth of subsidies.

但如今白宫迎来了新总统，这位唐纳德·特朗普总统基本上撕毁了政府与英特尔达成的协议，取而代之的是一份截然不同的新协议。

But now there is a new president in the White House, and that president, Donald Trump, basically took the government's agreement with Intel and tore it up. He replaced it with a very different deal.

广告之后，我们将探讨这份新协议对英特尔意味着什么，以及对美国微芯片制造业的未来意味着什么。

After the break, what this new deal means for Intel and what it means for the future of making microchips in The US.

还有派对。

And for parties.

还有派对。特朗普总统长期以来一直表示重振美国微芯片产业也是他的重要优先事项之一，但他并不青睐《芯片法案》，也不满意政府与所有这些微芯片公司达成的协议。

And for parties. Now president Trump has long said that revitalizing The US microchip industry is also one of his big priorities, but he is not a big fan of the Chips Act. He's not a fan of all the deals that the government made with all these microchip companies.

没错。特朗普决心以他独特的方式推行产业政策。因为在产业政策中，实现同一目标有多种途径和工具可用。《芯片法案》完全是通过提供胡萝卜（激励措施）来吸引公司建设微芯片工厂。但特朗普的想法是，不仅要使用胡萝卜，我还要用大棒。

Yeah. Trump was determined to do the whole industrial policy thing his very own way. Because with industrial policy, there are a lot of different ways to accomplish the same goal, different tools you can use. The Chips Act, that was all about trying to get companies to build microchip factories by offering them carrots. But Trump was like, instead of just using carrots, I'm also going to use sticks.

比如，与其给这些公司数十亿美元让他们在这里建厂，我何不直接威胁他们？用关税威胁，甚至进行人身攻击威胁。

Like, why give these companies billions of dollars to build factories here when I could just threaten them? Threaten them with tariffs or even threaten them with personal attacks.

八月，特朗普对英特尔新任CEO陈立武发起了攻击。特朗普称陈立武，引用原话，“存在严重利益冲突”，基本原因在于陈立武在中国公司有投资。因此特朗普要求这位CEO辞职，这对一位美国总统来说极不寻常，如此干涉一家私营公司的事务。

In August, Trump went after Intel's new CEO, Lip Bu Tan. Trump said Tan was, quote, highly conflicted, basically because Tan had investments in Chinese companies. So Trump demanded that the CEO resign, and that is extremely unusual for a US president to meddle in the affairs of a private company like this.

然后事情变得更加不寻常。几周前，特朗普宣布英特尔已同意将其公司10%的股份，价值近100亿美元，交给美国政府。特朗普吹嘘说，这笔交易源自他与英特尔CEO的一次私人会面。

And then it got even more unusual. A couple weeks ago, Trump announced that Intel had agreed to give the US government 10% of the company, almost $10,000,000,000 worth of Intel stock. Trump bragged that this deal came out of a personal meeting he had with Intel's CEO.

我认为这是一笔很棒的交易。他走进来是想保住工作，结果却给了我们美国100亿美元。所以我们拿到了100亿。

And I think it's a great deal. He walked in wanting to keep his job, and he ended up giving us $10,000,000,000 for The United States. So we picked up 10,000,000,000.

通过这项新协议，特朗普在某种程度上超越了胡萝卜加大棒的政策。美国政府现在某种程度上正在变成英特尔，或者至少成为其最大股东。

With this new deal, Trump was, in some ways, going beyond carrots and sticks. The US Government was now kinda becoming Intel or at least becoming Intel's largest shareholder.

解读此事的一种方式是，政府只是霸凌了一家美国大公司，迫使其交出价值100亿美元的股票。这当然是特朗普的表述方式。你知道，首席交易达人再次出手了。

Now one way to interpret what happened is that the government just bullied a major American corporation into giving the government $10,000,000,000 worth of stock. That's certainly how Trump is framing it. You know, the dealmaker in chief strikes again.

但如果你仔细审视其中的经济逻辑，发生的事情比表面看到的要复杂一些，因为英特尔也从这笔交易中有所收获。这对英特尔来说是一笔好交易吗？

But if you look closely at the economics here, there's a bit more to what happened than meets the eye because Intel also got something out of this deal. Was this a good deal for Intel?

我认为这有待商榷。对吧？我的意思是，英特尔本不必接受。

I think it's debatably so. Right? I mean, like, Intel didn't have to accept.

迪伦·帕特尔是一位半导体行业分析师。他经营着一家名为Semi Analysis的公司。他表示，你必须明白英特尔正处于困境之中。过去几年间，其技术已经落后。销售额大幅下滑。

Dylan Patel is a semiconductor industry analyst. He runs a firm called Semi Analysis. And he says, what you have to understand is that Intel is in trouble. Over the past couple years, its technology has fallen behind. Its sales have plummeted.

到2025年，预计将裁员25%。

By the 2025, it expects to have cut its workforce by 25%.

所有这些困境，都让人们对英特尔最初与政府达成的协议产生了诸多疑问。就是迈克·施密特和他的团队根据《芯片法案》精心谈判的那项协议。英特尔承诺在美国建设一批下一代芯片工厂，如果达成所有里程碑，最终将获得80亿美元。

And all these struggles, they were raising a lot of questions about the original deal that Intel had made with the government. You know, the one that Mike Schmidt and his team had carefully negotiated under the CHIPS Act. Intel had promised to build a bunch of next generation chip factories in The US, And if it met all those milestones, they'd eventually get $8,000,000,000.

所以这就像是，嗯，这笔钱给了英特尔，但又不完全是。对吧？因为他们根本不可能履行承诺。

So it's like, well, this this money is given to Intel, but not really. Right? Because they're never gonna be able to make their commitments.

英特尔已经达成部分里程碑并获得部分资金，但桌上还剩下约60亿美元。迪伦认为，在他看来，英特尔绝无可能完成承诺的所有工厂建设，也绝无可能获得全部60亿美元。

Intel had met some of its milestones and gotten some of that money, but there's still about $6,000,000,000 left on the table. And Dylan says, in his opinion, there is no way Intel was gonna finish all those factories it promised. No way it was gonna get the full $6,000,000,000.

是的。我认为特朗普政府在一定程度上明白这一点。对吧？于是他们去商讨对策：现在该怎么办？好吧，还是让他们拿到钱，但我们换取股权。

Yeah. I think the Trump administration understood some level of this. Right? And so they went and they went and said, what do we do now? Well, let's let them still have the money, and let's take equity.

没错。这算是让英特尔无论如何都能获得剩余芯片法案资金的一种方式。政府立即向英特尔支付了近60亿美元，作为回报，英特尔给予了政府公司股权。

Right. It's kind of a way to give Intel the rest of their Chips Act money anyway. Immediately, the government paid Intel nearly $6,000,000,000. And in return, Intel gave the government a stake in the company.

英特尔从这笔新交易中获得的不仅仅是金钱。某种程度上，它现在有了整个美国政府的支持。交易宣布后，英特尔股价立即上涨。投资者认为，既然美国政府持有英特尔一部分股份，或许政府会在其他方面帮助英特尔。

And what Intel is getting out of this new deal is more than just money. Kinda has the weight of the entire US government behind it now. Right after the deal was announced, Intel's stock went up. Investors think that now that The US owns a chunk of Intel, maybe the government will help out Intel in other ways.

美国政府介入并持有大型私营公司股份是有先例的。在全球金融危机期间，通用汽车和克莱斯勒破产时，政府花费了数百亿美元救助它们。作为回报，我们获得了这些公司的股份。我们曾一度持有通用汽车约60%和克莱斯勒8%的股份，但只持续了几年。之后政府出售了它们的股票。

There is some precedent for the US government coming in and taking a stake in a major private company. When General Motors and Chrysler went bankrupt during the global financial crisis, the government spent tens of billions of dollars bailing them out. And in return, we got shares in those companies. At one point, we owned about 60% of GM and 8% of Chrysler, but only for a few years. Then the government sold their stock.

这本来就是暂时的。

It was always supposed to be temporary.

是的。但英特尔这笔交易不同。首先，尽管面临诸多困难，英特尔似乎并不是一家在近期会破产的公司。所以特朗普在这里所做的，我不知道，就像是一次先发制人的打击。

Yeah. This Intel deal is different. For one, despite all its troubles, Intel does not seem to be a company that's about to go bankrupt anytime in the near future. So what Trump is doing here, it's I don't know. It's like a preemptive strike.

这是一种非常激进的早期干预。而且，值得一提的是，这种干预似乎没有结束日期。我们不知道美国会与英特尔纠缠多久。

It's this very aggressive early intervention. And, also, it's worth mentioning, this intervention doesn't seem to have any end date. We don't know how long The US is gonna be tangled up in intel.

好的。那么这笔英特尔交易告诉我们特朗普的产业政策方法是什么？嗯，这似乎是一个更大模式的一部分。特朗普与公司走得很近，介入它们的事务，并将政府带入新型交易中，就像他在日本新日铁收购美国钢铁时所做的那样。

Okay. So what does this intel deal tell us about Trump's approach to industrial policy? Well, it seems to be part of a larger pattern. Trump gets really close to companies, inserts himself into their affairs, and inserts the government into new kinds of deals, like what he did when Japanese company Nippon Steel bought US Steel.

是的。在那种情况下，特朗普谈判了他所谓的'黄金股'，赋予他否决该公司决策的权力。我们为此做了一整期节目。他还让芯片制造商英伟达和AMD与政府分享利润，给予美国它们对中国部分销售额15%的回扣。那么，这些行为，你该如何描述它们是什么？

Yeah. In that case, Trump negotiated what he called a golden share that gave him the power to veto decisions made by that company. We did a whole episode on that. He's also gotten the chipmakers NVIDIA and AMD to share profits with the government to give The US a 15% kickback on some of their sales to China. And so, like, these kinds of actions, how would you even describe what they are?

嗯，我肯定会将其描述为政府的微观管理。

Well, I would describe it definitely as micromanaging by the government.

安妮·哈里森是加州大学伯克利分校的经济学教授，最近还担任了该校商学院的院长。我们请她帮助我们理解大局：特朗普式的产业政策，也就是他那套交易手腕，会奏效吗？

Anne Harrison is an economics professor at UC Berkeley. She was also recently the dean of the business school there. And we asked her to help us understand the big picture here. Like, will Trump's style of industrial policy, you know, his kind of deal making, will that work?

安妮研究过世界各地的产业政策及其各种形式。她表示，总的来说，政府对经济的微观管理越多，风险就越大，尤其是在涉及政府持有公司所有权时。

Anne has studied industrial policy around the world and all its different flavors. And she says, in general, the more micromanage y the government gets with the economy, the bigger the risks, especially when you start talking about government ownership of companies.

这一点毫无疑问。目前我们有很多证据，无论是在美国、中国还是欧洲各国，都表明让政府部分持股，实质上使这些公司部分国有化，会导致非常糟糕的经济结果。

There's no question. So we have a lot of evidence at this point across countries within The US, in China, in Europe that giving government part ownership, essentially having these these companies become partly state owned, leads to very bad economic outcomes.

她还指出，英特尔交易的一个主要问题，也是国有制普遍存在的一个主要问题，就是这些公司往往最终会免受竞争压力。国有企业会觉得，政府绝不可能让我倒闭，他们在我身上投入太多了。

And says a major problem with the Intel deal, a major problem with state ownership in general, is that you tend to end up insulating these companies from competition. The state owned companies, they're like, there's no way the government's gonna let me fail. They're too invested in me.

安妮说，中国就是一个很好的例子，过去因为经济被这些效率低下的国有企业主导而陷入困境。

Anne says China is a great example of a country that has struggled in the past because its economy was dominated by these sluggish state owned corporations.

但与此同时，安妮也表示，中国也是一个成功实施强硬产业政策的例子。如今，中国仍有许多国有或部分国有的公司，但其中许多并非由中央政府所有，而是由各个地方政府持有，并且它们之间竞争激烈。想象一下，就好比德克萨斯州有自己的太阳能板公司，这家公司正在与加利福尼亚州和俄亥俄州的太阳能公司竞争。

But at the same time, Anne says, China is also an example of a country that has been able to make heavy handed industrial policies work. These days, China still has a bunch of state owned or partially state owned companies, but many of them are not owned by the central government. They're owned by individual regional governments, and they are in fierce competition with each other. So, you know, imagine, like, the state of Texas has their own solar panel company, and that company is competing with the solar companies from California and from Ohio.

我认为这正是中国能够避免许多设计拙劣的产业政策陷阱的原因，因为他们真正相信竞争，并且不害怕让企业倒闭。这一点非常重要。

I think that that is why China has managed to avoid many of the pitfalls of a poorly designed industrial policy because they really believe in competition, and they're not afraid to let firms go under. That's really important.

英特尔这笔交易看起来更像产业政策的好版本还是坏版本，某种程度上取决于接下来会发生什么。

Whether this Intel deal looks more like the good version of industrial policy or the bad version kinda depends on what happens next.

我们确实联系了英特尔和白宫寻求评论。英特尔向我们提供了一份新闻稿，其中首席执行官表示他对总统对英特尔的信心表示感谢。一位要求匿名的白宫官员告诉我们，这对美国来说是一笔好交易。这对国家安全很重要。英特尔是美国唯一能与世界最先进微芯片制造商竞争的公司。

Now we did reach out to Intel and the White House for comment. Intel pointed us to a press release where the CEO said he was grateful for the confidence that the president is placing in Intel. A White House official who spoke on condition of anonymity told us that this is a good deal for The US. It's important for national security. Intel is the only US company that can compete with the most advanced microchip makers in the world.

现在有了这笔交易，如果英特尔盈利，政府也会盈利。这是双赢。

And now with this deal, if Intel profits, the government profits too. It's it's a win win.

但这笔交易也有可能成为双输。未来几年对英特尔至关重要。它能否赶上竞争对手，让下一代工厂启动并运行，还是一个悬而未决的问题。如果英特尔不能及时整顿好自己，公司确实有失败的风险。

But there is also a chance this deal could be a lose lose. The next couple of years will be critical for Intel. It's an open question whether it will be able to catch up to its rivals, get its next generation factories up and running. And if Intel can't get its act together in time, there's a real risk that the company could fail.

对半导体行业乃至更广泛的美国来说，这里可能还存在更大的风险。比如，如果政府过于努力地维持英特尔的生存，不断向其注入资金，甚至强制其他公司帮助英特尔生存。这就是政府开始干预经济时总会存在的风险。它有可能不知道何时该放手。换句话说，现在的担忧是，也许英特尔已经变得太重要而不能倒，美国政府现在对它投入太多，以至于不能让它失败。

And there's maybe a bigger risk here too for the semiconductor industry and for The US more generally. Like, if the government tries too hard to keep Intel alive, keeps pouring money into it, maybe even strong arms other companies to help Intel survive. That is the risk whenever the government starts to get hands on with the economy. There's a chance it won't know when to let go. In other words, the worry is now that maybe Intel has become too important to fail, that the US government is now too invested in it, to let it fail.

如果您想了解更多关于产业政策的内容，我们有很多期节目。我们有一期关于特朗普在美国钢铁公司的黄金股，另一期关于美国试图创建一个减少对中国依赖的电池未来，还有一期关于产业政策实际效果证据的节目。您可以在我们的节目说明中找到所有这些剧集以及更多内容。

If you'd like to learn more about industrial policy, we have a bunch of shows. We've got one on Trump's golden share in US steel, another one on The US trying to create a battery future that relies less on China, and one on the evidence for how well industrial policy actually works. You can find all those episodes and more in our show notes.

本期节目由Sam Yellowhorse Kessler制作，由Jess Zhang编辑，Sierra Juarez进行事实核查，工程由Jimmy Keeley负责，Robert Rodriguez协助。Alex Goldmark是我们的执行制片人。同时，特别感谢Sam Marulo。

This episode was by Sam Yellowhorse Kessler. It was edited by Jess Zhang and fact checked by Sierra Juarez. Engineering by Jimmy Keeley with help from Robert Rodriguez. Alex Goldmark is our executive producer. Also, a very special thanks to Sam Marulo.

我是Jeff Guo。

I'm Jeff Guo.

我是Keith Romer。这里是NPR。感谢收听。

And I'm Keith Romer. This is NPR. Thanks for listening.