人工智能数据中心对你的电费有何影响

嘿。

Hey.

我是艾丽卡·巴里斯。

Erica Barris here.

2025年即将结束，我们无法对此粉饰太平。

We are almost at the end of 2025, and there is no way to sugarcoat it.

这一年对美国国家公共电台和地方电台来说都很艰难。

It has been a tough year for NPR and for local stations.

但在您的支持下，美国国家公共电台将继续报道新闻。

But with your support, NPR will keep reporting the news.

而在《金钱星球》节目中，我们将继续以最有趣、最易懂的方式解读经济。

And here at Planet Money, we'll keep doing what we do best, explaining the economy in the most entertaining and accessible ways we possibly can.

如果您已经是NPR Plus的支持者，非常感谢您。

If you're already an NPR Plus supporter, thank you so much.

如果不是，请立即加入公共广播支持者社区，访问 +.npr.org。

If not, please join the community of public radio supporters right now at +.npr.org.

注册即可解锁诸多福利，包括来自NPR旗下播客的独家剧集和更多内容。

Signing up unlocks a bunch of perks like bonus episodes and more from across NPR's podcast.

今天就访问 +.npr.org。

Visit +.npr.org today.

谢谢。

Thanks.

这是NPR的Planet Money。

This is Planet Money from NPR.

本月早些时候，我拜访了肯和卡罗尔·阿帕基。

Earlier this month, I visited Ken and Carol Apaki.

你好。

Hello.

早上好。

Good morning.

你怎么样？

How are you?

我住在俄亥俄州哥伦布市外的一个小镇上。

I live in a little town outside Columbus, Ohio.

抱歉。

Sorry.

我有点迟到了。

I'm a little late.

我总是没法准确预测到某个地方需要多长时间。

Oh, I can't always predict how long it'll take to get somewhere.

他们现在已经退休了。

They're retired now.

卡罗尔从事课程开发工作。

Carol worked in curriculum development.

肯是一名工程师。

Ken was an engineer.

根据卡罗尔的说法，肯仍然保持着工程师那种记录事物的方式。

And according to Carol, Ken still has an engineer's way of keeping track of things.

每件事，每件事最后都会出现在电子表格里。

Everything, everything ends up in a spreadsheet.

他有孙子孙女。

He had the grandkids.

当你让他们做图表时，是什么情况？

What was it when you had them do a chart?

我们所有的孙子孙女。

All of our grandkids.

哦，对了。

The Oh, yeah.

他们的身高，每年长了多少，因为他一直在测量。

Their height, how much they grew from year to year because he's been measuring.

我们有一个大板子。

We've got a big board.

一块板子，上面记录了每个人二十年来的测量数据。

A board with everybody's measurements on there for twenty years.

所有13个孙子孙女每年的身高都记录在他们电脑的电子表格中。

All 13 grandkids, their height by year in a spreadsheet on their computer.

哦，是的。

Oh, yeah.

我能看看吗？

Can I see it?

我想我能找到。

I think I can find it.

看看你能不能找到。

See if you can find it.

哦，不。

Oh, no.

你没有。

You don't.

我有。

I do.

真的吗？

Really?

不仅有一个电子表格，还有每个孩子的生长曲线图。

Not only was there a spreadsheet, there was a graph of the growth curve of each kid.

那是你孙子杰伦的

That is your grandson's Jaylen's

生长记录。

Growth history.

生长记录。

Growth history.

看起来他现在大约六英尺二英寸了？

And it looks like he's about six two now?

是的。

Yeah.

没错。

Yep.

就是这样。

That's it.

在他的电脑上另一个电子表格中，肯记录了他们电费的变动情况。

On another spreadsheet on his computer, Ken had tracked the growth of a different number, their electric bill.

而我真正想看的就是这个电子表格。

And it was really this spreadsheet I had come to see.

这是我的电子表格。

Here's my spreadsheet.

所以我们从2020年7月开始回顾。

And so here we start back in July 2020.

在过去五年里，每个月肯都记录了他和卡罗尔使用的电量以及

Every month for the last five years, Ken has recorded how much electricity he and Carol used and how much

他们需要支付给公用事业公司AEP俄亥俄州的费用。

they had to pay their utility company, AEP Ohio.

像很多

Like a lot

在全国各地，肯和卡罗尔的电费，即他们每千瓦时支付的费用，一直在大幅上涨。

of people around the country, Ken and Carroll's electricity prices, what they are paying per kilowatt hour, that has been going way up.

所以我的费率大约是11美分。

And so my charge is is around, 11¢.

那就是你20.20美元的费用，对吧？

That's that's your $20.20 charge.

对吧？

Right?

对。

Yeah.

在2020年。

In 2020.

而到2025年，它涨到了19美分。

And down here in 2025, it's 19.

所以几乎翻了一倍，是的。

So it's it's nearly doubled Yeah.

五年内。

In five years.

是的。

Yeah.

我们知道为什么吗？

Do we know why?

我不知道为什么。

I don't know why.

因为AEP俄亥俄公司向我收取了这笔费用。

Because AEP Ohio charged me that.

肯也不知道原因，但他有一个理论。

Ken doesn't know, but he does have a theory.

他的理论与为构建我们新的AI未来而建设的所有实体设施有关。

His theory has to do with all the physical stuff that is being built to create our new AI future.

我们所知的数据中心是在2020年左右出现的。

The data centers we're aware of came about 2020.

然后这些数据中心就遍布各地了。

And then it's gone from there to data centers all around.

俄亥俄中部这里有130个数据中心。

A 130 data centers in Central Ohio here.

我的天，这太惊人了。

I mean, is amazing.

所以，在你心里，你把那些突然出现的数据中心和你电费上涨联系在了一起。

And so you in in your mind, you you are making the connection between these data centers showing up and this price increase in your electricity bill.

他们告诉我们，你的电价要上涨了。

Well, they are telling us your rates are gonna increase.

是的。

Yeah.

我的意思是，我们在新闻里听到的都是这些。

I mean, that that's what we're hearing in the news and all that

没错。

Right.

这意味着，你知道，他们电力不够。

That this is, you know, they don't have enough power.

你好，欢迎收听《星球金钱》。

Hello, and welcome to Planet Money.

我是基思·罗默。

I'm Keith Romer.

我是杰夫·郭。

And I'm Jeff Guo.

随着科技公司花费数千亿美元投资人工智能，数据中心已成为美国经济中的热门事物。

With tech companies spending hundreds of billions of dollars on AI, data centers have kinda become the thing in The US economy.

我们用于建设数据中心的支出，已经超过了建造整个州际公路系统的总投入。

We are spending more to build data centers than we spent to build the entire interstate highway system.

但伴随着这种增长，也出现了疑问：这些耗电量巨大的数据中心所需的电力究竟从何而来？

But along with that growth has come questions about where all the electricity to run those incredibly power hungry data centers is supposed to come from.

今天在节目中，我们聊聊数据中心和电力。

Today on the show, data centers and electricity.

所有这些人工智能投资对我们电费意味着什么。

What all the AI investment might mean for all of our electricity bills.

以及我们对此能做些什么。

And what, if anything, we can do about it.

因此，对数据中心的投资已经成为一个巨大的经济故事。

So investment in data centers has been this giant economic story.

我们谈论的是预计在未来五年内累计达到数万亿美元的数千亿美元投资。

We're talking hundreds of billions of dollars expected to add up to trillions over the next five years.

但是，你知道吗，基思，有时候整个事情感觉非常抽象。

But, you know, Keith, sometimes this whole thing has felt super abstract.

对吧？

Right?

就像它只是图表上一个叫做数据中心的线条，一直在上升、上升、再上升。

Like, it's just a line on a graph called data centers, and it's going up and up and up.

完全没错。

Totally.

而这正是我最初想来报道这个故事的原因之一。

And and this is honestly part of the reason I wanted to go report this story in the first place.

对吧？

Right?

我想亲自去看看一些数据中心。

Like, I wanted to actually go look at some data centers.

肯和卡罗尔邀请我参观他们位于俄亥俄州中部的区域。

And Ken and Carol offered to take me on a little tour of their corner of Central Ohio.

好的。

Alright.

那么告诉我你们的计划。

So tell me the plan.

好的。

Okay.

我们先从格兰维尔开始，然后去亚历山大。

We'll start here in Granville and then go over to Alexandria.

然后是一个现有的新数据中心。

And then an existing data new data center.

杰夫，我不知道你是否知道，我曾经在俄亥俄州生活过一年半。

Jeff, I don't know if you know this about me, but once upon a time, I lived in Ohio for a year and a half.

你人生中最美好的一年。

Best year of your life.

那是我遇到我妻子的地方。

Well, it is where I met my wife.

一开始，我们所在地区的地貌，就像州里其他地方一样。

I and at first, the landscape, right, where we were, that landscape looked kind of like the rest of the state.

对我来说，这就像开车穿越俄亥俄州的任何地方的感觉。

This to me is what it feels like driving across any part of Ohio.

就是一片平坦的土地。

It's like flat land

对。

Right.

农田里的树木，旁边有一点积雪。

Farm trees, a little snow on the side.

但在肯和卡罗尔家六七英里外，景色完全变了。

But then six or seven miles from Ken and Carol's house, complete change.

好的。

Okay.

你走出树林后，看到了什么？

And you come out of the trees, and what do you find?

起重机和施工景象，哇哦。

Cranes and construction Oh, wow.

还有一个数据中心。

And a data center.

再往下游一点，还有另一个数据中心。

Then a little ways down from there, another data center.

这是过去六个月里新建的建筑。

This is a brand new building in the last six months.

我觉得是谷歌，或者谷歌就在里面某个地方。

I think it's Google or Google's back in there somewhere.

然后又有一个。

And then another.

这边有一个数据中心，那边也有一个数据中心。

This is a data center over here and a data center here.

还有一个。

And another.

我不确定这个是Meta的，还是下一个的是Meta，或者两个都是Meta的。

I don't know whether this is or the next one's meta or they're both meta.

杰夫，这一路全是这样的地方，绵延数英里。

Jeff, it was just miles and miles of this.

就是原始基础设施的气味。

Just the smell of raw infrastructure.

当然。

Sure.

这些都是巨大的、你见过最普通的矩形建筑。

It was all of these enormous, like the most plain rectangular buildings you've ever seen.

它们是灰色、米色或黑色的，长度像足球场一样。

They were like gray or tan or black and they were football fields long.

你该怎么形容它们呢？

And like how do you even describe them?

我们在车里，努力想找一个合适的形容词。

We were in the car, we were trying to come up with the right adjective.

我们试了‘无聊’这个词。

We tried out boring.

极其乏味。

Starkly unimprovesant.

极其乏味。

Starkly unimprovesant.

我们还试了‘丑陋’这个词。

We tried out ugly.

它们给人一种不祥的感觉。

They have an ominous feel to them.

这就是我对它们的看法。

That's the way I would think of it.

我不知道它们应该长什么样，但是

I don't know what they need to look like, but

有意思。

Interesting.

那些窗户看起来就像通风口。

The windows, those just look like vents.

如果太热的话，它们可以打开。

They can open up if it got too hot.

是的。

Yeah.

它们其实不是窗户，

They're not windows, really,

是吗？

are they?

不是。

No.

它们是通风口。

They're vents.

玻璃。

Glass.

我猜计算机不需要看外面。

I suppose the computers don't need to look outside.

不。

No.

那些没有数据中心的地方，却有数据中心的建设。

The places that didn't have data centers had data center construction.

你知道的，运土的卡车，工人们建造新的数据中心。

You know, dump trucks hauling dirt, workers putting up new data centers.

这就像一个绵延数英里的建筑工地，堆满了管道。

It's just like a miles long construction site, piled up pipes and It is.

集装箱和建筑材料。

Storage containers and building supplies.

每次我们来，都会看到一片新的广阔荒地。

Every time we come, we see some new vast wasteland.

就在那儿。

There it is.

以前这儿是一片金盏花田。

Used to be a goldenrod field.

杰夫，你放眼望去，全是巨大的输电线和变电站。

And, Jeff, everywhere you looked, giant power lines, substations.

很明显，这些电线会为这些数据中心输送大量电力。

Like, it was very clear that there's going to be all of this electricity coming in for these data centers from these lines.

没错。

Right.

但仅凭观察数据中心及其电力线路，你无法弄清楚很多事情。

But there's a lot you can't figure out just by looking at the data centers and their power lines.

要真正理解为什么肯和卡罗尔的电费涨了这么多，你需要了解电力市场，这个市场真的很奇怪。

To really understand why Ken and Carol's electricity prices went up as much as they did, you need to understand the market for electricity, which is just really weird.

它包含许多复杂的层次。

It has all these different complicated layers to it.

因此，我们将尝试揭开这些层次，弄清楚是谁导致了肯和卡罗尔的电费大幅上涨。

So we are gonna try to peel back those layers and figure out who is to blame for Ken and Carol's electricity prices going up so much.

是的。

Yeah.

所以，我们旅程的第一站，也许是最好找的地方，就是每月给肯和卡罗尔寄电费账单的公司。

So the first stop on our journey, maybe the most obvious place to look, is the company who sends Ken and Carol their power bill each month.

我会先问你一些简单的问题，比如你能介绍一下自己吗？

I will ask you kind of easy questions to start, which is just can you introduce yourself?

当然。

Sure.

马克·雷纳，AEP俄亥俄州公司的总裁。

Mark Reiner, president of AEP Ohio.

马克的公司AEP俄亥俄州为全州约一百五十万客户提供服务，但他们仅负责电力配送的‘最后一公里’。

Mark's company, AEP Ohio, serves about a million and a half customers around the state, but they are only responsible for delivering electricity to their customers, kinda the last mile of power markets.

他们的大量工作是维护所有输电线路，有时还要建造新的输电线路和变电站，以连接新的住宅和企业。

A lot of their job is taking care of all the power lines and sometimes building new power lines and substations and whatever else to connect new homes and businesses.

这是一个简单的产品。

It's a simple product.

我认为每个人都理解这个产品。

I think everybody understands the product.

但要交付这个产品却极其复杂。

Incredibly complex to deliver that product.

马克说，大约十年前，他开始接到数据中心开发商的来电，希望接入电力系统。

Mark says going back about a decade, he started hearing from data center developers who wanted to get connected to power.

然后在2022年和2023年，他开始收到大量请求，要求为多个大型数据中心接入大量电力。

Then in 2022, 2023, he started getting a lot of requests to connect a lot of data centers who wanted a lot of power.

如果我们建一个800户的住宅区，大概需要一兆瓦的电力。

If we do a 800 home housing development, that'll be, you know, call it a megawatt.

但数据中心的规模是50到3000兆瓦的集群。

But the data centers are clusters of 50 megawatts to 3,000 megawatts.

他提到的这些大型数据中心集群，其用电量就相当于整个德克萨斯州沃斯堡市的用电量。

So just one of those bigger data center clusters he's talking about would use the same amount of electricity as the entire city of Fort Worth, Texas.

现在，我们有必要暂停一下，解释一下AEP Ohio的商业模式。

Now it's worth pausing for a second to explain AEP Ohio's business model.

它的运作方式如下。

It works like this.

州政府授予AEP Ohio在其服务区域内独家供电的垄断权。

The state gives AEP Ohio a monopoly over delivering electricity in its service area.

但为了制约其垄断权力，AEP Ohio不得自行定价。

But to keep their monopoly power in check, AEP Ohio is not allowed to set their own prices.

相反，电价由政府——州公用事业委员会——来制定。

Instead, the prices are set by the government, the state utility commission.

如果AEP Ohio希望提高电价，必须首先获得委员会的批准。

If AEP Ohio ever wants to raise its rates, it first has to get permission from the commission.

他们被允许提价的主要原因是，他们投资于基础设施，升级了输电线路或在需要时新建了线路和变电站。

The primary reason they're allowed to raise rates is because they've invested in their infrastructure, upgrading their power lines or building new lines and substations when they need to.

电网为所有人服务，每个人都公平分担费用。

The grid supports everybody, and everybody pays fair share.

这正是该模式长期以来的核心所在。

That's that's the crux of of the model, has been for a long time.

多年来，这种社会契约是有道理的。

And for years, this kind of social contract made sense.

基础设施随着时间的推移逐步扩展，所有人都共同承担费用。

The infrastructure expanded little by little over time, and everybody paid for it collectively.

但随着越来越多的公司要求接入越来越多的数据中心，并获取越来越多的电力，马克意识到这一切可能会破坏整个系统，大幅提高居民用户的电价。

But as more and more companies were asking to connect more and more data centers and get access to more and more power, Mark realized all this could kind of break the system and really raise prices for residential customers.

这种情况可能通过几种方式发生。

There were a few ways this could happen.

首先，一家数据中心公司可以申请接入，让AEP Ohio建造所有基础设施，但之后却根本不建造数据中心。

For one, a data center company could ask to be connected, get AEP Ohio to build all this infrastructure, and then just never actually build that data center.

最糟糕的情况是，它们资不抵债、从未现身，或者根本就是虚假的。

The bad scenario is that that they are insolvent or they never show up or they weren't real.

或者，数据中心公司虽然接入了电力，但却拖延很长时间才开始使用并支付它们申请的全部电量。

Or the data center company could show up, connect to power, but just take forever to start using and paying for all the electricity they asked for.

或者，它们在一年或两年后改变主意，关闭了业务。

Or they could change their mind and close-up shop after a year or two.

如果发生上述任何一种情况，AEP Ohio的其他客户都将被迫承担这笔费用。

If any of that happened, it would be the rest of AEP Ohio's customers who would end up getting stuck footing the bill.

数据中心确实需要为专门为它们建造的基础设施支付部分费用，但仅限于一定范围内。

Data centers did have to help pay for the new infrastructure built specifically for them, but only to a point.

它们被要求支付至少其申请电量的60%，无论是否实际使用。

They were required to pay for at least 60% of the energy they asked for, whether or not they used it.

但马克担心，这可能还不够。

Mark worried though that that might not be enough.

假设建设这些基础设施需要十亿美元。

Let's say it's a billion dollars to build that infrastructure.

剩下的40%，即四亿美元，将由所有其他用户分摊支付。

400,000,000, the remaining 40% will be paid by all other ratepayers.

当你谈论数十亿美元和如此庞大的基础设施时，如果把事情推演下去，我们的看法是这仅仅是开始，我们必须制定正确的规则。

When you're talking billions of dollars and all this infrastructure and if you if you play it out, and our view was this was just the beginning, we had to get the rules right.

我们得说，马克当时承受着巨大的压力。

Mark, we should say, was under some real pressure here.

几乎每个人的电费都在上涨，而一旦人们要为这个问题找到一个具体的责任人，那这个人就是马克。

Pretty much everybody's electricity bills were going up, and to the extent that people could put a face to the problem, it was Mark's face.

人们会对你个人感到愤怒吗？

Are people mad at you, like, personally?

我肯定有些人会。

I'm sure some are.

是的。

Yeah.

我不想再和别人聊我做什么工作。

I don't wanna have another cocktail conversation about what I do.

比如，你说我是AEP俄亥俄州的总裁，有些人

Like, you say that I'm the president of AEP Ohio and some of

这些，是的。

these Yeah.

有时候，我只想做马克本人。

I sometimes just wanna be Mark.

如果AEP俄亥俄州为了连接所有这些数据中心而提高居民用户的电价，至少在政治上会非常不受欢迎。

If AEP Ohio raised rates for residential customers to connect all these data centers, it would, to say the least, be pretty politically unpopular.

请记住，如果马克想提高电价，他必须获得公共事业委员会的批准，而该委员会由州长任命，州长又必须对选民负责。

And remember, if Mark wants to raise rates, he has to get permission from the Public Utility Commission, which is appointed by the governor who has to answer to voters.

因此，马克必须找到一种方法来巧妙地处理这个问题。

So Mark had to find a way to thread this needle.

2023年，AEP俄亥俄州做出了一个重大决定。

In 2023, AEP Ohio made a big decision.

他们打算停止接受任何新的数据中心申请用电。

They were gonna stop letting any new data centers sign up for power.

他们基本上暂停了整个流程，马克和他的团队开始努力寻找一个持久的解决方案。

They essentially pressed pause on the whole process, and Mark and his team got to work trying to find a lasting solution.

他们想出了一套相当创新的新规则，专门针对数据中心。

What they came up with was a pretty innovative set of new rules, rules just for data centers.

AEP Ohio要求数据中心在四年内开始支付其申请用电的绝大部分费用。

AEP Ohio would require data centers to start paying for the vast majority of the energy they requested within four years.

数据中心还必须缴纳数百万美元的保证金，以防最终不留在这里。

And the data centers had to put up millions of dollars in case they didn't end up sticking around.

我们必须弄清楚谁是认真的，谁不是。

We had to flush out who's real and who's not.

而你通过要求抵押品来做到这一点。

And you do that with collateral requirements.

这是一笔大钱。

That's big money.

最后，他们将要求数据中心承担更大比例的用电费用。

Finally, they would make data centers pay for a larger share of the energy they asked for.

以前要求它们支付所申请电力的至少60%，而现在AEP俄亥俄州将要求高达85%。

Instead of requiring them to pay at least 60% of the power they requested, AEP Ohio was gonna ask for as much as 85%.

只要数据中心如约到场并使用其声称的电量，就应该能抵消基础设施建设的相关成本。

So as long as the data centers show up and they use what they say they're gonna use, that should offset the costs associated with the infrastructure build out.

这些新规则已获得州公用事业委员会批准，并于今年早些时候生效。

The new rules got approved by the state utility commission and went into place earlier this year.

这是全国首批专门为数据中心制定的公用事业费率之一。

It's one of the first data center specific utility rates in the country.

马克承认，住宅客户仍需承担部分数据中心的基础设施成本，但现在金额会少得多。

Mark acknowledges that residential customers will still pay for some of the infrastructure costs from data centers, but it should be a lot less now.

通过分析肯的电费表格数据，并咨询能源专家，我们估算出肯和卡罗尔所经历的价格上涨中，仅有约10%至20%是由AEP俄亥俄州造成的。

And using the data from Ken's spreadsheet of all his electric bills and talking to energy experts, we estimate that only about 10 or 20% of the price increases Ken and Carol saw were because of AEP Ohio.

不过，AEP俄亥俄州只是当地的配电公司。

AEP Ohio, though, they are just the local distributor.

他们的工作只是将电力最后一步送到千家万户。

Their job is only to bring electricity the last mile to people's homes.

所以如果问题不在配电环节，那数据中心是如何让电价变得更贵的呢？

So if the problem isn't distribution, how are data centers making things more expensive?

好吧，接下来需要关注的是链条上更上游的环节，也就是输电环节。

Well, the next place to look is one step further up the chain at what is called transmission.

不是指电力在本地范围内的输送，而是指更大规模的输送。

So not how electricity gets moved around on a local scale, but on a much bigger scale.

那是一张由巨型输电线路组成的电网，将发电厂与数百英里外的客户连接起来。

The grid of giant power lines that connects power plants from one state to customers hundreds of miles away.

卡梅隆·阿里负责管理横跨11个州的庞大输电网络。

Cameron Ali is in charge of a big chunk of that grid of power lines across 11 states.

当卡梅隆闭上眼睛时，他说他能想象出整个电网的全貌。

When Cameron closes his eyes, he says he can visualize the whole thing.

在你脑海中，它是有颜色的，还是黑白的？

In your mind, is it colors, or is it black and white?

彩色的。

Colors.

是的。

Yes.

当然。

Absolutely.

每一个电压等级都有不同的颜色。

Every single voltage is a different color.

这些颜色分别是什么？

What are the colors?

765千伏是绿色的，因为那是我最喜欢的颜色。

Well, seven sixty five kV is green because that's my favorite.

345千伏是红色，138千伏是黑色，然后更低的电压是紫色和黄色。

Three forty five kV is red, and then one thirty eight kV is black, and then we have lower voltages, purple and yellow.

卡梅伦就职于AEP公司，它是AEP俄亥俄公司的母公司。

Cameron works for AEP, which is the parent company of AEP Ohio.

他的工作是确保AEP拥有的这个五彩斑斓的电网持续稳定运行，并确定需要新建哪些红色、绿色和黑色的输电线路，以将所有电力输送到所需的地方。

His job is to make sure that the multicolored grid that AEP owns stays up and running and to figure out what new red and green and black power lines need to be built to get all the electricity where it needs to go.

卡梅伦告诉我们，可以把电网想象成电力的高速公路系统。

Cameron told us to think of the grid as like the highway system, but for power.

如果你想向新的数据中心输送更多电力，就必须新建车道、入口匝道和出口匝道。

If you wanna send more power to new data centers, you have to build new lanes and new on ramps and new off ramps.

唯一的不同——而且是个巨大的不同——是，你在州际公路上可能以每小时70英里的速度行驶，而电力是以光速传播的。

The only difference, which is a big difference, is that where you may be traveling 70 miles an hour on an interstate, electricity moves at the speed of light.

扩建这条高速公路系统，建设这些长距离输电网络，需要耗费数十亿美元。

It costs billions of dollars to expand that highway system to build out those long distance transmission networks.

这些成本会像本地配电成本一样转嫁到客户身上。

Those costs get passed on to customers just like costs get passed on for distribution at the local level.

在电价回收方面，输电非常相似。

Transmission is very similar when it comes to rate recovery

是的。

Yeah.

或者成本回收。

Or cost recovery.

当AEP花费资金升级其基础设施时，通常被允许向其服务的客户收回这些费用。

When AEP spends money to upgrade its infrastructure, it's generally allowed to recoup that money from the people it serves.

负责批准任何价格上涨的监管机构，在这种情况下，是联邦政府。

The regulator that has to approve any price increases, in this case, is the federal government.

这意味着，肯和卡罗尔不仅在为俄亥俄州服务于数据中心的新的黑色、红色和绿色输电线路付费，他们还在为计划在西弗吉尼亚州和印第安纳州建设的数据中心的输电线路付费。

Which means that not only are Ken and Carol paying for the new black and red and green power lines that serve data centers in Ohio, They're also paying for power lines for data centers being planned in, you know, West Virginia and Indiana.

卡梅伦说，对新电力的需求实在太大了。

And Cameron says there is just so much demand for new power.

在数据中心和加密货币客户出现之前，我们的峰值需求约为40,000兆瓦。

Our peak demand before the advent of data centers and crypto customers was roughly 40,000 megawatts.

这就是我们的峰值需求。

So that's our peak demand.

我们花了整整一百年才达到40,000兆瓦。

It took us hundred years to get to 40,000 megawatt.

我们目前已经签署协议，计划在五年内新增28,000兆瓦的电力容量。

We have currently signed agreements to bring on another 28,000 megawatts by 2030 in a span of five years.

要准确区分肯和卡罗尔电费上涨中有多少是由于输电网络扩建造成的，真的非常困难。

It is really hard to tease out precisely how much of the increase in Ken and Carol's electricity charges comes from building out the transmission grid.

更不用说单独确定其中有多少是专门由数据中心引起的。

Let alone isolate what part of that build out was specifically due to data centers.

但根据我们与专家交流并对比他们旧账单和新账单的情况来看，输电成本实际上也不是主要原因。

But from what we can tell from talking to experts and comparing their old bills to their new ones, transmission, it actually isn't that big of a culprit either.

过去五年里，输电费用确实有所上涨，但这一变化似乎只占他们总费用增长的不到20%。

Transmission charges did go up over the last five years, but that change seems to account for less than 20% of their total increase.

把输电部分上涨的10%到20%估算加上配电部分的涨幅，仍然有一半以上的电价上涨无法解释。

Add that to the 10 or 20% estimate for the distribution part of the increase, and you still have over half the price jump unaccounted for.

那么，他们账单大幅上涨的最主要原因是什幺呢？

So what's to blame for that biggest part of their increased bill?

这要等到广告之后再讲。

That's after the break.

好的。

Okay.

到目前为止，我们讨论了数据中心可能以两种方式推高了我们的退休夫妇肯和卡罗尔的电费。

So far, we've talked about the way data centers might be increasing electricity prices for our retired couple, Ken and Carol, in two ways.

一种是配电，也就是电力送达他们家的最后一公里；另一种是输电，即通过高压线路从发电厂将电力输送到他们所在区域。

Distribution, sort of the last mile of bringing power to them, and transmission, bringing electricity along high voltage lines from power plants to their area.

这两者加起来，大约占了他们电费上涨幅度的30%到40%。

Together, those two account for something like 30 or 40% of the increase in their electricity prices.

这意味着超过一半的涨幅仍未得到解释。

Which leaves more than half of the increase unaccounted for.

罪魁祸首是发电环节。

The culprit here is generation.

发电厂才是最初生产电力的地方。

It's the power plants that make the electricity in the first place.

但这个故事远比简单的‘发电厂涨价了’要诡异得多。

But that story is way, way weirder than just, you know, power plants jacked up their prices.

好的。

Okay.

现在来点经典播客套路。

Time for a classic podcast move.

杰夫，要理解这一部分，我们得回溯到几十年前。

Jeff, to understand this piece of it, we actually have to go back in time a few decades.

那时候，在许多地方，包括俄亥俄州，公用事业公司负责电力输送给客户的整个流程。

Back then, in a lot of places, including in Ohio, utility companies were in charge of the entire process of getting electricity to customers.

所以发电、输电和配电都由一家公用事业公司垂直整合。

So generation, transmission, and distribution, all vertically integrated in one utility.

在美国西部和南部的许多地区，你仍然能看到这种垂直整合的综合性电力公司。

And in a lot of the Western and Southern parts of The US, you still do have these vertically integrated omnibus power companies.

但目前，我们还是聚焦在俄亥俄州。

But for now, we are gonna stay with Ohio.

在俄亥俄州，大约二十五年前，他们废除了旧体系，拆分了这些垂直整合的公司。

And in Ohio, about twenty five years ago, they threw out that old system, and they broke up these vertically integrated companies.

所以一些公司负责配电，另一些公司负责输电，还有其他公司负责发电。

So some companies would be in charge of distribution, other companies would be in charge of transmission, and still other companies would be in charge of power generation.

其理念是放松管制。

The idea was deregulation.

这样会带来更多的竞争， hopefully，这会使电价下降。

You'd get more competition, and hopefully, that would make electricity prices come down.

起初，这个办法是有效的。

And it worked for a while.

但如今，由于数据中心对电力的需求激增，这套系统开始出现崩溃的迹象。

But today, with all the new demand for power from data centers, that system is starting to break down.

为了帮助解释这一点，我们联系了凯西·肯克尔。

To help explain this bit, we called up Kathy Kunkel.

如果我们今天从零开始设计一个系统，我们会设计出现在这样的系统吗？

If we were starting a system from scratch today, would we design the one that we have now?

我无法想象有人会故意设计出这样的系统。

I cannot imagine someone designing this system on purpose.

像不会。

Like No.

认真的。

Seriously.

它只是逐渐演变而来的。

It has just it has sort of evolved.

当问题出现时，人们就用各种办法勉强修补，让它继续运转。

And, like, as problems have come up, it's been kind of taped together to keep working.

但我是说。

But I yeah.

我不认为真的会有人坐下来，专门设计出这样一个系统。

I don't think this is really what anyone would just, like, sit down and dream up.

凯西是能源经济与金融分析研究所的能源顾问，她首先向我们指出的是电力这种产品的奇特之处。

Kathy is an energy consultant at the Institute for Energy Economics and Financial Analysis, and the first thing she pointed out to us was just how weird of a product electricity is.

你知道，电力不像鞋子或小麦那样，可以轻松地存放在某个仓库里作为额外库存。

You know, power, it's not like shoes or wheat or something where it's easy to store extra inventory in some warehouse somewhere.

抱歉，电池。

Sorry, batteries.

你们还不够好。

You're just you're just not that good yet.

对。

Right.

对。

Right.

在大多数情况下，你必须实时发电以满足当下用户的需求，这非常困难。

For the most part, you have to be able to generate electricity in real time for the people who want it right now, which is very tricky.

电力需求或我们使用电力的情况在一天或一年中并不是恒定的。

Power demand or our use of electricity is not constant throughout the day or throughout the year.

特别是它通常会在某些时段出现峰值。

And in particular, it spikes typically at at certain times.

比如在炎热的夏天。

Like on a really hot day in the summer.

如果每个人在8月17日都打开空调，而电力供应不足，会发生什么？

If everybody turns on their air conditioners on August 17 and there's not enough power to supply it, what happens?

会出现轮流停电。

There will be rolling blackouts.

我目前正好在波多黎各，那里的电力装机容量经常不足以满足峰值需求，这种情况相当常见。

I actually happen to be in Puerto Rico right now where that's actually a relatively frequent occurrence that there's not sufficient power plant capacity to supply the peak demand.

没错，这就是实际情况。

And, yeah, that's exactly what happens.

电力公司不得不削减用电需求。

The utility has to, curtail the demand.

在放松管制之前，当某个地区的供电、输电和发电都由一家电力公司负责时，这家公司有责任确保不会出现短缺，也就是不会发生轮流停电。

Now before deregulation, when it was one utility company's responsibility to handle everything for a particular area, distribution, transmission, and generation, it was that company's responsibility to make sure there were no shortages, you know, no rolling blackouts.

他们必须预测未来所需的电力，并确保有足够的发电厂来满足未来的用电需求。

They had to forecast how much power they would need in the future and make sure there were enough power plants to meet that future demand.

放松管制的初衷是，市场可以承担规划工作。

The idea behind deregulation was that markets could do the planning.