特朗普与爱泼斯坦的涂鸦比预期更恶心

今天的节目赞助商是 SimpliSafe 家庭安防。在这个播客里，我们强调行动，而不是刷负面新闻或对着电视大喊。SimpliSafe 的理念正是如此。大多数安防系统只是被动等待最坏情况发生，而 SimpliSafe 的 ActiveGuard 技术则主动用智能摄像头和真人值守，实时吓退入侵者。这就像是“装个报警器”和“请个真保安”之间的区别。

Today's presenting sponsor is SimpliSafe Home Security. On this podcast, we're all about taking action, not just doom scrolling or yelling at the TV. That's the philosophy behind SimpliSafe. Most security systems just sit back and wait for the worst to happen, but SimpliSafe's ActiveGuard technology is proactive using smart cameras and live agents to actively deter intruders. It's the difference between just having an alarm and having a real guard on duty.

太棒了。大家都知道，现在就去装 SimpliSafe。

Love it. Set up SimpliSafe, as you all know by now.

这样他就能继续刷负面新闻，让 SimpliSafe 搞定家里的所有安防需求。

So he could doom scroll while they dealt with all the security needs for his home.

双赢。工作原理如下：他们的智能摄像头能识别潜在威胁，不只是检测动作，而是发现有人在屋外徘徊。系统会立即实时通知 SimpliSafe 的专业监控人员。这就是改变游戏规则的地方。

Win win for everyone. Here's how it works. Their smart cameras can identify a potential threat, not just motion, but a person lurking on your property. That immediately alerts simply saves professional monitoring agents in real time. And this is the game changer.

监控人员可以在入侵者还在屋外时就主动介入。他们能用双向音频当场喊话，告诉对方已被摄像头锁定，警察正在赶来。他们对服务非常有信心：没有长期合约，没有隐藏费用，随时可取消。

The agents can proactively intervene while the intruder is still outside. They can use two way audio to confront the intruder, letting them know they're being watched on camera and that police are on their way. They're so confident in what they do. There are no long term contracts or hidden fees. You can cancel anytime.

还提供 60 天无理由退款，你可以先试用，再亲自感受不同。访问 simplisafe.com/crooked 可享新系统 5 折优惠，就是 simplisafe.com/crooked。安防，就选 SimpliSafe。来自 BBC，欢迎收听《全球故事》。

They also have a sixty day money back guarantee, so you can try it and see the difference for yourself. Visit simplisafe.com/crooked to claim 50% off a new system. That's simplisafe.com/crooked. There's no safe like simplisafe. From the BBC, listen to the global story.

工作日每天，阿斯玛·哈立德和特里斯坦·雷德曼带你了解世界与美国的交汇点，在全球秩序迅速变化之际。报道来自国际顶级新闻室的必听资讯，《全球故事》可在 bbc.com 或任何播客平台收听。欢迎收听《Pod Save America》，我是约翰·法夫罗。我是约翰·洛维特。

Every weekday, Asma Khalid and Tristan Redman help you understand where the world and America meet at a time of rapidly changing world order. Covering the essential news stories from the best international newsroom, the Global Story is available on bbc.com or wherever you get your podcasts. Welcome to Pod Save America. I'm John Favreau. I'm John Lovett.

汤米·维托。今天节目里，我们将讨论：最高法院给 ICE 开绿灯，可拘留“看起来像合法居留”的美国公民；特朗普新设的“战争部”，似乎迫不及待想对委内瑞拉动手；民主党该不该给特朗普政府拨款；特朗普给爱泼斯坦的生日涂鸦被曝光，而他曾声称那不存在；民主党的中期战略；以及最新一集《MAGA 搏击俱乐部》。接着你会听到汤米在新泽西州州长民主党候选人米基·谢里尔的访谈，他来到演播室谈论 2025 年最重要的竞选之一。但先说说总统如何用一个梗图开启周末——图中他似乎对芝加哥宣战。我们就这样了。

Tommy Vitor. On today's show, we're gonna talk about the Supreme Court giving ICE the green light to detained US citizens who look like they might be here legally, Trump's new Department of War, which seems to be itching for one in Venezuela, whether Democrats should fund Trump's government, the release of Trump's birthday doodle to Epstein that he claimed didn't exist, democratic midterm strategy, and the latest episode of MAGA Fight Club. Then you'll hear Tommy's interview with the democratic nominee for governor of New Jersey, Mikey Scherrill, who stopped by the studio to talk about one of the biggest races of 2025. But let's start with how the president kicked off the weekend by posting a meme where he appeared to declare war on Chicago. That's that's where we are.

他已经把美军派到洛杉矶和华盛顿，特朗普宣布那里为“无犯罪安全区”，可劳动节周末仍有三人中枪。他暗示芝加哥是下一个目标，ICE 人员已在城外的海军基地集结。周六，特朗普发了一张题为《Shypocalypse Now》的梗图，AI 合成的他戴着飞行员墨镜，攻击直升机降落在燃烧的芝加哥天际线前。图里他好像还在喷火……你们注意到了吗？可能只有我这么觉得。

Having already deployed the US military to Los Angeles and DC, which Trump has declared a crime free safe zone despite three people getting shot over Labor Day weekend, he's been hinting that Chicago is next and ICE agents have been staging at a naval base outside the city. Then on Saturday, Trump posted a meme titled Shypocalypse Now with an AI generated image of him wearing aviators as attack helicopters descend on a Chicago skyline in flames. Also kind of looks like he's farting fire in the in the meme. Did you guys notice that? Maybe that was just me.

对，他模仿的是《现代启示录》里的基尔戈上校，蹲在海滩那张。

Yeah. Mean, he's supposed to be Colonel Kilgore from Apocalypse Now. It's of him crouching on the beach.

对。对。

Right. Right.

但是他在放屁

But the the He's farting

火焰。不幸的是我

fire. Unfortunate I

没想到这一点。

didn't think of that.

火焰的位置。不。他就像，

Placement of flames. No. He's like,

他的脸有点像罗伯特·杜瓦尔。是的。在图片里，是脸的合成

his face is vaguely Robert Duvall like. Yeah. In the picture, is a merge

的脸。他失去了浮肿的手和脚踝在那上面。我觉得那不该是

of the faces. He's lost the the swollen hands and the cankles on that. I don't think it's supposed to

他。你知道吗？不。

be him. You know? No.

对。对。对。

Right. Right. Right.

大脚踝。亚历克斯·琼斯非常详细地告诉我们了。你们看了那段吗，亚历克斯·琼斯？他说他说特朗普的脚踝有亚历克斯·琼斯的脖子那么粗，而亚历克斯·琼斯说，我的脖子大概有19英寸。所以太夸张了。

Big cankles. Alex Jones told us in great detail. Did you guys watch that segment, Alex Jones? Talking he said he said that Trump's cankles were the size of Alex Jones' neck, and Alex Jones, like, my neck's, like, 19 inches. So it's fantastic.

总之

Anyway

得去买压缩袜了。

Gotta get compression socks.

是的，去买压缩袜吧。总之，回到对美国第三大城市宣战的可怕宣言。配文写道：我喜欢清晨里驱逐的味道。芝加哥马上就要明白为什么它叫战争部了。

Yes. Get compression socks. Anyway, back to the back to the terrifying declaration of war against America's third largest city. So the caption reads, I love the smell of deportations in the morning. Chicago about to find out why it's called the Department of War.

后面跟着不是一个、不是两个，而是三个直升机表情。

Followed by not one, not two, but three helicopter emojis.

是的。

Yes.

战争部，截至周五。

The Department of War is, as of Friday.

但就像新闻直升机那种直升机，你懂我意思吗？不是那种

But like the news copter version of a helicopter. You know what I mean? Yeah. Wasn't like a

有什么就用什么呗，你知道的，阿帕奇。去找蒂姆·库克说。

You work with what you got and, you know Apache. Take it up with Tim Cook.

抱歉，你说得对。

Sorry. You're right.

战争部，截至周五，是诺贝尔和平奖热门候选人唐纳德·特朗普给国防部起的新名字。我们稍后再谈这个。特朗普被问及他是否真的对芝加哥宣战，他是这么说的。

The Department of War is, as of Friday. Nobel Peace Prize hopeful Donald Trump's new name for the Department of Defense. We're gonna get to that in a minute. Trump was asked whether he had in fact declared war on Chicago. Here's what he said.

他们说你为芝加哥工作。假新闻。亲爱的，你能这么说吗？那是假新闻。那么，你为什么在国防部？

They said you're work for Chicago. Fake news. Can you say that, darling? That's fake news. Well, why are in the Department of Defense?

听着。安静。听着。你不听。你从不听。

Listen. Be quiet. Listen. You don't listen. You never listen.

这就是为什么你是二流的。我们不会开战。我们要清理我们的城市。我们可以很快解决芝加哥，但我们会决定接下来一两天去哪里。

That's why you're second rate. We're not going to war. We're gonna clean up our cities. We could solve Chicago very quickly, but we're gonna make a decision as to where we go over the next day or two.

没有战争。没有战争。这就是为什么我们称它为战争部，芝加哥会知道，因为我发了这个梗图，但没有战争。

No war. No war. Just that's why we call it the Department of War, and that's how Chicago's gonna find out because I posted this meme, but no war.

这样跟记者说话真是太居高临下了。让人很难释怀。

That's such a condescending way to talk to a reporter. It's just hard to get over it.

我知道。我知道。白宫告诉《大西洋月刊》的乔纳森·勒迈尔，关于在城市部署军队的整个争论让民主党人处于守势，特朗普希望犯罪成为中期选举的核心议题。你们怎么看？

I know. I know. White House told, Jonathan LeMire at The Atlantic that this entire debate about troop deployments in cities has put Democrats on the defensive and that Trump wants crime to be a central issue in the midterms. What do you guys think?

我相信。是的。我是说，CNN的哈里·安廷今天做了一篇关于特朗普支持率的报道。头条要点是，特朗普的支持率连续181天低于50%，这不太妙。

I believe it. Yeah. I mean, Harry Antin from CNN did a piece today on Trump Trump's approval rating. The, like, the the headline takeaway is Trump's been underwater in his approval for one hundred and eighty one days in a row, which is not great.

但如果你看看

But if you look

他在各议题上的支持率，犯罪是表现最好的，只低2个百分点。然后，经济和贸易分别低14和17个百分点。所以我认为他们觉得，相比失业率上升、通胀恶化的经济议题，这是一个更好的政治叙事。美国健康保险公司将保费上调至15年来最高。你们看到了吗？

at his approval on issues, the best issue is crime at negative two. And then, when you get down to economy and trade, it's negative 14 and negative 17 respectively. So I think they think this is a better narrative, better footing for them politically than the economy where unemployment is ticking up, inflation is getting worse. US health insurers are raising insurance premiums by the most in fifteen years. You guys see that?

嗯。不错的报告。75%。

Mhmm. Nice little report. 75%.

大幅、大幅上涨。是的。到2026年，通过交易所购买保险的人涨幅高达18%。

Massive, massive increase. Yeah. Up to 18% for people buying on the exchanges in 2026.

抱歉。如果补贴取消，涨幅将达到75%，我们稍后会谈到这一点，但补贴正在到期。

Sorry. It will be 75% if, we'll talk about this at some point, but if the subsidies go away Yes. Which they're which they're expiring.

是的。抱歉，公司健康保险的费用平均上涨约6.5%。政府交易所，18%。总之——但，是的，我确实认为他们想谈犯罪。

Yeah. Sorry. The cost of company health insurance is about six and a half percent, increase on average. Government exchanges, 18%. Anyway but, yes, I do think, like, they want to talk about crime.

他们把这叫做“中途闪电行动”。你们看到了吗？我没看到，但他们已经命名了。

They're calling this Operation Midway Blitz. You guys see that? I didn't see that, but They've named it.

嗯，但你知道，波士顿那个是“爱国者2.0行动”？我不知道爱国者1.0队是谁。完全没概念。是的。

Well, bot you know, Boston one is Operation Patriot two two point o? I don't know what Patriot The one point o team? No idea. No. Yeah.

也许吧。德雷克·梅是谁？爱国者队。继续。你怎么看？

Maybe. Who's Drake May out of this? Patriots. Continue. Any What do think?

你为什么看起来这么害怕？

Why do look terrified?

我不知道——哦，你说的是那支运动队。

I didn't know what the oh, you're saying the sports team.

对，对。

Yeah. Yeah.

是的。我们在马萨诸塞州还有“爱国者日”，是州假日，不是联邦假日。

Yeah. We also have Patriots Day in Massachusetts. It's a state holiday, not a federal one.

对。所以当你们

Yeah. So when you guys

庆祝反对学校废除种族隔离的时候，是另一个节日吗？另一个节日。

celebrate, fighting the desegregation of the schools, or is that a different holiday? Different holiday.

这是建国的那一个。这

This is the one with the founding of the country. This

是自由的诞生地。

is birthplace of, liberty.

这一天是白佬巴尔杰把那颗燃烧弹扔进肯尼迪家的日子吗？纪念那一天吧，你们这些怪胎。什么？该死的马萨诸塞。抱歉。

This is the day when Whitey Bulger threw that, cut that cocktail into the Kennedy House? Honor that day, you freaks. What? Fucking Massachusetts. Sorry.

等等。我不知道。不知道为什么。

Wait. I don't know. Don't know why.

网上发生了什么？你为什么

What what's happening online? Why do you

俩都加入好。好

both join good. Good

不。其实，

No. Actually,

你来自的地方真不错。

What a wonderful place you're from.

是啊，我知道，这是波士顿对纽约，我能面对。

Yeah. I know. It's the it's the it's the Boston in New York. I can face that.

好的，坚持住，继续，继续，查理·加斯帕里诺。

Alright. Hold on. Keep going. Keep going. Charlie Gasparino.

加斯帕里诺，喜欢。

Gasparino. Love it.

你怎么看这个？

What do think about this?

我怎么看？汤米指出这是他的最佳议题，他只落后两个点。这是在为中期选举前的政治防守做包装。整篇文章的前提，不是勒迈尔的，而是特朗普那边的人说，2018年特朗普太妥协了。

What do I think about this? So Tommy pointed out that it is his best issue. He's only underwater by two. It's this is a spin about the fact that they're on defensive politically going into the midterms. And there was this the the whole premise of the piece, not from the from LeMeyer, but from the Trump people are in 2018, Trump was too conciliatory.

好吧？他太两党合作了，太友善了，所以现在我们真的需要进攻。

Alright? He was he was too bipartisan. He was too kind, and so now we really need to go on offense,

看到了。

which saw that.

就是你会想，对不起，我知道我们都——

Which is you go like, I'm sorry. Like, I know we all are, like

他啊，他金鱼记忆。他从2018年得出的教训是他太跨党派了。

He's yeah. He's goldfish. The lesson he took from 2018 was that he reached across the aisle too much.

对。我当时还想——你知道，我就像——我哪怕一瞬间让自己被这种说法忽悠了。然后就想，等等，记得他叫我们暴徒，说我们要把美国变成委内瑞拉，把移民大篷车怪到我们头上。

Right. And I was, like, was, like, trying to you know, you like, I like I was, like, allowing myself even for a moment to be gaslit by that. And it's like, well, remember him calling us mobs, saying we were gonna turn America into Venezuela, blaming us for the migrant caravans.

有个疯子给奥巴马夫妇和其他几个民主党人寄了管状炸弹。我记得，他还觉得那挺酷的。移民大篷车队，还记得那些大篷车队吗？

Crazy man sent a pipe bomb to the to the Obamas and a couple other Democrats. I remember, and he thought that was kinda cool. Caravans. Remember the caravans

2018年进来的？

coming in '18?

不过他确实和范·琼斯一起搞过那个活动。也许那就是问题所在。

He did do that event with Van Jones, though. Maybe So that was the problem.

嗯。

Mhmm.

第一步法案。

First step act.

我不知道。

I don't know.

哦，我想起来了，我想起来了，现在记起来了。对，对。所以那是个重要时刻。但但重点是，好吧。

Oh, I do remember I do remember I do remember that now. Yeah. Yeah. So that was an important moment. But but the point being, like, okay.

他们想借此让民主党人处于防守。而共和党人就像，CBS刚出炉的新民调显示，共和党人明白这就是他们该做的，因为被问到“最重要的问题是什么”时，答案是移民、边境和犯罪。对吧？但其他选民可不是这么说的。可你再看看，比如谁支持把国民警卫队部署到城市？

They wanna put Democrats on defense because of this. And Republicans like, CBS just had a new poll that that found that Republicans understand that this is what they're they're meant to do because they said what's the most important issue, and it's immigration, the border, and crime. Right? But that's not true of what other voters are are telling people. But then you look even on, like, who is in favor of National Guard deployments to cities?

并不是大多数美国人。大多数人都不支持。而且这还高度取决于地理位置，因为地理就是高度党派的。所以我们到底在聊什么？这到底在谁那儿受欢迎？

Not most Americans. Most people don't support it. And it's also very geographic because geography is very partisan. And so what are we talking about here? Who is this popular among?

受欢迎的是那些不住在城市里、却通过福克斯新闻、其他电视台、算法等渠道接收关于城市的信息，因而支持国民警卫队去“管”城市的人。可你要是问他们：“你支持国民警卫队部署到你自己的城市吗？”更多人会说“不”。所以这更像是一种——这在共和党人里非常受欢迎，在独立选民里并不受欢迎。

It's a popular among people who are consuming information about the cities that they do not live in and support the policing of by National Guard because of what they're receiving about the cities from Fox News, other television, from the algorithm, whatever. But then if you ask people, do you support having National Guard deployments to your city? Even more people say no. So this is sort of a like, it is a it is an it is a very popular thing amongst Republicans. It is not popular among independents.

这肯定不受那些住在部署地点城市的民主党人欢迎。所以即使在这个问题上，我也不认为我们应该表现得像是在防守。

It's not popular certainly among the Democrats who live in the cities where these deployments would take place. So even on this, I don't I don't see it as an issue where we should certainly act like we're on defense.

这和他当上总统后我们在移民问题上的情况一样

It's the same issue we had with immigration after he became president

嗯。

Mhmm.

同样，民调机构只是笼统地问移民问题，让人们对他在这个议题上的支持或不支持表态。结果几个月后，大规模驱逐、ICE把人们抓起来扔进面包车里，如果你问特朗普在边境问题上做得怎么样，他得到的评价非常好，是他在任何议题上最好的评价之一。但如果你问他在驱逐问题上做得怎么样，他的支持率远低于反对率。对吧？所以如果你问人们，谁在犯罪问题上更强，唐纳德·特朗普还是那些软弱的民主党人，我并不惊讶。

Again, which is pollsters were just asking about immigration writ large and getting people's approval or disapproval of him on that issue. And then it turned out after a couple months of of mass deportations, and ICE rounding up people and throwing them in vans, that if you asked how's Trump doing on the border, he gets really good ratings or some of his best ratings on any issue. If you ask how's he doing on deportations, he's way underwater. Right? So it's it doesn't surprise me that if you ask people, who's better on crime, Donald Trump or, those, you know, those those weakling Democrats.

人们会说，对，特朗普。特朗普在犯罪问题上更强硬。但现在我们把军队部署和国民警卫队上街单独拎出来，他在这上面的支持率就会低一点。但这都非常——非常像反恐战争——

People are be like, yeah, Trump. Trump's better on crime. He's tough on crime. But now that we're breaking out the troop deployments and National Guard in the street, he's gonna be a little less popular on that. But it is all very it's very war on terror to

我。对。

me. Yeah.

意思就是，我们想干嘛就干嘛，想拘留谁就拘留谁，想逮捕谁就逮捕谁，不用提供证据，也不用走正当程序。但你要是抱怨，你就是跟民主党一样对犯罪手软。对。这就是我们现在的情况。所以，特朗普最近试图把犯罪变成议题的例子，就是这段在右翼媒体疯传的视频——今年八月在北卡罗来纳州轻轨上发生的一起可怕的刺杀案。

Which is like, we can do whatever we want, detain whoever we want, arrest whoever we want, provide no evidence, provide no due process. But if you complain, you're just soft on crime like the rest of the Democrats. Yeah. That's that's where we are now. So the latest example of Trump trying to, make crime an issue is this video that is all over right wing media of a horrific stabbing that took place on a light rail train in North Carolina back in August.

一名年轻的乌克兰难民被杀，看起来嫌疑人有一长串前科，比如持械抢劫。不知道为什么这成了民主党的错，但特朗普出来发声了，他把责任归咎于罗伊·库珀——他现在正在北卡罗来纳州竞选参议员。你知道，右翼媒体都在说，为什么真正的媒体不报道这件事？或者，为什么主流媒体不报道？

A young Ukrainian refugee was killed, and it looks like the suspect has a long list of past convictions for crimes like armed robbery. Not sure why this is Democrats' fault, but we got Trump has weighing in on it. He's he's blaming Roy Cooper, who's now running for senate in North Carolina. You know, everyone in right wing media is saying, why isn't the real media covering this? And or right why isn't the mainstream media covering covering this?

当然，他们当年八月二十二日事发时也没怎么报道，这本来就是一条地方新闻，直到视频流出，被埃隆·马斯克他们放大。你们怎么看？

And, of course, they also didn't cover it back in August 22 when it happened that much. It was a local news story until, I guess, the video got out and was amplified by Elon Musk and all the rest of them. What do you guys think about this one?

我的意思是，视频很恐怖，对吧？无缘无故在火车上被陌生人袭击，这就是噩梦，尤其让人难受的是，这位女士为了逃离乌克兰战争才来到这里，却遭遇这种事。对吧？所以这家伙应该被判终身监禁。

I mean, the video's horrifying. Right? It's it's getting attacked for no reason by a stranger on a train that is a nightmare, and that, you know, it's especially awful to know this woman escaped the war in Ukraine to come here and have this happen. Right? So this guy should go to jail for life.

鉴于他的前科，我确实觉得有必要质问，为什么他一开始就能在街上自由活动。我认为唐纳德·特朗普谈论这件事，是因为这正是他想用来为大规模部署警力或其他犯罪政策辩护的视频和画面。而且，罗伊·库珀将是这场极其重要的参议院竞选中的民主党候选人，他们声称库珀做了某件事，可能导致这个人被释放，尽管这看起来完全是捏造的，没有任何关联。显然还有种族因素——你知道，这是一个黑人男子刺杀一个漂亮的金发白人女性，正如特朗普自己所指出的那样。

Given his rap sheet, I do think it's appropriate to sort of ask questions about why he was on the streets in the first place. I think Donald Trump is talking about this because this is exactly the kind of video and imagery he wants to use to justify trip deployments or whatever crime policy. And also because Roy Cooper is going to be the Democratic candidate in a really important senate race, and they're saying that Cooper did something that might have led to this person's release, although it seems completely made up, and there's no connection. There's obviously a racial component. You know, this is a a black man stabbing a a pretty blonde woman as Trump himself notes.

他在声明里谈到了她的外貌，对吧？但就像这个关于报道的元观点——实际上，一般来说，这类故事正是美国媒体最关注的那种故事。说什么自由派媒体对“漂亮金发白人女性被残忍谋杀”这类故事有偏见，简直是疯了，对吧？

He talks about her appearance in his statement. Right? But, like, in the this meta point about coverage, like, actually, generally speaking, like, stories like this are the kinds of stories that get the most attention in American media. And the idea that there's some liberal media bias against stories about the grisly murder of a pretty blonde woman is crazy. Right?

我们会对这种案子连篇累牍地报道好几个月。所以这只是特朗普在利用一起可怕的案件谋取政治利益。

Like, that's we we we cover these things for months at a time. So this is just Trump exploiting a horrible incident for political gain.

是啊，所以这故事只具备他们想要的一半要素，对吧？因为它确实是一个黑人袭击一个白人，但受害者是个移民，或者说是个逃离乌克兰的难民。于是——

Yeah. Well, so it sort of has half of what they're looking for in a story. Right? Because it does have a a purse a, you know, a black person attacking a a white person, but it but it's a the the person who was attacked is an immigrant or or someone who was escaping Ukraine, a refugee. And so it By

顺便说一句，特朗普本来可能把她驱逐出境，因为他正在考虑取消对乌克兰难民的保护。

the way, Trump might have had a deported because he's, you know, considering removing protections from Ukrainian refugees who are here.

对，所以他们试图把这事仅仅说成是犯罪问题之类的。但故事之所以——这本身是个可怕的故事——之所以应该获得全国关注，是因为背后代表着某种更深层的政策失败。

Yeah. And so, like, they're they're they're kind of making trying to make it an issue just about crime or or or or something to that effect. But, like, the reason stories it's a terrible story. It's an awful story. But the reason stories gain national attention, or at least that's why they should gain national attention, is because it represents some deeper policy failure.

它代表着我们大家共同面对的更大问题。现在他们可以辩称，这体现了所谓堕落左派无力打击犯罪——或者特朗普需要在我们城市做些什么，不管他们怎么编故事。但这不是全国新闻的原因在于：这只是一起非常非常可怕的罪行。

It represents some larger issue that we're all confronting. And now they can make some kind of argument that this is, like, the the represents the kind of whatever the the decadent left's inability to tackle crime or some that's what Trump needs to do in our cities, whatever story they can try to tell. But that's the reason this wasn't a national news story. It's a it's a terrible, terrible, terrible crime.

这家伙坐过最重的牢是持械抢劫，很久以前服完刑被释放。他母亲曾想把他强制送进精神病院，因为她觉得他有危险。可他们没这么做，或者把他放出来了。不管是谁干的，这都是个大问题，对吧？

The the worst crime that this guy, served time for was armed robbery, served a sentence, long time ago was released. The mother tried to get him to be, involuntarily admitted to a mental institution, because she thought he was a danger. Like, they didn't do that or they let him out. That's the whoever did that, that's a big problem. Right?

是啊，不知道为什么，但看起来这个人根本不该被放到街上。希望现在他能被关进监狱很久很久。不过，关于罗伊·库珀——他们真是硬扯。库珀只是签了一项基本没牙力的行政令，叫什么‘重新想象公共安全’。

Yeah. And don't know why, but, like, it seems like this person should not have been out on the streets. Hopefully, now this person goes to jail for a very, very long time. But, like, the Roy Cooper they are really stretching on this. Like, Roy Cooper signed some executive order that basically was sort of toothless, like reimagined public called for reimagined.

那是一个旨在减少系统性种族主义的种族定性工作组。没错，几个月后，这家伙被放出来了。两者毫无关系，根本扯不到一块。

There's a racial profiling task force that sought to reduce systemic racism. Yeah. And then a few months later, this guy got out. There's absolutely no sense do with it. They were connected.

跟这没关系。没有一个政客会特赦一群后来犯下或被判性侵儿童、暴力袭击、抢劫、严重酒驾和鲁莽杀人罪的人。但唐纳德·特朗普就这么做了。那还只是被特赦的1月6日暴徒后来所犯罪行的一部分。现在这就是一条直接的联系：他特赦了他们，然后他们又去犯罪。

Nothing to do with it. There wasn't a politician who pardoned a bunch of people who later committed or were convicted of sexually assaulting a child, violent assault, robbery, aggravated DUI, and reckless homicide. But that was Donald Trump. That was pardoning the that was just some of the crimes, that the pardoned January 6 rioters went on to commit. Now that is a direct connection from his he pardoned them, then they went to commit crimes.

这件事是有人没能给这个人提供所需的心理健康帮助，或者没把他继续关起来，或类似的情况。

This one is someone didn't, keep this person, getting the mental health help that they needed or keep them behind bars or whatever it may have been.

这就是为什么媒体的报道如此愚蠢，因为如果一个民主党人做了特朗普对这些1月6日

And this is why the meta media coverage is so stupid because if a Democrat did what Trump did with these January 6

你能想象吗？

Can you imagine?

罪犯所做的事，而且他们像现在这样再次犯罪，媒体会天天拿来说。相反，我们却假装这是不公平的，说媒体只关注了丹尼尔·彭尼——那个在纽约地铁勒死人的家伙。但那是因为那是一个大型的私刑正义案件，很新奇，又发生在纽约地铁。媒体都在那儿，你知道，他们偏向报道纽约的事。所以，这整件事就是，顺便说一句，真让人沮丧。

Criminals and they reoffended like they did, it would be all they talked about. And instead, we're pretending that somehow this is unfair and that all the media talked about was Daniel Penny, who was the guy who strangled the person on the New York subway. But that was because that was, like, a big vigilante justice case that was novel, and it happened in the New York subway. And the media is all there, and they, you know, biased towards covering things in New York. And so, like, this whole it's just By the way frustrating.

如果是一位民主党政客特赦了一个曾因袭警被定罪的人，然后无缘无故放他出来，结果那人又去性侵儿童，我会说，没错，真糟糕。

It would be fair. If we weren't for a Democratic politician who pardoned someone who had been convicted of assaulting a police officer, and then for no reason, they let them out, and then they went and sexually assaulted a child, I'd be like, yeah. Bad.

大问题。

Big problem.

那很糟糕。那个人不该再任职了。是的。我不在乎他是不是民主党人。

That's bad. That person shouldn't be in office anymore. Yeah. And Don't care if it's a Democrat.

所有人都一致认为这是场惨剧，对吧？对。而且，如果有些失误让这个人得以自由，而这些失误本可以防止这件事发生

Everybody universally sees this as a horror. Right? Right. And, like, the and and if there were mistakes that that allowed this person to be free that could have prevented this from happening

当然。

Of course.

这必须得到纠正。这一点没有人会不同意。故事之所以能获得全国关注，并被连续报道几天甚至几周，是因为争议、分歧，以及某些需要回答的问题。这只是一起可怕、可怕的事件。而因为画面中有一个黑人男子俯视白人女性的形象，它在埃隆的互联网上迅速传播，随后蔓延到其他地方。

That needs to be remedied. That's not something anybody would disagree with. Stories gain national prominence and and coverage for days or weeks because of controversy, disagreement, some question that needs to be answered. This is just a horrible, horrible thing. And because it because there is an image of a of a black man looming over a white woman, it has sort of taken off on Elon's Internet, and from the rest, it's it's everywhere else.

我们聊过，特朗普的打击行动与其说是针对暴力犯罪，不如说是帮助移民海关执法局（ICE）抓捕移民，其中大多数人在这个国家没有任何犯罪记录。今天早上，最高法院也给ICE帮了忙，取消了下级法院的限制令，该限制令原本阻止洛杉矶的ICE探员仅凭种族、肤色、职业或语言等因素就拘留人。卡瓦诺大法官基本是说，如果ICE发现某人是公民或合法居留，“他们立刻放人就是了。探员们就这么做。事情就是这样。”

We've talked about how Trump's crackdown is is less about violent crime and more about helping ICE round up immigrants, most of whom have no record of committing any kind of crimes in this country. ICE also got some help on this from the Supreme Court this morning, which lifted a lower court's restraining order that had stopped ICE agents here in LA from detaining people based solely on factors like their race, their skin color, or what job they're doing, or what language they speak. Justice Kavanaugh basically said, no big deal if ICE finds out someone is a citizen or here legally, quote, they just promptly they promptly let the individual go. That's what the officers do. That's what happens.

是啊。在她的异议中，索托马约尔大法官说，这是胡说。本案中的一名美国公民——卡瓦诺大法官和其他多数派大法官听审的那位——被按在围栏上，胳膊反扭，他是美国公民。另一名美国公民被从工作现场带到仓库接受盘问。你们怎么看这个判决及其影响？

Yeah. In her dissent, Justice Sotomayor said, that's bullshit. One of The US citizens in this case, that Justice Kavanaugh and the other, justices in the majority heard, was thrown against the fence with his arm twisted behind his back, a US citizen. The other US citizen was taken from his job to a warehouse for questioning. What do you guys make of the decision and the implications?

凯文没把那句‘立刻放人’写进去，简直像在故意挑衅。他明明清楚得很。有太多美国公民或持签证、临时保护身份的人被卷入ICE系统，然后被拘留几天甚至几周。我们听过无数次了，他却选择无视。

Kevin not putting that line in there, the promptly let the individual go, it's just such, like, trolling. You know? Like, he knows damn well. There's so many examples of American citizens or people with visas or TPS who get swept up into ICE systems and then detained for days, if not weeks. We've heard about it a thousand times, and he just decided to ignore that fact.

我确实认为短期内这会让种族歧视更严重。你会看到更多ICE在Home Depot、工地之类的地方突袭，全是特朗普隔三差五说不会再干的事，因为他的商界哥们打电话抱怨：嘿，你毁了我的建筑生意之类的。但这个案子几乎肯定还会回到第九巡回法院再判，然后再回到最高法院，所以事情还没完。

I do think in the near term, this is gonna make racial profiling worse. You're gonna see more ICE raids at Home Depots and, you know, job sites and stuff and all the things Trump keeps sporadically telling us he will not do anymore because his business buddies call him up and say, hey. You're killing my construction business or whatever. But, this case is almost certainly gonna go back to the Ninth Circuit and then get ruled on again and then almost certainly go back to the Supreme Court again. So it's not the end of it.

是啊。不过看起来他们已经摊牌了。

Yeah. Though it is It seems like they tipped their hand.

没错。卡瓦诺跳出来争辩说下级法院越权，不是基于程序理由，而是他在这里提出的实质论点，这真是个坏信号。实际一点说，临时限制令确实限制了政府的行为。当时有辆Penske卡车打开，跳出一群人，那之所以新奇、上新闻，是因为违反了法院命令。

Right. It's a really bad sign that Kavanaugh jumped in to make this argument that the Yeah. That the lower court overstepped, not for any procedural grounds, but for the substantive argument that he makes here. And in just practically speaking, the temporary restraining order had restricted the administration's conduct. When there was that truck, the Penske truck that opened up and a bunch of guys jumped out, that was of that was novel and newsworthy because it was a violation of the order.

但总体而言，由于这道命令，ICE能逮捕的人数下降了。卡瓦诺的措辞冷冰冰的。你只需想想，这张法院对被解雇的在场上祈祷的橄榄球教练的权利，或因平权行动而觉得没被录取的学生，表现出多少‘共情’；而到这里就成了‘哎呀，收拾一下就好’，好像只是张违规停车罚单或归档错误的文件，完全无视人们在ICE突袭中一旦碰到刑事司法系统会发生什么。

But overall, the number of people that ICE was able to arrest had gone down because of the order. Like, the the Kavanaugh language is so bloodless. And you just think about how much, like, empathy this court has had for the rights of a football coach who was fired for praying on the field or a student who feels that they were unable to gain admission because affirmative action. And then it is just this, well, you just you just clean it up. You just clean up the mistake like it's a a parking ticket or some sort of misfiled document, and it ignores what happens when people just touch the criminal justice system during an ICE raid.

这位女性，安德烈娅·贝莱斯，《卫报》报道了她的例子，仅举一个。她是公民，出生在洛杉矶。她刚好在市中心，当时一辆SUV里跳出一群戴护目镜的人，他们在抓小贩。

So this this woman, Andrea Velez, The Guardian reported on this example, one example. She's a citizen. She's born in Los Angeles. She happened to be downtown when a bunch of guys jumped out of an SUV in gators. We're grabbing vendors.

她被带走，扔进SUV。她逃出来，跑向洛杉矶警察，因为她不知道那些人是谁，而且她相信穿制服的。他们再次把她抓起来，扔进SUV后座。

She gets picked up. She's thrown in an SUV. She gets out and runs the LAPD because she doesn't know who these people are, and she trusts them because they're in uniform. They pick her up again. They throw her in the back of an SUV.

她被描述为所谓的“涉嫌公民”。然后被带到监狱，关押了几天，接着被控袭警，因为一名警官声称她曾在某个时刻伸出手臂，而他无法控制自己撞了上去。她身高只有四英尺十一英寸。

She's described as an alleged citizen. She's then brought to a jail where she's held for days and then charged with assault because one of the officers claimed that at some point she had extended her arm and he had been unable to stop himself from running into it. She's four foot eleven.

哦，太好了。

Oh, good.

明白吗？她在监狱里待了两天，才被正式起诉。她的律师随后要求调取执法记录仪录像。两周后，检方撤销了指控。对吧？

Okay? Two days she's spent in jail, right, before she's charged. Her lawyers then request the body cam footage. Two weeks later, they drop the charges. Right?

所以根据卡瓦诺的说法，这是工作出色的例子，或者叫“系统运作良好”。与此同时，她经历了极度创伤的体验。她现在不敢去市中心，因为她害怕再次被他们抓走。她的生活因此彻底改变。她因此被关进监狱。

And so according to Kavanaugh, this is an example of a job well done or the system working. Meanwhile, she had this incredibly traumatic experience. She's afraid now to go downtown because she's afraid that they could grab her again. Her life has been altered by this. She was held in jail because of this.

她差点因此被控袭警。幸运的是，他们撤销了指控。但，这只是众多受影响者中的一个故事。记住，曾经有个新闻，这些故事在离开新闻头条后仍长期存在。有个孩子，因为看到同事被逮捕而介入。

She almost was charged with assault because of this. Fortunately, they dropped it. But, like, that's just one story of all these people that are gonna just be impacted in some way. That remember, there was that story and these stories continue long after they leave the news. There was that that that that kid who stepped in because he saw it's just a a guy he knew from work being arrested.

他被指控袭警。他们撤销了指控，改控较轻罪名。与此同时，他失去了沃尔玛的工作。对吧？

He gets he gets accused of assault. They drop that. They lower it to a different charge. Meanwhile, he lost his job at Walmart. Right?

他们质疑他是否是公民。就像，这正在毁掉人们的生活。

They they questioned whether or not he was a citizen. Like, it just it's wrecking people's lives.

我为社交媒体做了那个视频，关于马萨诸塞州的那个女人。母亲，三个女儿，在机场被强行带走。她消失了大约两周，被送到缅因州，辗转多个拘留中心。她现在状态很差。她每天都在哭泣，因为他们——我们节目里聊过——他们像扔垃圾一样把她扔在马萨诸塞州伯灵顿商场旁的雨地里。

I did that video for Socials about that woman in Massachusetts. Mother, three daughters, get ripped away at the airport. She was gone for, like, two weeks, shipped to Maine, shipped to a bunch of different detention centers. She's now, like, not well. She's sobbing every day because they they well, we talked about this on the show that they, like, threw out of a van in the rain by the Burlington Mall in Massachusetts.

就像，这种事一直在发生。我一开始想，卡瓦诺是不是只看右翼媒体？他是不是在撒谎？但后来，正如索托马约尔所说，案件中的两名原告都是美国公民。是的。

Like, this is it's just happening all the time. And it's, like, it's one thing I'm like, first I was like, did Kavanaugh does he just only consume right wing media? Is he just lying? But then, as Sotomayor said, the two plaintiffs in the case were US citizens. Yeah.

然后他说，后来他说

And then he says later, he goes

不在乎。

Doesn't care.

他说，嗯，如果过度使用武力，第四修正案禁止这种行为，联邦法院应提供救济。他接着说，但我们现在讨论的不是过度武力。诺亚·费尔德曼在彭博社也指出，这理所当然被视为将在洛杉矶乃至全国允许种族定性。但他还说，裁决的写法意味着他们可以对任何人这么做。任何人。

He goes, well, to the extent that excessive force has been used, the Fourth Amendment prohibits such action and remedies should be available in federal court. He's like, but we're not but we're not talking about excessive force right here. And Noah Feldman points out in Bloomberg too that it is rightly seen as this is going to allow racial profiling in Los Angeles and and all over the country. But he said, also, the the way that the ruling is written, it means that they can do this to anyone. Anyone.

他们可以编造任何一类人，因为合理怀疑的标准很低。所以，你知道，他就像……他说，我们讨论这个很奇怪，因为对象是移民，于是我们说，哦，如果你说西班牙语，如果你的姓氏怎样怎样。他接着说，但政府要是把高犯罪社区里所有年轻黑人拦下来，或者把华尔街穿巴塔哥尼亚的白人全拦下来查内幕交易，那显然违法。可现在最高法院就这么定了，所以任何走在路上的人，他们都能拦下来说，嗯，我们基于这样那样的理由有合理怀疑，就这样。然后直到你证明自己是公民——不是他们去查，而是你自己证明——否则你就可能被拘留。

They can make up any kind of category of people that the government because reasonable suspicion is a very low standard. And so, you know, he was like and it's weird that we're he's like, we're talking about it because it's immigrants, and so we're like, oh, well, if you speak Spanish and if you're, you know, your last name, whatever. He goes, but it would be plainfully unlawful for the government to stop all young black men in high crime neighborhoods or for that matter, all Patagonia clad white guys on Wall Street in a suite for insider training. But that is now what the Supreme Court has set out, so anyone walking around, they can stop you and be like, well, we have reasonable suspicion based on blah blah blah blah blah blah, and that's it. And then until you prove that you're a citizen, not until they check it, but until you prove it, then you can be held.

而且他们常常不让人提供公民证明。对。今天有篇美联社的报道里有个例子，那家伙把身份证交给警察或移民执法局探员。他们扣了二十分钟才放人，还把身份证没收了。是啊。

And they often won't let people provide proof of citizenship. Right. There's an example in one of the I think it was the AP story today where the guy gave his ID to these cops or the ICE agents. They they held onto it for twenty minutes before letting him go and then kept his ID. Yeah.

对。甚至还没说到更广泛的滥用可能，问题是建议是什么？建议是大家都要随身带证件吗？我们是不是已经到了特朗普政府接管下的阶段，就像你必须随身带证件？典型的威权国家标志就是你得带着文件，因为随时可能被拦下。如果你没带证件，无法证明自己是公民或有合法移民身份，就可能被扣留几小时甚至几天。

Yeah. And even before you get to, like, broader ways in which this could be abused, what is the advice is the advice everyone needs to carry their papers? Are we are we at the phase of of the Trump government takeover where, like, you have to carry papers with you? A classic a sign of of an authoritarian state that you need to have a piece you have your documentation with you because at any time, you could be stopped. And if you don't have your papers, if you can't prove you're a citizen or or or have valid immigration status, You could be held for hours or days.

你知道你爸妈的电话吗？知道你姐的吗？知道你朋友的吗？好让他们去你公寓找证件？因为要是不知道，又赶上周末，你可能得在这儿待一阵子。

Do you know your parents' number? Do you know your sister's number? Do you know your friend's number to go into your apartment and go find the documentation? Because if you don't and it's the weekend, you may be here for a while.

是啊，真他妈离谱。过去几天里最出人意料的移民新闻之一是，联邦探员突袭了佐治亚州一家现代电池厂，拘留了475人，其中大多数是来自韩国的工人。特朗普周日被问到此事。这是他给出的非常详尽、条理清晰的解释。

Yeah. It's fucking outrageous. One of the more surprising immigration stories over the last few days was the, federal raid on a Hyundai battery plant in Georgia where agents detained 475 people, the majority of whom are workers from South Korea. Trump was asked about this on Sunday. Here's the, the really detailed cogent explanation he gave.

如果我们国内现在没有懂电池的人，也许我们应该帮帮他们，让一些人进来培训我们的人。但结果会很有意思。我想我们可能学到了点东西，因为当他们来到这里，没人能做他们该做的事，他们带人过来，这些人也能教我们的员工。你知道，这很复杂。而且，可能会因此出现一些非常有趣的事情。

If you don't have people in this country right now that know about batteries, maybe we should help them along and let some people come in and train our people. But it's gonna be very interesting what comes out. I think we may have learned something because when they come here and there's nobody that can do what they're supposed to be doing and they bring people, those people can also teach our people. You know, it's complicated stuff. And, something very interesting could come out of that.

他就是个彻头彻尾的白痴。

He's such a fucking idiot.

所以你是说，那些不是美国人的人可能拥有对美国和美国有用的技能，也许我们应该引进……

So you're saying other people who aren't Americans may have skills that could be useful to Americans and America, and maybe we should bring

让他们在这儿待一会儿？

them here for a bit?

我们不把他们带到这儿，是因为你们政府对用于这类专业工作和培训的H-1B签证设了上限。这就是那些韩国人没有的东西，所以他们因滥用签证被捕，现在正被遣返。

The reason we're not bringing them here is because your administration has a cap on h one b visas that are used for this kind of specialized work and training. That's what those people these these Koreans didn't have, which is why they were arrested for misusing a visa and are now being deported.

可你在《All In》播客里对那些傻瓜说你百分之百支持。

Which you told the doofuses at the All In podcast that you were a 100% for.

我就是，太让人抓狂了。我是说，对啊。

I just it's like, it's so infuriating. I mean yeah.

Tommy，你今早说这已经变成一场彻头彻尾的国际事件了。

Tommy, you were saying this morning that this is now like a a full fledged international incident.

对，这是件大事。首先，倒带看看，在拜登和特朗普任内，韩国被要求在美国投资数千亿美元，他们照做了。这家佐治亚的电池厂就是一部分，本应是特朗普想要的典型。

Yeah. It's a huge thing. Like, South first of all, just roll back the tape. Like, under Biden and then Trump, South Korea was asked to invest hundreds of billions of dollars in The US, and they did so. This this battery plant in Georgia is part of that, and it's supposed to be exactly what Trump wants.

这是一条让你避开大约40%关税的路。结果这些人被捕，而且不是悄悄遣返，而是把他们手脚腰全铐起来，还发了个炒作视频。那视频在韩国炸了，媒体和反对党都疯了，完全可以理解，因为这对个人、对国家、对 supposedly 坚如磐石的美韩同盟都是巨大侮辱。

It's a way you buy yourself out of some, you know, 40% tariff or whatever. And then these arrests happened, and these like, they don't just arrest these people and, like, quietly send them home. They shackled them hand to waist to toe and released a, like, hype video of it. And that video just exploded across Korea. And the media and the opposition political parties went insane, understandably, because it's a huge insult to these individuals, to the country, to this, like, US South Korea alliance that's supposed to be rock solid.

所有这些公司和政界领袖都在想，我们跟这家伙到底做了什么交易？我以为我们投资就能换来——不是恩惠，而是——起码被体面对待。所以上个月韩国总统还在椭圆形办公室跟特朗普谈，现在这被视为赤裸裸的背叛。

And all of these these companies and political leaders are wondering, like, what is the deal we cut with this guy? Right? I thought we were supposed to invest and and get not a favor, but, like, get treated decently. And so what was it last month, I think, the Korean president was in the Oval Office talking to Trump. And now, it's just viewed as this gigantic betrayal.

我觉得这种事不会就此过去，随着时间推移，真的会伤害美韩关系。

And I I I think this kind of thing, like, it it doesn't go away. So, like, this will bear out over time and really harm The US Korean relationship.

你看到没，韩国有个政客说，他们该开始查在韩国持签证教书的美国人，也许把他们遣返回去？我懂那意思。

Did you see one of the politicians in South Korea said they should start looking at Americans who were teaching on visas over in South Korea and, like, maybe, you know, send them back home? It's like, I I get that.

我的意思是，我们在韩国有28500名驻军，有很多理由不去做混蛋。

I mean, we have 28,500 troops sitting in South Korea. There's a lot of reasons not to be dickheads.

是啊，把这些人像某种危险分子一样铐起来。他们只是在电池厂工作。我们寻求这些交易、这些合作，来建这些电池厂。一些美国公司也参与其中，部分原因是这样能让他们雇到非工会的人。

Yeah. The the shackling of these people as if they were, like, some, like, sort of danger. They're they're working in a a battery plant. We sought these deals, these partnerships, to have these battery facilities. Some American companies were part of them, in part because it allowed them to hire people outside of their unions.

对吧？所以有些人就是这样进来干这些活的。另一方面，当特朗普在这里讲话时，你能看到他在回忆某次会议，有人给他解释过其中的复杂性。他知道这是国际事件，他知道他们希望这些项目成功，这看起来会很糟糕。

Right? That's how some of these people come in to do these jobs. The other the other part of this too is when when Trump is speaking here, it's just one of those moments where you see him remembering a meeting he was in, where he was explained some some complication of this. Right? Like, that because he's aware that this is an international incident, and he's aware that they want these plans succeed, and that this looks bad.

对吧？所以他试图表达我们确实需要这些工作，我们不是要关掉这些厂子，这很重要，这是好事。

Right? So he's, like, trying to make some reference to how we really need these jobs. Like, we're not trying to shut down these plants. This is important. This is good.

我们得找其他人。但他对背景或H-1B签证一无所知，他记不住这些信息。所以这是个很好的例子。

We gotta get other people. But, like, he has no familiarity with the the the context or h one b v's. He can't retain any of this information. So it's a good example of that.

是啊，这就像个新产业，对吧？这个新的电动车电池产业，是专业工作。

Yeah. It's like a new industry. Right? This this new, like, EV battery industry. It's specialized work.

当然，你需要有人进来培训你如何建工厂，然后工厂再去雇所有人。但让他的政府去让这些事更难办，而他看起来什么都不懂，毫无实质内容。

Of course, you need people to come in and train you into how to create the factory that will then employ all these people. But, like, his administration is the one making it harder for these companies to do that, and he just doesn't seem to understand anything. No substance.

或者说，也许这不是零和。也许让韩国人进来教美国人怎么做电池，同时给他们在这里生活的权利，这样能让美国人、韩国人以及我们整个经济都受益。

Or or the idea that maybe this is not zero sum. Maybe maybe that bringing in, South Koreans to help teach Americans how to make batteries and then giving them the the privilege of living here as well can benefit Americans and South Koreans and our whole economy.

而且总是工人被铐起来带走，对吧？比如在肉类加工厂或其他地方。真是神奇，怎么就成了公司受害的犯罪了。

And it's always the it's always the workers too who are the ones who get shackled and carted off. Right? Like, at the meat packing plants or all these other places. It's like, well, it's amazing how it's a crime being inflicted on the companies. Right.

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心理治疗很棒，你真的可以试试。是啊，你可能觉得自己不需要，这大概是大多数人的想法。

Therapy's great. You could use it. Yeah. You might not think you could use it. That's probably most people.

可一旦你去试了一次，你就会想：哇，这挺酷的，我能找个人聊聊我的问题，而且他们是被付钱来听我说的。如果你觉得“我不想出门去谁的办公室”，那 BetterHelp 就是干这个的，直接在线搞定。作为全球最大的在线心理治疗平台，BetterHelp 能让你接触到拥有各种专业背景的心理健康专家。

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用 BetterHelp 找到适合你的那一位。我们的听众在 betterhelp.com/psa 首月可享 9 折优惠。网址是 betterhelp.com/psa。下面聊聊“和平总统”新设的“战争部”——1949 年以前国防部就叫这个名字。周五特朗普签署行政令要给部门改名，可实际上没有国会法案他根本改不了。

Find the one with BetterHelp. Our listeners get 10% off their first month at betterhelp.com/psa. That's better,help,.com/psa. So let's talk about the peace president's new Department of War, which is what the defense department used to be called prior to 1949. Trump signed an executive order on Friday to rename the department, which you can't actually do without an act of congress.

所以行政令只说这是“副标题”。但这没挡住皮特·赫格塞斯把推特账号从 @secdef 改成 @secwar，他还拍了段视频，把自己办公室门上的名牌给换了。现在 Defense.gov 会跳转到 War.gov，等等等等。各位怎么看这次品牌重塑？

So the EO just says it's a, quote, secondary title. This did not stop Pete Hegseth from changing his Twitter handle from secdef to secwar. He also shot a video of the nameplate being changed on his office door. Defense.gov now takes you to war.gov, etcetera, etcetera, etcetera. What do we think of the rebrand, guys?

我不在乎。

I don't care.

我……我发现自己根本不在乎。我看到有人说“我真不敢相信他居然干这事”，但我只觉得困惑。因为就算他教训并贬低那位记者时，也说不想当“战争总统”，他老在讲自己如何结束战争，可“战争”听起来又比“国防”强硬。整件事就是一团乱麻，毫无逻辑。

I don't I I find myself not caring. I don't I, like, I see people being like, well, I can't believe he's doing this. I find it all pretty confusing because even as he as he lectured and talked down to that reporter, he doesn't wanna be a war president. He constantly talks about how he's ending wars, but yet war seems tougher than defense. Like, the whole thing is garbled and nonsense.

它本质上依旧叫“国防部”，名字根本没改，只是个绰号。他想叫啥就叫啥吧。我很难为此激动。

It's really fundamentally not the name of the Department of Defense, which it continues to be. It is a nickname. So he can call it whatever he wants. Like, I'd I, like, I'd I I have trouble getting spun up about this.

是啊，1947 年《国家安全法》和 1949 年的修正案改名字，可不只是换招牌，而是对国防和国家安全体系的根本重组——把陆海空军都归到国防部长手下，还成立了国家安全委员会和中央情报局。那是历史上的重大变革。

Yeah. I mean, the National Security Act of 1947 and the amendment in '49 that changed the name, that was that was not just a rebrand. That was, like, a fundamental restructuring of the way we do defense in national security. It it put the army and the navy and the air force under the sec def, and then it created the NSC, the National Security Council, and it created the CIA. So that was a substantial change in our history.

这次纯粹……你说得对，就是个绰号。他们甚至没真把名字改成“战争部”。所以我跟你一样：我无所谓。

This is just it it you're right. It's just a nickname. They don't really even change the name to to Birmingham defense. So I I'm with you. Like, I don't give a shit.

我确实觉得这很令人困惑。他好像在争取和平的外衣，却又把美军派进美国城市。为什么现在改名？我猜他们只是觉得听起来很酷。

I do find it just confusing, though. It's like he is going for this peace mantle. He is sending the US military into American cities. Why do this rename now? I guess they just think it sounds cool.

我怀疑他是从‘对芝加哥开战’这个梗出发，然后倒推，说‘现在你知道战争部是干什么的了’。显然，他们喜欢叫‘战争部’，因为他们想显得好战、强硬。

I wonder if he started from the war on Chicago meme and then worked backwards to make that work by say by saying now you know what the Department of War is all about. Clearly, they love calling it the Department of War because they want to be bellicose Tough.

嗯。

Yeah.

强硬。至于和平，他们的逻辑是：你得先变得强大、强硬，把别人打得落花流水，用轰炸让所有人屈服，这样才能实现和平。

And tough. And the whole thing about peace is just that the way that you get to peace is by being big and strong and tough and kicking the shit out of everyone else and being able to bomb everyone else into submission.

他们是不是觉得越战对我们挺成功？他看过《现代启示录》吗？他

That's They think Vietnam went well for us? Do you think he's seen Apocalypse Now? Does he

知道那是反战电影吗？

know that it's a it's an anti war movie?

对啊，不知道。

Yeah. No.

但他们会说，那是因为部门改名了。

But they would say, well, that was because that was because of the department name change.

没错。

Right.

当它还是‘政府部门’的时候，事情更顺利。

That things worked better when it was a department of government.

对。对。对。于是特朗普政府真的决定把五角大楼的新名字拿出来遛遛，向加勒比海派遣了八艘军舰，然后打死了一艘快艇上的11个人，这些人涉嫌从委内瑞拉向特立尼达运送毒品。政府懒得为这次杀戮提供任何法律依据，不过J。

Right. Right. Right. So the Trump administration did decide to take the Pentagon's new name out for a spin by deploying eight warships to the Caribbean and then killing 11 people on a speedboat who were suspected of trafficking drugs from Venezuela to Trinidad. The administration didn't bother to provide any kind of legal rationale for the killing, though J.

D·万斯确实在推特上和克拉斯滕斯坦兄弟吵了一架。副总统发推说，“杀死那些毒害我们同胞的卡特尔成员，是军队的最高尚、最佳用途。”克拉斯滕斯坦兄弟之一（不确定是哪一个）回应说，未经正当程序就杀死别国平民，这叫战争罪。万斯回怼：“我才不管你怎么叫。”然后我猜他周六剩下的时间就休息了。

D. Vance did get into a Twitter fight with the Krasenstein brother over the whole thing. The vice president tweeted that, quote, killing cartel members who poison our fellow citizens is the highest and best use of our military, To which the Krasenstein brother, not sure which one, responded that killing another country's civilians without due process is called a war crime. To which Vance replied, I don't give a shit what you call it. And then I guess he took the rest of the Saturday off.

嗯。

Mhmm.

特朗普对于是否计划对我们尚未宣战的国家发动更多军事打击，他是这么说的。

Here's what Trump said about whether he's planning more military strikes against a country we haven't declared war against.

你是否考虑攻击委内瑞拉境内的一个卡特尔？你已经动手了。

Are you considering attacking a cartoon inside of Venezuela? You are done.

你等着瞧吧？你等着瞧。

What are gonna find out? You're gonna find out.

我跟你说，每当他说“你等着瞧”，那就是肯定的意思。

I'll tell you what. Whenever he says, you're gonna find out, that's a yes.

没错，绝对是。

Yeah. For sure.

汤姆，对主动选择对委内瑞拉开战有什么看法？

Thoughts on a preemptive war of choice against Venezuela, Tom?

我的意思是，你看看他们派到加勒比海的装备，八艘海军驱逐舰，据说还有一艘核潜艇正在路上。什么？我在《新闻周刊》还是CNN上看到的。10架F-35战机刚刚被调到波多黎各，作为这场新战争的一部分。

I mean, it is when you look at, like, kind of the hardware they're sending down to the Caribbean, it's eight navy destroyers. Apparently, a nuclear sub is on the way. What? I've read that in, I think, Newsweek or CNN. 10 f 35 fighter jets were just moved to Puerto Rico as part of whatever this new war is.

而且，你不需要一艘潜艇。你不需要一架F-35隐形战斗机、第五代战斗机去干掉一艘装满毒品的船。这本来是你用直升机或无人机就能做的事。这让人不安。所以我觉得这很令人不安。

And, you don't need a sub. You don't need a f 35 stealth fighter jet, fifth generation fighter jet to take out a boat full of drugs. Like, this would be something you would do with a helicopter or a drone. It's unnerving. And so I find it unnerving.

委内瑞拉总统尼古拉斯·马杜罗也觉得相当不安。他认为这是入侵的威胁。他正在谈论部署他组建的这种混合民兵，我想是450万人，遍布全国，以防他们被入侵。加勒比地区的其他领导人也很恐慌。他们有点像，你知道的，这到底是怎么回事？

Nicolas Maduro, the president of Venezuela, finds quite unnerving. He thinks it's the threat of an invasion. He's talking about deploying this kind of hybrid militia he's constructed of, I think, 4,500,000 people all over the country in case they are invaded. And other leaders in The Caribbean are all freaked out too. They're kinda like, you know, what's happening here?

特朗普，记得吗，两周前他还在威胁要夺回巴拿马运河。是的。对吧？所以这对他们来说并不寻常。听着。

Trump, know, remember he was threatening to retake the Panama Canal, like, two weeks ago. Yeah. Right? So this is not this is odd for them. Look.

我在竞选期间就感觉到，有一股很强的势头要把毒品战争军事化。记得吗，他们在竞选活动中一直谈论这个。民调显示，这项计划的某些部分出人意料地受欢迎。我担心特朗普会喜欢在媒体报道中看起来果断，并发布这些船只被炸毁的“处决视频”。不久之后，我们就会打击墨西哥、委内瑞拉、厄瓜多尔的地点，而不仅仅是国际水域。

I I have felt since the campaign that there was a lot of momentum towards militarizing the war on drugs. Remember, they talked about it all the time on the campaign trail. The polling is surprisingly good for some pieces of this plan. I fear that Trump is gonna love looking decisive in the press coverage and releasing these snuff videos of boats blowing up. And before long, we're gonna be hitting sites Mexico or Venezuela or Ecuador or not just international waters.

而且，你知道，很多消息人士告诉CNN，这次打击是一个行动的开端，可能包括政权更迭。所以这很可怕。而且，听着，这些都不会减少美国国内对毒品的需求。我觉得炸毁毒品船在阻止毒品流入方面，不太可能比拦截它们更有效。

And, you know, a lot of sources told CNN that the strike was the beginning of an effort that could include regime change. So it's pretty scary stuff. And, like, none look. None of this is gonna reduce the demand for drugs in The US. I I it seems unlikely to me that blowing up drug boats is gonna do more to stop the flow of drugs than interdicting them would.

但我们就拭目以待吧。但现在，我们就是在对毒贩进行即决处决。

But I guess we'll see. But right now, we're just doing summary executions of drug runners now.

我们就是这么干的。你觉得政权不稳定、人们绝望的情况下会发生什么？他们会去哪儿？这会减少——这会减少他们涌向我们边境的势头吗？

That's what we're doing. What do you think is gonna happen with destabilized regimes and people who are, you know, desperate? Where are they gonna go? Is that gonna reduce the is that gonna reduce the push towards our border?

对委内瑞拉进行漂亮的政权更迭，推翻马杜罗政府。是的，那会把很多人送往北方。

A nice regime channel and toppling of the newer government in Venezuela. Yeah. That will send a lot of people north.

他们完全没有解释为什么不能只是拦截那艘船。对吧？为什么不能直接拦截——

They've they've offered no explanation for why they couldn't just interdict the boat. Right? Why couldn't they just interdict

那艘船？

the boat?

持枪的人跳上船，说，把你所有的毒品交出来，你们都得跟我走。逮捕他们。

Men with guns jump on the boat, say, give me all your drugs, and you're all coming with me. Arrest them.

是啊。因为我们知道船的位置。所以我们把船上所有人都杀了。而且，你看，就像你之前提到的搜查令错误一样，他们想用语言时就随便用，你刚刚把船上的人称为“毒品恐怖分子”。我不知道这个词是什么意思。

Yeah. Because we were aware of where the boat was. That's how we killed everyone on board. And and, look, like, we just like, to your point about the warrant error earlier, like, we just watch this language come to me whenever they want, and you just described the people on this boat as narcoterrorists. I don't know what that term means.

我知道在墨西哥或南美国家，在毒枭暴力横行的语境下它意味着什么。但在这个语境下我不知道它是什么意思，因为我不觉得那些开着快艇运毒的毒枭头子——不，不是他们。所以你们炸死的是参与严重犯罪的人，我们确实在努力应对这个问题，但这些人就该死吗？然后他们就说，哦，他们是毒品恐怖分子。

I know what it means in the context of, like, the the brutality of living amongst drug cartels in in Mexico or South American country. I don't know what it means in this context because I I don't I don't think it's the the fucking kingpins on the speedboat No. Running the drugs between between countries. It's and so you're you're blowing up people that are part of a of a serious crime that we have a huge problem in trying to address, but but, like, these are the people that deserve to die. And, like, and they just say, like, well, they're narco terrorists.

所以，是啊，他们可以死。我们可以杀他们。我们可以从天上杀了他们。

So, yeah, they can they can die. We can kill them. We can kill them from above.

为什么不呢？他们就搞出这套流程，比如，我们把你们定为恐怖分子，只要你们属于“特伦达拉瓜”。然后我们发一道秘密指令，说军方可以杀掉这些属于帮派的恐怖分子。马杜罗跟帮派有联系。于是你就，像串珠子一样，串出一条法律授权链，然后就开始杀人？

Why not? And they just they lay this process where, like, we get to designate you a terrorist if you're part of Trondarragua. Then we do a secret directive that says the military can kill these terrorists who are part of these gangs. Maduro is connected to the gang. So you just, like, you create this daisy chain of legal justification or authority in air quotes, and then you just start killing people?

对。不，就这么简单：我们觉得这个人坏。他们做了你觉得可怕的事，因为你觉得贩毒很坏，坏人就是坏，所以我们杀了他们。所以如果你觉得我们杀他们不对，那你一定爱毒贩。

Yeah. No. It's as it's as simple as we think this person's bad. They did something horrible that you think is horrible because you think drug trafficking is bad and and bad people are bad, and so we killed them. And so if you think that it's bad that we killed them, then you must love drug drug traffickers.

对吧？我们一句话都不能信他们。最初，《纽约时报》报道这事时，有个官员——我们上一期聊过——他以前在我们政府里负责禁毒事务，说，这听起来不对劲。

Right? And we can't believe a word that they say. Right? You know, at first, the the when the New York Times wrote about this, there was an we talked about this on on the last episode. There was an official who used to work on, sort of, in in the government in our government on narco trafficking and said, that doesn't seem right.

通常那可能是一船移民，也许不是。后来有实地报道来自委内瑞拉的那个小镇，船就是从那儿出发的，说，不，这大概是条运毒船。但问题是，他们早就把安德烈·罗梅罗·埃尔南德斯定为“特伦迪·阿拉瓜”，把他送到西科特去受酷刑，尽管他显然不是特伦迪。那现在政府告诉我们他们刚杀掉的谁是“毒品恐怖分子”，我们该怎么相信？

That usually that's that's probably a boat full of migrants and maybe not. And then there was actual reporting from the town in Venezuela where it left, it's like, Noah, this is probably a drug boat. But it's like, they already designated, Andre Romero Hernandez as as Trendy Aragua and shipped him off to Sikot to be tortured even though he was clearly not Trinidad. So how are we supposed to believe our government now when they tell us who's a narco terrorist that they just murdered?

这就是罗德里戈·杜特尔特在菲律宾对毒贩判死刑的模式，特朗普早就渴望

This is the Rodrigo Duterte Philippines model of death penalty for drug dealers, which Trump has long pined

并且谈论过。

after and talked about.

经常被提起。你看到那个了吗？我觉得是兰德·保罗发的，没错。作为回应，我觉得那帖子挺走心的，出自他的自由意志主义立场，我觉得说得非常对。

Talked often talked about. Did you see that what I think was Rand Paul posted Yes. In response. I thought it was, like, I kind of heartfelt and from his libertarian side that I thought was, like, exactly right.

嗯。

Yeah.

就像，哦，这就是我们军队的最高用途？这些是法外处决？

Like, oh, this is the highest use of our military? These are extrajudicial killings?

JD·万斯说，用军队去杀掉他指控犯罪的人，是最高最好的用途，我他妈不在乎。然后他说，他读过《杀死一只知更鸟》吗？对，就是那段。

JD JD, I don't give a shit Vance says killing people he accuses of a crime is the highest and best use of the military. Then he goes, did he ever read To Kill a Mockingbird? Yeah. That part

立马跳到哈珀·李，真快。

is Jump jump to Harper Lee so fast.

但他说的对。就像，你有没有想过，如果被指控的人在没有审判或辩护的情况下立刻被处决会怎样？对啊，听起来就有问题。

But he's right. Like, did you ever wonder what might happen if you accuse if he the accused were immediately executed without trial or representation? Like, yeah, seems like a problem.

我忘了白宫给兰德回了什么，但

And I forgot what the White House tweeted to Rand, but

大概是“你个怂货”之类的。

it was something like, you pussy.

就像我

Just like I

我没看到他们的回应。

didn't see their response.

像往常一样。哦，对了。哦，他们对兰德·保罗发火了。

As usual. Oh, yeah. Oh, they they went nuclear on Rand Paul.

嗯，兰德·保罗最近确实因为被取消野餐邀请而制造了整个媒体周期。

Well, Rand Paul did recently create an entire media cycle about getting disinvited from a picnic.

还记得吗？是约翰。

Remember that? Is Johann.

他被告知不能来参加

He's told he couldn't come to

国会野餐。

congressional picnic.

这话说得有理。复杂的人。说得好。嗯，有时候。

It's a fair point. Complicated guy. Good points. Yeah. Sometimes.

那个树叶的事怎么了？还记得他为树叶打架吗？

What happened with that leaf thing? Remember when got he got in a fight over leaves?

是啊。我不会那样做。我一直想知道。

Yeah. I'm not gonna do that. I always wondered.

从来没搞清楚发生了什么。

Never found out what happened.

是啊。不。不。从来没有。没人知道。

Yeah. No. No. Never. No one ever knows.

太糟了。好吧。我们好久没聊国会了，曾经被称为一个平等的分支。

Too bad. Alright. It's been a while since we've talked about congress, once once known as a coequal branch.

这个词从来就没道理。

A word that never made sense.

是啊。那是

Yeah. That is

那个“共同”啥也没干。

That co did nothing.

他们又上新闻了。嗯。他们之所以又上新闻，只是因为必须尽快履行他们仅剩的职责之一，给联邦政府拨款。资金在10月1日用完，这意味着停摆正式逼近。停摆正在逼近。

They're back in the news. Mhmm. They're back in the news only because they must soon fulfill one of their only remaining duties, funding the federal government. Money runs out on October 1, which means a shutdown is officially looming. The shutdown is looming.

有个逼近者。问题是，舒默的参议院民主党人会像3月那样提供足够票数来资助政府吗，还是会利用他们的筹码向特朗普和共和党人要求让步？敬请期待。埃兹拉·克莱因周末在《纽约时报》写了篇文章，他说，引用：我不会告诉你我绝对确定民主党应该让政府停摆。我不会。

Got a loomer. The question is, will Chuck Schumer's senate democrats provide enough votes to fund the government like they did back in March, or will they use their leverage to demand concessions from Trump and the republicans? Stay tuned. Ezra Klein wrote an essay in the New York Times over the weekend where he said this, quote, I'm not going to tell you I am absolutely sure Democrats should shut the government down. I'm not.

与此同时，加入共和党资助这个政府比反对失败更糟糕。这是共谋。民主党领袖有六个月时间来制定计划。如果有比停摆更好的计划，太好了。但如果计划还是什么都没有，那民主党需要新领袖。

At the same time, joining Republicans to fund this government is worse than failing at opposition. It's complicity. Democratic leaders have had six months to come up with a plan. If there's a better plan than a shutdown, great. But if the plan is still nothing, then Democrats need new leaders.

怎么看？如果你让政府停摆，就很难搞内幕交易从股市赚钱了。

Thoughts? If you shut down the government, it's really hard to insider trade and make money off the stock market.

我我我以为他摆出了一副严肃开玩笑的脸。

I I I thought he had a serious joke face going.

我觉得我说得不错。

Thought I made good.

那就好。已经送达了。

That's good. Delivered.

你要是关了政府，还怎么做高频交易？不，我挺喜欢——我读了Ezra的文章，我……我读了Ezra的文章，我完全认同他对问题的描述。

How are you gonna do high frequency trade if you shut down the government? No. I like, I've read Ezra's piece. I'm like I I read Ezra's piece. I'm a 100% with him on the description of the problem.

是的，对这个时刻的描述——“不能再一切照旧”“不能再给这个无法无天的政府背书”——可接下来呢？计划是什么？你懂我意思吧？就像，我们要越狱，那计划呢？

Yeah. Description of the moment, the idea that we can't do business as usual, that we can't legitimize this lawless administration, then it's like, what's the plan? You know what I mean? Like, we're gonna break out of prison. What's the plan?

因为我们的诉求到底是什么？最终目标是什么？我们想要啥？怎么倒推回去制定政治路线？我真的一点头绪都没有。

Because, like, what is our demand? What is the endgame? What do we want? What's the political plan to work backwards from there? I truly have no idea.

而且，他有一部分意思是——停摆会让媒体把注意力集中到事情本身的是非曲直上。我对此没太大信心，毕竟经历过几次停摆，我觉得媒体通常把它当成一场“打架”来报。我们这边也没有特别会打嘴仗的旗手。要是真在白宫草坪搞UFC，让Chuck Schumer对上特朗普去抢媒体眼球，我觉得我们赢不了。

And, like, I just he part of what he says is, like, I think the shutdown would focus the attention of the media on kind of, like, the merits of what's happening. I don't have a lot of faith in that having been through some shutdowns. Like, I think they tend to report on it as a fight. I also don't think we have great messengers who would be leading that fight. I'm not like, if we're doing a UFC match on the White House lawn and it's Chuck Schumer versus Trump in terms of, you know, getting the media's attention, I don't think we're winning that one.

所以我认同他，但咱们还有不少功课要做。

So, like, I'm with him, but I still think we have some work to do.

嗯。我看到论证结尾时就想：这说法要是能坐时光机回到六个月前，慢慢铺垫到现在，用来解释我们为啥该拍桌子走人就好了。Chris Murphy一直在外面发声——最早报道就说他是委员会里唯一反对妥协的孤票。我当时留了心，就去翻了他的话：‘每一天都有新证据表明我们的民主正在失灵；每一次我们跟着这些拨款法案走，都是在用两党合作的外衣，为非法程序背书，而这最终是摧毁民主行动的一部分。’

Yeah. Like, I get to the end of the the argument, and I think, man, this is a great argument for having a time machine and going back six months and figuring out an argument we'd slowly be making up until this moment for why we should walk away. Like, Chris Murphy's been out there, and this was in the original reporting about him being the kind of lone vote against compromise in the committee. And I went and pulled it because it stuck with me at the time, and he said every single day, there's new evidence that our democracy is failing. Every time that we go along along with these appropriation bills, we're putting a bipartisan veneer on the endorsement of an illegal process that ultimately is part of a campaign to destroy our democracy.

我只是……这确实是真的。

I just that is true.

这是——

It's a

个很好的观点。这句话没错。

good point. It's a true statement.

说得有道理。

It's a good point.

而且，你知道，我们经历了这场争论。

And, you know, we we went through this debate.

有时我会想，是不是只要这样就够了。

Sometimes I wonder if, like, that's all you need.

嗯，有可能。

Yeah. Could be.

这是唯一的解释。

That's the only explanation.

我发现，走到这一步，我依旧感到同样的不确定，我也担心那些本应带领我们度过任何停摆的人。我想，好吧，从战略角度看，正确的决定变得不确定。但道德上的论点却简单明了。如果我们不知道正确的策略，或者从战术角度不确定该怎么做，难道我们不应该立足于对局势显而易见的真相吗？

And I and I find that, like, I get to the end of this, and I feel the same uncertainty, and I worry too about the people that are meant to be our leaders through any kind of shutdown. And I think, okay. That makes the the right decision uncertain from a strategic standpoint. But the moral argument is simple and clear. And if we don't know the right strategy, we're not positive, or what the right thing to do is from a from a tactical standpoint, shouldn't we rest on what is obviously the truth about the circumstance?

嗯，所以我发现自己完全同意汤米你说的这些挑战。当然，我们没有更好的发声者，很遗憾。我也不认为有什么能让我们宣布胜利的好计划。一旦陷进去，我不知道怎么脱身。

Yeah. So I find myself agreeing with everything you said, Tommy, about, like, the challenges with this. Of course, we don't have better messengers, unfortunately. I don't think there's a good plan to do something that we could declare victory over. I don't know how you get out of it once you get into it.

我也确实觉得，正如埃兹拉所说，这是一次“注意力事件”。我不认为这是——你说得对，它只会吸引一阵注意力，大概一周。然后谁知道呢？等到公园关门、人们拿不到支票时，也许注意力又回来了。

And I do think it's an, as Ezra puts it, an attentional event. I don't think it's I think you're right that, like, it's attentional for a while. Like a week. And then who knows? Now when when parks are closed and people aren't getting their checks, then maybe the attention comes in.

谁知道是好是坏？这取决于发声者，对吧？于是我开始推演下一步。那么，停摆的弊端是什么？

Who knows if it's if it's good or bad? And that depends on the messengers. Right? Then I'm trying to play out, like, an another step after that. So, like, what are the what are the downsides of the shutdown?

对吧？所以，民主党的支持率降到了我们有生以来最低。

Right? So, the Democratic Party has the lowest approval rating in since we've all been alive.

嗯。

Mhmm.

所以我不知道我们还能降到多低。我们我们会给你看，保罗。什么是的。我本来想说。这有点像特朗普总喜欢说的，你有什么可失去的？

And so I don't know how much lower we can get. We We'll show you, Paul. What yeah. I was gonna say. It's sort of like what Trump always likes to say, what do you got to lose?

对吧？

Right?

马克龙的民调是15%。

Macron's at 15%.

对。所以我们在2018年短暂地促成了政府关门，埃兹拉，不是他不提我们，但他谈到2018年因为梦想家而关门的那一周。还记得我们有华夫饼屋吗？我们有所有的工作人员。那些一直跟着我们的人，你们会记得的。

Right. So we briefly contributed to a government shutdown in 2018, which Ezra, not he doesn't talk about us, but he talks about the 2018 shutdown over a week over the Dreamers. Remember we had the Waffle House? We had all the staff. Those of you who've been with us all this time, you'll You'll remember it.

结果没用。失败了。政府关门，然后很尴尬。民主党人做了他们一贯的事，就是，是的，我们会关门，但现在我们紧张了，所以我们会重新开放。你知道，这对民主党来说是失败，但我们在中期选举中大获全胜。

And it didn't work. It was a failure. Government shutdown, and then it was embarrassing. The Democrats did usual thing, which is like, yeah, we'll kinda shut it down, but now we're nervous, so we'll open it back up. And, you know, it was a loss for the Democrats, but we kicked ass in the midterms.

没事的。而且那次离中期选举比这次更近，对吧？所以我正在想，我们在特朗普第二任期内作为政党并没有冒很多风险，我们也没有做出什么大动作。我不确定怎么摆脱这个局面，也不确定我们能否宣布胜利，但我确实想知道现在是不是该开始多扔点东西看能不能粘住。

It was fine. And that was closer to the midterms than this one is. Right? So I'm I'm trying to figure out what it's like we have not taken a lot of risks as a party, in the second Trump term, and we have not done any big moves. And I'm not sure how to get out of this one, and I'm not sure that we could declare victory, but I I do wonder if now is the time to start throwing a few more things at the wall to see if they stick.

我不知道。

I don't know.

我我但我

I I But I

我感觉我我我有同样的感觉。就像，我是的。

I feel I'm I'm I feel the same. Like, I'm Yeah.

我不会羡慕，也不会对那些持不同意见的人喷火。部分问题在于，民主党到底该传达什么信息？在政府关门时，我们到底想争取什么？我们在为什么而战？我们觉得自己有任何机会在这场关门中宣称胜利吗？就实际结果而言，我不太确定。

I don't envy like, like, I'm not I don't feel like spitting fire at the people that would disagree either. And part of the problem is what the democratic message should be, and in a shutdown, right, what are we going for? What are we fighting for? Where do we think there's any chance of us eking out a a claim of victory for the shutdown? Actual practical results, I'm not sure.

但问题的一部分在于，不只是我们觉得我们的领导人不会在白宫草坪上迎战。部分原因在于，我们的领导层没有像唐纳德·特朗普那样的选民基础。我不断回到这一点：我会想到那些不仅喜欢唐纳德·特朗普，而且热爱他的人，那些真正热情、积极参与特朗普及其事业的支持者。然后再想到民主党人，我觉得几乎没有民主党人拥有那样的支持基础。

But part of the problem is that it's not just that we don't think our leaders are gonna be up for that fight on the White House lawn. Part of it is that, like, our leadership doesn't have the same kind of, like, constituency that Donald Trump has. And I and I I I really have, like, keep coming back to this, which is, like, I I I think of all the people that don't just like Donald Trump but love Donald Trump, and that and that are really kind of just enthusiastic, engaged supporters of Donald Trump and his project. And then I think of Democrats. I think of how few Democrats have any kind of base of support like that.

我知道AOC有。我知道伯尼·桑德斯有。我知道巴拉克·奥巴马有过。我知道曼达尼正在建立这种基础。对吧？

I know AOC does. I know Bernie Sanders does. I know Barack Obama did. I know Mamdani is building that. Right?

但当我看到党的领导层时，我知道有人支持他们。我知道有人对任何对他们的批评感到不满。我们经常听到这些人的声音。对吧？但有没有一大群人真正热爱并愿意为查克·舒默、阿基姆·杰弗里斯以及民主党领导层而战？

But then I look at the leadership of the party, and I know there are people that support them. I know there are people that are frustrated by any kind of criticism of them. We hear about from them all the time. Right? But are there is there a sizable group of people that love and are ready to fight for Chuck Schumer and Akeem Jeffries and the leadership of the Democratic Party?

没有。没有。这部分是他们的错。但不全是他们的错。这是集体失败，没能构建一个能让人们兴奋、愿意成为那种传播者的共同故事，而这种传播者在政府关门时尤其重要，尤其是在网上。

No. No. And that's partially their fault. It's not all their fault. It's a collective failure to build a kind of collective story that gets people excited to be those kinds of messengers, which you need, especially online, in any kind of a shutdown.

甚至不只是热爱或支持他们，而是对他们有信心，觉得他们理解当下的局势。还记得上次我们都对查克·舒默很生气吗？他接受了《纽约时报》的采访，我觉得他又在说那种话，比如共和党内的“高烧”会退，你们不知道我在私下对同事说了什么。听到这些，你就会想，不，老兄，我觉得那不会发生。

And even just even shy of love them or support them, like, faith in them that they understand the moment. Because remember the last time we all got very mad at Chuck Schumer about this. He did, like, it was a New York Times interview with and and I think he sort of, like, was again doing that thing where they talked about how the fever was gonna break among Republicans, and you don't know what I say to my colleagues behind the scenes. And you hear that stuff, and you're just like, no, man. I don't think that's gonna happen.

而且，说到你提到的“风险厌恶”，我确实觉得，当佐拉姆·曼达尼在纽约市长竞选中赢得民主党初选时，你们却不肯背书他，这等于在向民主党基本盘传递一个信号。为什么？因为你的金主让你别这么做？到底发生了什么？还有什么可能的理由——因为

And, also, to your risk averse point, I mean, I do think, like, you are sending a signal to the Democratic base when Zoram Mamdani wins the Democratic primary in New York for the mayoral race, and you will not endorse him. Why? Because your donors are telling you not to? Oh, what what's happening here? What what what possible reason could there be for because

我们还在对安德鲁·科莫抱有希望。对安德鲁·科莫。

we're holding out hope for Andrew Cuomo. For Andrew Cuomo.

对吧？所以你说得对，人们不信任他们、对他们不兴奋，有些原因是不公平的，但也有些原因是相当公平的。

Right? And it's like yeah, man. So you're right. There are reasons that are unfair that people don't have faith in them or aren't excited about them, and there's some reasons that are quite fair that people do not have faith and are not excited by belief.

哦，我觉得大多数原因都相当公平。顺便说一句，关于那件事，我甚至不觉得那是像“哦，我的金主让我这么做”那么有逻辑。我觉得那是一种恐惧，害怕纽约某些选民群体。就是对任何偏离核心民主党中左信息的人，他们本能地感到不确定，害怕支持之后带来的后果。

Oh, I think I think most of the reasons are quite fair. And by the way, with that too, it's like, I don't even know that it's as logical as, oh, I'm hearing from my donors. I think it is a fear of some segment of their of the of the people that elect him in New York. Right? It's like a kind of an instinct against anyone who's outside of, like, a core Democratic center left message that they just feel unsure about and are afraid of the consequences of getting behind.

我们之前谈过，一个很大的问题是，民主党人有时候表现得好像这是紧急状况，特朗普在巩固独裁权力。然后有时候又像今天一切都很好，无所谓。丹上周刚写了一篇留言框，说民主党的分界线是，你是否相信我们正处于紧急状态？如果他们全力以赴，有一件事就是说我们不会给这个政府拨款，因为他正在做的事情，他对每个美国人征收了非法的关税，他用我们的税款占领我们自己的城市，用我们自己的军队。

We we have talked before about how one of the big problems is that Democrats sometimes act like this is an emergency and Trump's, dictators, you know, consolidating authoritarian power. And then sometimes it's like, everything's fine today and whatever. Dan just wrote a message box about this, I think, last week, which was like the dividing line is and with Democrats is, do you believe we're in emergency or not? If they are all in for this, the one thing that's saying we're not gonna fund this government because this is what he's doing and, you know, he's placed an illegal tax on every American with a tariff. He, he's using our tax dollars to, occupy our cities with our own military.

他用我们的税款建立一支秘密警察部队，到处抓人。对吧？你可以说，我们不拨款。就像墨菲说的，我们不干这个，这是紧急状态，我们要开始——或者说继续——像对待紧急状态一样行动。你明白吗？

He's, using our tax dollars to create a secret police force that's rounding people up. Right? And and you could say that and be like, we're not funded. Like, basically what Murphy said, we're not doing this, and this is an emergency, and we're gonna start acting and and we're gonna not start, but we're gonna act like it's an emergency. You know?

我能理解。挑战在于，全部47名参议院民主党人和众议院所有民主党人，还有每位州长，都必须一致行动。不能有人一边说“嗯，不过……”。我想听听你们的看法。有人建议——你们也能看到一些民主党策略师、民调专家、参议员正聚集在这个想法上——好吧，咱们让政府关门，但把斗争焦点放在延长《平价医疗法案》的补贴上，因为医疗是最好的议题，民调最有利。如果我们把关门理由说成“要是他们得逞，大家的保费都会涨”，那肯定是个民调利器，我们肯定占理。你们觉得拿这个当关门的理由怎么样？

And I I could see that. The the challenge there is all 47 senate democrats and all however many in the house have to go along with that and every governor. And you can't have some being like, yeah, well Now, I wanted to know what you guys think about this. One of the suggestions is, and you can see the democrats calling some democratic strategists, pollsters, senators coalescing around this is, alright, let's make let's shut it down, but let's make the fight about, extending the ACA subsidies because health care is the best issue, the best polling issue, and if we have a fight about, yeah, the reason we're shutting the government down is because they're gonna, if if they get their way, everyone's premiums are gonna go up. Now, for sure, great polling issue, I'm sure we're on the right side of that, is that what do you guys think about that as the reason to shut down the government?

从实质上讲，我们是在为美国人民做好事；从政治算计上讲，我们是在帮他脱困，帮他避开本来会砸在他头上的锅，他大概率会因此被指责。

I think on the merits, we're doing a good thing for the American people. On the political, hackish political view of it, we're bailing him out. We're helping of him avoid something bad that would happen that he probably would have gotten blame for.

哦，你是说，如果我们赢了，其实——对，那倒是。

Oh, you're saying, like, if we win on that, it's really yeah. That's good.

是啊。这感觉就像——我们找到了民调最好的说辞：美国人不想看到军队上街，美国人想要更便宜的医保，对吧？

Yeah. It has the feeling of you know, we found our best testing messages. We don't Americans don't want troops in our streets. Americans want more affordable health care. Right?

这句话民调好看。可我们过去十年一次次手握胜辩、最佳信息、正确政策、漂亮民调，却一次次输掉，难道还没学到点什么？这里是不是缺了点什么？我——这算是个边缘案例，因为那是值得争取的好东西，我们应该争取，而且确实能赢，我明白。

And that line pulls well. But haven't we have we not learned anything from a decade of losing while having the winning argument and the best message and the right policies and the and the winning polling story over and over and over and over again? Isn't there something missing here? I and I this one is a kind of an edge more of an edge case because that's a great thing to fight for. That's a great thing that we should fight for, and it's actually something where we could win.

我明白。

I see it.

如果我们真的关门，我觉得这应该成为信息的一部分——

If we do the shutdown, I think that should be part of the message no

无论如何。

matter what.

当然。

Of course.

它应该是唯一的信息吗？我也为此担心。

Should it be the only message? I worry about it too.

我……我确实这么觉得。它就是不真实，感觉假，就像你找了个看起来安全、人人都能支持的东西。

I I do. It just feels inauthentic. It feels fake. It just feels like you looked for something that felt safe that everybody could get behind.

我今天早上跟某人说过，但我现在能看到结局了：查克·舒默和哈基姆·杰弗里斯在记者会上宣布胜利，说他们把奥巴马医保补贴延长了十八个月，金额比以前少，还要资产审查；而背景里，ICE正把更多人塞进货车。

I said this to someone this morning, but, I can see the end of this now. Chuck Schumer and Hakim Jeffries declaring victory at a press conference for getting an eighteen month extension on ACA subsidies that are smaller than they were before and means tested while in the background, ICE is just throwing more people into a van.

听起来没错。

That sounds right.

是啊。而且还有军队，他们也在背景里，喊着‘我们做到了’。

Yeah. That's and and there's the troops too. The troops are in the background too, they're like, we did it.

然后有张图，特朗普发了个AI图，把自己画成牵着舒默的项圈，像《低俗小说》里的囚奴。

There's a picture and there's a and Trump and Trump posts AI of himself having Schumer on a leash like a gimp in Pulp Fiction.

但你知道吗？但你知道吗？接着我们做信息测试，大家都说：‘哇，民主党这次赢了，共和党在医疗议题上落后三十个点。’

But you know what? But you know what? Then we get the message testing out, and everyone's like, boom. Democrats won on this one, guys. Republicans are now 30 points underwater on health care.

于是昂首走向中期选举。

So march off to the midterms.

真凄凉。真凄凉。我知道。

It's bleak. It's bleak. I know. And I

讨厌喜欢，我说是的。它很受欢迎。我明白。你说得对。这对人们来说是真正正确的事情，去，喜欢，去争取ACA补贴。

hate like, I yes. It's popular. I get it. And you're you are right. It is the actual right thing to do for people To, like, and to to fight for ACA subsidies.

但还有很多其他风险，如果我们认为这个政府是非法政府，是威权接管之类的，那就他妈的像对待非法政府一样行动。

But there's a lot of other risks out there, and this government, if we think it's an illegal government and that's authoritarian takeover and all that stuff, then fucking act like it.

我们不会从我们需要获得认可的人那里得到任何认可。就像，是的。

We're not gonna get credit from the people we need to get credit from on any these stuff. Like, yeah.

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I know. I know. It's it's tough. Pod Save America is brought to you by Armra. Why are elite athletes, business moguls, and high performers using Armra Colostrum?

Armra 初乳是自然界的第一种全食物，含有 400 多种生物活性营养素，在细胞层面发挥作用，帮助建立瘦肌肉、加速恢复并提升表现，且不含人工刺激物或合成垃圾。无论您是在经营企业、刻苦训练，还是只是想获得优势，Armor 都能为您的身体优化至巅峰输出。益生菌和其他补充剂被宣传为肠道健康解决方案，但市场上的大多数产品在到达肠道之前就已经死亡。Armor 初乳天然强化整个肠道壁系统，优化全身微生物组，有助于抵御可能引发消化问题和损害免疫系统的刺激物。研究还表明，初乳有助于增强营养吸收。

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那就是 armra.com/cricut。我们可以因为一件事让政府关门，爱泼斯坦文件。

That's armra.com/cricut. One thing we could shut the government down over, the Epstein files.

好的。好

Okay. Good

好转换。因为众所周知，这一切都是对爱泼斯坦文件的分散注意力。周一，就在我们进录音室前不久，众议院监督委员会民主党人说他们已经拿到了。看，谁说民主党人什么都做不了？他们拿到了著名的爱泼斯坦生日簿和其他来自爱泼斯坦遗产的文件。

good pivot. Because as we know, this is all a distraction from the Epstein files. On Monday, not long before we got into the studio, the House Oversight Committee Democrats said they've gotten a hold. See, who said Democrats can't do anything? They got a hold of the famed Epstein birthday book and other files from the Epstein estate.

不久之后，他们发布了FBI线人唐纳德·特朗普写给爱泼斯坦的现在著名的信件图片，上面画着一个裸体女人的形象。副白宫办公厅主任泰勒·布特维奇立即发推文称，信中显示的签名不是特朗普的，尽管它看起来几乎与他用名字签名私人便条的所有其他情况一模一样。另外，爱泼斯坦幸存者丽莎·菲利普斯告诉我们的《What a Day》通讯，她和她的同伴幸存者正在编制的爱泼斯坦名单将包括30到50个爱泼斯坦同伙的名字。尽管她强调，在很多情况下，他们不知道被点名的人是否知道正在发生的虐待，还是只是经常出入的亿万富翁。你们怎么看那个臭名昭著的涂鸦？

Shortly after that, they posted the image of FBI informant Donald Trump's now famous letter to Epstein with the figure of the naked woman drawn over it. Deputy White House chief of staff Taylor Butwitch immediately tweeted that the signature shown in the letter isn't Trump's, even though it looks nearly identical to all the other times he signed personal notes with just his first name. Separately, Epstein survivor Lisa Phillips told our What a Day newsletter that the Epstein list that she and her fellow survivors are compiling will include 30 to 50 names of Epstein associates. Though she stressed that in a bunch of cases, they don't know whether the people they're naming knew about the abuse going on or whether they were just billionaires who hung around a lot. What do guys make of the infamous doodle?

而特朗普仅仅通过说这是骗局、是假的就能让丑闻消失的可能性，就这些。

And the chances that Trump can just make the scandal go away by saying that it's just a hoax. It's just fake. That's it.

这是幅恶心的涂鸦，看起来像——怎么称呼——一个未成年女性？像个被低估的女孩，还没有手臂。大家还在争论那签名是不是故意画成阴毛。

It's a gross doodle. It looks like an under what's not called a woman? It like an underrated girl. There's no arms also. There's a debate about whether the signature is intended to be pubic hair or not.

真恶心，我们居然在讨论这个就够恶心了。另外，不知道你们看到没，《华尔街日报》现在还有张照片，有人举着一张海报大小的22500美元支票，被伪造成像是特朗普给爱泼斯坦的。下面手写了一行字：“杰弗里早期就展现金钱与女人天赋，把一名被涂黑名字的女性以22500美元全折旧价卖给唐纳德·特朗普”。

That's gross. The fact we're having this conversation is gross. Also, don't know if you guys saw this. The Wall Street Journal also now has a photo of someone holding up a poster board sized check for $22,500, which has been mocked up to appear that it was sent from Trump to Epstein. Beneath it, it there's a handwritten caption that says, Jeffrey showing early talents with money plus women sells fully depreciated name of a person that's been redacted to Donald Trump for $22,500.

所以——是的。还有——

So Yeah. There's a

这玩笑挺逗，但对我来说——

So that was a funny joke, but to me

伪造的支票，内容是特朗普把一个女人卖给他。我现在才从你这儿明白过来。真恶心。

Mocked up check of Trump selling him a woman. I had see now. I'm learning that from you now. It is disgusting.

对，他们还把笔迹拿去跟其他信件比对，结果全是克林顿说的。现在所有该死的MAGA网红、媒体、还有福克斯的人，可能连白宫都在晒特朗普连名带姓的签名，当然跟只签名的缩写看起来不一样，然后就说‘我们抓到他了，抓到他了’。

Yeah. They also they also the journal also compared the handwriting, of course, to other letters that he signed, and it's all Clinton saying has all the fucking asshole MAGA influencers and media types and everyone on Fox probably now in the White House, they're all showing signatures of Donald Trump with his full first name and last name, which, of course, look different than letters that he signs with just his first name and say, we got him. We got him.

这太蠢了，他们居然想靠“签名对不上”就说这是伪造。你的意思是《华尔街日报》跟不知道谁串通，搞了个大阴谋，假装特朗普十五年前写了这封信？

This is so this is so asinine that the idea that they're gonna that they're gonna claim that the signature doesn't match, and therefore it's a forgery. So you're saying that the Wall Street Journal in cahoots with God knows who went into this giant scheme to pretend Donald Trump wrote the letter for a decade and a half.

对，他们说二十年前就有人给特朗普下套——把这张东西塞进生日簿里，想着也许哪天特朗普会当总统，这就会成为他的麻烦——

Yeah. They're saying that twenty years ago, Donald Trump that Donald someone planted this Yes. In the birthday book thinking that maybe someday Donald Trump would become president, this would become a problem for

于是这场持续多年的超级破坏行动，居然没人多走一步去查特朗普私人信件怎么签名？除了这最后一步他们全做了。我还挺欣赏《华尔街日报》真的在逗特朗普，把他私下写给希拉里·克林顿、爱泼斯坦和乔治·康威的签名都登出来，我超爱这段。

him. And so this extraordinary act of of sabotage has that which has been going on for so long that no one involved in this scheme had the wherewithal to go look up the way Donald Trump signs his name in personal letters. Like so they did everything except that last tiny little step. I do appreciate that The Wall Street Journal is really trolling Trump by showing that the the way he signed his name personally to Hillary Clinton, Epstein Mhmm. And George Conway, which I fucking love.